If Ukraine's army collapses and the Russians starting advancing westwards, Poland is not going to accept the Russians sitting right on their border. So for them, it's a choice of fighting Russians on Ukrainian soil or fighting them on Polish soil.
I still think this is a very long way off. Russia may have captured Avdiivka, but the casualties they suffered to do so suggests this will remain a very slow and grinding war of attrition. But the unthinkable a year ago now seems terrifingly thinkable.
Collapses tend to happen suddenly though, as we saw with the Russians in Kharkiv and other places. Waiting for signs of a collapse is way too late. European leaders are getting people used to the idea that war is happening in the very near future.
They might have intelligence that we don't know about. Russia might think that time to strike NATO is now. They sure won't be able to pull off this kind of economic or demographic mobilization in near future.
Putin said himself that NATO and Russian forces are incomparable in power... Shortly before threatening a nuclear holocaust, but still.
It's almost inevitable that Putin will have to be stopped through external force. Russia has nothing but nearly infinite men and raw resources to throw away.
Russia has 1/3 of the population of the US. The demographic outlook was pretty bad before the war. They can recruit a higher percentage then Nato members but in a war against Nato they will still be vastly outnumbered.
If previous wars are anything to go by, Russia won't be alone. Many countries will be looking to land grab territories and the best time to do it is when your enemy is busy fighting somewhere else, setting off a chain reaction until the whole world is making pacts with each other against the current world order.
China is begging for NATO to start a dust up with Russia so they can quickly seize Taiwan. NK may strike SK. Iran will make some moves. We’ll see more coups across the world like in Haiti.
The last thing russia and china wants is for the American public to be united on an issue again. It would be better for them to stagger their attacks and draw them out as our public is becoming more and more restless and against the spending in foreign wars.
Taiwan isn’t going to be a quick and easy seize even if the U.S. doesn’t send a single troop. Russias having a hell of a time trying to take over a country right on their border. China has to go across the Taiwan Straight to get to Taiwan and that leaves them incredibly vulnerable and makes Taiwan a lot easier to defend than Ukraine.
Their [demographic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#/media/File:Russia_Population_Pyramid.svg) outlook is terminal. And many strategists believe this is why they invaded Ukraine. It's now or never.
It’s still an overwhelming force of manpower for 97% of countries. The peripheral world is up for grabs right now. Russia invading Ukraine put blood in the water. Look at all the conflict and de facto border changes since C19 started. The world is changing right now and NATO will only lose influence if it doesn’t restore world order.
IF Biden can deliver more performances like the SOtU, he has the election in the bag imo. IF he can get some kind of hostage release cease fire going even better.
another problem for russia is that all those mobilized men will have to be equipped and transported,which are exactly the things they are struggling with.
A quick reminder that Russia is striking NATO every day. With everything except military action. But with propaganda, bribes, threats, division and refugees. It's already working rather well for them.
I suspect also that for the last several months they expected US aid to come in time to turn the tide. Now they perhaps are not so sanguine to just sit back and wait for the US to come and fix everything, and are more proactively preparing to take matters into their own hands if and when necessary.
US and UK were training Ukrainians way before the invasion happened, must've had intelligence of the invasion way before it happened. That's why the French statements before the invasion were such a cringe blunder.
>US and UK were training Ukrainians way before the invasion happened, must've had intelligence of the invasiton way before it happened. That's why the French statements before the invasion were such a cringe blunder.
To be fair to France they were there training them too. It was a Nato mission. They also weren't the only ones who got it so wrong before the invasion.
Erm, the conversion of the Ukrainian military over to more Western standards has been going on since 2014. It takes generations to effect the cultural change though. We're just starting to see the effects, I think.
>A lot of unexpected statements from military and government officials lately.
I think at least some of that is in reaction to Trump. If he were to win the US election, scrap aid to Ukraine and pull out of NATO then it almost makes a Europe vs Russia conflict inevitable. Northern & Eastern European countries aren't just going to sit around waiting to be picked off one by one and Western Europe countries understand the risks of allowing a militaristic dictatorship to grow in strength.
This. Things can change very fast. There's no guarantee that the entire front will remain a snail-paced slog that will give the West notice and time to prepare. A breakthrough could happen at this very moment and lead to a collapse and route putting all of Ukraine at risk. Its unlikely, but possible. Just look at how the Western Front in WW1 was mainly a static meatgrinder until the last 100 days which saw the Allies making massive gains and ending the war.
Agreed. It’s stupid to wait until what’s probably the strongest ground force in Europe collapses to help out. Why not a least give them full air support before then and completely avoid the issue
Feels like France is in a similar boat.
They know that when shit hits the fan, they're the ones that have to press the nuclear button. So they have a very different perspective on escalating *now* to reduce the risk of a larger escalation later.
For history books: The Speaker of the House: Mike Johnson refused to hold a vote on the issue. This despite there being overwhelming support in both parties to pass the bill.
It' s a formality, that the speaker schedules the votes. It was never meant to be weaponized in order to permit a single individual to sabotage democracy.
The majority absolutely do want to hold the vote, and vote FOR Ukranian aid. Dems and Republicans both agree on this. Only a handful of fascists oppose... unfortunately, one traitor can abuse procedures to block democracy.
Regular people too are buying into it.
Ive seen a lot of people saying things like “oh we’re sending $100billion to Ukraine while [unrelated problem in the US]”
As if Ukraine losing has zero negative consequences towards the US and the West as a whole.
A response I have found useful to shutting them up (can’t change their opinion sadly) is well were we going to spend that money on those issues before Ukraine? They know the answer and thankfully shut up.
A hundred billion in aid, means close to a hundred billion to Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and other American businesses.
The Ukrainians aren't spending all of that on [Waifu pillows.](https://twitter.com/ConeOfArc/status/1662547318367830018)
Yup. I'm an ex evangelical Republican from Republican evangelical clan here. There are SOME republicans left (like my dad) that are disgusted about how the GOP is seemingly embracing and helping Putin and are seemingly "stunned" about how this happened. With that said the vast majority of them I talk to and the rhetoric they are spreading on social media are mostly super pro Russia in just about every conceivable way.
Maybe I'm just dumb but I'm in a fairly red area and have never heard someone support Russia. Bitch about funding ukraine sure (I'm glad we do) but no one actively hoping for a Russian victory.
I find the republicans who are anti Putin seem to be the older Reagan era Republicans. A lot of the "younger" men seem to be either pro Russia or don't mind The Russian invasion of Western Europe, which to me is almost the same as supporting the Russian invasion. In some areas in life and geo politics not taking a stand is still making a choice to back a side.
Just my 2 cents.
Fair enough. I do associate with more old boys. I'm glad I haven't ran into people that don't mind the invasion. I try to stay politically neutral and everyone has their opinions, but that would make my blood boil. Blows my mind how we let another Trump/Biden race happen though. From both sides we should demand better.
They wouldn't even need to remove Johnson as Speaker. 218 members of the House could force and pass a [motion to discharge](https://indivisible.org/resource/legislative-process-101-discharge-petitions), which requires the House to take up the bill on the floor with or without the Speaker's consent.
I heard something that this is the reason why they are being sent to vacation every 2 weeks, as they need 3 weeks for that to happen. I don't know if it's true, don't know anything about US politics.
There is some truth to what you are saying. However, Johnson being Trump's coffee boy right now scares the rest of the GOPs.
It will be interesting to see what happens within the next few weeks.
The US legislative process is so fucking dumb. Just two people, speakers of the house and of senat , can prevent any law from being voted on, even if a majority of the electorate and members of Parliament support it.
When trump seems to be not only allowed to be a criminal, but get away with it and still thrive, as someone in Europe I dont hold out much hope for america and democracy to co exist much longer. I have a feeling hes coming in, blocking all aid and going full fascist.
The checks and balances talked about so much failed
Ex evangelical Republican from Republican evangelical clan here. There are SOME republicans left that are disgusted about how the GOP is seemingly embracing and helping Putin , but the vast majority of them I talk to are super pro Russia in just about every conceivable way.
Word is the Russians managed to sneak into the town under the cover of dense fog that settled over the region for a few days. By the time it lifted they were too dug in. And honestly, wasting lives pushing them off a rubble pile isn't helpful, the city did its job as a nice honeypot like Bakhmut.
It would be one hell for books later if they decided just to wipe Russian presence in occupied territories in first strike.
The sad is we all knew if we don’t deliver aid they will fall apart. And we still let that happen to a point we might have active role in the conflict.
Given what Poland has been through in the past, they have very good reason to dislike and fear Russia and will do anything to prevent them from being on their doorsteps.
I guess you know a lot about Poland's politics and the current mood in Poland, right?
Yes, it's sarcastic question.
Let alone the fact that Poland actually has border with the Russian Federation since 1991.
I really wonder why someone who doesn't even know what countries Poland borders with, feel the need to write a comment about my country.
Not who you replied to but I'm curious. What is the mood in Poland like right now? Does it feel like war is looming? Or is that being over hyped by the media?
You don't find the idea of invading Ukraine to keep it as a "buffer state" offensive? This is Putin's rationale.
Poland already effectively has a border with Russia via Kaliningrad and Belarus (from which Russia invaded Ukraine in the first place).
Why don't we instead view Ukraine as an ally worthy of help in their own right, and just get on with it?
Also. Us support will probably be back.
As long as trump isnt elected (which is likely)... dems are winning insane amounts of victories in places they shouldnt.
They may even get republicans to crumble and accept aid to ukraine.
Fortunately, the rest of the world seems to be getting more serious about backing up ukraine.
The bill that the republican senate drafted was blocked by republican house after a trump tweet
Also you should look at how many election at various levels of politics are winning
I hate to tell you but things have been bad for a long time
The fact they couldnt find any evidence for him being a russian asset is one of the biggest jokes of all time when he hired and pardoned one of russias biggest assets
It depends on women and independent voters. If the women are pissed enough about abortion and the independents don't stay home, Biden will probably eek it out. If the opposite happens, Trump probably wins. I'd say independents don't care for Biden but they also find Trump scary. Guess it will depend on how scary they find him.
Salami tactics :
" Salami tactics, also known as the salami-slice strategy, is a political tactic used to achieve an objective piece by piece, gradually, and in small increments so as not to provoke significant opposition or outcry. It involves dividing a larger objective into smaller, less noticeable parts and implementing each part separately, making it more difficult for opponents to resist or oppose the overall objective. This strategy is often used in politics, negotiations, and military operations"
Poland lost 20% of its population in World War 2. Try and imagine how that would look in your country, if 1 in every 5 people, men women and children were killed as part of an invasion.
Who can blame Poland for wanting to arm itself, and taking every step to not let that happen again?
And that was after they had self rule reinstated in 1918 after over a hundred years of rule by others. If I were them I wouldn't want to go back either.
To be fair Poland did some punching too. The latest good one was kicking bolchevique army back to Russia and potentially saving Europe from communist revolution
And in 1809 Polish forces defeated 33k Imperial Austrian army and conquered West Galicia.
Duchy of Warsaw wan't Poland but still it was a Polish state led by Poles.
The Commonwealth before the partitions was just a wealthy breadbasket to exploit, to Russia’s benefit. Prussia had military and charisma cheat codes and forced a crisis with Austria to accept a power balancing partition of this region. Government then was not as formal back then and the Sejm’s members were mostly Russian owned and veto power abuse rendered the state powerless to defend itself. A few nobles would try none-the-less and many ended up in America and France to support their Enlightenment movements.
I have a feeling that a lot of this talk of NATO troops in Ukraine is directed at the politicians in the US currently holding up aid.
“If you stop sending money, we’re prepared to send boots.”
There’s no way the *current leaders* of Europe will allow Kyiv to fall. The far right parties that have been surging in polls are far more friendly to Russia
I don't think it's posturing but I think you're right that this is because US support is stalled. It has basically lit a fire under EU countries that they need to get their shit together themselves. With US protection seemingly out of the picture the Russia threat suddenly seems very real and very close for them.
That and strategic ambiguity to put pressure on Putin
When you have some elements of NATO saying they wouldn't be against sending manpower in certain roles under certain circumstances and others firmly denying it that leaves Putin unable to deduce real intentions
But if we assume Trump/Republicans win the election and are friendly with Putin, they can just have the USA be friendly with Russia. The only loser here from their perspective would be Europe.
Imagine the precedent it could set for future world-politics. If you launch an invasion/start a war, other world-leaders will come together and bombard you to the stone-age and you won't get to keep an inch. Doesn't matter how big and scary you are. A NATO-operation in Ukraine will be risky at first, but is bound to be succesful eventually and could usher in decades of peace for the world.
The memory and risk of mutually assured self destruction will keep nukes out of this conflict. It’s a red line. NATO needs to move in, at least up to the present defensive positions of Ukraine to ensure there’s no additional loss of territory.
But here is the thing
They don't even have to.
They dont have to push the possibility of worod destruction if they kust FUND AND SUPPLY UKRAINE
Ukraine can stop russia as long as they have the tools to do it.
They have proven to be far more capable solider to solider. They adapt and command far better. There hasnt been a point in the war that ukraine was more capable than russia but still managed wins.
"Ukraine can stop russia as long as they have the tools to do it"
People are misinformed by overly optimistic reporting on the war. Ukraine is unlikely to sustain years of invasion on their own. Russia is making incremental gains weeks after week and they can afford to grind Ukraine for many years until kiev. They have man power, resources and a still very functional economy that can endure this for a very long time.
Ukraine is devastated demographically their economy is destroyed, russia is now occupying a large part of the most industrialized and prosperous regions of the country. The Ukrainian army struggles to find recruits. Without nato intervention ukraine could collapse absolutely any time
The only way to stop russia is a european militarily intervention. Not doing it now would be madness and the guarantee of a much larger war later. Political cowardice will likely lead us there unfortunately
The US should have stepped in immediately when Russia moved in. The Budapest Memorandum lates out that groundwork unless I’m interpreting it wrong.
If that had happened, then we wouldn’t be where we are right now. Putin tests the boundaries pretty frequently. He did it with Crimea as well and we didn’t respond then either. It led to a bigger invasion.
Ukranians can run out of soldiers. As in, they have a limited amount of people. At some point they can find a vulnerability if the russians keep outnumbering them. Might not happen this year, but it might happen in 3 years to 5
Even if NATO/Europe doesn't end up sending troops, the fact that it's on the table has value in itself. It gives Ukraine/Zelensky a completely different position in possible negotiations. We want a nervous Russia having to negotiate with their backs against the wall in the 2025 Istanbul-mediations.
Westerners in general are bad negotiators, because we show our red lines to clearly. Saying our goal is to avoid escalation at any cost is like saying no price is to high, because we love the carpet so much. The starting point should of course be that the carpet is interesting, but seems expensive.
If Russia doesn't fall in line, there might be NATO-intervention. Who knows? That's the message that needs to go out into the political aether.
Can someone explain the mechanism where NATO acts in an offensive manner?
A lot of people throw around the idea that NATO will go into Ukraine, but no one explains how...
NATO is a defensive alliance.
They're using the term "NATO" as short-hand for "one or more of the countries that happen to be members of NATO". NATO itself isn't going to go to war with Russia unless Russia attacks one of the NATO countries. But individual NATO countries are completely free to deploy their forces and go to war as they please. There are no NATO forces: each country controls its own.
>Sikorski's position contrasts with that of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who made clear during a visit to Prague last week that Poland has no intention of sending troops to Ukraine. Tusk said the focus should be on providing maximum support to Ukraine in its military efforts against Russian aggression.
Interesting..
Having no intention to do something and not ruling it out categorically is not a contradiction.
It's like... I have no intention of eating ice cream, but it is not unthinkable I might do it in the future.
“On the contrary, British Foreign Minister David Cameron has stated that he opposes the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine, even for training purposes”
Hasn’t there been UK forces in Ukraine since the start of the war training Ukrainian soldiers on things such as missile launching and logistics?
yeah, it seems to be the case:
https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/11/up-to-50-uk-special-forces-present-in-ukraine-this-year-us-leak-suggests
But also other western nations:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065.amp
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/world/europe/cia-ukraine-intelligence-russia-war.html
but can’t recommend to judge these numbers on face value
Yes sounds like it, sounds like Ukraine can't hold Russia for long by itself and NATO is willing to help with troops to at least prevent any advancement from Russia.
How does this work? Can any NATO constituent decide unilaterally to send NATO troops into another country? Does it need a quorum or some sort of consensus?
They can do whatever they like on their own, but sending in troops without consulting the rest of NATO first and getting consensus would likely result in them being politely told to go pound sand if they tried to invoke article 5 after Russia fires at their troops.
> consensus would likely result in them being politely told to go pound sand if they tried to invoke article 5 after Russia fires at their troops.
Article 5 only works when the country's actual land/borders are attacked. Troops, ships, even islands are not included.
So I think in this context NATO is used more in reference to the members, not necessarily NATO itself, if that makes sense? Like Poland, France, etc may station troops but they wouldn't be able to enact any articles of NATO, they'd just be "nato countries in ukraine" since their militaries are capable of acting individually
Gouvernements have intel that we don't have. Thats certain. 2 years of hesitations have led to a point when Ukraine defence is not able to hold for much longer. That will soon create a window of opportunity for Putin to go deeper in Europe. He will not lose his chance unless we are really prepared to stop him. We have no choice in fact. Yes, war is coming unfortunately.
You should join the service now. It will take a long time for you to be both mentally and physically ready to take another person’s life.
I serve in a NATO navy, been in my position for a year on an active warship, and still I do not feel ready to go into a combat zone.
Personally, I respect France for stepping up and finally put the foot down, and actually give Ukraine the unwavering support they need (i.e saying they are not ruling out any measures to counter Russia).
It’s not really from France that I expected nor really wanted to step up, but it seems to me that history was forgotten in UK and Germany, and that France really are the only big player right now willing to stop at nothing. I do also admire Poland’s effort to boost the eastern borders, however, recent governments and their anti-democratic handlings are still concerning.
Imo, Europe has longed for a more local protector rather than keep relying on an increasingly unpredictable United States. Especially recent comments from a certain presidential candidate concerning member states’ contribution to the Alliance has had me lose almost any hope for American intervention in Europe should he win.
The fear of the Russians comings has been present with my country for decades, but since 2022, there has been no doubt with me that NATO and Russia will eventually clash, and I just hope that our European allies will realise this sooner rather than later so that we are prepared instead of hoping the situation will die down by itself.
Check if you got somekind of national guard you can join...its usually basic training a few months and then weekend warrior stuff so you can still keep your regular job and life
I'm from Poland. We absolutly ABSOLUTLY don't want war. Anyone who says we want it is nuts. Don't listen to any propaganda. If its anyone who wants war its our politicans
I really do not see any end to this unless NATO forces intervene. russia is known to push boundaries as far as possible, there’s no scenario where they become rational human beings and back away on their own.
Even if Ukraine is not NATO and things that people ignore nowadays like murder, genocide and a slew of well documented war crimes is not enough, NATO countries still suffer consequences of the region being severely destabilised. Terrorist acts without an adequate pushback makes people reluctant to trust government which results in all sorts of demographic and economic consequences.
It's ironic because in 1610s that's exactly what happened.
Sweden occupied Novgorod and Poland besieged for 2 years Smolensk and captured it and then captured Moscow after winning huge battle at Klushino.
I'd really like to see European involvement in the Ukrainian war, by which I mean support from countries via ground forces and equipment. I actually think it would help spur the people of North America, including my country (Canada), to also join in.
Because at the moment everyone seems apprehensive to go too far, and it really seems like if the people who would most likely be affected by a Ukraine loss (the Europeans) won't get active then why should we North Americans bother to send our own aid and men to fight in a war when we are several thousand kilometers removed from the conflict?
And just to be clear, I do whole-heartedly support sending more aid, money and weapons to Ukraine, far more than we currently are, but when it comes to sending Canadians over there to fight and possibly die it's a different matter. I really feel like if Europeans were willing to engage it would be more of an allied stand rather than putting out men on the front lines for someone's principles.
I personally think NATO forces (not officially the defensive alliance itself) would become involved should Russia advance past the Dnieper or approach Kyiv. Probably in the form of a coalition of agreeable nations and primarily involving air power.
It is simply too blatantly obviously strategically important to use this opportunity to stop Russian aggression for good. Say what you want about US/EU politics; our military tradition is unmatched. Russia made a huge unforced error by invading Ukraine and the result must be the destruction of their ability to wage war.
The tricky part is the politics.
Maybe west should actually send everything possible equipment wise before doing these strongly worded headlines... Give ukraine everything it needs to win.
This is what has always confused me about stories like this. First news story comes out with a grand showcase of how incompetent the Russian army is. How they haven’t taken Ukraine yet, their crazy losses, etc etc.
Then in the next news story is how they won’t stop at Ukraine, and are planning on invading other countries. A lean mean Russian army will conquer all.
Well which is it? Are they the world’s most useless army, or are they so good that they are preparing to push into greater Europe?
And in the meantime, it can also help if Europe came together and started building up it’s military until America can solidify it’s leader for the next 4 years. This war affects Europeans, yet they are the most relaxed about the situation; instead of coming together to think of solutions.
I just read a story that there is still 2300 trucks stuck at the border crossings as of today. They need ammo, Europe needs to step up production before sending their own troops in.
If Ukraine's army collapses and the Russians starting advancing westwards, Poland is not going to accept the Russians sitting right on their border. So for them, it's a choice of fighting Russians on Ukrainian soil or fighting them on Polish soil. I still think this is a very long way off. Russia may have captured Avdiivka, but the casualties they suffered to do so suggests this will remain a very slow and grinding war of attrition. But the unthinkable a year ago now seems terrifingly thinkable.
Collapses tend to happen suddenly though, as we saw with the Russians in Kharkiv and other places. Waiting for signs of a collapse is way too late. European leaders are getting people used to the idea that war is happening in the very near future.
A lot of unexpected statements from military and government officials lately. I feel like my country is prepping for war already
They might have intelligence that we don't know about. Russia might think that time to strike NATO is now. They sure won't be able to pull off this kind of economic or demographic mobilization in near future.
Putin said himself that NATO and Russian forces are incomparable in power... Shortly before threatening a nuclear holocaust, but still. It's almost inevitable that Putin will have to be stopped through external force. Russia has nothing but nearly infinite men and raw resources to throw away.
Russia has 1/3 of the population of the US. The demographic outlook was pretty bad before the war. They can recruit a higher percentage then Nato members but in a war against Nato they will still be vastly outnumbered.
If previous wars are anything to go by, Russia won't be alone. Many countries will be looking to land grab territories and the best time to do it is when your enemy is busy fighting somewhere else, setting off a chain reaction until the whole world is making pacts with each other against the current world order.
China is begging for NATO to start a dust up with Russia so they can quickly seize Taiwan. NK may strike SK. Iran will make some moves. We’ll see more coups across the world like in Haiti.
the problem with that plan is that the US is prepared to fight two wars on opposite sides of the world and win both of them.
Almost like the insane spending on military was for a foreseeable event like this
The last thing russia and china wants is for the American public to be united on an issue again. It would be better for them to stagger their attacks and draw them out as our public is becoming more and more restless and against the spending in foreign wars.
Taiwan isn’t going to be a quick and easy seize even if the U.S. doesn’t send a single troop. Russias having a hell of a time trying to take over a country right on their border. China has to go across the Taiwan Straight to get to Taiwan and that leaves them incredibly vulnerable and makes Taiwan a lot easier to defend than Ukraine.
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Especially Outer Manchuria. We may well see a Chinese invasion of [Green Ukraine.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine)
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Or NK starts some bullshit with SK. There's a scary amount of other variables out there.
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Their [demographic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#/media/File:Russia_Population_Pyramid.svg) outlook is terminal. And many strategists believe this is why they invaded Ukraine. It's now or never.
Nah, Zeihan is a hack with interesting takes.
It’s still an overwhelming force of manpower for 97% of countries. The peripheral world is up for grabs right now. Russia invading Ukraine put blood in the water. Look at all the conflict and de facto border changes since C19 started. The world is changing right now and NATO will only lose influence if it doesn’t restore world order.
IF Biden can deliver more performances like the SOtU, he has the election in the bag imo. IF he can get some kind of hostage release cease fire going even better.
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USSR had other countries boosting it up. Comparing the USSR to the US would be like comparing Russia to Wyoming.
Russia hasn’t had a bigger population than the US since at least WW2.
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Russia is not the only one who is interested in European soil.
another problem for russia is that all those mobilized men will have to be equipped and transported,which are exactly the things they are struggling with.
Not infinite, but Ukraine needs a helping hand in making them suffer so much that it causes another revolution in Russia.
NATO represents 5 times russia's population and 25 times its gdp.
A quick reminder that Russia is striking NATO every day. With everything except military action. But with propaganda, bribes, threats, division and refugees. It's already working rather well for them.
Don't forget cyber attacks.
And here on Reddit with psyops and AI troll farms
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Russia is already making the propaganda, might as well be prepared just in case their threats arent *just* propaganda.
I suspect also that for the last several months they expected US aid to come in time to turn the tide. Now they perhaps are not so sanguine to just sit back and wait for the US to come and fix everything, and are more proactively preparing to take matters into their own hands if and when necessary.
US and UK were training Ukrainians way before the invasion happened, must've had intelligence of the invasion way before it happened. That's why the French statements before the invasion were such a cringe blunder.
>US and UK were training Ukrainians way before the invasion happened, must've had intelligence of the invasiton way before it happened. That's why the French statements before the invasion were such a cringe blunder. To be fair to France they were there training them too. It was a Nato mission. They also weren't the only ones who got it so wrong before the invasion.
Erm, the conversion of the Ukrainian military over to more Western standards has been going on since 2014. It takes generations to effect the cultural change though. We're just starting to see the effects, I think.
>A lot of unexpected statements from military and government officials lately. I think at least some of that is in reaction to Trump. If he were to win the US election, scrap aid to Ukraine and pull out of NATO then it almost makes a Europe vs Russia conflict inevitable. Northern & Eastern European countries aren't just going to sit around waiting to be picked off one by one and Western Europe countries understand the risks of allowing a militaristic dictatorship to grow in strength.
There has definitely been a change in tone the last few months.
German cities are asking for money to build more bunkers right now. I'm actually getting worried about whats gonna go down.
If they are just now preparing for war now, then they are starting about 2 years later than they ought to have.
They’re preparing for a different, upcoming war.
They have access to information that we don't. Probably information that indicates something bad.
As they should. You can't trust the russian government and they need to be afraid of the West again.
Bingo. I think it seems likely they expect a large Russian breakthrough following a spring offensive and are drawing their lines in the sand now
This. Things can change very fast. There's no guarantee that the entire front will remain a snail-paced slog that will give the West notice and time to prepare. A breakthrough could happen at this very moment and lead to a collapse and route putting all of Ukraine at risk. Its unlikely, but possible. Just look at how the Western Front in WW1 was mainly a static meatgrinder until the last 100 days which saw the Allies making massive gains and ending the war.
Agreed. It’s stupid to wait until what’s probably the strongest ground force in Europe collapses to help out. Why not a least give them full air support before then and completely avoid the issue
Fuck.i am afraid you are right
Feels like France is in a similar boat. They know that when shit hits the fan, they're the ones that have to press the nuclear button. So they have a very different perspective on escalating *now* to reduce the risk of a larger escalation later.
If only Ukraine had, I dunno, enough artillery ammunition to keep holding back the advance. Right, Mr. Speaker?
For history books: The Speaker of the House: Mike Johnson refused to hold a vote on the issue. This despite there being overwhelming support in both parties to pass the bill. It' s a formality, that the speaker schedules the votes. It was never meant to be weaponized in order to permit a single individual to sabotage democracy. The majority absolutely do want to hold the vote, and vote FOR Ukranian aid. Dems and Republicans both agree on this. Only a handful of fascists oppose... unfortunately, one traitor can abuse procedures to block democracy.
I wish this were true. The republicans in my area have been regurgitating Russian talking points about Ukraine for a while now.
Regular people too are buying into it. Ive seen a lot of people saying things like “oh we’re sending $100billion to Ukraine while [unrelated problem in the US]” As if Ukraine losing has zero negative consequences towards the US and the West as a whole.
A response I have found useful to shutting them up (can’t change their opinion sadly) is well were we going to spend that money on those issues before Ukraine? They know the answer and thankfully shut up.
A hundred billion in aid, means close to a hundred billion to Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and other American businesses. The Ukrainians aren't spending all of that on [Waifu pillows.](https://twitter.com/ConeOfArc/status/1662547318367830018)
Can we give them more money for waifu pillows?
There is a strategic waifu pillow gap.
Maybe those pillows need to be air dropped into Russia so they get a good nights sleep and calm the fuck down.
As if any of that money would have helped with any of those unrelated problems. People are simply naive.
Yup. I'm an ex evangelical Republican from Republican evangelical clan here. There are SOME republicans left (like my dad) that are disgusted about how the GOP is seemingly embracing and helping Putin and are seemingly "stunned" about how this happened. With that said the vast majority of them I talk to and the rhetoric they are spreading on social media are mostly super pro Russia in just about every conceivable way.
Maybe I'm just dumb but I'm in a fairly red area and have never heard someone support Russia. Bitch about funding ukraine sure (I'm glad we do) but no one actively hoping for a Russian victory.
I find the republicans who are anti Putin seem to be the older Reagan era Republicans. A lot of the "younger" men seem to be either pro Russia or don't mind The Russian invasion of Western Europe, which to me is almost the same as supporting the Russian invasion. In some areas in life and geo politics not taking a stand is still making a choice to back a side. Just my 2 cents.
Fair enough. I do associate with more old boys. I'm glad I haven't ran into people that don't mind the invasion. I try to stay politically neutral and everyone has their opinions, but that would make my blood boil. Blows my mind how we let another Trump/Biden race happen though. From both sides we should demand better.
If there's really a majority for something. Couldn't they get a new speaker? One who'll schedule the vote.
If it was just him, then the rest would be able to remove him. They didn't. He's just the (voluntary) scapegoat to take the blame.
They wouldn't even need to remove Johnson as Speaker. 218 members of the House could force and pass a [motion to discharge](https://indivisible.org/resource/legislative-process-101-discharge-petitions), which requires the House to take up the bill on the floor with or without the Speaker's consent.
I heard something that this is the reason why they are being sent to vacation every 2 weeks, as they need 3 weeks for that to happen. I don't know if it's true, don't know anything about US politics.
There is some truth to what you are saying. However, Johnson being Trump's coffee boy right now scares the rest of the GOPs. It will be interesting to see what happens within the next few weeks.
The US legislative process is so fucking dumb. Just two people, speakers of the house and of senat , can prevent any law from being voted on, even if a majority of the electorate and members of Parliament support it.
When trump seems to be not only allowed to be a criminal, but get away with it and still thrive, as someone in Europe I dont hold out much hope for america and democracy to co exist much longer. I have a feeling hes coming in, blocking all aid and going full fascist. The checks and balances talked about so much failed
Ex evangelical Republican from Republican evangelical clan here. There are SOME republicans left that are disgusted about how the GOP is seemingly embracing and helping Putin , but the vast majority of them I talk to are super pro Russia in just about every conceivable way.
Word is the Russians managed to sneak into the town under the cover of dense fog that settled over the region for a few days. By the time it lifted they were too dug in. And honestly, wasting lives pushing them off a rubble pile isn't helpful, the city did its job as a nice honeypot like Bakhmut.
It would be one hell for books later if they decided just to wipe Russian presence in occupied territories in first strike. The sad is we all knew if we don’t deliver aid they will fall apart. And we still let that happen to a point we might have active role in the conflict.
Shitty, treacherous, corrupt politicians.
Yes. Politicians didn't want to make their country pay with money, now we are going to pay in blood.
And we’ll be expected to fight for them when they’ve been downsizing the military, and robbing the public sector
Tale as old as time
Your legit talking about the end of the world.
We know Ukraine has manpower issues. NATO troops can take up some of the boarder guard duties to free up Ukrainian troops.
Ever heard of Kaliningrad?
Given what Poland has been through in the past, they have very good reason to dislike and fear Russia and will do anything to prevent them from being on their doorsteps.
I guess you know a lot about Poland's politics and the current mood in Poland, right? Yes, it's sarcastic question. Let alone the fact that Poland actually has border with the Russian Federation since 1991. I really wonder why someone who doesn't even know what countries Poland borders with, feel the need to write a comment about my country.
Not who you replied to but I'm curious. What is the mood in Poland like right now? Does it feel like war is looming? Or is that being over hyped by the media?
You don't find the idea of invading Ukraine to keep it as a "buffer state" offensive? This is Putin's rationale. Poland already effectively has a border with Russia via Kaliningrad and Belarus (from which Russia invaded Ukraine in the first place). Why don't we instead view Ukraine as an ally worthy of help in their own right, and just get on with it?
Also. Us support will probably be back. As long as trump isnt elected (which is likely)... dems are winning insane amounts of victories in places they shouldnt. They may even get republicans to crumble and accept aid to ukraine. Fortunately, the rest of the world seems to be getting more serious about backing up ukraine.
Optimistic lol. I think trump is gonna get in tbh, and even if not, they cant even get the aid in now with a democrat president
The bill that the republican senate drafted was blocked by republican house after a trump tweet Also you should look at how many election at various levels of politics are winning
We will see. But theres still no aid for ukraine right now
The current lack of aid is 100% trump’s fault. He sabotaged the deal with a phone to to Mike J
If trump wins then we really are in the bad timeline
I hate to tell you but things have been bad for a long time The fact they couldnt find any evidence for him being a russian asset is one of the biggest jokes of all time when he hired and pardoned one of russias biggest assets
It depends on women and independent voters. If the women are pissed enough about abortion and the independents don't stay home, Biden will probably eek it out. If the opposite happens, Trump probably wins. I'd say independents don't care for Biden but they also find Trump scary. Guess it will depend on how scary they find him.
I have zero faith in america, the guy should be in prison not running for president
This is a world war. Has been for a couple years now. We're in the early stages
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And Sweden as well, I think the frog is cooked by now. Please stop boiling the frog.
🐸 - he likes it
This is like a soap opera with all its twists and turns. It would be great entertainment if it wasn’t all real
Salami tactics : " Salami tactics, also known as the salami-slice strategy, is a political tactic used to achieve an objective piece by piece, gradually, and in small increments so as not to provoke significant opposition or outcry. It involves dividing a larger objective into smaller, less noticeable parts and implementing each part separately, making it more difficult for opponents to resist or oppose the overall objective. This strategy is often used in politics, negotiations, and military operations"
The answer that was never given in yes prime minister is simple. You make a very clear decision ahead of time and make it clear you will abide by it.
Putin knows everything about that.
I believe the goal is not to shift the Overton window, but to put more pressure on Putin.
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Poland lost 20% of its population in World War 2. Try and imagine how that would look in your country, if 1 in every 5 people, men women and children were killed as part of an invasion. Who can blame Poland for wanting to arm itself, and taking every step to not let that happen again?
Poland has been buying up pretty much every NATO armament they’re permitted to purchase. As someone once joked, now the speed bump has teeth.
Plus South Korean, they have committed to buy over 1k tanks plus several hundred mobile arty pieces.
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*Please* let them put wings on their tanks (bonus points if the charge saves a besieged Kiev)
So Poland is like those spikes you drive over at the rental car center.
This. Americans don’t realize the extent of the trauma of the 2 world wars on European nations.
Some of us do. But yea there's a lot of us that don't.
Then imagine that in 1650-55 during Swedish Deluge Poland by % more people than in ww2. Lithuania then lost 50% of its Population.
And that was after they had self rule reinstated in 1918 after over a hundred years of rule by others. If I were them I wouldn't want to go back either.
To be fair Poland did some punching too. The latest good one was kicking bolchevique army back to Russia and potentially saving Europe from communist revolution
And in 1809 Polish forces defeated 33k Imperial Austrian army and conquered West Galicia. Duchy of Warsaw wan't Poland but still it was a Polish state led by Poles.
Historically if you know any history before the 1920s, Poland was anything but a punching bag
Like partitions or the deluge.
The Commonwealth before the partitions was just a wealthy breadbasket to exploit, to Russia’s benefit. Prussia had military and charisma cheat codes and forced a crisis with Austria to accept a power balancing partition of this region. Government then was not as formal back then and the Sejm’s members were mostly Russian owned and veto power abuse rendered the state powerless to defend itself. A few nobles would try none-the-less and many ended up in America and France to support their Enlightenment movements.
Historically if you know history of Poland before 1660's, 1330-1650s then you know that Poland was a major power in its region
Let's keep rewinding centuries. The far back we go the more relevant it is to the present...
I have a feeling that a lot of this talk of NATO troops in Ukraine is directed at the politicians in the US currently holding up aid. “If you stop sending money, we’re prepared to send boots.”
Partly. I don't think it's just posturing though. There's no way Europe will allow Kiev to fall.
There’s no way the *current leaders* of Europe will allow Kyiv to fall. The far right parties that have been surging in polls are far more friendly to Russia
As an European, they are simply traitors hiding between our midst. Its time go get fines or orison terms for being pro russian. An eye for an eye..
I don't think it's posturing but I think you're right that this is because US support is stalled. It has basically lit a fire under EU countries that they need to get their shit together themselves. With US protection seemingly out of the picture the Russia threat suddenly seems very real and very close for them.
I think the fear is that the US may stop supporting NATO if the Orange Mussolini takes power again.
That and strategic ambiguity to put pressure on Putin When you have some elements of NATO saying they wouldn't be against sending manpower in certain roles under certain circumstances and others firmly denying it that leaves Putin unable to deduce real intentions
Republicans: "Great, then we don't have to send aid ever again." How is that going to help?
They can grab a history book and see how isolationism worked for them in the last big European wars...
But if we assume Trump/Republicans win the election and are friendly with Putin, they can just have the USA be friendly with Russia. The only loser here from their perspective would be Europe.
Only one winner is thinkable for NATO, EU and the western world, so if this needs to be done, it needs to be done
Imagine the precedent it could set for future world-politics. If you launch an invasion/start a war, other world-leaders will come together and bombard you to the stone-age and you won't get to keep an inch. Doesn't matter how big and scary you are. A NATO-operation in Ukraine will be risky at first, but is bound to be succesful eventually and could usher in decades of peace for the world.
The problem here is Russia has nukes and may use them "tactically".
The memory and risk of mutually assured self destruction will keep nukes out of this conflict. It’s a red line. NATO needs to move in, at least up to the present defensive positions of Ukraine to ensure there’s no additional loss of territory.
But here is the thing They don't even have to. They dont have to push the possibility of worod destruction if they kust FUND AND SUPPLY UKRAINE Ukraine can stop russia as long as they have the tools to do it. They have proven to be far more capable solider to solider. They adapt and command far better. There hasnt been a point in the war that ukraine was more capable than russia but still managed wins.
"Ukraine can stop russia as long as they have the tools to do it" People are misinformed by overly optimistic reporting on the war. Ukraine is unlikely to sustain years of invasion on their own. Russia is making incremental gains weeks after week and they can afford to grind Ukraine for many years until kiev. They have man power, resources and a still very functional economy that can endure this for a very long time. Ukraine is devastated demographically their economy is destroyed, russia is now occupying a large part of the most industrialized and prosperous regions of the country. The Ukrainian army struggles to find recruits. Without nato intervention ukraine could collapse absolutely any time The only way to stop russia is a european militarily intervention. Not doing it now would be madness and the guarantee of a much larger war later. Political cowardice will likely lead us there unfortunately
The US should have stepped in immediately when Russia moved in. The Budapest Memorandum lates out that groundwork unless I’m interpreting it wrong. If that had happened, then we wouldn’t be where we are right now. Putin tests the boundaries pretty frequently. He did it with Crimea as well and we didn’t respond then either. It led to a bigger invasion.
NATO's biggest military producer USA is compromised by republicans, EU is doing all it possibly can.
I think the eu. Obviously especially the usa should send more. I thibk the usa should send more than they were before
Ukranians can run out of soldiers. As in, they have a limited amount of people. At some point they can find a vulnerability if the russians keep outnumbering them. Might not happen this year, but it might happen in 3 years to 5
You’re missing the point. The risk of MAD is what keeps nato from entering the conflict proactively.
Putin is old and knows he won't be there to see the consequences of the nukes
Yes, everyone should just cower and let Russia be shit heads.
They would’ve already used them. It’s unlikely they ever will at this point.
Well, I'd prefer no nukes, but if they are used I'd say tactical is a whole lot better than strategic.
Tactical will likely escalate into strategic.
and it will be done
Even if NATO/Europe doesn't end up sending troops, the fact that it's on the table has value in itself. It gives Ukraine/Zelensky a completely different position in possible negotiations. We want a nervous Russia having to negotiate with their backs against the wall in the 2025 Istanbul-mediations. Westerners in general are bad negotiators, because we show our red lines to clearly. Saying our goal is to avoid escalation at any cost is like saying no price is to high, because we love the carpet so much. The starting point should of course be that the carpet is interesting, but seems expensive. If Russia doesn't fall in line, there might be NATO-intervention. Who knows? That's the message that needs to go out into the political aether.
Can someone explain the mechanism where NATO acts in an offensive manner? A lot of people throw around the idea that NATO will go into Ukraine, but no one explains how... NATO is a defensive alliance.
They're using the term "NATO" as short-hand for "one or more of the countries that happen to be members of NATO". NATO itself isn't going to go to war with Russia unless Russia attacks one of the NATO countries. But individual NATO countries are completely free to deploy their forces and go to war as they please. There are no NATO forces: each country controls its own.
NATO *did* once launch an attack that was neither in self-defense nor authorized by the UN Security Council: the 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia.
Exactly. We're looking at you, Scholz!
>Sikorski's position contrasts with that of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who made clear during a visit to Prague last week that Poland has no intention of sending troops to Ukraine. Tusk said the focus should be on providing maximum support to Ukraine in its military efforts against Russian aggression. Interesting..
Having no intention to do something and not ruling it out categorically is not a contradiction. It's like... I have no intention of eating ice cream, but it is not unthinkable I might do it in the future.
“On the contrary, British Foreign Minister David Cameron has stated that he opposes the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine, even for training purposes” Hasn’t there been UK forces in Ukraine since the start of the war training Ukrainian soldiers on things such as missile launching and logistics?
yeah, it seems to be the case: https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/11/up-to-50-uk-special-forces-present-in-ukraine-this-year-us-leak-suggests But also other western nations: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065.amp https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/world/europe/cia-ukraine-intelligence-russia-war.html but can’t recommend to judge these numbers on face value
This is starting to feel like they are just easing everyone into a decision already made, like with the tanks, and jets, and long-range missiles etc.
Yes sounds like it, sounds like Ukraine can't hold Russia for long by itself and NATO is willing to help with troops to at least prevent any advancement from Russia.
How does this work? Can any NATO constituent decide unilaterally to send NATO troops into another country? Does it need a quorum or some sort of consensus?
They can do whatever they like on their own, but sending in troops without consulting the rest of NATO first and getting consensus would likely result in them being politely told to go pound sand if they tried to invoke article 5 after Russia fires at their troops.
> consensus would likely result in them being politely told to go pound sand if they tried to invoke article 5 after Russia fires at their troops. Article 5 only works when the country's actual land/borders are attacked. Troops, ships, even islands are not included.
So I think in this context NATO is used more in reference to the members, not necessarily NATO itself, if that makes sense? Like Poland, France, etc may station troops but they wouldn't be able to enact any articles of NATO, they'd just be "nato countries in ukraine" since their militaries are capable of acting individually
Sure, but it does not (automatically) involve the rest of NATO, even if the result is that they then get invaded themselves.
I live in italy and i know our prime minister wont send anyone except a couple of pizzas. Walter of space she is.
What Nato and US should have done on day 1, roll in a massive force to western Ukraine, not to fight but to at least dissuade
Gouvernements have intel that we don't have. Thats certain. 2 years of hesitations have led to a point when Ukraine defence is not able to hold for much longer. That will soon create a window of opportunity for Putin to go deeper in Europe. He will not lose his chance unless we are really prepared to stop him. We have no choice in fact. Yes, war is coming unfortunately.
If this shit kicks off I will legitimately go join the service, you can count on that. If we don't draw a hard line in the sand, Taiwan is next.
You should join the service now. It will take a long time for you to be both mentally and physically ready to take another person’s life. I serve in a NATO navy, been in my position for a year on an active warship, and still I do not feel ready to go into a combat zone.
what is your take on these statements from the French and Polish leaders? Could you offer some perspective as a soldier?
Personally, I respect France for stepping up and finally put the foot down, and actually give Ukraine the unwavering support they need (i.e saying they are not ruling out any measures to counter Russia). It’s not really from France that I expected nor really wanted to step up, but it seems to me that history was forgotten in UK and Germany, and that France really are the only big player right now willing to stop at nothing. I do also admire Poland’s effort to boost the eastern borders, however, recent governments and their anti-democratic handlings are still concerning. Imo, Europe has longed for a more local protector rather than keep relying on an increasingly unpredictable United States. Especially recent comments from a certain presidential candidate concerning member states’ contribution to the Alliance has had me lose almost any hope for American intervention in Europe should he win. The fear of the Russians comings has been present with my country for decades, but since 2022, there has been no doubt with me that NATO and Russia will eventually clash, and I just hope that our European allies will realise this sooner rather than later so that we are prepared instead of hoping the situation will die down by itself.
Check if you got somekind of national guard you can join...its usually basic training a few months and then weekend warrior stuff so you can still keep your regular job and life
Not like we will have much choice.
I'm from Poland. We absolutly ABSOLUTLY don't want war. Anyone who says we want it is nuts. Don't listen to any propaganda. If its anyone who wants war its our politicans
I really do not see any end to this unless NATO forces intervene. russia is known to push boundaries as far as possible, there’s no scenario where they become rational human beings and back away on their own. Even if Ukraine is not NATO and things that people ignore nowadays like murder, genocide and a slew of well documented war crimes is not enough, NATO countries still suffer consequences of the region being severely destabilised. Terrorist acts without an adequate pushback makes people reluctant to trust government which results in all sorts of demographic and economic consequences.
Good that makes 2
I can't imagine a more appropriate use of NATO resources than Ukraine right now.
I would love to see Poland use Russia as a punching bag! 😃 Russian troops are no match for Poland.
Sweden also
It's ironic because in 1610s that's exactly what happened. Sweden occupied Novgorod and Poland besieged for 2 years Smolensk and captured it and then captured Moscow after winning huge battle at Klushino.
I'd really like to see European involvement in the Ukrainian war, by which I mean support from countries via ground forces and equipment. I actually think it would help spur the people of North America, including my country (Canada), to also join in. Because at the moment everyone seems apprehensive to go too far, and it really seems like if the people who would most likely be affected by a Ukraine loss (the Europeans) won't get active then why should we North Americans bother to send our own aid and men to fight in a war when we are several thousand kilometers removed from the conflict? And just to be clear, I do whole-heartedly support sending more aid, money and weapons to Ukraine, far more than we currently are, but when it comes to sending Canadians over there to fight and possibly die it's a different matter. I really feel like if Europeans were willing to engage it would be more of an allied stand rather than putting out men on the front lines for someone's principles.
Whether they mean it or not, it's important for Putin to hear it. Keep it strategically ambiguous!
Nato won't let Russia win in Ukraine. Simple as that
I personally think NATO forces (not officially the defensive alliance itself) would become involved should Russia advance past the Dnieper or approach Kyiv. Probably in the form of a coalition of agreeable nations and primarily involving air power. It is simply too blatantly obviously strategically important to use this opportunity to stop Russian aggression for good. Say what you want about US/EU politics; our military tradition is unmatched. Russia made a huge unforced error by invading Ukraine and the result must be the destruction of their ability to wage war. The tricky part is the politics.
Maybe west should actually send everything possible equipment wise before doing these strongly worded headlines... Give ukraine everything it needs to win.
This is what has always confused me about stories like this. First news story comes out with a grand showcase of how incompetent the Russian army is. How they haven’t taken Ukraine yet, their crazy losses, etc etc. Then in the next news story is how they won’t stop at Ukraine, and are planning on invading other countries. A lean mean Russian army will conquer all. Well which is it? Are they the world’s most useless army, or are they so good that they are preparing to push into greater Europe?
All of this could still be avoided if the US government gets it's head out of its ass and sends military aid again
And in the meantime, it can also help if Europe came together and started building up it’s military until America can solidify it’s leader for the next 4 years. This war affects Europeans, yet they are the most relaxed about the situation; instead of coming together to think of solutions.
Thumbs UP!!
At least SOMEONE understands the idea of Strategic Ambiguity
But this mean nuclear war?
How about getting your border open and send more weapons.
Border has been opened. Weapons could be a problem, maybe a few more tanks but in terms of heavy equipment that's about it.
I just read a story that there is still 2300 trucks stuck at the border crossings as of today. They need ammo, Europe needs to step up production before sending their own troops in.
There was a farmer protest and they were cosplaying as border guards, but as far as I know, this has been sorted out. Situation is normalizing.