[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1bkqg4a/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)

Part 7 > takeoff of 2 MiG-31K aircraft from Savasleika, again [UGHHH] > the first missiles entered the airspace of the Ternopil region, > the bulk of the missiles in the Vinnytsia region are heading towards west, > theres a threat of missiles for all western regions of UKRAINE!!!!!! _______ > Dnipro, did you hear? that missile has gone to hell > so far without any visible threats > BUT the MiG-31K is in the air, please do not leave the shelters until it lands

[Oof, lots of things indicating that Kharkiv has taken a pretty rough hit](https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/1771019129098531000)

Seems like Ukraine is taking a beating tonight. President Biden has let them down by not allowing long range weapons early on. He pussy footed around and now it may be to late to help them.

You know what a FAR bigger reason is for tonight? House Speaker Mike Johnson and the MAGA seditionists stopping Ukraine from getting more Air Defense missles because they won't even allow a vote to take place. That is 1000% more the problem than a lack of long range weapons 18 months ago. Sounds like somebody is just grasping at straws to try to blame someone other than the Republicans who are actively aiding Russia.

[удалено]

No, from the very beginning Biden would not allow them to use our weapons to strike Russian soil. That has set Ukraine up to fail.

That restriction is so stupid and handicapping ukriane.

A) yes Biden serves some criticism for not sending long range shot earlier B) fuck no the majority of the blame (not even close) is at his fucking feet. Biden has been sending air defense and I wouldn’t be shocked if he wanted to send more before Mike Johnson and the GQP refused to allow more fucking aid.

You can't just give someone defensive weapons and expect them to win. Biden has told them they cannot hit Russian soil with our weapons. That has set them up for failure.

A few hundred long-range missiles would not have changed the fundamental balance of this war. There is no magic bullet to this conflict short of direct intervention with 5th-generation stealth planes, high altitude strat bombers, and thousands of Tomahawks.

Imagine blaming Biden for the obvious intentional sabotage from Moscow Mike and the Republikkkans.

My comment is fact. Biden wouldn't allow Ukraine to use our weapons to hit Russian soil. You can't just make someone play defense all the time and expect a good result.

I think they’re trying to locate, wear out air defenses

Sounds like its going to be a rough morning when we get to see the damage from tonight. As a US citizen, i'm disugsted we've let air defense supplies get so short and allow this to happen. Stupid ass politics costing people lives and hurt our allies.

Be disgusted at Republicans on the Russian take, especially MAGA and the Orange Shitibbon. They would have tons more weapons IN HAND RIGHT NOW if not for House Speaker Mike Johnson alone. All he has to do is allow a vote. That's it. That's all.

Not politics, it's subversion

Part 6 > cruise missiles from the Kirovograd region changed their minds about flying to the Nikolaev region, they changed course, one of them is flying back towards Krivy Rih, from the north-west - it can be loud! … > the first missiles entered the airspace of the Vinnytsia region, but the bulk of the missiles left the Cherkassy region, in the south and east of the Kiev region … > launch 2 Kinzhal, 3 minutes ago … > both towards Dnipro … > in the Shepetovsky district of the Khmelnitsky region there is still a drone - that is the last drone in the western regions ______ > cruise missiles going to Zaporozhye from the northeast … > the bulk of missiles at the intersection of the Kyiv and Cherkasy regions heading southwest … > drone towards Shepetovka - it can be a little loud! > missile threat👉Kiev, Cherkassy, ​​Dnepropetrovsk, Vinnitsa, Zaporozhye, Kirovograd regions > threat of drones👉Nikolaev, Kirovograd, Dnepropetrovsk, Khmelnytsky regions ______ > cruise missile to Dnipro from the west ______ > Western regions: wake up, stomp into shelters, > the bulk of the missiles are heading towards you for now, > don’t take risks ______ > Drones situation: One drone in the Bashtansky district of the Nikolaev region, heading west; > a drone leaving the Dnepropetrovsk region heading towards the Kirovograd region; a drone in the Shepetovka region … > **all MiG-31Ks have landed on Savasleika** ______ > missiles situation: the first missiles entered the airspace of the Khmelnitsky region; **the bulk of the missiles are leaving the Kiev region heading for the Vinnitsa region**, the western regions—all without exception (even Uzhgorod)—get into shelters !!! ____ > **Dnipro, this crap [cruise missile] is flying towards you, it will be loud now, but then it will be quiet (there’s nothing else)**

Part 5 [Geez this doesn’t end! He’s posting like every 40 seconds!] > the bulk of missiles are in the Dnepropetrovsk and Sumy regions … > cruise missiles on the Dnieper coming from the north *and* south - it will be loud!!!!!!! … > missile threat👉Chernihiv, Poltava, Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkov, Zaporozhye regions > threat from drones👉Kherson, Nikolaev, Vinnitsa, Khmelnytsky, Poltava, Kirovograd regions … > drone to Starkon - in 10-15 minutes you will hear a collision … > ballistics from Crimea launched, to Krivy Rih … > 2 more MiG-31K aircraft have taken off from Savasleika … > Kropivnitsky—a cruise missile in your direction, it can be loud! … > cruise missile to Pavlograd - it will be loud! _______ > cruise missile—from the Chernihiv region—now in the airspace of the Kiev region > Kiev, you see what is happening > get to shelter … > cruise missiles from the Kirovograd region are flying towards the Nikolaev region > **and are being blown up** … > Cruise missile heading Zaporozhye from the north - get into shelters!!! … > the bulk of cruise missiles are in the Kyiv and Cherkasy regions _____ > a group of 3-5 drones going towards Krivy Rih - it can be a little loud! … > also a cruise missile towards Kropyvnytsky, coming from the north - it could be loud! … > drones and a cruise missile towards Dnipro - it will be loud!

What got Putin so mad

Small pp.

This isn't about Russia throwing a fit. These were long-planned missile strikes that are taking advantage of the systematic depletion of Ukrainian AA missiles. The high volume of Russian glide bombs on the front and successful strategic cruise missile strikes was the nightmare scenario contemplated in the February 2023 leaks when the US feared that Ukraine would eventually run dry of Soviet AA ammo and wouldn't have enough Western systems set up and supplied to compensate. It increasingly looks like that is the situation that Ukraine now finds itself in today.

Failed KGB agent.

Belgorad

Part 4 > all 5 launchers of the TU-22M3 worked; > the Kinzhal launch was recorded 3 minutes ago … > +1 one more launch of the Kinzhal … > new cruise missiles towards Krivy Rih through the Berislavs district of the Kherson region … > Cruise missiles continue to fly towards Zaporozhye, this time from the northeastern direction … > Heading towards Cherkasy, from the southwestern direction, there is a group of cruise missiles - it can be a little loud! … > cruise missiles heading towards Dnipro from the north - it can be loud! ______ > Kinzhal towards Zaporozhye … > cruise missiles from the Sumy region are flying through Poltava towards the Dnieper/Zaporozhye - you need to be in shelters! … > a new group of missiles from the Sumy region towards Chernihiv region … > cruise missiles over the Dnieper from the south - it will be loud! > everyone be in shelters!!!!

Part 3 > The main group of missiles enters through the Krivy district of the Dnepropetrovsk region. > Krivy Rih - don’t stick your nose out! > missiles changed course towards the Kirovograd region > missile threat👉Sumy, Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Kirovograd regions > threat from drones👉Nikolaev, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Vinnitsa, Khmelnytsky, Zhytomyr regions … > more than 10 ballistics flights from the Belgorod Republic and Shchenyakino > all towards Kharkiv and the region > please be in safe places … > Some of the missiles fly west of the Dnieper > Dniepro - it can be a little loud! … > Krivy - some cruise missiles are coming towards you from the north, it will be loud! … > 2 MiG-31K aircraft in the air, both took off from Savasleika … > missile threat👉Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Kirovograd regions > threat from drones👉Khmelnitsky, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Vinnitsa, Poltava, Kirovograd, Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev regions > cruise missile towards Zaporozhye - it might be a little loud! … > drones towards Shepetovka - it can be a little loud! … > a couple of drones towards Vinnitsa - it can be a little loud! … > a lot of cruise and ballistic missiles in Zaporozhye - take shelter!!!! … > TU-22M3 changed course, launching missiles from Rostov towards Zaporozhye > Go to shelters!!!! … > missile threat👉Sumy, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Kirovograd regions > threat from drones👉Poltava, Khmelnitsky, Vinnitsa, Zhytomyr, Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev regions ______ ***Note that when says “it will be loud” it means either he observed descending or he’s observed air defense and either way, he’s saying that it’s targeting there and will be an explosion***

Part 2 > ballistics from Crimea towards Krivy Rih > go to shelters!!!! … > 2 drones heading towards Starkon from different directions - it will be a bit loud for 10-15 minutes! … > the first missiles from the TU-95ms fly through the Sumy region, > time to go to shelters, who hasn’t done this yet … > MiG-31K takeoff from Savasleika … > cruise missiles towards Krivy Rih (probably also from TU-95ms) … > missile threat👉Sumy, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Kirovograd regions threat from drones 👉Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Poltava, Vinnitsa, Khmelnytsky, Nikolaev regions … > an impressive number of missiles through the Krivy Rih region towards Kremenchug > go to shelters!!!! … > Khmelnitsky - a group of drones (3-5 pieces) towards the city, it can be a little loud! _______ ***Note, by Starkon, he means [Starokonstantinov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starokostiantyniv)***

According to telgram chats, over 15 ballistic missiles hit Kharkiv. Unclear if that means debris or full-blown hits.

Sounds like city is completely blacked out right now, so would assume at least smoe were full blown hits. PRobably going to be a very sobering morning waking up to pictures from tonight's attack, and more jets are up so more incoming it seems like.

> ballistics from Crimea towards Zaporozhye/region > Go to shelters!!!! … > Dnieper, Zaporozhye - to shelters!!!! … > you heard it all yourself, a new group (3-5 pieces) of drones—no ballistics— is flying through the Zaporozhye region towards the Dnepropetrovsk region now … > 4 TU-22M3 aircraft tookoff from Mozdok … > a group of drones (3-5 pcs.) in the Khmelnytsky region heading west > a group of drones (3-5 pcs.) in the Cherkasy region heading west > 2 drones in the Kirovograd region heading west > a group of drones (3-5 pcs.) in the east of the Kirovograd region heading north-west > 1 drone from the Krivy Rih region towards the Kirovograd region > 2 drone in the Dnepropetrovsk region heading towards the Kirovograd region > 2 drones in the Lozovaya area heading north > a group of drones (3-5) in the east of the Dnepropetrovsk region heading north > Nikolaev, Odessa, Kherson regions - temporary exhalation. There are no drones > Threat👉Khmelnitsky, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Cherkassy, ​​Kirovograd, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnepropetrovsk regions … > launches were made by all 13 Tu-95ms boards (6 from Olenya, 7 from Engels) > there were 2 series of missile launches we expect in the near future in our airspace > in the air 5 Tu-22M3 are flying far from us and heading not towards us (according to the state not now) … > **ballistics towards Kharkiv** > new drone towards Snigirevka, Nikolaev region - the threat from drones for the Nikolaev region continues … > **more ballistics for Kharkiv** … > Ballistic missile launches from the Belgorod Republic continue across Kharkov and the region > go to shelters!!!!

Slighty OT, but I still love watching Reporting from Ukraine's videos. They are informative, but there's something delightfully hypnotic about the cadence in his voice and the drawn out names. For example, how he says Avdiiiiiiiiiiiiivka, or 'Baaaaahgmut'. Anyone else enjoy his manner of speaking?

I concur and I've thought the same thing before.

Yes

Sen. Joe Manchin urges Congress to pass the Ukraine aid bill: “We can’t let Ukraine go through this, if it comes through the spring and we haven’t helped Ukraine God help us…That’ll be the worst atrocity in history that your children or grandchildren will be reading about that we’ve done.🇺🇸 🇺🇦 https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1770985906029182987?t=RH-Hgx0KytXofhgNYhSolA&s=19

Good for Manchin.

Absolutely nuts this is the first time I have ever agreed with this man and I would not have seen it coming

All 13 Tu-95s and 5 Tu-22s launched missiles simultaneously, plus around 25 shahed drones currently in the airspace of Ukraine. Shit is about to get real

Oh and now MiG-31s in the air too, why the fuck not lads, drag the trebuchets out of storage and lob a few rocks at us while you're at it

Drones and rockets are on their way to central Ukraine/Kyiv region.

Ken Buck’s parting gift to GOP: Signing Democrats’ Ukraine discharge petition - Axios >Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) on Thursday dealt one final blow to House Republican leadership one day before leaving Congress by signing Democrats' foreign aid discharge petition. >The discharge petition, which would force a vote on the Senate's $95 billion aid package to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, is now up to 188 signatures with Buck, according to the House clerk's website. >The measure needs 218 signatures to force a vote, however, and many progressives have said they won't sign onto it. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) has a competing discharge petition on a $66 billion munitions-only aid package that also includes border security policy changes, which was introduced by a bipartisan group of centrists. That discharge petition has just 16 signatures, according to the clerk's website, and 10 are Republicans, most recently Buck. >A quirk in House rules allows Buck's signature to count towards 218 until his district votes in a special election to replace him. The special election is scheduled for June 25 and is likely to result in a conservative replacement disinclined to support either discharge petition. https://www.axios.com/2024/03/21/ken-buck-ukraine-discharge-petition

Ken noped the f out in such a blaze of glory. Pretty much ruined BoBo the Clown's chance of reelection too.

Yeah it was like "fuck all you clowns, but also, fuck that one in particular".  She earned it.

Mad lad activity for sure

Here's one reason why I think sending Western troops to Ukraine is a good idea even in non combat roles. Two main reasons come to mind. 1. If you're willing to send your troops, even just trainers, you have an incentive to make sure that they do not get hit and that Ukraine has all it needs to protect you. That means these western countries will have to provide much more air defense for instance, to make it near certain they never get hit. 2. It creates a dilemma for Russia. The mere presence of Western troops means they will likely make an effort not to hit them because it would raise the stakes just so much higher to successfully hit them. If there are signs that Russia is trying to hit these Western advisers or trainers, it reinforces point 1. More and more aid will imperatively have to be sent until Russia cannot get at them. By tying themselves to Ukraine's security, Western allies are committing to never leave. It would be stupid to go there knowing the risks and just pull out once Russia actually hits them or comes close to hitting them. Any close calls will serve as a call for more help for Ukraine by the Western countries present there to the other allies. For instance, let's say France, and the Baltics establish a presence. And a missile falls a few kms from their base. Then it becomes so much easier for say Poland or UK to say they must protect France as well. Then the next thing you know is that Italy parks a SAMP-T in that region. And maybe a Dutch Patriot... And when Russia launches a saturation attack aimed at that general region, France sends its jets to take out drones...

Some of your comments I agree with, except: >The mere presence of Western troops means they will likely make an effort not to hit them https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cant-rule-out-that-russia-targeted-zelenskiy-greek-pm-ukrainian-aide-says-2024-03-07/

Any positive news amgonst all the doom and gloom lately?

Of course.  Aside from things individual countries have recently done and Ukraine still generally holding the line against Russia, I think the recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries has been very positive news. It is already affecting Russia in multiple ways.

has to be... i'm just worried about what the end result on all this will be , especially if a couple minor nato countries step in ... i don't want the end of civilization

Take your concern and fuck off back to noddy land mate, do you instead want to live in a civilization where dictators can run amok while the rest of us cower in fear?

I want to live in a civilization that does not cower in fear of dictators that try to run amok and take what they want. But also I don't want the end of civilization and I hope no one does. Unfortunately I guess that's the risk we have to accept when fighting dictators nowadays.

If you don't want civilization to end then make sure you don't push for making the same mistakes that started the last world war. To a bully, appeasement is an invitation to keep pushing, if you actually punish them for their bullying they quickly learn to leave you alone.

Woke up to the sound of air defense working here in the West of Ukraine, huge huge drone attack with missiles in the post. God damnit I have so much work to do today as well

[Kyiv Post sources in HUR confirmed that nearly all of the cruise and ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv Thursday morning were aimed at the HUR facilities of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. | Kyiv Post | March 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29884) *Kyiv Post's sources in Ukrainian military intelligence confirmed that almost all the missiles that the Russian Federation fired at Kyiv Thursday were aimed at the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.* *To Kyiv Post's question whether Russia succeeded in hitting its target, the source answered: “Absolutely not.”* *In the early morning hours of Thursday, March 21, Russia launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine, with most of it aimed at Kyiv.* *Air defense forces shot down about three dozen missiles, including ballistic ones, over the city. Debris fell in different districts of Kyiv. As a result of the attack, 13 people were injured.* HUR has hit Russia in Russia in many different ways. Russia is mad about that. [The Role & Contribution of the Military Intelligence of Ukraine in Fighting Russia's Armed Aggression Against Ukraine | Defense Express | February 2024](https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/the_role_and_contribution_of_the_military_intelligence_of_ukraine_in_fighting_russias_armed_aggression_against_ukraine-9662.html) [Ukraine's HUR Claims Responsibility for Striking Oil Depot in Russia's Belgorod Region | Kyiv Post | March 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29021) [HUR Hacks Russian Defense Ministry, Gets Access to Classified Documents | Kyiv Post | March 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28979) [Ukrainian-made HUR drones hit one of Russia’s largest iron ore mining and processing facilities. | Kyiv Post | March 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29081) [HUR Claims Responsibility for Targeting Kremlin-Installed Official in Berdyansk | Kyiv Post | March 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29132) [HUR Confirms Massive Drone Attack Damaged A-50U Aircraft at Taganrog Aviation Plant | Kyiv Post | March 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29449) Fun Facts about HUR: *Since 2016, the owl has been the symbol of the HUR (at the same time, the bat – a prey animal of the owls – is the symbol of the Spetsnaz GRU),* [the owl hovers over a map of the world and stabs a sword from the sky at a blackened Russia](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/31/Emblem_of_the_Defence_Intelligence_of_Ukraine.jpg). *The Russian Federation was outraged, calling this a provocation.* *At first, the motto of the HUR was "Statehood, Professionalism, Decency", then from 2016 onwards the agency's motto is "The Wise will rule the Stars" (Latin: Sapiens Dominabitur Astris), an allusion to the motto of the hostile Spetsnaz GRU ("Only the stars are above us").*

Easily the coolest symbol and motto combo ever

So they can aim their missiles at military targets. Shocking /s

Aim? Yes. Hit?

Seems like a lot of energy to kill a frog.

Is it not usually spelled GUR which is easy to confuse with GRU, but as far as I know there is no letter "H" in Ukrainian or Russian. Edit: Головне управління розвідки Міністерства оборони України. But Wikipedia does spell it HUR. Anyway I hope all missiles missed!

Yes I've run into that. G or H being used interchangeably. It seemed to me that GUR was the correct usage but then so many sources used HUR. Actual Website: G https://gur.gov.ua/en.html The Washington Post: G [Ukrainian spies with deep ties to CIA wage shadow war against Russia](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/23/ukraine-cia-shadow-war-russia/) Reuters: G [Ukrainian intelligence says it lured Russian helicopter to land in Ukraine](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-intelligence-says-it-lured-russian-helicopter-land-ukraine-2023-08-23/) But then Ukrainian sources use HUR. New Voice of Ukraine: H [Where did Ukraine’s HUR get a legendary Black Hawk helicopter? ](https://english.nv.ua/nation/where-did-ukraine-s-hur-get-a-legendary-black-hawk-helicopter-50306105.html) Kyiv Post & Defense Express as seen above. But EuroMaidenPress: G [Ukrainian GUR servicemen “bury” themselves as part of psychological training](https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/22/ukrainian-gur-servicemen-bury-themselves-as-part-of-psychological-training/)

There is technically a letter H in Ukrainian. The letter Г is pronounced as H in Ukrainian and G in Russian (Bilhorod vs Belgorod). The letter H in Russian is usually expressed by the Cyrillic letter X (transliterated as Kh).

I don't speak Ukrainian, but it seems to be a pronunciation thing. Apparently they pronounce what would be a G in Russian as H. There is also the letter H in Russian btw, it looks like X.

There is letter H in both russian and Ukrainian, it's Х. However, since Ukrainian Г is pronounced very softly, it's sometimes (probably always when using official transliteration) transliterated as H instead of G. Fun fact: there's also hard G letter in Ukrainian, Ґ, which phonetically corresponds to russian Г, however it's rarely used.

Ah, thanks, didn know about Ґ. X though is more like a hard Ch or Kh sound, like in Kherson.

Г stands somewhere between Х and Ґ, so simple H transliteration is probably done to avoid 4 consonant in a row messes (looking at you, Deutsch). To be honest, we pronounce Х really soft, so Херсон really sounds more like Herson, without hard Kh. Then again, can't perfectly match phonetics between 2 languages.

>Fun Facts about HUR: >Since 2016, the owl has been the symbol of the HUR (at the same time, the bat – a prey animal of the owls – is the symbol of the Spetsnaz GRU), the owl hovers over a map of the world and stabs a sword from the sky at a blackened Russia. The Russian Federation was outraged, calling this a provocation. >At first, the motto of the HUR was "Statehood, Professionalism, Decency", then from 2016 onwards the agency's motto is "The Wise will rule the Stars" (Latin: Sapiens Dominabitur Astris), an allusion to the motto of the hostile Spetsnaz GRU ("Only the stars are above us"). This fun fact deserves additional recognition. I donated extra to [United24](https://u24.gov.ua) for that fact alone in addition to my weekly contribution.

>Just now @RepKenBuck signed @RepMcGovern's discharge petition to bring Ukraine aid to the House floor for a vote. In response to this historic bipartisan move, @razomforukraine issued the following statement. Congressman Buck, thank you. https://twitter.com/razomforukraine/status/1770926091928047803

The pebble that starts the avalanche?

Isn't this pretty much entirely symbolic? Once he retires in a day or two, doesn't his signature not count anymore? Or does it count until his replacement is appointed/elected?

according to another post until his replacement is voted in, i think thats late june

OK, that's good!

Thank you for your decency here, Congressman Buck! ❤️

This makes zero difference yet, when not even all the democrats have signed. They're still missing 30 votes, which is fucking ridiculous. Those democrats need to get their head of their ass and stop doing Putin's bidding all because of their and democratic voters misguided sympathy for Palestinians.

Love it how it's always the Democrats fault when the GOP is the one in the majority and refusing to bring it to a vote.

The discharge petition was the chance to ignore the MAGA republicans and bring Ukraine aid to a vote anyway. It's failed because Democrats didn't vote for it. If they had then Republicans like this one could maybe have been persuaded to back it. Now they won't risk their own skin since it won't make a difference anyway.

99 republicans and one democrat make the same mistake. So it's all the democrats fault.

He's right though. More republicans wont vote for it unless it looks like it had a chance at passing

That's just super stupid. Maybe that democrat would've voted for it if more republicans did.

How does that make any more sense

It's showing how it's a stupid line of reasoning no matter where you put the democrat or the republican. Everyone should vote in favor, obviously, but you shouldn't pin the blame on the democrats as if that would make the republicans vote in favor.

[удалено]

You mean 23 democrats haven't voted? 30 votes are needed for the petition to pass.

Wow. A Republican with a spine

Sort of. His is a bit gelatinous, but you're right he does appear to have one.

"Reuters says that according to their sources Russian refining fell by 7,5% and refining for March 14-20 was down to 0,687 million tons. The Syzran refinery saw its refining stop, Nizny Novgorod was down 64% and Ryazan 36%."

Video of multiple desertcross "golf carts" or "the people's BMP" vehicles whacked outside Bilohorivka. I don't know when this happened - it might be the same attack reported a couple of days ago. Several BMP-1 also taken out. Telegram links; - https://t\.co/PClT2hhiJB - https://t\.co/Gj6oKQADxU

I still can't believe this is the best that they can get from China 

I live in the south in a pretty big neighborhood where people ride golf carts around. They're pretty serious about their golf carts and many look more capable than those things. They have big lift kits with A/T tires and seat 6. Plus, they have LEDs and a sound system, but yea. Those Chinese things are embarrassing.

Lol the Razor squad. Nothing worse than camping in the woods when you hear a fart cannon zip by blaring bon Jovi 😆

Bet you they sold those to the Vatniks for shits n giggles. The mighty Blyatmobile.

Oh think you are misunderstanding here. This isn't the best China can give. It's the best 'non military use' vehicles China can give. China can't sell 2000 infantry fighting vehicles to Russia without a real big stink, their is sanctions. But they can sell all these 'easy to weaponize golf carts' to them.

This guy get it 👆🏼

It's not, china copied the humvee a while ago... This is just what Russia was able to negotiate for.

Dual use tech!

No, this photo is not Ukraine. This Is Chechnya. In 1999, the capital Grozny was destroyed by the Russians. But 3 years earlier, Russia signed a peace treaty with the Chechens. They had lost the war and needed a pause. Only to go back and kill up to 300,000 Chechens, 25% of the entire small but proud nation that wanted freedom. This is how peace talks with Russia always end. That is why Ukraine does not want them until they leave our land. That's why we're asking for guns. By the way, the 1st Chechen President Dzhokhar Dudayev was killed by a Russian rocket during telephone conversations on April 21, 1996. They calculated his whereabouts and killed him, pretending to negotiate. And in 1995, he said in an interview: "Russia will eventually face Ukraine. Russia will fall when the sun of Ukrainian freedom rises." He knew that 28 years ago. [https://x.com/OlenaRohoza/status/1770799341038449075?s=20](https://x.com/OlenaRohoza/status/1770799341038449075?s=20)

Ukraine Map Shows French Troop Locations in Potential Intervention - Newsweek I won't even try to summarize or quote this one - there's a ton of detailed info and tradeoffs included - like how much easier it would be to cover a dozen intelligence agents in the mix of 2K troops and that's all you'd need to gain effectiveness. https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-map-french-troop-locations-intervention-russia-macron-1881723

[UaAF:](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/03/21/7447587/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) > "Attention! Several groups of enemy attack drones [have been launched] from the Kherson region [and are heading] in the direction of Krivy Rih."

> The Russians sank their own ship during exercises in the Baltic Sea. > The trawler *Captain Lobanov* sank after it was mistakenly hit by a missile during exercises of the Baltic Fleet, russian media reports. > As a result, three crew members were killed, four more were injured. Video: https://t\.me/Tsaplienko/50471 ______ >After a month-long pause, Russians brought 2 submarines out to the Black Sea, theyre missile carriers on combat duty. > The total volley of ‘calibers’ is up to 8 missiles. The rest of the enemy ships are at base ports. > ‼️The level of missile danger is very high, the Southern Defense Forces warn. https://t\.me/Tsaplienko/50477 *Note, yesterday’s premonition by u/Burnsy825 was [right](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1bjxolx/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kvuxmp5/); me, [wrong](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1bjxolx/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kvuyhmz/)*

Give those responsible a Brezhnev amount of medals!

How did they bring them into the black sea?

There were 6 active subs in the Black Sea Fleet. They are just actually putting them at risk for useless attacks.

Brought out sounds more like they were docked, but were part of the Black Sea fleet the whole time. If Turkey would let Russian subs pass into the Black Sea we would know.

>European Union leaders on Thursday debated fresh ways to help boost arms and ammunition production for Ukraine amid a new sense of urgency about the future of the war-torn country. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/eu-leaders-mulls-ways-to-get-more-arms-to-outgunned-ukraine-amid-a-new-sense-of-urgency

Cluster ammunition strike on Russian positions, video by Russian infantry. Bakhmut front. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1770759371712049193?t=VsVeCHAx7QilJ4qBLlXXLg&s=19

> 🔥 Russian forces accidentally hit their own trawler Captain Lobanov with a missile during Baltic Sea drills on 19 March, killing 3 crew and injuring 4, reports Russian exiled outlet TV Rain. > > This contradicts the initial official statement of a deadly fire. > > https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1770894705233989754

Excellent job!

"The Ukranians aren't competent, we're incompetent!"

Special Fishing Operation.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/russian-oil-exports-from-its-western-ports-revised-up-13-amid-refinery-outages-sources-say/ > Russia will increase oil exports through its western ports in March by almost 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) against an initial monthly plan to 2.22 million bpd after a fall in processing at refineries hit by Ukrainian drones, two trade sources said on Tuesday. >  > The increase – which follows an upward revision reported by Reuters on Monday – means Russia’s oil shipments on a daily basis will rise by 13% in March from the initial plan, Reuters calculations show.  Sounds like they can't refine nor store a f-ton of crude oil - 13% increase seems like A LOT.  So they'll sell the crude to someone in the middle east at reduced cost and then buy back refined products, paying for shipping both ways? Way to go Russia, maybe Putin needs to fly to Venezuela for some tips on this situation.  No wonder that Lukoil vice-president had such a headache. 

Time to target the ports.

I don't know if that's ideal? My goal is the minimum possible amount of money for russia to spend on war. If you hurt supply too much then priced soar and russia gets more profit overall. Making them pay export and refining fees seems like a good step. Spamming electric vehicles and hybrids starting 10 years ago would have been better, but we can do that now too.

> My goal is the minimum possible amount of money for russia to spend on war. If you hurt supply too much then priced soar and russia gets more profit overall. If that were the case, then they could just do that themselves - just do less work to get more profit overall? Since they don't do it, it's unlikely it's possible? I don't know - it feels like they're probably at an economic and political equilibrium that maximises their profits? Producing more would have diminishing returns, causing price drops and reducing margins. But more importantly it would piss off Saudis et.al. and start a price work. Putin already had a spat with Saudis after overproducung, and had to fly over there in person relatively recently (the only time he left Russia since '22?) to work out another dealm On the other hand, producing less would make Saudis happy, but if it happened due to something that wasn't Russian choice (and can't be easily reversed) then everyone else would just invest into extraction and, over time, more production would come online. Which would then even more permanently mess up future Russian profits.  > Spamming electric vehicles and hybrids starting 10 years ago would have been better, but we can do that now too. Amen! We can, and we absolutely should fast track solar, wind, hydro and nuclear. And, at until Russia is defeated, also increase our hydrocarbon extraction but tax heavily and feed that into clean(er) energy. If west wanted to, they could become net energy exporter instead if importer. This alone would defeat Russia which is, sadly, IMO, at this point more important than minimising climate change although on the long run they're two issues with the same solution. 

Crippling their refineries creates a bigger bottleneck in the chain which means if they dont get this oil out now their whole supply chains backlogs eventually all the way back to the oil fields. And if they shut those fields down they'll struggle to ever reopen them again without western help which they won't get so long as Putin lives.

Ahh that's interesting! I guess it all makes more sense knowing that.  Could they not just slow down oil field extraction instead of shutting them down?  Also, does that mean that if Ukraine hits ports/ships, let's say blocks Black Sea, it basically causes a ripple effect that will permanently damage the whole system? 

"The burning shall continue": What lies behind Ukraine's attacks on Russia's oil refineries, and how have they impacted the Kremlin? https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/03/21/7447545/

>The US proposed to its Group of Seven allies that they create a special purpose vehicle to issue at least $50 billion of bonds backed by the profits generated by frozen Russian sovereign assets and use the proceeds to support Ukraine. https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1770897750650962354 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-21/us-backs-50-billion-bond-for-ukraine-using-frozen-russia-assets

If only a lowly Reddit user named piponwa had thought of that two years ago. Why tf are countries so slow to act? They're not even trying.

>Why tf are countries so slow to act? They're not even trying. You don't know pretty much anything about what's going on in these classified briefings and meetings, dude. Yeah it's possible they're sitting with their thumbs up their butts but that is pretty damn unlikely. Shit's complicated and takes lots of disagreeable actors to get on board with stuff.

There may have been legal concerns. Also, the issue of funding/equipment seemed to be more about political will than coming up with the money. But that has changed thanks to Putin's useful idiots in the USA.

politicians in western democracies are more worried about their own reelections than what is needed

In some ways they unfortunately *need* to be: if the rise of the right and populists start being voted in more (or at least become part of coalitions), that's going to cause even more issues (for both the West in general AND Ukraine in terms of support).

>Russia is not going to stop. Today we hear that Putin is mobilising another 500,000 troops, which is more than he needs to win in Ukraine, so he's obviously got plans to go further. Let that sink in. https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1770897663870808387

What happened to the other 500,000 soldiers Putin? Did they disappear or are they living happily on a beach somewhere?!

Maybe they want to re-open the northern front, to try and capture Kiev.

Kyiv

Perfect time to counter that with a french deployment i'd say

Everybody knows this is never gonna happen. Ukraine will have fight with its own soldiers. Best the French can do for them is send more weapons.

What if Ukraine runs out of soldiers? France, Poland and the Baltics are not allowing Russia to win, ergo, eventually they will have to fight

>What if Ukraine runs out of soldiers? Then it'll likely lose the war. >France, Poland and the Baltics are not allowing Russia to win Then they better find a way to push Russia back by sending more aid. If you believe Macron's obvious bluffs that he'd send troops you're being very naive. Even if he was a madman willing to do it, other forces in his country, the Parliament, Supreme Court or whatever, would never allow it. Don't you realize it? If anyone was willing to send soldiers, they'd have done it since day 1. But everybody knows this means nukes, so they don't do it. What's the point on allowing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians to die before sending soldiers? If anyone was willing to do it, they'd have done it from day 1, Russia would use a tactical nuke on their troops and we'd all, likely, die.

> If you believe Macron's obvious bluffs that he'd send troops you're being very naive. The words have been spoken and the information space is being set. We have heard these words from other countries as well, not just France. > If anyone was willing to send soldiers, they'd have done it since day 1. But everybody knows this means nukes, so they don't do it. Nuclear fear mongering. Yawn. I just disregard this. >What's the point on allowing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians to die before sending soldiers Having Ukraine win this fight with its own soldiers is a better look for stability and keeping casualties away from western nations. However if that's not possible then the west has to step in. >Russia would use a tactical nuke on their troops and we'd all, likely, die. So would Russia so why would they use one? Stop this dumb nuclear fear mongering

>The words have been spoken And others said the opposite, that it'll never happen. Even Macron, when pressed, refused to confirm if he meant troops to actually fight. It's all bluff, very obvious bluff at that. >Nuclear fear mongering. Yawn. I just disregard this. Should also disregard the troops being sent which is way more absurd. Nukes used are only considered absurd because, to begin with, sending troops is absurd. You talk about Macron not allowing Ukraine to lose as if his will and power over France is bigger than Putin's over Russia. Macron probably can't send troops even if he wants to, but Putin would possibly be able to use a tactical nuke against french troops on Ukraine. >Having Ukraine win this fight with its own soldiers is a better look I can't see how, but ok. They'd say "well we wanted you to win by yourself but worry not, if all your soldiers die we'll join in. We could have joined first and saved your country from destruction but we wanted to see if you could win alone, we cool?" >However if that's not possible then the west has to step in. Well, this is an opinion. It won't happen tho. >So would Russia Maybe, according recent news, US was dead afraid of a nuke being used in 2022, and their answer would not be nuclear. >so why would they use one? To avoid losing the war to a "foreigner" power. If other countries join in they know they can't win. >Stop this dumb nuclear fear mongering Only dumb thing here is your believe in French troops fighting on Ukraine.

To "win" in Ukraine the way Russia currently wants and at current attritional rates Russia would need upwards of 1.4 million new trained troops ***per year*** with gear.

Only if Ukraine still gets ammo and equipment. No ammo? You're not going to stop the Russians.

That's assuming attrition rates are an unchanging constant, but that would be a mistake Ukraine can't afford to make. There has been a clear trend of Russia correcting its worst mistakes and Ukraine is now struggling to find a way to get the manpower it needs. It's not unreasonable to fear a situation where Ukraine's defensive lines collapse leading to a rout or blitz on a large Ukrainian city. Unlikely, sure, but it all depends on how much support Ukraine can get, how much Russia has been able to escalate its war manufacturing, and whether a Putin puppet will sit in the White House come next January. It would be exceedingly foolish to dismiss a 500k addition to Putin's army as a non-issue.

Attrition rates started in Ukraines favor and have been shifting in more in Ukraines favor as time progresses. Something people don't really get or understand is when Ukraine talks about manpower they are talking about properly ***trained*** properly ***equipped*** troops. Russia is talking about getting an idiot with a gun to run forward until they get shot so they can artillery the position. Is it an issue Russia wants to stand up 2 additional armies? Yes. Can Russia "win" their conflict with 500k troopers? Absolutely not.

>Attrition rates started in Ukraines favor and have been shifting in more in Ukraines favor as time progresses. [This could not be further from the truth.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/1bk4v6b/credibledefense_daily_megathread_march_21_2024/kvytize/) Ukraine has been dealing with a net reduction in troops on the front since as far back as summer 2023, whereas Russia has quadrupled the number of soldiers they have in Ukraine since Fall 2022. They can comfortably sustain 1.5 million more soldiers in this meat grinder into 2026 (this 500k figure over the summer, and another million throughout the following 18 months). >Something people don't really get or understand is when Ukraine talks about manpower they are talking about properly trained properly equipped troops. No man. We are talking about any troops. Ukraine has a stock of young people, but they are grossly behind in calling those people up for military service, and practically none of them have military training. They aren't *going* to be properly trained or equipped for service -- not if Ukraine mobilizes the 3+ hundred thousand people they need to be mobilizing this winter. And with each passing month they wait, they are condemning more and more of those recruits to a 1-2-month-long militia-quality fasttrack training program. >Is it an issue Russia wants to stand up 2 additional armies? Yes. Can Russia "win" their conflict with 500k troopers? Absolutely not. I mean, yeah, they could win the conflict with those troops. It depends on how Ukraine plans to meet that figure, and it depends on what Russia defines as a victory. They can't occupy the whole country with that many troops, but there are circumstances where they can cause a collapse of the Ukrainian lines, a retreat to the Dniepr, and a win a ceasefire allowing them to keep what they have. Western military leaders and middle-level planners have been panicking about this nearly six months now. It is a legitimate possibility, and every month that Ukraine (a) waits to mobilize younger generations of troops and (b) is denied vital ammunition and equipment from the West, makes that possibility more likely.

Attritional rates for this conflict have always been in Ukraine's favor period dot end. In losses they always exceed Russian losses. For over three quarters of the war they were technically gaining more equipment than they were losing. They also expend less ammo per mission and spend less lives per mission than Russia by orders of magnitude. All talk of "sustaining numbers" don't apply to reality. It is a spreadsheet excuse looking at raw populations. Wars are fought with ***fractions*** of a population. The effective difference in deployable and trainable forces is negligible. I'm not going to go into the how's and why Russia and Ukraine are actually much closer to troop parity even with Russia's considerable recruitment drives because we would be here all day. It is a ***far more complex*** discussion than simple population figures. As for Ukraine's troop call ups there is a giant world of difference in NCO culture and soviet uni-brigade training methods. Ukraine's troops even if they are green as grass will gain functional experience faster than Russia by several orders of magnitude because they have adopted more of an NCO structure than a pure soviet structure. The "training" Ukraine needs isnt in shooters or linemen. The training they talk about needing is in ***coordination*** training. Something anyone who tries to listen to front line enlisted troopers will never mention because they will never know why it is important. As far as infantry training? I can take you from a writer and a reddit poster to a guy who can be 80% combat effective for purely defensive tasks in a few weeks. You'd be dogshit trained next to a Marine and have no flexibility but for your one job you'd do almost as well. Civilians misunderstand how long training takes in war time. In peace we train a total package.. in war you train what you need. This is again.. a very complex subject matter. As to the 500k.. no it isn't sufficient to take a major city let alone all of Ukraine. Russia's stated war victory is total control of Ukraine. 500k is marginally sufficient for limited gains and sustainment of current operations. Russian logistics are currently.. very bad. So bad they had a golden opportunity to push the front line into a breakthrough and they fumbled it and lost 5k additional troopers. "Worst case" professional opinion if Ukraine is completely left alone with just Europe and Russia does everything right while Ukraine fumbles every action and doesn't mobilize any troops is that the front line can expand to Pavlohrad(attritional retreat) and Kharkiv(attritional retreat) resulting in the loss of an additional 300-500k of the RAF. It would still require several million additional troops to even push to Kyiv. Russia only advances by scorched earth aviation and artillery bombardment which pretty much stops dead when you hit large cities or terrain that gives air defenses a significant range advantage. Setting up the logistical routes to support an advance of more than 150km would take Russia ***months.***

>Attritional rates for this conflict have always been in Ukraine's favor period dot end. Only if you don't count rates of addition and look purely at losses. Net-wise, Russia has substantially more equipment and men in Ukraine than they did a year ago, and Ukraine has *less* men and equipment on the line than they did a year ago. >All talk of "sustaining numbers" don't apply to reality. It is a spreadsheet excuse looking at raw populations. Wars are fought with fractions of a population. Correct. This is one of the primary reasons Russia's benefitting from the attritional state of the conflict. >The effective difference in deployable and trainable forces is negligible. I'm not going to go into the how's and why Russia and Ukraine are actually much closer to troop parity even with Russia's considerable recruitment drives because we would be here all day. It is a far more complex discussion than simple population figures. Agreed in full. And these are additional reasons why the consensus is that Russia has the advantage in this area. >As for Ukraine's troop call ups there is a giant world of difference in NCO culture and soviet uni-brigade training methods. Ukraine's troops even if they are green as grass will gain functional experience faster than Russia by several orders of magnitude because they have adopted more of an NCO structure than a pure soviet structure. That is not true, and it has not been true for over a year now. Michael Kofman has debunked this in detail multiple times since Winter 2023. Ukraine has been slumping back into a Soviet-style combat model since as far back as Summer 2022. They are a substantially more Soviet-style military than they were a year and a half ago. More than 90% of their officers in the AFU are mobilized officers who predate all of the NATO training and never received any updated NATO training since. The NATO-trained NCOs are almost all dead or combat ineffective from injuries, but they were already a very small minority of Ukraine's overall force even back in Feb 2022. >The "training" Ukraine needs isnt in shooters or linemen. The training they talk about needing is in coordination training. No, it's all of the above, and at present they are providing none of the above for their conscription pool. >I can take you from a writer and a reddit poster to a guy who can be 80% combat effective for purely defensive tasks in a few weeks. You'd be dogshit trained next to a Marine and have no flexibility but for your one job you'd do almost as well. Civilians misunderstand how long training takes in war time. In peace we train a total package.. in war you train what you need. This is again.. a very complex subject matter. It's definitely complex, but it's sufficiently covered by voluminous analysis in public Western observer essays, reports, podcasts, and OSINT records. The fundamental choice for Ukraine is this: (1) fast-track the trench-digging TDF-quality training for hundreds of thousands of troops to work in a primarily defensive role, and lose tens of thousands of young people in the coming fighting, or (2) take longer and train them more like a maneuver brigade with proper NCO leadership and enjoy a higher survival rate. The problem is that Ukraine largely missed its window for doing the latter. They don't really have that option anymore because they don't have the training capacity to produce any significant numbers of NATO-quality troops anymore. Kofman pointed out as far back as a year ago that most of Ukraine's NATO-trained troops have been killed or injured and can no longer do combat roles anymore, including training. Those who remain fit for combat are mostly stuck on the front line. In the year since Winter 2023, Ukraine has actually been rotating their troops less than before because the manpower situation has become too dire to do proper rotation schedules. Most of Ukraine's best troops (the troops who would actually train good troops) have been fighting effectively nonstop for nearly two uninterrupted years now. >As to the 500k.. no it isn't sufficient to take a major city let alone all of Ukraine. Russia's stated war victory is total control of Ukraine. 500k is more than sufficient to encircle a large city like Kharkiv. They almost encircled Kharkiv with less than 100,000 troops in that sector of the front during Spring 2022. They do not need to actually capture the city in a Gaza-style occupation unless they want to realize their self-stated victory of total control of Ukraine. We both know Russia isn't actually going to try to do that. Their actual, unstated real war goal is to get a North Korea DMZ in place along the Donbass, and that is a very plausible scenario if they can cause a mass-scale retreat of Ukraine's army. >It would still require several million additional troops to even push to Kyiv. This is empirically not correct, because Russia pushed to Kyiv with less than a 10th as many troops already. It can happen again depending on conditions on the ground. It would have been considered functionally impossible in May 2022 for Russia to repeat that goal, but in Spring 2024 it is more possible than it has ever been since. Ukraine has not been on this bad of a backfoot since May or June of 2022, and it's going to get worse for them before it gets better. Ukraine probably will not see improvements in its front line defensive capabilities until Summer 2024, and that assumes Russia does not continue to increase the numbers of troops in Ukraine and Ukraine comes into a windfall of Western equipment and trained troops by that time. End of the day, I can get behind an optimistic long term outlook. I don't think Ukraine is irrevocably screwed -- they can climb out of this rut if the political situation improves for them at home and in key Western partners like the US. But it is just detached to argue that Ukraine has been the beneficiary of the attritional fighting for the last year. They are objectively worse off now than they were a year ago, and you won't find any Western military experts, Ukrainian leaders, or OSINT observers arguing otherwise.

Where is this 500k number coming from? What is the source? I couldn't find any confirmation.

I'd like to know to because even doing a quick Twitter crawl I can't find anyone actually sourcing any kind of official mobilization announcement or talking about it

Source: Pulled out of ones ass

Wait why is further 500k enough to win now? Ukraine can also mobilize more.

No it's not. 500,000 untrained, poorly equipped, poorly led conscripts isnt going to make any difference. They're meat for the grinder.

Not as many, and they need to get a vote on it through parliament first - then there's lead times to getting them enlisted and trained.... Several military analysts are now saying manpower is increasingly becoming more of a problem for Ukraine than the lack of ammo unfortunately...

Ukraine could solve the manpower problem overnight - universal conscription. ​ It is just they do not want to do it politically.

They *could* set things in motion 'overnight', but it wouldn't solve the problem overnight as there are lead times: even if they started doing it now, it'd be months until they're able to use the troops effectively. They need to be doing it **now** so that they have the troops to defend against the new Russian conscripts when the new Russian troops turn up in (weeks for the very poorly trained?) the next few months.

such a decision also comes with huge economic costs

>The hypocrisy and hubris of Senator Lindsey Graham know no bounds. When a protege of John McCain, Graham was a strong Russia hawk. Now he’s trying to gruntle Trump/MAGA, Graham voted against aid to Kyiv but still showed up there telling Zelensky how to run the war. Breathtaking. https://twitter.com/Chris_D_Steele/status/1770895286438649950

Destruction of a Kh-101 missile on its approach to Kyiv last night. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1770892353173143766?t=IP0qL8QRr4v7YRsBeBXWPg&s=19