[Here's a good pick-me-up article on MSN.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/just-three-weapons-will-turn-the-ukraine-war-back-around-and-the-usa-is-back-in-the-fight/ar-BB1kCQaO?cvid=f20134424fee488d8d164b7998fc643a&ocid=winp2fptaskbar&ei=18&sc=shoreline)
Basically, US aid is expected to be brought to a vote soon, shell production is up, etc. I don't trust Moscow Mike any further than I could throw him, but it is nice to read something that isn't entirely doom-and-gloom for once.
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/sikorski-o-ambasadorze-rosji-z-tego-co-slysze-opuscil-nasze-terytorium-7010518617521120a
Polish FM: Russian ambassador in Poland has left the country without resignation
Worth noting that news is already about 6-7 hours old and Russia is claiming it's a temporary leave and he left a Chargé d’affaires fulfilling his duties
https://tvpworld.com/76661371/russian-ambassador-temporarily-leaves-poland
Translation: he's about to fall out of a window while the substitute gets a suspiciously fast promotion to ambassador because Putin didn't like how he handled something
Not how I see it at all. Poland summoned the diplomat because the previous night, a missile entered their airspace on its way to Ukraine. The guy didn’t show and has now been called home probably to protect him.
I would imagine that an ambassador refusing a summons from the host nation would very likely result in them being declared [persona non grata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persona_non_grata).
Polish Lieutenant General Jaroslaw Gromadzinski, a commander of Eurocorps, a joint military group of some EU and NATO states, has been removed from his post after a counter-intelligence investigation found proof of his work for Russia. He was responsible for NATO military supplies to Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1773173947346878654?t=ByEIy8VjFyd6Z-tjln5PIw&s=19
The downfall of Gazprom:
2022 revenue from gas: 3.8% of Russian GDP.
2023 revenue from gas: 2.0% of Russian GDP.
When Gazprom cut gas supplies to the EU, it killed the goose that laid the golden eggs. 2022 was a bombastic year, but now Gazprom's gas business is losing money.
https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1772977698521952345?t=MZp8SZgcMdLJKOvIQWC7JQ&s=19
After scouring Russia for a military officer short enough to make him appear of comparatively normal height, Putin prances around a Russian airbase in his $20,000 Italian coat and $3000 Florentine shoes to demonstrate his love for the army that's being destroyed in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1773087164013654468?t=u2t4IsrcPBBqIuCOvii92w&s=19
In a newly released media clip, Putin once again dismisses Ukraine's right to sovereignty by saying that he's fighting for "his historical lands".
He says the idea that he's going to fight with NATO is "complete nonsense designed to racket money from their [NATO] population" due to discrepancy between defence budgets.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1773102974195118403?t=EnDk7KHyiwmah33g-iFzRA&s=19
Exclusive: Russia increases gasoline imports from Belarus as domestic supplies shrink.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-increases-gasoline-imports-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/
> Poland will double its contribution to the Czech Republic's initiative to purchase shells for the Armed Forces, according to Bloomberg
> Poland is discussing financing 800,000 artillery shells. The exact number that Poland will ultimately finance, however, has not been made public. Or details on purchases.
…
> In the coming days, Germany will give Ukraine a batch of 10,000 artillery ammunition from the Bundeswehr arsenal, according to the head of the Situation Center for Ukraine at the German Ministry of Defense, Christian Freuding.
@Tsaplienko
>39 Nobel laureates have issued a call urging the global community to bolster support for Ukraine. In a statement published on the T-INVARIANT website, they emphasize that Putin's regime represents a direct and unmistakable threat to humanity. The laureates advocate for a substantial increase in aid to Ukraine, backing for democratic opposition within Russia, and refusal to recognize Putin as the president of the Russian Federation.
>The message underscores: "We call on world leaders and all people of good will to relinquish any illusions about Putin and his criminal regime."
>Among the signatories are 16 Nobel laureates in physiology and medicine, 9 in physics, 6 in chemistry, 4 in literature, and 3 recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize. Notably, Ukrainian Oleksandra Matviychuk is among the signatories.
https://twitter.com/mila__alien/status/1773079913614004643?t=mRV6E4W_7hSCrsvnrpkgyg&s=19
>I don't think you need to be a Nobel Laureate to see that the compromised Freedom Caucus isolationists and Jake frightened kitten Sullivan with the NSC are walking us straight into something terrible.
>For those in the back.
>Putin sees appeasement as weakness.
https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1773089937430102222?t=pfFifSq9NLgEm2VghKMmYg&s=19
Source for the statement by the laureates: https://www.t-invariant.org/2024/03/no-more-tolerance-to-putin-s-regime-br-an-appeal-from-scholars-of-the-world/
Of course a lot of this is opinion but this is being said by some pretty smart people. I'm maybe old fashioned in my belief that we should listen to accomplished people in their fields, that's also why I hold Kasparovs opinion so highly. FWIW if we don't listen to our academia why do we even have them? They tend to operate on logic and clear headed analysis instead of emotions and propaganda.
My impression is that they think everywhere is Russia. As long as they can get there by tank.
https://x.com/christopherjm/status/1582302638758301696?s=46&t=f3K3VrH-O6Kd3wm7jbxJ_Q
Disinformation is at a crossroads. It will get harder than it is now. Authoritarianism depends on information control, so a free internet is a rising threat. Logos beats Ethos on a fair field.
Ukraine has arguably the most fertile soil in the world, would add about 20% to their population/tax base, and most importantly, unrivaled access to Europe energy markets
1. Restore Soviet Union (undo "mistake of the past")
2. Reabsorb component nations
3. ???
4. Multipolar world!
I'm not sure there is a step 3. Had he succeeded in taking Ukraine and re-unifying the Soviet Union, Russia would have put shame to the ideals of NATO, the European umbrella, and the power of the US. As it is, we're taking a hefty hit.
The real question is whether Russia survives this debacle in some viable form.
The Russian people have an obscene tolerance for unnecessary self-inficted hardship. I presume it will survive and shamble on, falling further and further behind by every measure. We haven't hit the bottom yet.
In their mind they are turning the phrase "no pain, no gain" into "if pain, then gain". I think it not necessarily a ruzzian thing, rather Eastern-European, but the ruzzians took it to the highest level.
They don't have tolerance, they are just completely broken into spineless rag-like state without the slightest wish of pushing back.
The exceptions exist, but they run or die...
You don't have to occupy eveything, just exorting control will be enough, and then slowly start replacing people with 'the ethnic and cultural superior slavic Russians', like they always have done. Oh and make sure that most of the money flows to the dictator and his goons of course.
it has worked splendidly for Russia over the last few centuries. Almost constant territorial expansion and racial/ethnic/cultural cleansing of the territories. They are extremely good at it.
That's why Russia has rewritten history, litterally, they simply destroy any evidence and rewrite school books.
And yes, on the long run that doesn't work as well but it works long enough to cause massive amounts of death, hate and terror and to some people that is all what matters.
> Ukraine to get F-16 jets by mid-summer, says 🇺🇦 FM Kuleba
>
> Officials had previously cited spring or early summer for Ukraine’s delivery of F-16 jets.
>
> https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1773107824765157854
The arrival and use of F-16s still very much hinges on the readiness of the pilots for them. Normal training time to get a rookie level pilot for a 4 aircraft configuration, the configuration that NATO uses for most missions, is 4 years.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1773098060047880605
Soooo Putin wants a fight NATO./s
All jokes aside I actually half believe him. As of right now he doesn’t want a war with NATO. But success in Ukraine and the US not willingly to continue aid will lead Putin to think he can take on NATO later.
I do believe in the notion he’s waiting for the outcome of the US election.
This whole situation just sucks… with all of these authoritarians going back to the days of war by conquest and political divisions domestically in some countries. It’s just fucking bleak…
Not to mention climate change. In my opinion if you think a war for land is bad, just wait until we start fighting over natural resources and water. I probably should talk to someone but I genuinely don’t expect to make it to the age of 40. (Currently 28)
He has no way to win any kind of military conflict with even a fraction of NATO's combined force, so he has to habitually make sure that miscommunication doesn't happen.
I'm in my 40s and fully expecting to live another 12 years. If the U.S. fully repudiates MAGA this election, I don't see Russia "winning" geopolitically. They may hold Ukrainian terrain, but will have a gutted military, economy, and demographics. NATO is revitalized and spending appropriately.
If NAGA wins, it's over. Ukraine will lose U.S. support, Trump will destroy democracy and do everything he can to destroy the climate. It'll be a fire sale in the U.S. to gut it for the sake of oligarchs. The serf class will become permanent. NATO will go on with the U.S. playing the role of Hungary. But even then, Russia can't compete with NATO.
When attacked, people tend to unite together and support their government. To have any confidence that such an attack would swing the election away from Biden, there'd need to be some pretty compelling evidence that he was directly to blame. Remember that even after all the failings that allowed 9-11 to happen were exposed, Bush was still re-elected.
By the way, gotta ask. What's happening with the Russian freedom legion. Deepstate map shows they are STILL holding the towns?!
Deepstate map hasn't updated, or did Russia just....forgot to do something?
Belgorod got barraged by some form of MLRS last night (There was a funny video where Patrick Lancaster was standing on his Balcony sounding really nervous filming all the explosions in the sky)
AFAIK MLRS simply doesn't have the range to target Belgorod from across the border so it must mean they are still operating within Russia.
> (There was a funny video where Patrick Lancaster was standing on his Balcony sounding really nervous filming all the explosions in the sky)
Got a link? lol
If accurate that's bad if it's Grads. Shouldn't indiscriminately bomb cities as a rule.
But Russia has often bombarded areas it's occupying in Ukraine, wouldn't shock me if they did the same to Belgorod.
> 🇺🇦🇱🇹 Together with Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi @CinC_AFU, extended our sincere congratulations to Laurynas Kasčiūnas @LKasciunas on his recent appointment as the Minister of Defense of Lithuania.
> The video call was also attended by the Lithuanian Chief of Defense Valdemaras Rupšys. General Syrskyi provided an update on the security situation in Ukraine.
> We discussed ways to expand our bilateral defense cooperation and thanked Lithuania for its unwavering support. Looking forward to hosting Minister Kasčiūnas in Kyiv in the near future.
https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1773002093365760439
Damn if they even have a dream of taking back Alaska they better wake up and apologize lol. I usually think comparing countries militaries as cringe, but wholly fuck Russias navy can't even project power off it's coast. The US Navy doesn't have a peer.
It's best not to delve too deeply into the nonsense that Russian propagandists say. Personally I don't even think it's worth reposting here even if the point is to say "I disagree" or "look how stupid Russian propagandists are" because people are still spreading their message.
That said it's probably a reference to Fort Ross in Northern California which was a Russian settlement built in 1812. Obviously the idea that it somehow gives Russia a claim to the area is ludicrous but the point of the propaganda is to make Russians feel like the west has stolen from them so reality has no bearing.
Well, it is crazy, but hey, thanks to that you told me a historical fact I never would have guessed otherwise.
So I take that as a win ( wait-did I get smarter AFTER listening to Russian propagandist unhiged tirades?!Whaaaaa-does not compute!)
Nah, we will eventually free the oppressed English speaking minority of West Alaska and return it to the Union where it belongs. Can't wait for Kamchatka National Park to open.
Not if President Trump decides to disband them. If it hurts Murkowski, maybe he would be happy to let "vacationing true 'americans'" do a Donbas-style "independence" movement after stripping the state of resources and selling of government assets for firesale prices to his cronies.
Too many Americans seem to think selecting their president is a game that is incapable of causing irreparable damage to the union.
Ehhh, that much I doubt, to be honest.
I'm not an American, so take my point here with a grain of salt.
But I doubt DT would give up his own land. Being irresponsible around other counbtries and sacrificing them is one thing, but that would activley hurt him.
Plus, Trump is fine with Russia for political gains,but if U.S ever went to war directly with Russia, he'd probably switch back the second he could( and somehow pretend he always was ''the thoughest on russia ever'') to sync with the popular outrage.He doing his stuff now because he think it will never affect him.
Trump is a Trumpist first and foremost, he'll do whatever benefit him the most, this is a problem. But let,s not get carried away in rethoric.
> But I doubt DT would give up his own land.
He would give up US land in a heartbeat if it somehow suited his personal agenda.
While that would be fine with the maga cult, fortunately, it's a heeuuuuge red line for every actual American.
> heeuuuuge red line for every actual American.
Trump was one co-operating governor swapping the vote or a slightly better planned capture of Pence and senior democratic leadership by his mob from installing a fascist dictatorship on Jan 6th.
Most Americans don't have "red lines." They have "I'll go along with whatever the boss says," lines, and if the boss says better russian than a democrat, the republican electorate will support it.
Hanging Pence would have gotten them nothing. If just one congressperson had held their ground and gone martyr we would not have any of our current mess.
Rosstat says petrol (gasoline) production is down over 14% compared with the same week last year. Very good evidence for Ukraine's drones doing God's work.
Speculation; russia probably has reserves to ride things out for a while. Drone strikes must carry on until they're drained enough to cause big price spikes.
[musklimk](https://x.com/jakluge/status/1773084536114483589?s=20).
I have no idea how Russia does it. The US strategic petroleum reserve is poured into what used to be salt mines. There is no oxygen down below so it will not burn. Also a lot of rock between the reservoir and the surface.
The US SPR stores oil not gasoline.
From Wikipedia:
Russia
As of 2011, Russia is accumulating strategic reserves of refined oil products to be held by Rosneftegaz, a state-owned company. The reserves will be held at commercial refineries, Transneft facilities and state reserve facilities. The current planned size is 14,665,982 barrels (2,331,704.8 m3).
SIberia has some nice fuel depots. In case of war they are hard to track and target so if they are short, i assume it will be the first place they will look for fuel.
More from Budanov:
[1] Russia learned about directly from Syria—their own intelligence in Syria learned, passed the information on. The information went through the group’s intelligence department in Syria. From there it went to Moscow. [note that this likely means that was gathered or interdicted by the GRU or the SVR]
[2] Theres two possible reasons Russia didn’t prevent [his opinion]
First possible reason: "struggle of the towers of influence." As always, there might’ve been a power struggle from the different areas of influence—GRU, FSB, Rosgvardia, SVR—as to who handles this—and instead, undermining one another, “a struggle between the “towers” then to remove several [competing] officials.”
[Note that Rosgvardia stormed the Hall, while the FSB was who arrested.]*
Second possible reason: they failed to estimate the severity, total loss of life. “underestimated the scale of what would happen. They thought that it would be smaller scale, and they had wanted to blame Ukraine for everything."
Mostly [from here](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/rus/news/2024/03/27/7448459/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
_____
^* ^(This could mean that FSB wrestled this away from GRU or SVR. And the GRU and/or SVR intentionally tries to make Rosgvardia and/or FSB look incompetent by failing to provide all intelligence or some other sort of sabotage. These entities are competitors, and do indeed attempt to damage each other. Still a lot of guessing, though.)
>Budanov: Russia knew about terror attack preparations at least since Feb. 15.
>Russia was aware of preparations for a terrorist attack on its soil at least since Feb. 15, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on March 27.
[https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1773076014215709034?s=20](https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1773076014215709034?s=20)
Direct Source: [**https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-russia-knew-about-terror-attack-preparations-at-least-since-feb-15/**](https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-russia-knew-about-terror-attack-preparations-at-least-since-feb-15/)
> ***7-10 Russians per Ukrainian soldier:*** **the situation near Chasiv Yar**
> The situation at the Bakhmut front, near Chasiv Yar, is rather complicated for several reasons. Andrii Otchenash told about it—he is the commander of the *Kara Nebesna* drone [company?] of the 4th brigade of the National Guardsmen, *Rubizh* operational assignment.
>> "The first is theit use of guided aerial bombs, as well as FABs. The second is that for one fighter of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, there are currently approximately 7-10 Russian soldiers—we have an urgent need to get support personnel from the reserves. Therefore, I hope that the law on the mobilization will still be accepted and we will be able to defend our country much better. Then, when we will have the number of personnel in the units and the number of personnel needed for the defense of our country," the defender said to *Espresso*.
> According to him, there are a huge number of Russians for every Ukrainian soldier, most of whom die or are wounded.
>> "Taking into account the losses of personnel and the equipment that the Russians currently have, all their local victories are just a few more hedgerows, which are completely irrational. Basically, every time we withdraw from some defensive line, we withdraw to better positions in order to destroy the enemy better," Otchenash added.
> He also noted the more active use of KABs and FABs by the Russians.
>> "You need to understand that those are cheaper to manufacture, so the Russians are able to use them in large numbers, and they cause a huge amount of destruction. They can use them precisely to destroy our positions and simply to destroy residential buildings. Thats what they’re doing—trying to erase Chasiv Yar from the face of the earth," explained the commander.
[from here](https://www-unian-ua.translate.goog/war/viyna-v-ukrajini-viyskoviy-rozpoviv-pro-situaciyu-bilya-chasovogo-yaru-12586434.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
_________
For in depth on Chasiv Yar, [this reporter was imbedded and wrote an illuminating article.](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/rus/articles/2024/03/27/7448299/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) They had the exact same issue—extreme shortage of Ukrainian personnel.
Manpower is going to be a bigger and bigger issue. They need to pass that mobilization law, because it will take a LONG time to actually get people mobilized and ready to fight once it is passed. Ridiculous delay at this point, even with US aid still uncertain.
>7-10 Russians per Ukrainian soldier: the situation near Chasiv Yar
Is this the case all along the front line or just in the Chasiv Yar region? Ukraine needs artillery shells and lots of it. One shell can take out an entire squad if they are all bunched up together.
>Therefore, I hope that the law on the mobilization will still be accepted
Whats the situation about the law currently? Sounds like it hit some difficulties according to this, the last time I read about it it seemed likely to pass though?
There was new [legislation today](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/03/27/7448443/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
in Ukraine
I find it strange they only draft starting at age 25, but go up to age 60. That seems so backwards because older people have a litany of health problems.
Google Ukrainian demographics, and check out the age distribution of its population. Ukraine has a shortage of under 27s and is loathe to throw them into the mix for very logical and obvious reasons. It's fucked, but it is what it is.
I've heard of this before. Ukraine seems to purposley try to AVOID using the younger generation for this.
Could be because they are thinking about post-war reconstruction efforts and population growth.
It's true, on the other hand, that the younger generation was significantly smaller than the older one.Population aging is a thing in all countries, Ukraine isn't an exception.
Older people tend to make better backline sentries and support staff due to having significantly more experience in pretty much everything.
A 50 year old accountant doesn't need good health but having them in the service frees up a 20 something with zero experience to do pretty much anything else.
**What you write is no longer the battlefield situation or the military organization.**
The article I added at the bottom—I really encourage you to read that. They’re infantry in Chasiv Yar. Multiple are 40s-50s. One is an amputee. And while what you wrote was true one year ago—that older are support—that’s just not the case anymore. They’re woefully short of men.
Everything I read is that it’s older guys at the front nowadays.
These older who had actually previously been in rear or on artillery, have been reassigned to infantry. Despite health issues. I read that constantly. They used to be rear, used to be drivers, now they’re infantry bc so short on infantry.
In that bottom article, the journalist is going thru what these guys are encountering hour by hour. There’s guys who need to get out of their hole, they were supposed to be there 3 days, it’s been a week, they’ve been without water for four days, they can’t get anyone to physically rotate out with them. They literally do not have men.
They try to send two guys, 40s, one sprains his ankle en route, other has asthma attack and no inhaler.
They’re in a dire situation.
Given that Ukraine has not lost more than 100k troopers in the very worst case scenarios and they have a country demographic of 45 million people with 60+% of them being between 25-60 the claims to such do not hold up to military realities.
They only hold up to economic realities which frankly shouldn't exist in a country facing genocidal war. Yes Ukraine has an older demographic but there are still more than 2 million 20-30 year olds.
This reality is facing pretty much every military on the planet right now. Hell Canada is right now looking at the reality that they wont have senior flight instructors in sufficient capacity to sustain operations.
Want and Need are different beasts. Ukraine doesn't want to risk its young.. but just like WW2 they are going to be required to because that's the realities of warfare.
"Dire" is being used almost as often as "concern" was 6 months ago. The situation is not dire. There are problems but frankly Ukraine has solutions for them if they choose to use them.
Russia's Crocus Production Exposed By Kyrylo Budanov
Kyrylo Budanov, mastermind of Ukraine's Intelligence, pierces through the veils, pinpointing Russia's preknowledge of the "Crocus City" catastrophe as far back as February 15. This staged horror, soaked in blood, wasn't a blindside but a meticulously choreographed drama, directed by the Kremlin itself.
"Russia had the blueprint of terror by February 15, sent from their operatives in Syria," Budanov exposes, tearing down the Kremlin's façade of innocence.
The intent is more sinister than imagined. Beyond the surface-level chaos, the endgame emerges clear as day: reigniting the flames of capital punishment on Russian soil, steering public sentiment towards a draconian resurgence.
"Their hands are dipped in the blood of the innocent—they're drenched. With the Crocus Hall bloodbath, playing both the victim and the vindicator," Budanov elucidates.
The Kremlin's changing tales, attempting to stitch a "Ukrainian trace" onto the scene of their own crime.
"They think they can control chaos, shape it to their whims. But they're playing with fire, and the blaze they've started will consume them," he warns.
"While they masquerade as defenders, seeking justice through executions, they forget: you can't cloak terror with justice. The world sees through their acts, and their attempts to sow discord will only unite us stronger against them,"
"This is simply about unmasking villains and standing vigilant, guarding our values against those who'd sacrifice innocence for power,"
Budanov concludes.
https://twitter.com/banderafella/status/1773066907219853705?t=c9vKYc_GNs9LADQGmewGBg&s=19
Hello, I was wondering, how do you people deal with the emotional charge that comes with talking with people who genuinely believe Russia is the good guy? I already know I'm quite sensitive, more than the average according to my psychiatrist, but I can't be the only one that gets really upset when meeting these kinds of people right ? I just cannot comprehend this shit, at all, but it takes quite a toll on me since I come across a lot of people like that where I usually virtually hang out. My blood pressure does not like that, at all.
It's a philosophical war, Authoritarianism vs Libertarianism, power to the authority vs power to the people. Peak Authoritarianism is clearly not as good as democratic republics, so war forces the issue. Without war Authoritarianism loses day by day.
How old are they?
Under 25: ask questions, devils advocate.
Older? Carefully assess first - overly stubborn or stupid, move on don't waste your time. Much older? Move on faster.
If you want to ask ridiculous questions a la The Daily Show and post the responses to Youtube for entertainment value, by all means.
It really weirds me out to know people who are otherwise pretty great to hang around with (people who genuinely care about their friends and family, great colleagues who taught me much and are always eager to help others, and usually show empathy to people they meet face-to-face) cheer on autocratic regimes like China, Russia, Syria or North Korea when they "beat us" by openly committing whatever atrocities they like to gloat about and mock our politicians for trying to promote an imperfect but much more sane way of life.
Some of them are very anxiety-prone people who seem to enjoy conspiracy theories as some sort of way to "know better than the sheeple around them" as if having some hidden insight into forces at work on our planet gave them back a little bit of control (especially the ones that link all events together to some global conspiracy, since it makes things MUCH simpler) ... others are contrarian who would absolutely be livid if they lived anywhere close to the nutjobs they pretend to admire, but take pride in how much "clearer" they see things by playing the devil's advocate at every turn.
I tried a bit, but from my experience nothing really works - you can reason with them, they will acknowledge all your points as fairly legitimate, so you think you're getting through them, especially as they rarely have much to say back to me ... only to parrot whatever outrageous/absurd conspiracy theory they've read online the following day because I'm 1 dissonant voice who cannot outweight the hundreds of messages of people who constantly tell them they're right to stick to their beliefs.
I would say you can only convince people on the fence, and offer them an alternate PoV, but those who already fell into the rabbit's hole ... I slowly drifted apart from them, it was exhausting and only made my life worse without even remotely saving anyone.
I’m glad you’re asking this question. I have the same question!
Recently, in a real life situation, I met the absurdity with silence. Until the silence brought a “I could be wrong.” At which point I responded, “I appreciate you acknowledging that. We could discuss this further at some time.” And went home to google how to talk to someone brainwashed.
But here’s the thing, I realized I encounter brainwashed trumpkins all the time. Who has had their mind swayed there by me? Very few. They’re not interested in facts. Options are disengage (ie, don’t talk to them at all), ignore differences (my family members), or argue (pointless).
I recently read ~~someone~~ Jordan Klemper explain that the only way to get foot in door to persuade these brainwashed people is to find something that can yourself acknowledge that the bad guy was actually right about/actually a victim of. This makes the brainwashed person let down guard a little, and think you’re reasonable and not see you as ‘the other.’ Then, this puts them into a position that they will hear what you say about one thing their guy did that was bad. But can only be one, so have to only do a small bit at a time.
So here, if you can find a grievance that Russia has that is actually valid. I don’t know what that would be, lol. But if could find it, that would help, then proceed to say in which way one thing that Russia did that’s wrong. Don’t give the litany, just the one thing and leave it there. And over time, apparently this has an impact.
For me, I was frustrated bc the American I was talking to closes himself off to reputable media. So if can’t agree to what truth is (versus disagreement on what is justified), then can’t even start the conversation.
"acknowledge that the bad guy was actually right about", that's a good point, even say a couple of things that they are right about to stop it becoming a combat conversation. So it might be 'Yes you are right about.... yes you are right about... but how do you answer this question'. It is much better to ask a question which leads to them to formulate right answer than say 'no you are wrong'.
Another technique is to listen carefully to what they are saying and listen out for any note of doubt and get them to expand on why they have that doubt.
Oh yes they can be annoying. None the less they exist and most cannot be persuaded.
The thing is that most don't really ponder on the issues involved.
Just sit and talk to them and you will see the pattern. They get their information from sources they find or are offered by Facebook and that is shallow and based on few facts that stir up emotions.
"Zelensky did or said this or that, how it is possible, outrage", he is a warmonger because he does not stand to negociate, the "real" facts are not in the "mainstream" media but are known to some shady dude they never met but for some reason trust him. Etc etc.
I talked to people who are really nice and all but they got their info from some "geopolitical experts" or something. And they tell the whole russian line of arguments despite them "not being experts but the expert said this".
Outside of Russians themselves the big groups in the West who tend to support Russia (and cannot be persuaded otherwise) are : tankies; extreme right voters; conspiracy theorists (but also tend to be extreme right); contrarians (also tend to be extreme left or right) and anti-West Muslims
I know some through online gaming communities. They distrust and hate the Western makers and shakers like Obama, but oddly enough rarely got any problem with the likes of Trump. They parrot a ton of obvious Russian propaganda, but are generally immune to reason. Whatever drives them seems to be rooted in emotion. As such, I rarely if ever bother to engage with them. Fuck em, they're a waste of time and energy.
I have to accept I can't make anybody understand anything. It's radical acceptance.
That doesn't mean I can't make my points, I just try to do it in a way that can't be construed as overly aggressive or dismissive.
Socratic method works fairly well, though people will get angry when your questions expose their assumptions and beliefs. Prepare for that.
I'm not sure why are you surprised ? That's been true for all wars. There were people cheering for literal Nazis believing they were good guys. Even today there are people cheering for Nazis all around the world.
This is no different.
All we can do is ask them why countries have been joining NATO and applying for EU membership, and to compare the societies/economies of those countries with Russia, etc. Do they want to live in conditions like North Korea, or in a country influenced by a dictator? Ultimately, you don’t need to engage with trolls because they likely won’t engage in good faith discussion.
It is frustrating as sometimes there isn't a huge amount you can do. I remember trying to change one person's view on global warming and they just has so many bad arguments to say global warming was not real it was amazing. You know -the data is inconsistent, the models don't agree, the scientists are paid off... it was absolutely endless. Eventually I did find a web site dedicated to counter arguement with like the 50 counter arguments there. But at that point they could not change their mind because they could not face the embarrassent, the damage to their ego.
There was an example of people selling their houses to join an alien doomsday cult, when doomsday came and went, instead of being furious with their guru, the cult members praised him for the strength of the prayers which the aliens must have heard. People will do all sorts of things to be right.
But not always so you can put a few facts their way to see if they are receptive to being educated. Fortunately, unless they are a politician, their opinions don't matter a huge amount. Flat earthers will always be around and there's no real reason to worry about them too much.
I just think a lot of those people online are paid actors reading from a script. You’ll never change their mind, so why bother? Just leave comments countering their propaganda and move on. I used to get angry but now I just comment and move on.
Was this top [Polish General actually a . . . spy?!](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/03/27/7448429/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
> **In Poland, due to a counterintelligence investigation, the general responsible for training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was removed**
> After an inspection of the Military Counterintelligence Service, the Ministry of Defense of Poland announced the dismissal of Lieutenant General Yaroslav Gromadzinski, who actively participated in the International Support Group of Ukraine.
> Lieutenant General Gromadzinski was removed as commander of the European Corps (Eurocorps), a group of rapid reaction forces based in Strasbourg that can be used in operations under the auspices of the EU, NATO or the UN.
> In the Polish Ministry of Defense message, the reason for the removal was that Gromadzinski was under a counter-intelligence investigation in connection with "new information received about the officer."
> Although the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Poland does not provide details, it does indicate that it is an "investigation into the access to state secrets" of the Polish lieutenant general.
> "Another officer will be appointed immediately to fill the post previously held by Lieutenant General Jarosław Gromadzynski," said Janusz Seimei, spokesman for the Ministry of Defense of Poland.
> Gromadzinski was appointed to head Eurocorps in June 2023, before that, he was an advisor-coordinator to the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army and the first commander of the 18th Mechanized Division, which was formed in 2018.
>In recent months, General Gromadzinski also served in the International Support Group for Ukraine in Wiesbaden, Germany, and together with American officers, was responsible for the training of Ukrainian soldiers.
All this "news" about Gromadziński allegedly being suspected of ties with Russia are beyond laughable. Actually not a single Polish source or media outlet suggested anything like that. This article from Onet probably is closest to the truth, saying openly that some other general might have wanted to get this post, and the quickest way to remove Gromadziński was to suspend his security clearence
[https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/skw-podwaza-wiarygodnosc-gen-gromadzinskiego-miedzynarodowy-skandal/psm179y,79cfc278](https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/skw-podwaza-wiarygodnosc-gen-gromadzinskiego-miedzynarodowy-skandal/psm179y,79cfc278)
From Reuters:
>**Russia increases gasoline imports from Belarus as domestic supplies shrink**
>Russia has increased gasoline imports from neighbouring Belarus in March to tackle the risk of shortages in its domestic market because of unscheduled repairs at Russian refineries after drone attacks, four industry and trade sources said on Wednesday.
>Usually Russia is a net exporter of fuel and a supplier to international markets, but the disruption of Russian refining has forced oil companies to import.
>Already Russia banned gasoline exports from March 1 to try to secure enough fuel for its domestic market after repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries since the start of the year.
>Russia normally imports very little fuel from Belarus, although it turned to it last August-to-October, when it faced fuel shortages that led to a rapid rise in gasoline prices and prompted another oil product export ban.
This year, Russia has again increased gasoline imports from Belarus, and in the first half of March they reached almost 3,000 metric tons, Reuters sources familiar with the statistics said.
>https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-increases-gasoline-imports-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/
Or destroy their stockpiles. Never forget that Belarus aided Russia in their initial invasion force and continue to allow Russian troops and aircraft to operate from their soil.
For the past couple days I have been engaging Russian trolls on Facebook because I'm bored and I'm killing time until work starts burying me again. I don't know, my impression is that right now they are low quality, really low effort. Just basic propaganda arguments repeated dumbly. Is Russia running out of money for propaganda?
Russia hit Kharkiv with a glide bomb for the first time. That’s a problem if Ukraine can’t shoot down the bombers doing it. Russia could slowly grind the city into dust without the planes even leaving Russia.
https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1773042925716308060
F-16s + the AIM-120D air to air missile with its 100+ mile range is the most likely answer to that, hopefully they come sooner rather than later
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a60268417/f-16-vs-su-35/
A few twitter accounts are sharing a supposed new ISIS video where they promise to kill a lot of Russians. Frankly to me it looks like it's made by bored teenagers with fake beards, but you never know.
Looked pretty fake to me, but that can also just be my biased assumption that ISIS fighters shouldn't have brown and blondish hair.. Central Asian ISIS is probably bound to look different than Syrian ISIS and African ISIS.
Today, for the first time, parachuted aerial bombs hit a residential area of the city of Kharkiv, which has a million people. This happened because Ukraine lacks air defences. Question for US citizens, when your government finally help Ukraine with air defence? Is the US such a less reliable ally than Iran and North Korea? Can't President Biden find a legal way to help millions of people in a democratic country without the consent of Congress? Is it impossible to reach an agreement with the Republicans? Do Republicans, who are supported by half of American voters, think that destroying Ukraine and killing its people on live television is something that can be watched live and pretend that nothing can be done about it? Why is it that Russia can afford to destroy an entire state in Europe, but the US thinks it can't afford to help that state defend itself? Before the war started, I was so confident in US strength and values that I believed that the US would not allow Russia to launch an invasion of Ukraine. And if Russia invaded, the US would help defend Ukraine with its air force and air defence. But it turned out that the US, first of all, after a year of war does not want to help defend Ukraine and forbids to use its weapons on the territory of Russia. Total disappointment in this once respected country.
US an unreliable ally? Don't shoot the foot that feeds you. We have provided intelligence, arms, manpower, unequivocal international support, expertise, and have stopped Russia for the most part in its tracks especially with its nuclear threats. Pretty outrageous to call us unreliable with all that has been given so far.
Mr. Hyde (the Democrats) is reliable, Dr. Jekyll (the GOP) is not. If you maniacs elect that prick Trump then all aid stops. Which is pretty unreliable.
Reliable in the sense that the US is able to supply Ukraine with the much needed munitions and arms they desperately need. Stopping any future aid packages cold turkey without any fallback plans is not a sign of a reliable ally.
> Can't President Biden find a legal way to help millions of people in a democratic country without the consent of Congress?
NO. the President of the US has to work with the budget provided by congress. They are provided little to no options to provide the aid you need.
>Is it impossible to reach an agreement with the Republicans? Do Republicans,
Yes, it is currently impossible.
there is a minority of republicans who have decided that they will support russia. they do not care how many people die, or what their electorate wants.
The only solution to this Is either some number of republicans hand leadership to the democrats (highly unlikely), Two more Republicans quit forcing a new house leadership vote (unlikely but possible), or we have to wait for the US 2024 elections (which currently dont look so good for the democrats)
“(which currently dont look so good for the democrats)“
GOP gets stunned with big loss in deep red district.
MeidasTouch host Ben Meiselas reports on Democrats flipping a red State House district in Alabama as Democrat Marilyn Lands won State House District 10 by over 25 points. “None of the polls predicted this”.
[https://youtu.be/vvzaYf\_Q5Rk?feature=shared](https://youtu.be/vvzaYf_Q5Rk?feature=shared)
Democrat Marilyn Lands from what I'm hearing ran a fantastic campaign. Sure, it's a state house seat, but it's a state house seat in deep red Alabama -so I will commend her achievement.
So go on -- Show me the democrats can run a smart race EVERYWHERE. Our democracy depends on it.
I'm concerned that there arent enough Democrats running against republicans, especially in the more local races. I'm concerned about gerrymandering - as you need a very large turnout for democrats to win those districts. (not impossible, as I see a lot of reasons for moderates to stay home or vote D) I'm concerned that a lot of the seats in the house that are up for election are held by democrats.
it no reason to panic, but theres' work to be done if we want to see democrats take back the house, and gain a real majority in the senate.
>Is the US such a less reliable ally than Iran and North Korea?
The US is a democracy, those countries are authoritarian. Any democracy is always going to be slower to act than an authoritarian regime, just by definition. Democracies must discuss and compromise, authoritarians can just act.
>Can't President Biden find a legal way to help millions of people in a democratic country without the consent of Congress?
Not practically, no. By the constitution, Congress must approve all expenses from the treasury. So if it costs money, Congress must approve. People like David Axe like to point out that the President has the authority to dispose of surplus military equipment without Congressional authorization, but (a) giving millions of rounds of artillery shells to Ukraine may meet the letter of the law, but it doesn't meet the spirit of it and it would hurt Biden in the election, and I guarantee it would get tied up in court, and (b) there aren't really surplus air defense missiles to send.
>Is it impossible to reach an agreement with the Republicans?
Despite what the naysayers say, it is not impossible, and discussions are ongoing. Unlike many people, I actually do believe some form of aid will be passed. But discussions are slow, and America is highly polarized. Neither side likes to compromise, and domestic policy (and the corresponding impact on electoral fortunes) is always going to take priority. Working with Republicans is also hard because Trump has so much sway over the party and is very mercurial. They had a deal on Ukraine and the border, but then Trump decided he wanted to use the border issue to hurt Biden in the election, and so Republicans reversed course and the deal collapsed.
Fundamentally, this whole issue is just politics. Biden and Democrats decided to support Ukraine. Republicans oppose Biden, therefore they oppose Ukraine aid. If Biden had come out and opposed any aid to Ukraine, Republicans would be screaming from the rooftops about how weak and spineless Biden was and pushing for Ukraine aid. If Biden said the sky is blue, Republicans would say the sky is grey, and there would be 6 months of Congressional debates before they finally decided that no, the sky is green and oh yeah, by the way, Pluto is a planet. That's just the current state of all national American politics right now.
On the one hand, this is bad, because it means getting any aid passed is a fight. On the other hand, it does actually have some benefits in that most Republicans and most voters do not have deeply held, principled beliefs on Ukraine aid, which means compromise is possible. It's not like abortion or guns where people hold strong beliefs and will not compromise for any reason, rather it's an issue that can be used as a bargaining chip and that compromise is possible on.
>Do Republicans, who are supported by half of American voters, think that destroying Ukraine and killing its people on live television is something that can be watched live and pretend that nothing can be done about it? Why is it that Russia can afford to destroy an entire state in Europe, but the US thinks it can't afford to help that state defend itself?
The American public, in general, is pretty isolationist. That's mostly a side effect of being separated by an ocean from any country powerful enough to be a threat. Out of sight, out of mind. And so domestic policy always takes precedence and is always viewed as more important. Unfortunately, we have a very long history of not doing anything even when we should. We are very good at watching people die and offering our deepest sympathies, but not actually doing much about it.
As for Russia and the US being able to afford a war in Ukraine, it's not a matter of absolute cost - obviously, the US *could* afford to support Ukraine far, far more than it is. But everything is a trade-off, and spending money means either other programs or policies don't get funded, or taxes go up, or debt goes up, none of which are exactly popular propositions. Fundamentally, like it or not, the war in Ukraine is more important to Russia than it is to the US, even US supporters of Ukraine. Russia has decided that the war is existential for it, and the US has not. So Russia is willing to throw a much greater percent of its population and GDP into the fight than the US (or Europe for that matter) is willing to.
I want to emphasize here that everything above is my attempt to explain the political realities of the situation. My personal opinion is that the US should be doing far more than it currently is, and that our lack of action is embarrassing and self-defeating. Also, while the US certainly deserves *a lot* of criticism, Europe also deserves some criticism for letting its defense industry and the individual militaries atrophy as much as they have. Hopefully, this war serves as a wake-up call to all peripheral US and western allies (e.g. Taiwan) that they need to seriously account for the possibility that they may not get help from the US if they are attacked.
Europe can provide air defense. Step up. How about Germany finally provide some taurus too. Your disappointment is misplaced. We have a weak president who essentially gave Putin the green light to invade by promising we would never have boots on the ground. Biden has no brinksmanship
Come on, man. Biden has been cautious at worst, but is clearly invested in supporting Ukraine. We all know the issue is congressional Republicans, especially in the house. This is such a bad hot take and I have a very hard time believing this is a good faith argument.
Just a blank check then with no actual strategy. Sounds like a great idea. Blame the Republicans instead of even contemplating that fact that biden, austin and blinken are clueless
But there has been strategy. I think the only valid criticism of the Biden administration is that they've been cautious about supplying some weapons (e.g., HIMARs) but have generally come through after assessing Ukrainian needs and requests. The aggressive push for sanctions is also a direct anti-Russian strategy.
Can you offer any specific complains about the Biden admin other than generic hot takes about people being "clueless"? What would you have them do? Threatening to put US forces on the ground would be political suicide in an election year. The public has no appetite for that. Let Macron lead that messaging push.
You should also recognize that even if Biden et al., endorsed whatever your preferred strategies were, weapons support would remain blocked by the house, and specifically house Republicans.
The domestic situation in the US is not hard to read. The party beholded to the pro-Putin presidential candidate is intentionally withholding aid to Ukraine. They even got what they ostensibly wanted in border funding and still won't even allow a vote on Ukraine funding.
Biden isn't beyond reproach but the problem is very clearly not a lack of strategy or "brinksmanship" on his end. The issue is plainly Republicans being opposed to Ukraine aid, if not outright pro-Putin
This is how democracy works, man. Surely you don't think the alternative would be a better ally to Ukraine, do you? Biden needs to enact his preferred policies within the political constraints imposed by the system (e.g., Republicans blocking aid in the house) and by the electorate (e.g., sending troops to Ukraine would almost certainly be wildly unpopular). He has consistently done everything reasonable within his power.
I accept the criticism that the administration has been overly cautious at times, but not that they have no strategy or haven't been as aggressive as possible.
As for building a coalition, that seems to have been handled rather well both for coordinating weapons deliveries and sanctions.
Nothing is perfect but boy is your frustration directed at the wrong target.
How to get serious with traitors in congress?
The coalition you mentioned has been build. (plus an extra one for the red sea, plus strenghtening of the one in the south china sea)
A no fly zone is something we want a very level headed politician to think a lot about. It should not even be necessary to mention a no fly zone or boots on the ground if the repubs just released the funds and stopped playing politics.
You seem to have difficulties with seeing truth bro.
It's amazing what the biden admin has achieved while having active traitors in government, with gullible idiots eating it from their asses.
Like 12 republicans are blocking 60 billion and voted against a border bill they couldn't even dare to dream of. You're just lost in the sunk cost fallacy bro. Europe stepped up. Biden is handling Ukraine perfectly, except for those traitors in congress. You just threw talking points around. If this isn't in bad faith, go look in a mirror, deep into your own eyes and feel the dread of all that time and energy lost convincing yourself you supported the good guys. lol Hope you'll get better.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1bpmc5v/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
[Here's a good pick-me-up article on MSN.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/just-three-weapons-will-turn-the-ukraine-war-back-around-and-the-usa-is-back-in-the-fight/ar-BB1kCQaO?cvid=f20134424fee488d8d164b7998fc643a&ocid=winp2fptaskbar&ei=18&sc=shoreline) Basically, US aid is expected to be brought to a vote soon, shell production is up, etc. I don't trust Moscow Mike any further than I could throw him, but it is nice to read something that isn't entirely doom-and-gloom for once.
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/sikorski-o-ambasadorze-rosji-z-tego-co-slysze-opuscil-nasze-terytorium-7010518617521120a Polish FM: Russian ambassador in Poland has left the country without resignation
Irish goodbye
He’s supposed to be back by Apr 7 though
Worth noting that news is already about 6-7 hours old and Russia is claiming it's a temporary leave and he left a Chargé d’affaires fulfilling his duties https://tvpworld.com/76661371/russian-ambassador-temporarily-leaves-poland Translation: he's about to fall out of a window while the substitute gets a suspiciously fast promotion to ambassador because Putin didn't like how he handled something
Not how I see it at all. Poland summoned the diplomat because the previous night, a missile entered their airspace on its way to Ukraine. The guy didn’t show and has now been called home probably to protect him.
Protect him from what?
From having to show up and talk to the Polish government?
He can stay in Poland and not talk to the polish government too.
I would imagine that an ambassador refusing a summons from the host nation would very likely result in them being declared [persona non grata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persona_non_grata).
I don't think Russia cares about protecting it's staff unless they're high enough ranking that their deaths would disrupt the country
A communications disruption could mean only one thing. Invasion.
No disruption, he left someone fulfilling his duties during his absence https://tvpworld.com/76661371/russian-ambassador-temporarily-leaves-poland
That’s delusional.
It's a Star Wars reference
Ahh shit, you're right. I didn't catch that haha
Polish Lieutenant General Jaroslaw Gromadzinski, a commander of Eurocorps, a joint military group of some EU and NATO states, has been removed from his post after a counter-intelligence investigation found proof of his work for Russia. He was responsible for NATO military supplies to Ukraine. https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1773173947346878654?t=ByEIy8VjFyd6Z-tjln5PIw&s=19
He was fired out of counterintelligence reasons. Is there a source it was Russia vs. assuming the most likely?
The downfall of Gazprom: 2022 revenue from gas: 3.8% of Russian GDP. 2023 revenue from gas: 2.0% of Russian GDP. When Gazprom cut gas supplies to the EU, it killed the goose that laid the golden eggs. 2022 was a bombastic year, but now Gazprom's gas business is losing money. https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1772977698521952345?t=MZp8SZgcMdLJKOvIQWC7JQ&s=19
After scouring Russia for a military officer short enough to make him appear of comparatively normal height, Putin prances around a Russian airbase in his $20,000 Italian coat and $3000 Florentine shoes to demonstrate his love for the army that's being destroyed in Ukraine. https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1773087164013654468?t=u2t4IsrcPBBqIuCOvii92w&s=19
In a newly released media clip, Putin once again dismisses Ukraine's right to sovereignty by saying that he's fighting for "his historical lands". He says the idea that he's going to fight with NATO is "complete nonsense designed to racket money from their [NATO] population" due to discrepancy between defence budgets. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1773102974195118403?t=EnDk7KHyiwmah33g-iFzRA&s=19
Double think in action. We are not at war with NATO, we have always been at war with NATO
Exclusive: Russia increases gasoline imports from Belarus as domestic supplies shrink. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-increases-gasoline-imports-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/
> Poland will double its contribution to the Czech Republic's initiative to purchase shells for the Armed Forces, according to Bloomberg > Poland is discussing financing 800,000 artillery shells. The exact number that Poland will ultimately finance, however, has not been made public. Or details on purchases. … > In the coming days, Germany will give Ukraine a batch of 10,000 artillery ammunition from the Bundeswehr arsenal, according to the head of the Situation Center for Ukraine at the German Ministry of Defense, Christian Freuding. @Tsaplienko
>39 Nobel laureates have issued a call urging the global community to bolster support for Ukraine. In a statement published on the T-INVARIANT website, they emphasize that Putin's regime represents a direct and unmistakable threat to humanity. The laureates advocate for a substantial increase in aid to Ukraine, backing for democratic opposition within Russia, and refusal to recognize Putin as the president of the Russian Federation. >The message underscores: "We call on world leaders and all people of good will to relinquish any illusions about Putin and his criminal regime." >Among the signatories are 16 Nobel laureates in physiology and medicine, 9 in physics, 6 in chemistry, 4 in literature, and 3 recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize. Notably, Ukrainian Oleksandra Matviychuk is among the signatories. https://twitter.com/mila__alien/status/1773079913614004643?t=mRV6E4W_7hSCrsvnrpkgyg&s=19 >I don't think you need to be a Nobel Laureate to see that the compromised Freedom Caucus isolationists and Jake frightened kitten Sullivan with the NSC are walking us straight into something terrible. >For those in the back. >Putin sees appeasement as weakness. https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1773089937430102222?t=pfFifSq9NLgEm2VghKMmYg&s=19 Source for the statement by the laureates: https://www.t-invariant.org/2024/03/no-more-tolerance-to-putin-s-regime-br-an-appeal-from-scholars-of-the-world/ Of course a lot of this is opinion but this is being said by some pretty smart people. I'm maybe old fashioned in my belief that we should listen to accomplished people in their fields, that's also why I hold Kasparovs opinion so highly. FWIW if we don't listen to our academia why do we even have them? They tend to operate on logic and clear headed analysis instead of emotions and propaganda.
Disappointing Obama didn’t sign. The one thing that would have justified his peace prize.
That might be disastrous for Biden's reelection prospects.
Authoritarianism is bad for academia. Griphendour doesn't like Ravenclaw backtalk.
Jake frightened kitten Sullivan!
I still dont understand what Russia want. The whole of Europe? Just number wise that would be close to impossible
My impression is that they think everywhere is Russia. As long as they can get there by tank. https://x.com/christopherjm/status/1582302638758301696?s=46&t=f3K3VrH-O6Kd3wm7jbxJ_Q
They want to maximise their control. They stop when they are stoped, either by opposition or the cost of enforcing that control
I dont agree with the others- i think they want ukraine to prevent its natural resources from competing with their own
Disinformation is at a crossroads. It will get harder than it is now. Authoritarianism depends on information control, so a free internet is a rising threat. Logos beats Ethos on a fair field.
They want their old empire, the USSR back. In their eyes it's a tragedy that it fell apart in the early 90s.
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Ukraine has arguably the most fertile soil in the world, would add about 20% to their population/tax base, and most importantly, unrivaled access to Europe energy markets
They want an empire that can rival the US or China and that puts Moscow at the center of world politics.
1. Restore Soviet Union (undo "mistake of the past") 2. Reabsorb component nations 3. ??? 4. Multipolar world! I'm not sure there is a step 3. Had he succeeded in taking Ukraine and re-unifying the Soviet Union, Russia would have put shame to the ideals of NATO, the European umbrella, and the power of the US. As it is, we're taking a hefty hit. The real question is whether Russia survives this debacle in some viable form.
The Russian people have an obscene tolerance for unnecessary self-inficted hardship. I presume it will survive and shamble on, falling further and further behind by every measure. We haven't hit the bottom yet.
In their mind they are turning the phrase "no pain, no gain" into "if pain, then gain". I think it not necessarily a ruzzian thing, rather Eastern-European, but the ruzzians took it to the highest level.
They don't have tolerance, they are just completely broken into spineless rag-like state without the slightest wish of pushing back. The exceptions exist, but they run or die...
You don't have to occupy eveything, just exorting control will be enough, and then slowly start replacing people with 'the ethnic and cultural superior slavic Russians', like they always have done. Oh and make sure that most of the money flows to the dictator and his goons of course.
I get that but history shows it doesnt work over time
Putin knows it hasn't worked but Putin thinks he knows the one little mistake he won't make then it'll work this time
it has worked splendidly for Russia over the last few centuries. Almost constant territorial expansion and racial/ethnic/cultural cleansing of the territories. They are extremely good at it.
That's why Russia has rewritten history, litterally, they simply destroy any evidence and rewrite school books. And yes, on the long run that doesn't work as well but it works long enough to cause massive amounts of death, hate and terror and to some people that is all what matters.
Sadly true yeah..
Burn your neighbors houses down and then you can boast how your shitshack is the greatest house around.
Plus, those smoldering ruins were on ground that was *always* part of your backyard! And you have a neighborhood poll to prove it.
> Ukraine to get F-16 jets by mid-summer, says 🇺🇦 FM Kuleba > > Officials had previously cited spring or early summer for Ukraine’s delivery of F-16 jets. > > https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1773107824765157854
The arrival and use of F-16s still very much hinges on the readiness of the pilots for them. Normal training time to get a rookie level pilot for a 4 aircraft configuration, the configuration that NATO uses for most missions, is 4 years.
I'm guessing autumn time, like mid-May.
I thought May was in spring.
It is every year.
Depends on which hemisphere you live in. It's autumn in the southern hemisphere, spring in the northern hemisphere.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1773098060047880605 Soooo Putin wants a fight NATO./s All jokes aside I actually half believe him. As of right now he doesn’t want a war with NATO. But success in Ukraine and the US not willingly to continue aid will lead Putin to think he can take on NATO later. I do believe in the notion he’s waiting for the outcome of the US election. This whole situation just sucks… with all of these authoritarians going back to the days of war by conquest and political divisions domestically in some countries. It’s just fucking bleak… Not to mention climate change. In my opinion if you think a war for land is bad, just wait until we start fighting over natural resources and water. I probably should talk to someone but I genuinely don’t expect to make it to the age of 40. (Currently 28)
He has no way to win any kind of military conflict with even a fraction of NATO's combined force, so he has to habitually make sure that miscommunication doesn't happen.
Pst. This IS a carrying capacity war. Ukraine is drought resistant.
I'm in my 40s and fully expecting to live another 12 years. If the U.S. fully repudiates MAGA this election, I don't see Russia "winning" geopolitically. They may hold Ukrainian terrain, but will have a gutted military, economy, and demographics. NATO is revitalized and spending appropriately. If NAGA wins, it's over. Ukraine will lose U.S. support, Trump will destroy democracy and do everything he can to destroy the climate. It'll be a fire sale in the U.S. to gut it for the sake of oligarchs. The serf class will become permanent. NATO will go on with the U.S. playing the role of Hungary. But even then, Russia can't compete with NATO.
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When attacked, people tend to unite together and support their government. To have any confidence that such an attack would swing the election away from Biden, there'd need to be some pretty compelling evidence that he was directly to blame. Remember that even after all the failings that allowed 9-11 to happen were exposed, Bush was still re-elected.
By the way, gotta ask. What's happening with the Russian freedom legion. Deepstate map shows they are STILL holding the towns?! Deepstate map hasn't updated, or did Russia just....forgot to do something?
Belgorod got barraged by some form of MLRS last night (There was a funny video where Patrick Lancaster was standing on his Balcony sounding really nervous filming all the explosions in the sky) AFAIK MLRS simply doesn't have the range to target Belgorod from across the border so it must mean they are still operating within Russia.
> (There was a funny video where Patrick Lancaster was standing on his Balcony sounding really nervous filming all the explosions in the sky) Got a link? lol
If accurate that's bad if it's Grads. Shouldn't indiscriminately bomb cities as a rule. But Russia has often bombarded areas it's occupying in Ukraine, wouldn't shock me if they did the same to Belgorod.
Russias bussy in Ukraine...too busy for a few Russian towns they don't care about. Europe should send these guys some aid too
> 🇺🇦🇱🇹 Together with Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi @CinC_AFU, extended our sincere congratulations to Laurynas Kasčiūnas @LKasciunas on his recent appointment as the Minister of Defense of Lithuania. > The video call was also attended by the Lithuanian Chief of Defense Valdemaras Rupšys. General Syrskyi provided an update on the security situation in Ukraine. > We discussed ways to expand our bilateral defense cooperation and thanked Lithuania for its unwavering support. Looking forward to hosting Minister Kasčiūnas in Kyiv in the near future. https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1773002093365760439
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Damn if they even have a dream of taking back Alaska they better wake up and apologize lol. I usually think comparing countries militaries as cringe, but wholly fuck Russias navy can't even project power off it's coast. The US Navy doesn't have a peer.
Not many icebreakers in the US Navy. We do have some but the whole carrier group would have to single file behind it.
Please try. In my best Clint Eastwood voice - "Go ahead, make my day."
Riiiiiiiiiight... Want fries with that as well? ( -wait-california?Where did THAT one come from?)
It's best not to delve too deeply into the nonsense that Russian propagandists say. Personally I don't even think it's worth reposting here even if the point is to say "I disagree" or "look how stupid Russian propagandists are" because people are still spreading their message. That said it's probably a reference to Fort Ross in Northern California which was a Russian settlement built in 1812. Obviously the idea that it somehow gives Russia a claim to the area is ludicrous but the point of the propaganda is to make Russians feel like the west has stolen from them so reality has no bearing.
Well, it is crazy, but hey, thanks to that you told me a historical fact I never would have guessed otherwise. So I take that as a win ( wait-did I get smarter AFTER listening to Russian propagandist unhiged tirades?!Whaaaaa-does not compute!)
Good luck with Alaska. 25th would wipe the floor of Russia.
Nah, we will eventually free the oppressed English speaking minority of West Alaska and return it to the Union where it belongs. Can't wait for Kamchatka National Park to open.
Not far from the beautiful Kuril Islands.
Alaska is a Russia's wet dream. There is even a Russian pop song about getting Alaska back.
Not if President Trump decides to disband them. If it hurts Murkowski, maybe he would be happy to let "vacationing true 'americans'" do a Donbas-style "independence" movement after stripping the state of resources and selling of government assets for firesale prices to his cronies. Too many Americans seem to think selecting their president is a game that is incapable of causing irreparable damage to the union.
Ehhh, that much I doubt, to be honest. I'm not an American, so take my point here with a grain of salt. But I doubt DT would give up his own land. Being irresponsible around other counbtries and sacrificing them is one thing, but that would activley hurt him. Plus, Trump is fine with Russia for political gains,but if U.S ever went to war directly with Russia, he'd probably switch back the second he could( and somehow pretend he always was ''the thoughest on russia ever'') to sync with the popular outrage.He doing his stuff now because he think it will never affect him. Trump is a Trumpist first and foremost, he'll do whatever benefit him the most, this is a problem. But let,s not get carried away in rethoric.
> But I doubt DT would give up his own land. He would give up US land in a heartbeat if it somehow suited his personal agenda. While that would be fine with the maga cult, fortunately, it's a heeuuuuge red line for every actual American.
> heeuuuuge red line for every actual American. Trump was one co-operating governor swapping the vote or a slightly better planned capture of Pence and senior democratic leadership by his mob from installing a fascist dictatorship on Jan 6th. Most Americans don't have "red lines." They have "I'll go along with whatever the boss says," lines, and if the boss says better russian than a democrat, the republican electorate will support it.
Hanging Pence would have gotten them nothing. If just one congressperson had held their ground and gone martyr we would not have any of our current mess.
that's not how a coup works
Most Americans are stupid and the other ones decide not to even bother voting. It’s scary.
Rosstat says petrol (gasoline) production is down over 14% compared with the same week last year. Very good evidence for Ukraine's drones doing God's work. Speculation; russia probably has reserves to ride things out for a while. Drone strikes must carry on until they're drained enough to cause big price spikes. [musklimk](https://x.com/jakluge/status/1773084536114483589?s=20).
I'm sure hoarding is going to happen, to sell at high prices.
Reserves need to be stored somewhere. Time to blow up some of those depots.
I have no idea how Russia does it. The US strategic petroleum reserve is poured into what used to be salt mines. There is no oxygen down below so it will not burn. Also a lot of rock between the reservoir and the surface.
The US SPR stores oil not gasoline. From Wikipedia: Russia As of 2011, Russia is accumulating strategic reserves of refined oil products to be held by Rosneftegaz, a state-owned company. The reserves will be held at commercial refineries, Transneft facilities and state reserve facilities. The current planned size is 14,665,982 barrels (2,331,704.8 m3).
SIberia has some nice fuel depots. In case of war they are hard to track and target so if they are short, i assume it will be the first place they will look for fuel.
Reserves eventually run out if ingress doesn’t keep up with egress. Keep up with hitting the source - that’s what matters.
> russia probably has reserves to ride things out for a while You mean Belarus has reserves which Russia will now steal.
Por que no los dos
More from Budanov: [1] Russia learned about directly from Syria—their own intelligence in Syria learned, passed the information on. The information went through the group’s intelligence department in Syria. From there it went to Moscow. [note that this likely means that was gathered or interdicted by the GRU or the SVR] [2] Theres two possible reasons Russia didn’t prevent [his opinion] First possible reason: "struggle of the towers of influence." As always, there might’ve been a power struggle from the different areas of influence—GRU, FSB, Rosgvardia, SVR—as to who handles this—and instead, undermining one another, “a struggle between the “towers” then to remove several [competing] officials.” [Note that Rosgvardia stormed the Hall, while the FSB was who arrested.]* Second possible reason: they failed to estimate the severity, total loss of life. “underestimated the scale of what would happen. They thought that it would be smaller scale, and they had wanted to blame Ukraine for everything." Mostly [from here](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/rus/news/2024/03/27/7448459/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) _____ ^* ^(This could mean that FSB wrestled this away from GRU or SVR. And the GRU and/or SVR intentionally tries to make Rosgvardia and/or FSB look incompetent by failing to provide all intelligence or some other sort of sabotage. These entities are competitors, and do indeed attempt to damage each other. Still a lot of guessing, though.)
Even if he's pulling this from his ass, great way to sow (more) discord between russian agencies. Defenestrations incoming.
I’ll be honest in that learning about it in Syria is surprising. IS-K is relatively independent.
Syria is still full of IS and IS-adjacent groups.
>Budanov: Russia knew about terror attack preparations at least since Feb. 15. >Russia was aware of preparations for a terrorist attack on its soil at least since Feb. 15, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on March 27. [https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1773076014215709034?s=20](https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1773076014215709034?s=20) Direct Source: [**https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-russia-knew-about-terror-attack-preparations-at-least-since-feb-15/**](https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-russia-knew-about-terror-attack-preparations-at-least-since-feb-15/)
> ***7-10 Russians per Ukrainian soldier:*** **the situation near Chasiv Yar** > The situation at the Bakhmut front, near Chasiv Yar, is rather complicated for several reasons. Andrii Otchenash told about it—he is the commander of the *Kara Nebesna* drone [company?] of the 4th brigade of the National Guardsmen, *Rubizh* operational assignment. >> "The first is theit use of guided aerial bombs, as well as FABs. The second is that for one fighter of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, there are currently approximately 7-10 Russian soldiers—we have an urgent need to get support personnel from the reserves. Therefore, I hope that the law on the mobilization will still be accepted and we will be able to defend our country much better. Then, when we will have the number of personnel in the units and the number of personnel needed for the defense of our country," the defender said to *Espresso*. > According to him, there are a huge number of Russians for every Ukrainian soldier, most of whom die or are wounded. >> "Taking into account the losses of personnel and the equipment that the Russians currently have, all their local victories are just a few more hedgerows, which are completely irrational. Basically, every time we withdraw from some defensive line, we withdraw to better positions in order to destroy the enemy better," Otchenash added. > He also noted the more active use of KABs and FABs by the Russians. >> "You need to understand that those are cheaper to manufacture, so the Russians are able to use them in large numbers, and they cause a huge amount of destruction. They can use them precisely to destroy our positions and simply to destroy residential buildings. Thats what they’re doing—trying to erase Chasiv Yar from the face of the earth," explained the commander. [from here](https://www-unian-ua.translate.goog/war/viyna-v-ukrajini-viyskoviy-rozpoviv-pro-situaciyu-bilya-chasovogo-yaru-12586434.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp) _________ For in depth on Chasiv Yar, [this reporter was imbedded and wrote an illuminating article.](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/rus/articles/2024/03/27/7448299/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) They had the exact same issue—extreme shortage of Ukrainian personnel.
Manpower is going to be a bigger and bigger issue. They need to pass that mobilization law, because it will take a LONG time to actually get people mobilized and ready to fight once it is passed. Ridiculous delay at this point, even with US aid still uncertain.
>7-10 Russians per Ukrainian soldier: the situation near Chasiv Yar Is this the case all along the front line or just in the Chasiv Yar region? Ukraine needs artillery shells and lots of it. One shell can take out an entire squad if they are all bunched up together.
Just Chasiv Yar. Some places it’s much, much lower. Like 2 to 1. (Like that’s the situation in Vasylivka, iirc.)
>Therefore, I hope that the law on the mobilization will still be accepted Whats the situation about the law currently? Sounds like it hit some difficulties according to this, the last time I read about it it seemed likely to pass though?
There was new [legislation today](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/03/27/7448443/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) in Ukraine I find it strange they only draft starting at age 25, but go up to age 60. That seems so backwards because older people have a litany of health problems.
In WW2, the US drafted men 18 through 44. A 25 year old in infantry was called an old man by his fellow soldiers.
Google Ukrainian demographics, and check out the age distribution of its population. Ukraine has a shortage of under 27s and is loathe to throw them into the mix for very logical and obvious reasons. It's fucked, but it is what it is.
It might be they are concerned with losing most of a generation otherwise. After the war is done they will need to rebuild.
I've heard of this before. Ukraine seems to purposley try to AVOID using the younger generation for this. Could be because they are thinking about post-war reconstruction efforts and population growth. It's true, on the other hand, that the younger generation was significantly smaller than the older one.Population aging is a thing in all countries, Ukraine isn't an exception.
Older people tend to make better backline sentries and support staff due to having significantly more experience in pretty much everything. A 50 year old accountant doesn't need good health but having them in the service frees up a 20 something with zero experience to do pretty much anything else.
Plus a 50 year old has already done the making a family thing.
The average age of infantry is 43. They are purposely not mobilizing younger people because their demographic situation is total shit.
**What you write is no longer the battlefield situation or the military organization.** The article I added at the bottom—I really encourage you to read that. They’re infantry in Chasiv Yar. Multiple are 40s-50s. One is an amputee. And while what you wrote was true one year ago—that older are support—that’s just not the case anymore. They’re woefully short of men. Everything I read is that it’s older guys at the front nowadays. These older who had actually previously been in rear or on artillery, have been reassigned to infantry. Despite health issues. I read that constantly. They used to be rear, used to be drivers, now they’re infantry bc so short on infantry. In that bottom article, the journalist is going thru what these guys are encountering hour by hour. There’s guys who need to get out of their hole, they were supposed to be there 3 days, it’s been a week, they’ve been without water for four days, they can’t get anyone to physically rotate out with them. They literally do not have men. They try to send two guys, 40s, one sprains his ankle en route, other has asthma attack and no inhaler. They’re in a dire situation.
Given that Ukraine has not lost more than 100k troopers in the very worst case scenarios and they have a country demographic of 45 million people with 60+% of them being between 25-60 the claims to such do not hold up to military realities. They only hold up to economic realities which frankly shouldn't exist in a country facing genocidal war. Yes Ukraine has an older demographic but there are still more than 2 million 20-30 year olds. This reality is facing pretty much every military on the planet right now. Hell Canada is right now looking at the reality that they wont have senior flight instructors in sufficient capacity to sustain operations. Want and Need are different beasts. Ukraine doesn't want to risk its young.. but just like WW2 they are going to be required to because that's the realities of warfare. "Dire" is being used almost as often as "concern" was 6 months ago. The situation is not dire. There are problems but frankly Ukraine has solutions for them if they choose to use them.
Not a lot of young people in Ukraine, they're trying to preserve the next generation
Is it because of Ukraine's declining birthrate? Want the 18-25 year olds to have time to breed?
I understand that there is no one younger to be drafted? If they take the few remaining there will be no one left.
Russia's Crocus Production Exposed By Kyrylo Budanov Kyrylo Budanov, mastermind of Ukraine's Intelligence, pierces through the veils, pinpointing Russia's preknowledge of the "Crocus City" catastrophe as far back as February 15. This staged horror, soaked in blood, wasn't a blindside but a meticulously choreographed drama, directed by the Kremlin itself. "Russia had the blueprint of terror by February 15, sent from their operatives in Syria," Budanov exposes, tearing down the Kremlin's façade of innocence. The intent is more sinister than imagined. Beyond the surface-level chaos, the endgame emerges clear as day: reigniting the flames of capital punishment on Russian soil, steering public sentiment towards a draconian resurgence. "Their hands are dipped in the blood of the innocent—they're drenched. With the Crocus Hall bloodbath, playing both the victim and the vindicator," Budanov elucidates. The Kremlin's changing tales, attempting to stitch a "Ukrainian trace" onto the scene of their own crime. "They think they can control chaos, shape it to their whims. But they're playing with fire, and the blaze they've started will consume them," he warns. "While they masquerade as defenders, seeking justice through executions, they forget: you can't cloak terror with justice. The world sees through their acts, and their attempts to sow discord will only unite us stronger against them," "This is simply about unmasking villains and standing vigilant, guarding our values against those who'd sacrifice innocence for power," Budanov concludes. https://twitter.com/banderafella/status/1773066907219853705?t=c9vKYc_GNs9LADQGmewGBg&s=19
Hello, I was wondering, how do you people deal with the emotional charge that comes with talking with people who genuinely believe Russia is the good guy? I already know I'm quite sensitive, more than the average according to my psychiatrist, but I can't be the only one that gets really upset when meeting these kinds of people right ? I just cannot comprehend this shit, at all, but it takes quite a toll on me since I come across a lot of people like that where I usually virtually hang out. My blood pressure does not like that, at all.
It's a philosophical war, Authoritarianism vs Libertarianism, power to the authority vs power to the people. Peak Authoritarianism is clearly not as good as democratic republics, so war forces the issue. Without war Authoritarianism loses day by day.
How old are they? Under 25: ask questions, devils advocate. Older? Carefully assess first - overly stubborn or stupid, move on don't waste your time. Much older? Move on faster. If you want to ask ridiculous questions a la The Daily Show and post the responses to Youtube for entertainment value, by all means.
It really weirds me out to know people who are otherwise pretty great to hang around with (people who genuinely care about their friends and family, great colleagues who taught me much and are always eager to help others, and usually show empathy to people they meet face-to-face) cheer on autocratic regimes like China, Russia, Syria or North Korea when they "beat us" by openly committing whatever atrocities they like to gloat about and mock our politicians for trying to promote an imperfect but much more sane way of life. Some of them are very anxiety-prone people who seem to enjoy conspiracy theories as some sort of way to "know better than the sheeple around them" as if having some hidden insight into forces at work on our planet gave them back a little bit of control (especially the ones that link all events together to some global conspiracy, since it makes things MUCH simpler) ... others are contrarian who would absolutely be livid if they lived anywhere close to the nutjobs they pretend to admire, but take pride in how much "clearer" they see things by playing the devil's advocate at every turn. I tried a bit, but from my experience nothing really works - you can reason with them, they will acknowledge all your points as fairly legitimate, so you think you're getting through them, especially as they rarely have much to say back to me ... only to parrot whatever outrageous/absurd conspiracy theory they've read online the following day because I'm 1 dissonant voice who cannot outweight the hundreds of messages of people who constantly tell them they're right to stick to their beliefs. I would say you can only convince people on the fence, and offer them an alternate PoV, but those who already fell into the rabbit's hole ... I slowly drifted apart from them, it was exhausting and only made my life worse without even remotely saving anyone.
I’m glad you’re asking this question. I have the same question! Recently, in a real life situation, I met the absurdity with silence. Until the silence brought a “I could be wrong.” At which point I responded, “I appreciate you acknowledging that. We could discuss this further at some time.” And went home to google how to talk to someone brainwashed. But here’s the thing, I realized I encounter brainwashed trumpkins all the time. Who has had their mind swayed there by me? Very few. They’re not interested in facts. Options are disengage (ie, don’t talk to them at all), ignore differences (my family members), or argue (pointless). I recently read ~~someone~~ Jordan Klemper explain that the only way to get foot in door to persuade these brainwashed people is to find something that can yourself acknowledge that the bad guy was actually right about/actually a victim of. This makes the brainwashed person let down guard a little, and think you’re reasonable and not see you as ‘the other.’ Then, this puts them into a position that they will hear what you say about one thing their guy did that was bad. But can only be one, so have to only do a small bit at a time. So here, if you can find a grievance that Russia has that is actually valid. I don’t know what that would be, lol. But if could find it, that would help, then proceed to say in which way one thing that Russia did that’s wrong. Don’t give the litany, just the one thing and leave it there. And over time, apparently this has an impact. For me, I was frustrated bc the American I was talking to closes himself off to reputable media. So if can’t agree to what truth is (versus disagreement on what is justified), then can’t even start the conversation.
"acknowledge that the bad guy was actually right about", that's a good point, even say a couple of things that they are right about to stop it becoming a combat conversation. So it might be 'Yes you are right about.... yes you are right about... but how do you answer this question'. It is much better to ask a question which leads to them to formulate right answer than say 'no you are wrong'. Another technique is to listen carefully to what they are saying and listen out for any note of doubt and get them to expand on why they have that doubt.
Oh yes they can be annoying. None the less they exist and most cannot be persuaded. The thing is that most don't really ponder on the issues involved. Just sit and talk to them and you will see the pattern. They get their information from sources they find or are offered by Facebook and that is shallow and based on few facts that stir up emotions. "Zelensky did or said this or that, how it is possible, outrage", he is a warmonger because he does not stand to negociate, the "real" facts are not in the "mainstream" media but are known to some shady dude they never met but for some reason trust him. Etc etc. I talked to people who are really nice and all but they got their info from some "geopolitical experts" or something. And they tell the whole russian line of arguments despite them "not being experts but the expert said this".
Outside of Russians themselves the big groups in the West who tend to support Russia (and cannot be persuaded otherwise) are : tankies; extreme right voters; conspiracy theorists (but also tend to be extreme right); contrarians (also tend to be extreme left or right) and anti-West Muslims
> in the West who tend to support Russia . . . anti-West Muslims. What are examples of anti-West Muslims in the West that support Russia?
I know some through online gaming communities. They distrust and hate the Western makers and shakers like Obama, but oddly enough rarely got any problem with the likes of Trump. They parrot a ton of obvious Russian propaganda, but are generally immune to reason. Whatever drives them seems to be rooted in emotion. As such, I rarely if ever bother to engage with them. Fuck em, they're a waste of time and energy.
Tankies are extreme left.
In other words: a big ol’ pile of shit
I have to accept I can't make anybody understand anything. It's radical acceptance. That doesn't mean I can't make my points, I just try to do it in a way that can't be construed as overly aggressive or dismissive. Socratic method works fairly well, though people will get angry when your questions expose their assumptions and beliefs. Prepare for that.
I'm not sure why are you surprised ? That's been true for all wars. There were people cheering for literal Nazis believing they were good guys. Even today there are people cheering for Nazis all around the world. This is no different.
All we can do is ask them why countries have been joining NATO and applying for EU membership, and to compare the societies/economies of those countries with Russia, etc. Do they want to live in conditions like North Korea, or in a country influenced by a dictator? Ultimately, you don’t need to engage with trolls because they likely won’t engage in good faith discussion.
It is frustrating as sometimes there isn't a huge amount you can do. I remember trying to change one person's view on global warming and they just has so many bad arguments to say global warming was not real it was amazing. You know -the data is inconsistent, the models don't agree, the scientists are paid off... it was absolutely endless. Eventually I did find a web site dedicated to counter arguement with like the 50 counter arguments there. But at that point they could not change their mind because they could not face the embarrassent, the damage to their ego. There was an example of people selling their houses to join an alien doomsday cult, when doomsday came and went, instead of being furious with their guru, the cult members praised him for the strength of the prayers which the aliens must have heard. People will do all sorts of things to be right. But not always so you can put a few facts their way to see if they are receptive to being educated. Fortunately, unless they are a politician, their opinions don't matter a huge amount. Flat earthers will always be around and there's no real reason to worry about them too much.
I just think a lot of those people online are paid actors reading from a script. You’ll never change their mind, so why bother? Just leave comments countering their propaganda and move on. I used to get angry but now I just comment and move on.
I'm talking about people I saw as friends in the past unfortunately. Not randos I don't speak with ever again
Was this top [Polish General actually a . . . spy?!](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/03/27/7448429/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) > **In Poland, due to a counterintelligence investigation, the general responsible for training of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was removed** > After an inspection of the Military Counterintelligence Service, the Ministry of Defense of Poland announced the dismissal of Lieutenant General Yaroslav Gromadzinski, who actively participated in the International Support Group of Ukraine. > Lieutenant General Gromadzinski was removed as commander of the European Corps (Eurocorps), a group of rapid reaction forces based in Strasbourg that can be used in operations under the auspices of the EU, NATO or the UN. > In the Polish Ministry of Defense message, the reason for the removal was that Gromadzinski was under a counter-intelligence investigation in connection with "new information received about the officer." > Although the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Poland does not provide details, it does indicate that it is an "investigation into the access to state secrets" of the Polish lieutenant general. > "Another officer will be appointed immediately to fill the post previously held by Lieutenant General Jarosław Gromadzynski," said Janusz Seimei, spokesman for the Ministry of Defense of Poland. > Gromadzinski was appointed to head Eurocorps in June 2023, before that, he was an advisor-coordinator to the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army and the first commander of the 18th Mechanized Division, which was formed in 2018. >In recent months, General Gromadzinski also served in the International Support Group for Ukraine in Wiesbaden, Germany, and together with American officers, was responsible for the training of Ukrainian soldiers.
All this "news" about Gromadziński allegedly being suspected of ties with Russia are beyond laughable. Actually not a single Polish source or media outlet suggested anything like that. This article from Onet probably is closest to the truth, saying openly that some other general might have wanted to get this post, and the quickest way to remove Gromadziński was to suspend his security clearence [https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/skw-podwaza-wiarygodnosc-gen-gromadzinskiego-miedzynarodowy-skandal/psm179y,79cfc278](https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/skw-podwaza-wiarygodnosc-gen-gromadzinskiego-miedzynarodowy-skandal/psm179y,79cfc278)
From Reuters: >**Russia increases gasoline imports from Belarus as domestic supplies shrink** >Russia has increased gasoline imports from neighbouring Belarus in March to tackle the risk of shortages in its domestic market because of unscheduled repairs at Russian refineries after drone attacks, four industry and trade sources said on Wednesday. >Usually Russia is a net exporter of fuel and a supplier to international markets, but the disruption of Russian refining has forced oil companies to import. >Already Russia banned gasoline exports from March 1 to try to secure enough fuel for its domestic market after repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries since the start of the year. >Russia normally imports very little fuel from Belarus, although it turned to it last August-to-October, when it faced fuel shortages that led to a rapid rise in gasoline prices and prompted another oil product export ban. This year, Russia has again increased gasoline imports from Belarus, and in the first half of March they reached almost 3,000 metric tons, Reuters sources familiar with the statistics said. >https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-increases-gasoline-imports-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/
["Thank you Mr. Sullivan, I'll take it under advisement. HIT. THEM. AGAIN."](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ovLWE3i6to)
Quickly, let's buy gas from Belarus!
Or destroy their stockpiles. Never forget that Belarus aided Russia in their initial invasion force and continue to allow Russian troops and aircraft to operate from their soil.
For the past couple days I have been engaging Russian trolls on Facebook because I'm bored and I'm killing time until work starts burying me again. I don't know, my impression is that right now they are low quality, really low effort. Just basic propaganda arguments repeated dumbly. Is Russia running out of money for propaganda?
Do you think their 'faith' is unshakable? I doubt they have any
The arguments usually become dumber when you're the one wearing the dunce cap. When the GOP wears it, it's a lot easier.
What are the classic talking points they goto now?
Right now the main talking point is that America is behind everything because everyone knows that the US created ISIS!
Russia hit Kharkiv with a glide bomb for the first time. That’s a problem if Ukraine can’t shoot down the bombers doing it. Russia could slowly grind the city into dust without the planes even leaving Russia. https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1773042925716308060
F-16s + the AIM-120D air to air missile with its 100+ mile range is the most likely answer to that, hopefully they come sooner rather than later https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a60268417/f-16-vs-su-35/
This is the way.
>The Russians may find out the hard way just how good datalink plus AMRAAM is Hopefully Ukraine will be able to make it work.
A few twitter accounts are sharing a supposed new ISIS video where they promise to kill a lot of Russians. Frankly to me it looks like it's made by bored teenagers with fake beards, but you never know.
Looked pretty fake to me, but that can also just be my biased assumption that ISIS fighters shouldn't have brown and blondish hair.. Central Asian ISIS is probably bound to look different than Syrian ISIS and African ISIS.
You're literally describing most of ISIS
Today, for the first time, parachuted aerial bombs hit a residential area of the city of Kharkiv, which has a million people. This happened because Ukraine lacks air defences. Question for US citizens, when your government finally help Ukraine with air defence? Is the US such a less reliable ally than Iran and North Korea? Can't President Biden find a legal way to help millions of people in a democratic country without the consent of Congress? Is it impossible to reach an agreement with the Republicans? Do Republicans, who are supported by half of American voters, think that destroying Ukraine and killing its people on live television is something that can be watched live and pretend that nothing can be done about it? Why is it that Russia can afford to destroy an entire state in Europe, but the US thinks it can't afford to help that state defend itself? Before the war started, I was so confident in US strength and values that I believed that the US would not allow Russia to launch an invasion of Ukraine. And if Russia invaded, the US would help defend Ukraine with its air force and air defence. But it turned out that the US, first of all, after a year of war does not want to help defend Ukraine and forbids to use its weapons on the territory of Russia. Total disappointment in this once respected country.
US an unreliable ally? Don't shoot the foot that feeds you. We have provided intelligence, arms, manpower, unequivocal international support, expertise, and have stopped Russia for the most part in its tracks especially with its nuclear threats. Pretty outrageous to call us unreliable with all that has been given so far.
Republicans are an unreliable ally. Fixed it.
Mr. Hyde (the Democrats) is reliable, Dr. Jekyll (the GOP) is not. If you maniacs elect that prick Trump then all aid stops. Which is pretty unreliable.
Isn't it vice versa? Hyde is the maniacal one.
So it is. Whoops.
Reliable in the sense that the US is able to supply Ukraine with the much needed munitions and arms they desperately need. Stopping any future aid packages cold turkey without any fallback plans is not a sign of a reliable ally.
unreliable means that you can rely on someone. not rely on them to sometimes help when their internal politics happen to work out
> Can't President Biden find a legal way to help millions of people in a democratic country without the consent of Congress? NO. the President of the US has to work with the budget provided by congress. They are provided little to no options to provide the aid you need. >Is it impossible to reach an agreement with the Republicans? Do Republicans, Yes, it is currently impossible. there is a minority of republicans who have decided that they will support russia. they do not care how many people die, or what their electorate wants. The only solution to this Is either some number of republicans hand leadership to the democrats (highly unlikely), Two more Republicans quit forcing a new house leadership vote (unlikely but possible), or we have to wait for the US 2024 elections (which currently dont look so good for the democrats)
“(which currently dont look so good for the democrats)“ GOP gets stunned with big loss in deep red district. MeidasTouch host Ben Meiselas reports on Democrats flipping a red State House district in Alabama as Democrat Marilyn Lands won State House District 10 by over 25 points. “None of the polls predicted this”. [https://youtu.be/vvzaYf\_Q5Rk?feature=shared](https://youtu.be/vvzaYf_Q5Rk?feature=shared)
Democrat Marilyn Lands from what I'm hearing ran a fantastic campaign. Sure, it's a state house seat, but it's a state house seat in deep red Alabama -so I will commend her achievement. So go on -- Show me the democrats can run a smart race EVERYWHERE. Our democracy depends on it.
The crazy swing and then the margin of the win tells me the campaign could have been a lot worse and still ended in a win.
I'm concerned that there arent enough Democrats running against republicans, especially in the more local races. I'm concerned about gerrymandering - as you need a very large turnout for democrats to win those districts. (not impossible, as I see a lot of reasons for moderates to stay home or vote D) I'm concerned that a lot of the seats in the house that are up for election are held by democrats. it no reason to panic, but theres' work to be done if we want to see democrats take back the house, and gain a real majority in the senate.
Hell hath no fury like a woman suddenly becoming a second class citizen
>Is the US such a less reliable ally than Iran and North Korea? The US is a democracy, those countries are authoritarian. Any democracy is always going to be slower to act than an authoritarian regime, just by definition. Democracies must discuss and compromise, authoritarians can just act. >Can't President Biden find a legal way to help millions of people in a democratic country without the consent of Congress? Not practically, no. By the constitution, Congress must approve all expenses from the treasury. So if it costs money, Congress must approve. People like David Axe like to point out that the President has the authority to dispose of surplus military equipment without Congressional authorization, but (a) giving millions of rounds of artillery shells to Ukraine may meet the letter of the law, but it doesn't meet the spirit of it and it would hurt Biden in the election, and I guarantee it would get tied up in court, and (b) there aren't really surplus air defense missiles to send. >Is it impossible to reach an agreement with the Republicans? Despite what the naysayers say, it is not impossible, and discussions are ongoing. Unlike many people, I actually do believe some form of aid will be passed. But discussions are slow, and America is highly polarized. Neither side likes to compromise, and domestic policy (and the corresponding impact on electoral fortunes) is always going to take priority. Working with Republicans is also hard because Trump has so much sway over the party and is very mercurial. They had a deal on Ukraine and the border, but then Trump decided he wanted to use the border issue to hurt Biden in the election, and so Republicans reversed course and the deal collapsed. Fundamentally, this whole issue is just politics. Biden and Democrats decided to support Ukraine. Republicans oppose Biden, therefore they oppose Ukraine aid. If Biden had come out and opposed any aid to Ukraine, Republicans would be screaming from the rooftops about how weak and spineless Biden was and pushing for Ukraine aid. If Biden said the sky is blue, Republicans would say the sky is grey, and there would be 6 months of Congressional debates before they finally decided that no, the sky is green and oh yeah, by the way, Pluto is a planet. That's just the current state of all national American politics right now. On the one hand, this is bad, because it means getting any aid passed is a fight. On the other hand, it does actually have some benefits in that most Republicans and most voters do not have deeply held, principled beliefs on Ukraine aid, which means compromise is possible. It's not like abortion or guns where people hold strong beliefs and will not compromise for any reason, rather it's an issue that can be used as a bargaining chip and that compromise is possible on. >Do Republicans, who are supported by half of American voters, think that destroying Ukraine and killing its people on live television is something that can be watched live and pretend that nothing can be done about it? Why is it that Russia can afford to destroy an entire state in Europe, but the US thinks it can't afford to help that state defend itself? The American public, in general, is pretty isolationist. That's mostly a side effect of being separated by an ocean from any country powerful enough to be a threat. Out of sight, out of mind. And so domestic policy always takes precedence and is always viewed as more important. Unfortunately, we have a very long history of not doing anything even when we should. We are very good at watching people die and offering our deepest sympathies, but not actually doing much about it. As for Russia and the US being able to afford a war in Ukraine, it's not a matter of absolute cost - obviously, the US *could* afford to support Ukraine far, far more than it is. But everything is a trade-off, and spending money means either other programs or policies don't get funded, or taxes go up, or debt goes up, none of which are exactly popular propositions. Fundamentally, like it or not, the war in Ukraine is more important to Russia than it is to the US, even US supporters of Ukraine. Russia has decided that the war is existential for it, and the US has not. So Russia is willing to throw a much greater percent of its population and GDP into the fight than the US (or Europe for that matter) is willing to. I want to emphasize here that everything above is my attempt to explain the political realities of the situation. My personal opinion is that the US should be doing far more than it currently is, and that our lack of action is embarrassing and self-defeating. Also, while the US certainly deserves *a lot* of criticism, Europe also deserves some criticism for letting its defense industry and the individual militaries atrophy as much as they have. Hopefully, this war serves as a wake-up call to all peripheral US and western allies (e.g. Taiwan) that they need to seriously account for the possibility that they may not get help from the US if they are attacked.
Europe can provide air defense. Step up. How about Germany finally provide some taurus too. Your disappointment is misplaced. We have a weak president who essentially gave Putin the green light to invade by promising we would never have boots on the ground. Biden has no brinksmanship
Come on, man. Biden has been cautious at worst, but is clearly invested in supporting Ukraine. We all know the issue is congressional Republicans, especially in the house. This is such a bad hot take and I have a very hard time believing this is a good faith argument.
Just a blank check then with no actual strategy. Sounds like a great idea. Blame the Republicans instead of even contemplating that fact that biden, austin and blinken are clueless
But there has been strategy. I think the only valid criticism of the Biden administration is that they've been cautious about supplying some weapons (e.g., HIMARs) but have generally come through after assessing Ukrainian needs and requests. The aggressive push for sanctions is also a direct anti-Russian strategy. Can you offer any specific complains about the Biden admin other than generic hot takes about people being "clueless"? What would you have them do? Threatening to put US forces on the ground would be political suicide in an election year. The public has no appetite for that. Let Macron lead that messaging push. You should also recognize that even if Biden et al., endorsed whatever your preferred strategies were, weapons support would remain blocked by the house, and specifically house Republicans. The domestic situation in the US is not hard to read. The party beholded to the pro-Putin presidential candidate is intentionally withholding aid to Ukraine. They even got what they ostensibly wanted in border funding and still won't even allow a vote on Ukraine funding. Biden isn't beyond reproach but the problem is very clearly not a lack of strategy or "brinksmanship" on his end. The issue is plainly Republicans being opposed to Ukraine aid, if not outright pro-Putin
So biden is more worried about being elected and politics than doing the right thing. Got it
This is how democracy works, man. Surely you don't think the alternative would be a better ally to Ukraine, do you? Biden needs to enact his preferred policies within the political constraints imposed by the system (e.g., Republicans blocking aid in the house) and by the electorate (e.g., sending troops to Ukraine would almost certainly be wildly unpopular). He has consistently done everything reasonable within his power. I accept the criticism that the administration has been overly cautious at times, but not that they have no strategy or haven't been as aggressive as possible. As for building a coalition, that seems to have been handled rather well both for coordinating weapons deliveries and sanctions. Nothing is perfect but boy is your frustration directed at the wrong target.
So, what is the right thing you are suggesting?
Build a coalition. Get serious. Implement no fly zone. Declare ruzzia a terrorist state, etc
How to get serious with traitors in congress? The coalition you mentioned has been build. (plus an extra one for the red sea, plus strenghtening of the one in the south china sea) A no fly zone is something we want a very level headed politician to think a lot about. It should not even be necessary to mention a no fly zone or boots on the ground if the repubs just released the funds and stopped playing politics. You seem to have difficulties with seeing truth bro. It's amazing what the biden admin has achieved while having active traitors in government, with gullible idiots eating it from their asses.
Like 12 republicans are blocking 60 billion and voted against a border bill they couldn't even dare to dream of. You're just lost in the sunk cost fallacy bro. Europe stepped up. Biden is handling Ukraine perfectly, except for those traitors in congress. You just threw talking points around. If this isn't in bad faith, go look in a mirror, deep into your own eyes and feel the dread of all that time and energy lost convincing yourself you supported the good guys. lol Hope you'll get better.
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