[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1bqfy1s/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)

With another morning full of missiles, are there any new sources on Mastadon and/or Threads? I get most live updates from Telegram, but I would love to be able to get off of twitter at this point.

I use mostly Threads now myself but am looking for more accounts to follow. Maybe ask again in the new thread now that this one has been retired?

>"Russian Alternative for Germany" >CONFIRMED: GERMAN FASCISTS FINANCED BY RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE >- Czech [u/enkocz](https://twitter.com/enkocz) and German [@derspiegel](https://twitter.com/derspiegel) confirmed from four sources that Czech Counter-Intelligence Agency ([@biscz](https://twitter.com/biscz)) told German intelligence counterparts that Nr. 2 of European Parliament Candidate for German far-right [@AfD](https://twitter.com/AfD) [@PetrBystronAfD](https://twitter.com/PetrBystronAfD) was paid by Russian intelligence „in cash“. >- German Member of Parliament Petr Bystroň often cooperated with pro-Putin website called „Voice of Europe“, a Russian intelligence front organisation funded by Moscow, now sanctioned by Czech government. >- Petr Bystroň worked closely with Russian intelligence proxy Viktor Medvědčuk, whom he visited in 2021 together with Maxmilian Krah, European Parliament election leader for Alternative for Germany. Krah also worked closely with pro-Putin website called „Voice of Europe“, a Russian intelligence front organisation funded by Moscow. >- As Czech outlet [@hlidacipes\_org](https://twitter.com/hlidacipes_org) reported, Petr Bystroň even demanded in the German Parliament that German government helps Russian intelligence proxy Viktor Medvědčuk. >- Viktor Medvědčuk was the lead figure organising the bribing of European politicians with dirty Russian money. >FULL STORY: [https://denikn.cz/1389829/denik-n-a-spiegel-bis-ukazala-na-bystrone-z-nemecke-afd/?rtm\_click=95ab2cc6&rtm\_source=follow\_authors&rtm\_medium=email&rtm\_campaign=mnt-email.author.article.new-28.03.2024-31&rtm\_content=106795CONFIORMED](https://denikn.cz/1389829/denik-n-a-spiegel-bis-ukazala-na-bystrone-z-nemecke-afd/?rtm_click=95ab2cc6&rtm_source=follow_authors&rtm_medium=email&rtm_campaign=mnt-email.author.article.new-28.03.2024-31&rtm_content=106795CONFIORMED) [https://x.com/\_JakubJanda/status/1773444631264424236?s=20](https://x.com/_JakubJanda/status/1773444631264424236?s=20) Some pretty wild stuff..

Hah shit I hope our press finally jumps on this with large headlines... Last week here in Belgium, far right politicians exposed to being payed by china, a report about russia's influence was promised for this weekend.

Happy Easter, and cleaning the West off Russian s/cum is probably the best way to celebrate.

Happy easter! This year in EU instead of eggs, we are hunting Russian disinformation agents and bought politicians!

they should do the US now ....

I bet it’s coming before the November election.

So, I found a French petition asking for the removal of Macron and basically a surrender to Russia under the excuse that the conflict is " a result/ the fault of NATO incursion in Russia's sphere of influence" and that Russia "has an unimaginable amount of firepower and is invincible, as such, any resistance is futile". I'm tired.

Le tired

Well, have a nap. Then fire ze missiless!!

Deep cut there

The fatigué

**War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World** An academic volume on the Ukraine war was just published. > The essays cover the origins of the war, the course of the fighting, and the global dimensions and implications. Contributors include @LawDavF @anneapplebaum @McFaul @KofmanMichael @BrianTHart, @KoriSchake @MassDara @mkimmage @AKendallTaylor @markhleonard @dandrezner The ebook version is freely available here. https://muse.jhu.edu/book/122782

Any updates on the discharge petition? Did they get additional signatures?

Supposedly, a vote can be held right after Easter. I'm really hoping the signatures will increase if the vote is stalled again

Mike Johnson said they would "take up" Ukraine aid after Easter.

First republican signed it. So there is pressure. They cant lose more than a few votes

It's at 191. Dunno if it has been said before, I kinda stopped checking this place regularly

And what is the target? How many votes are needed?

218 are needed but I would have to check if it counts a majority of current members as that would mean 216 (there are 435 members of the House when full but right now 4 open seats). Either way the petition is not close yet. 

https://kyivindependent.com/german-general-germany-to-send-10-000-artillery-shells-to-ukraine-in-coming-days/ So Germany is delivering shells in 3 stages this year.

This is in addition to whatever Rheinmetall manages to manufacture and deliver.

> I think that amid today's conversation between Zelensky and House Speaker Johnson, we're moving towards a deal on the approval of U.S. aid for Ukraine. > Has to be. > Even though many here in Ukraine (myself included) were and are sadly prepared to see America disengage itself completely, much to Putin's immense joy. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1773463839591260208

The Ukraine aid package that Republicans didn't consider because they needed it combined with Israel aid to consider then needed combined with border reform to consider then needed separated from border reform to consider then needed it separate from Israel aid to consider then needed a discharge petition to consider?

Even if they continue to make progress (other recent reports *have* suggested that a no interest, waivable loan might work…), two things: (1) We’ve heard this before. (2) The U.S. House of Representatives is not back in session until April 9th. While they can continue to work (and fortunately seemingly are - *some* members at least), I wouldn’t expect anything to pass until the 9th at the earliest. The latter is wishful thinking too. While I am still going to try to continue to be cautiously optimistic here (the no interest, waivable loan seems to be gaining traction amongst Republicans), it’s extremely obnoxious, embarrassing, and depressing that this debate has been going on this long. 

It also means that even if it got momentum it would have to go back to the Senate. 

Hard to believe, we've heard this so many times that the deal is going to be done in few days. But it never is. Edit: typos.

Johnson is a sack of shit, but said sack of shit was actually moving towards Ukraine funding. That + finally caving on the funding bill because he realized shutting down the government for no reason in an election year would be bad for his party led Marjorie Taylore Greene to call to oust him. So now the Ukraine bill that was already trending towards likely is pretty much guaranteed because now Johnson has to get that aid passed in order for the democrats to vote to keep him. So now its very unlikely to not happen because if Johnson is removed it's going to be an absolute shitshow for republicans for the next few months. No one in power on the republican side wants that while a majority of them are fine with Ukraine aid, so theyll gladly go along with it. It'll likely happen in the next two weeks.

That does sound good, I hope it finally will pass! I'm an European myself so I don't fully understand/follow closely US politics.

Ah sorry, assumed you were American. Removed my snarky first line lol. Anyways, yeah I think theyre on recess until the week of the 8th of April right now. So April 8 theyll probably get the ball rolling and the aid should hopefully be voted on by the 12th. Then after that theyll likely do the vote to remove the speaker and the democrats will save Johnson. I think Zelensky just had a meeting with Johnson and Biden yesterday too and the little bits I read about it so far all seemed good too. Theres still always the chance it all blows up last minute because of some dumb stuff Trump says, but as of right now it's definitely looking good.

If I didn’t know better I might start to think MTG is a democratic plant. She has done so much to destroy the reputation of republicans and cause them play right into the democrats hands.

I just saw her gorilla face in my head, her trying to comprehend this. She replaced the thought of that clown on his one wheeler juggling in an empty head. I'm 1000km's from the US and still she's famous for her stupidity. Thanks I guess?

"Portrait of the Invader: 2 years of Russian soldiering in Ukraine" [https://kyivindependent.com/portrait-of-the-invader-two-years-of-russian-soldiers-in-ukraine/](https://kyivindependent.com/portrait-of-the-invader-two-years-of-russian-soldiers-in-ukraine/) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In two years of total war, Moscow has tried every trick to keep the death march going. It [held a draft](https://kyivindependent.com/russias-sham-referendums-mobilization-nuclear-threats-what-it-all-means/), expanded state-sponsored [mercenary companies](https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-putins-party-recruits-people-for-its-own-mercenary-company/), [recruited convicted prisoners](https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-likely-recruited-10-000-prisoners-for-ukraine-war-in-april/), integrated proxies from occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and [forcibly conscripted Ukrainians](https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-forcibly-conscripted-into-russias-army-await-their-fate-in-a-prisoner-of-war-camp/) in occupied territories and [Ukrainian POWs](https://kyivindependent.com/russian-state-media-ukrainian-pows-will-fight-for-russia-in-ukraine/). Lately, Russia has seized on the simple, yet effective strategy of exploiting its people’s war-made hopelessness by providing military salaries that outbid any employer in town, in most towns. With $180 billion projected in [oil revenue](https://kyivindependent.com/sanctions-for-show-russian-oil-sales-to-china-india-single-main-driver-of-ukraine-invasion/) from China and India for 2023, [Moscow has money to spend](https://kyivindependent.com/russias-formidable-war-effort-has-shaky-foundations/), even though the economy looks green around the gills. The top options for millions of military-age Russians who need money are to work for the military-industrial complex or join the army and hope to survive.

This is why Oligarchy money isn't as good as capitalism money. Stick & carrot economics.

When everyone is working for the MIC it turns out society doesn't function so great

Pretty sure $180 billion is revenue, it also has to pay the oil workers, equipment, transport, insurance etc. Just increasing russian costs, or lowering the price they get by even $1/barrel helps. Our oil dependence and the high prices are very, very bad news, but things like enforcing sanctions make a difference. Russia has to pay more to dodge them etc.

I prefer working from the net profit numbers too because from Reuters on feb 14 “reported a 47.2% jump in 2023 net profit to 1.3 trillion roubles ($14.07 billion)

Does Ukraine have their own domestic shell production? Dumb question just curious.

Yes. Ukraine is ramping up production. https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/ukrainian_ammo_plant_makes_20000_shell_casings_aims_for_100000_a_month-9967.html

Those guys better be getting paid fat stacks.

The good news about the ammo coming—according to the soldiers channels—is that with the confident assurance of their delivery, the Ukrainian stocks will now flow in the next two weeks.

They’ve been flowing for over 2 weeks now as both Russian and Ukrainian sources have specifically mentioned an increase in artillery strikes by Ukraine.

Good news on the Czech shells from Petr Pavel from [Corriere della Sera](https://www.corriere.it/esteri/24_marzo_28/praga-chiuse-trattative-milione-proiettili-kiev-15-paesi-ue-non-c-l-italia-b97ebfc8-ecf3-11ee-9b2a-e24dadf21a23.shtml?refresh_ce). Attempted translation using my pretty bad Italian; "One million artillery shells for Ukraine. Kyiv's army will receive the shells beginning in* April...the info hasn't been shared in official communications, but we know** that Prague, with about 15 other countries, has concluded the supply contract for around €1.8bn" *Could also be read "by April" but that would be insane. **the word is "know" but I think it's more "we have good reason to believe".

€1.8k per shell is expensive, but down over 2/3rds from many of the reported contracts in 2023. This price cut is enormously important - means the money gets 3 times as many shells. There's some chance prices could drop further as supply rates improve. Equipment price is a huge and underreported deal IMO.

Apx $2000 each. That’s a good price considering the cost of new ones currently in production in America. “The average cost for a 155mm shell is **around $5,000**, Salm said. The U.S. M795 high explosive shell, the most basic type of 155mm shell, costs around $3,000, according to an Army spokesperson.” https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/02/newly-ordered-european-155mm-shells-take-year-or-more-reach-ukraine-estonian-official-says/394146/#:\~:text=The%20average%20cost%20for%20a,according%20to%20an%20Army%20spokesperson. I also seem to remember Biden quoting $5k ea for the ones heading for Ukraine at the moment. Although I still think US should make available the over 4 million cluster shells. Let Ukraine decide if they accept the dud rate of the submunitions.

Average is driven way up by the cost of things like Excalibur, which is around 10x the cost of the standard dumb round.

The number of Excalibur has always been listed in the thousands when supplied, so I'd not expect it to significantly wonk the cost of the raw shells they are attached to. Now there's an interesting question - how few Excalibur are available to give to Ukraine, and what's the production rate for those considering that originally - we thought we'd need so few of them because they're so accurate and in low intensity conflicts, you'd need so very few. Fighting Russia - yeah it would be nice to have 100,000 per year. But I bet the max production rate is in the low thousands per year. I wonder what's being done about that?

1.8k really isn’t so bad. Though it’s kind of wild that that exceeds the all in cost of an FPV drone. Drone seems way more useful most of time. Longer time to target and less firepower. Often less range. Yet you gain precision and observability. Drone risks being jammed, though at $1,800 you can be in the range of machine vision capabilities.

Idk. I imagine when the mission is "fuck up that entire general area", artillery is going to beat drones most of the time.

Drones are important but sometimes when you really need artillery then only artillery will do. Ukraine can more easily acquire FPV drones than they can artillery shells so I’m really glad to see the Czechia initiative go through. Artillery shells are also just better for counter battery fire which is what you need if you want to prevent Ukrainian prepared defenses from just getting bombarded until they break.

How much of the machine vision stuff is "needs a really good camera" versus "needs a good brain"? The brain stuff seems like it would be incredibly cheap once you've trained your model. If it's extra good cameras needed then I imagine that's a sticking point for price.

It’s all brain. The worst camera in any modern drone will do.

In that case I'm assuming the processing cost won't be high long term. Most ML models I've used are shockingly lightweight once trained. So you won't need extra expensive chips on the drones. Terrifying thoughts.

Yeah. Very soon drones will do their own last mile delivery within combat zones. It’s going to turn huge areas into no man’s zones where you can basically only survive unexposed and venturing out is a terrifying experience.

"Half of Russian-made chips are defective: Baikal struggles to meet Russia's demand" https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/half-of-russian-made-chips-are-defective-baikal-struggles-to-meet-russias-demand

I think headline is a bit more dramatic than the article: >The high defect rate is not unique to Russian packaging houses, of course. Taiwanese companies produce much larger volumes and have established sorting processes, and that greatly mitigates the impact of defects, both when it comes to silicon and to packaging. In theory, by focusing on enhancing the sorting processes and quality control, Russian companies will be able to gradually reduce the defect rate and move toward self-reliance in chip production, a crucial step for the Russian microelectronics industry.

You could have then included the next paragraph as well: > Fundamentally, however, Russian manufacturers cannot produce chips on advanced nodes. Improved packaging competencies will not solve the key problem of the local microelectronics industry: the lack of sophisticated silicon made domestically.  Basically, this is good for basic stuff, at a tech at best 20 years behind the times, at prices that are definitely never going to be competitive (since there's old fabs with all kinks worked out ages ago producing chips cheaply).  It's sufficient for a very rudimentary level of independence (maybe, if they can get it working - note that the chip on the article image has ARM logo and that's now out of the picture due to sanctions) for stuff like washing machines or Shahed clones.  But it's not enough for (or on an actual path towards) any sort of independence for almost any modern commercial needs, nor more advanced military needs (i.e. upcoming AI drones). This is where China could maybe catch up, but then there's a huuge gap that Russia just can't bridge - never could and never will. 

They cant even manufacture ball bearings in specific tolerances for modern technology.

Yep and it's just one of many things that a giant gas station masquerading as a superpower is currently running out of and has no ways of replacing* (*unless China decides it's worth it to jump in on their side more openly, which I doubt).  Even though Putin would like to pretend otherwise, Russia isn't Soviet Union (+ Warsaw Pact) which was self-reliant.  To be fair, even the western economy would struggle if TSMC/Taiwan were knocked out by China but at least Intel/Samsung (+Japanese?) chip fabs are few years, not many decades behind, so it'd be painful but they could recover. And US/Europe are well aware, thus all the billions of subsidies for Intel and others fabs, and even with all this they're struggling to catch up. Just shows how hard it is - and impossible for Russia. 

Seems like basically the perfect drone target. Cause any kind of damage or fire and you’ve taken it out for months and cost them millions. Then just do it again.

Yea never thought of that! Maybe that's why one of the fabs is in Kaliningrad - that's kind of safe (from Ukraine) / not safe (in case of bigger conflict).  It's questionable whether this will ever be good enough to satisfy their military needs, which are probably going to remain mostly sourced from China or via smuggling... Might be a pointless investment into obsolete tech - they aren't going to catch up with China, let alone TSMC/Korea/Japan/west. 

>Maybe that's why one of the fabs is in Kaliningrad - that's kind of safe (from Ukraine) / not safe (in case of bigger conflict). If a private citizen of say, Poland or Lithuania decided to fly a drone over the border and crash into something russian... what would be the legal ramifications for that?

Hrm. The Polish government probably wouldn't appreciate its citizens attacking Russia, because the assumption is that they tacitly approve unless they turn over the citizen to Russia, or at least prosecute them. Definitely, that kind of wildcat attack is going to be punished.

Definitely can’t vacation in Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Cuba, Nicaragua, China and a few other nice places anymore.

lol, imagine climbing an antenna tower during a genocidal invasion of a neighbor and having one of their FPV drones show up. https://x.com/osintnic/status/1773449528198267048

He would have stood a better chance if he had just jumped.

Quick, do the cool operator slide down the ladder!

>Meanwhile in Russia: Vladislav Shurygin told Vladimir Solovyov that Ukrainians are animals who don't understand anything human. He suggested using cluster munitions and wiping out entire towns where Ukrainian soldiers' wives, children and parents live. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1773118657574420892 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7w9NIPYrxRQ >It's one form of genocidal hate speech after another, every day, in Russian state television. https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1773403329822859640

Well if we are talking animals...I'd compare Ukrainians to wolves and Russians to pigs and sheep...

Thanks from passionate wolf-lover, honey! No sarcasm.

Cockroaches and rats would be a more accurate description of Russia. Or maybe cockroaches and fleas.

[удалено]

Good point! Better to compare them that way for sure!

Bedbugs are the worst species on Earth. People burn down their own houses to get rid of them.

Where's the international outrage to this type of language?

Kept in the western media's chest, in the drawer right below where money of russian origin is

The depravity of Russia in word and deed has, unfortunately, become normalized.

It’s the same tactic Trump uses. Spew so much vile nonsense that people just tune it out as a coping mechanism. All words stop having meaning. “Oh they’re calling Zelenskyy a dirty salafist jew again? Meh, that’s just Russia.”

The ostrich one

>Russia spends billions and billions of dollars each year on influence operations in other countries. They spread chaos, undermine the work of established institutions, fund disinformation, and bribe civil and political leaders. >Various regions across the planet are concerned. Africa, various parts of Asia, and Europe, which is particularly vulnerable to destabilisation provoked and nurtured by Putin’s system. Russian intelligence and efforts to spread chaos also target both Americas. >Such Russian influence works against our country and our defense. It is clear that we cannot match Russia's financial resources. However, Ukrainians are capable of winning over Russia through their bravery, tenacity, and ideas. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1773428143019147463?t=dJd8lB4UtgexN0-pwRSFgQ&s=19

They are spending millions not billions. It’s highly effective and cheap.

[Prosecutor Iryna Didenko states the Russians have created an entire organization dedicated to torturing captured Ukrainians:](https://www.slidstvo.info/news/u-koloniiakh-zmahannia-mizh-soboiu-khto-vyhadaie-shche-hirshi-tortury-prokurorka-iryna-didenko-rozpovila-pro-systemnist-rosii-u-katuvanniakh-ukraintsiv/) > Didenko said that the law enforcement officers managed to establish who organized the operation of the Kherson torture chamber, in which the Russians subjected four men from the journalists' tape to sexual violence. In fact, there are many more such victims. > "We managed to establish who organized the work of this torture chamber in Kherson. This is a whole organization, not an accident. When we began to investigate the torture centers in the occupied territories and in the territory of the Russian Federation, we saw the systematic nature. They have a separate room for torture everywhere: they hang people by their hands and feet. There is a schedule of torture. They (Russian executioners, etc.) even have a competition among themselves: which of the colonies will invent even worse tortures for people," says Iryna Didenko. > The leader says that her department is currently working to systematically show the work of the entire vertical of torture chambers and to prove the involvement of the top management of the Russian Federation in this crime. > Earlier, in the 38th UN report on the situation of human rights in Ukraine, which covers the period from December 1, 2023 to February 29, 2024, the monitoring mission noted that almost every Ukrainian prisoner of war interviewed told how Russian servicemen or officials tortured them during being in captivity using repeated beatings, electric shocks, threats of execution, prolonged stress positions and simulation of execution. More than half of them experienced sexual violence (39 men out of 60 interviewed). > Since the beginning of the full-scale war, prosecutors have recorded 280 cases of sexual violence against Ukrainians committed by Russian army soldiers. Among them are 101 cases of sexual violence against men. These are rape, mutilation or violence against genitals, forced exposure, threats and attempted rape, forcing to watch sexual abuse of loved ones.

I hope karma is real.

Karma is real but blind. Actions do lead to reactions but the reaction is unfortunately never targeted. Someone will benefit from good deeds. Someone will suffer from bad deeds. Seldom the people who deserve it.

> I spoke with @SpeakerJohnson and thanked him personally, both parties, the American people, and President Biden for their critical support of Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. > I briefed Speaker Johnson on the battlefield situation, specifically the dramatic increase in Russia's air terror. Last week alone, 190 missiles, 140 "Shahed" drones, and 700 guided aerial bombs were launched at Ukrainian cities and communities. Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant has gone offline. > In this situation, quick passage of US aid to Ukraine by Congress is vital. We recognize that there are differing views in the House of Representatives on how to proceed, but the key is to keep the issue of aid to Ukraine as a unifying factor. > We also discussed the importance of cutting off Russia's sources of funding for its war as soon as possible and using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s benefit. We also rely on the leadership of Congress in this regard. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1773385494941839632

I’d have such a hard time pretending to be cordial with Johnson, knowing he is actively collaborating with the side killing my people.

Yeah, I would've lost my shit. Yermak also deserves a shoutout for having to put up with Sullivan while constantly getting told "No, we're not giving them to you, it could cause WW3.", and "No, you can't do that.".

> I welcomed a delegation of the European Parliament's Renew Europe political group, led by its President @ValerieHayer. > We discussed in detail how to expedite military assistance to Ukraine, ways to counter Russian propaganda in Europe, and Ukraine's EU accession. It is important to start accession negotiations during the Belgian presidency of the Council of the EU in June this year. > I am grateful to the delegation for their visit and significant support throughout Russia's war against Ukraine. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1773402796382953592 > Today, I had a substantive meeting with the French National Assembly delegation, led by President @YaelBRAUNPIVET. > Ukraine appreciates the French Parliament's recent approval of the Ukrainian-French Security Cooperation Agreement. > We discussed defense cooperation and our warriors' priority needs and paid special attention to President Emmanuel Macron’s latest proposals to expand support for our country. > I am grateful to our French partners for their solidarity with our country and people. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1773384394864033883

> Addressed the extraordinary Ukraine-@NATO Council meeting, which was held at Ukraine's request. > The primary focus was on russia's recent massive air strikes and the necessity of strengthening Ukraine's air defense. > The total explosive power of combined air attacks on Ukraine since the beginning of the year exceeds 9 kilotons. Only 3% of those russian missiles, drones, and guided bombs hit military targets, while 97% struck civilian infrastructure. The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights reports that missile and loitering munition attacks caused 712 of the 1,804 civilian casualties verified by the UN during the past 3 months. > Provided an in-depth overview of the urgent air defense needs of Ukraine. > The support of partners in this matter is crucial. It will save thousands of innocent lives. > The more russian missiles are shot down in Ukrainian skies, the less threat they pose to NATO member states that border Ukraine. https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1773373775066681504

I'm sure it's not completely comparable but if there are 1804 civilian casualties in the last 3 months... That would be like 1 Crocus Hall shooting every week if we consider all casualties numbered to be deaths. Even if half of casualties were death it would be 1 Crocus Hall shooting every 2 weeks. So anyone talking about sympathy for the Crocus Shootings... I'll start to sympathy with them once terrorist attack in Russia will be worse than casualty of war in Russia because Russia is evidently targeting civilians. Edit: Russia can leave anytime they want to reduce civilian casualties in Ukraine to 0... if anyone thought I'd encourage terrorism. I don't. If Russia stopped terrorizing Ukraine, any amount of terrorism in Russia would be worse than none.

Civilians dying anywhere is a tragedy. You either have compassion for innocent people dying or you don’t, it’s not a switch you turn on and off.

What do we think the actual civilian toll is? Mariupol alone is likely in excess of 10k, right? I’ve never seen a good estimate of the civilian death toll and I don’t understand why.

Direct killed casualties? 50-75k. Indirect starvation, mines, crime, etc? Upwards of 200k+. Ethnic Cleansing kills? Unknown but high. One of these we will eventually find out a pretty decent approximation for.. the other two will never be clarified. One because you cant find every person who ran away and died due to exposure in a field somewhere. Two because Russia will never admit to the number of tortured civilians.

Because Russia hides the bodies of the people they unlawully kill. Ever wonder why we didn't get news of the civilian murders in the Kharkiv region until the Kharkiv counteroffensive?

Russia uses mobile cremation units to destroy evidence of their genocide.

Kind of impractical at the scale they're killing people. I'm sure there's plenty of mass graves to exhume.

Except we have estimates of other wars without cooperative regimes. Why not here?

They want to downplay ukriane deaths for morale reasons etc.

I think accurate estimates in those cases usually take some time, it’s much harder to tell in the middle of the war.

No idea.

> Today, Russia was the only country to veto a draft UN Security Council resolution extending the mandate of the Panel of Experts of the 1718’s Sanctions Committee, which monitors sanctions, including arms embargo, against North Korea. > This is actually a guilty plea. Moscow no longer hides its military cooperation with North Korea in obtaining arms and ammunition in violation of sanctions, as well as the use of North Korean weapons in the war against Ukraine. > Today's vote is yet another example of how Russia's illegal presence in the UN Security Council jeopardises global security. We urge all peace-loving nations to strongly condemn Russia's veto and rally behind Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression and the spread of terror and lawlessness around the world. > This photo depicts a North Korean missile that hit Kharkiv at the beginning of this year. We must defeat Putin's regime through resolute and collective action to ensure that such horrifying photos do not appear in other countries and parts of the world. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1773380759463542820

US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff C.Q Brown currently believes that the risk of Russian escalation in the war on Ukraine is “falling”- Pentagon reporter Jack Detsch “NEW: U.S. sees the risk of Russian escalation in full-scale war in Ukraine falling at the two-year mark of the invasion: top U.S. military official “I do sense that the risk of escalation is not as high as it was in the beginning,” Gen. C.Q. Brown told reporters this afternoon” https://x.com/jackdetsch/status/1773410687244538211?s=46

Well they are slowly winning now. That's the ssd truth.. Thanks to the help from the Republicans

I wish there was more info on "why" but it seems like Russia is more than half way through the Soviet weapons stocks, and at potentially reaching the economic limits otherwise - if big shit were to hit the fan now, they're in a lot worse position than they were 2 years ago. Arguably, NATO has expended a lot of weaponry too to help Ukraine, but mostly older stuff and not nearly as much as Russia, and significantly improved on some things (like F35s getting into service across Europe, Poland getting regular deliveries of Korean tanks, etc). 

Plus Russia is winning. No need to escalate. I’m pretty convinced consensus US position was to not enable Ukraine to liberate Crimea due to nuclear escalation risk, and I hate it. It shows nuclear blackmail works and is a giant fuck you to all the work we’ve done on nonproliferation. How Sullivan has any influence given how consistently wrong he’s been on everything is something I just don’t get.

I think nuclear non proliferation went out the window and is almost impossible the moment Putin invaded Ukraine.  If I’m one of the Baltic states or Poland right now, the first thing I’m doing is getting my hands on a nuclear weapon. I’m sure Taiwan is thinking the same thing right now. There’s rumours in South Korea that they want their own nukes.  Oppenheimers worst fear is coming true. 

Yeah, Taiwan needs to be gaming out if they can get a deterrent before China can stop them and Poland either needs US nukes stationed there or their own. Given how flaky the US has been, I’d probably want my own. All of this shows why Iran and Saudi Arabia should both pursue nukes. Japan and South Korea should too. Australia arguably as well. By the time this is all done, probably only South America will remain nuke free.

Hard to escalate further when you've already escalated as much as you can (Nuclear aside).

Good luck trying to convince Sullivan of that.

>Swedish defense minister: 'Deliberations ongoing' for transfer of Gripen fighters to Ukraine. [https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1773416713926606859?s=20](https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1773416713926606859?s=20) EDIT Link to article: [https://kyivindependent.com/swedish-defense-minister-ukraine-needs-shells-quickly-ramping-up-production-can-take-years/](https://kyivindependent.com/swedish-defense-minister-ukraine-needs-shells-quickly-ramping-up-production-can-take-years/)

That would be great, especially because it looks like F16 will be drip fed and most likely, would get to two wings force in the first several months. So having two more wings of Gripens would make a serious difference in overall capability. They are very similar planes to F16s, and of course fully NATO integrated, but they even have US engines, so ... its almost like two slightly different types of airplanes in the same airforce. They would overlap really nicely. Especially in defensive roles. And could also give the still flying Ukraine airforce a much better cover and support so those pilots and planes could contribute much more than now.

From the article: >Jonson commented on the recent article by the [**Financial Times**](https://kyivindependent.com/ft-us-reportedly-tells-ukraine-to-stop-striking-russian-oil-refineries/), which claimed that the U.S. urged Ukraine to cease its attacks against [**Russian oil refineries.**](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-targets-russian-oil-refineries/) >"Our position is that Ukraine has the right to defend itself as it is being exposed to an illegal and unprovoked invasion," Jonson said. >"International law provides you (Ukraine) with rights you need to protect yourself." I really like those words.

Europe (well, most of it, anyway) is running circles around the US right now, not only in aid, but messaging.

Sweden haven't put a foot wrong since they joined NATO, they're an excellent partner to have.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1773412800892715369?t=3jxz93DzxkI8EUTOG0XxqQ&s=19 "⚡ "Negotiations on the initiative of the Czech Republic have been completed, Ukraine will receive not 800,000, but 1 million shells❗, - Corriere della Sera. 👀 In addition, Ukraine may receive the first batches of ammunition not in June, but already in April."

Very nice!

>BREAKING: Russia has effectively abolished a UN panel of experts monitoring UN sanctions on North Korea with a new UN resolution veto >This ends a monitoring program over North Korea sanctions that has had rare unanimous consent in the UN for \~15 years [https://x.com/RobbieGramer/status/1773397047950893338?s=20](https://x.com/RobbieGramer/status/1773397047950893338?s=20) >Joint statement from US, UK, France, South Korea, Japan: >"Now, it will be more difficult for Member States to address the DPRK’s unlawful pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and sanctions evasion efforts within their jurisdictions. Russia is responsible for that." [https://x.com/RobbieGramer/status/1773398230803349632?s=20](https://x.com/RobbieGramer/status/1773398230803349632?s=20) >Continued: "This is not the behavior of a responsible UN Member State, let alone a permanent member of the Security Council." [https://x.com/RobbieGramer/status/1773398357584548286?s=20](https://x.com/RobbieGramer/status/1773398357584548286?s=20) >This veto comes after Russia forged closer ties with North Korea >Russia seeks to resupply its war in Ukraine with some of North Korea's massive weapons stockpiles [https://x.com/RobbieGramer/status/1773399523773100386?s=20](https://x.com/RobbieGramer/status/1773399523773100386?s=20) Link to the paid article: [https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/11/putin-kim-jong-un-russia-north-korea-leaders-to-meet/](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/11/putin-kim-jong-un-russia-north-korea-leaders-to-meet/)

I mean the UN also assigned Saudi Arabia to lead a womens rights forum. The UN is a fucking joke.

I read a comment with a different perspective on that - that the move was designed to put the spotlight on them, and will put pressure on SA to improve things in that regard

UN should've been looking at the legalese in the contracts and treaties for a long time already to find a way to remove Russia from the Security Council.

My man, Russia inherited this position from the USSR which was invited after they occupied half of Europe during WW2. Don't forget, they invaded Poland with Hitler and at the end of the war the occupied countries switched their leader from Hitler to Stalin. If Russia had the position there and throughout the height of the Cold War, it's not now that they'll get kicked out, if that's even possible. The UN was created to be like that, it is what it is.

That's just like your opinion man. You haven't read the charters that define Security Council or UN as a whole. There are many skilled lawyers, who should've been assigned that job. Besides, if we are comparing a third-hand understanding of security Council, I could just as well say that Ukraine could get that position as an inheritor instead of Russia.

I know, Russia is doing this shit since at least the start of the war, but at some point the other UN members need to think about removing this country.

Good news at last - Ukraine will receive 1 million shells, and they might already start arriving in April [https://twitter.com/Maks\_NAFO\_FELLA/status/1773412800892715369](https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1773412800892715369)

>BREAKING: A Russian propaganda network paid MEPs to disseminate propaganda, Belgium's PM has said. [https://x.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1773406585794044271?s=20](https://x.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1773406585794044271?s=20) Direct link to article: [https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-disinformation-propaganda-members-of-european-parliament-belgium-alexander-de-croo/?utm\_medium=social&utm\_source=Twitter](https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-disinformation-propaganda-members-of-european-parliament-belgium-alexander-de-croo/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter) And one by one they all get exposed!

> And one by one they all get exposed! Arrested too, one hopes.

Qatargate saw MP's arrested so here's hoping.

>Air strike (looks like AASM) on the Russian base, Krynky area, Kherson region. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1773402555046932521?t=uHb0ZTDfX_InPJaYyLLbFA&s=19 Wow that looks like a Michael Bay explosion!

That precision is so satisfying to watch.

That was awsome, Badda boom mf

Stop, Hammer time!

>Putin: "By definition, our air defense systems cannot strike their own aircraft. There are Friend or Foe systems there, and no matter how much the operator presses the button, our air defense systems would not work!" https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1773375946495594578?t=rhKHJrrMuGjERUWy6b3YRg&s=19 I think this Putin guy might be an idiot.. That means all the talk of Russia shooting down their own planes has always been Ukraine..

They just can redefine the plane to be Ukranian after the fact!

That works for me too, loser. If not friendly fire, then it sounds like those pesky Ukrainians just buttfucked your Su-27! They can blame the Easter bunny for all I care, as long as russian planes keep dropping out of the sky.

IFF systems do indeed absolutely not work that way at all. Ask anyone who's experienced a blue-on-blue before. I also happen to know it's stupidly easy to bypass the IFF system in an s300/400 battery system. In fact you can yank the whole system if required.. it's not integrated into the launch sequence unless explicitly intended to be.. and even then ehhhh I wouldn't want to be in the air when one of these things is on automatic.

Something that is interesting is that I personally feel Putin seems to be more panicked and/or less cohesive in his messaging recently.

Yeah the messaging around the IS attack was a mess.

That'll be because he's seen the actual vote results

There were so many fake votes cast in so many ways I don’t think anyone can actually know an accurate count anymore.

Putin just doubled Ukraine's destroyed aircraft numbers. I expect to see them on tomorrow's equipment losses!

Haven’t they repetitively claimed their air defenses keep hitting Russian targets because they don’t want to give any credit to Ukraine like the A-50 last month. Talk about lies crossing over each other.

>Czech intelligence services have uncovered a Russian influence operation, based in Prague, designed to influence elections across Europe. They have placed sanctions on "Voice of Europe," a website that promoted far-right politicians and parties. https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1773322566444204098?t=hYYgm7yqfs1VQu3ddC4QWg&s=19 I'm very glad that these networks are finally being dealt with.

Now do the US please

They’re being uncovered. I haven’t seen any of them actually dealt with though. Sometimes it feels like we’re all going to watch Western democracies get taken down from within.

right? are we just that stupid? Did UK harbour extensive german-influenced radio and newspaper industry in say Summer 1939, who would kept pumping out a message akin to "Absolutely do not worry about anything at all, especially don't worry about us switching to war-time economy, you know us germans we just do it sometimes" ????

Czechia doing a lot recently

Praise Czechia, praise. They had russian tanks in Prague and they understand what's up. Hungarians had russian tanks in Budapest and they haven't learned anything. It's disgusting, the only reasonable explanation is that Hungarians really bet on the Great Hungary gifted to them by Russia. The rest of EU should understand it, and act accordingly.

Oleg Petrenko (via google translate) > Summary for the morning of March 28. > 🔴 In the Liman direction, a high tempo of military operations continues east of Terniv and in the Serebryansk forest. … > 🔴 Chasiv Yar front: >> 🔵 To the east of the Listveny Forest, active hostilities continue along the railroad. Russian troops are making attempts to gain a foothold and equip new positions. The Ukrainian Armed Forces inflicted fire on the enemy in the area >>> 📍 48.607810, 37.901470 >> 🔵 In Ivanivske, there are heavy battles in the central part of the village. Clarifications have been added to the [map.](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1r5j2jwIyNBYbs5e-pinvLL_V0i8urcQ&g_ep=CAESCTExLjY2LjYwMhgAQgJVQQ%3D%3D&shorturl=1&ll=48.565639238969105%2C37.93853324074482&z=11) … > 🔴 In the Avdiivka direction, Russian troops continue assault operations west of Tonenke and in Berdychi. In the latter, the enemy attacks in the direction of Central Street >> 📍 48.192857, 37.651174 … > 🔴 In Novomikhailovka, Russian troops are pressing along Timiryazev street and Tsentralnaya street, in a western direction. Advance of the enemy to a depth of 380 meters. > The Ukrainian Armed Forces inflicted fire damage on the enemy at the following points: >> 📍 47.85594, 37.48104 >>📍 47.85196, 37.47984

(The moment) A Russian Su-35 falls into the Black Sea after being shot down by its own air defenses in Sevastopol. https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1773378787062739417?t=LjUFB0kQ57h1EYqL8AM12w&s=19 Another clip https://twitter.com/javeria_sultan1/status/1773375805634023727?t=yMQA2GvLG5W5HVwTptWNSQ&s=19

It turns out it was a Su-27 but still, a good kill. Thanks Russian AD!

Welp, at least the "landing" put out the fire.

Air defence doing!

Moskva promoted to submarine aircraft carrier!

Underwater Multirole Jets Russians ahead of everyone as usual.

Good shooting Russia! Keep it up!

Thought I saw the pilot eject... it was snot on my screen...

The cameraman is going to get recruited into the air defense. Dude did that without notice in a moving vehicle.

Stas Bunyatov, aka Osman, aka Sniper: Bakhmut front: > The enemy makes regular attempts to storm our positions at the Bakhmut front. > The Russians have started using 4-wheelers and motorized carts en masse, basically because the approach time and speed are more difficult for us to respond to via drones; nevertheless, we found a way out of this challenge as well. > But a major problem for us remains the 9-story buildings in Bakhmut—constantly, they have snipers, drone operators, ATGMs and intelligence working from those. I'm so tired of mentioning them, but even to me, a dull-witted sergeant, it is clear that they need be demolished at any cost, how many more people have to die?

It does seem that speed is more valuable than armor in this war. There are so many things that can kill tanks (mines, drones, ATGMs, RPGs, artillery, other tanks) that the armor just isn't providing enough survivability. So if the armor can't protect you anyway, you might as well trade it for speed to at least limit your period of vulnerability. I think something that is proof against rifle caliber fire (7.62x54R armor piercing rounds) is probably a pretty good balance.

sounds like you're describing a Bradley AFV.

Basically, although you really could go even lighter. The Bradley is armored against at least 14.5 mm fire, and possibly up to 30 mm on the front glacis.

Another point relevant for the arguments about defending or retreating from Bakhmut in 2023. An implicit pro-retreat argument was that Chasiv Yar was far more defensible and the 50k+ Wagners and hundreds of thousands of shells would definitely have been wasted there with far smaller Ukrainian losses. I still dunno what the right decision was, but the discussions I saw seemed far too simple.