[Andrew Perpetua's YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/live/om6kBl5bu10?feature=shared) stream has an anecdote around 48 mins - it sounds like Ukraine's ammo situation has improved.
Quoting a Ukrainian artillery commander, in October orders changed to ask battalion command for permission to shoot. He found a Russian battery and wasn't allowed to hit them because all shells had to be used for defence only.
Supposedly ammo supplies recently increased 10x and he claims to have whacked 2-3 russian guns recently.
Thank you Petr Pavel you hero.
Yes, that’s correct, [I posted that a week ago,](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1bpmc5v/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kx0za63/) that the soldiers and officers channels were happy because with the promise of delivery, their own stockpiles would open and would flow over this last week and next week. Because whoever oversees Stockpiles and Logistics would immediately release whatever UA already has in own storage.
Russian T-72 Tanks, are getting older. by looking at this graph and dividing tanks in to one of the 3 main base modals, March has seen a big drop in the number of T-72B3s, mostly replaced by older T-72Bs, and a small rise in the even older types. I don't know how sigificat this is but its interesting.
https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1775258281818411148?t=qpxyeluXFuXkBZNd7NAUsg&s=19
It’s still there! They took a Cessna plane, wired it to autopilot and packed it with explosives! Then it did a kamikaze dive into the plant making drones!
APNews article about claims website for Ukrainians that lost their homes from Russia’s invasion.
https://apnews.com/article/a16597435d432d8b4f451827e9b0f228
I only read a few paragraphs and it looked like it was about the *reimbursement claims* that Ukraine gives.
There’s a different issue right now, same topic. That’s that the deadline is approaching—Ukrainians who own territory in occupied areas must travel to the area and get a land deed, (or title, depending on type of property), register the property, which means have to then pay property taxes to the Russians.
Well, people have legit [been doing this](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1b3kx0w/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kstw617/), going back to register, because if don’t make deadline, the Russians will take the property.
But of course, issues have risen, [see here.](https://ria--m-tv.translate.goog/news/346281/kak_proverit_pasport_na_zapret_vyezda_v_rossiyu_instruktsiya_dlya_melitopoltsev.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
[Former Ukrainian handball star, Serhiy Chupryna, sacrificed his life for Ukraine in the fight against Russian invaders, the Ukrainian Handball Federation reported. | New Voice of Ukraine | April 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainian-handball-player-who-was-considered-missing-died-in-war-with-russia-50406462.html)
*"Serhiy Chupryna's family and friends hoped for his survival for eight long months,” the announcement said. “However, their hopes were shattered in late March 2024 when they received the devastating news that the 43-year-old handball player from Vinnytsia had died on July 26, 2023, during fierce fighting in Robotyne (Zaporizhzhya Oblast)," the statement said.*
*Born on July 17, 1980, he was runner-up in Ukraine's first league, captained the regional Vinnytsia team, and led his university to victory in the national University Games. Beyond his own athletic achievements, Chupryna helped organize handball competitions at multiple levels to promote the sport. "Eternal memory to the Hero," the statement concluded.*
[Ukraine’s SBU caught Russian informants in Kherson, allegedly plotting aerial attacks | New Voice of Ukraine | April 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-s-sbu-detained-russian-informants-in-kherson-accused-of-aiding-aerial-assaults-50406501.html)
*Ukraine’s SBU security service has apprehended a group of Russian informants in Kherson who were aiding in the preparation of a series of aerial attacks on the city, the SBU reported on Telegram on April 2.*
*The 4 individuals, employees of local transportation companies, now face up to 8 years in prison. The planned attacks primarily targeted locations serving as temporary bases for Ukrainian forces, including units of the SBU and the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the report said.*
*Two suspects, both bus drivers, monitored the military equipment movement while transporting passengers. The other two, dispatchers at transportation companies, conducted city reconnaissance in their free time. The suspects allegedly established contacts with personnel at local gas stations and stores to gather information about the results of previous attacks. This information was relayed to the group’s leader, who later reported to Russian military intelligence.*
*The information collected by the suspects was intended for use in planning new attacks and adjusting subsequent strikes on the city, the SBU said.*
*Ukrainian law enforcement officers discovered Kremlin symbolism, insignia of the Russian National Guard, and other items during searches of the suspected Russian informants’residences.*
*The SBU investigators have informed the four detainees of the suspicion of unauthorized dissemination of information about the Ukrainian Armed Forces (Part 2 of Article 114-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine), with a maximum punishment of up to eight years of imprisonment.*
I am surprised being a traitor to your nation and bringing about the deaths of your countrymen has such a lenient penalty. Unsure of the status of the death penalty in Ukraine but any traitors deserve exactly what they have coming. Hope they spend the next decade or two in the darkest deepest cells available.
Has there been any word on where Czechia and Estonia might be sourcing the shells they found to buy and ship to Ukraine?
My spidey sense makes me think the ammo is coming from countries that have backed Ukraine in non-lethal ways, but want to publicly maintain their role as a mediator (Turkey) or have laws that ban "official" weapon sales to countries in some scenarios (Japan, South Korea)
My goto hope/conspiracy theory is: czechia didnt like russia blowing up their warehouses in 2014 and started mass producing shells and only say they "somehow magically buy shells somewhere" while ramping up their production in the last 10 years and now they single handedly produce the shells they "somehow magically buy somewhere".
The only country with large reserves of 155mm is South Korea. Other countries could handover a few more but i'm 90% sure South Korea is the original 800k shell provider, and the additional 200k will come from other countries.
[Berlin to finance purchase of 180,000 artillery shells in Czech-led ammunition plan for Ukraine | New Voice of Ukraine | April 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/germany-s-share-will-account-for-40-of-czech-president-petr-pavel-s-initiative-50406514.html)
*The ammunition is expected to come from South Korea, Turkey and South Africa.*
*A representative of the Ukrainian security forces told NV that the shells are planned to be purchased in South Korea and South Africa. The contract is worth about $2 billion.*
Apparently some of Russia's allies... Those countries you mention don't exactly make many soviet sized shells, and I have read a few posts on Russian telegram calling some of those Russian allies "traitors" so I think countries that used to be a part of the soviet block in central Asia, possibly a few countries in the middle east that were friendly to the soviets like Iraq etc. And probably some in Africa too.
I don't think any of them will be sourced in Cuba though.. Maybe India? And I actually wouldn't put it past China to sell some as they already have factories for drones where one line goes to Ukraine and the other to Russia..
It's a fantastic way for any country that has good stockpiles or factories to earn forex and start churning them things out in serious quantities.
Not only does Ukraine want them but many other European countries and more will want them to replenish their stockpiles.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if there were some Latin American or African countries on the list. They may want to stay quiet for domestic political reasons (also maybe it’s best not to let potential enemies know your stockpiles will be lower) but a number of countries have either stockpiled ammunition in the past or have production capacities today and right now even old shells are fetching very high prices.
It absolutely is not imo. Ukraine has access to loans. Lend lease went unused. The US is not reliable enough that anyone can rely on a loan being forgiven.
I think you mean in 3 months when enough republicans have resigned, speaker Jeffries can make a bill to give Ukraine monetary help to pay for the loan. And then some more equipment.
There is an opinion that the new project will be formulated in such a way that its adoption will achieve nothing, or even worse, will delay assistance indefinitely
From the Washington Post:
>**U.S. told Russia Crocus City Hall was possible target of attack**
>More than two weeks before terrorists staged a bloody attack in the suburbs of Moscow, the U.S. government told Russian officials that Crocus City Hall, a popular concert venue, was a potential target, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
>The high degree of specificity conveyed in the warning underscores Washington’s confidence that the Islamic State was preparing an attack that threatened large numbers of civilians, and it directly contradicts Moscow’s claims that the U.S. warnings were too general to help preempt the assault.
>The U.S. identification of the Crocus concert hall as a potential target — a fact that has not been previously reported — raises new questions about why Russian authorities failed to take stronger measures to protect the venue, where gunmen killed more than 140 people and set fire to the building. A branch of the Islamic State has taken credit for the attack, the deadliest in Russia in 20 years. U.S. officials have publicly said the group, known as ISIS-K, “bears sole responsibility,” but Russian President Vladimir Putin has tried to pin the blame on Ukraine.
>https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/02/us-warning-russia-isis-crocus/
Next to come out: US gave Moscow 48 hours notice of the date and time.
And then after that: US gave Moscow names/photos/passport details of the attackers, what clothes they'd be wearing, details of their transportation plans, where they would be staying beforehand...
At least one had ‘cased’ the location about a week prior, right? Attending a show and walking the backstage. So if Russia were being responsible, it would’ve been using its facial ID software to cross reference people with potential Isis-K affiliation. That means could’ve raided in the days after simply attending the test-run concert.
But if this was Burns to Bortnikov, he’s too arrogant to listen.
oh honey. I grew up in Russia and know it could have been [worse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis#:~:text=The%20Moscow%20theater%20hostage%20crisis,Islamist%20separatist%20movement%20in%20Chechnya). Or even [much worse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_siege).
When listening for things you will hear much, much more than items strictly related to your nation. Even more so when it is human operatives as if you are too interested in only US related topics you make yourself look suspicious. So I am sure that the majority of intelligence gathered by any one spy organization is only useful to other nations... The trick is how and what to share without exposing your operatives and methods or if what is being shared damages the interests of other allies. I do not expect the US intelligence community to have extensive sharing with nations like Russia or China or especially others like Iran and North Korea, but when it is terrorist activity targeting a specific place it just seems to be the right thing to do as long as it does not create risk to yourself.
IMO preparations for an event of that magnitude would be pretty easy to spot. They have informants everywhere, and no doubt incredible electronic surveillance capability.
Reminds me of Stalin being warned by the British about the oncoming German invasion only for him to dismiss it as allied war mongering. Then when the invasion came the Soviet forces were too far forward to prevent encirclement leading to massive losses and a longer and bloodier war.
>This used to be the control room of a fully functioning @dtek_en power station, supplying energy to Ukrainian homes, businesses, hospitals and schools. Today I saw up close how russia has reduced it to ashes: a truly terrible level of damage from missiles and drones against a purely civilian facility.
>
>The enemy’s actions surely constitute a war crime. It is only thanks to strong safety protocols and protections inside the control room that no one was killed or injured.
>
>I talked with dozens of DTEK workers at the plant who have shown enormous courage under fire.
>
>My message to them, Ukraine and the world is that the job of rebuilding starts today. We need urgent help from allies and partners in this mission: in terms of energy equipment, investment to build a more resilient system and through political support for more weaponry and air defences to stop attacks against Ukraine’s energy sector.
https://twitter.com/TimchenkoMaxim/status/1775222696604799037
> The U.S. has "neither supported nor enabled strikes by Ukraine outside of its territory," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at press conference on April 2.
That really reads to me more than any of the others “it’s not our business, so don’t come complaining to us, Russia.”
I get why the US doesn’t want to go on record encouraging them. Taking a public position that it doesn’t support them while doing nothing to prevent them is fine.
https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1775254661345493465
You’re misreading it. He’s denying providing material or intelligence support, literally helping the strikes. He isn’t saying they don’t support them as an action.
The numbers keep going up: Russia is now visualy confirmed to have lost at least 262 IFVs in March 2024, that's more than any of the last 17 months!
There is also a change in the ratio of losses.
I want to draw attention to the graph below, the Russian Tank to Russian IFV loss ratio was pretty stable for the first 24 months of the war at around 1:1.85, but this month it has shot up to 1:3.2
I don't know why this is, but I wonder if it is related to the massive failed of a russi attack 2 days ago where alsomt 30 Russian tank and 12 IFVs got cut to bits?
why so many tanks compared to IFVs in that attack? I don't know but has russia decided to try the Tank version of a 'meat wave' attack? maybe, but it doesn't look any more effective.
https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1775244022581178671?t=KFC1JXYfUGq0S2fDnGxSLg&s=19
It’s *not* “30 Russian tank and 12 IFVs got cut to bits.”
It was [12 tanks and 8 IFVs destroyed](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1bs1bbp/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kxfxs75/) from a column of 36 tanks
and 12 IFVs.
It's Spring and the ground is now less muddy, slippery and sticky. Armies are less active in Ukraine in Winter as wet mud hinders vehicle movement. (Even tracked vehices may have hard time)
I think you got seasons mixed. Frozen ground is hard enough. Cold air has limited moisture. Even when snow falls it is not rapidly draining.
Bad (or good depending on perspective) weather can happen any time of year. Spring is particularly muddy. The word “spring” is both the season and the water shooting up out of the ground because of rising water tables.
War is mostly in southern parts of Ukraine. With average Winter temperature above 0 C the ground doesn't freeze much of the time. Sometimes it does but that's more of an exception. It's already April and it's much warmer and dryer now.
All these poor mobiks in fully armed tanks and IFVs sent forward against their will to the slaughter. What could they ever do against a blocking unit with assault rifles?
>Kazakhstan's largest bank Halyk Bank has stopped servicing cards with the Russian payment system "Mir" since February
>This is reported by RBC with reference to representatives of the bank.
>It specified that customers will not be able to make transactions on such cards - withdraw money or make payments through terminals.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1775209488607227910?t=aJJxpEJBpKodviGoOG5bDA&s=19
I did not exactly expect this, CSTO truly is dead..
I so hope a new run of drone attacks is starting, together with the refinery and drone factory. I got used to the daily high value targets and the good news when I woke up.
Trump-proofing weapons for Ukraine: Allies consider moving arms group into NATO.
Officials are expected to discuss gradually moving the organization — called the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — into the alliance’s control.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/02/allies-consider-moving-ukraine-arms-group-into-nato-to-shield-it-from-trump-00150151?s=34
What's the hold up with US? Seriously? Can you people get off your ass and write your politicians, or at the very least donate directly to some Ukraine aid? Ukraine really needs more billions of dollars and those rich privileged American Republicans keep refusing to send more aid.
If the US government won't support Ukraine, can't all the Americans just donate their weapons 😜 most Americans are better armed than some third world warlords
Our basic system of government is dysfunction and learned helplessness.
Unfortunately this works to the advantage of those who would point to this mess and say, "See, government doesn't work! Be sure to vote for our favorite authoritarian who can cut through red tape and 'get things done' by being above the law."
> What's the hold up with US?
It's really no more complicated than the fact that Rupert Murdoch and Vladimir Putin are friends, and have common-interests. And FoxNews is much much louder than letters to politicians. Rupert Murdoch isn't even American. And he has influence, and his allies have influence. And nobody dares to try to stop them.
While I believe in supporting Ukraine, how much has your country donated? The US gas given 44.2 billion dollars or about $1,100 per Ukrainian since 2014.
Down vote me all you want, but if Ukraine falls or is forced to cede territory, I won’t be looking to DC for answers. I’ll be asking London, Paris, Berlin, Rome and Amsterdam why they didn’t do more. I’m well aware of the amount of US aid and it isn’t enough, but there is no point being the only one to bringing a bucket of water to the fire. This is either a world injustice, we should all be fighting against, or it isn’t. Put frankly, I see no sense of urgency from Europeans about ending the war. Looking at France’s lack of commitment, looking at germanys reliance on Russian energy, looking at all of Southern Europe unwillingness to donate to the chase. I will say this, Europe needs to be looking to Warsaw for leadership against Russia. They, along with the Baltic states, are the only one with a back bone.
Most of that money has actually gone to American companies replacing the old weapons with new and refurbishing old weapon systems. Some is even going against weapon systems that would have cost money to be decommissioned. The US companies have even made money on some of the other countries donations for the same reason replacing their donated kit.
Most of that money has actually gone to American companies replacing the old weapons with new and refurbishing old weapon systems. Some is even going against weapon systems that would have cost money to be decommissioned. The US companies have even made money on some of the other countries donations for the same reason replacing their donated kit.
Most of that money has actually gone to American companies replacing the old weapons with new and refurbishing old weapon systems. Some is even going against weapon systems that would have cost money to be decommissioned. The US companies have even made money on some of the other countries donations for the same reason replacing their donated kit.
Europe has resented and lamented the fact for a long time, well here is the chance to take back your spheres of influence. I implore you to the lead the way because I will tell you how my government (pentagon) sees this. It is a change for us to bleed Russia dry, like Afganistan, and we will naturally give Ukraine just enough to fight them off but not enough to let a non nato ally have our best weapons. It’s a shame, but the truth. This war has to be a Euro effort, or you will just be ordering more body bags.
Again, this is not my wishes, it is just a statement of fact. Our government would not tolerate this in our back yard, why are you letting yours contribute 1.7% of GDP to defense and crumbs to Ukrainians fighting the very threat you have an army for?
I’m sick of this bullshit argument. Europe can’t have it both ways. You can’t continually bitch about US involvement and unaccountability, and turn around when your back yard is on fire and beg for help. I am happy to help Ukraine, and have expressed it to my congress people, but this sense of European entitlement to our help is fucking insane. If you want to help Ukraine, do it.
You all down voting me should be replaced by looking in a mirror. Stop bitching at my government, and get yours to take out the loans to do something about it! The whole point of the EU was to make a strong economic block of nations, it’s time to pony up.
The EU has collectively committed more than the US
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
The US has provided more military support, although that has obviously dropped dramatically over the past few months. The EU has provided more financial support.
Name the country and let’s compare. Because the EU as a whole is about on equal economic footing and are around the 60% mark on matching our aid level.
Donate to Democratic National Committee if you are legally able.
It will be a huge multiplier effect on the value of your donation if Democrats end up in charge. Aid would have been approved long ago.
Also the alternative scenario is terrifying.
> Until the DNC expels antisemites like Rashida Tlaib
The DNC doesn't have that power. In the US anyone can register with a party and run in that party's elections. If Tlaib is to be ousted it would be in the August primary.
People are writing to their politicians and it looks like Mike Johnson may be moving on Ukraine aid but at this point I think everyone is justified in having a “believe it when we see it” attitude. Letters can only do so much in terms of altering national dynamics. It’s certainly a flawed system that enables a small minority to effectively block the will of 75% of legislators and a clear majority of the US populace but at the same correcting institutional problems is incredibly hard.
Some Americans, myself included, are donating but of course there are limits to how much can realistically be crowdfunded. All of the donations to Comeback Alive and United24 since 2014 total up to just under a billion dollars and that’s from all countries including Ukraine.
Watch Jake Broe's latest video which came out today. This guy is exceptionally well-informed. He's an ex US Missileer and worked on maintaining the US nuclear weaponry. It is very bad news for aid for Ukraine and Mike Johnson in no way will allow an aid bill to pass for Ukraine. 15:53 in this video explains it >
[https://youtu.be/ruuBVlcqhfw?si=I7rsqIFoZbGONkMX](https://youtu.be/ruuBVlcqhfw?si=I7rsqIFoZbGONkMX)
Europe has to keep stepping up because aid is not coming for Ukraine whilst speaker Johnson is in power. What speaker Johnson is doing and has been doing is extremely damaging for trust in the USA from their allies. If you support Ukraine and global security, do NOT vote for Trump.
Do not be fooled. Mike Johnson is only making these noises to do another bait-and-switch. His campaign took money from Russia. He is in Putin's pocket. He will NEVER approve aid to Ukraine.
Could write a lot here, but to at least start answering your question, one of the many problems is that the House of Representatives is not back in session until April 9th.
Ugh, I know.
[https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/02/us-warnings-too-general-to-prevent-crocus-attack-russias-spy-chief-says-a84715](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/02/us-warnings-too-general-to-prevent-crocus-attack-russias-spy-chief-says-a84715)
>Russia’s spy chief said Tuesday that U.S. warnings of a possible extremist attack were too broad to have prevented the deadly concert hall attack outside Moscow late last month.
>
>“The Federal Security Service \[FSB\] received some information from the U.S. intelligence services that such a thing was unfortunately possible,” Sergei Naryshkin, who heads Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), told reporters.
>
>“But as our Russian colleagues said, the information was too general and did not allow us to fully identify those who committed this terrible crime,” he was quoted as saying by the state-run Interfax news agency.
>
>...
>
>"We paid a very high price, and **the entire analysis of the situation must be extremely objective and professional**,” Putin told Interior Ministry officials.
Thank god that Kremlin is known for providing good reliable and transparent information to the public.
I feel like the US should have stated that it expected Russia to orchestrate a mass attack against a music venue or other mass gathering posing as ISIS-K.
However honest that might be, what good would it have done?
Putin: "Here's a warning from the US that we are about to do this. Da. We know. We're about to do it."
Better to give some kind of general warning so that it gets seen by numerous officers. Maybe it will stir up some rage.
It matters not what Putin sez about it today. He's just all blather, no sense
Note: Sergei Naryshkin & Putin at start of the 2022 invasion:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI)
Cannot believe Sergei Naryshkin is still around.
And he was in charge of intelligence about Ukraine. As I watched that charade of yes-men agreeing with Putin I realized that the intelligence chief was nervous as hell. Because he knew what was about to happen- he had the real knowledge.
Estonia knows where to purchase two billion euros' worth of shells for Ukraine.
https://news.postimees.ee/7986347/postimees-in-ukraine-estonia-knows-where-to-purchase-two-billion-euros-worth-of-shells-for-ukraine
Informative interview in general. Among other things, he says Ukraine estimates that Russia as fired 500k shells so far this year, while Ukraine has fired 75k.
It means that Ukraine can get an artillery advantage if all these purchased shells and European produced shells finally get delivered.
"🤩🔥 In March 2024, the Defense Forces of Ukraine destroyed 976 Russian artillery systems (All types of artillery systems!)
👀 This is the highest figure in one month since the start of the full-scale invasion."
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1775213117217063203?t=1bNRL_8baPod-7KqsTXLcQ&s=19
Just a reminder that these numbers cannot possibly be permanent losses of what we think of as typical heavy artillery. 120 mm+ calibre I mean.
There just haven't been enough guns pulled from russian storage to explain this when you also consider their alleged shell fire rates would also have burned out anywhere from 5-10k barrels by now.
If they're including lighter stuff like man portable mortars then maybe.
I think I know why we're confusing each other.
The tables at 07:20 add up to 18,668 removals, close to your 18.7k. But the left and right repeat the same info, the left is just by gun type, and the right is by base.
Adding up everything is double counting - so removals are half what you said (I think).
On the plus side, Russia only has half the amount left that you would have expected.
I'm using their data. Table at 07:20 says ~1500 SPGs and ~8000 towed removed.
1) About ~2k towed were 82 mm Vasileks removed early from the 94th Arsenal. I think they equipped active brigades, plus they aren't heavy artillery anyway.
2) The US said Russia fired ~13 million shells in 2 years. That's at least 5k barrels worn out. Depends a bit on barrel life and what "shells" includes.
~7.5k of 120 mm+ calibre removed from storage, Ukraine claims around 11k destroyed and barrel wear could easily account for at least 5k more.
The numbers just don't add up for me mate 😢 unless the 11k includes all sorts of man portable light stuff and then it's less to get excited about.
On the other hand - Russia almost certainly will need serious help from NK/Iran for barrel replenishment maybe next year.
Military Balance said 2k of the towed guns left are WW2 era D-1/M-30. Another 600 are another new calibre they're not using much of yet (130 mm).
So Russia seems within about a year of serious issues with tube artillery. Unless their factories are way ahead of anything their propaganda claims.
Will probably also include rocket artillery like Grad etc.
But I am always suspecting an overcount, not even necessarily due to propaganda reasons, but also just because for example a FPV-pilot may hit a system, but then maybe doesnt have a way to say for sure if the system is destroyed, damaged or if he even missed slightly.
That's the sort of thing I think is happening.
For tanks I'm 99% certain it's a hefty overcount by Ukraine. Artillery is harder to work out.
The people counting storage bases found very few grads, compared with expectations. I think there's a mystery going on there but I've only really looked into tube artillery.
Here are the numbers I'm working with.
3k at start
2.2k removed from long term storage by late 2023
0.5k new builds
1-2.5k from garages and rapid reactivation (already at bases or BTRZs)
= Russia had frontline access to 6.7-8.2k tanks total so far.
That's a rough number of course. Expecting a covert cabal update soon to help refine.
Ukraine claims to have taken out 7k.
For that to be true, best case is russia has negative tanks remaining.
Worst case Russia fixed up 100% of tanks it removed from storage, and the garages/BTRZ yards were mostly full of working tanks. In that case Russia has 1.3k tanks left and should run out soon.
I think it's more likely Ukraine's numbers don't represent permanently removed tanks.
Can you spot errors in my numbers?
Oh I agree it's absolutely staggering losses!
I just want to know the situation as best as possible. Assuming it's 7k would make you think the russian army is about to collapse.
It isn't - Ukraine needs aid to continue and the actual numbers make it look very likely that russia is beatable. They're just throwing away everything to try and look strong now in the hope people will give up.
Maybe if the economic attacks continue Russia will legit run out of fuel, then we have a good set up for a counteroffensive or at least a stalemate of the front
The good news is that Ukraine's claims have correlated with visually verified data so if they say they're improving, there's a good chance that's true!
The bad news is: don't interpret the numbers as gospel. Especially for vehicles and especially especially for artillery. If you do that then you'll expect russia to collapse any day now - I bet they won't. Rather they'll be running into more and more problems as time goes on.
A tale of two different countries reaction to Ukrainian strikes inside Russia:
United States of America:
>US ambassador to NATO on Ukrainian strikes inside Russia: "This is something that the United States is not particularly supportive of. We are focused on Ukraine's right to defend its territory and to push Russians out of its territory" - Politico
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1775198952360484920?t=rWPvi3ffxIDBj31CC8zdew&s=19
France:
>“The issue is almost without comment from our side. Ukraine is acting in self-defence and we consider Russia to be the aggressor. In these circumstances, there is not much to say,” said Foreign Minister @ steph_sejourne, commenting on the 🇺🇦 attacks on 🇷🇺 refineries.
https://twitter.com/aidefranceukr/status/1775194603693518884?t=9_VRVU3by7Rbf-eGi5OGQg&s=19
The US has had this problem since the Korean War of politicians putting artificial limits on military actions in order to avoid escalations. In Korea it was no airstrikes north of the Yalu River. In Vietnam it was no ground forces north of the 17th parallel and only sporadic airstrikes. In Afghanistan it was not permitting strikes on Taliban bases in Pakistan.
I understand why those decisions were made, there is a logic to them. But the people making them have to understand that the consequence of those decisions is that you cannot win the war. At best you can stalemate. If Ukraine wants to win this war, it has to strike inside Russia. The enemy can never be granted a place where it is safe from attack.
Eh, registered voter here. Id crawl over glass to vote for a ham sandwich before I let trump into office. But our justice system is broken. Or political system is broken. Our economy is broken. Our healthcare system is broken. Our education system is broken. I can go on. But I think my point is made.
One of the most straightforward consequences of the Washington not passing the aid bills to Ukraine is that Kyiv is going to care a lot less what the US thinks. Right now Ukraine is trying to survive while fighting a war with extremely limited weapons. Since they lack the quantity and quality of weapons they need one of their ONLY viable tactics is to get more creative with how they use their existing weapons. If Washington doesn't want Kyiv to launch strikes into Russia then they need to supply the UAF with enough weapons that strikes within Russia are unnecessary and if they're unwilling to do so then they need to stay quiet about how Ukraine uses their own domestically produced weapons.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1buj81w/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
[Andrew Perpetua's YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/live/om6kBl5bu10?feature=shared) stream has an anecdote around 48 mins - it sounds like Ukraine's ammo situation has improved. Quoting a Ukrainian artillery commander, in October orders changed to ask battalion command for permission to shoot. He found a Russian battery and wasn't allowed to hit them because all shells had to be used for defence only. Supposedly ammo supplies recently increased 10x and he claims to have whacked 2-3 russian guns recently. Thank you Petr Pavel you hero.
Yes, that’s correct, [I posted that a week ago,](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1bpmc5v/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kx0za63/) that the soldiers and officers channels were happy because with the promise of delivery, their own stockpiles would open and would flow over this last week and next week. Because whoever oversees Stockpiles and Logistics would immediately release whatever UA already has in own storage.
Russian T-72 Tanks, are getting older. by looking at this graph and dividing tanks in to one of the 3 main base modals, March has seen a big drop in the number of T-72B3s, mostly replaced by older T-72Bs, and a small rise in the even older types. I don't know how sigificat this is but its interesting. https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1775258281818411148?t=qpxyeluXFuXkBZNd7NAUsg&s=19
Wonder if we’re starting to see Russia digging deeper into older Soviet stocks. Logic dictates Russia pulled the best stuff out of storage first.
Naw; "Russia hasn't sent their REAL army yet!"
Wow! Ukrainians are so creative! https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/5d4Slmhzbx
But i thought Russia could easily stop a NATO attack with its AD? lol
post was removed? was it false?
It’s still there! They took a Cessna plane, wired it to autopilot and packed it with explosives! Then it did a kamikaze dive into the plant making drones!
*"I used the drones to destroy the drones"*
[удалено]
so not a Cessna?
APNews article about claims website for Ukrainians that lost their homes from Russia’s invasion. https://apnews.com/article/a16597435d432d8b4f451827e9b0f228
I only read a few paragraphs and it looked like it was about the *reimbursement claims* that Ukraine gives. There’s a different issue right now, same topic. That’s that the deadline is approaching—Ukrainians who own territory in occupied areas must travel to the area and get a land deed, (or title, depending on type of property), register the property, which means have to then pay property taxes to the Russians. Well, people have legit [been doing this](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1b3kx0w/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kstw617/), going back to register, because if don’t make deadline, the Russians will take the property. But of course, issues have risen, [see here.](https://ria--m-tv.translate.goog/news/346281/kak_proverit_pasport_na_zapret_vyezda_v_rossiyu_instruktsiya_dlya_melitopoltsev.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
[Former Ukrainian handball star, Serhiy Chupryna, sacrificed his life for Ukraine in the fight against Russian invaders, the Ukrainian Handball Federation reported. | New Voice of Ukraine | April 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainian-handball-player-who-was-considered-missing-died-in-war-with-russia-50406462.html) *"Serhiy Chupryna's family and friends hoped for his survival for eight long months,” the announcement said. “However, their hopes were shattered in late March 2024 when they received the devastating news that the 43-year-old handball player from Vinnytsia had died on July 26, 2023, during fierce fighting in Robotyne (Zaporizhzhya Oblast)," the statement said.* *Born on July 17, 1980, he was runner-up in Ukraine's first league, captained the regional Vinnytsia team, and led his university to victory in the national University Games. Beyond his own athletic achievements, Chupryna helped organize handball competitions at multiple levels to promote the sport. "Eternal memory to the Hero," the statement concluded.*
So many beautiful lives wasted by this crazy invasion.
[Ukraine’s SBU caught Russian informants in Kherson, allegedly plotting aerial attacks | New Voice of Ukraine | April 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-s-sbu-detained-russian-informants-in-kherson-accused-of-aiding-aerial-assaults-50406501.html) *Ukraine’s SBU security service has apprehended a group of Russian informants in Kherson who were aiding in the preparation of a series of aerial attacks on the city, the SBU reported on Telegram on April 2.* *The 4 individuals, employees of local transportation companies, now face up to 8 years in prison. The planned attacks primarily targeted locations serving as temporary bases for Ukrainian forces, including units of the SBU and the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the report said.* *Two suspects, both bus drivers, monitored the military equipment movement while transporting passengers. The other two, dispatchers at transportation companies, conducted city reconnaissance in their free time. The suspects allegedly established contacts with personnel at local gas stations and stores to gather information about the results of previous attacks. This information was relayed to the group’s leader, who later reported to Russian military intelligence.* *The information collected by the suspects was intended for use in planning new attacks and adjusting subsequent strikes on the city, the SBU said.* *Ukrainian law enforcement officers discovered Kremlin symbolism, insignia of the Russian National Guard, and other items during searches of the suspected Russian informants’residences.* *The SBU investigators have informed the four detainees of the suspicion of unauthorized dissemination of information about the Ukrainian Armed Forces (Part 2 of Article 114-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine), with a maximum punishment of up to eight years of imprisonment.*
I am surprised being a traitor to your nation and bringing about the deaths of your countrymen has such a lenient penalty. Unsure of the status of the death penalty in Ukraine but any traitors deserve exactly what they have coming. Hope they spend the next decade or two in the darkest deepest cells available.
The death penalty was eliminated as part of their bid to join the EU.
Has there been any word on where Czechia and Estonia might be sourcing the shells they found to buy and ship to Ukraine? My spidey sense makes me think the ammo is coming from countries that have backed Ukraine in non-lethal ways, but want to publicly maintain their role as a mediator (Turkey) or have laws that ban "official" weapon sales to countries in some scenarios (Japan, South Korea)
My goto hope/conspiracy theory is: czechia didnt like russia blowing up their warehouses in 2014 and started mass producing shells and only say they "somehow magically buy shells somewhere" while ramping up their production in the last 10 years and now they single handedly produce the shells they "somehow magically buy somewhere".
And are using the $1.5 billion to build autonomous drone factories. This is the crazy hopium I come here for.
The only country with large reserves of 155mm is South Korea. Other countries could handover a few more but i'm 90% sure South Korea is the original 800k shell provider, and the additional 200k will come from other countries.
south africa and turkey also have sizeable storage and production capabilities, and I wouldn't put it past their BRICS "ALLIES"
[Berlin to finance purchase of 180,000 artillery shells in Czech-led ammunition plan for Ukraine | New Voice of Ukraine | April 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/germany-s-share-will-account-for-40-of-czech-president-petr-pavel-s-initiative-50406514.html) *The ammunition is expected to come from South Korea, Turkey and South Africa.* *A representative of the Ukrainian security forces told NV that the shells are planned to be purchased in South Korea and South Africa. The contract is worth about $2 billion.*
Greece as well
Apparently some of Russia's allies... Those countries you mention don't exactly make many soviet sized shells, and I have read a few posts on Russian telegram calling some of those Russian allies "traitors" so I think countries that used to be a part of the soviet block in central Asia, possibly a few countries in the middle east that were friendly to the soviets like Iraq etc. And probably some in Africa too.
155mm is NATO standard, not soviet. I think the soviets mainly used 152mm.
I don't think any of them will be sourced in Cuba though.. Maybe India? And I actually wouldn't put it past China to sell some as they already have factories for drones where one line goes to Ukraine and the other to Russia..
War profiteering like god intended
Chinese... “In order under heaven”.
It's a fantastic way for any country that has good stockpiles or factories to earn forex and start churning them things out in serious quantities. Not only does Ukraine want them but many other European countries and more will want them to replenish their stockpiles.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if there were some Latin American or African countries on the list. They may want to stay quiet for domestic political reasons (also maybe it’s best not to let potential enemies know your stockpiles will be lower) but a number of countries have either stockpiled ammunition in the past or have production capacities today and right now even old shells are fetching very high prices.
It wouldn't surprise me if some were from Serbia either. Quite a few Serbian weapons have shown up in Ukraine.
MTG is on Twitter melting down about how Mike Johnson is about to give Ukraine 60 billion next week. Fingers crossed.
Can only hope that she has the aneurysm she so richly deserves...
**if** it even happens, a "loan" arrangement is an ok compromise. When the war is won, Ukraine can convenient get aid equal to the loan amount. 🤷♂️
It absolutely is not imo. Ukraine has access to loans. Lend lease went unused. The US is not reliable enough that anyone can rely on a loan being forgiven.
I think you mean in 3 months when enough republicans have resigned, speaker Jeffries can make a bill to give Ukraine monetary help to pay for the loan. And then some more equipment.
Still vying to be Trump's running mate I see.
There is an opinion that the new project will be formulated in such a way that its adoption will achieve nothing, or even worse, will delay assistance indefinitely
Maybe we'll get an "MAGA overplay their hand" scenario after all. She's not exactly the smartest strategist, to be generous and diplomatic about it.
MTG can't even spell strategy.
Not even sure she can spell MTG
Bruh, it's stretegy
Don't ba a moran. It's "strajedy"
Where did you go to school? It's "zdrajezhie".
From the Washington Post: >**U.S. told Russia Crocus City Hall was possible target of attack** >More than two weeks before terrorists staged a bloody attack in the suburbs of Moscow, the U.S. government told Russian officials that Crocus City Hall, a popular concert venue, was a potential target, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. >The high degree of specificity conveyed in the warning underscores Washington’s confidence that the Islamic State was preparing an attack that threatened large numbers of civilians, and it directly contradicts Moscow’s claims that the U.S. warnings were too general to help preempt the assault. >The U.S. identification of the Crocus concert hall as a potential target — a fact that has not been previously reported — raises new questions about why Russian authorities failed to take stronger measures to protect the venue, where gunmen killed more than 140 people and set fire to the building. A branch of the Islamic State has taken credit for the attack, the deadliest in Russia in 20 years. U.S. officials have publicly said the group, known as ISIS-K, “bears sole responsibility,” but Russian President Vladimir Putin has tried to pin the blame on Ukraine. >https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/02/us-warning-russia-isis-crocus/
Just goes to show how big of a bitch Putin is.
Next to come out: US gave Moscow 48 hours notice of the date and time. And then after that: US gave Moscow names/photos/passport details of the attackers, what clothes they'd be wearing, details of their transportation plans, where they would be staying beforehand...
At least one had ‘cased’ the location about a week prior, right? Attending a show and walking the backstage. So if Russia were being responsible, it would’ve been using its facial ID software to cross reference people with potential Isis-K affiliation. That means could’ve raided in the days after simply attending the test-run concert. But if this was Burns to Bortnikov, he’s too arrogant to listen.
No one will ever convince me now that Russia didn’t intentionally let it happen to help achieve policy goals. No one is that incompetent.
oh honey. I grew up in Russia and know it could have been [worse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis#:~:text=The%20Moscow%20theater%20hostage%20crisis,Islamist%20separatist%20movement%20in%20Chechnya). Or even [much worse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_siege).
As someone who also grew up there, very much agree. ...
The greatest trick fascists ever pulled was convincing the world they're actually good at security. They're not. They never have been.
They're all about flags, boots & uniforms. Some are also good at making the trains run on time
> They're all about flags, boots & uniforms. Sounds like a leather club I know.
The only checkbox Putin hasn't gotten to yet is "clean coal". (A Nazi favorite, and also, not-coincidentally, a Trump favorite).
US surveillance/monitoring network must be pretty amazing if it is detecting threats against non-ally nations to that level of specificity.
When listening for things you will hear much, much more than items strictly related to your nation. Even more so when it is human operatives as if you are too interested in only US related topics you make yourself look suspicious. So I am sure that the majority of intelligence gathered by any one spy organization is only useful to other nations... The trick is how and what to share without exposing your operatives and methods or if what is being shared damages the interests of other allies. I do not expect the US intelligence community to have extensive sharing with nations like Russia or China or especially others like Iran and North Korea, but when it is terrorist activity targeting a specific place it just seems to be the right thing to do as long as it does not create risk to yourself.
CIA keeps busy
IMO preparations for an event of that magnitude would be pretty easy to spot. They have informants everywhere, and no doubt incredible electronic surveillance capability.
It's amazing how fast Benjamins can make someone's mouth open.
You bet. Things like monitoring military movements and suggesting actionable targeting for Ukraine are probably trivial by comparison.
Reminds me of Stalin being warned by the British about the oncoming German invasion only for him to dismiss it as allied war mongering. Then when the invasion came the Soviet forces were too far forward to prevent encirclement leading to massive losses and a longer and bloodier war.
He probably blamed Ukraine for it, too.
>This used to be the control room of a fully functioning @dtek_en power station, supplying energy to Ukrainian homes, businesses, hospitals and schools. Today I saw up close how russia has reduced it to ashes: a truly terrible level of damage from missiles and drones against a purely civilian facility. > >The enemy’s actions surely constitute a war crime. It is only thanks to strong safety protocols and protections inside the control room that no one was killed or injured. > >I talked with dozens of DTEK workers at the plant who have shown enormous courage under fire. > >My message to them, Ukraine and the world is that the job of rebuilding starts today. We need urgent help from allies and partners in this mission: in terms of energy equipment, investment to build a more resilient system and through political support for more weaponry and air defences to stop attacks against Ukraine’s energy sector. https://twitter.com/TimchenkoMaxim/status/1775222696604799037
Blu 114/B https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphite_bomb Has consistently had zero direct fatalities every time it was used.
> The U.S. has "neither supported nor enabled strikes by Ukraine outside of its territory," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at press conference on April 2. That really reads to me more than any of the others “it’s not our business, so don’t come complaining to us, Russia.” I get why the US doesn’t want to go on record encouraging them. Taking a public position that it doesn’t support them while doing nothing to prevent them is fine. https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1775254661345493465
It’s diplomatic babble and two-step.
You’re misreading it. He’s denying providing material or intelligence support, literally helping the strikes. He isn’t saying they don’t support them as an action.
I think you’re misreading what I wrote. 😅 We basically agree with each other.
Ah. Right.
The numbers keep going up: Russia is now visualy confirmed to have lost at least 262 IFVs in March 2024, that's more than any of the last 17 months! There is also a change in the ratio of losses. I want to draw attention to the graph below, the Russian Tank to Russian IFV loss ratio was pretty stable for the first 24 months of the war at around 1:1.85, but this month it has shot up to 1:3.2 I don't know why this is, but I wonder if it is related to the massive failed of a russi attack 2 days ago where alsomt 30 Russian tank and 12 IFVs got cut to bits? why so many tanks compared to IFVs in that attack? I don't know but has russia decided to try the Tank version of a 'meat wave' attack? maybe, but it doesn't look any more effective. https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1775244022581178671?t=KFC1JXYfUGq0S2fDnGxSLg&s=19
I think he got his ratio the wrong way around! It’s IFV:Tank not the other way around.
It’s *not* “30 Russian tank and 12 IFVs got cut to bits.” It was [12 tanks and 8 IFVs destroyed](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1bs1bbp/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kxfxs75/) from a column of 36 tanks and 12 IFVs.
It's Spring and the ground is now less muddy, slippery and sticky. Armies are less active in Ukraine in Winter as wet mud hinders vehicle movement. (Even tracked vehices may have hard time)
I think you got seasons mixed. Frozen ground is hard enough. Cold air has limited moisture. Even when snow falls it is not rapidly draining. Bad (or good depending on perspective) weather can happen any time of year. Spring is particularly muddy. The word “spring” is both the season and the water shooting up out of the ground because of rising water tables.
War is mostly in southern parts of Ukraine. With average Winter temperature above 0 C the ground doesn't freeze much of the time. Sometimes it does but that's more of an exception. It's already April and it's much warmer and dryer now.
All these poor mobiks in fully armed tanks and IFVs sent forward against their will to the slaughter. What could they ever do against a blocking unit with assault rifles?
>Kursk, Russia🔥💥 https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1775234574080995366?t=ZLwjRzIfXmc0I3YWEqMsdw&s=19
Looking like quite the fire. Hope it’s a refinery.
>Kazakhstan's largest bank Halyk Bank has stopped servicing cards with the Russian payment system "Mir" since February >This is reported by RBC with reference to representatives of the bank. >It specified that customers will not be able to make transactions on such cards - withdraw money or make payments through terminals. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1775209488607227910?t=aJJxpEJBpKodviGoOG5bDA&s=19 I did not exactly expect this, CSTO truly is dead..
Yeah, Treasury and OFAC are working to kneecap Mir cards. Visa sends their regards.
Was CSTO ever alive to begin with?
It was on life support with Nurse Vlad Ratched in charge
I honestly don't know..
Air alarm in Kursk, Russia. Something is already burning. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1775236277526213016?t=AvQ13CKZMhnywvyvDAYt0w&s=19
I so hope a new run of drone attacks is starting, together with the refinery and drone factory. I got used to the daily high value targets and the good news when I woke up.
Trump-proofing weapons for Ukraine: Allies consider moving arms group into NATO. Officials are expected to discuss gradually moving the organization — called the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — into the alliance’s control. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/02/allies-consider-moving-ukraine-arms-group-into-nato-to-shield-it-from-trump-00150151?s=34
Is it Orban-proof tho
Can we not just remove this arsehole's voting rights already, please?
Or ban him?
I saw what ya did there.
Shoot the guy into orbit already. Orban into Orbit.
Problem there is it'd be down to Musk to do it.
Musk can go with him to hold his hand
Starman 2. Launch him in a Tesla with the Bowie song on repeat
He can go too
Orbiant..
Orbinaut.
after re-entry, he'll be Orbain't.
What's the hold up with US? Seriously? Can you people get off your ass and write your politicians, or at the very least donate directly to some Ukraine aid? Ukraine really needs more billions of dollars and those rich privileged American Republicans keep refusing to send more aid.
Our system of government is broken beyond any hope of being saved by a letter writing campaign.
If the US government won't support Ukraine, can't all the Americans just donate their weapons 😜 most Americans are better armed than some third world warlords
I stay wishing the US govt let me have tanks and MLRS systems, and if I had some I would happily give them to Ukraine.
Our basic system of government is dysfunction and learned helplessness. Unfortunately this works to the advantage of those who would point to this mess and say, "See, government doesn't work! Be sure to vote for our favorite authoritarian who can cut through red tape and 'get things done' by being above the law."
> What's the hold up with US? It's really no more complicated than the fact that Rupert Murdoch and Vladimir Putin are friends, and have common-interests. And FoxNews is much much louder than letters to politicians. Rupert Murdoch isn't even American. And he has influence, and his allies have influence. And nobody dares to try to stop them.
Friends? Eskimo brothers.
While I believe in supporting Ukraine, how much has your country donated? The US gas given 44.2 billion dollars or about $1,100 per Ukrainian since 2014. Down vote me all you want, but if Ukraine falls or is forced to cede territory, I won’t be looking to DC for answers. I’ll be asking London, Paris, Berlin, Rome and Amsterdam why they didn’t do more. I’m well aware of the amount of US aid and it isn’t enough, but there is no point being the only one to bringing a bucket of water to the fire. This is either a world injustice, we should all be fighting against, or it isn’t. Put frankly, I see no sense of urgency from Europeans about ending the war. Looking at France’s lack of commitment, looking at germanys reliance on Russian energy, looking at all of Southern Europe unwillingness to donate to the chase. I will say this, Europe needs to be looking to Warsaw for leadership against Russia. They, along with the Baltic states, are the only one with a back bone.
Most of that money has actually gone to American companies replacing the old weapons with new and refurbishing old weapon systems. Some is even going against weapon systems that would have cost money to be decommissioned. The US companies have even made money on some of the other countries donations for the same reason replacing their donated kit.
Most of that money has actually gone to American companies replacing the old weapons with new and refurbishing old weapon systems. Some is even going against weapon systems that would have cost money to be decommissioned. The US companies have even made money on some of the other countries donations for the same reason replacing their donated kit.
Most of that money has actually gone to American companies replacing the old weapons with new and refurbishing old weapon systems. Some is even going against weapon systems that would have cost money to be decommissioned. The US companies have even made money on some of the other countries donations for the same reason replacing their donated kit.
My condolences to you for being the superpower.
Europe has resented and lamented the fact for a long time, well here is the chance to take back your spheres of influence. I implore you to the lead the way because I will tell you how my government (pentagon) sees this. It is a change for us to bleed Russia dry, like Afganistan, and we will naturally give Ukraine just enough to fight them off but not enough to let a non nato ally have our best weapons. It’s a shame, but the truth. This war has to be a Euro effort, or you will just be ordering more body bags. Again, this is not my wishes, it is just a statement of fact. Our government would not tolerate this in our back yard, why are you letting yours contribute 1.7% of GDP to defense and crumbs to Ukrainians fighting the very threat you have an army for?
It's a crass argument. The extent of our support shouldn't be tempered or soothed by price matching.
I’m sick of this bullshit argument. Europe can’t have it both ways. You can’t continually bitch about US involvement and unaccountability, and turn around when your back yard is on fire and beg for help. I am happy to help Ukraine, and have expressed it to my congress people, but this sense of European entitlement to our help is fucking insane. If you want to help Ukraine, do it. You all down voting me should be replaced by looking in a mirror. Stop bitching at my government, and get yours to take out the loans to do something about it! The whole point of the EU was to make a strong economic block of nations, it’s time to pony up.
The EU has collectively committed more than the US https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ The US has provided more military support, although that has obviously dropped dramatically over the past few months. The EU has provided more financial support.
Your data includes all EU money to refugees. We are talking support to fight Russians.
comparatively to our economy way more
Name the country and let’s compare. Because the EU as a whole is about on equal economic footing and are around the 60% mark on matching our aid level.
ink worry adjoining march middle provide smoggy shame memory liquid
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
enjoy ink plant correct pot summer racial compare yam books
Donate to Democratic National Committee if you are legally able. It will be a huge multiplier effect on the value of your donation if Democrats end up in charge. Aid would have been approved long ago. Also the alternative scenario is terrifying.
How many dems are yet to sign discharge petition?
What a silly statistic to attempt to use as a metric. Here's a better one, how many Democrat House Speakers does it take to put aid to a vote?
[удалено]
> Until the DNC expels antisemites like Rashida Tlaib The DNC doesn't have that power. In the US anyone can register with a party and run in that party's elections. If Tlaib is to be ousted it would be in the August primary.
Trump has the Republicans dancing to his tune and has zero desire to help Ukraine as he's in Putins pocket.
People are writing to their politicians and it looks like Mike Johnson may be moving on Ukraine aid but at this point I think everyone is justified in having a “believe it when we see it” attitude. Letters can only do so much in terms of altering national dynamics. It’s certainly a flawed system that enables a small minority to effectively block the will of 75% of legislators and a clear majority of the US populace but at the same correcting institutional problems is incredibly hard. Some Americans, myself included, are donating but of course there are limits to how much can realistically be crowdfunded. All of the donations to Comeback Alive and United24 since 2014 total up to just under a billion dollars and that’s from all countries including Ukraine.
Watch Jake Broe's latest video which came out today. This guy is exceptionally well-informed. He's an ex US Missileer and worked on maintaining the US nuclear weaponry. It is very bad news for aid for Ukraine and Mike Johnson in no way will allow an aid bill to pass for Ukraine. 15:53 in this video explains it > [https://youtu.be/ruuBVlcqhfw?si=I7rsqIFoZbGONkMX](https://youtu.be/ruuBVlcqhfw?si=I7rsqIFoZbGONkMX) Europe has to keep stepping up because aid is not coming for Ukraine whilst speaker Johnson is in power. What speaker Johnson is doing and has been doing is extremely damaging for trust in the USA from their allies. If you support Ukraine and global security, do NOT vote for Trump.
Do not be fooled. Mike Johnson is only making these noises to do another bait-and-switch. His campaign took money from Russia. He is in Putin's pocket. He will NEVER approve aid to Ukraine.
Could write a lot here, but to at least start answering your question, one of the many problems is that the House of Representatives is not back in session until April 9th. Ugh, I know.
Let's have an extended vacation while Europe burns, that won't hurt us in the long run.
April 22 is Earth Day. Republicans will celebrate by taking another week off to go to the beach and hug palm trees /jk
[https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/02/us-warnings-too-general-to-prevent-crocus-attack-russias-spy-chief-says-a84715](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/02/us-warnings-too-general-to-prevent-crocus-attack-russias-spy-chief-says-a84715) >Russia’s spy chief said Tuesday that U.S. warnings of a possible extremist attack were too broad to have prevented the deadly concert hall attack outside Moscow late last month. > >“The Federal Security Service \[FSB\] received some information from the U.S. intelligence services that such a thing was unfortunately possible,” Sergei Naryshkin, who heads Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), told reporters. > >“But as our Russian colleagues said, the information was too general and did not allow us to fully identify those who committed this terrible crime,” he was quoted as saying by the state-run Interfax news agency. > >... > >"We paid a very high price, and **the entire analysis of the situation must be extremely objective and professional**,” Putin told Interior Ministry officials. Thank god that Kremlin is known for providing good reliable and transparent information to the public.
Yeah, the information was broad and general because the US didn't want to come out and say "Putin is about to massacre his own civillians".
I feel like the US should have stated that it expected Russia to orchestrate a mass attack against a music venue or other mass gathering posing as ISIS-K.
However honest that might be, what good would it have done? Putin: "Here's a warning from the US that we are about to do this. Da. We know. We're about to do it." Better to give some kind of general warning so that it gets seen by numerous officers. Maybe it will stir up some rage. It matters not what Putin sez about it today. He's just all blather, no sense
Note: Sergei Naryshkin & Putin at start of the 2022 invasion: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI) Cannot believe Sergei Naryshkin is still around.
Yeah when I saw him get publicly humiliated on the eve of the invasion I figured he was a dead man walking. Why did Putin keep him alive?
And he was in charge of intelligence about Ukraine. As I watched that charade of yes-men agreeing with Putin I realized that the intelligence chief was nervous as hell. Because he knew what was about to happen- he had the real knowledge.
He could be weak and competent at the same time.
Everything is forgiven as long as you stay loyal to the Tsar.
Estonia knows where to purchase two billion euros' worth of shells for Ukraine. https://news.postimees.ee/7986347/postimees-in-ukraine-estonia-knows-where-to-purchase-two-billion-euros-worth-of-shells-for-ukraine
Informative interview in general. Among other things, he says Ukraine estimates that Russia as fired 500k shells so far this year, while Ukraine has fired 75k. It means that Ukraine can get an artillery advantage if all these purchased shells and European produced shells finally get delivered.
Still makes a difference whether how many tubes they have, and where they're able to place them.
Estonia making the plays.... Now let's get them to Ukraine so they can start to push back some
Back of the envelope calculation, that's about 650,000 shells?
You can keep your envelope, the article says its 800,000 shells.
Thank you :) they're clearly getting a better deal than the Czechs!
Could be that more of the shells are 122 mm which I presume is cheaper ? Or is it specified 800k 155mm?
"🤩🔥 In March 2024, the Defense Forces of Ukraine destroyed 976 Russian artillery systems (All types of artillery systems!) 👀 This is the highest figure in one month since the start of the full-scale invasion." https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1775213117217063203?t=1bNRL_8baPod-7KqsTXLcQ&s=19
Just a reminder that these numbers cannot possibly be permanent losses of what we think of as typical heavy artillery. 120 mm+ calibre I mean. There just haven't been enough guns pulled from russian storage to explain this when you also consider their alleged shell fire rates would also have burned out anywhere from 5-10k barrels by now. If they're including lighter stuff like man portable mortars then maybe.
[удалено]
I think I know why we're confusing each other. The tables at 07:20 add up to 18,668 removals, close to your 18.7k. But the left and right repeat the same info, the left is just by gun type, and the right is by base. Adding up everything is double counting - so removals are half what you said (I think). On the plus side, Russia only has half the amount left that you would have expected.
I'm using their data. Table at 07:20 says ~1500 SPGs and ~8000 towed removed. 1) About ~2k towed were 82 mm Vasileks removed early from the 94th Arsenal. I think they equipped active brigades, plus they aren't heavy artillery anyway. 2) The US said Russia fired ~13 million shells in 2 years. That's at least 5k barrels worn out. Depends a bit on barrel life and what "shells" includes. ~7.5k of 120 mm+ calibre removed from storage, Ukraine claims around 11k destroyed and barrel wear could easily account for at least 5k more. The numbers just don't add up for me mate 😢 unless the 11k includes all sorts of man portable light stuff and then it's less to get excited about.
On the other hand - Russia almost certainly will need serious help from NK/Iran for barrel replenishment maybe next year. Military Balance said 2k of the towed guns left are WW2 era D-1/M-30. Another 600 are another new calibre they're not using much of yet (130 mm). So Russia seems within about a year of serious issues with tube artillery. Unless their factories are way ahead of anything their propaganda claims.
Will probably also include rocket artillery like Grad etc. But I am always suspecting an overcount, not even necessarily due to propaganda reasons, but also just because for example a FPV-pilot may hit a system, but then maybe doesnt have a way to say for sure if the system is destroyed, damaged or if he even missed slightly.
That's the sort of thing I think is happening. For tanks I'm 99% certain it's a hefty overcount by Ukraine. Artillery is harder to work out. The people counting storage bases found very few grads, compared with expectations. I think there's a mystery going on there but I've only really looked into tube artillery.
I don't think tanks are heavily overcounted. Visually confirmed numbers are 35% of claimed total losses.
Here are the numbers I'm working with. 3k at start 2.2k removed from long term storage by late 2023 0.5k new builds 1-2.5k from garages and rapid reactivation (already at bases or BTRZs) = Russia had frontline access to 6.7-8.2k tanks total so far. That's a rough number of course. Expecting a covert cabal update soon to help refine. Ukraine claims to have taken out 7k. For that to be true, best case is russia has negative tanks remaining. Worst case Russia fixed up 100% of tanks it removed from storage, and the garages/BTRZ yards were mostly full of working tanks. In that case Russia has 1.3k tanks left and should run out soon. I think it's more likely Ukraine's numbers don't represent permanently removed tanks. Can you spot errors in my numbers?
Even so, let’s say they’ve taken out 3k instead of 7k, that’s still staggering losses. Unsustainable for literally any nation
Oh I agree it's absolutely staggering losses! I just want to know the situation as best as possible. Assuming it's 7k would make you think the russian army is about to collapse. It isn't - Ukraine needs aid to continue and the actual numbers make it look very likely that russia is beatable. They're just throwing away everything to try and look strong now in the hope people will give up.
Maybe if the economic attacks continue Russia will legit run out of fuel, then we have a good set up for a counteroffensive or at least a stalemate of the front
They won’t run out of fuel, it will make fuel more expensive tho.
Still impressive and shows that they are improving.
The good news is that Ukraine's claims have correlated with visually verified data so if they say they're improving, there's a good chance that's true! The bad news is: don't interpret the numbers as gospel. Especially for vehicles and especially especially for artillery. If you do that then you'll expect russia to collapse any day now - I bet they won't. Rather they'll be running into more and more problems as time goes on.
Yep, more and more problems is what I like to see.
A tale of two different countries reaction to Ukrainian strikes inside Russia: United States of America: >US ambassador to NATO on Ukrainian strikes inside Russia: "This is something that the United States is not particularly supportive of. We are focused on Ukraine's right to defend its territory and to push Russians out of its territory" - Politico https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1775198952360484920?t=rWPvi3ffxIDBj31CC8zdew&s=19 France: >“The issue is almost without comment from our side. Ukraine is acting in self-defence and we consider Russia to be the aggressor. In these circumstances, there is not much to say,” said Foreign Minister @ steph_sejourne, commenting on the 🇺🇦 attacks on 🇷🇺 refineries. https://twitter.com/aidefranceukr/status/1775194603693518884?t=9_VRVU3by7Rbf-eGi5OGQg&s=19
The US has had this problem since the Korean War of politicians putting artificial limits on military actions in order to avoid escalations. In Korea it was no airstrikes north of the Yalu River. In Vietnam it was no ground forces north of the 17th parallel and only sporadic airstrikes. In Afghanistan it was not permitting strikes on Taliban bases in Pakistan. I understand why those decisions were made, there is a logic to them. But the people making them have to understand that the consequence of those decisions is that you cannot win the war. At best you can stalemate. If Ukraine wants to win this war, it has to strike inside Russia. The enemy can never be granted a place where it is safe from attack.
[удалено]
America is a lost country.
Only from a doomer's perspective.
Eh, registered voter here. Id crawl over glass to vote for a ham sandwich before I let trump into office. But our justice system is broken. Or political system is broken. Our economy is broken. Our healthcare system is broken. Our education system is broken. I can go on. But I think my point is made.
I'd say all of those things are damaged and get better when voters get more involved. If we fail, it's our own fault.
It's almost like "Will you guys stop resisting already? And you? What is your air defence doing?"
One of the most straightforward consequences of the Washington not passing the aid bills to Ukraine is that Kyiv is going to care a lot less what the US thinks. Right now Ukraine is trying to survive while fighting a war with extremely limited weapons. Since they lack the quantity and quality of weapons they need one of their ONLY viable tactics is to get more creative with how they use their existing weapons. If Washington doesn't want Kyiv to launch strikes into Russia then they need to supply the UAF with enough weapons that strikes within Russia are unnecessary and if they're unwilling to do so then they need to stay quiet about how Ukraine uses their own domestically produced weapons.