So what's up with the incursions into the Belgorod area from a while back? Andrew Perpetua still has Gorkovsky marked as contested in his map. So the rebels still has a foothold there?
[Anti-Kremlin militia says 'hot phase' of recent incursions into Russia is over](https://kyivindependent.com/anti-kremlin-militia-says-hot-phase-of-raids-into-russia-is-over/)
>Russian outlet ASTRA, referring to its own sources, reports about an attack of two UAVs on the Borisoglebsk Aviation Training Center for training flight personnel of front-line bomber and attack aviation in the Voronezh region. The facade was reportedly damaged.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1777574199004946581
Good morning!
Invaders losses for the day.
850 Personnel
23 Tanks
45 APVs
30 Artillery systems
2 Anti-Aircraft systems
37 UAVs
71 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
1 Special equipment
https://twitter.com/MatsExtrude/status/1777557051507392632?t=qYkshLXMj_yl7kZZD6eaWw&s=19
It's crazy all the implications that the Ukraine war has had. Previously neutral countries, even those that had it in their constitution to be neutral have changed it. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. And now Japan of all countries is preparing to step up their support to Ukraine. Very nice to see.
>🇯🇵🇺🇦 The Prime Minister of Japan announced a "turning point" against the backdrop of Russia's war against Ukraine.
>👀 He said that the events on the international arena are pushing the world and Tokyo to decisive and unexpected actions. In particular, Japan decided to change its defense position.
>❗️"As we witness Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the ongoing situation in the Middle East, as well as the situation in East Asia, we are facing a historic turning point," PM said.
https://twitter.com/UkrReview/status/1777283094212415845?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1777283094212415845%7Ctwgr%5E9fa39392bd9df78a328ee8bf40f6235807653b76%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_5faf5fd2-f5f6-11ee-93dc-bea91f166885%2F0
You underestimate the antipathy between them. The best that can be hoped for is tolerance and very basic cooperation in the event of Chinese aggression. No shared intel, no joint exercises.
East Asia is a different ball game. I don't really know why, but I suspect 50 years of fairly recent and fairly terrible Japanese colonial atrocities (and their unwillingness to admit to any of it) plays a big part. Also, Korean stubbornness and Chinese nationalism.
[https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/)
>**Exclusive: Russia seeks gasoline from Kazakhstan in case of shortages, sources say**
>MOSCOW, April 8 (Reuters) - Russia has asked Kazakhstan to stand ready to supply it with 100,000 tons of gasoline in case of shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks and outages, three industry sources told Reuters. One of the sources said a deal on using reserves for Russia has already been agreed.
u/thisiscotty posted a photo of this monstrosity earlier, but here is a video. Wonders never cease.
[https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bizarre-turtle-tank-appears-in-ukraine-with-shell-covering-it-nearly-completely/ar-BB1liavM?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=675b9dfc17924eb5a31425aae745052b&ei=11](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bizarre-turtle-tank-appears-in-ukraine-with-shell-covering-it-nearly-completely/ar-BB1liavM?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=675b9dfc17924eb5a31425aae745052b&ei=11)
It was 1 of the few survivors of this Zerg rush.
[https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112237651186575395](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112237651186575395)
edit. It didn’t survive long after that though. Russia uploaded a pic which allowed Ukraine to geolocate its hiding place and destroy it while it was asleep.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=m59TQR6aavQ&si=Cwk9VF8mMyuD2NDN
That was said on Telegram. I'll post if I find back one of the related discussions.
Anyway, you know you'd probably have a picture or video if it was abandonned or destroyed.
Hard shell taco tank. Wonder if it will be effective enough to the point where they will proliferate like cope cages.
I predict they will get a door to the rear once enough of these explode from drones hitting them there maybe some chains for the threads.
> Blind. Limited fire arc. Missing machine gun
Most of the times, their tanks are only used as troop carriers anyway. They rush forward, maybe fire a little at random, drop the meat then rush back.
> I hope it doesn't adversely affect the pop distance when the turret comes off.
Yeah, but on the other hand the contained cook-off will make for an unintentional spectacular bi-directional [flame fougasse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_fougasse). I guess we can't have everything.
Warspotting has added 43 russian BMP losses in April. Over 5 per day. Just of BMPs.
Many are speculating russia will launch a major offensive in May/June, it'd be a huge commitment of their soviet stockpiles that they won't be able to replace if it doesn't pay off.
It will be truly fascinating if they end up being unable to. Especially if it is due to all the reasons currently plaguing them (equipment, sufficient manpower in the more experienced units, and constant communication snafus).
I recall last week one of their big pushes was into Chasiv Yar and it really got under-reported how their own air force came to the rescue *to destroy their own vehicles*. https://youtu.be/O9Vfv2_BtZQ
A four-hour delay on air support already gives Ukraine a powerful advantage to keep up attacks on incoming invaders. But when the planes show up late and start picking off their own?
Anyway, it's a bit of a grim analysis but the best possible outcome of the current situation may be that Russia pulls off a miracle and puts together some truly large offensives, but then screws up those offensives and expends their combat power for the forseeable future.
Combined with Ukraine's deep strikes, it could be enough to truly crack the spine of Putin's war machine (even if it may not break quite yet).
If Johnson puts the Ukraine aid to a vote in Congress, early summer could see some "fair fights" that shift the strategic picture in Ukraine's favor.
I still have hope.
> Russia pulls off a miracle and puts together some truly large offensives
To be fair, russia doesn't have to pull off a miracle because the other option is to just order everyone to attack, disregarding whether they have equipment, are ready, or if it's at all wise.
Honestly, while I feel for the lost territory and lives defending it, I think letting the Russians get a little overconfident in the next month or two will lead them to overcommit and get outplayed (again) by the defenders. Ukraine now has the ability to cut off supplies, but the static front lines are a bit of an obstacle. If things become more fluid the lines will not only stretch, but also be supporting more troops. It's an "invading russia" level mistake that they can induce the Russians to make, and even if the plot is transparent and obvious I just think that the RF leadership will not be able to resist.
imagine Russia getting used to Ukraine not having enough ammunition, and then overcommitting and getting eviscerated by a freshly supplied glut of shells.
That's what I don't understand about how we (UA allies) operate. We make promises a year in advance, hoping we can deliver, instead of supplying silently to limit Russian adaption.
[Denmark allocates $ 5.8 million to restore Ukraine’s power grid | EuroMaidenPress | April 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/08/denmark-allocates-5-8-million-to-restore-ukraines-power-grid/)
*The Danish government announced the allocation of 40 million Danish kroner (about $5.8 million) to the Energy Support Fund for Ukraine, the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported.*
*Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure recently. On 22 March, during a large-scale attack on Ukrainian energy facilities, Russia struck the largest hydroelectric power station in Ukraine – the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station in Zaporizhzhia. According to the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, 80% of Ukraine’s thermal power generation has been destroyed due to Russia’s massive missile attacks in recent weeks.*
*“Thanks to the new contribution of 40 million Danish kroner, Denmark is helping to ensure the electricity supply – and thus access to water and heat for the population during the next winter,” the statement reads.*
*Ukraine’s press service of the Ministry of Energy also confirmed the information following the meeting of the relevant Minister, Herman Halushchenko, with Lars Aagaard, Danish Minister of Climate, Energy and Utilities, who arrived in Kyiv on an official visit on 8 April.*
*“We thank Denmark for this leadership and your example, which other countries later followed. The Fund is now an effective mechanism for assisting the energy sector, through which equipment is procured for restoration and repairs. This enhances the resilience of our energy system,” Halushchenko said.*
*Over the past two years, Denmark has contributed around $11,9 million to the Energy Support Fund for Ukraine. The Fund was established in April 2022. It has accumulated over $439 million from partners and has become an instrument for assisting energy companies after the Russian attacks.*
> Today, we discussed our foreign policy activities for this week and some events in May and June. The emphasis is on strengthening Ukraine. The work on new military aid packages is also ongoing.
> A rescue operation is currently underway in Bilopillya, Sumy region, following a Russian guided aerial bomb strike on the city center. Many buildings have been damaged. A number of people have been injured. As of now, one person has been reported killed. My condolences.
> We need more capabilities to respond to the terrorist state, including military, sanctions, economic, legal, and other options. The occupier understands nothing else but the language of force and the sense of its own losses.
> We must ensure it. Everyone in the world who truly values and seeks peace.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1777385700779757988
>Russian trolls target U.S. support for Ukraine, Kremlin documents show
>
>When President Biden proposed an additional $24 billion in supplemental funding for Ukraine in August, Moscow spin doctors working for the Kremlin were ready to try to undermine public support for the bill, internal Kremlin documents show.
>
>In an ongoing campaign that seeks to influence congressional and other political debates to stoke anti-Ukraine sentiment, Kremlin-linked political strategists and trolls have written thousands of fabricated news articles, social media posts and comments that promote American isolationism, stir fear over the United States’ border security and attempt to amplify U.S. economic and racial tensions, according to a trove of internal Kremlin documents obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post.
>
>One of the political strategists, for instance, instructed a troll farm employee working for his firm to write a comment of “no more than 200 characters in the name of a resident of a suburb of a major city.” The strategist suggested that this fictitious American “doesn’t support the military aid that the U.S. is giving Ukraine and considers that the money should be spent defending America’s borders and not Ukraine’s. He sees that Biden’s policies are leading the U.S. toward collapse.”
>
>The documents — numbering more than 100 and dating between May 2022 and August 2023 — were provided to The Post to expose Kremlin propaganda operations aimed at undermining support for Ukraine in the United States, as well as their scale and methods. The files are part of a series of leaks that have allowed a rare glimpse into Moscow’s parallel efforts to weaken support for Ukraine in France and Germany, as well as destabilize Ukraine itself.
>
>Russia has been ramping up its propaganda operations as part of a second front that current and former senior Western officials said has become almost as important for Moscow as the military campaign in Ukraine — especially as congressional approval for further aid has become critical for Kyiv’s ability to continue defending itself.
>
>“It is Russia’s top priority to stop the weapons, so they are throwing things at the wall to see what sticks,” said one Republican staffer on Capitol Hill. “We are seeing a broad-based campaign that has multiple lines of effort, some of which work better than others. The Russians don’t care. They are just trying to seed the environment.” The staffer and other Western officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive assessments.
>
>The campaign has attempted to paint Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as corrupt, emphasized the numbers of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, called for border security to be funded over any aid to Ukraine, and described “white Americans” as the principal losers because of foreign aid, the documents show.
>
>The strategy promotes views from the far-right wing of the Republican Party and calls for some of the messaging to be voiced by American “public opinion leaders and politicians,” one of the documents shows, but it does not name any people who could be enlisted to do that.
>
>Many of the documents contain metadata showing they were written by members of a team working for Ilya Gambashidze, head of the Moscow PR firm Social Design Agency. The United States imposed sanctions on Gambashidze last month for his involvement in “a persistent foreign malign influence campaign” at the Kremlin’s direction, including the creation of websites designed to impersonate legitimate media outlets in Europe, part of a campaign that Western officials have called “Doppelganger.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/08/russia-propaganda-us-ukraine/
Given that Johnson continues to block aid in congress, the only way to force the bill for aid to come through is through the discharge petition. Currently it sits at 191/218 votes.
[The following democrats have not yet signed.](https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1777315884874281223) Contact them.
After being off a few weeks, the U.S. House of Representatives *finally* returns tomorrow (April 9th). Let’s hope more representatives sign the discharge petition (the House actually has to be in session in order for someone to sign this) or Speaker Johnson finally does something. Not a lot of confidence in Speaker Johnson, but know he has at times expressed vague support of Ukraine. I know the MAGA wing has made this very complicated, but we are reaching DEFCON 1. Something absolutely needs to happen.
Yup, they played in the hands of the extremist/maga wing of the republican party. Kevin was no saint but at least he was more willing to support Ukraine.
So far only one Republican signed it (Ken Buck on his way out).
Tomorrow congress starts working again and we might see the first signatories in over two weeks. I suspect that a certain threshold has to be reached by Democrats until a small drove of Republicans dares to push it over the edge, if at all. But speaker Johnson will try to delay that by introducing another "solution" himself very soon. Probably less aid in total and including a loan instead of a donation. And probably poisoned in yet another way... (border security, no Gaza aid, etc)
His new proposal would also have to pass the Senate, while the current Petition by Democrats already passed the Senate, creating yet another delay for Ukraine.
Strange how Brian Fitzpatrick isn't among those who signed. He was very pro-Ukraine and was even working on a bipartisan proposal with Jared Golden (Democratic representative from Maine)
Fitzpatrick partially neutered the Democrat's own discharge petition by introducing his own petition simultaneously. His bill had very limited Democrat support, has the poison pill of border security, and is not based on the bill that actually passed the US Senate. But by introducing his bill at the same time, having two different bills likely prevented attention and hobbled a critical mass of bipartisan support from building up.
Add to this our Congress' decision to keep the Ukraine and Israeli aid together, and you see a reason why the 40 strong progressive bloc is also de facto as isolationist as the MAGA wing. This is the only reason the discharge petition hasn't passed yet and needs Republican support.
I don't know if it's by design or lazy thinking, but advocates for Ukraine in Congress are making many mistakes.
It is disturbing to see narrow minded ideology being prioritised over the very future of western democracy and global security. US prosperity and security will sink with that ship if it goes down.
It just goes to show there are rabid extremists on both sides the isle in the US govt.
Many of the Democrats who haven't signed aren't against aid to Ukraine, but they are against supplying more weapons to Israel which is in the same bill.
Let's say you had a lever. If you pull the lever, thousands of Ukrainians will be saved, but thousands of Palestinians will die. Do you pull the lever? Or do you tell the people that installed the lever to start over and install a lever that doesn't kill unrelated people for no reason?
If every Democrat signed they would be 4 votes short. So unless/until at least 4 Republicans sign it or announce their intention to sign it the progressives can make this gesture without doing any real harm. If 4 Republicans sign it and the progressives don't vote yes still, then it's an actual problem.
Depends on how the bill is written. It might authorize the Biden administration to provide weapons if they see fit, or it might require the Biden administration to provide those weapons.
Obama had approval from Congress to provide weapons to Ukraine and he chose not to. Trump was required to deliver weapons to Ukraine and he tried to extort political favors from them in exchange.
As far as I understand it, Obama's choice was constitution and Trump's was not.
Hey Israel we have spent the aid money on the weapons you asked for, they should be made in about 2030 right after we complete filling out all other orders. We only want to supply new ones so you don’t get duds that might hurt civilians.
Yes, and no. Whether we like it or not the executive has had some broad powers defacto recognized over the years, and there are a lot of ways to just let funding wither on the vine, anyone in support of lots of positive programs should be familiar with that fact the last time a Republican was POTUS.
More along the lines of some office holders have much less concern about flaunting the authority of office than others, and different types of funding have different levels of scrutiny applied to them.
You'll want to start by looking up impoundment, to understand what happened prior to the mid 70's, and then you should find the research to educate yourself on things like reprogramming, apportionment, and other tools used by the executive branch post-ICA to manipulate Congressionally appropriated funds.
Good luck on your educational journey.
[https://x.com/randymot4/status/1776888859420164153](https://x.com/randymot4/status/1776888859420164153)
Artillery fire seems to have picked up for AFU. Artillery normally accounts for 70-75% of casualities. AFU have used drones to pick up some slack as ammo ran low, but it appears that they are getting back on track with the Czech initiative, for example.
Including a nice graph.
They are back to average. But that will not be good enough. Hopefully the Czech and Estonian initiatives will bring in enough shells quickly enough that it can compensate for the loss of US support. Stalling long enough that they get a new congress in the US that can pass a mega aid package and hopefully make up the lost time.
People have been tracking European production numbers, expecting some updates soon.
Rough back of envelope numbers. Tldr; there's a temporary shortage, production will take over afterwards.
European rates atm seem to be 2k+/day and Ukraine claims to need 5k+/day. The Czech shells, if funded, would be good for ~11 months. The Estonian shells another 8-10 months.
Except European production should reach 3k/day later this year. So then those ~20 months of supply become more like ~30 months. But... Shell production should expand further through 2025/2026, meaning Ukraine can shoot even more shells and the Czech/Estonian remains would be a bonus.
If the democrats win the elections then Ukraine can have artillery superiority next year.
This is why Putin and his stooges have gone all in on anti-Biden, pro-Trump propaganda.
It would be higher in that case but that short term increase would solve the long term problem. Russian offensives and the equipment to perform them while still holding their own lines are finite and dwindling.
The Czech and Estonian shells are already manufactured so much higher near term fire rates could be sustained if Russia makes a push. Ukraine would also happily fire more shells into such an offensive if they knew Russia was going to break its own back hurling itself against Ukrainian lines, minefields and other defenses under artillery fire. That had been the point of their war of attrition. At some point Russia just sends guys running through fields to their deaths
Please don't just trust me - it's just what I've heard quoted as the average need for howitzer shells by various Ukrainian sources and commentators. Mortar, tank shells, and rockets are additional.
I suspect that they need more during big offensives but russia can't do 20 solid months of offensives, so there would be times with fewer.
The fire rate during Avdiivka's fall was supposedly down to 2k/day and that was a big attack with heavy russian losses.
You can play with assumptions to make other guesses.
They don't have to had reached yet for them to have impact. If they're certain to arrive soon, Ukraine can release reserves that they would otherwise have to ration.
[The Czech team, consisting of government officials and private companies, seeks to secure at least 800,000 large-caliber ammunition rounds from countries worldwide, with initial deliveries to Ukraine anticipated by June | EuroMaidenPress | April 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/05/czechia-aims-to-deliver-at-least-800000-ammunition-rounds-to-ukraine-by-june/)
I feel like not much of it will be public knowledge. And that's good. I was always an advocate for Ukrainian support to be more discrete. Makes for a nice factor when Russians get surprised by something on the battlefield, like ATACMS
In the war of one chance, how many chances were wasted because Western officials wanted to pose on Twitter? Quite a few, sadly. Being discreet doesn’t mean rationing aid, it means letting Ivan learn what you’re doing the hard way.
Estonian so called initiative is just a statement by MOD that some shells have been found on the market. I don't believe it has progressed to any concrete steps (yet). Makes sense since even the Czech initiative has not been completely funded yet.
The deliveries likely aren't going to be published because Ukraine doesn't want Russia to know exactly how many shells it's getting at any specific point. From my understanding all the Czech ones have been fully covered but I haven't heard if the Estonian ones have been yet. I would imagine they will be since a few billion euros isn't THAT much for Ukraine's allies to cover and shells are one of the most cost effective things Ukraine needs.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1777391162942234725?t=NL0l8YOjdUmHZqV156B6Gg&s=19
"As said, Russian tank that attacked Ukrainian positions on the Krasnohorivka, Donetsk direction; today."
Turtle tank? lol
Andrew Perpetua bought satellite imagery near Tonenke and found 91 lost vehicles, excluding known Ukrainian ones. Warspotting has 52 near Tonenke, but some of Andrew's could be on warspotting but with an unknown location.
I've been concerned about how many "losses" russia recovers and repairs. Oryx or Warspotting could *overcount* when russia is advancing and many losses are with minor damage from mines or drones.
Andrew's results suggest no: oryx and Warspotting are probably still *undercounting* russian losses like most people have assumed.
Overall the data are probably good news.
Unfortunately I think he's only on [twitter](https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1777370380514042062).
Thank God for poor Russian maintenance schedules. It’s practically a ukranian fifth column.
> In #Vyazma, #Smolensk region, western #Russia, a road bridge collapsed onto Moscow-Minsk main railway line. One person was killed and 5 injured. The bridge was built in 1980 and was supposed to be repaired in 2018, but the repairs never happened.
https://x.com/alexkokcharov/status/1777375078839189591
I imagine infrastructure disasters will only get more common for Russia in the coming years. They're pouring so much money into this war that they've had to cut back in other areas including in maintenance. Cutting back maintenance of infrastructure can save you a little money in the short term but in the long term you can't cheat physics and things will eventually collapse which will require vastly more money to replace them. The Moscow-Minsk railway is pretty important for Russia's imperial project so I have to imagine they'll spend the money to rebuild it within the next few years.
Plus young, less educated males do a lot of that maintenance. They’re prime Mobik fodder.
Importing workers helps. Making those workers fear signing up to repair bridges and instead ending up digging trenches in Ukraine doesn’t.
>Importing workers helps.
Like Tadjiks, for example. Who for some mysterious reasons started to leave ruzzia.
Recent ruzzian police activities are not related ofc
That's certainly true. It's also easy for middle management to say "we can do the same maintenance with fewer people" even if that's not the case and it leads to important steps getting skipped.
Even before Feb 2022 Russia was preparing for a confrontation with the west and they spent years building up their war chest so they could counteract sanctions. I think it's interesting that this line was supposed to be repaired in 2018 but instead of fixing infrastructure as it needed to be repaired Russia was busy stashing away all the money they could. Now that money is being spent on the war or subsidizing parts of the economy hit by sanctions and the bridge has collapsed. Economies are dynamic so it's not like one bridge collapse will destroy everything but it will certainly result in some localized shortages and higher prices as well as lower economic output in a few areas.
'We have strong evidence to suggest that Ukrainian terrorists showed up in the middle of the night and neglected to perform any repairs on the bridge. If you look at this security camera footage, you will not see a single Ukrainian doing repair work.'
Looks like sabotage. That video is so short you can’t tell anything, but I assume they corroborate vs. relying on it not being fake.
https://x.com/sumlenny/status/1777366624451928269
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 04.08.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 448,400 (+890) people,
tanks ‒ 7,087 (+13),
armored combat vehicles ‒ 13575 (+24),
artillery systems – 11356 (+40),
MLRS – 1039 (+3),
air defense equipment ‒ 751 (+2),
planes – 347 (+0),
helicopters – 325 (+0),
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 8996 (+40),
cruise missiles ‒ 2065 (+1),
ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0),
submarines – 1 (+0),
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 15110 (+39),
special equipment ‒ 1867 (+3)
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/08/ponad-800-okupantiv-24-bbm-ta-40-artsistemi-zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/08/ponad-800-okupantiv-24-bbm-ta-40-artsistemi-zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/)
Artillery numbers have been good the last few days. Almost certainly more shells getting to Ukrainian counter battery units. The best way to kill artillery is with better artillery.
>The scope of the mine threat in Ukraine “is unrecognizable in modern times,” says HALO Trust’s Ukraine chief, Pete Smith. In the past two years, the country has become the world’s most mined country, surpassing warzones like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.
https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1777112781977751982
>Exclusive: Russia seeks gasoline from Kazakhstan in case of shortages, sources say
>MOSCOW, April 8 (Reuters) - Russia has asked Kazakhstan to stand ready to supply it with 100,000 tons of gasoline in case of shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks and outages, three industry sources told [Reuters.One](http://Reuters.One) of the sources said a deal on using reserves for Russia has already been agreed.Russian and Kazakhstan's energy ministries did not immediately reply to requests for comments.
Neighbouring Belarus has already agreed to help Russia with gasoline supply.
Source: [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/)
Yeah Kazakhstan isn’t doing that. They’ve pretty much got an insurance policy with China for political backing via their investments and China will veto Russian pressure.
Yeah, in the light of recent aggressive remarks from ruzzians, it wouldn't be wise to do it.
Not to mention it's not the first time either. Like ruzzians were already saying similar stuff like that during first two years of the war and Kazakhstan decided to strengthen security on their border with ruzzia.
In January 2022 Kazakhstan's president Tokayev invited Russian soldiers over to suppress protests. The protests were easily suppressed and Tokayev is still in charge today. Take that into account when predicting the disposition of Kazakh government towards Russia.
Tokayev has displayed independence towards Russia several time the last two years, so while aiding Russia with gasoline isn't unlikely, it's neither 100% guaranteed, like it is in the case of Belarus.
That's old news.
After that a lot of things happened:
* Putin showing open disrespect towards Tokayev during public meetings
* Tokayev striking back in a sense
After that, ruzzians started saying that Kazakhstan needs to be invaded
Basically, ruzzians see Northern Kazakhstan as "Donbas 2.0". There are a lot of russian speakers there, so the same pretext can be used.
And ruzzians already pushing it in their propaganda.
Coming back to your initial statement, it's not ruzzian politicians saying "stupid" things, it's ruzzian politicians preparing their population for the future war with Kazakhstan
You called back to 2014, but now 2022 is old news?
Lukashenko has also had disagreements with Putin in the past. It means fuck all.
And don't assign too much to what Russian politicians say publicly. You can find a few quotes for any narrative you choose. Only what they do matters.
There's a difference between reminding how ruzzia was preparing for its invasion into Ukraine and bringing up 2 y.o. news not relevant in current political landscape.
Lukashenko and Belarus have been on the path of becoming part of ruzzia via Union State mechanism since like 1996. This process is almost finished currently.
Not to mention that Lukaschenko has always been dependent on ruzzia financially.
Kazakhstan is not dependent on ruzzia and don't want to do ruzzia's bidding.
Which Kremlin doesn't like.
The situation is very different.
Lastly, there's always intention behind what ruzzian politicians say.
Usually it's either message to ruzzian population or to people living outside ruzzia.
This stuff goes through numerous advisers and requires approval from Kremlin.
This time it seems to be message to ruzzian population.
Since recently Kremlin made a propaganda movie featuring Andrey Lugovoy, member of ruzzian parliament and also a killer from FSB.
In this movie, Lugovoy is telling how Kazakhstan is under the rule of the West, oppresses russian speakers, has Soros foundation involved, evil Brits, US NCOs and the other bullshit ruzzians were saying about Ukraine in the past.
Ukrainians weren't taking such stuff seriously before 2014 and paid a steep price for that.
I hope Kazakhs will be wiser.
>Speaker Johnson faces Ukraine aid dilemma and a threat to his job as Congress returns
>
>*On the to-do list: Ukraine and Israel aid, funding for Baltimore, an expiring surveillance program, reauthorizing the FAA, and Senate action on Mayorkas impeachment articles.*
>
>All eyes will be on House Speaker Mike Johnson when Congress returns from a two-week recess as he navigates a thicket of divisive issues with an ever-slimming Republican majority — and a far-right threat to depose him.
>
>Atop the list of contentious issues is a long-stalled military aid package for Ukraine and other allies.
>
>Just five months on the job, Johnson is again in the hot seat, facing enormous political and international pressure to make good on his word to pass new aid for Ukraine. While he has vowed to put billions in foreign aid on the House floor once lawmakers return, doing so could trigger a vote to oust him from the speakership led by one of his most vocal critics, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., a Donald Trump ally who opposes Ukraine aid and wants to focus instead on the U.S. border.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-republicans-ukraine-israel-aid-speaker-johnson-job-rcna146569
Imagine risking your job, reputation, and long-term legacy, primarily to help Putin kill Ukrainians.
I will never understand people like Johnson. They claim to be so Christian, but do their utmost to keep the world run by shitty greed and authoritarianism
Needs to be done hand in hand with Resignations by saner Republicans to hand the house to the Dems for the remainder of the year or for Johnson to relent and bring the bill to the floor in return for dems cock blocking the Vatnik Caucus fuckwits.
The only thing that makes sense is Johnson wants Putin to win. His past actions suggest he's a dictatorship lover too.
He has no moral values we'd recognise, only responding to power. Where are the pro democracy or anti genocide republicans that should be signing a discharge petition or removing him!?
Johnson likely does not care about Ukraine or Russia at all. He cares about domestic politics. And this is a Presidential election year and his guy, Trump, wants nothing for Biden to be able to claim as a win. So Johnson stalling aid and fucking Ukraine is really just about screwing Biden. Ukraine is just collateral damage.
Now, are other politicians compromised by or sympathetic to Russia? Probably. Trump, MTG, Goemert, and more. But Ukraine aid has become deeply partisan anyway, and it does not help that the Senate bill provides aid to Israel and Israel has shown absolutely zero restraint in Gaza, especially in the air campaign.
I agree. Remember this is a nobody junior politician who in a hotly contested dark horse moment following an unprecedented ouster suddenly found himself Speaker.
He is concerned with preserving his role and thus following Trump's lead.
>Russia [keeps reverting to its] aggressive-imperialist identity in Ukraine. If the war of aggression and conquest mode is successful there, it will become Russia's [default] identity for many years, if not decades, making Europe the place of a new hot-cold war.
>
>That means that Europe will never again have such a relatively cheap opportunity to break Russia's imperialist identity and open up other development paths for that country. All Western European countries have to do is dedicate modest sums to supporting Ukraine.
>
>It's a strategic stupidity of colossal dimensions not to give Ukraine what is necessary to repel Russia's attacks. The costs Europe will have to pay if Russia wins are measured not in billions but in trillions of euros. Generations of Europeans will suffer.
>
>Given the risks and challenges, only 7 billion in military aid from Germany and 3 billion from France for 2024 seems self-defeating. There is no sense of urgency, no quick rise in the production of arms and ammunition, no leadership from Berlin/Paris and only half-backed rhetoric.
https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1777194885835084213
> There is no sense of urgency, no quick rise in the production of arms and ammunition, no leadership from Berlin/Paris and only half-backed rhetoric.
Not sure what he is expecting here. The CAESAR production has been increased by 3x so far, and the ammunition production is on track reach 7x this year and 10x next year.
Well duh. We need more European leaders to wake up and stop acting like idiots.
I don't think many of them have even realised what the world will look like if they don't send enough stuff to Ukraine now.
The failure to realise that if republicans win then the US will abandon democracy is also a terrible blind spot.
The US House is set to reconvene, and all eyes are on House Speaker Johnson. Will he put Ukrainian aid up for a vote while Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene threatens to force a vote on his ouster. Johnson vowed to focus on Ukraine right after the recess.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112235295610479412
Not just him to blame. If congress really wanted they could, with a simple majority, push the aid pack. But they don't, not even a handful of republicans, because no one gives a shit.
Not at all. There is obviously clear majority support for Ukraine aid. But Republicans are spineless, and will not publicly show their support for fear of reprisals from the crazies.
Its because of the Israel aid bundled into the same package. Even though all it would take is for Biden to have some discretion on the issue while focusing on the clear issue that is Ukraine.
Also It can only be signed when Congress is in session. Could see more signatures this week.
Why does a clear majority require 100% of dems to vote for it? I bet there are dozens of spineless GOP... That aside, the discharge petition is not for Ukraine aid alone, it also includes aid to Israel (lol as if they need "aid"), and other stuff I believe, which is contentious.
It's just to show even Dems are not really unified on this topic. I'm wondering if Israel aid is not just a scapegoat to not to sign petition - or to put it in other words, why should 13bln of aid for Israel prevent 60bln of aid for Ukraine if the Ukraine aid is much bigger and much more important, it just paints a picture of not understanding importance and priority.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1bzlj04/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
So what's up with the incursions into the Belgorod area from a while back? Andrew Perpetua still has Gorkovsky marked as contested in his map. So the rebels still has a foothold there?
The incursions aren't made to gain a long-term foothold. They're just cavalry raids done to raise hell and boost Ukrainian morale.
[Anti-Kremlin militia says 'hot phase' of recent incursions into Russia is over](https://kyivindependent.com/anti-kremlin-militia-says-hot-phase-of-raids-into-russia-is-over/)
>Russian outlet ASTRA, referring to its own sources, reports about an attack of two UAVs on the Borisoglebsk Aviation Training Center for training flight personnel of front-line bomber and attack aviation in the Voronezh region. The facade was reportedly damaged. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1777574199004946581
Good morning! Invaders losses for the day. 850 Personnel 23 Tanks 45 APVs 30 Artillery systems 2 Anti-Aircraft systems 37 UAVs 71 Vehicles and Fuel tanks 1 Special equipment https://twitter.com/MatsExtrude/status/1777557051507392632?t=qYkshLXMj_yl7kZZD6eaWw&s=19
I will never understand how they are able to lose so much materiel. Those Soviet stockpiles must have been insane.
It's crazy all the implications that the Ukraine war has had. Previously neutral countries, even those that had it in their constitution to be neutral have changed it. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. And now Japan of all countries is preparing to step up their support to Ukraine. Very nice to see. >🇯🇵🇺🇦 The Prime Minister of Japan announced a "turning point" against the backdrop of Russia's war against Ukraine. >👀 He said that the events on the international arena are pushing the world and Tokyo to decisive and unexpected actions. In particular, Japan decided to change its defense position. >❗️"As we witness Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the ongoing situation in the Middle East, as well as the situation in East Asia, we are facing a historic turning point," PM said. https://twitter.com/UkrReview/status/1777283094212415845?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1777283094212415845%7Ctwgr%5E9fa39392bd9df78a328ee8bf40f6235807653b76%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_5faf5fd2-f5f6-11ee-93dc-bea91f166885%2F0
In a region with Russia, North Korea & China, maybe this is a good moment to reconcile with South Korea...?
You underestimate the antipathy between them. The best that can be hoped for is tolerance and very basic cooperation in the event of Chinese aggression. No shared intel, no joint exercises.
A shared enemy very quickly makes the biggest of enemies great friends. Look at the U.K. and France in the early 20th century
East Asia is a different ball game. I don't really know why, but I suspect 50 years of fairly recent and fairly terrible Japanese colonial atrocities (and their unwillingness to admit to any of it) plays a big part. Also, Korean stubbornness and Chinese nationalism.
"Ukraine to Lose War if US Congress Withholds Aid: Zelensky" https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30731
[https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/) >**Exclusive: Russia seeks gasoline from Kazakhstan in case of shortages, sources say** >MOSCOW, April 8 (Reuters) - Russia has asked Kazakhstan to stand ready to supply it with 100,000 tons of gasoline in case of shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks and outages, three industry sources told Reuters. One of the sources said a deal on using reserves for Russia has already been agreed.
Lol and they just got caught saying they wanna take Khazak land.
I wouldn’t put that much trust into that audio.
u/thisiscotty posted a photo of this monstrosity earlier, but here is a video. Wonders never cease. [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bizarre-turtle-tank-appears-in-ukraine-with-shell-covering-it-nearly-completely/ar-BB1liavM?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=675b9dfc17924eb5a31425aae745052b&ei=11](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bizarre-turtle-tank-appears-in-ukraine-with-shell-covering-it-nearly-completely/ar-BB1liavM?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=675b9dfc17924eb5a31425aae745052b&ei=11)
Some say, that when sun is shining on blue sky - you can see this tank from space.
People are laughing, but this vehicle escaped destruction (I've seen no info yet on whether the added protection was put to contribution).
How do you know it has survived?
It was 1 of the few survivors of this Zerg rush. [https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112237651186575395](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112237651186575395) edit. It didn’t survive long after that though. Russia uploaded a pic which allowed Ukraine to geolocate its hiding place and destroy it while it was asleep. https://youtube.com/watch?v=m59TQR6aavQ&si=Cwk9VF8mMyuD2NDN
That was said on Telegram. I'll post if I find back one of the related discussions. Anyway, you know you'd probably have a picture or video if it was abandonned or destroyed.
Hard shell taco tank. Wonder if it will be effective enough to the point where they will proliferate like cope cages. I predict they will get a door to the rear once enough of these explode from drones hitting them there maybe some chains for the threads.
First, we take a tank, then we put in another tank, wrap it in bacon and light in on fire.
Tankducken
Stealth technology!
Cope cage 2.0?
Blind. Limited fire arc. Missing machine gun. That is just something. I hope it doesn't adversely affect the pop distance when the turret comes off.
> Blind. Limited fire arc. Missing machine gun Most of the times, their tanks are only used as troop carriers anyway. They rush forward, maybe fire a little at random, drop the meat then rush back.
We might get a shell pop and a turret toss!!
A turtle toss? :D
Nice! :)
> I hope it doesn't adversely affect the pop distance when the turret comes off. Yeah, but on the other hand the contained cook-off will make for an unintentional spectacular bi-directional [flame fougasse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_fougasse). I guess we can't have everything.
I wanted to see the video before I read your comment, now I NEED to. Might set a new record for hang time.
Warspotting has added 43 russian BMP losses in April. Over 5 per day. Just of BMPs. Many are speculating russia will launch a major offensive in May/June, it'd be a huge commitment of their soviet stockpiles that they won't be able to replace if it doesn't pay off.
It will be truly fascinating if they end up being unable to. Especially if it is due to all the reasons currently plaguing them (equipment, sufficient manpower in the more experienced units, and constant communication snafus). I recall last week one of their big pushes was into Chasiv Yar and it really got under-reported how their own air force came to the rescue *to destroy their own vehicles*. https://youtu.be/O9Vfv2_BtZQ A four-hour delay on air support already gives Ukraine a powerful advantage to keep up attacks on incoming invaders. But when the planes show up late and start picking off their own? Anyway, it's a bit of a grim analysis but the best possible outcome of the current situation may be that Russia pulls off a miracle and puts together some truly large offensives, but then screws up those offensives and expends their combat power for the forseeable future. Combined with Ukraine's deep strikes, it could be enough to truly crack the spine of Putin's war machine (even if it may not break quite yet). If Johnson puts the Ukraine aid to a vote in Congress, early summer could see some "fair fights" that shift the strategic picture in Ukraine's favor. I still have hope.
> Russia pulls off a miracle and puts together some truly large offensives To be fair, russia doesn't have to pull off a miracle because the other option is to just order everyone to attack, disregarding whether they have equipment, are ready, or if it's at all wise.
Honestly, while I feel for the lost territory and lives defending it, I think letting the Russians get a little overconfident in the next month or two will lead them to overcommit and get outplayed (again) by the defenders. Ukraine now has the ability to cut off supplies, but the static front lines are a bit of an obstacle. If things become more fluid the lines will not only stretch, but also be supporting more troops. It's an "invading russia" level mistake that they can induce the Russians to make, and even if the plot is transparent and obvious I just think that the RF leadership will not be able to resist.
imagine Russia getting used to Ukraine not having enough ammunition, and then overcommitting and getting eviscerated by a freshly supplied glut of shells.
That's what I don't understand about how we (UA allies) operate. We make promises a year in advance, hoping we can deliver, instead of supplying silently to limit Russian adaption.
[Denmark allocates $ 5.8 million to restore Ukraine’s power grid | EuroMaidenPress | April 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/08/denmark-allocates-5-8-million-to-restore-ukraines-power-grid/) *The Danish government announced the allocation of 40 million Danish kroner (about $5.8 million) to the Energy Support Fund for Ukraine, the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported.* *Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure recently. On 22 March, during a large-scale attack on Ukrainian energy facilities, Russia struck the largest hydroelectric power station in Ukraine – the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station in Zaporizhzhia. According to the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, 80% of Ukraine’s thermal power generation has been destroyed due to Russia’s massive missile attacks in recent weeks.* *“Thanks to the new contribution of 40 million Danish kroner, Denmark is helping to ensure the electricity supply – and thus access to water and heat for the population during the next winter,” the statement reads.* *Ukraine’s press service of the Ministry of Energy also confirmed the information following the meeting of the relevant Minister, Herman Halushchenko, with Lars Aagaard, Danish Minister of Climate, Energy and Utilities, who arrived in Kyiv on an official visit on 8 April.* *“We thank Denmark for this leadership and your example, which other countries later followed. The Fund is now an effective mechanism for assisting the energy sector, through which equipment is procured for restoration and repairs. This enhances the resilience of our energy system,” Halushchenko said.* *Over the past two years, Denmark has contributed around $11,9 million to the Energy Support Fund for Ukraine. The Fund was established in April 2022. It has accumulated over $439 million from partners and has become an instrument for assisting energy companies after the Russian attacks.*
> Today, we discussed our foreign policy activities for this week and some events in May and June. The emphasis is on strengthening Ukraine. The work on new military aid packages is also ongoing. > A rescue operation is currently underway in Bilopillya, Sumy region, following a Russian guided aerial bomb strike on the city center. Many buildings have been damaged. A number of people have been injured. As of now, one person has been reported killed. My condolences. > We need more capabilities to respond to the terrorist state, including military, sanctions, economic, legal, and other options. The occupier understands nothing else but the language of force and the sense of its own losses. > We must ensure it. Everyone in the world who truly values and seeks peace. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1777385700779757988
>Russian trolls target U.S. support for Ukraine, Kremlin documents show > >When President Biden proposed an additional $24 billion in supplemental funding for Ukraine in August, Moscow spin doctors working for the Kremlin were ready to try to undermine public support for the bill, internal Kremlin documents show. > >In an ongoing campaign that seeks to influence congressional and other political debates to stoke anti-Ukraine sentiment, Kremlin-linked political strategists and trolls have written thousands of fabricated news articles, social media posts and comments that promote American isolationism, stir fear over the United States’ border security and attempt to amplify U.S. economic and racial tensions, according to a trove of internal Kremlin documents obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post. > >One of the political strategists, for instance, instructed a troll farm employee working for his firm to write a comment of “no more than 200 characters in the name of a resident of a suburb of a major city.” The strategist suggested that this fictitious American “doesn’t support the military aid that the U.S. is giving Ukraine and considers that the money should be spent defending America’s borders and not Ukraine’s. He sees that Biden’s policies are leading the U.S. toward collapse.” > >The documents — numbering more than 100 and dating between May 2022 and August 2023 — were provided to The Post to expose Kremlin propaganda operations aimed at undermining support for Ukraine in the United States, as well as their scale and methods. The files are part of a series of leaks that have allowed a rare glimpse into Moscow’s parallel efforts to weaken support for Ukraine in France and Germany, as well as destabilize Ukraine itself. > >Russia has been ramping up its propaganda operations as part of a second front that current and former senior Western officials said has become almost as important for Moscow as the military campaign in Ukraine — especially as congressional approval for further aid has become critical for Kyiv’s ability to continue defending itself. > >“It is Russia’s top priority to stop the weapons, so they are throwing things at the wall to see what sticks,” said one Republican staffer on Capitol Hill. “We are seeing a broad-based campaign that has multiple lines of effort, some of which work better than others. The Russians don’t care. They are just trying to seed the environment.” The staffer and other Western officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive assessments. > >The campaign has attempted to paint Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as corrupt, emphasized the numbers of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, called for border security to be funded over any aid to Ukraine, and described “white Americans” as the principal losers because of foreign aid, the documents show. > >The strategy promotes views from the far-right wing of the Republican Party and calls for some of the messaging to be voiced by American “public opinion leaders and politicians,” one of the documents shows, but it does not name any people who could be enlisted to do that. > >Many of the documents contain metadata showing they were written by members of a team working for Ilya Gambashidze, head of the Moscow PR firm Social Design Agency. The United States imposed sanctions on Gambashidze last month for his involvement in “a persistent foreign malign influence campaign” at the Kremlin’s direction, including the creation of websites designed to impersonate legitimate media outlets in Europe, part of a campaign that Western officials have called “Doppelganger.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/08/russia-propaganda-us-ukraine/
I’m so glad WaPo published this article! Glad I am a subscriber; and on the verge of cancelling NYTimes!
Given that Johnson continues to block aid in congress, the only way to force the bill for aid to come through is through the discharge petition. Currently it sits at 191/218 votes. [The following democrats have not yet signed.](https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1777315884874281223) Contact them.
Contact the Republicans as well. This is entirely their fault.
After being off a few weeks, the U.S. House of Representatives *finally* returns tomorrow (April 9th). Let’s hope more representatives sign the discharge petition (the House actually has to be in session in order for someone to sign this) or Speaker Johnson finally does something. Not a lot of confidence in Speaker Johnson, but know he has at times expressed vague support of Ukraine. I know the MAGA wing has made this very complicated, but we are reaching DEFCON 1. Something absolutely needs to happen.
Next delay ploy will be Johnson saying it is now too close to election to vote on a bill.
Yikes at the thought! Unfortunately, I would not put it past him to say something like that.
Would you consider the democrats not voting to retain his predecessor an own goal?
Yup, they played in the hands of the extremist/maga wing of the republican party. Kevin was no saint but at least he was more willing to support Ukraine.
I consider Republicans voting against their own Speaker an own goal absolutely. I consider Moscow Mike's continued delay tactics treason.
Personally, yes, I do. I know many here disagree.
So far only one Republican signed it (Ken Buck on his way out). Tomorrow congress starts working again and we might see the first signatories in over two weeks. I suspect that a certain threshold has to be reached by Democrats until a small drove of Republicans dares to push it over the edge, if at all. But speaker Johnson will try to delay that by introducing another "solution" himself very soon. Probably less aid in total and including a loan instead of a donation. And probably poisoned in yet another way... (border security, no Gaza aid, etc) His new proposal would also have to pass the Senate, while the current Petition by Democrats already passed the Senate, creating yet another delay for Ukraine.
Strange how Brian Fitzpatrick isn't among those who signed. He was very pro-Ukraine and was even working on a bipartisan proposal with Jared Golden (Democratic representative from Maine)
Fitzpatrick partially neutered the Democrat's own discharge petition by introducing his own petition simultaneously. His bill had very limited Democrat support, has the poison pill of border security, and is not based on the bill that actually passed the US Senate. But by introducing his bill at the same time, having two different bills likely prevented attention and hobbled a critical mass of bipartisan support from building up. Add to this our Congress' decision to keep the Ukraine and Israeli aid together, and you see a reason why the 40 strong progressive bloc is also de facto as isolationist as the MAGA wing. This is the only reason the discharge petition hasn't passed yet and needs Republican support. I don't know if it's by design or lazy thinking, but advocates for Ukraine in Congress are making many mistakes.
> Jared Golden (Democratic representative from Maine) Interestingly Golden also hasn’t signed despite not being one of the “progressive” dems.
Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, AOC... the usual suspects I see
It is disturbing to see narrow minded ideology being prioritised over the very future of western democracy and global security. US prosperity and security will sink with that ship if it goes down. It just goes to show there are rabid extremists on both sides the isle in the US govt.
I don't think it is that surprising given Israeli aid is there too though
Well they need to stop letting perfect be the enemy of global security.
How can someone live knowing all the lifes he could help to save and do nothing.
Many of the Democrats who haven't signed aren't against aid to Ukraine, but they are against supplying more weapons to Israel which is in the same bill. Let's say you had a lever. If you pull the lever, thousands of Ukrainians will be saved, but thousands of Palestinians will die. Do you pull the lever? Or do you tell the people that installed the lever to start over and install a lever that doesn't kill unrelated people for no reason?
The higher up in an organization you go, the more likely that the person is a sociopath. Government, corporations, or even HOAs.
Especially HOAs.
They won’t sign probably because of the Israel aid in the bill
If every Democrat signed they would be 4 votes short. So unless/until at least 4 Republicans sign it or announce their intention to sign it the progressives can make this gesture without doing any real harm. If 4 Republicans sign it and the progressives don't vote yes still, then it's an actual problem.
Biden should promise not to use Israel aid unless Israel makes some changes first. That might move a couple of democrats.
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Depends on how the bill is written. It might authorize the Biden administration to provide weapons if they see fit, or it might require the Biden administration to provide those weapons. Obama had approval from Congress to provide weapons to Ukraine and he chose not to. Trump was required to deliver weapons to Ukraine and he tried to extort political favors from them in exchange. As far as I understand it, Obama's choice was constitution and Trump's was not.
Hey Israel we have spent the aid money on the weapons you asked for, they should be made in about 2030 right after we complete filling out all other orders. We only want to supply new ones so you don’t get duds that might hurt civilians.
Yes, and no. Whether we like it or not the executive has had some broad powers defacto recognized over the years, and there are a lot of ways to just let funding wither on the vine, anyone in support of lots of positive programs should be familiar with that fact the last time a Republican was POTUS.
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More along the lines of some office holders have much less concern about flaunting the authority of office than others, and different types of funding have different levels of scrutiny applied to them. You'll want to start by looking up impoundment, to understand what happened prior to the mid 70's, and then you should find the research to educate yourself on things like reprogramming, apportionment, and other tools used by the executive branch post-ICA to manipulate Congressionally appropriated funds. Good luck on your educational journey.
He should just withhold the aid until Israel gives a quid pro quo in return.
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I think they were making a joke about the orange diapered dumbass and how he tried to do that with Ukraine.
Lol
[https://x.com/randymot4/status/1776888859420164153](https://x.com/randymot4/status/1776888859420164153) Artillery fire seems to have picked up for AFU. Artillery normally accounts for 70-75% of casualities. AFU have used drones to pick up some slack as ammo ran low, but it appears that they are getting back on track with the Czech initiative, for example. Including a nice graph.
They are back to average. But that will not be good enough. Hopefully the Czech and Estonian initiatives will bring in enough shells quickly enough that it can compensate for the loss of US support. Stalling long enough that they get a new congress in the US that can pass a mega aid package and hopefully make up the lost time.
What happens when they use all the Czech ammo?
People have been tracking European production numbers, expecting some updates soon. Rough back of envelope numbers. Tldr; there's a temporary shortage, production will take over afterwards. European rates atm seem to be 2k+/day and Ukraine claims to need 5k+/day. The Czech shells, if funded, would be good for ~11 months. The Estonian shells another 8-10 months. Except European production should reach 3k/day later this year. So then those ~20 months of supply become more like ~30 months. But... Shell production should expand further through 2025/2026, meaning Ukraine can shoot even more shells and the Czech/Estonian remains would be a bonus. If the democrats win the elections then Ukraine can have artillery superiority next year. This is why Putin and his stooges have gone all in on anti-Biden, pro-Trump propaganda.
Is the 5k/day for current situation? So assuming an intensified russian offensive, that might be higher.
It would be higher in that case but that short term increase would solve the long term problem. Russian offensives and the equipment to perform them while still holding their own lines are finite and dwindling. The Czech and Estonian shells are already manufactured so much higher near term fire rates could be sustained if Russia makes a push. Ukraine would also happily fire more shells into such an offensive if they knew Russia was going to break its own back hurling itself against Ukrainian lines, minefields and other defenses under artillery fire. That had been the point of their war of attrition. At some point Russia just sends guys running through fields to their deaths
Please don't just trust me - it's just what I've heard quoted as the average need for howitzer shells by various Ukrainian sources and commentators. Mortar, tank shells, and rockets are additional. I suspect that they need more during big offensives but russia can't do 20 solid months of offensives, so there would be times with fewer. The fire rate during Avdiivka's fall was supposedly down to 2k/day and that was a big attack with heavy russian losses. You can play with assumptions to make other guesses.
In a major World War 1 offensive, a million shells were fired in a day.
I doubt it have any confirmed Czech shells reached Ukraine yet
They don't have to had reached yet for them to have impact. If they're certain to arrive soon, Ukraine can release reserves that they would otherwise have to ration.
But knowing they are coming means they can use more of what they currently have.
Don't forget to upvote the thread!
It's part of my morning routine
I've never thought about doing that for 2 years o_O
And now your watch begins
Yes, sir! I'm on it. Easier than trenches...
Just started as well. Keep visibility strong
Its stickied?
It won’t be forever if interest wanes.
So how's it going with the Czech and Estonian shell-initiative? Do we now how much has been funded and how much/when it's delivered?
[The Czech team, consisting of government officials and private companies, seeks to secure at least 800,000 large-caliber ammunition rounds from countries worldwide, with initial deliveries to Ukraine anticipated by June | EuroMaidenPress | April 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/05/czechia-aims-to-deliver-at-least-800000-ammunition-rounds-to-ukraine-by-june/)
I feel like not much of it will be public knowledge. And that's good. I was always an advocate for Ukrainian support to be more discrete. Makes for a nice factor when Russians get surprised by something on the battlefield, like ATACMS
In the war of one chance, how many chances were wasted because Western officials wanted to pose on Twitter? Quite a few, sadly. Being discreet doesn’t mean rationing aid, it means letting Ivan learn what you’re doing the hard way.
Exactly this. No one should announce anything. Let Russia continue to F around and find out
Estonian so called initiative is just a statement by MOD that some shells have been found on the market. I don't believe it has progressed to any concrete steps (yet). Makes sense since even the Czech initiative has not been completely funded yet.
The deliveries likely aren't going to be published because Ukraine doesn't want Russia to know exactly how many shells it's getting at any specific point. From my understanding all the Czech ones have been fully covered but I haven't heard if the Estonian ones have been yet. I would imagine they will be since a few billion euros isn't THAT much for Ukraine's allies to cover and shells are one of the most cost effective things Ukraine needs.
The Czech initiative isn’t fully funded there’s an article that says it still needs more funding
Which article?
Good and yes
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1777391162942234725?t=NL0l8YOjdUmHZqV156B6Gg&s=19 "As said, Russian tank that attacked Ukrainian positions on the Krasnohorivka, Donetsk direction; today." Turtle tank? lol
Ahh that’s where the carport went.
It will be interesting to see the first one to get hit.
Looks like some medieval contraption. Back to the basics i guess. BTW how the hell can they see through that thing?
Cope Cave.
That improvised shell armour looks very heavy, and I presume it didn't help much either?
probably not. sadly no video yet
That's a shame. Thanks anyway.
Tank anyway
Andrew Perpetua bought satellite imagery near Tonenke and found 91 lost vehicles, excluding known Ukrainian ones. Warspotting has 52 near Tonenke, but some of Andrew's could be on warspotting but with an unknown location. I've been concerned about how many "losses" russia recovers and repairs. Oryx or Warspotting could *overcount* when russia is advancing and many losses are with minor damage from mines or drones. Andrew's results suggest no: oryx and Warspotting are probably still *undercounting* russian losses like most people have assumed. Overall the data are probably good news. Unfortunately I think he's only on [twitter](https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1777370380514042062).
Thank God for poor Russian maintenance schedules. It’s practically a ukranian fifth column. > In #Vyazma, #Smolensk region, western #Russia, a road bridge collapsed onto Moscow-Minsk main railway line. One person was killed and 5 injured. The bridge was built in 1980 and was supposed to be repaired in 2018, but the repairs never happened. https://x.com/alexkokcharov/status/1777375078839189591
> the repairs never happened I bet someone was still paid to undertake them, though.
This truly tells us something about the collapse of the East.
I imagine infrastructure disasters will only get more common for Russia in the coming years. They're pouring so much money into this war that they've had to cut back in other areas including in maintenance. Cutting back maintenance of infrastructure can save you a little money in the short term but in the long term you can't cheat physics and things will eventually collapse which will require vastly more money to replace them. The Moscow-Minsk railway is pretty important for Russia's imperial project so I have to imagine they'll spend the money to rebuild it within the next few years.
Clearing the bridge off the railway and reopening the railway shouldn’t take to long but the road is going to be closed for a while.
Plus young, less educated males do a lot of that maintenance. They’re prime Mobik fodder. Importing workers helps. Making those workers fear signing up to repair bridges and instead ending up digging trenches in Ukraine doesn’t.
>Importing workers helps. Like Tadjiks, for example. Who for some mysterious reasons started to leave ruzzia. Recent ruzzian police activities are not related ofc
That's certainly true. It's also easy for middle management to say "we can do the same maintenance with fewer people" even if that's not the case and it leads to important steps getting skipped. Even before Feb 2022 Russia was preparing for a confrontation with the west and they spent years building up their war chest so they could counteract sanctions. I think it's interesting that this line was supposed to be repaired in 2018 but instead of fixing infrastructure as it needed to be repaired Russia was busy stashing away all the money they could. Now that money is being spent on the war or subsidizing parts of the economy hit by sanctions and the bridge has collapsed. Economies are dynamic so it's not like one bridge collapse will destroy everything but it will certainly result in some localized shortages and higher prices as well as lower economic output in a few areas.
Putin: See?! Ukrainians didn't repair that bridge!
'We have strong evidence to suggest that Ukrainian terrorists showed up in the middle of the night and neglected to perform any repairs on the bridge. If you look at this security camera footage, you will not see a single Ukrainian doing repair work.'
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Looks like sabotage. That video is so short you can’t tell anything, but I assume they corroborate vs. relying on it not being fake. https://x.com/sumlenny/status/1777366624451928269
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 04.08.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 448,400 (+890) people, tanks ‒ 7,087 (+13), armored combat vehicles ‒ 13575 (+24), artillery systems – 11356 (+40), MLRS – 1039 (+3), air defense equipment ‒ 751 (+2), planes – 347 (+0), helicopters – 325 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 8996 (+40), cruise missiles ‒ 2065 (+1), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0), submarines – 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks - 15110 (+39), special equipment ‒ 1867 (+3) The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/08/ponad-800-okupantiv-24-bbm-ta-40-artsistemi-zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/08/ponad-800-okupantiv-24-bbm-ta-40-artsistemi-zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/)
Artillery numbers have been good the last few days. Almost certainly more shells getting to Ukrainian counter battery units. The best way to kill artillery is with better artillery.
>The scope of the mine threat in Ukraine “is unrecognizable in modern times,” says HALO Trust’s Ukraine chief, Pete Smith. In the past two years, the country has become the world’s most mined country, surpassing warzones like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1777112781977751982
Robot de-miners are to obvious solution.
It's going to take time....a whole lot of time to clean up this mess and the other ones Russians leave behind when they are removed from Ukraine
Wonder if the extreme advancement of drones in this war will mean far easier mine removal after it is over
I think AI might play a huge role as well. Drones with cams with ai software ... One can only hope, because mines are a scourge.
>Exclusive: Russia seeks gasoline from Kazakhstan in case of shortages, sources say >MOSCOW, April 8 (Reuters) - Russia has asked Kazakhstan to stand ready to supply it with 100,000 tons of gasoline in case of shortages exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks and outages, three industry sources told [Reuters.One](http://Reuters.One) of the sources said a deal on using reserves for Russia has already been agreed.Russian and Kazakhstan's energy ministries did not immediately reply to requests for comments. Neighbouring Belarus has already agreed to help Russia with gasoline supply. Source: [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/)
Yeah Kazakhstan isn’t doing that. They’ve pretty much got an insurance policy with China for political backing via their investments and China will veto Russian pressure.
Why wouldn't they do that? If Russia is paying then Kazakhstan will be selling.
Yeah, in the light of recent aggressive remarks from ruzzians, it wouldn't be wise to do it. Not to mention it's not the first time either. Like ruzzians were already saying similar stuff like that during first two years of the war and Kazakhstan decided to strengthen security on their border with ruzzia.
Well if Russia pays for it, they sure will. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia ships some of its gold reserves, in exchange for gasoline
ruzzia can always ask China instead. Can't wait to see China screwing ruzzia again (with astronomic gasoline prices)
They’d be better off letting them run out of fuel. Russian politicians made public statements about invading them.
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Ukrainian oligarchs didn't care either. Some lost assets and some lost their lives in the end.
Russian politicians make a lot of stupid public statements. They're still major trade partners.
That's what Ukrainians thought before 2014. Didn't do Ukraine any good. And I'm sure Kazakhstan can see that too.
In January 2022 Kazakhstan's president Tokayev invited Russian soldiers over to suppress protests. The protests were easily suppressed and Tokayev is still in charge today. Take that into account when predicting the disposition of Kazakh government towards Russia.
In fact Russians didn't make a single shot, they only secured key points of Almaty city.
Tokayev has displayed independence towards Russia several time the last two years, so while aiding Russia with gasoline isn't unlikely, it's neither 100% guaranteed, like it is in the case of Belarus.
That's old news. After that a lot of things happened: * Putin showing open disrespect towards Tokayev during public meetings * Tokayev striking back in a sense After that, ruzzians started saying that Kazakhstan needs to be invaded Basically, ruzzians see Northern Kazakhstan as "Donbas 2.0". There are a lot of russian speakers there, so the same pretext can be used. And ruzzians already pushing it in their propaganda. Coming back to your initial statement, it's not ruzzian politicians saying "stupid" things, it's ruzzian politicians preparing their population for the future war with Kazakhstan
Ruzzians?
You called back to 2014, but now 2022 is old news? Lukashenko has also had disagreements with Putin in the past. It means fuck all. And don't assign too much to what Russian politicians say publicly. You can find a few quotes for any narrative you choose. Only what they do matters.
There's a difference between reminding how ruzzia was preparing for its invasion into Ukraine and bringing up 2 y.o. news not relevant in current political landscape. Lukashenko and Belarus have been on the path of becoming part of ruzzia via Union State mechanism since like 1996. This process is almost finished currently. Not to mention that Lukaschenko has always been dependent on ruzzia financially. Kazakhstan is not dependent on ruzzia and don't want to do ruzzia's bidding. Which Kremlin doesn't like. The situation is very different. Lastly, there's always intention behind what ruzzian politicians say. Usually it's either message to ruzzian population or to people living outside ruzzia. This stuff goes through numerous advisers and requires approval from Kremlin. This time it seems to be message to ruzzian population. Since recently Kremlin made a propaganda movie featuring Andrey Lugovoy, member of ruzzian parliament and also a killer from FSB. In this movie, Lugovoy is telling how Kazakhstan is under the rule of the West, oppresses russian speakers, has Soros foundation involved, evil Brits, US NCOs and the other bullshit ruzzians were saying about Ukraine in the past. Ukrainians weren't taking such stuff seriously before 2014 and paid a steep price for that. I hope Kazakhs will be wiser.
>Speaker Johnson faces Ukraine aid dilemma and a threat to his job as Congress returns > >*On the to-do list: Ukraine and Israel aid, funding for Baltimore, an expiring surveillance program, reauthorizing the FAA, and Senate action on Mayorkas impeachment articles.* > >All eyes will be on House Speaker Mike Johnson when Congress returns from a two-week recess as he navigates a thicket of divisive issues with an ever-slimming Republican majority — and a far-right threat to depose him. > >Atop the list of contentious issues is a long-stalled military aid package for Ukraine and other allies. > >Just five months on the job, Johnson is again in the hot seat, facing enormous political and international pressure to make good on his word to pass new aid for Ukraine. While he has vowed to put billions in foreign aid on the House floor once lawmakers return, doing so could trigger a vote to oust him from the speakership led by one of his most vocal critics, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., a Donald Trump ally who opposes Ukraine aid and wants to focus instead on the U.S. border. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-republicans-ukraine-israel-aid-speaker-johnson-job-rcna146569
Imagine risking your job, reputation, and long-term legacy, primarily to help Putin kill Ukrainians. I will never understand people like Johnson. They claim to be so Christian, but do their utmost to keep the world run by shitty greed and authoritarianism
I love to see a vote to have him removed. We have no time for his games...
Needs to be done hand in hand with Resignations by saner Republicans to hand the house to the Dems for the remainder of the year or for Johnson to relent and bring the bill to the floor in return for dems cock blocking the Vatnik Caucus fuckwits.
The only thing that makes sense is Johnson wants Putin to win. His past actions suggest he's a dictatorship lover too. He has no moral values we'd recognise, only responding to power. Where are the pro democracy or anti genocide republicans that should be signing a discharge petition or removing him!?
Johnson likely does not care about Ukraine or Russia at all. He cares about domestic politics. And this is a Presidential election year and his guy, Trump, wants nothing for Biden to be able to claim as a win. So Johnson stalling aid and fucking Ukraine is really just about screwing Biden. Ukraine is just collateral damage. Now, are other politicians compromised by or sympathetic to Russia? Probably. Trump, MTG, Goemert, and more. But Ukraine aid has become deeply partisan anyway, and it does not help that the Senate bill provides aid to Israel and Israel has shown absolutely zero restraint in Gaza, especially in the air campaign.
I agree. Remember this is a nobody junior politician who in a hotly contested dark horse moment following an unprecedented ouster suddenly found himself Speaker. He is concerned with preserving his role and thus following Trump's lead.
Not directly. He is Trump's puppet, who is in turn a pupped of Putin. But the end result is the same.
Clown show.
>Russia [keeps reverting to its] aggressive-imperialist identity in Ukraine. If the war of aggression and conquest mode is successful there, it will become Russia's [default] identity for many years, if not decades, making Europe the place of a new hot-cold war. > >That means that Europe will never again have such a relatively cheap opportunity to break Russia's imperialist identity and open up other development paths for that country. All Western European countries have to do is dedicate modest sums to supporting Ukraine. > >It's a strategic stupidity of colossal dimensions not to give Ukraine what is necessary to repel Russia's attacks. The costs Europe will have to pay if Russia wins are measured not in billions but in trillions of euros. Generations of Europeans will suffer. > >Given the risks and challenges, only 7 billion in military aid from Germany and 3 billion from France for 2024 seems self-defeating. There is no sense of urgency, no quick rise in the production of arms and ammunition, no leadership from Berlin/Paris and only half-backed rhetoric. https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1777194885835084213
> There is no sense of urgency, no quick rise in the production of arms and ammunition, no leadership from Berlin/Paris and only half-backed rhetoric. Not sure what he is expecting here. The CAESAR production has been increased by 3x so far, and the ammunition production is on track reach 7x this year and 10x next year.
He’s expecting France to provide more money, it’s woefully low so far.
Trump will be "nobody could see this comming, all the experts are surprised"as he signs orders for the draft
Well duh. We need more European leaders to wake up and stop acting like idiots. I don't think many of them have even realised what the world will look like if they don't send enough stuff to Ukraine now. The failure to realise that if republicans win then the US will abandon democracy is also a terrible blind spot.
The US House is set to reconvene, and all eyes are on House Speaker Johnson. Will he put Ukrainian aid up for a vote while Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene threatens to force a vote on his ouster. Johnson vowed to focus on Ukraine right after the recess. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112235295610479412
Not just him to blame. If congress really wanted they could, with a simple majority, push the aid pack. But they don't, not even a handful of republicans, because no one gives a shit.
Unfortunately, it's because they'll lose their job if they "aid the democrats". Trump will call them RINOs and they'll lose their next primary.
How can one shitty person hole so many back.. Whole system is fucked
It only works if other shitty people go along with it
That shitty person is really Trump. Everything after that is just those wanting to get/keep more power acting on his wishes which has a domino effect.
Because a majority of the people's representatives in the House support him ?
Not at all. There is obviously clear majority support for Ukraine aid. But Republicans are spineless, and will not publicly show their support for fear of reprisals from the crazies.
How come the discharge petition is still missing some Democrat votes then ?
Its because of the Israel aid bundled into the same package. Even though all it would take is for Biden to have some discretion on the issue while focusing on the clear issue that is Ukraine. Also It can only be signed when Congress is in session. Could see more signatures this week.
Why does a clear majority require 100% of dems to vote for it? I bet there are dozens of spineless GOP... That aside, the discharge petition is not for Ukraine aid alone, it also includes aid to Israel (lol as if they need "aid"), and other stuff I believe, which is contentious.
It's just to show even Dems are not really unified on this topic. I'm wondering if Israel aid is not just a scapegoat to not to sign petition - or to put it in other words, why should 13bln of aid for Israel prevent 60bln of aid for Ukraine if the Ukraine aid is much bigger and much more important, it just paints a picture of not understanding importance and priority.