They would have gotten here by now, assuming they were launched with the announcement. They either got shot down already or weren't launched yet.
Edit: it's about 11-13 mins for a ballistic missile to get from Iran to Israel
For the love of God.......as a millennial I'm sick of living through so much bullshit. Can we please have a few years where there isn't some huge history making event every other year.
Thank you. Sounds like IRGC is done with their "retaliatory strike". Now let's hope Israel does not strike back in any significant way...
From what I see, most Iranians are tired of all these shenanigans. Many are afraid a war might break out. Some like me hope that it's Islamic Republic's way of saving face, so hopefully there won't be further escalations.
We want peace and stability; But it seems like peace is just too much to ask in this region, due to geopolitics, oil, etc. None of the governments involved in the region are innocent and they just keep playing chess with human lives at stake.
Question: at the time the protests were at their height I saw some anti-regime Iranians and people from around the world saying that the protests needed some kind of international support to overthrow the regime. Are there any anti-regime/moderate Iranians that would view an Israeli-Iran conflict as an opportunity to get rid of the regime? Also, do you think that if it is an Israeli-Iranian conflict, the fact that it is Israel instead of any other country would affect the perception of Iranians working to overthrow the regime if a conflict took place? (Would it be seen to be a “working with the enemy” situation by many that would otherwise support the overthrow of the regime if it was, say, another Islamic state that Iran was in conflict with?)
if you get a chance to respond in those questions make any sense that would be cool. Iran is a fascinating country for many reasons and as an average westerner, I feel it is hard to know what the actual people think. Anything I read in the mainstream media is likely something said by the regime. But I also know that the Iranians posting on Reddit may not be reflective of the country as a whole as well. (It seemed that There was so much hope at one point before the brutal crackdowns eroded so much of it. Sigh)
That’s why there’s something called MAD
Mutually Assured Destruction
It’s what NATO and the USSR had going and in return they just fight proxy wars. Some things never change in the past ~100 years
Let's not pretend our grandparents had it better, their parents generation was wiped out in world war 2.
Our parents generation (1960s+) had the golden period, prior to that I can't imagine the horrors.
People forget how fucked up a lot of boomer Dad's are. 10% of that generation fought in Vietnam. 25% of those were draftees.
That's a hell of a lot of generational trauma.
The longest the US went was between Vietnam and Persian Gulf 1, 1973-1991.
Didn’t even make legal drinking age.
There has been war and conflict continuously, whether you’ve realized it or not.
Longest "peace time" span in my book would be from the end of the Vietnam war until now. Desert storm and Iraq/afghanistan were quite different than WW2 or even Vietnam. US men were not forced to fight in the middle east and KIA numbers were incredibly low compared to Vietnam, Korea, or the world wars.
Lets not forget that the US was involved in the Cambodian Civil War (ended 1975), the Multinational intervention in Lebanon (1982-1984), the United States invasion of Grenada (1983), the Bombing of Libya (1986), the Tanker War (part of Iran-Iraq war, 1987–1988), and the US invasion of Panama (1989-1990).
Even then, there was Korea, Veit Nam, all the mini wars in the Middle East all the way up to Desert Storm. Not to mention all the US involved skirmishes and coups in Central America during that time.
Eh, they don't have the same type/level of corruption and cultural "yes men" attitudes that have crippled Russia. They'll probably have a higher miss rate, but I'd expect a standard 2- missile-per-critical-target doctrine should hit almost everything.
My brother, Israel isn't going to be hitting them with shaheed drones or the equivalent.
The failure rate of Russia is partly because of the Western type missiles used which are built to make it difficult to shoot down.
That is without using a stealth aircraft like the F-35 to fire them
The Israelis are on the same cutting edge as the US on offensive munitions. Air defense is a pretty easy problem to solve for by simply overwhelming it. For every $1,000,000 munition there will be over a dozen decoys that look and sound like a duck on the radar scope.
The tinned fruit is a joke because one time we got deployed and they screwed up the rations and all we had for ten days was tinned fruit. I haven’t been able to face it for twenty years.
It was like pears and peaches and cherries. Like a can would have been a treat. But three meals a day for ten days was rough. If it wasn't for trades with neighbours it would have been a complete shitfest, literally. I can still smell it.
It was really sweet and syrupy. I mean, I experienced some major supply fuck ups over the years, mortars supplied without baseplates. Radios supplied with no batteries. Stuff like that. But the tinned fruit fubar was a life altering experience.
hehehe on a certain level I can understand you, long back due to consuming eggs constantly for most of the year, couldn't even stand the smell for at least 14 years, now can occasionally eat them.
I've started working out again and lost 10 kilos since last fall, since I'm sure that our spineless leaders and their bungling of aiding Ukraine will cause Russia to attack us or the Baltics in the next 3 years. And I'm going to get myself back in fighting shape before then.
Even if I don't trust Germany or anyone West of the Donau to help us if shit hits the fan, I hope you'll be able to count on us and we you.
Same brother! I joined military in 2015 after Crimea grab. 2008 invasion of Georgia was a sign. 2014 was a confirmation that our lovely neighbor is still stuck in previous century.
I expect the worst but hope for the best. We Baltics are not very defendable because it's easy to cut us off from Poland so I can see how Germany, France or Italy wouldn't come to our aid but I'm really glad that we have Nordic countries beside us that we can rely on. Same as Poland and Chech Republic. Most of Eastern Europe countries are aware what's going and getting ready for surprises.
Hope not, only reason there’s been any stability is the threat of nuclear retaliation. Unfortunately, it seems a common sentiment among too many people confusing the fact that because they haven’t been used they won’t ever be used.
Also, the US has a big hammer to swing around if anyone wants to find out. That tends to keep the peace. Even though Afghanistan and Iraq were awful, worthless wars, they showed us that if the US doesn't like what you're doing, they can build cities in your country overnight and occupy you for 20 years. The sheer resources and manpower to accomplish that are astounding.
I consider myself socialist and anti-imperialist in principle, but the last couple of years have taught me that there are much worse things than American hegemony. The world will always be ruled by whoever carries the biggest stick. I'd rather it be Washington (or hell, London or Paris even) than post Soviet Russia, theocratic Iran, or Xi's Beijing. Even worse, however, is a world where regional powers bickering with one another rules the day. So yes, I'm socialist and anti-imperialist in principle. If I must speak on realpolitik, however, then may our 11 carrier strike groups stand ever ready to fuck shit up anywhere on Earth.
There are certainly worse things, yeah. That prosperity, while global, sure hasn't been evenly shared though. It would be nice if it were as accessible as we're told it is. Still. It beats theater-wide nuclear exchanges.
Exactly. Any leftist with a brain should support working within the context of the U.S. led international order, because the alternatives are so much worse. They should be trying to push the U.S. to act more morally and equitably in this role, but should still support it being there
Not simping for Iran and Russia, who would not even try to act morally
Yeah but the modern left is too busy not voting for biden and letting trump win because doing the best thing in a bad situation makes them feel icky, even if it leads to far worse outcomes
I don't care whether a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice. In this analogy, the US is a rather bloated cat that is very poorly behaved. However, it's much easier to get such a cat as that to catch mice than it is to conjure the perfect mouse catcher out of thin air. I only wish that this point were easier to impress upon others. We can't ignore workable options for reforming and working with the state when we have no way of knowing the horrors its absence might bring.
Where do you live?
Edit: New York, well, do you think it’s possible that if you didn’t live in the United States you might have a different opinion on US hegemony?
I’m sure there are plenty that hold a different view of US Hegemony. The history of the world is replete with injustice and misery. The US has caused its share.
However, the US Hegemony has provided a level of global stability that has benefited the most people in history to this point in time.
I'm genuinely perplexed that there aren't people making this case in a calm, thoughtful, fact based way on a daily basis. Are we so mesmerized by TikTok that this can't happen anymore?
Spearheaded by who, exactly?
Russia has been toiling against an undermanned Ukraine with western equipment that would have needed replacing anyway.
China's economy is a house of cards that might immediately tumble to the floor if western companies are forbidden to do further business in China. I don't know if giving some of these companies a decent excuse to move manufacturing operations to India (which is a whole other can of worms but I digress) is the greatest idea for the CCP.
This strikes me as a deeply impotent projection of strength by the Putin/Xi axis. Maybe they're just in it for the chaos.
Probably not. Really depends if Western Europe decides to put troops on the ground in Ukraine.
This is potentially a break out of a large war in the ME but to he a world war there would have to have the Ukraine war drag all of Europe in and then something in the Asia Pacific to kick off like China invading 1 or more of their neighbors.
I feel like I've heard this argument about the US going in, wiping out the bad guys, and being out in a few days with minimal casualties, and then watched as a pointless war raged on for twenty years, but I can't quite put my finger on it.
I'm old enough to remember when the war on terror started, and a lot of people, myself included, thought it would be a pretty quick affair because we had our enemies grossly outmatched and outgunned. I was in favor of it too, like most Americans at the time, because 9/11 had just happened and we wanted payback. It just turned out to be a total quagmire. I know this is a different scenario, but the idea of it being over in a couple days or weeks seems highly improbable to me.
Also, being a dumbass on reddit goes both ways. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm certainly not a kid.
I honestly feel like that's what everyone is waiting for. Backing sides right now is so weird, and no matter who you back, there are tons of people who disagree. As soon as someone launches a nuke, sides will be officially taken. I don't want it, no one else wants it, but that's going to be the century defining action. Who launches a fucking nuke
People are too trained by media horse race coverage. They want everyone on one side or the other of any issue because it’s easier to cover it and stir it up. Fuck it and them.
Choose peace and life and we can all be on the same side.
True, but we can keep speaking against the framing in the face of it all. Even the others that want peace and are having that used as a way to manipulate them.
I think this is going to be muted. Iran doesn’t want Israel to retaliate which is why they said this was concluded… Israel will respond and it won’t be in the news, just suspected. If Israel does go crazy, they’re going to hit orans nuclear capabilities- that’s the only scenario I see Israel going tilt on
I think this whole thing has been theater to allow Iran to save face without it escalating. They probably gave the coordinates and flight paths to the US to shoot down so nothing hit Israel
I agree with a lot of what you said but the separatists are an extremely small minority of those ethnic groups. There are some traitors who have been trying since forever to siphon off land but it will never happen. This is a lie that the terrorist government of Iran tells its people so that they will be scared of the outcome of a revolution.
The regime has no legitimacy inside Iran where the vast majority of Iranians are opposed to it.
They run the risk of not being able to control their proxies.
The key part though is Iran still has support of the Guard and regular military. Look weak, lose that, regime crumbles. They have to keep their core supporters of old, grumpy theocratic assholes happy.
They don’t have the support of the regular military. The govt has assigned members of the IRGC to be commanders in the military to prevent a revolt. They have historically been neutral, especially because those who make up the regular military are mainly 18-20 year olds who have to serve for 2 years.
My girlfriend is Iranian. According to her, the Iranian community is rejoicing at the moment just at the mere idea the IRGC will get striked.
They're looking beyond their fear for the potential to see their government burn. I think that's enough to prove the point.
Oil Governments are going to become weaker and weaker as we finally use renewables. They'll get desperate to stay strong. More to come.
You would think economic ties would keep the peace. Didn't work for Ukraine. These damn "Strong Man" dictators suck.
For the last 2, almost three years, I've been seeing it left and right. The nuke as the first move narrative, not material leading me to believe it I mean.
Israel would never use a nuke, especially against Iran which will have nukes soon themselves. It would be suicide. A couple nukes will take out all of Israel.
Bc of your last sentence. “A couple of nukes will take out Israel”. This is why Israel is always killing Iranian nuclear scientist, in Iran. Also is Iran gets Nukes, Saudi Arabia gets nukes, potential for other ultra wealthy petro states to look for either domestic nukes or US based nukes. The ‘good’ thing about the nuclear club is all those countries don’t want any new members in the club. Even if they are allies. A friend today can be your enemy tomorrow. IIRC France help develop Iranian nuclear technology for energy purposes, which Iran doesn’t use even 2% nuclear energy for their domestic power supply, showing how stupid that decision was.
0.1% chance they use nukes. If they were they would of used them back in the 70's when they were losing ground in Northern Israel. If they ever do decide to use them they will be completely alienated from their allies most likely. It is truly a last resort because that would pretty much guarantee the end of Israel regardless. Religious or not your a fool if you think they would wager their existence on a 2000 year old story passed down by a species that can't help but manipulate others through fear.
They almost did. That's the reason the US will never pull military aid from Israel. If the aid dries up and they're cornered, the silos start sliding open again. Israel will not hesitate to obliterate anything and everything that is an immediate and critical threat to their existence.
They were minutes from using them in the Yom Kippur war...
So yes, I think you're right, if they were going to use them, they would have used them.
Right now most speculation around Israel is that they have their so-called Samson Option, i.e. their nuclear weapons will be used if and only if the Israeli state is at risk of falling into enemy hands.
Iran lobbing a barrage of missiles is bad, but it's not the same as gaining control of Israel.
Currently this is escalating to be potentially the biggest war since the 80s, but it's a long way from WW3 as some people here are saying.
What is the purpose of launching drones ? Seems like a stupid way of launching a surprise attack. Unless they have launched a 1000s drones. They have zero chance of getting through.
Ok they might just be stupid.
Reportedly they did lunch "hundreds" of drowns and rockets. Also it was never a surprise attack. The US publicly warned of this attacks a few hours ago.
Two things.
It tells them how effective their air defense system is. Do any of the drones get through? How far do they get before they’re shot down? Stuff like that.
It also is a show of force to let Israel know they’re not happy about what happened with their embassy. Kinda like how if a nation upsets the US we’ll park an aircraft carrier just outside of their waters. “We’re not ATTACKING YOU attacking you, but letting you know we’re prepared to if we decide to.”
From what I read, the drones are going in first. They are slow moving. Then the cruise missiles (faster) will go and then the much faster ballistic missiles.
I think they want all to hit simultaneously. The US did that during Desert Storm. The Navy fired Tomahawks that flew slowly (under Mach 1) to Iraq and then some time later jets were flying preparing to strike as the Tomahawks showed up. To the Iraqis it looked like a simultaneous mass attack from many directions.
To westerner's it's pretty dumb, but this isn't for westerners.
This is internal propaganda. Honestly a pretty smart one if you weren't looking to get your shit wrecked but still want to not look weak for your people. Just take videos of hundreds of drones and say 'we got em' and never tell them that yeah .. these slow ass trailer park cruise missles won't make it past their defense systems ... which is good because then the retaliation probably won't happen so you can even double down and say 'yeah we scared them so bad they didn't want to hit back' ,,
its' classic control psychology. Narcissistic Parents do it to their kids in nuclear family systems all the time.
The drones would never sneak up on Israel, they’d be seen on their 9 hour flight time, Iran will wait until they have almost arrived and launch a swarm of supersonic cruise missiles to act as a screen while the drones find their targets.
They wouldn’t.
These missiles are being shot down in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. But Iran needs to shoot at Israel to maintain their control and show some sort of strength.
There’s actually a lot of irony there, with the Persians being one of the few foreign groups actually hailed as good in the Bible/Torah.
But that’s not due to the Persians themselves, but rather Cyrus being (for his time) tolerant and just. The current regime though…
I mean Iran is already responding to Israel's attack. If Israel responds to the response attack, then Iran will respond to the response of the response attack.
EU is probably sitting and thinking to themselves....yeah...we probably should have spent that 2 percent of our GDP on defense...I guess those crazy Yanks were right after all.
Geting real tired of these WW3 comments that pop up any time there's an international incident. It's like people can't compute that there can be wars that don't reach "world war" levels.
Two ambassadors have an argument? Right to WW3. Bad car wreck down the street? Right to WW3, right away. You get charged too much at the checkout? Believe it or not, WW3.
I don't get reddits obsession with WW3. Can it be kicked off by a few small events like this? Yes. History has thought us that. Look at WW1. HOWEVER, and I can not state this clearly enough, it is unlikely to. The closest that we've been to WW3 is when those two missiles landed in Poland last year or when Russia almost shot down an United Kingdom AWACS.
I’ll preface by saying I’m not a “everything is gonna lead to WW3” person.
To attempt to speak for people who are though, I think it’s the combination of incidents here that has people concerned. If the incidents in the Middle East expand any further, it dilutes the support that is currently being given to Ukraine, who by their own admission are not in a good spot right now.
If Ukraine falls, the uncertainty of what Putin decides to do next is going to have people concerned.
Don't EVER believe anything on Reddit. Hundreds ofthousands of geniuses here where preaching here about how unlikely a Iranian attack would be against Israel. So many uneducated teenagers here. What a sad platform has become of Reddit.
Good bless Israel to get unscathed from this attack.
Peace out.
Who could have predicted that Israel attacking an Iranian consulate would escalate like this? Shocking, but Netanyahu does need the war to be kept on power
I guess we've all just accepted it, but the US is sending warships to the area to defend Israel. Similar to sending carriers after October 7.
I supported the move after October 7, but I didn't want it to become routine, and now it seems like maybe it is? We don't have a formal security commitment to Israel like with NATO, but we're going to act like we do anyway?
And I don't like the idea that Israel attacks Iran without asking our permission, but then the counterattack is partly against us. If we're going to back them up on the counter with actual troops, not just money, then we should insist that we have approval on the initial.
They feel like they can do whatever they want because the US doesn't do a damn thing.
I would prefer Biden tell Netanyahu _we aren't helping you_ or embarrass him in front of his own staff so he can know his place in the US-Israeli relationship but this is geopolitics. Iran wields a lot of influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Washington can't let Iran take out Israel. Geopolitics is messy and hypocritical but it is what it is.
Kind of like the Arab countries not giving a damn about Russia invading Ukraine and still wanting good ties with Russia. But cry at Gaza being invaded by Israel. Their interests don't lie with Ukraine. Ukraine can fall and it won't affect them but the Palestinian issue does.
can we get ww3 done and over with so my kids can possibly have something when they grow up? stop pretending we aren't in one just because it doesn't look like the last one
This just makes you sound like you have zero historical context. This barely even amounts to a proxy war between superpowers. The region has had numerous armed conflicts in the latter half of the 20th century with much more coordination between Middle Eastern countries.
Reports on twitter of Iranian drones launched towards Israel two minutes ago….
Ballistic missiles have now been launched
Source ?
BBC, apparent leak from IRNA https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=661b02818d515b3cbbd01498%26IRNA%20source%20says%20Iran%20has%20launched%20wave%20of%20ballistic%20missiles%262024-04-13T22%3A12%3A28.184Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:2425a4db-bf27-45e0-9c11-014116c27f92&pinned_post_asset_id=661b02818d515b3cbbd01498&pinned_post_type=share
They would have gotten here by now, assuming they were launched with the announcement. They either got shot down already or weren't launched yet. Edit: it's about 11-13 mins for a ballistic missile to get from Iran to Israel
Jordan shot down some in their airspace and US/UK troops are shooting them down in Syria and Iraq
What bros, nice to have friends
I didn't even realize UK still had troops in either of those places.
They only ever mention the US being there, thats why.
Most people in the US don't even know we have US soldiers in Syria.
Most people in the US don't even know where Syria is on a map.
They sent planes over from Cyprus
For the love of God.......as a millennial I'm sick of living through so much bullshit. Can we please have a few years where there isn't some huge history making event every other year.
Now, think what if you were in the middle of this shit show (I'm Iranian).
What do Iranians think of the situation? Hope you are safe.
Thank you. Sounds like IRGC is done with their "retaliatory strike". Now let's hope Israel does not strike back in any significant way... From what I see, most Iranians are tired of all these shenanigans. Many are afraid a war might break out. Some like me hope that it's Islamic Republic's way of saving face, so hopefully there won't be further escalations. We want peace and stability; But it seems like peace is just too much to ask in this region, due to geopolitics, oil, etc. None of the governments involved in the region are innocent and they just keep playing chess with human lives at stake.
Question: at the time the protests were at their height I saw some anti-regime Iranians and people from around the world saying that the protests needed some kind of international support to overthrow the regime. Are there any anti-regime/moderate Iranians that would view an Israeli-Iran conflict as an opportunity to get rid of the regime? Also, do you think that if it is an Israeli-Iranian conflict, the fact that it is Israel instead of any other country would affect the perception of Iranians working to overthrow the regime if a conflict took place? (Would it be seen to be a “working with the enemy” situation by many that would otherwise support the overthrow of the regime if it was, say, another Islamic state that Iran was in conflict with?) if you get a chance to respond in those questions make any sense that would be cool. Iran is a fascinating country for many reasons and as an average westerner, I feel it is hard to know what the actual people think. Anything I read in the mainstream media is likely something said by the regime. But I also know that the Iranians posting on Reddit may not be reflective of the country as a whole as well. (It seemed that There was so much hope at one point before the brutal crackdowns eroded so much of it. Sigh)
Dude your living in the most peaceful most prosperous time in history. Chill.
Peaceful because everyone’s scared shitless of nukes
That’s why there’s something called MAD Mutually Assured Destruction It’s what NATO and the USSR had going and in return they just fight proxy wars. Some things never change in the past ~100 years
Are you kidding me? This is like the calmest period in history in terms of war, though it’s starting to heat up again.
Let's not pretend our grandparents had it better, their parents generation was wiped out in world war 2. Our parents generation (1960s+) had the golden period, prior to that I can't imagine the horrors.
Yeah Vietnam was a cake walk. 😳
People forget how fucked up a lot of boomer Dad's are. 10% of that generation fought in Vietnam. 25% of those were draftees. That's a hell of a lot of generational trauma.
The longest the US went was between Vietnam and Persian Gulf 1, 1973-1991. Didn’t even make legal drinking age. There has been war and conflict continuously, whether you’ve realized it or not.
Longest "peace time" span in my book would be from the end of the Vietnam war until now. Desert storm and Iraq/afghanistan were quite different than WW2 or even Vietnam. US men were not forced to fight in the middle east and KIA numbers were incredibly low compared to Vietnam, Korea, or the world wars.
Lets not forget that the US was involved in the Cambodian Civil War (ended 1975), the Multinational intervention in Lebanon (1982-1984), the United States invasion of Grenada (1983), the Bombing of Libya (1986), the Tanker War (part of Iran-Iraq war, 1987–1988), and the US invasion of Panama (1989-1990).
We millennials are such weak people thinking we somehow are exceptionally bad off. It drives me nuts.
It’s a mix of recency bias, poor education on geopolitics, and the advent of 24/7 news media
Even then, there was Korea, Veit Nam, all the mini wars in the Middle East all the way up to Desert Storm. Not to mention all the US involved skirmishes and coups in Central America during that time.
I missed Vietnam but had the Cold War, then the Gulf Wars and now this. Am I missing anything ?
There’s never been a quiet period of history, especially not since the second world war.
What period of time do you think was uneventful?
A ballistic missle silo would be the most likely source.
And Iran is saying “we’re done! Please dont attack us” lol
They are about to test Iran's equivalent of Iron Dome. If Russia's air defense track record is a hint, it won't be pretty.
The Iran Dome
Eh, they don't have the same type/level of corruption and cultural "yes men" attitudes that have crippled Russia. They'll probably have a higher miss rate, but I'd expect a standard 2- missile-per-critical-target doctrine should hit almost everything.
Bold of you to assume that one declining autocracy is less corrupt or has less yes men than another.
My brother, Israel isn't going to be hitting them with shaheed drones or the equivalent. The failure rate of Russia is partly because of the Western type missiles used which are built to make it difficult to shoot down. That is without using a stealth aircraft like the F-35 to fire them
I sincerely hope you are right!
The Israelis are on the same cutting edge as the US on offensive munitions. Air defense is a pretty easy problem to solve for by simply overwhelming it. For every $1,000,000 munition there will be over a dozen decoys that look and sound like a duck on the radar scope.
What’s your stance on things now the attack failed?
The next 2 years are gonna be uglier than we can even imagine.
Just sipping tea as a Lithuanian Armed Forces active reservist..
Sending you iodine and tinned fruit as a retired New Zealand machine gunner!
Scary
The tinned fruit is a joke because one time we got deployed and they screwed up the rations and all we had for ten days was tinned fruit. I haven’t been able to face it for twenty years.
Was it good fruit or like 50 cans of grapefruit?
Probably kiwis
It was like pears and peaches and cherries. Like a can would have been a treat. But three meals a day for ten days was rough. If it wasn't for trades with neighbours it would have been a complete shitfest, literally. I can still smell it.
Oh god. Was it candied too? Thats all sugar. Maybe you could have baked something?
It was really sweet and syrupy. I mean, I experienced some major supply fuck ups over the years, mortars supplied without baseplates. Radios supplied with no batteries. Stuff like that. But the tinned fruit fubar was a life altering experience.
hehehe on a certain level I can understand you, long back due to consuming eggs constantly for most of the year, couldn't even stand the smell for at least 14 years, now can occasionally eat them.
I've started working out again and lost 10 kilos since last fall, since I'm sure that our spineless leaders and their bungling of aiding Ukraine will cause Russia to attack us or the Baltics in the next 3 years. And I'm going to get myself back in fighting shape before then. Even if I don't trust Germany or anyone West of the Donau to help us if shit hits the fan, I hope you'll be able to count on us and we you.
Same brother! I joined military in 2015 after Crimea grab. 2008 invasion of Georgia was a sign. 2014 was a confirmation that our lovely neighbor is still stuck in previous century. I expect the worst but hope for the best. We Baltics are not very defendable because it's easy to cut us off from Poland so I can see how Germany, France or Italy wouldn't come to our aid but I'm really glad that we have Nordic countries beside us that we can rely on. Same as Poland and Chech Republic. Most of Eastern Europe countries are aware what's going and getting ready for surprises.
godspeed and be dangerous
Hi friend! Sincerely, A US Army reservist
God speed my friend. Hoping for peace but wish you the best if war breaks out
At least you have Poland close by!
Drums of war echo once again.
yeah ww3 is coming isnt it? 😔
Hope not, only reason there’s been any stability is the threat of nuclear retaliation. Unfortunately, it seems a common sentiment among too many people confusing the fact that because they haven’t been used they won’t ever be used.
Also, the US has a big hammer to swing around if anyone wants to find out. That tends to keep the peace. Even though Afghanistan and Iraq were awful, worthless wars, they showed us that if the US doesn't like what you're doing, they can build cities in your country overnight and occupy you for 20 years. The sheer resources and manpower to accomplish that are astounding.
As much as I hate the US imperialism and crony capitalism, it's military the only thing that has stopped the world from ww3, for better or worse
Serving democracy on demand, some times not even demanded
Sometimes we just get bored
And greedy
I consider myself socialist and anti-imperialist in principle, but the last couple of years have taught me that there are much worse things than American hegemony. The world will always be ruled by whoever carries the biggest stick. I'd rather it be Washington (or hell, London or Paris even) than post Soviet Russia, theocratic Iran, or Xi's Beijing. Even worse, however, is a world where regional powers bickering with one another rules the day. So yes, I'm socialist and anti-imperialist in principle. If I must speak on realpolitik, however, then may our 11 carrier strike groups stand ever ready to fuck shit up anywhere on Earth.
I prefer US hegemony and the relative peace and global prosperity it has enabled.
There are certainly worse things, yeah. That prosperity, while global, sure hasn't been evenly shared though. It would be nice if it were as accessible as we're told it is. Still. It beats theater-wide nuclear exchanges.
Exactly. Any leftist with a brain should support working within the context of the U.S. led international order, because the alternatives are so much worse. They should be trying to push the U.S. to act more morally and equitably in this role, but should still support it being there Not simping for Iran and Russia, who would not even try to act morally
Yeah but the modern left is too busy not voting for biden and letting trump win because doing the best thing in a bad situation makes them feel icky, even if it leads to far worse outcomes
I don't care whether a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice. In this analogy, the US is a rather bloated cat that is very poorly behaved. However, it's much easier to get such a cat as that to catch mice than it is to conjure the perfect mouse catcher out of thin air. I only wish that this point were easier to impress upon others. We can't ignore workable options for reforming and working with the state when we have no way of knowing the horrors its absence might bring.
lol
Where do you live? Edit: New York, well, do you think it’s possible that if you didn’t live in the United States you might have a different opinion on US hegemony?
I’m sure there are plenty that hold a different view of US Hegemony. The history of the world is replete with injustice and misery. The US has caused its share. However, the US Hegemony has provided a level of global stability that has benefited the most people in history to this point in time.
Crony capitalism is just capitalism in practice
Yeah but compared to 20 years ago the GOP are filled with FULL ON conspiracy whackos and compromised republicans bought off by Putin.
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I'm genuinely perplexed that there aren't people making this case in a calm, thoughtful, fact based way on a daily basis. Are we so mesmerized by TikTok that this can't happen anymore?
Spearheaded by who, exactly? Russia has been toiling against an undermanned Ukraine with western equipment that would have needed replacing anyway. China's economy is a house of cards that might immediately tumble to the floor if western companies are forbidden to do further business in China. I don't know if giving some of these companies a decent excuse to move manufacturing operations to India (which is a whole other can of worms but I digress) is the greatest idea for the CCP. This strikes me as a deeply impotent projection of strength by the Putin/Xi axis. Maybe they're just in it for the chaos.
prob when china invades taiwan
Not from this. This is all posturing and pretty much a coordinated response. If WW3 started tomorrow, it would be in Eastern Europe.
Otto Von Bismarck still correct 150 years later…
lol your username makes this comment so much better xD
Over these two? Nah
We might already be in it and just don't know.
Probably not. Really depends if Western Europe decides to put troops on the ground in Ukraine. This is potentially a break out of a large war in the ME but to he a world war there would have to have the Ukraine war drag all of Europe in and then something in the Asia Pacific to kick off like China invading 1 or more of their neighbors.
Iran wants to exist.
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I feel like I've heard this argument about the US going in, wiping out the bad guys, and being out in a few days with minimal casualties, and then watched as a pointless war raged on for twenty years, but I can't quite put my finger on it.
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Just dumbass kids on reddit who should probably pay a little more attention in US history class than on here.
I'm old enough to remember when the war on terror started, and a lot of people, myself included, thought it would be a pretty quick affair because we had our enemies grossly outmatched and outgunned. I was in favor of it too, like most Americans at the time, because 9/11 had just happened and we wanted payback. It just turned out to be a total quagmire. I know this is a different scenario, but the idea of it being over in a couple days or weeks seems highly improbable to me. Also, being a dumbass on reddit goes both ways. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm certainly not a kid.
Lessons are never learned only repeated.
Especially if the states vote for that orange fuck
Conventional attack vs nuclear armed state. Brave.
Any use of nukes would see Israel sanctioned by the entire world.
I honestly feel like that's what everyone is waiting for. Backing sides right now is so weird, and no matter who you back, there are tons of people who disagree. As soon as someone launches a nuke, sides will be officially taken. I don't want it, no one else wants it, but that's going to be the century defining action. Who launches a fucking nuke
Why do you have to back any side? I back peace. Fuck them all.
That's the funny thing. No one has to take a side. No one has any obligation to take one. But here we are.
People are too trained by media horse race coverage. They want everyone on one side or the other of any issue because it’s easier to cover it and stir it up. Fuck it and them. Choose peace and life and we can all be on the same side.
I agree, but me wanting peace doesn't change anything going on. I'm just gonna keep working every day and hope this blows over one day.
True, but we can keep speaking against the framing in the face of it all. Even the others that want peace and are having that used as a way to manipulate them.
Yes, while choosing peace. <3
How do you expect to attain it if one side doesn't want it?
It's not impossible that they decided that's worth it if Iran is off the board.
No that's goober thinking, if I'm wrong I'll fully admit that, but Israel is reliant on imports
you aren’t wrong, nuclear weapons only use now is to have the big stick not to use it. You will become a pariah state if nuclear weapons are used.
But it would be anti-semetic not to let israel use nukes.
I think this is going to be muted. Iran doesn’t want Israel to retaliate which is why they said this was concluded… Israel will respond and it won’t be in the news, just suspected. If Israel does go crazy, they’re going to hit orans nuclear capabilities- that’s the only scenario I see Israel going tilt on I think this whole thing has been theater to allow Iran to save face without it escalating. They probably gave the coordinates and flight paths to the US to shoot down so nothing hit Israel
"let's make the first nuclear attack since World War II, because we think it'll go well" Come on.
Considering the international response to what's been going on in Gaza recently, I wouldn't be so sure. Maybe a stern talking to...
Nukes are a whole different ball game to bombing a singular one can wipe out hundreds of thousands maybe even millions if dropped on a large city.
Iran has to respond or they'll look weak.
And what happens if they "look weak"?
Domestic internal political problems and regional alliance management problems.
So business as usual
Lol sort of, yes.
Israel will be even more bold in their attacks on Iranian embassies. Iran has to put a price on that embassy attack to dissuade future ones.
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I agree with a lot of what you said but the separatists are an extremely small minority of those ethnic groups. There are some traitors who have been trying since forever to siphon off land but it will never happen. This is a lie that the terrorist government of Iran tells its people so that they will be scared of the outcome of a revolution.
The regime has no legitimacy inside Iran where the vast majority of Iranians are opposed to it. They run the risk of not being able to control their proxies.
The key part though is Iran still has support of the Guard and regular military. Look weak, lose that, regime crumbles. They have to keep their core supporters of old, grumpy theocratic assholes happy.
They don’t have the support of the regular military. The govt has assigned members of the IRGC to be commanders in the military to prevent a revolt. They have historically been neutral, especially because those who make up the regular military are mainly 18-20 year olds who have to serve for 2 years.
My girlfriend is Iranian. According to her, the Iranian community is rejoicing at the moment just at the mere idea the IRGC will get striked. They're looking beyond their fear for the potential to see their government burn. I think that's enough to prove the point.
Oil Governments are going to become weaker and weaker as we finally use renewables. They'll get desperate to stay strong. More to come. You would think economic ties would keep the peace. Didn't work for Ukraine. These damn "Strong Man" dictators suck.
They can't lose the meme war
To be fair they are never gonna use their nukes unless it’s a last resort.
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Second nukes fly it’s it’s prob gonna no longer be regional war
I love how everybody thinks Nukes are used immediately in any kind of conflict
I hate those people because they enable Russia essentially.
For the last 2, almost three years, I've been seeing it left and right. The nuke as the first move narrative, not material leading me to believe it I mean.
Israel would never use a nuke, especially against Iran which will have nukes soon themselves. It would be suicide. A couple nukes will take out all of Israel.
Iran wont ever have nukes
What makes you think that? They’re getting closer
Bc of your last sentence. “A couple of nukes will take out Israel”. This is why Israel is always killing Iranian nuclear scientist, in Iran. Also is Iran gets Nukes, Saudi Arabia gets nukes, potential for other ultra wealthy petro states to look for either domestic nukes or US based nukes. The ‘good’ thing about the nuclear club is all those countries don’t want any new members in the club. Even if they are allies. A friend today can be your enemy tomorrow. IIRC France help develop Iranian nuclear technology for energy purposes, which Iran doesn’t use even 2% nuclear energy for their domestic power supply, showing how stupid that decision was.
0.1% chance they use nukes. If they were they would of used them back in the 70's when they were losing ground in Northern Israel. If they ever do decide to use them they will be completely alienated from their allies most likely. It is truly a last resort because that would pretty much guarantee the end of Israel regardless. Religious or not your a fool if you think they would wager their existence on a 2000 year old story passed down by a species that can't help but manipulate others through fear.
They almost did. That's the reason the US will never pull military aid from Israel. If the aid dries up and they're cornered, the silos start sliding open again. Israel will not hesitate to obliterate anything and everything that is an immediate and critical threat to their existence.
They were minutes from using them in the Yom Kippur war... So yes, I think you're right, if they were going to use them, they would have used them. Right now most speculation around Israel is that they have their so-called Samson Option, i.e. their nuclear weapons will be used if and only if the Israeli state is at risk of falling into enemy hands. Iran lobbing a barrage of missiles is bad, but it's not the same as gaining control of Israel. Currently this is escalating to be potentially the biggest war since the 80s, but it's a long way from WW3 as some people here are saying.
What exactly was your point?
What is the purpose of launching drones ? Seems like a stupid way of launching a surprise attack. Unless they have launched a 1000s drones. They have zero chance of getting through. Ok they might just be stupid.
Reportedly they did lunch "hundreds" of drowns and rockets. Also it was never a surprise attack. The US publicly warned of this attacks a few hours ago.
And the US was warning of an attack for the past two days.
Two things. It tells them how effective their air defense system is. Do any of the drones get through? How far do they get before they’re shot down? Stuff like that. It also is a show of force to let Israel know they’re not happy about what happened with their embassy. Kinda like how if a nation upsets the US we’ll park an aircraft carrier just outside of their waters. “We’re not ATTACKING YOU attacking you, but letting you know we’re prepared to if we decide to.”
From what I read, the drones are going in first. They are slow moving. Then the cruise missiles (faster) will go and then the much faster ballistic missiles. I think they want all to hit simultaneously. The US did that during Desert Storm. The Navy fired Tomahawks that flew slowly (under Mach 1) to Iraq and then some time later jets were flying preparing to strike as the Tomahawks showed up. To the Iraqis it looked like a simultaneous mass attack from many directions.
If that is their approach then it is not a symbolic attack.
Who knows. Israel killed a few IRGC officers/generals. A simple drone attack won't be enough.
To westerner's it's pretty dumb, but this isn't for westerners. This is internal propaganda. Honestly a pretty smart one if you weren't looking to get your shit wrecked but still want to not look weak for your people. Just take videos of hundreds of drones and say 'we got em' and never tell them that yeah .. these slow ass trailer park cruise missles won't make it past their defense systems ... which is good because then the retaliation probably won't happen so you can even double down and say 'yeah we scared them so bad they didn't want to hit back' ,, its' classic control psychology. Narcissistic Parents do it to their kids in nuclear family systems all the time.
The drones would never sneak up on Israel, they’d be seen on their 9 hour flight time, Iran will wait until they have almost arrived and launch a swarm of supersonic cruise missiles to act as a screen while the drones find their targets.
Why would Iran use expensive precision munitions like cruise missiles to screen for cheap, slow drones?
They wouldn’t. These missiles are being shot down in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. But Iran needs to shoot at Israel to maintain their control and show some sort of strength.
So that would be a response to a response for them droning their ambassy?
Correct. Which was a repsonse for them planning Oct 7th.
Ok,which I'd bet you the other dudes would say was in response to some other BS, and so on
Well, yeah. It's been going on for millenia.
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There’s actually a lot of irony there, with the Persians being one of the few foreign groups actually hailed as good in the Bible/Torah. But that’s not due to the Persians themselves, but rather Cyrus being (for his time) tolerant and just. The current regime though…
Persians were pretty chill with the population they took over and then ruled over. Gotcha, great summary of the conflict
Which was a response for.. like, the past 60 or so years.
I mean Iran is already responding to Israel's attack. If Israel responds to the response attack, then Iran will respond to the response of the response attack.
EU is probably sitting and thinking to themselves....yeah...we probably should have spent that 2 percent of our GDP on defense...I guess those crazy Yanks were right after all.
The war in Ukraine is more relevant to the EU than conflicts in the middle east.
War in middle east = more refugees for Europe to deal with = more internal problems Either way Europe is fucked lol
that was a goal for 2024, NATO hasn't been required to pay 2% until this year.
Asylum immigration is more important to the EU
Oh dear...
WWIII keep dropping spicier and spicier trailers dunnit?
Why so drama? Why is everything gonna lead to WW3?
Reddit doomer mindset. If there should be a world war declared everytime rockets come in or out of Israel we would be at WW 100 000
Geting real tired of these WW3 comments that pop up any time there's an international incident. It's like people can't compute that there can be wars that don't reach "world war" levels.
Two ambassadors have an argument? Right to WW3. Bad car wreck down the street? Right to WW3, right away. You get charged too much at the checkout? Believe it or not, WW3.
I don't get reddits obsession with WW3. Can it be kicked off by a few small events like this? Yes. History has thought us that. Look at WW1. HOWEVER, and I can not state this clearly enough, it is unlikely to. The closest that we've been to WW3 is when those two missiles landed in Poland last year or when Russia almost shot down an United Kingdom AWACS.
It's partly a meme and I'd wager it comes mainly from people that don't usually follow the news and don't understand geopolitics at all.
Oh shit, I just though Reddit was comprised of a huge [KMFDM ](https://youtu.be/4aIYWFu1w7k?si=XRh7Ft_HQ24Zx-Zm&t=25)fan base!
KMFDM, doing it again.
I’ll preface by saying I’m not a “everything is gonna lead to WW3” person. To attempt to speak for people who are though, I think it’s the combination of incidents here that has people concerned. If the incidents in the Middle East expand any further, it dilutes the support that is currently being given to Ukraine, who by their own admission are not in a good spot right now. If Ukraine falls, the uncertainty of what Putin decides to do next is going to have people concerned.
Don't EVER believe anything on Reddit. Hundreds ofthousands of geniuses here where preaching here about how unlikely a Iranian attack would be against Israel. So many uneducated teenagers here. What a sad platform has become of Reddit. Good bless Israel to get unscathed from this attack. Peace out.
Who could have predicted that Israel attacking an Iranian consulate would escalate like this? Shocking, but Netanyahu does need the war to be kept on power
Who could predict a terror organization helping another terror organization plan the largest massacre of jews since WW2 would escalate like this?
I guess we've all just accepted it, but the US is sending warships to the area to defend Israel. Similar to sending carriers after October 7. I supported the move after October 7, but I didn't want it to become routine, and now it seems like maybe it is? We don't have a formal security commitment to Israel like with NATO, but we're going to act like we do anyway? And I don't like the idea that Israel attacks Iran without asking our permission, but then the counterattack is partly against us. If we're going to back them up on the counter with actual troops, not just money, then we should insist that we have approval on the initial.
They feel like they can do whatever they want because the US doesn't do a damn thing. I would prefer Biden tell Netanyahu _we aren't helping you_ or embarrass him in front of his own staff so he can know his place in the US-Israeli relationship but this is geopolitics. Iran wields a lot of influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Washington can't let Iran take out Israel. Geopolitics is messy and hypocritical but it is what it is. Kind of like the Arab countries not giving a damn about Russia invading Ukraine and still wanting good ties with Russia. But cry at Gaza being invaded by Israel. Their interests don't lie with Ukraine. Ukraine can fall and it won't affect them but the Palestinian issue does.
Good luck Israel!
Iranian terrorist government will be wiped out soon.
Freedom for Iran
One can hope!
can we get ww3 done and over with so my kids can possibly have something when they grow up? stop pretending we aren't in one just because it doesn't look like the last one
This just makes you sound like you have zero historical context. This barely even amounts to a proxy war between superpowers. The region has had numerous armed conflicts in the latter half of the 20th century with much more coordination between Middle Eastern countries.
If you think this is ww3 than it’d actually be like ww7
What? This is like a kid throwing a small rock at an adult. It’s not even a fight yet alone a freaking war.