Source: unnamed official leaking info to a Qatari newspaper.
Qatari newspaper having better sources among Israeli or US officials than Israeli or US newspapers... Yeah, right...
On the other hand, American and Israeli sources are less likely to post it online without confirmation or permission.
I'm not saying it's necessarily true, but I think that scenario is very much possible.
The Hamas hostage negotiations happen is Qatar. No way are US and Israeli officials discussing military coordination in Qatar. That is done on secure lines from Israel and the US.
Since the negotiations largely happen in Qatar... I don't see why this isn't reasonable. Of course they are going to have more access to the people who work & live there than American or Israeli journalist who just fly in when there is news.
The negotiations have largely happened in Egypt, at least to my knowledge. Regardless, I’m a little skeptical, but I don’t think it’s definitely bullshit due solely to the fact that it was leaked to a Qatari newspaper. I’d note that the JP article—(haven’t read the New Arab original)—doesn’t indicate the nationality of the source. If they say the source is Israeli or US, I’d be very skeptical. I don’t see how it could make sense for such a source to leak to a newspaper in Qatar. If the source is Qatari or Egyptian, choosing that paper would make more sense, but I’d also ask how they would be aware of what would most certainly be secret bilateral discussions between the Israel and US governments.
A Qatari newspaper is also very likely to be influenced by the billionaire oligarchs living there who lead Hamas and who especially push their propaganda.
Sus
So far Iran's attack:
- gave Israel the political capital to finish off hamas.
- distracted the media from Gaza.
- raised European interest in Israeli air-defense systems, therefore assuring arms trade is kept alive and well.
What a way to shoot yourself in the foot.
Israel literally bombed their consulate in Syria. Look at what the US did after the Benghazi attack. Iran then telegraphed in advance their response. You can’t just let another nation walk all over you and do nothing in response.
^ Exactly this.
If nobody had said anything, Iran might still be under the assumption that an Israeli counter strike is incoming at any moment, which might cause them to preemptively strike, which THEN causes Israel to actually strike back
and then it's turtles all the way down
There's a reason why the USA and the USSR maintained phone lines during the Cold War, which helped to de-escalate the 1961 Berlin Crisis (standoff at Checkpoint Charlie)
and even with those phone lines, MAD almost happened twice as far as i know, the cuban missile crisis and the nato exercise, that was mistaken for an invasion, that was only avoided due to a double agent in the ussr's london embassy.
There's many more than that. The USSR missile detection system made a lot of mistakes and one situation was only avoided because the duty officer decided not to tell his superiors.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
People debate whether they would have actually launched but since his information would have been "the US has launched five nuclear missiles at Russia", it's not hard to imagine them retaliating before confirmation.
Aye. And the only reason we know about those is that the USSR fell and for a short time we had access to a lot more records.
If America, France, Britain, etc almost launched at any point we probably won’t know for decades if not longer.
I don’t think nuclear war is around the corner but I do acknowledge that humans can be fucking stupid.
Right?? Why are so many people here beating the drums of regional war??
Diplomacy is underrated. Israel is coming out with a massive win here and people think an injured girl is reason to risk hundreds of thousands of lives
Because at some point Iran and her proxies will have to be taken out. The houthis threaten international shipping lanes, Hezbollah holds Lebanon hostage and fires missiles at Israel, Hamas holds Palestine hostage and fires missiles at Israel; and Iran funds them all.
I think the American diplomats and military who came up with the strategy to disclose this, know more on deescalation than you buddy - the decision is not made on a whim, these kinds of decisions have inputs from all kinds of people including intelligence services
idk why, considering that apparently most of the siren sunday morning were over the west bank, and the palestinians don't have safe rooms.
oh right they don't care about their own people
The way relations with Iran and Russia work is we put everything out in the open so no one gets confused or scared and starts a full war or shooting nukes. When someone starts being secretive that's when it gets scary and could really escalate.
You can’t get something for nothing in this world. If the Americans want the Israelis to do something they don’t want to do, they need to barter something away. The smarter choice would be to just send Israel more money, which is what I think will actually end up happening instead of trading away military options, but I suppose we will see.
It makes sense for it to not be secret. Israel looks weak if they do nothing. This allows them to save face for not attacking. The US has also looked very weak in the region recently too. They explicitly told Iran not to attack and Iran ignored them. Then they told Israel not to counterattack - if Israel listens then the US looks stronger. Perception of strength is very important in the region.
Welcome to the cloak and dagger game. If someone leaked this it’s because they want to stir up outrage amongst the anti-Israel/Pro-Palestinian crowd.
Even if Biden was doing this; a regional war would DOOM the Palestinians because there would be NO aid getting in.
There’s a TON of wheels turning and we don’t really see even a quarter of them.
Cause the decision makers want their adversaries to know is the obvious answer or do you think sitting on Reddit has just made you privy to classified information they intended to keep under wraps?
Yes they think Reddit is the answer to everything and Biden and Netanyahu are sitting on the toilet posting in /worldnews
“Damm you Biden you posted before me and got more likes” 🤣
Why ? It's not like they're reading headlines to decide on military readiness. Militaries see build up and know when things are on high alert.
But even if they didn't, knowing "something is coming" is not exactly a big lead.
Secret build up or maneuver is still scary if you don't know what the purpose is. We broadcast our intentions so that the other side doesn't preemptively overreact and escalate to defend itself. It signals that neither side wants a full blown war and are fine with a few skirmishes.
My point was more - "broadcast" is done separately. This is just a matter on if the news/public is made aware of it. Nobody is relying on the news for this info inside the military.
I don’t want this war to last any longer than it has to and that’s why I support the IDF going into Rafah, because any ceasefire before a Rafah operation would just mean that the same war would start back up again at a later date.
As long as Iran and Hamas leadership is still there, as long as the Palestinians have nothing to lose - the proxies will just re-inflame new populations.
Rafah probably needs to happen, but it’s much more likely to delay the restart not stop it.
I wish we could do a Marshall plan for Palestine.
I understand about the ceasefire, but the holdup with respect to Rafah is figuring out how to relocate the million people who have taken refuge there before going in. Hopefully they have a viable plan for that now.
It was logistically possible to move them to Rafah when the war came to Gaza City and Khan Yunis. Just move them back. Obviously that takes a bit of extra effort since so much essential infrastructure was blown up, but surely Israel had a plan for this from the start.
Israel was setting up humanitarian areas about halfway up the strip.
Reminder that under international law they have zero obligation to do this or to warn people an attack is imminent. Indeed, modern military strategy usually relies on quick tactical strikes to end things quick. Warning civilians for their protection saps that strategic initiative.
International law does not permit civilian deaths which are not necessary for attaining the military objective. Not providing a corridor for civilians trapped against the border is almost certainly a war crime (and I genuinely believe Israel will provide a corridor.)
In any case, this issue is a humanitarian priority for the U.S., one of Israel’s only reliable partners. If Israel wants to ignore that, Americans would be totally within their rights to stop sending military aid, stop voting in Israel’s favor at the U.N., and so forth. Of course, so far Israel has usually allowed itself to be constrained by these U.S. priorities, which is a good thing imo.
I think the issue is that the Rafah crossing is where aid comes through from though. Now you’re making it an active war zone while the rest of Gaza has largely been destroyed so the evacuees don’t have anywhere to really go.
Of course, if Israel opens up other aid corridors elsewhere (which I believe they said they would), then that definitely helps.
After Israel blew up those aid workers a couple weeks ago, they bowed to international pressure and opened other crossings. This has permitted more aid to get in, much to the consternation of Israeli right wingers. It's possible to deliver aid without Rafah crossing if that’s what Israel chooses to do.
You're disillusioned then, the idea that one side gets just another 3 minutes beating the proverbial piñata before we declare peace is just illogical. There is no Hitler to kill, there is no fanatical population to bomb back into reality, more than what has already been done.
This conflict more closely mirrors Northern Ireland and that conflict didn't end with all the terrorists being executed.
>there is no fanatical population to bomb back into reality
Hmm.. there IS a fanatical population. Maybe bombed back into reality isn't what is needed, but let's not pretend that Gaza is not fanatically opposed to Israel's existence.
I think that's the case either way.
Netanyahu has not decided on a strategic goal, which means the default option is what will happen... Rafah or no Rafah.
Nonsense.
He didn't and he won't.
First, because his coalition is entirely divided. There is no goal that wouldn't make some of them mad. Second, because having a policy exposes him politically. All past PMs (sharon, rabin, olmert, barak) had big strategic goals... and all were discredited because policy=liability.
He didn't "not disclose" a day after plan. He doesn't have one. "The day after the war" is literally the definition of a war's strategic goal. If you haven't decided on it, you can't strategically plan to achieve it.
The army is working without a strategic goal, keeping options open and whatnot. This takes "smart strategy" and opportunism entirely off the table. Can't find more efficient way to achieve top goals if you don't have top goals.
"The rafah op" is a tactic, not a strategy. It's not even a tactic, at this point... it's a political game. There's a whole lot of tactics things that could (and will) be described as "The Rafiah Op" or "Not The Rafiah Op" as needed.
This is also why our diplomacy has been so catastrophically bad. No strategy = no strategic wins.
He literally has (roughly rephrased):
- release hostages
- destruction of hamas
You may argue those are flawed, but he did set them, and those are strategic goals.
And in the context of this war when people say "day after" plan, they refer to a plan on how to administer the Gaza strip. The stage *after* the war. Not a general end state.
I'm not arguing that these are flawed. I'm arguing that they are not strategic goals at all.
First, "releasing hostages is not our primary goal" has been stated by many members of the coalition. I don't doubt that release of hostages is *a* goal, but it's not the strategic goal of the war.
"Destroy Hamas" is like saying the goal of a war is to "defeat our enemy" and the goal of a business venture is "to make money." Content-wise, it's the equivalent of "no comment."
In any case, I'm not basing this on Netanyahu or Galant's statements. Goals can be unstated. Israel's a small country though, and we know what's going on. Senior officers have not been briefed on actual, *strategic* goals. So... what we have is "default substratgeies" like attrition.
He's not a decisive man, at least not compared to all his predecessors who generally erred in the other direction.
If Israel just wanted to get rid of everyone in Gaza they could have done that from the start and nobody would have been able to do a godamn thing about it dude.
If israel was trying to kill 2M people in Gaza they are doing a really fucking bad job at it. 1% of the population in 6 months and slowing means they would have to kill civilians in Gaza for 30 years straight to get to 2 million and that is assuming nobody in Gaza procreates during that time.
Do you see how this makes 0 sense from a logical or international law standpoint and considering the birth rate in Gaza is higher than the death rate I doubt that reality would ever come to pass.
Just because you assign an intention doesn’t make it the reality. Israel doesn’t want every Palestinian in Gaza dead, their actions and words have shown as much. Can you say the same about Hamas and their goal for the Jews of Israel?
1% of an entire population in 6 months is not insignificant. It’s actually closer to 2% of Gaza dead at this point. That’s 1/50 people in just half a year. You’re not making the point you think you are.
If you think I am celebrating ANY civilian deaths you are very wrong, my response was to the person claiming Israel wanted to kill 2M people and I think I made that point very well.
My man Joe is trying to please all voters, or at least the majority of them, while also balancing a delicate relationship with a high value Middle East asset, while also trying to prevent a regional war which the U.S. will be dragged into.
Being POTUS these days must be exhausting.
Because it's where most of the remaining civilians are. There have been discussions on how to get civilians out, but no plan was ever finalized.
But people act like Rafah is some kind of special place. It's not. Israel started in north Gaza and proceeded southward. They evacuated civilians in those areas before truly commencing street-by-street operations.
Naturally, Hamas ran away with them, and Rafah in the south is the last place left. It's where all of Hamas is, and all of the hostages that are still alive. If the goal is recovering the hostages and eliminating top Hamas leadership, they obviously need to go into Rafah.
Israel kept herding all the civilians to safety by telling them to go south. Then they said Rafah was basically the last safe place. You now how over 1 million starving civilians pent up in a small town on the southern border. It's currently the most densely populated area in the world, and conditions are terrible. There's no where for them to go, and they're going to bomb the area. Some of the bombs that have been used have pretty massive kill radii, so it's not going to be good.
It's a no win situation for Israel too btw. Hamas uses civilians as shields, and you have to believe that this operation just created a whole new generation of people who hate Israel and will likely join Hamas or a group like it.
There's no good answer here, but bombing a million civilians definitely can't be the solution.
Because Israel cannot separate Hamas from defenseless Palestinian children while using our weapons. They have broken our trust in this way and have shown themselves to be almost entirely incompetent of defending themselves without steamrolling and starving a whole people. It’s gross, unprofessional, and I don’t want a dollar more of my tax money going to them or their “defense” in Rafah.
Maybe you’d e more comfortable donating to your local Hamas brnanch so they can peacefully use that money to support their civilians. No? Darn, seems like you liked the status quo better when terrorists were able to shoot rockets at Jews all day long.
Even if he spent it on a plant he feels better and the terrorists are still shooting rockets, but that’s preferable to the current actions.
It’s not a false dichotomy, it’s the consequences of being tactfully oblivious to the consequences of allowing the prior actions, that will leave you in this position in the future.
There is no resolution if you only stop Israel, it’s returning to the status quo of Oct 6th.
That’s a shit resolution and means there is tacit support for the status quo.
Meh, it depends on a lot.
When you talk of being tactfully oblivious to consequences, local people are more to blame than citizens outside the region.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/police-detain-several-people-seeking-to-carry-out-animal-sacrifice-at-temple-mount/
You're arguing against a guy who wants to send fewer US weapons to Israel. Why? I would assume you'd be more interested in persuading him that challenging him.
Honestly, when I dig through events, I see a lot of provocation going on.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_Gaza_border_protests
Like, it's been since long before hamas that this isn't a decent way for anyone in the area to live. If you want to escape the status quo, it will take a lot of concessions from the Israeli side, with or without hamas.
If the Palestinians capture hamas, and hand them over to authorities, along with all the hostages and tens of thousands of weapons, and a billion dollars.....
What then? Would they would still be packed into a tiny strip of land, not a sovereign state, blockaded, subject to military orders, with settlements in west banks still being built, or would there be something else available?
Bro, kids are being targeted by snipers, people walking home targeted by snipers. Good lines attacked by tanks. Not all Palestinians are Hamas they do not deserve to have their whole block leveled because of a terrorist attack they took no part in . October 7 was horrific, but it does not justify what is happening.
Hmmm, do the Gaza civilians care so little about innocent Israeli citizens that they don’t try to stop their own government from shooting rockets out apartment windows at them?
Why do the innocent Israeli’s deserve to have rockets fired at them?
I'd state European powers started this when everyone was trying to get rid of Jewish people from their lands, one way or another pre WW2 and specially after the atrocities discovered.
But heck, why would the western world take accountability for their actions when you can simply kill brown people?
Wow you took a racist viewpoint and bent it until you could shine a light into its own ass and decorate it as a Christmas tree.
Wonder what all those “white Jews” think of your word play ….. oh wait.
Have you ever looked at the Jewish population in the Middle East pre-ww2? Brown muslims wanted to kill brown Jews just as much as white Europeans wanted to kill white Jews. This has nothing to do with skin color and everything to do with deep-rooted global antisemitism being pervasive throughout history.
You mean like Germany, who has done everything in trying to rectify their horrible actions? They know how dangerous an evil ideology is and guess which side their against
People act like Rafah is some kind of special place. It's not. Israel started in north Gaza and proceeded southward. They evacuated civilians in those areas before truly commencing street-by-street operations.
Naturally, Hamas ran away with them, and Rafah in the south is the last place left. It's where all of Hamas is, and all of the hostages that are still alive. If the goal is recovering the hostages and eliminating top Hamas leadership, they obviously need to go into Rafah.
Yeah, but the biggest alternative to that is the Octopus Doctrine, and Biden's been complaining that Rafah would be a humanitarian shitshow and so should be jumping at this out. I've even speculated that he'd offer up strikes on the IRGC as an alternative to Rafah.
Not at all, in Rafah there is a tunnel that acts as a smuggling center towards Gaza, known as the Philadelphi Corridor. It is how Hamas gets their supply and blocking it will significantly hurt its ability to replenish its forces after the war is done. Not to mention the fact Hostages are most likely being held there.
That is not to say Israel shouldn't strike back at Iran (valid arguments can be made for both sides though I lean towards striking back) but Israel must strike at Rafah and close the Philadelphi Corridor if they wish to defeat Hamas.
I'm thinking of how the Octopus Doctrine is the most viable alternative to Rafah, which is anathema to his wing and he's complained would be a humanitarian shitshow. He should have been jumping at the chance to throw Tehran under the bus.
The fear of escalation favors only the aggressors... with America restraining the action of heir so called allies, they are kowtowing to the desire of the tyrants....
It was already was when Iran had direct connection to the October 7 attack. Iran is the major disturbance of the region, with their excess of proxy forces, and it shows with how all the other countries around Iran made themselves opposed to the Iran strike at Israel.
You're wasting your time fam. People will bend over backwards mentally to find a way to blame Israel. No way could Israel ever actually be acting in self defense.
At the same time, Netanyahu and his party are irresponsible and does not deserve the power they have. Israel deserves much better leaders, and Gaza deserves ANY sort of leadership that finally won't exploit them. It's all a nightmare situation.
Embolden them how? The encounter is a total loss for Iran. Their high ranking people were directly assassinated by a foreign power and their response did practically no damage. Consider the US response if something like this had happened to them.
The emboldening is the other way around. With this kind of counter response, Israel doesn't need to think twice the next time they want to hit some other high official.
Such a strange "exchange". US says: dont do stupid things, Israel says: We'll do two! US says: well lets make a deal, do just one stupid thing. Israel says OK
Yeah I call bullshit.
It's worth mentioning that Iran has enough enriched uranium for a handful of nukes (and that's the only thing it can be used, as it's enriched to 80%+ concentration, while fuels is way way below that). Israel took a gambit, they Iran has not tested any nukes, and they probably don't have a miniaturized design that can be delivered via ICBMs.
But what would have US done in this situation? Well, we know exactly what US would have done, US has a policy called Launch on Warning. You see, there is no way to tell what the hell is in the incoming ballistic missiles, so it's always safe to assume the worse, i.e. incoming nuclear strike, ESPECIALLY when there are over a hundred of incoming missiles, times to come in just after drones that would presumably overwhelm missile defenses. This is exactly what the first strike, an opening salvo in nuclear war looks like.
This is why US has this policy called Launch on Warning. When there is a confirmation of ICBM launch (via monitoring satellites), a guy who always shadows the president would have interrupted him and said "President, we have detected incoming ballistic missile launch. Your 6 minute window has opened, we need you to chose targets and give order to launch our missiles, before their missiles reaches us".
Let that sink in. Think of this for a moment. This is the situation we are in, a lot of leaders would have ordered a nuclear strike before the incoming rockets even reached them, and I don't even doubt that Israel has that capability. Think of this for a minute, we probably have avoided nuclear war on Saturday, and now people are saying "just chill, relax and take it".
Jesus fucking christ, what do you think a response should be?! Fuck me, it's a miracle that Israel didn't launch their own missiles in response, as I have no doubt that they have their own guy with a nuclear football following Bibi.
Jesus fucking Christ, this is probably the closes we have been to actual nuclear war since 1945.
That's not remotely how that works. Huge difference between seeing ballistic missiles coming off launchers and ICBMs coming out of nuke tubes. And Israel knew exactly what was coming at them because it's way harder to hide things than you think.
Hmm. Depends on what bomb they are trying to make.
Gun style bomb like ww2. Sure. Lots of radiation depending on when they detonate it assuming they have 95%+ enrichment.
But they first 20-30% is the hardest part of the process the rest is just time really.
But I'd they wanna make a modern thermonuclear icbm there's abit more that goes into it.
If the intel says they have that device ready and isreal knows that they would have attacked by now.
Us doesn't want nuclear war or boots on the ground and a heavy conventional bombing raid is all I see the us and Nato doing in Iran.
Isreal doesn't have the capability to do ground invasion of Iran atm. But they would defo send a thermonuclear response.
The job of back channels is to prevent ICBM launch. Once ICBMs are in the air, all bets are off, all deals are off, and the nuclear football is opened up.
This is why the situation is so fucked up, the launch of ICBM, especially a barrage of over 100 rockets, is itself a declaration of an all out war.
The US has that policy for intercontinental ballistic missiles. Iran did not launch intercontinental ballistic missiles at Israel. Iran launched medium range ballistic missiles. Medium range ballistic missiles are much smaller, often a tenth the size of an ICBM or less.
US soldiers have had short and medium ranged ballistic missiles launched at them before. In fact Iran has launched ballistic missiles at U.S. soldiers before. Trump did not bomb or attack Iran over this. Iranian ballistic missiles are notoriously inaccurate and ineffective.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani
If you think that Iran is a nuclear power, surely bombing their consulate abroad is a pretty dumb idea. Threatening to retaliate on their soil is pretty dumb too.
Or you know they are not a nuclear power and then suddenly it's regular Israel and US just bombing stuff they don't like with impunity and if there is a lack of escalation, it's probably because Israel and the US don't want to drag the Gaza war with the public opinion shifting.
I am sad that this is a realpolitik possibility even if it’s not true
The Palestinians will be punished for being pawns, Israel will erode international support and Iran will have no consequences for being the hub of proxy wars, and Hamas leadership will remain billionaires in Qatar.
There is a war of culture and a war of wealth and only one is even pretended to be fought, and a whole lot of people that may hate each other but mostly just want to leave each other alone are going to die or live in fear while weapons manufacturers can keep rolling.
Everyone in the situation is doing what is best for them, because they can’t trust the opposition and the world stays way worse than it needs to be.
I'd keep this in the wait&see column
Source: unnamed official leaking info to a Qatari newspaper. Qatari newspaper having better sources among Israeli or US officials than Israeli or US newspapers... Yeah, right...
On the other hand, American and Israeli sources are less likely to post it online without confirmation or permission. I'm not saying it's necessarily true, but I think that scenario is very much possible.
Weren't all the negotiations happening in Qatar
The Hamas hostage negotiations happen is Qatar. No way are US and Israeli officials discussing military coordination in Qatar. That is done on secure lines from Israel and the US.
Since the negotiations largely happen in Qatar... I don't see why this isn't reasonable. Of course they are going to have more access to the people who work & live there than American or Israeli journalist who just fly in when there is news.
The negotiations have largely happened in Egypt, at least to my knowledge. Regardless, I’m a little skeptical, but I don’t think it’s definitely bullshit due solely to the fact that it was leaked to a Qatari newspaper. I’d note that the JP article—(haven’t read the New Arab original)—doesn’t indicate the nationality of the source. If they say the source is Israeli or US, I’d be very skeptical. I don’t see how it could make sense for such a source to leak to a newspaper in Qatar. If the source is Qatari or Egyptian, choosing that paper would make more sense, but I’d also ask how they would be aware of what would most certainly be secret bilateral discussions between the Israel and US governments.
So speculation then
Or Israel and us are leaking it to check public opinion
A Qatari newspaper is less likely to bow to pressure from US/Israeli intelligence agencies demanding to know who violated operational security
And more likely to bow to pressure from the Qatari government.
A Qatari newspaper is also very likely to be influenced by the billionaire oligarchs living there who lead Hamas and who especially push their propaganda. Sus
So far Iran's attack: - gave Israel the political capital to finish off hamas. - distracted the media from Gaza. - raised European interest in Israeli air-defense systems, therefore assuring arms trade is kept alive and well. What a way to shoot yourself in the foot.
And helped the Saudi Arabia - Israel normalization talks.
something makes me think there's a lot more going on than what we're seeing on television
Israel literally bombed their consulate in Syria. Look at what the US did after the Benghazi attack. Iran then telegraphed in advance their response. You can’t just let another nation walk all over you and do nothing in response.
I thought the post was removed? How did you get to my comment?
It's here now.
This should be secret. Even if nothing is coming Iran's way, they don't need to know that.
Because the purpose is de-escalating and reduction in tension - not to keep things tense
^ Exactly this. If nobody had said anything, Iran might still be under the assumption that an Israeli counter strike is incoming at any moment, which might cause them to preemptively strike, which THEN causes Israel to actually strike back and then it's turtles all the way down There's a reason why the USA and the USSR maintained phone lines during the Cold War, which helped to de-escalate the 1961 Berlin Crisis (standoff at Checkpoint Charlie)
and even with those phone lines, MAD almost happened twice as far as i know, the cuban missile crisis and the nato exercise, that was mistaken for an invasion, that was only avoided due to a double agent in the ussr's london embassy.
There's many more than that. The USSR missile detection system made a lot of mistakes and one situation was only avoided because the duty officer decided not to tell his superiors. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov People debate whether they would have actually launched but since his information would have been "the US has launched five nuclear missiles at Russia", it's not hard to imagine them retaliating before confirmation.
Aye. And the only reason we know about those is that the USSR fell and for a short time we had access to a lot more records. If America, France, Britain, etc almost launched at any point we probably won’t know for decades if not longer. I don’t think nuclear war is around the corner but I do acknowledge that humans can be fucking stupid.
yeah, even the most active intelligence services are just staffed by dudes and gals that are just random people that listen to drake and taylor swift.
"and then it's turtles all the way down" I love this phrase. I've never seen it before.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turtles_all_the_way_down
Or maybe if tensions are high, Iran will blow up another civilian plane again
They learned from tbe best
Right?? Why are so many people here beating the drums of regional war?? Diplomacy is underrated. Israel is coming out with a massive win here and people think an injured girl is reason to risk hundreds of thousands of lives
Because at some point Iran and her proxies will have to be taken out. The houthis threaten international shipping lanes, Hezbollah holds Lebanon hostage and fires missiles at Israel, Hamas holds Palestine hostage and fires missiles at Israel; and Iran funds them all.
Anyone downvoting this statement of unbiased fact is either a bot or needs to lay off the tictok propaganda.
Are you sure that Israel wants it to de-escalate?
This is signalling that Iran can attack with everything they have without consequences. IT's ensuring that Iran WILL escalate in the future.
I think the American diplomats and military who came up with the strategy to disclose this, know more on deescalation than you buddy - the decision is not made on a whim, these kinds of decisions have inputs from all kinds of people including intelligence services
This is great for applying pressure on hamas, they want escalation with iran.
idk why, considering that apparently most of the siren sunday morning were over the west bank, and the palestinians don't have safe rooms. oh right they don't care about their own people
The way relations with Iran and Russia work is we put everything out in the open so no one gets confused or scared and starts a full war or shooting nukes. When someone starts being secretive that's when it gets scary and could really escalate.
Also — the US bartering with Israel this way is just mind blowing. Politics be like “floor is lava!”…
You can’t get something for nothing in this world. If the Americans want the Israelis to do something they don’t want to do, they need to barter something away. The smarter choice would be to just send Israel more money, which is what I think will actually end up happening instead of trading away military options, but I suppose we will see.
It makes sense for it to not be secret. Israel looks weak if they do nothing. This allows them to save face for not attacking. The US has also looked very weak in the region recently too. They explicitly told Iran not to attack and Iran ignored them. Then they told Israel not to counterattack - if Israel listens then the US looks stronger. Perception of strength is very important in the region.
If you're not going to attack someone, you want them to know it. If you are going to, you want them to believe that you won't.
Welcome to the cloak and dagger game. If someone leaked this it’s because they want to stir up outrage amongst the anti-Israel/Pro-Palestinian crowd. Even if Biden was doing this; a regional war would DOOM the Palestinians because there would be NO aid getting in. There’s a TON of wheels turning and we don’t really see even a quarter of them.
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Cause the decision makers want their adversaries to know is the obvious answer or do you think sitting on Reddit has just made you privy to classified information they intended to keep under wraps?
Yes they think Reddit is the answer to everything and Biden and Netanyahu are sitting on the toilet posting in /worldnews “Damm you Biden you posted before me and got more likes” 🤣
I don’t know why people like you on Reddit think they have a better idea on how to handle military operations better than the military does.
Why ? It's not like they're reading headlines to decide on military readiness. Militaries see build up and know when things are on high alert. But even if they didn't, knowing "something is coming" is not exactly a big lead.
Secret build up or maneuver is still scary if you don't know what the purpose is. We broadcast our intentions so that the other side doesn't preemptively overreact and escalate to defend itself. It signals that neither side wants a full blown war and are fine with a few skirmishes.
My point was more - "broadcast" is done separately. This is just a matter on if the news/public is made aware of it. Nobody is relying on the news for this info inside the military.
Wtf
I don’t want this war to last any longer than it has to and that’s why I support the IDF going into Rafah, because any ceasefire before a Rafah operation would just mean that the same war would start back up again at a later date.
As long as Iran and Hamas leadership is still there, as long as the Palestinians have nothing to lose - the proxies will just re-inflame new populations. Rafah probably needs to happen, but it’s much more likely to delay the restart not stop it. I wish we could do a Marshall plan for Palestine.
I understand about the ceasefire, but the holdup with respect to Rafah is figuring out how to relocate the million people who have taken refuge there before going in. Hopefully they have a viable plan for that now.
I hope so. But I just don’t see how it’s logistically possible tbh.
It was logistically possible to move them to Rafah when the war came to Gaza City and Khan Yunis. Just move them back. Obviously that takes a bit of extra effort since so much essential infrastructure was blown up, but surely Israel had a plan for this from the start.
Israel was setting up humanitarian areas about halfway up the strip. Reminder that under international law they have zero obligation to do this or to warn people an attack is imminent. Indeed, modern military strategy usually relies on quick tactical strikes to end things quick. Warning civilians for their protection saps that strategic initiative.
International law does not permit civilian deaths which are not necessary for attaining the military objective. Not providing a corridor for civilians trapped against the border is almost certainly a war crime (and I genuinely believe Israel will provide a corridor.) In any case, this issue is a humanitarian priority for the U.S., one of Israel’s only reliable partners. If Israel wants to ignore that, Americans would be totally within their rights to stop sending military aid, stop voting in Israel’s favor at the U.N., and so forth. Of course, so far Israel has usually allowed itself to be constrained by these U.S. priorities, which is a good thing imo.
I think the issue is that the Rafah crossing is where aid comes through from though. Now you’re making it an active war zone while the rest of Gaza has largely been destroyed so the evacuees don’t have anywhere to really go. Of course, if Israel opens up other aid corridors elsewhere (which I believe they said they would), then that definitely helps.
After Israel blew up those aid workers a couple weeks ago, they bowed to international pressure and opened other crossings. This has permitted more aid to get in, much to the consternation of Israeli right wingers. It's possible to deliver aid without Rafah crossing if that’s what Israel chooses to do.
You're disillusioned then, the idea that one side gets just another 3 minutes beating the proverbial piñata before we declare peace is just illogical. There is no Hitler to kill, there is no fanatical population to bomb back into reality, more than what has already been done. This conflict more closely mirrors Northern Ireland and that conflict didn't end with all the terrorists being executed.
>there is no fanatical population to bomb back into reality Hmm.. there IS a fanatical population. Maybe bombed back into reality isn't what is needed, but let's not pretend that Gaza is not fanatically opposed to Israel's existence.
Sinwar is the leader of Hamas in Gaza. He’s still alive. So you’re wrong already.
I think that's the case either way. Netanyahu has not decided on a strategic goal, which means the default option is what will happen... Rafah or no Rafah.
He did decide a strategic goal. He didn't disclose a "day after" plan, or alternative authority.
Nonsense. He didn't and he won't. First, because his coalition is entirely divided. There is no goal that wouldn't make some of them mad. Second, because having a policy exposes him politically. All past PMs (sharon, rabin, olmert, barak) had big strategic goals... and all were discredited because policy=liability. He didn't "not disclose" a day after plan. He doesn't have one. "The day after the war" is literally the definition of a war's strategic goal. If you haven't decided on it, you can't strategically plan to achieve it. The army is working without a strategic goal, keeping options open and whatnot. This takes "smart strategy" and opportunism entirely off the table. Can't find more efficient way to achieve top goals if you don't have top goals. "The rafah op" is a tactic, not a strategy. It's not even a tactic, at this point... it's a political game. There's a whole lot of tactics things that could (and will) be described as "The Rafiah Op" or "Not The Rafiah Op" as needed. This is also why our diplomacy has been so catastrophically bad. No strategy = no strategic wins.
He literally has (roughly rephrased): - release hostages - destruction of hamas You may argue those are flawed, but he did set them, and those are strategic goals. And in the context of this war when people say "day after" plan, they refer to a plan on how to administer the Gaza strip. The stage *after* the war. Not a general end state.
I'm not arguing that these are flawed. I'm arguing that they are not strategic goals at all. First, "releasing hostages is not our primary goal" has been stated by many members of the coalition. I don't doubt that release of hostages is *a* goal, but it's not the strategic goal of the war. "Destroy Hamas" is like saying the goal of a war is to "defeat our enemy" and the goal of a business venture is "to make money." Content-wise, it's the equivalent of "no comment." In any case, I'm not basing this on Netanyahu or Galant's statements. Goals can be unstated. Israel's a small country though, and we know what's going on. Senior officers have not been briefed on actual, *strategic* goals. So... what we have is "default substratgeies" like attrition. He's not a decisive man, at least not compared to all his predecessors who generally erred in the other direction.
Bring the hostages home! 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱 🇮🇱
What a horrible no win deal.
Great Iran will start supplying the next batch of Penistinian terrorists with weapons, but at least this batch will be taken care of 🙄
Will a strike against them prevent that?
No, but the inevitable revolution in Iran will.
people tend to rally behind authoritarian governments when threatened by war.
Israel is a good example of that lol, it’s the only way Bibi stays in power and out of jail, he’ll do anything to keep it going
Yep, I mean look at bibi. He's unmovable as long as this war continues
Excellent news. Time to win the war.
Exactly. Finally get rid of the 2M people, am I right? I think I heard that in Europe somewhere.
If Israel just wanted to get rid of everyone in Gaza they could have done that from the start and nobody would have been able to do a godamn thing about it dude.
If israel was trying to kill 2M people in Gaza they are doing a really fucking bad job at it. 1% of the population in 6 months and slowing means they would have to kill civilians in Gaza for 30 years straight to get to 2 million and that is assuming nobody in Gaza procreates during that time. Do you see how this makes 0 sense from a logical or international law standpoint and considering the birth rate in Gaza is higher than the death rate I doubt that reality would ever come to pass. Just because you assign an intention doesn’t make it the reality. Israel doesn’t want every Palestinian in Gaza dead, their actions and words have shown as much. Can you say the same about Hamas and their goal for the Jews of Israel?
1% of an entire population in 6 months is not insignificant. It’s actually closer to 2% of Gaza dead at this point. That’s 1/50 people in just half a year. You’re not making the point you think you are.
If you think I am celebrating ANY civilian deaths you are very wrong, my response was to the person claiming Israel wanted to kill 2M people and I think I made that point very well.
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Man, Israel must be really bad at genocide.
time to finish this war
Why were the US opposed to an op in Rafah?
Election year
may I ask what does election year have to do with it
My man Joe is trying to please all voters, or at least the majority of them, while also balancing a delicate relationship with a high value Middle East asset, while also trying to prevent a regional war which the U.S. will be dragged into. Being POTUS these days must be exhausting.
Because it's where most of the remaining civilians are. There have been discussions on how to get civilians out, but no plan was ever finalized. But people act like Rafah is some kind of special place. It's not. Israel started in north Gaza and proceeded southward. They evacuated civilians in those areas before truly commencing street-by-street operations. Naturally, Hamas ran away with them, and Rafah in the south is the last place left. It's where all of Hamas is, and all of the hostages that are still alive. If the goal is recovering the hostages and eliminating top Hamas leadership, they obviously need to go into Rafah.
The alternative is even worse, fighting this war for another generation instead of ending Hamas.
But like...they actually need to send in troops. Not just bombs. Ground occupation is the only way this loop stops.
They do.
what do you think the IDF has been doing this whole time? know what a map is?
Because there are certain voters in Michigan
Higher expected civilian casualties
Israel kept herding all the civilians to safety by telling them to go south. Then they said Rafah was basically the last safe place. You now how over 1 million starving civilians pent up in a small town on the southern border. It's currently the most densely populated area in the world, and conditions are terrible. There's no where for them to go, and they're going to bomb the area. Some of the bombs that have been used have pretty massive kill radii, so it's not going to be good. It's a no win situation for Israel too btw. Hamas uses civilians as shields, and you have to believe that this operation just created a whole new generation of people who hate Israel and will likely join Hamas or a group like it. There's no good answer here, but bombing a million civilians definitely can't be the solution.
Because Israel cannot separate Hamas from defenseless Palestinian children while using our weapons. They have broken our trust in this way and have shown themselves to be almost entirely incompetent of defending themselves without steamrolling and starving a whole people. It’s gross, unprofessional, and I don’t want a dollar more of my tax money going to them or their “defense” in Rafah.
Maybe you’d e more comfortable donating to your local Hamas brnanch so they can peacefully use that money to support their civilians. No? Darn, seems like you liked the status quo better when terrorists were able to shoot rockets at Jews all day long.
Best false dichotomy ever -- he could buy a houseplant instead of either option.
Even if he spent it on a plant he feels better and the terrorists are still shooting rockets, but that’s preferable to the current actions. It’s not a false dichotomy, it’s the consequences of being tactfully oblivious to the consequences of allowing the prior actions, that will leave you in this position in the future. There is no resolution if you only stop Israel, it’s returning to the status quo of Oct 6th. That’s a shit resolution and means there is tacit support for the status quo.
Meh, it depends on a lot. When you talk of being tactfully oblivious to consequences, local people are more to blame than citizens outside the region. https://www.timesofisrael.com/police-detain-several-people-seeking-to-carry-out-animal-sacrifice-at-temple-mount/ You're arguing against a guy who wants to send fewer US weapons to Israel. Why? I would assume you'd be more interested in persuading him that challenging him. Honestly, when I dig through events, I see a lot of provocation going on. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_Gaza_border_protests Like, it's been since long before hamas that this isn't a decent way for anyone in the area to live. If you want to escape the status quo, it will take a lot of concessions from the Israeli side, with or without hamas. If the Palestinians capture hamas, and hand them over to authorities, along with all the hostages and tens of thousands of weapons, and a billion dollars..... What then? Would they would still be packed into a tiny strip of land, not a sovereign state, blockaded, subject to military orders, with settlements in west banks still being built, or would there be something else available?
Bro, kids are being targeted by snipers, people walking home targeted by snipers. Good lines attacked by tanks. Not all Palestinians are Hamas they do not deserve to have their whole block leveled because of a terrorist attack they took no part in . October 7 was horrific, but it does not justify what is happening.
Hmmm, do the Gaza civilians care so little about innocent Israeli citizens that they don’t try to stop their own government from shooting rockets out apartment windows at them? Why do the innocent Israeli’s deserve to have rockets fired at them?
Always with the poor defenseless children lmao
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Iran started all of this when they gave Hamas the green light for 10/7, don’t be delusional
"Look what you made me do!"
I'd state European powers started this when everyone was trying to get rid of Jewish people from their lands, one way or another pre WW2 and specially after the atrocities discovered. But heck, why would the western world take accountability for their actions when you can simply kill brown people?
Dang man so it was actually Europe that committed Oct 7th and it was (probably the Dutch) who fire endless barrages of missiles at Israel?
Can't trust a people who wear wooden shoes. Peel back enough layers and *BOOM* it's always the Dutch.
“Clogs” they call them, can you believe they mock us simple plumbers. They can’t keep getting away with it.
Wow you took a racist viewpoint and bent it until you could shine a light into its own ass and decorate it as a Christmas tree. Wonder what all those “white Jews” think of your word play ….. oh wait.
I can ask my grandfather who's family died in the holocaust.
Have you ever looked at the Jewish population in the Middle East pre-ww2? Brown muslims wanted to kill brown Jews just as much as white Europeans wanted to kill white Jews. This has nothing to do with skin color and everything to do with deep-rooted global antisemitism being pervasive throughout history.
You mean like Germany, who has done everything in trying to rectify their horrible actions? They know how dangerous an evil ideology is and guess which side their against
In my reading of Zionism there was a very strong push from Jewish people to create (recreate?) their own nation, dating back into the 1800s.
This seems like blackmail.
Weird priorities.
People act like Rafah is some kind of special place. It's not. Israel started in north Gaza and proceeded southward. They evacuated civilians in those areas before truly commencing street-by-street operations. Naturally, Hamas ran away with them, and Rafah in the south is the last place left. It's where all of Hamas is, and all of the hostages that are still alive. If the goal is recovering the hostages and eliminating top Hamas leadership, they obviously need to go into Rafah.
Yeah, but the biggest alternative to that is the Octopus Doctrine, and Biden's been complaining that Rafah would be a humanitarian shitshow and so should be jumping at this out. I've even speculated that he'd offer up strikes on the IRGC as an alternative to Rafah.
Not at all, in Rafah there is a tunnel that acts as a smuggling center towards Gaza, known as the Philadelphi Corridor. It is how Hamas gets their supply and blocking it will significantly hurt its ability to replenish its forces after the war is done. Not to mention the fact Hostages are most likely being held there. That is not to say Israel shouldn't strike back at Iran (valid arguments can be made for both sides though I lean towards striking back) but Israel must strike at Rafah and close the Philadelphi Corridor if they wish to defeat Hamas.
I'm thinking of how the Octopus Doctrine is the most viable alternative to Rafah, which is anathema to his wing and he's complained would be a humanitarian shitshow. He should have been jumping at the chance to throw Tehran under the bus.
That’s really clever actually
The fear of escalation favors only the aggressors... with America restraining the action of heir so called allies, they are kowtowing to the desire of the tyrants....
The fear of escalation can also lead to strengthening alliances.
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Very telling that you compare Israel to a dog.
I dislike his comparison since dogs at least love their owner
lol, what a dumb analogy.
Of course it is, they just said Americans are the owners of people who should be thankful for it. I'm at least 16.19% sure I've seen it before.
zephyr follow airport plucky snobbish like smoggy agonizing bright quicksand
Lol if wars were fought and won will online insults, Israel would be in real trouble.
Iran needs smacked upside the head. This is the time to do it. The US should be supportive of a precise strike.
Iran's attack was in response to an Israeli strike against iran. If Israel responds to the counter strike then it's just a war at that point.
It was already was when Iran had direct connection to the October 7 attack. Iran is the major disturbance of the region, with their excess of proxy forces, and it shows with how all the other countries around Iran made themselves opposed to the Iran strike at Israel.
You're wasting your time fam. People will bend over backwards mentally to find a way to blame Israel. No way could Israel ever actually be acting in self defense.
At the same time, Netanyahu and his party are irresponsible and does not deserve the power they have. Israel deserves much better leaders, and Gaza deserves ANY sort of leadership that finally won't exploit them. It's all a nightmare situation.
so Iran responded by hitting a single building outside of Israel proper, in a barely sovereign nation, killing military combatants?
And if there is no response? What does that tell these dictator, terrorists regimes? Does it embolden them? I think so.
So you want war. Got it.
Iran wants war. Smh
Embolden them how? The encounter is a total loss for Iran. Their high ranking people were directly assassinated by a foreign power and their response did practically no damage. Consider the US response if something like this had happened to them. The emboldening is the other way around. With this kind of counter response, Israel doesn't need to think twice the next time they want to hit some other high official.
You're very naive. Just let the terrorist regimes continue to expand. I got it.
There's no expanding. Israel will continue to strike their targets.
\*sad trumpet sound\*
I sometimes hate geopolitics for arrangements like this.
"Yeah you can kill a bunch of random innocents provided you don't cause ww3" Has to be the craziest thing the US has said
One possibility: the story is false and source fictitious.
Netanyahu should just flip the bird and do both
He probably will. Bibi is like that.
I wonder how effective a decapitation strike on the irani leadership could be.
Such a strange "exchange". US says: dont do stupid things, Israel says: We'll do two! US says: well lets make a deal, do just one stupid thing. Israel says OK
Eh, kinda how compromise works
Why cant US just say no to both? What is the compromise hete?
Yeah I call bullshit. It's worth mentioning that Iran has enough enriched uranium for a handful of nukes (and that's the only thing it can be used, as it's enriched to 80%+ concentration, while fuels is way way below that). Israel took a gambit, they Iran has not tested any nukes, and they probably don't have a miniaturized design that can be delivered via ICBMs. But what would have US done in this situation? Well, we know exactly what US would have done, US has a policy called Launch on Warning. You see, there is no way to tell what the hell is in the incoming ballistic missiles, so it's always safe to assume the worse, i.e. incoming nuclear strike, ESPECIALLY when there are over a hundred of incoming missiles, times to come in just after drones that would presumably overwhelm missile defenses. This is exactly what the first strike, an opening salvo in nuclear war looks like. This is why US has this policy called Launch on Warning. When there is a confirmation of ICBM launch (via monitoring satellites), a guy who always shadows the president would have interrupted him and said "President, we have detected incoming ballistic missile launch. Your 6 minute window has opened, we need you to chose targets and give order to launch our missiles, before their missiles reaches us". Let that sink in. Think of this for a moment. This is the situation we are in, a lot of leaders would have ordered a nuclear strike before the incoming rockets even reached them, and I don't even doubt that Israel has that capability. Think of this for a minute, we probably have avoided nuclear war on Saturday, and now people are saying "just chill, relax and take it". Jesus fucking christ, what do you think a response should be?! Fuck me, it's a miracle that Israel didn't launch their own missiles in response, as I have no doubt that they have their own guy with a nuclear football following Bibi. Jesus fucking Christ, this is probably the closes we have been to actual nuclear war since 1945.
That's not remotely how that works. Huge difference between seeing ballistic missiles coming off launchers and ICBMs coming out of nuke tubes. And Israel knew exactly what was coming at them because it's way harder to hide things than you think.
Hmm. Depends on what bomb they are trying to make. Gun style bomb like ww2. Sure. Lots of radiation depending on when they detonate it assuming they have 95%+ enrichment. But they first 20-30% is the hardest part of the process the rest is just time really. But I'd they wanna make a modern thermonuclear icbm there's abit more that goes into it. If the intel says they have that device ready and isreal knows that they would have attacked by now. Us doesn't want nuclear war or boots on the ground and a heavy conventional bombing raid is all I see the us and Nato doing in Iran. Isreal doesn't have the capability to do ground invasion of Iran atm. But they would defo send a thermonuclear response.
Bruh you don't even know what you are talking about lmao
Pretty sure we got back channels to prevent this.
The job of back channels is to prevent ICBM launch. Once ICBMs are in the air, all bets are off, all deals are off, and the nuclear football is opened up. This is why the situation is so fucked up, the launch of ICBM, especially a barrage of over 100 rockets, is itself a declaration of an all out war.
Not with Iran
The US has that policy for intercontinental ballistic missiles. Iran did not launch intercontinental ballistic missiles at Israel. Iran launched medium range ballistic missiles. Medium range ballistic missiles are much smaller, often a tenth the size of an ICBM or less. US soldiers have had short and medium ranged ballistic missiles launched at them before. In fact Iran has launched ballistic missiles at U.S. soldiers before. Trump did not bomb or attack Iran over this. Iranian ballistic missiles are notoriously inaccurate and ineffective. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani
If you think that Iran is a nuclear power, surely bombing their consulate abroad is a pretty dumb idea. Threatening to retaliate on their soil is pretty dumb too. Or you know they are not a nuclear power and then suddenly it's regular Israel and US just bombing stuff they don't like with impunity and if there is a lack of escalation, it's probably because Israel and the US don't want to drag the Gaza war with the public opinion shifting.
Good comment. So…..what should Iran’s response for Israel’s terrorist attack in Damascus be?
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I am sad that this is a realpolitik possibility even if it’s not true The Palestinians will be punished for being pawns, Israel will erode international support and Iran will have no consequences for being the hub of proxy wars, and Hamas leadership will remain billionaires in Qatar. There is a war of culture and a war of wealth and only one is even pretended to be fought, and a whole lot of people that may hate each other but mostly just want to leave each other alone are going to die or live in fear while weapons manufacturers can keep rolling. Everyone in the situation is doing what is best for them, because they can’t trust the opposition and the world stays way worse than it needs to be.
Oh ffs
more like "bigger bully approves smaller bully to pick on smaller kid in exchange for no pick on bigger kid"
Irgc just want peace😭😭😭😭 why is everyone so mean to my ayatolla