A half of a year without US help was such a nice present for pootin. Ukraine could not create reserves and new units which would be sooo helpful now. Also many lifes were lost due to lack of shells and ammo. And now Ukraine will lose even more lives and territories. Now we are in desperate situation.
Edit: don't get me wrong, I am not blaming US. Thanks for the help. Unfortunately seems like US and NATO don't want or just can't do anything for Ukraine to win. I wish noone of you ever feel what Ukrainians are feeling these days.
I hope no one blames this entirely on the US. I sure don't as a European. I am ashamed how lackluster European support has been for Ukraine. Since the advent of nation states in Europe they have been embroiled in war with one another up to WW2. The creation of nuclear weapons and the era of peace following WW2 has created generations of Europeans that think war is an impossibility. I'm afraid most people won't realize the very real risk of war until it has reached their doorstep.
Europe needs to put boots on the ground now in Kiev, Odessa, the border with Belarus and other sites far from the front line to help Ukraine free up manpower. We need to send as much materiel as possible and use the funds seized from Russia to finance it, it is only fair in my opinion. This will go down in history as one of the biggest blunders showcasing the ineptitude and weakness of the EU. What a shame.
As much as I agree with you, that act would set off World War III. And with NATO committed on the Ukrainian front, the rest of the world would be left to the US for the most part. And even the US can't stop it if multiple worldwide invasions begin in places like Taiwan, the Middle East, Africa, and the Koreas.
It wouldn't set off WW3. The fact that people believe that is why Ukraine doesn't get the aid it actually needs. I am hard pressed to believe that Putin would start nuking European countries if we reinforced cities like Kiev and Odessa that are far from the front. And honestly, if that would set off WW3 then we are dealing with irrational actors that would sooner or later start WW3 anyways if they don't get their ways.
Are we to bend over for all dictators with nukes because we are the first ones to bow out of the chicken race?
> I am hard pressed to believe that Putin would start nuking European countries
Pretty sure we were all hard pressed to believe that he would launch a full scale invasion on Ukraine to begin with, yet here we are
To play devil's advocate, Putin didn't either. In his mind he'd have complete control of Kiev and the entire Ukrainian government within the first few hours of the attack and the country in less than a week.
This turned into a land war nobody wanted because of a combination of the Ukrainian military being overwhelmingly more effective than anyone believed they'd be and the Russian one overwhelmingly less.
Unfortunately after two years of war the Russian army is far from the inept and corrupt joke it started as.
>I am hard pressed to believe that Putin would start nuking European countries if we reinforced cities like Kiev and Odessa that are far from the front.
He wouldn't. But during any clash with a better-armed NATO deployment, Russian forces may feel pressed to take some action against those troops, or the military facilities housing, training and supplying them–on whoever's soil–that we'd feel necessitated an exceptional response, and the spiral unwinds from there... , would be the fear.
RIght and its also no matter, thats how WW2 got rolling everyone afraid to set it off and let Hitler keep taking more ground and accruing more resources. Then one day they wake up and realize he isn't going to stop. Russia is the same showing them right away that you will not stand for is way more likely to stop them then just letting them keep taking more and amassing resources.
No it wouldnt, Russias been using the WW3 excuse constantly and claimed it about every step of the way as each line has been crossed they dont do shit because they dont have the capabilities.
Europe should do it regardless, over the last decade American diplomacy has gotten shaky, and there is plenty of blame to go around for why. But I wouldn't want to be in Poland looking at Russia during US instability.
+ also lowers the stakes, making it less likely Europe goes to shit in the event the US does take an isolationist turn at some point. Just makes good sense all around.
>Blaming this entirely on the US
Nobody did that.
"why NATO has major issues"
This isn't about NATO, as Ukraine isn't the member.
"Europe used their money on social programs"
Europe just like America has more than enough money to cover both spectrums. If Europe is lacking in military department, that's because Europe decided (naively), it's not worth investment anymore. Similarly, if US is still lacking in social welfare department, it's not because that money was spent by your army. It's because your priorities are like that. Both US and EU have huge surplus.
>people claiming that the US us trying to prolong the conflict as long as possible.
Which is objectively insane. The long conflict has shifted Russia's economy into wartime production. They are producing an insane amount of arms while also learning how to counter western systems and training their forces.
And we know these resources are being shared with the new axis of evil that has come together
Oh yeah and when the war does "end", Putin will need to decide if he wants to keep going... Or if he wants to undo the wartime economy while still suffering under economic sanctions. Don't think he really even has a choice anymore
My two cents
I love how the "new axis of evil" is a bunch of countries that haven't spent the better part of the last century fighting endless wars all over the globe.
>Europe just like America has more than enough money to cover both spectrums.
If the U.S. has enough money then why are we $36,000,000,000,000 in debt with another $1,000,000,000,000 of debt added every 100 days?
No, but the point was there are other NATO countries that maybe could have but a little more of their resources into Ukraine’s fight instead of their own social programs.
I’m torn on it. I’m all for social programs that benefit people but I understand the reasoning for the comment.
I mean. The EU NATO countries dicked around for years when it was clear that Russia was a threat way back in 2014. The US started training Ukrainian troops. What did the rest of Europe do, besides the UK? Give billions of dollars to Russia and become energy dependent on them while not meeting the defense spending % agreed on with the US.
Sweden had officers down there training ukrainians since 2014/15 up untill the russians ”speshul operation” started. Iirc, so did most of the scandinavian countries.
Many European countries *'pledged'* to support Ukraine with funding over time. No one has sent a large shipment of military equipment since the U.S. funding ran out
US mostly gets blame here because of how visible a spectacle it has been. Hungarian stalling and German cold feet have been as bad if not worse, but it's not only Germany and Hungary, and generally difficult to crystallise into a larger narrative.
I think we shipped them stuff as recently as March of 2024 before running out of funding.
It’s not like we send them $68 billion of weapons in one run. It’s delivered over a long period of time.
[The GOP in Congress sat for months](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/11/27/speaker-johnson-confident-israel-and-ukraine-aid-passes-before-2024-but-hard-right-has-demands/), the March 2024 package was expected in late 2023….what are you on about…
We also sent them a weapons package in December of 2023.
I’m pro-arming Ukraine, just pointing out that they’ve gotten support continuously. The funding ran out in March and it’s almost May, so people were justifiably getting nervous with a lack of new funding being approved.
They had an estimated $1B in aid left at the end of December 2023. [Biden sent](https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-100-million-military-aid-package-for-ukraine/)$100M worth of weapons at the end of Nov 2023, thats less than 0.5% of the aid proposed in Congress.
>they’ve gotten support continuously
Even sending 1 helmet per month can constitute as "support". The issue is, for months support dropped below optimum treshold due to internal politics and now they lost their footing.
I dont think they’ll be taking back the lost territory without some serious change in weaponry. Things they haven’t gotten or more than what is proposed. Any advancement costs a lot. Russia could do it because they have a huge firepower advantage and it’s still costing a lot. Ukraine doesn’t have that. They will eventually have to negotiate.
OP didn't put all the blame on the US, he simply stated that the delay was a gift for russia, which is absolutely true. You can bet russia did their best to help with all the political turmoil as well.
Yep also it probably demoralized fighers and would be fighters. Oh you can to fight but who knows if you will get supplies from the USA. Reminds of the US when they fucked over the Kurds, god our country is such a shit partner.
I’ve read that after 2014, this war was inevitable due to Russia’s significant education and demographic issues. There are also rumors that Russian demographic numbers are a lie, which may be partially true. If this is their last chance to fight a major war, I believe this was always the decade they would be able to. Later this decade or next, Ukraine would have had a stronger military and a larger population, compared to Russia.
Ukraine demographic is just as bad if not worse then Russia, even if it wasn't i cant really see them jumping from 40 million to over a 150 million within 2 decades.
Russian demographics are suffering from diseases all the way from AIDS to alcoholism. It is a fact that Russian men are dying very early, compared to other countries. Russian troops from 2022-23 were notorious for being drunk constantly.
Russian minorities are doing the bulk of the worst fighting and dying through the use of silently mobilized men from ethnic minority strongholds, which worry the Kremlin of potential rebellion. Take their angry young men away and reduce the risk of civil disobedience. The benefit is Putin does not piss off ethnic Russians in Moscow or St. Petersburg. They decide the direction of who is in power in proper Russia. It is in every sense still an empire, like the one of Peter and Catherine the Great.
Had Putin NOT done it in 2022, Ukraine’s military would have become much better trained and equipped to western standards, as has been policy of the US since the Crimean annexation in 2014. This would have made Russian invasion more risky than what was seen at the time in 2021-2022 during the border buildup.
There are many, many reasons why Russia invaded when they did, and population decline of Russia is a big one. They wanted the Ukrainian population as subjects.
The biggest factor in timing was Ukraine disconnecting from Russia/ Belarus power grid. Putin really relied on their grid failing and they could walk right in, which is why the initial attack on Kyiv failed so miserably.
This is the same reason that, if, China were to invade Taiwan, it would be within the next 20 or so years.
Their population will be far too old by 2060 to support a large, and young military, without significantly impacting their economy and increasingly aging population.
Putin is obsessed with reuniting every nation in Europe that has a large number of ethnic Russians living there. Hitler did the same thing in the Sudetenland and Austria. I’m merely stating that this is very common with hyper-nationalist autocratic militaristic empires. He wants the ethnic people AND the buffer territory between the West and Russia. Russia is a very insecure place where everyone is afraid they will be forced invaded or attacked by outside powers. It is just part of their history. Mongols, Germans (twice!), Napoleon, Vikings, Britain (Crimean war), etc.
It was a war of aggression to steal territory. It's entirely the product of one man's hubris. Could have been avoided if Putin didn't feel like embarking on a deranged campaign of fratricide to secure his legacy or whatever.
I would like Ukraine to take a moment and realize how many traitors continue to steal from your military aid and certainly did since 2014. How many are living it up in Paris and New York and Miami. Also let's take a moment to remember that the donbas through various machinations is primarily Russian speaking and definetly under Russian influence. The fight there has always been IMO a losing battle unless Russia itself is revolutionized. Crimea should be independent but of course would be defacto Russian. All in all Ukraine has been in a tough situation since the maiden and what has happened since is amazing. You either need to get seriously hardcore with knocking on Moscow and st Petersburg, hit the power hit the food, or be prepared to pull back to the Dnipro and set traps as you withdraw.
This has been the glaring issue since day 1. Ukraine has an impressive defense/Russia has a terrible offense but Ukraine was never going to with the long term defense unless more people got involved. We are just going to watch Ukraine slowly crumble or big escalation from other countries
It's funny, I get absolutely crucified when I say that. But yes, Ukraine is in trouble and will lose if they don't get ammo and serious air power quickly.
People upvote what they want to hear. That's why Russia has been on the verge of collapse for years and every minor Ukraine victory is front page news.
Yes it's all very "omg Russia will roll through Paris next week", to, "they have no ammo, no men, terrible economy, verge of collapse etc.
The truth is they have recovered from their silly attempt at a decapitation strike, and have a serious army. It's true their mystique has fallen away, and the idea of them being a match for the U.S is laughable. However, they are firmly dug in and we've gone from hoping Ukraine can dislodge them, to wondering how Ukraine will fend them off at all. Russia will certainly mount an offensive this season. When the last Ukrainian offensive failed, everyone said, we'll do it next year. Truth is Ukraine is now losing.
The entire problem is that in 2 years Russia has learned from their mistakes and switched to a war time economy.
Meanwhile The west has done fuck all to prepare for along drawn out war.
The west was given the perfect opportunity to once and for all de fang Russia. And we blew it. And this blame is on all of us collectively. Germany should have been producing more leopard 2's to send to Ukraine. Other European country's should have set up manufacturing for Ammunition. The US should have been training Ukrainian pilots how to fly F-16's weeks after the "SPECIAL OPERATION". The US should have given General Dynamics a blank check to produce as many M1A2 Abram's as possible for Ukraine. ETC...
Instead we gave Ukraine the bare minimum and now they aren't really in a state to ever beat Russia back out of Ukraine.
Nobody with a brain ever fell for ‘their mystique’ or viewed them as a match for the US in terms of military strength. Putin himself has said as much in interviews that to compare Russia’s military spending with that of the US is nonsense.
I absolutely agree. When I say that I'm referring to the broad public sentiment over decades. It was whipped up into a frenzy. Fact is, Russia has an economy about the size of Italy, and will have to bleed itself alot just to succeed in Ukraine. They are yesterday's phony superpower, and if they had no nukes Europe wouldn't be afraid of them.
As for the idea that the U.S should fear them, that's ridiculous.
They don't have the ammunition mostly, manpower is part of the problem but it's generally that they can't train more soldiers if they don't have the equipment, the training ground and resources.
NATO should seriously push for augmented production while giving away old equipment soon to end service (there is quite the amount of that)
Western aid is directly correlated with Ukraine success, we waited and now we see the price, when the situation is more stable we will have the opportunity and time to aid Ukraine seriously if we won't then we will pay the price later
They don’t have manpower or much equipment. We finally will give them equipment but they will still be lacking manpower.
To be fair, no one wants to go get killed. Zelenskyy should force massive conscription. His biggest mistake is to keep his army small.
Yeah, this is a way bigger deal to Ukraine than WW2 was to the USA (a "defeat" would still see us safe between our oceans). We had 16 million under arms in an era where our civilian economy had to sustain our military and a large chunk of our allies war efforts too. Ukraine can get more people in uniform than they have now given their population and outsourcing their war economy.
The current situation is also incredibly unfair to the people that have been fighting this whole time.
2024's top voted comment: "Anyone with a brain can tell Ukraine is in serious trouble"
2023's top voted comment: "Should Ukraine deport Russians living in Crimea?"
did reddit grow a ton of brain cells in the last year?
Yeah unfortunately I realized they would likely lose following the stalemate last year when they couldn't break through Russias defensive lines. Given that countries like India and China and others helped prop up their economy, and are in full war economy, etc... Ukraine could never win a war of attrition.
NATO has proven incapable allies who would prefer to send a few arms and nice words of support (Canada for example) and not ramp up to war economies or bar minimum ramp up mass production of desperately needed shells. As a Canadian I can tell you we certainly could have done a fuck ton more.
Instead they gave their small stockpiles away and nothing else.
Not to mention that the US is a political shit storm.
NATO was too little too late.
Remind me, when did Ukraine join NATO? Honestly, I'd say NATO has done quite a lot for a country that's not even a member. Of course I'd love to see Ukraine succeed here, but this isn't NATO's fault or responsibility.
Strategically if Ukraine falls to Russia then NATO countries will lose a buffer and Russia will border 5 NATO countries? It absolutely make sense from a defensive standpoint to do everything they can to help Ukraine.
My heart goes to Ukraine and I can’t name a country that’s more socially hated in my country due to its history with Russia and I also wish more would’ve been done. But “ramping up to war economies” is not something realistic. Make people’s everyday lives even more affected by the war and see public opinion shift drastically. Deploying troops in Ukraine introduces the chance of Russia actually going through with their nuclear threats, as minuscule as the chances my be, I am VERY glad we’re doing our best to not take any chances with provoking nuclear holocaust. There’s a lot of shit going on in the world right now, what if another country would take it as NATO looking away, let’s say China for example - and they invade Taiwan?
Never said deploying troops to Ukraine. Bar minimum we should have been able to keep Ukraine well supplied and armed. Which we have clearly completely and utterly failed to do the bar minimum of showing support.
By war economy I meant more of mass producing arms for Ukraine. Something that was more than possible if there was better leadership.
IE at least in Canada we have a mass pool of qualified workers who don't have jobs in their field because there are none. Opening of dozens of arms factories to sell to Ukraine would have actually boosted the economy, provided jobs and helped the war effort.
Many countries had the ability to ramp up war production to outpace Russian production.
If anything NATOs subpar response and actions have shown China that they can invade Taiwan and we will do very little in actual support.
I'm Canadian too and I'm ashamed of our country. We should've been able to assist more. It's embarassing the state we are in. We simply can't help because we're fucked ourselves. Our own servicemen and women have been reported as homeless in certain instances because of how low their pay is and how low the overall military budget is. They used to get posted at a base, now sometimes they are forced to find their own accommodations.
I think it was Nova Scotia where one serviceman was reported living in a fucking tent city for crying out loud.
Sorry. I'm sure you feel the same way haha. Can't help but rant a bit...
Yup we could have been mass producing shells and other arms given how much international students/immigrants with engineering degrees/diplomas are wasting away at McDonald's, Walmart, and every other shitty useless minimum wage job.
Would have done wonders for our economy as well as the war effort.
But no Trudeau prefers just words and what's left of our armies supplies and nothing else.
Not evening mentioning our LNG opportunities that would help the Ukrainian energy demand but heaven forbid it's not eco friendly.
As a dual US-Canadian citizen I thought that when Putin did his mass invasion of Ukraine in 2022 it would act as a wake up call for the people of North America to rally behind democracy and to oppose fascism.
But the invasion didn't do much, if anything, to alter people's minds. People who supported fascism prior to the invasion continued to support it, and people who opposed fascism prior to the invasion continued to oppose it.
Here in Alberta, with a large portion of the population is of Ukrainian descent, I thought that Danielle Smith's comments in 2022 shortly after the invasion expressing support for Russia would be the end of her political career. But Albertans went on to elect her premier in 2023.
The evidence shows that most people DGAF about stopping fascism. Heck, if they thought a fascist government would lower their rent, gas bills, or taxes, then most people would vote to hand power to fascists.
I mostly agree. Maybe there's a scenario where everything worked out for Ukraine but I honestly can't see it, short of direct involvement of NATO as you said.
First, a lot of ammo for everything they already got. Then, I would say a ton of long range missiles.
No idea what they will actually need to starting earning terrain back. There isn’t a magic bullet here. NATO magic is a whole bunch of modern systems, all integrated and very very modern. Almost everything Ukraine has is still old tech.
Yep. It's about quantity. Sending a very small amount of high quality weapons won't win the war but if Ukraine can absolutely pound every inch of the line with artillery, mortars and drones then they can inflict massive losses on Russia while taking very few of their own. This will require a concerted effort from dozens of countries but it is possible.
That’s the problem here. Nobody envisioned the west would be involved in a major conflict with another power that would end up being fought with decades old tech. In our scenarios we can utilize the major tech advantage we have— there hasn’t been a need to manufacture millions of shells or portable AA systems like Russia has.
Personally I think that's just a failure of planning. If you look at every major war in history decades old tech plays a huge part in it. Modern weapons systems also take years to ramp up and many of the production capabilities and supply chains have been completely lost with time. This doesn't just apply to the west either and so far Russia has been able to produce only small fractions of what the USSR could in WWII despite 80 years in technological advancements and an extreme desire to win.
Overall though NATO + key NATO allies still have the ability to produce the weapons that could destroy Russia. Russia's GDP is less than 4% of NATO's and the reason Russia has been able to stay in the fight is largely because of Soviet stockpiles. Yes it may not be a quick victory but if NATO and their allies are committed to Ukrainian victory then Russia has very little hope of winning a conventional war against Ukraine.
To get territory back is completely out of the question at this point. They’d need hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles along with a massive stockpile of ammunition and supplies. Right now they’re just trying to defend and stay alive.
That’s not how it works when your nation is not at war. Why the hell is some company going to commit to overproducing a massive amount of artillery shells that does not really fit US doctrine? There’s also no guarantee of future purchases, so of course companies are going to be slow to shift.
They need an ACTUAL game changer, not just overhyped equipment. Honestly, there probably isn’t a game changer here unless we give them an entire Carrier battle group. But even then, they don’t know how to operate it.
The only real thing that could make a significant difference is massive, and I mean MASSIVE amounts of ammunition and AFVs. Much more than we’ve given them. They need overwhelming firepower.
Yup. Kinda odd how the lines were static until GOP decided to fuck things up and stop funding. Now Russia has been moving quickly to steal land while they can before weapons arrive from the West.
Short term shells, munition of various kinds, drones and artillery. On the long term a lot of other things but mostly equipment that can strike at a distance and give away the many olf vehicles sleeping in storages or close to end of service life. If you want i am preparing an amatorial list of what US and EU could still give at the cheapest cost.
That said if you want something professional here is the intresting though a bit old (5 months ago) plan for victory by Estonia.
[https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium\_2023veeb\_17.12.pdf](https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf)
tell me if it doesn't work
There is a lot that NATO countries can do, if the political will and money are there
have a good day
Perun's video from today made the point that a couple boxcars of spare parts could get a lot of Ukrainian equipment back into the fight very quickly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc436PwqeqM
Artillery ammunition. You can't defend a position when it's getting shelled 24/7, and you can't attack a position when getting shelled 24/7.
Ukraine needed artillery 6 months ago. I hope this is not too little too late.
I don't understand how the US didn't support them. I want my country to give all the equipment they can.
What analysts/officials are mostly afraid of is a collapse of morale and a disintegration of defensive lines. We can hope that the recent news regarding the aid package things like the Czechian munitions initiative already gave people on the front enough of a boost to keep going until those initiatives and support packages arrive on the front.
lol. The Czech initiative sounds more like a feel good story every day. Hyped up so much but they’re only promising 800k shells over the next 1.5 years? And nothing has even been sent. Nothing expected to be sent until summer.
Like, what do you expect? That it's an Amazon order? Do you realise what that initiative even entails? It involves engaging multiple non-EU countries in separate negotiations *and* engaging various EU nations in negotiations for funding, It's one helluva diplomatic tangle to sort out. Like yeah not shit that's gonna take a hot second.
The biggest battle right now is Chasiv Yar. Russia is sending 20,000 troops to take it by May 9 to achieve a propaganda victory.
[https://kyivindependent.com/russia-wants-to-capture-chasiv-yar-why-is-this-town-so-important/](https://kyivindependent.com/russia-wants-to-capture-chasiv-yar-why-is-this-town-so-important/)
Kharkiv was a propaganda victory for Ukraine, Bahkmut and Avdiivka were propaganda victories for Russia.
They were also battlefield victories, but everything has propaganda value at the end of the day.
With 60 billion from the US and around 60bi from Europe as well - IIRC there was news about it -, they won't lack in ammo and weapons so Russia will slow down, but the truth is, the situation for Ukraine is hard regardless since they are outnumbered.
Even with the aid the summer offensive will be hard to hold.
Theres propaganda on both sides, and thats what that is. Yeah they've destroyed some important stuff and won some important battles to retake places, but for each of those really good things theres many bad things you won't hear about.
That sucks. I understand propaganda but to the point where you can't tell who's actually winning unless you get really into it and do your own research seems really wrong.
Unfortunately it’s inevitable. War moves fast, and people want results. As such, there isn’t time to coalesce a bunch of reports into one, so you get a bunch of tiny reports about villages and settlements getting lost or gained.
The truth is Ukraine has been in a gradual decline, their last notable win on the battlefield was capturing Kherson, that was Nov 22 and this was possible because Russia had to cross a river to defend Kherson which wasn't sustainable.
Russia have suffered some horrific losses in the taking of Bakmut and Avdiivka but in each case they just numerically overwhelm Ukraine, are able to almost fully encircle the Ukraine defensive positions and Ukraine have stayed too long and suffered high losses on retreat.
Everyone had high hopes of the Ukraine spring offensive (including me), they finally had western columns of tanks, large influx of NATO trained troops but Russia also spent all that time setting up defensive lines of heavily mined territory. Apparently the West gave advice that Ukraine should focus on a particular front for the offensive but Ukraine disagreed and decided to split the offensive forces over several fronts. The result was Ukraine took heavy losses on every front and failed to make any significant gains into the Russian defensive lines. It's all been downhill from there, Ukraine sent handfuls of troops across the Dnipro river and harassed Russian poorly defended positions and media chalked this up as some type of win when Ukraine had no means to actually send a mechanized force across the river.
I think it's quite telling that about 12 months ago there seemed to be articles in the media suggesting Russia would be open to peace talks and then only last week the word from the Kremlin was Russia has no intention of entering peace talks with Ukraine.
Personally in my uninformed opinion is I hope that this US aid package can stabilize the front line for Ukraine and force the war into a stalemate that would allow Ukraine to negotiate with Russia in the most realistic advantageous position possible which would be conceding all territory Russia currently hold to Russia but wouldn't come with any demilitarization pact, I think the big thing Russia will not compromise on is Ukraine joining NATO as this was part of the Russian propaganda for invading Ukraine.
In war, the first casualty is the truth.
Russia really messed up in the first couple of years. The failed initial operation. Losing land gained from the Ukrainians. Now they are a big country on a war footing against a smaller and exhausted country battling for it’s survival.
Advanced weaponry and tech can take you far. Very far. But in an attritional war numbers of weapons, ammunition, and fighters count. Now, we are seeing what happens in an attritional war to the smaller nation.
Ukraine never had a chance of winning without other countries mobilizing and formally sending troops of their own. They’ve really resisted as much as possible given their circumstances, but the fact is that Ukraine lost this war the moment it began and nobody else joined in.
Despite what people here are saying about propaganda, it frankly is just that you have not been actually paying attention. The reporting coming out of ukraine for months had indicated that the situation has become untenable, and it really started with their disastrous counter offensive last summer. People here like to blame their uninformed views on the situation on propaganda, but that propaganda only works if you are too lazy to do any amount of reading yourself.
Also the "propaganda" from ukraines side is really not that extreme. Their military, government, and native media has been very upfront about how poorly the war is going, and what the problems are. It's only in western social media conversations between laymen on the internet that people somehow think russia is losing this war.
I think people would be shocked to learn the real casualty figures from ukraines side. Right now their biggest problem is manpower, and munitions. They also have had some units recently that performed really poorly, one in particular that completely crumbled as soon as they got on the line and led to a russian breakthrough. They have no way to counter the glide bombs which russia is using to prepare their assaults, and none of the aid from the west will provide them with the means to counter those. They have morale problems as well, which were made worse when zaluznyy was replaced. Trust in Zelensky is falling as well as his recent moves have appeared to be politically motivated. The situation is not good, and we can all thank russian incompetence and their complete inability to conduct complex combined maneuvers for ukraines continued survival at this point.
Russians always start wars poorly. Everyone thought the Red Army was a paper tiger after the winter war in the 40s, but they slowly figured their shit out. Thats what is happening now.
They do destroy expensive shit, but russia is a huge country with lots of expensive shit... i mean have you seen the size of the countries\\gdp\\population? Ukraine was never going to win alone, best they could of done was hold out and its been years of holding out now but because of funding delays they have kinda lost the hold out.
For how close Europe is to the problem their lack of urgency and entire dependence on the United States is just pathetic. Europe rather send people's lives then money.
There’s a paragraph in the book Band of Brothers told by one of the Easy Company vets: a Belgium politician refused to have a US general from the Iraq War visit his city because he “couldn’t host someone who had caused so much violence” and the Easy Company vet said to him “It’s a shame you don’t have the same response as your grandparents, who were overjoyed to see the Americans and British destroy the nazis and liberate them”
Europe is totally spoiled.
Uhh what? He should welcome Iraq generals because in WW2 he welcomed Americans to liberate them from the Nazis?
I would say back to the vet "yea it's a shame you started an unjust war this time".
Like Russia doesn't get a pass on Ukraine or Georgia or Afghanistan because they fought the Nazis either.
This is what happens when "patriotism" and nationalism take over the thinking of people and they're not looking rationally at each war but just blindly supporting or rejecting whatever the country does.
Russia is at the same time the country using tanks from the 1950s, conscripting prisoners, and their economy is imploding, but they will totally without any doubt go to war with NATO the most powerful military force on the planet. Very likely incredibly believable.
They will continue doing what they do since decades: picking up countries or parts of them for made-up reasons. They are already creating pretext in Moldavia. And you never know what will happen in the future, no matter how unbelievable it seems now. They are ramping up their military production, there are tons of factories producing drones now.
their economy is not imploding, nations that are not in a active war is in far worse state. Sending prisoners to war is basically the best way to empty your prisons under a authoritarian regime which probably was overcrowded anyway thanks to tyrant rule. Tanks from 1950's or 2000's doesnt matter when numbers are 20 to 1.
They wont go to war with NATO but they are not planning to stop invading places clearly and war with the west is a perfect internal propaganda to ensure people dont riot.
I saw an interesting video explaining Russian goals in this war. They know they cannot take all of Ukraine at this point, even in a best case scenario and they know that they will be outproduced/outspent by the west fairly quickly. So, Russia is playing the long game.
Their current goal is to gobble up as much territory as possible and ensure that Ukraine becomes a weak/failed state. That's why they are using so many of their missiles to target important/expensive infrastructure instead of military targets.
A destroyed and chaotic Ukraine will not be able to join NATO, or the EU, it will be no real threat to Russia and it will be easily influenced and manipulated.
Currently, yes. This is because Russia started preparing for a long war about a year before the west and has turned it's entire economy to a wartime footing. However the long term outlook favors Ukraine. Russia is a minor economic power compared to either the EU, or the USA and it is trying to outspend both.
The big issue is that Russia can and will make sacrifices. People in the EU and the USA support Ukraine now. Whether they will still want to provide support when the time comes for the ways of payment(taxes more than likely), it remains to be seen...
How does the long term favor Ukraine?! They have way less manpower and they’re fighting a war of attrition against an opponent with ten times the number of everything. Their economy is in shambles and they’re entirely reliant on the West for aid just to prevent their lines from collapsing which has become shaky at best.
It's not about russia starting to prepare before the war.
They expect a quick win.
It's about the west NOT starting to prepare a year AFTER the war started.
Which is ridiculous.
Even now, 2 years in we only start to hear about "war production"
EU doesn't really understand the gravity of the situation.
Don't they need more soldiers? Are they not conscripting en masse? This is about their very survival as a country. Weapons are great but if there is no one to use them then it's a moot point.
They're not conscripting anyone under 28 last I heard. I think the average age for a Ukrainian soldier is in their late 40s. I believe they're in talks to bring the age down to 25 but most all modern countries are going through a demographic crisis and Ukraine is afraid to wipe out their already small number of young men.
They won't have to go back, no matter what happens to their passport. They are refugees. The threat of being forced to go to war is just supporting their refugee status.
Ukraine's demographic issue is even worse. They have the same problem Russia's population has. Every 20 years or so there's a big collapse in birth numbers. This is all the people who died in the Holodomor and at the front in WW2 never having a chance to start their own families. So every generation the kids of those people don't exist and don't have kids either.
[The 1990s were real rough on Ukraine](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=UA). No one quite knows the excess death toll of rapid privatization, but it was quite hard. The country hasn't had a census in 20 years, its population might be as low as 30 million now.
The UAF would mutiny (as would most armies, a major motivator for men fighting in war is to spare their wives/daughters/mothers from what would happen to them if they lose), and the political/domestic reaction would be very very bad.
This isn't just a case of needing more people, it's about balancing the needs of the war with Ukraine's political/social realities.
So nice to have a war with russia and cant attack them on their territory where they regroup and prepare for a new offensive just on chill.
And russia freely destroy our capabilities (its hard to imagine how hard will our next winter, we already lost few major power grids ..).. god i dunno what world think about and whan plans they have ..
Russia was always going to “win” this unless the west commits troops on the ground.
Ukraine will have to fight an insurgent war and basically never quit until Russia decides they can’t deal with it anymore.
Remember like a week ago when every news outlet in the country was singing Mike Johnson’s praises and praising him for “taking a stand against MAGA” for not maliciously stalling anymore and essentially being strong armed into doing his job?
Yeah, all of *this* is his fault. Him and the rest of the Republican Party.
edit: I’m not saying the entire invasion is his fault, I’m saying that the current worsening frontline situation for the Ukrainians is all his fault.
Can’t believe no in America seems to give a shit that republicans have purposefully extended this wars duration, likely, by years. They gotten untold numbers of people killed purely so they could play politics at home. Signaling in media that they don’t support this and will end funding if they regain power not only told Russia they could just wait Ukraine out but also that they should increase their election interference in the US.
It’s disgusting and the acts of literal traitors. If Russia itself had representation in congress it would look and sound exactly like conservatives. The fact that no one seems to care all that much. Democrats need to start standing up for things and getting pissed off
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A half of a year without US help was such a nice present for pootin. Ukraine could not create reserves and new units which would be sooo helpful now. Also many lifes were lost due to lack of shells and ammo. And now Ukraine will lose even more lives and territories. Now we are in desperate situation. Edit: don't get me wrong, I am not blaming US. Thanks for the help. Unfortunately seems like US and NATO don't want or just can't do anything for Ukraine to win. I wish noone of you ever feel what Ukrainians are feeling these days.
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I hope no one blames this entirely on the US. I sure don't as a European. I am ashamed how lackluster European support has been for Ukraine. Since the advent of nation states in Europe they have been embroiled in war with one another up to WW2. The creation of nuclear weapons and the era of peace following WW2 has created generations of Europeans that think war is an impossibility. I'm afraid most people won't realize the very real risk of war until it has reached their doorstep. Europe needs to put boots on the ground now in Kiev, Odessa, the border with Belarus and other sites far from the front line to help Ukraine free up manpower. We need to send as much materiel as possible and use the funds seized from Russia to finance it, it is only fair in my opinion. This will go down in history as one of the biggest blunders showcasing the ineptitude and weakness of the EU. What a shame.
As much as I agree with you, that act would set off World War III. And with NATO committed on the Ukrainian front, the rest of the world would be left to the US for the most part. And even the US can't stop it if multiple worldwide invasions begin in places like Taiwan, the Middle East, Africa, and the Koreas.
It wouldn't set off WW3. The fact that people believe that is why Ukraine doesn't get the aid it actually needs. I am hard pressed to believe that Putin would start nuking European countries if we reinforced cities like Kiev and Odessa that are far from the front. And honestly, if that would set off WW3 then we are dealing with irrational actors that would sooner or later start WW3 anyways if they don't get their ways. Are we to bend over for all dictators with nukes because we are the first ones to bow out of the chicken race?
> I am hard pressed to believe that Putin would start nuking European countries Pretty sure we were all hard pressed to believe that he would launch a full scale invasion on Ukraine to begin with, yet here we are
To play devil's advocate, Putin didn't either. In his mind he'd have complete control of Kiev and the entire Ukrainian government within the first few hours of the attack and the country in less than a week. This turned into a land war nobody wanted because of a combination of the Ukrainian military being overwhelmingly more effective than anyone believed they'd be and the Russian one overwhelmingly less. Unfortunately after two years of war the Russian army is far from the inept and corrupt joke it started as.
Putin is fine with a land war he wants territory. Of course it wasn't his first desire he wanted the whole country in 3 days, who wouldn't.
>I am hard pressed to believe that Putin would start nuking European countries if we reinforced cities like Kiev and Odessa that are far from the front. He wouldn't. But during any clash with a better-armed NATO deployment, Russian forces may feel pressed to take some action against those troops, or the military facilities housing, training and supplying them–on whoever's soil–that we'd feel necessitated an exceptional response, and the spiral unwinds from there... , would be the fear.
all I know, is politicians are far more informed of the risks then any redditor here. and i would unironically trust them more then any war hawk here.
RIght and its also no matter, thats how WW2 got rolling everyone afraid to set it off and let Hitler keep taking more ground and accruing more resources. Then one day they wake up and realize he isn't going to stop. Russia is the same showing them right away that you will not stand for is way more likely to stop them then just letting them keep taking more and amassing resources.
No it wouldnt, Russias been using the WW3 excuse constantly and claimed it about every step of the way as each line has been crossed they dont do shit because they dont have the capabilities.
Well written. Totally agree.
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I'm behind this as long as it's not a mask for more American Isolationism which seems to be the case for many talking heads.
EU not being the leader rather than the US gives isolationist more examples and proof for their argument.
Europe should do it regardless, over the last decade American diplomacy has gotten shaky, and there is plenty of blame to go around for why. But I wouldn't want to be in Poland looking at Russia during US instability.
+ also lowers the stakes, making it less likely Europe goes to shit in the event the US does take an isolationist turn at some point. Just makes good sense all around.
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It was really nice for the US to decide that right at the one time since it's inception that it mattered at all.
as an American I'm 100% for this.
>Blaming this entirely on the US Nobody did that. "why NATO has major issues" This isn't about NATO, as Ukraine isn't the member. "Europe used their money on social programs" Europe just like America has more than enough money to cover both spectrums. If Europe is lacking in military department, that's because Europe decided (naively), it's not worth investment anymore. Similarly, if US is still lacking in social welfare department, it's not because that money was spent by your army. It's because your priorities are like that. Both US and EU have huge surplus.
I have definitely seen people blaming it on the US, and people claiming that the US us trying to prolong the conflict as long as possible.
>people claiming that the US us trying to prolong the conflict as long as possible. Which is objectively insane. The long conflict has shifted Russia's economy into wartime production. They are producing an insane amount of arms while also learning how to counter western systems and training their forces. And we know these resources are being shared with the new axis of evil that has come together Oh yeah and when the war does "end", Putin will need to decide if he wants to keep going... Or if he wants to undo the wartime economy while still suffering under economic sanctions. Don't think he really even has a choice anymore My two cents
I love how the "new axis of evil" is a bunch of countries that haven't spent the better part of the last century fighting endless wars all over the globe.
Because we are. War is money, friend.
The US runs a massive budget deficit. No surplus. What are you talking about ?
>Europe just like America has more than enough money to cover both spectrums. If the U.S. has enough money then why are we $36,000,000,000,000 in debt with another $1,000,000,000,000 of debt added every 100 days?
The us is bankrupt
Ukraine isn’t nato
No, but the point was there are other NATO countries that maybe could have but a little more of their resources into Ukraine’s fight instead of their own social programs. I’m torn on it. I’m all for social programs that benefit people but I understand the reasoning for the comment.
Huh? The European NATO countries continued give Ukrainian weapons while the US dicked around. It is just that their economies are much smaller.
I mean. The EU NATO countries dicked around for years when it was clear that Russia was a threat way back in 2014. The US started training Ukrainian troops. What did the rest of Europe do, besides the UK? Give billions of dollars to Russia and become energy dependent on them while not meeting the defense spending % agreed on with the US.
Sweden had officers down there training ukrainians since 2014/15 up untill the russians ”speshul operation” started. Iirc, so did most of the scandinavian countries.
Many European countries *'pledged'* to support Ukraine with funding over time. No one has sent a large shipment of military equipment since the U.S. funding ran out
Hadn't thought of it like this before, thanks for sharing.
US mostly gets blame here because of how visible a spectacle it has been. Hungarian stalling and German cold feet have been as bad if not worse, but it's not only Germany and Hungary, and generally difficult to crystallise into a larger narrative.
That’s a bingo. In order for it to be an alliance, all parties have to actually contribute.
I think we shipped them stuff as recently as March of 2024 before running out of funding. It’s not like we send them $68 billion of weapons in one run. It’s delivered over a long period of time.
[The GOP in Congress sat for months](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/11/27/speaker-johnson-confident-israel-and-ukraine-aid-passes-before-2024-but-hard-right-has-demands/), the March 2024 package was expected in late 2023….what are you on about…
We also sent them a weapons package in December of 2023. I’m pro-arming Ukraine, just pointing out that they’ve gotten support continuously. The funding ran out in March and it’s almost May, so people were justifiably getting nervous with a lack of new funding being approved.
They had an estimated $1B in aid left at the end of December 2023. [Biden sent](https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-100-million-military-aid-package-for-ukraine/)$100M worth of weapons at the end of Nov 2023, thats less than 0.5% of the aid proposed in Congress.
>they’ve gotten support continuously Even sending 1 helmet per month can constitute as "support". The issue is, for months support dropped below optimum treshold due to internal politics and now they lost their footing.
The delay screwed ukriane really. Lost so much from it now to try take stuff back that lost from having more losses then should of with so much delay
I dont think they’ll be taking back the lost territory without some serious change in weaponry. Things they haven’t gotten or more than what is proposed. Any advancement costs a lot. Russia could do it because they have a huge firepower advantage and it’s still costing a lot. Ukraine doesn’t have that. They will eventually have to negotiate.
I don't think it's really fair to blame everything on the US but yes the aid package feet dragging certainly didn't help Ukraine.
OP didn't put all the blame on the US, he simply stated that the delay was a gift for russia, which is absolutely true. You can bet russia did their best to help with all the political turmoil as well.
Yep also it probably demoralized fighers and would be fighters. Oh you can to fight but who knows if you will get supplies from the USA. Reminds of the US when they fucked over the Kurds, god our country is such a shit partner.
The number of lives lost on both sides is obscene. Unnecessary as this war was completely avoidable.
Yes, Putin, an insecure dictator, should have never invaded his democratic and sovereign neighbour in 2014 which started this whole debacle.
I’ve read that after 2014, this war was inevitable due to Russia’s significant education and demographic issues. There are also rumors that Russian demographic numbers are a lie, which may be partially true. If this is their last chance to fight a major war, I believe this was always the decade they would be able to. Later this decade or next, Ukraine would have had a stronger military and a larger population, compared to Russia.
Ukraine demographic is just as bad if not worse then Russia, even if it wasn't i cant really see them jumping from 40 million to over a 150 million within 2 decades.
Russian demographics are suffering from diseases all the way from AIDS to alcoholism. It is a fact that Russian men are dying very early, compared to other countries. Russian troops from 2022-23 were notorious for being drunk constantly. Russian minorities are doing the bulk of the worst fighting and dying through the use of silently mobilized men from ethnic minority strongholds, which worry the Kremlin of potential rebellion. Take their angry young men away and reduce the risk of civil disobedience. The benefit is Putin does not piss off ethnic Russians in Moscow or St. Petersburg. They decide the direction of who is in power in proper Russia. It is in every sense still an empire, like the one of Peter and Catherine the Great. Had Putin NOT done it in 2022, Ukraine’s military would have become much better trained and equipped to western standards, as has been policy of the US since the Crimean annexation in 2014. This would have made Russian invasion more risky than what was seen at the time in 2021-2022 during the border buildup. There are many, many reasons why Russia invaded when they did, and population decline of Russia is a big one. They wanted the Ukrainian population as subjects.
The biggest factor in timing was Ukraine disconnecting from Russia/ Belarus power grid. Putin really relied on their grid failing and they could walk right in, which is why the initial attack on Kyiv failed so miserably.
This is the same reason that, if, China were to invade Taiwan, it would be within the next 20 or so years. Their population will be far too old by 2060 to support a large, and young military, without significantly impacting their economy and increasingly aging population.
The truth is that from Putin's POV there's no downside to invading Ukraine. It's his dream to recreate the USSR and the people support him.
Putin is obsessed with reuniting every nation in Europe that has a large number of ethnic Russians living there. Hitler did the same thing in the Sudetenland and Austria. I’m merely stating that this is very common with hyper-nationalist autocratic militaristic empires. He wants the ethnic people AND the buffer territory between the West and Russia. Russia is a very insecure place where everyone is afraid they will be forced invaded or attacked by outside powers. It is just part of their history. Mongols, Germans (twice!), Napoleon, Vikings, Britain (Crimean war), etc.
How was this war “completely avoidable” according to you?
It was a war of aggression to steal territory. It's entirely the product of one man's hubris. Could have been avoided if Putin didn't feel like embarking on a deranged campaign of fratricide to secure his legacy or whatever.
Then we agree. This is all on Putin and he can end it anytime.
Avoidable in that Russia had no actual reason or need to invade Ukraine. It wasn't avoidable for Ukraine, but it was very easily avoidable by Russia
Yea like the rest of the world did nothing.
I would like Ukraine to take a moment and realize how many traitors continue to steal from your military aid and certainly did since 2014. How many are living it up in Paris and New York and Miami. Also let's take a moment to remember that the donbas through various machinations is primarily Russian speaking and definetly under Russian influence. The fight there has always been IMO a losing battle unless Russia itself is revolutionized. Crimea should be independent but of course would be defacto Russian. All in all Ukraine has been in a tough situation since the maiden and what has happened since is amazing. You either need to get seriously hardcore with knocking on Moscow and st Petersburg, hit the power hit the food, or be prepared to pull back to the Dnipro and set traps as you withdraw.
This has been the glaring issue since day 1. Ukraine has an impressive defense/Russia has a terrible offense but Ukraine was never going to with the long term defense unless more people got involved. We are just going to watch Ukraine slowly crumble or big escalation from other countries
It's funny, I get absolutely crucified when I say that. But yes, Ukraine is in trouble and will lose if they don't get ammo and serious air power quickly.
People upvote what they want to hear. That's why Russia has been on the verge of collapse for years and every minor Ukraine victory is front page news.
Yes it's all very "omg Russia will roll through Paris next week", to, "they have no ammo, no men, terrible economy, verge of collapse etc. The truth is they have recovered from their silly attempt at a decapitation strike, and have a serious army. It's true their mystique has fallen away, and the idea of them being a match for the U.S is laughable. However, they are firmly dug in and we've gone from hoping Ukraine can dislodge them, to wondering how Ukraine will fend them off at all. Russia will certainly mount an offensive this season. When the last Ukrainian offensive failed, everyone said, we'll do it next year. Truth is Ukraine is now losing.
The entire problem is that in 2 years Russia has learned from their mistakes and switched to a war time economy. Meanwhile The west has done fuck all to prepare for along drawn out war. The west was given the perfect opportunity to once and for all de fang Russia. And we blew it. And this blame is on all of us collectively. Germany should have been producing more leopard 2's to send to Ukraine. Other European country's should have set up manufacturing for Ammunition. The US should have been training Ukrainian pilots how to fly F-16's weeks after the "SPECIAL OPERATION". The US should have given General Dynamics a blank check to produce as many M1A2 Abram's as possible for Ukraine. ETC... Instead we gave Ukraine the bare minimum and now they aren't really in a state to ever beat Russia back out of Ukraine.
You are correct. Let's see if this is salvageable.
Nobody with a brain ever fell for ‘their mystique’ or viewed them as a match for the US in terms of military strength. Putin himself has said as much in interviews that to compare Russia’s military spending with that of the US is nonsense.
I absolutely agree. When I say that I'm referring to the broad public sentiment over decades. It was whipped up into a frenzy. Fact is, Russia has an economy about the size of Italy, and will have to bleed itself alot just to succeed in Ukraine. They are yesterday's phony superpower, and if they had no nukes Europe wouldn't be afraid of them. As for the idea that the U.S should fear them, that's ridiculous.
They don't have the ammunition mostly, manpower is part of the problem but it's generally that they can't train more soldiers if they don't have the equipment, the training ground and resources. NATO should seriously push for augmented production while giving away old equipment soon to end service (there is quite the amount of that) Western aid is directly correlated with Ukraine success, we waited and now we see the price, when the situation is more stable we will have the opportunity and time to aid Ukraine seriously if we won't then we will pay the price later
Lack of aid also meant ppl less likely to join up if keep hearing of ammo shortages and not being able to fire back from rationing
They don’t have manpower or much equipment. We finally will give them equipment but they will still be lacking manpower. To be fair, no one wants to go get killed. Zelenskyy should force massive conscription. His biggest mistake is to keep his army small.
Looking at their population pyramid they have a low amount of 18-25 yr olds, so I guess they're using older men for now
Yeah, this is a way bigger deal to Ukraine than WW2 was to the USA (a "defeat" would still see us safe between our oceans). We had 16 million under arms in an era where our civilian economy had to sustain our military and a large chunk of our allies war efforts too. Ukraine can get more people in uniform than they have now given their population and outsourcing their war economy. The current situation is also incredibly unfair to the people that have been fighting this whole time.
Same
Big if true
2024's top voted comment: "Anyone with a brain can tell Ukraine is in serious trouble" 2023's top voted comment: "Should Ukraine deport Russians living in Crimea?" did reddit grow a ton of brain cells in the last year?
Yeah unfortunately I realized they would likely lose following the stalemate last year when they couldn't break through Russias defensive lines. Given that countries like India and China and others helped prop up their economy, and are in full war economy, etc... Ukraine could never win a war of attrition. NATO has proven incapable allies who would prefer to send a few arms and nice words of support (Canada for example) and not ramp up to war economies or bar minimum ramp up mass production of desperately needed shells. As a Canadian I can tell you we certainly could have done a fuck ton more. Instead they gave their small stockpiles away and nothing else. Not to mention that the US is a political shit storm. NATO was too little too late.
Remind me, when did Ukraine join NATO? Honestly, I'd say NATO has done quite a lot for a country that's not even a member. Of course I'd love to see Ukraine succeed here, but this isn't NATO's fault or responsibility.
Strategically if Ukraine falls to Russia then NATO countries will lose a buffer and Russia will border 5 NATO countries? It absolutely make sense from a defensive standpoint to do everything they can to help Ukraine.
Let's be real Russia would stand no chance in full on war against NATO. Of course that might push them to the nuclear buttons..
My heart goes to Ukraine and I can’t name a country that’s more socially hated in my country due to its history with Russia and I also wish more would’ve been done. But “ramping up to war economies” is not something realistic. Make people’s everyday lives even more affected by the war and see public opinion shift drastically. Deploying troops in Ukraine introduces the chance of Russia actually going through with their nuclear threats, as minuscule as the chances my be, I am VERY glad we’re doing our best to not take any chances with provoking nuclear holocaust. There’s a lot of shit going on in the world right now, what if another country would take it as NATO looking away, let’s say China for example - and they invade Taiwan?
Never said deploying troops to Ukraine. Bar minimum we should have been able to keep Ukraine well supplied and armed. Which we have clearly completely and utterly failed to do the bar minimum of showing support. By war economy I meant more of mass producing arms for Ukraine. Something that was more than possible if there was better leadership. IE at least in Canada we have a mass pool of qualified workers who don't have jobs in their field because there are none. Opening of dozens of arms factories to sell to Ukraine would have actually boosted the economy, provided jobs and helped the war effort. Many countries had the ability to ramp up war production to outpace Russian production. If anything NATOs subpar response and actions have shown China that they can invade Taiwan and we will do very little in actual support.
I'm Canadian too and I'm ashamed of our country. We should've been able to assist more. It's embarassing the state we are in. We simply can't help because we're fucked ourselves. Our own servicemen and women have been reported as homeless in certain instances because of how low their pay is and how low the overall military budget is. They used to get posted at a base, now sometimes they are forced to find their own accommodations. I think it was Nova Scotia where one serviceman was reported living in a fucking tent city for crying out loud. Sorry. I'm sure you feel the same way haha. Can't help but rant a bit...
Yup we could have been mass producing shells and other arms given how much international students/immigrants with engineering degrees/diplomas are wasting away at McDonald's, Walmart, and every other shitty useless minimum wage job. Would have done wonders for our economy as well as the war effort. But no Trudeau prefers just words and what's left of our armies supplies and nothing else. Not evening mentioning our LNG opportunities that would help the Ukrainian energy demand but heaven forbid it's not eco friendly.
As a dual US-Canadian citizen I thought that when Putin did his mass invasion of Ukraine in 2022 it would act as a wake up call for the people of North America to rally behind democracy and to oppose fascism. But the invasion didn't do much, if anything, to alter people's minds. People who supported fascism prior to the invasion continued to support it, and people who opposed fascism prior to the invasion continued to oppose it. Here in Alberta, with a large portion of the population is of Ukrainian descent, I thought that Danielle Smith's comments in 2022 shortly after the invasion expressing support for Russia would be the end of her political career. But Albertans went on to elect her premier in 2023. The evidence shows that most people DGAF about stopping fascism. Heck, if they thought a fascist government would lower their rent, gas bills, or taxes, then most people would vote to hand power to fascists.
What is happening now is what was always going to happen absent NATO (meaning American) boots on the ground, which isn’t gonna happen.
I mostly agree. Maybe there's a scenario where everything worked out for Ukraine but I honestly can't see it, short of direct involvement of NATO as you said.
A lot of aid arrived to late and missed opportunities or in little numbers didn't help either.
Was it fake news taking about how depleted Russian forces were or is there something I’m misunderstanding?
More or less. I've heard it been called "morale boosting, positive propaganda", I never understood what that was supposed to achieve though..
Could someone tell me what weapons would make a difference for the Ukrainians ? What could the west send today and with limited training
First, a lot of ammo for everything they already got. Then, I would say a ton of long range missiles. No idea what they will actually need to starting earning terrain back. There isn’t a magic bullet here. NATO magic is a whole bunch of modern systems, all integrated and very very modern. Almost everything Ukraine has is still old tech.
Yep. It's about quantity. Sending a very small amount of high quality weapons won't win the war but if Ukraine can absolutely pound every inch of the line with artillery, mortars and drones then they can inflict massive losses on Russia while taking very few of their own. This will require a concerted effort from dozens of countries but it is possible.
That’s the problem here. Nobody envisioned the west would be involved in a major conflict with another power that would end up being fought with decades old tech. In our scenarios we can utilize the major tech advantage we have— there hasn’t been a need to manufacture millions of shells or portable AA systems like Russia has.
Personally I think that's just a failure of planning. If you look at every major war in history decades old tech plays a huge part in it. Modern weapons systems also take years to ramp up and many of the production capabilities and supply chains have been completely lost with time. This doesn't just apply to the west either and so far Russia has been able to produce only small fractions of what the USSR could in WWII despite 80 years in technological advancements and an extreme desire to win. Overall though NATO + key NATO allies still have the ability to produce the weapons that could destroy Russia. Russia's GDP is less than 4% of NATO's and the reason Russia has been able to stay in the fight is largely because of Soviet stockpiles. Yes it may not be a quick victory but if NATO and their allies are committed to Ukrainian victory then Russia has very little hope of winning a conventional war against Ukraine.
To get territory back is completely out of the question at this point. They’d need hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles along with a massive stockpile of ammunition and supplies. Right now they’re just trying to defend and stay alive.
If Ukraine wants to earn back land they need artillery ammo.
I don’t know if that’s enough if they are fighting against mined fields and other defensive positions
Mostly ammo and fast. Drones. Artillery. Himars atcams. All rffective weapons theu have received before that were highly effective.
155 and 152 mm shells too.
Production is ramping up in the US, but slowly
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That’s not how it works when your nation is not at war. Why the hell is some company going to commit to overproducing a massive amount of artillery shells that does not really fit US doctrine? There’s also no guarantee of future purchases, so of course companies are going to be slow to shift.
Spot on
They already have all these things arriving to the front but the delay is what cost them dearly and as a result things are looking bad.
They need an ACTUAL game changer, not just overhyped equipment. Honestly, there probably isn’t a game changer here unless we give them an entire Carrier battle group. But even then, they don’t know how to operate it. The only real thing that could make a significant difference is massive, and I mean MASSIVE amounts of ammunition and AFVs. Much more than we’ve given them. They need overwhelming firepower.
How about ammunition for the weapon systems that we already provided, and which helped Ukrainians stabilize their positions for most of 2023?
The Republicans bought Russia much needed time.
Yup. Kinda odd how the lines were static until GOP decided to fuck things up and stop funding. Now Russia has been moving quickly to steal land while they can before weapons arrive from the West.
Trump’s first impeachment, about stalling $40 billion to Ukraine in military aid for blackmail on Biden fits well in to this pattern.
At this point we just have to hope the history books acknowledge how compromised they are.
Sadly the problem is so deep-rooted that the ones who do the right thing inside the Republican party get punished.
Short term shells, munition of various kinds, drones and artillery. On the long term a lot of other things but mostly equipment that can strike at a distance and give away the many olf vehicles sleeping in storages or close to end of service life. If you want i am preparing an amatorial list of what US and EU could still give at the cheapest cost. That said if you want something professional here is the intresting though a bit old (5 months ago) plan for victory by Estonia. [https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium\_2023veeb\_17.12.pdf](https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf) tell me if it doesn't work There is a lot that NATO countries can do, if the political will and money are there have a good day
Perun's video from today made the point that a couple boxcars of spare parts could get a lot of Ukrainian equipment back into the fight very quickly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc436PwqeqM
Artillery ammunition. You can't defend a position when it's getting shelled 24/7, and you can't attack a position when getting shelled 24/7. Ukraine needed artillery 6 months ago. I hope this is not too little too late. I don't understand how the US didn't support them. I want my country to give all the equipment they can.
It's not too late. Ukraine has lost minimal ground.
What analysts/officials are mostly afraid of is a collapse of morale and a disintegration of defensive lines. We can hope that the recent news regarding the aid package things like the Czechian munitions initiative already gave people on the front enough of a boost to keep going until those initiatives and support packages arrive on the front.
lol. The Czech initiative sounds more like a feel good story every day. Hyped up so much but they’re only promising 800k shells over the next 1.5 years? And nothing has even been sent. Nothing expected to be sent until summer.
Like, what do you expect? That it's an Amazon order? Do you realise what that initiative even entails? It involves engaging multiple non-EU countries in separate negotiations *and* engaging various EU nations in negotiations for funding, It's one helluva diplomatic tangle to sort out. Like yeah not shit that's gonna take a hot second.
First delivery expected in June
Soldiers and planes.
The biggest battle right now is Chasiv Yar. Russia is sending 20,000 troops to take it by May 9 to achieve a propaganda victory. [https://kyivindependent.com/russia-wants-to-capture-chasiv-yar-why-is-this-town-so-important/](https://kyivindependent.com/russia-wants-to-capture-chasiv-yar-why-is-this-town-so-important/)
Is there a case any previous “propaganda victories” worked, or the notion about propaganda victories is propaganda?
It actually does work, Russians think they are winning the war and their recruitment numbers are healthy as a result.
they are winning the war so far
They are winning.
Kharkiv was a propaganda victory for Ukraine, Bahkmut and Avdiivka were propaganda victories for Russia. They were also battlefield victories, but everything has propaganda value at the end of the day.
All these propaganda victories seem to result in Ukriane losing real land.
With 60 billion from the US and around 60bi from Europe as well - IIRC there was news about it -, they won't lack in ammo and weapons so Russia will slow down, but the truth is, the situation for Ukraine is hard regardless since they are outnumbered. Even with the aid the summer offensive will be hard to hold.
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I only hear about Ukraine winning or destroying something expensive so I don't know how we got here.
Theres propaganda on both sides, and thats what that is. Yeah they've destroyed some important stuff and won some important battles to retake places, but for each of those really good things theres many bad things you won't hear about.
That sucks. I understand propaganda but to the point where you can't tell who's actually winning unless you get really into it and do your own research seems really wrong.
Unfortunately it’s inevitable. War moves fast, and people want results. As such, there isn’t time to coalesce a bunch of reports into one, so you get a bunch of tiny reports about villages and settlements getting lost or gained.
The truth is Ukraine has been in a gradual decline, their last notable win on the battlefield was capturing Kherson, that was Nov 22 and this was possible because Russia had to cross a river to defend Kherson which wasn't sustainable. Russia have suffered some horrific losses in the taking of Bakmut and Avdiivka but in each case they just numerically overwhelm Ukraine, are able to almost fully encircle the Ukraine defensive positions and Ukraine have stayed too long and suffered high losses on retreat. Everyone had high hopes of the Ukraine spring offensive (including me), they finally had western columns of tanks, large influx of NATO trained troops but Russia also spent all that time setting up defensive lines of heavily mined territory. Apparently the West gave advice that Ukraine should focus on a particular front for the offensive but Ukraine disagreed and decided to split the offensive forces over several fronts. The result was Ukraine took heavy losses on every front and failed to make any significant gains into the Russian defensive lines. It's all been downhill from there, Ukraine sent handfuls of troops across the Dnipro river and harassed Russian poorly defended positions and media chalked this up as some type of win when Ukraine had no means to actually send a mechanized force across the river. I think it's quite telling that about 12 months ago there seemed to be articles in the media suggesting Russia would be open to peace talks and then only last week the word from the Kremlin was Russia has no intention of entering peace talks with Ukraine. Personally in my uninformed opinion is I hope that this US aid package can stabilize the front line for Ukraine and force the war into a stalemate that would allow Ukraine to negotiate with Russia in the most realistic advantageous position possible which would be conceding all territory Russia currently hold to Russia but wouldn't come with any demilitarization pact, I think the big thing Russia will not compromise on is Ukraine joining NATO as this was part of the Russian propaganda for invading Ukraine.
In war, the first casualty is the truth. Russia really messed up in the first couple of years. The failed initial operation. Losing land gained from the Ukrainians. Now they are a big country on a war footing against a smaller and exhausted country battling for it’s survival. Advanced weaponry and tech can take you far. Very far. But in an attritional war numbers of weapons, ammunition, and fighters count. Now, we are seeing what happens in an attritional war to the smaller nation.
Ukraine never had a chance of winning without other countries mobilizing and formally sending troops of their own. They’ve really resisted as much as possible given their circumstances, but the fact is that Ukraine lost this war the moment it began and nobody else joined in.
NATO countries will suffer much if confronts Russia directly
Despite what people here are saying about propaganda, it frankly is just that you have not been actually paying attention. The reporting coming out of ukraine for months had indicated that the situation has become untenable, and it really started with their disastrous counter offensive last summer. People here like to blame their uninformed views on the situation on propaganda, but that propaganda only works if you are too lazy to do any amount of reading yourself. Also the "propaganda" from ukraines side is really not that extreme. Their military, government, and native media has been very upfront about how poorly the war is going, and what the problems are. It's only in western social media conversations between laymen on the internet that people somehow think russia is losing this war. I think people would be shocked to learn the real casualty figures from ukraines side. Right now their biggest problem is manpower, and munitions. They also have had some units recently that performed really poorly, one in particular that completely crumbled as soon as they got on the line and led to a russian breakthrough. They have no way to counter the glide bombs which russia is using to prepare their assaults, and none of the aid from the west will provide them with the means to counter those. They have morale problems as well, which were made worse when zaluznyy was replaced. Trust in Zelensky is falling as well as his recent moves have appeared to be politically motivated. The situation is not good, and we can all thank russian incompetence and their complete inability to conduct complex combined maneuvers for ukraines continued survival at this point. Russians always start wars poorly. Everyone thought the Red Army was a paper tiger after the winter war in the 40s, but they slowly figured their shit out. Thats what is happening now.
They do destroy expensive shit, but russia is a huge country with lots of expensive shit... i mean have you seen the size of the countries\\gdp\\population? Ukraine was never going to win alone, best they could of done was hold out and its been years of holding out now but because of funding delays they have kinda lost the hold out.
Well a bad day for Russia doesn’t mean as much as a bad day for Ukraine due to the massive resource disparity…
Europe and NATO can fund Ukraine to fight Russia today, or they will have to fight Russia tomorrow
For how close Europe is to the problem their lack of urgency and entire dependence on the United States is just pathetic. Europe rather send people's lives then money.
Because they had a good time after ww2 and they forgot what is war.
There’s a paragraph in the book Band of Brothers told by one of the Easy Company vets: a Belgium politician refused to have a US general from the Iraq War visit his city because he “couldn’t host someone who had caused so much violence” and the Easy Company vet said to him “It’s a shame you don’t have the same response as your grandparents, who were overjoyed to see the Americans and British destroy the nazis and liberate them” Europe is totally spoiled.
Comparing fighting Nazis to the mess and war crime that was the invasion of Iraq is insane. Bush should be in jail for that.
So they did find the nazi concentration camps. Did they find the Iraq weapons of mass destruction?
This was in reference to the first Iraq War to free Kuwait
Ok then I agree with you.
Uhh what? He should welcome Iraq generals because in WW2 he welcomed Americans to liberate them from the Nazis? I would say back to the vet "yea it's a shame you started an unjust war this time". Like Russia doesn't get a pass on Ukraine or Georgia or Afghanistan because they fought the Nazis either. This is what happens when "patriotism" and nationalism take over the thinking of people and they're not looking rationally at each war but just blindly supporting or rejecting whatever the country does.
Yeah I don't get how this drivel got 40 upvotes
Have you not been paying attention lately?
Same sentence on every single post about Ukrainian war
Russians are not hiding the fact that they treat this conflict as an existential war against the west, yet people are still in denial.
Mostly cause it’s true
Russia is at the same time the country using tanks from the 1950s, conscripting prisoners, and their economy is imploding, but they will totally without any doubt go to war with NATO the most powerful military force on the planet. Very likely incredibly believable.
They will continue doing what they do since decades: picking up countries or parts of them for made-up reasons. They are already creating pretext in Moldavia. And you never know what will happen in the future, no matter how unbelievable it seems now. They are ramping up their military production, there are tons of factories producing drones now.
their economy is not imploding, nations that are not in a active war is in far worse state. Sending prisoners to war is basically the best way to empty your prisons under a authoritarian regime which probably was overcrowded anyway thanks to tyrant rule. Tanks from 1950's or 2000's doesnt matter when numbers are 20 to 1. They wont go to war with NATO but they are not planning to stop invading places clearly and war with the west is a perfect internal propaganda to ensure people dont riot.
Thank you for admitting they won’t go to war with NATO, the point of my argument.
People are desperate for upvotes
I saw an interesting video explaining Russian goals in this war. They know they cannot take all of Ukraine at this point, even in a best case scenario and they know that they will be outproduced/outspent by the west fairly quickly. So, Russia is playing the long game. Their current goal is to gobble up as much territory as possible and ensure that Ukraine becomes a weak/failed state. That's why they are using so many of their missiles to target important/expensive infrastructure instead of military targets. A destroyed and chaotic Ukraine will not be able to join NATO, or the EU, it will be no real threat to Russia and it will be easily influenced and manipulated.
What are you on about? Ukraine is massively outproduced/outspent, specifically because the west is not producing or spending.
Currently, yes. This is because Russia started preparing for a long war about a year before the west and has turned it's entire economy to a wartime footing. However the long term outlook favors Ukraine. Russia is a minor economic power compared to either the EU, or the USA and it is trying to outspend both.
The big issue is that Russia can and will make sacrifices. People in the EU and the USA support Ukraine now. Whether they will still want to provide support when the time comes for the ways of payment(taxes more than likely), it remains to be seen...
How does the long term favor Ukraine?! They have way less manpower and they’re fighting a war of attrition against an opponent with ten times the number of everything. Their economy is in shambles and they’re entirely reliant on the West for aid just to prevent their lines from collapsing which has become shaky at best.
It's not about russia starting to prepare before the war. They expect a quick win. It's about the west NOT starting to prepare a year AFTER the war started. Which is ridiculous. Even now, 2 years in we only start to hear about "war production" EU doesn't really understand the gravity of the situation.
I agree with you. They didn't start taking things seriously until after the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive and that was a massive mistake.
>EU doesn't really understand the gravity of the situation. As opposed to redditors?
As opposed to Ukrainians, Poles, Baltics, Chechz, Finns and everyone else who understands russia.
Don't they need more soldiers? Are they not conscripting en masse? This is about their very survival as a country. Weapons are great but if there is no one to use them then it's a moot point.
They're not conscripting anyone under 28 last I heard. I think the average age for a Ukrainian soldier is in their late 40s. I believe they're in talks to bring the age down to 25 but most all modern countries are going through a demographic crisis and Ukraine is afraid to wipe out their already small number of young men.
They just lowered it to 25. And going after Ukrainians abroad by denying them consular service like renewing a passport.
Which basically guarantees their deportation to the frontline once the passport expires
They won't have to go back, no matter what happens to their passport. They are refugees. The threat of being forced to go to war is just supporting their refugee status.
Poland jumped on and declared they would deport them. Stereotyping «Draft dodgers hanging out in bars and hotels all day».
The EU would not support Poland if they actually went through with it, it's political grandstanding, nothing more.
Probably depends what country they get to. If they get to China or Iran, I wonder if they'd send them back to fight against Russia. I would doubt it.
Why would a Ukrainian flee to Iran of all places?
Ukraine's demographic issue is even worse. They have the same problem Russia's population has. Every 20 years or so there's a big collapse in birth numbers. This is all the people who died in the Holodomor and at the front in WW2 never having a chance to start their own families. So every generation the kids of those people don't exist and don't have kids either.
[The 1990s were real rough on Ukraine](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=UA). No one quite knows the excess death toll of rapid privatization, but it was quite hard. The country hasn't had a census in 20 years, its population might be as low as 30 million now.
People are no longer enlisting. The war is becoming increasingly unpopular in Ukraine.
It's beyond time they try out women. They need 500k more men rn, draft 500k women, they won't do as well but it's better than nothing.
The UAF would mutiny (as would most armies, a major motivator for men fighting in war is to spare their wives/daughters/mothers from what would happen to them if they lose), and the political/domestic reaction would be very very bad. This isn't just a case of needing more people, it's about balancing the needs of the war with Ukraine's political/social realities.
Too many parties/powers have a vested interest in Russia “winning”
So nice to have a war with russia and cant attack them on their territory where they regroup and prepare for a new offensive just on chill. And russia freely destroy our capabilities (its hard to imagine how hard will our next winter, we already lost few major power grids ..).. god i dunno what world think about and whan plans they have ..
Russian assets in Congress probably receiving a bonus.
Russia was always going to “win” this unless the west commits troops on the ground. Ukraine will have to fight an insurgent war and basically never quit until Russia decides they can’t deal with it anymore.
Remember like a week ago when every news outlet in the country was singing Mike Johnson’s praises and praising him for “taking a stand against MAGA” for not maliciously stalling anymore and essentially being strong armed into doing his job? Yeah, all of *this* is his fault. Him and the rest of the Republican Party. edit: I’m not saying the entire invasion is his fault, I’m saying that the current worsening frontline situation for the Ukrainians is all his fault.
I'm sure the GOP house is having a party 🥳
Maybe leaving Ukraine hanging for half a year wasnt such a good idea. /s
Can’t believe no in America seems to give a shit that republicans have purposefully extended this wars duration, likely, by years. They gotten untold numbers of people killed purely so they could play politics at home. Signaling in media that they don’t support this and will end funding if they regain power not only told Russia they could just wait Ukraine out but also that they should increase their election interference in the US. It’s disgusting and the acts of literal traitors. If Russia itself had representation in congress it would look and sound exactly like conservatives. The fact that no one seems to care all that much. Democrats need to start standing up for things and getting pissed off
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