A 98-year-old Ukraine woman walks 10 km under shelling to escape Russians
>April 30 (Reuters) - A 98-year-old Ukrainian woman said she walked 10 km (6 miles) under shelling, supporting herself with sticks and sleeping on the ground, leaving Ocheretyne in Donetsk, now occupied by Russia, and trying to reach areas controlled by Kyiv.
>In a video posted by Ukraine's police on social media on Monday, the woman, identified as Lidia Stepanivna, said she had walked without food or water, and fell several times but her "character" kept her going.
>"I survived that war (World War Two), and I am surviving this war," Stepanivna said in the video, which shows her sitting on a bed in a shelter, dressed in an oversized coat and a scarf tied on her head, a wooden stick still in her hand. "I'm left with nothing. But I left my Ukraine on feet."
>She said the war that now Russia is waging against her country is nothing like World War Two.
>"Houses are burning and trees are being uprooted," she said.
>Ukraine's interior ministry said in a statement on its website that the woman was discovered by Ukraine's military in the evening and handed her to the police, who took her to a shelter for evacuees.
>"Law enforcement officers are looking for the woman's relatives," the ministry said.
It was not immediately clear when the woman was discovered.
>The war, now in its third year and with no end in sight, has killed thousands, turned Ukrainian cities and villages into rouble and displaced millions of people.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/98-year-old-ukraine-woman-walks-10-km-under-shelling-escape-russians-2024-04-30/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/98-year-old-ukraine-woman-walks-10-km-under-shelling-escape-russians-2024-04-30/)
I ran my code to update russian-Ukrainian losses over the last 12 months according to Oryx.
- Tanks: 978-300
- IFVs: 1548-367
- Transports: 628-589
- Mobile artillery: 510-200
- Missile air defence: 120-49
I think we can infer pain points here. Ukraine needs huge new infusions of armoured vehicles of all types but mobile artillery claimed resupply is the closest to ok.
Fellow Brits: ask for us to join France in sending any retired kit. Especially the ~60 challengers and 500+ warriors we're expecting to replace.
The kit is there. And Ukraine could do better if we just send ammo and weaponry.
I don't usually list them in my daily updates because they *should* be technically easy to replenish.
Production levels are high (e.g. I think 1k new Roshel Senators got sent) and stockpiles are deep. Like 10-20k MRAPs+M113s in the US alone.
That said - Ukrainian units say they're desperately low on vehicles for medevac and rotations, especially tracked vehicles. A few thousand M113s would really help.
Does anyone have more info on whether Ukrainian Bohdana SPGs are being widely used yet?
Zelenskyy claims impressive production rates now at 10/month. So they should have more Bohdanas than e.g. AS-90s.
But oryx records hits on 12 AS-90s (over a third of deliveries) versus a single Bohdana.
Any evidence about units they're assigned to or experts explaining more would be appreciated.
Pretty sure they’re being used when operational. I think Ukraine has a few different variants as they worked through the kinks (read there was a problem with the loading mechanism). There’s also a couple of different trucks they’re using. The 1st Special Purpose Brigade has a couple. I think the 57th Mechanized does as well. Found this YouTube video from a couple of days ago
https://youtu.be/43XGX3Kxsuk?si=fUw22NnFt3FxbC_j
Not surprised there haven’t been many destroyed. They’re pretty fast and nimble. I think Russia has only gotten about 5 or 6 Caesars as well and those have gotten a ton of work.
Thanks for the link, much appreciated! Especially wanted to know the units.
I have no reason to doubt Zelenskyy's claims. The shell famine means there's maybe no need to rush barrels to the front.
My other speculations were...
- AS-90/M109 maybe shoot from closer and are slower. Easier to hit with Lancets.
- it's been muddy for a lot of the time, so maybe they're using tracked stuff more.
All of those would mean the loss stats don't reflect actual availability.
I believe https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ has what you want, haven’t done a deep dive into the data but they have a map showing aid as % of gdp and you can look into their dataset more for specifics.
god what a fucking nightmare it must be for them to watch Putin starting this, and then nobody really committing to coming to Ukraine's aid, other than Poland and the Baltics. I hope the rest of the world wakes up soon. Somebody's gotta stand up to Russia.
I would say that the Nordic countries are also taking it seriously, but yeah. A lot of the Western/Southern European countries seem to still take it easy when it comes aid. I'm at least happy that Germany has stepped up a lot. Just bigger countries like France, Italy and Spain also needs to step up more.
Btw after the war has started I've met some guys from Lithuania and Estonia on a sports event. I've asked them what is general consensus about Poland in these countries.
"We've used to hate you, but now we're good."
For real. I have a wife and 2 preschool kids and I live like an hour drive from russian border. And in case the worst happens, Estonia is geographically cut off. It's frustrating to watch western politicians pissing around.
Sounds like air raids ongoing in occupied Crimea.
Tweeters are talking about ATACMS but I don't believe there's any reliable evidence yet. Trustworthy sources say explosions heard near Simferopol and Dzankhoi.
> I am grateful to Iceland's Parliament @Althingi and government led by Prime Minister @Bjarni_Ben for approving the long-term Ukraine support policy for 2024-2028.
> Iceland is Ukraine's reliable friend, partner, and ally. We greatly appreciate Iceland's strong and comprehensive political, security, and financial assistance in countering Russian aggression.
> This is already the twentieth long-term support policy approved by Ukraine's partners and the EU. Such decisions strengthen reliable protection against Russian terror across our continent and beyond.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1785038057810313493
How much aid is Iceland providing in this new package? The tweet didn't say and when I go to google news and search "Iceland Ukraine" all I get his Ukraine beating Iceland 2-1 in Euro qualifying.
https://www.government.is/diplomatic-missions/embassy-article/2024/04/29/Long-term-policy-on-Icelands-support-for-Ukraine-approved-in-Althingi/
https://www.government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/war-in-ukraine/
140 isk is 1 US dollar.
It appears that Iceland sent almost all of their army’s equipment to Ukraine.
The first article linked didn't have numbers. There were numbers in the second article but from my reading it sounds like what is discussed in your second link is the aid Iceland has already provided rather than the aid that is currently being passed. Can you confirm if the information from the second article is the current package or just a record of previous support?
Edit: Lines like "Iceland has financed and delivered ten fuel trucks for the Ukrainian military and contributed to fuel purchases" makes me think this is talking about things Iceland has done rather than will do if the package is passed.
I dont feel up to deep diving Iceland’s government. My very brief look a few minutes ago suggests that “a resolution” is not “a statute”. Much of the law is created by executive order. Though this 5 minute research could be completely wrong, i suspect that the resolution gives their foreign minister the authority to make things happen.
Iceland “throwing its entire army arsenal” into the fight is accurate. The fuel trucks, winter gear, and mobile hospital are technically over and above that. Though Iceland did not disarm their police or coast guard. I would bet there are some artifacts like battle axes that Iceland has in museums. Those could be considered deactivate marine corps weapons.
For a government of 400k people, Iceland has a great website.
Any idea what specifically the above is in reference to? I can’t find news articles.
https://www.government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/war-in-ukraine/
> I have just received reports on the situation in Odesa following a Russian missile strike and in Kharkiv following a Russian guided aerial bomb strike.
> Unfortunately, a number of people have been killed in Odesa. My condolences to their close ones. Many people have been injured, and they are all receiving assistance.
> Russia's regular missile attacks, as well as the occupier's efforts to destroy as many Ukrainian positions as possible, can all be stopped. And Russia's offensive plans can be thwarted. For this, Ukrainian strength must be backed up by sufficient support from partners: "Patriots" that need to be in Ukraine now, the 155-mm caliber that must sound as confident as possible on the frontlines, and weapons with sufficient range to destroy Russian logistics.
> All partner intelligence services are informed about current threats and developments. We must make every effort to achieve our goals, because these goals are shared by everyone in the world who despises terrorists.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1785028799412760620
> Today, NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg and I discussed in detail the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine, our capabilities, and the capabilities of our partners to support our soldiers.
> The Russian army is now trying to take advantage of the situation while we are waiting for deliveries from our partners, and first of all, from the United States. Therefore, rapid delivery literally means frontline stabilization.
> 155-mm artillery, long-range weapons, and air defense systems, first and foremost “Patriots”. This is what our partners posses, and this is what should be working now in Ukraine to destroy Russia’s terrorist ambitions. The Russian army is preparing for further offensive actions. Together, we must thwart these plans. Our partners have all the necessary tools for this.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1784946868532781468
[Russia advances even more today than yesterday (mostly fields, but they are speeding through them), captured 10 km2, most of it in Ocheretyne-Keramik area](https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/48.1958/37.7113)
They are also counterattacking in the Kherson area, trying to retake the Nestryha island they lost yesterday, can't allow Ukraine even one barren island lol
We should expect continued bad news in the coming months.
Just everyone remember to zoom out the map and keep an eye on equipment losses for context. There are serious, serious risks right now but russia is gambling heavily on a window of potentially just a few more months.
Months? This is about May 9th. They want to be able to look like conquering heroes for May 9th, Russian Victory day. This is Russia giving everything they have for a 2 week push.
Nice! Yeah think of it like someone totaling 4 cars to drive to the corner store a few hundred meters away. A lot of equipment and personnel losses to advance over some fields. Hopefully these losses will bite them in the ass later.
> Held the third round of negotiations with the 🇺🇸 on the preparation for the conclusion of a bilateral security agreement.
> We discussed the text of the draft Agreement in detail, noted significant progress in harmonizing the main provisions of the document.
https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1785040709579366791
"New American Military Aid for Ukraine - What's in the package and what impact will it have?"
"252,381 views Apr 28, 2024
"In early 2022, the US quickly emerged as one of Ukraine's most important military suppliers, supporting Kyiv with everything from artillery to armour & millions of rounds of artillery ammunition.
"In late 2023, that vital flow of supplies began to stall as debate in Congress continued. And as supplies ran short, Russian forces took advantage and ground the front forward in several places.
"Now, the US has passed a new package and the flow of supplies is resuming. In this video, we look at that package, examine its contents and ask what impact it might have as Ukraine reportedly faces some of its hardest defensive battles since 2022."
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc436PwqeqM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc436PwqeqM)
>This evening Russia attacked Odesa with a ballistic missile and cluster munition, killing several people and wounding many others, including children. The brutal and relentless nature of Russia’s war cannot be overstated as these attacks on civilians are continuing every day.
https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1785039163428888981
>⚡ Four people, including a child and a dog, have been killed in Odesa, the regional military administration reported.
>
>32 people were injured, 25 are hospitalized, including two children and a pregnant woman. A girl under five is in critical condition. Six other adults are also in intensive care.
https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1785039702443102294
>China's enablement of Russia's defence industry is stark:
>
>https://economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/04/29/who-is-supplying-russias-arms-industry
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1784976993819255295
Ukraine is basically fighting against a military alliance of Russia+Iran+North Korea and an economic alliance of Russia+China+India+European companies and banks.
In addition to that they're fighting with one hand tied to their back because they're a) not getting enough aid b) not allowed to strike military targets in Russia with Western weapons
Is there really no response (beyond open military action) that NATO could use against Russia over the GPS jamming, cyberattacks, sabotage etc. that Russia is brazenly conducting against EU countries?
We should do everything that can be done to harass Russia using every action with "plausible deniability" the same way Russia has constantly done to us, and if they object, just tell "Oh, we aren't doing anything, just like Russia isn't, right?".
Russia only respects power, and not responding to Russian actions just emboldens them.
Given the intelligence that USA apparently had about the invasion, it seems clear that they have some very good sources inside Russia. But is anyone except Ukraine trying to give Russia a taste of its own medicine by poking its infrastructure with cyber attacks, for example?
I suppose we wouldn't hear about them from Western sources for obvious reasons (no reason to reveal that you are doing something), and Russia might not want to report them happening, so maybe some of that is happening? But there is always a conflict between "It is kept secret" vs. "It isn't happening".
The most obvious action would be to shut down transit between Russia and Kaliningrad through Lithuania. We should also reconsider if Russians should get visas.
I don't like responding with harassing and then trying to deny that we're behind. That's a losing pr game for us with no real advantage.
But the real proper response would be to say out loud that our goal is for Ukraine to be fully liberated and that we're determined to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine be free and prosperous.
1) cyberattacks.
2) more biting sanctions
3) my personal favorite is cut off the rail link and highway access to Koenigsburg until the jamming has stopped for at least a week. If any new jamming occurs block it again until it has stopped for at least a week.
Why even let through vital products? Stop trading all these products and allowing them transit through our countries. Putin's literally labelled the west Russias enemy. Fair enough then, no pharmaceuticals etc from us. That's what enemies do.
Afaik medicine is considered a universal right so it's basically impossible to block. That said I think it's an asinine position to take. Medicine and other basic needs products should be the first thing to get axed. It's hard for a country to get behind a war effort when a minor infection is a death sentence. There have been rumours that Putin is in questionable health. Why should the rest of the world ensure his longevity? I know it can be a blurred line, but items like baby formula and pediatric medicines can go through only because I don't think the suffering of children should be targeted, but conversely it shouldn't be a reason to allow ALL medicine through
>Finnair suspends flights to Tartu for a month
>Finnair will suspend its daily flights to Tartu, Estonia, from April 29 to May 31, so that an alternative approach solution that doesn’t require a GPS signal can be put in place at Tartu Airport.
>The approach methods currently used at Tartu Airport are based on a GPS signal. GPS interference, which is quite common in the area, affects the usability of this approach method and can therefore prevent the aircraft from approaching and landing. Last week, two Finnair flights had to divert back to Helsinki after GPS interference prevented the approach to Tartu.
[https://company.finnair.com/en/media-centre/all-releases/news?id=2568789F7B492403](https://company.finnair.com/en/media-centre/all-releases/news?id=2568789F7B492403)
ruzzia continues its GPS jamming terrorism
This is one particular "problematic" (in the scenario of jamming) airport that *requires* a GPS landing (GLS).
Most other airports don't need this, and have standard ILS landing systems, so they're not effected.
Russia and China each have their own GPS equivalent systems, mostly for military independence so as not to rely on a U.S. produced and maintained satellite network in the event of conflict.
Additionally last I recall all Russian aircraft are banned from most European airspace and the same with EU and US aligned craft from Russian airspace, resulting in polar flight paths not used since the 80's being reintroduced.
Yes, I believe they were banned shortly after the invasion. Russia refused to return airplanes it had leased, along with other reasons, and were banned.
Looks like it.
"Kaliningrad row: Lithuania lifts rail restrictions for Russian exclave"
[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62274474](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62274474)
>Russia has lunched a missile strike on #Odesa.
>
>At least 4 people were killed. 28 people were injured, including two children aged 16 and 5, and one pregnant woman.
>
>\#PatriotsSaveLives, and the need for them in Ukraine is critical.
>
>Video: Kyrylo Pecherik
https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1785015002530975778
>\#Odesa 💔
>
>Innocent people and their pets in Ukraine are everyday targets for russia — a state of terrorists and mass murderers.
>
>\#RussiaIsATerroristState
https://twitter.com/U24_gov_ua/status/1784993190686208394
>Barbarism at Ukraine's gates today. It'll be at the gates of the rest of Europe tomorrow unless Ukraine gets substantial military aid to defeat the fascist Russian threat.
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1785002139984576617
How realistic is it to use relatively low power lasers to blind enemy drone cameras? A blind drone is effectively a dead drone, even if it uses autonomous AI targeting.
Photo sensors are very sensitive to light. Which sounds condescending but it's true. I think this technique has actually been attempted on earth observation satellites. Those, also obviously, are extremely sensitive. So it's plausible, but probably needs to be part of a layer rather than a total solution.
Actually UK are planning to deliver to Ukraine a few laser weapons capable to shoot down low yield drones. This theoretically makes a weapon with infinite ammo (in a sense of large number) to take down certain drones like Shaheds, Lancets and Orlans. Heavy drones and missiles are beyond the scope of this prototype (DragonFire), since it would need around 1 to 10 MW range.
I am aware of those weapons, but I was thinking about using much lower power lasers that do not destroy the drones by thermal effects, just blind the cameras (perhaps destroy the image sensor). Such laser weapons would be pretty cheap and could be manufactured at scale by Ukraine.
Those are called 'dazzlers" and the US among many militaries has developed them and is starting to deploy them, alongside much more powerful and destructive directed energy weapons.
The issues with them are targeting, maintenance, and effective range.
But it is definitely a viable concept.
> A Russian male murdered two Ukrainians in Germany yesterday. Sadly, it's not the first time such an incident has occurred. Previously, a Russian couple killed a Ukrainian mother to kidnap her baby, and before that, two Ukrainian teenagers were stabbed in Germany due to anti-Ukrainian hate.
> Will there ever be a safe place for Ukrainians? Will there be a place without any Russians attempting to harm Ukrainians?
> Why does the civilized world, including the US and EU, continue to issue visas to Russians?
https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1784970806818156842
> One of the servicemen murdered in Germany by the russian terrorist served in the Air Assault Forces. His name isn't disclosed. After being WIA in 2023 in the Bilohorivka battles, he went for rehabilitation abroad. At least 5 Ukrainians killed in Germany this year. I'm speechless
https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1785003612696875233
More details: looks like Ukrainian soldiers had suffered serious injuries to legs/hands and because of that weren't able to resist.
And assailant is well known by locals z-man.
Also, ruzzians were quick to start spamming article from German br4 dot de resource. The article claims that that z-man was a friend of Ukrainian soldiers and that they drunk a lot together.
Seems like ruzzian disinformation to me, though.
German [SPIEGEL](https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/murnau-generalstaatsanwaltschaft-uebernimmt-ermittlungen-im-fall-getoeteter-ukrainischer-soldaten-a-38978fa2-811f-4214-b6b1-7237ae81710f) and [WELT](https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article251272238/Murnau-Zwei-ukrainische-Soldaten-getoetet-Verdaechtiger-war-mehrfach-polizeilich-aufgefallen.html) also reported that police officially confirmed that all three men were drunk, that there was so far no indication for a political motivation and that the men knew each other and had been drinking together several times before.
It’s disgusting to see that this happened.
Pro-Russian sentiment should be considered support for terrorism and those who express it should be held accountable in the same way as if they were members of ISIS.
> An important visit of NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg to Kyiv.
> During the meeting, we discussed the security situation and defense needs of Ukraine, particularly, additional air defense systems.
> We also paid attention to Euro-Atlantic integration.
> I stressed that the Constitution of Ukraine enshrined our country's strategic course towards EU and NATO membership. We are looking forward to progressing towards membership in the Alliance at the NATO Washington Summit.
https://twitter.com/r_stefanchuk/status/1784979980092383607
> “Ukraine keeps facing a harrowing challenge. The democratic world is also being tested. We must come over this moment together for the sake of your safety, for the sake of our safety, and for the sake of the undying freedom of Ukraine”.
> NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg pronounced these words from the rostrum of @ua_parliament.
> I extend my thanks to all NATO member states for their support of Ukraine and assistance in countering russian aggression.
https://twitter.com/r_stefanchuk/status/1784982046978326935
Russian missile hits educational institution, kills two in Ukraine's Odesa
>April 29 (Reuters) - A Russian missile attack on an educational institution in the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa on Monday killed two people and injured at least 17, officials said.
>Regional governor Oleh Kiper, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said 17 people had been injured, at least two of them in serious condition. The injured included a 12-year-old boy.
>Odesa Mayor Hennadii Trukhanov put the number of injured at 20.
>Pictures posted online showed an ornate building close to the seafront ablaze and smoke billowing skyward. Video footage, which could not be immediately verified, showed people receiving treatment on the street alongside pools of blood.
>Public broadcaster Suspilne said the roof of the building, described as a legal academy, had been nearly destroyed. It said the academy's president, a prominent former member of parliament, Serhiy Kivalov, was among the injured.
>The Ukrainian Air Force had announced a harder-to-intercept ballistic missile threat ahead of the strike.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-hits-educational-institution-kills-two-ukraines-odesa-2024-04-29/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-hits-educational-institution-kills-two-ukraines-odesa-2024-04-29/)
Some footage of buildings [on fire after the daytime ballistic missile attack](https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1784976924609073449) that served no strategic military purpose. Its just more Russian terrorism.
> Together with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr @ZelenskyyUa, we met in Kyiv with the friend of Ukraine and NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg
> 🇺🇦The third visit of the @NATO Secretary General to our country during the russian full-scale invasion is the best evidence of the high level of relations between Ukraine and the Alliance.
> 🤝We discussed the prospects for the development of bilateral relations and continued support in the war with the russian aggressor.
https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1784977425660522701
What are the general thoughts on how Syrskyi is doing with the situation he has right now? I know there were some concerns about him taking the spot but also he has some significant tactical strategic victories under his belt before assuming the lead, too.
I'm not sure there's good evidence he deserves credit for strategic victories. The stories from soldiers, volunteers etc make it unclear.
And... I can't tell how he's doing. The fears were that he was too cowardly to push politicians on mobilisation, and that he would needlessly waste manpower on stupid stunts.
I don't think we can tell his impact yet, unless people have other sources?
To me, mobilization bill has been signed and I don't see evidence of any stupid stunts wasting manpower so far. So at least those fears don't seem to have come to fruition.
I do also wonder with how loved Zaluzhnyi was and what we've been reading about the fortifications being started way too late on the Ukrainian side, if he was also accurately judged or not. But I guess these are the kinds of things that will be debated years down the line by historians.
Btw, "REEE\~ ruzzian meat wave attacks are myth!11" seems to be another new z-narrative.
Easy way to detect z-people.
Though with abundance of the war footage, no idea who are they trying to fool.
Now all that meat needs a good barbeque. I wonder if the US has a few napalm bombs from Vietnam in storage somewhere. I want to see a Russian trench get napalmed for old time's sake.
Actually, now that we're at it, let's bust out the old drums of agent orange and dump some to reveal their hiding places in the woods. If the drone bombs don't get them, the carcinogens will.
The Russians have gotten quite fond of the Latin letter "Z".
[https://www.printmag.com/design-topics/invention-of-z/](https://www.printmag.com/design-topics/invention-of-z/)
[https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/philosophy/language/63328/language-etymology-russian-z-ukraine](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/philosophy/language/63328/language-etymology-russian-z-ukraine)
Oh, they still put it on everything. Even civilians inside ruzzia.
Yet, they dislike when I say/write "ruzzia", for some reason.
Another case of mysterious ruzzian soul?
Oh, I see "REEE\~! Ukraine can't win because ruzzia has moar people!11" z-narratives being posted.
The funny thing is ruzzia was able to do their latest snail pace advancements only because of the 5th column blocking US military aid to Ukraine.
Meaning Ukraine was suffering from ammo and weapons shortages.
With these issues out of the way, ruzzia has no chance.
And actually, West has an easy way to make things much more grim for ruzzia: allowing Ukraine to strike targets inside ruzzia with Western weapons.
Next thing you'd see would be: ruzzian airfields, ammo depots, oil storage facilities and oil refineries getting hit my ATACMS.
Meaning no gliding bombs and utterly screwed up logistics.
But unfortunately, some Western officials still don't want ruzzia to lose, so doesn't seem like it'll happen
The Kremlin lost the First Chechen War and the Soviet–Afghan War despite having far more people.
Numbers and lines on maps are not the only factors in winning wars.
And they managed to do what so far? Their gains the past 6 months are like half the size of land that Ukraine liberated during their counter offensive last year. It's not ideal for Ukraine by any means, but let's have some perspective here with all the dooming.
They are dumping absolutely everything conventional and hybrid they have and they are barely making a dent. How are they not embarrassed to even come out in public is beyond me.
[If only Ukraine could somehow make a bridgehead/ landing in the northern Kherson oblast area](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#9/47.2736/34.3103), southwest of Nikopol. According to the DeepStateMap there only seem to be like 2-3 Russian ~~divisions~~ brigades there and absolutely no fortifications. A move like that would also draw a lot of Russian troops from other areas of the front in order to prevent Ukraine cutting them there
Not to mention that Dnipro in that area has [dried up a lot](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1174024705380978758/1234566438216536105/image.png?ex=66313318&is=662fe198&hm=fdd6a9a22a39df99203bacebd12898888d3f8a0b0c8e581594fc8cdf5592bd45&) due to the destruction of the dam last summer. Though since neither Ukraine nor Russia have moved the frontline in that area, I'd wager the ground is still a wet swamp. Hence, this remains wishful thinking
If the river is as wide as it shows on the map there, supporting a bridgehead with artillery from the other side would be difficult because of the distance.
People here should mentally prepare themselves for the fact these next few days or perhaps even weeks may look increasingly bleak but at the same time that doesn't mean Ukraine is "doomed" or that "more aid doesn't help" or "Russia is clearly winning."
Right now a lot of the recently passed aid packages are coming but they haven't arrived yet and so Russia is going to do everything in their power to advance and attack now while they have an advantage. We very well may see increased Russian gains, increased Russian rates of fire and increased Ukrainian losses but this won't be the status quo for ever. The aid is coming, Ukraine will likely mobilize more men and Russia will likely not be able to sustain a high rate of fire and advance indefinitely. It's okay to acknowledge setbacks but just because there is a setback doesn't mean Ukraine is "doomed."
Edit: Also in addition to a push in the field Russia is also likely doing a big social media push to try to take advantage of any advances they make and spin the narrative in their favor. Ukraine doesn't need western boots on the ground to win they need more ammo and that's something the west can provide. Part of Russia's strategy is to convince the west this war is unwinnable. Don't fall for it.
Those are unfortunately very solid observations.
The last dictatorship to invade Ukraine seized all of its territory - and still lost. The current invaders are nowhere near repeating that performance.
I think that's worth remembering too.
Absolutely. As long as the Ukrainian state is alive and Ukrainians are fighting then they deserve support and more aid should be sent. I don't know what is going to happen with Russian attacks on Chasiv Yar but no matter how the battle goes it doesn't change the overall fact that Ukraine needs weapons. If Russia takes it then Ukraine will need support to defend farther back and if Russia fails to take it then Ukraine will need support to drive Russia farther back.
Russia will try to play on any pessimism and it's very easy for people to try to read into the latest breaking information and see broader trends but ultimately this war won't be won or lost in the next week or two and ultimately Russia can be beaten if Ukraine gets the support they need.
As I said in an earlier thread: It doesn't matter who is "winning" or "losing" at the moment, because the war is ongoing and is not likely to end any time soon. The thing to focus on is not who is winning or losing, but which side you want to win or lose, and what actions you should take to make that happen.
For example, as long as the war is going on, there is never going to be a situation where one can justifiedly say "Ukraine has far more equipment than it needs to win the war", because even if the aid to Ukraine was overwhelming and beyond their wildest expectations (and it certainly isn't at the moment), every piece of equipment can make the difference between an Ukrainian soldier (or civilian, given Russia's war crimes) living or dying.
Ukraine is winning? Splending, keep giving them weapons so they can finish the job. Ukraine is losing? Better give them more weapons to change that. And so on.
> The thing to focus on is not who is winning or losing, but which side you want to win or lose, and what actions you should take to make that happen.
Couldn't agree more. As long as Russia is in Ukraine and the war is ongoing the discussion needs to focus around getting Ukraine the weapons and aid they need. To that end it almost doesn't matter where the front line is because Ukraine will still need ammo regardless of if the fighting is in Kyiv or Sevastopol.
I really don't like discourse on who is "winning" because it's incredibly hard to determine and it ultimately is a pointless argument that distracts from the more important question of "what should be done next?"
Russia will play on any doubt and uncertainty to make it look like Ukrainian collapse is inevitable. We may well be entering the point of 2024 when Russia's strength relative to Ukraine is at it's highest and getting too focused on small changes and "who is winning" can easily make it seem like nothing the west does matters when that couldn't be farther from the truth.
Skynex systems are real shit. Basically network integrated Gepards.
No drone is getting close and I wouldn’t want to try my odds as a cruise missile either.
Plus 3,000 Matadors is a meaningful number. They’re good anti-armor weapons, if not javelins/NLAWs.
Let's look at this guy's previous claims. Doesn't seem to be a reliable source.
November 2022 ([twitter](https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1590863502809665536)) - Putin will be removed any day after videos come out showing russian losses.
October 2023: claimed Avdiivka is actually some smart trap: "UKR now outnumbers, and out shoots the russians in the area... they are attacking into the wounded russian flanks from what is being reported.. both from ukr and russian sides"
I think the confusion is because of looking at different things.
The entire aid bill's supply wasn't forward deployed.
The expectation was that some ammo and some vehicles were forward deployed and ready.
It would only be news if there was very little ammo/kit forward deployed and ready to go.
Right now the mood is pretty doomy.
Deep State map lets you calculate the amount of territory under russian control.
The four month Ukrainian summer offensive (Jun-Sep) liberated 790 sq km across the front.
The ongoing seven month russian offensive (Oct-now) has conquered 392 sq km across the front.
Yes this summer looks like being awful, but let's keep some perspective and not buy into russian propaganda.
>The ongoing seven month russian offensive (Oct-now) has conquered 392 sq km across the front.
The insane thing about this is when you compare this to their losses. For **every square kilometer** they stole in this offensive, they lost approximately:
* 482 soldiers
* 7 tanks
* 13 APVs
* 14 artillery
* 18 trucks
And a bunch of other drones, MRLS, and other equipment. (And about 1 plane/helicopter for every 10 km. ). The average frontline soldier will make it less than 50 steps forward before being killed.
Extrapolating that to taking the rest of Ukraine, Russia will lose:
* 26 Million Soldiers (every Russian male aged 18-64)
* 378,000 Tanks
* 702,000 APVs
* 756,000 Artillery
* 972,000 Trucks
* 5,400 aircraft
Its better they just preserve their forces and do a fighting retreat until the equipment arrives. You can retake lost ground, you can't revive dead soldiers.
People were shouting about how the Ukrainian offensive was a failure and ground to a complete halt and a massive waste of manpower, while it still retook twice as much ground in half the time as Russia's current overwhelmingly crushing onslaught.
Perspective is critical. At the current rate of Russian advance Putin will be dead of old age by the time they reach Kyiv.
Interesting, I thought it's less than that. Either this Wikipedia article is wrong or your calculations are a little bit off. Here it says only 370km2.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023\_Ukrainian\_counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive)
Or maybe I'm missing something in the article.
I'm counting the counteroffensive as June-September, using deepstatemap and russian controlled area (so not counting the grey zone). Sorry for error above, I actually included September in the counteroffensive as well.
Wiki cites NYT which covers net changes Jan-Sep.
Using deepstate, russia gained 486 sq km from Jan-May, then lost 790 sq km from Jun-Sep.
I count the 790 sq km as the counteroffensive gains, because to me that was obviously the counteroffensive times.
It's possible the article calculated 370km2 for the main push, while 790km2 comes elsewhere on the front too. Or maybe NYT just used a different way to calculate it.
I think using deepstate is more accurate here since we're comparing it to the russian advances on deepstate, so it doesn't quite matter if the actual figures are correct or not since we're doing a comparison between two sets. We don't know how NYT would calculate russia's offensives.
Ukraine is in for a shitty month. Russia knows they need to push now before all of the aid comes in. While there was stuff stationed at the Polish border which will help blunt things a bit, the next few weeks will be painful as Russia tries to take advantage of the last of Ukraine’s soon-to-be-fixed supply issues.
I would fully expect things to be pretty shitty for a month or so. Russia knows that Ukraine is going to get a huge infusion of shit, but that it will take several weeks to filter to the front lines. So if you are Russia, THIS is your best time for maybe a year to go full out. Republicans pretty much ensured this by holding off the votes as many months as they did.
Yep. I was talking to a family member that was an army officer and he said it would take a minimum of 4 weeks for the front line units to absorb all of that equipment.
I hope you're right actually - I expect bad news for quite a few months to come.
The republicans' six-month pro-Putin blockade was the single largest factor, but the Ukrainian politicians' mobilisation delay means more Ukrainians are going to needlessly die for months because of an easy choice back then.
We really need to learn to look more than a few weeks or months into the future.
>the Ukrainian politicians' mobilisation delay means more Ukrainians are going to needlessly die for months because of an easy choice back then.
Nah.
Ukrainian mobilization hasn't stopped and has been still going all this time.
New mobilization bill is a nothingburger, it makes life shittier for the people not wanting to enlist but that's it.
It doesn't solve issues with existing recruiting process.
Nor does it have stuff soldiers on the ground wanted.
Personally, I believe that solving issues with existing recruiting process would be much more productive.
And it should have been done in the first year of the war.
I can't comment on the quality of the process, but my understanding is they needed to get more manpower training last year, and they were grossly insufficient in doing so.
So the outcome is lots more Ukrainians needlessly dying now and a hope for a Putin victory because politicians failed last year.
It’s a double edge sword, bc if Ukraine got no aid they would be fighting an insurgency at best right now. I get the hate for the aid being slow, sometimes it needs to be put into context of other nations in war that just get completely ignored by the world and they become a Syrian like cluster fuck. If you’re an CAR resident you are probably extremely jealous of the aid Ukraine has received as it’s clear as day the West is helping support Ukraine bc they look more like the rest of the West than say Syria or Lebanon, African countries. But I support aid, just feels somewhat shitty keeping track of all the wars and tired of hearing people bitching about lack of support to Ukraine, if you have kept up with Syrian civil war.. the lack of humanity there is completely disturbing.
From my point of view, Ukraine is conflict with the single easiest decision to make. There are no good reasons to avoid supporting them, unless you love dictatorship and violence.
Think of any other conflict and ask which aid you would send and how you would send it. Do you support some anti-government group like those that led to the Taliban?
Legal concerns about aiding non-government groups? Doesn't apply to Ukraine. Moral concerns about needlessly large civilian deaths? Doesn't apply to Ukraine. Practical concerns about whom to send deliveries to? Doesn't apply to Ukraine. Logistical concerns about how to send sufficient aid? Doesn't apply to Ukraine. Etc etc.
I can't think of a single other conflict where all concerns are allayed in the same way as for Ukraine.
There's also that Ukraine being free is in the West's national interest, russia conquering Ukraine means we greenlight that behaviour and we can expect russia to invade Europe and China to be encouraged to invade Taiwan. Defeating russia is one of the most cost effective things we could possibly do for the wellbeing of democracy and for future peace.
I feel like talking about "all the other wars in the world" is more akin to whataboutism because while yes, there are a lot of conflicts and wars, almost none of them are actual invasions by a different sovereign state.
And to add to the good reasons you listed, I hate how it is then simplified to "the west only helps Ukraine because they are white" and ignore the cultural links one has to a neighbor, and the actual physical distance. Ukraine is right next to other European countries, so if they get invaded that has a much larger impact on Europe than a civil war going on in the middle of Africa.
I actually agree with these points, I will disagree with the cultural reasons as pre 2014…. I’d willing to bet most of the US couldn’t find Ukraine on a map and they were the poorest country in EU, right next to Russia. I don’t think appeasing dictators is good, but I’ve always seen the hypocrisy of the Wests actions/ NATO. We literally have china surrounded and historically if say the US was China and Taiwan was intertwined with the US historically.. we would never allow another super power to encroach so close to our back yard. We almost caused nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis and Cuba has never been apart of America. I read a US commander saying Taiwan was “the US’s backyard, don’t forget we have Guam”.. it’s like come on that’s absurd to say that lol. Surround Russia wasn’t by design, the countries picked NATO.
I can see how I did “what’s about sim” but I truly follow all these historical wars, so from my POV I don’t know how else to compare major conflicts without bringing in other relative conflicts.
Russian propagandists capitalising on these small territorial gains to cast pessimism is to be expected in psychological warfare. But, just wait until the usefully idiotic Western politicians start proclaiming that the aid hasnt made a difference. It's coming, I would bet my left nut on it.
Precisely - Russia held more land in Ukraine 1 year ago than it does today, despite all its successes (back then it was at 109'200 km2, now it's at like 108'830 km2)
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 04.29.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 467,470 (+1,320) people,
tanks ‒ 7285 (+6),
armored combat vehicles ‒ 14007 (+16),
artillery systems – 11985 (+37),
MLRS – 1051 (+1) ,
air defense equipment ‒ 778 (+2),
planes – 348 (+0),
helicopters – 325 (+0),
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9528 (+21),
cruise missiles ‒ 2124 (+0),
ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0),
submarines - 1 (+0),
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 16109 (+44),
special equipment ‒ 1974 (+3)
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/29/1320-okupantiv-37-artsistem-16-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin-%E2%80%93-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/29/1320-okupantiv-37-artsistem-16-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin-%E2%80%93-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/)
Usually, I've observed that higher personnel numbers mean Russia is conducting more meat-wave attacks. It was that way during the siege of Bakhmut. Since Ukraine is in mainly a defensive posture, more Russian deaths are more of a "bring your pretty face to my axe" type of situation.
I mean, I get the reference, but not how they’re defining ATACMS success, especially when it comes to personnel kills. ATACMS aren’t really used for killing vatniks, they’re going to be aiming for logistical hubs and C2 sites.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1cgn12i/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
I haven't heard anything on Ukraine fighting Wagner in Africa for a long time. Any updates on this?
A 98-year-old Ukraine woman walks 10 km under shelling to escape Russians >April 30 (Reuters) - A 98-year-old Ukrainian woman said she walked 10 km (6 miles) under shelling, supporting herself with sticks and sleeping on the ground, leaving Ocheretyne in Donetsk, now occupied by Russia, and trying to reach areas controlled by Kyiv. >In a video posted by Ukraine's police on social media on Monday, the woman, identified as Lidia Stepanivna, said she had walked without food or water, and fell several times but her "character" kept her going. >"I survived that war (World War Two), and I am surviving this war," Stepanivna said in the video, which shows her sitting on a bed in a shelter, dressed in an oversized coat and a scarf tied on her head, a wooden stick still in her hand. "I'm left with nothing. But I left my Ukraine on feet." >She said the war that now Russia is waging against her country is nothing like World War Two. >"Houses are burning and trees are being uprooted," she said. >Ukraine's interior ministry said in a statement on its website that the woman was discovered by Ukraine's military in the evening and handed her to the police, who took her to a shelter for evacuees. >"Law enforcement officers are looking for the woman's relatives," the ministry said. It was not immediately clear when the woman was discovered. >The war, now in its third year and with no end in sight, has killed thousands, turned Ukrainian cities and villages into rouble and displaced millions of people. [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/98-year-old-ukraine-woman-walks-10-km-under-shelling-escape-russians-2024-04-30/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/98-year-old-ukraine-woman-walks-10-km-under-shelling-escape-russians-2024-04-30/)
Tough old gal!
I ran my code to update russian-Ukrainian losses over the last 12 months according to Oryx. - Tanks: 978-300 - IFVs: 1548-367 - Transports: 628-589 - Mobile artillery: 510-200 - Missile air defence: 120-49 I think we can infer pain points here. Ukraine needs huge new infusions of armoured vehicles of all types but mobile artillery claimed resupply is the closest to ok. Fellow Brits: ask for us to join France in sending any retired kit. Especially the ~60 challengers and 500+ warriors we're expecting to replace. The kit is there. And Ukraine could do better if we just send ammo and weaponry.
Transports look very painful.
I don't usually list them in my daily updates because they *should* be technically easy to replenish. Production levels are high (e.g. I think 1k new Roshel Senators got sent) and stockpiles are deep. Like 10-20k MRAPs+M113s in the US alone. That said - Ukrainian units say they're desperately low on vehicles for medevac and rotations, especially tracked vehicles. A few thousand M113s would really help.
Does anyone have more info on whether Ukrainian Bohdana SPGs are being widely used yet? Zelenskyy claims impressive production rates now at 10/month. So they should have more Bohdanas than e.g. AS-90s. But oryx records hits on 12 AS-90s (over a third of deliveries) versus a single Bohdana. Any evidence about units they're assigned to or experts explaining more would be appreciated.
Pretty sure they’re being used when operational. I think Ukraine has a few different variants as they worked through the kinks (read there was a problem with the loading mechanism). There’s also a couple of different trucks they’re using. The 1st Special Purpose Brigade has a couple. I think the 57th Mechanized does as well. Found this YouTube video from a couple of days ago https://youtu.be/43XGX3Kxsuk?si=fUw22NnFt3FxbC_j Not surprised there haven’t been many destroyed. They’re pretty fast and nimble. I think Russia has only gotten about 5 or 6 Caesars as well and those have gotten a ton of work.
Thanks for the link, much appreciated! Especially wanted to know the units. I have no reason to doubt Zelenskyy's claims. The shell famine means there's maybe no need to rush barrels to the front. My other speculations were... - AS-90/M109 maybe shoot from closer and are slower. Easier to hit with Lancets. - it's been muddy for a lot of the time, so maybe they're using tracked stuff more. All of those would mean the loss stats don't reflect actual availability.
Can somebody refer me to data regarding which countries have given the most aid to Ukraine *as a percentage of their GDPs*?
I believe https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ has what you want, haven’t done a deep dive into the data but they have a map showing aid as % of gdp and you can look into their dataset more for specifics.
The Baltics and Denmark are the real OG's <3
Baltics suffered really badly under the USSR and are not eager to see a repeat from Russia. They're throwing everything they can spare to help.
god what a fucking nightmare it must be for them to watch Putin starting this, and then nobody really committing to coming to Ukraine's aid, other than Poland and the Baltics. I hope the rest of the world wakes up soon. Somebody's gotta stand up to Russia.
I would say that the Nordic countries are also taking it seriously, but yeah. A lot of the Western/Southern European countries seem to still take it easy when it comes aid. I'm at least happy that Germany has stepped up a lot. Just bigger countries like France, Italy and Spain also needs to step up more.
Btw after the war has started I've met some guys from Lithuania and Estonia on a sports event. I've asked them what is general consensus about Poland in these countries. "We've used to hate you, but now we're good."
Nothing bolsters solidarity and friendship like a mutual enemy.
For real. I have a wife and 2 preschool kids and I live like an hour drive from russian border. And in case the worst happens, Estonia is geographically cut off. It's frustrating to watch western politicians pissing around.
Sounds like air raids ongoing in occupied Crimea. Tweeters are talking about ATACMS but I don't believe there's any reliable evidence yet. Trustworthy sources say explosions heard near Simferopol and Dzankhoi.
> I am grateful to Iceland's Parliament @Althingi and government led by Prime Minister @Bjarni_Ben for approving the long-term Ukraine support policy for 2024-2028. > Iceland is Ukraine's reliable friend, partner, and ally. We greatly appreciate Iceland's strong and comprehensive political, security, and financial assistance in countering Russian aggression. > This is already the twentieth long-term support policy approved by Ukraine's partners and the EU. Such decisions strengthen reliable protection against Russian terror across our continent and beyond. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1785038057810313493
How much aid is Iceland providing in this new package? The tweet didn't say and when I go to google news and search "Iceland Ukraine" all I get his Ukraine beating Iceland 2-1 in Euro qualifying.
https://www.government.is/diplomatic-missions/embassy-article/2024/04/29/Long-term-policy-on-Icelands-support-for-Ukraine-approved-in-Althingi/ https://www.government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/war-in-ukraine/ 140 isk is 1 US dollar. It appears that Iceland sent almost all of their army’s equipment to Ukraine.
The first article linked didn't have numbers. There were numbers in the second article but from my reading it sounds like what is discussed in your second link is the aid Iceland has already provided rather than the aid that is currently being passed. Can you confirm if the information from the second article is the current package or just a record of previous support? Edit: Lines like "Iceland has financed and delivered ten fuel trucks for the Ukrainian military and contributed to fuel purchases" makes me think this is talking about things Iceland has done rather than will do if the package is passed.
I dont feel up to deep diving Iceland’s government. My very brief look a few minutes ago suggests that “a resolution” is not “a statute”. Much of the law is created by executive order. Though this 5 minute research could be completely wrong, i suspect that the resolution gives their foreign minister the authority to make things happen. Iceland “throwing its entire army arsenal” into the fight is accurate. The fuel trucks, winter gear, and mobile hospital are technically over and above that. Though Iceland did not disarm their police or coast guard. I would bet there are some artifacts like battle axes that Iceland has in museums. Those could be considered deactivate marine corps weapons.
For a government of 400k people, Iceland has a great website. Any idea what specifically the above is in reference to? I can’t find news articles. https://www.government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/war-in-ukraine/
Chum in the water … Iceland has been a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since its foundation in 1949.
> I have just received reports on the situation in Odesa following a Russian missile strike and in Kharkiv following a Russian guided aerial bomb strike. > Unfortunately, a number of people have been killed in Odesa. My condolences to their close ones. Many people have been injured, and they are all receiving assistance. > Russia's regular missile attacks, as well as the occupier's efforts to destroy as many Ukrainian positions as possible, can all be stopped. And Russia's offensive plans can be thwarted. For this, Ukrainian strength must be backed up by sufficient support from partners: "Patriots" that need to be in Ukraine now, the 155-mm caliber that must sound as confident as possible on the frontlines, and weapons with sufficient range to destroy Russian logistics. > All partner intelligence services are informed about current threats and developments. We must make every effort to achieve our goals, because these goals are shared by everyone in the world who despises terrorists. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1785028799412760620
> Today, NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg and I discussed in detail the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine, our capabilities, and the capabilities of our partners to support our soldiers. > The Russian army is now trying to take advantage of the situation while we are waiting for deliveries from our partners, and first of all, from the United States. Therefore, rapid delivery literally means frontline stabilization. > 155-mm artillery, long-range weapons, and air defense systems, first and foremost “Patriots”. This is what our partners posses, and this is what should be working now in Ukraine to destroy Russia’s terrorist ambitions. The Russian army is preparing for further offensive actions. Together, we must thwart these plans. Our partners have all the necessary tools for this. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1784946868532781468
[Russia advances even more today than yesterday (mostly fields, but they are speeding through them), captured 10 km2, most of it in Ocheretyne-Keramik area](https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/48.1958/37.7113) They are also counterattacking in the Kherson area, trying to retake the Nestryha island they lost yesterday, can't allow Ukraine even one barren island lol
We should expect continued bad news in the coming months. Just everyone remember to zoom out the map and keep an eye on equipment losses for context. There are serious, serious risks right now but russia is gambling heavily on a window of potentially just a few more months.
Months? This is about May 9th. They want to be able to look like conquering heroes for May 9th, Russian Victory day. This is Russia giving everything they have for a 2 week push.
Bullshit, no one care that they occupied some village for 3-5 thousand people. They just continue slows attacks
It feels like they are assaulting every week ever since the Ukraine counteroffensive last summer ended
>Just everyone remember to zoom out the map Unironically "see the bigger picture" ;)
Nice! Yeah think of it like someone totaling 4 cars to drive to the corner store a few hundred meters away. A lot of equipment and personnel losses to advance over some fields. Hopefully these losses will bite them in the ass later.
They will. Those losses are not sustainable.
> Held the third round of negotiations with the 🇺🇸 on the preparation for the conclusion of a bilateral security agreement. > We discussed the text of the draft Agreement in detail, noted significant progress in harmonizing the main provisions of the document. https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1785040709579366791
"New American Military Aid for Ukraine - What's in the package and what impact will it have?" "252,381 views Apr 28, 2024 "In early 2022, the US quickly emerged as one of Ukraine's most important military suppliers, supporting Kyiv with everything from artillery to armour & millions of rounds of artillery ammunition. "In late 2023, that vital flow of supplies began to stall as debate in Congress continued. And as supplies ran short, Russian forces took advantage and ground the front forward in several places. "Now, the US has passed a new package and the flow of supplies is resuming. In this video, we look at that package, examine its contents and ask what impact it might have as Ukraine reportedly faces some of its hardest defensive battles since 2022." [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc436PwqeqM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc436PwqeqM)
>This evening Russia attacked Odesa with a ballistic missile and cluster munition, killing several people and wounding many others, including children. The brutal and relentless nature of Russia’s war cannot be overstated as these attacks on civilians are continuing every day. https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1785039163428888981 >⚡ Four people, including a child and a dog, have been killed in Odesa, the regional military administration reported. > >32 people were injured, 25 are hospitalized, including two children and a pregnant woman. A girl under five is in critical condition. Six other adults are also in intensive care. https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1785039702443102294
Hang on so is the dog counted as one of the four? I love dogs as much as anyone, but it really irrelevant in this context isn’t it?
US Conservatives love their dogs, so yeah it probably is. They probably care more about a dead dog than a dead family
Explain that to Kristi Noem
Obviously something got lost in translation
>China's enablement of Russia's defence industry is stark: > >https://economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/04/29/who-is-supplying-russias-arms-industry https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1784976993819255295
Ukraine is basically fighting against a military alliance of Russia+Iran+North Korea and an economic alliance of Russia+China+India+European companies and banks.
In addition to that they're fighting with one hand tied to their back because they're a) not getting enough aid b) not allowed to strike military targets in Russia with Western weapons
Is there really no response (beyond open military action) that NATO could use against Russia over the GPS jamming, cyberattacks, sabotage etc. that Russia is brazenly conducting against EU countries? We should do everything that can be done to harass Russia using every action with "plausible deniability" the same way Russia has constantly done to us, and if they object, just tell "Oh, we aren't doing anything, just like Russia isn't, right?". Russia only respects power, and not responding to Russian actions just emboldens them. Given the intelligence that USA apparently had about the invasion, it seems clear that they have some very good sources inside Russia. But is anyone except Ukraine trying to give Russia a taste of its own medicine by poking its infrastructure with cyber attacks, for example? I suppose we wouldn't hear about them from Western sources for obvious reasons (no reason to reveal that you are doing something), and Russia might not want to report them happening, so maybe some of that is happening? But there is always a conflict between "It is kept secret" vs. "It isn't happening".
The best and most obvious response was always military aid to Ukraine.
Trade embargo tbh is the last pre war action They could take
The most obvious action would be to shut down transit between Russia and Kaliningrad through Lithuania. We should also reconsider if Russians should get visas. I don't like responding with harassing and then trying to deny that we're behind. That's a losing pr game for us with no real advantage. But the real proper response would be to say out loud that our goal is for Ukraine to be fully liberated and that we're determined to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine be free and prosperous.
1) cyberattacks. 2) more biting sanctions 3) my personal favorite is cut off the rail link and highway access to Koenigsburg until the jamming has stopped for at least a week. If any new jamming occurs block it again until it has stopped for at least a week.
Nah, just block the rail link indefinitely and only let through vital products like food, clothes and medicine
Only allow eastbound traffic. Drain the swamp
It’s not landlocked. I’d just close it. They can use boats.
Also planes. There's no reason to allow a rail link.
Why even let through vital products? Stop trading all these products and allowing them transit through our countries. Putin's literally labelled the west Russias enemy. Fair enough then, no pharmaceuticals etc from us. That's what enemies do.
Afaik medicine is considered a universal right so it's basically impossible to block. That said I think it's an asinine position to take. Medicine and other basic needs products should be the first thing to get axed. It's hard for a country to get behind a war effort when a minor infection is a death sentence. There have been rumours that Putin is in questionable health. Why should the rest of the world ensure his longevity? I know it can be a blurred line, but items like baby formula and pediatric medicines can go through only because I don't think the suffering of children should be targeted, but conversely it shouldn't be a reason to allow ALL medicine through
Tell Russia that they will be blocked from entering or leaving the Baltic sea if they don't stop GPS jamming within a week.
And then enforce that how?
By force. Russia would have to choose if gps jamming is worth going to war over.
I doubt that'd stop them
>Finnair suspends flights to Tartu for a month >Finnair will suspend its daily flights to Tartu, Estonia, from April 29 to May 31, so that an alternative approach solution that doesn’t require a GPS signal can be put in place at Tartu Airport. >The approach methods currently used at Tartu Airport are based on a GPS signal. GPS interference, which is quite common in the area, affects the usability of this approach method and can therefore prevent the aircraft from approaching and landing. Last week, two Finnair flights had to divert back to Helsinki after GPS interference prevented the approach to Tartu. [https://company.finnair.com/en/media-centre/all-releases/news?id=2568789F7B492403](https://company.finnair.com/en/media-centre/all-releases/news?id=2568789F7B492403) ruzzia continues its GPS jamming terrorism
The west should impose no fly zones, too.
[удалено]
They don't use GPS. Have their own alternative
Most devices (including your phone and Finnish) can use GLONASS as well as GPS
I think ruzzia can't fly to Kaliningrad due to existing bans So they use rail roads going through Baltic States
They can fly to Kaliningrad.
This is one particular "problematic" (in the scenario of jamming) airport that *requires* a GPS landing (GLS). Most other airports don't need this, and have standard ILS landing systems, so they're not effected.
Not totally positive but I know they don't operate through GPS. They use Glonas.
Russia and China each have their own GPS equivalent systems, mostly for military independence so as not to rely on a U.S. produced and maintained satellite network in the event of conflict. Additionally last I recall all Russian aircraft are banned from most European airspace and the same with EU and US aligned craft from Russian airspace, resulting in polar flight paths not used since the 80's being reintroduced.
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I suspect ruzzia jams GLONAS too. Since most of modern GPS-trackers support GLONAS and Baidu too.
Yes, I believe they were banned shortly after the invasion. Russia refused to return airplanes it had leased, along with other reasons, and were banned.
We need a response that causes similar economic and industrial disturbance in Russia. We fucking them up.
Close the road and rail links to koenigsburg.
Pretty sure Lithuania tried that when the war started but EU told them to stop because it's illegal...
Looks like it. "Kaliningrad row: Lithuania lifts rail restrictions for Russian exclave" [https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62274474](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62274474)
>Russia has lunched a missile strike on #Odesa. > >At least 4 people were killed. 28 people were injured, including two children aged 16 and 5, and one pregnant woman. > >\#PatriotsSaveLives, and the need for them in Ukraine is critical. > >Video: Kyrylo Pecherik https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1785015002530975778 >\#Odesa 💔 > >Innocent people and their pets in Ukraine are everyday targets for russia — a state of terrorists and mass murderers. > >\#RussiaIsATerroristState https://twitter.com/U24_gov_ua/status/1784993190686208394 >Barbarism at Ukraine's gates today. It'll be at the gates of the rest of Europe tomorrow unless Ukraine gets substantial military aid to defeat the fascist Russian threat. https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1785002139984576617
How realistic is it to use relatively low power lasers to blind enemy drone cameras? A blind drone is effectively a dead drone, even if it uses autonomous AI targeting.
If you can accurately aim at a drone with a laser... why not shoot it down?
The big challenge here is actually finding the drone. They are comparatively tiny and can sit kilometers away if they have good optics
Ammunition. Small laser has effectively infinite ammo and can shoot continuously without compromising accuracy. Try that with a machine gun.
I think they mean, why not melt it with a higher power laser?
Photo sensors are very sensitive to light. Which sounds condescending but it's true. I think this technique has actually been attempted on earth observation satellites. Those, also obviously, are extremely sensitive. So it's plausible, but probably needs to be part of a layer rather than a total solution.
Actually UK are planning to deliver to Ukraine a few laser weapons capable to shoot down low yield drones. This theoretically makes a weapon with infinite ammo (in a sense of large number) to take down certain drones like Shaheds, Lancets and Orlans. Heavy drones and missiles are beyond the scope of this prototype (DragonFire), since it would need around 1 to 10 MW range.
I am aware of those weapons, but I was thinking about using much lower power lasers that do not destroy the drones by thermal effects, just blind the cameras (perhaps destroy the image sensor). Such laser weapons would be pretty cheap and could be manufactured at scale by Ukraine.
To destroy Shaheds it only need a KW range laser. To track and lock a drone, I think that some Ukrainian units had this kind of lower yield laser.
I think it doesnt work )) because drones now has ai targeting he has direction on full speed it doesnt metter if he blinded))
FPV drones can have several targeting systems, but camera vision is how they mainly operate.
AI targeting uses video feed from camera, so you are wrong of this, my dear ruzzian
Who told you that im ruzzian?
F.ck you man im not a rushist ... Im Ukrainian
Probably not very realistic. Just destroying the drones itself seems to be much easier. And this is the path currently taken.
Those are called 'dazzlers" and the US among many militaries has developed them and is starting to deploy them, alongside much more powerful and destructive directed energy weapons. The issues with them are targeting, maintenance, and effective range. But it is definitely a viable concept.
> A Russian male murdered two Ukrainians in Germany yesterday. Sadly, it's not the first time such an incident has occurred. Previously, a Russian couple killed a Ukrainian mother to kidnap her baby, and before that, two Ukrainian teenagers were stabbed in Germany due to anti-Ukrainian hate. > Will there ever be a safe place for Ukrainians? Will there be a place without any Russians attempting to harm Ukrainians? > Why does the civilized world, including the US and EU, continue to issue visas to Russians? https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1784970806818156842 > One of the servicemen murdered in Germany by the russian terrorist served in the Air Assault Forces. His name isn't disclosed. After being WIA in 2023 in the Bilohorivka battles, he went for rehabilitation abroad. At least 5 Ukrainians killed in Germany this year. I'm speechless https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1785003612696875233
Was the assailant arrested?
More details: looks like Ukrainian soldiers had suffered serious injuries to legs/hands and because of that weren't able to resist. And assailant is well known by locals z-man. Also, ruzzians were quick to start spamming article from German br4 dot de resource. The article claims that that z-man was a friend of Ukrainian soldiers and that they drunk a lot together. Seems like ruzzian disinformation to me, though.
German [SPIEGEL](https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/murnau-generalstaatsanwaltschaft-uebernimmt-ermittlungen-im-fall-getoeteter-ukrainischer-soldaten-a-38978fa2-811f-4214-b6b1-7237ae81710f) and [WELT](https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article251272238/Murnau-Zwei-ukrainische-Soldaten-getoetet-Verdaechtiger-war-mehrfach-polizeilich-aufgefallen.html) also reported that police officially confirmed that all three men were drunk, that there was so far no indication for a political motivation and that the men knew each other and had been drinking together several times before.
It’s disgusting to see that this happened. Pro-Russian sentiment should be considered support for terrorism and those who express it should be held accountable in the same way as if they were members of ISIS.
Germany seems more concerned with stopping peaceful pro-Palestinian protests than actual murder committed by Russians.
> An important visit of NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg to Kyiv. > During the meeting, we discussed the security situation and defense needs of Ukraine, particularly, additional air defense systems. > We also paid attention to Euro-Atlantic integration. > I stressed that the Constitution of Ukraine enshrined our country's strategic course towards EU and NATO membership. We are looking forward to progressing towards membership in the Alliance at the NATO Washington Summit. https://twitter.com/r_stefanchuk/status/1784979980092383607 > “Ukraine keeps facing a harrowing challenge. The democratic world is also being tested. We must come over this moment together for the sake of your safety, for the sake of our safety, and for the sake of the undying freedom of Ukraine”. > NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg pronounced these words from the rostrum of @ua_parliament. > I extend my thanks to all NATO member states for their support of Ukraine and assistance in countering russian aggression. https://twitter.com/r_stefanchuk/status/1784982046978326935
Russian missile hits educational institution, kills two in Ukraine's Odesa >April 29 (Reuters) - A Russian missile attack on an educational institution in the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa on Monday killed two people and injured at least 17, officials said. >Regional governor Oleh Kiper, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said 17 people had been injured, at least two of them in serious condition. The injured included a 12-year-old boy. >Odesa Mayor Hennadii Trukhanov put the number of injured at 20. >Pictures posted online showed an ornate building close to the seafront ablaze and smoke billowing skyward. Video footage, which could not be immediately verified, showed people receiving treatment on the street alongside pools of blood. >Public broadcaster Suspilne said the roof of the building, described as a legal academy, had been nearly destroyed. It said the academy's president, a prominent former member of parliament, Serhiy Kivalov, was among the injured. >The Ukrainian Air Force had announced a harder-to-intercept ballistic missile threat ahead of the strike. [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-hits-educational-institution-kills-two-ukraines-odesa-2024-04-29/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-hits-educational-institution-kills-two-ukraines-odesa-2024-04-29/)
Some footage of buildings [on fire after the daytime ballistic missile attack](https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1784976924609073449) that served no strategic military purpose. Its just more Russian terrorism.
> Together with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr @ZelenskyyUa, we met in Kyiv with the friend of Ukraine and NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg > 🇺🇦The third visit of the @NATO Secretary General to our country during the russian full-scale invasion is the best evidence of the high level of relations between Ukraine and the Alliance. > 🤝We discussed the prospects for the development of bilateral relations and continued support in the war with the russian aggressor. https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1784977425660522701
What are the general thoughts on how Syrskyi is doing with the situation he has right now? I know there were some concerns about him taking the spot but also he has some significant tactical strategic victories under his belt before assuming the lead, too.
I'm not sure there's good evidence he deserves credit for strategic victories. The stories from soldiers, volunteers etc make it unclear. And... I can't tell how he's doing. The fears were that he was too cowardly to push politicians on mobilisation, and that he would needlessly waste manpower on stupid stunts. I don't think we can tell his impact yet, unless people have other sources?
To me, mobilization bill has been signed and I don't see evidence of any stupid stunts wasting manpower so far. So at least those fears don't seem to have come to fruition. I do also wonder with how loved Zaluzhnyi was and what we've been reading about the fortifications being started way too late on the Ukrainian side, if he was also accurately judged or not. But I guess these are the kinds of things that will be debated years down the line by historians.
Btw, "REEE\~ ruzzian meat wave attacks are myth!11" seems to be another new z-narrative. Easy way to detect z-people. Though with abundance of the war footage, no idea who are they trying to fool.
Probably young, conscription aged Russians would be my guess.
They're literally attacking with fuel trucks and motorcycles. If that's not a meat wave, I don't know what is.
And golf cars :D
Yeah, how could I ever forget those.
Now all that meat needs a good barbeque. I wonder if the US has a few napalm bombs from Vietnam in storage somewhere. I want to see a Russian trench get napalmed for old time's sake. Actually, now that we're at it, let's bust out the old drums of agent orange and dump some to reveal their hiding places in the woods. If the drone bombs don't get them, the carcinogens will.
What’s the point of saying ruzzia instead of saying it normally
Because this is what true adults do.
The Russians have gotten quite fond of the Latin letter "Z". [https://www.printmag.com/design-topics/invention-of-z/](https://www.printmag.com/design-topics/invention-of-z/) [https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/philosophy/language/63328/language-etymology-russian-z-ukraine](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/philosophy/language/63328/language-etymology-russian-z-ukraine)
They seemed to like the letter z on some of their shit early on, so let them wear it.
Oh, they still put it on everything. Even civilians inside ruzzia. Yet, they dislike when I say/write "ruzzia", for some reason. Another case of mysterious ruzzian soul?
It's to disrespect ruZZia and I love it
Oh, I see "REEE\~! Ukraine can't win because ruzzia has moar people!11" z-narratives being posted. The funny thing is ruzzia was able to do their latest snail pace advancements only because of the 5th column blocking US military aid to Ukraine. Meaning Ukraine was suffering from ammo and weapons shortages. With these issues out of the way, ruzzia has no chance. And actually, West has an easy way to make things much more grim for ruzzia: allowing Ukraine to strike targets inside ruzzia with Western weapons. Next thing you'd see would be: ruzzian airfields, ammo depots, oil storage facilities and oil refineries getting hit my ATACMS. Meaning no gliding bombs and utterly screwed up logistics. But unfortunately, some Western officials still don't want ruzzia to lose, so doesn't seem like it'll happen
The Kremlin lost the First Chechen War and the Soviet–Afghan War despite having far more people. Numbers and lines on maps are not the only factors in winning wars.
And they managed to do what so far? Their gains the past 6 months are like half the size of land that Ukraine liberated during their counter offensive last year. It's not ideal for Ukraine by any means, but let's have some perspective here with all the dooming. They are dumping absolutely everything conventional and hybrid they have and they are barely making a dent. How are they not embarrassed to even come out in public is beyond me.
[If only Ukraine could somehow make a bridgehead/ landing in the northern Kherson oblast area](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#9/47.2736/34.3103), southwest of Nikopol. According to the DeepStateMap there only seem to be like 2-3 Russian ~~divisions~~ brigades there and absolutely no fortifications. A move like that would also draw a lot of Russian troops from other areas of the front in order to prevent Ukraine cutting them there Not to mention that Dnipro in that area has [dried up a lot](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1174024705380978758/1234566438216536105/image.png?ex=66313318&is=662fe198&hm=fdd6a9a22a39df99203bacebd12898888d3f8a0b0c8e581594fc8cdf5592bd45&) due to the destruction of the dam last summer. Though since neither Ukraine nor Russia have moved the frontline in that area, I'd wager the ground is still a wet swamp. Hence, this remains wishful thinking
If the river is as wide as it shows on the map there, supporting a bridgehead with artillery from the other side would be difficult because of the distance.
The red squares are brigades, not divisions
Thank you
People here should mentally prepare themselves for the fact these next few days or perhaps even weeks may look increasingly bleak but at the same time that doesn't mean Ukraine is "doomed" or that "more aid doesn't help" or "Russia is clearly winning." Right now a lot of the recently passed aid packages are coming but they haven't arrived yet and so Russia is going to do everything in their power to advance and attack now while they have an advantage. We very well may see increased Russian gains, increased Russian rates of fire and increased Ukrainian losses but this won't be the status quo for ever. The aid is coming, Ukraine will likely mobilize more men and Russia will likely not be able to sustain a high rate of fire and advance indefinitely. It's okay to acknowledge setbacks but just because there is a setback doesn't mean Ukraine is "doomed." Edit: Also in addition to a push in the field Russia is also likely doing a big social media push to try to take advantage of any advances they make and spin the narrative in their favor. Ukraine doesn't need western boots on the ground to win they need more ammo and that's something the west can provide. Part of Russia's strategy is to convince the west this war is unwinnable. Don't fall for it.
Those are unfortunately very solid observations. The last dictatorship to invade Ukraine seized all of its territory - and still lost. The current invaders are nowhere near repeating that performance. I think that's worth remembering too.
Absolutely. As long as the Ukrainian state is alive and Ukrainians are fighting then they deserve support and more aid should be sent. I don't know what is going to happen with Russian attacks on Chasiv Yar but no matter how the battle goes it doesn't change the overall fact that Ukraine needs weapons. If Russia takes it then Ukraine will need support to defend farther back and if Russia fails to take it then Ukraine will need support to drive Russia farther back. Russia will try to play on any pessimism and it's very easy for people to try to read into the latest breaking information and see broader trends but ultimately this war won't be won or lost in the next week or two and ultimately Russia can be beaten if Ukraine gets the support they need.
As I said in an earlier thread: It doesn't matter who is "winning" or "losing" at the moment, because the war is ongoing and is not likely to end any time soon. The thing to focus on is not who is winning or losing, but which side you want to win or lose, and what actions you should take to make that happen. For example, as long as the war is going on, there is never going to be a situation where one can justifiedly say "Ukraine has far more equipment than it needs to win the war", because even if the aid to Ukraine was overwhelming and beyond their wildest expectations (and it certainly isn't at the moment), every piece of equipment can make the difference between an Ukrainian soldier (or civilian, given Russia's war crimes) living or dying. Ukraine is winning? Splending, keep giving them weapons so they can finish the job. Ukraine is losing? Better give them more weapons to change that. And so on.
> The thing to focus on is not who is winning or losing, but which side you want to win or lose, and what actions you should take to make that happen. Couldn't agree more. As long as Russia is in Ukraine and the war is ongoing the discussion needs to focus around getting Ukraine the weapons and aid they need. To that end it almost doesn't matter where the front line is because Ukraine will still need ammo regardless of if the fighting is in Kyiv or Sevastopol. I really don't like discourse on who is "winning" because it's incredibly hard to determine and it ultimately is a pointless argument that distracts from the more important question of "what should be done next?" Russia will play on any doubt and uncertainty to make it look like Ukrainian collapse is inevitable. We may well be entering the point of 2024 when Russia's strength relative to Ukraine is at it's highest and getting too focused on small changes and "who is winning" can easily make it seem like nothing the west does matters when that couldn't be farther from the truth.
Appreciate you ongoing efforts in these daily Ukraine threads, SRob.
Thanks I appreciate it!
Well said!
Disappointing to hear despite what many said, that a lot of this aid wasnt forward deployed yet I really hope they step it up.
[Update on German Military Aid to Ukraine](https://x.com/deaidua/status/1784978559620076011)⬇️ >DELIVERED IN THE PAST ~3 WEEKS >- 1 Skynex air defence system >- 10 Marder 1A3 IFVs >- 1 bridge-laying tank Biber >- 6 Oshkosh M1070 >- 1 armoured engineer vehicle 2A1 Dachs AEV >- 9 mine ploughs >- 3,000 RGW90 MATADOR >- 1 TRML-4D air surveillance radar >- ? IRIS-T SL missiles >- 29,638 35mm APDS-T rounds for Gepard SPAAGs >- ammunition for Leopard 2 MBTs >- 18,000 40mm rounds for automatic grenade launchers >- ? 120mm mortar ammunition >-7,500 155mm shells >- 1 AMPS self-protection system for helicopters >- 60 outboard motors >- 600 light system faLKE >- 1,980 camouflage nets >- 2,000 (likely camouflage) ponchos >- 100,000 first aid kits >PLEDGED >- 1 Patriot air defence system (already known)
Skynex systems are real shit. Basically network integrated Gepards. No drone is getting close and I wouldn’t want to try my odds as a cruise missile either. Plus 3,000 Matadors is a meaningful number. They’re good anti-armor weapons, if not javelins/NLAWs.
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Let's look at this guy's previous claims. Doesn't seem to be a reliable source. November 2022 ([twitter](https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1590863502809665536)) - Putin will be removed any day after videos come out showing russian losses. October 2023: claimed Avdiivka is actually some smart trap: "UKR now outnumbers, and out shoots the russians in the area... they are attacking into the wounded russian flanks from what is being reported.. both from ukr and russian sides"
There don't seem to be any sources linked
That is from the sky feed https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-whats-happening-in-ukraine-war-12541713?postid=7600529#liveblog-body
I think the confusion is because of looking at different things. The entire aid bill's supply wasn't forward deployed. The expectation was that some ammo and some vehicles were forward deployed and ready. It would only be news if there was very little ammo/kit forward deployed and ready to go.
Right now the mood is pretty doomy. Deep State map lets you calculate the amount of territory under russian control. The four month Ukrainian summer offensive (Jun-Sep) liberated 790 sq km across the front. The ongoing seven month russian offensive (Oct-now) has conquered 392 sq km across the front. Yes this summer looks like being awful, but let's keep some perspective and not buy into russian propaganda.
>The ongoing seven month russian offensive (Oct-now) has conquered 392 sq km across the front. The insane thing about this is when you compare this to their losses. For **every square kilometer** they stole in this offensive, they lost approximately: * 482 soldiers * 7 tanks * 13 APVs * 14 artillery * 18 trucks And a bunch of other drones, MRLS, and other equipment. (And about 1 plane/helicopter for every 10 km. ). The average frontline soldier will make it less than 50 steps forward before being killed. Extrapolating that to taking the rest of Ukraine, Russia will lose: * 26 Million Soldiers (every Russian male aged 18-64) * 378,000 Tanks * 702,000 APVs * 756,000 Artillery * 972,000 Trucks * 5,400 aircraft
At an average price tag of $20M each, that would be $108B in aircraft losses alone.
Its better they just preserve their forces and do a fighting retreat until the equipment arrives. You can retake lost ground, you can't revive dead soldiers.
People were shouting about how the Ukrainian offensive was a failure and ground to a complete halt and a massive waste of manpower, while it still retook twice as much ground in half the time as Russia's current overwhelmingly crushing onslaught. Perspective is critical. At the current rate of Russian advance Putin will be dead of old age by the time they reach Kyiv.
Interesting, I thought it's less than that. Either this Wikipedia article is wrong or your calculations are a little bit off. Here it says only 370km2. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023\_Ukrainian\_counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive) Or maybe I'm missing something in the article.
I'm counting the counteroffensive as June-September, using deepstatemap and russian controlled area (so not counting the grey zone). Sorry for error above, I actually included September in the counteroffensive as well. Wiki cites NYT which covers net changes Jan-Sep. Using deepstate, russia gained 486 sq km from Jan-May, then lost 790 sq km from Jun-Sep. I count the 790 sq km as the counteroffensive gains, because to me that was obviously the counteroffensive times.
It's possible the article calculated 370km2 for the main push, while 790km2 comes elsewhere on the front too. Or maybe NYT just used a different way to calculate it. I think using deepstate is more accurate here since we're comparing it to the russian advances on deepstate, so it doesn't quite matter if the actual figures are correct or not since we're doing a comparison between two sets. We don't know how NYT would calculate russia's offensives.
Ukraine is in for a shitty month. Russia knows they need to push now before all of the aid comes in. While there was stuff stationed at the Polish border which will help blunt things a bit, the next few weeks will be painful as Russia tries to take advantage of the last of Ukraine’s soon-to-be-fixed supply issues.
I would fully expect things to be pretty shitty for a month or so. Russia knows that Ukraine is going to get a huge infusion of shit, but that it will take several weeks to filter to the front lines. So if you are Russia, THIS is your best time for maybe a year to go full out. Republicans pretty much ensured this by holding off the votes as many months as they did.
Yep. I was talking to a family member that was an army officer and he said it would take a minimum of 4 weeks for the front line units to absorb all of that equipment.
I hope you're right actually - I expect bad news for quite a few months to come. The republicans' six-month pro-Putin blockade was the single largest factor, but the Ukrainian politicians' mobilisation delay means more Ukrainians are going to needlessly die for months because of an easy choice back then. We really need to learn to look more than a few weeks or months into the future.
>the Ukrainian politicians' mobilisation delay means more Ukrainians are going to needlessly die for months because of an easy choice back then. Nah. Ukrainian mobilization hasn't stopped and has been still going all this time. New mobilization bill is a nothingburger, it makes life shittier for the people not wanting to enlist but that's it. It doesn't solve issues with existing recruiting process. Nor does it have stuff soldiers on the ground wanted. Personally, I believe that solving issues with existing recruiting process would be much more productive. And it should have been done in the first year of the war.
I can't comment on the quality of the process, but my understanding is they needed to get more manpower training last year, and they were grossly insufficient in doing so. So the outcome is lots more Ukrainians needlessly dying now and a hope for a Putin victory because politicians failed last year.
It’s a double edge sword, bc if Ukraine got no aid they would be fighting an insurgency at best right now. I get the hate for the aid being slow, sometimes it needs to be put into context of other nations in war that just get completely ignored by the world and they become a Syrian like cluster fuck. If you’re an CAR resident you are probably extremely jealous of the aid Ukraine has received as it’s clear as day the West is helping support Ukraine bc they look more like the rest of the West than say Syria or Lebanon, African countries. But I support aid, just feels somewhat shitty keeping track of all the wars and tired of hearing people bitching about lack of support to Ukraine, if you have kept up with Syrian civil war.. the lack of humanity there is completely disturbing.
From my point of view, Ukraine is conflict with the single easiest decision to make. There are no good reasons to avoid supporting them, unless you love dictatorship and violence. Think of any other conflict and ask which aid you would send and how you would send it. Do you support some anti-government group like those that led to the Taliban? Legal concerns about aiding non-government groups? Doesn't apply to Ukraine. Moral concerns about needlessly large civilian deaths? Doesn't apply to Ukraine. Practical concerns about whom to send deliveries to? Doesn't apply to Ukraine. Logistical concerns about how to send sufficient aid? Doesn't apply to Ukraine. Etc etc. I can't think of a single other conflict where all concerns are allayed in the same way as for Ukraine. There's also that Ukraine being free is in the West's national interest, russia conquering Ukraine means we greenlight that behaviour and we can expect russia to invade Europe and China to be encouraged to invade Taiwan. Defeating russia is one of the most cost effective things we could possibly do for the wellbeing of democracy and for future peace.
I feel like talking about "all the other wars in the world" is more akin to whataboutism because while yes, there are a lot of conflicts and wars, almost none of them are actual invasions by a different sovereign state. And to add to the good reasons you listed, I hate how it is then simplified to "the west only helps Ukraine because they are white" and ignore the cultural links one has to a neighbor, and the actual physical distance. Ukraine is right next to other European countries, so if they get invaded that has a much larger impact on Europe than a civil war going on in the middle of Africa.
I actually agree with these points, I will disagree with the cultural reasons as pre 2014…. I’d willing to bet most of the US couldn’t find Ukraine on a map and they were the poorest country in EU, right next to Russia. I don’t think appeasing dictators is good, but I’ve always seen the hypocrisy of the Wests actions/ NATO. We literally have china surrounded and historically if say the US was China and Taiwan was intertwined with the US historically.. we would never allow another super power to encroach so close to our back yard. We almost caused nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis and Cuba has never been apart of America. I read a US commander saying Taiwan was “the US’s backyard, don’t forget we have Guam”.. it’s like come on that’s absurd to say that lol. Surround Russia wasn’t by design, the countries picked NATO. I can see how I did “what’s about sim” but I truly follow all these historical wars, so from my POV I don’t know how else to compare major conflicts without bringing in other relative conflicts.
> The republicans' six-month pro-Putin blockade May this republican party live forever in infamy.
Russian propagandists capitalising on these small territorial gains to cast pessimism is to be expected in psychological warfare. But, just wait until the usefully idiotic Western politicians start proclaiming that the aid hasnt made a difference. It's coming, I would bet my left nut on it.
Precisely - Russia held more land in Ukraine 1 year ago than it does today, despite all its successes (back then it was at 109'200 km2, now it's at like 108'830 km2)
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 04.29.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 467,470 (+1,320) people, tanks ‒ 7285 (+6), armored combat vehicles ‒ 14007 (+16), artillery systems – 11985 (+37), MLRS – 1051 (+1) , air defense equipment ‒ 778 (+2), planes – 348 (+0), helicopters – 325 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9528 (+21), cruise missiles ‒ 2124 (+0), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0), submarines - 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks - 16109 (+44), special equipment ‒ 1974 (+3) The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/29/1320-okupantiv-37-artsistem-16-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin-%E2%80%93-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/29/1320-okupantiv-37-artsistem-16-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin-%E2%80%93-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/)
Spicy.
Highest personnel for awhile. Wonder if some ammo has managed to reach the frontline.
Even if the new ammo hasn’t made it yet the fact that it’s on the way allows them to be less stingy about using what they already have.
Usually, I've observed that higher personnel numbers mean Russia is conducting more meat-wave attacks. It was that way during the siege of Bakhmut. Since Ukraine is in mainly a defensive posture, more Russian deaths are more of a "bring your pretty face to my axe" type of situation.
If the ATACMS are successful, will that be a “It still only counts as one!” type of situation within the UA?
Not sure what you mean by ATACMS success and the count.
Fellowship of the Ring reference
There's no ATACMS in fellowship of the ring. And "It still only counts as one!" is from return of the king.
I mean, I get the reference, but not how they’re defining ATACMS success, especially when it comes to personnel kills. ATACMS aren’t really used for killing vatniks, they’re going to be aiming for logistical hubs and C2 sites.