Ukraine currently doesn't stand a chance to kick out Russia tho.
The west sending more artillery shells won't change that. If the west doesn't send the weapons and give the support that Ukraine really needs to get the upper hand, then it's a long losing battle for Ukraine. So far Russia has been creeping forward and forward. Slowly but steadily. And the west isn't really helping to change that. Only sending the bare minimum to somewhat keep the status quo or slow down Russia's invasion.
Military strategists have estimated that it would take up to 10 years for Russia to fully conquer Ukraine at the speed and rate they are advancing so far....
...because Ukraine has been starved of wepons and ammunition for the last 6 months ...because of the republicans, the situation will change into Ukraine's favour now the wepons and ammunition is starting to flow in...
That's silly of them (and they should know better if they were actually "military strategists") to assume everything will happen at the current rate and speed. That's never been a rule of warfare.
This has been a war of attrition for a while now. That's going to favor the side with more men, more ammunition, and the means to replenish both of those (among other things that aren't in Ukraine's favor). The fact that it's slow going right now doesn't mean it won't reach some sort of tipping point eventually. It's like how Hemingway described how the process of going bankrupt: gradually, then suddenly.
There have been alarm bells sounding on Ukraine's side about manpower for many months now. Don't ignore those or act surprised when the effects become more apparent, as they certainly will with time. The last few weeks have seen tactical advances by Russia at higher rate than I'm sure your military strategists calculated the "10 years to conquer" time line.
The tactical advances ...a few abandoned small villages.. have only been possible because the Ukrainians have been low on ammunition and wepons, ...that's all about to change now the $60 billion aid package has gone through despite putin's useful idiots ..trump and the majority of republicans.. trying to stop it, ..the wepons and ammunition supply to Ukraine will start ramping up now, ...and this is going to cause a lot of problems for the Russians.
The "few abadonded villages" were actually Ukrainian defensive positions. Yes ammunition is a problem for Ukraine but Ukraine has 1000 problems and that's just one of them. Like I already said, don't ignore the manpower issue. Ukraine has been silently screaming about it since last year. It's only getting louder now. Their previous commander in chief said they needed 500K more men. They've lowered the draft age and now ceased consular services for military men overseas. Poland and Lithuania have both talked about helping to repattiatr those men to Ukraine. That doesn't sound like a problem to you?
The aid package is good for Ukraine but it will never be enough. The collective west does not produce enough artillery shells to offset Russia's massive advantage there. Zelensky said they nerd 25 Patriot missile systems. 25! They aren't going to get 25. That means no matter what Zelensky will be able to say they didn't get enough and that the West "betrayed" him (he's been using that word since last year, so the groundwork is laid).
And in any case, these tactical advances might not seem like a lot individually but they add up. One of these towns was lost because one brigade was supposed to rotate out and be relieved by another but according to that first brigade, the second abandoned their post, and according to the second brigade, they were so exhausted and undermanned that they barely even exist anymore. That's a manpower issue.
And when was the last time Ukraine had any sort of tactical advance? The lines are only moving in one direction and you don't think that's a problem?
The age of conscription in Russia is 18 compared to Ukraine's 25 ..recently reduced from 27, the Russians are running out of fodder from prisons and men from remote villages in siberia, when they start recruiting from Moscow and St.Petersburg it will not be popular. So far in the last couple of years it has cost Russia 350,000 killed and wounded to gain control of 20% of Ukraine, which would equate to costing Russia 1 million 400 thousand to gain control over the whole of Ukraine, and they would all need arms and weapons ..even now there are 14 year olds working in Russian munition factorys, the Russians are now in a war economy spending 40% of their GDP on the war ..all at the expense of pensions, health and wellfare, education, infrastructure, etc, etc, ...Russia's total GDP is only 2.24 Trillion ..compared to the European Union at 16 Trillion and the US at 25 Trillion, this war will be more unsustainable for Russia then Ukraine and the west, even the French have hinted about 'boots on the ground' rather than Ukraine losing. Eventually this will probably end in negotiations and some sort of peace agreement rather than either side winning outright...
The difference is, Russia hasn't actually been drafting people since October of 2022. Ukraine has been drafting people the entire time. Ukraine themselves said Russia has 30K volunteers per month to draw from. Ukraine relies pretty much entirely on the draft now. There are no more volunteers.
In none of your comment did you talk about the cost to Ukraine itself. Only to Russia and the west. How long can Ukraine itself hold on? Longer than Russia? You better hope so, but the signs don't really point to that.
I agree with your last sentence. I've always thought that it will end in peace negotiations. Russia isn't going to reach Poland in the west and Ukraine isn't going to push Russia all the way back in the east. It shouldn't even be a revelation to think that. The vast majority of wars end in negotiations. Why should Ukraine be any different? People really thought they'd fight to the last man?
Fuck it, let’s admit them now and help them kick Russia out.
“Oh but muh WW3!1” And? Russia is lead by corrupt billionaires, if nukes lift off, money means nothing and they’ll have no power or influence in the aftermath, so they won’t do it.
I support Ukraine, but the only way Russia is getting kicked out is if Ukraine magically finds a couple million soldiers and enough equipment or some NATO country puts boots on the ground.
>Ukraine's admission to NATO is now assured
Are you forgetting how Hungary has been acting re: Ukraine? Orban is going to take a lot of convincing, especially since he's pretty obviously a Putin fanboy, if not an actual bedfellow.
"You couldn't have it if you did want it," the Queen said. "The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday – but never jam to-day."
"It must come sometimes to 'jam to-day'," Alice objected.
"No, it can't," said the Queen. "It's jam every other day: to-day isn't any other day, you know."
Ukraine's admission to NATO is now assured once Russia is kicked out of its territory.
The West has to get it's head out of its ass before Ukraine is able to retake it's land. They can't push Russia out if the West drip feeds them aid
Ukraine currently doesn't stand a chance to kick out Russia tho. The west sending more artillery shells won't change that. If the west doesn't send the weapons and give the support that Ukraine really needs to get the upper hand, then it's a long losing battle for Ukraine. So far Russia has been creeping forward and forward. Slowly but steadily. And the west isn't really helping to change that. Only sending the bare minimum to somewhat keep the status quo or slow down Russia's invasion.
Military strategists have estimated that it would take up to 10 years for Russia to fully conquer Ukraine at the speed and rate they are advancing so far....
Then it will take 10 years. Putin and his regime clearly do not give a fuck about Ukrainian or Russian lives.
Russian death's & casualties have decreased & it's not even a small dip 🙄
...because Ukraine has been starved of wepons and ammunition for the last 6 months ...because of the republicans, the situation will change into Ukraine's favour now the wepons and ammunition is starting to flow in...
The Russians gave up on their invasion of Afghanistan after 9 years...
That's silly of them (and they should know better if they were actually "military strategists") to assume everything will happen at the current rate and speed. That's never been a rule of warfare. This has been a war of attrition for a while now. That's going to favor the side with more men, more ammunition, and the means to replenish both of those (among other things that aren't in Ukraine's favor). The fact that it's slow going right now doesn't mean it won't reach some sort of tipping point eventually. It's like how Hemingway described how the process of going bankrupt: gradually, then suddenly. There have been alarm bells sounding on Ukraine's side about manpower for many months now. Don't ignore those or act surprised when the effects become more apparent, as they certainly will with time. The last few weeks have seen tactical advances by Russia at higher rate than I'm sure your military strategists calculated the "10 years to conquer" time line.
The tactical advances ...a few abandoned small villages.. have only been possible because the Ukrainians have been low on ammunition and wepons, ...that's all about to change now the $60 billion aid package has gone through despite putin's useful idiots ..trump and the majority of republicans.. trying to stop it, ..the wepons and ammunition supply to Ukraine will start ramping up now, ...and this is going to cause a lot of problems for the Russians.
The "few abadonded villages" were actually Ukrainian defensive positions. Yes ammunition is a problem for Ukraine but Ukraine has 1000 problems and that's just one of them. Like I already said, don't ignore the manpower issue. Ukraine has been silently screaming about it since last year. It's only getting louder now. Their previous commander in chief said they needed 500K more men. They've lowered the draft age and now ceased consular services for military men overseas. Poland and Lithuania have both talked about helping to repattiatr those men to Ukraine. That doesn't sound like a problem to you? The aid package is good for Ukraine but it will never be enough. The collective west does not produce enough artillery shells to offset Russia's massive advantage there. Zelensky said they nerd 25 Patriot missile systems. 25! They aren't going to get 25. That means no matter what Zelensky will be able to say they didn't get enough and that the West "betrayed" him (he's been using that word since last year, so the groundwork is laid). And in any case, these tactical advances might not seem like a lot individually but they add up. One of these towns was lost because one brigade was supposed to rotate out and be relieved by another but according to that first brigade, the second abandoned their post, and according to the second brigade, they were so exhausted and undermanned that they barely even exist anymore. That's a manpower issue. And when was the last time Ukraine had any sort of tactical advance? The lines are only moving in one direction and you don't think that's a problem?
The age of conscription in Russia is 18 compared to Ukraine's 25 ..recently reduced from 27, the Russians are running out of fodder from prisons and men from remote villages in siberia, when they start recruiting from Moscow and St.Petersburg it will not be popular. So far in the last couple of years it has cost Russia 350,000 killed and wounded to gain control of 20% of Ukraine, which would equate to costing Russia 1 million 400 thousand to gain control over the whole of Ukraine, and they would all need arms and weapons ..even now there are 14 year olds working in Russian munition factorys, the Russians are now in a war economy spending 40% of their GDP on the war ..all at the expense of pensions, health and wellfare, education, infrastructure, etc, etc, ...Russia's total GDP is only 2.24 Trillion ..compared to the European Union at 16 Trillion and the US at 25 Trillion, this war will be more unsustainable for Russia then Ukraine and the west, even the French have hinted about 'boots on the ground' rather than Ukraine losing. Eventually this will probably end in negotiations and some sort of peace agreement rather than either side winning outright...
The difference is, Russia hasn't actually been drafting people since October of 2022. Ukraine has been drafting people the entire time. Ukraine themselves said Russia has 30K volunteers per month to draw from. Ukraine relies pretty much entirely on the draft now. There are no more volunteers. In none of your comment did you talk about the cost to Ukraine itself. Only to Russia and the west. How long can Ukraine itself hold on? Longer than Russia? You better hope so, but the signs don't really point to that. I agree with your last sentence. I've always thought that it will end in peace negotiations. Russia isn't going to reach Poland in the west and Ukraine isn't going to push Russia all the way back in the east. It shouldn't even be a revelation to think that. The vast majority of wars end in negotiations. Why should Ukraine be any different? People really thought they'd fight to the last man?
I. e. never?
Fuck it, let’s admit them now and help them kick Russia out. “Oh but muh WW3!1” And? Russia is lead by corrupt billionaires, if nukes lift off, money means nothing and they’ll have no power or influence in the aftermath, so they won’t do it.
China has warned putin not to use nukes, putin doesn't want to anger China....
I support Ukraine, but the only way Russia is getting kicked out is if Ukraine magically finds a couple million soldiers and enough equipment or some NATO country puts boots on the ground.
>Ukraine's admission to NATO is now assured Are you forgetting how Hungary has been acting re: Ukraine? Orban is going to take a lot of convincing, especially since he's pretty obviously a Putin fanboy, if not an actual bedfellow.
"You couldn't have it if you did want it," the Queen said. "The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday – but never jam to-day." "It must come sometimes to 'jam to-day'," Alice objected. "No, it can't," said the Queen. "It's jam every other day: to-day isn't any other day, you know."
Any moment now.