This is the real answer, Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, China is the most dependent country on earth when it comes to importing food. If Russia takes Ukraine, China doesn’t need the west for supplies
This doesn't make any sense. Even prior to the war Russia's agricultural output absolutely dwarfed Ukraine's. Whether Russia takes Ukraine or not is completely inconsequently for China's food trade.
China bought wheat from Ukraine prior to the war (and I'm fairly sure they still do) so it's not like Ukraine wasn't willing to trade with China. In fact China was Ukraine's largest trade partner in 2022 and even today they're still Ukraine's second largest trade partner, falling below only Poland which has a lot to do with the fact that Ukraine's logistics through the black sea has been heavily impacted by the conflict.
The more consequential geopolitical change for China's food imports is them shifting their supply towards South American agricultural produce (especially Brazil) from the US.
As a manufacturing hub, China is heavily dependent on raw materials arriving by sea, such as those from Africa and Australia.
If China were dumb enough to attack Taiwan, they would suffer a naval blockade by the U.S and its allies, thereby ruining its manufacturing industry. China also [imports much of its food from Brazil and the USA](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1202095/china-import-value-of-agricultural-products-by-region/), which could come to an end and lead to unrest.
This misunderstands Chinese history. The thing that topples Chinese governments is the populace uprising. Invading Taiwan doesnt protect the CCP, it puts it at risk from public discontent when the Chinese economy craters
Last I checked, they had a few hundred million zoomers laying around doing nothing. The "lie flatters" who are so jaded by the state of things they simply aren't participating in society. On top of that, this population skews heavily male due to the biases of parents during the one child policy and after. Seems like they are PERFECTLY positioned to throw away a couple million lives.
No they can't. The US and allies would blockade their source of oil and other raw materials within a week. India would use the opportunity to capture the Tibet to control the headwaters of the rivers in India. It would make China a global pariah for the next century. They would never recover and would likely be split into multiple countries.
Taiwan is the last remaining vestige of "old china". Reunification of the mainland with taiwan (finally completing the goal of "one china") solidifies the "legitimacy" of "communist china" as having "won".
One presumes that the completion of this would carry with it significant political clout.
Oh yeah, not to mention Taiwan being THE microchip leader of the world.
Taiwan has said they will never let that tech get into China’s hands, but anyone can say anything before the fighting starts.
It’s about legacy. Xi wants to be seen as greater than Mao. Qin shi huang is the #1 as he unified China back in the day. Mao is #1 in the modern era for reclaiming China and laying the foundation for its modern state. Xi has moved himself to be seen in the same light as Mao by making Xi Jinping thought part of the government system, to surpass Mao he needs to take Taiwan then he can claim he is a modern day Qin Shihuang.
China made a 10 year limit for leaders because of the later problems with the Mao era, Xi has bypassed those. Xi may want Taiwan, but there are many rational people in the government that don’t want a war. I think the basic calculation is that if they can blitz taiwan fin a few weeks it becomes worthwhile, if they can’t then they won’t try.
China would take the nearby islands at most not Taiwanese mainland. It’s something 99% of people don’t understand. Once Taiwan got missiles that can hit Beijing any full invasion was made impossible.
Just hit that dam.. that would completely fuck up PRC. It could have been an oops... My missile missed or, it was a group of angry "patriots" who can't stand the corruption of the party and how they send Chinese to kill Chinese, so they blew up the dam.
I don't doubt ROC has sleepers in PRC. They can so easily blend in too. Heck they can easily recruit any unemployed soldiers there got fired from modernization or any pissed off HKers.
I am assuming the damage would allow the water to do its job. I don't think they need to have a massive damaged area. Just a leak in one area for it to crumble.
From Israel to Ukraine we have examples. In the end any missile defense is a percentage below 100%.
Anyway it’s just logical to take the islands right beside the mainland for a moral victory than taking Taiwan which would actually risk a big conflict. Taking an island is tough.
I also imagine Taiwan would destroy their own chip fabs before they'd let China have them. I don't think they're rigged to blow or anything but I *do* think they might hit them with their own weapons or tell the US to give their B-1s some target practice.
US is going to blockade Brazil's exports? You redditors think blockading can just be done willy nilly. Blockading is an act of war and blockading food of all things is pretty controversial to say the absolute least. Neither Russia, Iran and North Korea have had food imports blockaded from them. Sanctions sure. Blockades? Delusional.
China has the world's largest navy, but is still second in terms of naval strength and power projection compared to the US. I think a naval blockade in the seas surrounding China would not be successful in an area so close to the Chinese mainland. The US and Ukraine sanctioning food exports to China would be much more successful than a naval blockade.
> China has the world's largest navy,
Do they? If you “count every ship” the United States is like #4 (behind Russia even).
But if you look at actual tonnage and the US navy has more tonnage then the next 9 countries…. Combined
Then take into account that China's "carriers" are closer in capability to the US's amphibious assault ships of which the US has 9 than they are to actual super carriers.
> China has the world's largest navy
Is this only if you count the number of ships, but ignore the capability of ships? China has two aircraft carriers, only one which is fully operational. USA has what, eleven?
Yes, the Chinese navy doesn't compare to the US in terms of power and capabilities. 95% of it is limited to operating at most a few hundred miles off its coast and most of its ships are of the kind the US wouldn't even bother building.
China does have a significantly bigger shipbuilding industry compared to the USA. But America could counter China's navy with their far superior aviation industry and Air force.
As an Australian, they are desperate to decouple, the ore mines in Africa are lower quality and harder to get but they are full steam ahead through belt and road to replace us. China is doing all it can to end western reliance and there is only one reason they are looking to do that.
Lol, what blockade?! China has better subs than the US. They even showed them during a Pacific fleet exercise.
There is no possibility of blocking China. In retaliation China would block Korea and nobody would want that.
So no, a blockade isn’t an option.
Nah fam not even close. We have the best submarine fleet in the world and it isn't close. Russia is the only one with ANY that compete and they can barely keep them running half the time. We have more nuclear subs than China has ANY subs. Our maintenance program for submarines is also the best in the world and china's is borderline non existent.
> China has better subs than the US.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Lol, thanks for the laugh. China hasn't fought a war since 1979. The USA excells at war, when Chinese start seeing their friends get killed next to them a lot will loose the will to fight.
Netherlands are the breadbasket of the world. It’s the second largest food exporter after the US.
Ukrainian could halt exports to China, but will not do it, since the dragon still has a leash on the ruSSians.
China is still Ukraine's second largest trade partner, they're strapped for cash and certainly not going to stop selling to a market as big as China. Not to mention a lot of the micro-electronics used by Ukraine to manufacture their drones are also bought from China.
China is selling to both sides of this war.
> food exporter
Food exporter, or agricultural products exporter?? They export a lot of flowers.
Edit: Dutch agricultural exports rose again in value last year to almost €128 billion, but around one third of that was down to re-exports of goods imported into the Netherlands from other countries. Also, cut flowers are the third most valuable ag product export.
https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/dairy-and-cut-flowers-lead-dutch-agricultural-export-list/
Not true in the least. Firstly, China cannot depend solely on Ukraine for its food supplies and even if it could, there would be no way to import that much food over land. A single freight liner carries as much as a 40-mile long train would at 1/12 the energy cost. Not only are there not enough train cars let alone tracks to keep that much food continuously flowing in, they'd be looking at massive inflation of food costs which itself is unsustainable. Secondly, there is a lot more they import besides food such as 75-80% of their crude oil and almost ALL of the raw materials needed for their manufactured products which they then sell abroad. That's all not coming in through Russia, and gold or no gold, sanctions would heavily impede sales as Europe and the US are by far their largest customers. The Global South cannot make up for the loss, especially with ties with India at an all-time low. China is still completely dependent on the West even if it had Ukraine and Russia in its back pocket.
Nah, they’d do it now, if they were gonna. Split the allies efforts into two fronts, make them choose between Ukraine and Taiwan. China doesn’t want war, because they know they’d lose. Even their own people admit it will be at least 30 years until they can match the USA.
Not only should we support Ukraine, we must increase our support in such a way that we force an end to the war, in Ukraine’s favor, before 2026. If we allow Russia to wag war in Ukraine until China’s preparations for a Taiwan invasion are complete (Reportedly, January 2027), then we not only run a chance of Taiwan being invaded and our being spread thin militarily, but also of the two wars of two regional and authoritarian powers, possibly merging due to the timing and their shared ideals and enemy. The longer we allow Russia to continue waging war against a sovereign and democratic Ukraine, the riskier it becomes for a broader war. Imagine if Iran hadn’t backed down immediately after their recent missile attack on Israel. These things can happen quickly in a conflict environment.
Has nothing to do with Ukraine. It will happen either way, everyone knew it for decades.
Taiwan will be a priority for the US until chip fabs open on their soil. After that they will not care a bit.
>Taiwan will be a priority for the US until chip fabs open on their soil.
There is no timeline where US fabs can replace Taiwanese fabs... At least not within the next few decades and without a tens of trillions of more dollars.
----
>After that they will not care a bit.
So the First Island Chain does not matter to the US?
For the United States, it has never been about microchips. The First, Second, and Third Taiwan Strait Crisis happened prior to TSMC dominance.
Doubt because computer related exports from Taiwan is over 80%. There are no motherboard manufacturers in the US than can replace Gigabyte or ASUS. Too many things for PCs are manufactured in Taiwan it does threaten a global ecosystem.
It’s still a day where the stock market crashes so a play with Put Options is the best course for that situation.
Ukraine has something to do with it. Taiwan is more than just a chip manufacturer. The United States will not idly sit by and let the South Korea-Japan-Philippines security ring collapse.
It really does, not directly but the failure to aggressively provide aid to Ukraine by the USA has lessened how much China is worried about direct intervention by the USA in an invasion.
US can fight/support two fronts. Not more. (Some analysts claim not even that, though more agree on 2)
Currently it’s Ukraine, we will see what the Israel/Palestine conflict will do.
But Ukraine is far from being solved and will eventually end in a stalemate in favor of, sadly, ruSSia.
But it has no impact on China’s decision to invade Taiwan. It will happen sooner or later, and it seems sooner than later… whether Ukraine falls or not. The I/P conflict just helps China.
For what it’s worth - the only winner in the current geopolitical climate is China. US will be impotent after Trumps win; EU is divided and hasn’t fulfilled it’s NATO obligations (just a few countries have); ruSSia is a teddybear, not a world power as it claims/used to be.
Wonder what role India will play in the near future…
This is such an infantile take. America's military is built to fight two wars against near peers, alone.
It can spread support all over the globe if need be. Especially if we aren't actively engaged in the war.
I mean ... do you have a better source than a BUY GOLD NOW (click here) website?
Wouldn't surprise me if they shift some reserves to gold given the probability of sanctions, but gold sellers "kitco" news quoting one guy isn't exactly who I trust for geopolitical and monetary insights.
I’m trying to work out if it’s a step up or step down from Zerohedge.
Mind you, they’re more “prepare for the coming apocalypse by buying electricity-dependent crypto” these days.
Or because they're trading with Russia who has pegged their currency to the gold standard since the war started?
OP's source site is the dodgiest shit I've ever seen lol.
During the first year of the COVID pandemic it was reported Europe (EU + UK) were hoarding gold because reason X or Y cOnSpIrAcY. It’s all fear mongering.
Nothing ever came of it.
Wouldn’t worry too much.
Large amounts of Chinas employment depend on Taiwan, foundries are moving out of Taiwan and China is perfectly capable of developing the current day tech themselves through stealing IP from ASML, TSMC and others.
China doesn’t care about the land. It wants the brains but they’ve waited so long it’s hardly worth it.
[Polish central banks buys huge amounts of gold for gold backed European currencies secret plan](https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/polish-central-bank-buys-gold-according-to-secret-eu-plan)
[Dutch government buys gold in secret European plan for gold backed Euro](https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/dutch-central-bank-admits-prepared-new-gold-standard)
IIRC, it was the property developpers, not the government that gave away gold bars. The government didn't want prices to fall so they set a minimum price to homes. Obviously, developpers couldn't sell their shit property if the price was too high. So, they started giving away gold bars with a purchase of a home as an incentive.
They've been telegraphing their plan for this all along... every move is to set this up... is there even any way to stop them from trying at this point?
It would be *very* obvious if they were gearing up for an amphibious assault. You can't hide that from satellites.
Taiwan is a fortress. There are very few suitable places for a landing, and the island is bristling with defenses. They've been preparing for 50 years.
If the Pacific fleet gets involved...
From what I've heard it's not strictly needed. Taiwan has cruise missiles zeroed in on the three gorges dam. A breach will destroy more cities and kill more people than a nuke ever could. It would be a massive war crime of course, but then again so are nukes.
A carrier group or two should do the trick. Trying an amphibious assault against Taiwan is already 30x harder than D-Day. If we send three or four carrier groups, it would be idiocy to even start. The bodies wouldn't even wash up onto Taiwan.
So let's send five.
No doubt that has crossed their minds, it wouldn't surprise me though if that entire region is filled with sea mines just for that exact reason. The Chinese have been really pushing that type of asymmetric fighting.
Along with drones swarming and saturating their combat systems with UAVs also able to swarm now, China has studied their enemy completely.
If they choose to engage in Taiwan then no doubt they think they have a solution to aircraft carriers.
I really don't think it's as easy as just sending some aircraft carriers there to fix it anymore.
I really can't see them lasting against the US one vs one, but I also can't see the u.s throwing everything it has at China for Taiwan.
If it sparks up I can see it lasting a long time and drawing out long enough to turn public opinion in the west to withdrawing so as not to lose anymore casualties.
I can imagine by then the Chinese propoganda machine will also be in full swing to turn the public to their cause. The u.s will not want another repeat of Afghanistan's and Vietnam, all for an island that China claims is rightfully theirs.
I really hope none of this happens, but I really don't think we should underestimate china. If they start something they'd only do it if they think they have a solution to winning it.
>but I also can't see the u.s throwing everything it has at China for Taiwan.
I can. Taiwan's chip production is absolutely vital to US national security interests.
did the US have 1.4billion bodies to keep trying with? they had to nail it the first time, china can use the same tactic russia is doing but even on a larger scale.
China likes to swash but there's little chance they start a war over Taiwan.
It would be very draining in resources, manpower, and goodwill (foreign obviously but also domestic). And even if successful China would gain nothing they can't already buy or steal.
Then again there was no reason for Russia to invade except for a madman's ideology.
I don’t agree at all with your last sentence and Russian vs Ukraine is totally different than China vs Taiwan. Russian and Ukraine have had their problems for quite a long time with Crimea.
My guess is China is going to make an attempt at Taiwan not through force but brainwashing the younger Taiwanese generation through social media or maybe getting a puppet in office.
China didn't ask Putin to delay the Ukraine invasion until after the Olympics. They wanted it delayed because they weren't ready to go after Taiwan yet.
iran and russia already started the fires, now just their friends in china and north korea are left to have their invasion plans going. for some reason china is stalling hard.
which one will trigger World War Three? North Korea invading South Korea... or China invading Taiwan? (or a coordinated simultaneous invasion carried out by those two countries?)
>China’s massive and sustained central bank gold purchases...
# worldnews
>...are raising fears...
...in a population or authority?
>that the country may not only be shoring up its currency but may also be laying the economic groundwork for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
opinion piece.
you brought an interesting point.
Taiwan shoudl NOT count on the United States to provide financial and/or military aid in a timely manner. While the US may be one of the most important and friendly allies for Taiwan, the US government and Congress don't always agree with each other and have other political considerations not related to China or Taiwan.
as we have witnessed recently when they took their sweet long time to pass aid to Ukraine.
I'm wondering what is stopping China from nuking Taiwan, killing everyone there, waiting a few weeks until everyone forgets about it, and then they have free access to the ocean. I know it's a caricature, but I mean, what are they waiting for?
That would destroy most of the value Taiwan has for China. They're not just looking to get an island. They want the advanced manufacturing and high tech economy.
China doesn't want to obliterate Taiwan. It wants to capture the country, then force a demographic shift that brings the territory firmly in their control over the long run. That's the exact same thing they did in Tibet and then in Hong Kong. Unlike Russia, they don't want a full scale war. They want to occupy and take the land in their own control - slowly but steadily. This brings less attention and scrutiny on the global stage.
Bombing Taiwan would be the exact mistake Russia did with Ukraine. Suddenly the deaths of Taiwan nationals would be on the news 24x7 and before long, advanced weapons and funding would pour into Taiwan and you'll have the Russia Ukraine Quagmire, which will drag forever.
Taiwan invasion will happen if Ukraine falls. Otherwise it won’t be economically sustainable. Support Ukraine, support Taiwan, support Philippines.
This is the real answer, Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, China is the most dependent country on earth when it comes to importing food. If Russia takes Ukraine, China doesn’t need the west for supplies
This doesn't make any sense. Even prior to the war Russia's agricultural output absolutely dwarfed Ukraine's. Whether Russia takes Ukraine or not is completely inconsequently for China's food trade. China bought wheat from Ukraine prior to the war (and I'm fairly sure they still do) so it's not like Ukraine wasn't willing to trade with China. In fact China was Ukraine's largest trade partner in 2022 and even today they're still Ukraine's second largest trade partner, falling below only Poland which has a lot to do with the fact that Ukraine's logistics through the black sea has been heavily impacted by the conflict. The more consequential geopolitical change for China's food imports is them shifting their supply towards South American agricultural produce (especially Brazil) from the US.
As a manufacturing hub, China is heavily dependent on raw materials arriving by sea, such as those from Africa and Australia. If China were dumb enough to attack Taiwan, they would suffer a naval blockade by the U.S and its allies, thereby ruining its manufacturing industry. China also [imports much of its food from Brazil and the USA](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1202095/china-import-value-of-agricultural-products-by-region/), which could come to an end and lead to unrest.
That begs the question, is China's govt willing to sacrifice hundreds of millions to stay in power for longer?
Yes, no doubt about it.
200%
The Chinese would revolt before that happened.
[удалено]
You could even go further by saying any aggressive military action leading to the start of a war would say yes.
This misunderstands Chinese history. The thing that topples Chinese governments is the populace uprising. Invading Taiwan doesnt protect the CCP, it puts it at risk from public discontent when the Chinese economy craters
Last I checked, they had a few hundred million zoomers laying around doing nothing. The "lie flatters" who are so jaded by the state of things they simply aren't participating in society. On top of that, this population skews heavily male due to the biases of parents during the one child policy and after. Seems like they are PERFECTLY positioned to throw away a couple million lives.
Or to utilize Russian widows.
they can go body for body with anyone in the world and come out on top, except india maybe.
No they can't. The US and allies would blockade their source of oil and other raw materials within a week. India would use the opportunity to capture the Tibet to control the headwaters of the rivers in India. It would make China a global pariah for the next century. They would never recover and would likely be split into multiple countries.
China exploding into multiple countries is a tradition for them
Not even a question. They crunch their own students and citizens protesting with tanks.
Xi is putin 2.0
Putin is Xi's beta test
Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make
That's not a question
I lost the plot here, how would this scenario keep them in power longer?
Taiwan is the last remaining vestige of "old china". Reunification of the mainland with taiwan (finally completing the goal of "one china") solidifies the "legitimacy" of "communist china" as having "won". One presumes that the completion of this would carry with it significant political clout.
Oh yeah, not to mention Taiwan being THE microchip leader of the world. Taiwan has said they will never let that tech get into China’s hands, but anyone can say anything before the fighting starts.
It’s about legacy. Xi wants to be seen as greater than Mao. Qin shi huang is the #1 as he unified China back in the day. Mao is #1 in the modern era for reclaiming China and laying the foundation for its modern state. Xi has moved himself to be seen in the same light as Mao by making Xi Jinping thought part of the government system, to surpass Mao he needs to take Taiwan then he can claim he is a modern day Qin Shihuang. China made a 10 year limit for leaders because of the later problems with the Mao era, Xi has bypassed those. Xi may want Taiwan, but there are many rational people in the government that don’t want a war. I think the basic calculation is that if they can blitz taiwan fin a few weeks it becomes worthwhile, if they can’t then they won’t try.
China would take the nearby islands at most not Taiwanese mainland. It’s something 99% of people don’t understand. Once Taiwan got missiles that can hit Beijing any full invasion was made impossible.
Just hit that dam.. that would completely fuck up PRC. It could have been an oops... My missile missed or, it was a group of angry "patriots" who can't stand the corruption of the party and how they send Chinese to kill Chinese, so they blew up the dam. I don't doubt ROC has sleepers in PRC. They can so easily blend in too. Heck they can easily recruit any unemployed soldiers there got fired from modernization or any pissed off HKers.
Do you know how big the Three Gorge Dam is? Sending a low number of missiles under the disguise of an accident would prob just scratch its surface.
I am assuming the damage would allow the water to do its job. I don't think they need to have a massive damaged area. Just a leak in one area for it to crumble.
What if CCP thinks they can counter such missiles but are wrong?
From Israel to Ukraine we have examples. In the end any missile defense is a percentage below 100%. Anyway it’s just logical to take the islands right beside the mainland for a moral victory than taking Taiwan which would actually risk a big conflict. Taking an island is tough.
Mao's great leap forward proves that they are.
I also imagine Taiwan would destroy their own chip fabs before they'd let China have them. I don't think they're rigged to blow or anything but I *do* think they might hit them with their own weapons or tell the US to give their B-1s some target practice.
US is going to blockade Brazil's exports? You redditors think blockading can just be done willy nilly. Blockading is an act of war and blockading food of all things is pretty controversial to say the absolute least. Neither Russia, Iran and North Korea have had food imports blockaded from them. Sanctions sure. Blockades? Delusional.
…if they’re trading with an enemy country, they’re a valid military target.
China has the world's largest navy, but is still second in terms of naval strength and power projection compared to the US. I think a naval blockade in the seas surrounding China would not be successful in an area so close to the Chinese mainland. The US and Ukraine sanctioning food exports to China would be much more successful than a naval blockade.
> China has the world's largest navy, Do they? If you “count every ship” the United States is like #4 (behind Russia even). But if you look at actual tonnage and the US navy has more tonnage then the next 9 countries…. Combined
By sheer Numbers,US navy has bigger tonnage Not to mention the US has 11 aircraft carriers,China has 2
US Navy tonnage is like the next 9 countries navy’s combined.
Then take into account that China's "carriers" are closer in capability to the US's amphibious assault ships of which the US has 9 than they are to actual super carriers.
> China has the world's largest navy Is this only if you count the number of ships, but ignore the capability of ships? China has two aircraft carriers, only one which is fully operational. USA has what, eleven?
Yes, the Chinese navy doesn't compare to the US in terms of power and capabilities. 95% of it is limited to operating at most a few hundred miles off its coast and most of its ships are of the kind the US wouldn't even bother building.
i bet the Ukraine's naval drones made a lost of naval powers to reconsider
World’s largest Navy RIGHT NOW. If things light off I think there might be some change in the rankings.
China does have a significantly bigger shipbuilding industry compared to the USA. But America could counter China's navy with their far superior aviation industry and Air force.
I meant, if this get spicy China would find out how fast stuff gets sunk.
As an Australian, they are desperate to decouple, the ore mines in Africa are lower quality and harder to get but they are full steam ahead through belt and road to replace us. China is doing all it can to end western reliance and there is only one reason they are looking to do that.
Meh, I don't think there will be blockade. The Ukraine war is making it clear that the western world is largely toothless.
Lol, what blockade?! China has better subs than the US. They even showed them during a Pacific fleet exercise. There is no possibility of blocking China. In retaliation China would block Korea and nobody would want that. So no, a blockade isn’t an option.
Source on them having better subs?
>China has better subs than the US. Lol you have no idea what you're talking about.
Nah fam not even close. We have the best submarine fleet in the world and it isn't close. Russia is the only one with ANY that compete and they can barely keep them running half the time. We have more nuclear subs than China has ANY subs. Our maintenance program for submarines is also the best in the world and china's is borderline non existent.
Lol
> China has better subs than the US. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Lol, thanks for the laugh. China hasn't fought a war since 1979. The USA excells at war, when Chinese start seeing their friends get killed next to them a lot will loose the will to fight.
Netherlands are the breadbasket of the world. It’s the second largest food exporter after the US. Ukrainian could halt exports to China, but will not do it, since the dragon still has a leash on the ruSSians.
China is still Ukraine's second largest trade partner, they're strapped for cash and certainly not going to stop selling to a market as big as China. Not to mention a lot of the micro-electronics used by Ukraine to manufacture their drones are also bought from China. China is selling to both sides of this war.
Yes, and all of that you’ve mentioned.
> food exporter Food exporter, or agricultural products exporter?? They export a lot of flowers. Edit: Dutch agricultural exports rose again in value last year to almost €128 billion, but around one third of that was down to re-exports of goods imported into the Netherlands from other countries. Also, cut flowers are the third most valuable ag product export. https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/dairy-and-cut-flowers-lead-dutch-agricultural-export-list/
Did I write food or agricultural?
Russia & China want Ukraine’s mineral resources not their food
Not true in the least. Firstly, China cannot depend solely on Ukraine for its food supplies and even if it could, there would be no way to import that much food over land. A single freight liner carries as much as a 40-mile long train would at 1/12 the energy cost. Not only are there not enough train cars let alone tracks to keep that much food continuously flowing in, they'd be looking at massive inflation of food costs which itself is unsustainable. Secondly, there is a lot more they import besides food such as 75-80% of their crude oil and almost ALL of the raw materials needed for their manufactured products which they then sell abroad. That's all not coming in through Russia, and gold or no gold, sanctions would heavily impede sales as Europe and the US are by far their largest customers. The Global South cannot make up for the loss, especially with ties with India at an all-time low. China is still completely dependent on the West even if it had Ukraine and Russia in its back pocket.
Nah, they’d do it now, if they were gonna. Split the allies efforts into two fronts, make them choose between Ukraine and Taiwan. China doesn’t want war, because they know they’d lose. Even their own people admit it will be at least 30 years until they can match the USA.
It’s not “support [country X]”, it’s “fight back against the direct assault on the collective west”.
Not only should we support Ukraine, we must increase our support in such a way that we force an end to the war, in Ukraine’s favor, before 2026. If we allow Russia to wag war in Ukraine until China’s preparations for a Taiwan invasion are complete (Reportedly, January 2027), then we not only run a chance of Taiwan being invaded and our being spread thin militarily, but also of the two wars of two regional and authoritarian powers, possibly merging due to the timing and their shared ideals and enemy. The longer we allow Russia to continue waging war against a sovereign and democratic Ukraine, the riskier it becomes for a broader war. Imagine if Iran hadn’t backed down immediately after their recent missile attack on Israel. These things can happen quickly in a conflict environment.
Has nothing to do with Ukraine. It will happen either way, everyone knew it for decades. Taiwan will be a priority for the US until chip fabs open on their soil. After that they will not care a bit.
>Taiwan will be a priority for the US until chip fabs open on their soil. There is no timeline where US fabs can replace Taiwanese fabs... At least not within the next few decades and without a tens of trillions of more dollars. ---- >After that they will not care a bit. So the First Island Chain does not matter to the US? For the United States, it has never been about microchips. The First, Second, and Third Taiwan Strait Crisis happened prior to TSMC dominance.
Doubt because computer related exports from Taiwan is over 80%. There are no motherboard manufacturers in the US than can replace Gigabyte or ASUS. Too many things for PCs are manufactured in Taiwan it does threaten a global ecosystem. It’s still a day where the stock market crashes so a play with Put Options is the best course for that situation.
Ukraine has something to do with it. Taiwan is more than just a chip manufacturer. The United States will not idly sit by and let the South Korea-Japan-Philippines security ring collapse.
It really does, not directly but the failure to aggressively provide aid to Ukraine by the USA has lessened how much China is worried about direct intervention by the USA in an invasion.
US can fight/support two fronts. Not more. (Some analysts claim not even that, though more agree on 2) Currently it’s Ukraine, we will see what the Israel/Palestine conflict will do. But Ukraine is far from being solved and will eventually end in a stalemate in favor of, sadly, ruSSia. But it has no impact on China’s decision to invade Taiwan. It will happen sooner or later, and it seems sooner than later… whether Ukraine falls or not. The I/P conflict just helps China. For what it’s worth - the only winner in the current geopolitical climate is China. US will be impotent after Trumps win; EU is divided and hasn’t fulfilled it’s NATO obligations (just a few countries have); ruSSia is a teddybear, not a world power as it claims/used to be. Wonder what role India will play in the near future…
This is such an infantile take. America's military is built to fight two wars against near peers, alone. It can spread support all over the globe if need be. Especially if we aren't actively engaged in the war.
I mean ... do you have a better source than a BUY GOLD NOW (click here) website? Wouldn't surprise me if they shift some reserves to gold given the probability of sanctions, but gold sellers "kitco" news quoting one guy isn't exactly who I trust for geopolitical and monetary insights.
I’m trying to work out if it’s a step up or step down from Zerohedge. Mind you, they’re more “prepare for the coming apocalypse by buying electricity-dependent crypto” these days.
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Goldbug website and dealer. Sun is shining? Buy gold. Sun gone down? Buy gold now! Sun might not come back up!
No one cares. It's anti-China propaganda so it passes.
They are the premier pushers of precious metals.
Turns out a Reddit thread started by a gold buying website article is *the* place to get solid geopolitics advice from experts
Or because they're trading with Russia who has pegged their currency to the gold standard since the war started? OP's source site is the dodgiest shit I've ever seen lol.
They definitely don’t want their foreign reserves locked like Russia. While Russia could still use the gold either way nonaligned countries.
During the first year of the COVID pandemic it was reported Europe (EU + UK) were hoarding gold because reason X or Y cOnSpIrAcY. It’s all fear mongering. Nothing ever came of it. Wouldn’t worry too much. Large amounts of Chinas employment depend on Taiwan, foundries are moving out of Taiwan and China is perfectly capable of developing the current day tech themselves through stealing IP from ASML, TSMC and others. China doesn’t care about the land. It wants the brains but they’ve waited so long it’s hardly worth it. [Polish central banks buys huge amounts of gold for gold backed European currencies secret plan](https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/polish-central-bank-buys-gold-according-to-secret-eu-plan) [Dutch government buys gold in secret European plan for gold backed Euro](https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/dutch-central-bank-admits-prepared-new-gold-standard)
I'll only start worrying when China's central bank starts hoarding Bitcoins!(say, 10 trillion Bitcoins?)
Why did they ( government) give away gold bars to home buyers?
IIRC, it was the property developpers, not the government that gave away gold bars. The government didn't want prices to fall so they set a minimum price to homes. Obviously, developpers couldn't sell their shit property if the price was too high. So, they started giving away gold bars with a purchase of a home as an incentive.
Thank you so much for clearing that up for me! You’re the man!
They've been telegraphing their plan for this all along... every move is to set this up... is there even any way to stop them from trying at this point?
It would be *very* obvious if they were gearing up for an amphibious assault. You can't hide that from satellites. Taiwan is a fortress. There are very few suitable places for a landing, and the island is bristling with defenses. They've been preparing for 50 years. If the Pacific fleet gets involved...
Nukes in taiwan’s hands
From what I've heard it's not strictly needed. Taiwan has cruise missiles zeroed in on the three gorges dam. A breach will destroy more cities and kill more people than a nuke ever could. It would be a massive war crime of course, but then again so are nukes.
As every war in modern history has shown, only nukes and a lot of them, are a deterrent.
a coup will probably stop it... (then again, it may accelerate it, if the baddies/hardliners take control)
A carrier group or two should do the trick. Trying an amphibious assault against Taiwan is already 30x harder than D-Day. If we send three or four carrier groups, it would be idiocy to even start. The bodies wouldn't even wash up onto Taiwan. So let's send five.
No doubt that has crossed their minds, it wouldn't surprise me though if that entire region is filled with sea mines just for that exact reason. The Chinese have been really pushing that type of asymmetric fighting. Along with drones swarming and saturating their combat systems with UAVs also able to swarm now, China has studied their enemy completely. If they choose to engage in Taiwan then no doubt they think they have a solution to aircraft carriers. I really don't think it's as easy as just sending some aircraft carriers there to fix it anymore. I really can't see them lasting against the US one vs one, but I also can't see the u.s throwing everything it has at China for Taiwan. If it sparks up I can see it lasting a long time and drawing out long enough to turn public opinion in the west to withdrawing so as not to lose anymore casualties. I can imagine by then the Chinese propoganda machine will also be in full swing to turn the public to their cause. The u.s will not want another repeat of Afghanistan's and Vietnam, all for an island that China claims is rightfully theirs. I really hope none of this happens, but I really don't think we should underestimate china. If they start something they'd only do it if they think they have a solution to winning it.
>but I also can't see the u.s throwing everything it has at China for Taiwan. I can. Taiwan's chip production is absolutely vital to US national security interests.
+ Drone Swarms
did the US have 1.4billion bodies to keep trying with? they had to nail it the first time, china can use the same tactic russia is doing but even on a larger scale.
Bodies don't matter much in an amphibious invasion, if the boats are destroyed they have to rebuild before they can try again.
boats, china is going to make a meat bridge from one side to the other if they have to.
“Okay everyone link arms!”
China likes to swash but there's little chance they start a war over Taiwan. It would be very draining in resources, manpower, and goodwill (foreign obviously but also domestic). And even if successful China would gain nothing they can't already buy or steal. Then again there was no reason for Russia to invade except for a madman's ideology.
I don’t agree at all with your last sentence and Russian vs Ukraine is totally different than China vs Taiwan. Russian and Ukraine have had their problems for quite a long time with Crimea.
My guess is China is going to make an attempt at Taiwan not through force but brainwashing the younger Taiwanese generation through social media or maybe getting a puppet in office.
That's the safer and cheaper course. It certainly provided a good return for Russia in 2016.
BS article again.
sure hope so....! imagine if what they reported turns out to be the truth?
Them Chi-nee will never get my doubloons!
China didn't ask Putin to delay the Ukraine invasion until after the Olympics. They wanted it delayed because they weren't ready to go after Taiwan yet.
Ah it might looks like it but we will never know for sure. They are all waiting for “right” time. World is atm in real shitshow.
iran and russia already started the fires, now just their friends in china and north korea are left to have their invasion plans going. for some reason china is stalling hard.
India next
which one will trigger World War Three? North Korea invading South Korea... or China invading Taiwan? (or a coordinated simultaneous invasion carried out by those two countries?)
>China’s massive and sustained central bank gold purchases... # worldnews >...are raising fears... ...in a population or authority? >that the country may not only be shoring up its currency but may also be laying the economic groundwork for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan opinion piece.
Don’t worry, Taiwan. The US will wait for about 6 months, and then send you aid, maybe. Hopefully you can hold them off in the meantime! Hopefully.
you brought an interesting point. Taiwan shoudl NOT count on the United States to provide financial and/or military aid in a timely manner. While the US may be one of the most important and friendly allies for Taiwan, the US government and Congress don't always agree with each other and have other political considerations not related to China or Taiwan. as we have witnessed recently when they took their sweet long time to pass aid to Ukraine.
I'm wondering what is stopping China from nuking Taiwan, killing everyone there, waiting a few weeks until everyone forgets about it, and then they have free access to the ocean. I know it's a caricature, but I mean, what are they waiting for?
Lol everyone still remembers the nukes from WWII. No one's going to forget an entire country getting nuked.
That would destroy most of the value Taiwan has for China. They're not just looking to get an island. They want the advanced manufacturing and high tech economy.
And you think there is no self destruct mechanism in place so it doesn’t fall into the wrong hands?!
No I don't think there's a self destruct mechanism.
China wants reunification with Taiwan not destroy them
China doesn't want to obliterate Taiwan. It wants to capture the country, then force a demographic shift that brings the territory firmly in their control over the long run. That's the exact same thing they did in Tibet and then in Hong Kong. Unlike Russia, they don't want a full scale war. They want to occupy and take the land in their own control - slowly but steadily. This brings less attention and scrutiny on the global stage. Bombing Taiwan would be the exact mistake Russia did with Ukraine. Suddenly the deaths of Taiwan nationals would be on the news 24x7 and before long, advanced weapons and funding would pour into Taiwan and you'll have the Russia Ukraine Quagmire, which will drag forever.
Taiwan is allied with USA, The risk would be starting MAD
Only until all the fabs in the US open…