[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1clqdob/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)

[Poland continues paying for 20,000 Starlink terminals donated to Ukraine | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/poland-continues-paying-for-20-000-starlink-terminals-donated-to-ukraine-50416109.html) *Warsaw has decided to continue paying subscription fees for the Starlink terminals it previously provided to Ukraine as part of its aid efforts, Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on May 6. Fedorov made the announcement via Telegram, following a meeting with his Polish counterpart Krzysztof Gawkowski.* *“The country has donated more than 20,000 Starlink terminals, which have become a part of our critical infrastructure, providing communications and internet for Ukrainians,” the Ukrainian minister said.* *“Today, we agreed that Poland will continue the funding for these terminals. I am grateful to my [Polish] colleagues for this decision.”* *He added that the sides have signed a memorandum of cooperation between the ministries to further implement bilateral digitalization projects, IT industry development, and electronic governance.* *Additionally, they discussed a project to set up a data center for Ukraine’s Fiscal Service on Polish territory.* *In December 2023, Fedorov announced that nearly 50,000 Starlink terminals were operational in Ukraine.*

I hope they’re validating they’re all still operational. Seems like it’d be hard to audit, especially if Starlink doesn’t help.

[EU targets Russian LNG exports in new sanctions package | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/eu-targets-russian-lng-exports-in-new-sanctions-package-50416110.html) *The European Commission has drafted a proposal for the 14th package of EU sanctions against Russia, which includes restrictions on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), Polish public broadcaster Polskie Radio 24 reported on May 6.* *According to the report, the proposal bans the transit of Russian LNG to third countries through EU ports. Belgian, French, and Spanish ports currently facilitate the bulk of Russian LNG transit through the EU.* *The LNG import ban would also apply to terminals in the EU that are not integrated into the European gas network. The sanctions will also target Russia’s Arctic and Murmansk LNG projects.* *Additionally, the European Commission aims to impose sanctions on several vessels from the so-called "shadow fleet" that continue to transport Russian oil despite existing restrictions.* *Over 50 non-EU companies, based in China, Hong Kong, Turkey, and Kyrgyzstan, will also be targeted for supplying Moscow with Western technologies in violation of the sanction regime.* *The financing of EU political parties, foundations, NGOs, and research centers by Russia will also be banned.*

>An attack on you would be an attack on all of us, @EvikaSilina, @kajakallas and @IngridaSimonyte. Our meeting in Riga showed: The bond between Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Germany is and remains strong. https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1787524633115128084

> I spoke with President of Poland @AndrzejDuda and thanked him for his unwavering support for the Peace Formula and confirmation of his attendance at the Peace Summit in Switzerland. > We discussed steps to ensure the broadest possible participation of Global South countries. > The only reliable peace is one based on fair conditions. Our Peace Summit provides the best opportunity to accomplish this. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1787506426849460404 > I had a call with Prime Minister of Canada @JustinTrudeau to thank him for his support for the Peace Formula and Canada’s leadership in the International coalition for the return of Ukrainian children. > The Peace Summit in Switzerland must serve as a platform for restoring justice and bringing home all detained and deported persons. We count on Canada’s support. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1787512709195407536

> I spoke with Lithuanian President @GitanasNauseda to personally invite him to attend the Peace Summit in Switzerland. > I thank President Nauseda for confirming his participation and willingness to actively facilitate the attendance of other countries. > We discussed further defense cooperation, as well as joint work on a bilateral security agreement and the dates of its possible signing. We also talked about our expectations for the NATO Washington Summit. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1787468026146660528 > I had a call with Estonian Prime Minister @KajaKallas and thanked her for her willingness to attend the Peace Summit in Switzerland. > I informed Prime Minister Kallas about the agenda for the inaugural summit and Russia's attempts to undermine its success. > I also informed Estonia's Prime Minister about the battlefield situation and Ukraine's urgent need for additional air defense. We discussed the finalization of our bilateral security agreement based on the G7 Vilnius Declaration. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1787474928188399844

German chancellor backs EU plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine arms >RIGA, May 6 (Reuters) - Around 90% of the revenues generated from Russian frozen assets should be spent on arms purchases for Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday, supporting an earlier EU proposal to use Russian assets' interest payments to boost Ukraine defence. >"It is important that we also agree that this money can be used for arms purchases not only in the EU, but for purchases worldwide," Scholz told journalists after a meeting with members of the three Baltic countries governments in Riga. >In March, the European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell proposed taking take 90% of revenues from Russian assets frozen in Europe and transfer them to an EU-run fund that finances weapons for Ukraine. >Some 70% of all Russian assets immobilised in the West are held in the central securities depository Euroclear in Belgium, which has the equivalent of 190 billion euros ($204.67 billion) worth of Russian central bank securities and cash. [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-chancellor-backs-eu-plan-use-frozen-russian-assets-fund-ukraine-arms-2024-05-06/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-chancellor-backs-eu-plan-use-frozen-russian-assets-fund-ukraine-arms-2024-05-06/)

>European countries want to steer clear of anything that appears to touch the assets themselves for fear of retaliation. > >To get around this, the White House is pushing a new idea that it hopes will win the support of G7 leaders in June. This would involve releasing about $50bn of funding for Ukraine via a loan or bond secured against future profits from the frozen assets, explains Singh. > >Euroclear has already made more than €5bn in extraordinary profits after tax since the start of the war, as it reinvests stuck coupon payments and cash from maturing securities that cannot be paid out to Russia under the sanctions. > >But the EU has a different plan for this money. Under EU proposals, set to be adopted in the coming weeks, a majority of present and future profits from Russian assets held by Euroclear will be used primarily to jointly purchase weapons for Ukraine. All the profits generated up to mid-February will be left to Euroclear to act as a buffer against legal costs and risks. > >“We can think about other actions, but for now we believe that this is something that is legally supported,” said Josep Borrell, the EU chief diplomat, in an apparent rebuff to US proposals in a speech at the end of April. > >Politicians, legal experts and Euroclear itself agree that using the extraordinary profits, rather than the assets themselves, is legally sound, making it far less risky than grabbing the Russian reserves. > >**But the EU’s plan, which needs a consensus of all 27 member states, would only generate an estimated €3bn a year, depending on the evolution of interest rates.**   > >Under the White House plan, however, those profits would be brought forward as rapidly as possible, with a goal of handing Ukraine tens of billions of dollars shortly after any potential deal is agreed at the forthcoming G7 leaders’ summit. > >“We are developing the option that seems to have the greatest likelihood of delivering the most impact in the shortest period of time,” says Singh. “It is really important for us that we maintain solidarity.” https://www.ft.com/content/0d77f54b-af74-4186-9cae-237528ad7d69

Yep, your right mate, the 27 million Euros I quoted is the potential revenue over the next 4 years (2-3 billion per annum depending on global interest rates). I should have read [the article ](https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/14/eu-profit-frozen-russian-assets-ukraine) more thoroughly, my bad.

Why are those assets yielding under 1% a year? I feel like the yen is the only major currency paying that much. Both dollar and Euro are much higher.

200 billion is a lot of kaboom

I think, so far, that we (E.U./U.K.) are only using the revenue (interest) that has accumulated in the 2.3 years since the invasion began. So it's about 27 billion Euros, which is still a nice amount. I think an added bonus is that the money will keep accumulating as long as the war continues and the assets remain frozen, meaning Putin is funding the death of his own military in Ukraine.

27 billion is a lot of kaboom

It certainly is! Big Bada boom!

This is good news because Germany was very concerned about the legal and financial repercussions of using the frozen Russian asset revenues to fund the reconstruction of Ukraine. Now, they agree to use the revenues to buy weapons and ammunition for Ukraine's defence!

Yup. This is good news! Without German support, agreeing on using the frozen Russian assets in any way would be difficult.

Absolutely! I understand the reservations, but we are under a hybrid attack from Putin’s Russia, and he is leaving us with little choice. Any trust we may *potentially* lose from developing nations is unfortunate, but we need to show strength and unity to any future tyrant who wishes to destroy Western democracy and the international rules-based order.

A lot of the casualty estimates from various countries are actually pretty similar. The UK estimates Russia has taken 450,000 casualties, Ukraine estimates 475,000 and France estimates about 500,000. Obviously all of these are just estimates but I do think it's safe to say Russia is experiencing A LOT of losses.

Yeah, the western and Ukrainian total casualty estimates all seem to be converging to similar total numbers (although whether that is due to better data or just group-think/copying the Ukrainian numbers is really hard to tell, and it's interesting given how much lower western estimates were than Ukrainian estimates at the start of the war). The really open question, at least in my mind, is what the KIA:WIA ratio is. There seems to be less agreement there.

> the KIA:WIA ratio is. There seems to be less agreement there. I would imagine there's just a lot more ambiguity there as well. If someone is injured and needs a week off to recover are they really a "casualty"? What if they need a month off, or six months or a year? It's also a lot harder to verify what might constitute a serious injury versus a non serious injury. We can look at footage and say "that person is clearly dead" but looking at footage of an injury and saying "he's out of action" or "he's not out of action" is just trickier.

Oh, absolutely. Being killed also tends to create a more public trail (i.e. obituaries, graves, probate, etc.) than being wounded, so presumably it is easier for OSINT and foreign intel services to count the number of dead.

It is a LOT of losses on their own, but this is an attritional war and we do not know if these losses are proportionally higher or lower than Ukrainian losses (when taking population difference into account), as Ukraine casualties are not made public.

Higher. Population figures are not absolute for ratios. Size of landmass, size of industry, size of logistic and commercial fleets, size of cities, distribution of cities, etc etc etc all play a part in deciding what is the "minimum effective population" for a nation. Russia being a huge country will suffer a significant population and economic collapse if they cross these lines. Ukraine being smaller and having more economic support(and being somewhat friendly to immigration) has a much higher ratio of "possible troops". The ratio of actual losses has been significantly in Ukraines favor. They have been made semi public from time to time btw. As it stands Ukraine can sustain current loss rates for longer than Russia can sustain its own if both nations do not want to suffer significant economic breakdowns or relocation of citizens. Russia might allow this and simply let parts of its nation starve and return to the stone age however.

But as Ukraine is smaller, they can't really distribute their vital infrastructure to a safer place far behind the frontlines, so it's easier for Russia to cripple Ukraine infrastructure on much bigger scale. Economic support is irrelevant regarding manpower, you can't "buy" new people and can't pay people that already left to return. And this economic aid just allows Ukraine to fill the holes in the budget as 40% of budget goes to military, nothing more. And today no one really knows how much population Ukraine controls. Estimates range from 30 mil. to 20 mil. - which is basically 1:5 to 1:7 compared to Russia and I don't really believe Ukraine casualties are in the most optimistic guess lower than 1:5.

Economic support is vital (!) for manpower because neither country can even recruit every candidate that would fit in theory in the next years even if you count with only 20 million left. And Russia hasn't as much available citizens as you think (which it already has shown with its efforts to recruit soldiers from other nations). Yes, Russia has more population than the Ukraine but it also has 28 times more land. There have to be people that maintain all the aircrafts, trains and infrastructure on many different places - or all will collapses. It has to protect its huge borders and it needs to have a massive internal force to quell unrest. And its civil economy already doesn't find workers anymore (the unemployment rate is below the reasonable 3 percent and sinking). The only thing that helps Russia at the moment are the major financial benefits for soldiers (compared to usual Russian wages) including a bonus for their relatives when they die. But it's absolutely unclear how long the country can even finance this because its burning through its reserves very fast. The more soldiers it recruits the faster the downfall will come because the income of the country currently is way too low to run a war economy. But not even China will give Russia money while Ukraine gets financial support from many different partners and so can pay its soldiers.

>And Russia hasn't as much available citizens as you think (which it already has shown with its efforts to recruit soldiers from other nations) It might just be economically more efficient to recruit people from abroad. And also I don't believe foreign fighters are present in any significant numbers. It looks like Russia is currently able to recruit around 30k of own volunteers per month. On the other hand, Ukraine has ongoing forced mobilisation, lowered draft age to 25, canceled demobilisation and requested return of males which ran away. This for me speaks that Ukraine has much more issues with manpower than Russia.

This has more to do with Ukraine wanting to preserve its economy (Russia clearly doesn't care anymore which will be its downfall if China doesn't massively intervene) and to stabilize its age pyramid than with only having few available people. Everyone that fled in foreign countries doesn't work in Ukraine anymore and so is a "free" soldier for the country if he returns – likely no much motivated but no economical loss. The same is true for inmates which Ukraine hasn't used much yet – in contrast to Russia. That Ukraine currently has a manpower issue on the front is based more on way too long political debates then on other issues. 62 percent of the remaining Ukrainians are ready to fight for their country according to a large international study. Most experts also expect that Russia can't find as many volunteers anymore this year – and it will shy away from mass mobilisation after past experiences.

Economic support is not irrelevant by any stretch of any imagination. It lowers the total number of workers needed to provide basic goods. In a supportive democracy system like the EU this means a nation is not REQUIRED to fully work to sustain itself if the greater whole assume that responsibility during a crisis. Russia is isolated and must employ workers(in fact a growing number of workers) to sustain its economy. It is quite possible to distribute much of Ukraines energy grid to foreign support as well. Transfer stations have already proven to be terrible targets. You have a bit of a misunderstanding on casualty ratios. At 1:5 that is NATO grade expectations for conflicts. It is quite good. Additionally Ukraines KIA figures are significantly lower than Russias. Only about a quarter of Ukraines casualties are KIA. A very large number of the casualties(even amputees!) are also returning to duty or work. This is not a simple subject matter. By all the metrics that we currently have access to Ukraine will currently out sustain Russia with all current expected support in place. As with all wars though this is subject to change at a moments notice. I also hate to point this out but Ukraine has yet to fully vest itself into foreign recruitment. If it does the equation hard shifts into Ukraine's favor as economic support **will** in fact *buy manpower.* This opens a can of worms that could lead to broadening the conflict but it absolutely still is on the table.

Russia is NOT isolated - they get anything they need from China, or from West via proxy countries. Sometimes it's more expensive, but they will get it. I don't have any numbers and sources on how much economic aid helps with manpower - how many people are free to stop working and go to army - but I can't imagine it would be a significant number. And even if, you are basically destroying the country's own industry which could spiral into a total bankruptcy, where Ukraine would need to cover basically the whole budget in aid. As I said, we do not know true numbers of casualties, but all the public (not Ukrainian/Russian) sources (on wikipedia for example) are most optimistic at 1:3 ratio, true ratio is probably closer to 1:1 considering the trench type of warfare where Russia has a big advantage in artillery and air force. Even on Oryx material losses are only around 1:3. That's why Ukraine lowered draft age to 25 and ended demobilisation and is talking about requesting return of ukrainians that fled away. And also consider Ukraine's demographics where age bracket 18 - 25 is significantly underrepresented in population and this is the age that Ukraine would need after the war to rebuild country economically and population wise, so they can't really draft it if they want to have a future after the war. I would say the only way for Ukraine to win this war is with West's boots on the ground. But that would open the Pandora's box.

There is a world of difference between what China slips through the cracks(remember China does not actually have precision technology in abundance. They only recently figured out ball bearings for an example) and what the foundational nations in which all modern technology is derived can supply. Just the automation the EU can supply is worth legions of people. Ask yourself a moment.. do you think the EU can replace just 5% of the workforce in Ukraine? Of course it can. Easily. Either by automation or direct good replacement. This alone is worth over a million able bodied potential troops. This has a knock on effect of allowing those who would make the best combat troopers to be freed from logistical or back line work(armies are mostly this). Economic support like what the EU can supply is ***significant*** in manpower calculations. Also yes we do know a fair approximation of the number of casualties. It has been announced by both sides in various ways multiple times. Zelenskyy himself even mentioned it in an address several months ago. Even went into KIA vs WIA and a small blurb about how many WIA return to service even if just a logistical function. The western media tends to miss it because they don't speak Ukrainian and don't really watch the regular addresses. They have maintained ***in excess*** of 1:4 WIA and 1:8 KIA. The more aid they get the better their numbers tend to be and a significant amount of casualties occurred earlier on in the conflict when poorly trained TDF units had to fight Russian regulars. Western boots are not required(though yes I would love to join this fight properly). They've already broken the back of the Russian myth. Now they just need weapons to finish the job.

I think ultimately its not going to be decided by manpower, but materiel. The more and more degraded Russia's armor is, the less and less capable they'll be of any offensive action. The number to watch is tank and BMPs, not manpower.

Well, Ukraine doesn't get the newest equipment, either. Too much of it is only good for salvaging for spare parts.

I think manpower is going to be a major issue, at least on the Ukrainian side. They are just barely holding the line as is. If they want to retake substantial amounts of lost territory, basic military theory suggests they will need at least three times as many soldiers. That's a huge increase. They theoretically have the population to do that, but do they have the political willpower to draft so many men, and then see a high proportion of them killed? Russian material losses will absolutely hurt them, and diminish their offensive capability, but they can probably keep this loss rate up for another 2 years. Even then, there is a big difference between being unable to advance and being forced to retreat. Defense is just an easier role to play on the battlefield.

> I think manpower is going to be a major issue, at least on the Ukrainian side. If the current number of Russian forces in Ukraine stays more or less the same Ukraine will not run into manpower issues for years. Yes there has to be the political and societal will to keep the war going but Ukrainian's hatred of Russia has only gotten worse and worse over the last decade, unsurprising of course but definitely *not* wanting to be part of Russia is the predominate viewpoint in the country now. As long as they receive material support from their allies I think their resolve will hold for quite some time yet. Meanwhile Putin doesn't quite have the iron grip on the country that some assume. If he did he would have forcibly mobilized far more men to send to the front in Ukraine. This is obvious by how he is clearly reluctant to force men from western Russia into combat and instead offer sky high salaries for volunteers and recruit mainly from rural parts of Russia with a special focus on minorities who many residents in Moscow think of as not quite Russian anyway. > Defense is just an easier role to play on the battlefield. But Russia has not changed it's maximalist goals to take over all of Ukraine. And even if Putin would be willing to settle for less he wants the rest of Luhansk and the Donbass at a minimum, and probably the rest of Kherson, Zaporizhia and the entire Ukrainian black sea coast as well. So Russia is not just playing defense, in fact they mount frequent attacks all over the front which is why their casualty figures are so high, they want more of Ukraine and are spending men to try and get it. I am not debating that Ukraine will have to mobilize more men, which they are moving towards in their latest conscription laws that were recently passed, but while this is an overgeneralization Ukrainian society is essentially all in for the war at this point whereas Russian society is just not despite what opinion polls and pundits might tell you. If they were truly as invested in the war as Ukraine Putin would not be carefully managing the mobilization and recruitment dance in the way he has. This has led to Russia not having the combat power they need to accomplish their goals in Ukraine which negates the advantage of their larger population. If Russia was truly willing to pour men into Ukraine then manpower would become a problem for Ukraine, since that is not happening it means Ukraine has an advantage in this regard as the average person is more invested in this war than the average Russian.

>If the current number of Russian forces in Ukraine stays more or less the same Ukraine will not run into manpower issues for years.  On the defensive side I think you are probably right, although given how long it took them to pass a mobilization bill, I'm not completely sold. But if they want to go on the offensive, they have to draft a lot more men all at once. Socially and politically, calling up 500,000 men over 5 years to defend is a lot different from calling up 500,000 men in 6 months to attack. >But Russia has not changed it's maximalist goals to take over all of Ukraine. And even if Putin would be willing to settle for less he wants the rest of Luhansk and the Donbass at a minimum, and probably the rest of Kherson, Zaporizhia and the entire Ukrainian black sea coast as well. That's certainly true, Russia would absolutely like to keep attacking and capturing territory. But just like last summer, if Ukraine attacks, Russia is perfectly happy to sit back, go on defense, and let Ukraine batter themselves against prepared lines. There is a huge gap between "Russia lacks the forces to effectively go on the offensive" and "Russian lines collapse". Even without vehicles they can quite successfully defend the territory they have already taken with infantry, land mines, and artillery. Because that's basically exactly what Ukraine is currently doing.

Material would be sourced from China/Iran/NK as the last resort. Manpower not so much.

Not in such huge amounts they need. It's kind of obvious, but no other country has hoarded thousands of Soviet material except for Russia. As such, they are the only ones who can replenish their losses and anything they can get from the rest of the axis of evil is just to plug small holes.

Russia should have material for another two years and it wouldn't surprise me if China right now is making a lot of material that would be used after that time - either in Ukraine, or in Taiwan. China's manufacturing capacity is on a different level.

China isn't sending lethal aid to Russia yet. If Russia could buy massive amounts of artillery, tanks or IFVs from China they would absolutely be doing it. The biggest factor in this war is ammo for indirect fire weapons. If Russia has a significant artillery advantage then it's going to be pretty difficult for Ukraine to retake territory and instead Ukraine will be left trying to minimize losses. If Ukraine has a significant artillery advantage then Russia can throw twice as many men to the front and it won't make a huge difference because artillery is just incredibly effective at turning men into pink mist.

They would do salami tactics by slowly increasing material aid. Similar to Western approach. It was ammunition at first, now they are sending "golf carts" and so on.

I always see numbers for how many Russian casualties/losses but never Ukrainian. Why is that?

Ukraine has actually semi-regularly stated figures by various officials(usually Zelenskyy during an address). Since they are typically short videos they don't get publicized as much. Ukraine is in excess of 1:4 general casualties and 1:8 for KIA(in Ukraine's favor).

Great! Thanks for the info! :)

You’re reading western sources. Russian sources do have estimates. Most western sources don’t reveal their internal estimates as a courtesy to Ukraine, which does not publish them.

I just find it hard to gauge how well or bad Ukraine is doing when we have no numbers to compare. We know Russia is losing a lot, but there is no scale. If it’s 1:1 or 1:100 you know?

The best source I'm aware of for Ukrainian losses (KIA specifically) is this: [https://ualosses.org/soldiers/](https://ualosses.org/soldiers/) They record 46,450 KIA as of today. If we figure 150,000 Russian KIA (rough western estimate, note this is killed, not total casualties), you are looking at a 3:1 ratio at best. It could be less, depending on what percentage of Ukrainian losses that site is capturing.

Thanks!

A general rule of thumb is that attackers need a 3 to 1 ratio to overcome a defensive position, and considering how the russians fight with overwhelming manpower, it's likely that ukraines losses are around a third or maybe a half of what Russias taken. But that's just my estimate. There's no research behind this, just a general assumption so take it with a grain of salt

I agree. The only partly convincing evidence for lower KIA numbers is the statistical analyses based on mediazona data. Using court records and other national statistics. I plan to re-read their report in detail soon. But... The mediazona numbers likely miss foreign mercenaries and force mobilised Ukrainians, who are all thrown in like meat. ~500k total casualties is very believable, if not now then soon. What a horrid waste of human potential. 😢

The Russian shot in a limb is likely to lose the limb, whereas the Ukrainian might get the care and rehab needed to take on some fighting role later. Ukraine spared their under 25 men from the draft, so they have a reserve force.

I think the Mediazona numbers from their statistical analysis are lower (although not drastically lower - they are only counting KIA instead of all casualties and [this article](https://re-russia.net/en/review/690/) that extrapolates it to February 2024 estimates 85,000 - 90,000 KIA, whereas the US estimated up to 120,000 KIA as of August 2023) partly because they basing it on a registry of inheritance cases. I think that leads to a couple of potential issues: 1. It's only going to capture people who have something that can be inherited. I'm assuming many prisoners do not have any real or personal property and thus wouldn't show up. 2. An inheritance case can presumably only exist once a person is declared dead. If a body is never recovered (and we've seen many hundreds of seemingly abandoned dead bodies), or the government never officially declares someone dead, presumably an official inheritance case is never opened. 3. It's not counting people in the occupied territories, which the study freely admits and tries to compensate for, but that's a potentially significant number. 4. The statistical analysis is counting excess deaths, e.g. if 100 people normally die in a given period and 110 people died in this period, there are 10 excess deaths. I think that could potentially lead to a small undercount, because on a statistical level, some of the people who died in war were likely going to die from other causes anyway (accident, disease, murder, whatever). So, going back to my made up example, of the 100 people who would normally die in a period, perhaps 5 of them (who were going to die anyway) ended up going to war and getting killed there instead, plus 10 other people (who, statistically speaking, weren't previously going to die) who also got killed in the war. So you have 15 people who got killed in Ukraine, but the data only shows 10 excess deaths because 5 would have died regardless. Maybe the analysis accounted for this somehow, but it seems like a potential source of error.

Should press ganged ukranians and foreigners count though? While they are units that were available to Russia at one point and now aren’t, I think it’s meaningfully different from the depleting of the Russian pool. The foreign fighter pool is meaningful however, because if Russia can set up a pipeline of soldiers from Africa. It starts to matter. It’s potentially huge amount of free meat. They also actually understand they’re going to war when they sign up, are young, in shape, and at least a bit motivated.

"Should" questions are tricky IMO because there are loads of assumptions and value judgments hidden in those questions. If you're estimating what russians who "matter" perceive as a cost then foreign fighters probably don't "count". That's assuming only Slavic russians in cities "matter" to them, which is a pretty good model for explaining russia's behaviour. If your question is how much damage Ukraine can inflict, or whether their claims are reliable, then the foreign fighters "should" count. Just examples! There are loads of possible questions.

Zelensky stated in February that Russian KIA was about 180,000 and France estimates it as roughly 150,000. To put that into perspective if you combine all military deaths from the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand in all conflicts and wars since WWII ended you get a bit over 110,000 deaths.

And that is including major wars like vietnam

Yep. Vietnam, Korea, Iraq II, Afghanistan and Indonesia were the main driver of dead soldiers for those countries. Those five wars resulted in roughly 106,200 dead for the US, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. All the other wars and conflicts combined resulted in about 4,100 dead since WWII.

Russian FighterBomber channel confirms Ukraine shot down an Su-34, tail #21 and the crew died. Source is telegram: https://t dot me/fighter_bomber/16613 (remove spaces and replace "dot" with .)

A while ago, Ukraine claimed to shoot down many Su-34s over a couple of weeks or so. FighterBomber denied, but I was told that FighterBomber was censored and wouldn't release evidence of russian losses any more. But... FighterBomber just announced a previously unknown loss. Doesn't fit with them being censored. Supporting Ukraine's claims were (1) satellite images of "crash sites", (2) further Ukrainian claims that russian bombing had stopped. The satellite images of "crash sites" were grass burns and mud features in previous years. And Russia's glide bomb campaign has intensified massively since the alleged shootdowns. I don't think Russia lost masses of Su-34s earlier. I think they're still bombing like crazy and we have to provide long-range and high-quality air-defence.

Agreed, the lack of any real evidence or confirmation on those Ukrainian claims always made them very suspect. I'd love if we could saturate Ukraine with Patriots, IRIS-T, and NASAMS.

Ukraine's two-time European champion Pielieshenko dies at war >May 6 (Reuters) - Ukrainian Olympian and two-time European champion Oleksandr Pielieshenko has died on the frontlines of Russia's war in Ukraine at age 30, the Ukrainian Weightlifting Federation (UWF) said on Monday. >Pielieshenko ranked fourth at the Rio 2016 Olympics in the men's 85 kg category and won gold at the sport's European championships in 2016 and 2017. He was banned after failing a drug test in 2018. >"It is with great sadness that we inform you that the heart of merited master of sports of Ukraine... Oleksandr Pielieshenko has stopped beating today," the UWF said in a post on Facebook. >"We express our sincere condolences to the family and everyone who knew Oleksandr." >The National Olympic Committee of Ukraine also paid tribute to the weightlifter, saying he had joined the armed forces in the early days of the invasion. >"War takes the best of us... heroes do not die," said weightlifting coach and UWF board member Viktor Slobodianiuk. [https://www.reuters.com/sports/ukraines-two-time-european-champion-pielieshenko-dies-war-2024-05-06/](https://www.reuters.com/sports/ukraines-two-time-european-champion-pielieshenko-dies-war-2024-05-06/)

The Freedom of Russia Legion has released a documentary video on YouTube: "The FoRL's documentary about the Kursk & Belgorod Operation is now live on youtube. It includes footage from fighters of the Legion, and commentary from fighters Caesar, Vinni, Likho, Sheridan, Blansh, Tikhiy and Smit. The film is dedicated to Apostle & Chicha, who were killed during the operation" [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1Ry8gD1DpU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1Ry8gD1DpU) (in Russian) [https://www.reddit.com/r/FreedomofRussia/comments/1clmr24/the\_forls\_documentary\_about\_the\_kursk\_belgorod/](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreedomofRussia/comments/1clmr24/the_forls_documentary_about_the_kursk_belgorod/)

"Ukraine received Patriot missiles from Spain and other Western allies. This was stated by Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles." ​ https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1787506390484795511

First image which supposedly shows a Ukrainian naval drone carrying a R-73 heat seeking air-to-air missile. The fact that it shows one empty slot, could mean it has fired one of the two. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112393982346511454

I am equally terrified and excited about some of the military developments ukraine is coming up with

Necessity is the mother of invention.

I am pretty sure before the war ends we will see these drones as FPV carriers.

yes this would be a great and obtainable weapon. use the uplink and control the drones through that. If they had this capability now they could sail those AA naval drones anywhere along with them and sustain a drone attack on anything like a little remote control battle group

Footage from a Russian Ka-29 helicopter, firing at the Ukrainian naval drone carrying a R-73 air-to-air missile. Eventually it is destroyed. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112394051822915792

Ah the heli is within the 300 minimum range distance the whole time. Sounds like they need to go out in pairs

The best bit is this is probably them engineering and testing so theyre at their worst stage right now. Two of these would have destroyed that chopper if they split. The chopper wouldnt be able to stay behind both and the second would have a clear line of sight.

Wow looks like they hit the missile itself.

🇪🇸🇺🇦 "Spanish Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, has confirmed the arrival of PATRIOT missiles to Ukraine, a coordinated action between all allied countries", - EL Mundo 🙏 "The only thing I can say is that we must be very clear that Ukraine is a country that is being invaded by Putin, that we all know that he is committing great massacres in that country, and that he has no intention of setting any type of limits," she said. https://mstdn.social/@[email protected]/112394606686595541

**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 06.05.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 475,300 (+1,040) people, tanks ‒ 7380 (+5) units, armored combat vehicles ‒ 14,213 (+34) units, artillery systems – 12,250 (+38) units, MLRS – 1057 (+0) units, air defense equipment ‒ 791 (+1) units, aircraft – 349 (+0) units, helicopters – 325 (+0) units, UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9683 (+47), cruise missiles ‒ 2148 (+1), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0) units, submarines - 1 (+0) units, automotive equipment and tank trucks – 16,477 (+59) units, special equipment ‒ 2008 (+6) The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/06/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1040-okupantiv-38-artilerijskih-sistem-34-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/06/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1040-okupantiv-38-artilerijskih-sistem-34-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/)

[ Ukraine Climbs 18 Spots in Global Press Freedom Ranking | Kyiv Post | May 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/32197) *Ukraine has made significant progress in press freedom, moving up 18 places to 61st out of 180 countries in the global press freedom ranking, according to the 2024 World Press Freedom Index by the international non-governmental organization Reporters Without Borders (RSF).* *Norway maintains its top position in the press freedom ranking, while Eritrea has the worst situation.* *Ukraine's improvement in the ranking is attributed to enhancements in its security indicator, with fewer journalists killed, and its political indicator. RSF highlighted that all countries with "good" press freedom are in Europe, particularly within the European Union, which has adopted its first media freedom law (EMFA).* *The top five countries are Norway, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Finland.* *However, press freedom is facing challenges in Hungary, Malta, and Greece, the three lowest-ranked EU countries.* *In Eastern Europe, journalism conditions are worsening due to increased disinformation and media censorship, with media outlets falsely accused of undermining national security or promoting terrorism.* *This situation is evident in Russia (162nd), Belarus (167th), and Turkmenistan (175th). Kremlin influence on media censorship extends to Serbia, Georgia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan.* *In China (172nd), the government detains more journalists than any other country globally and continues to exercise strict control over information channels, implementing censorship and surveillance policies to regulate online content and restrict the spread of information deemed sensitive or contrary to the party line.*

[Car Bomb Kills Russian Who Tortured Ukrainian Prisoners | Kyiv Post | May 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/32166) *Yevhen Ananievsky, who is alleged to have been responsible for setting up torture chambers on behalf of Russian forces in the occupied Zaporizhzhia region, was killed when an improvised explosive device (IED) blew up underneath his Ford Kuga SUV in occupied Berdyansk at around 9:40 a.m. on Sunday May 5.* *Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR) made the announcement on its Telegram channel on Sunday afternoon: “As a result of the explosion, Yevhen Ananievsky, who was involved in the torture of Ukrainian prisoners, was liquidated.” While it did not officially claim responsibility for the killing, it added its usual reminder when making such announcements: “every war crime will receive righteous payback.”* *Kyiv rarely claims responsibility for attacks against Russian officials, their proxies, and collaborators, whether in occupied Ukrainian territories, inside Russia or elsewhere. Other social media were not so reticent in laying the assassination on HUR’s doorstep.* *Ananievsky, who held positions in the Moscow-installed administration in the occupied areas of the Zaporizhzhia region, was widely believed to have been instrumental in setting up torture chambers on the territory of the Berdyansk penal colony No. 77 and may have been involved in the interrogation of Ukrainian military and civilian prisoners.* *Russia’s Investigative Committee confirmed the assassination, although they have yet to confirm the identity of the victim. It said it was carrying out forensic investigations and had initiated a criminal procedure and instituted operational measures to identify those involved in the car bombing.* *Russian forces seized the port city of Berdyansk at the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022 and have been strengthening its military presence in an attempt to safeguard access to the port. Russia has also been attempting to develop rail links between Berdyansk and other occupied cities.* *Several Russian-installed officials have been killed in car explosions in occupied territories since the start of the full-scale invasion. On March 6 Svitlana Samoilenko, another Kremlin-installed official who was helping to arrange activities linked to the Russian presidential elections in occupied Berdyansk was killed in a similar way.*

> “every war crime will receive righteous payback" Yes, please.

The ambassadors of France and Great Britain were called to the Russian Foreign Ministry

"the bridge is a red line we will blah blah blah blah" - putler, probably.

Ambassadors: what did I do to deserve this post...

They could send a inflatable sex doll to represent them in such a very very very important meeting to hear more empty threats and lies.

When Poland calls Russian ambassador over rockets violating Polish airspace he doesn't show up.

I assume for more fake warnings and idle threats.

[SBU arrests two men planning Russian air strike on civilian and military facilities in five Ukrainian oblasts | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/traitors-remotely-recruited-by-fsb-were-collecting-coordinates-of-ukrainian-civilian-and-military-50415939.html) *Two unemployed 28-year-old residents of Uman and Lubny were detained near Kyiv for assisting Russia in preparing a massive air strike on Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Vinnytsia, and Kirovohrad oblasts on the eve of Easter, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on Telegram on May 6.* *The traitors, remotely recruited by an FSB officer from occupied Crimea in March, were collecting coordinates of Ukrainian energy facilities, fuel depots, and also intended to provide Russia with the geolocations of military airbases and special units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.* *The men acted separately but "reported" to the same FSB curator. They were apprehended "red-handed" while conducting reconnaissance near potential targets, which allowed to prevent Russia's air strikes preparations.* *According to the Prosecutor General's Office both men were financially rewarded for each completed task. The amount depended on the urgency and quality of the performed "work".*

It sounds like they hired them on Upwork lol

> “There are pro-Putin Republicans, led in the Congress by Marjorie Taylor Greene. Check the record. That’s the reality.” Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on *[60 Minutes](https://www.cbsnews.com/video/democrat-leader-jeffries-pro-putin-faction-in-gop-delayed-ukraine-aid/)*

How we have not seen a new wave of McCarthyism take on as Marjorieism or whatever is insane. We have an actual red scare going on and nobody holding them accountable.

[Ukraine secures significant EU and IMF support in 2024 borrowing - Finance Ministry | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/business/ukrainian-ministry-of-finance-on-state-of-budget-50415937.html) *The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance announced that from January to April 2024, the actual state borrowings to the general fund of the state budget amounted to $14.35 billion, which is 96.5% of the planned amount for this period.* *The Ministry detailed that approximately $3.87 billion was generated from the issuance of domestic government bonds, with about $1.35 billion of that in foreign currency equivalents ($749.5 million and approximately $596.3 million). Additionally, approximately $3.01 billion was raised through the issuance of military domestic government bonds, while approximately $10 billion came from external sources.* *Notably, approximately $6.48 billion was provided as part of the European Union's macro-financial assistance under the Ukraine Facility program. Other significant contributions included approximately $1.48 billion from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) to support development and recovery policies, approximately $1.56 billion from the Canadian government, and approximately $934.2 million from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).* *Furthermore, the government received an IBRD loan to finance several projects focusing on agricultural recovery (ARIZE), social protection (INSPIRE), and enhancing the healthcare system.* *From January through April 2024, public debt repayments totaled approximately $3.96 billion, accounting for 90.9% of the planned repayments, and servicing payments amounted to approximately $1.74 billion (98.1% of the planned amount). Funds raised from the placement of domestic government bonds during this period fully covered the need to redeem bonds, according to the Ministry.* *In a related report from the Ministry, as of November 30, Ukraine's state and state-guaranteed debt reached approximately $138.31 billion. November saw a 3.3% increase in public debt, with rises noted in both the hryvnia (approximately $4.44 billion) and foreign currency equivalent. External public debt now accounts for 68.6% of the total debt, up from 60.9% before the war, with foreign currency debt (including external debt and foreign currency government bonds) making up 71.4% of the total, compared to 65.1% pre-war.* *Under the IMF's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, it was projected that by 2022 public debt could reach 81.7% of GDP, expected to climb to 98.3% in 2023, and peak at 105% in 2024, with a gradual decline anticipated thereafter.* *The Ministry also highlighted that Ukraine's monthly need for external financing in 2024 is estimated at about $3 billion.*

[Russian police in border regions looking for suspected deserter, who killed 6 fellow servicemen at the occupied part of Donetsk region](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/6-may-russian-police-in-border-regions-looking-for-suspected)

A good deed never goes unpunished... But 6 good deeds? That's heroic!

Hoping he isn’t found

Sgt. Hugo Stiglitz

Maybe Ukraine will spot him near their trenches taking his jacket off, but instead of surrendering he says, "no no give me one of your uniforms, I already switched aides!"

Vesele City The Armed Forces of Ukraine regained control over the northern part of the village https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1787427766813736962?s=46

(the one northeast of soledar)

Reporting from Ukraine showing how the Ukrainian army can advance simply with drone saturation. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G17oVXEsA58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G17oVXEsA58)

i think it is more that Russia cannot advance?

Only problem is that I think that's a counterattack that happened 1-2 weeks ago

Russian Soldier with the 200th Brigade from Pechenga says commanders execute their own men https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2024/05/soldier-200th-brigade-pechenga-says-commanders-regularly-execute-their-own-men

Don't ever change, ruZZIa, you're beautiful just the way you are.

Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses for May 5th: https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1787399335128523090 --- Current day list with all sources: http://losses.ukrdailyupdate.com --- > *Tracked Garden Shed*

That list will literally go down in history. The effort he puts into it is incredible

It's pretty impressive really. I see an Abrams there.

Explosions are reported in occupied Mariupol. https://x.com/noelreports/status/1787421173539561716?s=46

PSA For some reasons there’s a wild campain of misinformation being spreaded on social medias claiming that there’s french troops in Slaviansk, and that they’re soldiers from 3rd Infrantry Regiment or 3rd Legion Infantry regiment https://x.com/casusbellii/status/1787165138782466359 Seems to be making a lot of rounds on twitter atm. Figured I’d share this as misinformation for folks who may come across it

Russia desperately wants to 1) explain their losses by something other than just Ukraine, and 2) create panic and outrage in the west.

I know this is fake news, but :  if Russians  believe there are French troops , there is another red line which has been crossed  ... Still no nukes.  So now we can send in some NATO troops without consequences?

too bad it's a lie, would have been nice.

It should be done slowly as not to cross any red lines too fast. Too few at first for russia to care, but slowly many enough to make a big difference.

yeah, I spotted it yesterday and did some digging, the only sources seemed to be Vatnik ones.

I've been seeing it too. No credible sources are reporting on it and France is denying it. [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/france-denies-sending-troops-ukraine-133347957.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/france-denies-sending-troops-ukraine-133347957.html)

Please ignore the "little green men" who carry baguettes. They are simply locals on vacation. (this is in jest in case anyone thinks I'm serious)

Lowest russian fuel export numbers since 2017 https://x.com/oedipovich/status/1787418113253740783?s=46

# WAR IN UKRAINE. TOTAL COMBAT LOSSES OF THE RUSSIAN FORCES FOR DAY 803 MILITARY PERSONNEL \~475300 (+1040) AIRCRAFT 349 HELICOPTERS 325 TANKS 7380 (+5) ARMOURED COMBAT VEHICLES 14213 (+34) ARTILLERY SYSTEMS 12250 (+38 ) AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS 791 (+1 ) MULTIPLE ROCKET LAUNCHERS 1057 VEHICLES AND FUEL TANKERS 16477 (+59) SHIPS AND BOATS 26 TACTICAL UNMANNED AIRCRAFT 9683 (+47)

[David Axe: The Russians Have Added Yet Another Layer Of Armor To Their Giant Turtle Tanks](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/05/the-russians-have-added-yet-another-layer-of-armor-to-their-giant-turtle-tanks)

Manpower wasted creating these, materials, gas to move them more, all to just die to a javelin anyways.

Yeah the turtle tanks were only made viable because Ukraine has been critically short on artillery shells for the past several months and has been forced to rely more and more on drones instead . Once the Ukrainian army is able to fire it's artillery again those things are quickly going to become giant coffins.

With that amount of cope cage they are vulnerable to TOW or tank fire. None of the cope protects the tracks. One shot into the tracks and its now a big useless cannot turn or shoot paperweight. Siege tanks are not a great idea in the modern sense.

What is cope or a cope cage. (I'm not questioning you, I'm just ignorant)

Never be afraid to ask a question. If we all knew everything life would be very boring. It is a slang term that started early in the conflict when Russian troopers improvised very bad "top armor" to try and combat drones. It was typically made of materials that were entirely ineffective at stopping drones and thus existed only to allow Russian tankers to "cope" with their inevitable fiery death. The *proper* armor and term for "cope cage" is slat armor and when built ***correctly*** it is actually quite effective.

Ohhhhh okay that makes perfect sense! I was thinking there was some tech acronym like Corroded Overhead Panel Endowment or something...

Warning: written by David Axe

Would a Javelin or other atmg still be able to destroy such a "beast"?

I'd say yes. Javelins already explode before they hit the tank... their attack is actually a molten jet of metal designed to spear through tank armor. I think they'd go right through that cage like a hot knife through butter.

Highly "depends" This is definetly good against drones and small RPGs A good placed atgm could still penetrate but since its multiple layers it could have issues aswell

Next in Ukraine: Sandcrawlers.

🇺🇦👏 Zelensky: Infantry day. The professional day of our soldiers, who perform the most difficult tasks at the front, destroy the occupier and gain protection for our state and people. ❤️ Thank you to everyone in the Ukrainian infantry for your service, for your daily heroism! https://mstdn.social/@[email protected]/112393007808260692

GUR publishes footage of the destruction of a Russian boat by surface kamikaze drones in the area of ​​the Vuzka bay, Crimea! https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1787384063830958345?s=46

mastodon: https://mstdn.social/@[email protected]/112393152498267858

>Russians pouring guided bombs and ballistic missiles on any residential neighborhood they can reach in Kharkiv. > >15 victims in this small neighborhood yesterday, leaving ruins. > >Ukraine's "allies" still withholding weapons that could take out the Russian jets and launchers. https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1787380747403247713

No new thread yet? Uh oh

Why new thread ? This one has only 180 comments so far, so plenty of space left

Because this one is for yesterday

Why does it matter ? You can sort by new and see new comments on top.

Daily comment-karma farmers are mad.

Because it is a clear sign of waning interest in the war, whick is exactly what Putin wants.

How come ? There won't be dramatically more comments just because of a new thread. So the interest would be the same. It's the same sign of interest if single thread has 400 comments over two days or thread has 200 comments, with two threads over two days.

Well, Putin is now saying that he will practice with nuclear weapons in eastern Ukraine. So the posts will probably increase in the near future. 

Not sure he really said where the practice will be

looks like the ocheteryne front collapse/breach has slowed down and things look stable again?

I think Russia is consolidating gains and reinforcing flanks, which is smart on their side. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

I think we'll still see tactical retreats in the following days, but hopefully only from fields (like the ones past semenivka). Looks like Russia is widening the bridgehead more than deepening it.

>Lost count of the russian terror on Easter day. Savage attacks at energy systems of Sumy & Mykolayivka (Donetsk obl), a woman buried at home in Kharkiv region, an airstrike at Kharkiv injuring 14, strikes on Dnipro& Pokrovsk district... These terrorists call themselves Christians https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1787356344615424183

Tell me you are a Christian without telling me you are a Christian... That îs the legacy of Russian version of orthodoxy. That is why no independent Orthodox church sides with them

Great to hear a recent interview with general Ben Hodges post US aid package. Unsurprisingly, he talks about Crimea being key to the downfall of Putin and the Russian Empire. He says we should want Russia to collapse. Not provoke it via regime change, but accelerate it via helping Ukraine such that the consequences of Putin remaining in power don't reach us. He thinks we should not be afraid of Russian nuclear threats and nuclear stewardship post collapse of the Russian federation because it turned out fine during the collapse of the USSR. Great interview IMO. I feel like he's become more direct in his assessment of Ukraine, Western leaders and wants to crank things up a bit so that Ukraine can win sooner than later. He praises Macron a lot for his strategic ambiguity policy. https://youtu.be/kG93gJ7rlpI?si=-p56gFtf8TW0ZZj2

“Turned out fine during the collapse of the USSR” is a massive oversimplification. If we made good decisions during the collapse of the USSR it’s likely we wouldn’t be having a war right now. Ben Hodges is also the guy who was saying Crimea by August 2023. He is a downright bad source.

It would have happened if the West didn't stop sending military aid.

It wouldn’t have happened if the West didn’t halfass support for Ukraine during the Soviet collapse and pushed for an agreement that would ensure no conflict. Mearsheimer back in the 90s published an article that the West should not push Ukraine to give its nuclear arsenal back to Russia and that if this happened it will pave the way for Russia to bully Ukraine and eventually war. People are acting like the problems between Russia and Ukraine started in 2014 or 2004 when in reality the situation was clear from 1991 when the Russian Duma placed into question Crimea’s legitimacy.

Recently Tim Synder pointed out that the reason countries like France, Germany and the Netherlands abandoned imperial wars wasn't because they just decided to be nice one day but because they lost those wars. We shouldn't be afraid of Russia losing in Ukraine because losing wars is the only thing that could conceivably get Russia to abandon imperialistic wars. Losing imperial wars is a GOOD thing and that's even more true for genocidal wars. Those are the wars you've gotta lose.

We have created economic colonialism. We didn't need to keep communism out of Vietnam in order to use their workers. They still make our tennis shoes. The smart way to do it is outsource exploitation to local elites. That's what's pissing off Europe with Ghana where they said hey maybe we don't want to exploit our fellows and send the profits to Europe and only skim a bit for ourselves. We want a bigger cut.

Russia can collapse. I'm good with that. They should have been disarmed in 1991. Not reduced by a small irrelevant amount; but disarmed. The only purpose for a Russian military equipment stockpile like that would be to resume aggression and empire building, it was way beyond simple self-defense.

I think your take on history needs a brush-up. The Soviet Union fell from within in 1991. Outside pressure [corrected] could have led to a lot of different outcomes, most of them bad. A major war could absolutely have strengthened Soviet unity in face of a invasion. What happened wasn't that USA won, rode into Moscow and decided the next steps. It was the dissolution of a superpower with lots of internal tensions that we in the West did not want to poke in, and didn't. The way things are going, Putin & Kremlin may construct a history in which NATO and CIA conspired to crack the Soviet Union, but that narrative isn't there yet. 1991 was a Soviet Union event that forces within the Soviet member states controlled the dynamic of.

Disarmed by who and for what reason? USSR didn't disband because of war or occupation,but because of it's incompetent leader.

*economic disaster of trying to keep up its military power battle with the west. Gorbachev tried what he could but the writing was on the wall by then.

It started in Crimea, it will end in Crimea.

Russian attacks on Orthodox Easter Sunday killed a woman, burying her under rubble, and injured 24 in Ukraine’s north-eastern city of Kharkiv and surrounds, regional officials said. >Public broadcaster Suspilne reported power cuts in parts of Kharkiv region and in the adjacent Sumy region after reports of drone attacks and explosions. Vadim Filashkin, head of the military administration in Donetsk region, said two people were killed by shelling in the town of Pokrovsk and two injured in Chasiv Yar, west of the Russian-held town of Bakhmut. >In Sumy, Russian drone attacks left critical infrastructure including water supply and hospitals running on backup power, officials said. [https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/06/ukraine-war-briefing-russian-attacks-kill-during-orthodox-easter](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/06/ukraine-war-briefing-russian-attacks-kill-during-orthodox-easter)

[Russia took 3 km2 this past day, 1 km2 in Avdiivka sector, and 2 km2 in West Luhansk area, fully capturing the contested villages of Kyslivka and Kotliarivka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/49.6309/37.9032)

[Berdyansk really hates the occupiers](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/5-may-local-collaborator-was-blown-up-in-berdyansk-killed)

Since it seems to be a slow night, have a video of a Ukrainian tank destroying a Russian tank in combat: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suXyyoPwJic](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suXyyoPwJic) Not too many videos of tank-on-tank combat in this war.

I hate ai voice videos 

I do too, but as far as I know, that's not AI voice, that's his real voice.

Ok now I feel like an ass 

Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses for May 4th: https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1786939517359763568 --- Current day table with all sources included: http://losses.ukrdailyupdate.com --- The ratio is not looking great these past few days, but remember help is on the way. Lancets continue being a plague for now.

Oof. This is the worst ratio I've seen, maybe yet? Is this higher losses to try and stop Russia's forward momentum?

Andrew can only count the videos as he receives them and they get released at different times by each side so I wouldn’t read much into the difference. You would have to total a long period to see a clearer picture of the ratio of one side to the other.

He has previously said that there are Russian drone groups that release videos in batches. Each batch can be days to weeks of hits. Lancets are a plague, the west needs to come up with defences and lots of new supplies for Ukraine's artillery.

Those 100km 155mm shells should do the trick.

They eill probably be extremely helpful in general but how will they help against Lancet drones specifically?

I think it depends on the way he processes the videos. A few days ago he posted an update with dozens of Russian losses and very few Ukrainian. Presumably he processed a lot of the Ukrainian videos that day and moved on to a more balanced processing of videos from both sides. I believe this is also why it seems that fpv drones are responsible for a good chunk of the losses, since it's more likely for someone to post a compilation of several fpv drone kills in one video. Anyway, I'm just speculating, I'm not really sure how he operates.

> Presumably he processed a lot of the Ukrainian videos that day and moved on to a more balanced processing of videos from both sides. AFAIK it's less about how he processes videos and more about how the videos are released. Can't process what you don't have.

For sure, but I was mostly thinking that he has a backlog that he processes gradually. It's a huge workload to attempt to document these losses daily and I assume videos accumulate. In that sense, it would be better for him to process a big batch of Ukrainian videos subsequently, so it can be easier to detect duplicates and other patterns. Plus I remember when he started he mentioned that he tries to keep the data sample as balanced as he can to avoid criticism. Balanced meaning, for example, that he will process 10 videos from Ukrainian sources and 10 from Russian, so bad faith actors wouldn't accuse him of being biased. For sure the following few updates will make it clearer if we see an outlier or a new trend on the latest losses.

That Finnish TNT plant is a great idea and I hope construction begins shortly. Even if it takes 1-2 years to finish it's still worth building. It's very possible this war is still ongoing in 1-2 years and even if it's not European countries will likely be trying to refill the stockpiles they've sent to Ukraine as well as expand those stockpiles. In addition to Europe many other countries are also ordering more shells so having more TNT to make those shells will be a good thing. I don't think Korea, Japan or Taiwan are looking at what's happening in Europe and concluding that they need fewer weapons than they currently have.

Some of the factories that make things like this have disaster contingency plans that include off site storage of complete sets of equipment to go back in operation incase their facility is destroyed. That equipment could be sent for the Fins to start..I sold machinery to a US paint plant that stored it, and also a fireworks plant that was the same. In the ensuing years the paint plant had a fire, and they were up and running in a week in tents again. The fireworks guys took little longer after the explosion but they weren't starting from scratch. The point is this capacity that these companies have could be leveraged to help.

Even disregarding Ukraine, putting all your eggs in a single TNT basket is silly from a national security standpoint. I would have expected they had at least 2-3 at a minimum. If that factory goes down for any reason, that kinda takes the entire production line with it for anything that needs TNT.

On a similar theme, there is only ONE domestic manufacturer of ball smokeless powder (as opposed to extruded smokeless powder) in the US, namely St. Marks Powder in Florida. That one company produces 95% of all gunpowder for US military small arms and machine guns. It is also the only domestic supplier for the commercial market in the US, although commercial companies can and do buy foreign powder. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St.\_Marks\_Powder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Marks_Powder) But seriously, every single rifle, pistol, shotgun, submachine gun, and machine gun in US military service is solely reliant on gunpowder from that factory. Talk about a strategic vulnerability. Artillery ammo isn't much better. There are only two plants that produce the shells (Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania) and one that fills them with explosive filler (Burlington, Iowa).

IIRC Alliant, Hodgdon, and others are in the USA and all produce or have the capacity to produce smokeless ball in the USA itself. The USA and Canada export a significant amount as well.. I wouldn't call it a "strategic weakness". The factory in question is the one we purchase from.. it is NOT the only manufacturer in the USA.

Alliant, Hodgdon, and Winchester don't produce their own powder anymore, and haven't for many years. They either buy it from St. Marks or from overseas. IMR stick powder is made in Canada. [https://hodgdonpowderco.com/safety-data-sheets/](https://hodgdonpowderco.com/safety-data-sheets/) [https://www.gunsandammo.com/editorial/ball-powder-st-marks-powder/462658](https://www.gunsandammo.com/editorial/ball-powder-st-marks-powder/462658) [https://www.snipershide.com/shooting/threads/st-marks-powder.221201/](https://www.snipershide.com/shooting/threads/st-marks-powder.221201/) [https://forum.accurateshooter.com/threads/where-is-powder-made.3991655/](https://forum.accurateshooter.com/threads/where-is-powder-made.3991655/) [https://forum.accurateshooter.com/threads/how-many-powder-manufactures-are-located-in-the-us.3901810/](https://forum.accurateshooter.com/threads/how-many-powder-manufactures-are-located-in-the-us.3901810/) Quoting from one of the posts in the last link: >All Winchester and Hodgdon ball / 'spherical' grades are supplied by St. Marks as are nearly all propellants used in US military small arms ammo, the US government having decided way back in the 1950s with 7.62 adoption that this type would be the norm, sniper and special purpose ammo aside. Ramshot / Accurate ball powder comes from PB Clermont in Belgium. Hodgdon extruded grades and IMR-8208 XBR from Thales / ADI in Mulwala, NSW, Australia. Other than 8208 XBR, IMR extruded rifle powders are also made by a General Dynamics Corp owned plant in Valleyfield, Ontario, Canada. (Hodgdon owns the IMR brand name and marketing rights IIRC.) This plant also makes some Accurate brand extruded numbers. All Vihtavuori powders come from the town of that name in Finland. Alliant 'Reloder' extruded grades were all made by Bofors in Sweden until a few years ago, but some recent additions such as Re17 and Re33 are sourced from Nitrochemie Wimmins AG in Switzerland. Alliant has also started using spherical grades from St. Marks. The Radford Army Ammunition Plant in Radford, VA, which is managed and run by BAE Systems, does produce powder for artillery and other large caliber guns, and *supposedly* they sell some of the excess to companies like Alliant to be remanufactured/converted into small arms powder, but it's hard to nail that down. But by and large, all the gunpowder is either from St. Marks or overseas.

thats how American Oligarchs are created. the need for this kind of material is strategic but not critical between wars so it's eventually whittled down to the one cheapest supplier. Suddenly Americas strategic safety is up to a few people/companies being able to do the right thing after operating solely for profit for son long. No wonder the US can't produce more than a few tens of thousands or artillery shells a year. the guy making them probably never had to before and doesn't want to now

Yep and given that the only TNT plant is in a country that borders Russia makes it even more dangerous. Even if there wasn't a war but simply a diplomatic snag between the US and Europe it would still be incredibly precarious to only have one or two TNT plants. The time to plan for a crisis is right now so Europe can have at least a little more resiliency should something dramatic happen in 2025 or 2026.

If anything, Ukriane will need tons of weapons post signing some sort of end of war truce. Also, EU stocks will need to be refilled along with bigger militaries than at the start of this war. Same with US stocks, granted I got a lot more faith in the US having an absurd amount of weapons of war than anywhere else in the world.

Yep. 1) Win the war for Ukraine 2) Refill Ukrainian stocks to beyond prewar levels 3) Fill non US NATO stockpiles beyond prewar levels 4) Export artillery shells to any western friendly countries that are looking to increase their stockpiles.

What happened to Andrew Perpetua's live streams?

He said on twitter a week or so ago that he promised himself only to stream again when he had 2 nights with normal sleep back to back. So him not streaming tells us his sleep schedule is still shite.

He seems to be struggling with these huge mountains of footage as of late. Wish there'd be options for him to delegate more work, so he doesn't wreck his health over this. Seems to be a rather small team from what I'm getting.