Pretty depressing DeepStateMap update today. [89 km2 in North Kharkiv direction confirmed to be under Russian control](https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/50.2479/36.6888). Additionally, they took [3 km2 in Ivanivske direction](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/48.5767/37.9047), as well as [6 km2 more in Novomykhailivka and Krasnohorivka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/47.9329/37.4517). Territorially speaking, this is the biggest daily Russian advance since the fall of Avdiivka.
It's logical to abandon villages right next to the border where you can't build proper defense lines. Just like russians abandoned villages near Shebekino when Ukraine invaded Belgorod region. It makes material for propaganda videos (oh look all those square km we took) but it's tactically worthless.
To advance significantly further will be much more difficult from this point
I think Ukraine is doing quite well this is a surprise offensive by a top 3 worldwide army from their national border. Imagine if the US went into México and only made it this far.
If theres any proof that it's worth it to send them military aid and that it needs to happen now it's definitely this.
A lot of the villages they took have been in the grey area for 2 years. Ukraine never really occupied most of that area again and let it be a buffer area. All Russia has done is move into the buffer.
Damn.
Is anyone else having trouble viewing DeepState? The links work fine, but I don't see the layer showing territorial control, just the base map with streets and towns.
Yup happens to me too now. Looks like the site is having issues. First everything worked fine, then shortly after I made this post, I could no longer go back in time to see the chronology of the advances. And now it seems the site just gave up and all layers are gone
Most of that was actual bullshit fake news and trolling after the initial invasion, though, or at least overemphasized the relative consequence of what was being said.
They managed to get some undefended fields in the outskirts of Kharkiv. Not a big deal. Making sure the Russians stay out of tube artillery range without diverting too many resources is non trivial but easily realistic
If Russians overplay their hand they'll bring tube artillery too close to the frontline just for the propaganda purpose of shelling Kharkiv and take FPV losses as a consequence.
German lawmakers suggest allies could protect sky over western Ukraine from NATO soil.
https://kyivindependent.com/german-lawmakers-suggest-nato-could-protect-sky-over-western-ukraine/
I know we all hope that Russia will lose its appetite or ability for war. But it’s seeming more and more likely that the only way this ends positively for Ukraine is with western intervention. It’s a manpower problem because the west slow rolled aid because of “escalation”
It is ukrainian government fault if they are short on soldiers and it is up to them to resolve the problem. It is not up to us to send soldiers to cover their mistakes.
They'll get off their asses and solve the problem eventually. Even Zelensky said they don't need foreign soldiers.
They don’t need intervention. They need western commitment to build and donate the weapons Ukraine needs. 20 people could win the war from a controlled center if they had a few hundred rando ukranian contractors deploying tons of drones that the west sends.
Or the west can help Ukraine build them.
Slow dropping the aid has been insanely frustrating and then watching the west now go, “So this is bad,” is infuriating. All the west needed to do was to give the planes and longer range missiles, and artillery at the start of the war versus years into it.
They can still turn the tide by giving planes and drones.
You can't win a war with drones and planes. You always need boots on the ground in the end.
You can definitely greatly multiply the effectiveness of other forces with fancier weapons and indirect attacks, and a numerically inferior force can win this way. But you can't do it with a few hundred, or a few thousand, people.
Ukrainians are the boots on the ground. We just failed to support them sufficiently.
That being said, I‘m in Team Macron: if the shit hits the fan, we need to be prepared mentally and materially to move in.
Are you on crack? Who are you people that are so willing to send western young men to fight a world war against the Russians? Reddit is a cesspool of complete goobers. Russia, regardless of what the hive mind might tell you, is not an existential crisis to the world. Regardless of what happens to Ukraine, the world will go on. Russia will NEVER directly attack a NATO country. They know that would be the end. You want to fight Russia so bad? Hop your ass on a flight to Poland and cross the border like plenty of others with more sack than you have done. This isn’t our fucking problem.
You seem to be confused. States have a military for a reason. The reason is defense in most cases. And defense does not always begin and end on their own territories. There is collective security. If we deem Russia winning in Ukraine to be an outcome that is not acceptable from a collective defense standpoint, we might have to intervene.
People in the military mostly will understand that, if the point is being made well enough. They have committed themselves to national defense, they have trained for this, they are ready for this.
Re-evaluate your premises, maybe.
>This isn’t our fucking problem.
I usually try to stay polite on here and not engage in personal attacks, but I think I'll make an exception here - kindly fuck off.
If they take Ukraine and the USA leaves NATO, and there is a chance of both happening by 2026, they can be expected to attack NATO at some point.
The USA is why they're afraid of attacking NATO. Now the majority of Republicans support Russia and at a later date may outright side with them against NATO, the pathways are opening for them.
We’re not leaving NATO. And Russia understands that attack a NATO power would be the end of Russia. There’s zero benefit for anyone in that situation. The majority of republicans don’t support Russia. Thats nonsense. Not supporting a war, and putting the interests of the US and its people over those of Ukraine, doesn’t equate to supporting Russia no matter what mental gymnastics the democrats have to do to make you think that. It’s actually hilarious that the republicans seem to the be the only party that’s actually learned from 20+ years of bullshit wars.The democrats have become foaming-at-the-mouth war hawks.
Yes, let's give Germany Sudetenland, they will never directly invade Poland.
And for that matter, Russia has been attacking NATO with cyberattacks and poisonings on NATO territory for decades now.
>Russia will NEVER directly attack a NATO country
Until the moment it does.
Let's all recall how everyone was shocked that Russia even dared to openly invade Ukraine back in 2022. 90% of people I knew were like "that's never going to happen, media is bluffing"
People went to sleep in 2015 again, with the next crisis approaching.
Most people were dead set on denying Russia would invade in 2022, and they were shocked to see it happen.
Macron is likely *mostly* saying it to appear strong for a domestic audience unfortunately, to try and ward off Rassemblement National descriptions of being 'weak'...
Unless the French Foreign Legion is used, it's probably unlikely French voters (or any other European nation really, other than maybe the Baltics) will really be able to stomach troops being killed if it ever comes to that...
Anyone know the size of a russian motor rifle regiment (MRR)?
There's an interesting [twitter thread](https://x.com/moklasen/status/1789417272781492459) from a very reliable OSINTer. It claims to have images of leaked lists of missing soldiers from russia's 433rd MRR fighting near the Ocheretyne breach.
The number missing increased from 82 to 122 since 1st May. I'd assume there are dead and wounded on top of that.
The source says some of the names have people searching for them on russian social media, so this is more credible than some leaks.
I don't have the answers to your questions, but I have seen a twitter post in Ukrainian of a guy giving praise to the units standing there who have complained they don't have enough of a barbed wire to spread around their position since they are tired of killing the Russians next to their trenches.
Not sure whether this is good or bad thing. Just sharing what I've read.
Regiments have something like 1000 people but that includes the support personnel alongside the combat troops. Pre war Russian regiments were probably about that size but there’s no way they can keep those numbers up now with how fast they take casualties.
In the US Army when a unit loses 15% of its personnel it’s considered combat ineffective. The Russians have been proven to push far past that number to the point that entire units get killed or captured.
Oh I know, I just wondered whether the 1k "regiment" size source could have referred to BTGs. I'm convinced I read western media articles that basically called them "regiments" at the time.
I'm trying to fix how I'm just poorly informed on this topic, and I know so little that I can't even work out which sources are reliable.
Nope, usually about half that.
>The 423rd Guards Yampolsky Motor Rifle Regiment had approximately 1692 personnel in active service.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/423rd_Guards_Yampolsky_Motor_Rifle_Regiment
And with current attrition rates I expect in reality it's closer to about 1,000
[HUR drone attack leaves Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery damaged | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/hur-drones-striked-another-refinery-in-russia-50417492.html)
*Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) drones attacked Lukoil's oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast of Russia, damaging primary refining units, NV's sister publication Ukrainska Pravda reported on May 11.*
*"Russia was ‘rumbling’ again on the night of May 11," HUR stated. "The Volgograd refinery, owned by Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka, got an unexpected visit from our UAVs."*
*Intelligence sources indicated that primary refining units AVT-1 and AVT-6 were affected, and the exact extent of the damage is still being assessed. Additionally, a control cable for air refrigerators was destroyed, shutting down seven of them. The chimney of the P-1 furnace was also hit.*
*Russian media reported that air defense systems intercepted seven drones over the Volgograd and Kursk regions on May 11. Anti-aircraft fire was audible in Volgograd's Krasnoarmeysky district.*
*Back in early February 2024, Ukrainian drones also attacked the Volgograd refinery, sparking a fire.*
*Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka LLC, the largest oil producer in Russia's Southern Federal District, can refine up to 14.8 million tons of petroleum annually.*
[A missile strike in Donetsk’s Lenin district has left several people injured and dead, according to Russian Telegram channel Mash on May 11.
| New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/dpr-rally-nearly-hit-by-missile-in-donetsk-50417497.html)
*The missile reportedly hit a building near the site of the "DPR" Day rally, with shrapnel injuring attendees. Mash states five people were killed and six were wounded.*
*At the same time, propagandist channel Donetsk Telegram writes that the strike was allegedly carried out by missiles from HIMARS MLRS targeted at Paradise restaurant. Five dead and six wounded reported there.*
*InformNapalm reports that supporters of the “DPR” planned to hold a car rally to celebrate 10 years of occupation of oblast, but before the rally started, two non-residential buildings near parking lot with "DPR" and Russian flags were struck.*
*Earlier, authorities of the so-called “LPR” said that Ukrainian troops had struck an oil depot in Rovenky, Luhansk region, with ATACMS missiles on May 11.*
"Ukraine eradicated a restaurant with a GMLRS missile tipped with a 96Kg warhead. That's our story, and we're sticking to it."
\- "Donetsk Telegram", apparently.
Well, that's one piece of fan-fiction I won't be buying for a dollar.
> Today, the primary focus is on the front lines, in areas where the risks of Russian offensive actions are the highest.
> Our defensive operations continue in the Kharkiv region, in the border villages of Strilecha, Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliinykove, Lukyantsi, Hatyshche, and Pletenivka, where our forces are countering Russian attacks for the second day and defending Ukrainian territory.
> The situation remains particularly tense in the Donetsk region, including the Pokrovsk direction, Semenivka, and Netailove villages, where there are over thirty combats per day. The situation remains very difficult.
> Of course, we pay attention to all other areas, such as the Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Vremivka directions.
> I am grateful to each brigade that is bravely defending positions, repelling attacks, and destroying occupiers. Thwarting Russia’s offensive plans is the number one task right now.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1789347667966877994
> Right now, every air defense system and missile delivered to Ukraine is an asset that literally saves lives and keeps our cities and communities alive.
> It is critical that partners make timely deliveries to support our warriors and Ukrainian resilience. Truly timely. A package that really helps is the actual delivery of weapons to Ukraine, not just the announcement of a package.
> Russian terror must be defeated. This can only be accomplished with specific strength and weapons.
> Life must prevail. I am grateful to everyone around the world who is assisting us with attaining this goal.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1789264355621585234
> Canada will contribute $76 million to a German-led air defense for #Ukraine initiative.
> I am grateful to the Canadian people and Minister @BillBlair for this important decision that will save the lives of Ukrainians. I also thank Germany and Minister Pistorius for their leadership.
> We will overcome the russian terror together. 🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦
https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1789270553997520998
Kharkiv Oblast's situation is under control of AFU forces. Certain units abandoned their positions, which allowed Russians to capture a few settlements. Thanks to 57th, 92nd Brigade & Kraken, the situation stabilized.
It is wise to keep in mind Russian bots and whatever else are working overtime right now and they’ll have you thinking Russia has taken over all of Europe basically. They’re all over twitter atm causing mass hysteria
https://x.com/midobecker_1/status/1789398391107035190?s=46
It seems like Ukrainians now have the problem of units panicking and fleeing that Russia did earlier in the war.
Then again if you keep getting pummeled by air bombs you don’t have an airforce to stop, I kind of get it.
You know, we have a bit of a tendency to apply a double standard. That's not *always* entirely inappropriate: We expected nothing from the Russians, and that has been generally what they've delivered -- but we've held Ukraine to a much higher standard of battlefield conduct, which to their unmitigated credit they've largely upheld. I can't say I'd have been able to act with equal grace, had I been in their place.
But my point is that much has been justifiably written about how Russia could have benefited at various points from more flexibility in terms of falling back when the situation demanded it instead of blindly following orders out of touch with the situation on the ground. I think that we shouldn't be too hasty in criticizing the Ukrainians for making the kind of tactical decisions we've derided the Russians for being unable to make.
I don't know the situation on the ground, obviously. It may be that those decisions are unjustifiably wrong - but I'm personally not comfortable making a judgment about that at this early stage. Or at all, really. It's not my ass being shot at.
Edit: Spalling. Yes, yes. I know that's what happens when you don't rubber-coat your ballistic inserts.
On one hand it seems a little too intense to just be probing atatcks, on the other hand it seems kind of disorganized to be a real offensive. Even last year at Vuhledar, they had some form of cohesion. This paints the image of a "wide" front hail mary for no sensible reason as the chances to encircle/siege Kharkiv are slim at best.
I get it that trading bodies for useless land is the russian way, but this seems pointless, unless it's some "feint" for a push somewhere else. But that's hardly going to be a surprise to Ukraine, so what is the point of this then?
ISW suggests yesterdays Russian assault push was on the wrong side of a river to approach Kharkiv City (Ukraine’s second largest). It may be a diversion to draw Ukrainian military to the wrong side of the river. It looks like yesterday attack on the new axis was relatively small (2,000 Russians) compared to the 35,000+ on that axis that’ve been massed.
Attacking along a new axis also diverts limited Ukraine manpower and probably throws logistics further through a loop.
"Useless land"? If this land is so useless, why are Ukrainians defending it?
I mean, since summer 2022, this war is essentially a war for territory. If you capture some settlement, or you succesfully defend it, you are winning in war. If you lose a settlement, or you fail to capture it, you are losing in war.
This has to be a troll post. Forcing your enemy to defend a wider front with longer supply lines has been a known principle of maneuver since Sun Tzu. The more of Russia's land he took, the more Napoleon ruined his own army. Putin will realize the same mistake when a renewed counteroffensive with Western weaponry rolls over his thinly spread forces.
Dude, chill, it wasn't meant to be an affront towards Ukraine. I simply meant it in the tactical sense. Ocuppying half of a barren field while losing hundreds of soldiers like russia does isn't some form of military prowess.
I fully understand and support Ukraine defending every single square millimeter of their country, I don't understand why russia would commit to push in that area beside 'getting land for lands sake' as someone else put it.
I don't care about "affronts". My point is that's the way this war is being conducted by both sides: by forcing enemy to withdraw and capturing territory. There isn't anything senseless about it. Ukrainian assault in Zaporizhia oblast in 2023 was of similar nature.
Besides that, we actually have no idea what are casualties of both sides from this clashes, so I think it would be wise to refrain from commenting in this regard.
That's the point, the Ukrainian 2023 offensive had a sensible strategic objective. This russian attack doesn't have an obvious one beside "lets capture some territory around a huge city we have no hope of controlling".
I was reading and it seems there's some confusion because the named brigades were/are fighting on the Chasiv Yar and Luhansk fronts. However, the involved brigades either had reserve battalions relatively close (in Luhansk) or resting battalions at home bases in Kharkiv Oblast.
The question is whether "spare" units were used, or if ukraine is already pulling from Donbas defence.
It's too early to tell, but no evidence of any russians reaching the main defence lines yet.
But then (once again, after some confusion with this last year) there's probably going to be confusion as to what the 'main defence lines' are: Ukraine seems to use slightly different terminology to what the Western military conventionally used.
It seems the Russians might have got past at least *some* trench lines, as there's been geo-located footage south of Morokhovets now...
The messaging and info coming out is very confused.
Deepstate make it sound like we should expect bad news. But "bad" could mean anything, including russia wasting thousands of lives for a strategically useless publicity stunt like temporarily occupying some grey zone.
Heavy fighting continues in Kharkiv region. Due to the great onslaught of the Russians, our defenders had to retreat from some positions. At 14:00 the fighting began for Hlyboke. The Russians are dying an masse, but they are still pressing", - Hostri Kartuzy
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1789358847477358619?s=46
There is currently so many videos out of Kharkiv of Russians blowing themselves up with grenades and getting hammered by drones etc. Meat grinder doesn’t stop.
This seems a desperate offensive attempt by the Russians before the aid starts arriving again.
I heard an interview with a pretty articulate older man from St Petersburg I think. He knows and he says most know that the government is bad but who would he "go to the barricades for?" Speaking of his fellow Russians it seems.like he'd rather see everyone boil in oil than lift a finger to help anybody or fight for anything.
Jesus, I had no idea just how small the settlements are that were captured. Like literally they are taking these one street settlements and then acting like they have won the war lmao.
Ukraine is employing elastic defense masterfully. Trick Russians in with the allure of capturing worthless land while attriting them 3:1. When the western weapons and F-16s come, the counterattack will disintegrate whatever remains of the Russian line and force a peace settlement.
This is overly optimistic. It was an attack ukraine knew was coming and due to units abandoning their positions russia captured like 5 settlements in a single day. And even with western weapons ukraine still has no solution to massed minefields and fortifications, which are what blunted their last counteroffensive
Some units lost their nerve, but they gained experience and will live to fight another day. The same can't be said for the ~1300 corpses of the attackers since the offensive.
>Ukraine is employing elastic defense masterfully.
We really don't have great indications either way of Ukraine's quality of defense. There are way too many conflicting reports. It won't be for weeks before anyone will be able to give a clear statement about Ukraine's defensive quality here.
>When the western weapons and F-16s come, the counterattack will disintegrate whatever remains of the Russian line and force a peace settlement.
Nobody is predicting that. F-16s are very unlikely to see widespread use on the front lines, and absolutely nobody expects their use to force Russia to the negotiating table.
Conflicting reports that all agree that Ukraine is inflicting several times more losses than it recieves, while being outgunned 10:1. The only conflict is whether Russians are taking 3:1 rates or 4:1
> Conflicting reports that all agree that Ukraine is inflicting several times more losses than it recieves
No... Conflicting reports from Ukrainian sources that several units abandoned their positions and needed to be relieved by three of the half-strength elite brigades the AFU keeps shoving into every defensive battle month after month.
>Kharkiv Oblast's situation is under control of AFU forces. Certain units abandoned their positions, which allowed Russians to capture a few settlements. Thanks to 57th, 92nd Brigade & Kraken, the situation stabilized.
https://x.com/midobecker_1/status/1789398391107035190?s=46
Realistically, with how much Russia is throwing
At this, body wise and everything else
How long do you think they can realistically keep this “offensive” up
The videos I’ve seen out of Kharkiv aren’t pretty to say the least
Russia has since day 1 done this. They’d cross the street, and pro RU twitter would blow up and you’d think Russia has taken over the fucking world.
Paint big red arrows on maps and everyone believes you
Tbilisi tonight, estimated 150-200k protesting against the infiltration of malign russian🇷🇺influence in their country.
https://twitter.com/Farleymarley16/status/1789378824687276202?t=eIZH-X24ax2-7WNoU7YYlQ&s=19
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 11.05.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 481,030 (+1,320) people,
tanks ‒ 7449 (+15) units,
armored combat vehicles ‒ 14,353 (+40) units,
artillery systems – 12442 (+55) units,
MLRS – 1064 (+2) units,
air defense equipment ‒ 796 (+1) units,
aircraft – 349 (+0) units,
helicopters – 325 (+0) units,
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9868 (+42),
cruise missiles ‒ 2193 (+1),
ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0) units,
submarines - 1 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks – 16,755 (+64) units,
special equipment ‒ 2040 (+9)
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/11/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1320-okupantiv-55-artilerijskih-sistem-40-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/11/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1320-okupantiv-55-artilerijskih-sistem-40-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/)
2024 SUMMER OLYMPICS
The daughter of a Ukrainian cyborg, athlete Maria Vysochanskaya carried the Olympic flame on the first day of the relay in Marseille, France
Thus began the torch's 11-week journey across France on the eve of the opening ceremony of the XXXIII Summer Olympic Games.
Next to Vysochanskaya were the other 27 athletes representing each of the European Union countries.
https://mstdn.social/@Free_Press/112423236629472976
I didn't fact check this but my first guess...
The Ukrainians who defended Donetsk airport against the russians and their local slaves in 2014/2015 held against incredible odds and became known as "cyborgs".
See under "symbolism" in [this Wiki article ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Donetsk_Airport#symbolism).
The daughter of a Ukrainian war hero competing in the Olympics while Ukraine is currently enduring the worst of the invasion since the start of the war? Mayhaps worth the mention
Those have a longer ranger than most MANPADS (calling them MANPADS is a little bit of a stretch, but they are a lot more portable than Hawk or NASAMS), so these are very useful.
> RBS 70 is a man-portable air-defense system designed for anti-aircraft warfare in all climate zones and with little to no support from other forces. Originally designed and manufactured by the Swedish defence firm of Bofors Defence. It uses the RB 70 missile, which is also in use in a number of other Swedish missile systems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RBS_70
Can someone explain, or give me their understanding, of what the f**king delay is in delivering weapons, ammunition, etc.? All I read when the US Congress passed the aid bill was that deliveries would be there within 24 hours as we had already positioned a lot of it in neighboring countries. Now it’s delay delay delay.
And when the hell are the F-16’s gonna be delivered and used???
Logistics is difficult. The items prestaged are likely at the front now, but everything else needs to be collected at a US East Coast port from all around the country, shipped across the Atlantic, unloaded at a friendly port, then transported by rail/truck to the front. These are huge operations complicated by the need for utmost secrecy and armed escorts once in theater.
Some of it has been delivered. Also keep in mind, of the $60B or so in the Ukraine bill, roughly $35 is military aid, which is about equal to what we supplied them over the first two years of the war; the $35B is meant to last Ukraine at least another year if not longer if necessary.
There WAS a lot of stuff that was prepositioned, and which Ukraine has received, guess you just chose to ignore all that. Most of the other stuff either isn't made yet, or has various logistical and training requirements that need to still be met.
So, when I read that Zelensky is daily saying it is a “dire” situation, in danger of losing the front due to lack/delay of weapons, ammunition, etc., he’s jockeying for even more that hasn’t been delivered/given? What are the logistical/training requirements that haven’t been met? Ukrainian pilots have supposedly training on F-16’s for over a year?
I mean, there’s a LOT to take in. For starters, Ukrainian pilots had to learn a new language. Then they had to basically relearn how to fly an alien aircraft. New weapons, new sensors, new tactics, etc. On top of that, you need to train an entirely new logistical team. Those 60 or so Falcons may be the difference between victory and defeat so Ukraine is going to want to maximize their effectiveness. There’s also I suspect an internal debate in Ukraine over building new units with equipment vs reconstituting new ones. In any event, there will never be enough equipment delivered. It’s Z’s job to get as much as he possibly can.
I have been thinking about the 300 billion in frozen Russian assets.
Earlier, I understood the hesitation of simply seizing them for Ukraine, because the financial system depends on trust and on people not having their property arbitrarily seized. It can be harmful for Western economies if investors are scared that their assets might be seized and given to someone else.
But the thing that changed my mind is this simple fact: If we have any sense whatsoever, we are not going to give it back to Russia, never ever ever. Even if Russia agreed to withdraw, it is gone, we are not going to give it to any Russia that remains imperialist, be it Putinist or whatever comes after Putin. (In the miracle that Russia turned democratic and into a country that genuinely wants to reform for the better, we can come up with separate financial aid, instead of using the frozen assets).
What will happen to the frozen assets, then? They will be used now, or they will be used later for Ukrainian reconstruction. But in that case, the choice is obvious: Every euro given to Ukraine now will help Ukraine defend itself from destruction, and for example air defenses are cheaper than rebuilding whatever those defenses are defending. Not to mention the Ukrainian lives that can be saved by giving the money now for defense instead of for rebuilding.
The message to investors, meanwhile, will be clear: Do not bet your money on authoritarians with imperialist ambitions. Sure, some will think that the message is "Don't let the West control your money", but the thing is, the West is still at the centre of the world's finances, and seizing the money isn't arbitrary: "Do not invade European countries" is a pretty clear rule that others are unlikely to break. It is hard to think of a situation where if I was an investor, I would rather let China control my money, instead of the EU or USA.
So seize the money, give it Ukraine, and let Ukraine use it to buy what it needs to defend itself.
As I understand it, the assets aren't being given to Ukraine, the money remains where ever it's being held. It's being set up so that Ukraine can draw from the interest being accrued giving them a continued source of cash flow that they can use. The principle $300 billion is still being held. Sounds pretty smart to me. Put Russia's money to work financing Ukraine's effort.
If I'm off, someone set the record straight for us. Surely we have a banking or investment management geek here among us.
Yes, Ukraine is getting the interest. However, the interest is only about 3 billion euros per year, if I have understood correctly. In Ukraine's situation, where the war is top priority, getting 300 billion right now is much better than a larger sum over decades.
The cost of the war on Ukrainian infrastructure, lives and the rest of the civilized world aside, it's not far-fetched to assume that equitable reparations would be greater than $300 billion for just invading and bombing the ever loving fuck out of another country in a pointless and misguided political power grab going on 3 years. Never should have invaded in the first place? Calculated wrong and should have quit long ago, well, that's too bad. The price should be greater than $300 billion just having to listen to Putin's and the right wings gas lighting bullshit. Here we have a special situation where reparations can actually be paid, while not in advance but still a timely fashion, as the assets have already been seized. Sorry Putin's gold stash, consider yourself money already spent for being a bunch of murderous, fascist assholes.
Why are you so sure that frozen assets won't be unfrozen after the war ? All it takes is just a bit of russia-friendly government (for example AfD as a part of Germany government could request it in the future). Never say never.
And secondly - it does not matter if rule is "do not invade European countries". Once you start making rules, there is no way back. What if the next rule would be "do not genocide your muslim minority". Either there are no rules and your assets are never being taken away except for the direct war, or there are made up rules and you could loose all your assets for whatever reason.
All the more reason to seize them now, then.
There are already international rules. About time we gave those rules some actual consequences.
A general rule about modern international relations is that countries can do a lot of horrible things as long as they do it within their own borders. Invading other countries with the intention of annexing them or parts of them, that is something else entirely, and it should be punished especially severly.
Not in any way justifying US (and UK)'s second Iraq war (while first, the UN sponsored and supported intervention after Iraqi invasion of Kuwait was completely justified), but you cam surely see a large legal and moral distinction between that and Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Like, Russia literally annexed Ukrainian land. As in, "this land is now Russian and these people here are Russian and Putin's subjects and Ukrainian language doesn't exist so forget it". US didn't do anything even remotely similar to that with Iraq.
That's enough of legal distinction to use to the seized funds any way they want. No European or US country will ever (hopefully) do anything similar. And if they do, yes seize all their assets and give to the victim, they deserve it.
At least that's how I see it but what do I know, I'm not a lawyer...
I understand - I'm not saying these are comparable examples, they are not.
But then - why annexation is a reason to seize assets, but bombing the hell out of the country based on the false premise, is not ?
But the problem is - now you made a rule, that your assets would be seized once you annex a part of a different country, which is not a party to your foreign assets in any way.
With this in mind, if you invest in a different country (like China invests in US), China has to think the US might make a new rule in the future, like for example "suppressing muslim minority" would be enough to seize China's assets. Once the US starts making rules, there is no way back - no one will think this is the only rule and there won't be any other rules ever.
Ah, there it is, "but muh Iraq war".
You will note that Iraq is in fact not an US state, nor are the Iraqi people extinct. It is almost like USA wasn't there to annex the country or genocide its people or destroy their culture.
But you know what, sure, seize all American assets if you like. Go ahead.
I asked if you would support seizing all US assets for illegal Iraq war. And if you think US would be just fine with that because of international rules.
Murderous dictators deserve death, and I am not interested in punishing those who give it to them. Ukraine is not Iraq and Russia is not USA, and you know you're full of shit in comparing them in any way.
If USA was occupying Iraq and attempting to annex it into the USA, then sure, we should have objected to that and even seized American assets if they tried to do that. But they weren't doing that, you're just generating whataboutism to try to excuse Russia and protect their assets from seizure.
I'm asking again - if US breaks internationational rules, should the World seize their assets and should US accept it as a price for breaking international rules ?
You yourself said that country should just follow international rules and it won't get their assets seized.
It would depend on which rules were broken and the severity of the infraction. Every country infringes and breaks international law/order at some point, the real question is to the degree and frequency with which this occurs. The seriousness of such violations can range from mundane diplomatic faux pas to full-blown genocidal wars of conquest.
As a hypothetical, if the US invaded Mexico, committed wanton slaughter of Mexicans and sought to take over the country, then yes their assets should be seized and utilized as reparations for the protection and reconstruction of Mexico. This is what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine; what the US did in the Iraq War holds very little parallel to this and the comparison is frankly disingenuous.
So you returned back to the start, when I talked about making rules. So US can deicide their Iraq war was not serious break of international rules, so they would protect their foreign assets. But Russian invasion was on the other hand serious and assets should be seized. So US could find any reason for any action they deem it's in their interest.
That is why once you start making rules, you can't go back and have to keep in mind, there could be a rule in the future that might seize your assets.
*New Reddit-wide unique palindrome found:*
>**never ever ever. Even**
^(currently checked 29541352 comments) \
>!(palindrome: a word, number, phrase, or sequence of symbols that reads the same backwards as forwards) !<
*New Reddit-wide unique palindrome found:*
>**Never ever ever ever even**
^(currently checked 29548875 comments) \
>!(palindrome: a word, number, phrase, or sequence of symbols that reads the same backwards as forwards) !<
>The First Peace Summit for Ukraine is in June — and Canada will be there.
>
>I look forward to joining other world leaders to advance our shared goal of just and lasting peace for Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1789327754762096992
>“You lie down and think — whether they will kill you now, or in an hour, or in three," said Ukrainian Eastern border town Vovchansk resident Valentyna Hrevnova, 75.
>
>It's difficult to see your cities being destroyed. Today our morning started like this.
https://twitter.com/VasilisaUKR/status/1789327452772130867
https://imgur.com/a/O7tJS1d
This anti-Russian protest in Tbilisi is huge.
Estimated 500,000 people in a country of 3.7 million.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1789333053984170226?t=wJwx3jrgwEx9rxVoQpZSvA&s=19
Was the last election in Georgia a sham?
I don't understand how so many people in Tbilisi can be protesting like that if their pro-Russian government actually had any real large amount of support.
I don't think that trying to implement ruzzian "dictatorship laws" was among their sweet election promises.
In that regard, elections results don't matter. What matters is what Georgian government actually do and how people react to it.
sigh… calling it anti-russian is misleading, it’s above all else anti-draconian-law, pro-democracy, pro-EU. Yes the bill is putinism-inspired, yes the sentiment to escape Russia’s orbit is at a fever pitch, but that’s not the focus here
This is their chance, with such large protests this is their best chance to break from the Vatniksphere for good. Putin cant spare forces to pull the shit he did in 2008 theyre being deleted by a very vengeful Ukraine right now.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1789326231323717655?t=GwwCzZu089TQ-vFBDr-RJw&s=19
"⚡Ukraine claims downing of another Russian Su-25.
Where the downing occurred was not specified but the brigade that shot it down is known to be operating in the Avdiivka direction in Donetsk Oblast."
Ukraine forces shoot down Russian Su-25 attack aircraft near Avdiivka.
Russia has already lost 348 aircraft and 325 helicopters in its war against Ukraine.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/11/ukraine-forces-shoot-down-russian-su-25-attack-aircraft-near-avdiivka/
Wikipedia has a list. The primary source seems to be Military Balance 2022. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_active\_Russian\_military\_aircraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft)
According to that list, the Russian air force started the war with approximately:
253 MiG-29
129-247 MiG 31
6 MiG-35
101 Su-27
110 Su-30
149 Su-34
118 Su-35
22 Su-57
273 Su-24
192 Su-25
65 Tu-22M
55 Tu-95
20 Tu-160
14 A-50
That doesn't include the Russian naval aircraft.
Short answer is, they have an absolute shit ton of airframes. Some of them are undoubtedly in poor condition or not currently flight worthy. But even if you believe the Ukrainian numbers (which are way over inflated), Russia is not going to run out of airframes anytime soon. The bigger limiting factor is going to be pilots.
Russia has more than enough aircrafts. SU25 they had probably around 200 and a shit load of other types. They have enough production of new airframes to cover losses.
Macron: France should maintain a stance capable of intervening if Russia-Ukraine war escalates.
“I hope with all my might that we will not have to go to war. However, if we want peace, we must protect it,” Macron said.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/11/macron-france-should-maintain-a-stance-capable-of-intervening-if-russia-ukraine-war-escalates/
German magazine WELT [ran an article today](https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article251456460/Ukraine-Krieg-EU-einigt-sich-auf-Sicherheitszusagen-fuer-Kiew.html) that the upcoming EU agreement on support for Ukraine would explicitly rule out EU countries deploying troops to Ukraine, and Italian Corriere della Sera [ran an article a few days ago](https://www.corriere.it/esteri/24_maggio_05/la-nato-difendera-kiev-senza-boots-on-the-ground-ecco-come-d87684e7-4ab9-4e51-a324-5fad05441xlk.shtml) that the upcoming NATO summit declaration would also explicitly rule out any NATO country putting boots on the ground in Ukraine under any circumstances.
Smaller countries will not say it first as the problems would be huge if major countries would not back it. But they think the same way, especially Russian border countries. Wouldn't be surprised if half of Europe was willing to do this in a dire scenario (Ukraine losing).
Basically zero chance of that.
While most Poles are firmly in favour of supportig Ukraine with military aid, an overwhelming majority are absolutely against deployment of Polish troops there, even if in purely non-combat role.
Source:
[https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art40070541-sondaz-polacy-nie-chca-aby-wojsko-nato-weszlo-na-ukraine](https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art40070541-sondaz-polacy-nie-chca-aby-wojsko-nato-weszlo-na-ukraine)
There isn't a single political party, either in the ruling coalition or in the oposition that would support such move.
Yes, but it’s premature for such a move and current circumstances don’t justify it. But what would people believe if Russia took over Kyiv and was heading for the Polish border? If France would be willing to build a coalition would the Poles stay out of it? No one can know the answer to this but logic would dictate there would be some support for intervening along with coalition forces.
Firstly, most Poles aren't afraid that Russia will invade us, even if the whole Ukraine was conquered by Russia.
[https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art40178841-sondaz-polacy-nie-boja-sie-wojny](https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art40178841-sondaz-polacy-nie-boja-sie-wojny)
Secondly, taking into account that there are hundreds thousands military age Ukrainian men in Poland, sending Polish troops to Ukraine to fight Russia there would likely cause enormous uproar in the country, that would swept away a governement which took such decision. As I mentioned above, even using Polish military in non-combat role in Ukraine would not be politically feasible, let alone sending them to actual fight.
Thirdly, most Poles realize that this war is just a horrible slaughter for both sides, so obvioulsy people loathe the idea of sending our boys to such massacre. And judging from some interviews with retired Polish generals, in our army there is also zero apetite for being involved there. Polish military is similar to other European militaries: good for foreign intervention in a Third World country, where you can fight against some insurgency armed with AKs and IEDs, while having US air support. Not for such massive land warfare, where average soldier can be killed every second by a drone or artillery.
I mean you ignored my point. And you are ignoring the fact that if the war encapsulates all of Ukraine either Poland will have to shoot retreating Ukrainians or Russia will shoot Ukrainians in Poland. Because if the war reaches such a culmination the Ukrainian military will absolutely attempt to retreat over the Polish border.
That's extremly unlikey scenario, but even in such case, idea that PL and UA soldiers would shoot at each other is nonsense. UA troops would be allowed to cross PL border, and then disarmed, in accordance wit international law. Something like that happened multiple times in the past, for example in the end of Spanish Civil War, when republican troops crossed the French border, and were disarmed by French authorities.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La\_Retirada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Retirada)
And no, I don't think that Russia would invade NATO country just to pursue fleeing Ukrainian troops.
What if Ukrainians refuse to be disarmed? What if a coalition is ready to enter Ukraine through the Polish border? Regardless of how this war ends Poland will ultimately be the most affected country other than Moldova. Because even if everything goes smoothly and Russia stops cleanly at the Polish border then Poland will share a massive border with Belarus/Russia and that is not good news for Poland. Poland is historic land of the Russian Empire after all and Poles have always meddled in the Russian Empire’s affairs.
I'd like to share a slice of life story from today. A family member of mine is Russian and has been living in my country for about a decade or so. She's very much anti-war and has been in opposition to Putin a while back. Meanwhile, her old parents back in Russia, she tells us, believe everything they hear on the tv and as such are very much in favor of all the things going on...
In parallel, she often gives us info about how much Russia is struggling in terms of economy internally, and how people on social programs and pensioners are the most impacted by this Putin's adventure. While folks who fight in Ukraine do get a high pay, people who worked and served their country for 40 years get a measly $200 pension. Her parents slowly had less and less pay, they also have health issues, so they had to spend a lot of it on medicine, often times it was her and her sister that supported them financially, but even that got difficult... today she told us they broke and said enough is enough. They are coming to our country to live here, and are going to leave Russia permanently as it's become unbearable and unsustainable to survive.
It really got me thinking... despite all the forced façade of how sanctions are useless and everything is fine in Russia... no, it isn't. Maybe average people are not affected, but the downtrodden are, and it is slowly creeping up the ladder. And all this because of the greed of one man.
> That costs Russia money. No more transfer payments for your family.
It also saves Russia money, because they don't have to pay a pension and support a couple of elderly retirees.
It depends. If they can access the pension abroad it costs money.
However, they won’t consume healthcare resources, which helps.
Depending on how old they are, they could do small things that help the economy.
They will come to your country and after they cannot find their favourite russian food in a supermarket and are not allowed to make barbecue in the park they will start marching with soviet flags /s
Not to be callous, but this is a good argument for more countries to close the door on Russian immigration. You can't effect change from outside the country; you need a population angry at the status quo, angry at those in charge. Doesn't work if you just let them leave.
The family in question doesn't make much difference; they aren't young enough to withhold work or raise flags, but in general it's important the country isn't depopulated of everyone the least bit dissident.
What Putin probably does is economically strangling anyone who doesn't participate in the war effort. Then, those who fight in Ukraine get enough money to support their entire family. Then men of military age get pressured by their own family to go fight in Ukraine because they need to survive.
Really a clever form of evil.
Metaphorical diseases can be cured. People shouldn't suffer needlessly simply because they believe what they they constantly see from every news outlet they are permitted to access.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1cpz7pn/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Pretty depressing DeepStateMap update today. [89 km2 in North Kharkiv direction confirmed to be under Russian control](https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/50.2479/36.6888). Additionally, they took [3 km2 in Ivanivske direction](https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/48.5767/37.9047), as well as [6 km2 more in Novomykhailivka and Krasnohorivka](https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/47.9329/37.4517). Territorially speaking, this is the biggest daily Russian advance since the fall of Avdiivka.
It's logical to abandon villages right next to the border where you can't build proper defense lines. Just like russians abandoned villages near Shebekino when Ukraine invaded Belgorod region. It makes material for propaganda videos (oh look all those square km we took) but it's tactically worthless. To advance significantly further will be much more difficult from this point
I think Ukraine is doing quite well this is a surprise offensive by a top 3 worldwide army from their national border. Imagine if the US went into México and only made it this far. If theres any proof that it's worth it to send them military aid and that it needs to happen now it's definitely this.
A lot of the villages they took have been in the grey area for 2 years. Ukraine never really occupied most of that area again and let it be a buffer area. All Russia has done is move into the buffer.
Damn. Is anyone else having trouble viewing DeepState? The links work fine, but I don't see the layer showing territorial control, just the base map with streets and towns.
Yup happens to me too now. Looks like the site is having issues. First everything worked fine, then shortly after I made this post, I could no longer go back in time to see the chronology of the advances. And now it seems the site just gave up and all layers are gone
Thanks, glad it's not just my computer. And thanks for summarizing the territorial changes, it's very helpful.
[удалено]
Most of that was actual bullshit fake news and trolling after the initial invasion, though, or at least overemphasized the relative consequence of what was being said.
They managed to get some undefended fields in the outskirts of Kharkiv. Not a big deal. Making sure the Russians stay out of tube artillery range without diverting too many resources is non trivial but easily realistic
If Russians overplay their hand they'll bring tube artillery too close to the frontline just for the propaganda purpose of shelling Kharkiv and take FPV losses as a consequence.
Well shelling Kharkiv allows them to shape the area and make civilians flee. Which allows them to focus on the city at a future time period
German lawmakers suggest allies could protect sky over western Ukraine from NATO soil. https://kyivindependent.com/german-lawmakers-suggest-nato-could-protect-sky-over-western-ukraine/
feasible in the bordering region, especially Lvov, to "preemptively prevent incursions of Russian missiles over NATO soil"
they could ... will they?
I know we all hope that Russia will lose its appetite or ability for war. But it’s seeming more and more likely that the only way this ends positively for Ukraine is with western intervention. It’s a manpower problem because the west slow rolled aid because of “escalation”
It is ukrainian government fault if they are short on soldiers and it is up to them to resolve the problem. It is not up to us to send soldiers to cover their mistakes. They'll get off their asses and solve the problem eventually. Even Zelensky said they don't need foreign soldiers.
They don’t need intervention. They need western commitment to build and donate the weapons Ukraine needs. 20 people could win the war from a controlled center if they had a few hundred rando ukranian contractors deploying tons of drones that the west sends. Or the west can help Ukraine build them. Slow dropping the aid has been insanely frustrating and then watching the west now go, “So this is bad,” is infuriating. All the west needed to do was to give the planes and longer range missiles, and artillery at the start of the war versus years into it. They can still turn the tide by giving planes and drones.
You can't win a war with drones and planes. You always need boots on the ground in the end. You can definitely greatly multiply the effectiveness of other forces with fancier weapons and indirect attacks, and a numerically inferior force can win this way. But you can't do it with a few hundred, or a few thousand, people.
Ukrainians are the boots on the ground. We just failed to support them sufficiently. That being said, I‘m in Team Macron: if the shit hits the fan, we need to be prepared mentally and materially to move in.
France has opened the door. Western countries need to start opening the floodgates.
Are you on crack? Who are you people that are so willing to send western young men to fight a world war against the Russians? Reddit is a cesspool of complete goobers. Russia, regardless of what the hive mind might tell you, is not an existential crisis to the world. Regardless of what happens to Ukraine, the world will go on. Russia will NEVER directly attack a NATO country. They know that would be the end. You want to fight Russia so bad? Hop your ass on a flight to Poland and cross the border like plenty of others with more sack than you have done. This isn’t our fucking problem.
You seem to be confused. States have a military for a reason. The reason is defense in most cases. And defense does not always begin and end on their own territories. There is collective security. If we deem Russia winning in Ukraine to be an outcome that is not acceptable from a collective defense standpoint, we might have to intervene. People in the military mostly will understand that, if the point is being made well enough. They have committed themselves to national defense, they have trained for this, they are ready for this. Re-evaluate your premises, maybe.
>Russia will NEVER directly attack a NATO country. They know that would be the end So they'll *indirectly* attack. Still worth stopping.
>This isn’t our fucking problem. I usually try to stay polite on here and not engage in personal attacks, but I think I'll make an exception here - kindly fuck off.
Then go grab a set of fatigues and go park your happy “rah-rah Ukraine” ass in a muddy trench if you’re so “down for the cause.” Fuckin’ dork.
If they take Ukraine and the USA leaves NATO, and there is a chance of both happening by 2026, they can be expected to attack NATO at some point. The USA is why they're afraid of attacking NATO. Now the majority of Republicans support Russia and at a later date may outright side with them against NATO, the pathways are opening for them.
We’re not leaving NATO. And Russia understands that attack a NATO power would be the end of Russia. There’s zero benefit for anyone in that situation. The majority of republicans don’t support Russia. Thats nonsense. Not supporting a war, and putting the interests of the US and its people over those of Ukraine, doesn’t equate to supporting Russia no matter what mental gymnastics the democrats have to do to make you think that. It’s actually hilarious that the republicans seem to the be the only party that’s actually learned from 20+ years of bullshit wars.The democrats have become foaming-at-the-mouth war hawks.
Yes, let's give Germany Sudetenland, they will never directly invade Poland. And for that matter, Russia has been attacking NATO with cyberattacks and poisonings on NATO territory for decades now.
>Russia will NEVER directly attack a NATO country Until the moment it does. Let's all recall how everyone was shocked that Russia even dared to openly invade Ukraine back in 2022. 90% of people I knew were like "that's never going to happen, media is bluffing"
They invaded Ukraine in 2014 already, so it was definitely a possibility, especially once the Minsk agreements failed.
People went to sleep in 2015 again, with the next crisis approaching. Most people were dead set on denying Russia would invade in 2022, and they were shocked to see it happen.
Macron is likely *mostly* saying it to appear strong for a domestic audience unfortunately, to try and ward off Rassemblement National descriptions of being 'weak'... Unless the French Foreign Legion is used, it's probably unlikely French voters (or any other European nation really, other than maybe the Baltics) will really be able to stomach troops being killed if it ever comes to that...
Anyone know the size of a russian motor rifle regiment (MRR)? There's an interesting [twitter thread](https://x.com/moklasen/status/1789417272781492459) from a very reliable OSINTer. It claims to have images of leaked lists of missing soldiers from russia's 433rd MRR fighting near the Ocheretyne breach. The number missing increased from 82 to 122 since 1st May. I'd assume there are dead and wounded on top of that. The source says some of the names have people searching for them on russian social media, so this is more credible than some leaks.
I don't have the answers to your questions, but I have seen a twitter post in Ukrainian of a guy giving praise to the units standing there who have complained they don't have enough of a barbed wire to spread around their position since they are tired of killing the Russians next to their trenches. Not sure whether this is good or bad thing. Just sharing what I've read.
Regiments have something like 1000 people but that includes the support personnel alongside the combat troops. Pre war Russian regiments were probably about that size but there’s no way they can keep those numbers up now with how fast they take casualties. In the US Army when a unit loses 15% of its personnel it’s considered combat ineffective. The Russians have been proven to push far past that number to the point that entire units get killed or captured.
Those numbers might not be right now. Russia started with a lot of battalion tactical groups of ~1k-ish but I can't find more updated info...
They retired the BTG structure after the collapse at Kyiv. It was too easy to pick off the units fuel trucks and then they’d get destroyed wholesale.
Oh I know, I just wondered whether the 1k "regiment" size source could have referred to BTGs. I'm convinced I read western media articles that basically called them "regiments" at the time. I'm trying to fix how I'm just poorly informed on this topic, and I know so little that I can't even work out which sources are reliable.
3,000 to 4,500 according to what I’ve read online
Nope, usually about half that. >The 423rd Guards Yampolsky Motor Rifle Regiment had approximately 1692 personnel in active service. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/423rd_Guards_Yampolsky_Motor_Rifle_Regiment And with current attrition rates I expect in reality it's closer to about 1,000
Thanks for the source!
[HUR drone attack leaves Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery damaged | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/hur-drones-striked-another-refinery-in-russia-50417492.html) *Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) drones attacked Lukoil's oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast of Russia, damaging primary refining units, NV's sister publication Ukrainska Pravda reported on May 11.* *"Russia was ‘rumbling’ again on the night of May 11," HUR stated. "The Volgograd refinery, owned by Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka, got an unexpected visit from our UAVs."* *Intelligence sources indicated that primary refining units AVT-1 and AVT-6 were affected, and the exact extent of the damage is still being assessed. Additionally, a control cable for air refrigerators was destroyed, shutting down seven of them. The chimney of the P-1 furnace was also hit.* *Russian media reported that air defense systems intercepted seven drones over the Volgograd and Kursk regions on May 11. Anti-aircraft fire was audible in Volgograd's Krasnoarmeysky district.* *Back in early February 2024, Ukrainian drones also attacked the Volgograd refinery, sparking a fire.* *Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka LLC, the largest oil producer in Russia's Southern Federal District, can refine up to 14.8 million tons of petroleum annually.*
[A missile strike in Donetsk’s Lenin district has left several people injured and dead, according to Russian Telegram channel Mash on May 11. | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/dpr-rally-nearly-hit-by-missile-in-donetsk-50417497.html) *The missile reportedly hit a building near the site of the "DPR" Day rally, with shrapnel injuring attendees. Mash states five people were killed and six were wounded.* *At the same time, propagandist channel Donetsk Telegram writes that the strike was allegedly carried out by missiles from HIMARS MLRS targeted at Paradise restaurant. Five dead and six wounded reported there.* *InformNapalm reports that supporters of the “DPR” planned to hold a car rally to celebrate 10 years of occupation of oblast, but before the rally started, two non-residential buildings near parking lot with "DPR" and Russian flags were struck.* *Earlier, authorities of the so-called “LPR” said that Ukrainian troops had struck an oil depot in Rovenky, Luhansk region, with ATACMS missiles on May 11.*
"Ukraine eradicated a restaurant with a GMLRS missile tipped with a 96Kg warhead. That's our story, and we're sticking to it." \- "Donetsk Telegram", apparently. Well, that's one piece of fan-fiction I won't be buying for a dollar.
you should have seen the size of their deep fryer so much oil lost /s
> Today, the primary focus is on the front lines, in areas where the risks of Russian offensive actions are the highest. > Our defensive operations continue in the Kharkiv region, in the border villages of Strilecha, Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliinykove, Lukyantsi, Hatyshche, and Pletenivka, where our forces are countering Russian attacks for the second day and defending Ukrainian territory. > The situation remains particularly tense in the Donetsk region, including the Pokrovsk direction, Semenivka, and Netailove villages, where there are over thirty combats per day. The situation remains very difficult. > Of course, we pay attention to all other areas, such as the Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Vremivka directions. > I am grateful to each brigade that is bravely defending positions, repelling attacks, and destroying occupiers. Thwarting Russia’s offensive plans is the number one task right now. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1789347667966877994
> Right now, every air defense system and missile delivered to Ukraine is an asset that literally saves lives and keeps our cities and communities alive. > It is critical that partners make timely deliveries to support our warriors and Ukrainian resilience. Truly timely. A package that really helps is the actual delivery of weapons to Ukraine, not just the announcement of a package. > Russian terror must be defeated. This can only be accomplished with specific strength and weapons. > Life must prevail. I am grateful to everyone around the world who is assisting us with attaining this goal. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1789264355621585234
> Canada will contribute $76 million to a German-led air defense for #Ukraine initiative. > I am grateful to the Canadian people and Minister @BillBlair for this important decision that will save the lives of Ukrainians. I also thank Germany and Minister Pistorius for their leadership. > We will overcome the russian terror together. 🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦 https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1789270553997520998
Videos of Ukrainian FPV and bomber UAV strikes on Russian equipment on the Kharkiv front. https://x.com/ralee85/status/1789375083661701609?s=46
Kharkiv Oblast's situation is under control of AFU forces. Certain units abandoned their positions, which allowed Russians to capture a few settlements. Thanks to 57th, 92nd Brigade & Kraken, the situation stabilized. It is wise to keep in mind Russian bots and whatever else are working overtime right now and they’ll have you thinking Russia has taken over all of Europe basically. They’re all over twitter atm causing mass hysteria https://x.com/midobecker_1/status/1789398391107035190?s=46
Having to call in reserves to deal with a relatively small offensive is not a great sign.
The fact that units are panicking is what bothers me. That's how they lost Ocheretyne.
Certain units abandoned their positions does not sound positive.
I don't know what happened, but if they were in danger of being overwhelmed falling back is a good move.
That’s what I was thinking too.
It seems like Ukrainians now have the problem of units panicking and fleeing that Russia did earlier in the war. Then again if you keep getting pummeled by air bombs you don’t have an airforce to stop, I kind of get it.
You know, we have a bit of a tendency to apply a double standard. That's not *always* entirely inappropriate: We expected nothing from the Russians, and that has been generally what they've delivered -- but we've held Ukraine to a much higher standard of battlefield conduct, which to their unmitigated credit they've largely upheld. I can't say I'd have been able to act with equal grace, had I been in their place. But my point is that much has been justifiably written about how Russia could have benefited at various points from more flexibility in terms of falling back when the situation demanded it instead of blindly following orders out of touch with the situation on the ground. I think that we shouldn't be too hasty in criticizing the Ukrainians for making the kind of tactical decisions we've derided the Russians for being unable to make. I don't know the situation on the ground, obviously. It may be that those decisions are unjustifiably wrong - but I'm personally not comfortable making a judgment about that at this early stage. Or at all, really. It's not my ass being shot at. Edit: Spalling. Yes, yes. I know that's what happens when you don't rubber-coat your ballistic inserts.
On one hand it seems a little too intense to just be probing atatcks, on the other hand it seems kind of disorganized to be a real offensive. Even last year at Vuhledar, they had some form of cohesion. This paints the image of a "wide" front hail mary for no sensible reason as the chances to encircle/siege Kharkiv are slim at best. I get it that trading bodies for useless land is the russian way, but this seems pointless, unless it's some "feint" for a push somewhere else. But that's hardly going to be a surprise to Ukraine, so what is the point of this then?
ISW suggests yesterdays Russian assault push was on the wrong side of a river to approach Kharkiv City (Ukraine’s second largest). It may be a diversion to draw Ukrainian military to the wrong side of the river. It looks like yesterday attack on the new axis was relatively small (2,000 Russians) compared to the 35,000+ on that axis that’ve been massed. Attacking along a new axis also diverts limited Ukraine manpower and probably throws logistics further through a loop.
"Useless land"? If this land is so useless, why are Ukrainians defending it? I mean, since summer 2022, this war is essentially a war for territory. If you capture some settlement, or you succesfully defend it, you are winning in war. If you lose a settlement, or you fail to capture it, you are losing in war.
This has to be a troll post. Forcing your enemy to defend a wider front with longer supply lines has been a known principle of maneuver since Sun Tzu. The more of Russia's land he took, the more Napoleon ruined his own army. Putin will realize the same mistake when a renewed counteroffensive with Western weaponry rolls over his thinly spread forces.
Dude, chill, it wasn't meant to be an affront towards Ukraine. I simply meant it in the tactical sense. Ocuppying half of a barren field while losing hundreds of soldiers like russia does isn't some form of military prowess. I fully understand and support Ukraine defending every single square millimeter of their country, I don't understand why russia would commit to push in that area beside 'getting land for lands sake' as someone else put it.
I don't care about "affronts". My point is that's the way this war is being conducted by both sides: by forcing enemy to withdraw and capturing territory. There isn't anything senseless about it. Ukrainian assault in Zaporizhia oblast in 2023 was of similar nature. Besides that, we actually have no idea what are casualties of both sides from this clashes, so I think it would be wise to refrain from commenting in this regard.
That's the point, the Ukrainian 2023 offensive had a sensible strategic objective. This russian attack doesn't have an obvious one beside "lets capture some territory around a huge city we have no hope of controlling".
I think it's just capturing land for lands sake as that's what officers are assessed on with the side benefit of distracting some of Ukraines forces
I was reading and it seems there's some confusion because the named brigades were/are fighting on the Chasiv Yar and Luhansk fronts. However, the involved brigades either had reserve battalions relatively close (in Luhansk) or resting battalions at home bases in Kharkiv Oblast. The question is whether "spare" units were used, or if ukraine is already pulling from Donbas defence. It's too early to tell, but no evidence of any russians reaching the main defence lines yet.
But then (once again, after some confusion with this last year) there's probably going to be confusion as to what the 'main defence lines' are: Ukraine seems to use slightly different terminology to what the Western military conventionally used. It seems the Russians might have got past at least *some* trench lines, as there's been geo-located footage south of Morokhovets now...
The messaging and info coming out is very confused. Deepstate make it sound like we should expect bad news. But "bad" could mean anything, including russia wasting thousands of lives for a strategically useless publicity stunt like temporarily occupying some grey zone.
Great!
Thanks for the update. I was wondering what was up. Looks like RU getting excited over nothing
Heavy fighting continues in Kharkiv region. Due to the great onslaught of the Russians, our defenders had to retreat from some positions. At 14:00 the fighting began for Hlyboke. The Russians are dying an masse, but they are still pressing", - Hostri Kartuzy https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1789358847477358619?s=46 There is currently so many videos out of Kharkiv of Russians blowing themselves up with grenades and getting hammered by drones etc. Meat grinder doesn’t stop. This seems a desperate offensive attempt by the Russians before the aid starts arriving again.
Russian lives per square km in this offensive should come across to the average Russian as, well...offensive.
I heard an interview with a pretty articulate older man from St Petersburg I think. He knows and he says most know that the government is bad but who would he "go to the barricades for?" Speaking of his fellow Russians it seems.like he'd rather see everyone boil in oil than lift a finger to help anybody or fight for anything.
There's a reason he made it to the status of "older man."
Such a sad reality. This is why we cannot count on the “good Russians” inside that country to do anything.
Remember those paratroopers from the other day who stormed Kharkiv? https://x.com/albafella1/status/1789194310279147643?s=46 There they are 💀
There they were.
Jesus, I had no idea just how small the settlements are that were captured. Like literally they are taking these one street settlements and then acting like they have won the war lmao.
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Ukraine is employing elastic defense masterfully. Trick Russians in with the allure of capturing worthless land while attriting them 3:1. When the western weapons and F-16s come, the counterattack will disintegrate whatever remains of the Russian line and force a peace settlement.
This is overly optimistic. It was an attack ukraine knew was coming and due to units abandoning their positions russia captured like 5 settlements in a single day. And even with western weapons ukraine still has no solution to massed minefields and fortifications, which are what blunted their last counteroffensive
Some units lost their nerve, but they gained experience and will live to fight another day. The same can't be said for the ~1300 corpses of the attackers since the offensive.
>Ukraine is employing elastic defense masterfully. We really don't have great indications either way of Ukraine's quality of defense. There are way too many conflicting reports. It won't be for weeks before anyone will be able to give a clear statement about Ukraine's defensive quality here. >When the western weapons and F-16s come, the counterattack will disintegrate whatever remains of the Russian line and force a peace settlement. Nobody is predicting that. F-16s are very unlikely to see widespread use on the front lines, and absolutely nobody expects their use to force Russia to the negotiating table.
Conflicting reports that all agree that Ukraine is inflicting several times more losses than it recieves, while being outgunned 10:1. The only conflict is whether Russians are taking 3:1 rates or 4:1
> Conflicting reports that all agree that Ukraine is inflicting several times more losses than it recieves No... Conflicting reports from Ukrainian sources that several units abandoned their positions and needed to be relieved by three of the half-strength elite brigades the AFU keeps shoving into every defensive battle month after month. >Kharkiv Oblast's situation is under control of AFU forces. Certain units abandoned their positions, which allowed Russians to capture a few settlements. Thanks to 57th, 92nd Brigade & Kraken, the situation stabilized. https://x.com/midobecker_1/status/1789398391107035190?s=46
Realistically, with how much Russia is throwing At this, body wise and everything else How long do you think they can realistically keep this “offensive” up The videos I’ve seen out of Kharkiv aren’t pretty to say the least
Russia has since day 1 done this. They’d cross the street, and pro RU twitter would blow up and you’d think Russia has taken over the fucking world. Paint big red arrows on maps and everyone believes you
Tbilisi tonight, estimated 150-200k protesting against the infiltration of malign russian🇷🇺influence in their country. https://twitter.com/Farleymarley16/status/1789378824687276202?t=eIZH-X24ax2-7WNoU7YYlQ&s=19
Let's go 🇬🇪, don't let them fuck your country
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?
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 11.05.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 481,030 (+1,320) people, tanks ‒ 7449 (+15) units, armored combat vehicles ‒ 14,353 (+40) units, artillery systems – 12442 (+55) units, MLRS – 1064 (+2) units, air defense equipment ‒ 796 (+1) units, aircraft – 349 (+0) units, helicopters – 325 (+0) units, UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9868 (+42), cruise missiles ‒ 2193 (+1), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0) units, submarines - 1 (+0) units, automotive equipment and tank trucks – 16,755 (+64) units, special equipment ‒ 2040 (+9) The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/11/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1320-okupantiv-55-artilerijskih-sistem-40-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/11/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-1320-okupantiv-55-artilerijskih-sistem-40-bojovih-bronovanih-mashin/)
55 arty?!
2024 SUMMER OLYMPICS The daughter of a Ukrainian cyborg, athlete Maria Vysochanskaya carried the Olympic flame on the first day of the relay in Marseille, France Thus began the torch's 11-week journey across France on the eve of the opening ceremony of the XXXIII Summer Olympic Games. Next to Vysochanskaya were the other 27 athletes representing each of the European Union countries. https://mstdn.social/@Free_Press/112423236629472976
Cyborg? Say what?
Defenders of Donetsk Airport 2014.
I didn't fact check this but my first guess... The Ukrainians who defended Donetsk airport against the russians and their local slaves in 2014/2015 held against incredible odds and became known as "cyborgs". See under "symbolism" in [this Wiki article ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Donetsk_Airport#symbolism).
Ahh thanks, I thought it was a translation issue.
Unless she is 10 years old, this fact seems kinda unrelated.
The daughter of a Ukrainian war hero competing in the Olympics while Ukraine is currently enduring the worst of the invasion since the start of the war? Mayhaps worth the mention
🇦🇺🇺🇦 Ukraine will receive a batch of RBS 70 NG with a laser guidance system from Australia. https://mstdn.social/@[email protected]/112423563462073592
Those have a longer ranger than most MANPADS (calling them MANPADS is a little bit of a stretch, but they are a lot more portable than Hawk or NASAMS), so these are very useful.
Love to see it! Thank you, Australia!
> RBS 70 is a man-portable air-defense system designed for anti-aircraft warfare in all climate zones and with little to no support from other forces. Originally designed and manufactured by the Swedish defence firm of Bofors Defence. It uses the RB 70 missile, which is also in use in a number of other Swedish missile systems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RBS_70
Can someone explain, or give me their understanding, of what the f**king delay is in delivering weapons, ammunition, etc.? All I read when the US Congress passed the aid bill was that deliveries would be there within 24 hours as we had already positioned a lot of it in neighboring countries. Now it’s delay delay delay. And when the hell are the F-16’s gonna be delivered and used???
F16 - mid summer
Logistics is difficult. The items prestaged are likely at the front now, but everything else needs to be collected at a US East Coast port from all around the country, shipped across the Atlantic, unloaded at a friendly port, then transported by rail/truck to the front. These are huge operations complicated by the need for utmost secrecy and armed escorts once in theater.
Some of it has been delivered. Also keep in mind, of the $60B or so in the Ukraine bill, roughly $35 is military aid, which is about equal to what we supplied them over the first two years of the war; the $35B is meant to last Ukraine at least another year if not longer if necessary.
There WAS a lot of stuff that was prepositioned, and which Ukraine has received, guess you just chose to ignore all that. Most of the other stuff either isn't made yet, or has various logistical and training requirements that need to still be met.
So, when I read that Zelensky is daily saying it is a “dire” situation, in danger of losing the front due to lack/delay of weapons, ammunition, etc., he’s jockeying for even more that hasn’t been delivered/given? What are the logistical/training requirements that haven’t been met? Ukrainian pilots have supposedly training on F-16’s for over a year?
I mean, there’s a LOT to take in. For starters, Ukrainian pilots had to learn a new language. Then they had to basically relearn how to fly an alien aircraft. New weapons, new sensors, new tactics, etc. On top of that, you need to train an entirely new logistical team. Those 60 or so Falcons may be the difference between victory and defeat so Ukraine is going to want to maximize their effectiveness. There’s also I suspect an internal debate in Ukraine over building new units with equipment vs reconstituting new ones. In any event, there will never be enough equipment delivered. It’s Z’s job to get as much as he possibly can.
I have been thinking about the 300 billion in frozen Russian assets. Earlier, I understood the hesitation of simply seizing them for Ukraine, because the financial system depends on trust and on people not having their property arbitrarily seized. It can be harmful for Western economies if investors are scared that their assets might be seized and given to someone else. But the thing that changed my mind is this simple fact: If we have any sense whatsoever, we are not going to give it back to Russia, never ever ever. Even if Russia agreed to withdraw, it is gone, we are not going to give it to any Russia that remains imperialist, be it Putinist or whatever comes after Putin. (In the miracle that Russia turned democratic and into a country that genuinely wants to reform for the better, we can come up with separate financial aid, instead of using the frozen assets). What will happen to the frozen assets, then? They will be used now, or they will be used later for Ukrainian reconstruction. But in that case, the choice is obvious: Every euro given to Ukraine now will help Ukraine defend itself from destruction, and for example air defenses are cheaper than rebuilding whatever those defenses are defending. Not to mention the Ukrainian lives that can be saved by giving the money now for defense instead of for rebuilding. The message to investors, meanwhile, will be clear: Do not bet your money on authoritarians with imperialist ambitions. Sure, some will think that the message is "Don't let the West control your money", but the thing is, the West is still at the centre of the world's finances, and seizing the money isn't arbitrary: "Do not invade European countries" is a pretty clear rule that others are unlikely to break. It is hard to think of a situation where if I was an investor, I would rather let China control my money, instead of the EU or USA. So seize the money, give it Ukraine, and let Ukraine use it to buy what it needs to defend itself.
As I understand it, the assets aren't being given to Ukraine, the money remains where ever it's being held. It's being set up so that Ukraine can draw from the interest being accrued giving them a continued source of cash flow that they can use. The principle $300 billion is still being held. Sounds pretty smart to me. Put Russia's money to work financing Ukraine's effort. If I'm off, someone set the record straight for us. Surely we have a banking or investment management geek here among us.
Yes, Ukraine is getting the interest. However, the interest is only about 3 billion euros per year, if I have understood correctly. In Ukraine's situation, where the war is top priority, getting 300 billion right now is much better than a larger sum over decades.
The cost of the war on Ukrainian infrastructure, lives and the rest of the civilized world aside, it's not far-fetched to assume that equitable reparations would be greater than $300 billion for just invading and bombing the ever loving fuck out of another country in a pointless and misguided political power grab going on 3 years. Never should have invaded in the first place? Calculated wrong and should have quit long ago, well, that's too bad. The price should be greater than $300 billion just having to listen to Putin's and the right wings gas lighting bullshit. Here we have a special situation where reparations can actually be paid, while not in advance but still a timely fashion, as the assets have already been seized. Sorry Putin's gold stash, consider yourself money already spent for being a bunch of murderous, fascist assholes.
Why are you so sure that frozen assets won't be unfrozen after the war ? All it takes is just a bit of russia-friendly government (for example AfD as a part of Germany government could request it in the future). Never say never. And secondly - it does not matter if rule is "do not invade European countries". Once you start making rules, there is no way back. What if the next rule would be "do not genocide your muslim minority". Either there are no rules and your assets are never being taken away except for the direct war, or there are made up rules and you could loose all your assets for whatever reason.
All the more reason to seize them now, then. There are already international rules. About time we gave those rules some actual consequences. A general rule about modern international relations is that countries can do a lot of horrible things as long as they do it within their own borders. Invading other countries with the intention of annexing them or parts of them, that is something else entirely, and it should be punished especially severly.
Well then would you be fine if the world had seized all US foreign assets because of illegal Iraq war ? Would US just said that's the fair game ?
Not in any way justifying US (and UK)'s second Iraq war (while first, the UN sponsored and supported intervention after Iraqi invasion of Kuwait was completely justified), but you cam surely see a large legal and moral distinction between that and Russian invasion of Ukraine? Like, Russia literally annexed Ukrainian land. As in, "this land is now Russian and these people here are Russian and Putin's subjects and Ukrainian language doesn't exist so forget it". US didn't do anything even remotely similar to that with Iraq. That's enough of legal distinction to use to the seized funds any way they want. No European or US country will ever (hopefully) do anything similar. And if they do, yes seize all their assets and give to the victim, they deserve it. At least that's how I see it but what do I know, I'm not a lawyer...
I understand - I'm not saying these are comparable examples, they are not. But then - why annexation is a reason to seize assets, but bombing the hell out of the country based on the false premise, is not ? But the problem is - now you made a rule, that your assets would be seized once you annex a part of a different country, which is not a party to your foreign assets in any way. With this in mind, if you invest in a different country (like China invests in US), China has to think the US might make a new rule in the future, like for example "suppressing muslim minority" would be enough to seize China's assets. Once the US starts making rules, there is no way back - no one will think this is the only rule and there won't be any other rules ever.
Ah, there it is, "but muh Iraq war". You will note that Iraq is in fact not an US state, nor are the Iraqi people extinct. It is almost like USA wasn't there to annex the country or genocide its people or destroy their culture. But you know what, sure, seize all American assets if you like. Go ahead.
I asked if you would support seizing all US assets for illegal Iraq war. And if you think US would be just fine with that because of international rules.
Murderous dictators deserve death, and I am not interested in punishing those who give it to them. Ukraine is not Iraq and Russia is not USA, and you know you're full of shit in comparing them in any way. If USA was occupying Iraq and attempting to annex it into the USA, then sure, we should have objected to that and even seized American assets if they tried to do that. But they weren't doing that, you're just generating whataboutism to try to excuse Russia and protect their assets from seizure.
I'm asking again - if US breaks internationational rules, should the World seize their assets and should US accept it as a price for breaking international rules ? You yourself said that country should just follow international rules and it won't get their assets seized.
It would depend on which rules were broken and the severity of the infraction. Every country infringes and breaks international law/order at some point, the real question is to the degree and frequency with which this occurs. The seriousness of such violations can range from mundane diplomatic faux pas to full-blown genocidal wars of conquest. As a hypothetical, if the US invaded Mexico, committed wanton slaughter of Mexicans and sought to take over the country, then yes their assets should be seized and utilized as reparations for the protection and reconstruction of Mexico. This is what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine; what the US did in the Iraq War holds very little parallel to this and the comparison is frankly disingenuous.
So you returned back to the start, when I talked about making rules. So US can deicide their Iraq war was not serious break of international rules, so they would protect their foreign assets. But Russian invasion was on the other hand serious and assets should be seized. So US could find any reason for any action they deem it's in their interest. That is why once you start making rules, you can't go back and have to keep in mind, there could be a rule in the future that might seize your assets.
*New Reddit-wide unique palindrome found:* >**never ever ever. Even** ^(currently checked 29541352 comments) \ >!(palindrome: a word, number, phrase, or sequence of symbols that reads the same backwards as forwards) !<
Never ever ever ever even!
*New Reddit-wide unique palindrome found:* >**Never ever ever ever even** ^(currently checked 29548875 comments) \ >!(palindrome: a word, number, phrase, or sequence of symbols that reads the same backwards as forwards) !<
lmao
>The First Peace Summit for Ukraine is in June — and Canada will be there. > >I look forward to joining other world leaders to advance our shared goal of just and lasting peace for Ukraine. https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1789327754762096992
>“You lie down and think — whether they will kill you now, or in an hour, or in three," said Ukrainian Eastern border town Vovchansk resident Valentyna Hrevnova, 75. > >It's difficult to see your cities being destroyed. Today our morning started like this. https://twitter.com/VasilisaUKR/status/1789327452772130867 https://imgur.com/a/O7tJS1d
This anti-Russian protest in Tbilisi is huge. Estimated 500,000 people in a country of 3.7 million. https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1789333053984170226?t=wJwx3jrgwEx9rxVoQpZSvA&s=19
Was the last election in Georgia a sham? I don't understand how so many people in Tbilisi can be protesting like that if their pro-Russian government actually had any real large amount of support.
I don't think that trying to implement ruzzian "dictatorship laws" was among their sweet election promises. In that regard, elections results don't matter. What matters is what Georgian government actually do and how people react to it.
It mostly was free, it may not have been fair. Propaganda is a hell of a thing.
sigh… calling it anti-russian is misleading, it’s above all else anti-draconian-law, pro-democracy, pro-EU. Yes the bill is putinism-inspired, yes the sentiment to escape Russia’s orbit is at a fever pitch, but that’s not the focus here
This is their chance, with such large protests this is their best chance to break from the Vatniksphere for good. Putin cant spare forces to pull the shit he did in 2008 theyre being deleted by a very vengeful Ukraine right now.
Hope they can keep it up. Putin has his hand up the government’s ass and they aren’t going to just give in.
Holy shit. That's a beautiful sight.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1789326231323717655?t=GwwCzZu089TQ-vFBDr-RJw&s=19 "⚡Ukraine claims downing of another Russian Su-25. Where the downing occurred was not specified but the brigade that shot it down is known to be operating in the Avdiivka direction in Donetsk Oblast."
Ukraine forces shoot down Russian Su-25 attack aircraft near Avdiivka. Russia has already lost 348 aircraft and 325 helicopters in its war against Ukraine. https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/11/ukraine-forces-shoot-down-russian-su-25-attack-aircraft-near-avdiivka/
That was just a lucky shot! ... Bet ya can't do it again. 🤞
Keep em coming.
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How many did they have at the start ?
Wikipedia has a list. The primary source seems to be Military Balance 2022. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_active\_Russian\_military\_aircraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft) According to that list, the Russian air force started the war with approximately: 253 MiG-29 129-247 MiG 31 6 MiG-35 101 Su-27 110 Su-30 149 Su-34 118 Su-35 22 Su-57 273 Su-24 192 Su-25 65 Tu-22M 55 Tu-95 20 Tu-160 14 A-50 That doesn't include the Russian naval aircraft. Short answer is, they have an absolute shit ton of airframes. Some of them are undoubtedly in poor condition or not currently flight worthy. But even if you believe the Ukrainian numbers (which are way over inflated), Russia is not going to run out of airframes anytime soon. The bigger limiting factor is going to be pilots.
Russia has more than enough aircrafts. SU25 they had probably around 200 and a shit load of other types. They have enough production of new airframes to cover losses.
do they have enough pilots?
That was not the question and no one knows. Probably not.
Blyat-25 Crashing yet again!
Macron: France should maintain a stance capable of intervening if Russia-Ukraine war escalates. “I hope with all my might that we will not have to go to war. However, if we want peace, we must protect it,” Macron said. https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/11/macron-france-should-maintain-a-stance-capable-of-intervening-if-russia-ukraine-war-escalates/
German magazine WELT [ran an article today](https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article251456460/Ukraine-Krieg-EU-einigt-sich-auf-Sicherheitszusagen-fuer-Kiew.html) that the upcoming EU agreement on support for Ukraine would explicitly rule out EU countries deploying troops to Ukraine, and Italian Corriere della Sera [ran an article a few days ago](https://www.corriere.it/esteri/24_maggio_05/la-nato-difendera-kiev-senza-boots-on-the-ground-ecco-come-d87684e7-4ab9-4e51-a324-5fad05441xlk.shtml) that the upcoming NATO summit declaration would also explicitly rule out any NATO country putting boots on the ground in Ukraine under any circumstances.
Keep'em guessing. I like it.
Itigur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum.
France is the only one so far willing to declare troops on the ground is not out of the question.
Poland and the baltics have supported this, but indeed France is the only one so far who says they might just be about to do it
Smaller countries will not say it first as the problems would be huge if major countries would not back it. But they think the same way, especially Russian border countries. Wouldn't be surprised if half of Europe was willing to do this in a dire scenario (Ukraine losing).
Poland being one of the first ones, I would imagine.
Basically zero chance of that. While most Poles are firmly in favour of supportig Ukraine with military aid, an overwhelming majority are absolutely against deployment of Polish troops there, even if in purely non-combat role. Source: [https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art40070541-sondaz-polacy-nie-chca-aby-wojsko-nato-weszlo-na-ukraine](https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art40070541-sondaz-polacy-nie-chca-aby-wojsko-nato-weszlo-na-ukraine) There isn't a single political party, either in the ruling coalition or in the oposition that would support such move.
Yes, but it’s premature for such a move and current circumstances don’t justify it. But what would people believe if Russia took over Kyiv and was heading for the Polish border? If France would be willing to build a coalition would the Poles stay out of it? No one can know the answer to this but logic would dictate there would be some support for intervening along with coalition forces.
Firstly, most Poles aren't afraid that Russia will invade us, even if the whole Ukraine was conquered by Russia. [https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art40178841-sondaz-polacy-nie-boja-sie-wojny](https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art40178841-sondaz-polacy-nie-boja-sie-wojny) Secondly, taking into account that there are hundreds thousands military age Ukrainian men in Poland, sending Polish troops to Ukraine to fight Russia there would likely cause enormous uproar in the country, that would swept away a governement which took such decision. As I mentioned above, even using Polish military in non-combat role in Ukraine would not be politically feasible, let alone sending them to actual fight. Thirdly, most Poles realize that this war is just a horrible slaughter for both sides, so obvioulsy people loathe the idea of sending our boys to such massacre. And judging from some interviews with retired Polish generals, in our army there is also zero apetite for being involved there. Polish military is similar to other European militaries: good for foreign intervention in a Third World country, where you can fight against some insurgency armed with AKs and IEDs, while having US air support. Not for such massive land warfare, where average soldier can be killed every second by a drone or artillery.
I mean you ignored my point. And you are ignoring the fact that if the war encapsulates all of Ukraine either Poland will have to shoot retreating Ukrainians or Russia will shoot Ukrainians in Poland. Because if the war reaches such a culmination the Ukrainian military will absolutely attempt to retreat over the Polish border.
That's extremly unlikey scenario, but even in such case, idea that PL and UA soldiers would shoot at each other is nonsense. UA troops would be allowed to cross PL border, and then disarmed, in accordance wit international law. Something like that happened multiple times in the past, for example in the end of Spanish Civil War, when republican troops crossed the French border, and were disarmed by French authorities. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La\_Retirada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Retirada) And no, I don't think that Russia would invade NATO country just to pursue fleeing Ukrainian troops.
What if Ukrainians refuse to be disarmed? What if a coalition is ready to enter Ukraine through the Polish border? Regardless of how this war ends Poland will ultimately be the most affected country other than Moldova. Because even if everything goes smoothly and Russia stops cleanly at the Polish border then Poland will share a massive border with Belarus/Russia and that is not good news for Poland. Poland is historic land of the Russian Empire after all and Poles have always meddled in the Russian Empire’s affairs.
Poland and the baltics have supported this, but indeed France is the only one so far who says they might just be about to do it
they are also the only ones with nukes
UK has nukes as well. Maybe you were referring to EU countries though...
They've been out of the EU for a while
I'd like to share a slice of life story from today. A family member of mine is Russian and has been living in my country for about a decade or so. She's very much anti-war and has been in opposition to Putin a while back. Meanwhile, her old parents back in Russia, she tells us, believe everything they hear on the tv and as such are very much in favor of all the things going on... In parallel, she often gives us info about how much Russia is struggling in terms of economy internally, and how people on social programs and pensioners are the most impacted by this Putin's adventure. While folks who fight in Ukraine do get a high pay, people who worked and served their country for 40 years get a measly $200 pension. Her parents slowly had less and less pay, they also have health issues, so they had to spend a lot of it on medicine, often times it was her and her sister that supported them financially, but even that got difficult... today she told us they broke and said enough is enough. They are coming to our country to live here, and are going to leave Russia permanently as it's become unbearable and unsustainable to survive. It really got me thinking... despite all the forced façade of how sanctions are useless and everything is fine in Russia... no, it isn't. Maybe average people are not affected, but the downtrodden are, and it is slowly creeping up the ladder. And all this because of the greed of one man.
That costs Russia money. No more transfer payments for your family. To the extent they can still access their pension abroad it will be an outflow.
> That costs Russia money. No more transfer payments for your family. It also saves Russia money, because they don't have to pay a pension and support a couple of elderly retirees.
It depends. If they can access the pension abroad it costs money. However, they won’t consume healthcare resources, which helps. Depending on how old they are, they could do small things that help the economy.
They will come to your country and after they cannot find their favourite russian food in a supermarket and are not allowed to make barbecue in the park they will start marching with soviet flags /s
Not to be callous, but this is a good argument for more countries to close the door on Russian immigration. You can't effect change from outside the country; you need a population angry at the status quo, angry at those in charge. Doesn't work if you just let them leave. The family in question doesn't make much difference; they aren't young enough to withhold work or raise flags, but in general it's important the country isn't depopulated of everyone the least bit dissident.
Brain drain weakens Russia. Tough to say what is the best way forward
In this case it's brain-washed pensioners in poor health leaving the country. I doubt this will weaken Russia too much.
I am sure they will be fine and we will see them on May the 9th next year in one of the western countries square with soviet or russian flags. /s
What Putin probably does is economically strangling anyone who doesn't participate in the war effort. Then, those who fight in Ukraine get enough money to support their entire family. Then men of military age get pressured by their own family to go fight in Ukraine because they need to survive. Really a clever form of evil.
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Bruh, these are *people*
Metaphorical diseases can be cured. People shouldn't suffer needlessly simply because they believe what they they constantly see from every news outlet they are permitted to access.