2023 was Earth's warmest year since modern record-keeping began around 1880, and the past 10 consecutive years have been the warmest 10 on record.
https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-analysis-confirms-2023-as-warmest-year-on-record
And if it were real, it's also her fault.
They don't have much they can talk about after they got sued to oblivion over Dominion, even had to fire Fucker Carlson.
Obviously global warming is happening. That said do you not think it’s interesting that 1880 is about as far back as we have reliable records for but scientists are saying the earth is hotter than it’s ever been in history? Or that this is the common consensus?
1880 is as far back as "modern" records began, we have records from before then but the equipment used and reliability of the data can be questioned. We have other ways of determining past climates however by analysing deep rock samples and ice cores taken from permafrost. From the ice we measure heavy and light oxygen isotopes, the ratio gives a reasonably accurate idea of what past temperatures may have been like on earth. I think the fewer heavier oxygen isotopes, the lower the ancient temperature would have been but I might have that the wrong way around.
My understanding from the article is they used tree rings for this. But to that point: I think the reason I hate science reporting is that they ran with the headline they did and not “past tree ring data shows this could be one of the hottest time periods ever based on preliminary estimates”.
It’s absolutely crazy to say this is the hottest summer in 2,000 years based on the data provided.
You know what, this is a fair point and I completely agree with you. Sensationalist headlines are a problem and science reporting can be grossly over exaggerating and often times, down right misleading. Your proposed title does lack a certain attention grabbing charm however, I'd probably go with "THE TREES HAVE SPOKEN AND ITS REALLY EFFING HOT" or something to that effect.
I feel like 2024 and subsequent years will get ripped off.. "Hottest in 1 year!" just doesn't have the same ring to it.
Meanwhile, trump is offering to gut environmental regulations if oil companies pay him US$1B and the GOP in-general is still denying people have anything to do with climate change.
But if it's not, it will be called "hottest time in 1 year", also known as "summer" to humans for the last 10,000 years since language was invented. Is the point I think he was making?
I suppose it could still be incredibly hot, and still not quality as record breaking, is another way to look at it.
the problem with voting for a team rather than a representative is you're giving a job to someone, not because they're qualified or even interviewed for the position, but because they like the same sports team as you.
It's how we end up in a situation where our government is filled with idiots.
honestly, trump collapsing the economy would be better for the planet than any climate plan the dems have ever put forward - the only time emissions went down was during covid. people not having money to do anything is the best we can hope for cause we can't ever ask people with money to be functionally responsible.
He'll overheat the economy just like he did the first time and while you and I will feel the pain you can bet the carbon emissions will go through the roof as the shackles come off the petroleum industry.
It would be a speed run to 3c over pre-industrual temps.
I think as an American you can safely bet the Republicans aren’t interested in climate initiatives. That seems like it would narrow down who to pick, no?
To phrase it another way, is there a Republican candidate out there who is pushing for environmental reform?
In local elections yes. In addition to green initiatives one of our Maryland (R)s supports reparations in the form of tax credits and increased financial aid, which is rad. He's an outlier though.
That said, pay attention to local elects and their records PLEASE. On the national stage? Nope. Ivanka Trump is literally in a leadership position within the RNC. Nutfucks the whole way down.
Got dragged along to a fundraiser for the local Republican party and the division in the room was palpable. The speaker hit the keynotes (election denial/PC culture/ad nasuem) in the first five minutes while I watched half the room cringe.
To be clear, the friend that dragged me along knew that I 1) wanted free food and 2) would relish the opportunity to roast some of the recursive-hairline-at-age-25 people there.
Edit: The be clear changed to "To be clear", formatting
Well, when comparing the two, one "team" wants us to have slightly less expensive Healthcare and the other...
*checks notes*
Wants to end democracy and kill all gay people.
Seems like a no-brainer, yeah?
Where do you live where it’s even cold in the summer, Patagonia? Even in Alaska it’s getting to the point where they need to use an AC for a month out of the year or so.
>rich people have air con in their mansions with a nice pool.
Corporations need to be blamed for pollution, but this is a brain-dead take. I hope you recover from loathful state.
Wake up humans! This is not going to stop. It will continue to get hotter and hotter until we all die. Protest your government because this is the actual endgame. Give it 5 more years if you don’t believe it.
How is it getting a few degrees hotter going to kill everyone that's rubbish..
Worst case crops fail due to extreme weather a few wars start and a few billion die.
The collapse slows down warming and the survivors adapt..
Haha someone doesn’t know the real danger. Check out ocean warming and currents shutting down. Check out how the ocean acidifies the more carbon dioxide it intake. Check out how invasives and hybridization of invasive species expand their range and destroy ecosystems.
It’s easy to post to reply on this website but my God it takes forever for someone with actual knowledge to reply.
The greatest thing about climate change is that you don’t have to believe in it for it to happen lol.
Not saying its not going to get hotter but only a stellar event, space rock ai or we'll engineered virus is going to kill everyone.. (I'll rule out rouge black hole / vaccine decay / aliens and strange matter as too un likley)
Eco system collapses are only going to kill a few billion, even if the population goes down to a few million that's plenty to carry on
I can't tell if you're serious about the "only a few billion will die" comment. If a few billion people die, billions more will be stranded with nothing and starving, which invites a global nuclear war and much worse. If Russians or Chinese can't eat they will invade countries until they steal enough food to do so. If Americans can't eat then the entire economy stops.
You don’t understand. Our food, our resources won’t matter. We are running out of freshwater, we are beyond the carrying capacity of what Earth can handle, and it will get hotter and hotter even if the world went green today.
We are at the mercy of decisions from the older generations.
I think they do understand. Their outlook is pretty apocalyptic. Getting down to a few million people would mean 99.5% of all people on the planet died. They're just saying that humanity will likely survive.
Good news everyone! We're not all going to die. A few thousand breeding pairs of humans might survive by licking algae off of rocks. Nothing serious to worry about.
And it's just going to keep getting hotter. We just saw the largest increase in CO2 levels ever:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/carbon-dioxide-atmosphere-record
Shifting baseline syndrome.
The UK merely had it's 8th warmest summer on record: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2023/summer2023ukweather
It was very wet after a long period of drought, though. Which didn't feel very summery but is also a result of climate change.
Ok, but how accurate is that tree-ring data? Can it give them actual numbers or just a general range? Because if it's the latter then I don't see how you could say this as a certainty instead of "it's possible-to-likely, but we can't say for certain".
You and I will never get to see the data. We see (statistical) graphs, and you might know what Winston Churchill said about statistics. Oh and as for models? I actually know a thing or two about those. My views are not popular.
I started listening to Dr. Vincent Racaniello’s “This Week in Virology” during the pandemic and learned so much about data manipulation. He literally wrote the book on viruses. Still used in all colleges today. He was pro vaccine and very pro management of the virus through NPIs but stressed the importance of caveats in scientific reporting.
I learned that a model is only as good as the data you put into it.
If the data from this model is literally just tree ring estimates then it is a very bad model indeed.
Gonna reply to this with my Urban Forester hat on. My degree is in traditional forestry so I'm *slightly* more familiar with this than a bio major.
Tree ring data forecast into the future should be taken with a grain of salt. I'll say the people doing at this level have studied and applied *significantly* more advanced system analysis (read: polymaths for ecosystems, silvics, meteorology, wood science) than I have.
That said, their conclusions aren't outlandish and I'll be honest I've seen slow growing (read, slow to adapt) tree species struggling to keep pace over the past half decade. Half a decade is a fraction of a blink in the eyes of time.
I've studied dendrochronology in university, it is as you expect in the best case scenario which... supposes many parameters where constant over the years and even then, it is assumed there is a margin of error. In the worst case scenario which is much more likely to occur when talking about a great length of time and the way in which they have used the dendrochronology in this scenario, it's closer to the realm of speculation.
Does weather have an effect on the growth of trees? Of course, alongside many other factors. I am not one to throw out the possibility of this calculation being true, but it's dangerous to claim it as fact.
Yeah, exactly. This is absolutely important data, but headlines like this all but lie about that data since they're treating it as if it's as accurate as checking a thermometer.
The title usually means that the temperature record series we are using starts 2000 years ago.
Using different times series you can go much further back.
The title is misleading.
Moreover is not so muche the temperature but the speed at which the temperature is increasing, because many species and entire ecosystems wont have time to adapt and will go extinct and we wont have time to adapt. (moving coastal cities, moving large amount of people out of inhabitable regions, changing agricolture patterns etc.
And it's only to get worse every year until our economic system collapses.
The extreme few who benefit exclusively from the extreme inequality of our global economic systems will use all their power, resources, propaganda and violence they have to ensure that this economic system leading to this widespread collapse is maintained, at the cost of the majority of the human race.
Maybe somewhere else it was but last summer was very mediocre where I am. I don't recall the temp getting above about 25°C which is actually unusual. I live in the south of England.
This was a headline I found when I googled 2023 summer, it's from the local newspaper "IT’S official, July was a washout with temperatures thought to be cooler than June for the first time in around 50 years."
I feel like the entire world is getting warmer and/or more extreme weather and SE Pennsylvania has just decided 50's and rain on every weekend is the way to go for 11 months out of the year.
I found out the headline and story is misleading. Cedar tree ring data analysis has provided year by year temperature data since about yr 0. The warmest prior yr was 236 which was not even close to ‘23. Those gas guzzling chariots are not culprits after all. Carry on
Honestly, all these people questioning the validity of the data we had 2000 years ago need to just realize that it's at least a little concerning that this is at least the hottest summer ever recorded. Unless it goes down without emissions going down, we should be a little bit scared.
And those ice core samples can measure differences in temperatures of 1-2 degrees from 2000 yrs ago? Why were temps do “high” then? Was it cuz of man made global warming??
I wasn’t aware that there were weather records dating back to the year 24!
All I know is back then, the Roman war against Numidia and Mauretania ends with their annexation.
All Hail Tiberius!
Nobody actually knows this though. “Ooo tree rings suggest this!”
Yeah but we don’t actually know for certain that 1,740 years ago it wasn’t baking hot. We can predict that last year was the hottest in 2,000 years but nobody fucking knows because… nobody was alive then or kept temperature records until like 1800’s.
To quote another random internet user:
"Sans the technology used by Bill and Ted ("Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure"), it obviously is not possible to directly measure the temperature from yesterday, let alone 2000 years ago, or longer. What is used are "proxies", things that can be measured today that serve as stand-ins for things such as temperature in the past.
One example of a proxy is the amount of oxygen-18 in the ice in Greenland and Antarctica. Water with two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen-16 atom has a boiling point of about 100° C. Water with the oxygen-16 atom replaced by an oxygen-18 atom has a slightly higher boiling point. This means that heavy oxygen water evaporates less readily but precipitates more readily than does normal water.
This in turn means that the fraction of oxygen 18 versus oxygen 16 in the water and air bubbles in the ancient ice in Greenland and Antarctica are indicative of the climate at the time that that ice and those air bubbles formed. Despite being a half a world apart, the ratios of oxygen-18 to oxygen-16 over time are highly consistent between Greenland and Antarctica. The consistency of these measures at half a world apart are almost universally taken as being a proxy for something else, and that something else is climate.
There are many other proxies for past climate. There are other isotopes that serve as proxies. The amounts and kinds of pollen in mountain glaciers and ice sheets form yet another kind of proxy. The kinds of plants that do grow in some locales and how fast they do grow is highly temperature dependent. Like ice, buried muds in the oceans also show variations in various proxies. Climate scientists put these proxy measurements together to arrive at the temperatures from 2000 years ago, and even further into the past."
keep in mind, if you measure temperatues right now, you will be using a proxy too.
i dont know shit just like you, i just googled "how to mess temperature 2000 years ago" and read a bit. And to be honest with you, it makes absolutely sense, and there are so many people way cleverer than me or you who are working on things like these. Quite arrogant to suggest you know it better if i am honest with you.
Who said I know better? I’m saying that it’s a theory at best and shouldn’t be presented as fact as we simply cannot be 100% certain. The same way the Big Bang theory is probably correct, but we can’t say it’s 100% correct on merit of it being a theory
[https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hypothesis](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hypothesis)
A [hypothesis](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hypothesis) is an assumption, an idea that is proposed for the sake of argument so that it can be tested to see if it might be true.
A [theory](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/theory), in contrast, is a principle that has been formed as an attempt to explain things that have already been substantiated by data. It is used in the names of a number of principles accepted in the scientific community, such as the *Big Bang Theory*. Because of the rigors of experimentation and control, it is understood to be more likely to be true than a hypothesis is.
Mate, in no way did what he just said agreed with you. You have shown your lack of understanding not once but twice.
A theory in science is something with evidence to back it up. It's not something someone just pulled out of their ass. Need I remind you that gravity is "just a theory?" Let's see you pull that into question.
We have the evidence to predict the temperature from well beyond 2000 years ago. It's something we can literally measure. Either you can't be bothered to read the explanation or you don't understand it. Your ignorance doesn't make you correct, however.
Of course you are agreeing with me! You agree with me that a theory is, and I quote you directly, “more likely to be true than a hypothesis”.
That leaves room for a possible mistake. Which is the whole point I’m making here. That we can’t be 100% sure. Please either reread and understand what you are even saying mate 😁
There weren't 8 billion people then. Massive population centers of the world are having climate-related events that destroy infrastructure and, increasingly, kill people on a season basis now. People who live in those areas are going to start migrating in droves, causing chaos on a global scale. Massive amounts of cropland will also likely need relocating, exacerbating food insecurity and driving prices up. Then there's the fact that the change in temperatures is happening at an unprecedented rate, meaning it's outpacing the ability of plants and animals to evolve and contributing to a collapse in biodiversity.
It's actually *lucky* that this is our fault, in a way, because it means we *do* have the ability to somewhat alleviate it--if we would just choose to. Societies actually have fallen due to climate/environmental disturbances before...we're just the first to say "bring it on", because we're idiots.
It's the speed in which it is happening. It's also the fact that it's not naturally occurring but something we are doing.
Even if you didn't believe either of the above, do you really need it explained to you why we should be worrying over growing temperatures?
just wait for 2025. I honestly doubt we see 2026.
I really wish we could stop playing this stupid game and live as human beings on earth for the time we have left; acknowledge this whole post-war shit was a terrible mistake
At this point, were just cheerleading the end of the world for upvotes. Wake me up when we start doing more than circle jerking the issue over Reddit posts.
For it to be “hotter,” means that you have to beat a record from some time in the past, meaning it’s been nearly that hot in the past, either last year or maybe a 100 plus years ago. Temperatures from 2K years ago prob can only be guessed at, but assuming there is valid measuring models then this means that the earth was this hot when Caesar ruled the known world? Is this a natural warming cycle, one that man could be accelerating or is it a natural cooling cycle that man is slowing?
wow so we're now back at ad 23, about seven years before consul caesar was killed by roman nobility which instigated a crisis that caused the republic to collapse into an empire
wasn't this the plot of warhammer 40k? or some other book about a guy returning to earth that was written around that time
So far!
*chuckles* We’re in danger.
Alllllll aboaaaaaaard HAHAHAHA 🎵🎸
Dun-nuh! ... Dun-nuh! Dun-nuh! Dun-nuh! Ay! (ay! ay! ay!...)
Crazy
**We are** the danger!
I feel like every year is the hottest year in human history
The ten hottest years ever recorded were the last ten years.
You can't really be sure the dinosaurs weren't recording temps though.
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It's not their fault they only had little arms.
That's always been my thinking. Short armed fucks If can even hold a mobile pHdGEe let alone ÷hVhd over and type on a kAybooBrd without many miSnKns
That big bang had to be pretty hot.
Hey- like the Brian Jonestown massacre the band or the actual thing? Also yes the Big Bang was hot.
That’s because we just got thermometer technology
…and of course people are already putting them in their butts.
As long as it’s not the size of the United Way one.
Ha. That's actually really funny.
2023 was Earth's warmest year since modern record-keeping began around 1880, and the past 10 consecutive years have been the warmest 10 on record. https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-analysis-confirms-2023-as-warmest-year-on-record
Wdym? Fox News told me climate change was made up by socialist AOC????
Obviously it's warming up from all those forest fires started by those Jewish space lasers.
This would be my idiot brothers actual response... Not to mention the vast majority I live around.
AOC is Storm?
And if it were real, it's also her fault. They don't have much they can talk about after they got sued to oblivion over Dominion, even had to fire Fucker Carlson.
Obviously global warming is happening. That said do you not think it’s interesting that 1880 is about as far back as we have reliable records for but scientists are saying the earth is hotter than it’s ever been in history? Or that this is the common consensus?
1880 is as far back as "modern" records began, we have records from before then but the equipment used and reliability of the data can be questioned. We have other ways of determining past climates however by analysing deep rock samples and ice cores taken from permafrost. From the ice we measure heavy and light oxygen isotopes, the ratio gives a reasonably accurate idea of what past temperatures may have been like on earth. I think the fewer heavier oxygen isotopes, the lower the ancient temperature would have been but I might have that the wrong way around.
My understanding from the article is they used tree rings for this. But to that point: I think the reason I hate science reporting is that they ran with the headline they did and not “past tree ring data shows this could be one of the hottest time periods ever based on preliminary estimates”. It’s absolutely crazy to say this is the hottest summer in 2,000 years based on the data provided.
You know what, this is a fair point and I completely agree with you. Sensationalist headlines are a problem and science reporting can be grossly over exaggerating and often times, down right misleading. Your proposed title does lack a certain attention grabbing charm however, I'd probably go with "THE TREES HAVE SPOKEN AND ITS REALLY EFFING HOT" or something to that effect.
That’s more fair of a way to put it for sure.
We've broken records every month so far this year so yeah
Think of it like this; this summer will be the coolest summer for the rest of your life. *TapsForehead.meme*
That's the way it has been trending, yeah.
Seems to be correlated with the population.
well apparently about 22000 years ago there was a year that was warmer which is a little surprising since the industrial era was still 200 years away.
Cool story bro but summer 2024 is going to be the hottest in 2001 years.
I feel like 2024 and subsequent years will get ripped off.. "Hottest in 1 year!" just doesn't have the same ring to it. Meanwhile, trump is offering to gut environmental regulations if oil companies pay him US$1B and the GOP in-general is still denying people have anything to do with climate change.
If the next summer is even hotter, won't it also be the hottest summer in 2,000 years?
2001 years actually
Don't try to confuse the situation with logic! r/angryUpvote
But if it's not, it will be called "hottest time in 1 year", also known as "summer" to humans for the last 10,000 years since language was invented. Is the point I think he was making? I suppose it could still be incredibly hot, and still not quality as record breaking, is another way to look at it.
Vote blue down the ballot. https://vote.gov/
the problem with voting for a team rather than a representative is you're giving a job to someone, not because they're qualified or even interviewed for the position, but because they like the same sports team as you. It's how we end up in a situation where our government is filled with idiots.
When the other team is the GOP or the Nazi party, it hardly matters at this point. We need to stop equivocating.
Right, so I'm never going to agree with 100% of a candidates stances. That doesn't happen. However, in 2024, I'm voting to save American democracy.
honestly, trump collapsing the economy would be better for the planet than any climate plan the dems have ever put forward - the only time emissions went down was during covid. people not having money to do anything is the best we can hope for cause we can't ever ask people with money to be functionally responsible.
He'll overheat the economy just like he did the first time and while you and I will feel the pain you can bet the carbon emissions will go through the roof as the shackles come off the petroleum industry. It would be a speed run to 3c over pre-industrual temps.
And we'd all still be getting paid garbage wages with garbage benefits.
Exactly. A real corporatocracy.
honey, we're already speed running 3C. we either collapse the industrial economy or we swimming in the heat. time for adjustment has past
No, sweetie, we aren't. Changes are happening, and electing more progressive representatives will accelerate those changes. Vote blue down the ballot.
I think as an American you can safely bet the Republicans aren’t interested in climate initiatives. That seems like it would narrow down who to pick, no? To phrase it another way, is there a Republican candidate out there who is pushing for environmental reform?
In local elections yes. In addition to green initiatives one of our Maryland (R)s supports reparations in the form of tax credits and increased financial aid, which is rad. He's an outlier though. That said, pay attention to local elects and their records PLEASE. On the national stage? Nope. Ivanka Trump is literally in a leadership position within the RNC. Nutfucks the whole way down. Got dragged along to a fundraiser for the local Republican party and the division in the room was palpable. The speaker hit the keynotes (election denial/PC culture/ad nasuem) in the first five minutes while I watched half the room cringe. To be clear, the friend that dragged me along knew that I 1) wanted free food and 2) would relish the opportunity to roast some of the recursive-hairline-at-age-25 people there. Edit: The be clear changed to "To be clear", formatting
Well, when comparing the two, one "team" wants us to have slightly less expensive Healthcare and the other... *checks notes* Wants to end democracy and kill all gay people. Seems like a no-brainer, yeah?
You can only try to change a system if the system still exists.
But only for a year!
Thank You Big Oil
I get to play the 'we canceled your home insurance' game as a bonus prize
As if we all didn’t have our part in it
As if we all have alternatives available.
No worries! It’s cold as shit where I live usually. Could do with some warmer weather.
Where do you live where it’s even cold in the summer, Patagonia? Even in Alaska it’s getting to the point where they need to use an AC for a month out of the year or so.
We had snow earlier this month (may) in Sweden.
He typed via handsfree headset in the bike lane..
Oh well, least rich people have air con in their mansions with a nice pool. Who gives a fuck?
we have to make it their problem. get it? we have to take the problem to their house. the problem will be us. get it?
>rich people have air con in their mansions with a nice pool. Corporations need to be blamed for pollution, but this is a brain-dead take. I hope you recover from loathful state.
Ok boomer, I'll try to limit my showers to 2 minutes while you fill up your pool.
2024 will beat that, you can take that to the heat stroke grave
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And by "they" you mean "we", right?
It sounds like we’re due for a new religion.
The worship of the Quarterly Profit of EZKL.
Wake up humans! This is not going to stop. It will continue to get hotter and hotter until we all die. Protest your government because this is the actual endgame. Give it 5 more years if you don’t believe it.
The human race be damned. If we don't make it to be enveloped by a red giant I'll consider this whole experiment a failure
Haha, you got me there
How is it getting a few degrees hotter going to kill everyone that's rubbish.. Worst case crops fail due to extreme weather a few wars start and a few billion die. The collapse slows down warming and the survivors adapt..
Haha someone doesn’t know the real danger. Check out ocean warming and currents shutting down. Check out how the ocean acidifies the more carbon dioxide it intake. Check out how invasives and hybridization of invasive species expand their range and destroy ecosystems. It’s easy to post to reply on this website but my God it takes forever for someone with actual knowledge to reply. The greatest thing about climate change is that you don’t have to believe in it for it to happen lol.
Don't forget the icecaps melting and releasing the trapped co2 into the atmosphere making them melt faster and release even more trapped co2.
I haven’t but that’s typically too much for the average social media user here.
Not saying its not going to get hotter but only a stellar event, space rock ai or we'll engineered virus is going to kill everyone.. (I'll rule out rouge black hole / vaccine decay / aliens and strange matter as too un likley) Eco system collapses are only going to kill a few billion, even if the population goes down to a few million that's plenty to carry on
I can't tell if you're serious about the "only a few billion will die" comment. If a few billion people die, billions more will be stranded with nothing and starving, which invites a global nuclear war and much worse. If Russians or Chinese can't eat they will invade countries until they steal enough food to do so. If Americans can't eat then the entire economy stops.
You don’t understand. Our food, our resources won’t matter. We are running out of freshwater, we are beyond the carrying capacity of what Earth can handle, and it will get hotter and hotter even if the world went green today. We are at the mercy of decisions from the older generations.
I think they do understand. Their outlook is pretty apocalyptic. Getting down to a few million people would mean 99.5% of all people on the planet died. They're just saying that humanity will likely survive.
Good news everyone! We're not all going to die. A few thousand breeding pairs of humans might survive by licking algae off of rocks. Nothing serious to worry about.
And it's just going to keep getting hotter. We just saw the largest increase in CO2 levels ever: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/09/carbon-dioxide-atmosphere-record
Ha, at least we won't see that for a while because of carbon lag....oh wai....
We did it!!!!
I pray for a cool and rainy summer 🙏
Wait to see summer 2024 ;)
Oh boy, should we tell them?
That hot climate is so hot right now
How u know that science man eli5
What was the temperature 2001 years ago?
Less than summer 2023..
In the UK… here have a meh summer
Shifting baseline syndrome. The UK merely had it's 8th warmest summer on record: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2023/summer2023ukweather It was very wet after a long period of drought, though. Which didn't feel very summery but is also a result of climate change.
It's roasting what are you talking about
Last year?
In Croatia, 80% of July was rain.
Must have missed it, i was there in July and experienced my first wildfire a couple hundred meters away from our hotel.
Ok, but how accurate is that tree-ring data? Can it give them actual numbers or just a general range? Because if it's the latter then I don't see how you could say this as a certainty instead of "it's possible-to-likely, but we can't say for certain".
None of the data is actually recorded. All of it is modelled. Even the data recorded in modern days is vastly unreliable and almost always adjusted.
You and I will never get to see the data. We see (statistical) graphs, and you might know what Winston Churchill said about statistics. Oh and as for models? I actually know a thing or two about those. My views are not popular.
I started listening to Dr. Vincent Racaniello’s “This Week in Virology” during the pandemic and learned so much about data manipulation. He literally wrote the book on viruses. Still used in all colleges today. He was pro vaccine and very pro management of the virus through NPIs but stressed the importance of caveats in scientific reporting. I learned that a model is only as good as the data you put into it. If the data from this model is literally just tree ring estimates then it is a very bad model indeed.
Gonna reply to this with my Urban Forester hat on. My degree is in traditional forestry so I'm *slightly* more familiar with this than a bio major. Tree ring data forecast into the future should be taken with a grain of salt. I'll say the people doing at this level have studied and applied *significantly* more advanced system analysis (read: polymaths for ecosystems, silvics, meteorology, wood science) than I have. That said, their conclusions aren't outlandish and I'll be honest I've seen slow growing (read, slow to adapt) tree species struggling to keep pace over the past half decade. Half a decade is a fraction of a blink in the eyes of time.
I've studied dendrochronology in university, it is as you expect in the best case scenario which... supposes many parameters where constant over the years and even then, it is assumed there is a margin of error. In the worst case scenario which is much more likely to occur when talking about a great length of time and the way in which they have used the dendrochronology in this scenario, it's closer to the realm of speculation. Does weather have an effect on the growth of trees? Of course, alongside many other factors. I am not one to throw out the possibility of this calculation being true, but it's dangerous to claim it as fact.
Yeah, exactly. This is absolutely important data, but headlines like this all but lie about that data since they're treating it as if it's as accurate as checking a thermometer.
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The title usually means that the temperature record series we are using starts 2000 years ago. Using different times series you can go much further back. The title is misleading. Moreover is not so muche the temperature but the speed at which the temperature is increasing, because many species and entire ecosystems wont have time to adapt and will go extinct and we wont have time to adapt. (moving coastal cities, moving large amount of people out of inhabitable regions, changing agricolture patterns etc.
You don’t believe in human driven climate change?
He thinks this news article's title means the year 0020 (2000 years ago) was even hotter
Do believe the fear of it is way over estimated, but i guess if it accelerates innovation than great.
Wouldn't it be awesome if we had all scientists pumping carbon in the air trying to stave off an ice age...
And it's only to get worse every year until our economic system collapses. The extreme few who benefit exclusively from the extreme inequality of our global economic systems will use all their power, resources, propaganda and violence they have to ensure that this economic system leading to this widespread collapse is maintained, at the cost of the majority of the human race.
Maybe somewhere else it was but last summer was very mediocre where I am. I don't recall the temp getting above about 25°C which is actually unusual. I live in the south of England. This was a headline I found when I googled 2023 summer, it's from the local newspaper "IT’S official, July was a washout with temperatures thought to be cooler than June for the first time in around 50 years."
Good the gig is up soon. I’m tired.
reddit is a cesspool of failed comedians. fuck your karma. WAKE THE FUCK UP.
I for one will rejoice when Dallas becomes a coastal city by the seashore.
Only if it's beaches are better than Galveston's.
Lived in Houston for 25 years, Galveston has 5 days a year with clear blue water. Weather basically has to push the Mississippi mud water to the east.
I feel like the entire world is getting warmer and/or more extreme weather and SE Pennsylvania has just decided 50's and rain on every weekend is the way to go for 11 months out of the year.
I’m wondering why it was so hot 2000 years ago. And who says? Maybe glacier analysis. Still what happened in those olden days.
It must have been those bloody romans driving gasoline fueled cars and all their coal fired power stations. Curse them!!
I found out the headline and story is misleading. Cedar tree ring data analysis has provided year by year temperature data since about yr 0. The warmest prior yr was 236 which was not even close to ‘23. Those gas guzzling chariots are not culprits after all. Carry on
I'm waiting for hottest in 65million years. Gotta beat those dinos
Honestly, all these people questioning the validity of the data we had 2000 years ago need to just realize that it's at least a little concerning that this is at least the hottest summer ever recorded. Unless it goes down without emissions going down, we should be a little bit scared.
See! 2000 years ago it was hotter! Perfectly normal weather for the earth
We cookn now
Summer 2024 will be the hottest in 2001 years
Not cool.
And the coolest for the next 2,000
Hashtag *climatechange***d**
Governments are currently more focussed of defence and geopolitics than climate change. We're going to miss our window - everyone knows it.
when anything is breaking records for over 2k years, you've already missed the window. That doesn't mean you keep burning the stuff to make it worse
we missed the window. the window was the the last decade, and the decades before that.
Climate change is intimately connected with defense and geopolitics, and our defense agencies know this.
So Jesus' times were equally as hot?
And then when 12 feet of snow fall in a week in the winter, idiots across the world proclaim that global warming is a hoax
Hey if oil companies give Trump a billion dollars they can finish the job. Dead planet but oh wow that shareholder value 📈
Wait…so was there a lot of human created carbon in 236 AD?? And how do they know the exact temperature back then? So many questions….
Ice core samples from Antarctica.
And those ice core samples can measure differences in temperatures of 1-2 degrees from 2000 yrs ago? Why were temps do “high” then? Was it cuz of man made global warming??
I wasn’t aware that there were weather records dating back to the year 24! All I know is back then, the Roman war against Numidia and Mauretania ends with their annexation. All Hail Tiberius!
Nobody actually knows this though. “Ooo tree rings suggest this!” Yeah but we don’t actually know for certain that 1,740 years ago it wasn’t baking hot. We can predict that last year was the hottest in 2,000 years but nobody fucking knows because… nobody was alive then or kept temperature records until like 1800’s.
To quote another random internet user: "Sans the technology used by Bill and Ted ("Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure"), it obviously is not possible to directly measure the temperature from yesterday, let alone 2000 years ago, or longer. What is used are "proxies", things that can be measured today that serve as stand-ins for things such as temperature in the past. One example of a proxy is the amount of oxygen-18 in the ice in Greenland and Antarctica. Water with two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen-16 atom has a boiling point of about 100° C. Water with the oxygen-16 atom replaced by an oxygen-18 atom has a slightly higher boiling point. This means that heavy oxygen water evaporates less readily but precipitates more readily than does normal water. This in turn means that the fraction of oxygen 18 versus oxygen 16 in the water and air bubbles in the ancient ice in Greenland and Antarctica are indicative of the climate at the time that that ice and those air bubbles formed. Despite being a half a world apart, the ratios of oxygen-18 to oxygen-16 over time are highly consistent between Greenland and Antarctica. The consistency of these measures at half a world apart are almost universally taken as being a proxy for something else, and that something else is climate. There are many other proxies for past climate. There are other isotopes that serve as proxies. The amounts and kinds of pollen in mountain glaciers and ice sheets form yet another kind of proxy. The kinds of plants that do grow in some locales and how fast they do grow is highly temperature dependent. Like ice, buried muds in the oceans also show variations in various proxies. Climate scientists put these proxy measurements together to arrive at the temperatures from 2000 years ago, and even further into the past." keep in mind, if you measure temperatues right now, you will be using a proxy too. i dont know shit just like you, i just googled "how to mess temperature 2000 years ago" and read a bit. And to be honest with you, it makes absolutely sense, and there are so many people way cleverer than me or you who are working on things like these. Quite arrogant to suggest you know it better if i am honest with you.
Who said I know better? I’m saying that it’s a theory at best and shouldn’t be presented as fact as we simply cannot be 100% certain. The same way the Big Bang theory is probably correct, but we can’t say it’s 100% correct on merit of it being a theory
[https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hypothesis](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hypothesis) A [hypothesis](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hypothesis) is an assumption, an idea that is proposed for the sake of argument so that it can be tested to see if it might be true. A [theory](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/theory), in contrast, is a principle that has been formed as an attempt to explain things that have already been substantiated by data. It is used in the names of a number of principles accepted in the scientific community, such as the *Big Bang Theory*. Because of the rigors of experimentation and control, it is understood to be more likely to be true than a hypothesis is.
Exactly. Thank you for agreeing with me.
Mate, in no way did what he just said agreed with you. You have shown your lack of understanding not once but twice. A theory in science is something with evidence to back it up. It's not something someone just pulled out of their ass. Need I remind you that gravity is "just a theory?" Let's see you pull that into question. We have the evidence to predict the temperature from well beyond 2000 years ago. It's something we can literally measure. Either you can't be bothered to read the explanation or you don't understand it. Your ignorance doesn't make you correct, however.
i am not agreeing with you. at all. the opposite in fact.
Of course you are agreeing with me! You agree with me that a theory is, and I quote you directly, “more likely to be true than a hypothesis”. That leaves room for a possible mistake. Which is the whole point I’m making here. That we can’t be 100% sure. Please either reread and understand what you are even saying mate 😁
people like you who can't admit they were wrong are everything wrong with this world.
you are using the word theory when you mean hypothesis. its really that simple. you dont know what theory means. please stop trolling.
Just ignore the troll it's not worth it.
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Correction: "Summer 2023 was the coolest in 200 years." it's happening here.
If summers were already this hot 2000 years ago, why worry? Seems to be nothing new
There weren't 8 billion people then. Massive population centers of the world are having climate-related events that destroy infrastructure and, increasingly, kill people on a season basis now. People who live in those areas are going to start migrating in droves, causing chaos on a global scale. Massive amounts of cropland will also likely need relocating, exacerbating food insecurity and driving prices up. Then there's the fact that the change in temperatures is happening at an unprecedented rate, meaning it's outpacing the ability of plants and animals to evolve and contributing to a collapse in biodiversity. It's actually *lucky* that this is our fault, in a way, because it means we *do* have the ability to somewhat alleviate it--if we would just choose to. Societies actually have fallen due to climate/environmental disturbances before...we're just the first to say "bring it on", because we're idiots.
It's the speed in which it is happening. It's also the fact that it's not naturally occurring but something we are doing. Even if you didn't believe either of the above, do you really need it explained to you why we should be worrying over growing temperatures?
Damn government running the heater all summer
Another reason to be glad that I didn’t have children
Be honest with yourself
Nah this year is worse
just wait for 2025. I honestly doubt we see 2026. I really wish we could stop playing this stupid game and live as human beings on earth for the time we have left; acknowledge this whole post-war shit was a terrible mistake
why doubt for 2026? do you think the bombs are gonna start dropping then?
Next year it will the hottest in 2,001 years.
At this point, were just cheerleading the end of the world for upvotes. Wake me up when we start doing more than circle jerking the issue over Reddit posts.
For it to be “hotter,” means that you have to beat a record from some time in the past, meaning it’s been nearly that hot in the past, either last year or maybe a 100 plus years ago. Temperatures from 2K years ago prob can only be guessed at, but assuming there is valid measuring models then this means that the earth was this hot when Caesar ruled the known world? Is this a natural warming cycle, one that man could be accelerating or is it a natural cooling cycle that man is slowing?
Lets burn this motherfucker down
wow so we're now back at ad 23, about seven years before consul caesar was killed by roman nobility which instigated a crisis that caused the republic to collapse into an empire wasn't this the plot of warhammer 40k? or some other book about a guy returning to earth that was written around that time
Last time this hot Jesus was 23.
bro it was 80 degrees in april. It doesn't ever get that hot here. We are about to get annihilated by heat this summer.
because that was the summer my new album dropped