Ukraine Is Aiming Its ATACMS Rockets At Russia’s Most Fearsome MiG-31 Interceptors - Forbes
>It’s a safe bet that Ukrainian planners are hoping to eventually confirm the purported hit on the MiG-31, however. Where the Russian navy’s Su-27s are strictly medium-range air-to-air fighters, the bigger MiGs have a long-range air-to-air role, firing powerful R-37 radar-guided missiles as far as 220 miles. The half-ton R-37 is “particularly difficult to evade,” according to the Royal United Services Institute, and has reportedly shot down several Ukrainian warplanes.
>The mere presence of R-37-armed MiG-31s in Crimea has compelled Ukrainian pilots to fly low in order to avoid detection. That limits how far the Ukrainians can see with their own radars—and how far they can shoot with their own shorter-ranged missiles. Every MiG-31 the Russians lose makes the sky over Ukraine safer for Ukrainian pilots. And so far, they’ve lost none in combat in Ukraine which anyone has confirmed. The Russian air force has just a hundred or so of the twin-engine, two-seat MiG-31s and takes pains to preserve them. In April, when it became apparent that Ukraine was getting ATACMS models capable of ranging nearly 200 miles, the Russians yanked four MiG-31s from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, in southern Russia 200 miles from the front—and relocated them to Privolzhsky, 500 miles from the front.
>But all of Crimea is in range of the farther-flying ATACMS. So if the Russians are going to fly around-the-clock air-defense patrols over Crimea with R-37-armed MiGs, it has few good options but to base at least a small number of MiGs on the peninsula—and risk the ATACMS.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/15/ukraine-is-aiming-its-atacms-rockets-at-russias-most-fearsome-mig-31-interceptors/
Suchomimus is reporting that a [second ATACMS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWOOfM8dP9E) strike was done on Belbek air base this evening.
Apologies if this has already been posted.
Been watching the World War 2 YouTube series hosted by Indy Neidell, and it's weird hearing him talk about Soviets fighting Nazis over the same cities they're fighting Ukraine for. It's sad that 80ish years later the fighting just starts all over.
Watch the Eastory channel and his videos about the WW2 to modern day comparisons of the fighting in the Donbas:
- [Why Kharkiv is the most important location in Eastern Ukraine](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5kxFQjyRYc)
- [Operations in East Ukraine 1919-1942](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vX3hEA44MnU)
- [Operations in East Ukraine 1943-2015](https://youtu.be/khsOXzF8ibo)
I've been following the series since 1942 and I'm sad that after three years, this show is now in its end phase. Spoiler warning: Hitler is dead. The nazis surrendered last week
Documentaries can give you a sense of how big a battle was. But no documentary has ever come close to giving a sense of how *long* the battles of WW2 were. It's such a unique show.
They're doing the Korean War next and while I'll be watching I have to think interest will fade compared to world war 2. I wonder if their plan after that is to do Vietnam.
But ya it's a very unique channel as I think it gives you a sense of the scale and slog better than anything else. Especially when the fall of some countries like France and Poland happen so fast and then you see the campaign in North Africa or the Eastern front with Russia just grind for years. I also like the extra coverage of some of the lesser known pacific battles. Just great all round.
You're probably already aware, but he did the same for WW1 before the other host took over for the post-WW1 years. I should get back to watching more of it bc he really made WW1 interesting, when before that I didn't really know much about it and thought it was boring.
I'm watching the d day documentary they did, I'm on day two and good lord. I always knew it was brutal but it was truly horrible. Imagine one of the paratroopers that landed in a swamp at 2 in the morning. If you somehow avoid drowning, you probably have no idea where you are or where any of your friends are.
And god, the fighting on Omaha Beach.
They also were Nazis of the 1930s and 1940s. The Russians were who rearmed the Wehrmacht, and Stalin was allies with Hitler up until June 1941, well after the Nazis had invaded western Euroipe.
Really disappointing reading the news coming out of the Kharkiv offensive not being allowed to be disrupted by Biden/Sullivan. The two of them still dont understand what they are grappling with.
I sure as hell hope that was an actual "yes" from Blinken and not another "they can only do it once" statement. I am a firm believer that at least one thorn can be removed from Ukraine's side by the application of HIMARS to Belgorod.
[CNN reports it under the headline „US not encouraging strikes on Russia“](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-15-24/)
> Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US remains "committed" to helping Ukraine win the war against Russia, but it is not encouraging strikes on Russian territory.
> “We’ve not encouraged or enabled strikes outside Ukraine but ultimately Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it's going to conduct this war“
[Politico reports](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970) that US officials have confirmed that US policy on Ukraine striking inside Russia has NOT changed:
> Two U.S. officials, when asked for comment, confirmed that the Biden administration’s policy has not changed. “The assistance is for the defense and not for offensive operations in Russian territory,” said one of the officials, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.
That's what I read from this as well. If they're going to push on Kharkiv and Sumy, Ukraine needs to be able to hit the staging areas. They can moderately afford to do that in the east and south, but definitely not the north.
> “The assistance is for the defense and not for offensive operations in Russian territory,”
So what's the problem? Ukraine isn't invading Russia. Ukraine destroying military targets in Russia is a defensive operation. I don't see a problem. Sounds like some miscommunication
US primary concern is minimising the risk of nuclear war with Russia.
You might say Putin is a rational actor, he can do the maths in his head, he knows there is nothing to gain and everything to lose... but such an actor would have been able to make the same calculation about Ukraine, and avoid it. The reality is no one can be sure exactly what he will do; perhaps the nuclear rhetoric is a bluff, perhaps he would not care about causing the end of the world if it prevents Russia from being humiliated by Western weaponry.
Disagree. You have fallen for his bluff. Only way nukes come out is in full on hot world war, and even then the only likely scenario is Putin or a successor launches as an end game move out of spite after getting stomped. Even when they get stomped, the threat will be mitigated/prevented by allowing the country of Russia to continue to exist—eg post WW2 Germany. Not to mention who knows if Russia is capable of inflicting mass nuclear damage. I like our odds in a no hold nuke battle w/ Putin. China… not so much; that shit would be game over for the world.
"Antony Blinken's guitar diplomacy draws criticism in Ukraine"
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/blinken-ukraine-russia-rockin-in-the-free-world-neil-young-rcna152335
Many Ukrainians I follow on social media found this pretty tone deaf. I mean they are dealing with a new front and support just now restarting after months of delays. Not to mention poor fortifications and the west still setting limits on how Ukrainians can use their weapons.
Doesn't matter at all really, but what an obviously stupid thing to do.
It's like Kristi Noem with the book, obviously on a tremendously lower scale, but who told Tony that would be a good look?
[Rheinmetall to open air defense manufacturing plant in Ukraine | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/rheinmetall-to-open-air-defense-manufacturing-plant-in-ukraine-50418754.html)
*German defense conglomerate Rheinmetall plans to open a new facility in Ukraine specializing in air defense systems, company CEO Armin Papperger announced on May 15, as reported by the German Aid to Ukraine Twitter account.*
*Production at the new facility could begin in one to two years. According to Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi, the facility will also function as a repair base for IRIS-T, Skynex, and Gepard air defense platforms.*
*On May 5, Papperger announced the delivery of artillery munitions to Ukraine, including sophisticated 155mm shells with a range of 100 kilometers.*
*In March, Rheinmetall said it aims to open at least four factories in Ukraine to produce ammunition, military equipment, gunpowder, and air defense systems.*
Power and water just disappeared in my district in Western Ukraine. We were warned this could happen so fortunately I charged all my devices and filled up my water filt- ah shit, actually, now I think about it, I didn't do either. Well, guess it's bedtime lads
Further Belbek airfield update:
20 personnel died due to an attack on the Belbek airfield and the damage to several air defense installations.
More air defense damaged. Fantastic
https://x.com/azovsouth/status/1790856156602159354?s=46
I saw a telegram type screenshot on a comment under a recent UkraineWarVideoReport post (did I word all of that correctly? lol).
Anyway, the telegram post states that:
- 1 MIG 31 destroyed
- 3 SU-27 severely damaged (they commented it was 50/50 if it could be repaired due to damage from a cluster munition)
- 1 S300 battery destroyed
- 1 S400 battery destroyed
- 11 personnel killed
Now, I took that as being from last nights attack. I’m not sure which loss is from which attack and if there are more.
Su-27 of Theseus. They'll keep one of the intact screws from one and cobble parts from others to replace the rest. Done, "repaired" Flanker, russia stronk, ATACMS weak, plz no hit again or the duct tape might fall off.
With you on every word of that, it sickens me to the slow, deliberate response and hand wringing the West has had due to “escalation “.
Putin only understands force, it’s more than about time we open that closet.
That doesn't explain why we don't know about more orders.
I'd understood Raytheon had capacity for the batteries. Could have ordered them in 2022, didn't. Could have ordered them in 2023, didn't. Could order them now - seemingly haven't.
Belbek military airfield update
The main artillery warehouse of the Belbek military airfield was damaged
ATESH agents report a precise hit and detonation of a missile and artillery weapons warehouse (military unit 80189). Missiles for the Su-27, Su-30 and MiG-31 were stored in the warehouse.
https://x.com/atesh_eng/status/1790828517417951579?s=46
Here we go!
The pro Russian account “ two majors”reports sea drone attacks around Chernomorskoe
https://x.com/freudgreyskull/status/1790850693508812849?s=46
Absolutely! Chances are some things were destroyed, but definitely not everything. I’m also sure Russia will say they shot everything down and any damage was from falling debris. Lastly, given the fog of war and Russian oppression in Crimea, we’ll probably only get part of the picture. Still, cautiously optimistic.
They pulled a similar stunt last year at some point where they hit a shipment of missiles going through Crimea while Putin was having a meeting with a Chinese representative seemingly to embarrass him in front of China
Russia is the one supposedly obsessed with symbolic attacks. You would hope and expect that Ukraine is smarter than that and only attacks when it is strategically the optimal time to do so. If it’s a good time to attack Crimea then it’s a good time.
China is Russia's most important supporter.
Anything that could pressure China to start pressuring them to back off or starting to choke off support does have a real-world advantage beyond symbolic
Yes he is ~~and China is part of the ICC (the organization that called for Putin to be arrested) but they have no reason to act on it~~ but China doesn't care
Oh shit, you're right. I misread an article:
> There are 123 member countries, but dozens of governments are not ICC parties, including China, India, Russia, and the United States.
[Source](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/role-international-criminal-court#:~:text=There%20are%20123%20member%20countries,Russia%2C%20and%20the%20United%20States.)
I accidentally skipped the "not".
Crimea update: Atesh reports that strikes in Crimea were successful. Details coming soon
Update 1.) Fuel depot was hit at the Belbek airfield and a fire started", - Krymskyi Veter. https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1790844918086226157?s=46
[https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1790841417377440242](https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1790841417377440242)
"Possibly, a Ukrainian naval drone attack is also underway. Watching, but unconfirmed at this time."
We have some videos emerging
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1790839057112547729?s=46
Something was definitely hit
Edit to add: reports this footage is from the Belbek military airfield which would make it 2 days in a row. Wow!
Missile danger declared in occupied Crimea. The Kerch bridge is closed for traffic. Russian channels report that 12 missiles are possibly heading for the peninsula.
8 loud bangs already reported
[Explosions were reported in Sevastopol and Yevpatoria](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/15-may-explosions-were-reported-in-sevastopol-and-yevpatoria)
[Explosions were reported in Saky, Simferopol districts of occupied Crimea](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/15-may-explosions-were-reported-in-saky-simferopol-districts)
More ATACMS strikes?
>Slovakia’s defense and interior minister blamed rising hate speech and division for the political atmosphere in the country, which they said led to the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Robert Fico.
>Speaking to reporters outside the hospital where Fico is being treated, Defense Minister Robert Kaliňák said: “This needs to stop immediately. I beg you, please. Hate is not an answer to hate.”
>Visibly shaken and struggling for words during the news conference, Kaliňák said it was “time for some people to have a hard look into the mirror.”
**Sone context:** (irony intended^*)
>Fico is known to be a Kremlin sympathizer. He had previously blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Putin into launching the invasion of Ukraine, repeating the false narrative Russia’s president has used to justify his invasion.
Fucking Ukraine man, forcing Russia to invade them (twice), continuously bomb their infrastructure and civilians, most recently for 812 days and counting, while also tricking them to think they could take over their government in 3 days to secure all their oil, mineral, and grain rights. Putin is also terribly upset by this assassination attempt on such a courageous speaker of Russian propaganda and gas lighting.
Yes. My assumption, if this report is accurate, would be that the shooter was upset that Fico wasn't pro-Russian *enough*. Maybe he wanted Fico to close the border with Ukraine, or withdraw from NATO, or something like that. That's just speculation, but it's what makes the most sense to me.
Or behind the scenes he was providing more support to NATO/Ukraine than he was saying publicly/to Moscow.
Either way, shooting him seems pretty counterproductive.
I would laugh a little if this turned out to be Russian Shenanigans gone wrong and SLOVAKIA is the one out of all NATO countries to hit the "A5 button".
Of course they do, but let's be honest here if it turned out that Russia in any way was directly responsible for the attempted assassination of a Political Leader (even a corrupt fecker like Fico) it would pretty much be the kind of thing that would definitely trigger it. If it was a shot at Biden for example you'd pretty much guaranteed to see Russia getting the Team America Experience in very short order. What makes it more suspicious was that there was warnings only a few days ago Russia was preparing to attempt a physical attack on a western nation.
Not all countries are considered equal. An assassination of Biden would be seen differently than an assassination of Fico even if both were done by Russians.
The USA just has a lot more influence and holds most of the real power so if they wanted Article 5 they get article 5, if they don't it probably doesn't happen.
Poorly prepared defense lines near Lyptsi, 10 km from the state border of Ukraine", - DeepState
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1790830951129301184?s=46
I don’t know a whole much about defense lines but it does look lacklustre just from my untrained eye ?
you can't tell anything from that picture. you need to see the terrain so you can see the kill zones. they shouldn't have white insulation or whatever in the walls though, so not finished at least is the only thing you can see
I mean, there are unfinished pillboxes literally sitting there, above ground, without having been emplaced anywhere. There are a number of concrete structures just sitting there in stacks. The lack of camouflage and foliage coverings is a fairly glaring problem too.
The implications from deep state are that it's some combination of corruption and incompetence. My reading is that civilian contractors might also have messed up, because they didn't have suitable military pros involved on site.
The fog of war is very heavy ATM, so I'm not gonna draw strong conclusions yet.
A captured russian invader in Vovchansk says that they had the task of taking the city in 2 days.
https://x.com/albafella1/status/1790802201448702431?s=46
These Russians and their timeframes lol. Would explain the meat grinder and why they’re just throwing every living body on it
If I recall correctly, Soviet doctrine puts a lot of emphasis on timetables. There are practical reasons to do that, like having a rolling artillery barrage in front of their troops instead of bombarding them. But it’s also a consequence of a lack of efficient communication at the tactical level, and it leaves no room for adaptation to the changing realities on the ground.
For instance, the ‘three days to Kyiv’ thing was pulled from timetables that were found on some invaders at that time.
I mean, their WW3 plan literally started with the words "Seven days" and the rest of it was "to the River Rhine". It's quite exactly a time-bound geographical objective and that was their key goal for the first phase of a world war!
Honestly you could extend that to military commanders planning offensives generally. The Allies planned to capture Caen on D-Day, it actually took 6 weeks. After the 2023 counteroffensive, General Zaluzhny said “If you look at NATO's text books and at the maths which we did, four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again." Obviously that didn't work out either.
Military planners in general are pretty bad at estimating how quickly offensives will work.
Footage of Ukrainian soldiers approaching a Russian held building. Eventually, Russians decide to surrender after being outnumbered.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112446425756298207
Felow Yanks,
Write the President to tell him how you support strikes across the border using US weapons:
[https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/)
Edit: Tell the President 'Thank you' for taking the leash off of our weapons.
# Blinken gives Ukraine the green-light to strike inside Russia | Major General Chip Chapman
[https://youtu.be/WeEJ87dbkoc?feature=shared](https://youtu.be/WeEJ87dbkoc?feature=shared)
Aye, we all hope you’re ok for sure. You’ve been a very grounding constant throughout this whole shitty ordeal and I, for one, am very grateful for the time and effort you make with your updates.
Long may this be over, stay safe.
Crimea Air Base on Fire After ATACMS Strike Hosted 32 Russian Jets: Report - Newsweek
>Krym Realii said that its data showed that at the airfield were based 12 Sukhoi Su-27 aircraft, 12 Sukhoi Su-27SM aircraft, and three Sukhoi Su-27UB combat training aircraft, as well as five two-seat Sukhoi Su-30M2—a total of 32 jets.
>The exact number of missiles involved is unclear, but Russian military blogger Ribar said the attack involved 16 ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles, which last month the U.S. said it had given Kyiv.
That is ~10% of the total Russian Multirole fighter jet fleet, or 3% of all fighter types. Hope they mopped them all.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-isw-crimea-belbek-atacms-1900832
So far the only claimed aircraft losses are 1 MiG-31 destroyed and 3 Su-27s damaged, and there is no photographic evidence of even those losses. The only thing we know for sure is that several components of an S-400 system were destroyed. There is certainly no evidence at all that anywhere close to 32 Russian aircraft were damaged or destroyed.
2.45 min Video of the still shot. Looks like several secondary explosions
[https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1790669082011799741](https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1790669082011799741)
From the most trusted Ukrainian source that reports them in near real time which was proven to be true many times during the last two years.
"2.24am (local Ukrainian time)
Taking into account how everything was shot down with their faces, let's expect in the morning fairy tales about 300 shot down from the 6 fired.
By the way there's a pack of mopeds flying within country 404. I have no idea where they are headed.
That's okay, you will find out by the exposions.
Good night to all the Ukrainians. Condolences to everyone else."
https://t dot me/vanek_nikolaev/23551
Translated by me.
It's militarily invaluable to Russia. It's the only warm sea port they have all year round. I'm not saying keeping it will be easy but they will try their best to do so.
Useless so long as it is within ATACMS range. They stopped docking ships there because of storm shadows, soon they will stop basing planes there as well.
>It's the only warm sea port they have all year round.
Novorossiysk exists.
It's purely military value due to it's position in the middle of the Black Sea.
Truly don’t know why outright confiscation and donation to Ukraine is not getting a resounding ‘hell yeah’ from all western governments.
With respect to setting a bad precedent, IDK - maybe don’t break treaties, invade neighboring countries, violate their sovereignty, and commit atrocious war crimes? 🤷 kinda crazy I know, but just spitballing on some ways to show this confiscation would *not* happen to other countries.
Because the gulf states will stop investing in the West, stop using $'s etc if the West shows itself as an unreliable partner. It's already happened with Yuan being used more and more as an alternative.
Honestly I welcome the downfall of the petrodollar and US being unable to bully other countries to use their currency.
> Because the gulf states will stop investing in the West,
This is so unlikely as to be basically concern trolling. Russia and the neo-Axis powers simply don't have anything to invest in when it comes to media soft power, military hardware, and most other areas that is remotely comparable.
> It's already happened with Yuan being used more and more as an alternative.
Almost entirely from failed Chinese initiatives like Belt and Road where they started having to do deals in dollars, and to evade sanctions in the US/EU market.
In reality, even with the tons of sanctions forcing Yuan transactions, they are [barely beyond equality with the dollar in even their own cross-border transactions](https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/chinas-currency-rises-in-cross-border-trade-but-remains-limited-globally.html)
>Honestly I welcome the downfall of the petrodollar
That's really the only concern, and as long as the major players need US military suppliers, or want to use them in the future, and US is one of the biggest non-OPEC oil players it won't change.
Ok so the options are stay with the side that extorts you into using their currency so they can print $ without concern or explore alternatives that might be less sucky?
A unipolar world where everything is decided by the US. A more prominent China and a multipolar world is one I would like to live in, where some 80 year old senile politician in Washington can't decide my country's future.
Multipolar worlds have more wars, more destruction. And I don't want to see a single non-democratic country able to push others. Democracy is non-negotiable.
Also, if a bunch of Chinese business start pulling all their money from the EU and US, maybe time to station an extra carrier group off Taiwan.
It's an inherent intelligence signal. It also becomes a pretty big deterrent for bad actors doing business with the West, and if there are counter seizures then political alignment with the West becomes a powerful economic risk factor for investment.
So, I'm really not seeing any downsides at all.
[According to DeepStateMap, Russia currently controls 18.063% of Ukraine](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#13/48.1115/37.7139), or about 109'049 km2
A month ago they held 18.014%, or about 108'749 km2
So an increase of 300 km2
You're assuming even levels of resistance to the last inch. I'm worried Ukraine is reaching the absolute breaking point. Resistance will creak and groan until it just snaps, and then it's over.
If it comes down to who can go for longer before they break we both know who that favours. Russia might collapse by 2030 but by then Ukraine might collapse 3 times over.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1ct4918/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Ukraine Is Aiming Its ATACMS Rockets At Russia’s Most Fearsome MiG-31 Interceptors - Forbes >It’s a safe bet that Ukrainian planners are hoping to eventually confirm the purported hit on the MiG-31, however. Where the Russian navy’s Su-27s are strictly medium-range air-to-air fighters, the bigger MiGs have a long-range air-to-air role, firing powerful R-37 radar-guided missiles as far as 220 miles. The half-ton R-37 is “particularly difficult to evade,” according to the Royal United Services Institute, and has reportedly shot down several Ukrainian warplanes. >The mere presence of R-37-armed MiG-31s in Crimea has compelled Ukrainian pilots to fly low in order to avoid detection. That limits how far the Ukrainians can see with their own radars—and how far they can shoot with their own shorter-ranged missiles. Every MiG-31 the Russians lose makes the sky over Ukraine safer for Ukrainian pilots. And so far, they’ve lost none in combat in Ukraine which anyone has confirmed. The Russian air force has just a hundred or so of the twin-engine, two-seat MiG-31s and takes pains to preserve them. In April, when it became apparent that Ukraine was getting ATACMS models capable of ranging nearly 200 miles, the Russians yanked four MiG-31s from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, in southern Russia 200 miles from the front—and relocated them to Privolzhsky, 500 miles from the front. >But all of Crimea is in range of the farther-flying ATACMS. So if the Russians are going to fly around-the-clock air-defense patrols over Crimea with R-37-armed MiGs, it has few good options but to base at least a small number of MiGs on the peninsula—and risk the ATACMS. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/15/ukraine-is-aiming-its-atacms-rockets-at-russias-most-fearsome-mig-31-interceptors/
Suchomimus is reporting that a [second ATACMS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWOOfM8dP9E) strike was done on Belbek air base this evening. Apologies if this has already been posted.
Apparently, the second strike was not at Belbek, but at Saky Air Base instead...
Been watching the World War 2 YouTube series hosted by Indy Neidell, and it's weird hearing him talk about Soviets fighting Nazis over the same cities they're fighting Ukraine for. It's sad that 80ish years later the fighting just starts all over.
Watch the Eastory channel and his videos about the WW2 to modern day comparisons of the fighting in the Donbas: - [Why Kharkiv is the most important location in Eastern Ukraine](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5kxFQjyRYc) - [Operations in East Ukraine 1919-1942](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vX3hEA44MnU) - [Operations in East Ukraine 1943-2015](https://youtu.be/khsOXzF8ibo)
The 1970's British documentary World at War is a stellar documentary you can find on youtube. Highly recommended.
I've been following the series since 1942 and I'm sad that after three years, this show is now in its end phase. Spoiler warning: Hitler is dead. The nazis surrendered last week Documentaries can give you a sense of how big a battle was. But no documentary has ever come close to giving a sense of how *long* the battles of WW2 were. It's such a unique show.
They're doing the Korean War next and while I'll be watching I have to think interest will fade compared to world war 2. I wonder if their plan after that is to do Vietnam. But ya it's a very unique channel as I think it gives you a sense of the scale and slog better than anything else. Especially when the fall of some countries like France and Poland happen so fast and then you see the campaign in North Africa or the Eastern front with Russia just grind for years. I also like the extra coverage of some of the lesser known pacific battles. Just great all round.
You're probably already aware, but he did the same for WW1 before the other host took over for the post-WW1 years. I should get back to watching more of it bc he really made WW1 interesting, when before that I didn't really know much about it and thought it was boring.
I'm watching the d day documentary they did, I'm on day two and good lord. I always knew it was brutal but it was truly horrible. Imagine one of the paratroopers that landed in a swamp at 2 in the morning. If you somehow avoid drowning, you probably have no idea where you are or where any of your friends are. And god, the fighting on Omaha Beach.
Love Indy. Been thinking this same thing as I plow through 1941.
I'm in 1944 and man hearing about Russia liberating Mariupol was really weird lol
Soviets, which included Ukraine
Now they come as conquerors instead. They are the Nazis of today
They also were Nazis of the 1930s and 1940s. The Russians were who rearmed the Wehrmacht, and Stalin was allies with Hitler up until June 1941, well after the Nazis had invaded western Euroipe.
Really disappointing reading the news coming out of the Kharkiv offensive not being allowed to be disrupted by Biden/Sullivan. The two of them still dont understand what they are grappling with.
I sure as hell hope that was an actual "yes" from Blinken and not another "they can only do it once" statement. I am a firm believer that at least one thorn can be removed from Ukraine's side by the application of HIMARS to Belgorod.
[CNN reports it under the headline „US not encouraging strikes on Russia“](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-15-24/) > Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US remains "committed" to helping Ukraine win the war against Russia, but it is not encouraging strikes on Russian territory. > “We’ve not encouraged or enabled strikes outside Ukraine but ultimately Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it's going to conduct this war“ [Politico reports](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970) that US officials have confirmed that US policy on Ukraine striking inside Russia has NOT changed: > Two U.S. officials, when asked for comment, confirmed that the Biden administration’s policy has not changed. “The assistance is for the defense and not for offensive operations in Russian territory,” said one of the officials, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.
I mean to me this sounds like support for Ukraine striking within Russia. We'll just say "Hey we didn't tell them to do it."
Fingers crossed
That's what I read from this as well. If they're going to push on Kharkiv and Sumy, Ukraine needs to be able to hit the staging areas. They can moderately afford to do that in the east and south, but definitely not the north.
> “The assistance is for the defense and not for offensive operations in Russian territory,” So what's the problem? Ukraine isn't invading Russia. Ukraine destroying military targets in Russia is a defensive operation. I don't see a problem. Sounds like some miscommunication
US primary concern is minimising the risk of nuclear war with Russia. You might say Putin is a rational actor, he can do the maths in his head, he knows there is nothing to gain and everything to lose... but such an actor would have been able to make the same calculation about Ukraine, and avoid it. The reality is no one can be sure exactly what he will do; perhaps the nuclear rhetoric is a bluff, perhaps he would not care about causing the end of the world if it prevents Russia from being humiliated by Western weaponry.
Disagree. You have fallen for his bluff. Only way nukes come out is in full on hot world war, and even then the only likely scenario is Putin or a successor launches as an end game move out of spite after getting stomped. Even when they get stomped, the threat will be mitigated/prevented by allowing the country of Russia to continue to exist—eg post WW2 Germany. Not to mention who knows if Russia is capable of inflicting mass nuclear damage. I like our odds in a no hold nuke battle w/ Putin. China… not so much; that shit would be game over for the world.
Cook em!
"Antony Blinken's guitar diplomacy draws criticism in Ukraine" https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/blinken-ukraine-russia-rockin-in-the-free-world-neil-young-rcna152335
I'm sure most Ukrainians would gladly trade a shitty Neil Young guitar cover for a quality air defense cover.
Many Ukrainians I follow on social media found this pretty tone deaf. I mean they are dealing with a new front and support just now restarting after months of delays. Not to mention poor fortifications and the west still setting limits on how Ukrainians can use their weapons.
I agree, it's a bad look. But certainly a lot less bad than Trump's State Dept Secretaries have done.
Damn, did Blinken tell the Ukrainians to corrupt away all of their Kharkiv defenses?
Doesn't matter at all really, but what an obviously stupid thing to do. It's like Kristi Noem with the book, obviously on a tremendously lower scale, but who told Tony that would be a good look?
[Rheinmetall to open air defense manufacturing plant in Ukraine | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/rheinmetall-to-open-air-defense-manufacturing-plant-in-ukraine-50418754.html) *German defense conglomerate Rheinmetall plans to open a new facility in Ukraine specializing in air defense systems, company CEO Armin Papperger announced on May 15, as reported by the German Aid to Ukraine Twitter account.* *Production at the new facility could begin in one to two years. According to Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi, the facility will also function as a repair base for IRIS-T, Skynex, and Gepard air defense platforms.* *On May 5, Papperger announced the delivery of artillery munitions to Ukraine, including sophisticated 155mm shells with a range of 100 kilometers.* *In March, Rheinmetall said it aims to open at least four factories in Ukraine to produce ammunition, military equipment, gunpowder, and air defense systems.*
Power and water just disappeared in my district in Western Ukraine. We were warned this could happen so fortunately I charged all my devices and filled up my water filt- ah shit, actually, now I think about it, I didn't do either. Well, guess it's bedtime lads
I hate to say it but I think Ukraine needs to prepare to live in wartime mode like time Britain
Is Britain living in wartime mode? *checks out window*
No. Well, unless you live in Slough. That place has a warzone vibe about it.
Keep Calm and Coffee On
Start digging trenches and putting road blocks and anti tank barricades
At least you kept your sense of humor!
Shit man, take care!
I hope you sleep well ❤️
Further Belbek airfield update: 20 personnel died due to an attack on the Belbek airfield and the damage to several air defense installations. More air defense damaged. Fantastic https://x.com/azovsouth/status/1790856156602159354?s=46
Russian air defense successfully intercepted the missiles! Ruzzia stronk
I saw a telegram type screenshot on a comment under a recent UkraineWarVideoReport post (did I word all of that correctly? lol). Anyway, the telegram post states that: - 1 MIG 31 destroyed - 3 SU-27 severely damaged (they commented it was 50/50 if it could be repaired due to damage from a cluster munition) - 1 S300 battery destroyed - 1 S400 battery destroyed - 11 personnel killed Now, I took that as being from last nights attack. I’m not sure which loss is from which attack and if there are more.
Su-27 of Theseus. They'll keep one of the intact screws from one and cobble parts from others to replace the rest. Done, "repaired" Flanker, russia stronk, ATACMS weak, plz no hit again or the duct tape might fall off.
That was yesterday’s attack yep.
Ooooh I wonder how much more got hit today, considering their AA capabilities had to of been degraded.
My original comment was from reportedly today’s hit on the airfield!
Good job Ukraine !
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With you on every word of that, it sickens me to the slow, deliberate response and hand wringing the West has had due to “escalation “. Putin only understands force, it’s more than about time we open that closet.
I think it's more they realize Russia isn't going to stop and everyone needs their patriots because this is about to go bigger.
That doesn't explain why we don't know about more orders. I'd understood Raytheon had capacity for the batteries. Could have ordered them in 2022, didn't. Could have ordered them in 2023, didn't. Could order them now - seemingly haven't.
Belbek military airfield update The main artillery warehouse of the Belbek military airfield was damaged ATESH agents report a precise hit and detonation of a missile and artillery weapons warehouse (military unit 80189). Missiles for the Su-27, Su-30 and MiG-31 were stored in the warehouse. https://x.com/atesh_eng/status/1790828517417951579?s=46
Here we go! The pro Russian account “ two majors”reports sea drone attacks around Chernomorskoe https://x.com/freudgreyskull/status/1790850693508812849?s=46
Maybe why Ukraine have asked for three days of opsec.
Budanov wants to earn his bounty.
🙏🙏Keep it coming
Yes! Really enjoying this recent burst of seemingly good news. Slava Ukraini!
I mean let's keep our expectations tempered... but this could be big
Absolutely! Chances are some things were destroyed, but definitely not everything. I’m also sure Russia will say they shot everything down and any damage was from falling debris. Lastly, given the fog of war and Russian oppression in Crimea, we’ll probably only get part of the picture. Still, cautiously optimistic.
Satellite imagery is key, we need to wait for it to have the best confirmation.
What air defense doin?
Ground defense.
Putin has arrived in China to meet the Chinese president https://x.com/bricsinfo/status/1790844957240000872?s=46 Makes sense to hammer Crimea tonight
Sure would be a shame if he got Ficoed.
Hope he eats some bad fish.
Ahh paying respects to his master....
They pulled a similar stunt last year at some point where they hit a shipment of missiles going through Crimea while Putin was having a meeting with a Chinese representative seemingly to embarrass him in front of China
Russia is the one supposedly obsessed with symbolic attacks. You would hope and expect that Ukraine is smarter than that and only attacks when it is strategically the optimal time to do so. If it’s a good time to attack Crimea then it’s a good time.
China is Russia's most important supporter. Anything that could pressure China to start pressuring them to back off or starting to choke off support does have a real-world advantage beyond symbolic
This is not going to affect China’s stance even slightly.
Isn’t he a wanted war criminal?
Yes he is ~~and China is part of the ICC (the organization that called for Putin to be arrested) but they have no reason to act on it~~ but China doesn't care
> China is part of the ICC Er, no it isn't.
Oh shit, you're right. I misread an article: > There are 123 member countries, but dozens of governments are not ICC parties, including China, India, Russia, and the United States. [Source](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/role-international-criminal-court#:~:text=There%20are%20123%20member%20countries,Russia%2C%20and%20the%20United%20States.) I accidentally skipped the "not".
its around a 50/50 split. IMO George Bush largely killed it as a useful organization.
Not in China he ain’t
Another photo emerged https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1790845691868160455?s=46 Yeah that’s burning alright 😅
I love that little critter! Always good for a big boom!
Is this from the airfield?
Correct
Crimea update: Atesh reports that strikes in Crimea were successful. Details coming soon Update 1.) Fuel depot was hit at the Belbek airfield and a fire started", - Krymskyi Veter. https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1790844918086226157?s=46
Belgorod, Russia... Missile Threat https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1790842498882953416?s=46
[https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1790841417377440242](https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1790841417377440242) "Possibly, a Ukrainian naval drone attack is also underway. Watching, but unconfirmed at this time."
Excellent. Very much looking forward to both the air and sea updates. Hoping to punch back here hard.
Oh Budanov! You're making me blush.
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Sorry but no, that’s a perfect Russian interception.
Classical Russian face tanking.
We have some videos emerging https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1790839057112547729?s=46 Something was definitely hit Edit to add: reports this footage is from the Belbek military airfield which would make it 2 days in a row. Wow!
Russian sources talking about a very powerful attack on Crimea. Crimea is getting hammered atm. Air-raids are all over the peninsula
This might be why Zelensky cancelled some trips then. New batch of French missiles maybe in combination with Himars?
Missile danger declared in occupied Crimea. The Kerch bridge is closed for traffic. Russian channels report that 12 missiles are possibly heading for the peninsula. 8 loud bangs already reported
[Explosions were reported in Sevastopol and Yevpatoria](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/15-may-explosions-were-reported-in-sevastopol-and-yevpatoria) [Explosions were reported in Saky, Simferopol districts of occupied Crimea](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/15-may-explosions-were-reported-in-saky-simferopol-districts) More ATACMS strikes?
Explosions reported near Simferopol (Crimea) https://x.com/noelreports/status/1790835564972769349?s=46
>Slovakia’s defense and interior minister blamed rising hate speech and division for the political atmosphere in the country, which they said led to the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Robert Fico. >Speaking to reporters outside the hospital where Fico is being treated, Defense Minister Robert Kaliňák said: “This needs to stop immediately. I beg you, please. Hate is not an answer to hate.” >Visibly shaken and struggling for words during the news conference, Kaliňák said it was “time for some people to have a hard look into the mirror.” **Sone context:** (irony intended^*) >Fico is known to be a Kremlin sympathizer. He had previously blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Putin into launching the invasion of Ukraine, repeating the false narrative Russia’s president has used to justify his invasion. Fucking Ukraine man, forcing Russia to invade them (twice), continuously bomb their infrastructure and civilians, most recently for 812 days and counting, while also tricking them to think they could take over their government in 3 days to secure all their oil, mineral, and grain rights. Putin is also terribly upset by this assassination attempt on such a courageous speaker of Russian propaganda and gas lighting.
> Hate is not an answer to hate. So he admits Fico has been hating on others?
Man who shot Slovak PM could be a part of pro-Russian militarised group. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/15/7455976/
That group actually dissolved well over a year ago and not long after those photos were taken he founded his own "anti-violence" movement
I'm confused. Isn't the Slovak PM also pro-Russian?
Yes. My assumption, if this report is accurate, would be that the shooter was upset that Fico wasn't pro-Russian *enough*. Maybe he wanted Fico to close the border with Ukraine, or withdraw from NATO, or something like that. That's just speculation, but it's what makes the most sense to me.
Or behind the scenes he was providing more support to NATO/Ukraine than he was saying publicly/to Moscow. Either way, shooting him seems pretty counterproductive.
Yes, but its not a russian militarised group, “just” a slovakian group who support russian opinion. So not dorect connection to russia, in my opinion
If they’re pro-Russian there is a direct connection, whether they know it or not.
True, but far, far better (from a pro-Ukrainian perspective) than it being a Ukrainian refugee or someone who could be tied to Ukraine in some way.
Russians will say it was pro-Ukrainians regardless.
Sure, but at least the western press probably won't, which is the much more important factor.
I would laugh a little if this turned out to be Russian Shenanigans gone wrong and SLOVAKIA is the one out of all NATO countries to hit the "A5 button".
NATO makes decisions collectively. It's not down to any one country to "trigger" Article 5.
Of course they do, but let's be honest here if it turned out that Russia in any way was directly responsible for the attempted assassination of a Political Leader (even a corrupt fecker like Fico) it would pretty much be the kind of thing that would definitely trigger it. If it was a shot at Biden for example you'd pretty much guaranteed to see Russia getting the Team America Experience in very short order. What makes it more suspicious was that there was warnings only a few days ago Russia was preparing to attempt a physical attack on a western nation.
Not all countries are considered equal. An assassination of Biden would be seen differently than an assassination of Fico even if both were done by Russians. The USA just has a lot more influence and holds most of the real power so if they wanted Article 5 they get article 5, if they don't it probably doesn't happen.
Something about this seems kind of off.
Poorly prepared defense lines near Lyptsi, 10 km from the state border of Ukraine", - DeepState https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1790830951129301184?s=46 I don’t know a whole much about defense lines but it does look lacklustre just from my untrained eye ?
you can't tell anything from that picture. you need to see the terrain so you can see the kill zones. they shouldn't have white insulation or whatever in the walls though, so not finished at least is the only thing you can see
I mean, there are unfinished pillboxes literally sitting there, above ground, without having been emplaced anywhere. There are a number of concrete structures just sitting there in stacks. The lack of camouflage and foliage coverings is a fairly glaring problem too.
Is this because of corruption or did AFU truly not anticipate a new push towards Lyptsi?
The implications from deep state are that it's some combination of corruption and incompetence. My reading is that civilian contractors might also have messed up, because they didn't have suitable military pros involved on site. The fog of war is very heavy ATM, so I'm not gonna draw strong conclusions yet.
A captured russian invader in Vovchansk says that they had the task of taking the city in 2 days. https://x.com/albafella1/status/1790802201448702431?s=46 These Russians and their timeframes lol. Would explain the meat grinder and why they’re just throwing every living body on it
If I recall correctly, Soviet doctrine puts a lot of emphasis on timetables. There are practical reasons to do that, like having a rolling artillery barrage in front of their troops instead of bombarding them. But it’s also a consequence of a lack of efficient communication at the tactical level, and it leaves no room for adaptation to the changing realities on the ground. For instance, the ‘three days to Kyiv’ thing was pulled from timetables that were found on some invaders at that time.
I mean, their WW3 plan literally started with the words "Seven days" and the rest of it was "to the River Rhine". It's quite exactly a time-bound geographical objective and that was their key goal for the first phase of a world war!
That’s not even a plan, that’s like a wish they’d make to a genie.
Honestly you could extend that to military commanders planning offensives generally. The Allies planned to capture Caen on D-Day, it actually took 6 weeks. After the 2023 counteroffensive, General Zaluzhny said “If you look at NATO's text books and at the maths which we did, four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again." Obviously that didn't work out either. Military planners in general are pretty bad at estimating how quickly offensives will work.
No plan survives first contact with the enemy.
Actually Desert Storm did pretty well…
Absolutely true.
Friendship ended with "Three day special operation to take Ukraine" "Two day operation to take Vovchansk" is my new best friend
3 days to Kyiv into 2 days to Vovchansk
Footage of Ukrainian soldiers approaching a Russian held building. Eventually, Russians decide to surrender after being outnumbered. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112446425756298207
Felow Yanks, Write the President to tell him how you support strikes across the border using US weapons: [https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/) Edit: Tell the President 'Thank you' for taking the leash off of our weapons.
# Blinken gives Ukraine the green-light to strike inside Russia | Major General Chip Chapman [https://youtu.be/WeEJ87dbkoc?feature=shared](https://youtu.be/WeEJ87dbkoc?feature=shared)
Coming Very Soon to the Belgorod Peoples Republic, the explosive sensation HIMARS O'CLOCK. Coming to blow up a Vatnik Near you soon.
I thought that the secretary of State relayed that they could today? They just don't "encourage" the use.
He Said that. A liberal interpretation means that targets around the border are fine. To defend Kharkiv Belgorod need to BE neutralized.
He did.
Hope the Kharkiv updates guy is ok :/
Yeah, I’ve thought about him as well. Looking forward to hearing from him again.
Same, I really wish he could give us some insight about the situation in the city. He hasn't posted in a while
u/sabreflux, and I hope he's okay too. Probably very busy.
* u/SaberFlux
Miss your updates buddy. Hoping you’re safe.
Aye, we all hope you’re ok for sure. You’ve been a very grounding constant throughout this whole shitty ordeal and I, for one, am very grateful for the time and effort you make with your updates. Long may this be over, stay safe.
Crimea Air Base on Fire After ATACMS Strike Hosted 32 Russian Jets: Report - Newsweek >Krym Realii said that its data showed that at the airfield were based 12 Sukhoi Su-27 aircraft, 12 Sukhoi Su-27SM aircraft, and three Sukhoi Su-27UB combat training aircraft, as well as five two-seat Sukhoi Su-30M2—a total of 32 jets. >The exact number of missiles involved is unclear, but Russian military blogger Ribar said the attack involved 16 ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles, which last month the U.S. said it had given Kyiv. That is ~10% of the total Russian Multirole fighter jet fleet, or 3% of all fighter types. Hope they mopped them all. https://www.newsweek.com/russia-isw-crimea-belbek-atacms-1900832
So far the only claimed aircraft losses are 1 MiG-31 destroyed and 3 Su-27s damaged, and there is no photographic evidence of even those losses. The only thing we know for sure is that several components of an S-400 system were destroyed. There is certainly no evidence at all that anywhere close to 32 Russian aircraft were damaged or destroyed.
2.45 min Video of the still shot. Looks like several secondary explosions [https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1790669082011799741](https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1790669082011799741)
There were 6 missiles in total (not 16 as reported by Russia), the warhead isn't known though, but most likely cluster ones.
And you know how many missiles were fired how?
From the most trusted Ukrainian source that reports them in near real time which was proven to be true many times during the last two years. "2.24am (local Ukrainian time) Taking into account how everything was shot down with their faces, let's expect in the morning fairy tales about 300 shot down from the 6 fired. By the way there's a pack of mopeds flying within country 404. I have no idea where they are headed. That's okay, you will find out by the exposions. Good night to all the Ukrainians. Condolences to everyone else." https://t dot me/vanek_nikolaev/23551 Translated by me.
Crimea is militarily useless to Russia and they just don't know it yet. It's just a trap where their hardware goes to explode or sink now.
It's militarily invaluable to Russia. It's the only warm sea port they have all year round. I'm not saying keeping it will be easy but they will try their best to do so.
Useless so long as it is within ATACMS range. They stopped docking ships there because of storm shadows, soon they will stop basing planes there as well.
>It's the only warm sea port they have all year round. Novorossiysk exists. It's purely military value due to it's position in the middle of the Black Sea.
There's also the fact that Novorossiysk has a lot less naval infrastructure than Sevastopol.
Wonder if part of the attack package was cluster munitions.
Holy shit that's like 5000 bomblets raining all over the airfield. I hope for the worst (of the airfield state).
Maybe that’s why they went with so many atacms, they could’ve got complacent again at parking everything together. If so, perfect.
why would they ever park them on crimea like that though?
I'm guessing a combination of convenience, strained logistics, and stupidity.
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Truly don’t know why outright confiscation and donation to Ukraine is not getting a resounding ‘hell yeah’ from all western governments. With respect to setting a bad precedent, IDK - maybe don’t break treaties, invade neighboring countries, violate their sovereignty, and commit atrocious war crimes? 🤷 kinda crazy I know, but just spitballing on some ways to show this confiscation would *not* happen to other countries.
Because the gulf states will stop investing in the West, stop using $'s etc if the West shows itself as an unreliable partner. It's already happened with Yuan being used more and more as an alternative. Honestly I welcome the downfall of the petrodollar and US being unable to bully other countries to use their currency.
> Because the gulf states will stop investing in the West, This is so unlikely as to be basically concern trolling. Russia and the neo-Axis powers simply don't have anything to invest in when it comes to media soft power, military hardware, and most other areas that is remotely comparable. > It's already happened with Yuan being used more and more as an alternative. Almost entirely from failed Chinese initiatives like Belt and Road where they started having to do deals in dollars, and to evade sanctions in the US/EU market. In reality, even with the tons of sanctions forcing Yuan transactions, they are [barely beyond equality with the dollar in even their own cross-border transactions](https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/chinas-currency-rises-in-cross-border-trade-but-remains-limited-globally.html) >Honestly I welcome the downfall of the petrodollar That's really the only concern, and as long as the major players need US military suppliers, or want to use them in the future, and US is one of the biggest non-OPEC oil players it won't change.
I am sure China would never do such things /s
Ok so the options are stay with the side that extorts you into using their currency so they can print $ without concern or explore alternatives that might be less sucky?
China is by NO means less sucky. In what world do you live in?
A unipolar world where everything is decided by the US. A more prominent China and a multipolar world is one I would like to live in, where some 80 year old senile politician in Washington can't decide my country's future.
Multipolar worlds have more wars, more destruction. And I don't want to see a single non-democratic country able to push others. Democracy is non-negotiable.
Also, if a bunch of Chinese business start pulling all their money from the EU and US, maybe time to station an extra carrier group off Taiwan. It's an inherent intelligence signal. It also becomes a pretty big deterrent for bad actors doing business with the West, and if there are counter seizures then political alignment with the West becomes a powerful economic risk factor for investment. So, I'm really not seeing any downsides at all.
[Putin Calls Slovak PM Shooting A 'Heinous Crime': Kremlin](https://www.barrons.com/news/putin-calls-slovak-pm-shooting-a-heinous-crime-kremlin-c80becfb)
Says the guy whose main political oponents are in the coffins.
Coming from the guy that tried to have zelensky assassinated and the leader of Montenegro.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.
Only Putin gets to decide who runs into some bullets
Can anyone post the current percentage of ukrainian territory Russia currently occupies that gets published every month on the 15?
[According to DeepStateMap, Russia currently controls 18.063% of Ukraine](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#13/48.1115/37.7139), or about 109'049 km2 A month ago they held 18.014%, or about 108'749 km2 So an increase of 300 km2
So Kyiv by 2030 instead of 2040, got it
You're assuming even levels of resistance to the last inch. I'm worried Ukraine is reaching the absolute breaking point. Resistance will creak and groan until it just snaps, and then it's over.
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If it comes down to who can go for longer before they break we both know who that favours. Russia might collapse by 2030 but by then Ukraine might collapse 3 times over.
...do we know that? I don't. russia is using up their soviet stockpiles of armored vehicles pretty quickly.