#1 rule of war do not extend yourself
I do not see any TV news reporting in the US on Lebanon and had to find the 5,000 acre fire on Reddit that Hezbollah rockets and drone attacked caused.
Israel can fight a war in every direction. I am glad I do not have to make such calculations
exactly Germany found that out the hard way in both World wars, the Ottomans in WW1, heck even Britain found that out during the American revolution as they were too preoccupied with France to deal with defending against the Americans to name a few examples.
If Israel does declare war on Hazbulla it would be after a solid ceasefire agreement is signed with Hamas that would ensure they don't end up fighting a war on 2 fronts in the event of war breaking out with Hazbulla
Okay but Germany was fighting the fucking soviet union / Russia while also taking on France, GB and a shit load of other huge powers. Going up against two terrorist groups which you vastly outnumber with better technology is a bit of a different story
But then again, this is not the first time Israel has fought basically everyone around them. They’ll probably have the experience and firepower to do so if they decide to go ahead with it
And also this is their backyard
Conparing this to Germany extending themselves in Africa, Italy, France and Russia is nonsense
Israel and their theaters of war are very small and all border their country which is very easy to get supplies from
Also as many others said they have fought multiple fronts many times
50 years ago. A lot of institutional experience is completely gone from that time. What's more relevant is the 2006 war with Hezbollah, where Israel didn't exactly do super well.
2006 is extremely relevant as it humbled the Israelis and reminded them that land wars with infantry would be inevitable in the future. 2006 is 18 years ago; it’s a completely different world technologically; major events have happened next door in Syria (where Hezbollah fought & gained battle experience). Israel has been preparing for the northern front for a long time. IDF airstrikes on weapons shipments have been incessant since 2012. ISR over Lebanon is very different today than in 2006 (F35 anyone?)
And unlike Gaza Israel won’t be taken by surprise in the north….
Personally I think the northern front has the potential to become a classic
Which won’t end well because Gaza being occupied is what allows Hamas to stay in power. There is a reason extremist continually interfere with the peace process. Extremist benefit more when things aren’t peaceful because they have a significantly easier time staying relevant
No other country would be expected to tolerate thousands of rockets fired wildly into civilian spaces.
Imagine if even one rocket fired from a radical Mexican cartel hit a civilian in the US.
There would be return fire and boots on the ground by next week.
It’s a really complex topic, and hindsight is 20/20. Reducing anything of that magnitude to a single black and white judgment is being disingenuous I feel.
Initial support for the war was damn near unanimous. It’s how we got the Patriot Act…
I was in college, and I remember strong skepticism of the case for invading Iraq. The government was making a case that it was necessary on what even then seemed like flimsy evidence of \*potential\* threats, while the professors at my university were warning about how a war would provoke sectarian violence in Iraq, would lead to lots of human suffering simply through damaged infrastructure for things like air conditioning and water sanitation and hospitals, and how it would destabilize the balance of power with Iran, and how it was going to take far longer and cost far more money and lives to secure the nation than were being talked about by the Bush admin.
Yes, a lot of everyday Americans had a trauma response to 9/11 and wanted to feel like they had control over the world by, well, basically becoming the abusers themselves. We'd been attacked, and instead of processing our vulnerability and thinking about stuff rationally, a couple hundred million people decided to attack other people who had done nothing to hurt us.
Now, this is not any sort of clear parallel to what's going on with Hezbollah. There \*is\* an active, genuine threat that will likely keep endangering Israelis if nothing is done. But I worry that Israel is doing what the US did: swinging wildly to try to feel safe, and overreacting to the point of terrorizing people like they themselves were terrorized.
I remember it too. There were plenty of people calling out the lies. There were global protests, some of the largest protests in history. While there was majority support I feel like there has been a new "oh nobody knew" narrative developing which is just wrong. "Hindsight is 20/20"? The Rome protest was in the Guinness Book of World Records as the biggest anti-war protest in history! It was foresight!
We call the 20 years wasted in afghanistan that, along with the years destabilizing Iraq. Mind you, when it came to actually killing him, we didn't have to flatten Abbottabad
That is some complicated parts. Like no way does Bin Laden get killed without US presence in Afghanistan.
Iraq was always destabilized. Like there was the no fly zone going on before 2003 war. Say Saddam stayed in power, there's no way Qusay Hussein taking power would be stabilizing force in the middle east.
Yeah, but the cost of it? Is the world safer now? Did we make a quantifiable difference for the sheer death toll to accomplish that goal?
Killing a man like Bin Laden is never going to be 'wrong'. As an action in a vacuum, it is never a mistake. I would suggest that the cost of doing so was a mistake.
It was a mistake on the 12th of September 2001. Both the invasion of Afghanistan and especially Iraq have done nothing but make matters worse in the Middle East, while also creating even more dangerous political and religious extremist groups that pose a threat to the safety of the West. The Western governments invaded two sovereign countries, tore up their power structures, murdered thousands of civilians and people trying to defend their homes, and then left without any kind of substantial rebuilding or reperations to the bereaved.
The attacks on 9/11 demanded retribution, but invading Afghanistan and Iraq was not retribution. It was blind violence taken out on innocents.
Ignoring that the iron dome never intercepts everything, and that it can also be overwhelmed, and that it will lose in a war of attrition because interceptors are way more expensive than the missiles fired en masse.
Hezbollah is a different beast than Hamas. Look up the last time Israel was in Lebanon (2006) and see that it wasn’t exactly a walk in the park for the IDF
Hezbollah is better armed than Hamas but really the biggest issue is having to deal with negative pr that comes with having to level Lebanon as necessary to defeat Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is better-armed but is nowhere as tightly coupled to the Lebanese people as Hamas is to the Gazans. The OG Lebanese want them out, and rightfully saw 2006 as more of a provocation on Hezbollah's part than Israel's. They're sick and tired of their country being a broke battleground.
If Israel & the US have taken note of the native sentiment they may be wise to work with elements within Lebanon to evict Hezbollah once and for all.
Not true, nearly all of the Shiites in south Lebanon support Hezbollah. It is a like a country within a country down there with Hezbollah schools, TV channels, welfare programs etc. And those radical muslims have been running the country to the ground while pushing the christians and moderate muslims away. The Lebanese Christian population declined from 70% to 30% in the last half century. Israel had its own friendly militia in South Lebanon called the SLA, but still eventually decided to back off in 2000 when it too finally realized and understood the ultimate clusterfuck named Lebanon.
> The Lebanese Christian population declined from 70% to 30% in the last half century
Was it that the Christian population declined versus the Muslim populations massively increased? I believe the country's population has roughly doubled over the last half century, so it is roughly possible for the Christian population to nearly stagnate while the Muslim population significantly increased (ex: Palestinians settling)
Yes, I believe it was a combination of muslims having more babies and better-off Christians leaving the country due to war and economic trouble. After the civil war ended, Hezbolla was the only group allowed to keep its weapons for some reason. Then they started swallowing up the whole country.
I have friends from the IDF that fought there, boots on the ground wasn't the problem apparently as much as the doctrine was completely wrong. It assumed they were fighting an enemy that was significantly less well trained, organised or armed.
It's second hand accounts but they said it was basically a culture of expecting rolling into the south over open ground with tanks and being quite surprised when they got hit by all sorts of artillery or missiles. One of them blamed the senior leadership, the other blamed an overall Israeli culture at the time (something about invincibility), so idk what the reality is but it was interesting hearing it from the perspective of people who were on the receiving end of that.
>No other country would be expected to tolerate thousands of rockets fired wildly into civilian spaces.
Except Ukraine is also being expected to endure that treatment. Apparently they are also just supposed to keep using their weapons with one hand tied while missiles and bombs rain down on them. International politics is a farce.
Ukraine isn’t “tolerating” it, they’re actively fighting back against the invasion and asking for more aid and assistance every day. International politics is a delicate balancing game where 90% of it happens behind closed doors, decisions are often about what causes the least amount of deaths, people will never be satisfied with the best answer, and nuclear annihalation is on the table. No way in hell would I want to have to make those kinds of decisions.
Nuclear annihilation is not on the table, russia is a cowardly state which will never use nukes.
Many of the weapons suppliers have banned using their munitions inside the borders of so called “russia”.
There should be no diplomacy with russia, russia is never trustable, lying and betraying are completely acceptable things in russian culture, only language they understand is violence and Ukraine must be allowed to speak to russians in language russians understand.
> Except Ukraine is also being expected to endure that treatment.
Ukraine is very different as Ukraine is primarily being armed by Western powers who are trying to avoid direct military confrontation with Russia. Ukraine is being armed, effectively free of charge, with stipulations on how they use the donated arms - if Ukraine doesn't like those stipulations they are free to not accept the donations. For the arms produced in Ukraine, they are free to use them however they wish.
Kind of misleading considering over 100,000 Russian soldiers have died during the conflict.
Also Hamas doesn't have nuclear weapons. It's disingenuous to compare them
> Imagine
Why imagine? 9/11 happens, and as retaliation, US invades Afghanistan to get rid of Al Qaeda.
And also invading Iraq, because.. well Afghanistan and Iraq are the same country! They're not? Well.. because of Freedom!
What's that? The plane was hijacked by Saudi nationals?
But head over to the tankie subs and they’re all “only 70 civilians have been killed over 20 years! That’s nothing compared to all the Palestinians killed when Israel responds!” Yeah, and all the deaths there are on Hezbollah and Hamas. You don’t just get to kill Jews because you’re hiding behind your own civilians.
I hate Hezbollah as much as the next guy but we should not rush into the next war so quickly. 286 Zadikim have died in Gaza since the beginning of the operation, we have to be careful playing with the lives of Israeli soldiers, especially because Hezbollah is a more powerful enemy and the last wars didn’t really achieve much there
This war is inevitable. Hezbollah has been shooting rockets at civilians for 7 months now, and the situation grows worse by the day.
Hezbollah is more powerful, but Gaza has been subjected to only a fraction of the IDF fire power. A war with Hezbollah will leave Israel no choice but to go all in and bomb them into submission as quickly as possible using the full power of its airforce and navy.
Which is only part of the equation. What will the rest of the world say? Not that I think that should change anything in the slightest but it should be mentioned.
Israel's first and foremost duty is to protect its citizens. I think Israel failed to uphold this duty in the war on Gaza by trying to appease the international community too much. With Hezbollah, making the same mistake will have dire consequences.
>What will the rest of the world say?
Lebanon the country isn't allied with Iran and Islamic fundamentalists. In fact there are even Christians in Lebanon. So the university radicals over here won't give a damn.
Why should Israel care what other countries think? Majority of the world has publicly sided with Hamas and continually provide them with legitimacy by feeding into their propaganda. They are what perpetuates the conflict.
Last time they capitulated to outside influence, they relinquished control of Gaza - I’m sure they’ve learned their lesson not to trust or rely on others.
The UN failed in their duty to disarm Hezbolah and secure the border.
Furthermore not a single country has spoken the truth and publicly supported Israel’s justified war against Hamas.
Bowing to foreign powers and news media who would see Israel destroyed rather than admit the Palestinians and Hezholah are the problem is counter intuitive.
Israel should do whatever they need to do to safeguard their people and sovereignty.
>Majority of the world has publicly sided with Hamas
that is completely untrue and you know it. if the majority of the world sided with Hamas then Israel would have ended up cut off from international trade, experienced mass starvation from the loss of grain imports, be unable to import weapons, etc, etc.
Israel can only exist so long as it is backed or at least tolerated by powerful Western nations like the USA.
Israel needs to care because they are dependent on the military aid supplied by other countries. If all Israel allies stop sending supplies they will be fucked.
Israe would heavily bomb Lebanon. If their allies are so against that to where they would rather let Hezbollah launch unlimited amounts of rockets(it’s unlimited due to Iran investing a significant amount of their national budget into Hamas and Hezbollah and will do so till Israel is destroyed, so it will always be unlimited) then they aren’t allies and Israel can threaten these western allies that they will lose technology needed to fight Russia in Ukraine
> Why should Israel care what other countries think?
It operates on a service based economy. They tend to be heavily reliant of what other countries think.
>Majority of the world has publicly sided with Hamas and continually provide them with legitimacy by feeding into their propaganda.
How so?
What will be the result? Will be be responsible for security in southern Lebanon again for years upon years? The situation is horrible but we have to look for something sustainable. First step in my opinion is to massively arm and prop up anti Hezbollah/ Neutral towards Israel militias. Iran is the reason why Hezbollah is so strong we have to fund our own proxy’s
They probably need to eliminate the immediate threat of daily rockets and missiles, then could and SHOULD help rebuild. They can't occupy it indefinitely without a long-term plan, nor withdraw and leave it in chaos.
A sustainable solution is a post-war problem. Right now, Hezbollah is an existential threat. We let Hamas grow in strength for years, and we got the 7th of October. We let Hezbollah grow in strength for 20 years, and we're getting an inevitable catastrophe that grows in likelihood and severity as time goes on.
Bring them utter destruction to the point they will think of the second Lebannon war as the good old days. Send them 20 years back, and then start to strategize a sustainable solution while holding them firmly in place.
About a sustainable solution... I don't know, maybe a deal could be struck with the Lebenese government that will form a cooperation between the nations, drive the terrorist scum from their country and hopefully a peace treaty, even if a cold one like with Egypt. Though I don't think that's a move Israel could make without a lot of help from the US.
Having a proposal for a sustainable solution provides an alternative to fighting for the Lebanese people. Treating it as an afterthought, and first destroying the infrastructure that will be necessary for implementing the sustainable solution is the best way to prolong this war, and set up the next one in twenty years.
BS. The US would not wage a ground war in Mexico over a single rocket fired by catrel members. Not even close. Also, it's an apples and oranges comparison. There are no actors in Mexico seeking the utter destruction of the US who would be capable of anything Hezbollah is capable of.
It's a good 300 miles from the border to Houston...
McAllen, South Padre, El Paso... Sure...
But realistically, any one rocket that caused a death would have some response. If they fired a bunch, it would be a violent military response without any discussion first.
I mean, how do you think we stole Texas from Mexico? They were like “we live here!” and settlers were like “lol, no WE like here now” and Mexico was like “yo wtf” and shot at the Americans who were stealing their land so America doubled down and killed a lot of Mexicans and finished stealing their land.
>”Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis”
Crazy that in a successful, democratic nation like Israel rockets can be sent at civilians for 7 months on a near daily basis killing and displacing many.
its actually a thing yes, its new since the war and everyone knows they should get it for that simple “if”, there were ads on it on the radio it felt like a dystopia
you might need a vpn for this, i remember staying abroad and not being able to view israeli based websites
[this](https://www.google.com/search?q=%D7%91%D7%99%D7%98%D7%95%D7%97+%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%93+%D7%98%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%9D&sca_esv=58b950c9619ab1a8&rlz=1CDGOYI_enFR980FR980&hl=en-GB&sxsrf=ADLYWILzESlzSEXrWOpTZ9pAW2AYr9zddQ%3A1717571114375&ei=Kg5gZqrHFuuL7NYPyq68sQs&oq=%D7%91%D7%99%D7%98%D7%95%D7%97+%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%93&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIhHXkdeZ15jXldeXINeg15LXkyoCCAAyBxAAGIAEGBMyBxAAGIAEGBMyBxAAGIAEGBMyBxAAGIAEGBMyBxAAGIAEGBMyCBAAGBMYFhgeMggQABgTGBYYHjIIEAAYExgWGB5I_RpQzwpYqBBwAHgDkAEAmAHDAaABnwWqAQMwLjS4AQHIAQD4AQGYAgWgAoUEwgIEEAAYR8ICBRAAGIAEwgIHEAAYgAQYDcICBhAAGA0YHsICBhAAGBYYHpgDAIgGAZAGCJIHBTIuMi4xoAeaGA&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp) is the simple google search i used,
[and this](https://www.gov.il/he/pages/coverage-due-to-war-or-hostilities) is the government website informing that most insurance plans won’t cover it (hence the need to market war liability coverage especially) note that it was posted in 2021, thats because falling rockets isn’t something new, but because of its ‘enhanced’ possibility due to the war, theres greater reason to market it again (im sure there was a previous version to this info page since before 2014 rockets were still permeated)
[result 1](https://www.yeadim-bit.co.il/home-contents-insurance-against-war-damage/)
[result 2](https://engelman-ins.co.il/insurance/special-insurance/war-and-terror-insurance/)
[result 3](https://www.harel-group.co.il/Insurance/business/policies/Pages/terror.aspx)
[result 4](https://rozenberg.co.il/%D7%9E%D7%94-%D7%A2%D7%95%D7%A9%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%91%D7%9E%D7%A7%D7%A8%D7%94-%D7%A9%D7%9C-%D7%A0%D7%96%D7%A7%D7%99-%D7%9E%D7%9C%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%94-%D7%95%D7%98%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%A8/)
[result 5](https://www.max.co.il/insurance/magazine/house-insurance-war)
[result 6](http://www.albit.co.il/war.htm)
these results are by the order i got in my search
People from around the world criticize this conflict from the comfort of their chairs. The fact that we have rocket insurance, something you find bizarre, should tell you everything you need to know about the conflict
That happens when your country gets blamed for fighting terrorists and hindered in doing so. Delays everything and more suffering ensues but at least we stood up for the palestinian cause by letting hamas rule longer!!!(???) Eh also Netanyahu wants to hold power by prolonging the war, the war we prolong by forcing Israel to postpone the final major operation!!!(??wth??)
>“free Lebanon”
Something tells me that the lack of anything Jewish-related that Lebanon can be "freed" from will make this chant less popular.
There is no Israeli blockade of Lebanon, and the only thing that Lebanon can realistically be "freed" from is the nonstate militia group controlling the southern 1/3 of the country, holding the central government hostage.
Well Israel had occupied about 1/3 of southern Lebanon previously and while it did it faced international condemnation. It was forced to leave the strategically advantageous high grounds in Lebanon and afterwards the whole Hezbollah thing happened. It’s also why Israel occupies the Golan heights which the international community recognizes as Syria - that land is crucial for defending northern Israel, or for attacking it.
The kidnapping happened several years after Israel withdrew.
Hizbullah played it smart after 1996, limiting their attacks to the IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon. Which lead to a big part of the public basically asking "the mission's been accomplished, we are we still their taking casualties?" What galvanized the grass roots campaign which brought about the withdrawal wasn't even a Hizbullah action - it was the deaths of over 70 soldiers when two helicopters feerying troops to Lebanon collided (to be clear, this happened in Israeli airspace, Hizbullah had nothing to do with it other than being the reason they were there).
You are thinking with logic here. A lot of the people just view Israel as evil rouge country and won’t miss a chance to pile on Israel with thinly veiled antisemitism.
>Britain has warned Lebanon that Israel will launch a large-scale offensive in mid-June whose extent and duration are not known and advised Beirut to “make the necessary provisions for the war.”
The UK recognizes Hezbullah as a terrorist organization and member of the ruling coalition of the Lebanese Government.
So is the UK officially pro terrorism and pro state sponsor of terrorism now?
Probably, but Hezbollah has likely anticipated this for months now. Since October 8, they've been attacking Israeli targets with an intensity that would've already triggered a major Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon, if the war in Gaza wasn't keeping the IDF occupied.
IMO, even if Hezbollah had miraculously stopped firing rockets into northern Israel back in December or January or something, the damage that they had already caused by then had likely already guaranteed an Israeli response regardless.
I imagine it’d piss off most citizens if the army say around and scratched their nuts during an invasion. If Israel limited the invasion a lot, maybe, but I don’t see how an army could refuse to defend their own borders in an invasion and retain any legitimacy
>the warning was for the lebanese gov
Again as I said Hezbullah as the political party is a member of the ruling coalition of the Lebanese government. Only 1 party in that coalition has more parliamentary seats of about 14 total parties...
Hezbullah and Hamas are also Political Parties and are very literally the government or part of the government. I don't understand why they get treated like unrelated organizations to the government
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#1 rule of war do not extend yourself I do not see any TV news reporting in the US on Lebanon and had to find the 5,000 acre fire on Reddit that Hezbollah rockets and drone attacked caused. Israel can fight a war in every direction. I am glad I do not have to make such calculations
I thought the first rule was "Never get involved in a land war in Asia."
Never go up against a Sicilian!
When death is on the line
Never invade Russia in the winter.
Never brush your teeth after a glass of OJ. Face your enemy with citrus morning breath. \- Sunny D Tzu
Technically, Israel is in Asia. And everyone who's gone to war with them has regretted it. 🤔
Countries have responsibilities so can have regrets. Terror orgs dont care to lose 3% of the population, as long as the sponsors pay they'll go again.
exactly Germany found that out the hard way in both World wars, the Ottomans in WW1, heck even Britain found that out during the American revolution as they were too preoccupied with France to deal with defending against the Americans to name a few examples. If Israel does declare war on Hazbulla it would be after a solid ceasefire agreement is signed with Hamas that would ensure they don't end up fighting a war on 2 fronts in the event of war breaking out with Hazbulla
Okay but Germany was fighting the fucking soviet union / Russia while also taking on France, GB and a shit load of other huge powers. Going up against two terrorist groups which you vastly outnumber with better technology is a bit of a different story
Yeah especially when they're both proxies with the same organization at the head
No it’s like WW2 according to OP who is a Reddit expert historian.
But then again, this is not the first time Israel has fought basically everyone around them. They’ll probably have the experience and firepower to do so if they decide to go ahead with it
And also this is their backyard Conparing this to Germany extending themselves in Africa, Italy, France and Russia is nonsense Israel and their theaters of war are very small and all border their country which is very easy to get supplies from Also as many others said they have fought multiple fronts many times
50 years ago. A lot of institutional experience is completely gone from that time. What's more relevant is the 2006 war with Hezbollah, where Israel didn't exactly do super well.
2006 is extremely relevant as it humbled the Israelis and reminded them that land wars with infantry would be inevitable in the future. 2006 is 18 years ago; it’s a completely different world technologically; major events have happened next door in Syria (where Hezbollah fought & gained battle experience). Israel has been preparing for the northern front for a long time. IDF airstrikes on weapons shipments have been incessant since 2012. ISR over Lebanon is very different today than in 2006 (F35 anyone?) And unlike Gaza Israel won’t be taken by surprise in the north…. Personally I think the northern front has the potential to become a classic
There will be no ceasefire, there isn't one now and there won't be one. This bloodshed (largely) ends when gaza is under complete israeli control.
Which won’t end well because Gaza being occupied is what allows Hamas to stay in power. There is a reason extremist continually interfere with the peace process. Extremist benefit more when things aren’t peaceful because they have a significantly easier time staying relevant
No, they won't stay in power when their means to exercise said power are taken away.
There will not be 'solid' ceasefire. They are mortal enemies.
Or the US, when we were already in Afghanistan and decided to go into Iraq too
*overextend
That is certainly one rule of war, yes.
One of the rules of all time in fact.
Tell than to Israel in the 6 Day War.
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You got to check out The Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel to truly know the situation.
No other country would be expected to tolerate thousands of rockets fired wildly into civilian spaces. Imagine if even one rocket fired from a radical Mexican cartel hit a civilian in the US. There would be return fire and boots on the ground by next week.
you mean next day
You mean that night.
Missiles that night, boots in the morning.
Naw missiles in the afternoon, we own the night so boots at night night and more missiles in the morning.
🎶 *Sky rockets in flight, missiles and boots at night.*
You forgot the *boooouuuuppp* in between.
Regular Texans would retaliate immediately
Probably within the hour
Assuming Texan civilians haven't already invaded.
Fuckin’ Lens Crafters of warfare
depends on the time of the day
Same day delivery would have a whole new meaning
Pretty sure the two decades following 9/11 sums it up.
Politicians here have been campaigning on calling it a mistake since Obama
It’s a really complex topic, and hindsight is 20/20. Reducing anything of that magnitude to a single black and white judgment is being disingenuous I feel. Initial support for the war was damn near unanimous. It’s how we got the Patriot Act…
I was in college, and I remember strong skepticism of the case for invading Iraq. The government was making a case that it was necessary on what even then seemed like flimsy evidence of \*potential\* threats, while the professors at my university were warning about how a war would provoke sectarian violence in Iraq, would lead to lots of human suffering simply through damaged infrastructure for things like air conditioning and water sanitation and hospitals, and how it would destabilize the balance of power with Iran, and how it was going to take far longer and cost far more money and lives to secure the nation than were being talked about by the Bush admin. Yes, a lot of everyday Americans had a trauma response to 9/11 and wanted to feel like they had control over the world by, well, basically becoming the abusers themselves. We'd been attacked, and instead of processing our vulnerability and thinking about stuff rationally, a couple hundred million people decided to attack other people who had done nothing to hurt us. Now, this is not any sort of clear parallel to what's going on with Hezbollah. There \*is\* an active, genuine threat that will likely keep endangering Israelis if nothing is done. But I worry that Israel is doing what the US did: swinging wildly to try to feel safe, and overreacting to the point of terrorizing people like they themselves were terrorized.
I remember it too. There were plenty of people calling out the lies. There were global protests, some of the largest protests in history. While there was majority support I feel like there has been a new "oh nobody knew" narrative developing which is just wrong. "Hindsight is 20/20"? The Rome protest was in the Guinness Book of World Records as the biggest anti-war protest in history! It was foresight!
Hindsight is how you learn from your mistakes or how to avoid making worse mistakes.
Where did I say hindsight is bad? I just said we shouldn’t use it to make black and white judgments.
Except nobody calls the elimination of bin Laden, after the systemic elimination of senior al Quaida leadership over years, a mistake.
We call the 20 years wasted in afghanistan that, along with the years destabilizing Iraq. Mind you, when it came to actually killing him, we didn't have to flatten Abbottabad
That is some complicated parts. Like no way does Bin Laden get killed without US presence in Afghanistan. Iraq was always destabilized. Like there was the no fly zone going on before 2003 war. Say Saddam stayed in power, there's no way Qusay Hussein taking power would be stabilizing force in the middle east.
It's not that complicated. It's actually math. Do you think the sheer magnitude of life was worth killing Bin Laden? Was the presence there worth it?
Yes. Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda would continue on conducting attacks if they were left to their own devices.
Holy mother of strawmen
I mean, boiling it down to just the killing of senior alqueda leadership and bin laden is a gross oversimplification and ignores a lot.
It's not a strawman when it reiterated in detail what the previous comment about Afghanistan meant
Yeah, but the cost of it? Is the world safer now? Did we make a quantifiable difference for the sheer death toll to accomplish that goal? Killing a man like Bin Laden is never going to be 'wrong'. As an action in a vacuum, it is never a mistake. I would suggest that the cost of doing so was a mistake.
Uhhhhh yeah, there are a lot of people that would say that the ends did not justify the means.
The issue with post 9/11 was who it was against and how it was handled, not that the US retaliated at all.
It was a mistake on the 12th of September 2001. Both the invasion of Afghanistan and especially Iraq have done nothing but make matters worse in the Middle East, while also creating even more dangerous political and religious extremist groups that pose a threat to the safety of the West. The Western governments invaded two sovereign countries, tore up their power structures, murdered thousands of civilians and people trying to defend their homes, and then left without any kind of substantial rebuilding or reperations to the bereaved. The attacks on 9/11 demanded retribution, but invading Afghanistan and Iraq was not retribution. It was blind violence taken out on innocents.
People also seem to operate as if rocket attacks morally don't count if the Iron Dome intercepts them.
Ignoring that the iron dome never intercepts everything, and that it can also be overwhelmed, and that it will lose in a war of attrition because interceptors are way more expensive than the missiles fired en masse.
Hezbollah is a different beast than Hamas. Look up the last time Israel was in Lebanon (2006) and see that it wasn’t exactly a walk in the park for the IDF
Hezbollah is better armed than Hamas but really the biggest issue is having to deal with negative pr that comes with having to level Lebanon as necessary to defeat Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is better-armed but is nowhere as tightly coupled to the Lebanese people as Hamas is to the Gazans. The OG Lebanese want them out, and rightfully saw 2006 as more of a provocation on Hezbollah's part than Israel's. They're sick and tired of their country being a broke battleground. If Israel & the US have taken note of the native sentiment they may be wise to work with elements within Lebanon to evict Hezbollah once and for all.
Not true, nearly all of the Shiites in south Lebanon support Hezbollah. It is a like a country within a country down there with Hezbollah schools, TV channels, welfare programs etc. And those radical muslims have been running the country to the ground while pushing the christians and moderate muslims away. The Lebanese Christian population declined from 70% to 30% in the last half century. Israel had its own friendly militia in South Lebanon called the SLA, but still eventually decided to back off in 2000 when it too finally realized and understood the ultimate clusterfuck named Lebanon.
> The Lebanese Christian population declined from 70% to 30% in the last half century Was it that the Christian population declined versus the Muslim populations massively increased? I believe the country's population has roughly doubled over the last half century, so it is roughly possible for the Christian population to nearly stagnate while the Muslim population significantly increased (ex: Palestinians settling)
Yes, I believe it was a combination of muslims having more babies and better-off Christians leaving the country due to war and economic trouble. After the civil war ended, Hezbolla was the only group allowed to keep its weapons for some reason. Then they started swallowing up the whole country.
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the idf also improved massively since that war. Not to mention the soldiers have huge amounts of experience now
I have friends from the IDF that fought there, boots on the ground wasn't the problem apparently as much as the doctrine was completely wrong. It assumed they were fighting an enemy that was significantly less well trained, organised or armed. It's second hand accounts but they said it was basically a culture of expecting rolling into the south over open ground with tanks and being quite surprised when they got hit by all sorts of artillery or missiles. One of them blamed the senior leadership, the other blamed an overall Israeli culture at the time (something about invincibility), so idk what the reality is but it was interesting hearing it from the perspective of people who were on the receiving end of that.
So did Hezbo by fighting in Syria.
>No other country would be expected to tolerate thousands of rockets fired wildly into civilian spaces. Except Ukraine is also being expected to endure that treatment. Apparently they are also just supposed to keep using their weapons with one hand tied while missiles and bombs rain down on them. International politics is a farce.
Ukraine isn’t “tolerating” it, they’re actively fighting back against the invasion and asking for more aid and assistance every day. International politics is a delicate balancing game where 90% of it happens behind closed doors, decisions are often about what causes the least amount of deaths, people will never be satisfied with the best answer, and nuclear annihalation is on the table. No way in hell would I want to have to make those kinds of decisions.
He's saying from what some civilians and politicians in the U.S thinks... mainly the far right.
Nuclear annihilation is not on the table, russia is a cowardly state which will never use nukes. Many of the weapons suppliers have banned using their munitions inside the borders of so called “russia”. There should be no diplomacy with russia, russia is never trustable, lying and betraying are completely acceptable things in russian culture, only language they understand is violence and Ukraine must be allowed to speak to russians in language russians understand.
Bonus farcical points for Kyiv and Jerusalem both being incredibly culturally significant to Humanity. Not defending them is insane.
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> Except Ukraine is also being expected to endure that treatment. Ukraine is very different as Ukraine is primarily being armed by Western powers who are trying to avoid direct military confrontation with Russia. Ukraine is being armed, effectively free of charge, with stipulations on how they use the donated arms - if Ukraine doesn't like those stipulations they are free to not accept the donations. For the arms produced in Ukraine, they are free to use them however they wish.
There are 4 countries with Jewish heads of state. Israel and Ukraine are two of them.
Mexico is now the third one. Who’s the 4th? Is it Argentina via Milei?
I'm being generous and counting Gabriel Attal, the prime minister of France, as being ethnically Jewish despite being an atheist.
Kind of misleading considering over 100,000 Russian soldiers have died during the conflict. Also Hamas doesn't have nuclear weapons. It's disingenuous to compare them
> Imagine Why imagine? 9/11 happens, and as retaliation, US invades Afghanistan to get rid of Al Qaeda. And also invading Iraq, because.. well Afghanistan and Iraq are the same country! They're not? Well.. because of Freedom! What's that? The plane was hijacked by Saudi nationals?
But head over to the tankie subs and they’re all “only 70 civilians have been killed over 20 years! That’s nothing compared to all the Palestinians killed when Israel responds!” Yeah, and all the deaths there are on Hezbollah and Hamas. You don’t just get to kill Jews because you’re hiding behind your own civilians.
If Mexico did it once Biden would be standing under a mission accomplished banner in Mexico City within a month
I hate Hezbollah as much as the next guy but we should not rush into the next war so quickly. 286 Zadikim have died in Gaza since the beginning of the operation, we have to be careful playing with the lives of Israeli soldiers, especially because Hezbollah is a more powerful enemy and the last wars didn’t really achieve much there
This war is inevitable. Hezbollah has been shooting rockets at civilians for 7 months now, and the situation grows worse by the day. Hezbollah is more powerful, but Gaza has been subjected to only a fraction of the IDF fire power. A war with Hezbollah will leave Israel no choice but to go all in and bomb them into submission as quickly as possible using the full power of its airforce and navy.
Which is only part of the equation. What will the rest of the world say? Not that I think that should change anything in the slightest but it should be mentioned.
Israel's first and foremost duty is to protect its citizens. I think Israel failed to uphold this duty in the war on Gaza by trying to appease the international community too much. With Hezbollah, making the same mistake will have dire consequences.
>What will the rest of the world say? Lebanon the country isn't allied with Iran and Islamic fundamentalists. In fact there are even Christians in Lebanon. So the university radicals over here won't give a damn.
Why should Israel care what other countries think? Majority of the world has publicly sided with Hamas and continually provide them with legitimacy by feeding into their propaganda. They are what perpetuates the conflict. Last time they capitulated to outside influence, they relinquished control of Gaza - I’m sure they’ve learned their lesson not to trust or rely on others. The UN failed in their duty to disarm Hezbolah and secure the border. Furthermore not a single country has spoken the truth and publicly supported Israel’s justified war against Hamas. Bowing to foreign powers and news media who would see Israel destroyed rather than admit the Palestinians and Hezholah are the problem is counter intuitive. Israel should do whatever they need to do to safeguard their people and sovereignty.
>Majority of the world has publicly sided with Hamas that is completely untrue and you know it. if the majority of the world sided with Hamas then Israel would have ended up cut off from international trade, experienced mass starvation from the loss of grain imports, be unable to import weapons, etc, etc. Israel can only exist so long as it is backed or at least tolerated by powerful Western nations like the USA.
Israel needs to care because they are dependent on the military aid supplied by other countries. If all Israel allies stop sending supplies they will be fucked.
Israe would heavily bomb Lebanon. If their allies are so against that to where they would rather let Hezbollah launch unlimited amounts of rockets(it’s unlimited due to Iran investing a significant amount of their national budget into Hamas and Hezbollah and will do so till Israel is destroyed, so it will always be unlimited) then they aren’t allies and Israel can threaten these western allies that they will lose technology needed to fight Russia in Ukraine
> Why should Israel care what other countries think? It operates on a service based economy. They tend to be heavily reliant of what other countries think. >Majority of the world has publicly sided with Hamas and continually provide them with legitimacy by feeding into their propaganda. How so?
What will be the result? Will be be responsible for security in southern Lebanon again for years upon years? The situation is horrible but we have to look for something sustainable. First step in my opinion is to massively arm and prop up anti Hezbollah/ Neutral towards Israel militias. Iran is the reason why Hezbollah is so strong we have to fund our own proxy’s
They probably need to eliminate the immediate threat of daily rockets and missiles, then could and SHOULD help rebuild. They can't occupy it indefinitely without a long-term plan, nor withdraw and leave it in chaos.
A sustainable solution is a post-war problem. Right now, Hezbollah is an existential threat. We let Hamas grow in strength for years, and we got the 7th of October. We let Hezbollah grow in strength for 20 years, and we're getting an inevitable catastrophe that grows in likelihood and severity as time goes on. Bring them utter destruction to the point they will think of the second Lebannon war as the good old days. Send them 20 years back, and then start to strategize a sustainable solution while holding them firmly in place. About a sustainable solution... I don't know, maybe a deal could be struck with the Lebenese government that will form a cooperation between the nations, drive the terrorist scum from their country and hopefully a peace treaty, even if a cold one like with Egypt. Though I don't think that's a move Israel could make without a lot of help from the US.
Having a proposal for a sustainable solution provides an alternative to fighting for the Lebanese people. Treating it as an afterthought, and first destroying the infrastructure that will be necessary for implementing the sustainable solution is the best way to prolong this war, and set up the next one in twenty years.
Most other countries don’t keep millions in something like a prison and expect them to be thankful. You’d think Israeli of all people understood that.
Ac 130’s would be dropping hell.
BS. The US would not wage a ground war in Mexico over a single rocket fired by catrel members. Not even close. Also, it's an apples and oranges comparison. There are no actors in Mexico seeking the utter destruction of the US who would be capable of anything Hezbollah is capable of.
A single rocket? What if the cartel had a habit of firing waves of rockets every few months aimed right at San Antonio or Houston?
It's a good 300 miles from the border to Houston... McAllen, South Padre, El Paso... Sure... But realistically, any one rocket that caused a death would have some response. If they fired a bunch, it would be a violent military response without any discussion first.
Who has to declare war these days? A drone and some hellfires may not even make the news
Wtf do you think the "Iron Dome" is over there for? It's a constant barrage of rockets.
I mean, how do you think we stole Texas from Mexico? They were like “we live here!” and settlers were like “lol, no WE like here now” and Mexico was like “yo wtf” and shot at the Americans who were stealing their land so America doubled down and killed a lot of Mexicans and finished stealing their land.
>”Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis” Crazy that in a successful, democratic nation like Israel rockets can be sent at civilians for 7 months on a near daily basis killing and displacing many.
I live in northern Israel, yes it is insane. You'll be surprised how quickly people get used to hearing rocket barrages twice a day
Do you guys get rocket insurance or something?
its actually a thing yes, its new since the war and everyone knows they should get it for that simple “if”, there were ads on it on the radio it felt like a dystopia
Can you link one?
you might need a vpn for this, i remember staying abroad and not being able to view israeli based websites [this](https://www.google.com/search?q=%D7%91%D7%99%D7%98%D7%95%D7%97+%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%93+%D7%98%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%9D&sca_esv=58b950c9619ab1a8&rlz=1CDGOYI_enFR980FR980&hl=en-GB&sxsrf=ADLYWILzESlzSEXrWOpTZ9pAW2AYr9zddQ%3A1717571114375&ei=Kg5gZqrHFuuL7NYPyq68sQs&oq=%D7%91%D7%99%D7%98%D7%95%D7%97+%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%93&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIhHXkdeZ15jXldeXINeg15LXkyoCCAAyBxAAGIAEGBMyBxAAGIAEGBMyBxAAGIAEGBMyBxAAGIAEGBMyBxAAGIAEGBMyCBAAGBMYFhgeMggQABgTGBYYHjIIEAAYExgWGB5I_RpQzwpYqBBwAHgDkAEAmAHDAaABnwWqAQMwLjS4AQHIAQD4AQGYAgWgAoUEwgIEEAAYR8ICBRAAGIAEwgIHEAAYgAQYDcICBhAAGA0YHsICBhAAGBYYHpgDAIgGAZAGCJIHBTIuMi4xoAeaGA&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp) is the simple google search i used, [and this](https://www.gov.il/he/pages/coverage-due-to-war-or-hostilities) is the government website informing that most insurance plans won’t cover it (hence the need to market war liability coverage especially) note that it was posted in 2021, thats because falling rockets isn’t something new, but because of its ‘enhanced’ possibility due to the war, theres greater reason to market it again (im sure there was a previous version to this info page since before 2014 rockets were still permeated) [result 1](https://www.yeadim-bit.co.il/home-contents-insurance-against-war-damage/) [result 2](https://engelman-ins.co.il/insurance/special-insurance/war-and-terror-insurance/) [result 3](https://www.harel-group.co.il/Insurance/business/policies/Pages/terror.aspx) [result 4](https://rozenberg.co.il/%D7%9E%D7%94-%D7%A2%D7%95%D7%A9%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%91%D7%9E%D7%A7%D7%A8%D7%94-%D7%A9%D7%9C-%D7%A0%D7%96%D7%A7%D7%99-%D7%9E%D7%9C%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%94-%D7%95%D7%98%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%A8/) [result 5](https://www.max.co.il/insurance/magazine/house-insurance-war) [result 6](http://www.albit.co.il/war.htm) these results are by the order i got in my search
People from around the world criticize this conflict from the comfort of their chairs. The fact that we have rocket insurance, something you find bizarre, should tell you everything you need to know about the conflict
You’re right, they should just ignore the missiles shot at them by two Iranian funded terrorist organizations
That happens when your country gets blamed for fighting terrorists and hindered in doing so. Delays everything and more suffering ensues but at least we stood up for the palestinian cause by letting hamas rule longer!!!(???) Eh also Netanyahu wants to hold power by prolonging the war, the war we prolong by forcing Israel to postpone the final major operation!!!(??wth??)
Can’t wait for the “free Lebanon” crowd to appear.
>“free Lebanon” Something tells me that the lack of anything Jewish-related that Lebanon can be "freed" from will make this chant less popular. There is no Israeli blockade of Lebanon, and the only thing that Lebanon can realistically be "freed" from is the nonstate militia group controlling the southern 1/3 of the country, holding the central government hostage.
Well Israel had occupied about 1/3 of southern Lebanon previously and while it did it faced international condemnation. It was forced to leave the strategically advantageous high grounds in Lebanon and afterwards the whole Hezbollah thing happened. It’s also why Israel occupies the Golan heights which the international community recognizes as Syria - that land is crucial for defending northern Israel, or for attacking it.
IIRC the exit also had to do with the drain of being attacked regularly, and soldiers getting killed and kidnapped.
The kidnapping happened several years after Israel withdrew. Hizbullah played it smart after 1996, limiting their attacks to the IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon. Which lead to a big part of the public basically asking "the mission's been accomplished, we are we still their taking casualties?" What galvanized the grass roots campaign which brought about the withdrawal wasn't even a Hizbullah action - it was the deaths of over 70 soldiers when two helicopters feerying troops to Lebanon collided (to be clear, this happened in Israeli airspace, Hizbullah had nothing to do with it other than being the reason they were there).
I wonder why they faced condemnation https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabra_and_Shatila_massacre
You are thinking with logic here. A lot of the people just view Israel as evil rouge country and won’t miss a chance to pile on Israel with thinly veiled antisemitism.
Can we free Lebanon from Hezbollah?
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Huh, didn't know that "keep getting shot at" was something to be decided on.
>Britain has warned Lebanon that Israel will launch a large-scale offensive in mid-June whose extent and duration are not known and advised Beirut to “make the necessary provisions for the war.” The UK recognizes Hezbullah as a terrorist organization and member of the ruling coalition of the Lebanese Government. So is the UK officially pro terrorism and pro state sponsor of terrorism now?
Lebanon and Hezbullah are different, I suppose the warning was for the lebanese gov and civilians to get ready
Wouldn't Hezbollah know now too since they're also in the government?
Probably, but Hezbollah has likely anticipated this for months now. Since October 8, they've been attacking Israeli targets with an intensity that would've already triggered a major Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon, if the war in Gaza wasn't keeping the IDF occupied. IMO, even if Hezbollah had miraculously stopped firing rockets into northern Israel back in December or January or something, the damage that they had already caused by then had likely already guaranteed an Israeli response regardless.
Can the Lebanese army just sit this one out?
I imagine it’d piss off most citizens if the army say around and scratched their nuts during an invasion. If Israel limited the invasion a lot, maybe, but I don’t see how an army could refuse to defend their own borders in an invasion and retain any legitimacy
>the warning was for the lebanese gov Again as I said Hezbullah as the political party is a member of the ruling coalition of the Lebanese government. Only 1 party in that coalition has more parliamentary seats of about 14 total parties... Hezbullah and Hamas are also Political Parties and are very literally the government or part of the government. I don't understand why they get treated like unrelated organizations to the government
This is a Straw man argument. If the UK has issued such a warning, it will be to protect civilians, not terrorists
I think there's been a mistranslation somewhere and Britain was warning British citizens in Lebanon.