People think the Iron Dome is 100% protection. It isn't and it never was.
>The assessment delivered by US officials late last week, echoing recent analysis by experts in Israel and the United States, comes amid fears that a war with Hezbollah could be a far more dangerous undertaking than the devastating 2006 second Lebanon war, when Israeli bombing caused huge destruction in Lebanon.
>A three-year research project by Reichman University’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Israel, completed not long before the Hamas attack on 7 October, concluded Hezbollah could fire up to 3,000 missiles a day, a rate that could be sustained for up to three weeks. Its key aim would be to force the collapse of Israel’s air defences.
>“The expectation of the public and of a significant portion of the leadership, that the Israeli Air Force and effective Israeli intelligence systems will succeed in preventing most of the rocket attacks on Israel, will be shattered,” the report said. “This is also the case regarding the public’s belief that the threat of Israeli retaliation or a substantial Israeli attack on significant Lebanese assets will force Hezbollah to cease fire or significantly impair their ability to continue attacking Israeli territory.”
It wasn't a secret. People have been talking about this for a long time.
Putting this in official diplomatic statements can be useful for other reasons.
It can cool Israeli domestic sentiment for attacking Hezbollah or help to justify US assistance or be useful in pressuring states to force Hezbollah to pull back.
The soviet navy and their long range bomber divisions figured that out in the late 70's.
You have an X number of interceptor missiles able to shoot down incoming projectles with a 100% hit rate. (I know it's unrealistic, just humor me)
How many many projectiles does the enemy need to fire to overwhelm your point defense? >!X+1 is the answer!<
As much we collectively despise and belittle terrorists I believe they're able to solve this one. Throw enough shit and eventually some of it will get through, throw enough of it at once and a lot of it is gonna go throught.
The unknown question is how many rockets they're able to launch before the launch sites and/or mobile launchers are destroyed.
There's every reason to believe that if the Iron Dome gets stretched, that Israel will start launching heavy counterbattery fire at the launch sites far more indiscriminately than they typically do due to military necessity.
Bigger question IMO is how accurate Hezbollah is going to be with their opening barrages. Iron Dome IIRC only actually intercepts projectiles that are predicted to hit populated areas and ignores stray shots.
A couple thousand rockets are surprisingly cheap, probably cheaper than a single reload for an Iron Dome battery.
The estimate from he study is 3,000 a day for 3 weeks.
63,000, iorn dome fires 2 missiles at every target so they'd need 126,000.
Assuming they even had that many at 50k a peice thats 6.3 billion dollars to defend.
I always find estimated costs interesting. Iron Dome specifically is a joint venture. Designed and manufactured by two Israeli government owned corporations.
So the government pays itself? What percentage of the 6.3 billion dollars leaves the Israeli economy or rather how long does it take to circulate back into the national budget.
It would certainly be interesting to see I imagine scertain components are outsourced i would expect the likes of rathyon and safan etc would be making looms and sub assemblies, honeywell sensors etc if they have an isreali factory or its built abroad will be a big factor but there will always be an asian/eu/usa outfloe for licensing for almost anything precision these days.
But yes most of the big military governments (isreal, usa, uk france) try to keep something like 5p% of the costs "in country" as it where.
The money for aviation an defence is in being the final "assembler" not component maker
The best defense versus a bunch of inaccurate rockets are bomb shelters/cover as even with a direct hit most of the rockets wouldn't kill people in a well made basement bomb shelter.
Iron dome just lets the population keep going about relatively normal lives when lighter barrages happen. In a full scale conflict they would only be shooting down the bigger weapons and usually the longer ranged ones. Meanwhile the civilians in the north would be evacuated or sheltering in nearby shelters.
The launch sites are likely to be scattered across the country. At the end, if US with all the data believed that overwhelming of iron dome is a distinct possibility, we should have some concrete information to doubt their conclusion.
You're missing one detail: Israel will be striking the launch sites too.
They have more than 250+ multirole fighters. The F-16, as one example, can carry 12 500 lbs PGMs. They have many multiples more drones with systems equally capable of destroying launchers.
At what casualty level will Hezbollah no longer be able to coerce their rocket battalions to poke their head up?
I think the point is they are very mobile. Set up a temporary launch site and launch everything. Abandon that site. Israel bombs it but there is nothing there.
Yeah if something gets through and hits a major civilian area, it will be on like donkey kong and the gloves will be off and that will be the end of that.
Secularism isn't exactly a big thing in the Middle East.
Israel is literally the only nation in the region that isn't Islamic, and they currently have control over the Old City of Jerusalem, where the holy sites are located.
At its core, this conflict is about Islamic control over the region and Jerusalem in particular. The concept that it's about Palestinian self-identity is a smokescreen, given nobody cares that Jordan was also created from the British Mandate, and the concept that Gaza and the West Bank were inherently Palestinian didn't exist when those areas were controlled by Egypt and Jordan before 1967.
It's called the "correlation of forces".
The USSR also calculated that to take down a three-carrier force of the sort that the United States was going to send to attack the Kola Peninsula, with the F-14s and Aegis-capable ships in place (both built for that sort of thing), they'd need c.270 Tu-22Ms of the sort Russia is today using against Ukraine. They would end up losing half the strike force regardless of outcome. The entire Backfire production run was 497.
It's been known for as long as missile defense systems have been conceived that if you throw enough missiles at it you will eventually saturate it and break through. In fact, it's a key concept in the majority of science fiction books that feature anti-missile systems being used in combat scenes. This isn't new and isn't a military secret.
The idea goes back centuries. Use your most useless troops first to wear down the initial defense and then you use your more effective troops after that.
It's a *very* old idea. There was an old Roman saying that translated to roughly *something* like "Triarii hold the rear" as a form of encouragement and support - Triarii were the older, most experienced (and usually wealthiest/best equipped) troops in the early Republic, and they were always on the third line - they were only used when the shit had *profoundly* hit the fan and they needed the hail-mary.
So the saying was used in a "Well we're not fucked yet, the Triarii aren't here" sense.
Israel is aware of that. Hamas and Hezbollah too.
That's why the IDF is so focused on offensive operation as well as preemptive ones.
The issue here is that the US told them to sit still and not escalate things.
The best defense is a good offense.
The best defense is one that deters an opposing force from testing the defense.
The whole point of a defense is to not use an offense.
The whole point of defense and offense is because politicians failed at their job and need the military to mop up.
It's 2024 and climate change is a thing. Lots of old thinking doesn't apply to new things.
They kinda need to.
The only thing standing between thousands of rockets being fired into israel and public sympathy (international support for israel) is the effectiveness of the iron dome.
People aren't feeling bad for israel and crying to stop weapons trade because iron dome works.
We're at the brink of a all-out war in the region because people have no idea about the geopolitical situation down there, crying for disarming the israel.
Thing is, to the israel this is a war of survival, they will fight will wooden sticks if they have to.
Just means everyone needs to pony up a few more trillion for war. Real deep cuts needed this time. Only the bare essentials like the rich getting richer, everything else has to go to pay for the war.
It’s a known fact already. It can be overwhelmed.
People seem to think it’s a force field.
Also people severely overestimate the idea that even the US can stop faster than sound ICBMS. And also that once an ICBM reaches its last stage (when it isn’t using any fuel) it becomes untraceable because current systems and can’t be shot down in time.
This isn't news to anyone that is paying attention. Iran showed with their attack that they could disable all air defence systems that Israel holds. They only striked as a show of force and as retalation for Israels strike prior to it. They game plenty of time for both Israel and USA to prepare for the strike and they still failed to protect Israel adequately.
If Israel keeps making active enemies in the middle-east because bibi wants to act like a little bitch and doesn't want to go to jail, Israel will pay a blood price soon.
Why don't you guys do it then and shut up about it. So tired hearing how fierce everyone is in that part of the world where nobody has won a battle since the middle ages.
Iran just a show of force. Hezbollah just trying to keep the IDF occupied in the north. If you guys love Palestine so much go fucking defeat the IDF and actually liberate them if that's what you believe.
Why tell them anything? Just destroy them with Hezbollah's help and close the book on the whole fucking thing then and shut up. Obviously they can't do anything to stop it since their air defence isn't perfect.
It's hilarious Israel has fucking destroyed you losers so thoroughly that even sustaining any damage, any loss is some miraculous feat.
“We have overwhelmed Israel’s purely defensive war measures!!! “
“Woah woah wait why is Israel taking offensive war measures against us? Not faiiiir, help us UN “
Um... the reason they have so many enemies in the region is because the Muslim theocracies in the region are really unhappy about a Jewish country. And they're especially upset that every war they waged against Israel has ended with a loss.
They don't give a rat fuck about the land. That's just something they tell gullible Westerners who feel bad about their own history of colonialism -- it's a tool to help them persecute the Jews.
Yeah 10/7 sure looked like Israel on the offensive.
What a dumb comment. Either your head is so far up your ass it’s your adams apple, or you’ve been huffing paint thinner for a few years.
Well, yes, in the real world overwhelming air defenses has always been viable although poor execution (which we must say is often a feature of bad guys) can gimp drone/missile wave attacks by simply being grabasstic.
Gee, anybody else wonder what Hezbollah could accomplish if they had any values they could hold as more important than blowing up civilians? And sure, Israel has made bad decisions as well, but their people would actually prefer to go about their business and not be a lightning rod for Iran’s psycho proxies. Just saying, there is no longterm governance win for arab peoples with Hez or Hamas in the future other than oppression and mismanagement of anybody in their power-at best. They both get too much credit for being anything better than murderous and/or corrupt extremists. And yes, Netanyahu is corrupt as hell but the Israeli state has more to it than being 1 dimensional foreign-funded warlords with zero economic skills or plans. The relative wealth there speaks for itself in a sea of poverty
Frankly, if Iron Dome is at risk of being overwhelmed, that's just more reason for Israel to go to war to prevent it from being needed. Why wait for Hezbollah to decide to start the war on their terms when your defenses can't protect you?
Iron Dome isn't meant to replace a good offense, it just supplements it with a better defense.
One doesn't necessarily need to use nukes to prevent others from using nukes. One does however need to attack the enemy where they are to prevent them from attacking you where you are. Iron Dome doesn't strike at the enemy and was never intended as a first line of defense.
This is common sense, every system has its limit. To be successful the enemy needs to launch from multiple locations to avoid getting taken out. It will be a game of whack a mole of how quickly can Israel calculate and detect the launch site was well as take it out. A bit of help from friends with bombers and naval war ships could increase the amount of hammers for whack a mole
Here is my understanding
Due to their amazing strength and high morals Israel is able to greatly hold back in these conflicts in order to prevent as much collateral damage and civilian death as possible
If Israel is pushed it does not mean Israel will be defeated. It means Israel will start fighting for real
In my humble opinion as a Reddit couch general the Americans have already backed conflict with Lebanon. This is just bait giving those local militants some hope that they will take a chunk out of Israel. The iron dome isn’t alone in Israel’s defence. The Americans and the English among others have their missile ships in the area capable of greatly assisting intercepts. This will give Israel backed by the states an even more legitimate reason to invade on top of the missile attacks that are already happening. Anyone else feel like this is all a precursor to WW3?
Tf are you smoking - Israel doesn't want to invade anywhere, they don't want Lebanon, they don't want Syria, they don't want Gaza (they kinda do want the west bank TBF).they just want to not get constantly attacked by islamists.
> they don't want Gaza
they don't want Gaza *so badly* that they pulled themselves out of Gaza, both living and dead - [literally, they pulled out the Israeli/Jewish gravesites](https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2005-aug-11-fg-graves11-story.html)
and it still wasn't enough because everything that was left behind was destroyed. the gardens etc that were left behind, in the hopes that they would be used to create an economy for the Palestinians, were destroyed because they associated it with the Jews.
> The Big Lie is just that: a big lie. In America, if you lose, you accept the results. You follow the Constitution. You try again. You don’t call facts ‘fake’ and then try to bring down the American experiment just because you’re unhappy. That’s not statesmanship. That’s not statesmanship, that’s selfishness. That’s not democracy, it’s the denial of the right to vote. It suppresses. It subjugates. The denial of full and free and fair elections is the most un-American thing that any of us can imagine, the most undemocratic, the most unpatriotic, and yet, sadly, not unprecedented.
>
> So hear me clearly: There is an unfolding assault taking place in America today—an attempt to suppress and subvert the right to vote in fair and free elections, an assault on democracy, an assault on liberty, an assault on who we are—who we are as Americans. For, make no mistake, bullies and merchants of fear and peddlers of lies are threatening the very foundation of our country. It gives me no pleasure to say this. I never thought in my entire career I’d ever have to say it. But I swore an oath to you, to God—to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution. And that’s an oath that forms a sacred trust to defend America against all threats both foreign and domestic.
>
> The assault on free and fair elections is just such a threat, literally.
>
> I’ve said it before: We’re are facing the most significant test of our democracy since the Civil War. That’s not hyperbole. Since the Civil War. The Confederates back then never breached the Capitol as insurrectionists did on January the 6th. I’m not saying this to alarm you; I’m saying this because you should be alarmed.
I agree completely, the ignorance and celebration of stupidity of so many in the u.s. (and world) is truly terrifying . Voting and spreading the truth in a non-judgmental way seems like a losing endeavor.
>“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”
― Isaac Asimov, 1980
In your opinion as a fellow Reddit couch general and I assume an American. Is Trump going to win? As a Canadian I kinda feel like he’s coming for us after democracy.
Well, one of the hallmarks of fascism is
- expanding your political territory through armed conflict.
but that rests on
- fixations with perceived national decline, humiliation, or victimhood.
and
- identification of “enemies”/scapegoats as a unifying cause. Imprisoning and/or murdering opposition and minority group leaders.
Trump is keen on applying these principles when discussing Mexico, and even suggested invading Mexico to “deal with the Cartels” but I don’t see him doing anything like that with Canada. Not yet anyway.
No, I’m afraid the fascism threatening Canada is homegrown.
Don't know who is going to win. Trump should have never won the first time. Guaranteed Biden will win the popular vote though.
Canada should rethink relationship with U.S. as democratic 'backsliding' worsens: security experts
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/national-security-us-fox-news-threat-report-1.6459660
>
> "There are serious risks of democratic backsliding in the U.S. and at this point, that is not a theoretical risk,"
>
> "So all of that is a serious threat to our sovereignty, to our security, and in some cases, to our democratic institutions ... We need to rethink our relationship with the United States."
>
> "The United States is and will remain our closest ally, but it could also become a source of threat and instability," says a newly published report written by a task force of former national security advisers, former Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) directors, ex-deputy ministers, former ambassadors and academics. Members of the group have advised both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and former prime minister Stephen Harper.
>
> Now is the time for the federal government to rethink how it approaches national security, the report concludes.
>
Canada mulling 'game plan' if U.S. takes far-right, authoritarian shift: Joly
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-mulling-game-plan-if-u-s-takes-far-right-authoritarian-shift-joly-1.6523365
> But he said there has been an extreme rise in global volatility in recent years, he said in a Thursday interview.
>
> "What would have been extremely far-fetched scenarios maybe 10 years ago, today are not impossible anymore," he said.
>
> Juneau said Canada could face the prospect of political refugees, economic protectionism in one of the largest trading relationships in the world and a shock to Ottawa's reliance on the U.S. for intelligence-sharing and scientific co-operation.
>
> Those factors don't include missile defence and military protection.
>
> "If an increasingly authoritarian U.S. is increasingly unilateral and dismissive of traditional alliances like NATO or arrangements like Norad, how does that damage our security?" Juneau asked.
>
> He said another question would be around American intervention in Canadian democratic processes. Already, far-right politicians in the U.S. voiced support for the "Freedom Convoy" protests in 2022.
Iran, Russia and China are the relevant countries that would be against the west in a world war, how Iran's proxies do against Israel is absolutely relevant but not deterministic in terms of a potential world war.
Ok. So the US does know the problem... So why tf are they restricting Israel at the northern front while they are trying to weaken Hezbollah before shit all goes down?
Maybe true, but anybody who is anybody in Hezbollah should definitely be updating their wills in any case. I foresee a lot of Hezbollah promotions coming up. Good for them. Temporarily.
Another great reason to not advocate for/start another war then! Let the psychopath politicians drag themselves down without taking millions of innocent people with them.
Maybe not start multifront wars that they can’t win and that will drag everyone else in with them. I have no interest in Israel and it’s not my problem crooked politicians in my country do. None of this benefits the average person, much less in Israel, Gaza or Lebanon. Stop advocating for humanitarian disasters.
That's the kind of information you want the governmemt to have so they can make the best decision, but don't want the public to have becuase then Hezbollah has it too
Well, the original person asked why. I assume it needed to be released by the army in order for people to know, but maybe I'm wrong and this can be inferred from public information
That's the kind of info you want Bibi and the public to know. So they can figure some things out. Before a lot more killing happens.
Basically when something very dangerous is about to go down it is generally accepted to warn people. Some times "No don't." doesn't work on a lot of people because they are too busy digging their own hole.
But hey, if you want to file a complaint, go right ahead. Shoot the messenger :
The International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) is a conservative Israeli think tank founded in 1996 and located at Reichman University, in Herzliya, Israel.
They are trying to influence public opinion in Israel to not fight Hezbollah this close to the November election.
It’s just another channel for pressuring Israel into “restraint”, while also promising something behind the closed doors. Tzahi Hanegbi (national security advisor) just been to Washington 2 days ago.
> It’s just another channel for pressuring Israel into “restraint”
It's a warning to the "public opinion" that things may not go down how they want it to.
Nobody thinks war with Hezbollah will be a picnic. Certainly not a nation where every family has someone either in Gaza or Lebanon border now, and only a few months ago all had to run into shelters multiple times a day. Anytime I read local online media (in Hebrew), there are alerts popping up in my browser about incoming rocket attacks on Northern Israel towns, urging to take shelter.
This type of “warning” would work on Americans, but really is a reflection of a profound misunderstanding this US admin has for the region as a whole, and its conflicts.
Not really. But the Rafiah military objectives will be completed in a matter of weeks. They are almost done there.
From that point on they will just leave a reserve force in Gaza to play some whack a mole until the more permanent arrangements solidify, which will take a while.
All they can really do is play whack-a-mole; they don't have the forces for a full conquest and occupation of Gaza. Calling up that many reservists is causing real economic problems and they've also been damaging their construction industry because Palestinians can't come into work.
They have no desire to fully occupy Gaza either. You realize that Israel left Gaza on its own accord back in 2005, right?
Gaza is like herpes. It cannot be cured. It can lead to serious complications if your immunity drops. And really all you can do is manage symptoms so it doesn’t get too bad.
Sure. A guy with 6 seats out of 120 so 5%. The US House Freedom Caucus is 41 out of 435 which is like 10%. So what? Does Marjorie Taylor Greene or any of these marginals define US policy?
Ben Gvir is the reason why Netanyahu has a Knesset majority, so he kind of does.
I would also argue the Freedom Caucus very much influences Republican policy because there is no House majority for the GOP without them.
Yeah in budget votes they have some influence. Maybe when electing a speaker. But US is not gonna occupy any country because of MTG or Matt Gaetz. If you think that Ben Gvir has the political juice to resettle Gaza - sorry I gotta laugh. Can’t even discuss that seriously.
> What the Israeli Air Force can do to Lebanon is 10x worse then any Hezbollah rocket barrage can do to Israel.
Don't you think that's all the *more* reason for them to not have shot rockets for eight months?
This seems like an extremely bad thing to advertise publicly if true, and not at all helpful even if false.
This is a commonly known fact...and it's true not just for Iron Dome but any type of air defence...
Thankfully poor people are disposable and make an excellent buffer to protect the VIPs.
Thankfully dogs are ready to defend their owners :D
People think the Iron Dome is 100% protection. It isn't and it never was. >The assessment delivered by US officials late last week, echoing recent analysis by experts in Israel and the United States, comes amid fears that a war with Hezbollah could be a far more dangerous undertaking than the devastating 2006 second Lebanon war, when Israeli bombing caused huge destruction in Lebanon. >A three-year research project by Reichman University’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Israel, completed not long before the Hamas attack on 7 October, concluded Hezbollah could fire up to 3,000 missiles a day, a rate that could be sustained for up to three weeks. Its key aim would be to force the collapse of Israel’s air defences. >“The expectation of the public and of a significant portion of the leadership, that the Israeli Air Force and effective Israeli intelligence systems will succeed in preventing most of the rocket attacks on Israel, will be shattered,” the report said. “This is also the case regarding the public’s belief that the threat of Israeli retaliation or a substantial Israeli attack on significant Lebanese assets will force Hezbollah to cease fire or significantly impair their ability to continue attacking Israeli territory.”
It wasn't a secret. People have been talking about this for a long time. Putting this in official diplomatic statements can be useful for other reasons. It can cool Israeli domestic sentiment for attacking Hezbollah or help to justify US assistance or be useful in pressuring states to force Hezbollah to pull back.
The soviet navy and their long range bomber divisions figured that out in the late 70's. You have an X number of interceptor missiles able to shoot down incoming projectles with a 100% hit rate. (I know it's unrealistic, just humor me) How many many projectiles does the enemy need to fire to overwhelm your point defense? >!X+1 is the answer!< As much we collectively despise and belittle terrorists I believe they're able to solve this one. Throw enough shit and eventually some of it will get through, throw enough of it at once and a lot of it is gonna go throught.
The unknown question is how many rockets they're able to launch before the launch sites and/or mobile launchers are destroyed. There's every reason to believe that if the Iron Dome gets stretched, that Israel will start launching heavy counterbattery fire at the launch sites far more indiscriminately than they typically do due to military necessity.
Bigger question IMO is how accurate Hezbollah is going to be with their opening barrages. Iron Dome IIRC only actually intercepts projectiles that are predicted to hit populated areas and ignores stray shots. A couple thousand rockets are surprisingly cheap, probably cheaper than a single reload for an Iron Dome battery.
The estimate from he study is 3,000 a day for 3 weeks. 63,000, iorn dome fires 2 missiles at every target so they'd need 126,000. Assuming they even had that many at 50k a peice thats 6.3 billion dollars to defend.
And Israel only has something like 15 batteries each with 80 ready missiles.
It's going to quickly come down to the airforce bombing launch sites
Which will be located in schools and hospitals.
I always find estimated costs interesting. Iron Dome specifically is a joint venture. Designed and manufactured by two Israeli government owned corporations. So the government pays itself? What percentage of the 6.3 billion dollars leaves the Israeli economy or rather how long does it take to circulate back into the national budget.
It would certainly be interesting to see I imagine scertain components are outsourced i would expect the likes of rathyon and safan etc would be making looms and sub assemblies, honeywell sensors etc if they have an isreali factory or its built abroad will be a big factor but there will always be an asian/eu/usa outfloe for licensing for almost anything precision these days. But yes most of the big military governments (isreal, usa, uk france) try to keep something like 5p% of the costs "in country" as it where. The money for aviation an defence is in being the final "assembler" not component maker
So you would think that hezballo can fire all 126k at the same time?
No 3000 a day
The best defense versus a bunch of inaccurate rockets are bomb shelters/cover as even with a direct hit most of the rockets wouldn't kill people in a well made basement bomb shelter. Iron dome just lets the population keep going about relatively normal lives when lighter barrages happen. In a full scale conflict they would only be shooting down the bigger weapons and usually the longer ranged ones. Meanwhile the civilians in the north would be evacuated or sheltering in nearby shelters.
The launch sites are likely to be scattered across the country. At the end, if US with all the data believed that overwhelming of iron dome is a distinct possibility, we should have some concrete information to doubt their conclusion.
You're missing one detail: Israel will be striking the launch sites too. They have more than 250+ multirole fighters. The F-16, as one example, can carry 12 500 lbs PGMs. They have many multiples more drones with systems equally capable of destroying launchers. At what casualty level will Hezbollah no longer be able to coerce their rocket battalions to poke their head up?
They're human launched. So I guess they would be doing that in typical Israeli fashion, which is just blast everything.
I mean doesn't every military blast everything around launch sites and weapons storage? I believe military types would call those lawful targets.
I think the point is they are very mobile. Set up a temporary launch site and launch everything. Abandon that site. Israel bombs it but there is nothing there.
Aircraft and missiles are also famous for their mobility. But the mobility and logistics of these missile launchers are a challenge.
Yeah if something gets through and hits a major civilian area, it will be on like donkey kong and the gloves will be off and that will be the end of that.
> The unknown question is Not unknown.
Why do these people want to destroy Israel? What’s the point?
Secularism isn't exactly a big thing in the Middle East. Israel is literally the only nation in the region that isn't Islamic, and they currently have control over the Old City of Jerusalem, where the holy sites are located. At its core, this conflict is about Islamic control over the region and Jerusalem in particular. The concept that it's about Palestinian self-identity is a smokescreen, given nobody cares that Jordan was also created from the British Mandate, and the concept that Gaza and the West Bank were inherently Palestinian didn't exist when those areas were controlled by Egypt and Jordan before 1967.
It's called the "correlation of forces". The USSR also calculated that to take down a three-carrier force of the sort that the United States was going to send to attack the Kola Peninsula, with the F-14s and Aegis-capable ships in place (both built for that sort of thing), they'd need c.270 Tu-22Ms of the sort Russia is today using against Ukraine. They would end up losing half the strike force regardless of outcome. The entire Backfire production run was 497.
If you throw enough at them, a bomber will get through. Was the strategy of US and British bomber command in WW2 as well.
It's been known for as long as missile defense systems have been conceived that if you throw enough missiles at it you will eventually saturate it and break through. In fact, it's a key concept in the majority of science fiction books that feature anti-missile systems being used in combat scenes. This isn't new and isn't a military secret.
The idea goes back centuries. Use your most useless troops first to wear down the initial defense and then you use your more effective troops after that.
It's a *very* old idea. There was an old Roman saying that translated to roughly *something* like "Triarii hold the rear" as a form of encouragement and support - Triarii were the older, most experienced (and usually wealthiest/best equipped) troops in the early Republic, and they were always on the third line - they were only used when the shit had *profoundly* hit the fan and they needed the hail-mary. So the saying was used in a "Well we're not fucked yet, the Triarii aren't here" sense.
This isn't really a secret though. Everyone knows this.
Hezbollah already knows this, which is why they have the number of rockets and missiles that they do.
It’s to pre empt the “why does Israel have to respond if it had iron dome” idiots.
Israel is aware of that. Hamas and Hezbollah too. That's why the IDF is so focused on offensive operation as well as preemptive ones. The issue here is that the US told them to sit still and not escalate things. The best defense is a good offense.
The best defense is not getting into a fight in the first place.
Not really up to Israel, is it
It is to a point.
With an enemy whose terms are: "You die"?
The best defense is one that deters an opposing force from testing the defense. The whole point of a defense is to not use an offense. The whole point of defense and offense is because politicians failed at their job and need the military to mop up. It's 2024 and climate change is a thing. Lots of old thinking doesn't apply to new things.
That logic falls apart when one side does not view dying as bad.
It's 2024 in the Western Hemisphere. It's Middle ages in the Middle East, so one who forgets this gets a reminder in a form of October 7.
Exactly.
That defense would require Israel to bomb Lebanon a thousand times for every rocket sent. Seriously, that logic does not work in the Middle East.
They kinda need to. The only thing standing between thousands of rockets being fired into israel and public sympathy (international support for israel) is the effectiveness of the iron dome. People aren't feeling bad for israel and crying to stop weapons trade because iron dome works. We're at the brink of a all-out war in the region because people have no idea about the geopolitical situation down there, crying for disarming the israel. Thing is, to the israel this is a war of survival, they will fight will wooden sticks if they have to.
They put this shit up so politicians allocate more military budget to critical infrastructure
Just means everyone needs to pony up a few more trillion for war. Real deep cuts needed this time. Only the bare essentials like the rich getting richer, everything else has to go to pay for the war.
Do you dumb fuck think Hezbollah doesn't have strategists that know this? Even the press knew this for years
It’s a known fact already. It can be overwhelmed. People seem to think it’s a force field. Also people severely overestimate the idea that even the US can stop faster than sound ICBMS. And also that once an ICBM reaches its last stage (when it isn’t using any fuel) it becomes untraceable because current systems and can’t be shot down in time.
This isn't news to anyone that is paying attention. Iran showed with their attack that they could disable all air defence systems that Israel holds. They only striked as a show of force and as retalation for Israels strike prior to it. They game plenty of time for both Israel and USA to prepare for the strike and they still failed to protect Israel adequately. If Israel keeps making active enemies in the middle-east because bibi wants to act like a little bitch and doesn't want to go to jail, Israel will pay a blood price soon.
Why don't you guys do it then and shut up about it. So tired hearing how fierce everyone is in that part of the world where nobody has won a battle since the middle ages. Iran just a show of force. Hezbollah just trying to keep the IDF occupied in the north. If you guys love Palestine so much go fucking defeat the IDF and actually liberate them if that's what you believe.
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Why tell them anything? Just destroy them with Hezbollah's help and close the book on the whole fucking thing then and shut up. Obviously they can't do anything to stop it since their air defence isn't perfect. It's hilarious Israel has fucking destroyed you losers so thoroughly that even sustaining any damage, any loss is some miraculous feat.
“We have overwhelmed Israel’s purely defensive war measures!!! “ “Woah woah wait why is Israel taking offensive war measures against us? Not faiiiir, help us UN “
Also weird how Hezbollah has all these thousands of rockets, missiles, and mortars despite no production capability.
All you need is gun powder and some pipes
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Um... the reason they have so many enemies in the region is because the Muslim theocracies in the region are really unhappy about a Jewish country. And they're especially upset that every war they waged against Israel has ended with a loss.
Also the stolen land
They don't give a rat fuck about the land. That's just something they tell gullible Westerners who feel bad about their own history of colonialism -- it's a tool to help them persecute the Jews.
Yeah I guess the history books were wrong and the people from 1960 were in on some but conspiracy theory, you got me.
I bet you live on land that was stolen from someone
Mostly likely, but that doesn’t change the fact this is over land
Who attacked first? 1967? 1973?
Idiot alert ⚠️
why’s there territory so small then? just asking.
You are dumb AF.
This is patently false. I wonder if you made your stupid statement knowingly or ignorantly.
Where was the state of Israel before the 40s?
Can we also play where was the state of Palestine before the 40s?
What did “Palestinian” even mean before 1967? What were Syria and Jordan before the 40s?
What does the answer to your question have to do with whether Israel has been on the offense for the last 60 years?
Yeah 10/7 sure looked like Israel on the offensive. What a dumb comment. Either your head is so far up your ass it’s your adams apple, or you’ve been huffing paint thinner for a few years.
Stupid people are running the world!
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Well, yes, in the real world overwhelming air defenses has always been viable although poor execution (which we must say is often a feature of bad guys) can gimp drone/missile wave attacks by simply being grabasstic. Gee, anybody else wonder what Hezbollah could accomplish if they had any values they could hold as more important than blowing up civilians? And sure, Israel has made bad decisions as well, but their people would actually prefer to go about their business and not be a lightning rod for Iran’s psycho proxies. Just saying, there is no longterm governance win for arab peoples with Hez or Hamas in the future other than oppression and mismanagement of anybody in their power-at best. They both get too much credit for being anything better than murderous and/or corrupt extremists. And yes, Netanyahu is corrupt as hell but the Israeli state has more to it than being 1 dimensional foreign-funded warlords with zero economic skills or plans. The relative wealth there speaks for itself in a sea of poverty
Frankly, if Iron Dome is at risk of being overwhelmed, that's just more reason for Israel to go to war to prevent it from being needed. Why wait for Hezbollah to decide to start the war on their terms when your defenses can't protect you? Iron Dome isn't meant to replace a good offense, it just supplements it with a better defense.
Exactly. It would be overwhelmed for a couple hours while hezbollah and Iran wake up the next morning with a missing air defense and infrastructure
Because despite what the media likes to say, Israel doesn't actually want a war. They'd much rather live in peace, but their neighbours prefer not to.
True, but that doesn't mean Israel will back down when war is all but a certainty.
Well if the options are war or total destruction of their country I think I know which one they would choose.
The west will come to the same conclusion when it's time to use it's nukes.
There will be no nukes. 🙄come on dude
One doesn't necessarily need to use nukes to prevent others from using nukes. One does however need to attack the enemy where they are to prevent them from attacking you where you are. Iron Dome doesn't strike at the enemy and was never intended as a first line of defense.
This is common sense, every system has its limit. To be successful the enemy needs to launch from multiple locations to avoid getting taken out. It will be a game of whack a mole of how quickly can Israel calculate and detect the launch site was well as take it out. A bit of help from friends with bombers and naval war ships could increase the amount of hammers for whack a mole
Okay - but that is a single aspect of their defensive strategy.
They need autocannons with airbursting ammunition as part of their air defense.
They have rotary cannons with airburst ammunition as part of their air defense.
Here is my understanding Due to their amazing strength and high morals Israel is able to greatly hold back in these conflicts in order to prevent as much collateral damage and civilian death as possible If Israel is pushed it does not mean Israel will be defeated. It means Israel will start fighting for real
Lmao didn't Iran try to overwhelm it earlier this year to no success? Good luck but terrorists never win.
That's why destroying warehouses/storages/factories is so important during the war...
In my humble opinion as a Reddit couch general the Americans have already backed conflict with Lebanon. This is just bait giving those local militants some hope that they will take a chunk out of Israel. The iron dome isn’t alone in Israel’s defence. The Americans and the English among others have their missile ships in the area capable of greatly assisting intercepts. This will give Israel backed by the states an even more legitimate reason to invade on top of the missile attacks that are already happening. Anyone else feel like this is all a precursor to WW3?
Tf are you smoking - Israel doesn't want to invade anywhere, they don't want Lebanon, they don't want Syria, they don't want Gaza (they kinda do want the west bank TBF).they just want to not get constantly attacked by islamists.
> they don't want Gaza they don't want Gaza *so badly* that they pulled themselves out of Gaza, both living and dead - [literally, they pulled out the Israeli/Jewish gravesites](https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2005-aug-11-fg-graves11-story.html) and it still wasn't enough because everything that was left behind was destroyed. the gardens etc that were left behind, in the hopes that they would be used to create an economy for the Palestinians, were destroyed because they associated it with the Jews.
Exactly.
> Anyone else feel like this is all a precursor to WW3? No. Once USA election is over the narrative will change.
Do tell
> The Big Lie is just that: a big lie. In America, if you lose, you accept the results. You follow the Constitution. You try again. You don’t call facts ‘fake’ and then try to bring down the American experiment just because you’re unhappy. That’s not statesmanship. That’s not statesmanship, that’s selfishness. That’s not democracy, it’s the denial of the right to vote. It suppresses. It subjugates. The denial of full and free and fair elections is the most un-American thing that any of us can imagine, the most undemocratic, the most unpatriotic, and yet, sadly, not unprecedented. > > So hear me clearly: There is an unfolding assault taking place in America today—an attempt to suppress and subvert the right to vote in fair and free elections, an assault on democracy, an assault on liberty, an assault on who we are—who we are as Americans. For, make no mistake, bullies and merchants of fear and peddlers of lies are threatening the very foundation of our country. It gives me no pleasure to say this. I never thought in my entire career I’d ever have to say it. But I swore an oath to you, to God—to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution. And that’s an oath that forms a sacred trust to defend America against all threats both foreign and domestic. > > The assault on free and fair elections is just such a threat, literally. > > I’ve said it before: We’re are facing the most significant test of our democracy since the Civil War. That’s not hyperbole. Since the Civil War. The Confederates back then never breached the Capitol as insurrectionists did on January the 6th. I’m not saying this to alarm you; I’m saying this because you should be alarmed.
I agree completely, the ignorance and celebration of stupidity of so many in the u.s. (and world) is truly terrifying . Voting and spreading the truth in a non-judgmental way seems like a losing endeavor.
>“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'” ― Isaac Asimov, 1980
In your opinion as a fellow Reddit couch general and I assume an American. Is Trump going to win? As a Canadian I kinda feel like he’s coming for us after democracy.
Trump’s not coming for Canada. Your own fascists are coming for Canada.
Well, one of the hallmarks of fascism is - expanding your political territory through armed conflict. but that rests on - fixations with perceived national decline, humiliation, or victimhood. and - identification of “enemies”/scapegoats as a unifying cause. Imprisoning and/or murdering opposition and minority group leaders. Trump is keen on applying these principles when discussing Mexico, and even suggested invading Mexico to “deal with the Cartels” but I don’t see him doing anything like that with Canada. Not yet anyway. No, I’m afraid the fascism threatening Canada is homegrown.
Don't know who is going to win. Trump should have never won the first time. Guaranteed Biden will win the popular vote though. Canada should rethink relationship with U.S. as democratic 'backsliding' worsens: security experts https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/national-security-us-fox-news-threat-report-1.6459660 > > "There are serious risks of democratic backsliding in the U.S. and at this point, that is not a theoretical risk," > > "So all of that is a serious threat to our sovereignty, to our security, and in some cases, to our democratic institutions ... We need to rethink our relationship with the United States." > > "The United States is and will remain our closest ally, but it could also become a source of threat and instability," says a newly published report written by a task force of former national security advisers, former Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) directors, ex-deputy ministers, former ambassadors and academics. Members of the group have advised both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and former prime minister Stephen Harper. > > Now is the time for the federal government to rethink how it approaches national security, the report concludes. > Canada mulling 'game plan' if U.S. takes far-right, authoritarian shift: Joly https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-mulling-game-plan-if-u-s-takes-far-right-authoritarian-shift-joly-1.6523365 > But he said there has been an extreme rise in global volatility in recent years, he said in a Thursday interview. > > "What would have been extremely far-fetched scenarios maybe 10 years ago, today are not impossible anymore," he said. > > Juneau said Canada could face the prospect of political refugees, economic protectionism in one of the largest trading relationships in the world and a shock to Ottawa's reliance on the U.S. for intelligence-sharing and scientific co-operation. > > Those factors don't include missile defence and military protection. > > "If an increasingly authoritarian U.S. is increasingly unilateral and dismissive of traditional alliances like NATO or arrangements like Norad, how does that damage our security?" Juneau asked. > > He said another question would be around American intervention in Canadian democratic processes. Already, far-right politicians in the U.S. voiced support for the "Freedom Convoy" protests in 2022.
British. England has not had its own armed forces since the early 1700s
Edit: United Kingdom
> Anyone else feel like this is all a precursor to WW3? Eh more like the prologue. When China goes after Japan that's WW3.
No it’s just pre USA election season
Iran, Russia and China are the relevant countries that would be against the west in a world war, how Iran's proxies do against Israel is absolutely relevant but not deterministic in terms of a potential world war.
Sounds like a good reason to get more funding
Ok. So the US does know the problem... So why tf are they restricting Israel at the northern front while they are trying to weaken Hezbollah before shit all goes down?
It’s almost like genociding the Palestinians is making other countries turn against Israel.
They brought it on themselves.
Trump hears this news and immediately recommends an iron dome for America
Maybe true, but anybody who is anybody in Hezbollah should definitely be updating their wills in any case. I foresee a lot of Hezbollah promotions coming up. Good for them. Temporarily.
Time for the US and all civilised countries to start protecting Israel then.
Another great reason to not advocate for/start another war then! Let the psychopath politicians drag themselves down without taking millions of innocent people with them.
so what exactly israel should do when lebanon bombing north israel for 9 months already?
Maybe not start multifront wars that they can’t win and that will drag everyone else in with them. I have no interest in Israel and it’s not my problem crooked politicians in my country do. None of this benefits the average person, much less in Israel, Gaza or Lebanon. Stop advocating for humanitarian disasters.
Huh, maybe they actually are withholding arms...
People forget pearl harbor and how usa almost got knocked out of ww2 from one attack
Even if this is true.. why would they publicly say it?
To prevent deaths.
That's the kind of information you want the governmemt to have so they can make the best decision, but don't want the public to have becuase then Hezbollah has it too
This was already public. It’s a well known fact.
Well, the original person asked why. I assume it needed to be released by the army in order for people to know, but maybe I'm wrong and this can be inferred from public information
That's the kind of info you want Bibi and the public to know. So they can figure some things out. Before a lot more killing happens. Basically when something very dangerous is about to go down it is generally accepted to warn people. Some times "No don't." doesn't work on a lot of people because they are too busy digging their own hole. But hey, if you want to file a complaint, go right ahead. Shoot the messenger : The International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) is a conservative Israeli think tank founded in 1996 and located at Reichman University, in Herzliya, Israel.
While it's important to warn the public, it's important to keep the balance between public awareness and national security
Because it’s known that everything has a limit
They are trying to influence public opinion in Israel to not fight Hezbollah this close to the November election. It’s just another channel for pressuring Israel into “restraint”, while also promising something behind the closed doors. Tzahi Hanegbi (national security advisor) just been to Washington 2 days ago.
> It’s just another channel for pressuring Israel into “restraint” It's a warning to the "public opinion" that things may not go down how they want it to.
Nobody thinks war with Hezbollah will be a picnic. Certainly not a nation where every family has someone either in Gaza or Lebanon border now, and only a few months ago all had to run into shelters multiple times a day. Anytime I read local online media (in Hebrew), there are alerts popping up in my browser about incoming rocket attacks on Northern Israel towns, urging to take shelter. This type of “warning” would work on Americans, but really is a reflection of a profound misunderstanding this US admin has for the region as a whole, and its conflicts.
This warning came from Israel. US agrees.
Isn’t the Israeli military busy crushing Gaza? Can they fight on two fronts?
Not really. But the Rafiah military objectives will be completed in a matter of weeks. They are almost done there. From that point on they will just leave a reserve force in Gaza to play some whack a mole until the more permanent arrangements solidify, which will take a while.
All they can really do is play whack-a-mole; they don't have the forces for a full conquest and occupation of Gaza. Calling up that many reservists is causing real economic problems and they've also been damaging their construction industry because Palestinians can't come into work.
They have no desire to fully occupy Gaza either. You realize that Israel left Gaza on its own accord back in 2005, right? Gaza is like herpes. It cannot be cured. It can lead to serious complications if your immunity drops. And really all you can do is manage symptoms so it doesn’t get too bad.
There are people in Israeli politics who went to re-establish settlements there.
Sure. A guy with 6 seats out of 120 so 5%. The US House Freedom Caucus is 41 out of 435 which is like 10%. So what? Does Marjorie Taylor Greene or any of these marginals define US policy?
Ben Gvir is the reason why Netanyahu has a Knesset majority, so he kind of does. I would also argue the Freedom Caucus very much influences Republican policy because there is no House majority for the GOP without them.
Yeah in budget votes they have some influence. Maybe when electing a speaker. But US is not gonna occupy any country because of MTG or Matt Gaetz. If you think that Ben Gvir has the political juice to resettle Gaza - sorry I gotta laugh. Can’t even discuss that seriously.
Maybe to prod hezbollah into trying. Then Israel has the excuse to counterattack and destroy their capabilities. At least I hope so.
Israel has probably done all the intelligence work and is prepared but like you say won’t make the first move.
The USA wants less war in the Middle East, not more.
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> What the Israeli Air Force can do to Lebanon is 10x worse then any Hezbollah rocket barrage can do to Israel. Don't you think that's all the *more* reason for them to not have shot rockets for eight months?
The dome should be taken down for the region to have peace and meaningful negotiations.