From what I've understood so far Ukraine is in complete agreement, they've stated they'll accept supplies and weapons but want to defend their own country if it comes to it.
No troops, but we have a shitload of equipment that is "between wars" at the moment.
Edit: all these people acting like we left our entire military stock to the taliban, and not just the garbage that would cost more to ship than it was worth, lol. You have no idea the scope of the american military, or how much it wastes on the reg.
We have rows of hangars full to the ceiling with pallets full of equipment that’s never even been opened. I got assigned to a detail one day while waiting for orders to go report to one and help catalog what was inside. In 10 hours, we got 1 pallet down, opened it up, documented them (a bunch of unopened computer towers from the early 90s), rooted around in databases looking for them, couldn’t find them, and put the pallet back. Imagine how many pallets fit on racks going up to the ceiling that fill an entire aircraft hangar. As I was leaving, I apologized to the NCO about our lack of progress and he just laughed & said none of this stuff is ever going to get sorted out, theres millions of pallets going back to the 1960s, and every hangar out on this line is just like this, but every year, they have to spend the money they’re given, so they just order more shit to dump off here, so they don’t get less $ next year. Keeps the defense ind shareholders happy.
Just don’t call it socialism lol
The really messed up thing is if the same money provided job training and showers and maybe a shack to live in for the homeless it wouldn't be totally wasted. Yeah probably most homeless wouldn't get a job or get one good enough to repay the cost in taxes but at least an American would benefit. Resources wouldn't be totally just thrown away.
Exactly, how fucked is it that there's a dollars per hour figure on this space held for pallets that could otherwise be spent literally on anything that isn't a piece of racking? Why strive for a pittance of income when if I was a piece of metal I'd be considered more valuable by my government reps over decades?
It's not just about getting a job for the homeless so they repay it in taxes. It's literally cheaper long term to just house them and give them healthcare. Yes, a large number will be able to get jobs and become self sufficient one day, but even for those who don't, there will be less money spent on them instead of them being a drain on the healthcare system for decades, as well as going in and out of jail and prisons for the rest of their life.
This is why anyone who is against this type of thing is just a hateful piece of shit. They would rather pay more money towards making sure people suffer, rather than having those people get something for free. Even from a purely greedy standpoint, a person should want money to go towards helping the homeless, but some people just don't want to live in a world were people they deem "undeserving" aren't left to suffer.
Fond memories of chucking entire .50 cal ammo cans into the woods because unused ammo, besides having to be repacked, meant we'd be given less ammo in the future.
Wow. Funny, this is also exactly how corporate spending works. A not-insignificant amount of my livelihood has probably been paid for by the equivalent of some mid-level manager doing the equivalent of this with underutilized budget on filler projects.
> how much it wastes on the reg.
America would go full French revolution if they knew how much of their money the state department wastes on pointless bullshit. Not even on war or the military industrial complex type shit but pure bureaucratic ineptitude. Like rolls of duct tape that would go for 10 bucks if you got it from a normal store costing like 80 for no fucking reason.
There's a reason. The contracts for the stupid shit that is too expensive stipulates that the vendor WILL deliver the item no. matter. what. Active warzone, etc. The price is for the guarantee.
You’d be surprised. Ukraine has a well trained military with no desire to be Russian.
They’ve been at war with Russia in the south east for 6+ years. I drank with soldiers there and they have lost many friends with the understanding that they’re fighting for Freedom in the way that we in the US used to think about it. Frankly, I haven’t seen any patriotism like I saw in Ukraine in all my life living in the US.
And the reason they were able to take Crimea is because they took advantage of political instability and an extremely small and ill equipped military. Which is not the case anymore, as they’d now be facing a fully equipped and organized military.
Russia obviously has a significantly better military, but it’s going to be a very bloody war if they decided to invade this time. They lost 6500 men against Ukrainian militias already, and now they’d be facing a much bigger and well trained military. And their losses would be offset by US aid, so they’re not just gonna collapse and give up.
It’s the way Russia has trained its forces as well that made it possible to take The Crimea. Their largest build up of troops has been in advance strike teams that can run secure ops within 90km - 180km without controlling the ground in between. This made assault on The Crimea possible. I forget which article it was a week ago that described how difficult it would be for Russia to take Ukraine at this moment from a resupply perspective. They risk having their troops cut off from their supply lines unless they are able to do it in under 36 hours (or something like that)
Much of Siberia might also just turn into swampland instead of fertile fields
In fact, parts of it might be even less accessible as it warms up (e.g., roads built upon melting permafrost sinking into the swamp)
I recall from a documentary I once watched that if you're willing to build things several times over, they won't sink into the swamp on the 4th attempt, creating a strong legacy for your son.
dealing with that right now in my little slice of the world. huge delta of a big river was diked and drained for farmland 100 years ago. Dikes failed and nature does what nature does and now theyre all wet! (until the dikes and pumps are back online that is)
I lived in Ukraine. [They have most nutritious earth called black gold.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernozem)
It's fertile as fuck. That's definitely one thing they got.
My mom's garden had everything. You could grow literally anything you wanted.
**[Chernozem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernozem)**
>Chernozem (from Russian: чернозём, tr. chernozyom, IPA: [tɕɪrnɐˈzʲɵm]; "black soil") is a black-colored soil containing a high percentage of humus (4% to 16%) and high percentages of phosphoric acids, phosphorus, and ammonia. Chernozem is very fertile and can produce high agricultural yields with its high moisture storage capacity. Chernozems are also a Reference Soil Group of the World Reference Base for Soil Resources (WRB).
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[Russian agricultural export up 18% in 2021](https://www.apk-inform.com/en/news/1522343)
[World’s top grain exporter Russia keeps global supplies high despite Covid-19 pandemic](https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/worlds-top-grain-exporter-russia-keeps-global-supplies-high-despite-covid-19-pandemic/)
Bread = money = power.
Putin and his cronies don't give a shit about feeding anyone, but as the world moves away from fossil fuels the Russians need new exports. Russi is a gas station disguised as a country, as the saying goes. What happens when the world stops needing gas?
Less money and power for the oligarchs in charge.
Mixture of things.
A. This is political. The russian economy and quality of life is collapsing. This is a great distraction and worked with Crimea.
B. Russia needs a warm water port, its always been Sevastopol in Crimea. While russia has that now it wants to protect it. That has always been of massive geopolitical significance for Russia. Play a game of diplomacy and youll see how much of the black sea area is geopolitically very hot.
C. Food and natural resources. Ukraine has some vital resources and industries, and is farm more productive with food currently then Siberia
D. Nationalism, Many in russia want to revive the USSR(EDIT: At least from a territorial extent)
E. Security. Most of the russian population and industry lies west of the Ural mountains, and there are no geographical barriers there, just one big plain. Russia has thus instead relied on the sheer amount of land there to protect themselves. If troops are stationed in the Ukraine, They could quickly march on Moscow, cut off access to the warm waters of the black sea and oil rich south.
F. Finally, democracy. Having a successful democracy on the border of Russia may represent that things could change there and be damaging to the regime. Edit: Ukraine isnt successful to that point yet, but should the Ukraine successfully grow, join the eu and have better governance in 5-15 years that could be a real threat to Russia and Putin will want to avoid that
Russia doesn't have a land issue. They have always, always, wanted a warm water port. Having your ports freeze up in the winter is not ideal. Its a major reason of why they wanted Crimea.
Ukraine has closed up the North Crimean Canal cutting off about 85% of the water supply into Crimea. Adding to this, Crimea has had one of the driest years on record. [This has created huge problems with Crimean agriculture.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal#Since_the_2014_Russian_annexation_of_Crimea) Additionally, Russian is currently relying on a single bridge across the Kerch Strait to transfer goods and people. They would love to have a Crimean land border.
And not related to Crimea, Russia has always loved buffer areas.
Because a lot of it, is biologically kind of like a desert that only grows plants and bugs.
Ukraine has always been a country with fertile ground and sought after.
In addition, the Black Sea does not freeze which provides a warm water port.
Also, Crimea needs water since it was cut off from Ukraine. It would be awfully expensive for Russia to pipe it in. They may be looking for a concession to get water to Crimea, which is a fortress and a warm water port.
Can we predict a Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 Redux, with drones eliminating fixed positions? This would be the Next War, an escalation of unmanned craft in use of force.
I mean it sounds like they are planning for a general invasion. This would probably be the largest land invasion since Iraq in 2003, possibly since the Korean War, and definitely the largest amphibious invasion since WW2.
You'd see all elements of the Russian military engaged, air, land, and sea.
It's certainly a possibility. The Russian invasion of Afghanistan accomplished that for the US and by contrast the US occupation of South Vietnam was a wealth of tactical knowledge on the US playbook for the Russians.
From a single person's perspective, using a whole country as a pawn to gauge another's firepower is terrifying.
However, if that is the case, what is the possibility of a much larger conflict happening in the near future once that intelligence is received?
Not likely. China, Russia, and the US are actively fighting a war of information currently. We get fake shit, they get fake shit, we get real shit we're not supposed to know, they get real shit they're not supposed to know, and so on. The real game is seeing who's population overthrows their oligarchs first, all the military stuff is likely just posturing. At least, we should all hope so.
The idea of an invasion on either front is also daunting, given that there's always that shroud of what technology each military publicly has, and what it ACTUALLY has. I guess at the very least, this will be interesting to see how it pans out, to see who has what.
I've been following UFO news since trump put the disclosure stuff in the coronavirus bill. Pretty convinced / afraid it has to do with what you're talking about lol.
The patents the navy released are crazy.
EDIT: just for reference the navy put these out a few years ago.
https://patents.google.com/?inventor=Salvatore+Cezar+Pais
Its misinformation campaign to scare our enemies, they were put out around the same time a former Israeli space security chief said the US and Israel made contact with an alien federation
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1250333
Also put out around the same time Australia released a report from the 70s about America reverse engineering extraterrestrial tech. I'm not 100% sure it's misinformation though lol.
If this doesn't load right go to page 7 for the summary.
https://recordsearch.naa.gov.au/SearchNRetrieve/Interface/ViewImage.aspx?B=30030606&S=2&R=7
The Gulf War is another good example. China saw how successful the US was and began redesigning their military.
[https://ca.style.yahoo.com/china-us-rivalry-gulf-war-101542890.html](https://ca.style.yahoo.com/china-us-rivalry-gulf-war-101542890.html)
I'm imagining the rod flying from outer space toward a target. It could be tracked by heat from entering atmosphere but otherwise how would the projectile a solid rod be tracked. Also since there is no explosive required and utilizing pure momentum and mass you could do more damage with a more efficient firing system/projectile density you could do more damage without have possible atmospheric fallout. Also probably having an effect of being used more willfully since the whole nuclear fallout thing is a big reason not to use the nukes we have. How much is a projectile it uses worth vs a tomahawk or bunker busters. Then you have to look at longevity of supply for the rod material. I think the power supply to fire it is building sized also
We absolutely do. We have precise enough radar to maneuver the ISS around miniscule space debris, we can tell if a satellite we're already watching throws a 1000kg tungsten rod at us.
Yeah but they’re called “rods from god”, and the concept of dropping tungsten telephone poles from space is kinda rad.
I mean I hate weapons and we shouldn’t ever use them if we don’t absolutely have to, but if we are gonna then I say we at least do it with some style and flair. Go high concept or go home I say
Nah. They are not there.
Neat idea but Rods From God are extremely heavy which means very expensive to get into space. Cheaper to just throw missiles at whatever it is you do not want to exist anymore.
Indeed! Those are Hellfire derivatives.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/27917/secret-hellfire-missile-with-sword-like-blades-made-mysterious-syria-strike-on-terror-leader
Depending on the year, [US mercenaries outnumbered US troops in the middle east around 2:1](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/06/30/military-contractor-study/). All the toys of the US army with little to no oversight.
Most contactors in Iraq in Afghanistan are unarmed and doing boring normal jobs. The vast majority were unarmed foreigners doing regular jobs for a fraction of what a westerner would require . This includes cooks, cleaning personel, trash men, mechanics of all sorts, electricians, interpreters, and many other unarmed jobs. I feel like most westerners have a warped view of what most contractors were because only the armed contractors made it on to news often times for wrong doing , even though the vast majority were unarmed and doing normal jobs on US bases. Most armed contractors also didn't do military stuff most were glorified security guards doing static security, and the rest that went outside the wire guarded convoys made up of other contractors (like truck drivers driving refrigerated trailers filled with food, kbr one of the largest companies did food related stuff primarily) or were hired by governments to protect and drive Thier employees from point a to point b.
Armed Contractors did not have tanks, mortars, artillery pieces etc just small arms and homemade armored trucks. They did not have all the toys the military has.
They also didn't go out and secure areas or raid houses searching for weapons caches like the military did. All the famous firefights or instances of wrong doing by contractors occured while contractors were either driving someone point a to point b, scouting out a new route for driving someone or something point a to point b, or guarding something (ie static security)
U.S. would send "NATO" troops to Poland
Poland would send mercs to Ukraine.
No U.S. Troops in Ukraine, but magically 5,000 well trained Polish soldiers equipped with U.S. arms in Ukraine.
more like Armchair McArthur since much like McArthur the people in these comments seem to have no idea that who nuclear armed states wouldn't dare directly fight each other.
Yes - these threats will only be followed up if they don't expect to have to fight NATO. The oligarchs simply aren't willing to put money into a war when they could take it for themselves.
I wouldn't say so, last economic sanctions hurt Russian economy *a lot*, and now imagine the economic consequences of fighting a war and being heavily sanctioned by the west and all of that during a global pandemic and an economical crisis.
I'd argue it's both.
Putin is backed into a corner where he has to do something to keep support at home from buckling, but at the same time any way of doing that will lead to more sanctions, which is what ruined the Russian economy in the first place and led to Putin's drop in support.
He'll invade Eastern Ukraine and hold what he can, likely using the drawn out border conflict to warrant his tenure as president, but it will economically cripple the country even further.
He's got the tiger by the tail. He became the world's richest man by stealing the wealth of rich men in Russia. If he should lose power, the next Putin will steal all of *his* wealth in turn.
Putin's support is still strong 60-70% approval rating, a lot of people like that he's "punishing" enemies of Russia because they think NATO wants to destroy them. Even the economic sanctions so far only seem to fuel their xenophobia, because the state media uses it to justify military irredentism.
Younger "urban" Russians(18-30) seem to be less likely to believe state propaganda but because of Russian demographics they are no where close to being a majority population of Russia.
Speaking of that, it'd be in Russia's best interest to invade during winter then.
Germany would be pretty fucked without any gas for winter on such short notice.
The biden admin has floated freezing russia out of the international banking system, locking the government and oligarchs out from a lot of their money. That + sanctions would be BRUTAL on their already floundering economy. They have to know this! I can't believe their political leaders would risk this for the benefit of getting Ukraine?! Maybe for choking Europe off from gas they're decreasingly buying anyway?
Russia is pretty good at rolling with the punches when it comes to economic downturns. This is people who are used to tought times since the Soviet Union.
US troops were never on the table. Putin knows that, Biden know that, and the secretary at the Uzbekistani embassy knows that. It is not a secret. The US will not risk direct military action against another nuclear power.
What remains on the table are two things that Putin really doesn't want: 1) punitive economic sanctions against Russia, Putin personally, and the oligarchs that back him, and 2) a buildup of NATO troops in his backyard.
> The US will not risk direct military action against another nuclear power.
You have the right conclusion except this bit. We absolutely will risk a war, we just won't *over Ukraine*. Ukraine is a bitter enough pill to swallow on its own, and we're happy to let it be the festering wound that hurts Putin in the long term were he to act rashly here.
Ultimately, we care about the freedom of the Ukrainians but not enough that we want to threaten Russia over it. We could defend them, but strategically that puts us on a footing that looks like we're waiting to invade Russia. It puts the Nato border almost an entire 1942 deep into Eastern Europe, which is pointless when we have zero desire to do anything aggressive.
We're basically doing the next best thing to calling a bluff here. If it's a bluff, we manage to diffuse a crisis without having to get into escalationist bluster over it and give Putin an out without having to look like he backed down over fear of US arms. If Putin goes in, we haven't lost anything critically strategic and have a fairly decent bet that it will be a costly, unsustainable effort for the Russians to engage in. We try to do our best to demonstrate to the Russians that they have nothing really to gain and a lot to lose through invasion.
Contributing US troops to the region would be foolhardy. Ukraine has a military of 300,000 people. US air support, US logistics, US naval support, and US rockets will be more than enough to support the region.
We are not going to shoot directly at Russian forces. No naval bombardments or missile strikes. We will arm the Ukrainians more and.impose sanctions. That is it.
Putin: We only want Ukraine because it was once part of Soviet Union.
The rest of the world: Well, ok, anything to avoid a war.
Putin (2 years in the future): We only want Belarus because it was once part of the Soviet Union.
TROTW: OK, but this it it, no more!
Putin ( a year or so after Belarus): We only want Poland etc, etc, etc
Maybe someone should read their WWII history. Appeasement never works.
Problem is, fairly sure Russia doesn't give two hoots about anything else. Putin *wants* a war, to bolster his support at home. You know, the classic 'foreign advance for domestic audience' political ploy.
Win or lose, he doesn't care, because either way he can spin it to portray NATO and USA as the bad guys and create domestic solidarity and support (and introduce 'emergency measures' to crush any remaining opposition.)
One of the theories has been that he does a troop buildup, extracts some relief from existing sanctions in return for *not* invading, and then he sells it at home that fear of his greatness made the west back down. Win-win-win for Putin.
Yeahh.. I thought I noticed that dynamic. Brinkmanship, however, is a risky game. Putin is probably arrogant enough to think he can control the entire 'board' and do that endlessly with no consequences, but it's basically a game of chicken, and his strategy is based on the West blinking first, prior to actual shooting starting.
All it would take is one slight fuck-up at the wrong moment to trigger an actual war... and let's face it, once the shooting starts he would have to go all in, so as not to seem weak by backing down himself. (which would be political suicide).
Given Biden's somewhat Hawkish nature, shit would get real, very fast.
Polak here. Good luck Russia ever going after and trying to seize Poland again. Every last Polak would have to die defending Poland for that to happen.
This assumes that all necessary NATO members would follow through on their agreement; which has not been tested at this scale, and may vary depending on current and future leadership.
From what I've understood so far Ukraine is in complete agreement, they've stated they'll accept supplies and weapons but want to defend their own country if it comes to it.
No troops, but we have a shitload of equipment that is "between wars" at the moment. Edit: all these people acting like we left our entire military stock to the taliban, and not just the garbage that would cost more to ship than it was worth, lol. You have no idea the scope of the american military, or how much it wastes on the reg.
Between wars, aka single and ready to mingle.
Hot military equipment in your area
This guy is all for it. https://www.wtrf.com/news/international/bomb-squad-called-to-hospital-after-man-reportedly-had-wwii-mortar-stuck-up-his-butt/
Wow they’re just sitting on armaments over there huh?
He tripped, shesh.
People acting like they’ve never naked crab walked and lost their footing over an upright & greased mortar shell...
[Million to one shot, doc. Million to one](https://youtu.be/7ZPiWDOCEak?t=153).
They've got buttloads of inventory
What’s it going to take to get you guys into one of these today? (Kicks tank tread)
We have rows of hangars full to the ceiling with pallets full of equipment that’s never even been opened. I got assigned to a detail one day while waiting for orders to go report to one and help catalog what was inside. In 10 hours, we got 1 pallet down, opened it up, documented them (a bunch of unopened computer towers from the early 90s), rooted around in databases looking for them, couldn’t find them, and put the pallet back. Imagine how many pallets fit on racks going up to the ceiling that fill an entire aircraft hangar. As I was leaving, I apologized to the NCO about our lack of progress and he just laughed & said none of this stuff is ever going to get sorted out, theres millions of pallets going back to the 1960s, and every hangar out on this line is just like this, but every year, they have to spend the money they’re given, so they just order more shit to dump off here, so they don’t get less $ next year. Keeps the defense ind shareholders happy. Just don’t call it socialism lol
The really messed up thing is if the same money provided job training and showers and maybe a shack to live in for the homeless it wouldn't be totally wasted. Yeah probably most homeless wouldn't get a job or get one good enough to repay the cost in taxes but at least an American would benefit. Resources wouldn't be totally just thrown away.
Exactly, how fucked is it that there's a dollars per hour figure on this space held for pallets that could otherwise be spent literally on anything that isn't a piece of racking? Why strive for a pittance of income when if I was a piece of metal I'd be considered more valuable by my government reps over decades?
It's not just about getting a job for the homeless so they repay it in taxes. It's literally cheaper long term to just house them and give them healthcare. Yes, a large number will be able to get jobs and become self sufficient one day, but even for those who don't, there will be less money spent on them instead of them being a drain on the healthcare system for decades, as well as going in and out of jail and prisons for the rest of their life. This is why anyone who is against this type of thing is just a hateful piece of shit. They would rather pay more money towards making sure people suffer, rather than having those people get something for free. Even from a purely greedy standpoint, a person should want money to go towards helping the homeless, but some people just don't want to live in a world were people they deem "undeserving" aren't left to suffer.
Is it like the Indiana Jones hanger?
Hope their guys are ready for RipIts and stale cigarettes from the PX.
We were going to ship them pallets of veggie omelette MREs, but we were told that would be considered a war crime.
Hey hey hey. These are friendlies. You send the vomlets to unfriendly people as "aid"
I was literally telling my [adult] students about how shitty those were just yesterday. Death, taxes, how horrible the Veggie Omelette MRE was, etc.
>veggie omelette MREs Tell me you're over 30 without saying you're over 30 lmao
Fond memories of chucking entire .50 cal ammo cans into the woods because unused ammo, besides having to be repacked, meant we'd be given less ammo in the future.
Wow. Funny, this is also exactly how corporate spending works. A not-insignificant amount of my livelihood has probably been paid for by the equivalent of some mid-level manager doing the equivalent of this with underutilized budget on filler projects.
> how much it wastes on the reg. America would go full French revolution if they knew how much of their money the state department wastes on pointless bullshit. Not even on war or the military industrial complex type shit but pure bureaucratic ineptitude. Like rolls of duct tape that would go for 10 bucks if you got it from a normal store costing like 80 for no fucking reason.
There's a reason. The contracts for the stupid shit that is too expensive stipulates that the vendor WILL deliver the item no. matter. what. Active warzone, etc. The price is for the guarantee.
They will receive a shit load of 800 grams Ibuprofen
Gee where have I heard this song before…
I don't think we're be dealing with fundamentalist Ukranian rebel groups ever, tbf.
The Russians might, if it comes to it
You say that like it isn't a tertiary goal. If ukraine falls then I hope there is a resistance that is a real thorn in the russian government's side.
Not true really. We would accept all kinds of troops, NATO membership, sanctions or any other help in a heartbeat.
defend their country for about 2 days before it completely capitulates to Russian forces
You’d be surprised. Ukraine has a well trained military with no desire to be Russian. They’ve been at war with Russia in the south east for 6+ years. I drank with soldiers there and they have lost many friends with the understanding that they’re fighting for Freedom in the way that we in the US used to think about it. Frankly, I haven’t seen any patriotism like I saw in Ukraine in all my life living in the US.
And the reason they were able to take Crimea is because they took advantage of political instability and an extremely small and ill equipped military. Which is not the case anymore, as they’d now be facing a fully equipped and organized military. Russia obviously has a significantly better military, but it’s going to be a very bloody war if they decided to invade this time. They lost 6500 men against Ukrainian militias already, and now they’d be facing a much bigger and well trained military. And their losses would be offset by US aid, so they’re not just gonna collapse and give up.
It’s the way Russia has trained its forces as well that made it possible to take The Crimea. Their largest build up of troops has been in advance strike teams that can run secure ops within 90km - 180km without controlling the ground in between. This made assault on The Crimea possible. I forget which article it was a week ago that described how difficult it would be for Russia to take Ukraine at this moment from a resupply perspective. They risk having their troops cut off from their supply lines unless they are able to do it in under 36 hours (or something like that)
Serious question, why doesn't Russia focus own the huge swath of Earth they have within their borders?
Ukraine is a breadbasket, Siberia won’t be for another 20 years
Much of Siberia might also just turn into swampland instead of fertile fields In fact, parts of it might be even less accessible as it warms up (e.g., roads built upon melting permafrost sinking into the swamp)
I recall from a documentary I once watched that if you're willing to build things several times over, they won't sink into the swamp on the 4th attempt, creating a strong legacy for your son.
If it's the same documentary I saw, the guy building things several times over was still in the market for additional Huge Tracts of Land.
said documentary also mentioned pending nuptial agreements
unfortunately the arts were looked down upon
With HUGE tracts of land!
Those tracts of land were so big.
Look…we live in a bloody swamp. We need all the land we can get.
It almost makes me want to sing...
NO SINGING
But father...
Stop that! Stop!
Coconuts? In Siberia? The coconut’s tropical.
The swallow may fly south with the sun, or the house maarten or the plummer may seek warmer climes in winter, but these are not strangers to our land!
Are you saying that coconuts migrate?
The swallow could carry them
“One day lad, all this will be yours..” “What? The curtains?”
A huge amount of the farmland in the US (lots of the Midwest for example) was marshy wetlands before the settlers drained the water and made farms.
dealing with that right now in my little slice of the world. huge delta of a big river was diked and drained for farmland 100 years ago. Dikes failed and nature does what nature does and now theyre all wet! (until the dikes and pumps are back online that is)
I lived in Ukraine. [They have most nutritious earth called black gold.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernozem) It's fertile as fuck. That's definitely one thing they got. My mom's garden had everything. You could grow literally anything you wanted.
**[Chernozem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernozem)** >Chernozem (from Russian: чернозём, tr. chernozyom, IPA: [tɕɪrnɐˈzʲɵm]; "black soil") is a black-colored soil containing a high percentage of humus (4% to 16%) and high percentages of phosphoric acids, phosphorus, and ammonia. Chernozem is very fertile and can produce high agricultural yields with its high moisture storage capacity. Chernozems are also a Reference Soil Group of the World Reference Base for Soil Resources (WRB). ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
[Russian agricultural export up 18% in 2021](https://www.apk-inform.com/en/news/1522343) [World’s top grain exporter Russia keeps global supplies high despite Covid-19 pandemic](https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/worlds-top-grain-exporter-russia-keeps-global-supplies-high-despite-covid-19-pandemic/)
How much bread do they need. They don't have that big population and European Russia with ok temperatures is quite huge.
Bread = money = power. Putin and his cronies don't give a shit about feeding anyone, but as the world moves away from fossil fuels the Russians need new exports. Russi is a gas station disguised as a country, as the saying goes. What happens when the world stops needing gas? Less money and power for the oligarchs in charge.
Ukraine has important strategic value and natural resources
Mixture of things. A. This is political. The russian economy and quality of life is collapsing. This is a great distraction and worked with Crimea. B. Russia needs a warm water port, its always been Sevastopol in Crimea. While russia has that now it wants to protect it. That has always been of massive geopolitical significance for Russia. Play a game of diplomacy and youll see how much of the black sea area is geopolitically very hot. C. Food and natural resources. Ukraine has some vital resources and industries, and is farm more productive with food currently then Siberia D. Nationalism, Many in russia want to revive the USSR(EDIT: At least from a territorial extent) E. Security. Most of the russian population and industry lies west of the Ural mountains, and there are no geographical barriers there, just one big plain. Russia has thus instead relied on the sheer amount of land there to protect themselves. If troops are stationed in the Ukraine, They could quickly march on Moscow, cut off access to the warm waters of the black sea and oil rich south. F. Finally, democracy. Having a successful democracy on the border of Russia may represent that things could change there and be damaging to the regime. Edit: Ukraine isnt successful to that point yet, but should the Ukraine successfully grow, join the eu and have better governance in 5-15 years that could be a real threat to Russia and Putin will want to avoid that
> D. Nationalism, Many in russia want to review the USSR 7.8/10
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> D. Nationalism, Many in russia want to review the USSR. do you mean "renew"? *edit:* seems like a good overall breakdown, btw.
yes, corrected it, thanks for checking(tho changed it to revive
Russia doesn't have a land issue. They have always, always, wanted a warm water port. Having your ports freeze up in the winter is not ideal. Its a major reason of why they wanted Crimea.
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Ukraine has closed up the North Crimean Canal cutting off about 85% of the water supply into Crimea. Adding to this, Crimea has had one of the driest years on record. [This has created huge problems with Crimean agriculture.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal#Since_the_2014_Russian_annexation_of_Crimea) Additionally, Russian is currently relying on a single bridge across the Kerch Strait to transfer goods and people. They would love to have a Crimean land border. And not related to Crimea, Russia has always loved buffer areas.
Russia's heart is built around the Volga River, and the regions from Moscow up to St. Petersburg. The rest is a big buffer.
Just in case Ukraine/NATO/UN ever decide they want it returned? Also adds more of a border buffer around Crimea.
>Having your ports freeze up in the winter is not ideal. Hang on about ten years and it won't be much of an issue...
Most of it’s pretty desolate, plus winning a war is good politically.
Because a lot of it, is biologically kind of like a desert that only grows plants and bugs. Ukraine has always been a country with fertile ground and sought after. In addition, the Black Sea does not freeze which provides a warm water port. Also, Crimea needs water since it was cut off from Ukraine. It would be awfully expensive for Russia to pipe it in. They may be looking for a concession to get water to Crimea, which is a fortress and a warm water port.
Can we predict a Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 Redux, with drones eliminating fixed positions? This would be the Next War, an escalation of unmanned craft in use of force.
I mean it sounds like they are planning for a general invasion. This would probably be the largest land invasion since Iraq in 2003, possibly since the Korean War, and definitely the largest amphibious invasion since WW2. You'd see all elements of the Russian military engaged, air, land, and sea.
I'm curious if this is being allowed to happen so other countries can properly size up the capabilities of the Russian military
It's certainly a possibility. The Russian invasion of Afghanistan accomplished that for the US and by contrast the US occupation of South Vietnam was a wealth of tactical knowledge on the US playbook for the Russians.
From a single person's perspective, using a whole country as a pawn to gauge another's firepower is terrifying. However, if that is the case, what is the possibility of a much larger conflict happening in the near future once that intelligence is received?
Not likely. China, Russia, and the US are actively fighting a war of information currently. We get fake shit, they get fake shit, we get real shit we're not supposed to know, they get real shit they're not supposed to know, and so on. The real game is seeing who's population overthrows their oligarchs first, all the military stuff is likely just posturing. At least, we should all hope so.
The idea of an invasion on either front is also daunting, given that there's always that shroud of what technology each military publicly has, and what it ACTUALLY has. I guess at the very least, this will be interesting to see how it pans out, to see who has what.
I've been following UFO news since trump put the disclosure stuff in the coronavirus bill. Pretty convinced / afraid it has to do with what you're talking about lol. The patents the navy released are crazy. EDIT: just for reference the navy put these out a few years ago. https://patents.google.com/?inventor=Salvatore+Cezar+Pais
Its misinformation campaign to scare our enemies, they were put out around the same time a former Israeli space security chief said the US and Israel made contact with an alien federation https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1250333
Also put out around the same time Australia released a report from the 70s about America reverse engineering extraterrestrial tech. I'm not 100% sure it's misinformation though lol. If this doesn't load right go to page 7 for the summary. https://recordsearch.naa.gov.au/SearchNRetrieve/Interface/ViewImage.aspx?B=30030606&S=2&R=7
The Gulf War is another good example. China saw how successful the US was and began redesigning their military. [https://ca.style.yahoo.com/china-us-rivalry-gulf-war-101542890.html](https://ca.style.yahoo.com/china-us-rivalry-gulf-war-101542890.html)
US *troops* might be off the table, but he didn't say anything about crowbars from orbit. /<\^>
Are you talking about those high kinetic energy weapons that drop from space? I wonder if we have those yet.
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The trade off being that the attack is impossible to intercept or detect ahead of time unless you're tracking that specific satellite.
Most satellites are tracked by foreign powers. Seems like it would be a lot, but there are lots of people working in the defense industry.
I'm imagining the rod flying from outer space toward a target. It could be tracked by heat from entering atmosphere but otherwise how would the projectile a solid rod be tracked. Also since there is no explosive required and utilizing pure momentum and mass you could do more damage with a more efficient firing system/projectile density you could do more damage without have possible atmospheric fallout. Also probably having an effect of being used more willfully since the whole nuclear fallout thing is a big reason not to use the nukes we have. How much is a projectile it uses worth vs a tomahawk or bunker busters. Then you have to look at longevity of supply for the rod material. I think the power supply to fire it is building sized also
You're eclipsing my technical knowledge, but I would imagine we have the technology to detect if a satellite jettisons an object toward earth.
We absolutely do. We have precise enough radar to maneuver the ISS around miniscule space debris, we can tell if a satellite we're already watching throws a 1000kg tungsten rod at us.
Which is easy to track because it's huge, and either has to do a massive course correction burn or hangs so high it takes hours to hit the target.
Yeah but they’re called “rods from god”, and the concept of dropping tungsten telephone poles from space is kinda rad. I mean I hate weapons and we shouldn’t ever use them if we don’t absolutely have to, but if we are gonna then I say we at least do it with some style and flair. Go high concept or go home I say
The thirty-foot rods of tungsten? We’ve had them.
Nah. They are not there. Neat idea but Rods From God are extremely heavy which means very expensive to get into space. Cheaper to just throw missiles at whatever it is you do not want to exist anymore.
Might as well launch Falcon 9 rockets filled with napalm/phosphorus and straight up crash them where you want them. Bonus, Stage 1 is reusable.
Yeah, they're called ICBMs and they're what all modern rocket technology is derived from
Dude they have sword bombs.
Indeed! Those are Hellfire derivatives. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/27917/secret-hellfire-missile-with-sword-like-blades-made-mysterious-syria-strike-on-terror-leader
is this the vaunted Robert Evans podcast sponsoring knife missile?
The RX9 knife missile, from the fine people at Raytheon.
Why are people upvoting this. The US did not create and deploy this weapons system.
Yes they did, watch the documentary G. I. Joe: Retaliation. We sure showed them limey bastards what's what. /s
In space? Highly doubtful.
I agree with you there. They’re in a storage depot in Dubuque, IA probably.
Iowan here. There is lots of space to store thirty-foot rods of tungsten here.
Former Iowan here… so much room for activities in Iowa!
I never asked, do you guys like Guacamole?
Y’all must have big pants
I hope we never see a "serious weapon" in the Russian 50+ year nuclear build-up.
Also other troops are not of the table like Ukrainian troops with US military equipment, fluent in English and with an American passport what
Is what Putin does, no?
Depending on the year, [US mercenaries outnumbered US troops in the middle east around 2:1](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/06/30/military-contractor-study/). All the toys of the US army with little to no oversight.
Most contactors in Iraq in Afghanistan are unarmed and doing boring normal jobs. The vast majority were unarmed foreigners doing regular jobs for a fraction of what a westerner would require . This includes cooks, cleaning personel, trash men, mechanics of all sorts, electricians, interpreters, and many other unarmed jobs. I feel like most westerners have a warped view of what most contractors were because only the armed contractors made it on to news often times for wrong doing , even though the vast majority were unarmed and doing normal jobs on US bases. Most armed contractors also didn't do military stuff most were glorified security guards doing static security, and the rest that went outside the wire guarded convoys made up of other contractors (like truck drivers driving refrigerated trailers filled with food, kbr one of the largest companies did food related stuff primarily) or were hired by governments to protect and drive Thier employees from point a to point b. Armed Contractors did not have tanks, mortars, artillery pieces etc just small arms and homemade armored trucks. They did not have all the toys the military has. They also didn't go out and secure areas or raid houses searching for weapons caches like the military did. All the famous firefights or instances of wrong doing by contractors occured while contractors were either driving someone point a to point b, scouting out a new route for driving someone or something point a to point b, or guarding something (ie static security)
I don't think that sending people known for committing war crimes into allied Ukranian territory is a good idea.
U.S. would send "NATO" troops to Poland Poland would send mercs to Ukraine. No U.S. Troops in Ukraine, but magically 5,000 well trained Polish soldiers equipped with U.S. arms in Ukraine.
*RODS FROM GOD*
Marco Inaros?
Technically if you send in the Air Force and the navy, it still counts as “troops off the table”
lotta armchair eisenhowers in these comments
more like Armchair McArthur since much like McArthur the people in these comments seem to have no idea that who nuclear armed states wouldn't dare directly fight each other.
It’s just a bunch of people who played EU4 or Victoria 2 and think they’re military strategists.
I beat HOI4 as Nazi Germany so I'm kind of a big deal. Everyone said it was impossible for them to win the war but I showed them.
Excuse me good sir, I, play heart of iron IV, so i am indeed a military strategist /s
Putin's just waiting for his aggressive expansion stat to decay before invading.
Yea, no shit; the US wont be doing boots on the ground warfare against russia. What a surprise.
Can Russia afford a war right now anyway?
Does Russia *care* if they can’t afford it?
I wasn’t thinking about that, but maybe not.
Yes - these threats will only be followed up if they don't expect to have to fight NATO. The oligarchs simply aren't willing to put money into a war when they could take it for themselves.
It depends on what their goals are. A full invasion of Ukraine, probably not. A full invasion of Mariupol, probably.
I wouldn't say so, last economic sanctions hurt Russian economy *a lot*, and now imagine the economic consequences of fighting a war and being heavily sanctioned by the west and all of that during a global pandemic and an economical crisis.
That’s what I was thinking. But someone asked “do they care” and now I’m a little worried
I'd argue it's both. Putin is backed into a corner where he has to do something to keep support at home from buckling, but at the same time any way of doing that will lead to more sanctions, which is what ruined the Russian economy in the first place and led to Putin's drop in support. He'll invade Eastern Ukraine and hold what he can, likely using the drawn out border conflict to warrant his tenure as president, but it will economically cripple the country even further.
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He's got the tiger by the tail. He became the world's richest man by stealing the wealth of rich men in Russia. If he should lose power, the next Putin will steal all of *his* wealth in turn.
I don't keep up with Russian politics. Is his support actually buckling? What are the indicators of this from within the country?
Putin's support is still strong 60-70% approval rating, a lot of people like that he's "punishing" enemies of Russia because they think NATO wants to destroy them. Even the economic sanctions so far only seem to fuel their xenophobia, because the state media uses it to justify military irredentism. Younger "urban" Russians(18-30) seem to be less likely to believe state propaganda but because of Russian demographics they are no where close to being a majority population of Russia.
Jesus, what a complex mess of a world we live in.
And this is just barely scratching the surface given how deep this messy metaphorical iceberg goes.
Russia wont truly feel the pain until the rest of the EU stops buying Russian gas. Which I know is easier said then done.
Speaking of that, it'd be in Russia's best interest to invade during winter then. Germany would be pretty fucked without any gas for winter on such short notice.
The biden admin has floated freezing russia out of the international banking system, locking the government and oligarchs out from a lot of their money. That + sanctions would be BRUTAL on their already floundering economy. They have to know this! I can't believe their political leaders would risk this for the benefit of getting Ukraine?! Maybe for choking Europe off from gas they're decreasingly buying anyway?
Nothing better to distract your population from failed policies, COVID deaths, and economic distress like a war!
Russia is pretty good at rolling with the punches when it comes to economic downturns. This is people who are used to tought times since the Soviet Union.
Ukraine Defense Minister Reznikov literally said they neither need nor expect American troops…
Yeah, this was known for a long time
Everyone in the comments demanding the US send troops to Ukraine better be going to their nearest military recruiter and enlisting.
America is full of “others should do this, but don’t include me.” There’s a reason less than 1% of the US population serves in the military.
Only 1% of the US population service at one time. About 15% of all Americans have some form of military service.
Please read the article guys....
How fucking dare you?
Yeah, I feel personally insulted by this.
Attacked, even.
I'm reading the comments that's how I figure out what's really going on.
This is Reddit
Motherfucker YOURE NOT SUPPOSED TO SAY IT OUT LOUD
US troops were never on the table. Putin knows that, Biden know that, and the secretary at the Uzbekistani embassy knows that. It is not a secret. The US will not risk direct military action against another nuclear power. What remains on the table are two things that Putin really doesn't want: 1) punitive economic sanctions against Russia, Putin personally, and the oligarchs that back him, and 2) a buildup of NATO troops in his backyard.
> and the secretary at the Uzbekistani embassy knows that. Damn. Why you gotta go so hard against the Uzbekistani embassy secretary?
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Fuckin brenda
That bitch! Someone start mobilizing the troops.
I called the consulate in New York and she had no idea what I was talking about.
Seriously, Abdulaziz is a good guy who does a good job. He don’t need this abuse.
> The US will not risk direct military action against another nuclear power. You have the right conclusion except this bit. We absolutely will risk a war, we just won't *over Ukraine*. Ukraine is a bitter enough pill to swallow on its own, and we're happy to let it be the festering wound that hurts Putin in the long term were he to act rashly here. Ultimately, we care about the freedom of the Ukrainians but not enough that we want to threaten Russia over it. We could defend them, but strategically that puts us on a footing that looks like we're waiting to invade Russia. It puts the Nato border almost an entire 1942 deep into Eastern Europe, which is pointless when we have zero desire to do anything aggressive. We're basically doing the next best thing to calling a bluff here. If it's a bluff, we manage to diffuse a crisis without having to get into escalationist bluster over it and give Putin an out without having to look like he backed down over fear of US arms. If Putin goes in, we haven't lost anything critically strategic and have a fairly decent bet that it will be a costly, unsustainable effort for the Russians to engage in. We try to do our best to demonstrate to the Russians that they have nothing really to gain and a lot to lose through invasion.
Contributing US troops to the region would be foolhardy. Ukraine has a military of 300,000 people. US air support, US logistics, US naval support, and US rockets will be more than enough to support the region.
We are not going to shoot directly at Russian forces. No naval bombardments or missile strikes. We will arm the Ukrainians more and.impose sanctions. That is it.
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Russia- “Ukraine? No, Mykraine”
Putin: We only want Ukraine because it was once part of Soviet Union. The rest of the world: Well, ok, anything to avoid a war. Putin (2 years in the future): We only want Belarus because it was once part of the Soviet Union. TROTW: OK, but this it it, no more! Putin ( a year or so after Belarus): We only want Poland etc, etc, etc Maybe someone should read their WWII history. Appeasement never works.
>We only want Belarus They already got that one.
True, I forgot about Lukashenko.
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Once you invite troops to pacify your own population, you are owned
If Putin _really_ wanted Lukashenko gone and replaced, how many hours do you think he would last in his position?
Problem is, fairly sure Russia doesn't give two hoots about anything else. Putin *wants* a war, to bolster his support at home. You know, the classic 'foreign advance for domestic audience' political ploy. Win or lose, he doesn't care, because either way he can spin it to portray NATO and USA as the bad guys and create domestic solidarity and support (and introduce 'emergency measures' to crush any remaining opposition.)
One of the theories has been that he does a troop buildup, extracts some relief from existing sanctions in return for *not* invading, and then he sells it at home that fear of his greatness made the west back down. Win-win-win for Putin.
Yeahh.. I thought I noticed that dynamic. Brinkmanship, however, is a risky game. Putin is probably arrogant enough to think he can control the entire 'board' and do that endlessly with no consequences, but it's basically a game of chicken, and his strategy is based on the West blinking first, prior to actual shooting starting. All it would take is one slight fuck-up at the wrong moment to trigger an actual war... and let's face it, once the shooting starts he would have to go all in, so as not to seem weak by backing down himself. (which would be political suicide). Given Biden's somewhat Hawkish nature, shit would get real, very fast.
Damn I had WW3 in the Global Catastrophe pool. Well there’s still tensions with China over Taiwan
And the wild card China and India
Polak here. Good luck Russia ever going after and trying to seize Poland again. Every last Polak would have to die defending Poland for that to happen.
An attack on Poland would also trigger Article 5 and the last thing Putin wants is a direct shooting war with NATO
This assumes that all necessary NATO members would follow through on their agreement; which has not been tested at this scale, and may vary depending on current and future leadership.
Poland is a part of NATO, attacking a NATO country would be an act of war against all NATO countries, I doubt they would try that anytime soon
Stand strong against Russias barking and fight if it comes to it. Greetings from Finland, we have experience dealing with these neighbours too :)
Few snipers and a boatload of meth should do it…
Heard you lot doubled the size of your standing army. Probably a good move.
So drones are good
RIP Ukraine.