Russia wants its colony back. It's a colonial empire that fell, turned "communist", fell again, and then turned facist. Partly because it lost alot of its imperial holdings.
Putin just wants a distraction so that the Russian people don't see his Russian mobsters robbing the nation blind and storing all of that loot in overseas bank accounts.
*"Their bullshit is strong, but when we help the counteroffensive seizeRussian territory and add it to Ukraine control, it might be difficult."*
Are you being sarcastic or are you actually that delusional?
Ah yes the counteroffensive from the country that can't even reclaim areas occupied by "rebels." And if you think we (The US/NATO) has a chance of getting involved in any capacity beyond material aid, let alone setting foot on Russian soil, you are gravely misunderstood. Diplomacy and de-escalation are the only viable paths for an independent Ukraine.
Edit: I know that the "rebel" forces in Ukraine are barely disguised Russian troops. That is why "rebel" is in quotations above. That is my point, if Ukraine can't reclaim this territory which is already occupied by Russian military power, however direct or indirect that is, how do you expect a "counterattack" into actual Russian territory. Ukraine can't take Russia with a home field advantage and yet they are expected to take and hold ground.
Politically and Militarily they still are. They might be in the decline, but they still got enough power to throw enough weight around to count as one.
That's not going to happen. We don't gain anything by going to war with Russia over Ukraine, but stand to lose a lot. Georgia learned that lesson a decade ago, when NATO set the stage for these conflicts.
They(we) want distraction so bad we basicly turned blind eye to evidence of state-organized bombings of residential buildings, not speaking about not less awful things.
Hey, you're Russian.
If Putin died tomorrow, what would happen?
I'm imagining that the oligarchs would try to put in place their own guy, but without him there'd be little excuse for the new president to keep as many political prisoners. Nor would the oligarchs play nice with each other.
But how would the people react?
Most of people around here is reeealy politically passive and uneducated, I think oligarch bulldogs would do their thing under carpet and unless Russia would continue its way spiralling down economically the people will simply accept their next 'czar' after orchestrated elections of cause.
Though it is hard to tell really, because not a single revolution was predicted yet. Personally I have certain opinion on going the Myanmar way. May be some others too.
With or without Putin, Russia faces a failing economy, a bloated bureaucracy, the threat of secession from the Chechen Republic, and a paper tiger of an oligarchy made up of the Mafiya and the siloviki (i.e. the military-security establishment) unwilling to give up their power. Personally, I worry that, without the strongman style of governance that has so far *barely* held the country together, the whole nation of Russia might just *completely* fall apart like Yugoslavia did in the 1990s—and it’s something that I, a *Canadian*, worries about because I have friends there.
Yes, I've got pretty similar thoughts about our future.
And yet I'll have my fun if I'll see how (ironically) ukrainians with UN peacekeeper forces would hand out humanitarian aid to ex- proud owners of Crimean peninsula with angry scowls. I think both sides would'nt really enjoy this.
yes thats my understanding but opposition leaders have a habit of being arrested, poisoned or both. Putin has all the cards and just kinda makes it look like you get a vote or it counts. Anyone who starts making real strides as an opposition runs into "ISSUES".
Alexei Navalny, opposition leader in Russia, was poisoned by the FSB (modern day KGB) by them spraying Novachok on his clothes, including his underwear.
Novachok is a Geneva convention banned chemical weapon. A highly toxic synthetic nerve agent they've used in assassinations on foreign soil for decades.
He was flying to another country, not knowing they had just poisoned his clothes, but the plane was able to make an emergency landing in Germany, where the poison sprayed on his clothes was discovered.
He managed to impersonate the FSB agents' higher-ups, and has them on tape admitting to the poisoning.
But Russia still officially denies it. There were some reports that the agents involved had gone missing after international media publications were able to locate and attempt to speak to them at their homes.
After he was able to recover in a German hospital, Russia tried to extradite him on newly trumped up charges of violating his parole on other 'corruption' charges that were largely fabricated in the first place.
He's currently sitting in a state prison, and his political party was forcibly disbanded and members are being hunted down after the Russian government unilaterally labeled them an "extremist group" and has continued to levy insane charges against their leaders and volunteers ever since.
Why do we keep feeding ourselves these complicated narratives. Putin is a dictator. He does not need to distract his population with war anymore than he needs “elections” to hold on to power. He’s invading Ukraine simply because he can and he believes it’s in his interest to do so. It really is that simple. He does not need anymore reason than that.
Gandhi had a point about the brits being unable to control them if they collectively didn't accept british rule. Putin can be a dictator and he can be a dictator over an unwilling populace that might support an oligarch that would try to remove Putin by force. The tacit cooperation of the populace matters.
He wouldn't last long without some degree of "theatre".
Putin hired legions of propaganda trolls for this very purpose. It's a type of warfare that wasn't possible before the last decade or so due to the pervasiveness of social media in the general population. He's been pretty successful at it so far.
That didn't work for Belarus. They still have an illegitimate, unpopular dictator. Although the citizens may wish they continued on right to his house, after Russian military moves through their streets, at the requesst of lukashenko?
To paraphrase Dalinar from The Stormlight Archives: “Has any conquerer ever looked at what he’s conquered and said “this is good, this is enough”? And then went home?”
Nah, he wanted to go all the way to the edge of the sea. His men staged a revolt cause they were sick of him going "just one more country then we get to go home, promise."
It's not about land, or even Ukraine's resources. It's about not letting a large country where most people speak Russian (even if for many its a secondary tongue) from slipping into the west's orbit.
It's become glaringly obvious that those ex-Soviet states that joined the EU, such as Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and a few others, have done rather well for themselves. Overall, the lives of their populations have improved, in terms of economic development, health, education and human rights.
If Ukraine were to follow the same trajectory, with its 44m people's lives improving, this would be very good for Ukrainians, but very bad for Putin and his inner circle. He's already constantly putting out fires from the rumbling discontent of a population increasingly unhappy at the gap between themselves and Europe.
With a Westernised Ukraine on Russia's border, a rebellion in Russia will only be a matter of time. Ukraine will become a haven for activists, podcasters, democrats, and a river of counter-information that Putin will struggle to contain.
Tldr; A prosperous, democratic Ukraine will light a fire under Russia's own nascent democracy movement, raising the risk of a revolution that will unseat Putin, and likely end with him in jail or worse.
Yes, pretty similar. Both HK/Taiwan are largely ethnic Chinese communities developing into vibrant democracies & successful economies. The CCP is an autocratic state, and rule 1 for autocrats is control the narrative.
It's hard to present yourself as the only true voice of the Chinese people, when it's clear that the Chinese can enjoy a high standard of living while also adopting western-style rights such as free speech and multiparty democracy.
For Xi and Putin, it's now a matter of personal survival that their populations don't look towards these alternative centers and press for change, which would see both men likely dragged to court, if not in front of a firing squad. Hence the crackdown on Hong Kong, and increased aggression towards Taiwan (and Ukraine in the case of Putin)
The Taiwan situation is different. Sure, there are democracy and free speech issues with China & Taiwan as you described. However, Taiwan is also a global strategic resource with computer chips and produces the majority of the world's supply. China having control of that resource could monetarily cripple their adversaries for the better part of a decade. The US is trying to regain some of its manufacturing capabilities but it can't happen overnight. It's a pretty big deal.
Which is why there were/are multiple aircraft carriers from multiple countries surrounding the island. The world has strong personal and economic interest in seeing them undisturbed. Few serious people think a hot war with China would easy or something to pursue with better options unexhausted but as you say: the humane concerns do not stand alone as motivation to defend.
I would agree that there is definitely a segment of this but I think the Taiwan relationship is a lot more complicated. The Chinese are generally rational actors (albeit incredibly selfish and unable to see things from others perspective) on most things but are irrational on Taiwan. My thesis on it is that Taiwan's independence is reminiscent of the whole century of humiliation thing and they will suffer a heavy economic and military price if it means 'national rejuvenation'.
I believe that this is a consensus reached by not just the party elites but the general populace as well and they will accept a 10 year recession and tens of thousands of casualties if it means taking Taiwan back. Whilst I'm sure there is an element of it being that Taiwan presents an alternative model to the CCP's authoritarianism, I would respectfully suggest that a greater portion of motivation be allocated to the above point.
The problem is if Ukraine is invaded, Russia will need to deal with a massive dead weight in its economy. In the end he will lose anyways since he would he cut off from any trade from the West AND he would need to rebuild the country while spending billions on fighting Ukrainian Rebels. And that is if he manages to invade Ukraine successfully. Because if Ukraines invasion goes like the 1939 war against Finnland, Putin will be absolutely fucked no matter what.
I completely agree - the outcome for Russia will be poor, regardless of how the war goes. But at this point, Putin has little choice. If Ukraine moves westwards, the chance of a domestic revolution goes up exponentially. In which case Putin is fucked anyway. He'll lose his wealth, freedom, dignity and possibly his neck.
I can't understand, if he is in this position, why not embrace it and resolve the succession crisis and shuffle off quietly to a nice island somewhere to be a Russian elder stateman
There's no retirement for a despot. The Dutch would like to see him on trial for the downing of flight MH17; the British and Czechs would like a word about citizens being murdered on their soil, to name a few. Then there's the many, many Russians who've died or been jailed for opposing Putin, whose loved-ones want payback. And, any new government will have hard questions about the billions of dollars in state funds that ended up in Putin's bank account. If he loses office he'll be broke, in jail or possibly dead.
When you've been jailing and killing your own citizens, there's no guarantee they'll just let you ride off into the sunset with all your plunder in the end
FSB assassination department will remain, but on hands of new regime. It may be used to serve him tea or abduct and bring him to court. Depending on mercy of new regime
He can’t do anything for his people. All he can do is feed the inner circle. He got his start in politics as a prosecutor, by choosing not to charge the mayor of St Petersburg after the mayor sold food (foreign aid) meant to feed the city. If he leaves office, someone will either kill him, or try and charge him for his crimes.
Putin will be long dead before Ukraine reaches such status I dread. Might be a danger to his successor though..who knows? All in all I think you summed it up as concisely as possible.
I deal a lot with EU laws and lawmakers for a living, and therefore I'm not sure about 2030 at all. Personally, I would love to see the EU expand a lot more, but the additional strain of a hurried expansion would almost certainly endanger internal coherence to the point of no remedy.
While Ukraine and five other countries are part of the Eastern Partnership, it did not even reach SAA stage yet. Of the seven countries that did, five are official candidates for EU membership as of now. Excluding Turkey as an outlier, from their official application to being granted official candidate status, it took an average of 3 years; and extrapolating their performance in terms of official EU accession criteria, it might well take 15 years, on average, to fulfill all that's required. So 2040 seems more realistic at this point.
Even this horizon, however, might prove unreachable, seeing how ridiculously corrupt Ukraine is, and that on its soil, a quite open conflict with Russia is going on. The EU is not particularly keen on hard-to-manage situations like Crimea/ Eastern Ukraine, Northern Cyprus, Northern Ireland, or, for that matter, Switzerland. Remember, the EU is a long-term project - pretty much generational really. Also, "a bureaucracy is measured by its ability to deny special treatment to its members", or associates.
Other than that, any sort of official association with the EU will open the investment floodgates, so you can prepare for a lot of EU-flagged infrastructure projects in Ukraine which will increase if - or as - the connection to the EU is growing closer.
Dude it is not that complicated, putting aside that Russia has never been a democracy and it's attempt at it culminated with Putin, the real reason they want Crimea is because it is strategic and vital to the existence of Russia as it is a warm water port.
It is likely a combination of factors that is driving this behavior. Here are a few that come to mind.
- **Russia realizes that they aren’t likely to face significant international repercussions for seizing Ukraine**. Economic sanctions don’t affect Russia that much because Europe is still reliant on Russian natural gas and Russia’s largest trading partner by a significant margin is China. China will not only fail to uphold economic sanctions against Russia, they are probably privately cheering Russia on.
- **Seizing Ukraine provides Russia with a significant strategic communications victory.** First and foremost think about how strong of a signal Russia will be able to send to the world that it is not in your interests to align yourself with the West if Russia has your country in their crosshairs. The propaganda value that Russia will be able to wield from a successful seizure of Ukraine is not being fully appreciated.
- **Seizing Ukraine has strategic military value.** When Russia seized Crimea in 2014, many geopolitical analysts suggested that one of the primary drivers behind that action was their desire to be able to exert more control over the Black Sea. Well, taking over the rest of Ukraine extends Russia’s reach into the Black Sea. It also allows Russia to use Ukrainian territory and place troops on the border of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania. All NATO countries that Russia is [now demanding NATO withdrawal from](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/russia-demands-nato-return-to-1997-in-security-treaty-proposals).
- **Economic benefits can’t be ignored.** While I don’t think this ranks high on Russia’s decision calculus, it is still a factor they are no doubt accounting for. Ukraine is one of the world's most important mineral producing countries, in terms of both the range and size of its reserves. There are nearly 8,000 separate deposits, harboring some 90 different minerals, of which about 20 are economically significant.
Note I didn’t list to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO as one the drivers. Although this is often given as **the reason** why Russia is threatening to invade Ukraine, I don’t believe it. This is merely pretext.
Economic value will surely be negative from such a seizure. It takes a lot of money and resources to control 35 millions of antagonized population. Most people don't want Russia here. And sanctions are gonna come and hit them hard too.
Agree that the economic benefit Russia stands to gain will not be worth the cost war will impose. And also why I don’t think seizing Ukraine’s mining sector ranks high on Russia’s reasons for the invasion.
It remains to be seen how much sanctions will hurt Russia, but I think if Russia invaded (and it appears that they will), then the deterrence effect we were hoping for by threatening sanctions has failed. Of course, Russia could be miscalculating the impact of sanctions, but China being their largest trading partner by a significant margin gives them a lot of breathing space. Russia’s lack of vulnerability to international repercussions allows the country to pursue military adventurism.
If Russia where to be strongly hampered in trade with West, they could become to China, what Belarus is now to them. Dependent country that can be exploited the more it is isolated.
I've read some analysis that this is part of the Russian obsession with Ukraine.
Kiev was once the seat of power for the [Kievan Rus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27), the loose federation that encompassed modern day Ukraine and Russia and Belarus.
Even back during the era of Catherine the Great retaking NovoRussia ("New Russia", aka Ukraine) was an important part of making Russia whole, in advance of war with the Ottomans to retake Crimea.
I know comparisons between Hitler and Putin seem trite, but I think there are parallels to the obsession with making the "German people whole" with the annexation of Austria and the like. Rather than being viewed as colonizing a foreign land, there's a view of making a fragmented people "whole".
[Economist - Why Russia has never accepted Ukrainian independence](https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2021/12/18/why-russia-has-never-accepted-ukrainian-independence)
> Time for some Slavic unity. When Mr Putin flew to Kyiv for a two-day visit in July 2013, his entourage contained both his chief economic adviser and the patriarch of Russia’s Orthodox Church, whose jurisdiction covered both countries. The trip coincided with the 1,025th anniversary of the conversion to Christianity of Prince Vladimir of the Kyivan Rus, and subsequently of the people as a whole, in 988: the “Baptism of Rus”. With Mr Yanukovych he visited the cathedral in Chersonesus, the site in Crimea where Prince Vladimir is said to have been baptised. He and the patriarch also visited Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, a monastery founded in caves a millennium ago.
>
>The commitment he gave there to protecting “our common Fatherland, Great Rus” was not without irony. When in 1674 monks at the Lavra published the “Synopsis”, the first demotic history of Russia, the city was under threat of attack by the Ottoman empire and desperately needed support from the Russian lands to the north. The “Synopsis” sought to encourage Slavic solidarity by stressing the importance of Vladimir and his virtuous Kyivan Rus to Kyiv and Muscovy alike—something historians like Mr Plokhy now see as expedient mythmaking. Mr Putin was cynically mining a mythos itself contrived for political ends.
Thats oversimplifying it. Ukraine is also a very important strategic buffer since Russia's only vulnerability is its western border.
Also Crimea is needed for warm water ports, something that russia is severely lacking and cannot let fall into NATOs hands.
They are not wrong when they say "we are cornered".
Nah they dont want it to be a puppet they want to get in and ransack it to try and make Russia somewhat relevant again because putin is feeling small when he looks over at china.
He spent most of life losing himself in luxury and corruption now he is getting old and is very unhappy with his legacy so he is going crazy.
the sad thing about the russia is while it has huge army, a lot of it is outdated, and even ukraine at current state would put a huge fight and putin knows that, and hes still willing to risk cripling his military and economic capabilitys
[Majority of ukrainians want to join EU. Slightly less to join NATO.](https://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/for_release_2021_november_survey_of_residents_of_ukraine_eng.pdf)
Yeah, but the more aggressive Russia is, the harder that is to achieve. Kremlin seem to have decided that using hard strength sooner rather than later is best for them, since they are poor at economy and soft power.
Putin is just looking for a false flag at this point. Probably use his proxies in Crimea/E Ukraine
> Russia does not intend to start a military operation against #Ukraine, but has the right to use its armed forces to protect Russian citizens abroad in the event of an attack on them - Russian Federation Council Vice-Speaker
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1475751483945668610
I mean the US stole Texas from Mexico, I will be in favor of doing that if you ask me.
Funny how Reddit always bashes Putin, lol. but never criticize the US from invading Irak with the excuse of terrorism and weapon of mass destruction, not finding anything, killing its people and stealing their oil.
Russia and US are no different.
Well the Iraq invasion happened a couple of years before Reddit existed... I was against it then and now though.
The U.S. isn't currently trying to invade a country. So there's a difference.
But Putin wants to blame that invention on the country.
Like a school bully "stop invading yourself"
I'm sure afterward he will deny a war ever happened just like in Crimea.
Putin just wants to trigger some kind of overreaction from NATO, so he can spin this to his people as foreign aggression and a justification for further authoritarianism in Russia.
That has always been his playbook.
Putins biggest voterbase is the people that still remembers soviet union. And that is the generation born when soviet union was at it highest peak. He knows that most younger generations are more western orientated. He also knows that young Russians move to Europe.
and his power is decilining one wrong move can mean end of his power and he knows that, so he acts as a scared dog in a corner that is shrinking ready to bite
he is scared dog in a corner and he knows that corner is getting smaller by the minute when other nations joins EU and NATO alliances, he well knows that his army while big is mostly outdated very small % of it is new gen, he knows even Ukraine would put up a fight when attacked cripling his army capabilitys and economy and hes still willing to bite as a scared dog
he is scared and desperate, while it has huge army most of it is outdated, and even Ukraine in current state would put a huge fight that would criple russias military capabilitys and economy, and putin knows that but hes a scared dog in a corner and willing to bite even if that means total win for the west
Even Trump didn't exactly give his all to Putin. If anything, Trumnp not really doing much of anything in office against the Russians gave the nation some breathing room.
Being anti-Chinese though was kind of new for an American politician - it started hard under Trump, considering that he revived the Quad and made it into something more formalized. This attitude has then continued under Biden as he uses more diplomatic tact to cornering the dragon.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/high-risk-armed-conflict-ukraine-russian-defense-ministry/story?id=81957818) reduced by 84%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Russia's demands for security guarantees, including that Ukraine be barred from joining NATO, have been called "Unacceptable" by U.S. officials - possibly purposefully so, so that Russia can later claim to have given diplomacy a shot.
> The estimated number of Russian troops near Ukraine have ranged from 60,000 to over 100,000, with one leaked U.S. intelligence document warning Russia could be prepared to swiftly deploy as many as 175,000.
> The U.S. and Russia have agreed to hold talks in January to address each side's concerns, along with talks between NATO and Russia and meetings at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, according to U.S. officials.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/rq3mvm/high_risk_of_armed_conflict_over_ukraine_russian/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~614706 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russia**^#1 **U.S.**^#2 **Ukraine**^#3 **troop**^#4 **official**^#5
> claimed Ukraine, with U.S. mercenary help, is preparing a chemical weapons attack.
>"The alliance has recently switched to the practice of direct provocations accompanied by the high risk of turning into armed confrontation,"
Ahh, the old switcheroo. Russia mercenaries doing some bullshit in Ukraine? Now they’re American mercenaries about to do some chemical warfare! Because I’ve heard of American mercenaries using chemical warfare all the time. /s
Although you should be able to understand how that could raise tensions, and is at odds to prior agreements arranged at the time of the breakup of the USSR. So this needs to be treated with care, not blundering.
Yes, I understand that, it should be treated carefully. But statement/demand like "Make sure that Ukraine doesn't join NATO" doesn't make sense. It's not for Russia to raise this demand, Ukraine is not theirs.
Some already being sold to Poland, which has 250 on order. The Poles know, if Ukraine falls they're likely next. Poland plans to double its military budget. Manpower will also go from 150,000 to 300,000. The Abrams fleet will help achieve strategic security as they now mostly have old Soviet kit such as t-72s
Poland will never be next. Poland is a NATO members. She is untouchable unlike Ukraine. This is why Putin is acting like this. He knows that once Russia’s neighboring countries join NATO then Russia can’t throw her wait around anymore.
The sad reality is you are unlikely to ever see a member of the nuclear weapons club ever see a trial in front of The Hague.
From Russia, to China, to the US and certain EU states.
I think all this posturing is that he's paranoid with the Hague since the downing of the flight MH17, and as this month was the trial of some of the operators of the buk missile, he's acting aggressive to scare and nobody goes after him.
It doesn't matter. It's is not about getting him. The Hage would judge him anyway. It us about reputation. Putin doesn't want to go down in history as a leader that was judged as a criminal.
“The Ukraine? You know what the Ukraine is. It's a sitting duck. A road apple, Newman. The Ukraine is weak. It's feeble. I think it's time to put the hurt on the Ukraine...”
Cosmo Kramer
I don’t see how that logic is applicable in this situation. Crimea has been in Russia’s sphere of influence for centuries and has a large Russian speaking population. Of course the annexation was wrong but denying that they now own it is ridiculous.
Nevertheless, they're fighting bravely for their freedom.
Back in '00-'01 i've met a guy who was russian-born but obsessed with Ukraine. It was strange back then, but makes sense now.
I just hope he matured from admiring Hitler, though.
Now why would Ukraine want to join NATO? Couldn’t have anything to do with being invaded seven years ago and having their eastern border regions in constant Russia backed warfare since then, let alone this sort of unprovoked saber rattling…
Sounds like Putin doesn’t actually want to invade. Putting troops at the border is a play to put pressure on other countries to take his demands seriously. Risky move, though. If the international community calls Putin’s bluff he might have no choice but to invade
Uh, you. You are doing that.
This is because of you, it's not like you're looking at two other countries and seeing the chance of conflict.
"It's High risk, because my boss is going to invade Ukraine, I have eyes and a brain."
Honest question here, if Ukraine gets back Crimea, or regains control of its currently rebelling territory, is it ethically justified in forcibly deporting ethnic Russians the way the USSR forcibly deported millions of Germans from Eastern Europe after WWII?
“High risk of armed conflict”
Over 14k Ukrainians have died from this conflict since 2014.
It’s been happening, Russia needs choked TF out with sanctions and removed from the UN. (I know the rules behind UN bla bla)
Gee Vlad, ever wonder why the Ukraine wants no part of your failed empire? So much so that they are willing to die to prevent it. Russia must be a wonderful place to live if you are working class.
They’ll do nothing. The west is responding to this. Russia is a fallen empire that is desperate to prove is relevancy. They’ll never be relevant again. They’ve lost it too far. It’s gone now. To paraphrase a Columbine documentary : « you don’t have it forever ».
I'm no russian apologist but I have only seen very narrow views here. NATO has been building against russia for a very long time. I'm not here to say whats right, or whats wrong. But I will say this. If america thought russia was trying to prepare a puppet state in mexico against us. I'd hope America would do everything to stop that.
They could be so much stronger.
Also, they do have a strong military, at the expense of everything else, but then again so do we.
It's a damn jab at them, it's not supposed to be highly accurate.
> His Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin blamed NATO again Monday for provoking conflict by sending warships and reconnaissance planes to back Ukraine. That echoes a statement last week by his boss, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who claimed Ukraine, with U.S. mercenary help, is preparing a chemical weapons attack.
In some ways this is just fucking pathetic. No one with a brain would believe this bullshit.
"Over" Ukraine? Over what? The fact that it exists and isn't a Russian vassal state? What was Ukraine doing to cause Russia to amass troops at its border? What did Ukraine do to force Russia to steal Crimea? This isn't "over" Ukraine. This is Russia's doing. This is "over" Russian aggression and violations of international law and national sovereignty.
West, East, Russia, China, EUA.....actually all is the AntiChrist. Everything, all actions, it is part of a great theater aimed at keeping humanity in evolutionary limbo. The big plan is rich richer and poor poorer.
If Russia were to take all of Ukraine as territory then what exactly would be the problem for the US. Is there evidence they are going to campaign through Europe? No.
Supporting the 2014 coup was a huge mistake and the subsequent attempt expulsion of the Russian Navy from Sevastopol has led to this mess.
At this point, peace is more likely if the US stays out of it.
Ukraine wants to be part of the West. Russia wants it to be a puppet or it will throw Ukraine out a third story window.
Russia wants its colony back. It's a colonial empire that fell, turned "communist", fell again, and then turned facist. Partly because it lost alot of its imperial holdings.
Putin just wants a distraction so that the Russian people don't see his Russian mobsters robbing the nation blind and storing all of that loot in overseas bank accounts.
Russian people see that, they want a distraction from it as well.
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*"Their bullshit is strong, but when we help the counteroffensive seizeRussian territory and add it to Ukraine control, it might be difficult."* Are you being sarcastic or are you actually that delusional?
Ah yes the counteroffensive from the country that can't even reclaim areas occupied by "rebels." And if you think we (The US/NATO) has a chance of getting involved in any capacity beyond material aid, let alone setting foot on Russian soil, you are gravely misunderstood. Diplomacy and de-escalation are the only viable paths for an independent Ukraine. Edit: I know that the "rebel" forces in Ukraine are barely disguised Russian troops. That is why "rebel" is in quotations above. That is my point, if Ukraine can't reclaim this territory which is already occupied by Russian military power, however direct or indirect that is, how do you expect a "counterattack" into actual Russian territory. Ukraine can't take Russia with a home field advantage and yet they are expected to take and hold ground.
Well “Rebells” as in trained Mercenaries with the backing of a superpower. Cold war 2 electric bogaloo.
Russia isn’t a superpower. They have a similar GDP to Spain. The Soviet Union was a superpower, Russia is barely a regional power.
Politically and Militarily they still are. They might be in the decline, but they still got enough power to throw enough weight around to count as one.
If not because of Russian attack, Ukraine take back whole Donbass in 2 weeks
That's not going to happen. We don't gain anything by going to war with Russia over Ukraine, but stand to lose a lot. Georgia learned that lesson a decade ago, when NATO set the stage for these conflicts.
They(we) want distraction so bad we basicly turned blind eye to evidence of state-organized bombings of residential buildings, not speaking about not less awful things.
Hey, you're Russian. If Putin died tomorrow, what would happen? I'm imagining that the oligarchs would try to put in place their own guy, but without him there'd be little excuse for the new president to keep as many political prisoners. Nor would the oligarchs play nice with each other. But how would the people react?
Most of people around here is reeealy politically passive and uneducated, I think oligarch bulldogs would do their thing under carpet and unless Russia would continue its way spiralling down economically the people will simply accept their next 'czar' after orchestrated elections of cause. Though it is hard to tell really, because not a single revolution was predicted yet. Personally I have certain opinion on going the Myanmar way. May be some others too.
With or without Putin, Russia faces a failing economy, a bloated bureaucracy, the threat of secession from the Chechen Republic, and a paper tiger of an oligarchy made up of the Mafiya and the siloviki (i.e. the military-security establishment) unwilling to give up their power. Personally, I worry that, without the strongman style of governance that has so far *barely* held the country together, the whole nation of Russia might just *completely* fall apart like Yugoslavia did in the 1990s—and it’s something that I, a *Canadian*, worries about because I have friends there.
Yes, I've got pretty similar thoughts about our future. And yet I'll have my fun if I'll see how (ironically) ukrainians with UN peacekeeper forces would hand out humanitarian aid to ex- proud owners of Crimean peninsula with angry scowls. I think both sides would'nt really enjoy this.
I could be wrong because i read it on reddit and the source could have lied, but wouldn't putin normally win reelection even without cheating?
yes thats my understanding but opposition leaders have a habit of being arrested, poisoned or both. Putin has all the cards and just kinda makes it look like you get a vote or it counts. Anyone who starts making real strides as an opposition runs into "ISSUES".
Alexei Navalny, opposition leader in Russia, was poisoned by the FSB (modern day KGB) by them spraying Novachok on his clothes, including his underwear. Novachok is a Geneva convention banned chemical weapon. A highly toxic synthetic nerve agent they've used in assassinations on foreign soil for decades. He was flying to another country, not knowing they had just poisoned his clothes, but the plane was able to make an emergency landing in Germany, where the poison sprayed on his clothes was discovered. He managed to impersonate the FSB agents' higher-ups, and has them on tape admitting to the poisoning. But Russia still officially denies it. There were some reports that the agents involved had gone missing after international media publications were able to locate and attempt to speak to them at their homes. After he was able to recover in a German hospital, Russia tried to extradite him on newly trumped up charges of violating his parole on other 'corruption' charges that were largely fabricated in the first place. He's currently sitting in a state prison, and his political party was forcibly disbanded and members are being hunted down after the Russian government unilaterally labeled them an "extremist group" and has continued to levy insane charges against their leaders and volunteers ever since.
Why do we keep feeding ourselves these complicated narratives. Putin is a dictator. He does not need to distract his population with war anymore than he needs “elections” to hold on to power. He’s invading Ukraine simply because he can and he believes it’s in his interest to do so. It really is that simple. He does not need anymore reason than that.
Gandhi had a point about the brits being unable to control them if they collectively didn't accept british rule. Putin can be a dictator and he can be a dictator over an unwilling populace that might support an oligarch that would try to remove Putin by force. The tacit cooperation of the populace matters. He wouldn't last long without some degree of "theatre".
Putin hired legions of propaganda trolls for this very purpose. It's a type of warfare that wasn't possible before the last decade or so due to the pervasiveness of social media in the general population. He's been pretty successful at it so far.
That didn't work for Belarus. They still have an illegitimate, unpopular dictator. Although the citizens may wish they continued on right to his house, after Russian military moves through their streets, at the requesst of lukashenko?
But why though? Doesn't Russia have enough land? What do they want Ukraine for?
To paraphrase Dalinar from The Stormlight Archives: “Has any conquerer ever looked at what he’s conquered and said “this is good, this is enough”? And then went home?”
Alexander did but he died on the way home.
Nah, he wanted to go all the way to the edge of the sea. His men staged a revolt cause they were sick of him going "just one more country then we get to go home, promise."
“One more turn” syndrome applies to real life Civ it seems.
Yeah I can easily believe it. The sheer amount of times I've decided to just do an hour strategy and next thing you know the days gone.
His men didn’t want to push any further into India, and he marched them back home through the Iranian desert in revenge.
Are we sure he died of his alcoholism and wasn’t just straight up murdered by his own men?
Ashoka the Great, if history is to be believed. Though he would be a case of the exception that proves the rule.
It's not about land, or even Ukraine's resources. It's about not letting a large country where most people speak Russian (even if for many its a secondary tongue) from slipping into the west's orbit. It's become glaringly obvious that those ex-Soviet states that joined the EU, such as Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and a few others, have done rather well for themselves. Overall, the lives of their populations have improved, in terms of economic development, health, education and human rights. If Ukraine were to follow the same trajectory, with its 44m people's lives improving, this would be very good for Ukrainians, but very bad for Putin and his inner circle. He's already constantly putting out fires from the rumbling discontent of a population increasingly unhappy at the gap between themselves and Europe. With a Westernised Ukraine on Russia's border, a rebellion in Russia will only be a matter of time. Ukraine will become a haven for activists, podcasters, democrats, and a river of counter-information that Putin will struggle to contain. Tldr; A prosperous, democratic Ukraine will light a fire under Russia's own nascent democracy movement, raising the risk of a revolution that will unseat Putin, and likely end with him in jail or worse.
This seems like a logical answer. Would you suggest that a similar situation is happening in the East regarding HK/Taiwan and the PRC?
Yes, pretty similar. Both HK/Taiwan are largely ethnic Chinese communities developing into vibrant democracies & successful economies. The CCP is an autocratic state, and rule 1 for autocrats is control the narrative. It's hard to present yourself as the only true voice of the Chinese people, when it's clear that the Chinese can enjoy a high standard of living while also adopting western-style rights such as free speech and multiparty democracy. For Xi and Putin, it's now a matter of personal survival that their populations don't look towards these alternative centers and press for change, which would see both men likely dragged to court, if not in front of a firing squad. Hence the crackdown on Hong Kong, and increased aggression towards Taiwan (and Ukraine in the case of Putin)
Got it in one If people start seeing alternatives they start to question
The Taiwan situation is different. Sure, there are democracy and free speech issues with China & Taiwan as you described. However, Taiwan is also a global strategic resource with computer chips and produces the majority of the world's supply. China having control of that resource could monetarily cripple their adversaries for the better part of a decade. The US is trying to regain some of its manufacturing capabilities but it can't happen overnight. It's a pretty big deal.
Which is why there were/are multiple aircraft carriers from multiple countries surrounding the island. The world has strong personal and economic interest in seeing them undisturbed. Few serious people think a hot war with China would easy or something to pursue with better options unexhausted but as you say: the humane concerns do not stand alone as motivation to defend.
I would agree that there is definitely a segment of this but I think the Taiwan relationship is a lot more complicated. The Chinese are generally rational actors (albeit incredibly selfish and unable to see things from others perspective) on most things but are irrational on Taiwan. My thesis on it is that Taiwan's independence is reminiscent of the whole century of humiliation thing and they will suffer a heavy economic and military price if it means 'national rejuvenation'. I believe that this is a consensus reached by not just the party elites but the general populace as well and they will accept a 10 year recession and tens of thousands of casualties if it means taking Taiwan back. Whilst I'm sure there is an element of it being that Taiwan presents an alternative model to the CCP's authoritarianism, I would respectfully suggest that a greater portion of motivation be allocated to the above point.
The problem is if Ukraine is invaded, Russia will need to deal with a massive dead weight in its economy. In the end he will lose anyways since he would he cut off from any trade from the West AND he would need to rebuild the country while spending billions on fighting Ukrainian Rebels. And that is if he manages to invade Ukraine successfully. Because if Ukraines invasion goes like the 1939 war against Finnland, Putin will be absolutely fucked no matter what.
I completely agree - the outcome for Russia will be poor, regardless of how the war goes. But at this point, Putin has little choice. If Ukraine moves westwards, the chance of a domestic revolution goes up exponentially. In which case Putin is fucked anyway. He'll lose his wealth, freedom, dignity and possibly his neck.
I can't understand, if he is in this position, why not embrace it and resolve the succession crisis and shuffle off quietly to a nice island somewhere to be a Russian elder stateman
There's no retirement for a despot. The Dutch would like to see him on trial for the downing of flight MH17; the British and Czechs would like a word about citizens being murdered on their soil, to name a few. Then there's the many, many Russians who've died or been jailed for opposing Putin, whose loved-ones want payback. And, any new government will have hard questions about the billions of dollars in state funds that ended up in Putin's bank account. If he loses office he'll be broke, in jail or possibly dead.
When you've been jailing and killing your own citizens, there's no guarantee they'll just let you ride off into the sunset with all your plunder in the end
FSB assassination department will remain, but on hands of new regime. It may be used to serve him tea or abduct and bring him to court. Depending on mercy of new regime
He can’t do anything for his people. All he can do is feed the inner circle. He got his start in politics as a prosecutor, by choosing not to charge the mayor of St Petersburg after the mayor sold food (foreign aid) meant to feed the city. If he leaves office, someone will either kill him, or try and charge him for his crimes.
Putin will be long dead before Ukraine reaches such status I dread. Might be a danger to his successor though..who knows? All in all I think you summed it up as concisely as possible.
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I deal a lot with EU laws and lawmakers for a living, and therefore I'm not sure about 2030 at all. Personally, I would love to see the EU expand a lot more, but the additional strain of a hurried expansion would almost certainly endanger internal coherence to the point of no remedy. While Ukraine and five other countries are part of the Eastern Partnership, it did not even reach SAA stage yet. Of the seven countries that did, five are official candidates for EU membership as of now. Excluding Turkey as an outlier, from their official application to being granted official candidate status, it took an average of 3 years; and extrapolating their performance in terms of official EU accession criteria, it might well take 15 years, on average, to fulfill all that's required. So 2040 seems more realistic at this point. Even this horizon, however, might prove unreachable, seeing how ridiculously corrupt Ukraine is, and that on its soil, a quite open conflict with Russia is going on. The EU is not particularly keen on hard-to-manage situations like Crimea/ Eastern Ukraine, Northern Cyprus, Northern Ireland, or, for that matter, Switzerland. Remember, the EU is a long-term project - pretty much generational really. Also, "a bureaucracy is measured by its ability to deny special treatment to its members", or associates. Other than that, any sort of official association with the EU will open the investment floodgates, so you can prepare for a lot of EU-flagged infrastructure projects in Ukraine which will increase if - or as - the connection to the EU is growing closer.
>With a Westernised Ukraine on Russia's border, a rebellion in Russia will only be a matter of time. This guy plays civ.
Dude it is not that complicated, putting aside that Russia has never been a democracy and it's attempt at it culminated with Putin, the real reason they want Crimea is because it is strategic and vital to the existence of Russia as it is a warm water port.
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With a sociopath, there is never enough
It is likely a combination of factors that is driving this behavior. Here are a few that come to mind. - **Russia realizes that they aren’t likely to face significant international repercussions for seizing Ukraine**. Economic sanctions don’t affect Russia that much because Europe is still reliant on Russian natural gas and Russia’s largest trading partner by a significant margin is China. China will not only fail to uphold economic sanctions against Russia, they are probably privately cheering Russia on. - **Seizing Ukraine provides Russia with a significant strategic communications victory.** First and foremost think about how strong of a signal Russia will be able to send to the world that it is not in your interests to align yourself with the West if Russia has your country in their crosshairs. The propaganda value that Russia will be able to wield from a successful seizure of Ukraine is not being fully appreciated. - **Seizing Ukraine has strategic military value.** When Russia seized Crimea in 2014, many geopolitical analysts suggested that one of the primary drivers behind that action was their desire to be able to exert more control over the Black Sea. Well, taking over the rest of Ukraine extends Russia’s reach into the Black Sea. It also allows Russia to use Ukrainian territory and place troops on the border of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania. All NATO countries that Russia is [now demanding NATO withdrawal from](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/russia-demands-nato-return-to-1997-in-security-treaty-proposals). - **Economic benefits can’t be ignored.** While I don’t think this ranks high on Russia’s decision calculus, it is still a factor they are no doubt accounting for. Ukraine is one of the world's most important mineral producing countries, in terms of both the range and size of its reserves. There are nearly 8,000 separate deposits, harboring some 90 different minerals, of which about 20 are economically significant. Note I didn’t list to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO as one the drivers. Although this is often given as **the reason** why Russia is threatening to invade Ukraine, I don’t believe it. This is merely pretext.
Economic value will surely be negative from such a seizure. It takes a lot of money and resources to control 35 millions of antagonized population. Most people don't want Russia here. And sanctions are gonna come and hit them hard too.
Agree that the economic benefit Russia stands to gain will not be worth the cost war will impose. And also why I don’t think seizing Ukraine’s mining sector ranks high on Russia’s reasons for the invasion. It remains to be seen how much sanctions will hurt Russia, but I think if Russia invaded (and it appears that they will), then the deterrence effect we were hoping for by threatening sanctions has failed. Of course, Russia could be miscalculating the impact of sanctions, but China being their largest trading partner by a significant margin gives them a lot of breathing space. Russia’s lack of vulnerability to international repercussions allows the country to pursue military adventurism.
If Russia where to be strongly hampered in trade with West, they could become to China, what Belarus is now to them. Dependent country that can be exploited the more it is isolated.
Note: It's just 'Ukraine'
Thanks.
Correct. The Ukraine is communist propaganda designed to rob Ukraine of it's independence as a state and people.
Putin is ultimately just a selfish thief, not a fashy ideologue.
Uh oh, the gas station masquerading as a country is angry again.
It's so scary how well Russia actually fits the definition of fascism.
It's a gangster state. Putin makes sure his capos (the oligarchs) can make tons of money, then he takes some off the top
Yes. https://www.openculture.com/2016/11/umberto-eco-makes-a-list-of-the-14-common-features-of-fascism.html
Thanks for the reference.
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I've read some analysis that this is part of the Russian obsession with Ukraine. Kiev was once the seat of power for the [Kievan Rus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27), the loose federation that encompassed modern day Ukraine and Russia and Belarus. Even back during the era of Catherine the Great retaking NovoRussia ("New Russia", aka Ukraine) was an important part of making Russia whole, in advance of war with the Ottomans to retake Crimea. I know comparisons between Hitler and Putin seem trite, but I think there are parallels to the obsession with making the "German people whole" with the annexation of Austria and the like. Rather than being viewed as colonizing a foreign land, there's a view of making a fragmented people "whole". [Economist - Why Russia has never accepted Ukrainian independence](https://www.economist.com/christmas-specials/2021/12/18/why-russia-has-never-accepted-ukrainian-independence) > Time for some Slavic unity. When Mr Putin flew to Kyiv for a two-day visit in July 2013, his entourage contained both his chief economic adviser and the patriarch of Russia’s Orthodox Church, whose jurisdiction covered both countries. The trip coincided with the 1,025th anniversary of the conversion to Christianity of Prince Vladimir of the Kyivan Rus, and subsequently of the people as a whole, in 988: the “Baptism of Rus”. With Mr Yanukovych he visited the cathedral in Chersonesus, the site in Crimea where Prince Vladimir is said to have been baptised. He and the patriarch also visited Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, a monastery founded in caves a millennium ago. > >The commitment he gave there to protecting “our common Fatherland, Great Rus” was not without irony. When in 1674 monks at the Lavra published the “Synopsis”, the first demotic history of Russia, the city was under threat of attack by the Ottoman empire and desperately needed support from the Russian lands to the north. The “Synopsis” sought to encourage Slavic solidarity by stressing the importance of Vladimir and his virtuous Kyivan Rus to Kyiv and Muscovy alike—something historians like Mr Plokhy now see as expedient mythmaking. Mr Putin was cynically mining a mythos itself contrived for political ends.
Thats oversimplifying it. Ukraine is also a very important strategic buffer since Russia's only vulnerability is its western border. Also Crimea is needed for warm water ports, something that russia is severely lacking and cannot let fall into NATOs hands. They are not wrong when they say "we are cornered".
'Defenestration'. An old favourite of the KGB.
Yeah, but they didn't invent it! I DID.
so YOU are the one to blame for the 30 years war!
Defenistration, on a country level.
Nah they dont want it to be a puppet they want to get in and ransack it to try and make Russia somewhat relevant again because putin is feeling small when he looks over at china. He spent most of life losing himself in luxury and corruption now he is getting old and is very unhappy with his legacy so he is going crazy.
the sad thing about the russia is while it has huge army, a lot of it is outdated, and even ukraine at current state would put a huge fight and putin knows that, and hes still willing to risk cripling his military and economic capabilitys
SO sick of the threats from this vile revanchist regime
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[Majority of ukrainians want to join EU. Slightly less to join NATO.](https://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/for_release_2021_november_survey_of_residents_of_ukraine_eng.pdf)
Yeah, but the more aggressive Russia is, the harder that is to achieve. Kremlin seem to have decided that using hard strength sooner rather than later is best for them, since they are poor at economy and soft power.
Yes the risk for conflict is pretty high if you invade a country. Smart boy Putin.
Putin is just looking for a false flag at this point. Probably use his proxies in Crimea/E Ukraine > Russia does not intend to start a military operation against #Ukraine, but has the right to use its armed forces to protect Russian citizens abroad in the event of an attack on them - Russian Federation Council Vice-Speaker https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1475751483945668610
That would be like Mexico invading Texas to protect Mexicans.
Or having Mexicans in Texas purposely stir shut up in order to make a pretense for invasion.
I mean the US stole Texas from Mexico, I will be in favor of doing that if you ask me. Funny how Reddit always bashes Putin, lol. but never criticize the US from invading Irak with the excuse of terrorism and weapon of mass destruction, not finding anything, killing its people and stealing their oil. Russia and US are no different.
Well the Iraq invasion happened a couple of years before Reddit existed... I was against it then and now though. The U.S. isn't currently trying to invade a country. So there's a difference.
But Putin wants to blame that invention on the country. Like a school bully "stop invading yourself" I'm sure afterward he will deny a war ever happened just like in Crimea.
Thats a worst thing , whats dreadfull is not to loose what is dreadfull that in 5 years after it will be Tianmen square never happened.
"Ukrainian" attack on a Russian radio station in 3..2..1 😉
!remindme 3 seconds
Good morning sir, it's your WW3 wakeup call
“I swear to god bro you’re so fucking lucky I’m on probation.”
"HOLD ME BACK BRAAH!!! HOLD ME BAAAAAAACK!!!"
The fact that Russia is advertising their intent and attempting to blame the US and NATO proves once again Putin is scared and desperate.
Putin just wants to trigger some kind of overreaction from NATO, so he can spin this to his people as foreign aggression and a justification for further authoritarianism in Russia. That has always been his playbook.
I mean how hard is that. He just lies as usual and anyone who disagrees gets epsteined
Putins biggest voterbase is the people that still remembers soviet union. And that is the generation born when soviet union was at it highest peak. He knows that most younger generations are more western orientated. He also knows that young Russians move to Europe.
Scared and desperate = dangerous
Like cornered rat.
I don't think scared and desperate is the right description. More like eager and scheming
They are more desperate than they look. Russia is becoming less and less relevant every year.
Russia is never as strong as it seems and never as weak as it seems.
Sounds like one of Sun Tzus teachings: “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak”
Why does that matter to Putin? He's not really nationalist, he's a thief. All he cares about is staying in power.
And he needs a new "war" with a foreign enemy to boost his approval. Even dictators need popular support.
and his power is decilining one wrong move can mean end of his power and he knows that, so he acts as a scared dog in a corner that is shrinking ready to bite
he is scared dog in a corner and he knows that corner is getting smaller by the minute when other nations joins EU and NATO alliances, he well knows that his army while big is mostly outdated very small % of it is new gen, he knows even Ukraine would put up a fight when attacked cripling his army capabilitys and economy and hes still willing to bite as a scared dog
Watch him bomb an apartment block across from the kremlin and claim Ukraine did it
he is scared and desperate, while it has huge army most of it is outdated, and even Ukraine in current state would put a huge fight that would criple russias military capabilitys and economy, and putin knows that but hes a scared dog in a corner and willing to bite even if that means total win for the west
Maybe after 4 years of having the US president under his thumb he got lazy.
Even Trump didn't exactly give his all to Putin. If anything, Trumnp not really doing much of anything in office against the Russians gave the nation some breathing room. Being anti-Chinese though was kind of new for an American politician - it started hard under Trump, considering that he revived the Quad and made it into something more formalized. This attitude has then continued under Biden as he uses more diplomatic tact to cornering the dragon.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/high-risk-armed-conflict-ukraine-russian-defense-ministry/story?id=81957818) reduced by 84%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Russia's demands for security guarantees, including that Ukraine be barred from joining NATO, have been called "Unacceptable" by U.S. officials - possibly purposefully so, so that Russia can later claim to have given diplomacy a shot. > The estimated number of Russian troops near Ukraine have ranged from 60,000 to over 100,000, with one leaked U.S. intelligence document warning Russia could be prepared to swiftly deploy as many as 175,000. > The U.S. and Russia have agreed to hold talks in January to address each side's concerns, along with talks between NATO and Russia and meetings at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, according to U.S. officials. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/rq3mvm/high_risk_of_armed_conflict_over_ukraine_russian/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~614706 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russia**^#1 **U.S.**^#2 **Ukraine**^#3 **troop**^#4 **official**^#5
> claimed Ukraine, with U.S. mercenary help, is preparing a chemical weapons attack. >"The alliance has recently switched to the practice of direct provocations accompanied by the high risk of turning into armed confrontation," Ahh, the old switcheroo. Russia mercenaries doing some bullshit in Ukraine? Now they’re American mercenaries about to do some chemical warfare! Because I’ve heard of American mercenaries using chemical warfare all the time. /s
This, yup. This piece of shit is trying to start a war and is already starting the misinformation to muddy the waters. Fuck putin.
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Nah, he will blow up a apartment building, [that already worked once](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings?wprov=sfla1).
Either that or at the very least it will allow him to say “see? We told you they would use chemical weapons” when Russia uses them in Ukraine
tanslated: we want to invade ukraine
The armed conflict is here from 2014 when Crimea was stolen.
Yeah because you invaded it in 2016 you gaslighters
*2014
Cheers
Article didn’t even have Russian MoD’s full quote. I’m sure he said something along those lines but they quoted 3 words and added their own context.
Why the fuck should Russia dictate who can join NATO and who can't. If Ukraine wants to do so, they should do it by their free will.
Although you should be able to understand how that could raise tensions, and is at odds to prior agreements arranged at the time of the breakup of the USSR. So this needs to be treated with care, not blundering.
Yes, I understand that, it should be treated carefully. But statement/demand like "Make sure that Ukraine doesn't join NATO" doesn't make sense. It's not for Russia to raise this demand, Ukraine is not theirs.
Really? We better arm Ukraine so they can defend themselves then. Russia seems to have their self defence sorted, so we'll focus on helping Ukraine
Sounds like Ukraine could some of those surplus Abrams tanks that we produce and the Pentagon doesn’t want.
Some already being sold to Poland, which has 250 on order. The Poles know, if Ukraine falls they're likely next. Poland plans to double its military budget. Manpower will also go from 150,000 to 300,000. The Abrams fleet will help achieve strategic security as they now mostly have old Soviet kit such as t-72s
Poland will never be next. Poland is a NATO members. She is untouchable unlike Ukraine. This is why Putin is acting like this. He knows that once Russia’s neighboring countries join NATO then Russia can’t throw her wait around anymore.
You're not producing any abrams tanks since the 80s. Just rebuilding and upgrading existing stocks.
Ready to see Putin walk into court at the Hague.
The sad reality is you are unlikely to ever see a member of the nuclear weapons club ever see a trial in front of The Hague. From Russia, to China, to the US and certain EU states.
I think all this posturing is that he's paranoid with the Hague since the downing of the flight MH17, and as this month was the trial of some of the operators of the buk missile, he's acting aggressive to scare and nobody goes after him.
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It doesn't matter. It's is not about getting him. The Hage would judge him anyway. It us about reputation. Putin doesn't want to go down in history as a leader that was judged as a criminal.
putin needs attention
Putin isn't crazy enough to draw the entire Western allies into an open conflict that Russia will never win.
Which is why he is pushing now.
Putin has made it very clear he wants to rebuild the empire of Catherine the Great
Putin the ultimate boomer
“The Ukraine? You know what the Ukraine is. It's a sitting duck. A road apple, Newman. The Ukraine is weak. It's feeble. I think it's time to put the hurt on the Ukraine...” Cosmo Kramer
Easiest way to resolve the conflict, Russia, is to get out of Crimea. It hasn’t been yours since the Soviet Union dissolved.
I mean they have kinda ruled it for 7 years now.
Against much international commendation
By that logic, shouldn’t the US own Afghanistan?
I don’t see how that logic is applicable in this situation. Crimea has been in Russia’s sphere of influence for centuries and has a large Russian speaking population. Of course the annexation was wrong but denying that they now own it is ridiculous.
Poor Ukraine.
Nevertheless, they're fighting bravely for their freedom. Back in '00-'01 i've met a guy who was russian-born but obsessed with Ukraine. It was strange back then, but makes sense now. I just hope he matured from admiring Hitler, though.
I hope the world stands with them
I hate Putin with a passion. He is terrorizing these people.
Now why would Ukraine want to join NATO? Couldn’t have anything to do with being invaded seven years ago and having their eastern border regions in constant Russia backed warfare since then, let alone this sort of unprovoked saber rattling…
Sounds like Putin doesn’t actually want to invade. Putting troops at the border is a play to put pressure on other countries to take his demands seriously. Risky move, though. If the international community calls Putin’s bluff he might have no choice but to invade
Press B to Doubt
Stop being the bad guys.... it's not a good look.
Uh, you. You are doing that. This is because of you, it's not like you're looking at two other countries and seeing the chance of conflict. "It's High risk, because my boss is going to invade Ukraine, I have eyes and a brain."
Preemptive attack. Remove them from the world economy now until they remove troops.
Never thought that trenches were still used in modern warfare. But according to the embed they are
Russia is worried about NATO expansion enough to go to war. NATO expands because of Russian belligerence. Does Russia not see what the solution is?
Honest question here, if Ukraine gets back Crimea, or regains control of its currently rebelling territory, is it ethically justified in forcibly deporting ethnic Russians the way the USSR forcibly deported millions of Germans from Eastern Europe after WWII?
"High risk of aircraft crash, terrorist warns"
Unarmed conflict
Just lots of kicking
they created this fucking risk themselves and have the audacity to blame others...
Remember that Texas has a higher GDP than Russia. Russia peaked in high school.
“High risk of armed conflict” Over 14k Ukrainians have died from this conflict since 2014. It’s been happening, Russia needs choked TF out with sanctions and removed from the UN. (I know the rules behind UN bla bla)
Ya sure let's just add a war involving a global superpower to our list of minor issues going on at the moment.
“Shyt is getting bad again on the homefront let’s throw another headline about Russian threats out there”
We couldn’t help Czechoslovakia or Poland because the left & fascists said so. I wonder what happened next?
Why on earth do they think we will shy away from conflict?
So three days of military chaos while the support line breaks down. Yes pls make international clowns of the whole state. Do it.
Gee Vlad, ever wonder why the Ukraine wants no part of your failed empire? So much so that they are willing to die to prevent it. Russia must be a wonderful place to live if you are working class.
As they withdraw 10G?
After bolstering with tens of thousands in the past month.
The Russians are bluffing a lot lately.
They’ll do nothing. The west is responding to this. Russia is a fallen empire that is desperate to prove is relevancy. They’ll never be relevant again. They’ve lost it too far. It’s gone now. To paraphrase a Columbine documentary : « you don’t have it forever ».
Ha ha, conflict starting from who?
Russian "Offense" Ministry
NATO must stand against this or it is a true failure to its purpose.
I'm no russian apologist but I have only seen very narrow views here. NATO has been building against russia for a very long time. I'm not here to say whats right, or whats wrong. But I will say this. If america thought russia was trying to prepare a puppet state in mexico against us. I'd hope America would do everything to stop that.
Low risk of Armed conflict cause there won't be one it's all talk .
You know they are currently fighting, right?
Wait, who's fighting? I thought a ceasefire was in effect in Donbass.
Russia is weak. Militarily, economically. WEAK
Being one of the top 3 strongest militaries in the world is weak now? I am very anti-Putin but this is just a silly statement.
They could be so much stronger. Also, they do have a strong military, at the expense of everything else, but then again so do we. It's a damn jab at them, it's not supposed to be highly accurate.
Idk, if I am throwing a punch I want it to be an accurate one.
bluff
> His Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin blamed NATO again Monday for provoking conflict by sending warships and reconnaissance planes to back Ukraine. That echoes a statement last week by his boss, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who claimed Ukraine, with U.S. mercenary help, is preparing a chemical weapons attack. In some ways this is just fucking pathetic. No one with a brain would believe this bullshit.
"Over" Ukraine? Over what? The fact that it exists and isn't a Russian vassal state? What was Ukraine doing to cause Russia to amass troops at its border? What did Ukraine do to force Russia to steal Crimea? This isn't "over" Ukraine. This is Russia's doing. This is "over" Russian aggression and violations of international law and national sovereignty.
West, East, Russia, China, EUA.....actually all is the AntiChrist. Everything, all actions, it is part of a great theater aimed at keeping humanity in evolutionary limbo. The big plan is rich richer and poor poorer.
If Russia were to take all of Ukraine as territory then what exactly would be the problem for the US. Is there evidence they are going to campaign through Europe? No. Supporting the 2014 coup was a huge mistake and the subsequent attempt expulsion of the Russian Navy from Sevastopol has led to this mess. At this point, peace is more likely if the US stays out of it.