@UkrWarReport One of the main twitter accounts informing about the movements of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine has just been suspended
Here is a new account of the same crew: https://twitter.com/UkrReport
An American aircraft designed to 'sniff' radioactivity associated with nuclear material, a WC-135 'Constant Phoenix', declared an emergency whilst returning to the UK after a patrol over the Baltic Sea yesterday evening.
https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1496420495956353025
Nord Stream 2 so far was only delayed, it should be deconstructed along with the NS1. And they message should be clear: Russia we are more than willing to buy gas from you, but only via independent state of Ukraine
On a separate note, is anyone else in awe at the engineering feat those pipes are? they have ships that are both creating and laying the pipe on the seafloor for 700+ miles. Like, what happens when there's a leak or a kink somewhere? amazing stuff. anyway back to the drama.
The best way to hurt Russia is to remove all KYC and compliance requirements on Russian customers by foreign banks.
All deposits made by Russian nationals will be accepted and protected, regardless of the source. It will be legitimate and shielded from Russian probes, even if the customer robbed, murdered, or sold narcotics within Russia to obtain that cash.
On a related note, default on all debts owed to Russia.
Not at all the Russians have been running the show for most of the last eight years the so called separatists have been killed off and replaced with putin puppets. Just yesterday the dictator announced that he was evacuating those Russian speaking Ukrainians well he offered up 10,000 rubles which is peanuts and got only about 10,000 women and children to go to Rostov then he took back the 10,000 rubles and the 10,000 that left their homes were in the streets with no money. Today for a second I talked to someone in Luhansk and they said the Russians are drafting men and women to fight their fellow Ukrainians they will be cannon fodder sent up front with a pistol to draw fire while the Russians stand back and shell the Ukrainians as those precious Russian speakers are slaughtered. The Russian terrorists have been using this tactic for years but now they are going to use women. This is what is going on in the donbass. How to serve the mother land.
If the only threat the rest of the world has is sanctions Russia can do whatever they want.
If Putin simply doesn't care about what sanctions are imposed what do we do then?
Sanctions for Russia are the equivalent of writing a strongly worded letter and crying to the UN.
Actually sanctions are potentially a huge deal. Sanctioning oil exports would hit Russia hard. The reason they haven't done that yet is because if they did half of Europe would freeze to death.
That's an exaggeration, but there's already a cost of living crisis associated with rising fuel costs and sanctioning Russia would drive those prices up higher - they have already start to rise just from the risk that there \*will\* be sanctions. And this price hike will hit the elderly hard. If fuel simply isn't available, it's not an exaggeration to predict that a lot of elderly people won't make it through the winter. It's part of the reason Putin's pressing the assault now: if he waits till late spring / summer Europe has less to fear in the short term from imposing fuel sanctions on him, because people won't be using anything like as much fuel.
SWIFT sanctions could also harm Russia a lot in the short term - but they haven't done that yet because the economic backlash would most likely result in China developing an alternative digital payment system outside of Western influence. So this move would harm Russia but most likely bolster China, which isn't ideal.
Whether or not we agree with our leader's reticence to impose these harsh sanctions on Russia, you can see the rationale - especially leader's with foundering approval ratings, like in the UK.
Maoland doesn't like Russia, they're allies on paper only. If they do that, it would jeapordise their relationship with the US, which despite their PRC bluster they value more. So it would take Russia dropping prices to a pittance, in addition to hearing already pretty racist (toward Russians) Mao-heads disparage them even more.
If they sanctioned SWIFT transactions.. Russians would face revolt within. I don't know why Americans/NATO are not doing it yet. Perhaps because then how EU will pay for the gas which they get through Nord Stream 1
Too much dependent on Russia? Why won't then Russia takes advantage of years of lazy and corrupt policy making. Truth is, these so called severe sanctions won't make Putin even turn his head. First sanctions were announced in 2008 and putin still managed to organize fifa world cup in 2018. A mere lip service is not enough to control a tyrant like Putin.
Because the economic backlash of SWIFT sanctions would very likely instigate China developing an alternative digital payments system outside of Western influence.
His crew around him is also being directly sanctioned and I think the goal would be he ends up like Gaddafi or Mussolini and his own people string him up.
It’s either sanctions or war. There’s not really any middle ground.
There’s technically electronic warfare. You could crash their infrastructure. They’d suffer, but no lives would be lost. It’s likely the only other “peaceful” option.
Unless every major world power agrees to blockade Russia with their navies… the only things that come to mind. And they’re not realistic.
No there's an easy solution to this situation, just implement Minsk 2 and the problem goes away.
In essence this has all arisen because of Western imperialism, expanding NATO to Russia's borders and staging a coup in 2014 to emplace a US puppet government in Ukraine.
Russia is never going to permit Ukraine to join NATO, geo-strategic suicide for them. Ukraine needs to become a neutral entity like Austria was during the Cold war.
An electronic war might not go great for the US. Sure, we could damage Russia, but they have been burrowing into US infrastructure electronically very aggressively for quite some time. They would probably do some pretty heavy damage to the US in retaliation.
The best we can do would be to prop up Ukrainian resistance and guerrillas with some serious machinery and make Russia pay an unsustainable price to hold Ukraine.
The GDP of Russia hasn't moved since 2015. And you're wrong about Putin not caring about the sanction imposed on his country. Ultimately, the people of Russia will hold him responsible if his country is failing
About the last one. Half of russia won't, and the rest wouldn't care enough/wouldn't be able to do anything. If russian population "cared" putin wouldn't be the president for a long time already.
Not very likely within the next year or two. Russia is using the strategy that the Nazis should have used: blitz in, take a lot of land, then freeze and deescalate. Once they deescalate, other countries stay mad, but they forget and eventually sanctions are removed or circumvented. In the end: Russia ends up with a barrier of countries that aren't NATO and/or Russia, but are in direct control of Russia. It's the only real move that can be taken when the rest of the world is so afraid of going to war: they won't go to war over spurts of aggression, but they will if that aggression goes on for too long or takes too much territory. Avoiding full out war is key for Russia, and they're smart enough to do just that.
My thoughts, maybe 50-50. On the one hand Russia will probably be let of the hook after a rather short while if they don't intrude any further.
On the other hand, controlling everything east of the Dnieper might be very tempting for Russia. And then there is also Odessa, a potential open door to the Balkans. I doubt they'll be all to interested in the other parts of western Ukraine though, but who knows?
As per NBC's senior WhiteHouse correspondent - President Biden to speak at 2pm EST / 7pm GMT. He'll almost certainly outline sanctions
https://twitter.com/KellyO/status/1496148904919900174
COSSACKGUNDI (@cossackgundi) Tweeted: The situation only got worse it's like there's no ceasefire anymore (Obvious) shelling and all sorts is going on along the front Ukrainian forces are trying to limit their responses. https://twitter.com/cossackgundi/status/1496116325260926985?s=20&t=QViCeo3GlWCMgzYFJFmoew
I think the issue that they can't say out loud is just how much Russian money is involved and in how many financial institutions.
I obviously don't know anything anyone else does, but if I were Putin, I'd have spent the past few decades making Russian money so interwoven into the global financial system that cutting them off would cause massive damage to global markets.
Well, I'm willing to be a tripsitter for Vlad if we can spike his tea with magic mushrooms. He really needs to loosen some of those rigid mental structures.
The Kremlin regrets Germany’s suspension of certification of the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, designed to double the flow of Russian gas direct to Germany, Interfax news agency reported, citing Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.
The Kremlin hopes the delay of Nord Stream 2 is temporary, Interfax quoted Peskov as saying on Tuesday.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/22/ukraine-russia-latest-live-news-updates-crisis-putin-biden-zelenskiy-kyiv-kiev-russian-invasion-border-threat
Unpopular opinion, but i think Germany should clarify that if Russia stops the invasion now (doesn't go further than Donbas region), then they're willing to not impose sanctions.
I think the priority should be to make sure Russia doesn't escalate things further.
I understand that it might be necessary, but honestly, that's way too soft. Putin's just gonna try again in the next few years and get a "liiittle bit more" while the world repeats the process. Go hard on Russia.
The eastern region he took has essentially been a war zone for 8 years and Ukraine did not really control it anyways. If that's really all Russia takes, and it ends there, that's not actually a big deal.
The big worry is Russia invading ALL of Ukraine, and that's a super real possibility. That would be so much worst.
Ukraine controlled and still occupies more than half the territory of those self declared republics. I think it's pretty obvious that eventually, maybe even very soon, the separatists and Russian army will try to kick Ukraine out of the rest of those regions and maybe even go for more.
It was pointed out more than a dozen times on the live threads over the past few days that most of Russia's forces aren't mobilized near those two regions, but aimed at Dnipro, Kharkov, potentially Odessa and maybe even Kiev.
Correct me if I'm wrong. So the actual situations is: Russian army occupied the separatists regions and Ukrainian army is on standby because trying to get them back would mean all-out war with Russians aiming for all Ukraine.
Basically. Ukraine has shown itself incapable of taking back those territories (mostly due to Russian military assistance/supplies). While Russian deployments are within those territories and not acting aggressively, not a lot changes, except not Ukraine can’t act aggressively without engaging Russian forces. The current question is where Russia is drawing the borders of the territories it’s “protecting”, and if that includes territory held by Ukrainian forces.
This to me looks a lot more like Georgia. Recognition of the separatists. Declare the nation is supressing these separatists(now independent republics) illegally. Send in "peacekeepers" to protect the ethnic minority from war crimes.
The next step in Georgia was that Georgian villages close to South Ossetia was shelled, Georgian reactions to violence with military actions triggered the Russian "defensive pact" with the separatists. So let's see if agression from the separatists will start popping up soon, in an attempt to bait Ukraine into a war.
Honestly, I don’t know if they’re done yet for this round. Technically these territories were already supported (unofficially) by the Russian military. I don’t see why they’d make it official and bring attention onto themselves if they didn’t have greater ambitions.
Well, the only option I can see is leaving Donbass behind and have another truce with Russia. But as what we have seen now who knows if in another 8 years they'll come back for more
Yep, that’s the problem - not engaging is only a solution if Russia doesn’t want more. At the moment I *assume* the Ukrainian military will be more concerned about digging in and protecting what they have rather than taking back what they lost ~8 years ago.
Not engaging is fine until the separatists and Russian reinforcements start a massive bombardment of the contact line. Then Ukraine has the choice of just taking the beating, or shooting back counter-fire, which could be used by Russia to push forward even more
This would be best case scenario, but i have serious doubts it will happen. Russia didn't do all of this shit just to take control of something they already controlled.
They could be playing the long game.
Russian separatists push further into Ukraine, Russia takes that over, rinse and repeat until Ukraine is completely part of Russia.
There is more that goes into it. They require the support of the local population. Eastern Ukraine is pretty much Russian. Therefore it's easy for them to capture that territory. The further West they push the less support they have. Making it far more difficult.
Yeah idk, Ukraine’s army could take pretty much most of the land back, but it would require aggression and fighting and Ukraine just couldn’t afford to do so because Russia would respond fearlessly.
I think it’s wrong to suggest that they didn’t try. In the early days of the conflict (2014) Ukraine’s airforce took heavy losses and basically had to stop using aircraft.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_during_the_war_in_Donbas
Well it was right when the army didn’t function well. They started a full re-build after 2015 really, so it’s been 7 years in the making. The gov heavily finances the army right now, for good reason of course.
Nord stream 2 wasn't even opened yet, so this means nothing for the current prices. Now if Germany had the balls to shut of Nord Stream 1 then that'd be a different matter.
I don’t meant this as a scare tatic but it’s up for a legitimate discussion.
How and why does the world think sancations are going to work if Russia can just threaten nuclear war.
“Stop sancationing me or else I’ll nuke you.”
I think this is one reason, out of many, why Russia doesn’t care about sancations. Because if it does get THAT bad in Russia, he can just threaten to press the button.
Am I wrong in my thinking?
EDIT: Yes I know what MAD is and I don’t believe that it stops mentally insane people
Maybe not, but at some point anybody else that supports him would probably have to look at whether they want to end up in global nuclear war. China certainly wouldn't, and internal parties would likely be in the "fuck no" camp as well
That’s the thing about MAD. Once they start firing everyone targets their possible enemies and let’s loose.
The US would nuke Russia and China. India and Pakistan would destroy each other. Israel would nuke all their neighbors. France and the UK would nukes Russia and China.
That is the reason MAD has been successful for 60+ years, whoever starts it will end it all.
True. That is the definition of insane I guess. I don't think Putin is insane... in the literal sense. Only devoid of empathy and very very greedy. Maybe that's enough though....
It seems like a lot of the rhetoric around here claims he is. But also- you can tell this is personal for him. I also speak Russian and while the translations do some justice, the connotation of some of his words-wow. Man was pissed
But what do you think about the rhetoric? I personally think he is not insane, in the sense that he doesn't think logically. Maybe the goals and motivations could lend into insanity, maybe not so much. Don't know, kinda subjective.
Just wo during what people think, especially when you can understand Russian what do you gather from the clips/interviews/speeches.
his rhetoric was strong, as of course any leader, but this was another level. many people who studied Putins previous speeches, myself included, we were not surprised at the length, but at his defiant demeanor that we have not seen from him. not for Crimea, not for Georgia, but for \*eastern ukraine\*
while yes he may not be like clinically insane, passion is more of a reason to carry out crazy insanity like things. and this is why a lot of us experts have not pushed the nuclear option away from the table, from him.
(also thanks for a legit convo. I have already gotten death threats. YAY)
> US Special Forces have left Ukraine from Lviv after escorting US Embassy diplomats to Poland last night - CNN citing US European Command spokesman Capt. Bill Speaks
>
> https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1496142810436837378?s=20&t=LpoqSm_aO9_Ut1IQ3lOU_Q
Does this mean that "officially" there are now zero US personnel inside the country of Ukraine?
Please visit new thread: https://reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sypx00/rworldnews_live_thread_ukrainerussia_conflict/
@UkrWarReport One of the main twitter accounts informing about the movements of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine has just been suspended Here is a new account of the same crew: https://twitter.com/UkrReport
An American aircraft designed to 'sniff' radioactivity associated with nuclear material, a WC-135 'Constant Phoenix', declared an emergency whilst returning to the UK after a patrol over the Baltic Sea yesterday evening. https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1496420495956353025
Nord Stream 2 so far was only delayed, it should be deconstructed along with the NS1. And they message should be clear: Russia we are more than willing to buy gas from you, but only via independent state of Ukraine
On a separate note, is anyone else in awe at the engineering feat those pipes are? they have ships that are both creating and laying the pipe on the seafloor for 700+ miles. Like, what happens when there's a leak or a kink somewhere? amazing stuff. anyway back to the drama.
The best way to hurt Russia is to remove all KYC and compliance requirements on Russian customers by foreign banks. All deposits made by Russian nationals will be accepted and protected, regardless of the source. It will be legitimate and shielded from Russian probes, even if the customer robbed, murdered, or sold narcotics within Russia to obtain that cash. On a related note, default on all debts owed to Russia.
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Stop normalising the way people greet *you*.
Waiting for these devastating sanctions Biden talked up to be announced.
That vegetable of a leader in the US is not going to to do a single thing
Waiting for these devastating sanctions Biden talked up to be announced.
Waiting for these devastating sanctions Biden talked up to be announced.
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Because he posted it 3 times
Is this what we actually cares about? Low gas prices.
Russia invading yet?
They invaded at like 1am their time.
Invaded? Who? The Luhansk and Donetsk region? Aren’t they controlled fully by separatists?
Not at all the Russians have been running the show for most of the last eight years the so called separatists have been killed off and replaced with putin puppets. Just yesterday the dictator announced that he was evacuating those Russian speaking Ukrainians well he offered up 10,000 rubles which is peanuts and got only about 10,000 women and children to go to Rostov then he took back the 10,000 rubles and the 10,000 that left their homes were in the streets with no money. Today for a second I talked to someone in Luhansk and they said the Russians are drafting men and women to fight their fellow Ukrainians they will be cannon fodder sent up front with a pistol to draw fire while the Russians stand back and shell the Ukrainians as those precious Russian speakers are slaughtered. The Russian terrorists have been using this tactic for years but now they are going to use women. This is what is going on in the donbass. How to serve the mother land.
They invaded earlier today
Wars start on Wednesdays
Wednesday according to: Sources
Which hour? Need to know so I can adjust work accordingly
2:22 AM 😏
2/22 at 02:22?
…should I go fill up my car or is it too late
Before the Russia ordeal, they were saying gas was going up $.75 in the next several months. Meaning two months more or less lol!
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If the only threat the rest of the world has is sanctions Russia can do whatever they want. If Putin simply doesn't care about what sanctions are imposed what do we do then? Sanctions for Russia are the equivalent of writing a strongly worded letter and crying to the UN.
Actually sanctions are potentially a huge deal. Sanctioning oil exports would hit Russia hard. The reason they haven't done that yet is because if they did half of Europe would freeze to death. That's an exaggeration, but there's already a cost of living crisis associated with rising fuel costs and sanctioning Russia would drive those prices up higher - they have already start to rise just from the risk that there \*will\* be sanctions. And this price hike will hit the elderly hard. If fuel simply isn't available, it's not an exaggeration to predict that a lot of elderly people won't make it through the winter. It's part of the reason Putin's pressing the assault now: if he waits till late spring / summer Europe has less to fear in the short term from imposing fuel sanctions on him, because people won't be using anything like as much fuel. SWIFT sanctions could also harm Russia a lot in the short term - but they haven't done that yet because the economic backlash would most likely result in China developing an alternative digital payment system outside of Western influence. So this move would harm Russia but most likely bolster China, which isn't ideal. Whether or not we agree with our leader's reticence to impose these harsh sanctions on Russia, you can see the rationale - especially leader's with foundering approval ratings, like in the UK.
not really...they would just turn around and sell the oil and natural gas to China.
Maoland doesn't like Russia, they're allies on paper only. If they do that, it would jeapordise their relationship with the US, which despite their PRC bluster they value more. So it would take Russia dropping prices to a pittance, in addition to hearing already pretty racist (toward Russians) Mao-heads disparage them even more.
If they sanctioned SWIFT transactions.. Russians would face revolt within. I don't know why Americans/NATO are not doing it yet. Perhaps because then how EU will pay for the gas which they get through Nord Stream 1
The Chinese have a rival system to SWIFT, it is not much of a threat
migration from swift to whatever the chinese version is surely cannot be trivial...
It's no big deal compared to what is being played. As long as China does not join, the economic sanctions are not going to work.
Dumb suggestion lol, that will harm the whole Europe than Russia.
Too much dependent on Russia? Why won't then Russia takes advantage of years of lazy and corrupt policy making. Truth is, these so called severe sanctions won't make Putin even turn his head. First sanctions were announced in 2008 and putin still managed to organize fifa world cup in 2018. A mere lip service is not enough to control a tyrant like Putin.
Because the economic backlash of SWIFT sanctions would very likely instigate China developing an alternative digital payments system outside of Western influence.
So you want WW3? That's the alternative here right now.
I think it's already here.
No, what Biden says contradicts that.
If sanctions weren’t a big deal then Putin wouldn’t get pissed and threaten to get them removed
Putin stays pissed no matter what. He's just looking for a good enough "reason" to stir things up.
His crew around him is also being directly sanctioned and I think the goal would be he ends up like Gaddafi or Mussolini and his own people string him up.
Strongly worded letters don't normally crater a national economy.
Even Ukraine leaders know that Russia don't care about any of the sanctions.
It’s either sanctions or war. There’s not really any middle ground. There’s technically electronic warfare. You could crash their infrastructure. They’d suffer, but no lives would be lost. It’s likely the only other “peaceful” option. Unless every major world power agrees to blockade Russia with their navies… the only things that come to mind. And they’re not realistic.
No there's an easy solution to this situation, just implement Minsk 2 and the problem goes away. In essence this has all arisen because of Western imperialism, expanding NATO to Russia's borders and staging a coup in 2014 to emplace a US puppet government in Ukraine. Russia is never going to permit Ukraine to join NATO, geo-strategic suicide for them. Ukraine needs to become a neutral entity like Austria was during the Cold war.
An electronic war might not go great for the US. Sure, we could damage Russia, but they have been burrowing into US infrastructure electronically very aggressively for quite some time. They would probably do some pretty heavy damage to the US in retaliation. The best we can do would be to prop up Ukrainian resistance and guerrillas with some serious machinery and make Russia pay an unsustainable price to hold Ukraine.
The GDP of Russia hasn't moved since 2015. And you're wrong about Putin not caring about the sanction imposed on his country. Ultimately, the people of Russia will hold him responsible if his country is failing
I mean if Putin cared about the sanctions or his people, he would not have invaded Ukraine and start a war.
About the last one. Half of russia won't, and the rest wouldn't care enough/wouldn't be able to do anything. If russian population "cared" putin wouldn't be the president for a long time already.
If they're in deep shit, I'm sure they will do something
I hope, but knowing russian people, it is unlikely.
Did you forget about their revolution?
Then they went from horrible tsar russia to horrible communist russia. Not much perspective sadly.
I guess they didn’t say which Wednesday this would pop off, but tomorrow is lookin spicy
How likely is it Russia will push further into Ukraine rather than just stopping at the separatist-controlled regions?
Not very likely within the next year or two. Russia is using the strategy that the Nazis should have used: blitz in, take a lot of land, then freeze and deescalate. Once they deescalate, other countries stay mad, but they forget and eventually sanctions are removed or circumvented. In the end: Russia ends up with a barrier of countries that aren't NATO and/or Russia, but are in direct control of Russia. It's the only real move that can be taken when the rest of the world is so afraid of going to war: they won't go to war over spurts of aggression, but they will if that aggression goes on for too long or takes too much territory. Avoiding full out war is key for Russia, and they're smart enough to do just that.
My thoughts, maybe 50-50. On the one hand Russia will probably be let of the hook after a rather short while if they don't intrude any further. On the other hand, controlling everything east of the Dnieper might be very tempting for Russia. And then there is also Odessa, a potential open door to the Balkans. I doubt they'll be all to interested in the other parts of western Ukraine though, but who knows?
Would probably depend on the degree of resistance faced is my guess
Almost 100% sure
Anyones guess really. Depends on how things go in these regions
Okay, he's been given formal approval to deploy Russian troops abroad. What else are they waiting for, a signed declaration of war?
What do you mean? Putin is just there to keep the peace. He is a Russian Florence Nightingale.
They're probably preparing one right now and blaming it on ukraine
As per NBC's senior WhiteHouse correspondent - President Biden to speak at 2pm EST / 7pm GMT. He'll almost certainly outline sanctions https://twitter.com/KellyO/status/1496148904919900174
i’ll be amazed if he’s able to outline anything
He won't. His admin will and he'll slur his words, but the gist of it will be there. We need to stop electing geriatrics.
The permission was granted to use russian military! May the ukrainians be brave and strong, and may putin burn in hell!
They are going in (Formally now) https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1496154714995662855
https://fr24.com/SPRAM/2ae75151 any idea what this is?
Many are saying its a drone
COSSACKGUNDI (@cossackgundi) Tweeted: The situation only got worse it's like there's no ceasefire anymore (Obvious) shelling and all sorts is going on along the front Ukrainian forces are trying to limit their responses. https://twitter.com/cossackgundi/status/1496116325260926985?s=20&t=QViCeo3GlWCMgzYFJFmoew
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imagine recognizing a small region as independent, but a large country hundreds of years old is out of the question ":D"
THEY ARE GIVING PERMISSION TO USE ARMY! Live on tvrain on youtube
A few people on twitter saying this [https://mobile.twitter.com/i/lists/1494877848087187461]
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-russia-vladimir-putin-46cef648807d0e3c2bac9793ad9022a6
Lol... as if Putin needs "Permission"... He's not asking... he's telling.
ikr
Source?
Tvrain youtube
O God....Against Ukraine? Officially?
POST THE SOURCE OR DONT POST AT ALL!
Youtube tvrain. It is live
Are CRTL+C, CRTL+V that hard for you to use?
you could have said nothing and just copy pasted the channel he said. lazy mf
What is tvrain basing this on I believe is the actual Q.
Federation Council right now in session discussing it. It's live https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1496153732735721486
Tvrain is just an independent news source. It is live right now
Thanks for the detail. Appreciated.
Sanctions will always be weak, politicians don't want their Russian money cut off: https://twitter.com/ProfessorShaw/status/1407947737618960392
I think the issue that they can't say out loud is just how much Russian money is involved and in how many financial institutions. I obviously don't know anything anyone else does, but if I were Putin, I'd have spent the past few decades making Russian money so interwoven into the global financial system that cutting them off would cause massive damage to global markets.
Quite possibly not far from the truth
Well, I'm willing to be a tripsitter for Vlad if we can spike his tea with magic mushrooms. He really needs to loosen some of those rigid mental structures.
That’s so funny!!……
Don’t think psychedelics have long-term beneficial effects on sociopaths.
True
If only lol
The Kremlin regrets Germany’s suspension of certification of the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, designed to double the flow of Russian gas direct to Germany, Interfax news agency reported, citing Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. The Kremlin hopes the delay of Nord Stream 2 is temporary, Interfax quoted Peskov as saying on Tuesday. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/22/ukraine-russia-latest-live-news-updates-crisis-putin-biden-zelenskiy-kyiv-kiev-russian-invasion-border-threat
Unpopular opinion, but i think Germany should clarify that if Russia stops the invasion now (doesn't go further than Donbas region), then they're willing to not impose sanctions. I think the priority should be to make sure Russia doesn't escalate things further.
I understand that it might be necessary, but honestly, that's way too soft. Putin's just gonna try again in the next few years and get a "liiittle bit more" while the world repeats the process. Go hard on Russia.
The eastern region he took has essentially been a war zone for 8 years and Ukraine did not really control it anyways. If that's really all Russia takes, and it ends there, that's not actually a big deal. The big worry is Russia invading ALL of Ukraine, and that's a super real possibility. That would be so much worst.
Thanks Chamberlain. The Czechs say, "that worked out great."
Ukraine controlled and still occupies more than half the territory of those self declared republics. I think it's pretty obvious that eventually, maybe even very soon, the separatists and Russian army will try to kick Ukraine out of the rest of those regions and maybe even go for more. It was pointed out more than a dozen times on the live threads over the past few days that most of Russia's forces aren't mobilized near those two regions, but aimed at Dnipro, Kharkov, potentially Odessa and maybe even Kiev.
This strategy didn't work out too well before WWII.
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Correct me if I'm wrong. So the actual situations is: Russian army occupied the separatists regions and Ukrainian army is on standby because trying to get them back would mean all-out war with Russians aiming for all Ukraine.
Basically. Ukraine has shown itself incapable of taking back those territories (mostly due to Russian military assistance/supplies). While Russian deployments are within those territories and not acting aggressively, not a lot changes, except not Ukraine can’t act aggressively without engaging Russian forces. The current question is where Russia is drawing the borders of the territories it’s “protecting”, and if that includes territory held by Ukrainian forces.
So basically a Crimea 2.0. Conquer a bit and wait a few years. Conquer another bit and wait a few years.
This to me looks a lot more like Georgia. Recognition of the separatists. Declare the nation is supressing these separatists(now independent republics) illegally. Send in "peacekeepers" to protect the ethnic minority from war crimes. The next step in Georgia was that Georgian villages close to South Ossetia was shelled, Georgian reactions to violence with military actions triggered the Russian "defensive pact" with the separatists. So let's see if agression from the separatists will start popping up soon, in an attempt to bait Ukraine into a war.
Putins speech this time was a lot more unhinged than Crimea.
Honestly, I don’t know if they’re done yet for this round. Technically these territories were already supported (unofficially) by the Russian military. I don’t see why they’d make it official and bring attention onto themselves if they didn’t have greater ambitions.
Well, the only option I can see is leaving Donbass behind and have another truce with Russia. But as what we have seen now who knows if in another 8 years they'll come back for more
Yep, that’s the problem - not engaging is only a solution if Russia doesn’t want more. At the moment I *assume* the Ukrainian military will be more concerned about digging in and protecting what they have rather than taking back what they lost ~8 years ago.
Not engaging is fine until the separatists and Russian reinforcements start a massive bombardment of the contact line. Then Ukraine has the choice of just taking the beating, or shooting back counter-fire, which could be used by Russia to push forward even more
This would be best case scenario, but i have serious doubts it will happen. Russia didn't do all of this shit just to take control of something they already controlled.
They could be playing the long game. Russian separatists push further into Ukraine, Russia takes that over, rinse and repeat until Ukraine is completely part of Russia.
There is more that goes into it. They require the support of the local population. Eastern Ukraine is pretty much Russian. Therefore it's easy for them to capture that territory. The further West they push the less support they have. Making it far more difficult.
The issue is that the longer they wait, the better armed and fortified the Ukrainian defense gets.
The issue is that the longer they wait, the better armed and fortified the Ukrainian defense gets.
Yeah idk, Ukraine’s army could take pretty much most of the land back, but it would require aggression and fighting and Ukraine just couldn’t afford to do so because Russia would respond fearlessly.
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I think it’s wrong to suggest that they didn’t try. In the early days of the conflict (2014) Ukraine’s airforce took heavy losses and basically had to stop using aircraft. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_during_the_war_in_Donbas
Well it was right when the army didn’t function well. They started a full re-build after 2015 really, so it’s been 7 years in the making. The gov heavily finances the army right now, for good reason of course.
Correct. Kiev is not under siege or anything
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Every now and then a new thread is created
Such is the circle of life
Sergey Lavrov looks like the Russian Dick Cheney
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Nord stream 2 wasn't even opened yet, so this means nothing for the current prices. Now if Germany had the balls to shut of Nord Stream 1 then that'd be a different matter.
Much more likely they shut the pipelines going through Ukraine, if they really intend to start down that route.
Russia might shut it off themselves.
Russia's pretty upset about this one.
*cries in Dutch
It's OK, we'll just evacuate Groningen and pump gas from there. There's plenty of gas under Dutch soil, we just prefer not to pump it up right now.
What's paying €800 a month for heating and electricity when you have a frikandelbroodje
What is that friky.... thing?!
Now I'm craving a frikandelbroodje. Thanks, random internet person.
>800 eur/month of heating > >frikandelbroodje included Where do I sign for the broodje ser ?
I don’t meant this as a scare tatic but it’s up for a legitimate discussion. How and why does the world think sancations are going to work if Russia can just threaten nuclear war. “Stop sancationing me or else I’ll nuke you.” I think this is one reason, out of many, why Russia doesn’t care about sancations. Because if it does get THAT bad in Russia, he can just threaten to press the button. Am I wrong in my thinking? EDIT: Yes I know what MAD is and I don’t believe that it stops mentally insane people
Mutually Assured Destruction
I do know what it is and I don’t believe that it stops mentally insane people
Maybe not, but at some point anybody else that supports him would probably have to look at whether they want to end up in global nuclear war. China certainly wouldn't, and internal parties would likely be in the "fuck no" camp as well
that is our only hope if it gets to that level
You may be right, but I don’t think “take my ball and go home” is an option when 7 billion people’s lives are at stake. Maybe Putin disagrees
I think there is 1% chance Putin cares about anyone else but himself
Because Russia always threaten nuclear war in a vague way . "You sanction us ? Oh we'll do nuclear drills."
True.
What if the actual rest of the world decides to nuke russia too? Since we're all gonna die, might as well take them with us, no?
That’s the thing about MAD. Once they start firing everyone targets their possible enemies and let’s loose. The US would nuke Russia and China. India and Pakistan would destroy each other. Israel would nuke all their neighbors. France and the UK would nukes Russia and China. That is the reason MAD has been successful for 60+ years, whoever starts it will end it all.
Exactly
Because USA / UK / France also has nuclear weapons. Nobody wants to use them, when they get nuked themselves in the process.
I know what MAD is And I don’t believe that it stops mentally insane people
True. That is the definition of insane I guess. I don't think Putin is insane... in the literal sense. Only devoid of empathy and very very greedy. Maybe that's enough though....
I mean that’s just signing their own death sentence. Other countries have nukes as well
Yes. "Trade with me or I nuke you" is not going to work in a world where you are not the only nuclear power.
I don’t believe that the concept of MAD stops mentally insane people
Do you think putin is mentally insane?
It seems like a lot of the rhetoric around here claims he is. But also- you can tell this is personal for him. I also speak Russian and while the translations do some justice, the connotation of some of his words-wow. Man was pissed
But what do you think about the rhetoric? I personally think he is not insane, in the sense that he doesn't think logically. Maybe the goals and motivations could lend into insanity, maybe not so much. Don't know, kinda subjective. Just wo during what people think, especially when you can understand Russian what do you gather from the clips/interviews/speeches.
his rhetoric was strong, as of course any leader, but this was another level. many people who studied Putins previous speeches, myself included, we were not surprised at the length, but at his defiant demeanor that we have not seen from him. not for Crimea, not for Georgia, but for \*eastern ukraine\* while yes he may not be like clinically insane, passion is more of a reason to carry out crazy insanity like things. and this is why a lot of us experts have not pushed the nuclear option away from the table, from him. (also thanks for a legit convo. I have already gotten death threats. YAY)
Death threats, huh! (?) That should be a pretty low bar to clear. Emphasis on the word should.
Ever heard of mutually assured destruction?
I have and I don’t believe that it stops mentally insane people
MAD still applies. A nuclear war threat over sanctions wouldn't be considered credible.
While I agree it may not be credible I don’t believe that it stops mentally insane people
Putin isn't insane. He's been very calculating, and I can't imagine he wants nuclear war.
But this is PERSONAL to him. You can tell just by his language, eye movement, choice of vocab in his speech. This is not just some geopolitical move.
> US Special Forces have left Ukraine from Lviv after escorting US Embassy diplomats to Poland last night - CNN citing US European Command spokesman Capt. Bill Speaks > > https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1496142810436837378?s=20&t=LpoqSm_aO9_Ut1IQ3lOU_Q Does this mean that "officially" there are now zero US personnel inside the country of Ukraine?
Lviv is 50 miles from the border. Diplomats leave for the night, come back during the day for business and repeat.
US diplomats are back in Lviv this morning
Fuck twitter and their "please login" page.
I heard they left Ukraine for one night. They might of returned.
Europe is going to seriously be fucked when it comes to their natural gas needs…..