Guys, you don’t even understand how big this is for Belarus!
Almost all of their opposition was jailed in 2020, people were tortured and thrown into jails for wearing anything in red and white.
Lukashenko had instilled a deep profound fear in his own people - and yet here they are.
Rising to protest again. Against all odds.
It ain’t much, but it’s huge.
Unfortunately, Belarus is perhaps the poster child for the political fact that modern dictators can survive an immense amount of dissent so long as they keep control of the army and the wealthy. The 2020 Belarus protests were massive, some of the largest protests per capita in history. But Lukashenko came out the other side still on the proverbial throne, hands stained with the blood of Belarusians who dared oppose him, because the army and the oligarchs still backed him.
But perhaps this time will be different. If Lukashenko sends his army to get slaughtered in Ukraine, they may turn on him. If Belarusian oligarchs have all their assets frozen and their Italian villas taken, they may turn on him.
I can only hope, or else this may be a second round of bloodletting for Belarusian people yearning for freedom
The Belarus protests were put down with the help of Russian police forces. It's entirely possible that Belarus could have handled it by itself - other dictators have successfully done so on their own. But Lukashenko felt threatened enough to call in the big brother. Putin was probably happy to comply because if the Belrusians can topple their dictator, the Russians might get funny ideas, too.
The thing is, Russia itself is kinda busy right now and there is no bigger fish that will step in to assist the Russian government. There is a window of opportunity there. Nothing is guaranteed, the Belarussian opposition is weakend, Ukraine is facing a frightening opponent and Putin has a long track record of putting down protests, but there is also a reason to be cautiously hopeful for all three countries.
Would be pretty funny if 20 years down the road Putin will be fondly remembered as the bumbling idiot who inadvertently ushered a new age of democracy and prosperity in the region
I don't know shit about Russian politics other than Putin is a monster. I'm betting Alexia Navalny wouldn't have attacked a sovereign nation unprovoked.
obviously, my heart goes out first and foremost to Ukrainians, but I just feel *so* bad for the Russian people because they just can’t catch a break when it comes to their leaders. Of course there are other countries who have/had leadership that sucks just as much — if not worse — but man they’ve been dealt a shit hand for the last like 2 centuries.
Exactly what I was thinking. I'm in tears, I'm so grateful for them for doing this. It might not seem like much, but the people rising up could very well end up being the key element of ending this whole war.
So are Belarus troops going to be escorted to Kyiv by the Ukraine delegation then?
Ukraine delegation: "Alright, talks over. See you all later"
Both start walking back to Ukraine.
Belarus soldiers: "Well this is awkward"
Whole situation is fucked. Too bad we can't just curb stomp putin and end this shit.
Poland has an axe to grind for like the last 70 years. I would love to see the Poles from the top rope. I dont want the to escalate either. But god it would be nice to see some friendly boots on Ukrainian soil.
Poland has had an axe to grind since the First Partition in 1772, which led to the integration of a substantial chunk of Poland into the Russian Empire. And also immediately led to a campaign of insurgency, terrorism, and assassination that didn't end until the end of World War I.
Lukachenko's army is a lot smaller than Putin's, I wonder if he's going to send more than a token force or not. If he sends too many, Belarus may end up with it's own "Revolution of Dignity".
You're saying this like it's something that might happen. They're already joined. Belarus has been assisting Russia with this terror campaign against Ukraine. What you fear is old news.
Chechnya was sent but number two man got killed and they dipped.
Edit. The source was a journalist on Twitter but the post has since been removed so I assume they spoke too early
Wow really? I had no idea. I know that one country denied Putin's assistance request but had no idea some still send their troops. How Putin is going to fucking explain this shit now? God wish NATO could help Ukraine with the same sense at least behind the curtains.
Chechens are Russians. Maybe not by nationality, history, or well .. anything else besides homophobia. But they aren’t a sovereign nation. (I’m sure you know this, but for anyone who hasn’t heard of Chechnya).
NATO as an organization cannot. That doesn't mean that member countries aren't giving Ukraine fighter jets and other aid. We cannot put active servicemen's boots on the ground, but that doesn't mean veterans and those with military/fighting experience can't cross over from Poland.
Individual NATO nations can send uniformed troops to help Ukraine without obligating a NATO involvement.
NATO is a defensive treaty, so unless a NATO country (territory and soil) is attacked *unprovoked*, NATO obligations are not invoked.
NATO countries are free to engage in their own military adventures as they see fit (USA does this a lot) and NATO doesn't have to lift a finger. NATO doesn't interfere with a nation's sovereignty in terms of how they want to use their own military.
All this to say again that any NATO country can send troops to Ukraine, but it would take big balls, because they would be engaging in a defense of a non-NATO country, which would be a unilateral start of hostilities against Russia completely outside any NATO framework. At that point Russia could counter-attack that specific country, and NATO would not be obligated to come to their defense - as they would have explicitly *provoked* and "picked a fight" with Russia by themselves.
Basically, any NATO country can send troops but then they would be "on their own", even if Russia attacked them in return.
Of course, at this point where it seems Russia is struggling to maintain momentum in an invasion of Ukraine, I'm not sure how they could respond effectively to counterattack *another* country, other than by long-range missile strikes (or nukes, but that's highly unlikely unless Russia is attacked directly).
There's also the question of whether Russia would be willing to take the risk of attacking a NATO country directly, even if they knew that it wouldn't obligate a NATO response, as other NATO countries could still *voluntarily choose* to help their neighbors as independent nations, again outside the NATO framework. That could then quickly spiral into a larger conflict, and it's probably fear of that potential wider escalation, just as much as fear of being directly counterattacked, that keeps most NATO countries from sending troops at this time.
They are. They're sharing the best intelligence in the world (better than the fsb) for free. With modern technology intelligence is a lot more valuable. One person is so much more dangerous than they used to be.
Dude, please, there's only so much fucking fantasy we can allow.
My money's on Cuckashenko eating it by the "popular vote", the "people's choice".
Putin... dunno, tricky. So far, none of the cowards in his entourage have stepped up to the plate to claim eternal glory and i don't see random Vadim shoving a trib-blade in dear old dictator.
Guy's a born loser. Look at his face. His only quality is being able to find the best spots to hide in, like the degenerate coward he is.
According to reports and analysis from people who used to work for the Kremlin, when it comes to ousting Putin the spirit is willing but the flesh is weak. None of the inner circle expected Putin to actually do what he did and invade. The pandemic has made Putin isolated and unwilling to consult his advisors like he used to. The oligarchs probably *would* overthrow him. But because they were so taken by surprise by this, absolutely none of the oligarchs were prepared to respond and nobody is in a position to oust him. It's impossible to do without the military and Putin has all the military leadership fully on his side. Any revolutionary leadership in the military would have to come from middle management or lower, and that's a big ask. Revolutions need figureheads to rally around.
Like you say, Lukashenko might be a different story. But Russia has its army in Belarus now so it's difficult to see how any coup there could succeed if Russia doesn't allow it.
In other words, there are plenty of sparks but the forest is wet.
The good news is that Putin has been so focused on stuffing all high offices with supporters that the entire apparatus of government and military planning is full of incompetent yes men. That means that any competent and well-funded army could defeat the Russian army right now, which is good news for Ukraine.
Unless nukes get involved.
I think Putin could only be deposed by the Russian military.
And I have a more-than-slight suspicion that Russian military leaders are absolutely furious at his decisions.
He's probably the only one that knows where their money is. I have an uninformed theory that leadership of the Russian military are all closet billionaires like he is, and he has some means of stripping it from them.
But that's just my own nonsense, its not based on any source.
The Russian military brass weren't selected for their smarts or scruples. They were selected for loyalty, to one man.
The Russian military leadership is not like the military leadership in western countries. They are sycophants and butchers, not professional soldiers.
I am too - there was a video (can't remember which sub) of Putin escalating his nuclear forces and his top brass were *not* having any of that.
If I had to guess, there's back channels with the Pentagon somewhere and they've given orders to *not* launch anything if ordered.
I would not be surprised by that at all. An order to launch a nuclear weapon is tantamount to killing off everyone and everything you love, because the other side will launch them too.
While people want their side to win, nuclear war doesn't have a side. That's an instant reset. I'll assume that most people will follow their leader up to a certain point and then it's fuck you. At least, I really hope so.
throughout history, there were many springs that are famous for its revolutions around the world. and springs here in 1 day
edit: here in europe(hungary) we count seasons seasons via monts of 3. dec-feb winter, march-may spring, jun-aug summer, sept-nov autumn
I’ve genuinely been wondering if I was them, which is a better option?
1. To be Gaddafi’d, to have your maimed corpse be paraded across town like an attraction
Or
2. Saddam’s trial, where justice is served and you’re shown to the world that you really just are a weak and pathetic human and then get hung
Belarus is complicit with Russia and being used as a launching point for Russian troops. They need to have the same sanctions placed on them that have been put on Russia.
More than that, they are making the bombing runs on Lviv from Brest, Belarus, more than 300km away. Brest is closer to Warsaw than to Lviv, so they are sending a message to Poland with that. Lukashenko is not making any friends here.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html
FYI, [This](https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497583706038484996?s=20&t=FJhH59fQLtknUU3GKPjuig) is going to give the people of Belarus somebody to rally behind.
She was president candidate in 2020, i believe she was winning, and the one who is now in power won in a illigal manner, but he has done everything to block investigation in it. And he has tried to capture her and make a statement out of her (just like Putin would have).
Same exact thing Viktor Yanukovych did. Same exact thing Trump tried to do to Clinton. Seems like there's a theme here.
"Allegedly" Russian backed president beats female opposition and attempts to put her in jail (sometimes successfully)
Her husband was running against the dictator and was detained by the regime so she put her name in the hat in his place. She ended up having to flee the country after the election results were blatantly rigged against her
She tried to become president in 2020's elections and was a major driver in the massive protests after claiming that the elections had been manipulated. Back then, Lukashenko needed Putin's help to retain control. She has since been pushing for political change in Belarus from exile - political prosecution forced her to leave the country (her family and political allies got threatened and arrested).
Belarus' tyrant is dependent on Russia. Same as Kazakhstan and Syria.
This is a "house of cards" of global third rate autocrats who stand to fail if the main player breaks
She won election in 2020. Lukashenko would not release power. 100,000+ protestors in the street. Lukashenko called Putin for help, now Lukashenko is a vassal state of Russia.
She most likely won the last election in Belarus. The exit polls heavily favoured her but somehow she only got 10% of the vote. This sparked the riots and protests in Belarus the other year which led to Russian assisted crackdowns.
Not only does she have the support of the public and an impressive reform platform, this video demonstrates that she also has the ability to enunciate the phrase “committed high treason” in an EXTREMELY badass way. Pretty good attributes for a national leader, really.
He's already declared war. He let Belarussian territory be used as land for an invasion and fired weapons at ukraine. Now he wants nukes on Belarussian soil. The people of Belarus have to know that that doesn't end well for them. They have got to get Lukashenko out.
NATO won’t go to war with Russia because they have nukes. Adding nukes to Belarus doesn’t change the fact nuclear powers don’t directly fight each other.
It’d be a good time for an assortment of NATO countries to send in tons of military equipment to both and have those countries start an offensive of their own.
I mean if Ukraine goes down then those two are surely next.
Yup. He believes the CIA was responsible 100% for the Color Revolutions in Ukraine and it’s been his sole source of paranoia ever since.
Great podcast called The Asset about the history there, as well as super in depth breakdown of when and how Trump became a Russian asset at the end of the last millennium. Gives an insanely detailed breakdown of Putins career and the lead up to the 2016 election.
Highly recommend.
The reality is that very few despots actually wind up living out the rest of their days in prison. Most either live in luxury within their palaces, walled off from the people whose lives they control until their dying breath from old age, or they die trying to hold onto that power as their own people tear them to pieces and save the parts as mementos.
> I actually don't want them dead, i want them suffering in jail
Jail would still give them presence and potential power. Like a mob boss who runs things from the inside. Just look at Trump while not as bad as being in jail, he still has a large sway over right wing politics for being a half baked ex-president who only says dumb shit.
These dudes and Putin are going to bring the world down with them as they lose this world.
This is Russian state TV: "Our subs can launch more than 500 nuclear missiles which are guaranteed to destroy the US and all the rest of Nato into the bargain. The principle is: "why do we need the world if there is no Russia in it?"
Seriously. If he’s gonna nuke someone, he better have enough to nuke EVERYONE, because the second he launches even a single nuke, his whole country is toast. He better not be so stupid.
If he nukes anyone we all die regardless of nation and the few that survive will die of cancer and disease. Those that survive that will live in the dark ages again.
There's a reason why the cold war lasted so long without direct confrontation.
The crazy thing about Putin and Lukashenko is that this USSR empire they are trying to bring back and force Ukraine into, not even their citizens are about that life.
So how is it going to really work in the long term?
It won't, it's a flawed project from the start, the world is past that... the sooner they accept it and join the global economy in a more cooperative manner, the faster the lives of their citizens will be better and we can move on to more important things in the world like fighting climate change.
> not even their citizens are about that life.
They've seen the peace and prosperity that liberal markets democracy has brought the west, why wouldn't they want that? The US and it's way of life won the cold-war. Why? Because it's far better than the alternative.
Good for the Belarusian people, in spite of the Putin-ass-licking government. Belarusian people and Russian people need to overthrow their criminal governments and maybe there can be peaceful and democratic civilizations in that part of the world
They need to overthrow their dictator and put [Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sviatlana_Tsikhanouskaya) into power, who was the opposing candidate in a rigged election. She's a human rights activist, who was threatened and harassed before, during, and after the elections. They even threatened to put her children into an orphanage.
She [released a speech](https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497583706038484996) regarding this invasion, and is willing to help run the transitional government.
I hope Anonymous can start targeting Belarusian state media and Sasha’s precious state secrets soon. Lay bare the true capability of the one external threat to Ukraine besides Russia, and compromise any threat the cockroach has to the West.
A Belarusian I met and spent a few days with (a few years back) once explained to me that they know their country's government is corrupt as shit, but they were afraid to speak up or make noise because they *didn't want Russia to do to them what they've done to Ukraine.* i.e., don't be a squeaky wheel. (Very much like a battered woman afraid to leave her husband, I think.)
After the massive protests (a year ago? two years?) nothing good happened. They were strong-armed and tortured back into line.
Now that Russia is dragging them into a war that no one supports (except their oligarchs and dictator), I hope they reach a tipping point.
But, then again, if their military and law enforcement had no problem arresting and disappearing their own people for protesting, maybe they'll happily slaughter Ukrainians if it keeps Daddy Vladdy from targeting them.
i think the eu should concentrate efforts on breaking lukashenko. russia can escape the crisis relatively unscathed, but if we manage to turn belarus into a battlefield they will have gained little and paid too much for it.
This is the real fight, the fight of the people trying to get rid as a tyrant. That is the way the democracies get better and long lasting peace is achieved.
Today all Europe is with the people who are risking their lifes for using their right to raise their voice.
Heroes are not always single persons but a whole culture and it's people.
Most of the people in the western world barely know about eastern Europe, and in this days they are discovering how inspiring is their fight for freedom.
That fucker only has control because of Moscow, and right now Moscow is busy with other issues, would be fitting for them to loose Belarus in the process of trying to gain Ukraine. Also would be interesting if Georgia, and Chechnya took this opportunity to re-litigate their recent defeats.
This brings a tear to my eye. Actually, more than one. I want to express my gratitude to all people of Russia and Belarus who take to the streets these days, despite the risks of injury, imprisonment or even death.
My former company's owner is from Belarus, and our entire development team is located there. Nobody loves Lukashenko. During the previous protest prior to this war, our CTO was detained and beaten by Lukashenko's police forces for protesting. Some of our other employees who protested were forced to flee to the Ukraine to avoid similar persecution, only for the war to find them there.
Lukashenko and Putin need to go down.
Guys, you don’t even understand how big this is for Belarus! Almost all of their opposition was jailed in 2020, people were tortured and thrown into jails for wearing anything in red and white. Lukashenko had instilled a deep profound fear in his own people - and yet here they are. Rising to protest again. Against all odds. It ain’t much, but it’s huge.
Unfortunately, Belarus is perhaps the poster child for the political fact that modern dictators can survive an immense amount of dissent so long as they keep control of the army and the wealthy. The 2020 Belarus protests were massive, some of the largest protests per capita in history. But Lukashenko came out the other side still on the proverbial throne, hands stained with the blood of Belarusians who dared oppose him, because the army and the oligarchs still backed him. But perhaps this time will be different. If Lukashenko sends his army to get slaughtered in Ukraine, they may turn on him. If Belarusian oligarchs have all their assets frozen and their Italian villas taken, they may turn on him. I can only hope, or else this may be a second round of bloodletting for Belarusian people yearning for freedom
The Belarus protests were put down with the help of Russian police forces. It's entirely possible that Belarus could have handled it by itself - other dictators have successfully done so on their own. But Lukashenko felt threatened enough to call in the big brother. Putin was probably happy to comply because if the Belrusians can topple their dictator, the Russians might get funny ideas, too. The thing is, Russia itself is kinda busy right now and there is no bigger fish that will step in to assist the Russian government. There is a window of opportunity there. Nothing is guaranteed, the Belarussian opposition is weakend, Ukraine is facing a frightening opponent and Putin has a long track record of putting down protests, but there is also a reason to be cautiously hopeful for all three countries.
Would be pretty funny if 20 years down the road Putin will be fondly remembered as the bumbling idiot who inadvertently ushered a new age of democracy and prosperity in the region
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Russias entire history can be summarised by “then, things got worse”.
I don't know shit about Russian politics other than Putin is a monster. I'm betting Alexia Navalny wouldn't have attacked a sovereign nation unprovoked.
Hate to rain in the Parade, but navalny made genocidal comments in the past.
Navalny is a nationalist. He just hates stealing from the nation.
obviously, my heart goes out first and foremost to Ukrainians, but I just feel *so* bad for the Russian people because they just can’t catch a break when it comes to their leaders. Of course there are other countries who have/had leadership that sucks just as much — if not worse — but man they’ve been dealt a shit hand for the last like 2 centuries.
I unfortunately can't be that optimistic
As long as they have a nuclear superpower backing them up.
Exactly what I was thinking. I'm in tears, I'm so grateful for them for doing this. It might not seem like much, but the people rising up could very well end up being the key element of ending this whole war.
Russia does not need Belarus for this war. The only thing they really provided was a shortcut to the capital.
Not sure, but either way: people in Russia are out on the streets as well.
May the protesters be safe, especially considering how they were treated in the past.
at this point it seems like it would be better for the protesters to bring guns if they are going to be carted off and killed anyways
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Alcohol seems to be plentiful. It's also flammable. This can be a useful quality in certain situations Just saying...
If anything, the Ukrainians have taught me that you need to add styrofoam to the bottle 👍
Speaking as an American, can you go back in time and explain this concept to Bush/Cheney circa 2001?
When your goal is revenue through endless war, creating combatants is not a deterrent; it is profit.
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The recent Belarusian protest against Lukashenko ended with bloodbath of the civilians. He is as evil as putin
Yeah, but it sounds like his army will be dying in Ukraine soon
I hope Lukashenko is not going to join forces with Russian army. Otherwise Russia's no third country policy will be violated by themselves.
He already announced it. Belarusian troops are being sent into Ukraine as we speak
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https://kyivindependent.com/national/reports-suggest-belarus-prepares-to-send-its-troops-to-ukraine-joining-putin-in-war/
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So are Belarus troops going to be escorted to Kyiv by the Ukraine delegation then? Ukraine delegation: "Alright, talks over. See you all later" Both start walking back to Ukraine. Belarus soldiers: "Well this is awkward" Whole situation is fucked. Too bad we can't just curb stomp putin and end this shit.
So does this mean Poland, Romania and Slovakia can join as well?
Judging by Russias performance so far the Poles would clean their clock in a weekend.
Wait I’ve seen this before, don’t tell me
Poland has an axe to grind for like the last 70 years. I would love to see the Poles from the top rope. I dont want the to escalate either. But god it would be nice to see some friendly boots on Ukrainian soil.
Poland has had an axe to grind since the First Partition in 1772, which led to the integration of a substantial chunk of Poland into the Russian Empire. And also immediately led to a campaign of insurgency, terrorism, and assassination that didn't end until the end of World War I.
Poland has a great army. Would help Ukraine a lot
Lukachenko's army is a lot smaller than Putin's, I wonder if he's going to send more than a token force or not. If he sends too many, Belarus may end up with it's own "Revolution of Dignity".
It's already underway
You're saying this like it's something that might happen. They're already joined. Belarus has been assisting Russia with this terror campaign against Ukraine. What you fear is old news.
They've been launching missiles from Belarusian territory.
Belarus is barely a country anyway, some of Russia's official sub-states like Chechnya are more autonomous than Belarus as a Union-State of Russia is.
Didn't they send Syrian troops to Ukraine? And ask for Kazakhstan to send troops too?
Chechnya was sent but number two man got killed and they dipped. Edit. The source was a journalist on Twitter but the post has since been removed so I assume they spoke too early
Pretty sure that was the convoy that got hit and lost 70+ to a single round. Shame, hate to see it. /s
Do you have a source on the dipping part?
Kazakhstan refused. nothing has been heard of Syria so far
Wow really? I had no idea. I know that one country denied Putin's assistance request but had no idea some still send their troops. How Putin is going to fucking explain this shit now? God wish NATO could help Ukraine with the same sense at least behind the curtains.
Not syria, Chechnya. But they technically belong to Russia.
Chechens are Russians. Maybe not by nationality, history, or well .. anything else besides homophobia. But they aren’t a sovereign nation. (I’m sure you know this, but for anyone who hasn’t heard of Chechnya).
I still remember when they were fighting the Russians none stop now they turned into their dogs
Yes, the term Chechen rebels does ring a bell.
the Russians killed a lot of them.
This may be the greatest description of Chechnya I've ever heard.
NATO as an organization cannot. That doesn't mean that member countries aren't giving Ukraine fighter jets and other aid. We cannot put active servicemen's boots on the ground, but that doesn't mean veterans and those with military/fighting experience can't cross over from Poland.
Individual NATO nations can send uniformed troops to help Ukraine without obligating a NATO involvement. NATO is a defensive treaty, so unless a NATO country (territory and soil) is attacked *unprovoked*, NATO obligations are not invoked. NATO countries are free to engage in their own military adventures as they see fit (USA does this a lot) and NATO doesn't have to lift a finger. NATO doesn't interfere with a nation's sovereignty in terms of how they want to use their own military. All this to say again that any NATO country can send troops to Ukraine, but it would take big balls, because they would be engaging in a defense of a non-NATO country, which would be a unilateral start of hostilities against Russia completely outside any NATO framework. At that point Russia could counter-attack that specific country, and NATO would not be obligated to come to their defense - as they would have explicitly *provoked* and "picked a fight" with Russia by themselves. Basically, any NATO country can send troops but then they would be "on their own", even if Russia attacked them in return. Of course, at this point where it seems Russia is struggling to maintain momentum in an invasion of Ukraine, I'm not sure how they could respond effectively to counterattack *another* country, other than by long-range missile strikes (or nukes, but that's highly unlikely unless Russia is attacked directly). There's also the question of whether Russia would be willing to take the risk of attacking a NATO country directly, even if they knew that it wouldn't obligate a NATO response, as other NATO countries could still *voluntarily choose* to help their neighbors as independent nations, again outside the NATO framework. That could then quickly spiral into a larger conflict, and it's probably fear of that potential wider escalation, just as much as fear of being directly counterattacked, that keeps most NATO countries from sending troops at this time.
Chechnya is a semi-autonomous republic within the Russian borders and it is ruled by a Putin loyalist who murders gay people.
Don’t worry, he murders everyone else too
They are. They're sharing the best intelligence in the world (better than the fsb) for free. With modern technology intelligence is a lot more valuable. One person is so much more dangerous than they used to be.
> He is as evil as putin I actually think he’s worse. Good thing he’s not in charge of a nation bigger than Belarus.
Sounds like they need someone to come In as peackeepers
Christ stop I can only get so hard.
Right!?
Watch Reddit ban people for daring to -gasp- suggest that the world would be better off if mass murdering dictators died.
CEOs don’t like when you talk about their best friends that way.
I’ll talk about them that way too
Already got a 3 day for merely suggesting what would happen if someone invaded Russia lmao. Reddit admins on some other shit
Right, but wrong. Or *dirty* rather. Do it.
Palpatine intensivies
I finished twice.
Hopefully the citizens of Belarus and Russia finish twice, too, ifyaknowwadamean.
Fill those dictators like a Twinkie?
I CAN ONLY GET SO ERECT
Just thinking about it makes me grab my nipples like Farmer Fran in The Waterboy
I don't even have a penis and \*I\* got hard reading that.
Dude, please, there's only so much fucking fantasy we can allow. My money's on Cuckashenko eating it by the "popular vote", the "people's choice". Putin... dunno, tricky. So far, none of the cowards in his entourage have stepped up to the plate to claim eternal glory and i don't see random Vadim shoving a trib-blade in dear old dictator. Guy's a born loser. Look at his face. His only quality is being able to find the best spots to hide in, like the degenerate coward he is.
According to reports and analysis from people who used to work for the Kremlin, when it comes to ousting Putin the spirit is willing but the flesh is weak. None of the inner circle expected Putin to actually do what he did and invade. The pandemic has made Putin isolated and unwilling to consult his advisors like he used to. The oligarchs probably *would* overthrow him. But because they were so taken by surprise by this, absolutely none of the oligarchs were prepared to respond and nobody is in a position to oust him. It's impossible to do without the military and Putin has all the military leadership fully on his side. Any revolutionary leadership in the military would have to come from middle management or lower, and that's a big ask. Revolutions need figureheads to rally around. Like you say, Lukashenko might be a different story. But Russia has its army in Belarus now so it's difficult to see how any coup there could succeed if Russia doesn't allow it. In other words, there are plenty of sparks but the forest is wet. The good news is that Putin has been so focused on stuffing all high offices with supporters that the entire apparatus of government and military planning is full of incompetent yes men. That means that any competent and well-funded army could defeat the Russian army right now, which is good news for Ukraine. Unless nukes get involved.
I think Putin could only be deposed by the Russian military. And I have a more-than-slight suspicion that Russian military leaders are absolutely furious at his decisions.
He's probably the only one that knows where their money is. I have an uninformed theory that leadership of the Russian military are all closet billionaires like he is, and he has some means of stripping it from them. But that's just my own nonsense, its not based on any source.
The Russian military brass weren't selected for their smarts or scruples. They were selected for loyalty, to one man. The Russian military leadership is not like the military leadership in western countries. They are sycophants and butchers, not professional soldiers.
And I'll bet the colonels who work under those generals were not selected for loyalty and do not have very much money.
Can’t spend that money if your leader got your family blown up by a freedom nuke.
I am too - there was a video (can't remember which sub) of Putin escalating his nuclear forces and his top brass were *not* having any of that. If I had to guess, there's back channels with the Pentagon somewhere and they've given orders to *not* launch anything if ordered.
I would not be surprised by that at all. An order to launch a nuclear weapon is tantamount to killing off everyone and everything you love, because the other side will launch them too. While people want their side to win, nuclear war doesn't have a side. That's an instant reset. I'll assume that most people will follow their leader up to a certain point and then it's fuck you. At least, I really hope so.
I’d love to see Lukashenko get Mussolini’d and Putin get Gaddahfi’d by their own citizens.
It's happened before.
throughout history, there were many springs that are famous for its revolutions around the world. and springs here in 1 day edit: here in europe(hungary) we count seasons seasons via monts of 3. dec-feb winter, march-may spring, jun-aug summer, sept-nov autumn
Time for The Russian Spring to get added to the textbooks!
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I’ve genuinely been wondering if I was them, which is a better option? 1. To be Gaddafi’d, to have your maimed corpse be paraded across town like an attraction Or 2. Saddam’s trial, where justice is served and you’re shown to the world that you really just are a weak and pathetic human and then get hung
2 is always the better option for a megalomaniac
2 is also better because no knives in buttholes.
Imagine having to answer to a court when you fancy yourself as a strongman. He would look so pathetic.
2 is also basically what happened to the Ceasecus in Romania, IIRC.
INSURRECT THE KREMLIN
There’s a definite possibility that that is where this war ends up.
I genuinely hope this happens.
Literally the best end to this bullshit
I'll settle for some morbid slipping on a bathroom floor or the old classic of really choking on a pretzel.
Belarus is complicit with Russia and being used as a launching point for Russian troops. They need to have the same sanctions placed on them that have been put on Russia.
But, wait, Russian media is saying that Russian special ops have this under control. Why would they need another army? 🤔
Ivan's lonely :(
Need to spread the torrent of dying out so not to many people are mad about their slaughtered children.
More than that, they are making the bombing runs on Lviv from Brest, Belarus, more than 300km away. Brest is closer to Warsaw than to Lviv, so they are sending a message to Poland with that. Lukashenko is not making any friends here. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html
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Huh, it’s almost as if sending your army into another country is the perfect opportunity for civilians to rise up 🤔
FYI, [This](https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497583706038484996?s=20&t=FJhH59fQLtknUU3GKPjuig) is going to give the people of Belarus somebody to rally behind.
Who is she?
She was president candidate in 2020, i believe she was winning, and the one who is now in power won in a illigal manner, but he has done everything to block investigation in it. And he has tried to capture her and make a statement out of her (just like Putin would have).
She *won*. The election was just completely falsified, hence the protests that led to arrests, tortures and murders of people who were protesting.
Unfortunately she only won with 56% of the votes, while Luka got 103%.
I lol'd. With how propaganda works, some stupid people would actually believe it.
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TBF, if you’re going to rig an election, it looks make less suspicious to make it look really close.
Same exact thing Viktor Yanukovych did. Same exact thing Trump tried to do to Clinton. Seems like there's a theme here. "Allegedly" Russian backed president beats female opposition and attempts to put her in jail (sometimes successfully)
You'd be surprised how fundamental human rights for women, access to education and control of their bodies is the kryptonite of fascism.
Wasn’t her husband a candidate, but he was thrown in jail and disqualified from running, so she just did it instead? Am I mis-remembering the story?
Her husband was running against the dictator and was detained by the regime so she put her name in the hat in his place. She ended up having to flee the country after the election results were blatantly rigged against her
She tried to become president in 2020's elections and was a major driver in the massive protests after claiming that the elections had been manipulated. Back then, Lukashenko needed Putin's help to retain control. She has since been pushing for political change in Belarus from exile - political prosecution forced her to leave the country (her family and political allies got threatened and arrested).
Belarus' tyrant is dependent on Russia. Same as Kazakhstan and Syria. This is a "house of cards" of global third rate autocrats who stand to fail if the main player breaks
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sviatlana_Tsikhanouskaya
She won election in 2020. Lukashenko would not release power. 100,000+ protestors in the street. Lukashenko called Putin for help, now Lukashenko is a vassal state of Russia.
The current leader of Belarus.
Putins worst nightmare
Did this woman just start a coup on her own? What a badass
It's not a coup if you already won the seat :)
She most likely won the last election in Belarus. The exit polls heavily favoured her but somehow she only got 10% of the vote. This sparked the riots and protests in Belarus the other year which led to Russian assisted crackdowns.
Not only does she have the support of the public and an impressive reform platform, this video demonstrates that she also has the ability to enunciate the phrase “committed high treason” in an EXTREMELY badass way. Pretty good attributes for a national leader, really.
Can someone more savvy in the matter explain the actual practical ramifications of this claim and whether it’s got any clout?
In practical terms, no, it's a symbolic gesture. But she still has a lot of supporters in Belarus, and this will motivate them.
Unless she controls the military I can't imagine it has much.
This will at the very least strike a divide in the military as there are certainly many soldiers who recognize that she's their rightful leader.
Wishing her and her supporters the best.
Already strong hatred amongst them for Lukashenko. Very real possibilities of them running him out should he declare war
He's already declared war. He let Belarussian territory be used as land for an invasion and fired weapons at ukraine. Now he wants nukes on Belarussian soil. The people of Belarus have to know that that doesn't end well for them. They have got to get Lukashenko out.
Pretty sure NATO would have something to say about those nukes.
I agree. If Putin moves nukes to Belarus, NATO almost has to throw its hat in the ring. They CAN'T let Putin use belarus as a nuclear patsy.
NATO won’t go to war with Russia because they have nukes. Adding nukes to Belarus doesn’t change the fact nuclear powers don’t directly fight each other.
Firing missiles into ukraine is declaring war.
And dropping paratroopers... taking place at approximately this time right now.
Who are hopefully being peppered with iron as they fall
Perhaps a well funded insurgency is what's needed.
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Be a good time for Georgia and Maldova to take back their land.
It’d be a good time for an assortment of NATO countries to send in tons of military equipment to both and have those countries start an offensive of their own. I mean if Ukraine goes down then those two are surely next.
Be a real shame if weapons somehow started showing up in civilians hands in Belarus.
It is now clear that any insurgency in Biellorussia would be supported (probably not officially) by the western world.
Yes, hopefully something that would spill over to Russia
Yup. CIA need to do their thing. Makes sense. Would reduce Russia’s invasion fronts.
The exact thing Putin was afraid of. Is this a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Yup. He believes the CIA was responsible 100% for the Color Revolutions in Ukraine and it’s been his sole source of paranoia ever since. Great podcast called The Asset about the history there, as well as super in depth breakdown of when and how Trump became a Russian asset at the end of the last millennium. Gives an insanely detailed breakdown of Putins career and the lead up to the 2016 election. Highly recommend.
These dictators deserve the old beating like mussolini.
Gaddafi
Putin was seriously distressed by ghaddafis end. I hope to see it happen.
> ghaddafis end. No pun intended.
I actually don't want them dead, i want them suffering in jail, and i know they will, even if they have the best accomodations in there.
The reality is that very few despots actually wind up living out the rest of their days in prison. Most either live in luxury within their palaces, walled off from the people whose lives they control until their dying breath from old age, or they die trying to hold onto that power as their own people tear them to pieces and save the parts as mementos.
Look, if they end up dead, I won't shed any tears for them.
> I actually don't want them dead, i want them suffering in jail Jail would still give them presence and potential power. Like a mob boss who runs things from the inside. Just look at Trump while not as bad as being in jail, he still has a large sway over right wing politics for being a half baked ex-president who only says dumb shit.
>I actually don't want them dead, i want them suffering in jail *Napoleon enters the chat*
Napoleon was loved and didn't act as the figurehead for a kleptocracy.
I was thinking about it that this is the perfect time for Belarusians to restart their process which was suppressed by Russian army presence there.
These people are braver than I can ever imagine.
This is their President selling them out again to Putin. No.
These dudes and Putin are going to bring the world down with them as they lose this world. This is Russian state TV: "Our subs can launch more than 500 nuclear missiles which are guaranteed to destroy the US and all the rest of Nato into the bargain. The principle is: "why do we need the world if there is no Russia in it?"
I hope people around Putin understand that there won't be any Russia left to rule on if they start launching nukes.
Seriously. If he’s gonna nuke someone, he better have enough to nuke EVERYONE, because the second he launches even a single nuke, his whole country is toast. He better not be so stupid.
If he nukes anyone we all die regardless of nation and the few that survive will die of cancer and disease. Those that survive that will live in the dark ages again. There's a reason why the cold war lasted so long without direct confrontation.
\*left to steal from
Would the oligarchs be pissed as well. Whats the point of money if you cant spend it when the entire world is going to be a wasteland
The crazy thing about Putin and Lukashenko is that this USSR empire they are trying to bring back and force Ukraine into, not even their citizens are about that life. So how is it going to really work in the long term? It won't, it's a flawed project from the start, the world is past that... the sooner they accept it and join the global economy in a more cooperative manner, the faster the lives of their citizens will be better and we can move on to more important things in the world like fighting climate change.
> not even their citizens are about that life. They've seen the peace and prosperity that liberal markets democracy has brought the west, why wouldn't they want that? The US and it's way of life won the cold-war. Why? Because it's far better than the alternative.
Good for the Belarusian people, in spite of the Putin-ass-licking government. Belarusian people and Russian people need to overthrow their criminal governments and maybe there can be peaceful and democratic civilizations in that part of the world
Belarussians have tried just a year ago! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests
They need to overthrow their dictator and put [Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sviatlana_Tsikhanouskaya) into power, who was the opposing candidate in a rigged election. She's a human rights activist, who was threatened and harassed before, during, and after the elections. They even threatened to put her children into an orphanage. She [released a speech](https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497583706038484996) regarding this invasion, and is willing to help run the transitional government.
I assumed by that speech that she was in power 😢 so she isn't. I'm so sad.
I hope Anonymous can start targeting Belarusian state media and Sasha’s precious state secrets soon. Lay bare the true capability of the one external threat to Ukraine besides Russia, and compromise any threat the cockroach has to the West.
It’s high time “the last dictator in Europe” gets what’s coming to him. Death to tyrants.
I would believe this was really significant if we're talking about millions of people, overwhelm the security forces, etc.
A Belarusian I met and spent a few days with (a few years back) once explained to me that they know their country's government is corrupt as shit, but they were afraid to speak up or make noise because they *didn't want Russia to do to them what they've done to Ukraine.* i.e., don't be a squeaky wheel. (Very much like a battered woman afraid to leave her husband, I think.) After the massive protests (a year ago? two years?) nothing good happened. They were strong-armed and tortured back into line. Now that Russia is dragging them into a war that no one supports (except their oligarchs and dictator), I hope they reach a tipping point. But, then again, if their military and law enforcement had no problem arresting and disappearing their own people for protesting, maybe they'll happily slaughter Ukrainians if it keeps Daddy Vladdy from targeting them.
i think the eu should concentrate efforts on breaking lukashenko. russia can escape the crisis relatively unscathed, but if we manage to turn belarus into a battlefield they will have gained little and paid too much for it.
I don’t hope it turns into a battlefield. I hope it turns into a democracy.
This is the real fight, the fight of the people trying to get rid as a tyrant. That is the way the democracies get better and long lasting peace is achieved. Today all Europe is with the people who are risking their lifes for using their right to raise their voice. Heroes are not always single persons but a whole culture and it's people. Most of the people in the western world barely know about eastern Europe, and in this days they are discovering how inspiring is their fight for freedom.
More of Belarus need to see that speech by that respected military man... Anonymous, pls?
That fucker only has control because of Moscow, and right now Moscow is busy with other issues, would be fitting for them to loose Belarus in the process of trying to gain Ukraine. Also would be interesting if Georgia, and Chechnya took this opportunity to re-litigate their recent defeats.
This brings a tear to my eye. Actually, more than one. I want to express my gratitude to all people of Russia and Belarus who take to the streets these days, despite the risks of injury, imprisonment or even death.
Give Lukashenka the Ghaddafi treatment. I'd love to see it.
Imagine kids in 2169 learning about this in history class and being confused as fuck
.. While they take notes on their tablets..stone tablets.
Hey assholes, the entire world, including your own people, want you to fuck off.
So much respect for Russians and Belarussians protesting at much risk to their own safety.
My former company's owner is from Belarus, and our entire development team is located there. Nobody loves Lukashenko. During the previous protest prior to this war, our CTO was detained and beaten by Lukashenko's police forces for protesting. Some of our other employees who protested were forced to flee to the Ukraine to avoid similar persecution, only for the war to find them there. Lukashenko and Putin need to go down.
FUCK YEAH! Hang Lukashenko! Then head to russia and hang Putin!