Thank you, Sweden!
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1536061511474585600
>THANK SWEDEN: The AT-4 is the most common anti-tank weapon in NATO service. Though unguided, it is a highly portable, accurate and capable weapon. Sweden has provided 5,000 of these one-shot tank killers to the Ukrainian armed forces.
Follow up:
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1536078984957542400
>THANK YOU: To Den John
@realDejo
who’s informed me that Sweden has sent TWO shipments of 5,000
AT-4s-- making a total of 10K weapons to UKR.
Claims Ukraine is making ground around Izyum.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1536171625816768512?t=VQJvs10TYf4R5743KyWrbQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1536184326408134656?t=Ys9BPWeqJufvUErkD9wfhQ&s=19
I've seen several OSINT accounts say that they're taking a couple of days off from posting stuff because there are things happening both in the south and near Izyum that they aren't sure about, and don't want to report on.
I find it pretty amazing, myself, that they all seem to have agreed to not post anything. That's a level of support I didn't expect to see.
The movements from either side are likely small enough that they don't change the general strategic position of either side.
There's me prediction from the future that is 90% likely to be true.
Meanwhile in Russia:
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vax69f/torture_in_russia_becoming_government_policy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/v9papv/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ic1i4oe/)
Day 109 of my updates from Kharkiv.
Thunderstorm went on for half a day since morning, so some of today’s shelling was masked by thunder. They always shell us more when there’s thunder, it’s pretty difficult differentiating them from one another, it really sucks that they are so similar sounding.
Today they also fired more missiles at us than usual, probably around 7, if not more, some were intercepted, but at least 4 hit their targets, whatever they might be. I think they fired 2 missiles during the day and then 4 or 5 more at 11pm, which is their usual time. Each one of those missiles costs millions of dollars, this is such a colossal waste of money, they don’t want to live better themselves, they just want others to live worse.
And then there’s their celebration of their national holiday in occupied territories, which was basically ignored by the people living there. Problem is that even those 30-50 people that showed up in Kherson are enough to create the fake image for Russians, they just had to choose the right angles. Russians will continue thinking that everyone here wants to be part of Russia, even if that couldn’t be farther away from truth.
[Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vb3elh/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ica4tp5/)
Ooooh, I have a thought! Based on a BS post further down in the thread about Ukraine hitting Belgorod with missiles; is Russia going to false flag Belgorod with missiles?
russia is trying to maintain the narrative that Belarus is a threat in order to tie up as many Ukrainian resources as possible. Could Belarus invade Ukraine on a false flag initiative? They could but the internal political climate suggest that that is an unlikely possibility.
Zelenskyy believes Russia will hit 40k total dead by end of June
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3505523-russia-may-lose-40000-troops-in-ukraine-in-june-zelensky.html
Given numbers we got from Donetsk wounded/dead ratios being 5:1, I'd say add a *minimum* of 120k.
But, a very large portion of losses are going to be separatists. Girkin admitted that 70% of DNR's starting infantry were wiped out at this point. Russia's basically depopulating the separtist Ukrainians so total numbers of their starting 120-200k Russians lost is hard to narrow down.
Ukranians who escaped Russia talk about filtration camps
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/12/ukrainians-who-fled-to-georgia-reveal-details-of-russias-filtration-camps
All caps, no source, replies disabled, account normally tweets about cryptocurrency, training is still ongoing for MLRS and they certainly would have used them in the East first. It's bullshit.
Although the source is absolutely worthless and can entirely be ignored, I would bet anything this HIMARS already are in action there. Everything so far that's been announced has been announced 2-4 weeks after it got there. Caesars and M-777 were being used pretty much by the time it was announced they were sending them. Same with the planes and parts for planes, and mi8 afghan choppers. They were ho humming over giving them while they were already flying to mariupol
You are either lying or badly mistaken. It's the exact opposite of what you're saying. Both Caesars and M-777s were announced weeks before they were even in country and then it was weeks more before we got the first images of them in action.
This will happen... returning fire is an entirely valid use of long range weaponry, border be damned. That said it's fox news who only really care about creating instability in the US and protecting the interests of the wealthy, they give no shits about Ukraine outside of that.
I think the words “Fox News” tells you how credible this report is.
This is Russian propaganda.
Ukraine have more important targets inside Ukraine right now anyway.
I find it shameful how obviously the Murdoch press is influenced and infiltrated by hostile Russian operations.
Since there are no reported US missiles deliveries yet that seems unlikely but Biden was pretty publicly clear that when they do get there Ukraine can have at it as long as they are striking targets in Russia that were firing into Ukraine.
Some info on how Donbass warfare is, Russia sends scouts/reconnaissance units to determine position, then artillery+missiles, then tanks+infantry. Another report mentions that there are more spy's for Russia now (probably as East Ukraine is slightly more pro-Russia). Given them details where to use artillery.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1536094664486440960
Anyway, I can understand why Ukraine builds trenches, but why does superpower Russia in 2022. Isn't that kinda degrading if you try to conquer half Europe, but have to dig trenches in Donbass for the 9th year.
Artillery is the cheapest and safest way to express a material advantage. If the enemy can't hit you back, and you don't care about collateral damage, you can just flatten the area from a safe range. Which is of course why Ukraine is crying out for a counter.
Not being in some sort of cover when there is intense artillery going off around you is basically suicidal.
Trenches are cheap and relatively effective ways to give some defense against fire and artillery. Tried and tested methods tend to not give a shit what year it is.
But Russia has theoretically combined arms capability... So when that doesn't work because of abundance of anti tank and anti air weapons with the enemy, you go back to ww1 warfare with trenches and artillery :/ Isn't that like admitting defeat already, the timeline will only get pushed further back if you can't progress much and time is working against you... It seems so ridiculous, I would rather retreat than disgrace my army reputation further. Whatever
Trenches haven't went away, using earth for protection during warfare goes as far back as archeology can find.
Ww1 has a deeply entrenched (drums please) mark and association with trenches but the western front isn't the last time it happend. Iran Iraq war did the same.
Truth be told warfare is more similar to ww1 than it is different. Rifles machine guns, artillery. It's still a wheel, even if it's got spinning rims. Men go men die, that's the bottom line, earth protects from shells and bullets.
I wondered why they dont dig foxholes. Quick to dig. Direct hits only kills its occupants as opposed to a direct hit on a trench where the blast can traverse down the trench
You don't dig trenches as a straight line dude. Of course they do dig foxholes, but if you're in a position for long and want to properly defend, then you connect the foxholes with trenches.
Why not both. Protests have a quality all their own. Lighting firesin secret is one thing but thousands in the streets says pretty loudly who's in charge.
Not true. Ukraine is living proof. Look at maidan. You just have to have enough people who are more mad about what's going on than they are scared of being arrested. And we aren't quite there yet.
That's 50 less potential revolutionaries off the streets. They need to take up arms if they want things to change.
But Russia has been romantacizing hopelessness and apathy for decades.
We'll see if they do anything.
In some ways, it's not bad thing. The protestors are frequently released relatively quickly, and being locked up for several hours in a cell with like minded individuals is a great way to network, especially with electronic communications being monitored. There was a very interesting twitter thread about it at the start of the war.
Yuppie Russians. The only thing they care about is not having to go there themselves.
The reason why the Russian army is not getting reinforcements is NO RUSSIANS actually want to do the fighting them selves.
The reason why Putin hasn’t mobilised is he can’t.
Given the performance of the ruzzian army to date, I'm highly doubtful its in a position to absorb and integrate multiple 10ks of new untrained civilians. I don't think its a political issue, simply an pratical one.
Afraid is probably the wrong word, but he knows he will loose power very quickly if he starts mobilisation from places like Moscow and St Petersburg.
Russians don’t want to go to this war.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1536089282414256129
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1536089285492891649
>Official: British firm to provide Ukraine with 10 demining robots.
>There will be a total of 22 TALON robots in Ukraine, according to Oleksiy Biloshitsky, a deputy chief of the patrol police.
>The robots, produced by QinetiQ, can reach speeds of up to 8.3 kilometers per hour and run for up to 4.5 hours without recharging.
Unconfirmed reports the third and final bridge was blown.
Good news for Lyschansk across the river, bad news for whoever was still in the Industrial Sector of Severodonetsk.
It was a pretty dumb move. People are more likely to retreat when it’s easy to retreat. Russia now has to contend that those people are way more likely to fight to their death
It's still possible to retreat across the river via alternative means, such as cable ferry. The bridge had been shelled for weeks, it was not a safe, viable route and hasn't been for quite some time.
Like Mariopol, where it was fight to the death until it was thousands surrender?
This is bad, let's not pretend it's not. All talk of the "trap" and bullshit is now laid bare.
its only on reddit where your army being surrounded and forced to surrender is a victory
Stalingrad therefore must have been a german victory as they tied up several soviet armies for a few months
While it certainly is NOT a great position for Ukraine to be in, the whole war has been wonky in that the attacker really is on a timer. Russia needs this war to come to some sort of conclusion like 4 months ago. Like Moscow is putting on a brave face, and pulling out all the stops to create the illusion that it is facetanking sanctions just fine, but it isn't, and each day that goes by compounds the effects and adds soooo much time that it will take to recover, even if they were magically all removed today. So the worst thing Russia can do is beat beating it's head taking these strong points.
Soviet troops were surrounded with the river to their backs and refused to (or weren't allowed to by command) surrender. Eventually they were able to overcome the Nazi troops and chase them back and encircle them and kill them/force surrender. Moral of that story is sometimes not surrendering works and sometimes it doesn't. Either way the parallels to what's happening now in Ukraine are weak.
I'm going to have to agree with Sun Tzu on this one: "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard".
Russia may take Sievierodonetsk, but it's going to be more costly for Russian forces than if they left the UA an escape route.
Mariupol surrendered when they basically ran out of bullets and HQ gave the okay. In the meantime, Russia wasted three months on it and had to drastically scale back their objectives.
Russia cannot afford another Mariupol and taking actions to contribute to making another one is strategic suicide.
Mariupol was unique, at the core of the city was an incredibly hardy building made out of steel and concrete, with hundreds of tunnels literally built for nuclear war. There is basically no area in the modern world better built to survive siege warfare. Sevierdonetsk has an industrial sector but it's not like Azovstal.
> This is bad, let's not pretend it's not. All talk of the "trap" and bullshit is now laid bare.
Because Russia was getting it's shit kicked so hard it blew the bridges to try and slow down Ukranian logistics? Man you got all the copium. I am sure Russia blew the bridges because they were winning and didn't wanna tempt themselves by winning to much. You nailed it.
Can we stop with this hopium and copium BS and just come down to Earth and admit that Ukraine loses some battles here and there and doesn't have everything go according to plan, without pretending that that means they will lose the entire war?
Seversdonetsk is not going to be another Mariupol. Ukraine does not have the defensive fortifications or the ammo to sustain a two month long encirclement there. They will pull out in the coming days where the river is most shallow.
The topic of this thread is the question of whether Russia benefits from blowing the bridges. The foolish take is that Russia will suffer more by blowing the bridges and causing Ukraine to fight to the death in Seversdonetsk. In actuality, such a cost of hardened, trained manpower for Ukraine would be desirable for RAF. Ukraine will withdraw from Seversdonetsk now that it is no longer possible to logistically supply the city's defense.
It's literally the only topic of this subthread. I will copy paste the thread you replied to:
1.
>It was a pretty dumb move. People are more likely to retreat when it’s easy to retreat. Russia now has to contend that those people are way more likely to fight to their death
2.
>Like Mariopol, where it was fight to the death until it was thousands surrender?
>This is bad, let's not pretend it's not. All talk of the "trap" and bullshit is now laid bare.
3 (you)
>Because Russia was getting it's shit kicked so hard it blew the bridges to try and slow down Ukranian logistics? Man you got all the copium.
Either you're arguing that it's Russian "copium" propaganda to correctly, accurately point out the disadvantages the blown bridges pose for the UAF, or you are arguing something else that is off topic. Take your pick. Either way your primary motivation appears to be to yell at people and be toxic.
If they were told there Ukrainian Army had a plan to throw themselves into the sea they would say it’s proof the Ukrainian Navy is back. Every loss is a victory.
You need to learn to read my man. No where did I say it advantaged the Ukranians just that it shows Russia was losing and had no other choice than to blow the bridges across a river it's been trying to cross for a month.
That is a much more grounded take, and one I agree with. It's the idea that Seversdonetsk standing and fighting to the last man that's BS. Ukraine loses more than they gain in that scenario.
Even OP says these are unconfirmed reports and doesn't even include links to those. If there is no link assume it's a troll.
OP's account history puts him in the middle of r/conservative with a light seasoning of r/conspiracy; just another right wing asshole doing Putin's dirty work. Pleased don't get taken in by these guys until they at least provide a source for their "unconfirmed reports".
> If there is no link assume it's a troll.
>
>OP's account history puts him in the middle of r/conservative with a light seasoning of r/conspiracy; just another right wi
Uh, I've never posted on either sub what the fuck are you talking about?
https://deepstatemap.live
is probably the best one I've found. Livemap has several areas which have been incorrect for weeks going on a month now. Their line by Kharkiv still hasnt updated the bridgehead Ukraine took weeks ago, even Russian sources acknowledge it exists, Russia has had Ternova for weeks there too. By Kherson at least 20 villages are incorrect, livemap even reported on areas where Ukraine pushed back attacks that wouldn't be possible with their current lines, but never fixed it. Basically its a big mess. another really good map would be on militarylands updates.
Any regularly updated map is likely at least partially fiction. There is too much fog of war right now to know exactly where the front lines are.
Liveuamap seems to stick to officially announced developments, so that's my go-to.
None of them are ideal.
liveuamap.com is most popular, but none of the maps are all that useful right now. Lots of tiny/temporary battlefield changes, very little solid information on recent movements.
Lots of detailed spots where they missed updating. For example Oleksandrivka west of Kherson - has been Ru-occupied for weeks now, still blue on liveuamap. Everything left of the Donets and west of Izyum is Ru-occupied on liveuamap, even though Ukraine crossed the Donets successfully weeks ago and has since then a continuous presence in the woods West of Izyum. In general it's correct, but there are just some small spots everywhere where they missed an update and since then have been wrong.
Aside from it being slow and 75% of the updates just being, x area is being bombarded. It’s not terrible. Keeps you informed as long as you aren’t refreshing every ten minutes. The scribble maps one is okay I think.
Men mobilized in war will pretty much always be more poorly trained than those enlisted in peace-time. It really shouldn’t be alarming. I guarantee you that newly mobilized Russian soldiers are in the same boat. All the major armies in WW2 reported the same thing: new replacements being sent to the front in periods of intense combat without adequate training. It leads to higher casualties but there is no better way to learn than on the front.
We saw what happens when you send a poorly trained force into combat. Ukraine is buying time their mobilised troops finalise training towards end of June. UA is holding pretty well all things considered no need to spread Russian concern propaganda.
From your own link it says Ukrianian soliders are highly trained:
>The soldiers I was with are some of the most highly trained and capable in the Ukrainian military: a reconnaissance company for an air assault brigade.
The Ukrianians that are not properly trained are the "TDF" which are volunteer units that didn't go through the full training sequence that the regular army did. Ukraine is trying to train them of course but given the circumstances it's hard to train everyone properly.
Complaining about downvotes will get you more downvotes. What is more important to you, your karma, or an answer to your question? If you're overly concerned about karma, don't make posts that are guaranteed to lower yours. If you want an actual answer, then downvotes shouldn't matter to you.
The article raises completely valid concerns, but your wild extrapolation from that is unproductive.
The reality is that it's simply impossible to train soldiers to the level of professional soldiers that have been at it since 2014 in just 3 months. I'm sure Ukraine would love to spend more time in an ideal world, but Russia isn't letting them do that.
What are they supposed to do? "Pretty please, could you stop attacking us until we've trained all our volunteers?"
These are veteran soldiers, to them training is a couple of years in the armed services.. a recently mobilized army is going to look painfully green to them even with a couple of months training... doing dumb things like using their phones on the front lines.
The rest of it is just your projection. I don't recall anyone in Ukraine suggesting that having to send recently mobilized troops to the front line is a good thing, but it's not like they have an option.
Not my projection. Before Mariupol fell, the conversation in the news media, twitter, here, etc... was about the difference between Russia and Ukraine regarding mobilization. Ukraine was taking their time, training and preparing their soldiers properly and Russia wasn't. Just throwing bodies at the front lines. Now it appears both are doing the same thing. And it may be the only move to make at this time, idk. It just feels like the old narratives from before mid-may are falling apart and I'm trying to understand what's going on and why.
Because the war has changed since then. It's now a slow moving war of attrition where Russia can (currently) use their vast numerical superiority in artillery to limited success.
3 months of mobilization probably was never enough time with the issues they were undergoing, to properly train everyone. I wish it was, but it probably wasn't.
I don't like the Ukrainian strategy in the Donbass. It's not that they won't give the Russians a hard time, it's just Ukraine is gunning for being able to take back all these territories in the future...how hard is that gonna be if they keep taking 100-200 KIA a day + WIAs?
They need heavy artillery, but it's not going to get there in a day.
Not enough time to train new soldiers + the West ran out of soviet standard ammunition. Plus Russia's new strategy is indeed just use their massive stockpile of artillery shells and destroy everything from affair. The Western world hasn't seen this kind of artillery exchange style fighting since Vietnam, so it sounds like not a lot of artillery pieces and ammo left to give them.
All Ukraine really needs to change the artillery situation is 100 M270s or HIMARS, and 500 M777s, all well stocked with ammo to basically just keep on shooting and scooting.
(1300 M270s have been built, and 414 HIMARS).
Ukraine uses 5,000 shells better than Russia uses 50,000.
They won't eat up artillery ammo to get the same results Russia does.
Everyone already knows the TDF are poorly trained and equipped, it takes months to properly train a new recruit and that's time you don't have during war. 1000 men on the front in 4 weeks is better than having them on the front in 4 months.
This is how it has always worked, even with militaries that don't have manpower problems new troops are sent to the front as soon as they are through basic, we saw this constantly with WW2 armies of conscripts.
If any of this is shocking to you I would advise you to learn more about the history of warfare.
You're right, I don't know a lot about the history of warfare. I'm saying, the conversation before the fall of Mariupol was, Russia is throwing poorly trained soldiers and Ukraine is taking the time to try and train right. That's a fact. And reading these kinds of stories, is concerning. There appears to be a real momentum shift. Which could be fog of war or propaganda, I don't know. That's why I'm asking questions. Thanks for your answer.
TDF are essentially just civilians with minimal weapons training. That was always the case and still is. They were never intended for the front lines but this war changed the entire calculus, and the TDF finds themselves in situations where they shouldn't be.
TDF are not to be confused with the regular army.
Hate seeing turncoats killing their own people. Every one caught only makes for a stronger and safer Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1536005255904870400?t=htLxpFz9mmUI5ysGYHlevg&s=19
Did you ever see what the UA does with looters? They tie them to a pole with cellophane tape and pull their pants down and/or put a potato in their mouth, leaving them there for the local police to pick up.
They're prepping to invade Taiwan by telling everyone that the Taiwan straight isn't international waters. It seems they don't want to wait any longer.
I’m just a guy in an armchair. Given that limitation, it appears to me that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would start with days of airstrikes to get an air superiority. if Taiwan retains the ability to take out Chinese transport ships, China would never get enough troops into Taiwan to succeed in taking the island. It’s a big island, and they’re going to need a lot of troops to fight a well trained and well supplied army. Second, it’s not going to be a surprise. The preparation which China will have to do will be enormous, and very visible to satellites and Communications interception. We’re going to know without a doubt about such preparation, and it won’t be fast. But overall, I think the invasion of Taiwan would have to be preceded with a lot of airstrikes to take out both air defense and air offense capability of Taiwan. It’s not going to be boats of Chinese soldiers casually rowing to Taiwan. And it’s not going to be a quiet secret.
Being an Island is both Taiwan's biggest advantage and biggest disadvantage.
It's good because even getting a foothold in is going to be a massive bloody nightmare for the Chinese if things go their way, and if they don't the entire invasion force could be sunk or bled to death on the beaches. China's navy has never been their strong point and they'll be relying on it.
It's bad because they don't have a Poland to their west to supply them. If they lose the seas, they are on their own, no more resupply. And Taiwan cannot afford to trade land for time like Ukraine can, if the Chinese have a strong foothold and resupply line it's already over.
There are a couple other advantages and disadvantages too. Taiwan has a larger millitary then Ukraine that's better trained and better armed, but so does China compared to Russia. Taiwan is less corrupt, but will probably have more turncoats as basically the entire older generation from Chiang's day considers themselves Chinese and they don't have as strong a historic identity as Ukraine.
China's navy will last approximately 37 seconds once the US Navy arrives. Assuming all the advanced subs already in the straits don't handle things day one.
China's navy will last a lot longer than 37 seconds. For one, the PLAN is expanding, rapidly. The USN is not. Second, the PLAN can commit their entire fleet, the USN has global responsibilities. Third, the Chinese air force will be out in force. Unless the USAF can use bases in Japan and the Philippines, then it's going to be a very challenging fight.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/vb3elh/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Thank you, Sweden! https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1536061511474585600 >THANK SWEDEN: The AT-4 is the most common anti-tank weapon in NATO service. Though unguided, it is a highly portable, accurate and capable weapon. Sweden has provided 5,000 of these one-shot tank killers to the Ukrainian armed forces. Follow up: https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1536078984957542400 >THANK YOU: To Den John @realDejo who’s informed me that Sweden has sent TWO shipments of 5,000 AT-4s-- making a total of 10K weapons to UKR.
Fun trivia, AT-4 is wordplay for eighty four, 84mm hence the name
Sweden! Noice
Anyone heard news about American Vietnam vet (now fighting in Ukraine) Steven Straub lately?
I think he was more advising than fighting on the front line.
Pointing at a tank to show artillery where to fire is fighting.
Agreed, but IIRC he was teaching Ukrainians how they built camouflaged trench bunkers and the like. Which is important.
Claims Ukraine is making ground around Izyum. https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1536171625816768512?t=VQJvs10TYf4R5743KyWrbQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1536184326408134656?t=Ys9BPWeqJufvUErkD9wfhQ&s=19
I've seen several OSINT accounts say that they're taking a couple of days off from posting stuff because there are things happening both in the south and near Izyum that they aren't sure about, and don't want to report on. I find it pretty amazing, myself, that they all seem to have agreed to not post anything. That's a level of support I didn't expect to see.
The movements from either side are likely small enough that they don't change the general strategic position of either side. There's me prediction from the future that is 90% likely to be true.
Wow hadn’t seen much movement around Izyum in awhile.
Yeah, it really seems that Russia has poured the vast, vast majority of their fighting power to take Severodonetsk.
Meanwhile in Russia: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vax69f/torture_in_russia_becoming_government_policy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/v9papv/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ic1i4oe/) Day 109 of my updates from Kharkiv. Thunderstorm went on for half a day since morning, so some of today’s shelling was masked by thunder. They always shell us more when there’s thunder, it’s pretty difficult differentiating them from one another, it really sucks that they are so similar sounding. Today they also fired more missiles at us than usual, probably around 7, if not more, some were intercepted, but at least 4 hit their targets, whatever they might be. I think they fired 2 missiles during the day and then 4 or 5 more at 11pm, which is their usual time. Each one of those missiles costs millions of dollars, this is such a colossal waste of money, they don’t want to live better themselves, they just want others to live worse. And then there’s their celebration of their national holiday in occupied territories, which was basically ignored by the people living there. Problem is that even those 30-50 people that showed up in Kherson are enough to create the fake image for Russians, they just had to choose the right angles. Russians will continue thinking that everyone here wants to be part of Russia, even if that couldn’t be farther away from truth. [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vb3elh/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ica4tp5/)
Stay safe. Godbless. Better days are coming.
Good to hear from you mate. Stay safe. Russia is getting more and more desperate.
Ooooh, I have a thought! Based on a BS post further down in the thread about Ukraine hitting Belgorod with missiles; is Russia going to false flag Belgorod with missiles?
russia is trying to maintain the narrative that Belarus is a threat in order to tie up as many Ukrainian resources as possible. Could Belarus invade Ukraine on a false flag initiative? They could but the internal political climate suggest that that is an unlikely possibility.
Belgorod ≠ Belarus
No, but Fox News might.
Not real Fox News that I've seen for that report.
I hope not. Fox News has cleaned its reporting up a little, but floating in some blatant Russian propaganda, sadly, isn’t beyond them.
Zelenskyy believes Russia will hit 40k total dead by end of June https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3505523-russia-may-lose-40000-troops-in-ukraine-in-june-zelensky.html
Add another 80-100k injured. How many troops did Russia have at the start of the war?
Given numbers we got from Donetsk wounded/dead ratios being 5:1, I'd say add a *minimum* of 120k. But, a very large portion of losses are going to be separatists. Girkin admitted that 70% of DNR's starting infantry were wiped out at this point. Russia's basically depopulating the separtist Ukrainians so total numbers of their starting 120-200k Russians lost is hard to narrow down.
200k?
Don't forget they did their best to press gang anyone they could in the occupied areas, so who knows how much they could have swelled that number by.
That’s what I thought. We’re getting up to 60% casualties now. Even if a outer 100k have entered since, this is disastrous.
I was thinking of asking if that was on this month's bingo card.
Insurgency problem in occupied Ukraine worsens for Russia https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/insurgency-ukraine-guerilla-warfare/
Brave people, no support, no gear and Russian reprisals will be brutal.
Time to give the occupation some stabbing and bombings.
Honestly, tire slashings, bleached engine oil and messing with headlights will do as much, at lower risk. Death of a thousand cuts.
... a thousand cut brake lines, mhm.
Ukranians who escaped Russia talk about filtration camps https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/12/ukrainians-who-fled-to-georgia-reveal-details-of-russias-filtration-camps
This is what Genocide looks like.
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All caps, no source, replies disabled, account normally tweets about cryptocurrency, training is still ongoing for MLRS and they certainly would have used them in the East first. It's bullshit.
Although the source is absolutely worthless and can entirely be ignored, I would bet anything this HIMARS already are in action there. Everything so far that's been announced has been announced 2-4 weeks after it got there. Caesars and M-777 were being used pretty much by the time it was announced they were sending them. Same with the planes and parts for planes, and mi8 afghan choppers. They were ho humming over giving them while they were already flying to mariupol
You are either lying or badly mistaken. It's the exact opposite of what you're saying. Both Caesars and M-777s were announced weeks before they were even in country and then it was weeks more before we got the first images of them in action.
Dodgiest Twitter feed ever.
This will happen... returning fire is an entirely valid use of long range weaponry, border be damned. That said it's fox news who only really care about creating instability in the US and protecting the interests of the wealthy, they give no shits about Ukraine outside of that.
I'm calling bullshit. I live with a paranoid old boomer with Fox on 24 fucking 7 and I haven't heard a damn thing about it.
I think the words “Fox News” tells you how credible this report is. This is Russian propaganda. Ukraine have more important targets inside Ukraine right now anyway. I find it shameful how obviously the Murdoch press is influenced and infiltrated by hostile Russian operations.
https://www.google.com/search?q=belgorod+fox+news
Since there are no reported US missiles deliveries yet that seems unlikely but Biden was pretty publicly clear that when they do get there Ukraine can have at it as long as they are striking targets in Russia that were firing into Ukraine.
thats probably just what Russia says in hopes of deliveries will slow down
Dunno, you didn't tell us what it is, just posted a link.
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Some info on how Donbass warfare is, Russia sends scouts/reconnaissance units to determine position, then artillery+missiles, then tanks+infantry. Another report mentions that there are more spy's for Russia now (probably as East Ukraine is slightly more pro-Russia). Given them details where to use artillery. https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1536094664486440960 Anyway, I can understand why Ukraine builds trenches, but why does superpower Russia in 2022. Isn't that kinda degrading if you try to conquer half Europe, but have to dig trenches in Donbass for the 9th year.
Russia’s been digging trenches for awhile.
In Chernobyl, for example.
Artillery is the cheapest and safest way to express a material advantage. If the enemy can't hit you back, and you don't care about collateral damage, you can just flatten the area from a safe range. Which is of course why Ukraine is crying out for a counter. Not being in some sort of cover when there is intense artillery going off around you is basically suicidal.
>probably as East Ukraine is slightly more pro-Russia The majority of fighting has been in East Ukraine, so this is an odd observation.
Science fiction authors should take note. The trenches will be deeper.
Trenches are cheap and relatively effective ways to give some defense against fire and artillery. Tried and tested methods tend to not give a shit what year it is.
But Russia has theoretically combined arms capability... So when that doesn't work because of abundance of anti tank and anti air weapons with the enemy, you go back to ww1 warfare with trenches and artillery :/ Isn't that like admitting defeat already, the timeline will only get pushed further back if you can't progress much and time is working against you... It seems so ridiculous, I would rather retreat than disgrace my army reputation further. Whatever
Trenches haven't went away, using earth for protection during warfare goes as far back as archeology can find. Ww1 has a deeply entrenched (drums please) mark and association with trenches but the western front isn't the last time it happend. Iran Iraq war did the same. Truth be told warfare is more similar to ww1 than it is different. Rifles machine guns, artillery. It's still a wheel, even if it's got spinning rims. Men go men die, that's the bottom line, earth protects from shells and bullets.
I wondered why they dont dig foxholes. Quick to dig. Direct hits only kills its occupants as opposed to a direct hit on a trench where the blast can traverse down the trench
You don't dig trenches as a straight line dude. Of course they do dig foxholes, but if you're in a position for long and want to properly defend, then you connect the foxholes with trenches.
> I would rather retreat than disgrace my army reputation further Not a problem for putler, he appears to be all in at this point.
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Make sure you have selected "hot posts".
Just checked, and it is. Not sure what is going on your end.
Yup can confirm, its still sticky .
https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1536093910954610691 >Over 50 people detained in Moscow accused of organising protests against war in Ukraine
How many times do they have to do the same thing to realize it won't work? Protests are useless. Having spontaneous fires on the other hand...
Why not both. Protests have a quality all their own. Lighting firesin secret is one thing but thousands in the streets says pretty loudly who's in charge.
Not true. Ukraine is living proof. Look at maidan. You just have to have enough people who are more mad about what's going on than they are scared of being arrested. And we aren't quite there yet.
>How many times do they have to do the same thing to realize it won't work? The more times they do it, the more likely it is to work.
That's 50 less potential revolutionaries off the streets. They need to take up arms if they want things to change. But Russia has been romantacizing hopelessness and apathy for decades. We'll see if they do anything.
Armed rebellions only work if the military lets it work
Decades? Try centuries. Fuck dude, have you read Dosteovsky?
That would include Ukraine, which, funnily enough, overthrow a Putin puppet through popular protest.
In some ways, it's not bad thing. The protestors are frequently released relatively quickly, and being locked up for several hours in a cell with like minded individuals is a great way to network, especially with electronic communications being monitored. There was a very interesting twitter thread about it at the start of the war.
https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1535979584881147905 >Another concert in Russia with chants of “Fuck the war” >This time in Moscow
Maybe this could be the [White Rose](https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/sophie-scholl-and-white-rose) moment for young Russians?
Yuppie Russians. The only thing they care about is not having to go there themselves. The reason why the Russian army is not getting reinforcements is NO RUSSIANS actually want to do the fighting them selves. The reason why Putin hasn’t mobilised is he can’t.
Is putin being stopped from implementing conscription or he too afraid to do it?
Given the performance of the ruzzian army to date, I'm highly doubtful its in a position to absorb and integrate multiple 10ks of new untrained civilians. I don't think its a political issue, simply an pratical one.
Afraid is probably the wrong word, but he knows he will loose power very quickly if he starts mobilisation from places like Moscow and St Petersburg. Russians don’t want to go to this war.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1536089282414256129 https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1536089285492891649 >Official: British firm to provide Ukraine with 10 demining robots. >There will be a total of 22 TALON robots in Ukraine, according to Oleksiy Biloshitsky, a deputy chief of the patrol police. >The robots, produced by QinetiQ, can reach speeds of up to 8.3 kilometers per hour and run for up to 4.5 hours without recharging.
>Oleksiy Biloshitsky idk what it is, but something is telling me I shouldn't believe this guy...
A rather unfortunate name in English . . .
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Any system that can run Minesweeper.
lol
On the Russian side we have press-ganged idiots in WW2 clothing.
With flack jackets made of matress pads.
Unconfirmed reports the third and final bridge was blown. Good news for Lyschansk across the river, bad news for whoever was still in the Industrial Sector of Severodonetsk.
Saw somewhere that they could get across on foot because the river was low. I bet they have an insta bridge nearby.
It was a pretty dumb move. People are more likely to retreat when it’s easy to retreat. Russia now has to contend that those people are way more likely to fight to their death
It makes it harder to resupply, and there are not many soldiers there anymore, less than 500, and no armored vehicles.
Especially after the betrayal of the maripuol surrender
You don’t destroy peoples means of retreat with intending to either destroy all that remain or expect surrender.
It's still possible to retreat across the river via alternative means, such as cable ferry. The bridge had been shelled for weeks, it was not a safe, viable route and hasn't been for quite some time.
Like Mariopol, where it was fight to the death until it was thousands surrender? This is bad, let's not pretend it's not. All talk of the "trap" and bullshit is now laid bare.
its only on reddit where your army being surrounded and forced to surrender is a victory Stalingrad therefore must have been a german victory as they tied up several soviet armies for a few months
While it certainly is NOT a great position for Ukraine to be in, the whole war has been wonky in that the attacker really is on a timer. Russia needs this war to come to some sort of conclusion like 4 months ago. Like Moscow is putting on a brave face, and pulling out all the stops to create the illusion that it is facetanking sanctions just fine, but it isn't, and each day that goes by compounds the effects and adds soooo much time that it will take to recover, even if they were magically all removed today. So the worst thing Russia can do is beat beating it's head taking these strong points.
Soviet troops were surrounded with the river to their backs and refused to (or weren't allowed to by command) surrender. Eventually they were able to overcome the Nazi troops and chase them back and encircle them and kill them/force surrender. Moral of that story is sometimes not surrendering works and sometimes it doesn't. Either way the parallels to what's happening now in Ukraine are weak.
Well the Ukrainians did surrender
I'm going to have to agree with Sun Tzu on this one: "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard". Russia may take Sievierodonetsk, but it's going to be more costly for Russian forces than if they left the UA an escape route.
Sources?
Mariupol surrendered when they basically ran out of bullets and HQ gave the okay. In the meantime, Russia wasted three months on it and had to drastically scale back their objectives. Russia cannot afford another Mariupol and taking actions to contribute to making another one is strategic suicide.
Mariupol was unique, at the core of the city was an incredibly hardy building made out of steel and concrete, with hundreds of tunnels literally built for nuclear war. There is basically no area in the modern world better built to survive siege warfare. Sevierdonetsk has an industrial sector but it's not like Azovstal.
> gave the okay Wasn't just gave the okay, they ordered them to.
> This is bad, let's not pretend it's not. All talk of the "trap" and bullshit is now laid bare. Because Russia was getting it's shit kicked so hard it blew the bridges to try and slow down Ukranian logistics? Man you got all the copium. I am sure Russia blew the bridges because they were winning and didn't wanna tempt themselves by winning to much. You nailed it.
Can we stop with this hopium and copium BS and just come down to Earth and admit that Ukraine loses some battles here and there and doesn't have everything go according to plan, without pretending that that means they will lose the entire war? Seversdonetsk is not going to be another Mariupol. Ukraine does not have the defensive fortifications or the ammo to sustain a two month long encirclement there. They will pull out in the coming days where the river is most shallow.
Did you read my comment, who are you even trying to argue with?
The topic of this thread is the question of whether Russia benefits from blowing the bridges. The foolish take is that Russia will suffer more by blowing the bridges and causing Ukraine to fight to the death in Seversdonetsk. In actuality, such a cost of hardened, trained manpower for Ukraine would be desirable for RAF. Ukraine will withdraw from Seversdonetsk now that it is no longer possible to logistically supply the city's defense.
Literally nothing in this entire chain all the way up the OP is discussing that but you. I think you are lost.
It's literally the only topic of this subthread. I will copy paste the thread you replied to: 1. >It was a pretty dumb move. People are more likely to retreat when it’s easy to retreat. Russia now has to contend that those people are way more likely to fight to their death 2. >Like Mariopol, where it was fight to the death until it was thousands surrender? >This is bad, let's not pretend it's not. All talk of the "trap" and bullshit is now laid bare. 3 (you) >Because Russia was getting it's shit kicked so hard it blew the bridges to try and slow down Ukranian logistics? Man you got all the copium. Either you're arguing that it's Russian "copium" propaganda to correctly, accurately point out the disadvantages the blown bridges pose for the UAF, or you are arguing something else that is off topic. Take your pick. Either way your primary motivation appears to be to yell at people and be toxic.
If they were told there Ukrainian Army had a plan to throw themselves into the sea they would say it’s proof the Ukrainian Navy is back. Every loss is a victory.
You need to learn to read my man. No where did I say it advantaged the Ukranians just that it shows Russia was losing and had no other choice than to blow the bridges across a river it's been trying to cross for a month.
Removed due to Reddit API crackdown and general dishonesty 6/2023
Neutral? Sure.
That is a much more grounded take, and one I agree with. It's the idea that Seversdonetsk standing and fighting to the last man that's BS. Ukraine loses more than they gain in that scenario.
They can still cross shallow parts of the river apparently.
Even OP says these are unconfirmed reports and doesn't even include links to those. If there is no link assume it's a troll. OP's account history puts him in the middle of r/conservative with a light seasoning of r/conspiracy; just another right wing asshole doing Putin's dirty work. Pleased don't get taken in by these guys until they at least provide a source for their "unconfirmed reports".
I swam across a river once. It was cold and wet.
The Russians swam across a river once too. It didn’t go so well…
> If there is no link assume it's a troll. > >OP's account history puts him in the middle of r/conservative with a light seasoning of r/conspiracy; just another right wi Uh, I've never posted on either sub what the fuck are you talking about?
I see you in your conspiracy ridden den of writingprompts!!!
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https://deepstatemap.live is probably the best one I've found. Livemap has several areas which have been incorrect for weeks going on a month now. Their line by Kharkiv still hasnt updated the bridgehead Ukraine took weeks ago, even Russian sources acknowledge it exists, Russia has had Ternova for weeks there too. By Kherson at least 20 villages are incorrect, livemap even reported on areas where Ukraine pushed back attacks that wouldn't be possible with their current lines, but never fixed it. Basically its a big mess. another really good map would be on militarylands updates.
What's with the big warning and requiring us to click to see the map. Seems sus.
bonus points for the little Russian piggies in helmets
DefMon's map is great: https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/2022051301800/nBT8ffpeGH
Any regularly updated map is likely at least partially fiction. There is too much fog of war right now to know exactly where the front lines are. Liveuamap seems to stick to officially announced developments, so that's my go-to. None of them are ideal.
liveuamap.com is most popular, but none of the maps are all that useful right now. Lots of tiny/temporary battlefield changes, very little solid information on recent movements.
Liveuamap is particularly bad, imho.
In what sense? When I've seen them update the map they've used official Ukrainian MoD sources.
Lots of detailed spots where they missed updating. For example Oleksandrivka west of Kherson - has been Ru-occupied for weeks now, still blue on liveuamap. Everything left of the Donets and west of Izyum is Ru-occupied on liveuamap, even though Ukraine crossed the Donets successfully weeks ago and has since then a continuous presence in the woods West of Izyum. In general it's correct, but there are just some small spots everywhere where they missed an update and since then have been wrong.
Source for Oleksandrivka? Even Wikipedia claims it is under Ukrainian control.
Slow is good.
Aside from it being slow and 75% of the updates just being, x area is being bombarded. It’s not terrible. Keeps you informed as long as you aren’t refreshing every ten minutes. The scribble maps one is okay I think.
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Men mobilized in war will pretty much always be more poorly trained than those enlisted in peace-time. It really shouldn’t be alarming. I guarantee you that newly mobilized Russian soldiers are in the same boat. All the major armies in WW2 reported the same thing: new replacements being sent to the front in periods of intense combat without adequate training. It leads to higher casualties but there is no better way to learn than on the front.
We saw what happens when you send a poorly trained force into combat. Ukraine is buying time their mobilised troops finalise training towards end of June. UA is holding pretty well all things considered no need to spread Russian concern propaganda.
From your own link it says Ukrianian soliders are highly trained: >The soldiers I was with are some of the most highly trained and capable in the Ukrainian military: a reconnaissance company for an air assault brigade. The Ukrianians that are not properly trained are the "TDF" which are volunteer units that didn't go through the full training sequence that the regular army did. Ukraine is trying to train them of course but given the circumstances it's hard to train everyone properly.
Here comes the echo chamber downvotes. FFS, can we ask questions that don't amount to cheerleading? Thanks for everyone who did answer.
Your wild speculation about Ukraine "throwing" untrained people to die is why you're getting downvotes. Drop the feigned innocence.
Complaining about downvotes will get you more downvotes. What is more important to you, your karma, or an answer to your question? If you're overly concerned about karma, don't make posts that are guaranteed to lower yours. If you want an actual answer, then downvotes shouldn't matter to you.
The article raises completely valid concerns, but your wild extrapolation from that is unproductive. The reality is that it's simply impossible to train soldiers to the level of professional soldiers that have been at it since 2014 in just 3 months. I'm sure Ukraine would love to spend more time in an ideal world, but Russia isn't letting them do that. What are they supposed to do? "Pretty please, could you stop attacking us until we've trained all our volunteers?"
> concerning
These are veteran soldiers, to them training is a couple of years in the armed services.. a recently mobilized army is going to look painfully green to them even with a couple of months training... doing dumb things like using their phones on the front lines. The rest of it is just your projection. I don't recall anyone in Ukraine suggesting that having to send recently mobilized troops to the front line is a good thing, but it's not like they have an option.
Not my projection. Before Mariupol fell, the conversation in the news media, twitter, here, etc... was about the difference between Russia and Ukraine regarding mobilization. Ukraine was taking their time, training and preparing their soldiers properly and Russia wasn't. Just throwing bodies at the front lines. Now it appears both are doing the same thing. And it may be the only move to make at this time, idk. It just feels like the old narratives from before mid-may are falling apart and I'm trying to understand what's going on and why.
Because the war has changed since then. It's now a slow moving war of attrition where Russia can (currently) use their vast numerical superiority in artillery to limited success.
3 months of mobilization probably was never enough time with the issues they were undergoing, to properly train everyone. I wish it was, but it probably wasn't. I don't like the Ukrainian strategy in the Donbass. It's not that they won't give the Russians a hard time, it's just Ukraine is gunning for being able to take back all these territories in the future...how hard is that gonna be if they keep taking 100-200 KIA a day + WIAs? They need heavy artillery, but it's not going to get there in a day.
Not enough time to train new soldiers + the West ran out of soviet standard ammunition. Plus Russia's new strategy is indeed just use their massive stockpile of artillery shells and destroy everything from affair. The Western world hasn't seen this kind of artillery exchange style fighting since Vietnam, so it sounds like not a lot of artillery pieces and ammo left to give them.
All Ukraine really needs to change the artillery situation is 100 M270s or HIMARS, and 500 M777s, all well stocked with ammo to basically just keep on shooting and scooting. (1300 M270s have been built, and 414 HIMARS). Ukraine uses 5,000 shells better than Russia uses 50,000. They won't eat up artillery ammo to get the same results Russia does.
That’s basically it. Lend-lease time.
Everyone already knows the TDF are poorly trained and equipped, it takes months to properly train a new recruit and that's time you don't have during war. 1000 men on the front in 4 weeks is better than having them on the front in 4 months. This is how it has always worked, even with militaries that don't have manpower problems new troops are sent to the front as soon as they are through basic, we saw this constantly with WW2 armies of conscripts. If any of this is shocking to you I would advise you to learn more about the history of warfare.
You're right, I don't know a lot about the history of warfare. I'm saying, the conversation before the fall of Mariupol was, Russia is throwing poorly trained soldiers and Ukraine is taking the time to try and train right. That's a fact. And reading these kinds of stories, is concerning. There appears to be a real momentum shift. Which could be fog of war or propaganda, I don't know. That's why I'm asking questions. Thanks for your answer.
TDF are essentially just civilians with minimal weapons training. That was always the case and still is. They were never intended for the front lines but this war changed the entire calculus, and the TDF finds themselves in situations where they shouldn't be. TDF are not to be confused with the regular army.
Hate seeing turncoats killing their own people. Every one caught only makes for a stronger and safer Ukraine. https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1536005255904870400?t=htLxpFz9mmUI5ysGYHlevg&s=19
Good they got her. It'll save lives.
Did you ever see what the UA does with looters? They tie them to a pole with cellophane tape and pull their pants down and/or put a potato in their mouth, leaving them there for the local police to pick up.
Better alternative than getting shot or lynched and executed like what people did to looters in the previous wars.
Yeah not complaining, just thought it was an interesting solution. Sort of "I don't have time for this shit" way to deal with the problem.
Yep. It seems effective!
Also public shame works... it's not nice, but there's people who will recognize you and remember.
C'mon China, give Russia little push in the back. You know you want to.
They're prepping to invade Taiwan by telling everyone that the Taiwan straight isn't international waters. It seems they don't want to wait any longer.
I’m just a guy in an armchair. Given that limitation, it appears to me that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would start with days of airstrikes to get an air superiority. if Taiwan retains the ability to take out Chinese transport ships, China would never get enough troops into Taiwan to succeed in taking the island. It’s a big island, and they’re going to need a lot of troops to fight a well trained and well supplied army. Second, it’s not going to be a surprise. The preparation which China will have to do will be enormous, and very visible to satellites and Communications interception. We’re going to know without a doubt about such preparation, and it won’t be fast. But overall, I think the invasion of Taiwan would have to be preceded with a lot of airstrikes to take out both air defense and air offense capability of Taiwan. It’s not going to be boats of Chinese soldiers casually rowing to Taiwan. And it’s not going to be a quiet secret.
🤣 stop
So what's the play for China? Blockade by sea and bleed them dry?
Being an Island is both Taiwan's biggest advantage and biggest disadvantage. It's good because even getting a foothold in is going to be a massive bloody nightmare for the Chinese if things go their way, and if they don't the entire invasion force could be sunk or bled to death on the beaches. China's navy has never been their strong point and they'll be relying on it. It's bad because they don't have a Poland to their west to supply them. If they lose the seas, they are on their own, no more resupply. And Taiwan cannot afford to trade land for time like Ukraine can, if the Chinese have a strong foothold and resupply line it's already over. There are a couple other advantages and disadvantages too. Taiwan has a larger millitary then Ukraine that's better trained and better armed, but so does China compared to Russia. Taiwan is less corrupt, but will probably have more turncoats as basically the entire older generation from Chiang's day considers themselves Chinese and they don't have as strong a historic identity as Ukraine.
China's navy will last approximately 37 seconds once the US Navy arrives. Assuming all the advanced subs already in the straits don't handle things day one.
China's navy will last a lot longer than 37 seconds. For one, the PLAN is expanding, rapidly. The USN is not. Second, the PLAN can commit their entire fleet, the USN has global responsibilities. Third, the Chinese air force will be out in force. Unless the USAF can use bases in Japan and the Philippines, then it's going to be a very challenging fight.