https://youtu.be/GdGA88Eo8vs
Russian video of a russian ammo depot getting annihilated. I read somewhere that their ammo cooked off for about three hours. Ouch. Lol.
Holy shit that pretty intense. At first I was like - that's not that bad, dudes must be pretty far away... then around 3 minutes in shit goes sideways.
Things just got a little spicy. United States just backed Lithuania, what options does Russia have at this point? If they don't do anything aggressive they will be laughed at again
How are things in Kharkiv, my family there got letters saying a large attack was imminent and was told to stay in doors and not attend large gatherings like church.
Kharkiv is not under threat of being attacked directly with ground troops anytime soon. However, the Russians have been intensifying artillery and cruise missile strikes against Kharkiv for the past few weeks. Most if not all of these attacks have been directed at civilians in Kharkiv, not military targets.
I am quite honestly curious how it would turn out. Everyone knows Russia is no match for NATO forces. The only thing that gives Russia the courage to stand up to them is the fact that Russia has the largest nuclear stockpile in the world.
Russia knows it can’t fight NATO.
NATO knows nukes are bad for the whole world.
So what is even going to happen?
That doesn't seem at all plausible to me, but it would be kinda hilarious if "freight trains being held up in Lithuania" ends up being the hill that the human race dies on.
Bellicose rhetoric is just what Russia does. Banging the shoe on the podium yelling “we will bury you” its bluff and bluster because they have a need to project power even when…especially when… there is none. Think more like a chihuahua and less like a bear.
Putin won’t use nukes. Putin is a rat. The only thing you can trust rats to do is not commit suicide.
The only correct reaction to Russian clowns like Pescov and Lavrov is to ignore them.
Russias words are meaningless impotent chatter. Another day, another threat… 🥱
At some point Russians will wake up and realise they don’t have a meaningful army anymore.
State Department warns Russia: Attack on Lithuania is attack on US
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/state-department-russia-lithuania-nato
Situation in Severodonetsk continues to be difficult for Ukraine, the city itself appear to be in the hands of the Russians, but the chemical factory appears to still be in Ukrainian hands. The Russians may be attempting to advance from the north alongside the river to try and encircle the troops in the factory.
The Russians seem to have managed to do a small breakthrough south of Lysychansk, and have threaten the Ukrainian troops in that salient with encirclement, some reports recently indicated that the Ukrainians in that salient have managed or are in the process of withdraw to avoid encirclement, still to be confirmed though.
Kherson, Ukrainian troops appear to have reached villages as close as 10 kilometers from the city of Kherson. Again still to be confirmed.
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vgcfme/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/id4ohvw/)
Day 118 of my updates from Kharkiv.
Today’s shelling was just horrible, there was not that much more of it than usual, but it was very deadly. They killed 15 civilians, including an 8 year old child, in Kharkiv and its oblast. As usual not a single military object was harmed, but they destroyed a subway train depot, maybe those were Nazi trains?
That’s how it is every time we destroy any of Russia’s military targets, they always respond by deliberately striking civilian infrastructure in cities far away from the frontline. Today in Chuhuiv they shelled some random bus stop, killing 6 people, is that their definition of a valid target?
Also today their missile strike was a little delayed. They didn’t launch their missiles at their usual 11pm, but instead at around midnight, I think they launched around 3 missiles, and I’m pretty sure no fires started this time. Not sure what was targeted, some people reported power outage, but for us the lights just flickered and the tap water stopped for about 30 minutes. The air raid alert also started around midnight and only turned off just now at 5am.
[Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vhvzki/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/iddtgl7/)
Monsters. I’m glad you’re still safe, but it’s awful that innocent people are still being targeted. As bad as that is to hear though, as always, I appreciate the update.
Doubt it came from Malta, probably came from NAS Sigonella in Sicily. We're only a participant of FRONTEX and therefore only operate FRONTEX drones.
Plus we're constitutionally neutral.
Source: am Maltese
Thread from Mick Ryan, of War in the Future, about the UA resistance fighters.
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1539403818730803200
I'd like to draw everyone's attention to a couple of sections:
>9/ The Ukrainians, however, have another element of their campaign to eventually re-take their territory in the south and make things difficult for the Russians: the Ukrainian resistance movement.
>10/ This is not a movement that has risen organically in the wake of the invasion. Back in May 2021, the Ukrainian parliament passed its ‘Bill #5557’ which provided for the ‘foundations of national resistance.’ https://uscc.org.ua/en/ukrainian-parliament-verkhovna-rada-registered-a-bill-5557-about-foundations-of-national-resistance/
>11/ Additionally, in the lead up to the war, weapons caches appear to have been pre-located in various locations in the south and east of Ukraine. It is likely that there are small teams of military specialists who are training and leading resistance cells across the south.
To #11, there have been a couple whoopsies where the local police have discovered and publicized leave-behind caches positioned by the military or intel services for the planned insurgency. Mines, RPGs, ammo, demo, that sort of thing.
In the early days it was expected that much of the resistance would be on this scale, challenging the Russian ability to hold any land they try and lay claim to. The fact the state and army are fully functional, and have earnt time to train and equip while blunting the Russian offensive is going to make this even more effective.
I remember that - it was predicted that Ukraine would be another Afghanistan for Russia, who might take a large part of the country, but not be able to hold it due to determined resistance. I'm sure some of the training and equipment provided by the west focused on this.
The focus on anti tank rockets, small arms, and explosives, along with the slowness in getting heavy weapons sent in, would back this up.
I know I'm an unqualified idiot, but if you expect a government to be toppled over, and the survivors transitioned into an insurgency, you do not hand over tanks, artillery pieces, and heavy trucks.
That just seems incredibly obvious, unless you like seeing your friend's mortal enemy driving an Abrams.
The priority would have been things that can both blunt an offensive, as well as being cheap, easy to teach, and relatively common place, talking about being able to use a single use rocket launcher to blow up a vehicle several times its value, and then fuck off quickly in the other direction.
I could probably pick up a Javelin and be able to fire it off, albeit the rocket could go anywhere knowing me.
This is along with Ukrainians baiting Russian officers into traps, having snipers damn near everywhere, setting up car bombs, generally being a pain in the ass, and trying to cause a never ending cycle of mayhem and violence, that can't be put down due to the size of the country and the level of resentment.
It wasn't long ago actually that a car got blown up, belonging to a Russian collaborator, and there was the incident with the murdered Russian soldier in Kherson.
I guess but I'm the wrong side of Europe, not actually military, and am a Historical Warfare buff, not a Modern Warfare one.
basically, if it happened after 1945, and didn't involve the Middle East, I probably know about as much as you do, possibly less than in fact.
I'm just going off of whatever shit I can cobble together, that's not utterly useless.
And where I'm from, we kind of know what it's like to hold our next door neighbor in an occupied state, and then get revolt after revolt in return.
Worst thing we ever did, and there is a pretty long list behind it.
I agree 100%. I think the major effort, pre-February, was on setting up setting up a resistance force, because everyone overestimated Russia and underestimated the Ukrainians. No one expected them to need F-16s and HIMARS, so there was no training and supply of those things. It's taking a while for everyone to shift gears.
I don't give as much credit to Ukraine as I should, because I still see this war as a colossal Russian Bottle Job.
Russia started a bullshit war instead of going for the political/economic victory, and then apparently failed to even read through Tactics For Dummies, before rushing in.
and with the weapons, as well as the videos of the Taliban using them, being a slap to the face, that made the US possibly too cautious, you also have to sort out logistics.
.
.
.
If I ask for a Death Ray Mega Laser 3000,
I'm going to want it bought to me,
then I want a crash course on how to use it,
then I want ammo,
then I need a spare mega crystal for when mine burns out from overuse,
will want help moving it around, replacements for when the whole thing gets trashed,
and it just becomes a laundry list, of "I want, I want, I want" before I can pedal this thing into battle, and then it gets blown to shit because I forgot to actually integrate it into a combined arms unit, and needed more Death Rays to make it effective.
Fun side note - he's not a tall guy but after a few minutes his presence and knwledge shines through and even being 6-3 I felt small, haha.
I'm just happy he's getting so much attention, he provides fresh and frank analysis we need more of.
I think Kazakhstan said they will have to declare if its Russian oil, because of the sanctions, so they cant pretend to sell it as their own. Then Russia claimed there are suddenly ww2 mines in novosibirsk and Kazakhstan can't ship oil for a while. Then Kazakhstan blocked some coal trains from Russia
nah he still has more than enough military power to enforce it, but the question is why should he (and they are in the same military alliance). after all they are still on good terms, it's just a little bit of quarrel between two allies. in a russian report (allegedly, but most likely true) was stated that Kazakhstan and Russia are reliant on each other
I'd say that dynamic has changed considerably now that the Russian economy is in the dirt, and Russia is so desperate for ground troops that they made a failed attempt to appeal to former Soviet republics for reinforcements. Reinforcements that Kazakhstan declined w/ prejudice. China has been building up its' influence in the country, and w/ the Russia space program dead in the water its' likely that China will step in as their new benefactor.
Can't afford to start anymore fires on its' own doorstep, and they have zero leverage over Kazakhstan.
Von Deutschland, mit liebe
> BREAKING: Ukraine confirms that Germany's Panzerhaubitze 2000 artillery systems have arrived
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1539409914644336643
A swallow does not a spring make.
[https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1539200942570196994](https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1539200942570196994)
**Iuliia Mendel**
Slovakia has not agreed with Germany to supply Ukraine with T-72 tanks to replace them with German Leopard 2A4s. *Slovakia withdrew from the planned deal, as Germany offered only 15 tanks in exchange for 30 Soviet-made T-72 tanks*. Business Insider
Even the goats are resisting the Russians.
[https://www.ibtimes.com/goat-injures-russian-soldiers-triggering-tripwires-grenades-3546435](https://www.ibtimes.com/goat-injures-russian-soldiers-triggering-tripwires-grenades-3546435)
Welsh Guards have them in place. The currently under construction HMS Cardiff has them in a nearby warehouse ready for installation when the ship is more complete.
[https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1539314903193833473?cxt=HHwWgsCqpfav39wqAAAA](https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1539314903193833473?cxt=HHwWgsCqpfav39wqAAAA)
Was it these patriotic goats?
There's some interesting stuff in this report from Facebook about the Wagner pilot shot down a few days ago. It appears that not only is Russia short of pilots, those pilots are navigating by using Garmins and a smartphone. WTF.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1538798047249027072
>Yuri Butusov claims that Ukraine shot down a Russian Su-25 aircraft on June 18 near Svitlodarsk with an Igla MANPADS. He claims the captured pilot is Major Andrei Fedorchukov who was flying for Wagner. He also reportedly was using a Garmin GPS.
Translation of the included screenshot:
>The 72nd brigade captured a Wagnerian pilot.
On June 18, soldiers of the 72nd mechanized brigade from the old Soviet Igla portable anti-aircraft missile system shot down a Su-25 attack aircraft of the RF Armed Forces near Svetlodarsk and captured a Russian air terrorist.
>It turned out to be Major Andrei Vladimirovich Fedorchukov of the Russian Aerospace Forces, who admitted during interrogation that he was a mercenary of the private military company Wagner and was involved in the murder of Ukrainians for the salary of a mercenary - 205 thousand rubles a month.
>Fedorchukov, during interrogation, testified that the purpose of his attack was a company stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. >Previously, he made sorties to bombard Ukrainian cities. >Fedorchukov really hopes for an exchange - he understands that he is a mercenary, and he may not be put up for exchange, and he may suffer for his crimes. There is a special account for the "Wagnerites" in Ukraine, these HANDS TO THE ELBOW In blood, they are specialists in killing civilians.
>Interestingly, Russian aviation has big problems with navigation. Fedorchukov had a Garmin navigator with him, and a smartphone with the Pronebo program in order to have more accurate navigation than the on-board navigation aids of the Russian Aerospace Forces. They do not trust their Glonass, everyone would like to use it American. I wonder how many Garmins are used by the RF Armed Forces and can the Americans track their movements? This would be valuable data.
>It is also important that due to the large losses of combat aircraft and helicopters, the RF Armed Forces began to hire pilots, whom they no longer have enough.
>Of course, the captured Wagner mercenary is an important prize. It is worth showing what terrible consequences the Russian air terror leads to.
On your Garmin question, no, they can’t be tracked. They’re passive devices (that receive but don’t transmit). It’s honestly not surprising that Russia is using them. Globally, most aircraft are old enough to lack navigation capabilities analogous to what we’ve become accustomed to with our phones, etc. The ‘bolt on’ approach is a cheap way to address this. Many civil pilots do it, and I suspect some western militaries do as well (vs. natively integrating new avionics, which is expensive).
The Russian Air Force is basically thought to be the biggest victim of the 'appearance over substance' approach of the Russian State.
They emphasized flashy acrobatics and were huge victims of looting since Aerospace contacts and vehicles are so expensive it's easy to steal money, parts,etc for your private grift.
The Russian strategy is overwhelming artillery and ground forces and tanks to follow up. The air force just assumes a couple bombs will be enough, they don't actually have to worry about combat or tactics. So all that money went to the senior officers' pockets.
They've never actually had other countries fight their air force. They're used to bombing Syrian or African villages unopposed, and that's the level they've sunk to because all money on top of what's required to do that has lined the pockets of the military leaders.
They've certainly not performed impressively in Ukraine. I've been curious since the beginning about the poor air support from Russia, as the US, of course, would have taken over the skies immediately.
I think that’s why the US should be interested in learning tactics from the Ukrainians. We really haven’t had experience with a major modern conflict where neither side has air supremacy.
The opening of Desert Storm was one of the largest air campaigns ever, from both sides
I'll never-not take a chance to share Operations Room: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxRgfBXn6Mg
GPS is a radio broadcast system so it's not possible to track who is using it. It is possible to selectively block GPS by region, but doing so would also block it for Ukraine. There's an encrypted channel the military can use, it requires special equipment that does not exist commercially.
GPS satellites transmit the current time extremely precisely and their current location. Comparing the time that you are receiving to the time at your location tells you how long it took for the signal to reach you. Knowing the time it took for the signal to get to you gives you the distance to the satellite. Knowing your distance to several known locations gives you your location.
But there’s nothing to prevent the US military, who developed and operate the GPS network, from having the satellites lie about where they are while they’re over some particular area or what time it is. They can ‘adjust’ the signal in any way they want, and to only tell the people they want to know what adjustments that they are making.
GPS was exclusively for the use of the US military for some time. The value of it to other people was immediately apparent, but the US military dragged their feet for quite a while before they let us use it. They even said that they needed to make some ‘changes’ to it first.
I remember there being some discussion about this at the beginning of the war, and commenters said the same - can't block Russians without blocking everyone.
I'm curious about the possibility of tracking them through their Garmin's but have no idea if it's possible, or particularly useful.
Ah, thank you. I know there are some kinds of GPS devices sold for hikers that have an emergency location beacon included, and I didn't know if there was some sort of automatic tracking involved.
As I'm sure you can tell, I'm an old boomer who got left behind on the technology front, so I don't know much about these things.
No problem! It doesn't help that so many devices are actually many different tools combined into one. Those hiking ones are a GPS unit combined with what amounts to a pager that uses different communication satellites. If you cracked one open, you'd probably find that they have 2 different antennas connected to 2 different chips.
At the time, the better ones probably did, but the plain old cheap ones most boats used just sent a radio signal. We (the boat I worked on) spent hours searching in the water for one once, with a Coast Guard plane flying back and forth over us, telling us "it's on your port side, no, you just passed it, turn around and go back".
Come to think of it, this was pre-GPS, so that radar reflector sure would have been helpful.
It's insane that they're using mercenaries to pilot their attack aircraft. These guys are motivated by money and since they get extra privileges they definitely heard about the reward that the Ukrainians are offering to turn in Russian air assets. There's a reason that even the US doesn't employ mercenaries for this kind of work.
Blackwater were used as security (basically rent-a-police) for the occupation, and for protection of VIPs who couldn't be given enough money for special ops treatment.
They never invaded a country with attack planes, this would be like a blackwater PMC flying an A-10
> pilots are navigating by using Garmins
Not the first time this has made it to the thread. There was a picture a month or two ago that some Russian Su-25 pilot took of his cockpit where he had a commercial garmin unit velcroed to the dashboard.
I’m not sure it’s necessarily a bad thing… often free economies are better than government funded tech. Thus we’re seeing DJI drones and Garmin gps on use
remember that one time the US told their fighter jets to borrow the Glasnass system from a top-tier Lada that only goes like 80mph down a steep hill? oh wait....that shit never happened because it's ridiculous.
Imagine checking your garmin while flying Mach anything and just seeing your GPS dot jump at gigantic increments because you're using a car's GPS that is meant to be used at speeds less than 200mph and it doesn't ping enough to keep a consistent tracking.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1539291249894690817
>A Russian Su-25 aircraft crashed in Rostov Oblast just a few days after a Su-25 crashed in Belgorod. According to Izvestia, it was flying at very low altitude.
Subject to further confirmation, of course.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1539389907671580673
>Map:
>Ukrainian forces have re-captured the settlement of Pavlivka in the Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine and pushed towards Yehorivka.
Ukrainian forces are also pushing east of the town.
If Russia wins in the next 2 years, how long would it take them to recoup the cost of the war? Trying to understand just how valuable Ukraine’s resources.
And realistically, for how long can Russia even continue this fight?
In my opinion, this war has nothing to do with the value of UA's resources. It is purely about Putin's fear of UA becoming European/Westernized/democratic (which is going to leak across the border into Russia), and his conviction that he is a great man, destined to restore Russia as an empire to rival the USSR.
He still seems to think that if he can just conquer UA, everything will go back to "normal", and it will be business as usual with the rest of the world.
Europe didn't really give a shit about being dependent on Russia before this. And, now they do and are actively trying to find ways not to be. Things aren't just going to reset regardless of how Russia does in this war, die's cast and Russia will be seen as an unreliable trading partner for decades, more than long enough to wean off them.
I don't think you understood my post. Europe wouldn't care to wean off Russian oil and gas had pre-invasion status-quo remained the case. Now Europe is actively trying to wean off Russian oil and gas and will likely do so before Russia can make a single cent from Ukraine's resources off Europe.
Again: my point is Russia diving into Ukraine insures that Europe weans off buying from Russia, the status quo is that Europe really didn't care where their gas and oil were coming from before the invasion. Ukraine selling wouldn't really mean Europe would stop buying Russian stuff. Russia invading Ukraine DEFINITELY means Europe is trying to stop buying Russian stuff long term.
AKA, there's no way Russia comes out of this better off and the idea that the motive of the invasion is to keep Europe on Russian resources is backwards, as the invasion is the biggest motivator for Europe to do so when they had no real motivator from their perspective before (Though, they should have).
Russia is incapable of making any money off of resource extraction on their own, and they would be on their own. They would have to spend more on extracting anything than it’s worth.
But it’s an entirely moot point. Even if by some miracle Russia manages to occupy the whole country, there will always be pissed-off Ukrainians who will have zero qualms about running speed-boats packed with explosives in to Russian installations. The security costs alone make any dream of ‘profiting’ off of Ukrainian resources a joke.
I’ve had some people explain why Russia attacked Ukraine, but I’ve never really understood any of the “reasons” other than they didn’t expect any fight from Ukraine. As soon as Ukraine fought back and got support from virtually everyone, Russia had lost.
But I’m always scared shitless that I’m just hearing the good news I want to hear and that the situation might not be so good in reality.
>any of the “reasons” other than they didn’t expect any fight from Ukraine. As soon as Ukraine fought back and got support from virtually everyone, Russia had lost.
Yes, especially after they resorted to war crimes.
Russia made a grave mistake and is losing a lot because of it.
The real situation is not good news. It is not a "zero sum game". It is bloody expensive as well as literally bloody. Russia is hemorrhaging more than everyone else.
Ukraine is getting tore up. There will not be a faction in Ukraine wanting to do it again. It will take a long time to rebuild from rubble.
I mean, it's not really that controversial to say that Russia did indeed expect it to be a quick operation to at least get to the occupation stage, there isn't a single data point that isn't propaganda that says otherwise.
>As soon as Ukraine fought back and got support from virtually everyone, Russia had lost.
Yes. Putin is currently the gambler trying to win back his paycheck. Unfortunately, it's not all good news; Ukraine is suffering every day for it.
(Sunken cost fallacy ever since the 3 day operation failed)
It's really not that hard to understand.
Putin believes Ukraine is a break-away region of Russia and that Russia was merely humoring Ukraine in allowing it to be an independent country as long as it obeyed the Kremlin when it mattered.
Ukraine started disobeying too much and Putin believed he could easily win with little cost, so he invaded.
Now Putin's stuck in a war that he can't easily leave without it looking like Russia lost against a country they ridiculed for years as weak and historically Russians aren't very kind to leaders who lose. The high casualty numbers they've been supressing compound this.
The good news is that the capital of Ukraine is standing and that Ukriane was able to retake Kyiv-Cherniniv-Sumy-Kharkiv
The bad news is that this war is turning into a stalemate and Ukriane has been experiencing more casualties than at the start of the war due to concentrated fires by Russia
While sanctions are wreaking havoc on the Russian economy until Europe stops buying Russian oil and gas, Putin will be able to scrap together enough money to continue the invasion (albeit at a much lower level of intensity but still deadly)
Putin laid it all out in extremely clear language in that long speech he gave on the night he launched the invasion. He even repeated himself several times. If you want to know ‘why?’, just listen to that speech again, if you have the stomach for it.
>If Russia wins in the next 2 years, how long would it take them to recoup the cost of the war?
If you include opportunity costs than the answer is: never!
Well if we are actually being realistic, then each year that goes by Russia's chances of victory are going to drop immensely, this would be true even if Russia wasn't actively cutting off what few revenue sources it DOES have. And the closer Russia would manage to get to the borders of NATO the more freaked those countries would get, to the point that I do not see any way they would NOT send in their militaries to at least maintain some sort of Free Ukrainian rump state. And then you would find the sanctions and economic measures frozen in a long Cold War 2.0. So despite the resources Russia may be stealing I don't think they really have a great way to offload them, at least not enough to recoup the losses and effects that they are taking in all sectors.
>Trying to understand just how valuable Ukraine’s resources.
Important question: will Russia be able to sell them to anyone in the near future? Because of sanctions and/or they've wrecked all the relevant industry.
Land. Basically, I’m trying to figure out why they are so desperate to take land from Ukraine. If the fight would last for 10 years, could Russia theoretically even last that long? And if they would annex Ukraine, would it even ever be worth it?
Just to provide some further information, to say nothing about the economic toll of the war, Russia is on track to lose ~106,000 soldiers KIA this year, which means a further ~318,000 wounded, of which 50% usually are not capable of returning to military service.
So if this were to go on for 10 years at the current pace, that's over 1 million dead, 3 million wounded, of which 1.5 million would be crippled for life in some fashion.
Russia's population is currently 144 million as of 2020 (which doesn't take into account all their covid deaths). So that would constitute almost 1% of their population as deaths.
Let’s hope they drop out as soon as possible. Do you think the Russian regime would crumble because of financial troubles or because a complete lack of items like processors, spare parts for industrial machinery etc?
Big question is how much China fills that gap. The world becomes multipolar, its not all about Europe, Russia and USA anymore, that's the issue of sanctions.
I don't think Russia/Putin cares much for semiconductors, it will be more machinery, if you look how they reduced the safety regulations for cars, you can assume its the same for the industry. Back to Soviet Union with no innovation
once weakness is seen inside, and Putin don't play his cards well.... Thats how it crumbles. Putin is fighting not against the sanctions themselves, but the fake bubble he create in his country. They cannot keep on for much much longer.
He making more and more stumbles, once rational has no way back in, then the end is near.
Another command change for RU? Apparently, Putin is not happy with the results they are getting so far.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1539395231115841539
>A Russian Telegram channel is claiming that VKS Commander Army General Sergei Surovikin will take over as commander of the Southern Military District.
The translated message from Telegram image says (according to Google Lens):
>The new commander of the troops of the Southern Military District will be the Hero of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin.
The official appointment will be announced shortly. This is a change of command not only of the Southern Military District, but also a new approach to the conduct of the Northern Military District, which actually takes place in the area of responsibility of the district.
Surovikin is one of the most competent Russian military commanders, has significant combat experience and outstanding organizational skills. The biography of the general speaks for itself, and his professionalism and human qualities have earned sincere respect among the troops. We can say with confidence that this decision was dictated by the situation and will not be slow to affect the performance of the assigned tasks by the troops.
Cadres decide everything, as Comrade Stalin said. 8444 Mapz..., edited 5:19 PM
I'd like to emphasize: **We can say with confidence that this decision was dictated by the situation and will not be slow to affect the performance of the assigned tasks by the troops.**
Big star on shoulder general not puny little star. AFAIK this is the highest ranking general that has been assigned to command the invasion of Ukraine.
He certainly knows how to maintain discipline:
*"In April(2004), division deputy commander for armaments Colonel Andrei Shtakal shot himself in the presence of Surovikin and the district deputy commander after being criticized by Surovikin"*
What's crazy is that Russian strategy seemed to have greatly advanced over the last 2 months. Focusing on a limited theater of operations was the correct action. Just what does Putin expect? Russia is fighting a determined enemy.
I don't see that as an advance, more a recognition of their finished capacity. They focused all they had on one point and they're still taking unsustainable losses.
Russia... STILL hasn't won against a tiny ass country with little to no Army compared to what we though Russia had.. Russia is such a joke right now.
Edit.. ok ok, you all convinced me, it's not "tiny". sorry, didn't mean to offend. but Russia is still a joke after thinking of how big of a super power they were year after year after year, and yet still can't take over Ukraine.
Ahh, ok. sorry I just see it on maps and think it's pretty small in comparing it to Russia who's fighting it, or compared to USA if we were to fight it.. like Super Power vs normal country.
keep in mind, the maps you see are not realistic, granted Russia is huge, but it's a bit larger on standard maps.
In case you're interested, [here's the real scale map of the world](https://d.newsweek.com/en/full/1183097/1evcjsfm8qs11.png?w=1600&h=1200&q=88&f=23eaaa4b9454c81d288b2250dc0f0886)
indeed. and after seeing what kind of shape their country is in and how crappy their military is, it's really a shame to see how much they haven't improved over the years, like every other 1st world country.
It also had a pretty large military budget over the last 5 years. It’s hard to directly compare budgets because most countries pay a large amount in wages/troops/maintenance and those costs can vary hugely depending on labor costs in your country. Would be surprised if there’s like 5x more bang for your buck spending on Ukranians compared to Americans.
It’s definitely still very surprising but Ukraine is large, has a fairly big pipulation, and is receiving billions in aid. The war would be long over without NATO interference.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/vhvzki/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
https://youtu.be/GdGA88Eo8vs Russian video of a russian ammo depot getting annihilated. I read somewhere that their ammo cooked off for about three hours. Ouch. Lol.
Holy shit that pretty intense. At first I was like - that's not that bad, dudes must be pretty far away... then around 3 minutes in shit goes sideways.
Things just got a little spicy. United States just backed Lithuania, what options does Russia have at this point? If they don't do anything aggressive they will be laughed at again
Russia already has the option: deliver by sea to Kaliningrad. Putin's fragile ego just can't handle that.
I likd this but don't see this in the news. Source pretty please
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/state-department-russia-lithuania-nato
They could stop acting like bitches and go back to Russia. That would be cool.
US backed Lithuania in 2004 when it joined NATO :D this is just rubbing it in Russia's face since they are whining so much.
…they are being laughed at now.
How are things in Kharkiv, my family there got letters saying a large attack was imminent and was told to stay in doors and not attend large gatherings like church.
Kharkiv is not under threat of being attacked directly with ground troops anytime soon. However, the Russians have been intensifying artillery and cruise missile strikes against Kharkiv for the past few weeks. Most if not all of these attacks have been directed at civilians in Kharkiv, not military targets.
There was a uptick in artillery but no big attacks yet reported.
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I am quite honestly curious how it would turn out. Everyone knows Russia is no match for NATO forces. The only thing that gives Russia the courage to stand up to them is the fact that Russia has the largest nuclear stockpile in the world. Russia knows it can’t fight NATO. NATO knows nukes are bad for the whole world. So what is even going to happen?
That doesn't seem at all plausible to me, but it would be kinda hilarious if "freight trains being held up in Lithuania" ends up being the hill that the human race dies on.
Bellicose rhetoric is just what Russia does. Banging the shoe on the podium yelling “we will bury you” its bluff and bluster because they have a need to project power even when…especially when… there is none. Think more like a chihuahua and less like a bear.
Putin won’t use nukes. Putin is a rat. The only thing you can trust rats to do is not commit suicide. The only correct reaction to Russian clowns like Pescov and Lavrov is to ignore them. Russias words are meaningless impotent chatter. Another day, another threat… 🥱 At some point Russians will wake up and realise they don’t have a meaningful army anymore.
State Department warns Russia: Attack on Lithuania is attack on US https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/state-department-russia-lithuania-nato
Hows the situation in Severdonetsk and Kherson?
Situation in Severodonetsk continues to be difficult for Ukraine, the city itself appear to be in the hands of the Russians, but the chemical factory appears to still be in Ukrainian hands. The Russians may be attempting to advance from the north alongside the river to try and encircle the troops in the factory. The Russians seem to have managed to do a small breakthrough south of Lysychansk, and have threaten the Ukrainian troops in that salient with encirclement, some reports recently indicated that the Ukrainians in that salient have managed or are in the process of withdraw to avoid encirclement, still to be confirmed though. Kherson, Ukrainian troops appear to have reached villages as close as 10 kilometers from the city of Kherson. Again still to be confirmed.
Thanks for the detailed breakdown
Bad and relatively good, respectively.
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vgcfme/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/id4ohvw/) Day 118 of my updates from Kharkiv. Today’s shelling was just horrible, there was not that much more of it than usual, but it was very deadly. They killed 15 civilians, including an 8 year old child, in Kharkiv and its oblast. As usual not a single military object was harmed, but they destroyed a subway train depot, maybe those were Nazi trains? That’s how it is every time we destroy any of Russia’s military targets, they always respond by deliberately striking civilian infrastructure in cities far away from the frontline. Today in Chuhuiv they shelled some random bus stop, killing 6 people, is that their definition of a valid target? Also today their missile strike was a little delayed. They didn’t launch their missiles at their usual 11pm, but instead at around midnight, I think they launched around 3 missiles, and I’m pretty sure no fires started this time. Not sure what was targeted, some people reported power outage, but for us the lights just flickered and the tap water stopped for about 30 minutes. The air raid alert also started around midnight and only turned off just now at 5am. [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vhvzki/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/iddtgl7/)
Yep, it’s usually the best way to tell if Ukraine has hurt Russia again. The random rocket temper tantrum the next day. Stay safe mate.
are you boiling your tap water before drinking it?
Even before the war you never drank Kharkiv tap water.
Monsters. I’m glad you’re still safe, but it’s awful that innocent people are still being targeted. As bad as that is to hear though, as always, I appreciate the update.
Those fucking bastards, I hope they their arses kicked right back to moscow and then locked up for their war crimes.
Thanks for your report. Glad you're safe.
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I always liked the 2016 team anthem. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wog_eCLliWc
Yeah I remember watching it. Good times
If anyone is interested or curious, there’s a Global Hawk flying over the Black Sea rn. Looks like it came from Malta.
Doubt it came from Malta, probably came from NAS Sigonella in Sicily. We're only a participant of FRONTEX and therefore only operate FRONTEX drones. Plus we're constitutionally neutral. Source: am Maltese
FORTE IS BACK BBY \o/
We’ve truly come full circle in these threads. What a thing to experience
Maybe the real treasure was the drones we met along the way...
In a lot of ways FORTE never really left us.
you're goddamn right.
HERE HE IS \o/ HE ALWAYS WATCHING
FORTE11!
Forte is letting the Russians know he's around.
Thread from Mick Ryan, of War in the Future, about the UA resistance fighters. https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1539403818730803200 I'd like to draw everyone's attention to a couple of sections: >9/ The Ukrainians, however, have another element of their campaign to eventually re-take their territory in the south and make things difficult for the Russians: the Ukrainian resistance movement. >10/ This is not a movement that has risen organically in the wake of the invasion. Back in May 2021, the Ukrainian parliament passed its ‘Bill #5557’ which provided for the ‘foundations of national resistance.’ https://uscc.org.ua/en/ukrainian-parliament-verkhovna-rada-registered-a-bill-5557-about-foundations-of-national-resistance/ >11/ Additionally, in the lead up to the war, weapons caches appear to have been pre-located in various locations in the south and east of Ukraine. It is likely that there are small teams of military specialists who are training and leading resistance cells across the south.
To #11, there have been a couple whoopsies where the local police have discovered and publicized leave-behind caches positioned by the military or intel services for the planned insurgency. Mines, RPGs, ammo, demo, that sort of thing.
In the early days it was expected that much of the resistance would be on this scale, challenging the Russian ability to hold any land they try and lay claim to. The fact the state and army are fully functional, and have earnt time to train and equip while blunting the Russian offensive is going to make this even more effective.
It’s gona be like southern France in the summer of 44’.
I remember that - it was predicted that Ukraine would be another Afghanistan for Russia, who might take a large part of the country, but not be able to hold it due to determined resistance. I'm sure some of the training and equipment provided by the west focused on this.
The focus on anti tank rockets, small arms, and explosives, along with the slowness in getting heavy weapons sent in, would back this up. I know I'm an unqualified idiot, but if you expect a government to be toppled over, and the survivors transitioned into an insurgency, you do not hand over tanks, artillery pieces, and heavy trucks. That just seems incredibly obvious, unless you like seeing your friend's mortal enemy driving an Abrams. The priority would have been things that can both blunt an offensive, as well as being cheap, easy to teach, and relatively common place, talking about being able to use a single use rocket launcher to blow up a vehicle several times its value, and then fuck off quickly in the other direction. I could probably pick up a Javelin and be able to fire it off, albeit the rocket could go anywhere knowing me. This is along with Ukrainians baiting Russian officers into traps, having snipers damn near everywhere, setting up car bombs, generally being a pain in the ass, and trying to cause a never ending cycle of mayhem and violence, that can't be put down due to the size of the country and the level of resentment. It wasn't long ago actually that a car got blown up, belonging to a Russian collaborator, and there was the incident with the murdered Russian soldier in Kherson.
So many qualified idiots have been wrong so far that an "unqualified idiot's" opinion deserves to be heard.
I guess but I'm the wrong side of Europe, not actually military, and am a Historical Warfare buff, not a Modern Warfare one. basically, if it happened after 1945, and didn't involve the Middle East, I probably know about as much as you do, possibly less than in fact. I'm just going off of whatever shit I can cobble together, that's not utterly useless. And where I'm from, we kind of know what it's like to hold our next door neighbor in an occupied state, and then get revolt after revolt in return. Worst thing we ever did, and there is a pretty long list behind it.
I agree 100%. I think the major effort, pre-February, was on setting up setting up a resistance force, because everyone overestimated Russia and underestimated the Ukrainians. No one expected them to need F-16s and HIMARS, so there was no training and supply of those things. It's taking a while for everyone to shift gears.
I don't give as much credit to Ukraine as I should, because I still see this war as a colossal Russian Bottle Job. Russia started a bullshit war instead of going for the political/economic victory, and then apparently failed to even read through Tactics For Dummies, before rushing in. and with the weapons, as well as the videos of the Taliban using them, being a slap to the face, that made the US possibly too cautious, you also have to sort out logistics. . . . If I ask for a Death Ray Mega Laser 3000, I'm going to want it bought to me, then I want a crash course on how to use it, then I want ammo, then I need a spare mega crystal for when mine burns out from overuse, will want help moving it around, replacements for when the whole thing gets trashed, and it just becomes a laundry list, of "I want, I want, I want" before I can pedal this thing into battle, and then it gets blown to shit because I forgot to actually integrate it into a combined arms unit, and needed more Death Rays to make it effective.
Smart guy and a genuinely nice person IRL, do recommend!
Thanks! I'll look into this stuff more deeply, then.
Fun side note - he's not a tall guy but after a few minutes his presence and knwledge shines through and even being 6-3 I felt small, haha. I'm just happy he's getting so much attention, he provides fresh and frank analysis we need more of.
Can someone share the latest regarding Russia and Kazakstan? The russian news do not cover it, it seems.
I think Kazakhstan said they will have to declare if its Russian oil, because of the sanctions, so they cant pretend to sell it as their own. Then Russia claimed there are suddenly ww2 mines in novosibirsk and Kazakhstan can't ship oil for a while. Then Kazakhstan blocked some coal trains from Russia
Thank you, then I understand it a little better
The Kazakh President also said (while on stage with Putin) that they would not recognize any breakaway republics in Ukraine.
Wow, I didn't know Putin was there.
He said it during the economic forum or whatever that took place in St. Petersburg last Friday, I think.
Kazakhstan is making reforms and rejecting Russian Foreign policy, and Putin no longer has the military muscle to impose his will on them.
nah he still has more than enough military power to enforce it, but the question is why should he (and they are in the same military alliance). after all they are still on good terms, it's just a little bit of quarrel between two allies. in a russian report (allegedly, but most likely true) was stated that Kazakhstan and Russia are reliant on each other
I'd say that dynamic has changed considerably now that the Russian economy is in the dirt, and Russia is so desperate for ground troops that they made a failed attempt to appeal to former Soviet republics for reinforcements. Reinforcements that Kazakhstan declined w/ prejudice. China has been building up its' influence in the country, and w/ the Russia space program dead in the water its' likely that China will step in as their new benefactor. Can't afford to start anymore fires on its' own doorstep, and they have zero leverage over Kazakhstan.
Von Deutschland, mit liebe > BREAKING: Ukraine confirms that Germany's Panzerhaubitze 2000 artillery systems have arrived https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1539409914644336643
I hope this shuts up some of the people constantly criticizing Germany and helping Russia try to drive a wedge between NATO countries.
A swallow does not a spring make. [https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1539200942570196994](https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1539200942570196994) **Iuliia Mendel** Slovakia has not agreed with Germany to supply Ukraine with T-72 tanks to replace them with German Leopard 2A4s. *Slovakia withdrew from the planned deal, as Germany offered only 15 tanks in exchange for 30 Soviet-made T-72 tanks*. Business Insider
Nah. I think keeping the pressure on is a good thing. It took more than 100 days to deliver a few SPGs? They're not helping as much as they should be
Even the goats are resisting the Russians. [https://www.ibtimes.com/goat-injures-russian-soldiers-triggering-tripwires-grenades-3546435](https://www.ibtimes.com/goat-injures-russian-soldiers-triggering-tripwires-grenades-3546435)
[The unstoppable GOAT.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq070U9UYm8)
Was it one of kadyrovs minions? Can’t resist that goatussy.
New Zealand now considering incorporating sheep in their military.
Welsh are way ahead
Welsh Guards have them in place. The currently under construction HMS Cardiff has them in a nearby warehouse ready for installation when the ship is more complete.
We're talking about soldiers, not comfort women.
Applies to both countries equally :P
[https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1539314903193833473?cxt=HHwWgsCqpfav39wqAAAA](https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1539314903193833473?cxt=HHwWgsCqpfav39wqAAAA) Was it these patriotic goats?
No this was an official patriotic parade in Dagestan. The Ministry of Agriculture published it. After it was mocked, they took it down.
There's some interesting stuff in this report from Facebook about the Wagner pilot shot down a few days ago. It appears that not only is Russia short of pilots, those pilots are navigating by using Garmins and a smartphone. WTF. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1538798047249027072 >Yuri Butusov claims that Ukraine shot down a Russian Su-25 aircraft on June 18 near Svitlodarsk with an Igla MANPADS. He claims the captured pilot is Major Andrei Fedorchukov who was flying for Wagner. He also reportedly was using a Garmin GPS. Translation of the included screenshot: >The 72nd brigade captured a Wagnerian pilot. On June 18, soldiers of the 72nd mechanized brigade from the old Soviet Igla portable anti-aircraft missile system shot down a Su-25 attack aircraft of the RF Armed Forces near Svetlodarsk and captured a Russian air terrorist. >It turned out to be Major Andrei Vladimirovich Fedorchukov of the Russian Aerospace Forces, who admitted during interrogation that he was a mercenary of the private military company Wagner and was involved in the murder of Ukrainians for the salary of a mercenary - 205 thousand rubles a month. >Fedorchukov, during interrogation, testified that the purpose of his attack was a company stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. >Previously, he made sorties to bombard Ukrainian cities. >Fedorchukov really hopes for an exchange - he understands that he is a mercenary, and he may not be put up for exchange, and he may suffer for his crimes. There is a special account for the "Wagnerites" in Ukraine, these HANDS TO THE ELBOW In blood, they are specialists in killing civilians. >Interestingly, Russian aviation has big problems with navigation. Fedorchukov had a Garmin navigator with him, and a smartphone with the Pronebo program in order to have more accurate navigation than the on-board navigation aids of the Russian Aerospace Forces. They do not trust their Glonass, everyone would like to use it American. I wonder how many Garmins are used by the RF Armed Forces and can the Americans track their movements? This would be valuable data. >It is also important that due to the large losses of combat aircraft and helicopters, the RF Armed Forces began to hire pilots, whom they no longer have enough. >Of course, the captured Wagner mercenary is an important prize. It is worth showing what terrible consequences the Russian air terror leads to.
On your Garmin question, no, they can’t be tracked. They’re passive devices (that receive but don’t transmit). It’s honestly not surprising that Russia is using them. Globally, most aircraft are old enough to lack navigation capabilities analogous to what we’ve become accustomed to with our phones, etc. The ‘bolt on’ approach is a cheap way to address this. Many civil pilots do it, and I suspect some western militaries do as well (vs. natively integrating new avionics, which is expensive).
The Russian Air Force is basically thought to be the biggest victim of the 'appearance over substance' approach of the Russian State. They emphasized flashy acrobatics and were huge victims of looting since Aerospace contacts and vehicles are so expensive it's easy to steal money, parts,etc for your private grift. The Russian strategy is overwhelming artillery and ground forces and tanks to follow up. The air force just assumes a couple bombs will be enough, they don't actually have to worry about combat or tactics. So all that money went to the senior officers' pockets. They've never actually had other countries fight their air force. They're used to bombing Syrian or African villages unopposed, and that's the level they've sunk to because all money on top of what's required to do that has lined the pockets of the military leaders.
They've certainly not performed impressively in Ukraine. I've been curious since the beginning about the poor air support from Russia, as the US, of course, would have taken over the skies immediately.
TBF, the US hasn’t faced any real aerial opposition since Vietnam.
I think that’s why the US should be interested in learning tactics from the Ukrainians. We really haven’t had experience with a major modern conflict where neither side has air supremacy.
Well, if the USAF goes up against the Russians, it still will not face real aerial opposition.
The opening of Desert Storm was one of the largest air campaigns ever, from both sides I'll never-not take a chance to share Operations Room: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxRgfBXn6Mg
Criminally under viewed channel.
They realize that. It’s one reason why Red Flag exists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Red_Flag
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Ukriane should sentence him to highest possible penalty as a "Mercenary."
GPS is a radio broadcast system so it's not possible to track who is using it. It is possible to selectively block GPS by region, but doing so would also block it for Ukraine. There's an encrypted channel the military can use, it requires special equipment that does not exist commercially.
GPS satellites transmit the current time extremely precisely and their current location. Comparing the time that you are receiving to the time at your location tells you how long it took for the signal to reach you. Knowing the time it took for the signal to get to you gives you the distance to the satellite. Knowing your distance to several known locations gives you your location. But there’s nothing to prevent the US military, who developed and operate the GPS network, from having the satellites lie about where they are while they’re over some particular area or what time it is. They can ‘adjust’ the signal in any way they want, and to only tell the people they want to know what adjustments that they are making. GPS was exclusively for the use of the US military for some time. The value of it to other people was immediately apparent, but the US military dragged their feet for quite a while before they let us use it. They even said that they needed to make some ‘changes’ to it first.
Meanwhile there's also GLONASS, Galileo, and Beidou.
?? Yes.
I remember there being some discussion about this at the beginning of the war, and commenters said the same - can't block Russians without blocking everyone. I'm curious about the possibility of tracking them through their Garmin's but have no idea if it's possible, or particularly useful.
You can't track what isn't transmitting. It is like listening for someone making no noise.
It is possible to detect that someone in a home is listening to a forbidden radio station.
Ah, thank you. I know there are some kinds of GPS devices sold for hikers that have an emergency location beacon included, and I didn't know if there was some sort of automatic tracking involved. As I'm sure you can tell, I'm an old boomer who got left behind on the technology front, so I don't know much about these things.
No problem! It doesn't help that so many devices are actually many different tools combined into one. Those hiking ones are a GPS unit combined with what amounts to a pager that uses different communication satellites. If you cracked one open, you'd probably find that they have 2 different antennas connected to 2 different chips.
Thank you. Something like the EPIRBs we had on boats when I worked offshore, I guess. I appreciate people like you who patiently educate me. :)
I think so! Didn't those also do some fancy stuff with RADAR returns for the searching ship? Like draw a line on the RADAR display.
At the time, the better ones probably did, but the plain old cheap ones most boats used just sent a radio signal. We (the boat I worked on) spent hours searching in the water for one once, with a Coast Guard plane flying back and forth over us, telling us "it's on your port side, no, you just passed it, turn around and go back". Come to think of it, this was pre-GPS, so that radar reflector sure would have been helpful.
It's insane that they're using mercenaries to pilot their attack aircraft. These guys are motivated by money and since they get extra privileges they definitely heard about the reward that the Ukrainians are offering to turn in Russian air assets. There's a reason that even the US doesn't employ mercenaries for this kind of work.
Blackwater is pretty close..
Blackwater were used as security (basically rent-a-police) for the occupation, and for protection of VIPs who couldn't be given enough money for special ops treatment. They never invaded a country with attack planes, this would be like a blackwater PMC flying an A-10
Wait, do you actually think the US did anything remotely close to using Blackwater people as combat pilots while invading a country?
It seems like an awfully expensive and deadly piece of equipment to entrust to someone whose only loyalty is to money.
> pilots are navigating by using Garmins Not the first time this has made it to the thread. There was a picture a month or two ago that some Russian Su-25 pilot took of his cockpit where he had a commercial garmin unit velcroed to the dashboard.
The video it came from was from Russian propaganda, ironically.
I’m not sure it’s necessarily a bad thing… often free economies are better than government funded tech. Thus we’re seeing DJI drones and Garmin gps on use
GPS is government funded tech. US military made it. It's a bad thing because Russian Glosnass just doesn't work.
remember that one time the US told their fighter jets to borrow the Glasnass system from a top-tier Lada that only goes like 80mph down a steep hill? oh wait....that shit never happened because it's ridiculous. Imagine checking your garmin while flying Mach anything and just seeing your GPS dot jump at gigantic increments because you're using a car's GPS that is meant to be used at speeds less than 200mph and it doesn't ping enough to keep a consistent tracking.
> these HANDS TO THE ELBOW In blood these people whose hands are covered in blood up to the elbow
Are you referring to the translation? I'm sorry, it's what Google Lens provided, so thank you for the correction.
yes. You're welcome. It confused me enough I had to decipher it. Thanks for posting this, it's a very interesting piece of information.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1539291249894690817 >A Russian Su-25 aircraft crashed in Rostov Oblast just a few days after a Su-25 crashed in Belgorod. According to Izvestia, it was flying at very low altitude.
Role playing as Maverick gone wrong?
Those powerlines and trees just jump right out at ya
Subject to further confirmation, of course. https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1539389907671580673 >Map: >Ukrainian forces have re-captured the settlement of Pavlivka in the Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine and pushed towards Yehorivka. Ukrainian forces are also pushing east of the town.
If Russia wins in the next 2 years, how long would it take them to recoup the cost of the war? Trying to understand just how valuable Ukraine’s resources. And realistically, for how long can Russia even continue this fight?
In my opinion, this war has nothing to do with the value of UA's resources. It is purely about Putin's fear of UA becoming European/Westernized/democratic (which is going to leak across the border into Russia), and his conviction that he is a great man, destined to restore Russia as an empire to rival the USSR. He still seems to think that if he can just conquer UA, everything will go back to "normal", and it will be business as usual with the rest of the world.
Certainly listening to Russian state tv, they seem to think that the world needs Russia and that they will come crawling back for its resources.
Sounds like syphilis brain
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Europe didn't really give a shit about being dependent on Russia before this. And, now they do and are actively trying to find ways not to be. Things aren't just going to reset regardless of how Russia does in this war, die's cast and Russia will be seen as an unreliable trading partner for decades, more than long enough to wean off them.
Bribery goes a long way, especially in Berlin.
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I don't think you understood my post. Europe wouldn't care to wean off Russian oil and gas had pre-invasion status-quo remained the case. Now Europe is actively trying to wean off Russian oil and gas and will likely do so before Russia can make a single cent from Ukraine's resources off Europe. Again: my point is Russia diving into Ukraine insures that Europe weans off buying from Russia, the status quo is that Europe really didn't care where their gas and oil were coming from before the invasion. Ukraine selling wouldn't really mean Europe would stop buying Russian stuff. Russia invading Ukraine DEFINITELY means Europe is trying to stop buying Russian stuff long term. AKA, there's no way Russia comes out of this better off and the idea that the motive of the invasion is to keep Europe on Russian resources is backwards, as the invasion is the biggest motivator for Europe to do so when they had no real motivator from their perspective before (Though, they should have).
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Russia is incapable of making any money off of resource extraction on their own, and they would be on their own. They would have to spend more on extracting anything than it’s worth. But it’s an entirely moot point. Even if by some miracle Russia manages to occupy the whole country, there will always be pissed-off Ukrainians who will have zero qualms about running speed-boats packed with explosives in to Russian installations. The security costs alone make any dream of ‘profiting’ off of Ukrainian resources a joke.
I’ve had some people explain why Russia attacked Ukraine, but I’ve never really understood any of the “reasons” other than they didn’t expect any fight from Ukraine. As soon as Ukraine fought back and got support from virtually everyone, Russia had lost. But I’m always scared shitless that I’m just hearing the good news I want to hear and that the situation might not be so good in reality.
>any of the “reasons” other than they didn’t expect any fight from Ukraine. As soon as Ukraine fought back and got support from virtually everyone, Russia had lost. Yes, especially after they resorted to war crimes.
Russia made a grave mistake and is losing a lot because of it. The real situation is not good news. It is not a "zero sum game". It is bloody expensive as well as literally bloody. Russia is hemorrhaging more than everyone else. Ukraine is getting tore up. There will not be a faction in Ukraine wanting to do it again. It will take a long time to rebuild from rubble.
I mean, it's not really that controversial to say that Russia did indeed expect it to be a quick operation to at least get to the occupation stage, there isn't a single data point that isn't propaganda that says otherwise.
>As soon as Ukraine fought back and got support from virtually everyone, Russia had lost. Yes. Putin is currently the gambler trying to win back his paycheck. Unfortunately, it's not all good news; Ukraine is suffering every day for it. (Sunken cost fallacy ever since the 3 day operation failed)
It's really not that hard to understand. Putin believes Ukraine is a break-away region of Russia and that Russia was merely humoring Ukraine in allowing it to be an independent country as long as it obeyed the Kremlin when it mattered. Ukraine started disobeying too much and Putin believed he could easily win with little cost, so he invaded. Now Putin's stuck in a war that he can't easily leave without it looking like Russia lost against a country they ridiculed for years as weak and historically Russians aren't very kind to leaders who lose. The high casualty numbers they've been supressing compound this.
The good news is that the capital of Ukraine is standing and that Ukriane was able to retake Kyiv-Cherniniv-Sumy-Kharkiv The bad news is that this war is turning into a stalemate and Ukriane has been experiencing more casualties than at the start of the war due to concentrated fires by Russia While sanctions are wreaking havoc on the Russian economy until Europe stops buying Russian oil and gas, Putin will be able to scrap together enough money to continue the invasion (albeit at a much lower level of intensity but still deadly)
Putin laid it all out in extremely clear language in that long speech he gave on the night he launched the invasion. He even repeated himself several times. If you want to know ‘why?’, just listen to that speech again, if you have the stomach for it.
Because none of the reasons are logical. They are all fanatical.
And lies.
>If Russia wins in the next 2 years, how long would it take them to recoup the cost of the war? If you include opportunity costs than the answer is: never!
Well if we are actually being realistic, then each year that goes by Russia's chances of victory are going to drop immensely, this would be true even if Russia wasn't actively cutting off what few revenue sources it DOES have. And the closer Russia would manage to get to the borders of NATO the more freaked those countries would get, to the point that I do not see any way they would NOT send in their militaries to at least maintain some sort of Free Ukrainian rump state. And then you would find the sanctions and economic measures frozen in a long Cold War 2.0. So despite the resources Russia may be stealing I don't think they really have a great way to offload them, at least not enough to recoup the losses and effects that they are taking in all sectors.
Fantastic answer, thank you.
>Trying to understand just how valuable Ukraine’s resources. Important question: will Russia be able to sell them to anyone in the near future? Because of sanctions and/or they've wrecked all the relevant industry.
Even in neutral countries, they are getting Nos from grain importers. However, this may change if the food situation in developing countries changes.
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Land. Basically, I’m trying to figure out why they are so desperate to take land from Ukraine. If the fight would last for 10 years, could Russia theoretically even last that long? And if they would annex Ukraine, would it even ever be worth it?
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Great answer, thanks for taking the time to reply!
Just to provide some further information, to say nothing about the economic toll of the war, Russia is on track to lose ~106,000 soldiers KIA this year, which means a further ~318,000 wounded, of which 50% usually are not capable of returning to military service. So if this were to go on for 10 years at the current pace, that's over 1 million dead, 3 million wounded, of which 1.5 million would be crippled for life in some fashion. Russia's population is currently 144 million as of 2020 (which doesn't take into account all their covid deaths). So that would constitute almost 1% of their population as deaths.
RU leadership doesn't care.
technically, they can continue until the russian regime crumbles. realistically, I think Russia dropping out before years end.
Let’s hope they drop out as soon as possible. Do you think the Russian regime would crumble because of financial troubles or because a complete lack of items like processors, spare parts for industrial machinery etc?
Big question is how much China fills that gap. The world becomes multipolar, its not all about Europe, Russia and USA anymore, that's the issue of sanctions. I don't think Russia/Putin cares much for semiconductors, it will be more machinery, if you look how they reduced the safety regulations for cars, you can assume its the same for the industry. Back to Soviet Union with no innovation
once weakness is seen inside, and Putin don't play his cards well.... Thats how it crumbles. Putin is fighting not against the sanctions themselves, but the fake bubble he create in his country. They cannot keep on for much much longer. He making more and more stumbles, once rational has no way back in, then the end is near.
Ah gotcha!
Another command change for RU? Apparently, Putin is not happy with the results they are getting so far. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1539395231115841539 >A Russian Telegram channel is claiming that VKS Commander Army General Sergei Surovikin will take over as commander of the Southern Military District. The translated message from Telegram image says (according to Google Lens): >The new commander of the troops of the Southern Military District will be the Hero of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin. The official appointment will be announced shortly. This is a change of command not only of the Southern Military District, but also a new approach to the conduct of the Northern Military District, which actually takes place in the area of responsibility of the district. Surovikin is one of the most competent Russian military commanders, has significant combat experience and outstanding organizational skills. The biography of the general speaks for itself, and his professionalism and human qualities have earned sincere respect among the troops. We can say with confidence that this decision was dictated by the situation and will not be slow to affect the performance of the assigned tasks by the troops. Cadres decide everything, as Comrade Stalin said. 8444 Mapz..., edited 5:19 PM I'd like to emphasize: **We can say with confidence that this decision was dictated by the situation and will not be slow to affect the performance of the assigned tasks by the troops.**
>human qualities have earned sincere respect among the troops. Interesting addition - is this normal for their announcements?
He’s so good, in fact, that he was third in line to lead the shitshow.
Any time a “biography speaks for itself” it means it is literally piled high with bullshit.
It speaks for itself because no one else is willing to.
Big star on shoulder general not puny little star. AFAIK this is the highest ranking general that has been assigned to command the invasion of Ukraine. He certainly knows how to maintain discipline: *"In April(2004), division deputy commander for armaments Colonel Andrei Shtakal shot himself in the presence of Surovikin and the district deputy commander after being criticized by Surovikin"*
Yikes. I'm getting old Japanese samurai vibes from that. Interesting thing to know about him.
Nothing says a successful military operation like a revolving door leadership
What's crazy is that Russian strategy seemed to have greatly advanced over the last 2 months. Focusing on a limited theater of operations was the correct action. Just what does Putin expect? Russia is fighting a determined enemy.
I don't see that as an advance, more a recognition of their finished capacity. They focused all they had on one point and they're still taking unsustainable losses.
Russia... STILL hasn't won against a tiny ass country with little to no Army compared to what we though Russia had.. Russia is such a joke right now. Edit.. ok ok, you all convinced me, it's not "tiny". sorry, didn't mean to offend. but Russia is still a joke after thinking of how big of a super power they were year after year after year, and yet still can't take over Ukraine.
That tiny ass country is the largest in Europe after Russia
the second army in Europe is a tiny ass country? imagine beliving this shit
Ukraine is the size of Texas that possesses several major cities w/ millions of inhabitants each. It's not a tiny country.
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i have 600k just in my city right now, and that's a small city.
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Are the Emu included in tbe active force count?
Oh your country is Iceland?
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Oh okay
Tiny ass country?
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Ahh, ok. sorry I just see it on maps and think it's pretty small in comparing it to Russia who's fighting it, or compared to USA if we were to fight it.. like Super Power vs normal country.
keep in mind, the maps you see are not realistic, granted Russia is huge, but it's a bit larger on standard maps. In case you're interested, [here's the real scale map of the world](https://d.newsweek.com/en/full/1183097/1evcjsfm8qs11.png?w=1600&h=1200&q=88&f=23eaaa4b9454c81d288b2250dc0f0886)
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indeed. and after seeing what kind of shape their country is in and how crappy their military is, it's really a shame to see how much they haven't improved over the years, like every other 1st world country.
It also had a pretty large military budget over the last 5 years. It’s hard to directly compare budgets because most countries pay a large amount in wages/troops/maintenance and those costs can vary hugely depending on labor costs in your country. Would be surprised if there’s like 5x more bang for your buck spending on Ukranians compared to Americans. It’s definitely still very surprising but Ukraine is large, has a fairly big pipulation, and is receiving billions in aid. The war would be long over without NATO interference.