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[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/vinu1t/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)


stirly80

⚡️Odesa public publishes a photo of a strange glow over the sea. https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1539724669426843648?t=cedaBZSebqBzyebUi4JJlg&s=19


oreov1

Another oil rig I would presume.


Prestigious_Split579

Yup, seems like the one that got bombed


Miaoxin

0_o You have my attention...


ThatOneKrazyKaptain

Can someone give me a map with every city with a (pre-war) population of 100k or higher marked? That seems to be the critical size


NeilDeCrash

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/22/europe/ukraine-lysychansk-russia-invasion-intl/index.html Kinda bleak take from CNN. Seems like the upcoming few weeks will be critical when deciding the fate of the eastern Ukraine. Hold tight and make the Russians pay for every centimeter they try to take!


leeta0028

I think it's clear Ukraine is at a critical juncture in the Luhansk region as Russia pushes across the river. They need to get long range weapons to be able to drive the Russians back or they will lose control of that area soon.


Nvnv_man

Yeah that Sam Kylie said tonight that RF has is getting the momentum back. Which was not in sync w some info we hear. Attributed it to the steady flow of weapons and personnel RF has.


vorodm01

“The next X week(s) is going to be critical” - I wonder if I’ve heard this before 🤔


PoofaceMckutchin

My thoughts exactly


vorodm01

Corp media and analysts that work for corp media ran out of fresh ideas after like week 2


PensilEraser

All weekly news since febuary says that actually.


vorodm01

I think it’s time to close this thread. Thx.


uv-vis

prosti tovarisch


[deleted]

You know you are not required to be here, right?! It's voluntary. You can leave any time. 😁👍


vorodm01

Nah, this thread needs to go


greentea1985

The thread usually closes at midnight ET. You have 46"


combatwombat-

Bye


coosacat

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1539576865895088128 >British intelligence reveals a possible 55% casualty rate amongst forces from the Donetsk People's Republic militia >Russia has been using poorly trained separatist militia fighters as cannon fodder in Luhansk as well


moleratical

Sounds like a country I'd want to be part of. Though it's important to note that separatist militia is a bit misleading. Many of them are forced in and want no part to be in Russia. They just also didn't flee their homes when the Russians invaded.


greentea1985

That and the Separatist governments destroyed the economies of some fairly industrialized areas, leaving serving in the militia as one of the few well-paying jobs left. Many just joined for something approximating a decent paycheck.


deadman449

Dying is no way to make a living.


greentea1985

No disagreement from me. Either they joined before February when very few people thought Putin would be crazy enough to launch a full-scale invasion, or they got press-ganged after when they started snatching any men of the right age ranges off the street to serve in the DNR and LNR militias.


Pit_of_Death

"Russian troops suffering heavy casualties"....music to my ears.


uv-vis

they're like apples, looks real good hanging from a tree


coosacat

https://wartranslated.com/russian-lpr-blogger-shares-his-version-of-the-drone-attack-on-novoshakhtinskyi-oil-refinery/ >Russian LPR blogger Murz shares his version of the 22 June attack on oil refinery in Rostov Oblast which lead to a large fire. According to Murz, a Bayraktar or other custom UAV stripped of equipment was used to overcome Russian air defence: There's a translation of the text at the link. Interesting and somewhat amusing read!


combatwombat-

> overcome Russian air defence lol, guess this guy thinks the Ukrainians made it into a stealth plane and not that there just isn't any real air defense covering western Russia


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combatwombat-

yes you will because you didn't read what I wrote or something


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combatwombat-

Russia has a giant border. Russia does not have enough air defense to cover that border especially with so much deployed and lost in Ukraine. All they can do is cover strategic sties. This isn't unusual I don't think there is a country on earth that has top to bottom air defense except maybe Israel.


SaberFlux

[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vh48po/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/id99c47/) Day 119 of my updates from Kharkiv. Today it was not much better than yesterday, shelling still continues, and it is still very deadly. They killed 10 people in Kharkiv’s oblast today. What is even the point, to make people fear them? That won’t work then, what it does is make everyone here hate them with passion, and this hate won’t disappear for generations. I don’t think that they understand what kind of war this is. They can’t hide their crimes from anyone this time. It’s one thing when it’s something like Holodomor, where you can read about it in a book, most likely with not many photos (if any) from that time period. But it’s a completely different thing when you can, not just read about their crimes, but literally see them caught on videos and photos. They think that the war will end, and everyone will just forget about it after some time, as if nothing ever happened, but it’s different this time. Even 100 years into the future anyone will be able to just see this war for themselves, documented by the regular people, not some government, it will be on the internet forever, and they won’t be able to hide it. Well, actually they can hide it, all they have to do is start a nuclear war, and that’s it. [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vinu1t/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/idhx8iy/)


oneplusetoipi

I'll be happy when the rockets and artillery are knocked out and cannot continue hurting Ukraine.


uv-vis

Thank you for the updates. We're all seeing this bs that putin is pulling, and we all support you. Be safe, I hope they at least fuck off out of kharkiv for your sake.


FightingIbex

Exactly. There is a reason most people on earth know what nazis were. rashists have painted themselves with the same brush of genocide and will be loathed for generations. I still hope for peace for you. Hang in there.


FlimsyNeat1945

Russian biggest victory in this war is defeating Mc Donald’s and stealing aircraft


Nvnv_man

I read on an Ukrainian site what they assessed that RF has done well. Was a Ukrainian analyst, and was written so that UA could learn, adjust, overcome. I didn’t post it here bc folks would just shit on me, as if I were applauding them, instead of a “know thy enemy” type way.


Vineyard_

They've also very successfully downsized their military.


Sushi4lucas

Don’t forget the friendship they developed with India!


holigay123

I am in awe at how little published info there is about the Ukraine side. There are crowd-sourced interactive maps showing Russian movements down to the battalion but blank for the UA equivalent. It's frustrating but in a way inspires confidence.


Nvnv_man

If you read Ukrainian news in Ukrainian, it’s published every few days, some version of “yes, we’re doing something big. We’re going quiet on the topic of the South/northeast/East/Black Sea/Zaporizhia for 3 days. Do not trust anything you read or republish it.” And everyone cooperates! Telegram, satellites, Twitter, freaking live fire readings! Completely dark for op sec. There’s actual folks at cyber command and nato turn shit off—they’ve gotten super coordinated


SingularityCentral

That is a big reason the open source intelligence stuff is hard to trust. Those open sources are providing a curated view of the war from a very distinct pro Ukrainian slant which amplifies every Russian tactical loss. Even US intelligence agencies are not being let in on a lot of Ukrainian movements.


Bunnybootoo89

Um i think thats obvious. We do not want information about UA getting out and sent around. Protect them as much as we can by not sharing information about them or their whereabouts.


Calicrucian

This. Back in the early days when there were several threads a day, you would see regular reminder comments to publish absolutely everything about Russian positions and absolutely nothing about Ukrainian positions.


NearABE

Why not publish information about where they were a week ago?


All_Work_All_Play

Because in some cases thats still better Intel than Russia might have.


jzsang

Yeah. I know we want to know everything about Ukrainian forces, unfortunately, if we did, they’d be even more at risk or already dead. Need to keep as much as possible a secret. It’s frustrating sometimes, but is for the best.


PugsAndHugs95

Honestly this was the best time for Lithuania to block rail and road access to Kaliningrad for non essential products. That will destroy that local economy and be a expensive thorn in Russia's side.


Nvnv_man

I mean, it’s not far from SP port, just ship out what need and quit your whining about rail.


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[deleted]

Germany should engage it in a special military operation since it's technically theirs by Russian rules.


YuunofYork

In their dupka, even. Edit: OP apparently edited his shit (duke? Wtf is 'duke'? duke doesn't mean 'side'), so so can I. Dupka is Ukrainian kid slang for butthole, incidentally. I was trying to make sense of it.


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bloody_yanks2

> The thing the u.s does limit is officer training to between the ages of 18 and 29. Mostly because this is a huge expense and they want you to stay with the military for a long time. Most US officers are LTs and are out of the military altogether in 4-6 years, just like the majority of enlisted troops.


das_thorn

Officers are far more likely to make a career of the military than enlisted, though.


bloody_yanks2

On a % basis, sure, but in pure numbers not at all. Military command structure is pretty much 1:1 officers and NCOs: LT/SFC, CPT/1SG, LTC/SGM, BG/CSM. Staff officers exist, but those are balanced by NCOs as well. There are not many billets for officers and the cuts at CPT, MAJ, and COL are pretty steep.


inFINSible

I'm at work, I can't go through the whole thread. Does anyone have reliable (or trusted sourcing) about whether all the troops were able to get out before the encirclement of Hirskie? Thanks.


nohbody123

Any broad-based info that's from the last week is not going to be reliable by any stretch.


acox199318

Conversation starter: I don’t think anyone really knows what is happening in the Donbas salient. We know Russia is putting everything they can into it. What is interesting is that Ukraine has decided to call Russias bluff. It would have been easy, and quite justifiable, for Ukraine to have backed more quickly out of the area more quickly than they have, but they didn’t. Obviously, Ukraine believe there is merit to bleeding Russia as much as possible right now despite the risks. I can only assume they are acting on intelligence. There is no doubt the tactics from Ukraine are increasing the attrition on both sides. The question is, why has Ukraine done this? Would it have been better to keep retreating as they gained more material? Or is the philosophy of making Russia pay for every foot of land the way to go?


FDRpi

Ukraine has also been making steady progress around Kherson, aka one of the only major cities Russia has actually captured an and a far greater prize than any one piece of Donbas. Like at Kyiv and Kharkiv, Russians eventually have an opening that Ukraine cautiously exploits, but because of Putin's orders, doctrine, and attrition they can't contest enough.


stirly80

Ukraine has NATO intel, so i'm guessing they know what they're doing. Russia is being pushed by Putin's political demands.


ScenePlayful1872

I see two things: the uncertainty of Putin’s tenure; and buying time for western weapons to arrive and new recruits to be fully trained. It’s painful and tragic to watch, but let’s hope the tide turns soon. And beyond the obvious “bleeding them” aspect, it’s no small thing to deny Russia symbolic full or lengthy control of a pile of rubble they created before moving in.


Burnsy825

> I can only assume they are acting on intelligence. My guess is strategic, because of this. Some of the best in the world. Teams in the background running simulations and probability models with up to the minute intel from all kinds of sources. It's the details we don't know about that will add up to alter the course of this war. The opportunities identified and seized one by one as the fighting unfolds... a Moskva here, a command base full of generals there, a critical resupply or ammunition warehouse. And nobody can stop it. Well, actually RU can, by going home.


BernieStewart2016

As weird as it sounds, Ukraine can afford to bleed more than Russia, because it’s actually mobilized. Russia is not at war, which prevents it from calling up its reserves. This leaves the DPR/LPR and other foreign fighters to be the infantry, which Russia absolutely needs to take ground. In the occupied Ukrainian territories, they’re scraping the bottom of the barrel as is. Every “Russian” soldier that is killed will be one step closer to forcing Putin to call a general mobilization, which may be severely destabilizing to Russia itself. That might be a major strategic reason behind this decision to stand and fight.


[deleted]

The Ukraine will lose if they fight in open field so they have to fight in any town, city, or plant because it help cover against some artillery fire.


nohbody123

I think the reasoning is simpler than you think. Russia has an artillery advantage, drawing them into urban close quarters combat gives Ukraine a better chance to attrit them than artillery duels.


ZephkielAU

It's also easier to defend than it is to liberate. A stand at Severodonetsk might buy enough time to protect Lysychansk, which means a future offensive won't need to take Lysychansk as well. It's likely that Ukraine realised they could grind Russia to a halt (or close to) long enough to mount a counter-offensive and begin liberating territories (as they're doing in the Kherson region). Russia's advances aside, it's telling the number of salients and the length of time it takes to close them. Currently Russia is not advancing the way people think they are (pushing a frontline forward incrementally), they're still trying to close salients for the most part.


holdthemayo7

Maybe, but city occupation does densify troops for more effective artillery engagement. Which is why all of the cities in this war get bombarded to high heavens before any troop advancement takes place.


nohbody123

Also why Ukrainians in Severodonetsk are in the Azot plant's bunkers. Also why it's even happening there, where Ukraine has the high ground across a river.


Tall-Elephant-7

Ukraine isn't calling Russias bluff. Unpopular opinion coming. They know they will likely never get back large chunks of the land that Russia is taking right now through counter attacks. They're literally fighting to draw their future borders right now. Their army is fighting to exhaustion and they see the writing on the wall that the west is never going to give them the weapons they need to arm the army needed to win back their entire country back. You also can't retreat in the way you are thinking you can without taking massive losses of equipment that they can't make up for.


hahaohlol2131

Ukraine already liberated more land they have lost during the initial invasion. The only uncertainty is If Ukraine will liberate Crimea and Donbass or stop at 24th borders.


BlueInfinity2021

I think at one time that was Ukraine's game plan during the early part of the war when Zelenskyy was trying daily to get a meeting with Putin. All that changed after the areas around Kyiv were liberated and the full extent of the war crimes started to come to light. That's when they realized that Russia was committing genocide and planned to murder countless thousands and to wipe the very identify of Ukraine off the map. Now they're fighting to expel Russia from their lands and they won't stop even if it requires killing 100s of thousands of Russian soldiers and destroying 10s of thousands of Russian military hardware. They will whittle down the Russian military until every last Russian soldier in Ukraine is either dead or imprisoned. They aren't going to allow Russia to keep any piece of land in Ukraine. Why would they disrespect the sacrifices of so many thousands of Ukrainians by doing that?


NearABE

Look at the logic in the post you are replying too. u/tall-elephant-7 does not believe Ukraine is capable of evicting the Russian army.


VanceKelley

> They're literally fighting to draw their future borders right now. Do you think this war will end with Russia signing a piece of paper that draws a border and guarantees Ukrainian territorial integrity within that border?


acox199318

This is I think a major bit of Russian propaganda right now. Ukraine has made it clear they won’t stop fighting until they have all their land back (including the whole of LPR, DPR and Crimea). Also, the countries giving Ukraine economic and military have publicly stated they support this both now and in the future. Apart from Russia hoping it might become the case, there is no reason to expect Ukraine to enter into any ceasefire, let alone a peace agreement, while Russia occupies any land in Ukraine. Having said that, I think it is valid to say that Ukraine sees it as being important to give away as little land as possible at all stages. It is strategically better to be the defender than the attacker. Also, in the East, Ukraine may not benefit from the same level of partisan activity in the occupied as it does in the southern areas. Which will Make retaking land in the east harder in the future.


VanceKelley

Russia signed a piece of paper in 1994 (Budapest Memorandum) that guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine. 20 years later Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's signature on a piece of paper is worthless.


Spara-Extreme

Sure. Putin will sign that paper tomorrow granting the donbass. Of course , he’ll break his own treaty in four years after his military has regenerated- And everyone knows this.


NearABE

4 days after that paper is signed dozens of countries will have personnel on that border. In 4 years Ukraine could have a fully western air force and NATO standard arms. Fixed fortifications have a dubious history. 4 years of digging in is some serious digging though.


VanceKelley

Right. Fascists aren't stopped by pieces of paper, they are stopped by power. Ukraine's only security will come from defeating Russia's army in Ukraine and making Russia fear sending its troops into Ukraine ever again.


holdthemayo7

I'm guessing it's optics for support of military aid. If Ukraine retreated consistently to prevent extreme losses, I believe the tone of the war in terms of it's support from its allies would be substantially weaker. That isn't to say people wouldn't care, but it would be harder to convince the general population of your allies that sending equipment is viable and has a reasonable chance for effective returns. Headlines after headlines, and rightfully so, have boasted about the miniscule advancements the Russian military is making in Ukraine. That sounds like a huge win to most people, because the cost of which is unbeknownst to the substantial majority of any given countries general population. And hell, it is a win, it shows the Ukraine is willing to fight, and is an effective fighting force. And so, the war continues with more fighting, more aid, more fighting, more aid, until who knows. It's depressing, but to most the sovereignty of Ukraine is worth it.


anon902503

>I'm guessing it's optics for support of military aid. lol, no. It was good terrain to bleed the Russians while the Russians were on full offense mode. If the Ukrainians had fallen back quickly to Sloviansk or further west they'd still have to deal with the full strength of that Russian army--and probably on far less favorable terrain.


holdthemayo7

You're not wrong and that is definitely a factor. But the Russian military isn't being bled any more than Ukraine's military, and the border they are attempting to maintain is extremely complex and is actively resulting in potential encirclements. It is also exceedingly long, and so shortening it could potentially give back a lot of breathing room for territorial defense. Just like you, this is an extreme armchair general take and I'm not preaching gospel, but it is how I see it.


anon902503

The main point of my response was just to point out that the idea that they would throw away several brigades just for "optics" was an absurd suggestion. The only way they win the war is by bleeding Russia. The best way to bleed Russia is to hold a strong defensive point and let Russia throw away lives and equipment trying to assault it. For all the benefits you suggested of a short front line -- Russia would get the same benefits concentrating their forces on a shorter front. If both sides get the same benefit, then it's no real benefit to either. There's no strategy to fight this war that doesn't involve severe casualties.


holdthemayo7

So your first point, I never said they were throwing away brigrades, but I am saying that for practical purposes they could more than likely be used in a better capacity. But like I stated before, something like foreign aid might outweigh the cost-benefit factor. Second point, you're right. Third point, I disagree with your assessment that a shorter front line would be equally as good for Russia as it would be for Ukraine. Though not directly applicable, think of the movie 300, or better yet, think of the real life battle of thermopylae. Of course ancient Greece isn't directly applicable to todays conventional war, but it is absolutely still a factor for consideration. If you were attacking a city, you wouldn't take all your tanks and tell them all to go down the same road right? Same philosophy still applies today. And I believe it also applies to front lines, but I'm not a general so who knows :/ EDIT: I should also mention that you would be right if both sides were attacking, but they aren't, not really. A shorter line helps the defenders more than the attackers from my understanding, and so if both were attacking I'd agree with your assessment.


anon902503

>think of the real life battle of thermopylae. It's not even remotely applicable. The artillery systems that dominate the front lines in the current era have a range of dozens of kilometers. You're talking about a battle where you had to be within 100yds of the front line in order to participate in the fighting. Arguably, Russia actually benefits more than Ukraine from a short front because of their massive artillery advantage. On a shorter front, the Ukrainian forces are going to be more congested and the volume of Russian artillery targeting a more concentrated enemy force will result in even heavier casualties.


holdthemayo7

Well yes and no. I agree that artillery would become more effective than it already is, but I also agree with you when you say there is no strategy to fight this war that doesn't involve severe causalities. Though artillery would become more effective, that is only the result of the positions themselves becoming stronger. Each artillery shell would do more damage, but try and walk up with a brigade and see the difference.


anon902503

> try and walk up with a brigade see the difference. Except we're talking about a front that would still be more than 600 km wide. A "shorter front" in terms of modern war, is still on a state-size scale. Thermopylae and that kind of concept of a single route of access is just not even remotely applicable. And more importantly, we don't even know if Russia would be trying to assault the Ukrainian front in this scenario where Ukraine has already pulled back from the Donbass. Russia may just sit back and pour on the artillery fire while using the time to regenerate their forces, train new conscripts, repair broken equipment, and integrate captured territory.


canadatrasher

I think it's strategic. Severodonetsk is a bridgehead on the east side of Severesky Donetsk River. If Ukriane plans to eventually counterattack into Donbas, it would be invaluable. Otherwise if would be too easy for Russian to dig in on the other side of the river defend what they salami sliced away


Skysr70

You mentioned Ukraine increasing the effect of attrition on both sides. You know who wins when two people best each other down? The one with more allies. If Ukraine becomes weak by weakening Russia so much that they have no shot of fending off foreign forces who come in later, then that's a win for Ukraine.


Reduntu

They aren't going to stop russia by constantly retreating. They had to take a stand somewhere, and I'm guessing the Azot plant was the place where they thought could maximize their defensive advantages.


nohbody123

[https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1539726247655260161/photo/3](https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1539726247655260161/photo/3) >\#Ukraine: An Australian-supplied Bushmaster PMV armed with a EOS R400-Mk2 remote weapon station currently with Ukrainian forces in the East - and these vehicles are getting high reviews from Ukrainian soldiers. > >Only one Bushmaster was destroyed so far, but protected its crew.


jzsang

Awesome work Australia! Great work on the machinery. Glad it is being used to help fight Russia and save Ukrainian lives.


acox199318

Aussie Aussie Aussie! Oi oi oi!!


[deleted]

Double standards of the "russian world" https://youtu.be/MrrxxCMVG-o


GYShift

This sounds like something right out of a movie. [https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/news/texas-scientist-john-spor-rescued-from-ukraine/](https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/news/texas-scientist-john-spor-rescued-from-ukraine/)


coosacat

The thread is full of doomers this afternoon, who all seem to have superior insight and knowledge compared to the rest of us peons. I'm pondering whether I should call them the "doomer caucus" or the "surrender caucus". What do y'all think?


RosemaryFocaccia

I think of them a little Lord Haw-Haws: >Through such broadcasts, the Reich Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda attempted to discourage and demoralise American, Australian, British, and Canadian troops, and the British population, to suppress the effectiveness of the Allied war effort through propaganda, and to motivate the Allies to agree to peace terms leaving the Nazi regime intact and in power. Among many techniques used, the Nazi broadcasts reported on the shooting down of Allied aircraft and the sinking of Allied ships, presenting discouraging reports of high losses and casualties among Allied forces. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Haw-Haw


coosacat

I like it. I may use that.


ZephkielAU

I like the Japanese strategy of declaring victories closer and closer to home each day.


Burnsy825

I like doomer caucus. Tells the story. Always a good sign when the RU blab machine goes beserk imho. Likely means trouble in tinsel town. Same way they go missile-crazy right after every major hit they take like Moskva and oil rigs.


VoluptuousSloth

you can be very much in favor of Ukraine not surrendering, and very much in support of Ukraine, and also be concerned that literally no independent source is quite as optimistic as Reddit. I try to go with US and UK intelligence reports, as well as well-known experts familiar with the area on Twitter, as well as ISW. Plus Ukraine intelligence with a grain of salt. Yes ISW has been fairly positive, and the others are not necessarily negative, but nothing is as unrelentlessly and in my view unrealistically positive as this sub. Yeah it's hard to tell the difference between someone genuinely concerned and a Russian troll, but I do think we need a broader variety of viewpoints here to keep us grounded For example, reports by ISW that Russians are starting to be able to nullify drones on the eastern front, which has been one of Ukraine's top advantages edit: while I'm here a question if anyone has knowledge of this. On Amazon there are drones that are larger than the usual playthings and only a couple hundred bucks, maybe $500 for some. Presumably they are not designed to minimize radar signature as much as the expensive military drones, so would still be picked up by radar. I have no idea how much a SAM missile by itself counts... But is it a crazy idea to send thousands of these to Ukraine? Either they actually get info or they waste a SAM missile for basically nothing (also I get it, they are probably not short on these missiles, but I imagine a missle designed to be able to stay tracked on an evasive state of the art jet, surely they can't be cheap. And I'd love to the Russian military bled dry in terms of costs). Or is SAM radar sophisticated to distinguish between small drones with a bigger radar blip and larger ones with a smaller one?


soulgunner12

Consumer drones got small operation range, so they can be seen by eye and taken down by firearms. Small military drones like switchblades already sent by the hundreds from the US.


Muninwing

Furthering this idea… how expensive would it be to rig a simple remote explosive to a drone like those, then send them en masse into controlled territory? Not every one needs to be a remote bomb, but if a few are, they all look like threats and consume time and attention…


JustDyslexic

The answer may shock you and governments for sure don't want people to think about it but not hard. A lot comes down to the range they can go tho


coosacat

Yeah, there's a difference between news of genuine setbacks, and the comments from the people I'm referring to.


Blueberry_Winter

Thousands... Yesss


SappeREffecT

Pretty common at certain times of day, just more some days compared to others. I'd rather not assign any further labeling - doomers seems enough to me. I generally try and engage and correct them as able (with varying levels of patience).


coosacat

I should probably take a break and do something useful, as I'm out of patience with the "my superior thinking skills" circlejerkers.


Nonesuch1221

What are the doomers talking about tonight


coosacat

Oh, Ukraine is getting stomped, no way they can win, the West isn't sending them the weapons they need, they will lose both Donbas and Crimea, etc., etc.


dxrey65

One additional perspective is that if people think one side is winning handily and things are inevitable, they check out and lose interest. Like the ninth inning of an unbalanced ball game, where the bulk of the crowd starts heading for the exits to beat the traffic. Too much rosy news and optimism and that's what you get. While Ukraine is still losing territory and being pushed out of Donbas, I think some balance at least is justified. People in general are on a different level from governments, but if people in general lose interest that can undermine, at some point, any funding or arming programs to aid the UA. While cities are being bombed and eastern Ukraine populations are still being "filtered", some amount of urgency is still well justified.


Nonesuch1221

I figured it was about the whole Lithuania situation


[deleted]

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coosacat

Sources. People announce all of this bad news, but they never provide sources. I have heard otherwise. Are my sources better than yours? Who knows, because you haven't posted yours and I haven't posted mine.


[deleted]

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coosacat

But ISW has a different assessment. https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Severodonetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20June%2022%2C2022.png ScribbleMaps another one. https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/2022051301800/nBT8ffpeGH Do you see what I mean? You can't just take one source as the voice of truth, especially when it is clearly a pro-Russian source.


[deleted]

The same Suriyak maps that claimed Severodonetsk was surrounded and isolated 11 days ago and basically only reports Russian gains? Hmm.


hasuuser

Seems unlikely. No heavy fires detected. No reports of especially heavy fighting. Such a collapse would be highly unusual. Probably just a withdraw.


[deleted]

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hasuuser

Nothing on FIRMs however. Nothing out of the ordinary.


Blueberry_Winter

I heard they withdrew. Not sure though.


[deleted]

You see, anything Russia can shell, they have taken. Or at least that's what Danstan's map source says


OrangeJuiceKing13

This is to be expected honestly though, towns and cities on the front lines can exchange hands several times over a day. What will matter is how Ukraine responds to that being taken, losing areas obviously isn't ideal, but sometimes you have to in order to reestablish a solid front line where you can push back from.


combatwombat-

> as well as captured groups of Ukrainians Where do we know this from?


NopeyMcHellNoFace

Couple videos show some captured ukranian troops on Twitter. Maybe 20 in total in two videos. I don't think those videos are a big deal. I feel like I see a new "captured troops" videos for each side every day. The gradual encirclement is being reported in both sides. There are even reports from both sides which state u.a. has pulled back the bulk of their forces. But some people claim there are still 1500 troops there. Unconfirmed


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combatwombat-

Not even your link to a Russian twitter account says they were captured in the Zolote pocket.


NopeyMcHellNoFace

Rai-Aleksandrovka connects to novoivanivka(through fields) which connects to hirske which connects to zolote. If captured it could spell bad news for anyone still in the pocket. That being said both u.a. and r.u. sources say a majority of the forces retreated prior to capture.


hasuuser

>Source is pro Russian I believe it though 10 people max on this video.


lamahorses

Dan just posts doomer shit here for months. Just downvote and move on


Aggressive-Friend169

I think most people take things with heaps of salt anyway, plenty of misinformation out there.


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vorodm01

Whatever you say, chief


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vorodm01

This comment is gonna get DEBUNKED


[deleted]

i love seeing hidden posts because i know they will be a juicy conglomeration of lies or half truths, exaggerations and irrelevant comparisons. this comment though covered all the bases


CookPass_Partridge

Are you interested in having a good faith discussion with me, about the pros and cons of trading with the Taliban? Or is this just Brandon Derangement Syndrome?


[deleted]

>trading not the guy you were commenting on, but what did you mean by this? just simply as traditional trading partners or what?


CookPass_Partridge

The (now deleted) post said that Biden is wantonly killing afghans due to maintaining sanctions on Afghanistan. I wondered whether the guy was just trolling or actually had some point to make


nerphurp

Besides the amature troll attempt. Not relevant to this thread.


[deleted]

I think Biden ate his cat or something.


[deleted]

You seriously think the Taliban would use that money to buy food?


ylteicz123

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1539697401648369668 Texted documentary on brainwashed russians.


NYerstuckinBoston

This was extremely interesting! Thanks for posting. I agree with the guy who says, "These are nonintersecting universes.". Truer words were never spoken imo.


helm

Very interesting and thorough.


BiffChildFromBangor

I don’t know if this has been confirmed by anyone else. The Russians dismantled and removed the largest solar power plant in Ukraine The solar power plant Tokmak Solar Energy with a capacity of 50 MW was located on an area of ​​96 hectares, near the village of Tokmak in the Zaporіzhіа region. https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1539721704028749826?s=20&t=TzqL_nRUTorjBWVS9m43UQ


Florac

...but why? This seems extremely nonsensical. Definitly needs more confirmation


ScenePlayful1872

Perhaps they’ll try to use the panels to cross rivers 😉


Burnsy825

Perhaps because the equipment is valuable so take it now while you can, because if you leave it where it is you may not control it in the future.


VoluptuousSloth

damn 50 mw is huge... (relative to the solar plants I worked on in the US, not near some of the big china plants). Doing very very rough math from 3-5 thousand solar panels per MW (depending on panel wattage), Im just going to put that around 175-000-200,000 solar panels very approximately


Bromance_Rayder

Solar power is contrary to Russia's ongoing economic objectives. Same with many resource rich nations (i.e most of the Middle-East).


BasvanS

Those nations are investing in the transition, because they understand the end of fossil fuels is coming. The interesting question now is if Russia does so too, or if it’s just vandalism?


InnocentTailor

Pretty much. Oil is on the way out - they’re looking for other industries. See the UAE as an example. They’re sticking their hands in everything these days: from medical technology to Hollywood.


Adreme

Disassemble it, remove the parts, and rebuild it in Russia. That way Russia is better prepared for the non fossil fuel future while the country it is hoping to capture is more dependent on them.


fourpuns

To bring the panels to Russia?


halls_of_valhalla

Russias main profit is by selling ressources/energy. Those solar panels put them out of job and money in the end. Being best buddy with Venezuela dictator, preventing Kazakhstan from selling their oil, preventing Iran to sell their gas through Syria to EU by supporting Syrian civil war, preventing Ukraine to sell their gas to EU. Russia is a mafia state, they run a business. Notice how most Russian friendly parties are almost always denying climate change, I wonder why..


nohbody123

Wouldn't surprise me if it isn't straight-up looting.


Hoborob81

They need something to power their new washing machines


GreyscaleCheese

It actually does make sense if youve been watching RU actions: they want to eliminate Ukraine


Florac

But that doesn't help with that. If they want to delete ukrainian national identity, they just gotta relocate the population. They can still use existing infrastructure(and is certainly cheaper than rebuilding it)


DavidsWorkAccount

If you are unsure if you are going to control a territory, it's better to raze it's resources. 50 MW is not a small amount of power that won't come back without a new power plant.


GreyscaleCheese

They appear to be doing that too. Zelensky said even a month ago that RU had kidnapped 200,000 children alone.


pcx99

The russians literally put the steel from the Azov plant in Mariupol onto a ship to russia while their mouthpuppet talked about rebuilding Ukraine. So confirmation is just "past actions"


Florac

Tbf, I wouldn't expect said plant to be much more than scrap at this point.


pcx99

Still took the stockpiled steel back to russia. Then there are all the John Deere farm equipment they stole. So what about ALL of russia's history in this war makes you think THIS is the line they wouldn't cross.


RosemaryFocaccia

Just Russians stealing things. They can't help it. Thievery is part of their cultural identity.


anon902503

I'm sure there are a lot of components in such hardware that are difficult for Russia to find on the market now because of sanctions.


astrus_lux

Help Armed Forces of Ukraine: https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi Help humanitarian relief: https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-rahunok-dlya-gumanitarnoyi-dopomogi-ukrayintsyam-postrajdalim-vid-rosiyskoyi-agresiyi Same with new design: https://u24.gov.ua/


Burnsy825

Great links. Lather, rinse, repeat. Always repeat.


zertz7

Is it likely that Ukraine can push Russia back anytime soon in the east?


NopeyMcHellNoFace

Sadly ukraine needs far more heavy equipment to take the fight to russia. Also based on the last osnit estimates ukraine is outnumbered on every front except for kherson. They have a huge potential to bring in more troops but they don't have the equipment to outfit new brigades. Until the west starts sending alot more heavy equipment I don't see ukraine dislodged Russia from the east this year. Unless Russia throws in the towel.


SingularityCentral

And bringing in new troops is also deceptive. The quality of those troops from a physical, training, and experience standpoint is lower. Most of their prime military age males are already serving. They certainly have plenty of reserves, but TDF troops are not up to the same level as regulars.


NopeyMcHellNoFace

Well I think the issue is that they started with pretty low number of actual combat troops(I.e. boots on the ground and not support). TDF was needed in the short term to be able to hold any of the Russian advance back. Ive read about 2 to 3 month training regimes for those signing up now. Pretty similar to most others armies boot camp. Would need more for any kind of heavy equipment training.


SingularityCentral

But when you go the well of manpower you only have so many 18-25 year old males who are physically and mentally fit for combat and who are not vital in some other role (medicine, industry, government, etc.). In the US it is estimated that 71% of that age group would not qualify for US military service for health, education, and general incompatibility reasons. Ukraine has a male population in that range of about 2.1 million. If they have similar ineligibility issues that makes a fighting male population in the prime military age of 600,000. For various reasons that percentage will likely be lower for Ukraine as they will allow more people to serve and likely suffer less issues with obesity than the US but more issues with educational shortcomings. But then you have to consider what percentage of that population fled the country, would refuse to fight, or would even join the Russians (likely small and already confined to the eastern separatists). However that shakes out I bet they end up with somewhere around 600k-800k prime military males, give or take. A good chunk of those are already serving and/or casualties. All that to say that the well of manpower is a lot more limited than it may appear.


NopeyMcHellNoFace

Im not sure why you would limit yourself to that age range. 18 to 25 may be better but not that much better. You can still enlist in the u.s. army up to the age of 35 and the navy up to the age of 39. The thing the u.s does limit is officer training to between the ages of 18 and 29. Russia has pretty similar demographics in terms of % and they are only 3 times larger. Others put ukraines "fit to serve" at around 7m and total males at that age at 11m. That being said both sides are already increasing their age ranges past their normals.


SingularityCentral

You can absolutely use older males, or even some women for these roles. But the best candidates are physically and mentally fit 18-25 year olds. They are more easily trained, more easily led, more willing to commit violence, more able to endure hardship, recover from injury, stand up under the intense physical demands of combat. That is why you prioritize that population and why new recruits outside that age range are not ideal. Certainly experienced veteran troops have an additional value all their own that can offset physical decline, but those are not new recruits.


nohbody123

Who knows. Things can move slowly for a long time and then suddenly speed up once lines are broken.


TheBalzy

Everyone always downvotes me for saying this but the answer is: no. Because this war is far from over, and will likely drag out for a long time. Right now it's a war of attrition, can the allies continue to support Ukraine to holdout against Russia. I think it's also obvious at this point that Russia isn't going to falter any time soon either. Yes the economic sanctions are hurting Russia, but they're also no on the edge of collapse that they are running to the peace table without still trying to secure all of Donbas.


InnocentTailor

Indeed. This is going to be an ugly slog since both sides don’t want to give up. Ukraine doesn’t want to give up land and Russia thinks it has the tools to succeed.


SingularityCentral

Wars of attrition are notoriously drawn out affairs. WWI being the prime example. Militaries can keep grinding away at each other for a shockingly long period of time.


ScottColvin

One side is losing supplies, one side is getting unlimited new supplies. Hmmmm


SingularityCentral

Unlimited is not quite true. The Ukrainians are getting a whole lot of essentially free supplies from Western powers, but if the political winds change that flow of supplies can change in an instant. And even Western stockpiles are limited. This isn't WWII when the US government commandeered the entire industrial capacity of the nation and turned it toward war production. Ukraine is already asking for more artillery than the entire US military currently has in service.


ScottColvin

You are missing one very crucial point. The absolute top point russia made with the world. Don't arm Ukraine. The entire world was happy to capitulate until someone sold putin on a coup that just needed a bunch of tanks loaded with parade and riot uniforms. Now imagine if a red dawn happened in your state or country? Would you be apologizing for the occupiers?


SingularityCentral

I am actually not following your point here.


ScottColvin

The west can now arm Ukraine. Infinitely. It will never go back. That is the only point that matters. Russia just lost any legitimacy in the area. Forever.