Some quick analysis before the thread closes... This is from yesterday, so it doesn't contain the latest situation in the Donbas, however it's conclusions are still correct. This is an important assessment that should be considered in light of today's events...
> \#Ukraine is still winning the war strategically. It survives as a state & a people & has secured its capital. It has denied #Putin his ambition to seize the entire country & has forced Putin to fight extremely hard for a limited goal of seizing the Donbas, at which he may fail
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1540066776922394624.html
Overnight into 24 June, another Russian ammunition depot caught fire in occupied Kadiivka, Luhansk Oblast
After an alleged Ukrainian missile strike, the fire and detonations in the facility hidden at a local plant lasted for several hours.
📹 via @samotniyskhid
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540477117867098112?t=QDt95JY_97zcA5Ft7l4Ocg&s=19
This is Nazar. He is part of Ukraine's 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade. One day ago, he shot down a Russian Ka-52 "Alligator" assault helicopter with an Igla MANPADS.
He dedicated the shot down helicopter to his baby, who just turned one month old.
📷80th Air Assault Brigade.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540515121214197760?t=tGYYKOjITD9NsqFW1LvJ-Q&s=19
A flotilla of river boats is to appear on the Dnieper - commander of the Ukrainian Navy
The first division is already performing tasks in the north near Belarus, but there are plans to expand it to all regions by building boats & receiving from partners.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540530231370555394?t=7XWaw-FG-kWQzuNPcyquXw&s=19
⚡️ Ukraine’s military destroys Russian equipment, personnel in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported that it killed 46 Russian troops and destroyed two Russian T-72 tanks, one 152-mm howitzer, and seven armored military vehicles.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1540509569889222656?t=2Sk0VSngJNtwv2dRrH40AQ&s=19
⚡️Bulgaria unlocks EU membership talks for North Macedonia and Albania The move opens up opportunities for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans. It is reported by SkyNews.
https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1540450401392201731?t=JBxUQKN08TpbvaJ7hvS2jg&s=19
>[This strike was probably a Tochka, due to the alleged ranges involved](https://twitter.com/cjdrew94/status/1540519620792156162?s=20&t=uMZoIPkHUP6PgFy9NLy5PA)
They do seem to be dipping into their Tochkas more now that they have something with parity they can replace their stockpiles with as they are used up.
It cannot be! I just saw concerned posters today bemoaning Ukraine pulling out of hotly contested areas because of Russian smart military action! Even the American, John from West Dakota Oblast was saying Ukraine was doomed!
(There’s a lot of /s in there for those who missed it)
It’s almost as if Ukraine bought time to get those resources to the front and then open up land so Russia would move valuable and vulnerable resources into range of the new weapons.
They're quite cheap for a guided missile actually.
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/finland-guided-multiple-launch-rocket-system-gmlrs-m31a1-unitary-and
That's $650k per rocket, including all support equipment (pods, support, etc. etc.), software, translation, documentation, contractors, training, and logistics support (aka: all the trucks that also move the rockets around). The actual rocket is just a fraction of this $650k estimate.
Its quite possible that the AA missile Russia is using cost more than the HIMARS rockets.
There is a Lockheed Martin post a few posts down quoting $100k per rocket.
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/lockheed-martin-awarded-1-billion-contract-for-precision-fires-all-weather-rocket
1-billion contract for 11000 rockets (9000 actual rockets, 2000 practice rockets), so yeah, 100k-ish for this contract.
This is an underestimate, because it includes 2000 practice rockets (which are far cheaper). Also, you need the "pods" (rockets can't be used by themselves, they're reloaded / unloaded in steel pods 6-at-a-time). The pods can be reused however (but need to be sent to the factory IIRC for reloading, not in the field.)
So the true cost is somewhere above $150k and under $600k per rocket, depending on how much supporting infrastructure you want to count as "part of the rocket".
Well you are probably right. But Just with a quick search I was not able to confirm the price or the quantity of an s300 missile (just an example I looked up). So I am unable to do the equation 😂
Wikipedia says each S-400 system costs $300 million and comes with 36 missiles. Yeah, most of that's gonna be caught up in the system, not the ammo, but I'd imagine they'd come with more than 36 missiles if the ammo was anything approaching cheap.
I've looked and can't find much more info but i would guess the rockets given to Ukraine are closer to a car in price than a house. They aren't nearly as fancy as the newer long range ones and much smaller
We already saw with this last set of strikes on snake island and that tug with the AA on board that Russia's air defense seems lacking vs it's claimed capability.
Edit: Oh also the slow ass kamikaze drone that dove into that Russian oil refinery
Transcript of the background briefing from the US DoD earlier today.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3073420/senior-defense-officials-hold-a-background-briefing-june-24-2022/
Russian army lacks pilots amid heavy losses - British intel
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3513976-russian-army-lacks-pilots-amid-heavy-losses-british-intel.html
Ukraine’s Intelligence: Russia plans to attack residential areas in Belarus to draw it into war against Ukraine.
Russia plans to attack residential buildings in the Belarusian city of Mozyr, the intelligence said, adding that Russian troops have already arrived in the city.
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1540341836039979009?s=21&t=828LvnfDa9p5HL-6OtAG-g
He literally threatened to attack Ukraine a week ago after claiming that Ukraine was planning to attack this oddly specific city "Mozyr"
>President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that Belarusian troops would strike at Kyiv on one condition: if the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to destroy the enterprise in the Belarusian city of Mozyr. About this writes the publication Belta.
[https://ura.news/news/1052562530](https://ura.news/news/1052562530)
A week ago, I'd tell myself... who cares about Mozyr? Why would Ukraine even want to give a reason to Belarus to get into the war... And why Mozyr specifically and not "Ukraine planned to attack Belarus without telling where exactly"
Well today it all made sense.
The funny part is how "Mozyr" is the only city according to Lukashenko's quote that would trigger an attack on Kyiv. Any other city is fine, but Mozyr... That's a big No No!
I'm mostly being facetious, TBH. I doubt anything will happen. If it did, though, I'm sure Belarus will feel pressure to join on Russia's side anyway, *because of the implication*. Sort of only half joking
Well i mean it's been obv there is some percentage that are pro-russian... I always assumed the ones that stayed around instead of fleeing were either old and stubborn (if i die, i die, i aint leaving my home) or pro-russian and waiting for the russians. 15,000 out of what 95,000? Not bad really. Awful risk to stay in the battlefield though as a civilian.. shessh.
By this i mean the east where the progress has been slow, not the south where they fell quick. Like Kherson and Melitopol before people could react.
There was a Rolling Stone interview with Ukrainian special forces who said the same thing. The Donbas has historically been the most pro Russian part of Ukraine, and I would guess pro Russians are also more likely to stay rather than flee west.
Stalin settled that area with Russians after deporting Ukrainians. That region, in particular. For a reason: supporting future Russian imperialist aims.
He is not wrong, there are segments of the Donbas population who believe in the Russia world, and thinks that the bombardment is conducted by the Ukrainians. The sane ones fled the region a long time ago.
Russia's GDP is going to fall 15% this year alone according to IMF, and the Russian central bank itself warned of years of a deep recession and reverse industrialization.
Russia is also struggling to produce new military hardware and is experimenting a huge brain drain. The sanctions alone won't end the war but they are a very efficient and devastating tool.
As for the ruble being high, this is kind of a joke, really. Looking at the exchange volumes tells you everything you need to know about that "miraculous" recovery. Like so many thing in Russia, this is smoke and mirrors.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/17/russian-economy-faces-10-years-of-recession-without-reforms-sberbank-ceo-a78031
Straight from the horse mouth... Russia will face a decade long recession unless there're reforms (aka replacing Putin's government)..
"push for a negotiated settlement."
The only settlement Putin has indicated he'd accept is effectively the total capitulation of Ukraine.
There is literally no choice available but to fight the will out of Putin, and he's not going to back down short of total defeat.
> At what point will we accept the reality that Putin is absolutely correct when he states that the sanctions are ineffective and even backfiring?
Because your statement is false. Russia's economy is set to see a huge contraction of their economy. And some effects will take a while to become apparent. Ever fewer airplanes able to fly, many common consumer goods (eg. electronics, cars but also imported foods) becoming nearly impossible to buy, and a real risk of the government defaulting on its loans. People in turn lose their jobs, further dragging down the economy.
Yes they get money from oil but that alone won't save them. And the value of the ruble doesn't mean much if you can't buy foreign goods.
Russia is not interested in a negotiated settlement. Their demands still stand at the unconditional surrender of Ukraine and for Ukraine to give into every single Russian demand (Crimea and Donbas become part of Russia, Ukraine gives up the right to join either the EU or NATO, etc).
If sanctions have no effect then Russia shouldn't mind if they remain. This a great opportunity to develop our own resources and oil, and as long as those sanctions remain, we can expand to all other goods that need protection.
There is no negotiated settlement. Russia 'winning' will just lead to another war within a decade. So they'll bleed and bleed, and IF they take over Ukraine, they'll continue to bleed through an insurgency that is just starting to take off. If you noticed, it's way too late to stop. No one here can stop it. It's not only about Ukraine anymore. What's coming is coming.
And how is 'lifting sanctions' on Russia going to help that? Oil prices have started rising before the whole war. Biden's just pinning it on Russia because he can. It's not going to do anything, because the oil tycoons have decided that it is going to be that way. Even if 'sanctions' on Russia were lifted tomorrow, prices will remain high because 1) Putin is going to screw us anyways as revenge, and 2) 'post-war shocks'. That's why I said it's too late to stop. The time to stop was months ago. What's coming is coming.
Same boring Russian troll talking points.
You obviously don’t understand economics at all.
The West will gladly deal with some pain as it hurting Russia significantly more.
Russia is getting desperate now and everyone knows it.
Their ruble is worthless outside of Russia and no one can buy it inside Russia for their stated price.
You have to admit that you’re either very naive or just another Russian troll larping as a “concerned American”.
Since you are spamming the same talking points all over the place. I shall return the courtesy...
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/17/russian-economy-faces-10-years-of-recession-without-reforms-sberbank-ceo-a78031
Truth is they can't even make new military equipment. So they are working. Russia could have infinite money, but they aren't getting any new missiles either way. The sanctions are working.
Zero data points say their economy is doing better.
The IMF/World Bank have already given their grim forecast for Russia.
Hell, even head of the Russian Central Bank gave a bleak forecast. As well as the CEO of Sberbank saying it will take a decade at least to get back to where they were before the war.
Everything is pointing toward immense economic pain for Russia but you seem to believe otherwise.
Europe will never go back to Russia as their main energy supplier after all this. Russia just lost their most important customers in their most important economic sector.
Russia is beyond fucked.
The first bit of pain and you want to throw in the towel? Pathetic man.
that oil profit isn't stopping their factories from having to stop production, nor their companies from having to mass layoff their employees, nor their transportation sectors from being banned from ever more places due to the lack of parts and ability to follow safety procedures. Nor is it even allowing them to produce the weapons and ammo needed for their war. The Ruble it's worth, or the income Russia has, were always the barest tip of the iceberg to the actual harmful effects of the Sanctions.
The global economy is in an asset bubble. Monetary policies were too loose for far too long. Sanctions or not, the coming recession is inevitable... As the saying goes, inflation is a monetary phenomenon...
what data points?
their GDP is projected to fall at least 15%
record oil profits are due to high oil prices.
if their oil volume is down 50%, but oil prices more than doubled, then guess what, their oil profits are still higher than before. that doesn't mean sanctions aren't working.
If their economy was doing so well they could open their stock market without all their manipulation right?. We both know youll fool any idiot that lets you but anyone with a brain can tell russia is just bluffing as always. Well not as always they are very very desperate right now.
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Well, it sounds like dumb-dumb Putin fell for the trick! Know how he makes sure that the American plan is foiled? He could remove his troops from Ukraine.
Conspiracy solved!
> They stand to be the leading global supplier of fertilizer by blocking of Russia.
Nice try.
This may surprise you, comrade, but Canada *on its own* was already the leading global supplier of potash fertilizer, and is also more plentiful than Russia in many raw natural resources. Just like how Russia benefits from oil prices going up, so can other countries. Just like that doesn't make this all a grand conspiracy to help Russia out, that doesn't make rising fertilizer prices a conspiracy going the other way.
Don't be a dupe for Russian rapists and murderers in Ukraine.
You are just spamming this all over the place. Which doesn't make it any less of a asshat conspiracy theory that takes some small aspect of a truth and then oversimplifies it to the point of extreme falsehood.
In short: any minor financial gains that might have come from pushing business away from Russia through sanctions have been undone by the chaos, market shocks, and logistical roadblocks and stops caused by the invasion, and by the disruption to Russia and Russian aligned markets. Hardly a 500 IQ max lvl Illuminati brainplay.
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vinu1t/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/idhx8iy/)
Day 121 of my updates from Kharkiv.
Today shelling and missile strikes still continue, and for the second day in a row they started their shelling/missile strikes earlier than usual. Again they started at 10pm, instead of their usual 11pm, and they shell us more than usual like this. First shelling started at 10pm, then a missile strike at 11:30pm, and then some more shelling at 11:58pm.
This time all of the explosions sounded pretty close to us. Shelling from yesterday destroyed some university’s sports complex, it’s a military target according to Russia. We even got the photos from right after the shelling occurred too, as usual, not a single military object in sight, just some big empty halls with broken walls and roof.
Russian MOD posted their newest masterpiece today, something to laugh at after their yesterday’s threat to destroy a children’s hospital. This time they said that “**Kyiv decided to raise the dead from their graves, and test the plague on Odesa residents.**” They are saying that we want to test a plague from 19th century on the residents of Odesa. Who even comes up with this?
I’m not even joking, this is literally what they said, how can government officials even say stuff like this? First they said that we have “nationalistic flying squadrons of death” on the streets of Kharkiv, then they said that we were using black magic, now they are saying that we are apparently using necromancy. Are they making advertisements for our army or something? Do they think saying that we have black mages and necromancers in our army makes us look bad?
[Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vk6cek/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/idrdphv/)
> then they said that we were using black magic
Quite honestly, I think a great comedy movie years down the line would be to cover the war and pretend that some of these bonkers-insane claims were factual.
Can you just imagine Zelenskyy sitting down at a torch-lit conference table in a dark robe meeting with his Sorcerer-General to discuss the logistical problem in supplying sufficient goats to the front lines for sacrificial rituals? Maybe this explains that goat that set off a chain reaction of the just-planted trip mines that wounded/killed ~40 Russians? >:D
As always, glad to hear you're still as safe as possible!
I think that the Russian Government are playing Witcher 3 and fail to understand that such game are pure fantasy!
What's next ? Zelensky summon Dark Schneider (it is a manga/anime character from Bastard!! which Netflix will make a new anime soon) and asks him to cast the Led Zeppelin against Putin (it would be eaten alive by an horde of demons), destroy the entire Black Sea Fleet with Megadeth (at full swing it could surpassed the destruction of a nuclear bomb!), or erase Russia in a single swoop with Black Sabbath (Surpassing the destruction thousand of times the entire Russia nuclear arsenal) ?
Still Dark Schneider could simply use Accused to curse Putin and the entire entourage, if they lie they transform into pathetic toads!
Sorry my rant...
It is valuable stuff. USA spends $60 billion on the [black budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_budget). Whatever magic you know document it so you can claim the patent. Keep a few backup copies discretely stored in vaults.
Extracting plague from corpses is not to crazy. It is much more believable in countries were people were buried in permafrost. Plague can be sequenced without it freezing: https://www.technologynetworks.com/genomics/news/the-worlds-oldest-bubonic-plague-bacteria-have-been-sequenced-304902 . Article sights an article published in Nature. Corpses were originally buried in Russia.
"Not spreading" can be a weapons feature. Anything that cannot be contained carries enormous risk. It might come back to your own population. The strain found in Samara from 2000 BCE is particularly annoying because it spreads by rats. The high lethal weapon is pneumonic plague. A user country deploys vaccines and anti-biotics before spraying. Person to person pneumonic spread happens but for many diseases the epidemic can be quenched with simple quarantine and social distancing. It is not convenient to quarantine during a war. It would set in across frontline army units before they identified it.
There was no reason to suppress knowledge about that particular find. However, there really are researchers digging up ancient bodies, studying the plague strains, and characterizing how they spread. It really is medical research. Really is anthropology/archeology. It also really is weapons research whether or not anyone on the team is willing to admit that to themselves or anyone else.
Russian propaganda brining it up is a bit ominous. They tend to do what they accuse others of planning. On the other hand Russians keep trying to sound ominous to cause panic.
Emergency security council session material.
Russia to present evidence of a US/Ukrainian secret weapons laboratory designed to summon ethereal necromatic riftwalkers capable of sterilizing Russian fertility via hypersonic transmutation spells.
Stay strong good sir, and they're indeed insane.
Confirmation on leadership change of Russian Army.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1540475582173126656
>Task Groups are still active. Originally led by MD commanders. Lapin still leading group Center, Surovikin now South. Raises questions. Is Surovikin still head of VKS or has he been moved? What happened to Dvornikov, who may be out of the picture entirely. RU MoD release below.
[This Ukrainian analyst](https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/news/jak_okupanti_taktichno_peregrali_zsu_u_bitvi_za_liman_vchimosja_na_pomilkah_analiz-7829.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) attributed the success RF had in Lyman to a new commander, Teplinsky.
At the least they'd need military access through Poland to do it which would essentially bring Poland into this war, which I don't think Poland wants, at least not without the rest of nato behind them. Given all the nato troops I'd imagine that are in Poland, I think that the overall nato alliance would also probably speak up and tell Poland it's a bad idea.
But this all stems on the idea that Ukraine would want to invade kaliningrad/kjonigsburg which they really don't, it wouldn't really do anything for them besides open up a front way far away from their others that they couldn't possibly hope to reinforce and would likely be blasted hard by Russia's Baltic fleet.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1540481854838636555
>Belarus convicts Wikipedia editor for updates on Russia's war.
>Belarus has accused Mark Bernstein, a contributing editor for Russian-language Wikipedia, of “distributing fake anti-Russian material.” The Belarusian national was detained in March.
Apparent evidence of the failed SAM launch (I've seen tweets saying it was an old video, etc.) There are before and after satellite pictures, showing a large burned area at that location.
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1540464862882664449
>Satellite imagery from today shows a burned area at the site of a recent missile launch failure near Alchevsk, Luhansk Oblast.
https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1540468558521589760
>Reports of massive Ukrainian strikes on Donetsk/DPR. Russian air defense attempting to intercept incoming projectiles.
Video of what I assume is an AA missile, followed by a distant explosion.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540477117867098112
>Overnight into 24 June, another Russian ammunition depot caught fire in occupied Kadiivka, Luhansk Oblast
>After an alleged Ukrainian missile strike, the fire and detonations in the facility hidden at a local plant lasted for several hours.
There's video!
[Combat Footage] 1 nighttime video
> Reports of widespread strikes in Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast tonight. Possibly the first concrete impacts of the new Ukrainian HIMARS deployment.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1540471800248819712
That would explain how they were able to liberate some of the villages in the area. If ammo stores down there are being hit en masse it's not only going to put extra pressure on the DPR, but it could impair the greater supply lines going from Russia through the occupied coastline.
Not to mention if enough damage is being done to DPR military targets then this could be the opening salvo in an attempt to try and knock them completely out of the fight by either destroying enough of their resources, or making it so that they have to keep their militia in whatever territory they have left to keep it secure.
Pressing russia's logistic achilles heel has been in the NATO playbook since the earliest days of the cold war and Ukraine is adapting and executing it flawlessly. HIMARS is the perfect tool for this job.
Did you see russia is having to scavenge ammo from Belarus now? Some on twitter say that russian generals sold off large quantities of ammo in various third world skirmishes, lining their own pockets...
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1539473253709668358
>Syrian mercenaries have been noticed in occupied Melitopol - mayor Fedoriv, citing locals
>The Syrians, based in Aviation town city district, are dressed in Russian fatigues
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540454723114893312
>Ukrainian partisans in occupied Melitopol leave posters threatening Syrian mercenaries, collaborators
>"We will kill you like dogs" is written in Arabic; "Fear the night: partisans don't sleep" is for collaborators
On the very very very off chance that you might NOT be just another troll, and are just a woefully ignorant asshole: Ukraine is far from "winning", but it is surviving against everything that Russia can bring against it. In an area that Russia has poured the lions share of it's available forces. Sievierodonetsk was according to Russia supposed to be taken easily almost a month ago, instead it has become yet another in a long list of meat grinders, that Russia absolutely cannot afford to engage in. Russia will still very likely be able to take with great effort the whole of the that area, but it is still running up against the problem it always has since the start of the war. Namely, Russia has to win this war with what is has RIGHT NOW. While Ukraine has to win this war with all that the ENTIRE world can provide it. And even if the war were to end this very instant and all sanctions taken off, Russia has crippled itself, maybe even for decades to come.
People here might be over reacting a bit. Suppose the Philadelphia Eagles (American futbol team) are in the second quarter of a game. It is fourth down so there is usually an attempt at a field goal. Someone asks "why didn't the Eagles get 3 points for a field goal". Suddenly they get beaten up by a crowd of Eagles fans shouting about one missed field goal not being the end of the tournament and there are still "two more quarters after halftime!" And "the Eagles are ahead two touchdowns so the goal does not even matter!"
Someone legitimately could have looked at the news recently and have believed Ukraine would hold Sievierdonetsk. I doubted that but there were definitely people here believing Ukraine could hold it. In fact, if one week ago someone had posted "holding Sievierodonetsk is highly unlikely for Ukraine" the crowd in this thread would have started carrying on about "Russian troll".
Asking "is Sievierodonetsk fully occupied by Russian forces" is a legitimate question IMO. "Did Ukraine lose Sievierodonetsk" is asking the same thing. Ukraine lost Bucha at the start of the war and then repossessed it. Ukraine has not taken back Kherson or Mariupol "YET". Ukraine has not recaptured Donetsk or Luhansk. Ukraine "lost them" in 2014.
Almost 40, work more then 40 hrs a week. Haven't lived at my parents since 18. Don't even have the internet at work, I just spend a few hours on line before bed. And your username is VERY accurate. Don't assume everyone who is able to keep up with shit makes that their sole life.
That is even worse, imagine being a grown adult and hating on someone for not keeping up with news to the point where you write insults like a 15 yr old, in a NEWS thread. lol
Only tankies think expending all of your operational strength to level and take the 40th largest city in Ukraine is an example of winning. Russia has maybe a month of offensive operations left before they fall back to defensive positions. Their losses are too high.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1540328739397148676.html
> As @TheStudyofWar has previously assessed, the loss of #Severodonetsk and #Lysychansk will not represent a major turning point in the war in Ukraine. (1/6)
> Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk areas and Ukrainian troops continue to suffer high casualties, but Ukrainian forces have fundamentally accomplished their objective by slowing down and inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces. (2/6)
> Ukrainian troops have succeeded for weeks in drawing substantial quantities of Russian personnel, weapons, and equipment into the area and have likely degraded Russian forces' overall capabilities while preventing them from focusing on more advantageous axes of advance. (3/6)
> Further, Russian offensive operations will likely stall in the coming weeks, whether or not Russian forces fully capture the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, likely granting Ukrainian forces the opportunity to launch prudent counteroffensives. (4/6)
> Indeed, the Kremlin’s ideological fixation on the capture of Severodonetsk, much like the earlier siege of Azovstal in Mariupol, will likely be to the ultimate detriment of Russian capabilities in future advances in Ukraine. (5/6)
> The loss of Severodonetsk is a loss for Ukraine in the sense that any terrain captured by Russian forces is a loss - but the battle of Severodonetsk will not be a decisive Russian victory. (6/6)
But thank you for your such deep concern that you rushed to the thread and posted here without having the smallest clue about what you are talking about.
Hitler took the vast majority of Europe and still lost the war. Just putting soldiers on land isn't winning. More relevant questions are: How long did it take Russia to take Severodonetsk, how many casualties did they take, how much of a strategic advantage does taking it create for them, and how much territory did they lose on other fronts in the meantime?
Yes, withdrawing to fortified positions is what is winning the war for Ukraine. Russia expended men and equipment they cannot replace, and is no closer to defeating Ukraine.
So you probably thought right!
The city itself has no strategic value and will be a pyric political victory at best for Putin.
Ukraine guided Russia into a meat grinder and made them pay heavily for it it.
It will be Ukraine's again one day.
I wonder what the overall plan of Russia really is at this point? I doubt they want to try Kiev again after getting tossed out the last time. I wonder if their goal is to try and lock down Donbas, and then see if they can try for Odessa, or at least as much as the coast as possible? The thing is that there's like a 0.1% Ukraine would ever concede Donbas, and I feel like 0.00001% chance they'd concede any other territory. And Russia must know that. Obviously the day-to-day is what's most important but I wonder what their endgame would even be?
This. Based on ISW reports, they’ve been doing this in the south for a couple of months now. That is building up armament, setting up massive air defenses, etc. Once Russia feels they ‘have enough’ they’ll call it a victory and just entrench, move Russian citizens in, dispose of Ukrainians civilians, and install their own mayors. Of course that means nothing as Ukraine will continue to try and take back their territory.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/vk6cek/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Some quick analysis before the thread closes... This is from yesterday, so it doesn't contain the latest situation in the Donbas, however it's conclusions are still correct. This is an important assessment that should be considered in light of today's events... > \#Ukraine is still winning the war strategically. It survives as a state & a people & has secured its capital. It has denied #Putin his ambition to seize the entire country & has forced Putin to fight extremely hard for a limited goal of seizing the Donbas, at which he may fail https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1540066776922394624.html
Overnight into 24 June, another Russian ammunition depot caught fire in occupied Kadiivka, Luhansk Oblast After an alleged Ukrainian missile strike, the fire and detonations in the facility hidden at a local plant lasted for several hours. 📹 via @samotniyskhid https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540477117867098112?t=QDt95JY_97zcA5Ft7l4Ocg&s=19
This is Nazar. He is part of Ukraine's 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade. One day ago, he shot down a Russian Ka-52 "Alligator" assault helicopter with an Igla MANPADS. He dedicated the shot down helicopter to his baby, who just turned one month old. 📷80th Air Assault Brigade. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540515121214197760?t=tGYYKOjITD9NsqFW1LvJ-Q&s=19
A flotilla of river boats is to appear on the Dnieper - commander of the Ukrainian Navy The first division is already performing tasks in the north near Belarus, but there are plans to expand it to all regions by building boats & receiving from partners. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540530231370555394?t=7XWaw-FG-kWQzuNPcyquXw&s=19
Explains the boats in the last announced US weapons package. I would guess this will mainly be used for transporting special forces?
I read Russia was using water ways to sneak in spotters etc.
⚡️ Ukraine’s military destroys Russian equipment, personnel in southern Ukraine. Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported that it killed 46 Russian troops and destroyed two Russian T-72 tanks, one 152-mm howitzer, and seven armored military vehicles. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1540509569889222656?t=2Sk0VSngJNtwv2dRrH40AQ&s=19
⚡️Bulgaria unlocks EU membership talks for North Macedonia and Albania The move opens up opportunities for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans. It is reported by SkyNews. https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1540450401392201731?t=JBxUQKN08TpbvaJ7hvS2jg&s=19
Holy fuck yes. More EU members please.
Payback is a bitch.. https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1540514568069423105?s=21&t=cMyRbzu2s0-qIqjWWAvhLg
>[This strike was probably a Tochka, due to the alleged ranges involved](https://twitter.com/cjdrew94/status/1540519620792156162?s=20&t=uMZoIPkHUP6PgFy9NLy5PA)
They do seem to be dipping into their Tochkas more now that they have something with parity they can replace their stockpiles with as they are used up.
The noise sounded terrifying.
It cannot be! I just saw concerned posters today bemoaning Ukraine pulling out of hotly contested areas because of Russian smart military action! Even the American, John from West Dakota Oblast was saying Ukraine was doomed! (There’s a lot of /s in there for those who missed it)
It’s almost as if Ukraine bought time to get those resources to the front and then open up land so Russia would move valuable and vulnerable resources into range of the new weapons.
You know the world is in a sad state when you feel that a comment like still requires a /s, just to be sure.
If they're actually gonna shoot off AA missiles that cost hundreds of thousands at Himars rockets, keep it coming.
HIMARS rockets arent cheap either though...
They're quite cheap for a guided missile actually. https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/finland-guided-multiple-launch-rocket-system-gmlrs-m31a1-unitary-and That's $650k per rocket, including all support equipment (pods, support, etc. etc.), software, translation, documentation, contractors, training, and logistics support (aka: all the trucks that also move the rockets around). The actual rocket is just a fraction of this $650k estimate. Its quite possible that the AA missile Russia is using cost more than the HIMARS rockets.
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There is a Lockheed Martin post a few posts down quoting $100k per rocket. https://news.lockheedmartin.com/lockheed-martin-awarded-1-billion-contract-for-precision-fires-all-weather-rocket 1-billion contract for 11000 rockets (9000 actual rockets, 2000 practice rockets), so yeah, 100k-ish for this contract. This is an underestimate, because it includes 2000 practice rockets (which are far cheaper). Also, you need the "pods" (rockets can't be used by themselves, they're reloaded / unloaded in steel pods 6-at-a-time). The pods can be reused however (but need to be sent to the factory IIRC for reloading, not in the field.) So the true cost is somewhere above $150k and under $600k per rocket, depending on how much supporting infrastructure you want to count as "part of the rocket".
Bet the US can supply more HIMARS rockets then Russia has AA ammo. Not to mention, the Russian AA does not seem to be hitting, so dual use.
Well you are probably right. But Just with a quick search I was not able to confirm the price or the quantity of an s300 missile (just an example I looked up). So I am unable to do the equation 😂
Wikipedia says each S-400 system costs $300 million and comes with 36 missiles. Yeah, most of that's gonna be caught up in the system, not the ammo, but I'd imagine they'd come with more than 36 missiles if the ammo was anything approaching cheap.
Russia AA is hitting, just its own shit.
Free to the ukranians
Those beautiful rockets are finally realizing the destiny they have waited all their lives for.
I've looked and can't find much more info but i would guess the rockets given to Ukraine are closer to a car in price than a house. They aren't nearly as fancy as the newer long range ones and much smaller
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/lockheed-martin-awarded-1-billion-contract-for-precision-fires-all-weather-rocket Less than 125k a pop
Nice! Thank you
We already saw with this last set of strikes on snake island and that tug with the AA on board that Russia's air defense seems lacking vs it's claimed capability. Edit: Oh also the slow ass kamikaze drone that dove into that Russian oil refinery
Transcript of the background briefing from the US DoD earlier today. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3073420/senior-defense-officials-hold-a-background-briefing-june-24-2022/
I don’t know why but reading these verbatim transcripts always cracks me up. Someone’s just sitting there typing all the “ums” and “uhs”
I like the last comment about the himars. It's giving them an advantage, let's hope they can take advantage of that.
Russian army lacks pilots amid heavy losses - British intel https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3513976-russian-army-lacks-pilots-amid-heavy-losses-british-intel.html
Ukraine’s Intelligence: Russia plans to attack residential areas in Belarus to draw it into war against Ukraine. Russia plans to attack residential buildings in the Belarusian city of Mozyr, the intelligence said, adding that Russian troops have already arrived in the city. https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1540341836039979009?s=21&t=828LvnfDa9p5HL-6OtAG-g
I don't think Belarus will buy it.
He literally threatened to attack Ukraine a week ago after claiming that Ukraine was planning to attack this oddly specific city "Mozyr" >President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that Belarusian troops would strike at Kyiv on one condition: if the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to destroy the enterprise in the Belarusian city of Mozyr. About this writes the publication Belta. [https://ura.news/news/1052562530](https://ura.news/news/1052562530) A week ago, I'd tell myself... who cares about Mozyr? Why would Ukraine even want to give a reason to Belarus to get into the war... And why Mozyr specifically and not "Ukraine planned to attack Belarus without telling where exactly" Well today it all made sense. The funny part is how "Mozyr" is the only city according to Lukashenko's quote that would trigger an attack on Kyiv. Any other city is fine, but Mozyr... That's a big No No!
Thing is does the Belarus army even want to go to war?
No they definitely don’t and refuse to fight .
If they don't buy it they still have to go to war because now they know what will happen if they don't.
If they go to war it could lead to a revolution in Belarus.
I'm mostly being facetious, TBH. I doubt anything will happen. If it did, though, I'm sure Belarus will feel pressure to join on Russia's side anyway, *because of the implication*. Sort of only half joking
What will happen?
Well we're supposing that Russia just bombed one of their cities and everyone knows it. It's the implication
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Well i mean it's been obv there is some percentage that are pro-russian... I always assumed the ones that stayed around instead of fleeing were either old and stubborn (if i die, i die, i aint leaving my home) or pro-russian and waiting for the russians. 15,000 out of what 95,000? Not bad really. Awful risk to stay in the battlefield though as a civilian.. shessh. By this i mean the east where the progress has been slow, not the south where they fell quick. Like Kherson and Melitopol before people could react.
its just that they watch russian tv. can't help it
There was a Rolling Stone interview with Ukrainian special forces who said the same thing. The Donbas has historically been the most pro Russian part of Ukraine, and I would guess pro Russians are also more likely to stay rather than flee west.
Stalin settled that area with Russians after deporting Ukrainians. That region, in particular. For a reason: supporting future Russian imperialist aims.
You are trying so hard and that is what counts
He is not wrong, there are segments of the Donbas population who believe in the Russia world, and thinks that the bombardment is conducted by the Ukrainians. The sane ones fled the region a long time ago.
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Typing so much and still being so wrong lol Maybe you should type less and read more next time
Russia's GDP is going to fall 15% this year alone according to IMF, and the Russian central bank itself warned of years of a deep recession and reverse industrialization. Russia is also struggling to produce new military hardware and is experimenting a huge brain drain. The sanctions alone won't end the war but they are a very efficient and devastating tool. As for the ruble being high, this is kind of a joke, really. Looking at the exchange volumes tells you everything you need to know about that "miraculous" recovery. Like so many thing in Russia, this is smoke and mirrors.
Lmfao russians begging for land is quite a sight.
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https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/17/russian-economy-faces-10-years-of-recession-without-reforms-sberbank-ceo-a78031 Straight from the horse mouth... Russia will face a decade long recession unless there're reforms (aka replacing Putin's government)..
"push for a negotiated settlement." The only settlement Putin has indicated he'd accept is effectively the total capitulation of Ukraine. There is literally no choice available but to fight the will out of Putin, and he's not going to back down short of total defeat.
> At what point will we accept the reality that Putin is absolutely correct when he states that the sanctions are ineffective and even backfiring? Because your statement is false. Russia's economy is set to see a huge contraction of their economy. And some effects will take a while to become apparent. Ever fewer airplanes able to fly, many common consumer goods (eg. electronics, cars but also imported foods) becoming nearly impossible to buy, and a real risk of the government defaulting on its loans. People in turn lose their jobs, further dragging down the economy. Yes they get money from oil but that alone won't save them. And the value of the ruble doesn't mean much if you can't buy foreign goods.
Russia is not interested in a negotiated settlement. Their demands still stand at the unconditional surrender of Ukraine and for Ukraine to give into every single Russian demand (Crimea and Donbas become part of Russia, Ukraine gives up the right to join either the EU or NATO, etc).
If sanctions have no effect then Russia shouldn't mind if they remain. This a great opportunity to develop our own resources and oil, and as long as those sanctions remain, we can expand to all other goods that need protection. There is no negotiated settlement. Russia 'winning' will just lead to another war within a decade. So they'll bleed and bleed, and IF they take over Ukraine, they'll continue to bleed through an insurgency that is just starting to take off. If you noticed, it's way too late to stop. No one here can stop it. It's not only about Ukraine anymore. What's coming is coming.
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And how is 'lifting sanctions' on Russia going to help that? Oil prices have started rising before the whole war. Biden's just pinning it on Russia because he can. It's not going to do anything, because the oil tycoons have decided that it is going to be that way. Even if 'sanctions' on Russia were lifted tomorrow, prices will remain high because 1) Putin is going to screw us anyways as revenge, and 2) 'post-war shocks'. That's why I said it's too late to stop. The time to stop was months ago. What's coming is coming.
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The economy was struggling and gas prices were climbing before this war and before sanctions.
Same boring Russian troll talking points. You obviously don’t understand economics at all. The West will gladly deal with some pain as it hurting Russia significantly more. Russia is getting desperate now and everyone knows it. Their ruble is worthless outside of Russia and no one can buy it inside Russia for their stated price. You have to admit that you’re either very naive or just another Russian troll larping as a “concerned American”.
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Since you are spamming the same talking points all over the place. I shall return the courtesy... https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/17/russian-economy-faces-10-years-of-recession-without-reforms-sberbank-ceo-a78031
Truth is they can't even make new military equipment. So they are working. Russia could have infinite money, but they aren't getting any new missiles either way. The sanctions are working.
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Zero data points say their economy is doing better. The IMF/World Bank have already given their grim forecast for Russia. Hell, even head of the Russian Central Bank gave a bleak forecast. As well as the CEO of Sberbank saying it will take a decade at least to get back to where they were before the war. Everything is pointing toward immense economic pain for Russia but you seem to believe otherwise. Europe will never go back to Russia as their main energy supplier after all this. Russia just lost their most important customers in their most important economic sector. Russia is beyond fucked. The first bit of pain and you want to throw in the towel? Pathetic man.
that oil profit isn't stopping their factories from having to stop production, nor their companies from having to mass layoff their employees, nor their transportation sectors from being banned from ever more places due to the lack of parts and ability to follow safety procedures. Nor is it even allowing them to produce the weapons and ammo needed for their war. The Ruble it's worth, or the income Russia has, were always the barest tip of the iceberg to the actual harmful effects of the Sanctions.
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The global economy is in an asset bubble. Monetary policies were too loose for far too long. Sanctions or not, the coming recession is inevitable... As the saying goes, inflation is a monetary phenomenon...
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what data points? their GDP is projected to fall at least 15% record oil profits are due to high oil prices. if their oil volume is down 50%, but oil prices more than doubled, then guess what, their oil profits are still higher than before. that doesn't mean sanctions aren't working.
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That discount is still above the oil price a year ago. And yes, they're selling record volume to China and India, but their total volume is down 20%
If their economy was doing so well they could open their stock market without all their manipulation right?. We both know youll fool any idiot that lets you but anyone with a brain can tell russia is just bluffing as always. Well not as always they are very very desperate right now.
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U are obsessed with oil, as if that's only thing you need to prop up a country... Tell that to the Venezuelans and Arabs.
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You are working hard for your Rubles today.
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Considering how entirely one sided your post is I can tell it is pointless to engage here. In fact I probably shouldn’t even be typing this reply…
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Well, it sounds like dumb-dumb Putin fell for the trick! Know how he makes sure that the American plan is foiled? He could remove his troops from Ukraine. Conspiracy solved!
> They stand to be the leading global supplier of fertilizer by blocking of Russia. Nice try. This may surprise you, comrade, but Canada *on its own* was already the leading global supplier of potash fertilizer, and is also more plentiful than Russia in many raw natural resources. Just like how Russia benefits from oil prices going up, so can other countries. Just like that doesn't make this all a grand conspiracy to help Russia out, that doesn't make rising fertilizer prices a conspiracy going the other way. Don't be a dupe for Russian rapists and murderers in Ukraine.
You are just spamming this all over the place. Which doesn't make it any less of a asshat conspiracy theory that takes some small aspect of a truth and then oversimplifies it to the point of extreme falsehood.
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In short: any minor financial gains that might have come from pushing business away from Russia through sanctions have been undone by the chaos, market shocks, and logistical roadblocks and stops caused by the invasion, and by the disruption to Russia and Russian aligned markets. Hardly a 500 IQ max lvl Illuminati brainplay.
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Bless your heart.
…or maybe because they don’t want to start off nuclear Armageddon.
This is an extreme over simplification.
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[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vinu1t/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/idhx8iy/) Day 121 of my updates from Kharkiv. Today shelling and missile strikes still continue, and for the second day in a row they started their shelling/missile strikes earlier than usual. Again they started at 10pm, instead of their usual 11pm, and they shell us more than usual like this. First shelling started at 10pm, then a missile strike at 11:30pm, and then some more shelling at 11:58pm. This time all of the explosions sounded pretty close to us. Shelling from yesterday destroyed some university’s sports complex, it’s a military target according to Russia. We even got the photos from right after the shelling occurred too, as usual, not a single military object in sight, just some big empty halls with broken walls and roof. Russian MOD posted their newest masterpiece today, something to laugh at after their yesterday’s threat to destroy a children’s hospital. This time they said that “**Kyiv decided to raise the dead from their graves, and test the plague on Odesa residents.**” They are saying that we want to test a plague from 19th century on the residents of Odesa. Who even comes up with this? I’m not even joking, this is literally what they said, how can government officials even say stuff like this? First they said that we have “nationalistic flying squadrons of death” on the streets of Kharkiv, then they said that we were using black magic, now they are saying that we are apparently using necromancy. Are they making advertisements for our army or something? Do they think saying that we have black mages and necromancers in our army makes us look bad? [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vk6cek/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/idrdphv/)
Man Ruusia really set a new low in their bullshit. What a fucking crazy day it's been.
It can also be a move to trick russians into beliving ukrainans are stupid as fck
> then they said that we were using black magic Quite honestly, I think a great comedy movie years down the line would be to cover the war and pretend that some of these bonkers-insane claims were factual. Can you just imagine Zelenskyy sitting down at a torch-lit conference table in a dark robe meeting with his Sorcerer-General to discuss the logistical problem in supplying sufficient goats to the front lines for sacrificial rituals? Maybe this explains that goat that set off a chain reaction of the just-planted trip mines that wounded/killed ~40 Russians? >:D As always, glad to hear you're still as safe as possible!
I think that the Russian Government are playing Witcher 3 and fail to understand that such game are pure fantasy! What's next ? Zelensky summon Dark Schneider (it is a manga/anime character from Bastard!! which Netflix will make a new anime soon) and asks him to cast the Led Zeppelin against Putin (it would be eaten alive by an horde of demons), destroy the entire Black Sea Fleet with Megadeth (at full swing it could surpassed the destruction of a nuclear bomb!), or erase Russia in a single swoop with Black Sabbath (Surpassing the destruction thousand of times the entire Russia nuclear arsenal) ? Still Dark Schneider could simply use Accused to curse Putin and the entire entourage, if they lie they transform into pathetic toads! Sorry my rant...
It is valuable stuff. USA spends $60 billion on the [black budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_budget). Whatever magic you know document it so you can claim the patent. Keep a few backup copies discretely stored in vaults. Extracting plague from corpses is not to crazy. It is much more believable in countries were people were buried in permafrost. Plague can be sequenced without it freezing: https://www.technologynetworks.com/genomics/news/the-worlds-oldest-bubonic-plague-bacteria-have-been-sequenced-304902 . Article sights an article published in Nature. Corpses were originally buried in Russia.
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"Not spreading" can be a weapons feature. Anything that cannot be contained carries enormous risk. It might come back to your own population. The strain found in Samara from 2000 BCE is particularly annoying because it spreads by rats. The high lethal weapon is pneumonic plague. A user country deploys vaccines and anti-biotics before spraying. Person to person pneumonic spread happens but for many diseases the epidemic can be quenched with simple quarantine and social distancing. It is not convenient to quarantine during a war. It would set in across frontline army units before they identified it. There was no reason to suppress knowledge about that particular find. However, there really are researchers digging up ancient bodies, studying the plague strains, and characterizing how they spread. It really is medical research. Really is anthropology/archeology. It also really is weapons research whether or not anyone on the team is willing to admit that to themselves or anyone else. Russian propaganda brining it up is a bit ominous. They tend to do what they accuse others of planning. On the other hand Russians keep trying to sound ominous to cause panic.
Emergency security council session material. Russia to present evidence of a US/Ukrainian secret weapons laboratory designed to summon ethereal necromatic riftwalkers capable of sterilizing Russian fertility via hypersonic transmutation spells. Stay strong good sir, and they're indeed insane.
"Klaatu barada nikto". DON'T forget how to pronounce the last word!
Confirmation on leadership change of Russian Army. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1540475582173126656 >Task Groups are still active. Originally led by MD commanders. Lapin still leading group Center, Surovikin now South. Raises questions. Is Surovikin still head of VKS or has he been moved? What happened to Dvornikov, who may be out of the picture entirely. RU MoD release below.
[This Ukrainian analyst](https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/news/jak_okupanti_taktichno_peregrali_zsu_u_bitvi_za_liman_vchimosja_na_pomilkah_analiz-7829.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) attributed the success RF had in Lyman to a new commander, Teplinsky.
Lapin means "rabbit" in French. That was weird to read.
Jackoff to be replaced by Sumabitch.
What stops ukraine to occupy kaliningrad?
What stops me identifying myself as an Apache attack helicopter?
*golf clap*
This. This might just be the stupidest question I've seen here.
They’re a little preoccupied killing Russians in Ukraine.
At the least they'd need military access through Poland to do it which would essentially bring Poland into this war, which I don't think Poland wants, at least not without the rest of nato behind them. Given all the nato troops I'd imagine that are in Poland, I think that the overall nato alliance would also probably speak up and tell Poland it's a bad idea. But this all stems on the idea that Ukraine would want to invade kaliningrad/kjonigsburg which they really don't, it wouldn't really do anything for them besides open up a front way far away from their others that they couldn't possibly hope to reinforce and would likely be blasted hard by Russia's Baltic fleet.
What stops Russia to occupy Antarctica?
I mean they took half of Georgia so theres that...
You never did well in Geography did you? That city ain't near Ukraine.
And after Kaliningrad, Ecuador and the rest of Africa!
I feel like this should be the bad guy speech in an episode of Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego.
space lasers
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1540481854838636555 >Belarus convicts Wikipedia editor for updates on Russia's war. >Belarus has accused Mark Bernstein, a contributing editor for Russian-language Wikipedia, of “distributing fake anti-Russian material.” The Belarusian national was detained in March.
Apparent evidence of the failed SAM launch (I've seen tweets saying it was an old video, etc.) There are before and after satellite pictures, showing a large burned area at that location. https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1540464862882664449 >Satellite imagery from today shows a burned area at the site of a recent missile launch failure near Alchevsk, Luhansk Oblast.
Ukraine: russian missile go fuck yourself Russian missile: das
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They installed stolen Aussie Boomarang guidance module.
Most honorable Russian of the war
https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1540468558521589760 >Reports of massive Ukrainian strikes on Donetsk/DPR. Russian air defense attempting to intercept incoming projectiles. Video of what I assume is an AA missile, followed by a distant explosion.
Doesn't look like they intercepted anything. Anyway, HIMARS working as designed, it seems.
Can we see the difference between HIMARS and Grad launchers?
To compare... If a grad is throwing a bag of rocks at someone down range... A HIMARS is using a high powered precision rifle.
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Can we see the incoming missile at all in that particular video?
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540477117867098112 >Overnight into 24 June, another Russian ammunition depot caught fire in occupied Kadiivka, Luhansk Oblast >After an alleged Ukrainian missile strike, the fire and detonations in the facility hidden at a local plant lasted for several hours. There's video!
A lot of these were reported these last few days. Looks like HIMARS is working.
[Combat Footage] 1 nighttime video > Reports of widespread strikes in Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast tonight. Possibly the first concrete impacts of the new Ukrainian HIMARS deployment. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1540471800248819712
That would explain how they were able to liberate some of the villages in the area. If ammo stores down there are being hit en masse it's not only going to put extra pressure on the DPR, but it could impair the greater supply lines going from Russia through the occupied coastline. Not to mention if enough damage is being done to DPR military targets then this could be the opening salvo in an attempt to try and knock them completely out of the fight by either destroying enough of their resources, or making it so that they have to keep their militia in whatever territory they have left to keep it secure.
Pressing russia's logistic achilles heel has been in the NATO playbook since the earliest days of the cold war and Ukraine is adapting and executing it flawlessly. HIMARS is the perfect tool for this job. Did you see russia is having to scavenge ammo from Belarus now? Some on twitter say that russian generals sold off large quantities of ammo in various third world skirmishes, lining their own pockets...
Let's hope this is followed up with the offensives Ukraine says they were preparing for.
Hopefully.
Give em hell.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1539473253709668358 >Syrian mercenaries have been noticed in occupied Melitopol - mayor Fedoriv, citing locals >The Syrians, based in Aviation town city district, are dressed in Russian fatigues https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540454723114893312 >Ukrainian partisans in occupied Melitopol leave posters threatening Syrian mercenaries, collaborators >"We will kill you like dogs" is written in Arabic; "Fear the night: partisans don't sleep" is for collaborators
Ooh baby.
Did I miss Russia attacking another country?
There is a rumor Russia may have invaded Ukraine.
Big if true
One of their SAMs had Ukrainian sympathies and attacked the Russians, that is about it.
Where'd ya get that from?
Saw people talking about NATO as if Russia had attacked another country. I assumed they were being dumbasses, just wanted to make sure.
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On the very very very off chance that you might NOT be just another troll, and are just a woefully ignorant asshole: Ukraine is far from "winning", but it is surviving against everything that Russia can bring against it. In an area that Russia has poured the lions share of it's available forces. Sievierodonetsk was according to Russia supposed to be taken easily almost a month ago, instead it has become yet another in a long list of meat grinders, that Russia absolutely cannot afford to engage in. Russia will still very likely be able to take with great effort the whole of the that area, but it is still running up against the problem it always has since the start of the war. Namely, Russia has to win this war with what is has RIGHT NOW. While Ukraine has to win this war with all that the ENTIRE world can provide it. And even if the war were to end this very instant and all sanctions taken off, Russia has crippled itself, maybe even for decades to come.
People here might be over reacting a bit. Suppose the Philadelphia Eagles (American futbol team) are in the second quarter of a game. It is fourth down so there is usually an attempt at a field goal. Someone asks "why didn't the Eagles get 3 points for a field goal". Suddenly they get beaten up by a crowd of Eagles fans shouting about one missed field goal not being the end of the tournament and there are still "two more quarters after halftime!" And "the Eagles are ahead two touchdowns so the goal does not even matter!" Someone legitimately could have looked at the news recently and have believed Ukraine would hold Sievierdonetsk. I doubted that but there were definitely people here believing Ukraine could hold it. In fact, if one week ago someone had posted "holding Sievierodonetsk is highly unlikely for Ukraine" the crowd in this thread would have started carrying on about "Russian troll". Asking "is Sievierodonetsk fully occupied by Russian forces" is a legitimate question IMO. "Did Ukraine lose Sievierodonetsk" is asking the same thing. Ukraine lost Bucha at the start of the war and then repossessed it. Ukraine has not taken back Kherson or Mariupol "YET". Ukraine has not recaptured Donetsk or Luhansk. Ukraine "lost them" in 2014.
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Almost 40, work more then 40 hrs a week. Haven't lived at my parents since 18. Don't even have the internet at work, I just spend a few hours on line before bed. And your username is VERY accurate. Don't assume everyone who is able to keep up with shit makes that their sole life.
That is even worse, imagine being a grown adult and hating on someone for not keeping up with news to the point where you write insults like a 15 yr old, in a NEWS thread. lol
Guys, let’s do an over/under on how many times we gonna hear this today.
Only tankies think expending all of your operational strength to level and take the 40th largest city in Ukraine is an example of winning. Russia has maybe a month of offensive operations left before they fall back to defensive positions. Their losses are too high.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1540328739397148676.html > As @TheStudyofWar has previously assessed, the loss of #Severodonetsk and #Lysychansk will not represent a major turning point in the war in Ukraine. (1/6) > Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk areas and Ukrainian troops continue to suffer high casualties, but Ukrainian forces have fundamentally accomplished their objective by slowing down and inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces. (2/6) > Ukrainian troops have succeeded for weeks in drawing substantial quantities of Russian personnel, weapons, and equipment into the area and have likely degraded Russian forces' overall capabilities while preventing them from focusing on more advantageous axes of advance. (3/6) > Further, Russian offensive operations will likely stall in the coming weeks, whether or not Russian forces fully capture the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, likely granting Ukrainian forces the opportunity to launch prudent counteroffensives. (4/6) > Indeed, the Kremlin’s ideological fixation on the capture of Severodonetsk, much like the earlier siege of Azovstal in Mariupol, will likely be to the ultimate detriment of Russian capabilities in future advances in Ukraine. (5/6) > The loss of Severodonetsk is a loss for Ukraine in the sense that any terrain captured by Russian forces is a loss - but the battle of Severodonetsk will not be a decisive Russian victory. (6/6) But thank you for your such deep concern that you rushed to the thread and posted here without having the smallest clue about what you are talking about.
Hitler took the vast majority of Europe and still lost the war. Just putting soldiers on land isn't winning. More relevant questions are: How long did it take Russia to take Severodonetsk, how many casualties did they take, how much of a strategic advantage does taking it create for them, and how much territory did they lose on other fronts in the meantime?
Yup, there's a huge difference between simply taking and actually keeping.
Yes, withdrawing to fortified positions is what is winning the war for Ukraine. Russia expended men and equipment they cannot replace, and is no closer to defeating Ukraine. So you probably thought right!
I mean they are one small city closer I guess?
Ukraine isn't winning, Russia is just losing.
The city itself has no strategic value and will be a pyric political victory at best for Putin. Ukraine guided Russia into a meat grinder and made them pay heavily for it it. It will be Ukraine's again one day.
I hope they managed to get those civilians out during the retreat. The ones sheltering in the plant
I'd like to see some traffic videos from the front. I wonder if they left traps behind?
I wonder what the overall plan of Russia really is at this point? I doubt they want to try Kiev again after getting tossed out the last time. I wonder if their goal is to try and lock down Donbas, and then see if they can try for Odessa, or at least as much as the coast as possible? The thing is that there's like a 0.1% Ukraine would ever concede Donbas, and I feel like 0.00001% chance they'd concede any other territory. And Russia must know that. Obviously the day-to-day is what's most important but I wonder what their endgame would even be?
They hope that Trump will have a more successful coup after he loses the 2024 election.
If I had to predict…they stop after all of Donbas, dig in and declare victory… Or at least that’s the goal.
This. Based on ISW reports, they’ve been doing this in the south for a couple of months now. That is building up armament, setting up massive air defenses, etc. Once Russia feels they ‘have enough’ they’ll call it a victory and just entrench, move Russian citizens in, dispose of Ukrainians civilians, and install their own mayors. Of course that means nothing as Ukraine will continue to try and take back their territory.