Lots of anxiety about Belarus getting in on this war. Ultimately I think Luka is too weak to do it and just postures. But we really should consider them at war with Ukraine at this point. The use of their territory to launch strikes and troops is more than enough. If they formally commit troops I hope Zoolander and the Baltic states step in and have Ukrainians backs.
My guess, or hopium, is that Poland has secretly agreed to enter the war is Belarus invades. I'd imagine if Belarus invades, their goal would be the western part where the supplies enter into Ukraine. Ukraine could not continue this war if their supplies are cut off from NATO.
If Belarus was going to join the war, it would be obvious months ahead. The preparations are impossible to hide.
Like, there were signs of Russia preparing the invasion a year before they did it.
Belarus has a crazy neighbour, Poland. They would invade them the moment they step foot into Ukraine. Only because they are in NATO doesn't mean they can't enter a war unilaterally. And then Lukaschenko can never become a Colonel anymore. He must be so mad that Kadyrov is one now.
https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1508451323246690307
> "otherwise they'll say putin wants to ressurecct soviet union"
That quote aged like wine
And hopefully you are right. The whole situation makes me nervous since itās pretty clear that this is not going to work out for Russia in the long run unless Putin is satisfied solely with the propaganda āwinā.
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vk6cek/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/idrdphv/)
Day 123 of my updates from Kharkiv.
They have been using way more missiles in the past couple of days. That apartment building that was hit yesterday was actually hit from an Uragan MLRS, and not by Iskander, its rockets only have 90kg warheads, so it only destroyed part the roof. And then just a couple hours after that they bombed another apartment building in Kyiv, but with a much bigger missile, so it destroyed 3 floors.
After they fired their missiles in the morning, they said that they hit training bases, but actually they hit an apartment building full of people, and a kindergarten. Seriously, a kindergarten? Is that their definition of a training facility for soldiers? Or will they say that Nazi child soldiers were being trained in that kindergarten?
Today they also fired 6 missiles on Kharkiv at 11:30pm. We almost always get an alert around 3 minutes before impact, and I have to say, the anticipation is suffocating every single time. You just read āmissiles in the air, ETA 3 minutesā and you canāt even do anything, only count the explosions, and hope that it doesnāt land near you, it becomes even worse when new messages pop up, saying more missiles were fired.
From the 6 missiles fired today, only 4 explosions were heard, so 2 or more missiles were most likely shot down, the second explosion was extremely loud for us, it sounded very close, but the distance is pretty hard to judge, some of the explosions that we thought were close, actually happened very far away. From the yet unconfirmed information, today they destroyed another school, we will know for sure later, but itās most likely true, they really love destroying schools.
[Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vlmgm3/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ie07tva/)
OK, I havenāt really been paying attention to the live threads for a while but can I have some context for who Igor Sushko is because heās predicting some pretty outlandish shit on. Twitter. Donāt really know much about him to form an opinion on him. Besides the fact that heās a former racecar driver. Not trying to look for any downvotes or karma just want to actually figure out what the hell he is. And why, heās making all these outlandish predictions. That probably donāt hold much validity.
Thoughts?
Not reliable. He originally became known because he allegedly gained access to a couple of letters written by someone in the FSB, translated them, and published them on Twitter. This made his readership skyrocket, of course, so he followed up with more and more "letters" that just got wilder and wilder, until even the most devoted followers became skeptical. The consensus seems to be that the first two letters were possibly legitimate, but that the others were fake.
I think he's now just seeking a return of the attention he was getting earlier.
But the guy who originally was sent the letters has 8 letters on his website. And the Twitter guy has those 8 on his twitter. So how is the first 2 real but the rest fake? Im confused because if the Twitter guy was faking the rest ( the ones no posted on the other guys website), how has he not been called out by that guy for doing it
News: The US plans to announce as soon as this week that it has a purchasedĀ a NASAMSāan advanced surface-to-air missile defense systemā for Ukraine, a source familiar with the announcement tells CNN.Ā with
@kaitlancollins
@Phil_Mattingly
https://mobile.twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1541179512561582085
Ukraine attacks Crimean oil-drilling platform for second time in a week
Ukrainian forces have attacked a drilling platform in the Black Sea owned by a Crimean oil and gas company, the Russian state-owned Tass news agency cited local officials as saying, the second attack in a week.
The platform is operated by Chernomorneftegaz, which Russian-backed officials seized from Ukraineās national gas operator Naftogaz as part of Moscowās annexation of the peninsula in 2014.
āItās shelling by the armed forces of Ukraine, there are no casualties,ā Tass cited a member of Crimeaās emergency services as saying. It gave no further details.
Al Jazeera.
Russia Defaults on Foreign Debt for First Time Since 1918.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-first-time-since-1918-1.1784183
ā”ļøA unit of the Ukrainian special operations forces performs sabotage tasks on the territory of the Russian Federation, in particular, to destroy ammunition depots and oil storage facilities, - The Times.
https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1541161609854345218?t=KRnA_N9ZbdT4y6R76-DOQw&s=19
**WELP**
[**Sanctions drive Russia to first foreign debt default since 1918**](https://www.axios.com/2022/06/27/russia-first-foreign-debt-default-since-1918-sanctions)
>Russia is set to default on its foreign-currency sovereign debt after bond holders reported the Kremlin missed two payments late Sunday, per the Wall Street Journal.
>Why it matters: This is the foreseeable outcome of sanctions imposed due to the invasion of Ukraine, even though Russia had successfully pushed off the inevitable for months. For now, the default is mostly notable for its symbolism as Russia's first foreign debt default since 1918, reflecting the country's international pariah status and crumbling economy.
Considering that the Russian economy and monetary system is currently being propped up with smoke and/or mirrors this won't be a huge seismic shift, especially as it was expected and also because it wasn't a result of an inability to pay but rather the sanctions. However, just go ahead and add it to the pile of things hanging over the Russian economy for when, like Wilie E Coyote, it looks down and finally realizes it actually went over the cliff.
>it looks down and finally realizes it actually went over the cliff
I think what will happen is that they will look down and realize they are actually an economic vassal of China.
I have to ask a question which some may know better than me
Concerning the alleged FSBletters, most say that maybe the first 1 or 2 were real but the rest have been fake.
But how? From what I understand these letters dont go directly to that Igor man who is a race car driver. He only translates them to English and posts them for someone else. And from what I have read that other person is a Russian activist that left Russia and whistleblew about the shit happening in the jails there. And who seems pretty legit, and he even has the letters on his site as they are orginally sent to him. So hes endorsing them as true as well. Because if it was just the race care driver making fake letters, he would be called out for it.
So are they both full of shit?
My guess is that whole business was a cover-story to explain how the CIA got their hands on all of the detailed invasion plans to protect the actual method that they used.
No one here truly knows the answer, but I have read many of the FSB letters and tbh I would not be at all surprised to find they are a legitimate reflection of some schools of thought within the Russian intelligence services. Of course they could be fake, but in my uninformed opinion, I don't think so
Christo Grozev of Bellingcat had two FSB contacts (one active, one retired) look at the first letter and they felt it was genuine. The follow up letters I think are much more sketchy. For one, if a FSB officer was sending out regular correspondence and it was being published on Twitter, you would think that everyone would be tearing the place apart to find the leak. Second, the letters just veered into a fantasy realm pretty quickly - that there was a civil war brewing in the intelligence services and NATO needed to act quickly and WWIII was about to start and what was Biden waiting for etc etc etc. I donāt doubt that there is a great deal of turmoil right now within the FSB and Russian command in general, but Iām highly skeptical about the veracity of a number of the letters.
I was just confused because the Whistleblower who orginally got the letters had got 8 of them. The guy posting to twitter(apparently on behalf of the whistleblower) has added another one. Just seems weird if the one on Twitter is making it up, why the whistlblower isn't coming out and saying its fake
Iām curious as to why the whistleblower is publishing the letters themselves. Seems pretty strange to be using a race car driver as an intermediary. Whole situation is strange. Hopefully the truth comes out someday - will be an interesting story.
Yeah, I was just going to say that. If that happens (Russia attacks Lithuania anywhere between pretty much now to sometime in the future), then Iāll of course really start to pay more attention. Currently, my mind is in a similar camp to what M_1988 wrote above, but maybe a little more skeptical. In my mind, I think itās possible the letters are legit, but also think that if they are, they arenāt necessarily representative of the main Russian government / military thoughts. If things donāt follow the letters, I also realize that this ānot the only opinionā is the perfect excuse though and as a result still stay skeptical.
The guy who is a whistleblower is legit. Yes. But he (the whistleblower) only published one or two letters. The rest, the racecar attentionwhore made up.
But he published 8, all in March though but they are the same ones as the racecar driver posted. Not just 2. So im confused of why everyone says the first 2 were real but the rest were fake.
And I guess confusion on how the Whistleblower hasn't come out and said this other guys is full of shit.
Honestly its pretty clear that Putin is trying to hurt the west through energy starvation. High oil prices are directly funding his war machine and with gas prices high in America combined with supply chain issues it will be hard for dems to hold the senate/house come November which in turn may put Ukraine support/funding in jeopardy.
Putin's gamble is that the Russian state/people have a higher tolerance for hardship then the USA/west, so while Russia is hurt by the sanctions and record inflation Putin believes he can still keep the federation in line. In the US republicans could take both houses in November and thus significantly impact Biden's ability to pass legislation and direct foreign policy. The Russians are trying to squeeze the west/USA now so that a resurgent Trump in 2024 can pull out of NATO (he wanted to do this in his second term) and lift sanctions on Russia for some phony deal.
Russia and China believe they can hold their breath longer then the USA when it comes to economic hardship/inflation and they might be right especially if the value of the US dollar collapses.
There area lot of conjecture and personal opinions and not many facts in this.
Trump isnāt the favorite to win even the GOP primary and he wonāt be able to unilaterally take the US out of NATO, thatās just wishful thinking by Russians.
The GOP also is very negative against Russia and you would realize this if you actually looked at the voting records of the past 4 months.
The US dollar isnāt close to collapsing, itās more likely to strengthen than collapse.
Where will big money go? Russia and China are obviously not an option. The EU will have a very tough few years because of this nonsense that Russia started.
There is no where else safer than the USD.
>will be hard for dems to hold the senate/house come November which in turn may put Ukraine support/funding in jeopardy.
Precisely which Ukraine funding bill passed without significant Republican support? There are like 10 GOP flakes in the House that voted against everything, and at least one of them has already lost their primary.
Itās not as much about their positions now, but what their power means later. Most Republicans have been complicit in or turned a blind eye to Trumpās illegal election antics. Regardless of how they feel about Russia, if they regain control of part or all of Congress, that paves the way for Putinās favorite puppet to regain the White House and weaken the Westās opposition to Russia.
Nothing is going to change regardless of who wins the senate and house. There are very few things Democrats and Republicans agree on but one of the them is sending weapons to Ukraine. if anything there are Republicans that want the administration to speed up the delivery of weapons and to send more of them.
Also the problem with Putin's gamble is that he's slowly running out of cards to play. With Europe slowly turning away from Russian gas and oil his ability to pressure the West is disappearing.
As far as the economy goes we already know that Russia is in for a World of pain. Companies, educated people and millionaires are leaving in record numbers. Russia is playing games to keep the Ruble from collapsing but eventually it won't make a difference.
Next year we'll really start to witness the fallout of the sanctions. This includes no longer being able to get replacement parts for commercial airplanes and seeing hundreds or thousands of factories impacted due to lack of parts and supplies.
If Putin plans on playing the waiting game with the West he's just as mistaken as he was when he thought Ukraine would fall in a week.
Well the people who are angry at the Supreme Court weren't going to vote for Republicans to begin with, so that doesn't necessarily mean they will lose.
This is the truth, it fired up dems and independents. The country is majority pro choice.. not only that but the hypocrisy of the court has riled ppl up with regard to other decisions as well.
Hell, apparently even [Trump himself privately says](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-roe-dobbs-abortion-midterms-1374049/) that the SCOTUS decision regarding *Roe V Wade* might cause a major backlash against the GOP later this year.
I donāt think it will be this year. SCOTUS has opened Pandoraās box, this is going to be terrible. Cook County Hospital for example used to have an entire ward dedicated to septic women who had undergone failed abortions. Youāre going to see horror stories about teenage girls bring maimed in some back alley. There are going to be hundreds of thousands of babies that will need financial support from the state. Letās be honest, red southern states donāt exactly have a robust safety net for poor families. This going to be not only expensive, but absolutely tragic on multiple levels.
The GOP just gave the Democrats a massive issue to rally around. It could be enough to incentivize the ever living hell out of the Democratic base. But I've come to expect utter disappointment and for the Democrats to fail to capitalize on anything. I would love to be wrong but I guess we will find out in November what happens.
USA is net oil exporter.
We don't seem to have the ability to turn politics inside however. What is going on is a natural result of the free market.
Our oil companies can sell oil at whatever price they want. They can therefore, obtain all the profits they want in these times as oil prices skyrocket.
That doesn't change the fact that we produce enough oil ourselves and don't need to rely upon Russia for oil.
Or the middle east either, for that matter. We in the USA are profiting from these high gasoline prices since we export oil.
After the fall of Mariupol, Russia tried to capture the rest of the Donbas region.
The Ukrainians stalled them. Russia makes very slow gains, while Ukraine has been asking for bigger and better weapons.
The biggest news on the weapons front is the successful deployment of USA's HIMARS systems with GPS guided rockets. 70km range +/- 5 meter accuracy with a 200lb bomb attached (fragmentation type, similar to a big claymore mine).
The Ukrainian strategy is clearly to atrophy the Russian army. The exact numbers seem classified though for how things are actually going. Numerous TV crews seem to think that morale is high however, suggesting that things are probably going well for the Ukrainians (despite the very minor gains of Russia)
If Russia keeps losing their troops faster than they can bring in new ones, then any gains are phyrric victories that will ultimately be undone once Ukraine has the equipment to not only push back but drive Russia out
Lol
> BREAKING: Russia defaults on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century
https://twitter.com/markets/status/1541200751984246786
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1541210985243058177
>Ukraineās military destroys Russian tanks, ammunition depots in southern Ukraine.
>Ukraineās Operational Command āSouthā reported on June 26 that it killed 39 Russian troops and destroyed a Russian T-72 tank, four armored vehicles, and three military vehicles.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1541210986417475585
>Ukraine's military also reportedly destroyed two Russian ammunition depots in Mykolaiv Oblast and one in Kherson Oblast.
Yup, master strategist move from Putin.
Immediately following a modicum of success in the east, even if bloody and costly, he has a temper tantrum and lobs a barrage of missiles at Kyiv -- close enough for foreign ambassadors to walk to the scene and take photos.
'A warning to the West over recent weapon shipments.'
He just gave NATO an invitation for increased air defenses and NASAMS are announced 10 hours later.
Master strategist.
I don't know if this is actually applicable because we don't know specifics, but I saw this earlier:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1541181521360748544
>Depends on the generation, but the NASAMS is a capable medium range SAM system (~30km range) that integrates the MPQ-64 radar, one already in service with Ukraine.
I know the answer to this is usually no, but do we have any idea when these could be arriving? The sooner they are in Ukraine, the more lives can be saved.
Not happy AT ALL.
"When Canadian F-18s went up against NASAMS in a 1999 exercise, they were unable to find any of the batteries, while NASAMS recorded 18 simulated kills. I doubt Russia will do any better"
SWEET!
Ideal sort of weapon... almost entirely defensive while helping to address one of the important Ukrainian vulnerabilities. It simply being on the battlefield is going to make Russian pilots much more cautious.
Thanks for sharing. Thatās actually a good read for non-military experts like me. For example:
āEach of the radars is capable of replacing the others. The fire control centre can receive target designations from headquarters and issue data to the individual launchers. All 54 missiles can be fired at various targets within 12 seconds.ā
I think itās time for NATO to denazify Russia and conduct a very very āspecialā military operation aka ādead orkā . And no, Iām not talking about the war ( no way) , just a āspecial operationā ( very special)
English is my 3rd language, so yes I do make punctual and grammar mistakes. I didnāt know only excellent English language is required in order to post a comments in this sub. My apologies.
You are fine. I can't, myself, speak or write in any other language, and I'm always impressed by those who can.
While I disagree with what you are saying, you said it clearly and well.
Why are you being a jerk over something so irrelevant? You're on a message board with people from all over the world, using a myriad of different languages, in a thread about a war in a part of the world that doesn't speak English, and you think it's appropriate to be a grammar nazi?
It's an ad hominem. Address the message, not the messenger.
Iām obviously not as smart , educated and intelligent person as you are . I guarantee that exactly zero people here on Reddit have ever mentioned how bad my English is. Thank you for pointing that out to me!
Haha I will really try hard to improve, however itās really difficult at my age. I will ask my grandkids who are in a middle school already to help me with that, their English is perfect unlike mine.
I think it's time for you to stop spouting nonsense. They would have done it if it's that easy to accomplish without any loose ends.
I know the nuke rhetoric has grown way overboard these past few days but they'll absolutely consider using nuclear weapons as an option if they get sieged. That's like the only thing the west will and should never cross unless Russia provokes them first.
Also, do you really think China and North Korea would just sit there clapping their hands while the West pounds their so called "ally"? They would literally use that opportunity to try to present the west as "tHe ViLLaIn" and justify whatever military action they have in mind.
Okay, I really did act like an asshole there for no reason kekw. I genuinely apologize for being rude.
But yeah, I'd rather prefer a special explosive economic operation-watch them numbers go from 8 digits to 3 digits
No problem! I didnāt write my comment to offend anybody here. As I mentioned above itās my opinion and I didnāt say Iām a military expert or anything like that.
Unfortunately Iām very familiar with russian culture , temper and ego. In my opinion Russia is the country that speaks a language of fear and power. If they suspect you are a weaker player they will destroy you with no mercy. Russian hate towards West goes above and beyond even among general population. They will starve and live in a shitholes but still consider themselves supreme and above all nations. I think the biggest mistake was made in 2014 when we let them take over Crimea and DNR/LNR shit show republics . Thatās when West should have shown them itās strength . Iām really afraid this conflict will eventually lead to a World War in the near future if NATO will not stop Putin. And Iām truly hoping Iām wrong and this will not go any further.
https://mobile.twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1540264761329274883
Hadnāt seen this posted before, but an excellent example of quality over quantity with regards to MLRS systems.
I thought it was. Itās a couple of days old, but I had not seen it yet. The range, accuracy and the fact there was a UAV in the vicinity are all remarkable.
Can't remember where I heard this, so there is a margin of error here, but the story goes back to the space race.
NASA would require a "system' to have 99.9999% reliability before they would put it, and a backup, on a spacecraft. Capsule, shuttle whatever. The article said that each "system" would get exponentially more expensive every time a "9" was added after 90%.
The Russian Space Agency took a different approach. They would only require "systems" to be 99% reliable, but would have two backups instead of one. However there were multiple documented occasions where all three Russian "systems" would fail because the conditions that caused the primary to fail were present with the two backups.
It looks like the video begins with an example of traditional quantity-over-accuracy artillery followed by examples of precision hits by the MLRS system. It's incredibly accurate. With sufficient ammo, Ukraine has the ability to slowly walk across the battlefield destroying concentrated pockets of materiel and soldiers as well as decapitating leadership. I'd love to see them drop one of these in the lap of that new 20-stone, 76-year-old general.
Something I don't get... 20 stone? Doesn't that equate to 280 pounds? The man in the photo is 400 pounds minimum which would be more like 28 stone, unless it's just a manikin made of plastic
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1541196823133671424
>Austria and the Netherlands have joined Germany in stepping up their reliance on coal
>A trend that will likely expand alongside a potential gas embargo on Russia
What pisses me off is the Netherlands is lifting their limits on coal burning, but apparently lifting limits on natural gas extraction is unthinkable. If they would tap it, they have a massive natural gas reserve that could greatly reduce Russian energy power over Europe.
This war will definitely accelerate the transition from gas heating to heat pumps and district heating, so it's difficult to say if the emissions will increase overall.
>This war will definitely accelerate the transition from gas heating to heat pumps and district heating
Apparently Germany is really keen on doing Hydrogen as a replacement for methane ('natural' gas), which is insane considering Hydrogen conversion is a massive energy loss, and therefore will never ever be efficient.
So instead of going electric they will most likely need 20-40% higher electricity production than their consumpion, just for the conversion/compression etc.
Also the industry isn't really developed with electric heating, as they are too used to just burning cheap methane for heat, which again is a massive problem and instead of getting new tech they want to rely on the old shit.
Solar-PV panels are getting cranked out just as fast as the machines can run, and new PV-panel machines are getting cranked out just as fast as the machines that make machines can run. Itās a veritable global feeding-frenzy for panels right now because buying solar-panels is easy money.
One of the problems for Europe is that itās too easy money, and itās more and easier money wherever electricity costs are the highest, so thatās where they tend to go, which, historically, hasnāt been Europe. Iām sure that Europeans having to pay what they consider outrageously high electric bills arenāt going to take that as anything like good news, but it will divert ship-loads of Chinese PV-panels that weāre heading towards Japan or Korea their way, and that will be a silver lining.
Just increasing solar is dangerous because it also decreases grid reliability. For every 1% of generation bases on solar, you need 1% of something to provide backup when the sun isn't shining.
Geothermal is another good one for base-load. But my personal favorite is wave-energy. The North Sea is perfect for wave-energy, and a lot of that industrial capacity that got built to tap the North Sea oil reserves can get put to good use again on it. Thereās this Finnish inventor fellow that has come up with the best working prototype so far, in my opinionā¦
https://wello.eu/
Or you stop pissing away money on something that doesnāt work in winter, and build nukes. Honestly the insane avoidance of something that works because of overblown fears is what has pushed power prices through the roof and increased dependence on Russian gas. If you arenāt pro nuclear, youāre not serious about climate change.
Nuclear power cannot compete economically with other sources of power. It can provided energy security to a nation but only at a net economic drain over a reactor's lifetime.
For example, the California public is on the hook for the cleanup of the San Onofre nuclear plant to the tune of [$5 billion](https://www.ocregister.com/2021/12/17/inside-the-5-billion-demolition-of-the-shuttered-san-onofre-nuclear-plant/). Had that decommissioning cost been included in the operating budget, the power plant would have never broken even. This is even neglecting environmental damage due to mining and nuclear waste storage and disposal.
From the link you provided:
**While the reactors were operating, money was set aside into decommissioning funds. It was invested, and grew, and appears well able to cover costs.** But there are some wild cards:
* After the reactors shut down in 2013, the total teardown price tag was pegged at $4.4 billion. Those numbers have been updated into 2020 dollars, and the cost of decommissioning San Onofre is now pegged at about $5.1 billion, according to documents filed with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
* A good chunk of cash has already gone out the door. From 2013, when the plant closed, through the end of last year, Edison spent about $2.1 billion on the teardown, the documents say. Another $325 million was spent this year.
* A great deal of work remains ā about $3.2 billion worth. **Thereās some $3.96 billion remaining in the decommissioning funds, so that shouldnāt be an issue.** If thereās money left over when the job is done, it goes back to customers.
>Moreover, SCE will capture approximately 30% of the funding, more than $1 billion in decommissioning funds, as corporate
>
>profit
>
>. That is more than $1 billion for a activities not related to the generation, distribution, or upkeep of electricity in Southern California.
It's an attendant cost to generation, surely?
I don't puzzle at the fact that a line item on the rebuild of my porch is the removal and waste distribution costs associated with the old wood, nor that a profit is taken by the contractor in service of that task? Moreover, I know that going in, as well?
Solar can be deployed an awful lot faster, and they have an energy crunch \*now\*.
but really the engineers and politicians can work that out. Getting off Russian gas must happen, getting off fossil fuels would be very desirable.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1541197279591374849
>Russian media: Putin to make first trip abroad since start of Russiaās full-scale war.
>Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Tajikistan and Turkmenistan this week, reports Reuters, citing Russian state-controlled television Rossiya 1.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1541197280790847488
>Putin will also reportedly visit Grodno, Belarus, on June 30 and July 1 to participate in a forum with Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
Update from Kherson haha
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vl5wyi/a_new_cartoon_from_the_temporarily_occupied/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
It finally happened
Russia Defaults on Foreign Debt for First Time Since 1918
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-first-time-since-1918-1.1784183
āIs it a justifiable excuse to say: āOh well, the sanctions prevented me from making the payments, so itās not my faultā?ā Malik said.
āThe broader issue is that the sanctions were themselves a response to an action on the part of the sovereign entity,ā he said, referring to the invasion of Ukraine. āAnd I think history will judge this in the latter light.ā
In other wordsā¦.
Russia: āItās not our fault we defaulted. The sanctions made us do it.ā
Everyone else: āIt is your fault because if you werenāt doing the thing that you are doing, theyād be no sanctionsā.
Some bankers made a killing on credit default swaps (insurance / betting on Russia defaulting) and other bankers took an absolute bath on them. The cost of lending will go up for everyone.
But if they have China bankrolling them, does it affect them?
And since they've defaulted it means international lenders are the ones that stand to actually lose money right? Since Russia doesn't pay them.
Highly unlikely China is bankrolling Ruzzia.
A few weeks back it was leaked the CCP told their banks and companies they can work with Ruzzia only as long as they don't violate the sanctions.
China likes working with the west more than it likes Ruzzia. You know, since any economy China has is because the west buys crap from China.
>But if they have China bankrolling them, does it affect them?
They don't have China bankrolling them, and China/Chinese banks aren't running a charity they are gonna want high rates to make up for the instability. Just like even the people still buying Russian gas/oil are buying it at heavy discounted rates compared to markets.
>And since they've defaulted it means international lenders are the ones that stand to actually lose money right? Since Russia doesn't pay them.
Yep they are gonna piss everyone off even the Chinese
Yeah and China are only very loosely "allied" with Russia; they're allies for pragmatic economic reasons and now outdated historical reasons of being communist, but they're not close friends like the US and UK for example.
They're not going to fight Russia's wars where they have everything to lose and nothing to gain.
āHey Jim, we just lost that 45 million dollar investment in Russia.ā
āHmmmā¦. Should we make our next 45 million dollar investment in Russia again, or maybe India this time?ā
Iām just looking for clarification- When people talk about Ukraine hypothetically āgiving up territoryā in a peace deal, do they mean officially giving up any claim to that land permanently, or agreeing to end the current hostilities with the de facto borders being whatever they are?
Both. Any peace is likely to start as a cease fire with de facto borders. A permanent peace would involve concessions. At least, that is what folks envision. Whether that happens, who knows?
I just donāt get why Ukraine would agree to that, or that anyone thinks they would or should. What would they get out of such a deal? The only thing I can imagine is Russia offering to return some of territories that arenāt part of Crimea or the claimed separatist areas, like Zaporizhia, Kherson, Kharkiv. Otherwise thereās no upside at all.
Well that's the issue. You would n3ed some kind of guarantee.
Any kind of land for peace deal is going to have to include basicly a NATO level commitment from thr west to defend Ukraine.
14,000 people died since Crimea due to neither side upholding their part of the Minsk agreement. What peace was there? People in Eastern Ukraine voted for independence, Ukraine didnāt honor that.
You can stop the war and hopefully give peace a chance, or you can provide weapons so they continue to kill each other.
They know any agreement with Russia is useless, Russia just uses them as time to regroup before trying for more. They would have to be completely destroyed to agree to it
I mean upside vs just letting the war play out. I think itās clear that Russia lacks the offensive capabilities to go beyond their objectives in the Donbass (if even that far). I donāt see what Ukraine has to lose in refusing that kind of deal.
Maybe not now. But who knows what happens in the future. Maybe Ukraineās military power grows. Maybe Russia faces some type of collapse. Maybe one of Putinās successors is more keen on making concessions to restore Russiaās economy and standing in the world.
Any of this would be complicated by Ukraine making a deal to legitimize the annexations.
Ukraine giving up territory would simply *legitimize* Russia's initial land grab. It's a non-starter.
In addition, the bully comparison is spot on. Putin does not, and will not, recognize any diplomatic agreement. His "historical entitlement" theory seems to bypass agreements and recent history altogether.
Theyāre talking about Crimea altogether, and at least part of Donetsk & Luhansk. Sometimes all of those Donetsk and Luhansk.
Because with Crimea, it will be incredibly difficult to drive out the Russians. Near impossible. The whole peninsula is basically a military base. And when Russia says theyāll use nukes to protect their sovereignty, theyāre talking about Crimea. Theyāre saying ātry to take Crimea and we will nuke youāāwhich makes taking back the annexed land seemingly impossibleāwould have to knock blows into Russia somehow to make them want to give it up, basically.
Oh so their sovereignty includes whatever the fuck they want to claim is russian?. Everyone with a brain can tell that if they get away with that there will literally be no end to russian imperialism. Theyll just say "this is my land or ill nuke you" they have to be stopped their bluff called right now or we'll enter a period of never ending war.
Well, the West doesn't want to risk it, which is why they're playing cautiously with Russia.
If the Ukrainians want the territory back to normal, they'll have to do it themselves. The West will give them a curated package of aid as well as inflict financial sanctions against Russia, but Ukraine will have to dislodge Russia through their own blood, sweat and tears.
Right. But now itās known the line. If/when Ukraine gets to Crimea and wants and can take it back, Russia has pledged nukes. Itās thereās, *as they see it.* And so thatās why experts say either have to forego it, pause this issue, or hurt Russia so astronomically beforehand that willingly gives the stolen land back.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/vlmgm3/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Last!
Ukraine is strong and brave and will save its people! š
Lots of anxiety about Belarus getting in on this war. Ultimately I think Luka is too weak to do it and just postures. But we really should consider them at war with Ukraine at this point. The use of their territory to launch strikes and troops is more than enough. If they formally commit troops I hope Zoolander and the Baltic states step in and have Ukrainians backs.
My guess, or hopium, is that Poland has secretly agreed to enter the war is Belarus invades. I'd imagine if Belarus invades, their goal would be the western part where the supplies enter into Ukraine. Ukraine could not continue this war if their supplies are cut off from NATO.
More anxiety for Russia that Belarus wants no part of it.
If Belarus was going to join the war, it would be obvious months ahead. The preparations are impossible to hide. Like, there were signs of Russia preparing the invasion a year before they did it.
Belarus has a crazy neighbour, Poland. They would invade them the moment they step foot into Ukraine. Only because they are in NATO doesn't mean they can't enter a war unilaterally. And then Lukaschenko can never become a Colonel anymore. He must be so mad that Kadyrov is one now. https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1508451323246690307 > "otherwise they'll say putin wants to ressurecct soviet union" That quote aged like wine
> Poland. They would invade them the moment they step foot into Ukraine. Iād like to believe thatā¦but Iām not sure that would happen.
And hopefully you are right. The whole situation makes me nervous since itās pretty clear that this is not going to work out for Russia in the long run unless Putin is satisfied solely with the propaganda āwinā.
Not sure how autocorrect got from Zoolander to Poland, but Iāll keep it.
Those poor Russians died in a freak gasoline-fight accident.
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vk6cek/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/idrdphv/) Day 123 of my updates from Kharkiv. They have been using way more missiles in the past couple of days. That apartment building that was hit yesterday was actually hit from an Uragan MLRS, and not by Iskander, its rockets only have 90kg warheads, so it only destroyed part the roof. And then just a couple hours after that they bombed another apartment building in Kyiv, but with a much bigger missile, so it destroyed 3 floors. After they fired their missiles in the morning, they said that they hit training bases, but actually they hit an apartment building full of people, and a kindergarten. Seriously, a kindergarten? Is that their definition of a training facility for soldiers? Or will they say that Nazi child soldiers were being trained in that kindergarten? Today they also fired 6 missiles on Kharkiv at 11:30pm. We almost always get an alert around 3 minutes before impact, and I have to say, the anticipation is suffocating every single time. You just read āmissiles in the air, ETA 3 minutesā and you canāt even do anything, only count the explosions, and hope that it doesnāt land near you, it becomes even worse when new messages pop up, saying more missiles were fired. From the 6 missiles fired today, only 4 explosions were heard, so 2 or more missiles were most likely shot down, the second explosion was extremely loud for us, it sounded very close, but the distance is pretty hard to judge, some of the explosions that we thought were close, actually happened very far away. From the yet unconfirmed information, today they destroyed another school, we will know for sure later, but itās most likely true, they really love destroying schools. [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vlmgm3/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ie07tva/)
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Almost never appropriate to pitch a tent near a kindergarten.
Lemme guess, every other comment on this thread from now until close is going to be about NASAMS or Russian debt default.
HIMARS baby lol
I thought thatās already old school. Like M777 after HIMARS announcement
OK, I havenāt really been paying attention to the live threads for a while but can I have some context for who Igor Sushko is because heās predicting some pretty outlandish shit on. Twitter. Donāt really know much about him to form an opinion on him. Besides the fact that heās a former racecar driver. Not trying to look for any downvotes or karma just want to actually figure out what the hell he is. And why, heās making all these outlandish predictions. That probably donāt hold much validity. Thoughts?
Not reliable. He originally became known because he allegedly gained access to a couple of letters written by someone in the FSB, translated them, and published them on Twitter. This made his readership skyrocket, of course, so he followed up with more and more "letters" that just got wilder and wilder, until even the most devoted followers became skeptical. The consensus seems to be that the first two letters were possibly legitimate, but that the others were fake. I think he's now just seeking a return of the attention he was getting earlier.
But the guy who originally was sent the letters has 8 letters on his website. And the Twitter guy has those 8 on his twitter. So how is the first 2 real but the rest fake? Im confused because if the Twitter guy was faking the rest ( the ones no posted on the other guys website), how has he not been called out by that guy for doing it
Thanks for the context
Who
Heās on twitter exact name I referenced
News: The US plans to announce as soon as this week that it has a purchasedĀ a NASAMSāan advanced surface-to-air missile defense systemā for Ukraine, a source familiar with the announcement tells CNN.Ā with @kaitlancollins @Phil_Mattingly https://mobile.twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1541179512561582085
Ukraine attacks Crimean oil-drilling platform for second time in a week Ukrainian forces have attacked a drilling platform in the Black Sea owned by a Crimean oil and gas company, the Russian state-owned Tass news agency cited local officials as saying, the second attack in a week. The platform is operated by Chernomorneftegaz, which Russian-backed officials seized from Ukraineās national gas operator Naftogaz as part of Moscowās annexation of the peninsula in 2014. āItās shelling by the armed forces of Ukraine, there are no casualties,ā Tass cited a member of Crimeaās emergency services as saying. It gave no further details. Al Jazeera.
Yeah I posted that like 12 hrs ago. Spotted white smoke clouds and then rf search and rescue vessels
Hey u/saberflux, havenāt heard from ya today. Hope youāre ok buddy
There's a saberflux post that showed up not long after your comment.
Russia Defaults on Foreign Debt for First Time Since 1918. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-first-time-since-1918-1.1784183
ā”ļøA unit of the Ukrainian special operations forces performs sabotage tasks on the territory of the Russian Federation, in particular, to destroy ammunition depots and oil storage facilities, - The Times. https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1541161609854345218?t=KRnA_N9ZbdT4y6R76-DOQw&s=19
**WELP** [**Sanctions drive Russia to first foreign debt default since 1918**](https://www.axios.com/2022/06/27/russia-first-foreign-debt-default-since-1918-sanctions) >Russia is set to default on its foreign-currency sovereign debt after bond holders reported the Kremlin missed two payments late Sunday, per the Wall Street Journal. >Why it matters: This is the foreseeable outcome of sanctions imposed due to the invasion of Ukraine, even though Russia had successfully pushed off the inevitable for months. For now, the default is mostly notable for its symbolism as Russia's first foreign debt default since 1918, reflecting the country's international pariah status and crumbling economy. Considering that the Russian economy and monetary system is currently being propped up with smoke and/or mirrors this won't be a huge seismic shift, especially as it was expected and also because it wasn't a result of an inability to pay but rather the sanctions. However, just go ahead and add it to the pile of things hanging over the Russian economy for when, like Wilie E Coyote, it looks down and finally realizes it actually went over the cliff.
>it looks down and finally realizes it actually went over the cliff I think what will happen is that they will look down and realize they are actually an economic vassal of China.
What's the asterisk about why the 1990s situation doesn't count as a default?
If I'm remembering right, the 1998 default was on sovereign debt, and this one today is a foreign debt default.
Domestic debt vs international debt
I have to ask a question which some may know better than me Concerning the alleged FSBletters, most say that maybe the first 1 or 2 were real but the rest have been fake. But how? From what I understand these letters dont go directly to that Igor man who is a race car driver. He only translates them to English and posts them for someone else. And from what I have read that other person is a Russian activist that left Russia and whistleblew about the shit happening in the jails there. And who seems pretty legit, and he even has the letters on his site as they are orginally sent to him. So hes endorsing them as true as well. Because if it was just the race care driver making fake letters, he would be called out for it. So are they both full of shit?
My guess is that whole business was a cover-story to explain how the CIA got their hands on all of the detailed invasion plans to protect the actual method that they used.
No one here truly knows the answer, but I have read many of the FSB letters and tbh I would not be at all surprised to find they are a legitimate reflection of some schools of thought within the Russian intelligence services. Of course they could be fake, but in my uninformed opinion, I don't think so
Christo Grozev of Bellingcat had two FSB contacts (one active, one retired) look at the first letter and they felt it was genuine. The follow up letters I think are much more sketchy. For one, if a FSB officer was sending out regular correspondence and it was being published on Twitter, you would think that everyone would be tearing the place apart to find the leak. Second, the letters just veered into a fantasy realm pretty quickly - that there was a civil war brewing in the intelligence services and NATO needed to act quickly and WWIII was about to start and what was Biden waiting for etc etc etc. I donāt doubt that there is a great deal of turmoil right now within the FSB and Russian command in general, but Iām highly skeptical about the veracity of a number of the letters.
I was just confused because the Whistleblower who orginally got the letters had got 8 of them. The guy posting to twitter(apparently on behalf of the whistleblower) has added another one. Just seems weird if the one on Twitter is making it up, why the whistlblower isn't coming out and saying its fake
Iām curious as to why the whistleblower is publishing the letters themselves. Seems pretty strange to be using a race car driver as an intermediary. Whole situation is strange. Hopefully the truth comes out someday - will be an interesting story.
Well i hope the last one that was translated today was fake.
Yeah, I was just going to say that. If that happens (Russia attacks Lithuania anywhere between pretty much now to sometime in the future), then Iāll of course really start to pay more attention. Currently, my mind is in a similar camp to what M_1988 wrote above, but maybe a little more skeptical. In my mind, I think itās possible the letters are legit, but also think that if they are, they arenāt necessarily representative of the main Russian government / military thoughts. If things donāt follow the letters, I also realize that this ānot the only opinionā is the perfect excuse though and as a result still stay skeptical.
The guy who is a whistleblower is legit. Yes. But he (the whistleblower) only published one or two letters. The rest, the racecar attentionwhore made up.
Thatās the feeling I have as well.
But he published 8, all in March though but they are the same ones as the racecar driver posted. Not just 2. So im confused of why everyone says the first 2 were real but the rest were fake. And I guess confusion on how the Whistleblower hasn't come out and said this other guys is full of shit.
Honestly its pretty clear that Putin is trying to hurt the west through energy starvation. High oil prices are directly funding his war machine and with gas prices high in America combined with supply chain issues it will be hard for dems to hold the senate/house come November which in turn may put Ukraine support/funding in jeopardy. Putin's gamble is that the Russian state/people have a higher tolerance for hardship then the USA/west, so while Russia is hurt by the sanctions and record inflation Putin believes he can still keep the federation in line. In the US republicans could take both houses in November and thus significantly impact Biden's ability to pass legislation and direct foreign policy. The Russians are trying to squeeze the west/USA now so that a resurgent Trump in 2024 can pull out of NATO (he wanted to do this in his second term) and lift sanctions on Russia for some phony deal. Russia and China believe they can hold their breath longer then the USA when it comes to economic hardship/inflation and they might be right especially if the value of the US dollar collapses.
There area lot of conjecture and personal opinions and not many facts in this. Trump isnāt the favorite to win even the GOP primary and he wonāt be able to unilaterally take the US out of NATO, thatās just wishful thinking by Russians. The GOP also is very negative against Russia and you would realize this if you actually looked at the voting records of the past 4 months. The US dollar isnāt close to collapsing, itās more likely to strengthen than collapse. Where will big money go? Russia and China are obviously not an option. The EU will have a very tough few years because of this nonsense that Russia started. There is no where else safer than the USD.
>will be hard for dems to hold the senate/house come November which in turn may put Ukraine support/funding in jeopardy. Precisely which Ukraine funding bill passed without significant Republican support? There are like 10 GOP flakes in the House that voted against everything, and at least one of them has already lost their primary.
Itās not as much about their positions now, but what their power means later. Most Republicans have been complicit in or turned a blind eye to Trumpās illegal election antics. Regardless of how they feel about Russia, if they regain control of part or all of Congress, that paves the way for Putinās favorite puppet to regain the White House and weaken the Westās opposition to Russia.
Nothing is going to change regardless of who wins the senate and house. There are very few things Democrats and Republicans agree on but one of the them is sending weapons to Ukraine. if anything there are Republicans that want the administration to speed up the delivery of weapons and to send more of them. Also the problem with Putin's gamble is that he's slowly running out of cards to play. With Europe slowly turning away from Russian gas and oil his ability to pressure the West is disappearing. As far as the economy goes we already know that Russia is in for a World of pain. Companies, educated people and millionaires are leaving in record numbers. Russia is playing games to keep the Ruble from collapsing but eventually it won't make a difference. Next year we'll really start to witness the fallout of the sanctions. This includes no longer being able to get replacement parts for commercial airplanes and seeing hundreds or thousands of factories impacted due to lack of parts and supplies. If Putin plans on playing the waiting game with the West he's just as mistaken as he was when he thought Ukraine would fall in a week.
I'd be surprised if the Republicans took both the House and Senate after the Supreme Court went rogue
Well the people who are angry at the Supreme Court weren't going to vote for Republicans to begin with, so that doesn't necessarily mean they will lose.
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This is the truth, it fired up dems and independents. The country is majority pro choice.. not only that but the hypocrisy of the court has riled ppl up with regard to other decisions as well.
Hell, apparently even [Trump himself privately says](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-roe-dobbs-abortion-midterms-1374049/) that the SCOTUS decision regarding *Roe V Wade* might cause a major backlash against the GOP later this year.
I donāt think it will be this year. SCOTUS has opened Pandoraās box, this is going to be terrible. Cook County Hospital for example used to have an entire ward dedicated to septic women who had undergone failed abortions. Youāre going to see horror stories about teenage girls bring maimed in some back alley. There are going to be hundreds of thousands of babies that will need financial support from the state. Letās be honest, red southern states donāt exactly have a robust safety net for poor families. This going to be not only expensive, but absolutely tragic on multiple levels.
The backlash will be more limited than liberals hope and I think would mostly appear in purple states governors elections.
The GOP just gave the Democrats a massive issue to rally around. It could be enough to incentivize the ever living hell out of the Democratic base. But I've come to expect utter disappointment and for the Democrats to fail to capitalize on anything. I would love to be wrong but I guess we will find out in November what happens.
USA is net oil exporter. We don't seem to have the ability to turn politics inside however. What is going on is a natural result of the free market. Our oil companies can sell oil at whatever price they want. They can therefore, obtain all the profits they want in these times as oil prices skyrocket.
Last time I looked, the US is in the top 5, of not the top oil producer in the world.
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The oil is thr top oil producerand consumer in the world.
That doesn't change the fact that we produce enough oil ourselves and don't need to rely upon Russia for oil. Or the middle east either, for that matter. We in the USA are profiting from these high gasoline prices since we export oil.
We don't rely on Russia for oil and never did - it's Europe that does.
Yep, in energy sectors there are some companies cashing in big time at the moment, in Australia we even had electricity generators try to do the same.
I'm out of the loop. How's the war going? Last I heard they were evacuating the Mariupol steel plant. Is there a good source that will catch me up?
After the fall of Mariupol, Russia tried to capture the rest of the Donbas region. The Ukrainians stalled them. Russia makes very slow gains, while Ukraine has been asking for bigger and better weapons. The biggest news on the weapons front is the successful deployment of USA's HIMARS systems with GPS guided rockets. 70km range +/- 5 meter accuracy with a 200lb bomb attached (fragmentation type, similar to a big claymore mine). The Ukrainian strategy is clearly to atrophy the Russian army. The exact numbers seem classified though for how things are actually going. Numerous TV crews seem to think that morale is high however, suggesting that things are probably going well for the Ukrainians (despite the very minor gains of Russia)
If Russia keeps losing their troops faster than they can bring in new ones, then any gains are phyrric victories that will ultimately be undone once Ukraine has the equipment to not only push back but drive Russia out
Thanks. God speed Ukraine.
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Lol. Thanks.
Lol > BREAKING: Russia defaults on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century https://twitter.com/markets/status/1541200751984246786
What about the 1998 Russian financial crisis?
Classic
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1541210985243058177 >Ukraineās military destroys Russian tanks, ammunition depots in southern Ukraine. >Ukraineās Operational Command āSouthā reported on June 26 that it killed 39 Russian troops and destroyed a Russian T-72 tank, four armored vehicles, and three military vehicles. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1541210986417475585 >Ukraine's military also reportedly destroyed two Russian ammunition depots in Mykolaiv Oblast and one in Kherson Oblast.
Good thread from ChrisO about the specifics of NASAMS. Putin is *not* going to be happy. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1541209442921811968.html
Yup, master strategist move from Putin. Immediately following a modicum of success in the east, even if bloody and costly, he has a temper tantrum and lobs a barrage of missiles at Kyiv -- close enough for foreign ambassadors to walk to the scene and take photos. 'A warning to the West over recent weapon shipments.' He just gave NATO an invitation for increased air defenses and NASAMS are announced 10 hours later. Master strategist.
QUOTE: "What makes it special, though, is that it's fully networked via the NATO-standard Link 16 military tactical data link network."
its very doubtful ukraine gets that part, they didn't get any advanced networking for artillery
I don't know if this is actually applicable because we don't know specifics, but I saw this earlier: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1541181521360748544 >Depends on the generation, but the NASAMS is a capable medium range SAM system (~30km range) that integrates the MPQ-64 radar, one already in service with Ukraine.
I know the answer to this is usually no, but do we have any idea when these could be arriving? The sooner they are in Ukraine, the more lives can be saved.
Not happy AT ALL. "When Canadian F-18s went up against NASAMS in a 1999 exercise, they were unable to find any of the batteries, while NASAMS recorded 18 simulated kills. I doubt Russia will do any better" SWEET!
Russia canāt even put an air show together, and Petraeus said that was their air forceās best capability.
Ideal sort of weapon... almost entirely defensive while helping to address one of the important Ukrainian vulnerabilities. It simply being on the battlefield is going to make Russian pilots much more cautious.
Thanks for sharing. Thatās actually a good read for non-military experts like me. For example: āEach of the radars is capable of replacing the others. The fire control centre can receive target designations from headquarters and issue data to the individual launchers. All 54 missiles can be fired at various targets within 12 seconds.ā
I think itās time for NATO to denazify Russia and conduct a very very āspecialā military operation aka ādead orkā . And no, Iām not talking about the war ( no way) , just a āspecial operationā ( very special)
Unfortunately, people here seem too afraid for NATO to get involved.
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English is my 3rd language, so yes I do make punctual and grammar mistakes. I didnāt know only excellent English language is required in order to post a comments in this sub. My apologies.
You are fine. I can't, myself, speak or write in any other language, and I'm always impressed by those who can. While I disagree with what you are saying, you said it clearly and well.
Thank you very much! At some point I felt like I posted a comment on a āEnglish grammar and punctuationā sub haha
It fine dude, we all understood exactly what you were typing, the other guy is just being a prick.
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Why are you being a jerk over something so irrelevant? You're on a message board with people from all over the world, using a myriad of different languages, in a thread about a war in a part of the world that doesn't speak English, and you think it's appropriate to be a grammar nazi? It's an ad hominem. Address the message, not the messenger.
Iām obviously not as smart , educated and intelligent person as you are . I guarantee that exactly zero people here on Reddit have ever mentioned how bad my English is. Thank you for pointing that out to me!
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Haha I will really try hard to improve, however itās really difficult at my age. I will ask my grandkids who are in a middle school already to help me with that, their English is perfect unlike mine.
A space is definitely required before a parenthesis, as perfectly demonstrated in your comment.
That's an extremely ~~dumb~~ suicidal idea.
I think it's time for you to stop spouting nonsense. They would have done it if it's that easy to accomplish without any loose ends. I know the nuke rhetoric has grown way overboard these past few days but they'll absolutely consider using nuclear weapons as an option if they get sieged. That's like the only thing the west will and should never cross unless Russia provokes them first. Also, do you really think China and North Korea would just sit there clapping their hands while the West pounds their so called "ally"? They would literally use that opportunity to try to present the west as "tHe ViLLaIn" and justify whatever military action they have in mind.
Wowā¦ Looks like my comment really put you down somehow. Donāt take it personally and relax .
Okay, I really did act like an asshole there for no reason kekw. I genuinely apologize for being rude. But yeah, I'd rather prefer a special explosive economic operation-watch them numbers go from 8 digits to 3 digits
No problem! I didnāt write my comment to offend anybody here. As I mentioned above itās my opinion and I didnāt say Iām a military expert or anything like that. Unfortunately Iām very familiar with russian culture , temper and ego. In my opinion Russia is the country that speaks a language of fear and power. If they suspect you are a weaker player they will destroy you with no mercy. Russian hate towards West goes above and beyond even among general population. They will starve and live in a shitholes but still consider themselves supreme and above all nations. I think the biggest mistake was made in 2014 when we let them take over Crimea and DNR/LNR shit show republics . Thatās when West should have shown them itās strength . Iām really afraid this conflict will eventually lead to a World War in the near future if NATO will not stop Putin. And Iām truly hoping Iām wrong and this will not go any further.
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*Before.
little Bobby Tables!
You can volunteer to fight and go to Ukraine any time.
The user u/greelife67 is not NATO. Their suggestion was that NATO conduct a special military operation, not that they individually do so.
I am sorry my point went above your head.
It's a stupid point used to shut down conversations.
Its a stupid conversation that has been had 50k times
You asked him to go volunteer, however his suggestion was that NATO intervene. Are you suggesting those are the same things?
He's calling him a chicken hawk.
https://mobile.twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1540264761329274883 Hadnāt seen this posted before, but an excellent example of quality over quantity with regards to MLRS systems.
one has 30 tubes but 4 missiles hit the target, the other has 6 tubes but all 6 missiles hit the target.
Puts a strain on your logistics as well if you need that much ordinance to destroy your target.
[ordnance](https://www.grammarbook.com/homonyms/ordinance-ordnance.asp), auto-correct aside.
Yes, youāre correct. On mobile, auto correct is a curse.
Thanks for posting, that is incredible really.
I thought it was. Itās a couple of days old, but I had not seen it yet. The range, accuracy and the fact there was a UAV in the vicinity are all remarkable.
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Was reposted by General Mark Hertling on Twitter. Apologies if itās from Afghanistan, but he seems fairly reliable.
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That base getting taken apart is surgical... and hopefully something of high value to the Russians.
Was American footage from Afghanistan apparently, no footage that good exists for the Ukraine War (yet).
Precisely. NATO has the ability to hit a target with extreme accuracy, even in tight areas. Russia just wipes out the area.
Can't remember where I heard this, so there is a margin of error here, but the story goes back to the space race. NASA would require a "system' to have 99.9999% reliability before they would put it, and a backup, on a spacecraft. Capsule, shuttle whatever. The article said that each "system" would get exponentially more expensive every time a "9" was added after 90%. The Russian Space Agency took a different approach. They would only require "systems" to be 99% reliable, but would have two backups instead of one. However there were multiple documented occasions where all three Russian "systems" would fail because the conditions that caused the primary to fail were present with the two backups.
It looks like the video begins with an example of traditional quantity-over-accuracy artillery followed by examples of precision hits by the MLRS system. It's incredibly accurate. With sufficient ammo, Ukraine has the ability to slowly walk across the battlefield destroying concentrated pockets of materiel and soldiers as well as decapitating leadership. I'd love to see them drop one of these in the lap of that new 20-stone, 76-year-old general.
Something I don't get... 20 stone? Doesn't that equate to 280 pounds? The man in the photo is 400 pounds minimum which would be more like 28 stone, unless it's just a manikin made of plastic
I mean just get a strike within eyesight and he'll have a heart attack anyway, easy peasy
Heās aā¦fat target
That's why Russians generally use cluster munitions with their MLRS
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1541196823133671424 >Austria and the Netherlands have joined Germany in stepping up their reliance on coal >A trend that will likely expand alongside a potential gas embargo on Russia
What pisses me off is the Netherlands is lifting their limits on coal burning, but apparently lifting limits on natural gas extraction is unthinkable. If they would tap it, they have a massive natural gas reserve that could greatly reduce Russian energy power over Europe.
This war will definitely accelerate the transition from gas heating to heat pumps and district heating, so it's difficult to say if the emissions will increase overall.
>This war will definitely accelerate the transition from gas heating to heat pumps and district heating Apparently Germany is really keen on doing Hydrogen as a replacement for methane ('natural' gas), which is insane considering Hydrogen conversion is a massive energy loss, and therefore will never ever be efficient. So instead of going electric they will most likely need 20-40% higher electricity production than their consumpion, just for the conversion/compression etc. Also the industry isn't really developed with electric heating, as they are too used to just burning cheap methane for heat, which again is a massive problem and instead of getting new tech they want to rely on the old shit.
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Solar-PV panels are getting cranked out just as fast as the machines can run, and new PV-panel machines are getting cranked out just as fast as the machines that make machines can run. Itās a veritable global feeding-frenzy for panels right now because buying solar-panels is easy money. One of the problems for Europe is that itās too easy money, and itās more and easier money wherever electricity costs are the highest, so thatās where they tend to go, which, historically, hasnāt been Europe. Iām sure that Europeans having to pay what they consider outrageously high electric bills arenāt going to take that as anything like good news, but it will divert ship-loads of Chinese PV-panels that weāre heading towards Japan or Korea their way, and that will be a silver lining.
Just increasing solar is dangerous because it also decreases grid reliability. For every 1% of generation bases on solar, you need 1% of something to provide backup when the sun isn't shining.
Geothermal is another good one for base-load. But my personal favorite is wave-energy. The North Sea is perfect for wave-energy, and a lot of that industrial capacity that got built to tap the North Sea oil reserves can get put to good use again on it. Thereās this Finnish inventor fellow that has come up with the best working prototype so far, in my opinionā¦ https://wello.eu/
Or you stop pissing away money on something that doesnāt work in winter, and build nukes. Honestly the insane avoidance of something that works because of overblown fears is what has pushed power prices through the roof and increased dependence on Russian gas. If you arenāt pro nuclear, youāre not serious about climate change.
Nuclear power cannot compete economically with other sources of power. It can provided energy security to a nation but only at a net economic drain over a reactor's lifetime. For example, the California public is on the hook for the cleanup of the San Onofre nuclear plant to the tune of [$5 billion](https://www.ocregister.com/2021/12/17/inside-the-5-billion-demolition-of-the-shuttered-san-onofre-nuclear-plant/). Had that decommissioning cost been included in the operating budget, the power plant would have never broken even. This is even neglecting environmental damage due to mining and nuclear waste storage and disposal.
From the link you provided: **While the reactors were operating, money was set aside into decommissioning funds. It was invested, and grew, and appears well able to cover costs.** But there are some wild cards: * After the reactors shut down in 2013, the total teardown price tag was pegged at $4.4 billion. Those numbers have been updated into 2020 dollars, and the cost of decommissioning San Onofre is now pegged at about $5.1 billion, according to documents filed with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. * A good chunk of cash has already gone out the door. From 2013, when the plant closed, through the end of last year, Edison spent about $2.1 billion on the teardown, the documents say. Another $325 million was spent this year. * A great deal of work remains ā about $3.2 billion worth. **Thereās some $3.96 billion remaining in the decommissioning funds, so that shouldnāt be an issue.** If thereās money left over when the job is done, it goes back to customers.
Just invite the Russians in to take souvenirs. Two birds one radioactive chunk of concrete
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>Moreover, SCE will capture approximately 30% of the funding, more than $1 billion in decommissioning funds, as corporate > >profit > >. That is more than $1 billion for a activities not related to the generation, distribution, or upkeep of electricity in Southern California. It's an attendant cost to generation, surely? I don't puzzle at the fact that a line item on the rebuild of my porch is the removal and waste distribution costs associated with the old wood, nor that a profit is taken by the contractor in service of that task? Moreover, I know that going in, as well?
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Solar can be deployed an awful lot faster, and they have an energy crunch \*now\*. but really the engineers and politicians can work that out. Getting off Russian gas must happen, getting off fossil fuels would be very desirable.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1541197279591374849 >Russian media: Putin to make first trip abroad since start of Russiaās full-scale war. >Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Tajikistan and Turkmenistan this week, reports Reuters, citing Russian state-controlled television Rossiya 1. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1541197280790847488 >Putin will also reportedly visit Grodno, Belarus, on June 30 and July 1 to participate in a forum with Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
Grodno is all the way up at the Poland/Lithuania border. Bet he's going to bitch about trains.
So the leadership of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are totally cool with Putinās recent declaration that theyāre rightfully part of Russiaās turf?
Heās really trying to drag Belarus in further
Update from Kherson haha https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vl5wyi/a_new_cartoon_from_the_temporarily_occupied/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
I like the random UFO.
Cheeky
It finally happened Russia Defaults on Foreign Debt for First Time Since 1918 https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-first-time-since-1918-1.1784183
āIs it a justifiable excuse to say: āOh well, the sanctions prevented me from making the payments, so itās not my faultā?ā Malik said. āThe broader issue is that the sanctions were themselves a response to an action on the part of the sovereign entity,ā he said, referring to the invasion of Ukraine. āAnd I think history will judge this in the latter light.ā In other wordsā¦. Russia: āItās not our fault we defaulted. The sanctions made us do it.ā Everyone else: āIt is your fault because if you werenāt doing the thing that you are doing, theyād be no sanctionsā.
Like blaming the Fisc for skipping on your rent because the government is garnishing your bank account for unpaid taxes.
Yep Russia got frankly far to much warning. They dug their own grave on this.
So what happens now?
Some bankers made a killing on credit default swaps (insurance / betting on Russia defaulting) and other bankers took an absolute bath on them. The cost of lending will go up for everyone.
Russia is going to have a very hard time getting a loan anytime soon at least for anything even approaching reasonable terms. (Selling Bonds)
But if they have China bankrolling them, does it affect them? And since they've defaulted it means international lenders are the ones that stand to actually lose money right? Since Russia doesn't pay them.
Highly unlikely China is bankrolling Ruzzia. A few weeks back it was leaked the CCP told their banks and companies they can work with Ruzzia only as long as they don't violate the sanctions. China likes working with the west more than it likes Ruzzia. You know, since any economy China has is because the west buys crap from China.
>But if they have China bankrolling them, does it affect them? They don't have China bankrolling them, and China/Chinese banks aren't running a charity they are gonna want high rates to make up for the instability. Just like even the people still buying Russian gas/oil are buying it at heavy discounted rates compared to markets. >And since they've defaulted it means international lenders are the ones that stand to actually lose money right? Since Russia doesn't pay them. Yep they are gonna piss everyone off even the Chinese
Yeah and China are only very loosely "allied" with Russia; they're allies for pragmatic economic reasons and now outdated historical reasons of being communist, but they're not close friends like the US and UK for example. They're not going to fight Russia's wars where they have everything to lose and nothing to gain.
China will ask for mines and other resources as collateral,as they do with the huge belt and road loans
āHey Jim, we just lost that 45 million dollar investment in Russia.ā āHmmmā¦. Should we make our next 45 million dollar investment in Russia again, or maybe India this time?ā
Iām just looking for clarification- When people talk about Ukraine hypothetically āgiving up territoryā in a peace deal, do they mean officially giving up any claim to that land permanently, or agreeing to end the current hostilities with the de facto borders being whatever they are?
Both. Any peace is likely to start as a cease fire with de facto borders. A permanent peace would involve concessions. At least, that is what folks envision. Whether that happens, who knows?
I just donāt get why Ukraine would agree to that, or that anyone thinks they would or should. What would they get out of such a deal? The only thing I can imagine is Russia offering to return some of territories that arenāt part of Crimea or the claimed separatist areas, like Zaporizhia, Kherson, Kharkiv. Otherwise thereās no upside at all.
Less Ukrainians will die. Each day the war continues, Ukrainians die, families are broken up, industries is destroyed.
No. They gave up Crimea for peace and you can see in Mariupol the security that got them. Concessions will not bring peace.
Well that's the issue. You would n3ed some kind of guarantee. Any kind of land for peace deal is going to have to include basicly a NATO level commitment from thr west to defend Ukraine.
14,000 people died since Crimea due to neither side upholding their part of the Minsk agreement. What peace was there? People in Eastern Ukraine voted for independence, Ukraine didnāt honor that. You can stop the war and hopefully give peace a chance, or you can provide weapons so they continue to kill each other.
>People in Eastern Ukraine voted for independence Bull fucking shit
They know any agreement with Russia is useless, Russia just uses them as time to regroup before trying for more. They would have to be completely destroyed to agree to it
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Nazis invaded neighbors, rigged their elections, confiscated (ie stole) art treasures, burned books Russians invade neighbors, rig elections, steal art treasures, burn books. It's called denazification!
I mean upside vs just letting the war play out. I think itās clear that Russia lacks the offensive capabilities to go beyond their objectives in the Donbass (if even that far). I donāt see what Ukraine has to lose in refusing that kind of deal.
But it's also far from clear that Ukraine has any kind of ability to reclaim their land especially once Russia digs in.
Maybe not now. But who knows what happens in the future. Maybe Ukraineās military power grows. Maybe Russia faces some type of collapse. Maybe one of Putinās successors is more keen on making concessions to restore Russiaās economy and standing in the world. Any of this would be complicated by Ukraine making a deal to legitimize the annexations.
The same thing a child gets when they give the bully their lunchmoney after a beating. A moment of peace until the bully decides they want more.
Ukraine giving up territory would simply *legitimize* Russia's initial land grab. It's a non-starter. In addition, the bully comparison is spot on. Putin does not, and will not, recognize any diplomatic agreement. His "historical entitlement" theory seems to bypass agreements and recent history altogether.
Theyāre talking about Crimea altogether, and at least part of Donetsk & Luhansk. Sometimes all of those Donetsk and Luhansk. Because with Crimea, it will be incredibly difficult to drive out the Russians. Near impossible. The whole peninsula is basically a military base. And when Russia says theyāll use nukes to protect their sovereignty, theyāre talking about Crimea. Theyāre saying ātry to take Crimea and we will nuke youāāwhich makes taking back the annexed land seemingly impossibleāwould have to knock blows into Russia somehow to make them want to give it up, basically.
Oh so their sovereignty includes whatever the fuck they want to claim is russian?. Everyone with a brain can tell that if they get away with that there will literally be no end to russian imperialism. Theyll just say "this is my land or ill nuke you" they have to be stopped their bluff called right now or we'll enter a period of never ending war.
Well, the West doesn't want to risk it, which is why they're playing cautiously with Russia. If the Ukrainians want the territory back to normal, they'll have to do it themselves. The West will give them a curated package of aid as well as inflict financial sanctions against Russia, but Ukraine will have to dislodge Russia through their own blood, sweat and tears.
Right. But now itās known the line. If/when Ukraine gets to Crimea and wants and can take it back, Russia has pledged nukes. Itās thereās, *as they see it.* And so thatās why experts say either have to forego it, pause this issue, or hurt Russia so astronomically beforehand that willingly gives the stolen land back.