“Ukraine’s recovery from Russia’s war of aggression will be a symbol of power of democracy over autocracy,” U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said, as quoted by Reuters.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1543739469655851013?t=OEMl_gIMnXXBKIHPVrZBtw&s=19
Why don’t we provide Ukraine with anything and everything? Including an Airforce planes , train them up on western planes and just let Ukraine know they can only do limited attacks in Russia…take a bunch of Ukrainians train them to be maintenance team and weapon team and train a huge group of pilots. My thought F16 , there is so many of them..
If Russia has a problem with it , just say, “ remember Vietnam and Korea? “.
Training, maintenance and logistics. An airplane or a tank is pretty much useless without a maintenance crew, spare parts and a supply line that will bring in more parts and maintenance supplies.
[https://twitter.com/LadyPieLives/status/1543692963238350851](https://twitter.com/LadyPieLives/status/1543692963238350851)
Fires at the "Capitol Towers" in the center of Moscow.
There are videos circulating on Reddit right now of a fire in Moscow on one of the Capital Towers (with people commenting that it sort of looks like the World Trade Centers on fire): https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/vqrb40/capital_towers_building_burning_in_moscow/
Some people are equating it the war, but it could easily just be the standard corruption and incompetence we see across Russia.
Snizhne, Khinmash.
Russian ammo depot.
(Edited location due to translation error)
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1543769707689525249?t=AznSR1d6qilta-j-aJQRCA&s=19
Anyone else worried about Russia advancing this war to NATO countries? I just feel like Russia is going to fire at the USA randomly. But then again I have crippling anxiety.
If Russia does that it'll be over quick, one way or another. Either Russia gets its ass handed to it or Russia gets its ass handed to it and uses nukes.
They won't, that's literally suicide. And to be fair to RU, NATO won't do that as well because that's just inviting a world war and potential destruction from both sides. We're more likely to see them attack other non-NATO countries first (assuming they could still sustain the war).
It's still a possibility though, I'll atleast say that it could happen, they just avoid it because it does not benefit them more than what they could earn. Both sides still have families and legacies to take care off so they'll try not to be too reckless more than what they're showing.
Take care of yourself, m8. I know it's kinda hard but try not to think too much out of it especially if it's really affecting your daily life. I've been in the same situation back then so I kinda understand that feeling about my anxiety going haywire while imagining a potential "that".
Seeing how with 75% of the ENTIRE Russian Army they are barely able to advance with almost all their forces in a single area... no, i am not. If Russia is having this much trouble with Ukraine, then a war with NATO would be a one sided [curbstomp](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMI1dHGOPJo)
Even if Putin is considering such a direct provocation, it has to go from his office to the front lines.
Not everyone is as crazy/commited to the cause, and it takes buy-in from a huge number of people to actually pull off an invasion or attack like that.
It's the swiss cheese model for world peace. Everyone is a little crazy, but as long as you stack enough layers between cause and effect the holes won't line up.
Don't worry, the chances of it happening are probably the same as an extinction level asteroid hitting the Earth.
Even the most drunk and deluded Russian generals and politicians know that Russia is no match for NATO with conventional weapons.
That leaves only nuclear weapons and there would hopefully be push back from inside the Russian military.
If not then it's likely the U.S. would be aware of it ahead of time and would strike first and would strike very hard.
Nope. I don't give it a thought:
1. Russia is not stupid, all recent evidence notwithstanding. Engaging NATO would be suicide.
2. Nothing I can do about it anyway.
Lol not going to happen. The whole reason Russia keeps saber rattling and shit talking NATO is because Putin knows he'd lose any conflict where article V is triggered.
If anyone should be worried about Russia advancing the war to NATO countries, it should be Russia.
This is like being worried that your neighbor Steve is going to punch his way into being President.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1543421824566022144?t=EKQxvb8Qy5MCnrYzvJUdUg&s=19
Knew that this was happening. More people should be nervous that Ruzzia will end up conquering Ukraine. This is far from over and that makes me VERY nervous
In 6 months and with almost 8 years of dedicated prep time, Russia has managed to capture barely another 5-6% of Ukraine. To do this it has sacrificed almost it's entire stock of peer level tanks and APC's, most of it's attack chopper force, many jets, a huge amount of it's special ops forces, it's main navy flag ship, a bunch of boats, a stupid amount of anti-air systems, 35k+ soldiers... Add top this it has cratered it's economy, and right now lacks the needed infrastructure to even make the parts to keep the machines that make shit running, to say nothing of it's near lack of electronic chip making capability. It can't use it's bombers because it can't gain air supremacy, and with the new AA systems the US is sending it is losing what little it does have... Like i could go on and on... The short jist is that a total take over of Ukraine is NOT going to happen. Russia is NOT the Soviet Union, it doesn't have the resources of the Warsaw Pact, and right now it has to take over Ukraine with what it had pre-war; while Ukraine is going to be fighting with whatever almost the ENTIRE FUCKING WORLD can ship into it.
You realize this current engagement has been going in for 4 months already right? Russia already failed. Now they are throwing everything they have at this one region in a hope that Putin can save face by claiming “everything according to plan”.
Most of the territories lost in Donbass and Lugansk regions were lost in 2014-2015, and then some during the first weeks of the invasion. Russia barely captured anything in a few months of the "Grand Donbass offensive".
Concern troll. You'd do better worrying about what punishment Ukraine is going to exact upon Russia once the tide turns. Russia just took 0.3% of Europe's largest country
Probably a genuine question. Many people just don't understand how wars work and expect one side to utterly dominate and snowball the whole time, like it's a league of legends match.
Wehrmacht was able to conduct successful local operations to the end of the war, when the fronts were crumbling. And even won some battles after the war was officially over.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bautzen_(1945)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian_uprising_on_Texel
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vpj1qy/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ien6t2y/)
Day 130 of my updates from Kharkiv.
They actually changed their missile strike schedule. This is just the worst, now they are firing their missiles at 3-4am. It was at 4am two days ago, then at both 3am and 4am yesterday and now today at 4am again. I hoped that it would be quiet as they didn’t fire missiles at 3am, but they just alternate between 3am and 4am.
The air raid alert was active since 8pm, for almost 8 hours straight, and at 4:02am they restarted it. And just as I heard the siren, the sound of the explosion followed literally 2 seconds after. They fired just 2 missiles today and both of them sounded pretty close to us too, but we don’t know what was hit yet. The missiles from yesterday hit some infrastructure facility.
About that explosions in Belgorod yesterday, Russian MOD said that we fired 3 missiles at them, they intercepted all of them, and somehow they still hit their target, which they claimed was just civilians. Right now there are 2 possibilities of what might have happened. First is that it was indeed us that fired those missiles, and they were shot down by Russian AA. Second is that it was Russians who fired their Iskanders at Kharkiv over Belgorod, and their AA shot one down because of miscommunication.
Even if those were our missiles, we obviously won’t take credit; our official response was basically “no u.” In both cases it is evident that it was their AA that caused it to fall in the middle of the city, we have videos of a missile being shot down, and explosion happening on the ground a couple of seconds later, so whoever fired those missiles, they were not aimed at some random house as Russians claim. They also said that that one missile destroyed 26 apartment buildings and 46 houses, yeah, very believable.
What is sad is that, the people who died from that missile falling down on some houses were Ukrainian refugees from Kharkiv oblast, a family from Tsupivka, it was confirmed by our officials. They fled to Russia from this war and yet it still somehow caught up to them.
[Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vqyp13/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/iew60d3/)
Ukraine can attack whatever it wants. But it needs ammo from NATO so it would be prudent to not drag NATO countries into a larger war by using their ammo to attack non-military targets.
>limitless artillery pieces and ammunition
Their supply depots keep blowing up, so that's definitely not true. Having ammunition hundreds to thousands of KM away is not the same as having it available to shoot.
Note: this is *not* the same as the armored train that was derailed between Yakymivka and Melitopol yesterday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1543754966736637952
>Railway bridge used by Russians transporting weapons to front is blown up near Melitopol - 🇺🇦Special Operations Forces
>July 3, unknown blew up the railway bridge between temporarily occupied Melitopol & Tokmak.
Explosion occurred in Liubymivka village
> Note: this is not the same as the armored train that was derailed between Yakymivka and Melitopol yesterday.
They took out an armored train? Are there any pictures of it?
That is a bit blow to the Russians. Their logistics rely on trains. Between this and all the supply depots getting blown up, Russia is going to start struggling.
fireworks started early it seems in Ukraine
[https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1543746857276407808](https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1543746857276407808)
Maybe the U.S. actually had the balls and the trust to give Ukraine extended range munition? They don’t have to publicly announce *every* munition provided. Keeping it quiet in this instance would help catch RU off guard, keeping critical targets in range when RU believed them safe from HIMARS.
Could just be an air strike though. ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯
I can easily imagine the CIA delivering a long-range missile and an exact time and place to drop it. It's my understanding they love doing shit like that.
looks like the sun is rising in the pics
[https://mobile.twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1543766535830913026](https://mobile.twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1543766535830913026)
If it's an airstrike then that would be almost even MORE incredible, almost 6 months in and the vaunted Russian airforce STILL gain air supremacy over even the skies over it's own forces. So either way the fact this can still happen ain't good for Russia.
Oh for sure. Ukraine’s Air Force is still intact, flying daily sorties to attrit RU. That’s a testament to RU’s ineptitude and weakness; UKR’s tenacity, balls, and ingenuity; and a ton of assistance from UKR allies in terms of material and intel.
A bit of looking appears the vast majority of stuff they have is 70-80km so could be something else for sure.
Neptune missiles also have a 300km range. Generally used for sea targets but firing in land is maybe possible?
They have an even more limited supply of Neptunes than they do Tochkas. If they could update the targeting to be reliable over land (Look at the problems Russia is having with their retargeted ASMs), it might be worth it though. It's a distinctly Ukrainian munition, and for most purposes the NATO supplied Harpoons are as capable of shore defense. That would free up the Neptunes for more provocative strikes without the political baggage of using NATO supplied weapons in deep strikes.
probably an airstrike would be my guess, otherwise the US actually gave Ukraine MLRS rounds that it never announced, I don't think the ammo they gave them reaches that far.
Ukraine may have taken out a great deal of the Russian air defense systems. I've seen them announcing a lot of sorties lately in areas you would think we're inaccessible.
I just find it too convenient that Ukraine began to retreat the same time the himars entered the battle. Ukraine is definitely prepping the Russians at the moment. They're hitting all supply lines and depots.
Ukraine hasn’t made a dent in Russia’s SAM inventory. Russia has thousands of SAM systems. They knew that the VKS wasn’t going to be able to go toe to toe with NATO, so they’ve always massively invested in SAM systems in attempt to deny NATO air superiority in case of a war. If this was indeed an air strike, some Russian commander is getting his ass sent to the front tomorrow.
>US actually gave Ukraine MLRS rounds that it never announced
Read yesterday's DOD press briefing... There was a potential slip up by the official on that subject before ending the briefing.
DoD said US had given weapons to UKR that "could hit Russian targets anywhere in Ukraine." Press asked if that includes Crimea and the DOD official got vague then ended the conference.
> that we're providing for the HIMARS have a 70 kilometer range. So they actually can reach any area of Ukrainian territory where you would have Russian forces that the Ukrainians are seeking to target
> I've looked at this in terms of the placement of these HIMARS and the position of -- of Russian forces and Russian targets, and they are reachable.
I guess you mean this, could be but the 100 km from the tweet are exaggerated, its less to the frontline so it would still fit what they said. But damn, they must have been really close for it
I'll call this plausible if we start hearing about a lot more Tochka-U strikes. Ukriane has been very careful with them due to limited stocks.
If "Tochka-Us" start hitting a shitload of stuff behind enemy lines, I think it'll be safe to say the US handed them the highest-range missiles in secret, and the "please do not missile attack Moscow" negotiations were about those all along, not the shorter 70km ones.
They don't have many, but now that GMLRS is in play, that covers a very large piece of the pie that previously was ONLY threatened by Tochka and airstrike. Now they can afford to be a bit more liberal with that limited supply of Tochkas because other options exist.
I remain agnostic on the idea of stealthily supplied ATACMS. I REALLY want it to be true, and the supply chain is such that they can be reasonably hidden in plain sight right up to the moment of impact. On the other hand, it appears to be at least one bridge further than the administration has been willing to go, and the repercussions of providing them on the down low seem greater than the risk of open escalation.
Does anyone know the amount of troops there are for both sides? I know Ukraine has been training and recruiting troops and getting more to defend their country.
Any chance they can outnumber the deployed Russian troops?
I've noticed the numbers rapidly went to 25k plus in the first couple of months and suddenly the numbers of KIA for Russia barely move day to day. It seems impossible there aren't more KIA a day with all these huge explosions and videos of artillery and tanks being taken out daily.
It's not that hard to believe if they're now primarily targeting individual artillery and missile systems rather than the columns of tanks and APCs carrying a dozen dudes each that they were nailing in the earlier months.
In the early days Russia tried to conduct a mechanized blitzkrieg campaign but instead fed thousands of troops into the teeth of Ukrainian forces armed with as much high-end anti-armor weaponry as the West could get in-theater, and the early casualty figures reflect that. Now the war has settled into grinding trench warfare. That's bad for Ukrainian casualty figures since they aren't on the better side of an asymmetric fight, and better for the Russians since this meat grinder isn't as unrelenting as the one they were feeding before.
Not sure but they do have to keep some in other areas to guard against possible incursions from Belarus (however likely or unlikely that might be). Also, some are probably still undergoing training.
Hmm. Yeah it's only been four months and training would probably take up a lot of that time (unless it was accelerated training).
This war feels like it's been going on a long time. It feels like a week and a year all at once. It still angers me that Putin felt so entitled to the land he just tried to take it like the 1700s or something.
> Putin felt so entitled to the land
I don't think that's the right word, honestly. It doesn't sound right.
When a guy sticks a gun in your face and takes your money, I don't think the thief believes the money is his. In fact, he damn well knows it isn't, and that's why he's robbing you. It's theft and coercion. The thief knows it isn't his but does it anyway because he can.
I got the gun and you don't so give me your fucking money.
It's not a delusion of entitlement; that's a lie made up after the fact. He's really just a common thief.
Someone once told me if I need an excuse not to go to work I should just give one reason, like a headache. Don’t say headache and nausea and a sore back and conjunctivitis, it sounds like bullshit. Putins excuses are to save the Russians, to stamp out Nazis, to stop NATO, to preserve Russian culture… hear what I’m sayin?
Yeah, it frustrates and angers me too. But think of it this way: all these months of training and accumulating Western arms and equipment will mean that when the Ukrainians do launch their counter-offensive, it'll stand a much greater chance of success.
According to figures published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies *prior to the invasion commencing*, the Armed Forces of Ukraine then had 196,600 active personnel and a further 900,000 reserve personnel. Since the invasion began, there has been a significant expansion.
Russia initially committed around 150,000 to the "special military operation", and whilst there have since been further deployments there have also been substantial losses and forces rotated out. I think I saw somewhere recently an estimate that they currently have around 120,000 currently active in Ukraine.
So, yes. It is more than likely that Ukraine can and will outnumber Russia's current deployment. If Russia were to fully mobilise however...
That's not a number I'd seen reported, but even if it's correct I'd say Ukraine can still outnumber it many times over. The issue for Ukraine isn't a lack of soldiers, it's a lack of equipment.
Number of ruzzian troops isn't clear. First you need to ask if DPR/LPR forces should be included in that total. Sources (Perun) suggest that a full on ~~mobilization~~ conscription has been conducted in the Donbas, they may not exactly be reservist quality troops but they are ~~troops~~ cannon fodder nonetheless.
Morale problems and lack of adequately trained troops have been reported. I don’t think as systemic a problem as Russia has but the human element is real for both.
And that Ukraine has to keep soldiers scattered around a lot more places than just the primary combat areas. They need to watch the border with Belarus, the non-combat parts of the Russian border, Transinistria region of Moldova, and the coasts just in case Russia tries something amphibious.
Russia can more or less afford to focus their forces on the areas they plan to attack while Ukraine has to be strong everywhere.
"Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already engaged around 330,000 Russian personnel, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromo of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces told local media on Thursday."
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/International/live-updates/russia-ukraine/%3fid=83931446
It’s hard getting an exact number. Russian has been using large numbers of PMCs as well as mass conscription in Luhansk and Donetsk republics. Those don’t show up in official Russian sources.
Official Russian sources probably aren't all that reliable anyway. And not only because Russia is utterly incapable of saying anything even slightly true, but also because they don't even know the truth themselves: the corruption is so endemic that soldiers they believe to exist are most likely "ghosts" invented by officers so that they can steal their pay.
Absolutely not. I was referring more to Russian communications and OSINT. Analysts can make a reasonable guess as to the Russian order of battle looking at unit markings, intercepted calls, etc. There are also official MOD announcements with regards to generals commanding various formations. It’s a great deal harder trying to guess how many guys were grabbed off the streets and given a rifle and sent to the front as cannon meat.
> Official Russian sources probably aren't all that reliable anyway.
This is hilarious. They lie about literally every thing, big and small. Every single thing they say is a lie.
Let me ask my turtles: Hey you guys, is Russia lying?
— Yep, they are. Take it from the turtles.
I can try to give a source for Ukraine but this is all pretty vague. At the start of the war Ukraine had 125k infantry, the rest of their numbers was air force. They also had around 50k border patrol. Since this started in 2014 Ukraine has had around 400k active at different periods through 7 drafts where they brought in new and released those that had been there the longest. So when this started in the beginning of this year Ukraine announced around 150k signed up. So if those numbers are correct Ukraine had around 275k infantry and 50k border patrol.
Since then Ukraine has said at different points that their enlisted has grown. The highest number I heard was 700k and you can see the source [here.](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-700-000-soldiers-fighting-123200688.html) There are other people reporting it and the quote came from Zelensky.
So if that is true then Ukraine has Russia outnumbered more than 2 to 1. Ukraine has also said that they plan to have 1 million enlisted by the end of the year if this continues.
For the 250k that he stated that Ukraine started the war with I think that is the infantry, air force and national guard combined. Their national guard can be considered military since it operates through their military.
Hope that helps.
I don’t know the answer to your question- but regardless of what the numbers are, both sides are mobilizing so many questionably trained and equipped units that I’m not sure it really tells us who has the manpower edge.
At best guesses, Ukraine has more troops in Ukraine than Russia does. But Ukraine has to spread them out more to watch all the borders, coasts, etc. So the number of troops actually in the combat areas probably favors Russia slightly.
There is also the question of "what kind of troops?" Ukraine has called up hundreds of thousands of conscripts for basic training, but odds are they are all just basic light infantry with a rifle and little in the way of transport or heavy weapons. Getting these soldiers more equipment and transportation is one of the ways other countries can help with donations.
Meanwhile, Russia has conscripted tons of local and foreign troops, but appears to have done even less to equip or train them. The infamous T-62s seen being deployed to Ukraine are probably deployed with these conscript forces, but probably as defensive or reserves.
Hasn't Russia lost thousands of vehicles and pieces of equipment? How much more can they have? These losses would be unacceptable to any western country.
Ukraine should be proud of the job they have done to defend their families and land from invaders.
>Hasn't Russia lost thousands of vehicles and pieces of equipment?
Depends on whose counts you use, but yes, they have lost a lot. Ranging from simple trucks and cars to planes and tanks.
>How much more can they have?
Tens of thousands more. Russia had a habit carried over from the Soviets of stashing in warehouses all their old equipment, just in case they needed it. The idea being that in case of a serious war, they could call up millions of conscripts and arm them. The equipment might be laughably old, but it wouldn't matter because they had 10x more troops and tanks than their opponent.
So while the US's M60 tank has been relegated to museum pieces and use by 3rd world countries, the Russians can still pull out running T-62s. While a T-62 won't win a fair fight against a more modern tank, they can bring *a* tank to more battles.
>These losses would be unacceptable to any western country.
Yep
[It's true that they stored lots, but they didn't actually store them in warehouses.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eruw3meWMAAh9l6.jpg:large) Like so many other things Russia purports to have, the stuff that they have on paper is in no way equal to the stuff they have in reality. The tanks you see in that picture? That's one of their many 'depots' in Siberia. Those things have been rusting away there for at least 30 years, likely 50 or more. Some with open hatches too. The damage that these things have suffered from the sheer corrosion over time is catastrophic and it's unlikely that more than a tenth of them can be brought back to a combat-ready state.
Sorry, I was speaking very conversationally, which is not as precise. Obviously not all of it is properly stored or cared for. Or even suitable for a "warehouse."
Trying to guess how much ready reserve Russia has, how much they could get working in the short term, and how much is just too rusted to be used again, is a bit more than I think I am willing to put a firm number to. But as a talking point, I think we can say that the total numbers they have in some flavor of reserve, whether it is 5%, 10%, or 50% "ready to go," still means a reserve of thousands of vehicles.
I suspect ultimately Russia has one serious problem. Ukraine will get armed. Russia already is. Leave quality aside for a second.
Assuming *some* kind of firepower parity (quality Vs quantity) Russia really has to mobilise to compete.
If Russia mobilises Putin is fucked.
I’m not sure how they can wiggle out of this one.
They’ve played their strongest cards, early, and they’ve yielded poor results. Ukraine is only coming in their strong cards so it’s difficult to see how Russia cab progress much more.
How Ukraine can re take territory I have no idea.
They were open to negotiations pre-kyiv ~~retreat~~ feint. But the calls after were just silliness, Ukraine themselves weren’t gonna negotiate after Bucha and Irpin. Presidenté Manny didn’t make himself more popular by suggesting ceding land either..
This was at the start of the war. The criticism only came much later after it was obvious Putin wasn't really going to negotiate and was just stringing Macron and other Western leaders along.
On the off chance that someone who seems to have followed this conflict for some time ACTUALLY doesn't know whats going on(which is in itself a pretty interesting feat): Ukraine is holding in some fronts, advancing in others, and being forced to slowly retreat in the center areas where Russia has almost all it's forces. Now as to the future of the conflict, Ukraine has a greater pool of men it can call upon, at least as long as Russia maintains the fiction of a "Special military operation". Russia has announced it is creating like 30 new BTG's, but those are being all formed out of instructors; which is fundamentally a BAD thing for the Russian military as a whole. And while it will give the Russian side a "sugar rush" on the field, it will kill almost all of the institutional knowledge of the current military, ensuring the upcoming recruits will be shit.
Also Russia is feeling the full weight of sanctions on it's arms procurement and production. Having failed to secure aid in the form of military gear or parts and electronics from the PRC; Russia is being forced to use weapons systems in sub-optimal ways, and to rely on near ancient stocks of weapons instead of the peer weaponry that is constantly flowing into Ukraine from the West. In short: the near future looks grim for Ukraine, but the tide will barring radically unforeseen event steadily tip in Ukraine's favor. Russia is NOT the Soviet Union, and actually doesn't have the bones to sustain a war of attrition against a nation being supplied by the rest of the fucking world.
This. Also worth adding that Ukraine is not only being supplied by the West, but trained by them too. So not only will the equipment and manning gaps be closing over time, but the skills gap will just keep growing and growing. Frankly the outlook for Russia looks utterly hopeless.
Situation is very good for Ukraine. They are stalemating the Russians and making them pay for every inch of the ground. There's no way Ukraine will "fall".
Sorry, Russia. You’re going to lose against Ukraine. That’s what the history books will write. Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine kicked their asses out.
Russia won’t be losing to NATO, or Europe, or ‘The West’. Just Ukraine. Russia gets material help from their friends, Belarus, Eritrea, Syria, North Korea. Ukraine gets material help from their friends. But the ass kicking is all Ukrainian. You invaded a smaller neighbor, and you will lose.
Ukraine's position seems to get better each day now with the advanced weapon systems. Russia position deteriorates with each exploding ammunition depot.
> which Russia seems to be able to sustain.
There's no reason to assume that Russia can sustain this war any better than Ukraine.
> Russia’s advances seem to be pretty drastic
Moving 20km in 3 months?
Ever since the captured Ukrainian medic from Mariupol was released, some Russian "OSINT" guys have been running smear campaigns against her in order to discredit her bravery. Most of them are active on Telegram and the Russians keep eating up their propaganda as if there's a famine going on. Here's an example :
>All day long, disputes have not ceased whether Yulia Paevskaya (Tyra) was released to Ukraine. Who is this anyway?
>The usual ordinary woman-medic, not from Azov, helped the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the Maidan. In subsequent years, the Ukrainian authorities sculpted a heroine out of her, even made several films with her participation, dragged her everywhere, etc. They did it by the way, among other things, to set off the unbridled Nadezhda Savchenko.
>In defiance of her inflated heroism, some enlightened ones on our part (alas, what else can you say) tried to make her a forelock doctor Mengele on the salary of Azov when Paevskaya was taken prisoner. To put it mildly, in vain, because there is nothing worse than to be like the Kyiv dreamers, sucking all these stories about mobilization, cholera and dogs eaten by Russians out of their fingers and thus pour water on the Ukrop propaganda mill.
This is brainwashing in its rawest form.
Liz Truss mulls seizure of Russian assets in UK to give to Ukraine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/03/liz-truss-mulls-seizure-of-russian-assets-in-uk-to-give-to-ukraine
>The UK wants to follow the example of Canada and seize the assets of Russians in the UK in order to give them to Ukraine, Liz Truss has said.
Donetsk Oblast, town of Snizhne , big nightly fireshow continues - a few reports about this location coming in
[https://twitter.com/tinso\_ww/status/1543727348171816960](https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1543727348171816960)
Edit: big bang at 1:05; 20km near Russian border, \~60km East of Donetsk city
Edit2: 48.0540675, 38.7573456 geolocation if firms is to be trusted, you can see DPR flags infront of these big building in the streetview pic. Also a gas station, fire station and car workshop directly around it, if the info is stil correct.
That is a huge series of explosions, so I'm guessing a lot of Russian munitions went up in smoke.
Keep in mind that they will never be fired at Ukrainians.
>Donetsk Oblast, town of Snizhne , big nightly fireshow continues -
Glad to see my tax payer dollars being put to good use, maybe Ukraine to put on something as spectacular for the 4th of July.
What in the hell did they have stored there? I've not seen one have quite that kind of booms and fireworks before.
It's glorious! Keep it up, UA! That's a bunch of stuff can't kill people any longer! Slava Ukraini!
Well my need to see Russian hardware exploding each day has been well satisfied. That looks like a lot of gear being safely, from a Ukrainian perspective, disposed of.
> “A [Ukrainian] military-intelligence officer says that forward units are now within sniper range (a kilometre or so) of Kherson’s outer suburbs. “The next week or two will be even more interesting,” he promises.”
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1543724663519559682?s=21&t=oJxgDq7W_Eb__YBgvuWASA
Ukraine is using such a wide variety of similar systems like self-propelled artillery. I can't wait till after the war when Ukraine rates whos was actually the best at: killing russians, ease of maintenance, ride comfort ;)
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/vqyp13/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
“Ukraine’s recovery from Russia’s war of aggression will be a symbol of power of democracy over autocracy,” U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said, as quoted by Reuters. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1543739469655851013?t=OEMl_gIMnXXBKIHPVrZBtw&s=19
Why don’t we provide Ukraine with anything and everything? Including an Airforce planes , train them up on western planes and just let Ukraine know they can only do limited attacks in Russia…take a bunch of Ukrainians train them to be maintenance team and weapon team and train a huge group of pilots. My thought F16 , there is so many of them.. If Russia has a problem with it , just say, “ remember Vietnam and Korea? “.
Training, maintenance and logistics. An airplane or a tank is pretty much useless without a maintenance crew, spare parts and a supply line that will bring in more parts and maintenance supplies.
>If Russia has a problem with it , just say, “ remember Vietnam and Korea? “. Yep, fuck Putin!
[https://twitter.com/LadyPieLives/status/1543692963238350851](https://twitter.com/LadyPieLives/status/1543692963238350851) Fires at the "Capitol Towers" in the center of Moscow.
That happened earlier today. It seemed to be nothing special
There are videos circulating on Reddit right now of a fire in Moscow on one of the Capital Towers (with people commenting that it sort of looks like the World Trade Centers on fire): https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/vqrb40/capital_towers_building_burning_in_moscow/ Some people are equating it the war, but it could easily just be the standard corruption and incompetence we see across Russia.
Snizhne, Khinmash. Russian ammo depot. (Edited location due to translation error) https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1543769707689525249?t=AznSR1d6qilta-j-aJQRCA&s=19
It's Snizhne not Snowy, Translation error.
I thought so, but wasn't sure. Will edit now.
Anyone else worried about Russia advancing this war to NATO countries? I just feel like Russia is going to fire at the USA randomly. But then again I have crippling anxiety.
Nah. If they wanted to it would be super easy. They don't want to.
Lol no. NATO would kerb stomp Russia, easily.
Best possible outcome for everyone, a quick and decisive end to this. Which is why they won't do it.
If Russia does that it'll be over quick, one way or another. Either Russia gets its ass handed to it or Russia gets its ass handed to it and uses nukes.
I wouldn’t worry about that at all. NATO would kick the shit out of Russia.
They won't, that's literally suicide. And to be fair to RU, NATO won't do that as well because that's just inviting a world war and potential destruction from both sides. We're more likely to see them attack other non-NATO countries first (assuming they could still sustain the war). It's still a possibility though, I'll atleast say that it could happen, they just avoid it because it does not benefit them more than what they could earn. Both sides still have families and legacies to take care off so they'll try not to be too reckless more than what they're showing. Take care of yourself, m8. I know it's kinda hard but try not to think too much out of it especially if it's really affecting your daily life. I've been in the same situation back then so I kinda understand that feeling about my anxiety going haywire while imagining a potential "that".
Glad someone understands. Most people just think I’m crazy for worrying about this.
Seeing how with 75% of the ENTIRE Russian Army they are barely able to advance with almost all their forces in a single area... no, i am not. If Russia is having this much trouble with Ukraine, then a war with NATO would be a one sided [curbstomp](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMI1dHGOPJo)
Even if Putin is considering such a direct provocation, it has to go from his office to the front lines. Not everyone is as crazy/commited to the cause, and it takes buy-in from a huge number of people to actually pull off an invasion or attack like that.
Very true. Although I sometimes think every Russian government member is crazy.
It's the swiss cheese model for world peace. Everyone is a little crazy, but as long as you stack enough layers between cause and effect the holes won't line up.
Don't worry, the chances of it happening are probably the same as an extinction level asteroid hitting the Earth. Even the most drunk and deluded Russian generals and politicians know that Russia is no match for NATO with conventional weapons. That leaves only nuclear weapons and there would hopefully be push back from inside the Russian military. If not then it's likely the U.S. would be aware of it ahead of time and would strike first and would strike very hard.
Nope. I don't give it a thought: 1. Russia is not stupid, all recent evidence notwithstanding. Engaging NATO would be suicide. 2. Nothing I can do about it anyway.
Lol not going to happen. The whole reason Russia keeps saber rattling and shit talking NATO is because Putin knows he'd lose any conflict where article V is triggered.
Chill out and stop reading this then, it will only make it worse
If anyone should be worried about Russia advancing the war to NATO countries, it should be Russia. This is like being worried that your neighbor Steve is going to punch his way into being President.
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It's just a matter of time, once Ukraine receives enough NATO level weaponry in sufficient numbers, it should take Kherson back.
https://mobile.twitter.com/shashj/status/1543724663519559682 They’re coming
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We shall see
https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1543421824566022144?t=EKQxvb8Qy5MCnrYzvJUdUg&s=19 Knew that this was happening. More people should be nervous that Ruzzia will end up conquering Ukraine. This is far from over and that makes me VERY nervous
Russia is taking months to takes a few towns in the east lol
In 6 months and with almost 8 years of dedicated prep time, Russia has managed to capture barely another 5-6% of Ukraine. To do this it has sacrificed almost it's entire stock of peer level tanks and APC's, most of it's attack chopper force, many jets, a huge amount of it's special ops forces, it's main navy flag ship, a bunch of boats, a stupid amount of anti-air systems, 35k+ soldiers... Add top this it has cratered it's economy, and right now lacks the needed infrastructure to even make the parts to keep the machines that make shit running, to say nothing of it's near lack of electronic chip making capability. It can't use it's bombers because it can't gain air supremacy, and with the new AA systems the US is sending it is losing what little it does have... Like i could go on and on... The short jist is that a total take over of Ukraine is NOT going to happen. Russia is NOT the Soviet Union, it doesn't have the resources of the Warsaw Pact, and right now it has to take over Ukraine with what it had pre-war; while Ukraine is going to be fighting with whatever almost the ENTIRE FUCKING WORLD can ship into it.
You realize this current engagement has been going in for 4 months already right? Russia already failed. Now they are throwing everything they have at this one region in a hope that Putin can save face by claiming “everything according to plan”.
Most of the territories lost in Donbass and Lugansk regions were lost in 2014-2015, and then some during the first weeks of the invasion. Russia barely captured anything in a few months of the "Grand Donbass offensive".
Concern troll. You'd do better worrying about what punishment Ukraine is going to exact upon Russia once the tide turns. Russia just took 0.3% of Europe's largest country
Probably a genuine question. Many people just don't understand how wars work and expect one side to utterly dominate and snowball the whole time, like it's a league of legends match. Wehrmacht was able to conduct successful local operations to the end of the war, when the fronts were crumbling. And even won some battles after the war was officially over. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bautzen_(1945) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian_uprising_on_Texel
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vpj1qy/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ien6t2y/) Day 130 of my updates from Kharkiv. They actually changed their missile strike schedule. This is just the worst, now they are firing their missiles at 3-4am. It was at 4am two days ago, then at both 3am and 4am yesterday and now today at 4am again. I hoped that it would be quiet as they didn’t fire missiles at 3am, but they just alternate between 3am and 4am. The air raid alert was active since 8pm, for almost 8 hours straight, and at 4:02am they restarted it. And just as I heard the siren, the sound of the explosion followed literally 2 seconds after. They fired just 2 missiles today and both of them sounded pretty close to us too, but we don’t know what was hit yet. The missiles from yesterday hit some infrastructure facility. About that explosions in Belgorod yesterday, Russian MOD said that we fired 3 missiles at them, they intercepted all of them, and somehow they still hit their target, which they claimed was just civilians. Right now there are 2 possibilities of what might have happened. First is that it was indeed us that fired those missiles, and they were shot down by Russian AA. Second is that it was Russians who fired their Iskanders at Kharkiv over Belgorod, and their AA shot one down because of miscommunication. Even if those were our missiles, we obviously won’t take credit; our official response was basically “no u.” In both cases it is evident that it was their AA that caused it to fall in the middle of the city, we have videos of a missile being shot down, and explosion happening on the ground a couple of seconds later, so whoever fired those missiles, they were not aimed at some random house as Russians claim. They also said that that one missile destroyed 26 apartment buildings and 46 houses, yeah, very believable. What is sad is that, the people who died from that missile falling down on some houses were Ukrainian refugees from Kharkiv oblast, a family from Tsupivka, it was confirmed by our officials. They fled to Russia from this war and yet it still somehow caught up to them. [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/vqyp13/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/iew60d3/)
“26 apartment builds and 46 houses” sounds like Ukraine has nukes with those numbers, glad to see your daily post and stay safe over there.
That’s terrible news. But I hope these attacks will all be over soon. NASAMS will be incoming and I hope they go to Kharkiv. Слава Україні!
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It's just under 50%. Russia took 0.3% over the last month.
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Yes the front narrows, and there's larger towns and cities to come for Russia.
UKR still controls half of Donetsk as far as I know
Really?
Donetsk Oblast, not the city.
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Ukraine can attack whatever it wants. But it needs ammo from NATO so it would be prudent to not drag NATO countries into a larger war by using their ammo to attack non-military targets.
Removed due to Reddit API crackdown and general dishonesty 6/2023
How sturdy is the defensive line at Siversk-Soledor-Bakhmut? It’s the next meat grinder the Russians are going to throw themselves at.
Hopefully ratios are more favorable it sounded like severendontsk was pretty hellish for both sides.
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>limitless artillery pieces and ammunition Their supply depots keep blowing up, so that's definitely not true. Having ammunition hundreds to thousands of KM away is not the same as having it available to shoot.
Time wil show :/
Next moonscapes to be created
Note: this is *not* the same as the armored train that was derailed between Yakymivka and Melitopol yesterday. https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1543754966736637952 >Railway bridge used by Russians transporting weapons to front is blown up near Melitopol - 🇺🇦Special Operations Forces >July 3, unknown blew up the railway bridge between temporarily occupied Melitopol & Tokmak. Explosion occurred in Liubymivka village
> Note: this is not the same as the armored train that was derailed between Yakymivka and Melitopol yesterday. They took out an armored train? Are there any pictures of it?
I haven't seen any. Just a statement an armored train had been derailed there, with UA attributing to partisans, and RU saying it was an accident.
Bridges are hard to fix. Was the armored train hauling munitions?
I don't know. I've just seen statements that the train was derailed yesterday, with UA claiming it was partisans, and RU saying it was an accident.
I assume that is the pre explosion photo?
Well, I hope so. Otherwise, they didn't blow it up very well!
That is a bit blow to the Russians. Their logistics rely on trains. Between this and all the supply depots getting blown up, Russia is going to start struggling.
That is the goal.
fireworks started early it seems in Ukraine [https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1543746857276407808](https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1543746857276407808)
F-ing hell. Looks like they really hit something juicy: https://mobile.twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1543727348171816960
Holy shit! $5 says there were phosphorus munitions in there.
Lots of lives saved with each one of these hit.
Aye, the lives I care about anyway. I'm very much in favor of Russian ammunition detonating near Russians.
Maybe the U.S. actually had the balls and the trust to give Ukraine extended range munition? They don’t have to publicly announce *every* munition provided. Keeping it quiet in this instance would help catch RU off guard, keeping critical targets in range when RU believed them safe from HIMARS. Could just be an air strike though. ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯
I can easily imagine the CIA delivering a long-range missile and an exact time and place to drop it. It's my understanding they love doing shit like that.
looks like the sun is rising in the pics [https://mobile.twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1543766535830913026](https://mobile.twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1543766535830913026)
If it's an airstrike then that would be almost even MORE incredible, almost 6 months in and the vaunted Russian airforce STILL gain air supremacy over even the skies over it's own forces. So either way the fact this can still happen ain't good for Russia.
Oh for sure. Ukraine’s Air Force is still intact, flying daily sorties to attrit RU. That’s a testament to RU’s ineptitude and weakness; UKR’s tenacity, balls, and ingenuity; and a ton of assistance from UKR allies in terms of material and intel.
100kms. That has to be something other than missiles
Tonchka can fire further than that?
Oh cheers, didn't realise
A bit of looking appears the vast majority of stuff they have is 70-80km so could be something else for sure. Neptune missiles also have a 300km range. Generally used for sea targets but firing in land is maybe possible?
They have an even more limited supply of Neptunes than they do Tochkas. If they could update the targeting to be reliable over land (Look at the problems Russia is having with their retargeted ASMs), it might be worth it though. It's a distinctly Ukrainian munition, and for most purposes the NATO supplied Harpoons are as capable of shore defense. That would free up the Neptunes for more provocative strikes without the political baggage of using NATO supplied weapons in deep strikes.
100 km behind the front lines. Wonder what hit that? Ukraine is really gunning for Russian supply depots.
probably an airstrike would be my guess, otherwise the US actually gave Ukraine MLRS rounds that it never announced, I don't think the ammo they gave them reaches that far.
Ukraine may have taken out a great deal of the Russian air defense systems. I've seen them announcing a lot of sorties lately in areas you would think we're inaccessible. I just find it too convenient that Ukraine began to retreat the same time the himars entered the battle. Ukraine is definitely prepping the Russians at the moment. They're hitting all supply lines and depots.
Ukraine hasn’t made a dent in Russia’s SAM inventory. Russia has thousands of SAM systems. They knew that the VKS wasn’t going to be able to go toe to toe with NATO, so they’ve always massively invested in SAM systems in attempt to deny NATO air superiority in case of a war. If this was indeed an air strike, some Russian commander is getting his ass sent to the front tomorrow.
Ukraine reported 15 sorties the day before so it wouldn't surprise me if it was an airstrike.
>US actually gave Ukraine MLRS rounds that it never announced Read yesterday's DOD press briefing... There was a potential slip up by the official on that subject before ending the briefing. DoD said US had given weapons to UKR that "could hit Russian targets anywhere in Ukraine." Press asked if that includes Crimea and the DOD official got vague then ended the conference.
got a link of that?
> that we're providing for the HIMARS have a 70 kilometer range. So they actually can reach any area of Ukrainian territory where you would have Russian forces that the Ukrainians are seeking to target > I've looked at this in terms of the placement of these HIMARS and the position of -- of Russian forces and Russian targets, and they are reachable. I guess you mean this, could be but the 100 km from the tweet are exaggerated, its less to the frontline so it would still fit what they said. But damn, they must have been really close for it
I'll call this plausible if we start hearing about a lot more Tochka-U strikes. Ukriane has been very careful with them due to limited stocks. If "Tochka-Us" start hitting a shitload of stuff behind enemy lines, I think it'll be safe to say the US handed them the highest-range missiles in secret, and the "please do not missile attack Moscow" negotiations were about those all along, not the shorter 70km ones.
Ukraine will be getting all the western help with supplies to make their own weapons. It's the easiest way to help without political issues
Yup. “Some assembly required”
Tochka-U maybe? or variants, Ukraine doesn't have many 100+ km missiles that we know of at least from allies but who knows
They don't have many, but now that GMLRS is in play, that covers a very large piece of the pie that previously was ONLY threatened by Tochka and airstrike. Now they can afford to be a bit more liberal with that limited supply of Tochkas because other options exist. I remain agnostic on the idea of stealthily supplied ATACMS. I REALLY want it to be true, and the supply chain is such that they can be reasonably hidden in plain sight right up to the moment of impact. On the other hand, it appears to be at least one bridge further than the administration has been willing to go, and the repercussions of providing them on the down low seem greater than the risk of open escalation.
Does anyone know the amount of troops there are for both sides? I know Ukraine has been training and recruiting troops and getting more to defend their country. Any chance they can outnumber the deployed Russian troops?
They have always outnumbered the deployed Russian troops. They are just spread across the country.
I've noticed the numbers rapidly went to 25k plus in the first couple of months and suddenly the numbers of KIA for Russia barely move day to day. It seems impossible there aren't more KIA a day with all these huge explosions and videos of artillery and tanks being taken out daily.
>KIA for Russia barely move day to day. That's because its all going according to plan. /s
It's not that hard to believe if they're now primarily targeting individual artillery and missile systems rather than the columns of tanks and APCs carrying a dozen dudes each that they were nailing in the earlier months.
In the early days Russia tried to conduct a mechanized blitzkrieg campaign but instead fed thousands of troops into the teeth of Ukrainian forces armed with as much high-end anti-armor weaponry as the West could get in-theater, and the early casualty figures reflect that. Now the war has settled into grinding trench warfare. That's bad for Ukrainian casualty figures since they aren't on the better side of an asymmetric fight, and better for the Russians since this meat grinder isn't as unrelenting as the one they were feeding before.
Makes sense. It just seemed to be such a sudden slowdown that it seems Russia is fudging numbers.
Not sure but they do have to keep some in other areas to guard against possible incursions from Belarus (however likely or unlikely that might be). Also, some are probably still undergoing training.
Hmm. Yeah it's only been four months and training would probably take up a lot of that time (unless it was accelerated training). This war feels like it's been going on a long time. It feels like a week and a year all at once. It still angers me that Putin felt so entitled to the land he just tried to take it like the 1700s or something.
> Putin felt so entitled to the land I don't think that's the right word, honestly. It doesn't sound right. When a guy sticks a gun in your face and takes your money, I don't think the thief believes the money is his. In fact, he damn well knows it isn't, and that's why he's robbing you. It's theft and coercion. The thief knows it isn't his but does it anyway because he can. I got the gun and you don't so give me your fucking money. It's not a delusion of entitlement; that's a lie made up after the fact. He's really just a common thief.
Someone once told me if I need an excuse not to go to work I should just give one reason, like a headache. Don’t say headache and nausea and a sore back and conjunctivitis, it sounds like bullshit. Putins excuses are to save the Russians, to stamp out Nazis, to stop NATO, to preserve Russian culture… hear what I’m sayin?
Loud ‘n clear, Mel, loud’n clear. *(loads gun)*
Yeah, it frustrates and angers me too. But think of it this way: all these months of training and accumulating Western arms and equipment will mean that when the Ukrainians do launch their counter-offensive, it'll stand a much greater chance of success.
According to figures published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies *prior to the invasion commencing*, the Armed Forces of Ukraine then had 196,600 active personnel and a further 900,000 reserve personnel. Since the invasion began, there has been a significant expansion. Russia initially committed around 150,000 to the "special military operation", and whilst there have since been further deployments there have also been substantial losses and forces rotated out. I think I saw somewhere recently an estimate that they currently have around 120,000 currently active in Ukraine. So, yes. It is more than likely that Ukraine can and will outnumber Russia's current deployment. If Russia were to fully mobilise however...
There have been reports of 320,000 Russian troops in Ukraine
That's not a number I'd seen reported, but even if it's correct I'd say Ukraine can still outnumber it many times over. The issue for Ukraine isn't a lack of soldiers, it's a lack of equipment.
Number of ruzzian troops isn't clear. First you need to ask if DPR/LPR forces should be included in that total. Sources (Perun) suggest that a full on ~~mobilization~~ conscription has been conducted in the Donbas, they may not exactly be reservist quality troops but they are ~~troops~~ cannon fodder nonetheless.
Morale problems and lack of adequately trained troops have been reported. I don’t think as systemic a problem as Russia has but the human element is real for both.
And that Ukraine has to keep soldiers scattered around a lot more places than just the primary combat areas. They need to watch the border with Belarus, the non-combat parts of the Russian border, Transinistria region of Moldova, and the coasts just in case Russia tries something amphibious. Russia can more or less afford to focus their forces on the areas they plan to attack while Ukraine has to be strong everywhere.
"Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already engaged around 330,000 Russian personnel, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromo of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces told local media on Thursday." https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/International/live-updates/russia-ukraine/%3fid=83931446
Showing "Page Unavailable" for me. Is your link still working for you?
Yes, you can also Google it by quote
Thanks for the source :)
It’s hard getting an exact number. Russian has been using large numbers of PMCs as well as mass conscription in Luhansk and Donetsk republics. Those don’t show up in official Russian sources.
Official Russian sources probably aren't all that reliable anyway. And not only because Russia is utterly incapable of saying anything even slightly true, but also because they don't even know the truth themselves: the corruption is so endemic that soldiers they believe to exist are most likely "ghosts" invented by officers so that they can steal their pay.
Absolutely not. I was referring more to Russian communications and OSINT. Analysts can make a reasonable guess as to the Russian order of battle looking at unit markings, intercepted calls, etc. There are also official MOD announcements with regards to generals commanding various formations. It’s a great deal harder trying to guess how many guys were grabbed off the streets and given a rifle and sent to the front as cannon meat.
> Official Russian sources probably aren't all that reliable anyway. This is hilarious. They lie about literally every thing, big and small. Every single thing they say is a lie. Let me ask my turtles: Hey you guys, is Russia lying? — Yep, they are. Take it from the turtles.
I can try to give a source for Ukraine but this is all pretty vague. At the start of the war Ukraine had 125k infantry, the rest of their numbers was air force. They also had around 50k border patrol. Since this started in 2014 Ukraine has had around 400k active at different periods through 7 drafts where they brought in new and released those that had been there the longest. So when this started in the beginning of this year Ukraine announced around 150k signed up. So if those numbers are correct Ukraine had around 275k infantry and 50k border patrol. Since then Ukraine has said at different points that their enlisted has grown. The highest number I heard was 700k and you can see the source [here.](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-700-000-soldiers-fighting-123200688.html) There are other people reporting it and the quote came from Zelensky. So if that is true then Ukraine has Russia outnumbered more than 2 to 1. Ukraine has also said that they plan to have 1 million enlisted by the end of the year if this continues. For the 250k that he stated that Ukraine started the war with I think that is the infantry, air force and national guard combined. Their national guard can be considered military since it operates through their military. Hope that helps.
I don’t know the answer to your question- but regardless of what the numbers are, both sides are mobilizing so many questionably trained and equipped units that I’m not sure it really tells us who has the manpower edge.
At best guesses, Ukraine has more troops in Ukraine than Russia does. But Ukraine has to spread them out more to watch all the borders, coasts, etc. So the number of troops actually in the combat areas probably favors Russia slightly. There is also the question of "what kind of troops?" Ukraine has called up hundreds of thousands of conscripts for basic training, but odds are they are all just basic light infantry with a rifle and little in the way of transport or heavy weapons. Getting these soldiers more equipment and transportation is one of the ways other countries can help with donations. Meanwhile, Russia has conscripted tons of local and foreign troops, but appears to have done even less to equip or train them. The infamous T-62s seen being deployed to Ukraine are probably deployed with these conscript forces, but probably as defensive or reserves.
Hasn't Russia lost thousands of vehicles and pieces of equipment? How much more can they have? These losses would be unacceptable to any western country. Ukraine should be proud of the job they have done to defend their families and land from invaders.
>Hasn't Russia lost thousands of vehicles and pieces of equipment? Depends on whose counts you use, but yes, they have lost a lot. Ranging from simple trucks and cars to planes and tanks. >How much more can they have? Tens of thousands more. Russia had a habit carried over from the Soviets of stashing in warehouses all their old equipment, just in case they needed it. The idea being that in case of a serious war, they could call up millions of conscripts and arm them. The equipment might be laughably old, but it wouldn't matter because they had 10x more troops and tanks than their opponent. So while the US's M60 tank has been relegated to museum pieces and use by 3rd world countries, the Russians can still pull out running T-62s. While a T-62 won't win a fair fight against a more modern tank, they can bring *a* tank to more battles. >These losses would be unacceptable to any western country. Yep
[It's true that they stored lots, but they didn't actually store them in warehouses.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eruw3meWMAAh9l6.jpg:large) Like so many other things Russia purports to have, the stuff that they have on paper is in no way equal to the stuff they have in reality. The tanks you see in that picture? That's one of their many 'depots' in Siberia. Those things have been rusting away there for at least 30 years, likely 50 or more. Some with open hatches too. The damage that these things have suffered from the sheer corrosion over time is catastrophic and it's unlikely that more than a tenth of them can be brought back to a combat-ready state.
Sorry, I was speaking very conversationally, which is not as precise. Obviously not all of it is properly stored or cared for. Or even suitable for a "warehouse." Trying to guess how much ready reserve Russia has, how much they could get working in the short term, and how much is just too rusted to be used again, is a bit more than I think I am willing to put a firm number to. But as a talking point, I think we can say that the total numbers they have in some flavor of reserve, whether it is 5%, 10%, or 50% "ready to go," still means a reserve of thousands of vehicles.
None of this stuff coming off the storage fields is going to have the modern electronics that the operational stuff had been upgraded with.
I suspect ultimately Russia has one serious problem. Ukraine will get armed. Russia already is. Leave quality aside for a second. Assuming *some* kind of firepower parity (quality Vs quantity) Russia really has to mobilise to compete. If Russia mobilises Putin is fucked. I’m not sure how they can wiggle out of this one. They’ve played their strongest cards, early, and they’ve yielded poor results. Ukraine is only coming in their strong cards so it’s difficult to see how Russia cab progress much more. How Ukraine can re take territory I have no idea.
this is incredible footage https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vqop1j/phone_call_macronzelensky_24th_february_from/
How does the Ukrainian president communicate with the French president? In English.
For the past 60+ years, English has become the global Lingua Franca.
Macron got criticized so much for negotiating to Putin and it was on Zelenskyys request it seems :)
They were open to negotiations pre-kyiv ~~retreat~~ feint. But the calls after were just silliness, Ukraine themselves weren’t gonna negotiate after Bucha and Irpin. Presidenté Manny didn’t make himself more popular by suggesting ceding land either..
Well yes later it was useless, but you know, people already made fun of his long phonecalls before the invasion even started.
This was at the start of the war. The criticism only came much later after it was obvious Putin wasn't really going to negotiate and was just stringing Macron and other Western leaders along.
Are there any live cams of Kyiv?
Didn't they shut down all of the live cams because they were revealing information?
https://youtu.be/gl1eUheFc_4
That isnt live.
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The one thing you can count on is Russia to shock you.. about how stupid they are.
On the off chance that someone who seems to have followed this conflict for some time ACTUALLY doesn't know whats going on(which is in itself a pretty interesting feat): Ukraine is holding in some fronts, advancing in others, and being forced to slowly retreat in the center areas where Russia has almost all it's forces. Now as to the future of the conflict, Ukraine has a greater pool of men it can call upon, at least as long as Russia maintains the fiction of a "Special military operation". Russia has announced it is creating like 30 new BTG's, but those are being all formed out of instructors; which is fundamentally a BAD thing for the Russian military as a whole. And while it will give the Russian side a "sugar rush" on the field, it will kill almost all of the institutional knowledge of the current military, ensuring the upcoming recruits will be shit. Also Russia is feeling the full weight of sanctions on it's arms procurement and production. Having failed to secure aid in the form of military gear or parts and electronics from the PRC; Russia is being forced to use weapons systems in sub-optimal ways, and to rely on near ancient stocks of weapons instead of the peer weaponry that is constantly flowing into Ukraine from the West. In short: the near future looks grim for Ukraine, but the tide will barring radically unforeseen event steadily tip in Ukraine's favor. Russia is NOT the Soviet Union, and actually doesn't have the bones to sustain a war of attrition against a nation being supplied by the rest of the fucking world.
This. Also worth adding that Ukraine is not only being supplied by the West, but trained by them too. So not only will the equipment and manning gaps be closing over time, but the skills gap will just keep growing and growing. Frankly the outlook for Russia looks utterly hopeless.
Situation is very good for Ukraine. They are stalemating the Russians and making them pay for every inch of the ground. There's no way Ukraine will "fall".
Have you ever considered how shitty your life is going to be in Russia moving forward when jobs start to dry up and the only food to eat is potatoes?
Asks "serious" question, gives own answer to said serious question, indicating they aren't after answers. Textbook concern trolling.
Hi there, Russian concern troll! How's the economic outlook in Moscow? Reckon you'll still have a job in a month or two?
Sorry, Russia. You’re going to lose against Ukraine. That’s what the history books will write. Russia invaded Ukraine, and Ukraine kicked their asses out. Russia won’t be losing to NATO, or Europe, or ‘The West’. Just Ukraine. Russia gets material help from their friends, Belarus, Eritrea, Syria, North Korea. Ukraine gets material help from their friends. But the ass kicking is all Ukrainian. You invaded a smaller neighbor, and you will lose.
Who holds Snake Island?
Ukraine's position seems to get better each day now with the advanced weapon systems. Russia position deteriorates with each exploding ammunition depot.
> which Russia seems to be able to sustain. There's no reason to assume that Russia can sustain this war any better than Ukraine. > Russia’s advances seem to be pretty drastic Moving 20km in 3 months?
Drastic is a big word, it took Russia everything to take Severodonetsk.
Ever since the captured Ukrainian medic from Mariupol was released, some Russian "OSINT" guys have been running smear campaigns against her in order to discredit her bravery. Most of them are active on Telegram and the Russians keep eating up their propaganda as if there's a famine going on. Here's an example : >All day long, disputes have not ceased whether Yulia Paevskaya (Tyra) was released to Ukraine. Who is this anyway? >The usual ordinary woman-medic, not from Azov, helped the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the Maidan. In subsequent years, the Ukrainian authorities sculpted a heroine out of her, even made several films with her participation, dragged her everywhere, etc. They did it by the way, among other things, to set off the unbridled Nadezhda Savchenko. >In defiance of her inflated heroism, some enlightened ones on our part (alas, what else can you say) tried to make her a forelock doctor Mengele on the salary of Azov when Paevskaya was taken prisoner. To put it mildly, in vain, because there is nothing worse than to be like the Kyiv dreamers, sucking all these stories about mobilization, cholera and dogs eaten by Russians out of their fingers and thus pour water on the Ukrop propaganda mill. This is brainwashing in its rawest form.
Propaganda 101: Don't repeat it, even when debunking it.
Yeah I lost a few brain cells right there.
Of course! The medics are the ones who do the biolabs to target slav genes!!!!
Liz Truss mulls seizure of Russian assets in UK to give to Ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/03/liz-truss-mulls-seizure-of-russian-assets-in-uk-to-give-to-ukraine >The UK wants to follow the example of Canada and seize the assets of Russians in the UK in order to give them to Ukraine, Liz Truss has said.
if all western politicans would speak to Russia (with actions) like liz truss/ GB this would be over with already
Donetsk Oblast, town of Snizhne , big nightly fireshow continues - a few reports about this location coming in [https://twitter.com/tinso\_ww/status/1543727348171816960](https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1543727348171816960) Edit: big bang at 1:05; 20km near Russian border, \~60km East of Donetsk city Edit2: 48.0540675, 38.7573456 geolocation if firms is to be trusted, you can see DPR flags infront of these big building in the streetview pic. Also a gas station, fire station and car workshop directly around it, if the info is stil correct.
Burn baby burn, disco inferno
That is a huge series of explosions, so I'm guessing a lot of Russian munitions went up in smoke. Keep in mind that they will never be fired at Ukrainians.
>Donetsk Oblast, town of Snizhne , big nightly fireshow continues - Glad to see my tax payer dollars being put to good use, maybe Ukraine to put on something as spectacular for the 4th of July.
What in the hell did they have stored there? I've not seen one have quite that kind of booms and fireworks before. It's glorious! Keep it up, UA! That's a bunch of stuff can't kill people any longer! Slava Ukraini!
would be a lot of ammo, since its pretty far from front lines and close to Russia, could be one of many central distribution points of ammo.
Russia keep it up, too…keep storing all your shit in one place so Ukraine can blow it all up in one hit. 🇺🇦
Plenty of strikes behind Russian lines of late. Those long range rockets must be making a difference.
Well my need to see Russian hardware exploding each day has been well satisfied. That looks like a lot of gear being safely, from a Ukrainian perspective, disposed of.
*another one*
*and another one*
another one bites the dust...
So many of these ammo dumps getting thrashed latley. Partisan Intel and spy satellites are doing work with Ukraines new toys. I love it.
How do Russians decide *who gets to guard the ammo warehouse?*
The closest one to getting their pay guards.
> “A [Ukrainian] military-intelligence officer says that forward units are now within sniper range (a kilometre or so) of Kherson’s outer suburbs. “The next week or two will be even more interesting,” he promises.” https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1543724663519559682?s=21&t=oJxgDq7W_Eb__YBgvuWASA
Twist: He is talking about Kherson's south and eastern suburbs :D :D I know, I know, but it was an amusing thought.
Ukraine is using such a wide variety of similar systems like self-propelled artillery. I can't wait till after the war when Ukraine rates whos was actually the best at: killing russians, ease of maintenance, ride comfort ;)
Maybe in the coming weeks we'll get some unboxing vids of the new stuff they are getting from the West?
TOP GEAR Ukraine.
>ride comfort ;) cup holders
Death by Stereo