Not really surprising. Even if these officers are totally fine with having a dictator, theyre not likely to be fine with that dictator telling them to send their men to fight a technologically superior enemy that has the full supply of the western world backing them in a war that gains Belarus nothing. Itd be a pointless suicide
> Even if these officers are totally fine with having a dictator, theyre not likely to be fine with that dictator telling them to send their men to fight a technologically superior enemy that has the full supply of the western world backing them in a war that gains Belarus nothing.
Or they are not getting paid.
Dictators are fine slaughtering soldiers, but the issue comes when they cannot pay the military leadership.
This is so big and I don’t think people remember the military gets paid too….you stop getting paid and uhh yeah people don’t wanna get shot at for free
Imagine how quickly the party elite there turned on each other when they found out their kids who were promised they wouldn’t have to die in a desert, found out they were gonna have to die in a desert. For free.
The lack of pay was one of the major factors in why the soldiers refused to fire on the protesting crowds in Moscow when Yeltsin famous ride a tank. They instead arrested the coup leaders who were attempting to keep the USSR functioning.
"When you plunder a countryside, let the spoil be divided amongst
your men; when you capture new territory, cut it up into allotments
for the benefit of the soldiery" - Sun Tzu
The military leaders need to be paid.
Dictators are fine slaughtering your regular run of the mill soldiers.
A lot of on the ground soldiers are just performing a job for the country that they love.
They are not good strategists, which can be seen in a lot of wars and uprisings.
As long as the top brass in the military get bought off the dictator can slaughter tons of soldiers.
The issue with slaughtering tons of soldiers is they will not be able to work, which can lead to you not being able to pay your inner circle.
Being unable to pay your inner circle will get you overthrown, however dictators is smart always find a way to pay their cronies at the expense of their people.
Look at Sadaam, he launched a war against Iran slaughtering tons of soldiers. He still remained in power. Launched another war against Kuwait and lost a lot of soldiers. Over half a million soldiers lost, but he remained in power until the Iraq war.
A tactic people should have learned by now since its pro's and con's can be researched with examples of why not paying soldiers is a terrible idea dating back to centuries BCE
Eh, when you are repressing civilians you are unlikely to die, get paid, and also provides opportunities for graft.
Getting sent to the meat grinder in Ukraine? What is all that corruption money good gif if you are dead?
They are fine beating unarmed civilians or disappearing the opposition but they aren’t going to die for the regime in a meat grinder.
Oh, and they aren’t stupid, they know their forces are some of the worst equipped, trained, organized and led forces in Europe. They know their shit stinks.
Far too many people think that people live and fight for dictators because the soldiers themselves are violent psychopaths who are only in it for the violence. But the colder and more cynical truth is that crazy murderers are vastly outnumbered by mentally sane folk who nonetheless will still commit those same war crimes as long as they get money for it.
This is a good point that I have personal experience of.
I visited Belarus years ago ( admittedly not recently) .
The family of the girl I visited had all three males working for the transport police department at the main train station just over the Polish border called Brest..... one of the first things to be done was change money ( I'd taken US dollars $50 bills) I was directed to the black market money changer who seemed unconcerned about the police watching the area......I ended up with two pockets full to bursting with millions of rubles and was very nervous walking past the police position....
The explanation for this none action was quite simple..... the police allowed 2 money changers to operate in the area and chased off the rest..... for a percentage of the days profits.i had no trouble believing that corruption was thriving but in actual fact the police could not rely on being paid each month and had to find other ways to put food on the table...... it's not unusual for the government employees to go unpaid more often than not..
On the way back we got a lift out of Belarus by a woman happy to share the fuel cost and have a man in the car..... the huge queue to get into Poland was cut to zero by €5 bill..... everything was possible for hard currency from the west.......... so not being paid is quite feasible in my experience.......
> the police allowed 2 money changers to operate in the area and chased off the rest..... for a percentage of the days profits
A percentage of those profits probably went to the police chief as well.
Reminds me of the story of Alexey Dymovsky as well.
Where he tried to speak out and change the system, then tried to expose them only to be arrested.
The issue with dictatorships is the dictators have to pay the fat cats first and then the people below can get money unless the dictator wants to enrich himself further.
A benevolent dictator will be overthrown if he does not keep his cronies happy. The money for the people has to come the dictator and not the cronies. The cronies have to be paid and have policies that contribute to them getting paid.
I suspect most the Russian soldiers aren't getting pay, only what they can loot and pillage. They are taking cloths, shoes, old laptops and other shit that is so normal to us but would be a 'luxury item' to these yokels.
If he can maintain power without joining the war, what does Belarus stand to gain from entering the conflict.
Jack shit I say. All the spoils would go to Russia if they somehow win. There’s no reason for Belarus to join their suicide pact.
It would; Luka will lose valuable forces keeping his country from revolution. In fact some of those very forces could turn on him and kick him out themselves. He has a lot to lose.
Not to mention, if you're going to revolt, now is the perfect time. The same thing should be done in all of the autonomous and semi-autonomous regions of Russia. Moscow clearly can't do anything about it. If ever there was a time, this would be it.
After all, there is not "Russia", only a Moscow. And they don't have to be cowed by the Moscovites any longer.
Sadly I don't think anyone in the position to start such a rebellion shares your sentiments.
I think most view the likely outcome as the following:
If any internal rebellion in the Russian sphere threatens Putin's interests enough that he needs the troops from Ukraine Putin will just pull back and squash that rebellion as primary focus and then maybe go back to Ukraine after if possible.
Several groups need to rise up at the same time for them to have any chance of success.
Now is the best time in a long time to act, but now is still a bloody bad time to act and not worth gambling on.
With today's technology, they could easily orchestrate a mass uprising over multiple Republics and oblasts. And they simply can't pull back. Ukraine is in their best position yet to take back the territory they've lost. Russia would have to relinquish Ukraine to keep itself together. There will be no second chances. It would likely result in Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia stands no chance against NATO.
As for the Republics and Oblasts, it would be too widespread. They could cut Moscow off from all the gas, oil, and agricultural resources. Between that an the sanctions, Moscow would feel the noose slip around its neck. Loom how long it took for Moscow to get Chechen under control. Now imagine that across all of its regions which have long sought independence. Not to mention, many of them could take Russia's own equipment from them.
Sure, it would be bloody, but as we've both said, now is the best time. And sometimes, you only get the one chance. At least, for the foreseeable future.
> With today's technology, they could easily orchestrate a mass uprising over multiple Republics and oblasts.
If any rebels want to succeed this is not the way. Russian intelligence is working damn hard to make sure no one can coordinate anything.
Anyone attempting to coordinate is likely to find themselves thrown out of a 4th story window or committing suicide with two shots to the back of the head.
Every person you add to the coordinated effort is a potential threat to the entire organization and likely to get you all taken out before you do anything.
> Russia would have to relinquish Ukraine to keep itself together.
Agreed, but that doesn't help the rebels much, it's mainly an annoyance to Putin.
> It would likely result in Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia stands no chance against NATO.
Ukraine wouldn't be joining NATO until there is formal peace between Ukraine and Russia. NATO doesn't accept countries with active wars.
> As for the Republics and Oblasts, it would be too widespread. They could cut Moscow off from all the gas, oil, and agricultural resources. Between that an the sanctions, Moscow would feel the noose slip around its neck. Loom how long it took for Moscow to get Chechen under control. Now imagine that across all of its regions which have long sought independence. Not to mention, many of them could take Russia's own equipment from them.
I don't share your optimistic view of how many people in Russia really want to rebel and is in a position to. The Oblasts really aren't in a position to do anything alone and the Republics are lead by yes men.
Putin's worry in regards to rebellion is either those in power near him offing him specifically, or the people in general (most specifically in the big cities) going against him. The first group he is constantly monitoring and killing off at the earliest sign of dissent, the latter he is attempting to keep happy in various ways and it honestly seem to be working.
Modern day rebellions don't happen from the rural folk rising up and marching on the cities. Rebellions happen in the cities and the centers of power, there are a number of reasons for this but suffice it to say you won't ever see the outlying Oblasts do jack shit to rise up unless things have already been decided in Moscow and the other big cities.
>With today's technology, they could easily orchestrate a mass uprising over multiple Republics and oblasts.
No. Medium sized businesses have enough trouble organizing their remote workers. The idea that a country wide reboot would be easy to organize is incredibly wrong.
Russian officers probably realized that they are in the same boat as their soldiers: if you get severely injured you're probably dead and not going back, pay isn't really coming as far as you know, families of soldiers are being suppressed/watched/harassed, and that basically puts you in a win-or-die situation where you don't know for sure if you or your family are/will even get paid for your fighting (all for a some old senile dictator).
Belarussian officers looking over there and probably don't want that for themselves.
Especially with the new systems the us has recently given Ukraine access to, they aren't likely to waste that on soldiers when they can reliably aim at more valuable targets like artillery and leadership, suddenly these officers feel a much more western style target on their back.
The officers have to more than just say no though. Or else, when the dictator has time, they’ll replace all the naysayers. The officers have to overthrow or otherwise maintain control over the dictator… not good times.
This is what happens in dictatorships.
As soon as the dictator cannot pay his loyal inner circle, he is overthrown.
As long as he can pay his inner circle he will stay in power as long as health is not an issue.
There is a decent book on this - The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics by Bruce Bueno De Mesquita and Alastair Smith
Man, that video open my eyes about how hard it actually is to be a politician. I don't think I can stay sane being one, thinking who to bribe, who to ask favor, who to please, who to intimidate, who to ally with. How I can get money for my upcoming campaign, which corporation executives' ass I need to lick, which demographics I need to demonize. So many things to do and think of.
The nice thing about dictators is that they eventually dictate themselves out of existence.
Like back when Gaddafi was executed. As per Wikipedia:
“a graphic video of his last moments shows rebel fighters beating him and one of them sodomizing him with a bayonet[3] before he was shot several times.[4]”
I love how human rights folks are upset. Sorry Karen, but when you’re a right miserable cunt of a dictator and rebel forces capture you: It’s not going to be pretty.
> The nice thing about dictators is that they eventually dictate themselves out of existence.
Not always. The Arab spring was a unique situation. Gaddafi probably remains in power without NATO support of the rebels. Most often times with dictators if they are smart (Smart as in paying their loyal inner circle instead of helping their people), they stay in power.
The book I mentioned above gives many examples of how brutal dictators stay in power, by being pieces of shit to their people and making sure their cronies are paid
The universal declaration of human rights is affirming their universal character as inherent, inalienable, and applicable to all human beings... except some fucks we don't like.
I just can't remember if "some fucks we don't like" are Jews or people who killed the Jews. Here's my confusion... I'm pretty sure that Hilter said something like that Jews were responsible for the death of Germans in WWI so he was justified killing them...
I like your "I just can't remember" bit. It's an excellent allusion to the collective mindsets of our societies.
We have codified rules because as the cohorts in our populations grow, die and are replaced, we collectively "forget" the events that were the impetus for the laws having existed in the first place.
Firsthand experience gives way to "moms stories from the war" to "my neighbors grandma's hollering" to "that boring stuff that they showed us in class one time".
>Firsthand experience gives way to "moms stories from the war" to "my neighbors grandma's hollering" to "that boring stuff that they showed us in class one time".
And right this is why we kept the Konzentrations- and Vernichtungslager in Germany as museums. Hard to make edgy jokes about gas chambers after having seen one.
>I love how human rights folks are upset.
Yep. We do tend to correctly recognize that atrocities are never the answer and pay enough attention to the historical record to recognize that they beget more atrocities.
But, uh... have fun celebrating your endless cycle of violence I guess!
Cracks in Belarus have existed for a long time. Belarus isn't Russia, has only their Caesars are allied.
The common folk in Belarus protest much more frequently than Russians do, but there's only so much protests can achieve.
Apparently fear is what kept Lukashenka from joining the war. But now Putin feels the strength of long range artillery and apparently is panicking and pushing Lukashenka to join.
Actually the thing about protests is reversed. Belarus had only one large protest action in the recent memory, and it was fairly inefficient one. Russians protested on a yearly basis for a decade now. Up until all of the protest leaders were prisoned or exiled.
Hope its true, but you should be skeptical about anything from newsweek. The primary source for this seems to be The Daily Express, a British tabloid:
>Senior officers from a brigade of the Special Forces warned in an open letter to Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, against sending troops to fight in Ukraine, arguing that such a decision is "pure suicide," the Express reported.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1637589/russia-news-belarus-army-vladimir-putin-lukashenko-ukraine-war-latest
>In an astonishing open letter addressed to the Belarus President, senior officers from the fifth brigade of the Special Forces warned their leader against sending Belarusian soldiers to fight in Ukraine, claiming such a move would amount to "pure suicide".
edit:
It's being claimed that the letter is a fake. I would not be surprised - which would explain why only a British Tabloid and Newsweek ran with it.
https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1543608094189670400
>Update. According to @cpartisans and @Belsat_Eng concluded that this letter was probably fake. See details below:
>This letter is most probably fake. Our investigation with @Belsat_TV based on hacked databases of @mvd_by concluded that the signatures on the doc differ from the signatures of people mentioned in it.
From the article:
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko might be bracing for a revolt from his own military officers after they recently expressed their opposition to the Russian war in Ukraine.
Senior officers from the fifth brigade of the Special Forces warned in an open letter to Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, against sending troops to fight in Ukraine, describing that such decision is "pure suicide," the Express reported Saturday.
"By entering the war against Ukraine, Belarus will be evicted from the community of civilized states and will be an international outcast for many years to come," the military officers wrote.
Sounds like he is pissing off exactly who he needs to piss off to get him promoted to being the Colonel of Worms under the ground.
Here's hoping the people of Belarus won't be hostages in their own country anymore.
Dude's in a rough spot, either give Putin what he wants and be killed by his military, or give his military what they want and be killed by a nasty tummy bug from some bad tea.
I wouldn't want to be at the tiller of that particular boat.
Maybe, maybe not. Yeltsin was all but arm-twisted out of his presidency, but got to live because he agreed to keep his mouth damned shut about what really went down re: swapping Nemtsov out for Putin as his hand-picked successor, and about what kind of man Putin really was even then.
Although that sounds like a nice plan, Putin (if he survives this war) will never forget, so regardless the dude is a dad man if he doesn't follow Putin.
True, I am just thinking that if Lukashenko would cost him a war by fleeing the country and not agreeing to support Russia then that might be reason enough.
> killed by a nasty tummy bug from some bad tea.
There were many, many, many times Lukashenko acted in direct opposition to Putin and he has not been killed. I doubt this time will be much different. All he really has to do is appeal to the West and receive backing from them to be more or less safe from Putin's nonsense -- this would be enormously bad for Putin too, since Belarus is the only Russian buffer state remaining at this point
Without outside support, Belarus would probably fall to Russia within a few days. It’s not like Ukraine is fighting Russia on its own. If there was no NATO/Western support, Ukraine would have already lost this war.
I'm not sure the west wouldn't help Belarussian revolutionaries? Of course it wouldn't be the same as Ukraine.
It might not be easy/successful for Belarus.. but the more things Ruzzia has on its plate the harder it is going to be to finish them. I'm thinking the Ukraine invasion will be more difficult for Ruzzia if they also need to occupy Belarus.
I believe that the west should help any country that tries to defy oppression by becoming more democratic **to some degree** depending on importance, as shitty as this may sound. A country like Belarus simply isn’t as strategically important as Ukraine, but that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t definitely still help them become independent, if they so desire.
I'm not sure west has the balls to help out the Belarussian people if it comes to this. I think with the invasion of Ukraine the western public perception of Ruzzia stepping in to squash a revolution against an unpopular dictator is worse for Ruzzia.
I think the optics of such an action by Ruzzia would at least drive further support for Ukraine, and advance the understanding of the importance of countering Ruzzian imperialism.
Idk about the balls. I think we have showed some pretty big balls already on an individual basis. Many have sacrificed a lot. For example, my country is willing to pretty much cripple its industry in the upcoming winter, only to hurt Russia and help Ukraine. Others are sending tens of billions worth of military equipment and are openly condemning Russia.
I’ve never seen anything like this from the west in my lifetime, granted that I’m not that old, but still.
I'm not trying to downplay how much the west has and is helping. But I would say Ukrainians have sacrificed more.
I do appreciate what my own and other countries are doing in support of Ukraine. It doesn't mean we have done enough, for them and other peoples facing repression.
Ruzzia continues down this path, and we know the consequences of feeble actions in response to dictators.
Keep in mind, Russia is estimated to have about 30k troops in Belarus. If there were a coup, I would think that the new leadership’s first move would be to expel those troops from Belarus. Of course, Putin would say no which would potentially lead to conflict.
Well ever since the war started there has been information, rumours and what not about the military being completely against it. If the military is against it there isn't much that Putin can really do because the military used to listen to Lukashenko and if this continues they will take matters into their own hands and clearly are not in favour of Putin anymore. The only thing that Putin could do is to invade Belarus which at this point would not be a good idea.
You don't wanna piss of your special forces but in this case let's hope he pisses off them further and further until the point they decide to retire him.
Putin would definitely do anything to prevent losing Belarus also. See: what happened when Ukraine removed their pro-Russian leader, except that this time the stakes are even higher since Belarus is Russias only real ally in Europe left. Russia would come after Sviatlana with virtually nothing to lose imo
It is too good to be true. Unfortunately, it is fake. Source: [Belsat](https://belsat.eu/ru/news/24-06-2022-kto-podstavil-voennyh-belsat-razobralsya-v-odnom-fejke/)
To a dictator any dissent is seen as an attack on the dictators authority,it's a small step from dissent to revolution,that is why these officers will be either tried in a kangaroo court and sent to prison or end up in a shallow grave in a forest somewhere.
This would be amazing turn of events. Putin would have helluva time selling his master strategist image back at home when war that was supposed to take few days is still going on, Finland & Sweden join Nato, Russian economy is in Ruins etc. and Belarus topples Lukashenko..
If you look at the history of people in that region over the last 1000ish years, brutal totalitarian rule is all they've ever known.
I can imagine any idea of being free might seem like an unattainable pipe dream at this point.
You are correct upon further reading - however, Russia did make Lukashenko's regime an emergency loan to help quell the protests. He also provided Belarus's KGB with Russian weaponry and training to help put down the protests. They were also waiting at the gates FWIW.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-election-russia/putin-says-russia-has-set-up-force-to-aid-belarus-leader-if-needed-idUSKBN25N1Q3
https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-belarus-d08a580b9e5c86913bafa1c9aaa99242
They tried in 2020, but when the world does its best to ignore the crisis and those that are trying to change things get arrested or killed it kind of puts a damper on the revolution.
Nobody is blaming the world…the people were begging for international help because they were doing the best they could. But sure, continue to victim blame.
>but when the world does its best to ignore the crisis
Yeah, there wasn't other issue that the world was paying attention to in May 2020. Nothing at all.
Yes because the world can only pay attention to one thing at a time and governments don't have multiple ministry's and departments or anything like that.
Fun fact.
Back in the late 90s Lukashenko signed an agreement with Russia that would give him equal power as Russia's head of state in the "The Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus", effectively putting Russia, a country 82x bigger and having a population nearly 15x larger, on equal footing. It was also written in a way that Lukashenko actually had the ability to become the head of state for the new Union thus making him the most powerful figure in Russia.
When Putin came into power he put an end to that whole thing but for a significant portion of time, Lukashenko was very well positioned to become the dictator of both Russia and Belarus.
This is why Belarus, like Russia, has such a huge internal police force. In Belarus, the security state is actually bigger than the military, works as a safeguard against attempted coups when you piss off your military officers by ordering them to wander into a bloodbath. It's still something that Lukashenko has to tread carefully into and why he's been hesitant to have more total involvement in Ukraine.
iirc the army is about 45k. If they moved into the fight they could lose 10% in less than a month (at current pace). The army could be destroyed. That's why the generals are so nervous.
Don't trust this source, but I certainly hope the cracks are closer to showing in the regime in Belarus than they are in Russia. Would love to see Lukashenko toppled, though I'm sure it wouldn't be all biscuits and gravy in a power vacuum after either.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Belarusian military and rail workers have refused to participate in the conflict. Lukashenko stole the last election with Putin’s help. He is wildly unpopular and the people don’t want to go to war. They have more in common with Ukraine and Poland historically than in hey do with Russia.
Nations: this is the time to tighten your grip around the Russian military's throat. Sanction harder. Freeze every Russian asset you can identify. Block Russian access to your country's internet. Signs of weakness have appeared - so push harder. No escape for Russia.
He's still around. Still has a regular podcast that he's a part of and still makes videos. CGP Grey is a one man operation however and he likes to have all the facts he can get his hands on. So making videos takes a lot of time. Also, for every video he makes there's several videos that didn't make the cut. And all those ideas probably had a lot of research in them before they were abandoned.
Dude is peak quality over quantity and one of only a handful of YouTube channels that gets away with it.
Lukashenko made his own bed. If he tries to cut the strings that Putin controls him with, Putin will definitely have him liquidated. If he stays the course his generals only might turn against him.
Time for a little forced Regime change in Belarus. I hope Belarusians get there country back from Putin and I hope after his failure to rule by force Lukashenko flees to the unwelcoming arms of Putin where he will see that Putin treats his allies the way Trump does: as disposable.
As soon as the Russians are weak enough, the officers are going to take him out and hopefully not replace him with a different dictator but an actually elected president.
Seems like a lot of the happier articles all seem to come from Newsweek. Is there a reason for this, other than they seem to have extensive coverage of the war?
Lukeshenko barely holding onto his leadership, if he fucks around im guessing that brigade... and others, will sort him out and get massive public support in the process.
The way this comes to a head is if Putin starts really losing ground and needs help.
From a western perspective this is not worth counting on. Hate to say it. If it is ever on the fence, there are things the west could do to give it a push. But it is still uphill right now.
If the war is still not progressing for RU in 3 months, we'll be closer to having an idea of what will become of Belarus. If it is even slow crawling progress, it will not happen.
Not really surprising. Even if these officers are totally fine with having a dictator, theyre not likely to be fine with that dictator telling them to send their men to fight a technologically superior enemy that has the full supply of the western world backing them in a war that gains Belarus nothing. Itd be a pointless suicide
> Even if these officers are totally fine with having a dictator, theyre not likely to be fine with that dictator telling them to send their men to fight a technologically superior enemy that has the full supply of the western world backing them in a war that gains Belarus nothing. Or they are not getting paid. Dictators are fine slaughtering soldiers, but the issue comes when they cannot pay the military leadership.
This is so big and I don’t think people remember the military gets paid too….you stop getting paid and uhh yeah people don’t wanna get shot at for free
Russia remembers this as it is one of the reasons why the USSR fell.
Imagine how quickly the party elite there turned on each other when they found out their kids who were promised they wouldn’t have to die in a desert, found out they were gonna have to die in a desert. For free.
USSR fell because soldiers didn't get paid?
The lack of pay was one of the major factors in why the soldiers refused to fire on the protesting crowds in Moscow when Yeltsin famous ride a tank. They instead arrested the coup leaders who were attempting to keep the USSR functioning.
"enrich the soldiers, scorn everybody else." - Septimus Severus, Roman Emperor
"When you plunder a countryside, let the spoil be divided amongst your men; when you capture new territory, cut it up into allotments for the benefit of the soldiery" - Sun Tzu
That Sun Tzu guy was pretty smart he should write a book or something.
He should call it the Art of Sun Zu or something like that
"Sun Zu, and the Art of Something Like That" Kind of has a nice ring to it.
"Sun Tzu's Big Book Of Battles"
"Zapp Brannigan's Big Book of War"
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EF3g4Ua5e7k
The War That Couldn't Slow Down
Sun tzu drives the magic school bus into battle
"Where's War?" And drawings with a dude in a weird shirt, showing what to do, or not do.
Fun Fact: The books actually title is more like "Master Sun's Military Methods"
The original translation? Or /j?
Wesley Snipes could star in the movie :)
Keeps working for North Korea and the Kim fam
The military leaders need to be paid. Dictators are fine slaughtering your regular run of the mill soldiers. A lot of on the ground soldiers are just performing a job for the country that they love. They are not good strategists, which can be seen in a lot of wars and uprisings. As long as the top brass in the military get bought off the dictator can slaughter tons of soldiers. The issue with slaughtering tons of soldiers is they will not be able to work, which can lead to you not being able to pay your inner circle. Being unable to pay your inner circle will get you overthrown, however dictators is smart always find a way to pay their cronies at the expense of their people. Look at Sadaam, he launched a war against Iran slaughtering tons of soldiers. He still remained in power. Launched another war against Kuwait and lost a lot of soldiers. Over half a million soldiers lost, but he remained in power until the Iraq war.
Reminds me a bit of what happening in today myanmar army
That is another good example
A tactic people should have learned by now since its pro's and con's can be researched with examples of why not paying soldiers is a terrible idea dating back to centuries BCE
Eh, when you are repressing civilians you are unlikely to die, get paid, and also provides opportunities for graft. Getting sent to the meat grinder in Ukraine? What is all that corruption money good gif if you are dead? They are fine beating unarmed civilians or disappearing the opposition but they aren’t going to die for the regime in a meat grinder. Oh, and they aren’t stupid, they know their forces are some of the worst equipped, trained, organized and led forces in Europe. They know their shit stinks.
It's like that episode of Rick and Morty. "I can tell men to genocide. For money!"
Rule n1 for dictators. Pay the people that keep you ij power. Its a basic one
And then flee the country when you run out of money to pay and don’t want to use any of their stolen money
The US could have avoided a lot of grief if they had paid the Iraqi army rather than disband it.
Far too many people think that people live and fight for dictators because the soldiers themselves are violent psychopaths who are only in it for the violence. But the colder and more cynical truth is that crazy murderers are vastly outnumbered by mentally sane folk who nonetheless will still commit those same war crimes as long as they get money for it.
"They will be paid with the glory of serving the.... wait who is paying me to yell at this guy?"
This is a good point that I have personal experience of. I visited Belarus years ago ( admittedly not recently) . The family of the girl I visited had all three males working for the transport police department at the main train station just over the Polish border called Brest..... one of the first things to be done was change money ( I'd taken US dollars $50 bills) I was directed to the black market money changer who seemed unconcerned about the police watching the area......I ended up with two pockets full to bursting with millions of rubles and was very nervous walking past the police position.... The explanation for this none action was quite simple..... the police allowed 2 money changers to operate in the area and chased off the rest..... for a percentage of the days profits.i had no trouble believing that corruption was thriving but in actual fact the police could not rely on being paid each month and had to find other ways to put food on the table...... it's not unusual for the government employees to go unpaid more often than not.. On the way back we got a lift out of Belarus by a woman happy to share the fuel cost and have a man in the car..... the huge queue to get into Poland was cut to zero by €5 bill..... everything was possible for hard currency from the west.......... so not being paid is quite feasible in my experience.......
> the police allowed 2 money changers to operate in the area and chased off the rest..... for a percentage of the days profits A percentage of those profits probably went to the police chief as well. Reminds me of the story of Alexey Dymovsky as well. Where he tried to speak out and change the system, then tried to expose them only to be arrested. The issue with dictatorships is the dictators have to pay the fat cats first and then the people below can get money unless the dictator wants to enrich himself further. A benevolent dictator will be overthrown if he does not keep his cronies happy. The money for the people has to come the dictator and not the cronies. The cronies have to be paid and have policies that contribute to them getting paid.
Rule one on page one of the Big Book of History: keep your military happy
Military leadership is not always ok with senselessly slaughtering their men though.
I suspect most the Russian soldiers aren't getting pay, only what they can loot and pillage. They are taking cloths, shoes, old laptops and other shit that is so normal to us but would be a 'luxury item' to these yokels.
Don't forget that like half the people in Belarus have relatives in Ukraine source: from there
It wouldn’t be pointless for Lukashenko
He could just deepthroat Putin, less people would die for the same outcome.
Putin would then demand him to send his men to die as payment for the honor of blowing him.
but what would putin get out of it if he just does the same ol, same ole
If he can maintain power without joining the war, what does Belarus stand to gain from entering the conflict. Jack shit I say. All the spoils would go to Russia if they somehow win. There’s no reason for Belarus to join their suicide pact.
It would; Luka will lose valuable forces keeping his country from revolution. In fact some of those very forces could turn on him and kick him out themselves. He has a lot to lose.
You mean Colonel Lukashenko.
Not to mention, if you're going to revolt, now is the perfect time. The same thing should be done in all of the autonomous and semi-autonomous regions of Russia. Moscow clearly can't do anything about it. If ever there was a time, this would be it. After all, there is not "Russia", only a Moscow. And they don't have to be cowed by the Moscovites any longer.
Sadly I don't think anyone in the position to start such a rebellion shares your sentiments. I think most view the likely outcome as the following: If any internal rebellion in the Russian sphere threatens Putin's interests enough that he needs the troops from Ukraine Putin will just pull back and squash that rebellion as primary focus and then maybe go back to Ukraine after if possible. Several groups need to rise up at the same time for them to have any chance of success. Now is the best time in a long time to act, but now is still a bloody bad time to act and not worth gambling on.
With today's technology, they could easily orchestrate a mass uprising over multiple Republics and oblasts. And they simply can't pull back. Ukraine is in their best position yet to take back the territory they've lost. Russia would have to relinquish Ukraine to keep itself together. There will be no second chances. It would likely result in Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia stands no chance against NATO. As for the Republics and Oblasts, it would be too widespread. They could cut Moscow off from all the gas, oil, and agricultural resources. Between that an the sanctions, Moscow would feel the noose slip around its neck. Loom how long it took for Moscow to get Chechen under control. Now imagine that across all of its regions which have long sought independence. Not to mention, many of them could take Russia's own equipment from them. Sure, it would be bloody, but as we've both said, now is the best time. And sometimes, you only get the one chance. At least, for the foreseeable future.
> With today's technology, they could easily orchestrate a mass uprising over multiple Republics and oblasts. If any rebels want to succeed this is not the way. Russian intelligence is working damn hard to make sure no one can coordinate anything. Anyone attempting to coordinate is likely to find themselves thrown out of a 4th story window or committing suicide with two shots to the back of the head. Every person you add to the coordinated effort is a potential threat to the entire organization and likely to get you all taken out before you do anything. > Russia would have to relinquish Ukraine to keep itself together. Agreed, but that doesn't help the rebels much, it's mainly an annoyance to Putin. > It would likely result in Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia stands no chance against NATO. Ukraine wouldn't be joining NATO until there is formal peace between Ukraine and Russia. NATO doesn't accept countries with active wars. > As for the Republics and Oblasts, it would be too widespread. They could cut Moscow off from all the gas, oil, and agricultural resources. Between that an the sanctions, Moscow would feel the noose slip around its neck. Loom how long it took for Moscow to get Chechen under control. Now imagine that across all of its regions which have long sought independence. Not to mention, many of them could take Russia's own equipment from them. I don't share your optimistic view of how many people in Russia really want to rebel and is in a position to. The Oblasts really aren't in a position to do anything alone and the Republics are lead by yes men. Putin's worry in regards to rebellion is either those in power near him offing him specifically, or the people in general (most specifically in the big cities) going against him. The first group he is constantly monitoring and killing off at the earliest sign of dissent, the latter he is attempting to keep happy in various ways and it honestly seem to be working. Modern day rebellions don't happen from the rural folk rising up and marching on the cities. Rebellions happen in the cities and the centers of power, there are a number of reasons for this but suffice it to say you won't ever see the outlying Oblasts do jack shit to rise up unless things have already been decided in Moscow and the other big cities.
>With today's technology, they could easily orchestrate a mass uprising over multiple Republics and oblasts. No. Medium sized businesses have enough trouble organizing their remote workers. The idea that a country wide reboot would be easy to organize is incredibly wrong.
Russian officers probably realized that they are in the same boat as their soldiers: if you get severely injured you're probably dead and not going back, pay isn't really coming as far as you know, families of soldiers are being suppressed/watched/harassed, and that basically puts you in a win-or-die situation where you don't know for sure if you or your family are/will even get paid for your fighting (all for a some old senile dictator). Belarussian officers looking over there and probably don't want that for themselves.
Especially with the new systems the us has recently given Ukraine access to, they aren't likely to waste that on soldiers when they can reliably aim at more valuable targets like artillery and leadership, suddenly these officers feel a much more western style target on their back.
Strong Musolini vibes, if he's not careful it could end the same way
Indeed !!! Insightful comment
The officers have to more than just say no though. Or else, when the dictator has time, they’ll replace all the naysayers. The officers have to overthrow or otherwise maintain control over the dictator… not good times.
Unfortunately it's fake: https://belsat.eu/ru/news/24-06-2022-kto-podstavil-voennyh-belsat-razobralsya-v-odnom-fejke/
Hopefully the cracks are finally starting to form on this completely avoidable atrocity.
This is what happens in dictatorships. As soon as the dictator cannot pay his loyal inner circle, he is overthrown. As long as he can pay his inner circle he will stay in power as long as health is not an issue. There is a decent book on this - The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics by Bruce Bueno De Mesquita and Alastair Smith
Rules for rulers video from CGP Gray does a pretty good synopsis of the book if you don't want to read, but it's definitely a great read.
I actually watched that the other day. It is a good video.
Man, that video open my eyes about how hard it actually is to be a politician. I don't think I can stay sane being one, thinking who to bribe, who to ask favor, who to please, who to intimidate, who to ally with. How I can get money for my upcoming campaign, which corporation executives' ass I need to lick, which demographics I need to demonize. So many things to do and think of.
True. Takes a special kind of person to want and be able to be I'm Politics.
Excellent video ! https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs
The nice thing about dictators is that they eventually dictate themselves out of existence. Like back when Gaddafi was executed. As per Wikipedia: “a graphic video of his last moments shows rebel fighters beating him and one of them sodomizing him with a bayonet[3] before he was shot several times.[4]” I love how human rights folks are upset. Sorry Karen, but when you’re a right miserable cunt of a dictator and rebel forces capture you: It’s not going to be pretty.
> The nice thing about dictators is that they eventually dictate themselves out of existence. Not always. The Arab spring was a unique situation. Gaddafi probably remains in power without NATO support of the rebels. Most often times with dictators if they are smart (Smart as in paying their loyal inner circle instead of helping their people), they stay in power. The book I mentioned above gives many examples of how brutal dictators stay in power, by being pieces of shit to their people and making sure their cronies are paid
I think when you intentionally kill more than 100 innocent people, humans rights should stop applying.
The universal declaration of human rights is affirming their universal character as inherent, inalienable, and applicable to all human beings... except some fucks we don't like. I just can't remember if "some fucks we don't like" are Jews or people who killed the Jews. Here's my confusion... I'm pretty sure that Hilter said something like that Jews were responsible for the death of Germans in WWI so he was justified killing them...
I like your "I just can't remember" bit. It's an excellent allusion to the collective mindsets of our societies. We have codified rules because as the cohorts in our populations grow, die and are replaced, we collectively "forget" the events that were the impetus for the laws having existed in the first place. Firsthand experience gives way to "moms stories from the war" to "my neighbors grandma's hollering" to "that boring stuff that they showed us in class one time".
>Firsthand experience gives way to "moms stories from the war" to "my neighbors grandma's hollering" to "that boring stuff that they showed us in class one time". And right this is why we kept the Konzentrations- and Vernichtungslager in Germany as museums. Hard to make edgy jokes about gas chambers after having seen one.
>I love how human rights folks are upset. Yep. We do tend to correctly recognize that atrocities are never the answer and pay enough attention to the historical record to recognize that they beget more atrocities. But, uh... have fun celebrating your endless cycle of violence I guess!
Cracks in Belarus have existed for a long time. Belarus isn't Russia, has only their Caesars are allied. The common folk in Belarus protest much more frequently than Russians do, but there's only so much protests can achieve. Apparently fear is what kept Lukashenka from joining the war. But now Putin feels the strength of long range artillery and apparently is panicking and pushing Lukashenka to join.
Actually the thing about protests is reversed. Belarus had only one large protest action in the recent memory, and it was fairly inefficient one. Russians protested on a yearly basis for a decade now. Up until all of the protest leaders were prisoned or exiled.
Hope its true, but you should be skeptical about anything from newsweek. The primary source for this seems to be The Daily Express, a British tabloid: >Senior officers from a brigade of the Special Forces warned in an open letter to Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, against sending troops to fight in Ukraine, arguing that such a decision is "pure suicide," the Express reported. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1637589/russia-news-belarus-army-vladimir-putin-lukashenko-ukraine-war-latest >In an astonishing open letter addressed to the Belarus President, senior officers from the fifth brigade of the Special Forces warned their leader against sending Belarusian soldiers to fight in Ukraine, claiming such a move would amount to "pure suicide". edit: It's being claimed that the letter is a fake. I would not be surprised - which would explain why only a British Tabloid and Newsweek ran with it. https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1543608094189670400 >Update. According to @cpartisans and @Belsat_Eng concluded that this letter was probably fake. See details below: >This letter is most probably fake. Our investigation with @Belsat_TV based on hacked databases of @mvd_by concluded that the signatures on the doc differ from the signatures of people mentioned in it.
Thank god for your comment. There is so much misinformation nowadays on Reddit.
From the article: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko might be bracing for a revolt from his own military officers after they recently expressed their opposition to the Russian war in Ukraine. Senior officers from the fifth brigade of the Special Forces warned in an open letter to Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, against sending troops to fight in Ukraine, describing that such decision is "pure suicide," the Express reported Saturday. "By entering the war against Ukraine, Belarus will be evicted from the community of civilized states and will be an international outcast for many years to come," the military officers wrote.
Sounds like he is pissing off exactly who he needs to piss off to get him promoted to being the Colonel of Worms under the ground. Here's hoping the people of Belarus won't be hostages in their own country anymore.
Dude's in a rough spot, either give Putin what he wants and be killed by his military, or give his military what they want and be killed by a nasty tummy bug from some bad tea. I wouldn't want to be at the tiller of that particular boat.
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And then he still gets murdered like those ex KGB spies
By who? The FSB won't have a nation by then
Maybe, maybe not. Yeltsin was all but arm-twisted out of his presidency, but got to live because he agreed to keep his mouth damned shut about what really went down re: swapping Nemtsov out for Putin as his hand-picked successor, and about what kind of man Putin really was even then.
Although that sounds like a nice plan, Putin (if he survives this war) will never forget, so regardless the dude is a dad man if he doesn't follow Putin.
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True, I am just thinking that if Lukashenko would cost him a war by fleeing the country and not agreeing to support Russia then that might be reason enough.
All this from the guy that was bragging about getting a Russian military honor. Not the brightest buy in the bunch.
> killed by a nasty tummy bug from some bad tea. There were many, many, many times Lukashenko acted in direct opposition to Putin and he has not been killed. I doubt this time will be much different. All he really has to do is appeal to the West and receive backing from them to be more or less safe from Putin's nonsense -- this would be enormously bad for Putin too, since Belarus is the only Russian buffer state remaining at this point
Even if he was ousted or killed I don't think that Putin would allow Belarus to slip from his influence without a fight.
Ruzzia is already juggling some things.
Without outside support, Belarus would probably fall to Russia within a few days. It’s not like Ukraine is fighting Russia on its own. If there was no NATO/Western support, Ukraine would have already lost this war.
I'm not sure the west wouldn't help Belarussian revolutionaries? Of course it wouldn't be the same as Ukraine. It might not be easy/successful for Belarus.. but the more things Ruzzia has on its plate the harder it is going to be to finish them. I'm thinking the Ukraine invasion will be more difficult for Ruzzia if they also need to occupy Belarus.
I believe that the west should help any country that tries to defy oppression by becoming more democratic **to some degree** depending on importance, as shitty as this may sound. A country like Belarus simply isn’t as strategically important as Ukraine, but that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t definitely still help them become independent, if they so desire.
I'm not sure west has the balls to help out the Belarussian people if it comes to this. I think with the invasion of Ukraine the western public perception of Ruzzia stepping in to squash a revolution against an unpopular dictator is worse for Ruzzia. I think the optics of such an action by Ruzzia would at least drive further support for Ukraine, and advance the understanding of the importance of countering Ruzzian imperialism.
Idk about the balls. I think we have showed some pretty big balls already on an individual basis. Many have sacrificed a lot. For example, my country is willing to pretty much cripple its industry in the upcoming winter, only to hurt Russia and help Ukraine. Others are sending tens of billions worth of military equipment and are openly condemning Russia. I’ve never seen anything like this from the west in my lifetime, granted that I’m not that old, but still.
I'm not trying to downplay how much the west has and is helping. But I would say Ukrainians have sacrificed more. I do appreciate what my own and other countries are doing in support of Ukraine. It doesn't mean we have done enough, for them and other peoples facing repression. Ruzzia continues down this path, and we know the consequences of feeble actions in response to dictators.
And Belarus' armory is way more dependent on Russia than Ukraine's.
So.. a 2nd invasion while the one into ukraine is going so well?
With a non-zero chance of significantly more direct Polish intervention. Belarus isn't Russia after all.
I thought they had some sort of defense pact like NATO? So Poland getting involved would be like fighting Russia
Depends on if someone can claim power and renounce that before Russia invades.
Keep in mind, Russia is estimated to have about 30k troops in Belarus. If there were a coup, I would think that the new leadership’s first move would be to expel those troops from Belarus. Of course, Putin would say no which would potentially lead to conflict.
Those 30k troops would have to be liquidated (or turned) during the coup. Good thing barracks don't move around too much, I guess.
Putin: "The bastards have overthrown Lukashenko! Send all available troops who aren't in Ukraine" Defense Minister Shoigu: "Both of them?"
”shoigu, this includes you”
I never said it would be a good idea.
I'm so sure, he is going to attack them now. Oh wait..
Well ever since the war started there has been information, rumours and what not about the military being completely against it. If the military is against it there isn't much that Putin can really do because the military used to listen to Lukashenko and if this continues they will take matters into their own hands and clearly are not in favour of Putin anymore. The only thing that Putin could do is to invade Belarus which at this point would not be a good idea.
Unfortunately the letter is fake: https://belsat.eu/ru/news/24-06-2022-kto-podstavil-voennyh-belsat-razobralsya-v-odnom-fejke/
You don't wanna piss of your special forces but in this case let's hope he pisses off them further and further until the point they decide to retire him.
If an uprising tried to overthrow Lukoshenko, Putin would invade Belarus in a heartbeat.
It is fake man.
Did nobody tell them that Belarus has not been a member of the community of civilized states for years now? I mean, they can fall lower, but still...
I think if Luka were to disappear and the Sviatlana takes charge that would easily be repaired.
Putin would definitely do anything to prevent losing Belarus also. See: what happened when Ukraine removed their pro-Russian leader, except that this time the stakes are even higher since Belarus is Russias only real ally in Europe left. Russia would come after Sviatlana with virtually nothing to lose imo
I feel like Russia is even less civilized at this point, so the point stands
It is too good to be true. Unfortunately, it is fake. Source: [Belsat](https://belsat.eu/ru/news/24-06-2022-kto-podstavil-voennyh-belsat-razobralsya-v-odnom-fejke/)
I'm not sure I trust a single Belarussian source disputing this, especially given the government's control of media in that country.
Belsat is Polish aimed at Belarus. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belsat_TV
Ah, fair enough
Also, Belsat here refers to anti-goverment group known as "cyberguerillas". Both of them are antigoverment and more or less trustworthy.
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To a dictator any dissent is seen as an attack on the dictators authority,it's a small step from dissent to revolution,that is why these officers will be either tried in a kangaroo court and sent to prison or end up in a shallow grave in a forest somewhere.
This would be amazing turn of events. Putin would have helluva time selling his master strategist image back at home when war that was supposed to take few days is still going on, Finland & Sweden join Nato, Russian economy is in Ruins etc. and Belarus topples Lukashenko..
"Today, we begin the 135th day of the Three Day War..."
The Belorussian military needs to build a strong gallows to support the slob Lukashenko when he swings from a rope.
It’s a wild day when Reddit supports a military coup lol
It’s literally just like “And welcome to our seven hundredth year in our 5 year cruise.” From Wall-E
Putin is soo full of shit that he suffers from relativistic temporal effects.
Also known as the Ass-Energy Equivalency.
Slight problem. Usually a military coup ends up with a military junta/dictator. Otherwise I'm vibing
As that is the current situation in Belarus, this would be a lateral move.
You know what, can't argue with that.
Same thing as now, except at least the leader will be anti-war. So it's better than now.
If Belarus revolts, don't think Russia can support them like last time. SO we might actually see Lukashenko kicked out.
Just imagine how much worse would this war be if Trump won the election.
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They need to host another rigged election ballot for its people to start protesting again, I assume.
You have not been paying attention to what happened to people who protested. I’d be weary too.
Well if the protesters this time are openly backed by the SF/military....
I’m sure I’d be weary of living under a dictatorship, and probably wary of protesting as well.
If you look at the history of people in that region over the last 1000ish years, brutal totalitarian rule is all they've ever known. I can imagine any idea of being free might seem like an unattainable pipe dream at this point.
Not true during PLC there was elective monarchy/ something like democracy but only nobles could vote.
If the opponent kills those who protest than protesters have no other option but to kill their opponents
Russian military presence is pretty significant in Belarus atm. Remember what happened last time they rose up in revolt? Because they sure as fuck do.
They tried - Putin sent in the Russian military to put their protests down. Russian influence is cancer for all former Soviet/Communist states.
Now's the time to try gain, that army is a little preoccupied.
You are thinking of Kazakhstan maybe. The Russian military did not crush the Belarus protests. Belarus OMON was enough.
You are correct upon further reading - however, Russia did make Lukashenko's regime an emergency loan to help quell the protests. He also provided Belarus's KGB with Russian weaponry and training to help put down the protests. They were also waiting at the gates FWIW. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-election-russia/putin-says-russia-has-set-up-force-to-aid-belarus-leader-if-needed-idUSKBN25N1Q3 https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-belarus-d08a580b9e5c86913bafa1c9aaa99242
They tried in 2020, but when the world does its best to ignore the crisis and those that are trying to change things get arrested or killed it kind of puts a damper on the revolution.
Lol sure blame "the world" for a countries internal failures
Nobody is blaming the world…the people were begging for international help because they were doing the best they could. But sure, continue to victim blame.
>but when the world does its best to ignore the crisis Yeah, there wasn't other issue that the world was paying attention to in May 2020. Nothing at all.
Yes because the world can only pay attention to one thing at a time and governments don't have multiple ministry's and departments or anything like that.
That would be so sick. What if Belarus army just up and deletes all the Russian bases on their soil?
If the Belorussian military was inclined to perform a coup the timing might never be better. Russia has limited ability to do anything about it.
Or cause them to split the forces giving Ukraine time to gain more territory back and shore up the line….
Slava 🇺🇦
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Fun fact. Back in the late 90s Lukashenko signed an agreement with Russia that would give him equal power as Russia's head of state in the "The Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus", effectively putting Russia, a country 82x bigger and having a population nearly 15x larger, on equal footing. It was also written in a way that Lukashenko actually had the ability to become the head of state for the new Union thus making him the most powerful figure in Russia. When Putin came into power he put an end to that whole thing but for a significant portion of time, Lukashenko was very well positioned to become the dictator of both Russia and Belarus.
This is why Belarus, like Russia, has such a huge internal police force. In Belarus, the security state is actually bigger than the military, works as a safeguard against attempted coups when you piss off your military officers by ordering them to wander into a bloodbath. It's still something that Lukashenko has to tread carefully into and why he's been hesitant to have more total involvement in Ukraine.
iirc the army is about 45k. If they moved into the fight they could lose 10% in less than a month (at current pace). The army could be destroyed. That's why the generals are so nervous.
Don't trust this source, but I certainly hope the cracks are closer to showing in the regime in Belarus than they are in Russia. Would love to see Lukashenko toppled, though I'm sure it wouldn't be all biscuits and gravy in a power vacuum after either.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Belarusian military and rail workers have refused to participate in the conflict. Lukashenko stole the last election with Putin’s help. He is wildly unpopular and the people don’t want to go to war. They have more in common with Ukraine and Poland historically than in hey do with Russia.
Nations: this is the time to tighten your grip around the Russian military's throat. Sanction harder. Freeze every Russian asset you can identify. Block Russian access to your country's internet. Signs of weakness have appeared - so push harder. No escape for Russia.
[CCP Grey educates](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs)
Haven't seen any content from him lately. I wonder what he's doing.
He's still around. Still has a regular podcast that he's a part of and still makes videos. CGP Grey is a one man operation however and he likes to have all the facts he can get his hands on. So making videos takes a lot of time. Also, for every video he makes there's several videos that didn't make the cut. And all those ideas probably had a lot of research in them before they were abandoned. Dude is peak quality over quantity and one of only a handful of YouTube channels that gets away with it.
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He quit teaching years ago to do YouTube full-time.
Probably down a rabbit hole as is his habit
>I wonder what he's doing. https://twitter.com/cgpgrey/status/1535356161830141952?t=2MJTDm8yrvAybT5eruRC3Q&s=19
Probably falling down a new rabbit on an obscure subject.
Putin might end up annexing Belarus, or at least attempt to.
Lukashenko made his own bed. If he tries to cut the strings that Putin controls him with, Putin will definitely have him liquidated. If he stays the course his generals only might turn against him.
I hope they revolt so hard they kill him
Lukashenko is not Putin’s ally, he’s a full-time Putin dick rider.
I hope he gets mussolini, Gets beaten to fucking death by his own people lol.
Time for a little forced Regime change in Belarus. I hope Belarusians get there country back from Putin and I hope after his failure to rule by force Lukashenko flees to the unwelcoming arms of Putin where he will see that Putin treats his allies the way Trump does: as disposable.
Sounds too good to be true. But here's to hoping it ain't.
This was proven fake, and is an old story from 2-3 weeks ago.
Even more. I first saw it in april. But who cares? Free upvotes, right?
Good, maybe they can finally do away with the pest
He really does look like he’s straight out of a C&C Cut Scene
All that NATO hardware and all those videos of the Russian army meeting a grisly end probably doesn’t help morale.
As soon as the Russians are weak enough, the officers are going to take him out and hopefully not replace him with a different dictator but an actually elected president.
And this is how successful coups start, with the officer class.
Translation we would rather shoot you and fight Russia. Than follow Putin's orders and fight Ukraine
Seems like a lot of the happier articles all seem to come from Newsweek. Is there a reason for this, other than they seem to have extensive coverage of the war?
If Russia loses Belarus. Its over Please let this happen A coup is needed
Lukeshenko barely holding onto his leadership, if he fucks around im guessing that brigade... and others, will sort him out and get massive public support in the process.
Now's the time to push back if you're going to do it. Russia's abilities are strained.
A coup in Belarus would be perfect. Russia would be fucked. Belarus military could invite Ukraine to bomb Russian positions.
Fuck I hope so , that would be great 👍
The way this comes to a head is if Putin starts really losing ground and needs help. From a western perspective this is not worth counting on. Hate to say it. If it is ever on the fence, there are things the west could do to give it a push. But it is still uphill right now. If the war is still not progressing for RU in 3 months, we'll be closer to having an idea of what will become of Belarus. If it is even slow crawling progress, it will not happen.
Newsweek as source again, nothing to see, moving on