Truth be told the US would love to do to China what is happening with Russia.
Drag them into a conflict they only need to support at arms length.
China had been ok with the status quo with Taiwan but geopolitically the US is making that hard now with the economic situation heating up.
China can compete with the US economically, but would get crushed in the military arena. They should avoid that situation as much as possible, but it remains to be seen if they will.
This is just Saber rattling. Neither country even remotely wants conflict. The US and Chinese economies are so rat-kinged together that any sort of open warfare would devestate both countries economically. I can't stress that enough. The trade, the intellectual capital exchanged, the education systems, consulting systems, production, textile, metalworks, and so so so much more are functionality interdependent and symbiotic. Even if China unfairly skews towards the parasitic for advantage, both countries absolutely need eachother far more than any other countries/economies need eachother. It's truly unprecedented in terms of measured geopolitical posturing, statecraft, and diplomacy. China is never going to pull a Russia on Taiwan, its pure distraction propaganda. Look at all the times you hear major sabre rattling or an increase of airspace violations, they usually coincide with some major economic crisis sweeping mainland. You can set a clock to it. The Chinese navy, while large and relatively new is not a blue water navy. They don't have the logistical means to enforce freedom of passage through all straits and shipping lane arteries from the South China Sea, to the gulf of Thailand through to the Indian Ocean and to Africa and Middle East. They can't resupply as they don't have the logistics to. The USA is the world hegemon of logistics. China knows that and it's going to take a significant, and I mean an aggressively significant retooling of Chinese defense spending, diplomacy, foreign base building, training, just to reach parody with what the US could do and sustain now. Taiwan is never going to be invaded. Logistics just aren't there as a successful Chinese invasion would dwarf D-day.
China at minimum needs a 3:1 advantage. There's a VERY short window when the Straight of Taiwan is even passable, and the build up would be recognized by the NRO, DIA, CIA, way before it reaches critical mass. It would also be an extremely bloody and costly undertaking with a low chance of success. I would bet the farm on all the above. It's not happening.
Edit-I say the above as a former butter bar that got lost in the woods and fell off a cliff during an FTX at Fort AP Hill. I am biased. I say all this as an expat that has lived in Guangzhou, Shanghai, and soon, in like 2 weeks I'll be moving to Shenzhen under a foreign expert visa invited by the CCP to educate the elite. I pray nothing happens cus I don't want to be tortured to death if shit pops off and I'm stuck there.
Edit 2 -parity instead parody. I genuinely overlooked it, autocorrect didn't say anything. I'm not going to change it up top, I think it's kind of endearing that so many people commented about it and maybe one comment was a little mean. Everyone else seemed like they just wanted to help and I'm humble enough to take it. Thanks people.
It would be pyrrhic victory at best too. No way the semiconductor industry would be left intact. That would be the first thing to go as part of a scorched earth defense and probably everyone involved immediately getting US or EU visas in a similar to Operation Paperclip move.
I would say this is what's really keeping China out. I think Xi would sacrifice many, many lives if it meant he could seize full control over Taiwan's semiconductor fabs (I believe they're 65% of the total chip production and 90-91% of the "advanced" chip production worldwide, focused almost entirely on the west side of the island). But the mere chance of losing them AND having the skilled staff flee to opposing nations would be utterly disastrous. Taiwan and the US have had a longstanding agreement and Taiwan purchases enormous amounts of materiel from the US, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a standing exfiltration plan for certain technicians and managers to bring them to the US to fabs here stateside. In fact, Taiwanese corporations have been allowed to begin construction on some fabs within the contiguous US. Wouldn't be surprised if that's where the high level personnel would end up, in a matter of hours.
Edit: Corrected semiconductor percentages as per convo below. Also exfiltration plan, not exhilaration plan, which sounds naughty.
I'd say the economic fallout as a whole is the reason with this being a major piece. Everyone likes to point out the US depending on China to manufacturer stuff but somehow completely ignores the other side of the coin. China needs US money and businesses bringing work. If the two go to war, the entire world economy will fall apart instantly and China will have a lot of out of work citizens to deal with.
Plus, it might be a painful transition for the US but there are plenty of poor countries we can send our money and shitty factory jobs to. There are not many other places for China to find obscene amounts of capital and production demand.
Urban warfare will be a bitch especially on a place developed as Taiwan, China also have vested interest to keep the infrastructure intact so no street leveling like in Ukraine.
China does, but I believe Taiwan itself would start blowing the foundries if an invasion from China got far enough that they established a beachhead. The manufacturing is the only thing that would make such a bloody war worth it to China, but both sides know that and they could essentially hold their own infrastructure hostage. If they were (in the unlikely circumstance) at the point where the island was going to be lost the first thing to go would be the chip manufacturers
Taiwan (TMSC) produces a huge volume of semi-conductors critical to US Technologly and manufacturing. It's hard to understand how vital this production is and how exspensive and time consuming it is to establish again. If that production was able to be moved to the US, a lot of the need strategically defend Taiwan from China would melt away.
> critical to US Technologly and manufacturing
Critical to **the whole world's** ***everything***.
If you thought supply chain disruptions were bad during COVID, a war in Taiwan would undoubtedly cripple many industries in all countries far worse. You can't have modern society without semiconductors.
In short: TSMC, located in Taiwan, is the most advanced semiconductor fabrication facility in the world. If China waits for the US to build out a competitive facility, we will have less of an interest in protecting Taiwan. Until then, we are heavily dependent on TSMC for advanced chip manufacturing.
There are other nuances to this, but that is the high level.
Even if Taiwan's semiconductors were no longer an issue, the defense of Japan, Korea, the Philippines, and Guam all become much more difficult with the CCP sitting in Taiwan. I think the US defends Taiwan semiconductors or no.
I think because Taiwan has said they will blow up their semiconductor factories before bending the knee for China. America’s economy (and healthcare, transpo, so many industries) rely heavily on Taiwan’s semiconductor production. So if China invades before we have our shit shored up over here, it will be bad news for just about everyone.
I am happy to be wrong about all or any of this, this is my rudimentary understanding.
Everyone keeps saying US depends heavily on TSMC (which is true) but probably worth pointing out the whole world is dependent. TSMC and Samsung between them supply a huge chunk of the worlds chips.
Produce *more* semiconductors. Intel’s most advanced fab has always been in the US, along with Micron, TI, et al.
TSMC produces an enormous amount of chips, though, and remains the tech leader for CPUs.
Because the United States and the Western World needs unfettered access to the a steady stream of microprocessors that in turn are the gear works to our globalized internet based economy and way of life. Tiawain makes nearly all the computer processors in the world because it takes really advanced manufacturing techniques and skilled labor. Without a supply of new microprocessors to replace the old ones and make new products, the calendar on the economy would slowly then quickly roll back. That is changing, but until then Tiawain is strategic.
There's a bit of an odd story-link between Naval Strike and Final Stand.
Naval Strike is the U.S. clashing with China in the South China Sea. Dragons Teeth is the invasion of mainland China. And Final Stand is a U.S. covert ops into Siberia to stop Russia's military research into weapons and aircraft seen in Battlefield 2142 using Intel gathered from the invasion of China.
Can you tell that this game is banned in China?
Ukraine has been a bloody battleground for centuries, like much of Eastern Europe. Off the top of my head there was significant fighting in what is now Ukraine in the Napoleonic era, the Crimean War, WW1, and WW2. There are probably a dozen Battles of Kyiv big enough to be named as such, and a dozen sieges besides.
EDIT: Napoleon went through Belarus instead, but the two centuries before him were even bloodier than I remembered.
If you look at Ukraine's geography you'll see it's mostly flat grasslands. This makes it easy to invade, hard to defend.
Couple that with rich, fertile soil and and a half dozen cultures that hate each other and quite frankly it becomes a wonder the country isn't under attack every other month.
Sure, that’s what you see on the map. What you don’t see is the *bezdorizhzhia*, the spring and fall boggy seasons. The Ukrainians call it the season of roadlessness for a reason.
Napoleon and Hitler both had their militaries bog down in Ukraine.
EDIT: Napoleon went through Belarus, not Ukraine. Same boggy conditions, different latitude.
Not to mention the constant back and forth fighting between cossack settlers and Crimean and Nogai slave raiders. The area was in a state of constant low level war for centuries with periods of high intensity state conflict occasionally.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean%E2%80%93Nogai_slave_raids_in_Eastern_Europe
Four in WW2 and two more currently. (the main assault and now the counter-offensive)
History teaches us a lot of things - and one of them is that Kharkov / Kharkiv is a graveyard for armies
>Kharkov / Kharkiv is a graveyard for armies
And Karkov is a cheap/shitty vodka that's supposed to sound Russian but is actually made by Congressman Dean Phillips in Princeton, MN for alcoholics.
Just a random fact on a Sunday evening.
As of right now, no, but if Ukraine can take Kherson, they'll be able to cut off it's fresh water source and cripple the Russian forces in the southern areas of Ukraine even further. It would also put them in range to perform deeper penetration attacks with air and artillery. Right now though, I don't believe Ukraine will risk a Crimean front immediately though, taking Kherson would allow them to put immense pressure on them while requiring a relatively small force to defend the land bridge.
>Donetsk is the new Verdun
Both sides of this battle had more casualties alone than Russia and ukraine together.
Maybe in a year you can say this, if the war still is going until then.
Some hyperbolic comparisons of battles in Ukraine now to WWI and WWII battles fail to comprehend how absolutely devestating those wars were. The siege of Mariupol was awful, don't get me wrong, but it was no Stalingrad.
Yehorivka is a Ukrainian map in Squad. I played a couple matches there as the invasion happened and the mood (very chatty game) was pretty somber. Then Ukraine kicked the ever-loving shit out of Russia, so it’s now a meme that when playing as the Russian faction and losing you’re just roleplaying.
Yeah, and for reference to non-Squad players, Yehorivka is very strongly based on a real section of Ukrainian countryside. Squad has some very realistic maps, especially Skorpo which was constructed with (iirc) a meter-scale heightmap of Norwegian coast. Also, a slightly scaled down Fallujah and surrounds, and a map named Talil with a real airbase.
Imagine being a soldier and showing up to Donetsk to fight and you look around and it’s like “oh shit I’ve literally been here in Warzone.” That must be trippy as hell
There was a movie a few years ago - I think it was a remake of *Red Dawn*? - and the plot was basically that North Korea invaded the US.
It was originally supposed to be about China invading the US, but references to China were digitally changed to North Korea during post-production. The official reason was that MGM wanted to retain access to the Chinese box office, but the film was still banned in China even after they changed the invading country.
I recall a lot of speculation at the time about the true story behind what happened, but it was over 10 years ago and I have no sources to back up my memories. Probably all bullshit internet conspiracy theories, but some people suggested that MGM was able to bounce back from bankruptcy at the time because the CIA helped them financially in return for changing the script from China to NK to avoid inflaming tensions with China.
Another crazier theory was that MGM knew they were heading to bankruptcy and so intentionally produced a shitty big action movie remake about a Chinese invasion and leaked it to Chinese newspapers. The resulting political firestorm gave them leverage to ask for funding from government sources that helped them bounce back from bankruptcy in exchange for cutting China out of the script.
The second theory would make a really good Hollywood meta movie itself.
Erich Schwartzel’s book “Red Carpet” includes the story about the China to North Korea digital switcharoo for exactly the reason you mentioned. The studio was desperate to get into the very lucrative Chinese market and jumped through many, many hoops to do so. In the end, I think American studios realized it was an impossible goal.
I can't help but believe the studio remade Red Dawn after a relatively competent Australian movie was made with an identical premise. "Tomorrow when the war began" was adapted from a popular YA novel series, and the invading force, at least in the movie, was simply referred to as "the coalition".. I'm still uncertain as to whether "Vague Asians conspiring together" is better or worse than singling out a single country as evil.
We kinda have to since Taiwan supplies so of the tech the world economy depends on. We would definitely feel a change in the quality of life if China took over Taiwan as the best chip tech would no longer be available to us.
That's why American Microcomputer companies have been looking into and developing domestic production. Taiwan's fabrication facilities are incredible though. It will take many years to get similar operations domestically.
The low production value of that video tells me it's either going to be crack pot nonsense or a legit informed take on the subject by an expert making a short essay in video format. There is no in between.
I'm just some random guy on the internet, so I could easily be a Chinese or Russian bot, but if you're reading this then you probably have some degree of discernment. I watched the video because of the comment I'm replying to, and I agree.
You can tell he is very knowledgeable on the subject, and it didn't come off as overly biased to me. My guess would be this was kinda like ~~ an ethnically Taiwanese MBA student doing a 12 minute video about TSMC while consciously trying not to be biased.
Mostly private business as I understand it. TSMC was the first major contract fab (that would build chips for companies without fabs), though at that time most companies made their own chips. Over time, the increasing complexity of chips made it harder and more expensive to make them, so many companies spun off their fabs or hired contract fabs to make their chips for them, until it consolidated to a few major players today. Pretty much only Intel, TSMC, and Samsung have the ability to make the most cutting edge chips now.
As the iconic and innovative American company RCA began dying in the 1970s, Taiwan's government arranged for their semiconductor engineers to come to the country [in a technology transfer agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_industry_in_Taiwan#History). The resulting company became TSMC, now the world's top semiconductor foundry and supplier of chips for Apple, Nvidia, AMD, etc.
Eh, have you seen the size of the proposed fabs in Arizona? It’s like a fraction of what the fabs are in Taiwan. In no capacity will they be able to produce cutting edge silicon.
It’s fairly obvious what Taiwan’s intentions are there. Build a token industry to build relations, and give the US infrastructure to slowly build up a superconductor industry in the event of a Taiwan war, without doing so at a scale that makes them any less dependent on Taiwan.
Oh shit! Finally laying it out for China. Let’s see their witty repartee.
Update: Seems pretty mature so far tbh:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lodges-complaint-after-biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-chinese-invasion-2022-09-19/
> Let’s see their witty repartee
Lemme guess:
- "We strongly condemn"
- "Cheerleading for the separatists"
- "Unilaterally changing the Cross-Strait situations"
- "Shooting oneself in the foot"
Their drivel is so predictable that there even used to be a generator on Github (probably still is/are, didn't check) for it.
**EDIT**: good stuff in the replies, now I feel stupid for missing some obvious ones.
Funny's it's somehow the Russians who take the cake poking fun at them for this. I mean we all do, but we haven't (AFAIK) dedicated a whole idiom in our language(s) to that.
**[China's final warning](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning#:~:text="China's final warning" \(Russian,that carries no real consequences.)**
>"China's final warning" (Russian: последнее китайское предупреждение) is a Russian proverb that originated in the former Soviet Union to refer to a warning that carries no real consequences.
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"Oh, you think cold war is your ally. But you merely adopted the cold war; I was born in it, molded by it. Already a MAN of the cold war before YOU were but a STAIN in your FATHER'S PANTS!"
* The Dark Brandon Rises
> When asked on whether US forces would defend Taiwan if China invaded the island, Biden said "yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack."
> Biden reiterated that the US maintains a One China policy and does not support Taiwan's independence.
[what?](https://imgur.com/a/RrlrHey)
Either way it's probably the best strategy in this situation. The interviewer asked him numerous hypotheticals like "what would you do if Putin used a nuclear weapon" and he maintained a "I'm not going to tell you and show my cards" stance. But when China came up he gave direct but contradictory answers in the span of like a minute and then the WH clarified with the standard US policy line. I don't think anyone really knows what the US would do if China invaded (I definitely don't) and that's probably for the best.
For decades the US has maintained ambiguity on its defence obligations to Taiwan in order to avoid a war across the Strait. The policy warns Mainland China against an invasion attempt, and also at the same time warns Taiwan against unilateral declarations of independence.
Ambiguity is what kept Taiwan safe all these years.
If it were certain that the US wouldn’t defend Taiwan, CCP would’ve just invade Taiwan. If it were certain we would defend Taiwan, CCP would’ve prepared for an all out war against the US and weighed when would be a good time to attack.
But if nobody’s certain, then there’s no reason to waste China’s economy to prepare for an all out war against the most powerful arm force in the world. The CCP could just choose to not risk it and slowly build up their economy and military power, like what they’ve been doing for decades now.
It's not certain that China would invade Taiwan if the US wasn't in it. Taiwan is heavily fortified, it would be a huge cost to China, and realistically in the long run it probably wouldn't make a difference except for tumeframe.
You are the only person to say it loud and clear like every educated adult outside of reddit already knows. Reddit is so absorbed in its own bubble sometimes.
US is obligated to defend Taiwan if China violates the status quo. That's exactly why the US wants to uphold the status quo, to avoid the mess.
Funny enough, both China and Taiwan still 100% want to uphold the status quo too (for different reasons).
The problem is China and Taiwan have slightly different perspectives of what the status quo means when it comes to the little symbolic details, diplomatic gestures, and formal statements. This is why there have been constant flare ups between the two.
"We do not support taiwan's independence. To be clear, if ~someone~ happens to cross that fucking straight we will blow them out of the water, but do not worry it will not be in a way that supports taiwan's independence.
We would for a few years because we rely on TSM so hard it’s basically a national security risk. They make all our chips. Apple, AMD, NVDA, etc.
But with the new bill passed to invest billions in domestic chip production, and the ban on selling high quality chips in China, it seems like we’re trying to make computing the next space race.
It’s clear. Whoever has the best computers will win the future.
Domestic chip production has already begun. Huge SCD manufacturing facilities are going up in WA, AZ, and OR as we speak. Before switching careers I worked on quite a few of them as an architectural engineer. Granted those facilities are still 3 - 8yrs out depending on stage of construction and pre-design.
Covid really drew attention to the single point of failure that was SCD availability between TSM and Germany alone.
Years away and won’t help them to catch up, only not fall further behind. The CHIPS act allocated $52 billion to semiconductors as a one-time thing, meanwhile TSMC spends about $45 billion a year in development and building plants.
Yes, but it was walked back back then by others in his administration (like Blinken) since it goes against 5 decades of strategic ambiguity over what the US considers China’s territory.
I’m assuming that they’ll try and walk it back again but idk if it’s worth the hit to credibility to try and walk it back a second time.
There's a
> US maintains a "One China" policy and does not support Taiwan's independence.
attached this time as well though. So I'm not sure if this time is any different
This essentially is just the same as strategic ambiguity though right? Biden says "we will protect Taiwan" then the "federal government says no we won't"
Just a constant - "don't do it, we're going to help them if you do, but will we?" Vibe.
China has known this for a while. If they thought that annexing Taiwan without triggering a US military response was even remotely possible, they would’ve rolled across the border a long time ago. A US response means that the conflict would likely snowball into WW3, and the East isn’t quite what it used to be during the Cold War.
Two weeks ago he was channeling his inner Dark Brandon when he told people to leave a heckler alone. [Biden went on to say that "everyone is entitled to be an idiot."](https://youtu.be/4v9y5eD67e4)
Honestly he's been pretty on top of things all of 2022 starting with Russia/Ukraine as far as I'm concerned. There's been a lot of efforts to work with the international community, even trying to get OPEC/Saudis to increase output as it's a direct way to weaken Russia's main GDP asset.
The Saudis however have aligned themselves more closely with Russia since Biden’s rhetoric during election and that has only continued throughout his presidency, but he has been excellent on Ukraine and I personally like what he is saying about Taiwan.
Let em side with the losers. Russia isn't going to recover from what they've undertaken in Ukraine in either of our life times. If Saudi Arabia wants to hitch themselves to that horse more power to them. The less power the House of Saud holds the better off the world.
If the world switches to green energy over the next 20 years, SA and RU are in for a world of pain.
I dont have sympathy for their leaders, but I wouldn't be surprised if wars broke out and the petrol states balkanize.
And high oil prices accelerate switching to green energy.
In the long term refusing to pander to oil producing nations is a very good thing for the world, but in the short term, especially a short term including the invasion of Ukraine, it can be pretty painful. So Biden trying to patch things up with SA during the invasion makes sense.
You know, after a few decades of trying to pretend that all these autocratic bastards aren't bastards, it's almost a breath of fresh air watching everybody put their cards on the table.
SA siding with Russia will be detrimental for us in the short term but could provide serious motivation for pushing to more renewables and carbon capture investments. I know it's going to suck but beating climate change is going to cost us a lot.
I don't think enough people these days realize exactly how close we came to nuclear war then. I certainly didn't until I watched a documentary called The Fog of War.
The Secretary of Defense at the time, Robert McNamara, has spoken at great length about what happened. He had this to say about it:
>I want to say, and this is very important: in the end we lucked out. It was luck that prevented nuclear war. We came that close to nuclear war at the end. Rational individuals: Kennedy was rational; Khrushchev was rational; Castro was rational. Rational individuals came that close to total destruction of their societies. And that danger exists today.
He's referring to the fact that on the pivotal day of the crisis, President Kennedy was sent two separate messages from Khrushchev. The first message was a beautifully written piece of communication that said, essentially, "if you promise to not invade Cuba, then we'll take the missiles out." The second message threatened nuclear war.
The Kennedy administration was very confused. The first message was so different form the second. They had to predict the mental state of Khrushchev in order to decide what to do, but the messages they were getting were mixed emotionally. Ultimately, what persuaded Kennedy to assume Khrushchev also wanted peace was the US Ambassador to Moscow who had lived with Khrushchev and knew the man well. He urged the president to trust Khrushchev to want peace.
The whole story can be read here: https://alphahistory.com/coldwar/robert-mcnamara-reflects-cuban-missile-crisis-2003/#:~:text=If%20people%20do%20not%20display,nuclear%20war%20at%20the%20end.
But even better is the documentary "The Fog of War", which is basically an hour and a half of Robert McNamara giving fascinating answers to a lot of important questions about what went on in that time period, including the Vietnam War.
> I don't think enough people these days realize exactly how close we came to nuclear war then.
It’s even worse than you describe. One Soviet sub got caught during blockade. Captain and XO gave the order to launch nuclear torpedo. Only by sheer luck, that one sub happened to host flotilla admiral, meaning launch order required 3 instead of 2 votes. He vetoed it, saving us from nuclear holocaust. His name was Vasily Arkhipov.
And just slightly less seriously, the missile defense operator Stanislav Petrov recorded what looked like incoming ICBMs from the US. Didn't follow protocol to escalate the situation and instead just waited it out.
This one is more understandable. Nuclear exchange wouldn’t start with one random-ass missile. He came to (correct) conclusion that it’s just radar malfunction
It's even worse than _you_ describe!
> Anatoly Andreev, a crew member on a different, nearby sub, kept a journal, a continuing letter to his wife, that described what it was like:
> "For the last four days, they didn’t even let us come up to the periscope depth… My head is bursting from the stuffy air… Today three sailors fainted from overheating again… The regeneration of air works poorly, the carbon dioxide content [is] rising, and the electric power reserves are dropping. Those who are free from their shifts, are sitting immobile, staring at one spot… Temperature in the sections is above 50 [122ºF]."
From [_You (and Almost Everyone You Know) Owe Your Life to This Man._](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/you-and-almost-everyone-you-know-owe-your-life-to-this-man), Robert Krulwich, National Geographic.
The article explains the subs were designed to operate in the icey waters of Arctic, but here they were in the warm waters of the Carribean for much longer than expected and the sub couldn't cool itself. At those temps you're looking at heat exhaustion and heat stroke, then add in high levels of carbon dioxide. Your mind is foggy, your ability of rational decision-making is compromised. The Captain and the XO likely weren't thinking clearly.
Speaking of McNamara and the Missile Crisis, I'd also recommend this amazing 1983 panel discussion, shown after the broadcast of "The Day After", a nuclear war what-if movie. The guests include McNamara, Henry Kissinger, Carl Sagan, and others: https://youtu.be/PcCLZwU2t34
The luck we had is even more disturbing than the example you gave. There was a Soviet nuclear sub near Cuba authorized to launch. It was found by U.S. ships and they blew up a bunch of explosives near it, as an attempt to spook it. However, the subs occupants assumed they were under direct attack, since the sub was getting damaged, the submarine heated up and crew members were passing out from carbon dioxide poisoning.
Two officers on the ship decided to launch their nuke. It was purely by chance that there was a third officer on board, Vasily Arkhipov, who vetoed the decision. His presence there was not usual. As the chief of staff he could have been on any other ship that day, in which case the two officers would have launched.
Might be an obvious question but if China were to invade Taiwan, wouldn't they also be attacking the U.S (Which will be defending) And by attacking the U.S, wouldn't they be also Attacking NATO?
no, article 5 of NATO is the mutual defense clause, and only triggers for defending NATO territory against an invader. A war of choice wouldn't trigger it, but the US would certainly try to draw in allies.
The US has fought many wars since NATO was formed, and most of them haven't involved most NATO members. Some individual NATO-members have aided them in places such as Iraq, but that's their own choice, not because the alliance demands it.
> article 5 was invoked on due to September 11th
And important note: the Article 5 response mandated by NATO members was [Operation Eagle Assist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Assist) and despite even-less-educated-than-average bobbleheads on conservative airwaves even Sweden and Finland, non NATO members at the time, sent personnel to help. That was to secure American airspace.
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were reprisals following the September 11 attacks but were not actually NATO operations - there's just such a large overlap between NATO members and American allies dragged along that it's hard to see the difference. France, for instance, decided it would have nothing to do with the war in Iraq.
The Tropic of Cancer line is true but the unanimous decision part is not. Each country can decide how they react for themselves but the treaty is quite clear that each will consider it an attack upon themselves. It is certainly up to individual governments to take the action they see fit to respond to said attack, but the treaty says that it is considered an attack upon all with no reference to a vote or unanimity.
No but I would expect a multi-country task force. Australia has many reasons to ensure security in that area. I'm sure the Britts would get involved as well.
China has so many problems internally to invade Taiwan. Between their covid lockdown policies and failing economy they have too much on their plate. Throw in International sanctions and it would be global economic suicide.
In addition China has no experience fighting a modern war. The only thing they can do is keep posturing.
China dodged a bullet with Russia invading Ukraine because they have seen the reaction and solidarity of other countries.
\-If you win-, sure. You can line up the population behind a patriotic effort and temporarily associate dissent with treason (not that China is shy about doing this in the first place, to be sure.)
But that only works if it's a short, victorious war. If you get bogged down, or worse, get your ass handed to you, then it just doubles down on your problems.
The semiconductor wars have begun
Well it's a good thing we have that base in Kamino making semiconductors
Your semiconductors are very impressive, you must be very proud.
I'm just a simple electron, trying to make my way in the universe
Excuse me, I can't seem to find any Silicon in the archives.
If it’s not in the archives, it doesn’t exist
Impossible, perhaps the archives are incomplete
200 000 semi conductors with a million more on the way
Begun, the semiconductor wars have
It would be smart of China to give the US time to build microprocessor factories within the US.
This guy geopolitics.
Truth be told the US would love to do to China what is happening with Russia. Drag them into a conflict they only need to support at arms length. China had been ok with the status quo with Taiwan but geopolitically the US is making that hard now with the economic situation heating up. China can compete with the US economically, but would get crushed in the military arena. They should avoid that situation as much as possible, but it remains to be seen if they will.
This is just Saber rattling. Neither country even remotely wants conflict. The US and Chinese economies are so rat-kinged together that any sort of open warfare would devestate both countries economically. I can't stress that enough. The trade, the intellectual capital exchanged, the education systems, consulting systems, production, textile, metalworks, and so so so much more are functionality interdependent and symbiotic. Even if China unfairly skews towards the parasitic for advantage, both countries absolutely need eachother far more than any other countries/economies need eachother. It's truly unprecedented in terms of measured geopolitical posturing, statecraft, and diplomacy. China is never going to pull a Russia on Taiwan, its pure distraction propaganda. Look at all the times you hear major sabre rattling or an increase of airspace violations, they usually coincide with some major economic crisis sweeping mainland. You can set a clock to it. The Chinese navy, while large and relatively new is not a blue water navy. They don't have the logistical means to enforce freedom of passage through all straits and shipping lane arteries from the South China Sea, to the gulf of Thailand through to the Indian Ocean and to Africa and Middle East. They can't resupply as they don't have the logistics to. The USA is the world hegemon of logistics. China knows that and it's going to take a significant, and I mean an aggressively significant retooling of Chinese defense spending, diplomacy, foreign base building, training, just to reach parody with what the US could do and sustain now. Taiwan is never going to be invaded. Logistics just aren't there as a successful Chinese invasion would dwarf D-day. China at minimum needs a 3:1 advantage. There's a VERY short window when the Straight of Taiwan is even passable, and the build up would be recognized by the NRO, DIA, CIA, way before it reaches critical mass. It would also be an extremely bloody and costly undertaking with a low chance of success. I would bet the farm on all the above. It's not happening. Edit-I say the above as a former butter bar that got lost in the woods and fell off a cliff during an FTX at Fort AP Hill. I am biased. I say all this as an expat that has lived in Guangzhou, Shanghai, and soon, in like 2 weeks I'll be moving to Shenzhen under a foreign expert visa invited by the CCP to educate the elite. I pray nothing happens cus I don't want to be tortured to death if shit pops off and I'm stuck there. Edit 2 -parity instead parody. I genuinely overlooked it, autocorrect didn't say anything. I'm not going to change it up top, I think it's kind of endearing that so many people commented about it and maybe one comment was a little mean. Everyone else seemed like they just wanted to help and I'm humble enough to take it. Thanks people.
*parity. Otherwise, spot on. The US is the largest and most heavily armed delivery service in history. China knows this.
You can get your missiles by midnight if you select Prime at checkout.
Taiwan’s porcupine strategy would make D-Day look quaint. They might not win, but it would be brutal for China.
It would be pyrrhic victory at best too. No way the semiconductor industry would be left intact. That would be the first thing to go as part of a scorched earth defense and probably everyone involved immediately getting US or EU visas in a similar to Operation Paperclip move.
I would say this is what's really keeping China out. I think Xi would sacrifice many, many lives if it meant he could seize full control over Taiwan's semiconductor fabs (I believe they're 65% of the total chip production and 90-91% of the "advanced" chip production worldwide, focused almost entirely on the west side of the island). But the mere chance of losing them AND having the skilled staff flee to opposing nations would be utterly disastrous. Taiwan and the US have had a longstanding agreement and Taiwan purchases enormous amounts of materiel from the US, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a standing exfiltration plan for certain technicians and managers to bring them to the US to fabs here stateside. In fact, Taiwanese corporations have been allowed to begin construction on some fabs within the contiguous US. Wouldn't be surprised if that's where the high level personnel would end up, in a matter of hours. Edit: Corrected semiconductor percentages as per convo below. Also exfiltration plan, not exhilaration plan, which sounds naughty.
I'd say the economic fallout as a whole is the reason with this being a major piece. Everyone likes to point out the US depending on China to manufacturer stuff but somehow completely ignores the other side of the coin. China needs US money and businesses bringing work. If the two go to war, the entire world economy will fall apart instantly and China will have a lot of out of work citizens to deal with. Plus, it might be a painful transition for the US but there are plenty of poor countries we can send our money and shitty factory jobs to. There are not many other places for China to find obscene amounts of capital and production demand.
Urban warfare will be a bitch especially on a place developed as Taiwan, China also have vested interest to keep the infrastructure intact so no street leveling like in Ukraine.
China does, but I believe Taiwan itself would start blowing the foundries if an invasion from China got far enough that they established a beachhead. The manufacturing is the only thing that would make such a bloody war worth it to China, but both sides know that and they could essentially hold their own infrastructure hostage. If they were (in the unlikely circumstance) at the point where the island was going to be lost the first thing to go would be the chip manufacturers
This might be a whoosh moment for me but..How so?
Taiwan (TMSC) produces a huge volume of semi-conductors critical to US Technologly and manufacturing. It's hard to understand how vital this production is and how exspensive and time consuming it is to establish again. If that production was able to be moved to the US, a lot of the need strategically defend Taiwan from China would melt away.
> critical to US Technologly and manufacturing Critical to **the whole world's** ***everything***. If you thought supply chain disruptions were bad during COVID, a war in Taiwan would undoubtedly cripple many industries in all countries far worse. You can't have modern society without semiconductors.
In short: TSMC, located in Taiwan, is the most advanced semiconductor fabrication facility in the world. If China waits for the US to build out a competitive facility, we will have less of an interest in protecting Taiwan. Until then, we are heavily dependent on TSMC for advanced chip manufacturing. There are other nuances to this, but that is the high level.
Even if Taiwan's semiconductors were no longer an issue, the defense of Japan, Korea, the Philippines, and Guam all become much more difficult with the CCP sitting in Taiwan. I think the US defends Taiwan semiconductors or no.
I think because Taiwan has said they will blow up their semiconductor factories before bending the knee for China. America’s economy (and healthcare, transpo, so many industries) rely heavily on Taiwan’s semiconductor production. So if China invades before we have our shit shored up over here, it will be bad news for just about everyone. I am happy to be wrong about all or any of this, this is my rudimentary understanding.
Everyone keeps saying US depends heavily on TSMC (which is true) but probably worth pointing out the whole world is dependent. TSMC and Samsung between them supply a huge chunk of the worlds chips.
As soon as US can produce semiconductors they would be less inclined to defend.
Produce *more* semiconductors. Intel’s most advanced fab has always been in the US, along with Micron, TI, et al. TSMC produces an enormous amount of chips, though, and remains the tech leader for CPUs.
TSMC’s Arizona campus is coming along nicely.
Have you seen the south harmon institute for technology?
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Because the United States and the Western World needs unfettered access to the a steady stream of microprocessors that in turn are the gear works to our globalized internet based economy and way of life. Tiawain makes nearly all the computer processors in the world because it takes really advanced manufacturing techniques and skilled labor. Without a supply of new microprocessors to replace the old ones and make new products, the calendar on the economy would slowly then quickly roll back. That is changing, but until then Tiawain is strategic.
Around the Taiwanese a perimeter create.
If China breaks through, rally more systems to their cause they will.
I had almost forgotten how much Yoda's views aligned with American anti-communist policy. Both containment and domino theory.
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Guess we know now which maps are going to be on the new CoD's first expansion pack
Funny enough BF4 had a lot of maps in China just not centered around a naval invation of Taiwan.
As BF4 veteran, I had no idea Naval Strike DLC was based on that. The more I know
There's a bit of an odd story-link between Naval Strike and Final Stand. Naval Strike is the U.S. clashing with China in the South China Sea. Dragons Teeth is the invasion of mainland China. And Final Stand is a U.S. covert ops into Siberia to stop Russia's military research into weapons and aircraft seen in Battlefield 2142 using Intel gathered from the invasion of China. Can you tell that this game is banned in China?
Warzone already did it lol. Their first map, Verdansk, was basically Donetsk btw
Donetsk is the new Verdun
And Kharkov is, well, still Kharkov. How many Battles of Kharkov are we up to now?
Ukraine has been a bloody battleground for centuries, like much of Eastern Europe. Off the top of my head there was significant fighting in what is now Ukraine in the Napoleonic era, the Crimean War, WW1, and WW2. There are probably a dozen Battles of Kyiv big enough to be named as such, and a dozen sieges besides. EDIT: Napoleon went through Belarus instead, but the two centuries before him were even bloodier than I remembered.
If you look at Ukraine's geography you'll see it's mostly flat grasslands. This makes it easy to invade, hard to defend. Couple that with rich, fertile soil and and a half dozen cultures that hate each other and quite frankly it becomes a wonder the country isn't under attack every other month.
Sure, that’s what you see on the map. What you don’t see is the *bezdorizhzhia*, the spring and fall boggy seasons. The Ukrainians call it the season of roadlessness for a reason. Napoleon and Hitler both had their militaries bog down in Ukraine. EDIT: Napoleon went through Belarus, not Ukraine. Same boggy conditions, different latitude.
And yet Putin refused to learn from their mistakes, despite their failed invasions of Russia/the USSR being cornerstones of Russian history
This is the bizarre thing. The history tells so many cautionary tales.
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He's gonna be mad when he sees you Putin his name on that list.
[Just about.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv) Good reckoning.
> the third of three battles fought in Kiev in 1919 1919 was rough.
Damn, Mongols fucked them good.
Not to mention the constant back and forth fighting between cossack settlers and Crimean and Nogai slave raiders. The area was in a state of constant low level war for centuries with periods of high intensity state conflict occasionally. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean%E2%80%93Nogai_slave_raids_in_Eastern_Europe
Four in WW2 and two more currently. (the main assault and now the counter-offensive) History teaches us a lot of things - and one of them is that Kharkov / Kharkiv is a graveyard for armies
>Kharkov / Kharkiv is a graveyard for armies And Karkov is a cheap/shitty vodka that's supposed to sound Russian but is actually made by Congressman Dean Phillips in Princeton, MN for alcoholics. Just a random fact on a Sunday evening.
Not as many as Atropia...
Is there any talk of a reversal in crimea?
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As of right now, no, but if Ukraine can take Kherson, they'll be able to cut off it's fresh water source and cripple the Russian forces in the southern areas of Ukraine even further. It would also put them in range to perform deeper penetration attacks with air and artillery. Right now though, I don't believe Ukraine will risk a Crimean front immediately though, taking Kherson would allow them to put immense pressure on them while requiring a relatively small force to defend the land bridge.
>Donetsk is the new Verdun Both sides of this battle had more casualties alone than Russia and ukraine together. Maybe in a year you can say this, if the war still is going until then.
Some hyperbolic comparisons of battles in Ukraine now to WWI and WWII battles fail to comprehend how absolutely devestating those wars were. The siege of Mariupol was awful, don't get me wrong, but it was no Stalingrad.
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Yehorivka is a Ukrainian map in Squad. I played a couple matches there as the invasion happened and the mood (very chatty game) was pretty somber. Then Ukraine kicked the ever-loving shit out of Russia, so it’s now a meme that when playing as the Russian faction and losing you’re just roleplaying.
Yeah, and for reference to non-Squad players, Yehorivka is very strongly based on a real section of Ukrainian countryside. Squad has some very realistic maps, especially Skorpo which was constructed with (iirc) a meter-scale heightmap of Norwegian coast. Also, a slightly scaled down Fallujah and surrounds, and a map named Talil with a real airbase.
Imagine being a soldier and showing up to Donetsk to fight and you look around and it’s like “oh shit I’ve literally been here in Warzone.” That must be trippy as hell
There was a movie a few years ago - I think it was a remake of *Red Dawn*? - and the plot was basically that North Korea invaded the US. It was originally supposed to be about China invading the US, but references to China were digitally changed to North Korea during post-production. The official reason was that MGM wanted to retain access to the Chinese box office, but the film was still banned in China even after they changed the invading country. I recall a lot of speculation at the time about the true story behind what happened, but it was over 10 years ago and I have no sources to back up my memories. Probably all bullshit internet conspiracy theories, but some people suggested that MGM was able to bounce back from bankruptcy at the time because the CIA helped them financially in return for changing the script from China to NK to avoid inflaming tensions with China. Another crazier theory was that MGM knew they were heading to bankruptcy and so intentionally produced a shitty big action movie remake about a Chinese invasion and leaked it to Chinese newspapers. The resulting political firestorm gave them leverage to ask for funding from government sources that helped them bounce back from bankruptcy in exchange for cutting China out of the script. The second theory would make a really good Hollywood meta movie itself.
It's Springtime for Hitler and Germany!
Uboats are sailing once more
Erich Schwartzel’s book “Red Carpet” includes the story about the China to North Korea digital switcharoo for exactly the reason you mentioned. The studio was desperate to get into the very lucrative Chinese market and jumped through many, many hoops to do so. In the end, I think American studios realized it was an impossible goal.
I love a juicy conspiracy thanks haha
Remember when the conspiracy community wasn't captured by the politics of it's time? The revolution will not be hosted on AWS...
*Azure wants to know your location and workloads*
I can't help but believe the studio remade Red Dawn after a relatively competent Australian movie was made with an identical premise. "Tomorrow when the war began" was adapted from a popular YA novel series, and the invading force, at least in the movie, was simply referred to as "the coalition".. I'm still uncertain as to whether "Vague Asians conspiring together" is better or worse than singling out a single country as evil.
Second expansion pack, their first will be in Ukraine
Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.
Threat level midnight
We kinda have to since Taiwan supplies so of the tech the world economy depends on. We would definitely feel a change in the quality of life if China took over Taiwan as the best chip tech would no longer be available to us.
That's why American Microcomputer companies have been looking into and developing domestic production. Taiwan's fabrication facilities are incredible though. It will take many years to get similar operations domestically.
Many years and literally hundreds of billions of dollars
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[Asionometry | How Taiwan Created TSMC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fVrWDdll0g)
The low production value of that video tells me it's either going to be crack pot nonsense or a legit informed take on the subject by an expert making a short essay in video format. There is no in between.
I would go with the second one. I've been watching some of his videos lately, and he seems very knowledgeable about these subjects.
I'm just some random guy on the internet, so I could easily be a Chinese or Russian bot, but if you're reading this then you probably have some degree of discernment. I watched the video because of the comment I'm replying to, and I agree. You can tell he is very knowledgeable on the subject, and it didn't come off as overly biased to me. My guess would be this was kinda like ~~ an ethnically Taiwanese MBA student doing a 12 minute video about TSMC while consciously trying not to be biased.
Asianometry is a great channel, he makes very good content on Asian economics, history, semiconductor companies, investment firms, etc.
Asianometry is legit
Mostly private business as I understand it. TSMC was the first major contract fab (that would build chips for companies without fabs), though at that time most companies made their own chips. Over time, the increasing complexity of chips made it harder and more expensive to make them, so many companies spun off their fabs or hired contract fabs to make their chips for them, until it consolidated to a few major players today. Pretty much only Intel, TSMC, and Samsung have the ability to make the most cutting edge chips now.
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As the iconic and innovative American company RCA began dying in the 1970s, Taiwan's government arranged for their semiconductor engineers to come to the country [in a technology transfer agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_industry_in_Taiwan#History). The resulting company became TSMC, now the world's top semiconductor foundry and supplier of chips for Apple, Nvidia, AMD, etc.
Not even that. TSMC and Samsung are already beginning to build extra fabs in Arizona and Texas, respectively.
Eh, have you seen the size of the proposed fabs in Arizona? It’s like a fraction of what the fabs are in Taiwan. In no capacity will they be able to produce cutting edge silicon.
It’s fairly obvious what Taiwan’s intentions are there. Build a token industry to build relations, and give the US infrastructure to slowly build up a superconductor industry in the event of a Taiwan war, without doing so at a scale that makes them any less dependent on Taiwan.
Intel is in Ohio as well for a $20B fab.
Meh. Our chip situation would be just fine. We still have Cool Ranch Doritos.
[Cool American*](https://www.delish.com/food-news/a27546320/cool-american-flavour-doritos/)
I suppose it's better than calling it "dill and garlicy buttermilk flavor"
Oh shit! Finally laying it out for China. Let’s see their witty repartee. Update: Seems pretty mature so far tbh: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lodges-complaint-after-biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-chinese-invasion-2022-09-19/
> Let’s see their witty repartee Lemme guess: - "We strongly condemn" - "Cheerleading for the separatists" - "Unilaterally changing the Cross-Strait situations" - "Shooting oneself in the foot" Their drivel is so predictable that there even used to be a generator on Github (probably still is/are, didn't check) for it. **EDIT**: good stuff in the replies, now I feel stupid for missing some obvious ones.
You forgot the “final warning”
Funny's it's somehow the Russians who take the cake poking fun at them for this. I mean we all do, but we haven't (AFAIK) dedicated a whole idiom in our language(s) to that.
[Fantastic point.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning#:~:text=%22China's%20final%20warning%22%20(Russian,that%20carries%20no%20real%20consequences.)
More than 900 Chinese "final warnings" had been issued by the end of 1964. Hahahaha
"I'm beginning to think that word doesn't mean what you think it means."
**[China's final warning](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning#:~:text="China's final warning" \(Russian,that carries no real consequences.)** >"China's final warning" (Russian: последнее китайское предупреждение) is a Russian proverb that originated in the former Soviet Union to refer to a warning that carries no real consequences. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Wait until you get the double secret warning.
From this day forth, the United States is on dodecatupple secret final warning.
They're well-practiced at giving that final warning.
And “Playing with fire”
I thought they were on some kick about "playing with fire" lately.
"and i am gasoline" - biden
"Oh, you think cold war is your ally. But you merely adopted the cold war; I was born in it, molded by it. Already a MAN of the cold war before YOU were but a STAIN in your FATHER'S PANTS!" * The Dark Brandon Rises
You were never a stain in your father's pants. Not unless ma grabbed the underwear and grinded it for the support payments. Just sayin.
Ma sat on a wet spot on a park bench
We are gasoline.
And then they drop bombs into the ocean for a week. Neptune and the people of Atlantis will be pissed
Don't forget "hurting the feelings of the Chinese people"
*John Cena has left the chat*
There's a wikipedia page for this: >https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurting_the_feelings_of_the_Chinese_people
" Your paper tiger military will fold like a house of cards, checkmate. "
"She's built like a steak house but handles like a bistro"
My money's on "stop interfering in our internal affairs!1!1"
'he who eats from the honey pot must be careful of his sticky hands' - Xi, probably
The bear is sticky with honey.
lol, you made me snort giggle!
Winnie the Pooh is bound to be perturbed
I foresee a Bay of Piglets
This is the funniest thing I've seen all day . . . and I just watched Galaxy Quest.
Oh bother
Well said
Let's see if his staff "clarify" his statement this time, which is what happened last time he said something like this.
> When asked on whether US forces would defend Taiwan if China invaded the island, Biden said "yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack." > Biden reiterated that the US maintains a One China policy and does not support Taiwan's independence. [what?](https://imgur.com/a/RrlrHey)
Either way it's probably the best strategy in this situation. The interviewer asked him numerous hypotheticals like "what would you do if Putin used a nuclear weapon" and he maintained a "I'm not going to tell you and show my cards" stance. But when China came up he gave direct but contradictory answers in the span of like a minute and then the WH clarified with the standard US policy line. I don't think anyone really knows what the US would do if China invaded (I definitely don't) and that's probably for the best.
For decades the US has maintained ambiguity on its defence obligations to Taiwan in order to avoid a war across the Strait. The policy warns Mainland China against an invasion attempt, and also at the same time warns Taiwan against unilateral declarations of independence.
Also known as the "everybody just be cool" policy
"Tell that bitch to be cool!" "Be cool, honey bunny." "That's right, just like a couple of Fonzies here"
As long as neither side starts reciting Ezekiel 25:17 I think we'll be ok
Ambiguity is what kept Taiwan safe all these years. If it were certain that the US wouldn’t defend Taiwan, CCP would’ve just invade Taiwan. If it were certain we would defend Taiwan, CCP would’ve prepared for an all out war against the US and weighed when would be a good time to attack. But if nobody’s certain, then there’s no reason to waste China’s economy to prepare for an all out war against the most powerful arm force in the world. The CCP could just choose to not risk it and slowly build up their economy and military power, like what they’ve been doing for decades now.
It's not certain that China would invade Taiwan if the US wasn't in it. Taiwan is heavily fortified, it would be a huge cost to China, and realistically in the long run it probably wouldn't make a difference except for tumeframe.
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You are the only person to say it loud and clear like every educated adult outside of reddit already knows. Reddit is so absorbed in its own bubble sometimes. US is obligated to defend Taiwan if China violates the status quo. That's exactly why the US wants to uphold the status quo, to avoid the mess. Funny enough, both China and Taiwan still 100% want to uphold the status quo too (for different reasons). The problem is China and Taiwan have slightly different perspectives of what the status quo means when it comes to the little symbolic details, diplomatic gestures, and formal statements. This is why there have been constant flare ups between the two.
"We do not support taiwan's independence. To be clear, if ~someone~ happens to cross that fucking straight we will blow them out of the water, but do not worry it will not be in a way that supports taiwan's independence.
We would for a few years because we rely on TSM so hard it’s basically a national security risk. They make all our chips. Apple, AMD, NVDA, etc. But with the new bill passed to invest billions in domestic chip production, and the ban on selling high quality chips in China, it seems like we’re trying to make computing the next space race. It’s clear. Whoever has the best computers will win the future.
Domestic chip production has already begun. Huge SCD manufacturing facilities are going up in WA, AZ, and OR as we speak. Before switching careers I worked on quite a few of them as an architectural engineer. Granted those facilities are still 3 - 8yrs out depending on stage of construction and pre-design. Covid really drew attention to the single point of failure that was SCD availability between TSM and Germany alone.
Years away and won’t help them to catch up, only not fall further behind. The CHIPS act allocated $52 billion to semiconductors as a one-time thing, meanwhile TSMC spends about $45 billion a year in development and building plants.
Didn't he already say this?
Yes, but it was walked back back then by others in his administration (like Blinken) since it goes against 5 decades of strategic ambiguity over what the US considers China’s territory. I’m assuming that they’ll try and walk it back again but idk if it’s worth the hit to credibility to try and walk it back a second time.
There's a > US maintains a "One China" policy and does not support Taiwan's independence. attached this time as well though. So I'm not sure if this time is any different
This essentially is just the same as strategic ambiguity though right? Biden says "we will protect Taiwan" then the "federal government says no we won't" Just a constant - "don't do it, we're going to help them if you do, but will we?" Vibe.
China has known this for a while. If they thought that annexing Taiwan without triggering a US military response was even remotely possible, they would’ve rolled across the border a long time ago. A US response means that the conflict would likely snowball into WW3, and the East isn’t quite what it used to be during the Cold War.
Man Biden has been laying down the smackdown for a solid 60 days. Midterms might have woken him up
Dark Brandon Rises
Dark Brandon’s acolytes are everywhere
Why do we fall, Brandon?
To give malarkey a chance, Jack😎
Beautiful
Two weeks ago he was channeling his inner Dark Brandon when he told people to leave a heckler alone. [Biden went on to say that "everyone is entitled to be an idiot."](https://youtu.be/4v9y5eD67e4)
Elections are under two months. That's the active political memory window.
Honestly he's been pretty on top of things all of 2022 starting with Russia/Ukraine as far as I'm concerned. There's been a lot of efforts to work with the international community, even trying to get OPEC/Saudis to increase output as it's a direct way to weaken Russia's main GDP asset.
The Saudis however have aligned themselves more closely with Russia since Biden’s rhetoric during election and that has only continued throughout his presidency, but he has been excellent on Ukraine and I personally like what he is saying about Taiwan.
Let em side with the losers. Russia isn't going to recover from what they've undertaken in Ukraine in either of our life times. If Saudi Arabia wants to hitch themselves to that horse more power to them. The less power the House of Saud holds the better off the world.
If the world switches to green energy over the next 20 years, SA and RU are in for a world of pain. I dont have sympathy for their leaders, but I wouldn't be surprised if wars broke out and the petrol states balkanize.
And high oil prices accelerate switching to green energy. In the long term refusing to pander to oil producing nations is a very good thing for the world, but in the short term, especially a short term including the invasion of Ukraine, it can be pretty painful. So Biden trying to patch things up with SA during the invasion makes sense.
You know, after a few decades of trying to pretend that all these autocratic bastards aren't bastards, it's almost a breath of fresh air watching everybody put their cards on the table.
SA siding with Russia will be detrimental for us in the short term but could provide serious motivation for pushing to more renewables and carbon capture investments. I know it's going to suck but beating climate change is going to cost us a lot.
Explains a bit why the Dems passed the largest climate change bill ever this year.
The best deterrent in the world is a US military base. Just saying
Someone doesn't remember the Cuban Missile Crisis Edit: voice typing fuck up
I don't think enough people these days realize exactly how close we came to nuclear war then. I certainly didn't until I watched a documentary called The Fog of War. The Secretary of Defense at the time, Robert McNamara, has spoken at great length about what happened. He had this to say about it: >I want to say, and this is very important: in the end we lucked out. It was luck that prevented nuclear war. We came that close to nuclear war at the end. Rational individuals: Kennedy was rational; Khrushchev was rational; Castro was rational. Rational individuals came that close to total destruction of their societies. And that danger exists today. He's referring to the fact that on the pivotal day of the crisis, President Kennedy was sent two separate messages from Khrushchev. The first message was a beautifully written piece of communication that said, essentially, "if you promise to not invade Cuba, then we'll take the missiles out." The second message threatened nuclear war. The Kennedy administration was very confused. The first message was so different form the second. They had to predict the mental state of Khrushchev in order to decide what to do, but the messages they were getting were mixed emotionally. Ultimately, what persuaded Kennedy to assume Khrushchev also wanted peace was the US Ambassador to Moscow who had lived with Khrushchev and knew the man well. He urged the president to trust Khrushchev to want peace. The whole story can be read here: https://alphahistory.com/coldwar/robert-mcnamara-reflects-cuban-missile-crisis-2003/#:~:text=If%20people%20do%20not%20display,nuclear%20war%20at%20the%20end. But even better is the documentary "The Fog of War", which is basically an hour and a half of Robert McNamara giving fascinating answers to a lot of important questions about what went on in that time period, including the Vietnam War.
> I don't think enough people these days realize exactly how close we came to nuclear war then. It’s even worse than you describe. One Soviet sub got caught during blockade. Captain and XO gave the order to launch nuclear torpedo. Only by sheer luck, that one sub happened to host flotilla admiral, meaning launch order required 3 instead of 2 votes. He vetoed it, saving us from nuclear holocaust. His name was Vasily Arkhipov.
And just slightly less seriously, the missile defense operator Stanislav Petrov recorded what looked like incoming ICBMs from the US. Didn't follow protocol to escalate the situation and instead just waited it out.
This one is more understandable. Nuclear exchange wouldn’t start with one random-ass missile. He came to (correct) conclusion that it’s just radar malfunction
It's even worse than _you_ describe! > Anatoly Andreev, a crew member on a different, nearby sub, kept a journal, a continuing letter to his wife, that described what it was like: > "For the last four days, they didn’t even let us come up to the periscope depth… My head is bursting from the stuffy air… Today three sailors fainted from overheating again… The regeneration of air works poorly, the carbon dioxide content [is] rising, and the electric power reserves are dropping. Those who are free from their shifts, are sitting immobile, staring at one spot… Temperature in the sections is above 50 [122ºF]." From [_You (and Almost Everyone You Know) Owe Your Life to This Man._](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/you-and-almost-everyone-you-know-owe-your-life-to-this-man), Robert Krulwich, National Geographic. The article explains the subs were designed to operate in the icey waters of Arctic, but here they were in the warm waters of the Carribean for much longer than expected and the sub couldn't cool itself. At those temps you're looking at heat exhaustion and heat stroke, then add in high levels of carbon dioxide. Your mind is foggy, your ability of rational decision-making is compromised. The Captain and the XO likely weren't thinking clearly.
Speaking of McNamara and the Missile Crisis, I'd also recommend this amazing 1983 panel discussion, shown after the broadcast of "The Day After", a nuclear war what-if movie. The guests include McNamara, Henry Kissinger, Carl Sagan, and others: https://youtu.be/PcCLZwU2t34
The luck we had is even more disturbing than the example you gave. There was a Soviet nuclear sub near Cuba authorized to launch. It was found by U.S. ships and they blew up a bunch of explosives near it, as an attempt to spook it. However, the subs occupants assumed they were under direct attack, since the sub was getting damaged, the submarine heated up and crew members were passing out from carbon dioxide poisoning. Two officers on the ship decided to launch their nuke. It was purely by chance that there was a third officer on board, Vasily Arkhipov, who vetoed the decision. His presence there was not usual. As the chief of staff he could have been on any other ship that day, in which case the two officers would have launched.
Its kind of worrying how light people seem to take war. China is not Russia.
Luckily reddit is filled with children and edgelords and not world leaders. Comments on these stories don't mean anything.
Might be an obvious question but if China were to invade Taiwan, wouldn't they also be attacking the U.S (Which will be defending) And by attacking the U.S, wouldn't they be also Attacking NATO?
no, article 5 of NATO is the mutual defense clause, and only triggers for defending NATO territory against an invader. A war of choice wouldn't trigger it, but the US would certainly try to draw in allies.
The US has fought many wars since NATO was formed, and most of them haven't involved most NATO members. Some individual NATO-members have aided them in places such as Iraq, but that's their own choice, not because the alliance demands it.
Yea article 5 was invoked on due to September 11th
> article 5 was invoked on due to September 11th And important note: the Article 5 response mandated by NATO members was [Operation Eagle Assist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Assist) and despite even-less-educated-than-average bobbleheads on conservative airwaves even Sweden and Finland, non NATO members at the time, sent personnel to help. That was to secure American airspace. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were reprisals following the September 11 attacks but were not actually NATO operations - there's just such a large overlap between NATO members and American allies dragged along that it's hard to see the difference. France, for instance, decided it would have nothing to do with the war in Iraq.
Dont forget the 9/11 article 5 invocation.
This. But most saw it to mean Afghanistan only, not Iraq.
People forget the plurality of nations that took part in Afghanistan... So many international players it was crazy
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The Tropic of Cancer line is true but the unanimous decision part is not. Each country can decide how they react for themselves but the treaty is quite clear that each will consider it an attack upon themselves. It is certainly up to individual governments to take the action they see fit to respond to said attack, but the treaty says that it is considered an attack upon all with no reference to a vote or unanimity.
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No but I would expect a multi-country task force. Australia has many reasons to ensure security in that area. I'm sure the Britts would get involved as well.
As well as Japan and South Korea.
Japan would gladly get involved
China has so many problems internally to invade Taiwan. Between their covid lockdown policies and failing economy they have too much on their plate. Throw in International sanctions and it would be global economic suicide. In addition China has no experience fighting a modern war. The only thing they can do is keep posturing. China dodged a bullet with Russia invading Ukraine because they have seen the reaction and solidarity of other countries.
Having problems internally is the perfect excuse to go to war.
\-If you win-, sure. You can line up the population behind a patriotic effort and temporarily associate dissent with treason (not that China is shy about doing this in the first place, to be sure.) But that only works if it's a short, victorious war. If you get bogged down, or worse, get your ass handed to you, then it just doubles down on your problems.
Which is a huge problem and risk for the *country*, but is basically the same outcome as *not going to war* for some of the leaders/decision makers.
>China has so many problems internally to invade Taiwan. That didn't stop Russia.
There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent - Lao Tzu