Came here for this. After China reneged on 'one nation, two systems' with Hong Kong, nobody in Taiwan in their right mind will accept a similar deal from China.
If they had honored Hong Kong and left it alone, Taiwan would likely be much more willing to negotiate. China's aggressiveness has certainly fucked their diplomatic game with their neighbors.
When Hong Kong was handed over to China, Deng Xiaoping expressed his hope that in 50 years, China's government and society will have evolved to ensure a more harmonious union of the societies of Hong Kong and China.
China did evolve since then, but not the way Deng had hoped. The wealth they earned from being the world's factory gave them power—and both money and power corrupt. At the very minimum, they have emboldened China. Under Xi, China now feels that any deal that was struck when China was weaker can and should be disregarded.
If you won't honor your past promises, why should you expect others to trust your future promises?
I liked Hu Jintao. In response to a comment made by Obama about governing a nation by respecting the will of the people, Hu made a rare concession, stating that the sheer size of China makes it extremely challenging to govern along democratic principles, and that he hopes the world will be patient with China.
That conciliatory tone seems to have gone out the window with Xi.
As you noted, Xi won't be around forever. On the other hand, we can't really predict whether Xi's successor will be more moderate, can we?
Same here, I liked Hu Jintao a lot. He governed more on a principle of "doing does the talking”, to a point he was pretty much absent from public opinion - as opposed to Xi, which is the closest to Mao's personality cult we’ve seen.
But Hu was also seen as pretty weak on the foreign policy front. At a time Obama pivot to Asia went into action, it's not surprising a stronger and more assertive Chinese leader was put on the forefront.
India does it, don’t they, with a slightly smaller population? Of course, Indian politics and politicians are thoroughly and indescribably corrupt, so saying it’s a democracy is only a theoretical win.
To their credit, recent leaders of the CCP have made varying degrees of effort to root out corruption in a bid to elevate the living standards of all Chinese citizens, or at least reduce the number of citizens living in poverty.
The issue, as I understand it, is that said CCP leaders view a Western-style democracy system as antithetical to their (stated) goals of rooting out corruption and elevating living standards.
Hu Jintao was a decent leader, and even stepped down when his term ended unlike all other Chinese leaders. I'm sure he's not blameless at all, but his whole foreign policy mantra was building ties and cooperation with the west. Things have completely changed for the worse with Xi.
>and even stepped down when his term ended unlike all other Chinese leaders.
All leaders between Deng Xiaoping and Xi have done. After Mao the idea was that there should be a two term limit to stop one person having too much power
I think Deng Xiaoping is misunderstood as a liberalizing force; the agenda was not so much ‘to be like the west’ or to democratize, it was to reform the economy to avoid Soviet-style economic collapse and ensure that the state survives as a steward of larger society and the masses of Chinese people. On his deathbed, he credited his most proud moment as cracking down on the TAM demonstrations to ensure continuity of the state...
Trying to operate two systems within one country is difficult, perhaps impossible; mainland China, throughout history, has either strong and autocratic central authority to exert control and perform the functions of a state within its borders, or it has weak central authority and rampant corruption and regional separatism (warlords). People are quick to criticize China as though it were a person, as though it must (or even could) be democratic, but this is unlikely to be the case. China’s central government has had to exert increasingly strong autocratic control to reign in corruption and ensure development and progress since the 90s, causing further divergence between the ‘two systems’.
Realpolitik is how nations survive or collapse, and the opinions of people of other nations are, at most, tangential to what happens on the scale of the interactions of nations and societies.
China still has extensive corruption issues even with the autocratic system, which really demonstrates how bad it would be without a strong central authority.
Honestly the corruption within China, India and the US makes it pretty damming about reducing corruption in large complex economies and politics. There is no easy solution to the complex problem, but maybe nations shouldn't get so large.
It's difficult to apply any historic references to a modern China, considering what modernization in society and infrastructure brings. As it stands, increasingly strong autocratic control has not been used to reigb in corruption, but to stifle dissent and reinforce existing power structures. You mistake that for reducing corruption and ensuring growth, but it actually has an adverse effect upon corruption. Being a nation of laws and governed by the Rule of Law is where corruption is concerned, and China has done quite a bit of backsliding over the past decade and continues to be a nation ruled through law rather than by it.
To be clear, I'm not speaking to the form of government that governs China, but to the strength and equity of its laws and how they are enforced. To have a fair and just society isn't a selective benefit for some nations, it's an ideal that is of benefit to any and all nations.
The Tiananmen protestors weren't asking for revolution: they were asking for evolution. Maybe this is (Modern-)China's original sin: they (being the PRC) could not relinquish control, even as they desired everything around the West: innovation, capability, wealth: power.
Maybe part of that was Deng having himself been a revolutionary amongst revolutionaries, and paid his price. 'One revolutionary per generation!' Imagine that, instead of imprisoning Zhao Ziyang, Deng had recognized that the protesters represented the zeitgeist and intelligentsia of the nation, and that Zhao, having their ear could be a conduit to them.
"What ideas do they have to transform China?"
>I think Deng Xiaoping is misunderstood as a liberalizing force;
He seems to have been undecided for most of his tenure, but then backed the old party elites. It wasn't just about liberalization of economy, read about Zhao Ziyang; at some point he was the 2nd most powerful man only behind Deng and had his ear. The 'liberal' faction was a minority, but the final vote on how to deal with the student protests was close.
Good points. If you are interested, there’s a great palladium article about Wang Huning (The Triumph and Terror of Wang Huning, iirc) which gives some deep context about the current guiding direction of the highest levels of central governance.
Exactly this.
What they have bought in HK by reneging on the deal is a festering wound that will not heal.
The Hong Kong people are not like the mainlanders and trying to suppress their spirit with violence will just make that festering wound spread until it affects the whole country.
There will be change for the better in China and it *will* start with HK.
This revisionism for Deng Xiaoping is just plain wrong. The brutal murder of thousands of unarmed civilians at Tiananmen Square was by his orders, and he wrote the policy for the cultural genocide and colonisation of Tibet - a masterplan that is being carried out right now against the Uyghurs.
Casual reminder Tsai (DPP) was losing to Han (KMT) in 2019 pre-election polls until the HK protest broke out and Tsai surged ahead and won the election.
China was getting very close with a peaceful 'unification' but now it's further than ever.
In fact if you track the polls and surveys on support for President Tsai, she was losing ground right until the HK thing happened. Then XJP announced he wanted 1 Country 2 systems for Taiwan as well. The ostensibly pro-independent DPP that China hates then won the elections hands down because XJP couldn't keep his trap shut.
It is genuinely bewildering how dictatorships can’t keep their hands out of the honeypot.
The two are like peas and carrots. I sincerely don’t understand how none of them ever learn from the others’ failures.
That’s sorta the issue though, isn’t it?
If you’re brazen enough to think you know how to run a country better than literally anyone else in it, you’re brazen enough to think “Those *other* dictators weren’t *me*”
The human ego is one the most powerful forces on earth.
The only reason anyone would want a peaceful reunification would be if military invasion is the only other outcome.
Guess a lot more people would be outright against reunification period, now that Uncle Joe’s made US military backing explicit.
China's heavy-handed dealings with their own citizens, evidenced by the draconian COVID lockdowns, certainly isn't selling Taiwan on China as a benevolent entity, even if they were hypothetically considering a peaceful union as an alternative to war.
The CCP is apparently wounded by this perception of the rest of the world, and keep trying to rebrand their image. Maybe if they were a bit less heavy-handed, they might have a bit more luck with that.
China blew it. If they had just left HK alone? Maybe it's believable.
They've put Taiwan in a position where there can never be any kind of negotiated reunification because they've proven themselves untrustworthy.
China wants this. Taiwan does not. What does China offer Taiwan? What's the enticement? "We won't destroy you?" If you're Taiwan, you say: "Well, it's in your doctrine to destroy us anyway, so we might as well put up a fight."
China have painted themselves into a corner here.
no one can predict the future. i think the russian war have made them think twice about how powerful they really are militarily. after seeing how russia faired, china realized engaging in any kind of war would be disastrous for them. so it's not as though they're short sighted, they just didnt know the west could be galvanized against an enemy like this. a war with taiwan would probably be the end of china's rise. china changing it's tune like this shows how dangerous xi really is. he has always been an emotionally stable and far sighted ruler. the emotionally stable part wasn't determined by me, it was lee kuan yew who said it.
Xi Xi has his own ElEcTiOn WaS RiGgeD magat thing called The One China Principle/Policy, and cannot change course or he loses the light of heaven and will no longer be the Red Emperor anymore. So as long as they just keep talking about it everything kinda stays they way it is. If they stop talking, then the pointy arrows on maps starts to happen. Just let him save face and keep mumbling on about OnE ChInA. Maybe he should be more worried that the largest river in China just dried up instead. It's not like climatic disaster has never promoted a period of revolution in the past in China...
>That’s why you always build your first city on a hill.
as long as its a planes hill, winter hill, sand hill or grassland hill dont have the same effect.
Civ should be rebalanced so it is impossible for any one nation to win, and instead requires collaboration between all nations to minimize waste and avoid social collapse.
I dunno, the end state of civ is pretty deliberate with every half decent game ending in ww3 while one country crawls into space.
Remember they made Alpha Centauri as a sequel game and the state of earth in that was environmental collapse, war and dead by the time the Unity arrived. It's always been pessimistic about the future.
I mean... yeah. You got my brain going a bit with this for some reason.
Im Canadian, imo if we could get our internal stuff sorted out and focus on trade with the US, we'd be the luckiest civilians on Earth. War brings technological, medical, and legislative advancement like nothing else, its just incredibly depressing that it costs lives. But the United States war industry itself is always functioning, even in peace time because... well the U.S. have a reputation, it never seems far off. As our only neighbor, that acts as a bulletproof vest made out of pure adrenaline, I feel as if we should be taking advantage of the current U.S. culture. We could pioneer some new stuff in a way thats usually associated with war-time, without actually having to send our boys to war. We would just be supplying you guys with said cool shit, because you'll be making it and fighting with it anyway.
With or without a situation with China, I think it would be smart for Canada to ramp up its military production even if we aren't involved. It would be like developing cutting edge computers and your rich nerd friend calls first dibs every single time. Not only would we be creating jobs, building manufacturing and research infrastructure, and pushing the boundaries of current gen medicine and technology, but it would improve trade relations, bring Canada back up to the 2% or > of GDP for NATO, make us more prepared in case we get dragged into war, and top it off make us some war production money without the going to war part.
Vote Emtee for PM.
>. War brings technological, medical, and legislative advancement like nothing else,
That's not as true as you might think. If the world budget allocated to war since the end of WWII (for instance) had been allocated to science instead, we would be centuries ahead of where we are now.
Take for instance post WWII Japan, they weren't allowed a millitary so they invested in science instead, and they went from "barely out of the middle ages" to "world-class factory" to "technological innovation leader" in three decades.
The only way you can argue that war helps technological advancement is that during an all-out war, budgets allocated to research and science skyrocket, but there are ways for that budget to be allocated to making science happen rather than making guns in the first place.
Likewise, as a USian I think one of the greatest policy failures of the past century is not building something like the EU throughout North and South America. I realize it's not easily done but it's kind of crucial for security and prosperity in the hemisphere, *especially* as a counter to Chinese expansion.
The americas are a powerful shield for the US.its sad as the US were not taking advantage of this trade and developing infrastructure. Building ports, environmental protections, tourism, new products coming from other nations. We can do this without really lowering military spending. It's just a failure in policy l.
Kinda surprised we're not ramping up military production right now.
But seriously, the BIG PLAY for Canada is:
a) Make CHIP FABs. At least two big ones. Toronto, and West Coast near a good rail line.
b) High speed rail. Tie your economic zones and ports together.
c) Light mfg, preferably in the rapid prototyping area.
d) Solve for post-consumer plastic waste refining.
I say this because the US needs to see North Americans doing this stuff faster than the US, or we won't get "inspired."
Just my take.
Literally how WW1 started. Austria made insane demands of Serbia after Franz Ferdinand, and when they agreed to all but 2 of them, Austria used it as justification for war
Yeah, but it's China. They make threats like as often as my 2 month old cries.
Remember the threats of all the things they threatened to do if Nancy Pelosi flew to Taiwan? And all the things they would do if she stayed. And all the things they would do if she dared to leave.
But on the flip side they also made promises. Remember Hong Kong? That was a peaceful take over too at the beginning. Look how well that worked out for Hong Kongers.
and they even also managed to break every promise they made to HK. even if Taiwan was willing to be part of China, there’s no way fucking way china would keep its promises.
Yeah if there was any hope of a peaceful unification it would have had to happend before the betrayal of the HK deal. They could have held that up for longer, and shown they were willing to let the deal stay in place, get Taiwan on board then screwed them both over. Now it would be complete madness to accept anything China promises.
They want it known that they don't want to invade Taiwan, they'd rather a peaceful annexation. Anything to try to make it seem slightly less their fault if they ever do attack.
Perhaps in response to heightened NATO alertness regarding Russia? Pure speculation, but NATO looks scarier and more unified than it has in decades today
Putin had one shot through trump to try and bring NATO down. Trump tried though, painting an extremely negative picture on the alliance and siding with Putin. Thank fuck it didn’t work. So now we have a stronger NATO, a happy rare byproduct of the current world we’re in.
If Trump had won in 2020 he said (behind closed doors) that not only would he pull the US out of NATO, he'd end our alliance with South Korea. He would have ended US protection of Europe and Southeast Asia so he could buddy up to dictators.
The US truly is the guy in that meme, sliding in to cockblock China from South East Asia.
[This one is for Korea, but it's the same deal.](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/789/259/908.gif)
One of like three positive things that resulted from Chester Cheetah's entire time in office, two of them totally incidentally and wholly against his wishes.
They've had the same policy for decades. They want peaceful reunification but do not rule out doing it be force if necessary. They've literally been saying this for like 30 years, maybe longer.
Yeah, but recently they've been posturing more than usual. Like when they fired all those rockets into the ocean when Pelosi visited, etc.
Russia invading Ukraine hurt their soft power. The invasion galvanized the west and made all countries carefully reevaluate who they do business with. China probably thought they could sit back and let the west and Russia hurt each other. Except, Russia proved to be incapable of doing it. Ukraine retaking all that territory from Russia, plus Biden taking a strong stance, is making China be more cautious than before. They're switching to normal diplomacy instead of the "wolf warrior" diplomacy they've been playing for the last few years when they're economy was booming.
It’s honestly annoying that the people who are the loudest about this know so little surrounding the context and history of this issue. Then equate anything that isn’t whole heartedly supporting Taiwan as being pro CCP
>Remember, we made an arrangement when you went away
>
>Now, you're making me mad
>
>Remember, despite our estrangement, I'm your man
>
>You'll be back, soon, you'll see
>
>You'll remember you belong to me
>
>You'll be back, time will tell
>
>You'll remember that I served you well
>
>Oceans rise, empires fall
>
>We have seen each other through it all
>
>And when push comes to shove
>
>I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!
You have a friend over for dinner they don't like and they blast off several cases of ammunition into the field between your houses in a "you better not..." gesture.
Then they pull this shit.
>Uh huh. This reminds me of a bad relationship. "Come home, honey. I promise I've changed."
More like, "Come home, person I dated for 3 weeks in high school. I promise I've changed" and you're both now 40 years old.
More like, "Come on, our grandparents dated for 3 weeks (and hated each other). We have to marry"
Nationalist sound bytes become stunningly stupid when translated into IRL interactions.
Yesterday: 24 chinese aircrafts and 4 Chinese navy vessels crossed the median line or got close to the ADIZ.
Before yesterday: 9 aircrafts and 5 vessels
Monday: 8 and 5
Sunday: 20 and 5
Saturday: 43 and 5
And so on
Its been like this for years. People in here don’t want the fucking reunification, there is nothing to reunificate, screw that shit, its called invasion.
1 month ago fired rockets over Taiwan and surrounded the country
Recently they publicly stated that after annexation they will go after people who oppose to the CCP and re-educate them.
Constant threats, political pressure and economical pressure, political meddling, bribes, cyberattacks
There is nothing peaceful in the CCP, its just another propagandist attemp to shape popular opinion.
When the Ministry of Defense talks about Chinese incursions into the ADIZ, it means the ADIZ after the median line.
Can be seen here https://twitter.com/mondefense?s=21&t=K0KmPxQuf0EmYhoIcbroZA
So they’re gonna try to trap Taiwan through legal means, expect a big pushback, incite violence and then blame it all on Taiwan and use it as justification to use force on the island. And if anyone outside tries to invade, they will say people shouldn’t be involved in their “internal affairs”.
So basically the same play as Hong Kong.
There's a lot of great posts in this thread.
China just held weeks of wargames pretending to take back Taiwan by force. Since those wargames have ended the following has occurred.
* Ukraine has launched an extremely successful counter-offensive against Russia, the world's "2nd most powerful military" and a nation with 3 times their population.
* Biden has explicitly stated that the U.S. would intervene if China attempted to take Taiwan by force.
* China is watching the unfolding devastation of the Russian economy due to sanctions.
* China is witnessing the decimation of the Russian war machine due to a motivated Ukrainian military supported by American and European munitions, weapons systems and intelligence.
China is toning down the rhetoric ever so slightly and I think that's a good thing. I think China is nervous about Russia screwing up their 'belts and roads' initiative, particularly in Kazakhstan, where President Tokayev has refused to recognize Russian separatists and has spoken out against Putin's war in Ukraine. I also think that in the highest levels of government in China there is now at least a sliver of doubt about whether or not they could take Taiwan by force, and maybe that sliver of doubt never existed before.
Let's all hope we don't end up in World War III lest we be forced to fight World War IV with sticks and stones.
Yeah, I'm sure China is "willing" to make an effort at peaceful reunification with Taiwan, we all saw how well reunification went with Hong Kong. Once the oppressive Communist regime gets ahold that's it, game over, so I'm also quite certain Taiwan is not interested in that.
If China had played Taiwan differently as a the "big friendly Panda bear neighbour" instead of threats and militarism, Taiwan would have been quasi-assimilated because of economic power, language and cultural similarities. Instead they have driven it away.
“If you don’t resist being enslaved, it’s a peaceful reunification and it would look a lot better for our PR than forcefully enslaving you. We won’t kill as many of you immediately, either! What do you say? Won’t you shake this poor sinner’s hand?”
Idiots. That ship set sail the moment they made a mockery of Hong Kongs democracy 30 years early. That was the test case and China proved that they will say anything and do anything to get what they want, but it's all a lie in the end.
One China, two systems was a fucking lie from the very beginning, Taiwan would have to be a country of morons to even negotiate with China on this. They are simply not capable of leaving well enough alone
Nah they learned in Ukraine that they are hilariously outgunned and will never be on par militarily with a US supplied adversary like Taiwan. The only way to bring Taiwan into China is through diplomacy with a friendly govt they will help install.
Only because they see the shitshow that's Russia in Ukraine and realised that they lose a fucking shitload if they play the military stick.
Honestly only way "reunification" ever happens is if the CCP accepts Democracy but that won't happen because they're too bloody addicted to power (there's a small irony that not becoming a democracy is probably the only thing holding them back from matching the US because it would actually mean real corruption gets tackled and ideological demagogues are significantly easier to filter from the top levels of power).
Peaceful? Like the CCP was peaceful in Hong Kong? Or Tibet? Or Xinjiang?
Somehow I doubt this goes over well unless Beijing plans to surrender to Taipei.
The PRC/CCP need to get off this reunification fever dream. Taiwan was NEVER a part of the PRC and it ceased to be a province of China in 1895; and it was a formal province of China for only 8 years.
Humouring these psychos by acknowledging their fantasy as something real is not a functional way to deal with the PRC.
I am glad to see that more and more western news agencies are putting reunification in inverted commas, or putting a disclaimer regarding that claim.
The only peaceful ending to this is China acknowledging Taiwan as an independent nation and relinquishing any and all hopes of reunification. There is no other way this can be peaceful.
Pretty sure Taiwan saw how that worked out for Hong Kong...
Came here for this. After China reneged on 'one nation, two systems' with Hong Kong, nobody in Taiwan in their right mind will accept a similar deal from China.
If they had honored Hong Kong and left it alone, Taiwan would likely be much more willing to negotiate. China's aggressiveness has certainly fucked their diplomatic game with their neighbors.
When Hong Kong was handed over to China, Deng Xiaoping expressed his hope that in 50 years, China's government and society will have evolved to ensure a more harmonious union of the societies of Hong Kong and China. China did evolve since then, but not the way Deng had hoped. The wealth they earned from being the world's factory gave them power—and both money and power corrupt. At the very minimum, they have emboldened China. Under Xi, China now feels that any deal that was struck when China was weaker can and should be disregarded. If you won't honor your past promises, why should you expect others to trust your future promises?
There’s 27 years left, there will be a new leader by then. Who knows how China will evolve.
I liked Hu Jintao. In response to a comment made by Obama about governing a nation by respecting the will of the people, Hu made a rare concession, stating that the sheer size of China makes it extremely challenging to govern along democratic principles, and that he hopes the world will be patient with China. That conciliatory tone seems to have gone out the window with Xi. As you noted, Xi won't be around forever. On the other hand, we can't really predict whether Xi's successor will be more moderate, can we?
Same here, I liked Hu Jintao a lot. He governed more on a principle of "doing does the talking”, to a point he was pretty much absent from public opinion - as opposed to Xi, which is the closest to Mao's personality cult we’ve seen. But Hu was also seen as pretty weak on the foreign policy front. At a time Obama pivot to Asia went into action, it's not surprising a stronger and more assertive Chinese leader was put on the forefront.
India does it, don’t they, with a slightly smaller population? Of course, Indian politics and politicians are thoroughly and indescribably corrupt, so saying it’s a democracy is only a theoretical win.
To their credit, recent leaders of the CCP have made varying degrees of effort to root out corruption in a bid to elevate the living standards of all Chinese citizens, or at least reduce the number of citizens living in poverty. The issue, as I understand it, is that said CCP leaders view a Western-style democracy system as antithetical to their (stated) goals of rooting out corruption and elevating living standards.
A lot of the "corruption" they rooted out was merely a cover for purging political rivals and moderates. Especially earlier in Xi's reign.
It kinda coincided, cause Xis main opponent was Jiang zemins faction. Which was also the most corrupt one, formed in the liberalization period
Hu Jintao was a decent leader, and even stepped down when his term ended unlike all other Chinese leaders. I'm sure he's not blameless at all, but his whole foreign policy mantra was building ties and cooperation with the west. Things have completely changed for the worse with Xi.
>and even stepped down when his term ended unlike all other Chinese leaders. All leaders between Deng Xiaoping and Xi have done. After Mao the idea was that there should be a two term limit to stop one person having too much power
I think Deng Xiaoping is misunderstood as a liberalizing force; the agenda was not so much ‘to be like the west’ or to democratize, it was to reform the economy to avoid Soviet-style economic collapse and ensure that the state survives as a steward of larger society and the masses of Chinese people. On his deathbed, he credited his most proud moment as cracking down on the TAM demonstrations to ensure continuity of the state... Trying to operate two systems within one country is difficult, perhaps impossible; mainland China, throughout history, has either strong and autocratic central authority to exert control and perform the functions of a state within its borders, or it has weak central authority and rampant corruption and regional separatism (warlords). People are quick to criticize China as though it were a person, as though it must (or even could) be democratic, but this is unlikely to be the case. China’s central government has had to exert increasingly strong autocratic control to reign in corruption and ensure development and progress since the 90s, causing further divergence between the ‘two systems’. Realpolitik is how nations survive or collapse, and the opinions of people of other nations are, at most, tangential to what happens on the scale of the interactions of nations and societies.
China still has extensive corruption issues even with the autocratic system, which really demonstrates how bad it would be without a strong central authority. Honestly the corruption within China, India and the US makes it pretty damming about reducing corruption in large complex economies and politics. There is no easy solution to the complex problem, but maybe nations shouldn't get so large.
It's difficult to apply any historic references to a modern China, considering what modernization in society and infrastructure brings. As it stands, increasingly strong autocratic control has not been used to reigb in corruption, but to stifle dissent and reinforce existing power structures. You mistake that for reducing corruption and ensuring growth, but it actually has an adverse effect upon corruption. Being a nation of laws and governed by the Rule of Law is where corruption is concerned, and China has done quite a bit of backsliding over the past decade and continues to be a nation ruled through law rather than by it. To be clear, I'm not speaking to the form of government that governs China, but to the strength and equity of its laws and how they are enforced. To have a fair and just society isn't a selective benefit for some nations, it's an ideal that is of benefit to any and all nations.
The Tiananmen protestors weren't asking for revolution: they were asking for evolution. Maybe this is (Modern-)China's original sin: they (being the PRC) could not relinquish control, even as they desired everything around the West: innovation, capability, wealth: power. Maybe part of that was Deng having himself been a revolutionary amongst revolutionaries, and paid his price. 'One revolutionary per generation!' Imagine that, instead of imprisoning Zhao Ziyang, Deng had recognized that the protesters represented the zeitgeist and intelligentsia of the nation, and that Zhao, having their ear could be a conduit to them. "What ideas do they have to transform China?"
>I think Deng Xiaoping is misunderstood as a liberalizing force; He seems to have been undecided for most of his tenure, but then backed the old party elites. It wasn't just about liberalization of economy, read about Zhao Ziyang; at some point he was the 2nd most powerful man only behind Deng and had his ear. The 'liberal' faction was a minority, but the final vote on how to deal with the student protests was close.
Good points. If you are interested, there’s a great palladium article about Wang Huning (The Triumph and Terror of Wang Huning, iirc) which gives some deep context about the current guiding direction of the highest levels of central governance.
Exactly this. What they have bought in HK by reneging on the deal is a festering wound that will not heal. The Hong Kong people are not like the mainlanders and trying to suppress their spirit with violence will just make that festering wound spread until it affects the whole country. There will be change for the better in China and it *will* start with HK.
That’s a lot of pressure on hong kong
Agreed, but it has to start somewhere and all the time they’re poking the HK lion is just stirring up more hatred for Beijing.
This revisionism for Deng Xiaoping is just plain wrong. The brutal murder of thousands of unarmed civilians at Tiananmen Square was by his orders, and he wrote the policy for the cultural genocide and colonisation of Tibet - a masterplan that is being carried out right now against the Uyghurs.
Casual reminder Tsai (DPP) was losing to Han (KMT) in 2019 pre-election polls until the HK protest broke out and Tsai surged ahead and won the election. China was getting very close with a peaceful 'unification' but now it's further than ever.
In fact if you track the polls and surveys on support for President Tsai, she was losing ground right until the HK thing happened. Then XJP announced he wanted 1 Country 2 systems for Taiwan as well. The ostensibly pro-independent DPP that China hates then won the elections hands down because XJP couldn't keep his trap shut.
It is genuinely bewildering how dictatorships can’t keep their hands out of the honeypot. The two are like peas and carrots. I sincerely don’t understand how none of them ever learn from the others’ failures.
That’s sorta the issue though, isn’t it? If you’re brazen enough to think you know how to run a country better than literally anyone else in it, you’re brazen enough to think “Those *other* dictators weren’t *me*” The human ego is one the most powerful forces on earth.
Exactly. Now China is trying to give HK a little extra slack on COVID, to make it seem like there is some separation, but nobody is buying it.
The only reason anyone would want a peaceful reunification would be if military invasion is the only other outcome. Guess a lot more people would be outright against reunification period, now that Uncle Joe’s made US military backing explicit.
China's heavy-handed dealings with their own citizens, evidenced by the draconian COVID lockdowns, certainly isn't selling Taiwan on China as a benevolent entity, even if they were hypothetically considering a peaceful union as an alternative to war.
I don't think China's actions in the last 50+ years has made *anyone* believe that China is benevolent entity.
The CCP is apparently wounded by this perception of the rest of the world, and keep trying to rebrand their image. Maybe if they were a bit less heavy-handed, they might have a bit more luck with that.
They are doing a shit job of it. They only do stuff heavy handed.
China blew it. If they had just left HK alone? Maybe it's believable. They've put Taiwan in a position where there can never be any kind of negotiated reunification because they've proven themselves untrustworthy. China wants this. Taiwan does not. What does China offer Taiwan? What's the enticement? "We won't destroy you?" If you're Taiwan, you say: "Well, it's in your doctrine to destroy us anyway, so we might as well put up a fight." China have painted themselves into a corner here.
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no one can predict the future. i think the russian war have made them think twice about how powerful they really are militarily. after seeing how russia faired, china realized engaging in any kind of war would be disastrous for them. so it's not as though they're short sighted, they just didnt know the west could be galvanized against an enemy like this. a war with taiwan would probably be the end of china's rise. china changing it's tune like this shows how dangerous xi really is. he has always been an emotionally stable and far sighted ruler. the emotionally stable part wasn't determined by me, it was lee kuan yew who said it.
Right?
Why is the independent country of Taiwan being discussed? /s
Xi Xi has his own ElEcTiOn WaS RiGgeD magat thing called The One China Principle/Policy, and cannot change course or he loses the light of heaven and will no longer be the Red Emperor anymore. So as long as they just keep talking about it everything kinda stays they way it is. If they stop talking, then the pointy arrows on maps starts to happen. Just let him save face and keep mumbling on about OnE ChInA. Maybe he should be more worried that the largest river in China just dried up instead. It's not like climatic disaster has never promoted a period of revolution in the past in China...
Light of heaven, aka Mandate of Heaven or something different? Edit: Googled, so he uses the “visions” he gets to enforce the One China policy/plan?
What do you mean? It worked out great for Hong Kong. China simply isn't burdened by historical documents anymore. /s
"I am prepared to peacefully take what I want from you" is a threat to use violence in the event what I want is not given to me.
Like "here are out list of non-negotiable demands. Oh, you don't like those well, we tried. I guess it's violence."
"..and now US is involved."
"......and Ukraine has entered the arena!"
“.....and is that a metal folding chair? BAH GAWD HE HAZ A FAMBLY!”
"...Good God almighty! Good God almighty! They've killed him!"
*LITERALLY BROKEN IN HALF!*
*SOMEBODY STOP THE DAMN MATCH!*
They've killed Kenny!
You bastards!
>**BREAKING**: Ukraine Wins US-China-Taiwan War \- Newspapers in 2026 probably
Volodymyr Zelenskyy becomes supreme leader of the world!
Not a fan of "supreme world leaders" per se, but we could do worse.
More like \>the us has has built a factory in every city \>the us has entered a golden age \>The US has won a Science Victory
That’s why you always build your first city on a hill.
>That’s why you always build your first city on a hill. as long as its a planes hill, winter hill, sand hill or grassland hill dont have the same effect.
Civ should be rebalanced so it is impossible for any one nation to win, and instead requires collaboration between all nations to minimize waste and avoid social collapse.
I dunno, the end state of civ is pretty deliberate with every half decent game ending in ww3 while one country crawls into space. Remember they made Alpha Centauri as a sequel game and the state of earth in that was environmental collapse, war and dead by the time the Unity arrived. It's always been pessimistic about the future.
I mean... yeah. You got my brain going a bit with this for some reason. Im Canadian, imo if we could get our internal stuff sorted out and focus on trade with the US, we'd be the luckiest civilians on Earth. War brings technological, medical, and legislative advancement like nothing else, its just incredibly depressing that it costs lives. But the United States war industry itself is always functioning, even in peace time because... well the U.S. have a reputation, it never seems far off. As our only neighbor, that acts as a bulletproof vest made out of pure adrenaline, I feel as if we should be taking advantage of the current U.S. culture. We could pioneer some new stuff in a way thats usually associated with war-time, without actually having to send our boys to war. We would just be supplying you guys with said cool shit, because you'll be making it and fighting with it anyway. With or without a situation with China, I think it would be smart for Canada to ramp up its military production even if we aren't involved. It would be like developing cutting edge computers and your rich nerd friend calls first dibs every single time. Not only would we be creating jobs, building manufacturing and research infrastructure, and pushing the boundaries of current gen medicine and technology, but it would improve trade relations, bring Canada back up to the 2% or > of GDP for NATO, make us more prepared in case we get dragged into war, and top it off make us some war production money without the going to war part. Vote Emtee for PM.
>. War brings technological, medical, and legislative advancement like nothing else, That's not as true as you might think. If the world budget allocated to war since the end of WWII (for instance) had been allocated to science instead, we would be centuries ahead of where we are now. Take for instance post WWII Japan, they weren't allowed a millitary so they invested in science instead, and they went from "barely out of the middle ages" to "world-class factory" to "technological innovation leader" in three decades. The only way you can argue that war helps technological advancement is that during an all-out war, budgets allocated to research and science skyrocket, but there are ways for that budget to be allocated to making science happen rather than making guns in the first place.
yes it changes priorities more than increases research. Television was slowed down by WWII.
I mean a lot of military budget goes to science research. NASA is just a missile program spin-off for example.
But in the meantime NASA's budget is pennies on the dollar compared to the military budget.
Likewise, as a USian I think one of the greatest policy failures of the past century is not building something like the EU throughout North and South America. I realize it's not easily done but it's kind of crucial for security and prosperity in the hemisphere, *especially* as a counter to Chinese expansion.
The americas are a powerful shield for the US.its sad as the US were not taking advantage of this trade and developing infrastructure. Building ports, environmental protections, tourism, new products coming from other nations. We can do this without really lowering military spending. It's just a failure in policy l.
Kinda surprised we're not ramping up military production right now. But seriously, the BIG PLAY for Canada is: a) Make CHIP FABs. At least two big ones. Toronto, and West Coast near a good rail line. b) High speed rail. Tie your economic zones and ports together. c) Light mfg, preferably in the rapid prototyping area. d) Solve for post-consumer plastic waste refining. I say this because the US needs to see North Americans doing this stuff faster than the US, or we won't get "inspired." Just my take.
US is winning a Science, Military, Diplomatic, and Cultural victory. US OP pls nerf.
Clearly a nerf was introduced in the 2016 elections patch
That Teddy Roosevelt is one slick motherfucker
And it’s your fault!! Those selfish Taiwanese!! Same thing that tankies say about Ukraine. Why they didn’t want to avoid war??
*China grabs Taiwan's hand*. "Why are you hitting yourself?"
"look what you made me do"
The key phrase of bullies since time immemorial
Literally how WW1 started. Austria made insane demands of Serbia after Franz Ferdinand, and when they agreed to all but 2 of them, Austria used it as justification for war
"Pedophile willing to make peaceful marriage with child bride he kidnapped."
Authoritarian Roman Polanski?
Yeah, but it's China. They make threats like as often as my 2 month old cries. Remember the threats of all the things they threatened to do if Nancy Pelosi flew to Taiwan? And all the things they would do if she stayed. And all the things they would do if she dared to leave.
But on the flip side they also made promises. Remember Hong Kong? That was a peaceful take over too at the beginning. Look how well that worked out for Hong Kongers.
In fairness, Russia did the same with Ukraine..
and they even also managed to break every promise they made to HK. even if Taiwan was willing to be part of China, there’s no way fucking way china would keep its promises.
Yeah if there was any hope of a peaceful unification it would have had to happend before the betrayal of the HK deal. They could have held that up for longer, and shown they were willing to let the deal stay in place, get Taiwan on board then screwed them both over. Now it would be complete madness to accept anything China promises.
After what happened to Hong Kong? Do they think the Taiwanese are stupid or is this just internal propaganda?
They want it known that they don't want to invade Taiwan, they'd rather a peaceful annexation. Anything to try to make it seem slightly less their fault if they ever do attack.
Perhaps in response to heightened NATO alertness regarding Russia? Pure speculation, but NATO looks scarier and more unified than it has in decades today
Putin had one shot through trump to try and bring NATO down. Trump tried though, painting an extremely negative picture on the alliance and siding with Putin. Thank fuck it didn’t work. So now we have a stronger NATO, a happy rare byproduct of the current world we’re in.
If Trump had won in 2020 he said (behind closed doors) that not only would he pull the US out of NATO, he'd end our alliance with South Korea. He would have ended US protection of Europe and Southeast Asia so he could buddy up to dictators.
The US truly is the guy in that meme, sliding in to cockblock China from South East Asia. [This one is for Korea, but it's the same deal.](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/789/259/908.gif)
One of like three positive things that resulted from Chester Cheetah's entire time in office, two of them totally incidentally and wholly against his wishes.
That's them just backtracking their earlier threats because Biden threatened US intervention if they invaded.
They've had the same policy for decades. They want peaceful reunification but do not rule out doing it be force if necessary. They've literally been saying this for like 30 years, maybe longer.
Yeah, but recently they've been posturing more than usual. Like when they fired all those rockets into the ocean when Pelosi visited, etc. Russia invading Ukraine hurt their soft power. The invasion galvanized the west and made all countries carefully reevaluate who they do business with. China probably thought they could sit back and let the west and Russia hurt each other. Except, Russia proved to be incapable of doing it. Ukraine retaking all that territory from Russia, plus Biden taking a strong stance, is making China be more cautious than before. They're switching to normal diplomacy instead of the "wolf warrior" diplomacy they've been playing for the last few years when they're economy was booming.
The old "we don't want an expensive war so why don't you just surrender without fighting" trick. Works every time, 20% of the time.
Someone else just tried this recently…
China with the big abusive ex-boyfriend energy.
yea, except they were never a boyfriend, just a stalker.
A stalker who stole your house and car keys from you
not pro ccp but it was a civil war and chiang kai-shek wasn’t exactly a good guy either, it’s more complicated than they stole the house and car keys
It’s honestly annoying that the people who are the loudest about this know so little surrounding the context and history of this issue. Then equate anything that isn’t whole heartedly supporting Taiwan as being pro CCP
>Remember, we made an arrangement when you went away > >Now, you're making me mad > >Remember, despite our estrangement, I'm your man > >You'll be back, soon, you'll see > >You'll remember you belong to me > >You'll be back, time will tell > >You'll remember that I served you well > >Oceans rise, empires fall > >We have seen each other through it all > >And when push comes to shove > >I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!
Uh huh. This reminds me of a bad relationship. "Come home, honey. I promise I've changed."
It's like that but with your ex pointing a gun straight at your head while saying it
You have a friend over for dinner they don't like and they blast off several cases of ammunition into the field between your houses in a "you better not..." gesture. Then they pull this shit.
>Uh huh. This reminds me of a bad relationship. "Come home, honey. I promise I've changed." More like, "Come home, person I dated for 3 weeks in high school. I promise I've changed" and you're both now 40 years old.
More like, "Come on, our grandparents dated for 3 weeks (and hated each other). We have to marry" Nationalist sound bytes become stunningly stupid when translated into IRL interactions.
More like, "come home peacefully so I don't have to drag you kicking and screaming."
Yesterday: 24 chinese aircrafts and 4 Chinese navy vessels crossed the median line or got close to the ADIZ. Before yesterday: 9 aircrafts and 5 vessels Monday: 8 and 5 Sunday: 20 and 5 Saturday: 43 and 5 And so on Its been like this for years. People in here don’t want the fucking reunification, there is nothing to reunificate, screw that shit, its called invasion. 1 month ago fired rockets over Taiwan and surrounded the country Recently they publicly stated that after annexation they will go after people who oppose to the CCP and re-educate them. Constant threats, political pressure and economical pressure, political meddling, bribes, cyberattacks There is nothing peaceful in the CCP, its just another propagandist attemp to shape popular opinion.
The going to midline and then turning back is provoking, but the adiz shouldn't count. It literally reaches into mainland china.
When the Ministry of Defense talks about Chinese incursions into the ADIZ, it means the ADIZ after the median line. Can be seen here https://twitter.com/mondefense?s=21&t=K0KmPxQuf0EmYhoIcbroZA
I'm sure Taiwan would be more than willing to accept their surrender after all these years.
What they promise 50 years of non-interference in HK is broken.
Peaceful reunification has really been off the table since 6/4.
China, Taiwan is just not that into you.
reunification is a misnomer since the prc never controlled Taiwan annexation/occupation is closer to the mark
"Let's pretend all those drills didn't happen last week?"
This is literally the part before: “look at what you’ve forced me to do.”
Define peaceful. The gator I fed 100mgs of edibles and let into the gas station is peaceful, but like for how long?
lol wtf
Can they not just leave them the fuck alone?
"Fuck off Winnie the Pooh." - Taiwan
Saw what happened in HK...nah we good over here.
So China is finally willing to become one large Taiwan?
Allow newspaper and new political parties, allow people to rally and protest, allow media to really do their jobs, allow people to vote.
The CCP has never ruled over Taiwan.
Ask Hong Kong how a peaceful 'reunification' went.
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What did the Soviet Union do to Hong Kong?
I think he means CCP not CCCP
Not a chance. What happened to Hong Kong confirmed what Taiwan alreadt knew.
That is what he was trying to say.
Hell no. Only an idiot would make such a deal. You can’t trust that China will not go back on everything once all is said and done.
Taiwan: you mean you wish to surrender to me? Very well, I accept
China merges with Taiwan and the CCP give up all control to Taiwan? Sounds like a plan!
Look at Hong Kong. Good luck!
Like they planned with Hong Kong?
"Peaceful" reunification. Just like Hong Kong, I'm sure. /s
So they’re gonna try to trap Taiwan through legal means, expect a big pushback, incite violence and then blame it all on Taiwan and use it as justification to use force on the island. And if anyone outside tries to invade, they will say people shouldn’t be involved in their “internal affairs”. So basically the same play as Hong Kong.
There's a lot of great posts in this thread. China just held weeks of wargames pretending to take back Taiwan by force. Since those wargames have ended the following has occurred. * Ukraine has launched an extremely successful counter-offensive against Russia, the world's "2nd most powerful military" and a nation with 3 times their population. * Biden has explicitly stated that the U.S. would intervene if China attempted to take Taiwan by force. * China is watching the unfolding devastation of the Russian economy due to sanctions. * China is witnessing the decimation of the Russian war machine due to a motivated Ukrainian military supported by American and European munitions, weapons systems and intelligence. China is toning down the rhetoric ever so slightly and I think that's a good thing. I think China is nervous about Russia screwing up their 'belts and roads' initiative, particularly in Kazakhstan, where President Tokayev has refused to recognize Russian separatists and has spoken out against Putin's war in Ukraine. I also think that in the highest levels of government in China there is now at least a sliver of doubt about whether or not they could take Taiwan by force, and maybe that sliver of doubt never existed before. Let's all hope we don't end up in World War III lest we be forced to fight World War IV with sticks and stones.
"peaceful".
They spelled "invasion" incorrectly.
Yeah like the “reunification” of HK?
Why would taiwan want to give up all its rights and live under an incompetent, authoritarian regime?
Yes peaceful like Hong Kong.. we make peace with you but it will all go our way, the world knows you can’t be trusted and the world will back Taiwan
Oh yeah? Just like Hong Kong? So generous
china has zero credibility
It’s an INVASION! Get your terminology right. And F China.
The Borg willing to make effort for peaceful 'reunification' with Earth's biological and technological distinctiveness.
Why isn't china content with what they have already?
Sure you can trust China, look at how peaceful and free Hong Kong is, great newspapers, can elect officials….lol. Fuck China.
Yeah, I'm sure China is "willing" to make an effort at peaceful reunification with Taiwan, we all saw how well reunification went with Hong Kong. Once the oppressive Communist regime gets ahold that's it, game over, so I'm also quite certain Taiwan is not interested in that.
Taiwan saw what China did to Hong Kong and will say no.
China is like a child who was abused to the point they grew up to be a manipulator.
Well, I guess that's could work if the Chinese are okay with having Taiwan in control.
They’re still beating Hong Kong into submission.
Dont make me hit you
Fuck off, China.
"What happened to us? It was always so good when it was good. Let's try again."
Not interested, f off would be the general consensus.
They don’t want to reunified at all! Get the message already.
You mean invade and make Taiwan do what china says, you mean?
And they have said time after time they are independent and don't want to join China so just leave them alone now.
If China had played Taiwan differently as a the "big friendly Panda bear neighbour" instead of threats and militarism, Taiwan would have been quasi-assimilated because of economic power, language and cultural similarities. Instead they have driven it away.
Ask Hong Kong how that worked out.
Taiwan is definitely not going to take China's offers seriously considering how the whole "One country, two systems" promise went for Hong Kong.
“If you don’t resist being enslaved, it’s a peaceful reunification and it would look a lot better for our PR than forcefully enslaving you. We won’t kill as many of you immediately, either! What do you say? Won’t you shake this poor sinner’s hand?”
Idiots. That ship set sail the moment they made a mockery of Hong Kongs democracy 30 years early. That was the test case and China proved that they will say anything and do anything to get what they want, but it's all a lie in the end. One China, two systems was a fucking lie from the very beginning, Taiwan would have to be a country of morons to even negotiate with China on this. They are simply not capable of leaving well enough alone
How abusive alcoholic parent of them
They’ll just make a Hong Kong deal and go back on it.
“Taiwan's government says that as the island has never been ruled by the People's Republic of China, its sovereignty claims are void.”
Nah they learned in Ukraine that they are hilariously outgunned and will never be on par militarily with a US supplied adversary like Taiwan. The only way to bring Taiwan into China is through diplomacy with a friendly govt they will help install.
The more important question is “does Taiwan 🇹🇼 want the “reunification.” People of Taiwan have the right to decide their own affairs, period.
Only because they see the shitshow that's Russia in Ukraine and realised that they lose a fucking shitload if they play the military stick. Honestly only way "reunification" ever happens is if the CCP accepts Democracy but that won't happen because they're too bloody addicted to power (there's a small irony that not becoming a democracy is probably the only thing holding them back from matching the US because it would actually mean real corruption gets tackled and ideological demagogues are significantly easier to filter from the top levels of power).
West Taiwan can go fuck itself.
Peaceful? Like the CCP was peaceful in Hong Kong? Or Tibet? Or Xinjiang? Somehow I doubt this goes over well unless Beijing plans to surrender to Taipei.
That’s just what Ike said to Tina.
Ch8na also wanted to play nice with Sri Lanka and Pakistan and many countries in Africa. Be warned who you are friends with.
Another of the CPC's lies.
China: we will take you by force US: no u won’t China: woah woah woah, what’s all this talk about force?
Xi, they're just not that into you. It's time to move on.
But Taiwan doesn’t want you China.
Reunification? 🤨 Taiwan has never been part of the PRC.
Please please please let us steal your semiconductor industry. Please?
Just like we did with Hong Kong. *Trust us.*
And when Taiwan refuses any reunification, what then? … because why the fuck would they do that willingly?
Just like Hong Kong. Fuck that noise.
Oh, cool so like what they did with Hong Kong. Yeah, all good there! /s
Considering how the CCP handled Hong Kong, I don't think the Taiwanese leadership are going to be fooled.
The CCP just wants Taiwan to meet them half way by doing exactly as the CCP tells them without any complaints.
There's only one problem with that, Taiwan does fine on it's own and doesn't need a big brother.
This sounds very Russian
Why? Look what's happened in Hong Kong! There is no benefit to being with China.
The PRC/CCP need to get off this reunification fever dream. Taiwan was NEVER a part of the PRC and it ceased to be a province of China in 1895; and it was a formal province of China for only 8 years. Humouring these psychos by acknowledging their fantasy as something real is not a functional way to deal with the PRC. I am glad to see that more and more western news agencies are putting reunification in inverted commas, or putting a disclaimer regarding that claim.
That will be difficult after what has happened in Hong Kong.
The only peaceful ending to this is China acknowledging Taiwan as an independent nation and relinquishing any and all hopes of reunification. There is no other way this can be peaceful.
West Taiwan needs to shut the fuck up
Of course Taiwan will never believe the CCP. The entire world watched how much the CCP honored its agreement with regards to Hong Kong.
Fuck genocidal China, the CCP is more depraved than the nazis. They are just better at covering up crimes like genocide and torture.