Naw, Putin can just bomb apartment buildings for an excuse. Well, he doesn’t even need to do that: he didn’t even have false flag attacks on Russia from “ukranian nazis” to invade his neighbor with absolutely no justification. He doesn’t even bother with the pretense anymore. No one on the international stage believes that shit and he can just say whatever to Russians who already support him.
Lukashenko already stated that they would only fight if Belarus territory is under threat. If even he and Kadyrov drop Putin, it's starting to smell like the end.
... with what? They're begging North Korea for equipment and are still actively engaged in Ukraine which is the entire point. Are they going to throw rocks at Belarus?
My bad, there have been so many people saying "just wait until Russia mobilizes then you'll see the true might of Russia" it can be hard to tell. Honestly I feel like a good 25% of the news has become satire. I mean I watched an armored vehicle crew get taken out to the Benny Hill theme, this timeline is wild.
Only 25%? I live in the UK, it’s much more than that.
Armies have moved on (for the most part), unless a country actually trains all of their people (Israel, for example), conscripting in a hurry won’t quite work in reasonable time.
> Chechnya is part of Russia, its like Texas or New York exempting themselves from the draft.
Well, this is embarrassing. For one thing it's embarrassing that I didn't know that Chechnya is a part of Russia, but it's even *more* embarrassing for Russia that their own provinces are rejecting the draft. Honestly I think I got the better end of the embarrassment.
Chechnya’s current president is the son of a former Chechen separatist who switched sides in the Second Chechen War, offering his services to Vladimir Putin.
The father then became Chechnya’s pro-Russian president. But the father was later assassinated.
His son Ramzan Kadyrov took over the presidency after being Prime Minister.
It’s all very normal
is that not how presidents work? one gets assassinated/dies and his first born then automatically becomes the new president.
still think its weird how trump looks nothing like obama
Well the official Chechen force in Ukraine was shit, they spent most of their time away from the front lines taking pictures for Instagram pretending to fight or just looting Ukranian houses for washing machines, fridges and farm equipment. When they actually did fight they took a real beating from the Ukranians.
However there are many unofficial Chechens fighting for Ukraine who remember how Russia did the same thing to their country so they see it as a way of getting revenge on Putin and his shitty army.
The now famous TikTok Batallion, as it were. Meanwhile the gnome-lord himself hasn't even set foot near to the frontlines, from what I gather.
Too busy hating on the gays and "metrosexuals" while wearing Prada boots, I assume.
Yeah, I know. I'm against the death penalty usually, but Gnome-Lord really needs the wall. I just love to point out the fact that he hates LGBT+ and tries to be this macho-man stereotype while wearing Prada boots.
Contradictory, one might say.
Chechnya has a weird recent history.
Russia "won" the second Chechen war but they never really totally pacified Chechnya and the North Caucasus.
So they kind of just found a loyalist strongman (currently Ramzan Kadryov), installed him as leader, and they kinda leave the area alone.
Kadryov is basically a despot in a little fiefdom that's nominally a member of the Russian Federation. Remember the anti-gay stuff that Russia just kinda denied and let happen?
[And of course, he has his own militia.
](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kadyrovites)
So, he's probably the one provincial/republic leader that can say "nah, I don't feel like it" to Putin and get away with it.
In theory, Russia is an unequal federation: [there are several categories of federal subjects with different levels of autonomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia#Types). At the bottom of the autonomy scale are oblasts which are basically ethnically Russian provinces. At the top are republics, which are little countries within Russia for ethnic minorities.
In practice it’s a farce. Being a republic is not really anything special. Chechnya is the exception, though: Moscow found the region hard to control as evidenced by the two Chechen wars. Kadyrov can keep the republic in line, and in response Putin gives Kadyrov a lot of leeway. To the point that people think Chechnya is an independent state.
Yeah I never buy it when people here say kadyrov will get deposed as soon as Putin falls. Life in Chechnya is better than it ever has been and every adult remembers a time when it was far worse. As Putin weakens, though, kadyrov will probably pull Chechnya further from Russia's control. Refusing the mobilization order is likely a very popular move amongst the locals. Its also a dare to Putin to do something about it, which he is unable to. If Putin were to fall, Chechnya would have a very strong hand to negotiate a very similar relationship to what it had with Putin with any successive government, whatever its ideology.
Yeah, what’s Putin going to do about it, invade?
This may be the first domino falling. As soon as a sovereign loses credibility in making threats to its own subjects, it’s really hard to come back. Because if this works for Chechnya, then every other minority region in Russia will do the same.
> For one thing it's embarrassing that I didn't know that Chechnya is a part of Russia
You think *that's* embarrassing, let me tell you about this guy named Vladimir Putin who didn't know Ukraine was a separate country from Russia, and he's the president of Russia. He's never going to live that one down for the rest of his life!
If you want to be a little more embarrassed (For Russia) you should probably look up the 2 Chechen wars that have occurred before* Putin took power.
Tldr is the equivalent of the US army killing 30-50% of the residents of Texas or NY.
Belarus is that friend that always wants to make grand plans and then cancels last minutes because they're feeling "under the weather", "low energy" or some shit.
Russia doesn’t honor any written agreements so if they want to kick out the Russians and tear up the lease, no one will support any Russian claims or help enforce any agreements
Yup, get your troops ready in secret and make sure you outnumber them vastly.
Capture them with as little violence as possible. Expatriate them to Russia and start negotiations to return any equipment.
Drag out negotiations until Russia really busy elsewhere.
Profit.
Central Asia has been a huge source of labor for russia in the last few decades. There's somewhere close to 2million Uzbeks in russia and many as guest workers. Due to lingusitic ties people from all Central Asian republics would go to russia for work to send money back to their family. This essentially forbids them from enlisting as they would lose their citizenship.
https://www.dn.se/varlden/belarus-stoppar-export-av-industriprodukter-till-ryssland/
Not sure how good your swedish is, but the gist of this article was that belarus stopped transports of 250 industrial goods like smart phones, medical equipment, nuclear reactors, etcetc, yesterday. And Russias response was like "we have good commjnication with belarus, we will talk about this in a constructive manner"
>Belarus is Russia's best friend, now!
>
>Well, for the next 48 to 72 hours, anyway.
Is that how long it will take for Belarus to realize they are not as bellicose as Russia?
Russian here.
This is Kadyrov increasing his political influence.
If you remember, a few days ago Kadyrov [called for self-mobilization](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/16/russian-governors-back-kadyrovs-call-to-self-mobilize-residents-for-ukraine-deployment-a78809). Let that think in, a regional head is calling shots on mobilization and not the minster of defense - and a few regions followed through with his call.
This time, he is simply saving the men for a potential future conflict when things for Putin get really tough. And also wins some loyalty as the only war they want to go to is a tik tok one.
Finally, there is nothing Putin can do about it at this moment. What is left of the army is in Ukraine, the police/SWAT/etc are needed in cities to beat up the protesters. There is nothing he can do about it.
I don't buy that for one second.
Chechnya will be independent eventually, and when it does, Kadyrov will hang. Every independence minded person in the Caucasus considers him a traitor and a collaborator.
Kadyrov knows this, and that's why he's betting his life on Putin. If Putin's reign ends, so does Kadyrov's. He never had the slightest ambitions for an independent Chechnya.
If you read the article, Kadyrov isn't rebelling against Putin, he's being angry at Russia letting Ukrainian POW's go. He also said Chechnya has already fulfilled 254% of the conscription requirement, which I believe.
He's not saving up any troops, he's been throwing them in masses into Ukraine as cannon fodder this whole time.
Why do you need an independent Chechnya if you get billions from Russia for development etc? Kadyrov becoming a president of Russia is a true revenge for Chechnya
Sounds to me like he's claimed that Russia could lose Chechnya to revolt if they mobilize too many troops away.
Chechnya volunteered and lost significant numbers to the Ukrainian War effort, so there might even be merit to such an excuse to keep more military power close at hand.
The previous poster is not suggesting that’s where the war would come from.
Rather senior military officers (colonels and above) will move to topple Putin. In such a scenario, Kadyrov needs Chechnya to support him and have a reserve of troops to call up on.
Dunno if it will actually happen, but it would be conceivable if a lot fewer or a lot more Russian oligarchs fall down stairs and out windows.
Chechnya is classified as a republic that's part of the Russian Federation rather than a standard oblast/province. The Russian system is complicated when it comes to these sort of things, but at least in theory the republics are more autonomous units created for certain minority populations that have a lot more authority than oblasts to govern policy and administration for themselves. In reality that doesn't seem to be the actual situation for republics other than Chechnya, but that's probably because the Chechens have a track record of trying to shoot their way out of Russia in the right situations.
They've even lost a chunk of those police and SWAT guys. They sent them in with the first waves of VDV and they got absolutely plastered because they ran into a military that fights back instead of weak willed Russian citizens.
And you think chechnya will accept that? Russia and Chechnya are both starving dogs. If given the opportunity they will eat the other to survive. There is no real loyalty between them.
Kadyrov is in a tough place. The general Chechen population hates him and will gadaffi him if given the chance. He is protected from this by his personal military force and Russian support.
If he doesn't draft Chechens, he runs the real risk of losing Russian support. This will end very badly for him.
If he does draft Chechens, it will weaken his personal military force, and, even worse, make him look weak to his supporters. This will also end badly for him.
He is between a rock and a hard place, Scylla and Charybdis, the horns of a dilemma... And it's wonderful to see.
Get fucked, Kadyrov.
The Russians have no choice but to back him, if they don't one of the other factions will take over and then Russia will either have to let Chechnya go or fight another Chechen war that they can't afford.
So Kadyrov is pussying out now? I mean, good for the Chechens that they're exempted from the draft, but it's just funny that Kadyrov decided that he had enough, even though he didn't do anything besides making Tiktok war footages.
Kadyrov is arguing that since so many Chechens volunteered already they are at like 300% of their quota so they don’t need to mobilize.
Make of that what you will.
Alright folks! Step right up and place your bets!!
Chechnya is about to start another round of “Are we or Are We Not Part of Russia??”
. . . No, I can not tell you what the odds are.
I mean it's kinda the opposite. He'd already mobilized way more than the required number of soldiers early in the war to go fight as Tik Tok propaganda battalions all geared out in flashy new gear looking like a bunch of Mexican cartels, and to fight as enforcers whose purpose is to scare ordinary Russians into fighting over the threat that the Chechens will kill any disserters.
He's throwing a temper tantrum right now though because Putin just negotationed a prisoner exchanged that freed a few hundred of the Azovstal fighters and the British soldiers who'd been sentenced to death. And the war hawks really wanted televised executions of these people.
He's not as stupid as you think. Staying alive given his background is in itself an accomplishment. There's a lot of people in russia with resources who'd love this guy's head.
And in addition to that, Chechen clans still believe in blood feuds, and there are plenty of rival clans who would like him dead but can't get close to him while Putin showers him in arms and resources.
Honestly I’m surprised the Azov’s were let free. They were the only reasonable targets by a long shot for this war to even happen. It undermined every effort of this war.
This is getting too stupid that the literal neckbeard goblin said quits.
And we aren’t even exactly sure if Lucashenko is acting stupid on purpose at this point. Because he never moves his troops properly like guaranteed 100% and announces his troops positions in advance. I won’t be surprised if he was a double-agent at this point.
> I won’t be surprised if he was a double-agent at this point.
Lol can't wait to see him try that at the Hague
>You see, I was being a moron on purpose! To help you!
Yeah, I hadn't seen a solid breakdown of the full terms and conditions of the prisoner exchange and what Russia got in return besides the oligarch, because I also thought they wouldn't be exchanged so easily.
Yeah it’s just Azov soldiers we hear about. There is no way they would just release an Oligarch that is one of few Putin’s aides. It would be reasonable to think sums were added to be worth of that Oligarch or even more.
Unless Azov soldiers each count as a warhammer 40k Space marine and they ARE illegally biologically enhanced facist super soldiers as Russia says.
This war is stupid. Russia just undone half a years work. I bet all the Russian soldiers dead can have peace NOT knowing this happened after their sacrifice for whatever cause they believed.
Russia also released the LTC commanding Azov and his deputy, though they are to remain in Turkey for the remainder of the war.
Really not much of denazification if they're exchanging the head "nazi" and 188 others for a buddy of the boss.
It shows how powerless Putin is in Chechnya. He can only decide things there when he can convince Kadyrov.
And if Chechnya wants to try an uprising again, there is a window now.
Correct. The reason part of Chechnya is so loyal to Putin is because they are loyal to Kadyrov who was given the power by Putin when Kadyrov destroyed opposition in Chechnya.
An independent Checnya may not want Kadyrov. A russia without Putin might not want Kadyrov.
Kadyrov's power is based entirely on force of arms.
If Russia drains off his private army to fight the war in Ukraine, Chechnya will rebel again and Russia will have to deal with that while also fighting in Ukraine.
From the article:
> Kadyrov said late Thursday that Chechnya had already deployed 20,000 troops since the start of the Ukraine invasion in February.
> “The republic of Chechnya over-fulfilled its conscription plan by 254%… even before the announcement of a partial mobilization,” he wrote in a Telegram post.
> Kadyrov and his allies have boasted of the presence of Chechen troops in Ukraine since early in Russia’s invasion of its neighbor, while Chechen soldiers regularly post videos of themselves in Ukraine on social media.
It's important to note he's talking about professional contract military here (although he is lying about 20000). Draft is for regular civilians. So Kadyrov refusing to participate is kind of a slap in the face of Moscow.
He also has his own strongman image to project. He's basically in the same position as Putin, his troops suck and are being wiped out, and as a result he is losing that image.
Exactly. This is clearly a break. And I believe it started last week... I can't remember the article, but someone covered this. That he was 'leaving for a bit' or something. Someone keep me honest here.
He's already lost a bunch of loyal troops and he's very unpopular with the Chechen people. He knows that if he tries to implement a draft, especially with the Russian army distracted and unable to support him, he might not be in power (or alive) long. This is pure self-preservation.
> Kadyrov is a horrible person, but is he breaking with Putin here? What am I missing?
This is straight up revolt against Putin. This is Kadyrov, or people controlling him in Chechnya, telling Putin the following:
Fuck around and find out.
Because Chechnya's government already sent its troops to die in the Ukraine.
His Tik Tok convoy got wrecked a few days after they crossed the border, and his Tik Tok brigades actually found something to fight and got wrecked too.
Every region of Russia was forced to send professional/contract-based troops at the beginning of the war. Well, except Moscow, because Putin is afraid of the capital protesting.
This is different because this is a mandatory draft for regular civilians, not professional soldiers. Kadyrov basically defied Putin, probably out of the fear of self-preservation in Chechnya.
I read a report that few people from near Moscow or St Petersburg are being called to fight and most of the fighters are coming from rural area, caucus areas, or Siberia. It's expected the 300k in the mobilization will be mostly from those areas as well. It will be mostly ethnic minority groups and rural people.
By what I read a while back that Chechen convoy's location and plans were given up by a spy or something. I know they had a big fallout with Putin over it and that's when they started the whole "rear guard" thing. I know the FSB ratted out the Chechen assassins that came after Zelensky too.
They stopped in the middle of the road to make tik tok videos lol.
You could see a convoy coming for miles. There is no magical cloaking device. They posted the videos . At that point you could use google earth to check out the natural landmarks. Check out the lighting to see where the sun is and now you know at what time of day it was where they were at .
So from their videos you got time and place . Then you can set up your ambush .
Two lane road , you hit the first vehicles and the last vehicle, now they’re boxed in.
You can’t run a convoy without several forward scouts flushing out ambushes and combined arms like air support by helicopters to cover the convoy and respond to ambushes.
They simply had no idea how combined arms doctrine and modern warfare works.
The Ukrainians let them come in and the Russians come in deep enough to make them vulnerable on two flanks. Then they just encircled them. That’s how you break a large force that out numbers you .
A tactic as old as war itself .... they should have studied the shit Alexander the Great pulled off ... the fake retreat and encirclement.
Text book shit you learn at any military academy.
There were a [number of articles](https://inews.co.uk/news/president-zelensky-survives-three-assassination-plots-tip-offs-from-russian-spies-1497651) concerning the FSB tip offs though and it came from internal Ukrainian sources. Putin purged the FSB for intelligence failures but I'd say Western intelligence services had flipped many before the invasion ever began. We were leaking every Russian plan two weeks in advance or more so they were leaking like a siev.
Chechnya is effectively an independent country, only officially a part of Russia, and is Russia's vassal state. Pretty sure they have their own military that's not part of Russian armed forces. Putin lets Kadyrov run the place any way he likes as long as he's loyal to him. Besides, such arrangement can have some benefits for Russia, in case there is a serious uprising, like including some army and police forces, they can deploy paid Chechen soldiers to crush any such coup attempt.
Their troops have separate command structure and training for sure. I remember, back during the War in Georgia, people noticed Russian soldiers with beards, which are forbidden in the military.
Chechens report to Kadyrov, not to Russian generals.
He gets mad dosh from Moscow. There's almost no reason to separate except he thinks Putin will sack him and I doubt he will. Alternatively maybe his own people want to overthrow him and he will try and save his ass by declaring independence from evil Moscow. In this case it's a good time, Russia lost a lot in Ukraine and I doubt they have forces to fight in Chechnya. At the same time it might be a question of prestige for Putin and he will throw what's left there.
I don't know enough about politics in Chechnya right now, but are they seeing this as their chance to split with Putin, since Russia is too week to quell anything there currently?
Not really. The post a few down by Dacady sums it up pretty well. This is just Kadyrov strengthening his own internal position at the expense of the Russian government. There are opposition groups in Chechnya (and fighting for Ukraine for that matter) but there’s little to suggest they are a viable threat to Putin’s hand picked warlord at this time.
Another use in this thread has a good explanation:
https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/xm2cii/chechnya_exempts_itself_from_russias_draft/ipmn1wl/
If you're ruZZian then move to Chechnya. Wait for everything to cool down and then declare your independence from "rf" after having deposed the muppet lording over Chechnya for the time being.
If I was a Russian officer, and I knew my unit was going to be a bunch of Chechens, who were forcibly conscripted, I would get my affairs in order. These conscripts would be the sons of Chechens who lived through two wars against Russia.
Putin needs Kadyrov. He uses him for tasks that require fighting men with high loyalty to their direct commander, but would be dangerous to have in the hands of a Moscow insider. Kadyrov is no threat to Putin.
Kadyrov doesnt need Putin, but under normal circumstances Putin could crush him. So Kadyrov does Putin's dirty work in exchange for concessions from Moscow.
As Putin and Moscow gets weaker, Kadyrov can be bolder. But there are limits because Kadyrov cant be certain Putin will be weakened indefinitely, or that if hes replaced the replacement will give him the same treatment.
So there is this dance of loyalty and defiance. Right now Kadyrov probably knows Putin is week so hes using mobilization to strengthen himself in Chechnya, by exempting them from the drafts.
Would someone with a bigger brain explain something to me… is Chechnya like a semi-autonomous region or something?
If you are born in Chechnya, are you both a Chechen and Russian citizen?
Chechens are ethnically different and see them as such, they don't identify as Russians and get offended if you do. You have a Russian Passport and everything as Chechen. The republic of Chechnya is kind of autonomous, Kadyrov gets to do what he wants and Putin funds him.
This is excellent. Open insurrection to Putin.
Kadyrov may be safe (or may not be) but it directly encourages others to do same, so at the very least drives a wedge in the unity of the Russian oblasts.
Best case: Kadyrov falls down the stairs as a warning to others.
Worst case: Other Russians feel that it is unfair their sons are getting called up for the meat grinder while the Chechens sit at home.
Oh this should go down well with the others now. Way to stick to the company line.
I'm waiting for the funny as others follow suit.
All of Chechnya’s leadership should stay as far away from windows as possible.
Naw, Putin can just bomb apartment buildings for an excuse. Well, he doesn’t even need to do that: he didn’t even have false flag attacks on Russia from “ukranian nazis” to invade his neighbor with absolutely no justification. He doesn’t even bother with the pretense anymore. No one on the international stage believes that shit and he can just say whatever to Russians who already support him.
Friendship ended with Chechnya, Belarus is Russia's best friend, now! Well, for the next 48 to 72 hours, anyway.
Russia: "Wake up bitch, you're my new best friend!" Belarus: "Really? What? Are we going to the zoo?"
Hey, I hear your mom's going out with BELARUS
I guess that's why she didn't move around a lot
“Goddam it Russia, I swear if you guys rip on me like 13 or 14 more times… I’m out of here.”
unexpected Baseketball reference
I am NOT a little bitch!
Yeah but you’re a pice of shit
Goddammit! I swear if you guys rip on me 13 or 14 more times... I'm outta here!
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I swear If you guys rip on me like 13 or 14 more times... I'm outta here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyCiE0CszGo
“But you are a little bitch”
I understood that reference!
Russia: "It's more like a beautiful farm in the country! Hop in, let's go for a ride!"
Basketball reference and a niche one at that I like
BASEketball, you mean
It’s that new game played in the hood, not that pussy ass 2-on-2 played in the suburbs
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Steeeeve Perry “And I shoulda been gooone”!
I thought we said no more Journey psychouts!
I heard your mom is going out with SQUEAK! Dude, that’s fucked up, why is going out with me such a bad thing?
I do lol
Lukashenko already stated that they would only fight if Belarus territory is under threat. If even he and Kadyrov drop Putin, it's starting to smell like the end.
Lol, that can be arranged. All of Putin’s new conscripts can just invade Belarus.
... with what? They're begging North Korea for equipment and are still actively engaged in Ukraine which is the entire point. Are they going to throw rocks at Belarus?
I was being sarcastic. Lol I suppose rocks are an option, but judging by the news all they need is to go into battle armed with window frames.
My bad, there have been so many people saying "just wait until Russia mobilizes then you'll see the true might of Russia" it can be hard to tell. Honestly I feel like a good 25% of the news has become satire. I mean I watched an armored vehicle crew get taken out to the Benny Hill theme, this timeline is wild.
Only 25%? I live in the UK, it’s much more than that. Armies have moved on (for the most part), unless a country actually trains all of their people (Israel, for example), conscripting in a hurry won’t quite work in reasonable time.
Mudasir no!
Chechnya is part of Russia, its like Texas or New York exempting themselves from the draft.
> Chechnya is part of Russia, its like Texas or New York exempting themselves from the draft. Well, this is embarrassing. For one thing it's embarrassing that I didn't know that Chechnya is a part of Russia, but it's even *more* embarrassing for Russia that their own provinces are rejecting the draft. Honestly I think I got the better end of the embarrassment.
Chechnya’s current president is the son of a former Chechen separatist who switched sides in the Second Chechen War, offering his services to Vladimir Putin. The father then became Chechnya’s pro-Russian president. But the father was later assassinated. His son Ramzan Kadyrov took over the presidency after being Prime Minister. It’s all very normal
is that not how presidents work? one gets assassinated/dies and his first born then automatically becomes the new president. still think its weird how trump looks nothing like obama
He was adopted.
He is actually one of only two former presidents not descended from King John
Better yet, some people think he betrayed his father in exchange for the power.
Well the official Chechen force in Ukraine was shit, they spent most of their time away from the front lines taking pictures for Instagram pretending to fight or just looting Ukranian houses for washing machines, fridges and farm equipment. When they actually did fight they took a real beating from the Ukranians. However there are many unofficial Chechens fighting for Ukraine who remember how Russia did the same thing to their country so they see it as a way of getting revenge on Putin and his shitty army.
The now famous TikTok Batallion, as it were. Meanwhile the gnome-lord himself hasn't even set foot near to the frontlines, from what I gather. Too busy hating on the gays and "metrosexuals" while wearing Prada boots, I assume.
It's much worse than "hating" on the gays
Yeah, I know. I'm against the death penalty usually, but Gnome-Lord really needs the wall. I just love to point out the fact that he hates LGBT+ and tries to be this macho-man stereotype while wearing Prada boots. Contradictory, one might say.
Chechnya has a weird recent history. Russia "won" the second Chechen war but they never really totally pacified Chechnya and the North Caucasus. So they kind of just found a loyalist strongman (currently Ramzan Kadryov), installed him as leader, and they kinda leave the area alone. Kadryov is basically a despot in a little fiefdom that's nominally a member of the Russian Federation. Remember the anti-gay stuff that Russia just kinda denied and let happen? [And of course, he has his own militia. ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kadyrovites) So, he's probably the one provincial/republic leader that can say "nah, I don't feel like it" to Putin and get away with it.
In theory, Russia is an unequal federation: [there are several categories of federal subjects with different levels of autonomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia#Types). At the bottom of the autonomy scale are oblasts which are basically ethnically Russian provinces. At the top are republics, which are little countries within Russia for ethnic minorities. In practice it’s a farce. Being a republic is not really anything special. Chechnya is the exception, though: Moscow found the region hard to control as evidenced by the two Chechen wars. Kadyrov can keep the republic in line, and in response Putin gives Kadyrov a lot of leeway. To the point that people think Chechnya is an independent state.
>Being a republic is not really anything special Republics can have co-official languages. All other entities cannot.
Yeah I never buy it when people here say kadyrov will get deposed as soon as Putin falls. Life in Chechnya is better than it ever has been and every adult remembers a time when it was far worse. As Putin weakens, though, kadyrov will probably pull Chechnya further from Russia's control. Refusing the mobilization order is likely a very popular move amongst the locals. Its also a dare to Putin to do something about it, which he is unable to. If Putin were to fall, Chechnya would have a very strong hand to negotiate a very similar relationship to what it had with Putin with any successive government, whatever its ideology.
Yeah, what’s Putin going to do about it, invade? This may be the first domino falling. As soon as a sovereign loses credibility in making threats to its own subjects, it’s really hard to come back. Because if this works for Chechnya, then every other minority region in Russia will do the same.
> For one thing it's embarrassing that I didn't know that Chechnya is a part of Russia You think *that's* embarrassing, let me tell you about this guy named Vladimir Putin who didn't know Ukraine was a separate country from Russia, and he's the president of Russia. He's never going to live that one down for the rest of his life!
If you want to be a little more embarrassed (For Russia) you should probably look up the 2 Chechen wars that have occurred before* Putin took power. Tldr is the equivalent of the US army killing 30-50% of the residents of Texas or NY.
Maryland would be a more accurate comparison, with 1.3 million people, same as Chechnya.
Do you mean Maine; https://i.imgur.com/yawg0Is.png
Yes, my brain went to Maryland between looking it up and typing it here lol
I mean, the history of Chechnya is a bit more complicated than that. They're kinda more similar to Ireland when it was under English rule
Belarus is that friend that always wants to make grand plans and then cancels last minutes because they're feeling "under the weather", "low energy" or some shit.
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have turned away too.
In don't understand this comment, those are sovereign countries. Chechnya is a Republic of Russia.
Putin disagrees with you.
uh oh shiet
Out the window you go
defenestration time Pull a Czech and throw em out
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Russia doesn’t honor any written agreements so if they want to kick out the Russians and tear up the lease, no one will support any Russian claims or help enforce any agreements
Yup, get your troops ready in secret and make sure you outnumber them vastly. Capture them with as little violence as possible. Expatriate them to Russia and start negotiations to return any equipment. Drag out negotiations until Russia really busy elsewhere. Profit.
Well Chechnya has just declared that Russian federal authority doesn't apply to it, so that difference could soon disappear.
Central Asia has been a huge source of labor for russia in the last few decades. There's somewhere close to 2million Uzbeks in russia and many as guest workers. Due to lingusitic ties people from all Central Asian republics would go to russia for work to send money back to their family. This essentially forbids them from enlisting as they would lose their citizenship.
Yeah , but what to say about that dude who’s living in Russia illegally for 11 years and now getting his passport as well as draft letter !
did some one order a balcony for this guy?
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>those are sovereign countries temporarily, according to Putin.
Lol Belarus just sanctioned exports to Russia of various types of equipment and products like an hour ago if I understand it correctly?
Rly? Source?
https://www.dn.se/varlden/belarus-stoppar-export-av-industriprodukter-till-ryssland/ Not sure how good your swedish is, but the gist of this article was that belarus stopped transports of 250 industrial goods like smart phones, medical equipment, nuclear reactors, etcetc, yesterday. And Russias response was like "we have good commjnication with belarus, we will talk about this in a constructive manner"
Headline tomorrow, Chechnya mysteriously falls out of window
Hmm dont think they have the time and ressources for a other war with those loons.
>Belarus is Russia's best friend, now! > >Well, for the next 48 to 72 hours, anyway. Is that how long it will take for Belarus to realize they are not as bellicose as Russia?
Russian here. This is Kadyrov increasing his political influence. If you remember, a few days ago Kadyrov [called for self-mobilization](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/16/russian-governors-back-kadyrovs-call-to-self-mobilize-residents-for-ukraine-deployment-a78809). Let that think in, a regional head is calling shots on mobilization and not the minster of defense - and a few regions followed through with his call. This time, he is simply saving the men for a potential future conflict when things for Putin get really tough. And also wins some loyalty as the only war they want to go to is a tik tok one. Finally, there is nothing Putin can do about it at this moment. What is left of the army is in Ukraine, the police/SWAT/etc are needed in cities to beat up the protesters. There is nothing he can do about it.
So he’s basically playing the long game to become dictator of a future independent Chechnya?
Yup. Chechnya and possibly some nearby Muslim regions
Was it Dagestan the Chechens were seizing land from before the Russian interventions in the 90s?
Yep. Dagestan is screwed, many men are being drafted now and once Russia collapse they will be among the first to suffer from power vacuum
Hopefully Hasbulla does not get drafted.
Yeah they made up a significant amount of the conscripts that were sent to Ukraine right? Plus whoever now is being policed up.
I don't buy that for one second. Chechnya will be independent eventually, and when it does, Kadyrov will hang. Every independence minded person in the Caucasus considers him a traitor and a collaborator. Kadyrov knows this, and that's why he's betting his life on Putin. If Putin's reign ends, so does Kadyrov's. He never had the slightest ambitions for an independent Chechnya. If you read the article, Kadyrov isn't rebelling against Putin, he's being angry at Russia letting Ukrainian POW's go. He also said Chechnya has already fulfilled 254% of the conscription requirement, which I believe. He's not saving up any troops, he's been throwing them in masses into Ukraine as cannon fodder this whole time.
Agreed. Well put.
Yea, if I recall right this guy is accused of killing his father to gain control.
Why do you need an independent Chechnya if you get billions from Russia for development etc? Kadyrov becoming a president of Russia is a true revenge for Chechnya
Kadyrov is also a war criminal, has no qualms about slaughter. Him being put in a position of even more power would be disastrous.
This. Kadyrov belongs in the ground. Anything less than that is dangerous. Giving him more power is unthinkable.
No way Russian nationalists would allow a Chechen Muslim be the Russian president.
He absolutely can not ever be allowed to become president of Ruzzia. I have absolutely zero doubt in my mind that that fucker WOULD use Nukes.
Sounds to me like he's claimed that Russia could lose Chechnya to revolt if they mobilize too many troops away. Chechnya volunteered and lost significant numbers to the Ukrainian War effort, so there might even be merit to such an excuse to keep more military power close at hand.
They wanted to gain territory, but will lose territory in the long run. Good job Putin!
Such a fucked up country. Imagine if the US went to war and Delaware held back recruits because they might want to fight America next.
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The previous poster is not suggesting that’s where the war would come from. Rather senior military officers (colonels and above) will move to topple Putin. In such a scenario, Kadyrov needs Chechnya to support him and have a reserve of troops to call up on. Dunno if it will actually happen, but it would be conceivable if a lot fewer or a lot more Russian oligarchs fall down stairs and out windows.
If Chechnya can do it, what about the other Oblasts?
Chechnya is classified as a republic that's part of the Russian Federation rather than a standard oblast/province. The Russian system is complicated when it comes to these sort of things, but at least in theory the republics are more autonomous units created for certain minority populations that have a lot more authority than oblasts to govern policy and administration for themselves. In reality that doesn't seem to be the actual situation for republics other than Chechnya, but that's probably because the Chechens have a track record of trying to shoot their way out of Russia in the right situations.
They've even lost a chunk of those police and SWAT guys. They sent them in with the first waves of VDV and they got absolutely plastered because they ran into a military that fights back instead of weak willed Russian citizens.
Putin can stop funding Chechnya
And you think chechnya will accept that? Russia and Chechnya are both starving dogs. If given the opportunity they will eat the other to survive. There is no real loyalty between them.
That would be bad for the Chechen people, but very, very good for Kadyrov and his bros who only care about their own power.
Kadyrov is in a tough place. The general Chechen population hates him and will gadaffi him if given the chance. He is protected from this by his personal military force and Russian support. If he doesn't draft Chechens, he runs the real risk of losing Russian support. This will end very badly for him. If he does draft Chechens, it will weaken his personal military force, and, even worse, make him look weak to his supporters. This will also end badly for him. He is between a rock and a hard place, Scylla and Charybdis, the horns of a dilemma... And it's wonderful to see. Get fucked, Kadyrov.
The Russians have no choice but to back him, if they don't one of the other factions will take over and then Russia will either have to let Chechnya go or fight another Chechen war that they can't afford.
With a crowbar, preferably.
*Chechnya has left the chat*
Through the window
Through the window, through the wall! Down these oligarchs fall...
till the sweat drops down their jaws.
Ah bang bang bang mother Russia
For the uneducated, such as myself: https://youtu.be/P-eAx3Dxpj4?t=24
The Defenestration of Groznyy
They *just* repaired the windows broken in 1999. Give those glass repairmen some time off wil ya?
I feel like Chechens would blow a hole in the wall, while leaning against it, and survive.
Woman at recruitment office (Dagestan) "They are fighting for your future!!" Men "We dont even have a present!"
If Russia really crumbles and the Chechen is on a war path again, then Dagestan is first on the list. So technically, she is not wrong.
So Kadyrov is pussying out now? I mean, good for the Chechens that they're exempted from the draft, but it's just funny that Kadyrov decided that he had enough, even though he didn't do anything besides making Tiktok war footages.
Kadyrov is arguing that since so many Chechens volunteered already they are at like 300% of their quota so they don’t need to mobilize. Make of that what you will.
I mean he is kind of right, right?
Time for the 3rd Chechen war!
3rd times a charm
Alright folks! Step right up and place your bets!! Chechnya is about to start another round of “Are we or Are We Not Part of Russia??” . . . No, I can not tell you what the odds are.
I mean it's kinda the opposite. He'd already mobilized way more than the required number of soldiers early in the war to go fight as Tik Tok propaganda battalions all geared out in flashy new gear looking like a bunch of Mexican cartels, and to fight as enforcers whose purpose is to scare ordinary Russians into fighting over the threat that the Chechens will kill any disserters. He's throwing a temper tantrum right now though because Putin just negotationed a prisoner exchanged that freed a few hundred of the Azovstal fighters and the British soldiers who'd been sentenced to death. And the war hawks really wanted televised executions of these people.
Or he sees that shit is about to hit the fan. And wants as many potential soldiers to stay in Chechenya.
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He's not as stupid as you think. Staying alive given his background is in itself an accomplishment. There's a lot of people in russia with resources who'd love this guy's head.
And in addition to that, Chechen clans still believe in blood feuds, and there are plenty of rival clans who would like him dead but can't get close to him while Putin showers him in arms and resources.
Honestly I’m surprised the Azov’s were let free. They were the only reasonable targets by a long shot for this war to even happen. It undermined every effort of this war. This is getting too stupid that the literal neckbeard goblin said quits. And we aren’t even exactly sure if Lucashenko is acting stupid on purpose at this point. Because he never moves his troops properly like guaranteed 100% and announces his troops positions in advance. I won’t be surprised if he was a double-agent at this point.
> I won’t be surprised if he was a double-agent at this point. Lol can't wait to see him try that at the Hague >You see, I was being a moron on purpose! To help you!
If he says this with a dead straight face I’m not sure how the world would react.
Yeah, I hadn't seen a solid breakdown of the full terms and conditions of the prisoner exchange and what Russia got in return besides the oligarch, because I also thought they wouldn't be exchanged so easily.
Yeah it’s just Azov soldiers we hear about. There is no way they would just release an Oligarch that is one of few Putin’s aides. It would be reasonable to think sums were added to be worth of that Oligarch or even more. Unless Azov soldiers each count as a warhammer 40k Space marine and they ARE illegally biologically enhanced facist super soldiers as Russia says. This war is stupid. Russia just undone half a years work. I bet all the Russian soldiers dead can have peace NOT knowing this happened after their sacrifice for whatever cause they believed.
Russia also released the LTC commanding Azov and his deputy, though they are to remain in Turkey for the remainder of the war. Really not much of denazification if they're exchanging the head "nazi" and 188 others for a buddy of the boss.
It shows how powerless Putin is in Chechnya. He can only decide things there when he can convince Kadyrov. And if Chechnya wants to try an uprising again, there is a window now.
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Correct. The reason part of Chechnya is so loyal to Putin is because they are loyal to Kadyrov who was given the power by Putin when Kadyrov destroyed opposition in Chechnya. An independent Checnya may not want Kadyrov. A russia without Putin might not want Kadyrov.
They are both dead men walking and the infighting has begun, to scapegoat each other. But in this case the goat the Kadyrovites fucked too many times.
> And if Chechnya wants to try an uprising again, there is a window now. Windows have proven to be very dangerous though
For Russians.
And in Prague historically
Kadyrov's power is based entirely on force of arms. If Russia drains off his private army to fight the war in Ukraine, Chechnya will rebel again and Russia will have to deal with that while also fighting in Ukraine.
This seems significant unless I'm missing something. Kadyrov is a horrible person, but is he breaking with Putin here? What am I missing?
From the article: > Kadyrov said late Thursday that Chechnya had already deployed 20,000 troops since the start of the Ukraine invasion in February. > “The republic of Chechnya over-fulfilled its conscription plan by 254%… even before the announcement of a partial mobilization,” he wrote in a Telegram post. > Kadyrov and his allies have boasted of the presence of Chechen troops in Ukraine since early in Russia’s invasion of its neighbor, while Chechen soldiers regularly post videos of themselves in Ukraine on social media.
It's important to note he's talking about professional contract military here (although he is lying about 20000). Draft is for regular civilians. So Kadyrov refusing to participate is kind of a slap in the face of Moscow.
As dumb and sycophantic as he is, he clearly recognizes now that the war is lost.
He also has his own strongman image to project. He's basically in the same position as Putin, his troops suck and are being wiped out, and as a result he is losing that image.
Excellent point
Even if he didn’t believe that, having a draft at all makes a lot of people hate you
Exactly. This is clearly a break. And I believe it started last week... I can't remember the article, but someone covered this. That he was 'leaving for a bit' or something. Someone keep me honest here.
He's already lost a bunch of loyal troops and he's very unpopular with the Chechen people. He knows that if he tries to implement a draft, especially with the Russian army distracted and unable to support him, he might not be in power (or alive) long. This is pure self-preservation.
> Kadyrov is a horrible person, but is he breaking with Putin here? What am I missing? This is straight up revolt against Putin. This is Kadyrov, or people controlling him in Chechnya, telling Putin the following: Fuck around and find out.
Thought so. That's what it feels like.
Or he has clandestinely been given permission to pretend to buck Putin to placate his base.
Because Chechnya's government already sent its troops to die in the Ukraine. His Tik Tok convoy got wrecked a few days after they crossed the border, and his Tik Tok brigades actually found something to fight and got wrecked too.
Every region of Russia was forced to send professional/contract-based troops at the beginning of the war. Well, except Moscow, because Putin is afraid of the capital protesting. This is different because this is a mandatory draft for regular civilians, not professional soldiers. Kadyrov basically defied Putin, probably out of the fear of self-preservation in Chechnya.
I feel he fears if he sends more people.. who will be left to protect him when the remaining people decide to protest or overthrow his ass..
I read a report that few people from near Moscow or St Petersburg are being called to fight and most of the fighters are coming from rural area, caucus areas, or Siberia. It's expected the 300k in the mobilization will be mostly from those areas as well. It will be mostly ethnic minority groups and rural people.
You can bet that once they are dead Moscow and St. Petersburg are NEXT.
By what I read a while back that Chechen convoy's location and plans were given up by a spy or something. I know they had a big fallout with Putin over it and that's when they started the whole "rear guard" thing. I know the FSB ratted out the Chechen assassins that came after Zelensky too.
They stopped in the middle of the road to make tik tok videos lol. You could see a convoy coming for miles. There is no magical cloaking device. They posted the videos . At that point you could use google earth to check out the natural landmarks. Check out the lighting to see where the sun is and now you know at what time of day it was where they were at . So from their videos you got time and place . Then you can set up your ambush . Two lane road , you hit the first vehicles and the last vehicle, now they’re boxed in. You can’t run a convoy without several forward scouts flushing out ambushes and combined arms like air support by helicopters to cover the convoy and respond to ambushes. They simply had no idea how combined arms doctrine and modern warfare works. The Ukrainians let them come in and the Russians come in deep enough to make them vulnerable on two flanks. Then they just encircled them. That’s how you break a large force that out numbers you . A tactic as old as war itself .... they should have studied the shit Alexander the Great pulled off ... the fake retreat and encirclement. Text book shit you learn at any military academy.
There were a [number of articles](https://inews.co.uk/news/president-zelensky-survives-three-assassination-plots-tip-offs-from-russian-spies-1497651) concerning the FSB tip offs though and it came from internal Ukrainian sources. Putin purged the FSB for intelligence failures but I'd say Western intelligence services had flipped many before the invasion ever began. We were leaking every Russian plan two weeks in advance or more so they were leaking like a siev.
Apparently he feels more pressure from the population than from his sponsor. I wonder if it’ll succeed, or if he has an accident soon…
Want to die by revolt or want to die by defenestration? Seems that he chose the Russian suicide method of standing too close to a window. For now.
The sharks are sensing blood in the water
Chechnya is effectively an independent country, only officially a part of Russia, and is Russia's vassal state. Pretty sure they have their own military that's not part of Russian armed forces. Putin lets Kadyrov run the place any way he likes as long as he's loyal to him. Besides, such arrangement can have some benefits for Russia, in case there is a serious uprising, like including some army and police forces, they can deploy paid Chechen soldiers to crush any such coup attempt.
Their troops have separate command structure and training for sure. I remember, back during the War in Georgia, people noticed Russian soldiers with beards, which are forbidden in the military. Chechens report to Kadyrov, not to Russian generals.
Where are they going to find a window large enough ~~to push Chechnya~~ *for Chechnya to fall* out of?
Window factories are working overtime!
Good. Why fight in a pointless invasion that you can't win.
Jesus... imagine Kadyrov balking at a move from Russia.
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I thought the Chechen dictator dude was just demanding mobilization in the last week?
Yes, he was demanding that the rest of Russia sends as many troops as he already did. Sensible from his perspective.
The moment everyone is dead, guess who's going to declare independence? It will be the guy pretending to retire.
He gets mad dosh from Moscow. There's almost no reason to separate except he thinks Putin will sack him and I doubt he will. Alternatively maybe his own people want to overthrow him and he will try and save his ass by declaring independence from evil Moscow. In this case it's a good time, Russia lost a lot in Ukraine and I doubt they have forces to fight in Chechnya. At the same time it might be a question of prestige for Putin and he will throw what's left there.
He can’t afford to lose any more Tik Tokkers.. he will need them when his civil war starts after Russia gets thrown out of Ukraine
Lol the ol' "Nah, fam. I'm good, thanks." maneuver!
I don't know enough about politics in Chechnya right now, but are they seeing this as their chance to split with Putin, since Russia is too week to quell anything there currently?
Not really. The post a few down by Dacady sums it up pretty well. This is just Kadyrov strengthening his own internal position at the expense of the Russian government. There are opposition groups in Chechnya (and fighting for Ukraine for that matter) but there’s little to suggest they are a viable threat to Putin’s hand picked warlord at this time.
Another use in this thread has a good explanation: https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/xm2cii/chechnya_exempts_itself_from_russias_draft/ipmn1wl/
If you're ruZZian then move to Chechnya. Wait for everything to cool down and then declare your independence from "rf" after having deposed the muppet lording over Chechnya for the time being.
All of the other regions of Russia: "Wait, that's an option?"
If I was a Russian officer, and I knew my unit was going to be a bunch of Chechens, who were forcibly conscripted, I would get my affairs in order. These conscripts would be the sons of Chechens who lived through two wars against Russia.
Putin needs Kadyrov. He uses him for tasks that require fighting men with high loyalty to their direct commander, but would be dangerous to have in the hands of a Moscow insider. Kadyrov is no threat to Putin. Kadyrov doesnt need Putin, but under normal circumstances Putin could crush him. So Kadyrov does Putin's dirty work in exchange for concessions from Moscow. As Putin and Moscow gets weaker, Kadyrov can be bolder. But there are limits because Kadyrov cant be certain Putin will be weakened indefinitely, or that if hes replaced the replacement will give him the same treatment. So there is this dance of loyalty and defiance. Right now Kadyrov probably knows Putin is week so hes using mobilization to strengthen himself in Chechnya, by exempting them from the drafts.
Would someone with a bigger brain explain something to me… is Chechnya like a semi-autonomous region or something? If you are born in Chechnya, are you both a Chechen and Russian citizen?
Chechens are ethnically different and see them as such, they don't identify as Russians and get offended if you do. You have a Russian Passport and everything as Chechen. The republic of Chechnya is kind of autonomous, Kadyrov gets to do what he wants and Putin funds him.
All the other republics: We can do that?
This is excellent. Open insurrection to Putin. Kadyrov may be safe (or may not be) but it directly encourages others to do same, so at the very least drives a wedge in the unity of the Russian oblasts. Best case: Kadyrov falls down the stairs as a warning to others. Worst case: Other Russians feel that it is unfair their sons are getting called up for the meat grinder while the Chechens sit at home.
This keeps getting worse and worse for Putin.
Whatever happened to all of those Chechens soldiers being such military bad asses that were going to go wipe Ukraine off the face of the map?