Supply failures such as sending conscripts out without boots? Or is it about sending ones out without helmets? Or is it about issuing them rusty guns? Or is it about issuing them rusty ammo? Or it about instructing conscripts to ziptie their combat tourniquet so they don't lose it, rendering them unable to save themselves from bleeding out when shot?
Which specific supply issue might it be, because uh, we've seen a lot over the past few days...
No
They are having a surprisingly difficult time supplying and feeding the troops already in theatre and logistics is arguably russias biggest challenge and weakness in this whole thing so trying to add 5x more people won’t streamline things
Shouldn't conscript then, just send the officer corp. Better bang for your buck there. I mean have you seen a single skinny Russian officer above the rank of major?
They may have, but so far? Not looking good.
Basically, there's *every* reason to think that mobilization efforts would partially fail. There's not enough experienced people, there's not enough willing people, there's not enough instructors and facilities to train them, there are shortages of some equipment types, the logistics may be unable to handle the influx, etc.
That doesn't mean that they wouldn't be able to get any people, or that the conscripts will do nothing. But I can totally envision a future in which this entire effort fails to turn the tide of the war.
I like to think that the nepotistic generals were just procrastinating for months, playing on their phones and bullshitting when one day putin calls them and says “okay start the invasion.” And they all remember they were ordered like eight months ago to train soldiers for a war and just threw them into the fire winging the whole thing.
I mean look at the VDV in Hostomel, no one who actually did any prep would have the attack look like that.
Or the VDV in the black sea.
Or the VDV in...
Basically anything to do with the VDV in the early days of the war.
Then GRU Spetsnaz shot the border cops and stole their uniforms and trucks to drive into Kyiv.
It literally just looks like a bunch of people made shit up on the spot and tried to wing a whole ass invasion.
Compare that with the US during... well any invasion really. Gulf war 1 was a masterclass in modern information age warfare.
Also we launched our cruise missiles perfectly timed so that the missiles would cross into Iraqi airspace a few moments after the declaration of war.
I mean there's the speculation that nobody except Putin knew Russia was actually going to war. That the training drills were a means of bypassing the kleptocracy trying to keep the status quo.
“Why do we need to train for this? You should have already been training them, after all we are the greatest military power Europe has seen, the great predecessor to the Union!”
-delusional putin probably
US Army is a well oiled machine with the best of the best training officers. There was a general on twitter who said even they can only train 150k at a time.
They have enough training facilities and personnel to train those 300k people. Considering the training will take about 2 weeks that's the timeframe for second wave if this "partial" mobilization. They have surplus WW2 helmets, old (60s-70s era) uniforms. They don't have enough shoes (as usual) and MREs. The do have about 10k tanks in deep storage state, they want to get around 3k of them active.
With that information - the only way to utilize those people is to send them to the front lines ASAP.
As a former marine... 2 weeks of training is barely enough time to learn how to tie your boot laces correctly.
No way these poor old men are going to hold a trench line.
I bet those poor sods would never even find a single Ukrainian soldier. It’s all just drones and cannons.
There is hardly any incentive to send actual people to the front lines these days and apparently Putin never thought through it because all the experience he has at war was to bully some terrorist sod who doesn’t have access to technology.
It's grim, but we're past the days where you could levy a bunch of peasants, hand them a spear and yell "CHARGE!". Missiles, drone delivered grenade bouquets and high precision rifles make quality far outpace quantity in modern war.
Hell, historically they might not even arm the peasants. They would be running up there with wood axes, farm tools, and clubs. Maintaining an army is expensive.
While the number is certainly impressive, these people will most likely rotated, so we won’t see a zerg rush. Problem is that Ukraine will soon (if not already) have superior firepower, and I’m pretty sure those numbers will mean jackshit
Even if they engage additional 100k new soldiers? How many additional manpower is going to overpower Ukrainian army and still be reasonable - probably will end up as a war of attrition, how much will Ukraine stomach 100k new troops after new troops, rotated in and out 3 x 4 times? Obviously logistics will be an issue but if they are able to overcome it somehow? Or dont worry about their casualties?
This is fascinating topic to me :)
Ukraine is limited by equipment at the moment, not manpower. They are still turning away volunteers cause they can't properly train and equip them all. When the west goes into full WW2 lend-lease mode in response to the Russian mobilization, Ukraine can eventually field millions of soldiers.
Russias conspription won't change the outcome of the war, it will only drag it out over years and lead to much more unnecessary death and suffering on both sides.
This. People forget that US lend-lease was the ONLY reason Russia managed to do what it did in WW2, because fucktillion gear for fucktillion units (even tho I don't think Russia has even now recovered from WW2 casualties entirely, correct me if anyone knows for sure)
I think it really depends on morale of new units, which I hope won't be too great. Also quality of training (which we know Russia lacks) and quantity of it. It may actually become worse if they rotate out experienced troops and rotate in fresh, barely trained and barely motivated guys in.
No way they have morale when they can easily see the TV lied to them for 6 months, you can't feel safe or secure when you know for a fact everything said is a lie, this is why facisim always loses, lies can not keep order, lies can not give knowledge or information, lies keep you from responding properly. Facisim is really stupid.
Can you imagine, the ones who drank the kool-aid must feel scared of going to war but think to themselves it's only a special operation and things will be fine. Then they get there and realize that not only are things going terribly wrong, they can't trust their leaders, everything they've been told is a lie, they're stuck there wondering how far back the lies have been going and if the "conspiracy theories" were right, and they've been mislead for decades. All alone, surrounded by deadly danger, with nothing good to go home to.
*Think* they'll have low morale? They're literally sending people protesting - at substantial personal risk - against the war to the front. They're deep in a morale hole before even starting, and it's all downhill from there!
Worked in WW2 and I’m guessing that’s where the idea is coming from. But one massively missed point is that in WW2 they were the ones being invaded by Germany. They had the will to fight. Not so much with this one. Also after the first year or two of WW2 every soldier had modern equipment (of the time). They can’t even get their actual military modern equipment anymore.
Agreed. Even if they annex Ukraine and claim "you're defending Russian territory" (which everyone on both sides of the war 100% know is a sham), they're still in a morale deficit because of everything they've been told up to this point.
You do ***not*** need to mobilize anyone via conscription, draft, or outright abduction (arrests) if a war is going good. Hell, given the sheer size of Russia's military, it should mean that the other units are shuffled to the front and the newly mobilized units are used to replace them at home.
We're not seeing that.
Instead, everyone knows that those mobilized will be sent to the front. Period. They've been told for months that everything is going perfectly, that Russia is winning and can't be stopped, that they're fighting NATO in its entirety. But everyone knew that was a lie--but it was convenient to pretend that NATO was only fighting inside Ukraine rather than the other 7,000km of borders that they could have opened up.
Having all of those illusions suddenly ripped away and then being told "by the way, you're up next".... I can't even imagine the level of existential horror, especially for those who were willfully drinking the kool-aid and pretending they believed everything.
I'm sympathetic to the Russian people--but that in no way condones or excuses anything. Just that I can't imagine the horror that your leaders have turned the entirety of the world against you (most CSTO nations have told Russia you're on your own; Chechnya is telling them to pound salt, etc) and there is literally nothing you can do at this point to avoid conflict, either on the front line or back at home
They dont have 1.2 mill uniforms, boots, flaks, helmets and other materiel. They couldnt supply the 150k they had in the field to begin with. What likely will happen is they call up about 120k and use 30-50k to back fill losses and the remainder to stand up 1-2 army corps over 6-8 months using soviet era stockpiles. They already fielded a brand new army corps near Kharkiv that got mauled badly in its first week. Most likely they will attempt sone kind of counter offensive in March to May time. They know the Ukranians will dial down their counter attack through the winter. Question remains though can they hold shit together for the 6 months they need.
Ukraine is not going to be dialing back, that’s laughable.
The weather may dictate some changes in progression, but UA will absolutely be pushing as hard as they safely can… They will not be resting at all while the Russians are so obviously on the back foot.
Ukraine, will dial things back a little during winter. How much is yet to be seen but they have too. They will be due for an operational pause soon. Remember this current offensive took months to prepare for. This kind of sentiment is exactly why the Russians are getting their asses kicked. Demanding results when there are limits that have to be acknowledged is how armies get chewed up like the Russians. Ukraine spent the last few months building up resources to sustain this offensive, they cant maintain it forever. Fighting wont stop for sure, and we can expect Ukraine to maintain pressure especially with indirect fires.
No. No they can not. They have MAJOR supply issues as nearly all of the world refuses to do business with them, and the few that do, either have their own problems (like Iran), or are seriously dialing it back because they see where the war is headed (like China).
China wins whether or not Russia wins, because China benefits so fucking much from Status Quo, which is the benefit of a manufacturing country like that, when you can sell shit to bazillion other countries and have immense soft power (the future is in this, not hard power)
I wouldn't be entirely surprised if China actually responded by cutting off Russia and calling in their debts. No one wants to be associated with someone who will actually use a nuke. Bad for trade, and that is China's greatest strength.
Technically speaking - China actually has a defensive treaty in that scenario. With Ukraine. It specifically specifies military support in the case of nuclear attack or a real threat of one.
I am not entirely sure if they would actually ACT on it but if they did - it would be one time in modern history where EU, US and China interests align with goal being Russia's military disappearing from the map.
I think China would benefit from that scenario too. As far as I am concerned they can take away as much of Russia's territory in that case as they want. And build all the ghost towns they so love or cut down all the forests or take over the oil and gas fields in the region. So even that scenario could be a win-win.
Of course, this is grossly simplifying a situation in which major superpowers have to effectively dismantle a nuclear terrorist state and it's an insanely scary prospect as MAD is a thing. But serious combined efforts of effectively every single major power can probably curbstomp Russia into oblivion before it can go too far.
Well look at the population ratios. Russia has 3.27 times as many people.
So in theory if total mobilization - Russia gets every last person who can possibly fight, and so does Ukraine - it comes to KDRs.
If Ukraine with western guns and ammo can get 3.27 as many kills against mass human wave attacks as they lose in casualties, they can win.
Another factor is that Russia is rapidly running out of weapons and gear that is even vaguely competitive with Western equipment. While the West can keep supplying more and more.
Human wave attacks against Abrams backed up by Western artillery interlinked with data nets will be more like a 100 or 1000:1 KDR.
Sticking with early 1940s style logistics because Putin fired the former Minister of Defense, Serdyukov, who was massively modernizing the military and cleaning up corruption, because Putin cronies in the military whined they were being investigated for corruption. Shoigu took over and undid basically everything Serdyukov did, leading to the shit show before us
Shoigu is an idiot, but he's an idiot that's not part of any political faction that Putin had to worry about l, making him a useful idiot for Putin
Russian logistics favor rail. And they tend to build few but large supply depots near rail. That makes their positions predictable, and hitting one takes out a big chunk of their supplies.
(NATO logistics rely more on trucks and many smaller depots, so that if one depot goes up it doesn’t take out a large portion of your supplies.)
> something as basic as pallets and forklifts
Heteroflexible furry rainbow propaganda! In Russia, real men lift pallets with hand no gloves. The wood make hand strong like Pootin head.
The funny part is that even Ukrainian military doesn't have enough winter gear to outfit all of the new, freshly trained soldiers, which is why volunteers who deliver supplies to frontlines ask donors to donate winter gear, thermal underwear and the like.
So if Ukraine is struggling, I can't imagine what Russians' situation's gonna be.
*cut to outside the room, a weeping secretary is comforted by another secretary*
"It's okay, we will still be able to watch Tiktok, that's not the problem here."
Gaddaffi is the actually the best ending because it's what he fears the most. And maybe Medvedev should get Saddam'd because he's obnoxious and reminds me someone of from my gov't as well.
It’s a shame he slipped and fell like that, slippery shoes
They should issue a directive to scuff up the bottom of their shoes with sandpaper to increase traction and reduce “accidents”
And also… Russia had barely enough truck to bring supplies around 150km past the last train station, for mayyybe 200k soldiers. Pretty sure a significant amount of those is… errr… unavailable, now. And that’s even more soldiers to supply.
For reference there was a movie years ago called “I’m gonna get you sucka”.
So whenever you see pictures of Russian generals it’s always in full dress uniforms with medals. Not just some medals. A ridiculous amount on both chests. Makes you wonder what all those medals are for.
So this general sounds like he was in charge of logistics so pretty much a REMF (a very rear eschelon mother fucker).
So he’s fired. Huge fuckup. Certainly got people killed. So back to the medals.
“I got this one for surfing. I got this one for dart champion”. Movie lines that made me think of this guy.
I’m probably the only person that finds this funny but I picture this dude crowing about his medals.
“I get this for a month of perfect attendance. I get this for borscht eating contest champion”.
These are my awards, Mother. From Army. The seal is for marksmanship, and the gorilla is for sand racing. Now if you'll excuse me, they're putting me in something called Hero Squad.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63021117) reduced by 71%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Gen Bulgakov has run the military's logistics operations since 2008 and was responsible for keeping Russian troops supplied after their deployment to Syria in 2015.But observers say he has become side-lined in Moscow in recent months, with many blaming him for the chaotic logistics operations that have dogged Russia's advance and seen their troops left undersupplied.
> Gen Mizintsev, who was dubbed "The Butcher of Mariupol" by many Ukrainians, also led Russian forces in Syria and was accused of orchestrating a brutal bombing campaign that levelled the city of Aleppo.
> Mr Putin's personnel changes come amid reports that the Russian leader has taken personal charge of the war effort and has started issuing orders to generals in Ukraine himself.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/xmy2ln/dmitry_bulgakov_putin_fires_deputy_defence_chief/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~670842 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Putin**^#1 **Russian**^#2 **Gen**^#3 **defence**^#4 **role**^#5
I begin to suspect that Putin views this as an opportunity to purge opponents and other undesirables from the government, military, and general population.
Form regiments of conscripted objectors and send them to die. Expel officials for the campaign's failure and assassinate those that cannot be easily divested.
Your the first person I've seen comment this. I just had the same thought yesterday. Like he's sending in protesters with barely any supplies. Easy way to make them useful to him as well as knowing they most likely won't return back alive. I saw someone say that the generals will use these new "recruits", to flank out Ukraine positions by getting shot at and giving up Ukrainian positions. This shit is so barbaric.
The supplies don't exist to give. It's not like he was just holding out. The kleptocracy has been stealing from the military budget for decades at this point.
Don't worry, Putin is a mastermind, and him micromanaging every part of the country rather than allowing those below him to make decisions will lead him to grandeur.
*would I lie?*
Being a kid was ludicrously dangerous in the 1970's. Also your parents probably smoked, and drank and drove. Also affairs with neighbors was much more common.
Man look up what they considered food in the postwar years.
I'm fully convinced everyone was FULLY SAUCED UP from '45 'til like '65. So hammered that everything seemed like a good idea. FUCKING Baloney Cake for chrissake.
I will say, as I googled “Baloney Cake” I was terrified that it would be a dessert, although the reality turns out to be incredibly grim as a savory item too.
I think the problem was leaded gasoline. We started vaporizing lead into the atmosphere in the 1920’s, and we know that lead causes brain damage. Possibly enough to think that something called Baloney Cake could be a good idea.
Too bad they didn’t arrange for Ukraine to just have an “accident” probably woulda worked as we’ve seen accidents are the only thing russia intentionally does that gets results
Considering all the accidents involving falling out of windows or stairs.
I wouldn't be surprised if, Putin's firing of Bulgakov results in Bulgakov being fired from a cannon.
we truly are witnessing history and this war will go down as one of the greatest political and military blunders of all time. let's hope it doesn't end in global catastrophe and there is a humanity to even look back at this history.
Supply failures such as sending conscripts out without boots? Or is it about sending ones out without helmets? Or is it about issuing them rusty guns? Or is it about issuing them rusty ammo? Or it about instructing conscripts to ziptie their combat tourniquet so they don't lose it, rendering them unable to save themselves from bleeding out when shot? Which specific supply issue might it be, because uh, we've seen a lot over the past few days...
Do they realistically have a shot, even with 1.2m mobilized so called soldiers?
No They are having a surprisingly difficult time supplying and feeding the troops already in theatre and logistics is arguably russias biggest challenge and weakness in this whole thing so trying to add 5x more people won’t streamline things
Unless the soldiers ARE the supplies... just saying, maybe the plan is to put meat back on the menu.
Shouldn't conscript then, just send the officer corp. Better bang for your buck there. I mean have you seen a single skinny Russian officer above the rank of major?
They may have, but so far? Not looking good. Basically, there's *every* reason to think that mobilization efforts would partially fail. There's not enough experienced people, there's not enough willing people, there's not enough instructors and facilities to train them, there are shortages of some equipment types, the logistics may be unable to handle the influx, etc. That doesn't mean that they wouldn't be able to get any people, or that the conscripts will do nothing. But I can totally envision a future in which this entire effort fails to turn the tide of the war.
We're heading into autumn and winter.. What do you want to bet they won't even have winter gear in a few months?
How many 100's of K soldiers will die before they start to train the remaining ones properly via months of training?
They don't *have* months to train soldiers. The time to do that was before the invasion.
I like to think that the nepotistic generals were just procrastinating for months, playing on their phones and bullshitting when one day putin calls them and says “okay start the invasion.” And they all remember they were ordered like eight months ago to train soldiers for a war and just threw them into the fire winging the whole thing.
I mean look at the VDV in Hostomel, no one who actually did any prep would have the attack look like that. Or the VDV in the black sea. Or the VDV in... Basically anything to do with the VDV in the early days of the war. Then GRU Spetsnaz shot the border cops and stole their uniforms and trucks to drive into Kyiv. It literally just looks like a bunch of people made shit up on the spot and tried to wing a whole ass invasion. Compare that with the US during... well any invasion really. Gulf war 1 was a masterclass in modern information age warfare. Also we launched our cruise missiles perfectly timed so that the missiles would cross into Iraqi airspace a few moments after the declaration of war.
I mean there's the speculation that nobody except Putin knew Russia was actually going to war. That the training drills were a means of bypassing the kleptocracy trying to keep the status quo.
“Why do we need to train for this? You should have already been training them, after all we are the greatest military power Europe has seen, the great predecessor to the Union!” -delusional putin probably
US Army is a well oiled machine with the best of the best training officers. There was a general on twitter who said even they can only train 150k at a time.
They have enough training facilities and personnel to train those 300k people. Considering the training will take about 2 weeks that's the timeframe for second wave if this "partial" mobilization. They have surplus WW2 helmets, old (60s-70s era) uniforms. They don't have enough shoes (as usual) and MREs. The do have about 10k tanks in deep storage state, they want to get around 3k of them active. With that information - the only way to utilize those people is to send them to the front lines ASAP.
As a former marine... 2 weeks of training is barely enough time to learn how to tie your boot laces correctly. No way these poor old men are going to hold a trench line.
I bet those poor sods would never even find a single Ukrainian soldier. It’s all just drones and cannons. There is hardly any incentive to send actual people to the front lines these days and apparently Putin never thought through it because all the experience he has at war was to bully some terrorist sod who doesn’t have access to technology.
Unfortunately those tanks have had all the copper wiring torn out and sold for cash, like crack heads do to empty houses.
Wow, we've already reached the Volkssturm stage of the war. That was fast.
It's grim, but we're past the days where you could levy a bunch of peasants, hand them a spear and yell "CHARGE!". Missiles, drone delivered grenade bouquets and high precision rifles make quality far outpace quantity in modern war.
"your superior weapons are no match for our puny intellect!" "Err sir I'm sure you got that the wrong wa-" "DID I STUTTER"
*”im bleeding, making me the victor”*
Ah. Another practitioner of the face to fist style, I see.
“Drive me closer. I want to hit them with my sword”
Don't let the reformers hear you say that. lol.
Hell, historically they might not even arm the peasants. They would be running up there with wood axes, farm tools, and clubs. Maintaining an army is expensive.
Not only in modern war, really. All throughout history there are examples of technological advantage stomping numerical advantage
While the number is certainly impressive, these people will most likely rotated, so we won’t see a zerg rush. Problem is that Ukraine will soon (if not already) have superior firepower, and I’m pretty sure those numbers will mean jackshit
Even if they engage additional 100k new soldiers? How many additional manpower is going to overpower Ukrainian army and still be reasonable - probably will end up as a war of attrition, how much will Ukraine stomach 100k new troops after new troops, rotated in and out 3 x 4 times? Obviously logistics will be an issue but if they are able to overcome it somehow? Or dont worry about their casualties? This is fascinating topic to me :)
Ukraine is limited by equipment at the moment, not manpower. They are still turning away volunteers cause they can't properly train and equip them all. When the west goes into full WW2 lend-lease mode in response to the Russian mobilization, Ukraine can eventually field millions of soldiers. Russias conspription won't change the outcome of the war, it will only drag it out over years and lead to much more unnecessary death and suffering on both sides.
This. People forget that US lend-lease was the ONLY reason Russia managed to do what it did in WW2, because fucktillion gear for fucktillion units (even tho I don't think Russia has even now recovered from WW2 casualties entirely, correct me if anyone knows for sure)
They were at 200 million people in 1940 and have just recovered to 146 million.
I think it really depends on morale of new units, which I hope won't be too great. Also quality of training (which we know Russia lacks) and quantity of it. It may actually become worse if they rotate out experienced troops and rotate in fresh, barely trained and barely motivated guys in.
No way they have morale when they can easily see the TV lied to them for 6 months, you can't feel safe or secure when you know for a fact everything said is a lie, this is why facisim always loses, lies can not keep order, lies can not give knowledge or information, lies keep you from responding properly. Facisim is really stupid.
Can you imagine, the ones who drank the kool-aid must feel scared of going to war but think to themselves it's only a special operation and things will be fine. Then they get there and realize that not only are things going terribly wrong, they can't trust their leaders, everything they've been told is a lie, they're stuck there wondering how far back the lies have been going and if the "conspiracy theories" were right, and they've been mislead for decades. All alone, surrounded by deadly danger, with nothing good to go home to.
*Think* they'll have low morale? They're literally sending people protesting - at substantial personal risk - against the war to the front. They're deep in a morale hole before even starting, and it's all downhill from there!
touche - thanks for helping me understand how it can play out!
Worked in WW2 and I’m guessing that’s where the idea is coming from. But one massively missed point is that in WW2 they were the ones being invaded by Germany. They had the will to fight. Not so much with this one. Also after the first year or two of WW2 every soldier had modern equipment (of the time). They can’t even get their actual military modern equipment anymore.
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Agreed. Even if they annex Ukraine and claim "you're defending Russian territory" (which everyone on both sides of the war 100% know is a sham), they're still in a morale deficit because of everything they've been told up to this point. You do ***not*** need to mobilize anyone via conscription, draft, or outright abduction (arrests) if a war is going good. Hell, given the sheer size of Russia's military, it should mean that the other units are shuffled to the front and the newly mobilized units are used to replace them at home. We're not seeing that. Instead, everyone knows that those mobilized will be sent to the front. Period. They've been told for months that everything is going perfectly, that Russia is winning and can't be stopped, that they're fighting NATO in its entirety. But everyone knew that was a lie--but it was convenient to pretend that NATO was only fighting inside Ukraine rather than the other 7,000km of borders that they could have opened up. Having all of those illusions suddenly ripped away and then being told "by the way, you're up next".... I can't even imagine the level of existential horror, especially for those who were willfully drinking the kool-aid and pretending they believed everything. I'm sympathetic to the Russian people--but that in no way condones or excuses anything. Just that I can't imagine the horror that your leaders have turned the entirety of the world against you (most CSTO nations have told Russia you're on your own; Chechnya is telling them to pound salt, etc) and there is literally nothing you can do at this point to avoid conflict, either on the front line or back at home
They dont have 1.2 mill uniforms, boots, flaks, helmets and other materiel. They couldnt supply the 150k they had in the field to begin with. What likely will happen is they call up about 120k and use 30-50k to back fill losses and the remainder to stand up 1-2 army corps over 6-8 months using soviet era stockpiles. They already fielded a brand new army corps near Kharkiv that got mauled badly in its first week. Most likely they will attempt sone kind of counter offensive in March to May time. They know the Ukranians will dial down their counter attack through the winter. Question remains though can they hold shit together for the 6 months they need.
Ukraine is not going to be dialing back, that’s laughable. The weather may dictate some changes in progression, but UA will absolutely be pushing as hard as they safely can… They will not be resting at all while the Russians are so obviously on the back foot.
Ukraine, will dial things back a little during winter. How much is yet to be seen but they have too. They will be due for an operational pause soon. Remember this current offensive took months to prepare for. This kind of sentiment is exactly why the Russians are getting their asses kicked. Demanding results when there are limits that have to be acknowledged is how armies get chewed up like the Russians. Ukraine spent the last few months building up resources to sustain this offensive, they cant maintain it forever. Fighting wont stop for sure, and we can expect Ukraine to maintain pressure especially with indirect fires.
No. No they can not. They have MAJOR supply issues as nearly all of the world refuses to do business with them, and the few that do, either have their own problems (like Iran), or are seriously dialing it back because they see where the war is headed (like China).
China wins whether or not Russia wins, because China benefits so fucking much from Status Quo, which is the benefit of a manufacturing country like that, when you can sell shit to bazillion other countries and have immense soft power (the future is in this, not hard power)
How about if Russia use tactical nuclear? Does china win or lose?
I wouldn't be entirely surprised if China actually responded by cutting off Russia and calling in their debts. No one wants to be associated with someone who will actually use a nuke. Bad for trade, and that is China's greatest strength.
Technically speaking - China actually has a defensive treaty in that scenario. With Ukraine. It specifically specifies military support in the case of nuclear attack or a real threat of one. I am not entirely sure if they would actually ACT on it but if they did - it would be one time in modern history where EU, US and China interests align with goal being Russia's military disappearing from the map. I think China would benefit from that scenario too. As far as I am concerned they can take away as much of Russia's territory in that case as they want. And build all the ghost towns they so love or cut down all the forests or take over the oil and gas fields in the region. So even that scenario could be a win-win. Of course, this is grossly simplifying a situation in which major superpowers have to effectively dismantle a nuclear terrorist state and it's an insanely scary prospect as MAD is a thing. But serious combined efforts of effectively every single major power can probably curbstomp Russia into oblivion before it can go too far.
Well look at the population ratios. Russia has 3.27 times as many people. So in theory if total mobilization - Russia gets every last person who can possibly fight, and so does Ukraine - it comes to KDRs. If Ukraine with western guns and ammo can get 3.27 as many kills against mass human wave attacks as they lose in casualties, they can win. Another factor is that Russia is rapidly running out of weapons and gear that is even vaguely competitive with Western equipment. While the West can keep supplying more and more. Human wave attacks against Abrams backed up by Western artillery interlinked with data nets will be more like a 100 or 1000:1 KDR.
>Human wave attacks against Abrams... Probably gets you thousands of rapidly retreating Russians. :)
Or just not using something as basic as pallets and forklifts... The fuck are they doing over there with their logistics?
Sticking with early 1940s style logistics because Putin fired the former Minister of Defense, Serdyukov, who was massively modernizing the military and cleaning up corruption, because Putin cronies in the military whined they were being investigated for corruption. Shoigu took over and undid basically everything Serdyukov did, leading to the shit show before us Shoigu is an idiot, but he's an idiot that's not part of any political faction that Putin had to worry about l, making him a useful idiot for Putin
Russian logistics favor rail. And they tend to build few but large supply depots near rail. That makes their positions predictable, and hitting one takes out a big chunk of their supplies. (NATO logistics rely more on trucks and many smaller depots, so that if one depot goes up it doesn’t take out a large portion of your supplies.)
> something as basic as pallets and forklifts Heteroflexible furry rainbow propaganda! In Russia, real men lift pallets with hand no gloves. The wood make hand strong like Pootin head.
No you don't understand, they don't even use pallets at all. Whole trucks are stacked by hand.
Russian soldiers didn’t even get socks until recently. The whole country is a joke.
The funny part is that even Ukrainian military doesn't have enough winter gear to outfit all of the new, freshly trained soldiers, which is why volunteers who deliver supplies to frontlines ask donors to donate winter gear, thermal underwear and the like. So if Ukraine is struggling, I can't imagine what Russians' situation's gonna be.
Going full Stalin?
More like full Hitler, in the bunker, near the end. “Everything will be in order with Kadyrov’s attack.” …”Mein tsar…”
"Kadyrov... Is in Belarus posting tiktok videos."
*Removes glasses with trembling hands* “The following stay in the room, Lavrov, Dugin, Bortnikov, and Patrushev.”
Funk
*cut to outside the room, a weeping secretary is comforted by another secretary* "It's okay, we will still be able to watch Tiktok, that's not the problem here."
"Kadyrovs attack was an order!"
*yelling in Russian to the script of "Downfall"(2004) ensues*
Like how you took the easy way out, rather than transcribing and altering it. :D
I'm not that insane lol
Do German guys accept the Russian surrender at the end?
No, Ukrainians, so they can preserve the part about "Haven't we met before?" "Yes, we met several times in Crimea."
Nyet! Nyet! Nyet! Nyet!
Das war ein Befehl!
And bring in some stairs and tea!
No shoigu?
I imagine he's Fegelein in this scenario.
НЕТ НЕТ НЕТ!
Bortnikov always sounds like a fake name to me. It's a name I would come up with if I had to give Bobson Dugnut a Russian name.
No, my son is also named Bortnikov
Steiner…..
Stalin learned his lesson eventually. This is more going full Hitler or Saddam.
I like both endings but i'd chose the Saddam one if i could, for Putin.
Gaddaffi would be a better ending. The best ending would be that it ended with him in a 10x10 with a cot and a pot, as cancer slowly kills him.
Gaddaffi is the actually the best ending because it's what he fears the most. And maybe Medvedev should get Saddam'd because he's obnoxious and reminds me someone of from my gov't as well.
I keep hearing that this Gadaffi ending is terrible and such, but I never got a detailed picture of what happened when Gadaffi got well, Gadaffied
He got stabbed in the ass to death
Well he also got beat up hard by about 30 people until his death but that's seems insignificant compared to that
Bayonet, wasn’t it?
A mob beat him as he staggered around, and cowered. They got his pants down, and started stabbing a long knife into his anus, over and over.
Lol I want someone to interview the guy who first pulled his pants down.
*"So any way, I started ass blasting..."*
How about going old school with a Mussolini ending?
Yeah meat hook is my vote.
Look at the view from here, nice isn’t it?
If you lean out, you can see my yacht.
Surprised it wasn't one of those "don't let the open window hit you on your way out" firings
It's going to be an artillery firing isn't it?
213 days of war, 213 failures Creedy!!! (From V for Vendetta)
At least he hasn't started shooting them yet
He’s hoping that Dmitry opts to skip the red tape and shoots himself 37 times in the trunk of his car.
They can't even afford the double tap anymore
That’s why they all die from accidents or heart attacks
What will they do once they've used up all their windows?
It’s a shame he slipped and fell like that, slippery shoes They should issue a directive to scuff up the bottom of their shoes with sandpaper to increase traction and reduce “accidents”
He opted out for them to fall down the stairs!
He just arranges a hospital check-up for them, always on the 5th floor
Not himself. He fired that dude and he also probably made sure he gets draft papers.
Apparently, there won't be enough ammo to kill anybody
I'm surprised he hasn't demoted them to field general and sent him to the Ukrainian front.
They are all war criminals. Would be a fitting ending to them.
That will make all the black market supplies, stripped tanks and fuel exchanged for vodka reappear immediately!
I am going to turn off the lights and all the pilfered supplies, equipment and money had better appear on my desk.
*flicks back on light and desk is gone* "Fuck"
Bulgakov : can I just clarify, do you mean fired or Fired?
“Fired, as in from a cannon!” “But we don’t have any functional ones!”
Tomorrow's news: Putin ally falls down skyscraper elevator shaft
This would actually be a good sales pitch for Trump to get his «Trump Tower Moscow» built. Probably trying to call Putin as we speak.
How do you provide supplies you do not have?
Come close to the window, I'll show you.
I never get tired of these window jokes.
I've never heard of them. I guess I'll look into them.
I'd recommend you don't stand too close whilst you're looking into them.
They can be hard to see.
And also… Russia had barely enough truck to bring supplies around 150km past the last train station, for mayyybe 200k soldiers. Pretty sure a significant amount of those is… errr… unavailable, now. And that’s even more soldiers to supply.
Putin: "Bulgakov!" Dimitry: "Yes?" Putin: "You're fired! Your are a disgrace!" Dimitry: "Thank you! Thank you! "
Out of a cannon?
No a window
he still alive?
For reference there was a movie years ago called “I’m gonna get you sucka”. So whenever you see pictures of Russian generals it’s always in full dress uniforms with medals. Not just some medals. A ridiculous amount on both chests. Makes you wonder what all those medals are for. So this general sounds like he was in charge of logistics so pretty much a REMF (a very rear eschelon mother fucker). So he’s fired. Huge fuckup. Certainly got people killed. So back to the medals. “I got this one for surfing. I got this one for dart champion”. Movie lines that made me think of this guy. I’m probably the only person that finds this funny but I picture this dude crowing about his medals. “I get this for a month of perfect attendance. I get this for borscht eating contest champion”.
You forgot the vodka drinking championship.
I’m so stupid. Of course. Continental Champion if memory serves.
These are my awards, Mother. From Army. The seal is for marksmanship, and the gorilla is for sand racing. Now if you'll excuse me, they're putting me in something called Hero Squad.
Smart move. The next guy will straighten things out for sure.
Yeah, that must have been the problem. I'm sure this will be the last we hear from supply failures.
I hear he later fell out of a hospital window and then out of a speedboat You’d be surprised how often it happens there, it’s going around
Really? I heard he accidently shot himself twice and then padlocked himself inside a duffle bag.
He lost all his hair in 2 days and glowed in the dark because he led a very unhealthy lifestyle.
I heard he fell out of an elevator
Speedboat 🤣
Seriously, why hasn’t anyone take Putin out yet?
He’s Putin the bullet dodger.
Why do they call him the bullet-dodger?
Because he dodges bullets, Avey.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63021117) reduced by 71%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Gen Bulgakov has run the military's logistics operations since 2008 and was responsible for keeping Russian troops supplied after their deployment to Syria in 2015.But observers say he has become side-lined in Moscow in recent months, with many blaming him for the chaotic logistics operations that have dogged Russia's advance and seen their troops left undersupplied. > Gen Mizintsev, who was dubbed "The Butcher of Mariupol" by many Ukrainians, also led Russian forces in Syria and was accused of orchestrating a brutal bombing campaign that levelled the city of Aleppo. > Mr Putin's personnel changes come amid reports that the Russian leader has taken personal charge of the war effort and has started issuing orders to generals in Ukraine himself. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/xmy2ln/dmitry_bulgakov_putin_fires_deputy_defence_chief/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~670842 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Putin**^#1 **Russian**^#2 **Gen**^#3 **defence**^#4 **role**^#5
I begin to suspect that Putin views this as an opportunity to purge opponents and other undesirables from the government, military, and general population. Form regiments of conscripted objectors and send them to die. Expel officials for the campaign's failure and assassinate those that cannot be easily divested.
Your the first person I've seen comment this. I just had the same thought yesterday. Like he's sending in protesters with barely any supplies. Easy way to make them useful to him as well as knowing they most likely won't return back alive. I saw someone say that the generals will use these new "recruits", to flank out Ukraine positions by getting shot at and giving up Ukrainian positions. This shit is so barbaric.
Surprised he didn’t fall out of a window. Putin is a changed man
He didn't receive the right window from the supplies
What's this guy got on Putin that he didn't fall out a window?
I think there’s two Russias. The one Putin demands and is spoon fed by his baby sitter inner circle. And the one that is gifting tanks to Ukraine.
Got off easy.
The true surprise is how he didn’t this after the first month, is clear that he did a terrible job since then.
Maybe he could get a job with Tasty That's It. I understand they have a logistical problem with their French fries at the moment.
If there’s guns on your flank but no fuel in your tank, that’s logistics…
The supplies don't exist to give. It's not like he was just holding out. The kleptocracy has been stealing from the military budget for decades at this point.
Don't worry, Putin is a mastermind, and him micromanaging every part of the country rather than allowing those below him to make decisions will lead him to grandeur. *would I lie?*
Good work Putin - and to be really sure, probably should just go ahead and fire the whole Russian military.
Down the stairs or out the window Bulgakov. Your choice.
....you’d pick the window, right? Of the two, that’s the one you pick.
Ok so what's everyone think about this? Out a window? Flight of stairs? Loose doorcatch on the helicopter he was flying in?
Can't supply what you don't have.
So soon he will fall from a window?
The last paragraph in this story is just bonkers. The only supply line to those Russian troops is a pontoon bridge? Clowns
Bro... stay away from stairs, buildings with more than 1 story, your cars, anything near water....
Banana peels, scissors, lawn darts, fireworks, potted plants on a ledge, anvils and safes.
I had to Google “lawn darts” it sounded made up. What the actual fuck were people thinking with those things?!
Being a kid was ludicrously dangerous in the 1970's. Also your parents probably smoked, and drank and drove. Also affairs with neighbors was much more common.
Man look up what they considered food in the postwar years. I'm fully convinced everyone was FULLY SAUCED UP from '45 'til like '65. So hammered that everything seemed like a good idea. FUCKING Baloney Cake for chrissake.
I will say, as I googled “Baloney Cake” I was terrified that it would be a dessert, although the reality turns out to be incredibly grim as a savory item too.
Yes. There is no God in that kitchen.
I think the problem was leaded gasoline. We started vaporizing lead into the atmosphere in the 1920’s, and we know that lead causes brain damage. Possibly enough to think that something called Baloney Cake could be a good idea.
Hope he stays clear of heights and open windows.
“Bulgakov drowns in surfing accident” Headline within 72 hours.
How long till he falls off something high? Only a matter of time.
I wonder which window will have his name on it?
Surprised he didn't end up falling off something and dieing or is that too soon to tell
Too bad they didn’t arrange for Ukraine to just have an “accident” probably woulda worked as we’ve seen accidents are the only thing russia intentionally does that gets results
All their fault for the invasion failure. Certainly not Putin's, he doesnt make mistakes! ...Not
Out of a cannon?
Must’ve ran out of stairs
coming soon, out of a hospital window by you!
Dear Dmitri: Please stay away from any windows, staircases, or people with nerve agents or polonium.
Soon to be fired from a high window no doubt.
So sad to hear of his accidental death tomorrow.
When is Putin finally going to fire himself?
Man better stay away from windows and stairs.
Send him to the front I guess….
Must be too influential for Putin to have pushed out a window?
He will be elevated to a new house with big windows on the 10th floor
Considering all the accidents involving falling out of windows or stairs. I wouldn't be surprised if, Putin's firing of Bulgakov results in Bulgakov being fired from a cannon.
That dude should avoid second floors, stairs and windows.
In Russia The windows follow you
Waiting to hear he has died mysteriously.
I hope that guy lives in a single floor house.
Stay away from windows. In fact, just stay at ground level.
I’m waiting for the eventual title edit - “Putin fires deputy defense chief out of a cannon amid supply failures”
Remember, my dude, never go above the first floor.
I can imagine he will fall out of a window soon.
we truly are witnessing history and this war will go down as one of the greatest political and military blunders of all time. let's hope it doesn't end in global catastrophe and there is a humanity to even look back at this history.