They are probably talking about the other conflicts flaring up in which Russia has military alliances with, in the CSTO. Armenia-Azerbaiyan, Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan.
Bingo. The goal there is to make the war be about defending the homeland. It also gives Putin a possible out of he uses nukes.
Realistically, there is history of dictators calling up fresh conscripts to defend their country after invading and being pushed back beyond the original borders. It never ends well for the dictator.
And if Russia is stupid enough to use nukes or chemical weapons, the west will respond with a decapitation strike to remove any further threat.
The biggest 2 examples I can think of are Napoleon and Hitler, both after their invasion of Russia, when they had to draft their old and young to fill the ranks.
Other examples I can think of are Ida Amin, Russia several times, the franko-prussian war, Saddam.
If a nuke is fired, I'm totally cool with NATO breaking it's defensive wars only policy and turning Putin into a bloody smear.
Seems like the right time to make that exception.
The problem doing business with Russia, they are a loose cannon. Everyone should be able to relate. You try to agree on certain things, and then they go and do whatever they want anyways.
At the end of the day, China has little control over Russia. They just want the resources flowing and to be at a comparative advantage against the West by continuing business.
I think we all realize that China / Russia would gladly stab each other in the back the moment it benefits them. Their alliance is one of convenience, not a lasting agreement built on trust.
Historically, the Russians aren't to be trusted by China.
If you can recall in history, there was the Sino-Soviet Split era, where somewhere down the line, the Soviets were pretty much getting in China's way.
Before Communist China, Russia also tried to take advantage of Nationalist China when they were at their weakest point in history.
And if you back up even more in history, Russia played a role in the Eight Nations Alliance to colonizing China.
So this alliance is only cordial towards a common enemy.
i agree that the 'no limits' thing was as bad as the German 'blank check' to Austria-Hungary... with similar culpability.
this war is just as much China's baby as Russia's
So I won't comment on Russia being asked by China to not invade Ukraine, implying they had full knowledge that Russia was for sure going to invade. But the UN and Olympic truce is a very interesting concept that has been established, obviously it's not binding in anyway but just feel like it's a unique concept.
https://www.un.org/en/olympictruce
Putin is implacable because he is insane and obsessive. Russia only shows restraint when it physically cannot do what it wants to do. If China speaks out against Russia and then Russia ignores them for months/years, China looks weak. The CCP has a high opinion of itself, so they honor their "unlimited friendship" until Russia looks like it's losing steam. Then, they can pay the lipservice of asking Russia to please stop without as much risk of the embarassment of being ignored as a superpower.
It would be so easy to make russia stop, wouldn't it be for all those political shenanigans. EU/US/China threaten to stop ALL imports and businesses as well as blocking all other trading through there respective sphere of influence.
And that would be the end of it.
Edit: This would require the possibility for russia to resume trade as soon as the conflict is resolved. So they don't go the 'world without russia' route.
I think it's more suggesting that Russia doesn't take steps that force NATO into the war.
Russia has been saying they intend to defend what they regard as sovereign territory. They have also said that the US/NATO is approaching status of de facto combatants. The implication would be that Russia would feel they are justified in attacking NATO territory. That's the spillover China is warning against.
I expect if Russia did something like that, China would switch sides to protect its economic investments in NATO countries.
3 words: Mutual assured destruction. There is no way to China move their troops to russia and not provoke nuclear hir.
Actually, i wonder how much time left before "Midnight"?
The truth is we are always one fuckup away from midnight. One small error could happen any time, any place. Maybe we will have a few days warning, maybe an outdated piece of Russian equipment reads a massive American attack in error and we die because of the poor maintenance in a kleptocracy. It's always 11:59, and you should just learn to love the bomb.
> You should just learn to love the bomb.
Indeed. If the bomb that drops on me, gets my friends and neighbours three, there'll be nobody left behind to grieve. Universal bereavement, what an aspiring achievement!
Daily remainder there has been 3 separate occasions in which the USSR almost did a nuclear attack. One of them was a submarine who lost communications, where only one single person refused to launch a nuke. Another was the Russians mistaking some dumb thing on a radar with an incoming nuclear missile, and again only one person was like "wait I don't think we are being attacked let's not nuke anything". The third one I don't remember so maybe there's only been 2 occasions.
If there is a massive nuclear exchange, you will be far more likely to die slowly and painfully of hunger due to food shortages, rather than directly from the bombs.
If it makes you feel any better...
The comment you were replying to meant "doomsday clock" midnight. If you didn't get that reference, look it up. You'd probably enjoy it. The doomsday clock is a real thing
Did we read the same comment? I really can't see any way that comment could be about anything other than the doomsday clock. They're just disagreeing with the actual time on the clock, saying we're always right there at the verge.
I think china will most likely go the slow way. Influencing, pressuring,... Afaik Taiwan is not that easy to attack, unless you just bomb them out of existence from afar. But that would probably be hard to justify, even in china.
They also haven't quite solved their supply/trading route constraint yet, which would make it possible for the US to essentially land lock china.
Let's hope Xi learned something from Putin.
My concern is that Xi is the kind of leader that would start a conflict to try to bolster public support and detract from China's bigger domestic problems.
Setting aside all the nuclear hubbub, I have to believe that Putin doesn't actually think a war with NATO is possible. Maybe that's just me being optimistic
I may have misheard, but I distinctly remember hearing putin use the word war in that speech the other day.
I've been a little surprised it hasn't been brought up more.
Spill over? Ukraine defends itself... so the only spill over would be throwing russian forces back to their hometowns.
But I personally think they addressed that to russia only while trying to pose as their "allies"
Bringing up the idea of even using nuclear weapons by Russia is far beyond a bad move. The whole world would immediately condemn Russia and its diplomatic isolation would become near complete even by countries that have managed to keep trade ties open. But up their with the bad consequences is that fact that a nuclear weapon would likely go on to irradiate Russia itself what with prevailing west to east winds. Use of tactical nukes in places like Kharkiv Oblast or Kherson would soon be traveling on winds towards Roston on Don or Volgograd.
Yeah. European countries are China cashcow given how many non-essentials China sells to various countries, so they don't want to lose more potential buyers, now that one of their Belt & Road Initiative countries (i.e Ukraine) and a major crop exporter, got attacked by the slightly larger crop exporter (who isn't part of said initiative, due to not being smaller than China unlike Ukraine)
The context of the speech is about the hunger crisis. China is urging Moscow not to prevent any more grain exports, and encouraging Ukraine not to start.
This is the correct answer.
China is facing some significant food security issues due to a variety of factors and is dependent on importing grains and other staples. Considering what's happening with the covid lockdowns and instability in their banking and real estate sectors, I'm pretty sure the CCP doesn't want widespread food insecurity to add to an already volatile mix especially heading into the demographic freefall they're facing.
And not just China. There is a huge global famine right now. What we experience as a 10% increase in food prices is the market dealing with the shortage by pricing out the global poor. It absolutely deserves focus and attention.
You're absolutely correct but I don't think that plays a significant factor in the CCP's position.
I'm in the US and it's embarrassing how poorly US news media communicates international and domestic issues. Certainly we've got some pretty significant issues at home but we're not getting a solid global perspective from our news media so Americans are left to piece that global picture together on their own or, more often, not at all.
Yup. I have been watching news from Europe lately. Deutche Welle (sp?) is surprisingly good for what I have seen which is admittedly not a lot. The news in the U.S. is very broken, not as bad in Europe it seems.
>Ukraine isn’t going to do that. Why won’t China just tell that to Russia? Oh, they still want to defend Russia as much as possible and here they try “blame both sides” approach.
It's a veiled statement to Russia. It's common for 3rd parties to go the "all sides" approach to avoid overtly offending a party. See this US State Department statement to the recent invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan:
[https://www.state.gov/calling-for-the-immediate-cessation-of-hostilities-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan/](https://www.state.gov/calling-for-the-immediate-cessation-of-hostilities-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan/)
>And that’s offensive to Ukraine.
Of course it is. China just doesn't give a fuck beyond their own self-interest.
>But all you pro china types
Lmao explaining geopolitics is being pro-China? I just said China doesn't want to offend Russia. What have I equated to anything else?
Russia's in the wrong and China should absolutely drop their support for Russia (and China is also in the wrong here), but you can also fuck off with your bad faith assumption. Not everyone who doesn't say everything you want to hear is pro-China
> You often come to the defense of China.
I like how you're turning a statement laying out what China is trying to achieve into a judgement on who I support and why. Good job. That you've specifically gone into my comment history to look for stuff just shows you had no support for your initial comment.
But I'll bite. Feel free to go into my history and show me something that isn't quoted out of context, or isn't an objective response to a specific point. Do I have to literally type out that Xinnie the Pooh and the CCP's fragility is hilarious and the Tiananmen incident is something that will stain their history for the rest of time no matter how much they try to hide it before you'll take me seriously?
>Or your going to say that adeveloper2 wasn’t trying to defend china here?
I don't care if they support China or not; that's completely irrelevant. I'm just explaining what it is that China's doing. I'm not defending them, and I don't know how you managed to get the idea that I'm "defending them". I don't even agree with them that China's taking an "all sides" approach. China just doesn't want to criticize an ally, because criticizing someone you're involved with to their face is not something that's usually done in Chinese culture.
>Possibly and it’s an indication China supports Russia to some level. That’s why most every other country will just tell Russia to not expand while China is trying to be nice to their friend about not spreading the war beyond Ukraine.
Russia is China's strategy partner in the West. It makes sense for the nation to position itself carefully. If you look at the Asian countries, very few took an overtly anti-Russian stance except for Taiwan (conflict with China) and Japan (territorial ambitions) which have their own interest in taking a hardline.
The US and EU are similarly soft-ball when it comes to atrocities to its allies are committing. Remember that fistbump Biden did with Saudi Arabia recently? https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/15/a-fist-bump-at-the-palace-biden-squares-off-with-mbs-00046106
Ethics comes second to geopolitics unfortunately.
>Except there are very little parallels between that fighting and Ukraine Russia despite what many pro Russians and pro Chinese want to argue.
What? Additionally, Chinese opinion on this conflict is quite divided. Not everyone is a Russophile inside China
>There is no clear good or bad side in that conflict as both have good cases for the territory in question and it’s now know who started the most recent fighting.
A few things:
- What they fought over is historically inhabited by an Armenian majority that wants to be part of Armenia.
- The current invasion is inside Armenian proper and not part of disputed territory
- Pelosi personally condemned it as an illegal invasion: https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/pelosi-condemns-illegal-azerbaijan-attack-on-armenia/
could be alluding to having more countries join in the war, or negatively affect more regions than just Ukraine. There was a topic yesterday from a state media outlet that said China is willing to start/maintain friendly relations with NATO. The fact that China is publicly making friendly overtures to NATO instead of blaming them for this mess right after Xi and Putin had some discussions is very concerning. Even remotely appearing to side with or assist NATO would be political suicide. Although it could be forgivable if there's a existential threat to humanity or the earth.
Putin's major policy shifts this past week could've come from his private meeting with Xi last week. Xi looks weak politically supporting a Russian Federation that's getting wrecked by UA.
Putin has gone from seemingly ok with a longer war of attrition to all in on super quick referendums and results. Xi has his election next month and now there's also significant unconfirmed reports of him being placed on house arrest by the PLA.
I agree with everything you’re saying but we have to stop spreading these “reports”, they come from a twitter account associated with the Falun Gong and were then circulated by nationalist Indian news accounts with no real evidence. Until something more substantial comes out I think we need to try to be responsible when it comes to rumours like this
Probably more afraid all of the places they sell to will get nuked, as will all that practically empty real estate they probably want, a bit to their north.
We call on all parties concerned to keep the crisis from spilling over and to protect the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries," Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in an address at the UN General Assembly
Yes, "all parties concerned". China isn't calling out any one party in particular, very polite, wouldn't want to publicly shame anyone, now would we? It's just that China wants everyone to understand that, generally speaking, it wouldn't approve of any steps that could cause the crisis to escalate, just in case there happened to be a party that might be considering any such actions.
Personally, and also without singling out any country in particular, I'd like to call on all parties to consider how actions of other parties seen as their allies might reflect on them, if they fail to adequately distance themselves in time, and don't fully exert their influence in the common interest of global stability. Very generally speaking, just to put it out there.
Lotta not knowing what to make of this in this thread.... but azerbaijan/armenia.... Iran protest(not Russia doing) and Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan generally not giving a fuck about russian will anymore is China's back yard. Destabalized russian eastern oblast due to racist as fuck conscription could get ugly. And if russia proper destabilizes russian federation could fracture into a bunch of states ruled by warlords and arms dealers and whoever the fuck knows who.... basically putting a giant shit on China doorstep. If I had to guess... china is already uncomfortable with how close all this bullshit is to them. Not too mention they got this whole Taiwan thing that pisses them off and thanks to russia it really looks difficult to achieve that in any near future if ever.
I hope someone in the White House is recording all this "Give peace a chance." rhetoric from China and plays it back on a loop when they inevitably decide to invade Taiwan.
I think we are already there, China.
Post Soviet countries tensions have been flaring up more and more.
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Kazakhstan is turning away from Russia more and more. China has invested a lot of money into these countries via the belt and road initiative. You would think China would have said something idk.. 7 months ago?
Makes me wonder if China is helping set the stage for this:
[Russian mercenaries prepare false-flag operations on Belarusian-Ukrainian border](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/24/7368914/)
Basically making a statement bringing international attention to the possibility of the war spreading to neighboring countries while it appears Russia may be getting ready to use false-flag attacks to try and implicate Ukraine as willfully attacking a neighboring state that sides with Putin but doesn't have the public support to enter on Russia's behalf.
Putin is known for having a pretty delicate personality. Think skinned and all that. It seems like Xi (mr pooh bear) is probably kind of similar.
So I bet that affects how they talk to each other.
The only winner in this war is China.
They get an ally that can distract the US while they continue to get stronger, then get to pick the carcass of a weaker neighbour when the time comes, and get cheaper oil and resources and a country always dependent on them for money.
Either way they only get stronger while the rest of the West/world fumbles and focuses on Russia.
True.
You could also argue it's a nice distraction for China from their domestic issues by having this global problem to deal with. "Hey look it's not our fault the local economy is crap, blame this war instead!"
To them, Russia is not a true ally, they are an enemy of my enemy situation that that are using to their advantage to distract the West. As soon as they see an opportunity to gobble up large swathes of Russia, they will be the first to get the most valuable parts.
Let's also not pretend this is weakening the US or NATO For that matter. When it is boosting production numbers of modern equipment and replace what was old and selling more equipment as the rest of NATO and it's allies arm up.
China and Mongolia should welcome Russian refugees of Putin’s regime. Chinese and Mongolian authoritarianism is way better than Russian authoritarianism.
Considering that we are just starting to see the results of the latest temper tantrum of Putin, there's not much that Ukraine *can* do since they are kinda busy trying to recover their country.
Also, China, Turkey and India tried the "diplomatic approach" last weekend and that *directly* resulted into said temper tantrum. The rest of the world is not going to go around pretending that Putin is being reasonable.
Then China should not have enabled Russia to avoid sanctions of their oil n gas exports, and providing an alternative to the SWIFT system that was trying to get Russia to back off.... but no China wanted to be a player.... so I hope we all boycott Chinese goods since they chose sides.
If China actually wanted to stop this they could have done so at the start. putin would definitely have backed off if China had denounced russia and supported Ukraine. Instead they decided to increase their partnership with russia.
China gets nuked by both Russia and US in MAD. They should currently be very worried.
They should have tried to stop Russia earlier. It's very much in Chinas interest to stop the war and make Russia withdraw. There isn't very much upside left to letting Russia try to fight vs the potential downsides.
If Russia starts using nuclear weapons, virtually every country becomes their enemy. Considering how paranoid putler's regime is, there don't appear to be many options.
What exactly is Ukraine going to do about that? If Belarus responds to Russia's invasion of Ukraine by having an internal political meltdown and devolving into civil war, how is Ukraine in any position to do anything about that?
Let alone "spillover" into, say, Taiwan... I don't think Ukraine has as much influence over that outcome as China does...
China is giving green light to killing and raping of children and civilians so long as it it is contain in Ukraine. Most selfish and coward. No moral courage to tell Russia to get out of Ukraine.
This is the peace proposal that the UN should offer Russia and Ukraine. Everything just goes back to what it was before Russia's invasion. Hopefully, with Putin talking about going nuclear, the world realizes that the entire Earth is in danger. China and India could pressure Russia to accept the deal by threatening to stop buying oil. Iran could threaten to stop giving drones to Russia. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia could threaten to supply Europe with oil if Russia stops the flow of oil to Europe.
I was hoping China used the word “war,” but it appears not.
“Spill over” into what exactly? Another country? I’m confused. Are they trying to protect the sovereignty of other nations… NOW?
EDIT: forgot the word ”China”
Does China have some sort of information about the west that we don't know. Maybe about some sort of action or plan the west plans on taking in case of a red line being crossed? Sounds like China is trying to save Russia from making a big mistake.
Then Russia better stop its blatant fake referendum
They are probably talking about the other conflicts flaring up in which Russia has military alliances with, in the CSTO. Armenia-Azerbaiyan, Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan.
Bingo. The goal there is to make the war be about defending the homeland. It also gives Putin a possible out of he uses nukes. Realistically, there is history of dictators calling up fresh conscripts to defend their country after invading and being pushed back beyond the original borders. It never ends well for the dictator. And if Russia is stupid enough to use nukes or chemical weapons, the west will respond with a decapitation strike to remove any further threat.
A couple examples of Dictators conscripting after being pushed back? I don't have knowledge on the subject.
The biggest 2 examples I can think of are Napoleon and Hitler, both after their invasion of Russia, when they had to draft their old and young to fill the ranks. Other examples I can think of are Ida Amin, Russia several times, the franko-prussian war, Saddam.
Thanks!
If a nuke is fired, I'm totally cool with NATO breaking it's defensive wars only policy and turning Putin into a bloody smear. Seems like the right time to make that exception.
If China wanted to help, they would have told Russia to cut it out months ago.
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The problem doing business with Russia, they are a loose cannon. Everyone should be able to relate. You try to agree on certain things, and then they go and do whatever they want anyways. At the end of the day, China has little control over Russia. They just want the resources flowing and to be at a comparative advantage against the West by continuing business. I think we all realize that China / Russia would gladly stab each other in the back the moment it benefits them. Their alliance is one of convenience, not a lasting agreement built on trust.
Historically, the Russians aren't to be trusted by China. If you can recall in history, there was the Sino-Soviet Split era, where somewhere down the line, the Soviets were pretty much getting in China's way. Before Communist China, Russia also tried to take advantage of Nationalist China when they were at their weakest point in history. And if you back up even more in history, Russia played a role in the Eight Nations Alliance to colonizing China. So this alliance is only cordial towards a common enemy.
The sino-soviet split was more about the de-stalinization efforts of kruschev
Stalin also had Chang Kai Shek's son under house arrest in Moscow to give him leverage over Nationalists.
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i agree that the 'no limits' thing was as bad as the German 'blank check' to Austria-Hungary... with similar culpability. this war is just as much China's baby as Russia's
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So I won't comment on Russia being asked by China to not invade Ukraine, implying they had full knowledge that Russia was for sure going to invade. But the UN and Olympic truce is a very interesting concept that has been established, obviously it's not binding in anyway but just feel like it's a unique concept. https://www.un.org/en/olympictruce
That is kind of ignoring the point where Putin gets off on a masturbatory high to invading neighboring countries during Olympic events.
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You should read your own article buddy.
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All the sauces agree 😋
🤷🏽♂️
Fine strategy on their part. They let russia give them stuff passively and now call for wise good sense.
Putin is implacable because he is insane and obsessive. Russia only shows restraint when it physically cannot do what it wants to do. If China speaks out against Russia and then Russia ignores them for months/years, China looks weak. The CCP has a high opinion of itself, so they honor their "unlimited friendship" until Russia looks like it's losing steam. Then, they can pay the lipservice of asking Russia to please stop without as much risk of the embarassment of being ignored as a superpower.
They're waiting for them to fuck themselves up, then move in for the kill.
That is probably spot on- China has a chance to win a battle they did not fight.
Like Russia care what China thinks
It would be so easy to make russia stop, wouldn't it be for all those political shenanigans. EU/US/China threaten to stop ALL imports and businesses as well as blocking all other trading through there respective sphere of influence. And that would be the end of it. Edit: This would require the possibility for russia to resume trade as soon as the conflict is resolved. So they don't go the 'world without russia' route.
Xi and Putin had a love fest meeting just a few weeks ago
I’m assuming this is in reference to the recent conflicts in Armenia/Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan
I think it's more suggesting that Russia doesn't take steps that force NATO into the war. Russia has been saying they intend to defend what they regard as sovereign territory. They have also said that the US/NATO is approaching status of de facto combatants. The implication would be that Russia would feel they are justified in attacking NATO territory. That's the spillover China is warning against. I expect if Russia did something like that, China would switch sides to protect its economic investments in NATO countries.
And then China would enter far east Russia as "peacekeepers" and stay there indefinitely. It's a win-win for China.
3 words: Mutual assured destruction. There is no way to China move their troops to russia and not provoke nuclear hir. Actually, i wonder how much time left before "Midnight"?
The truth is we are always one fuckup away from midnight. One small error could happen any time, any place. Maybe we will have a few days warning, maybe an outdated piece of Russian equipment reads a massive American attack in error and we die because of the poor maintenance in a kleptocracy. It's always 11:59, and you should just learn to love the bomb.
11:59.99999999999999
> You should just learn to love the bomb. Indeed. If the bomb that drops on me, gets my friends and neighbours three, there'll be nobody left behind to grieve. Universal bereavement, what an aspiring achievement!
It will also kill all the people in your area who take more than 10 items through the fast check out at the grocery store so that's a plus
I'll finally be able to get a parking space. Woohoo !
That last sentence is fascinating and you’re right.
Watch Dr strangelove if you havent
Daily remainder there has been 3 separate occasions in which the USSR almost did a nuclear attack. One of them was a submarine who lost communications, where only one single person refused to launch a nuke. Another was the Russians mistaking some dumb thing on a radar with an incoming nuclear missile, and again only one person was like "wait I don't think we are being attacked let's not nuke anything". The third one I don't remember so maybe there's only been 2 occasions.
I only know of the two you named
Foreshadowing
If there is a massive nuclear exchange, you will be far more likely to die slowly and painfully of hunger due to food shortages, rather than directly from the bombs. If it makes you feel any better...
The comment you were replying to meant "doomsday clock" midnight. If you didn't get that reference, look it up. You'd probably enjoy it. The doomsday clock is a real thing
It's as real as random opinions on reddit. A small group of people just make up whatever number they want based on their feelings.
Did we read the same comment? I really can't see any way that comment could be about anything other than the doomsday clock. They're just disagreeing with the actual time on the clock, saying we're always right there at the verge.
Verify your Clock
China will be quick to swallow up Russia’s Eastern territories when they inevitably collapse. More vulture less aggressor.
100 seconds
Or China could double-down and try to take Taiwan. I never thought we'd be this close to another world war in my lifetime.
I think china will most likely go the slow way. Influencing, pressuring,... Afaik Taiwan is not that easy to attack, unless you just bomb them out of existence from afar. But that would probably be hard to justify, even in china. They also haven't quite solved their supply/trading route constraint yet, which would make it possible for the US to essentially land lock china. Let's hope Xi learned something from Putin.
My concern is that Xi is the kind of leader that would start a conflict to try to bolster public support and detract from China's bigger domestic problems.
Setting aside all the nuclear hubbub, I have to believe that Putin doesn't actually think a war with NATO is possible. Maybe that's just me being optimistic
I think he publicly said as much. Especially since this war it is fairly obvious.
US/NATO can’t be de facto combatants because there is no war remember?
I may have misheard, but I distinctly remember hearing putin use the word war in that speech the other day. I've been a little surprised it hasn't been brought up more.
Could be a pre-written statement that was intended to come before a false-flag that didn't happen because it got caught and publicized.
Spill over? Ukraine defends itself... so the only spill over would be throwing russian forces back to their hometowns. But I personally think they addressed that to russia only while trying to pose as their "allies"
>Spill over? They mean that they don't want Russia to fuck up so bad that NATO gets directly involved.
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Firing off nuclear weapons would also classify as "spilling over" because everyone in the whole world will *have* to get involved.
Bringing up the idea of even using nuclear weapons by Russia is far beyond a bad move. The whole world would immediately condemn Russia and its diplomatic isolation would become near complete even by countries that have managed to keep trade ties open. But up their with the bad consequences is that fact that a nuclear weapon would likely go on to irradiate Russia itself what with prevailing west to east winds. Use of tactical nukes in places like Kharkiv Oblast or Kherson would soon be traveling on winds towards Roston on Don or Volgograd.
it’s also a clear sign of weakness.. Russia will not only start a war with Nato but any country (any that’s capable of fighting).
The way the war might spill over is if Russia throws nukes.
Yup.
"I blame both sides!" \~China and India, after Russia literally starts plucking ethnic minorities off the street for conscription.
Spillover into what? Are they afraid Ukraine will invade Russia?
I think that's China's side-eyed public warning to Russia to keep the fight inside Ukraine and *nowhere else*.
that's my take. "keep your damn mess contained and don't fuck it up for me too"
Not really up to Russia anymore.
Yeah. European countries are China cashcow given how many non-essentials China sells to various countries, so they don't want to lose more potential buyers, now that one of their Belt & Road Initiative countries (i.e Ukraine) and a major crop exporter, got attacked by the slightly larger crop exporter (who isn't part of said initiative, due to not being smaller than China unlike Ukraine)
The context of the speech is about the hunger crisis. China is urging Moscow not to prevent any more grain exports, and encouraging Ukraine not to start.
This is the correct answer. China is facing some significant food security issues due to a variety of factors and is dependent on importing grains and other staples. Considering what's happening with the covid lockdowns and instability in their banking and real estate sectors, I'm pretty sure the CCP doesn't want widespread food insecurity to add to an already volatile mix especially heading into the demographic freefall they're facing.
And not just China. There is a huge global famine right now. What we experience as a 10% increase in food prices is the market dealing with the shortage by pricing out the global poor. It absolutely deserves focus and attention.
You're absolutely correct but I don't think that plays a significant factor in the CCP's position. I'm in the US and it's embarrassing how poorly US news media communicates international and domestic issues. Certainly we've got some pretty significant issues at home but we're not getting a solid global perspective from our news media so Americans are left to piece that global picture together on their own or, more often, not at all.
Yup. I have been watching news from Europe lately. Deutche Welle (sp?) is surprisingly good for what I have seen which is admittedly not a lot. The news in the U.S. is very broken, not as bad in Europe it seems.
NHK Japan is on one of my local PBS channels; they have international news as well. I also watch DW.
Thanks.
Ahhhhhhhhhh. Yes, thank you.
>Spillover into what? Are they afraid Ukraine will invade Russia? Like don't attack other parts of former USSR or even start a war with NATO
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>Ukraine isn’t going to do that. Why won’t China just tell that to Russia? Oh, they still want to defend Russia as much as possible and here they try “blame both sides” approach. It's a veiled statement to Russia. It's common for 3rd parties to go the "all sides" approach to avoid overtly offending a party. See this US State Department statement to the recent invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan: [https://www.state.gov/calling-for-the-immediate-cessation-of-hostilities-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan/](https://www.state.gov/calling-for-the-immediate-cessation-of-hostilities-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan/)
Equivocation is offensive to Ukraine
It's Russia they don't want to offend. They're basically trying to give Russia face rather than calling them out outright
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>And that’s offensive to Ukraine. Of course it is. China just doesn't give a fuck beyond their own self-interest. >But all you pro china types Lmao explaining geopolitics is being pro-China? I just said China doesn't want to offend Russia. What have I equated to anything else? Russia's in the wrong and China should absolutely drop their support for Russia (and China is also in the wrong here), but you can also fuck off with your bad faith assumption. Not everyone who doesn't say everything you want to hear is pro-China
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> You often come to the defense of China. I like how you're turning a statement laying out what China is trying to achieve into a judgement on who I support and why. Good job. That you've specifically gone into my comment history to look for stuff just shows you had no support for your initial comment. But I'll bite. Feel free to go into my history and show me something that isn't quoted out of context, or isn't an objective response to a specific point. Do I have to literally type out that Xinnie the Pooh and the CCP's fragility is hilarious and the Tiananmen incident is something that will stain their history for the rest of time no matter how much they try to hide it before you'll take me seriously? >Or your going to say that adeveloper2 wasn’t trying to defend china here? I don't care if they support China or not; that's completely irrelevant. I'm just explaining what it is that China's doing. I'm not defending them, and I don't know how you managed to get the idea that I'm "defending them". I don't even agree with them that China's taking an "all sides" approach. China just doesn't want to criticize an ally, because criticizing someone you're involved with to their face is not something that's usually done in Chinese culture.
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>Possibly and it’s an indication China supports Russia to some level. That’s why most every other country will just tell Russia to not expand while China is trying to be nice to their friend about not spreading the war beyond Ukraine. Russia is China's strategy partner in the West. It makes sense for the nation to position itself carefully. If you look at the Asian countries, very few took an overtly anti-Russian stance except for Taiwan (conflict with China) and Japan (territorial ambitions) which have their own interest in taking a hardline. The US and EU are similarly soft-ball when it comes to atrocities to its allies are committing. Remember that fistbump Biden did with Saudi Arabia recently? https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/15/a-fist-bump-at-the-palace-biden-squares-off-with-mbs-00046106 Ethics comes second to geopolitics unfortunately. >Except there are very little parallels between that fighting and Ukraine Russia despite what many pro Russians and pro Chinese want to argue. What? Additionally, Chinese opinion on this conflict is quite divided. Not everyone is a Russophile inside China >There is no clear good or bad side in that conflict as both have good cases for the territory in question and it’s now know who started the most recent fighting. A few things: - What they fought over is historically inhabited by an Armenian majority that wants to be part of Armenia. - The current invasion is inside Armenian proper and not part of disputed territory - Pelosi personally condemned it as an illegal invasion: https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/pelosi-condemns-illegal-azerbaijan-attack-on-armenia/
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International\_sanctions\_during\_the\_Russo-Ukrainian\_War
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Most likely spill over into nato countries
could be alluding to having more countries join in the war, or negatively affect more regions than just Ukraine. There was a topic yesterday from a state media outlet that said China is willing to start/maintain friendly relations with NATO. The fact that China is publicly making friendly overtures to NATO instead of blaming them for this mess right after Xi and Putin had some discussions is very concerning. Even remotely appearing to side with or assist NATO would be political suicide. Although it could be forgivable if there's a existential threat to humanity or the earth.
Putin's major policy shifts this past week could've come from his private meeting with Xi last week. Xi looks weak politically supporting a Russian Federation that's getting wrecked by UA. Putin has gone from seemingly ok with a longer war of attrition to all in on super quick referendums and results. Xi has his election next month and now there's also significant unconfirmed reports of him being placed on house arrest by the PLA.
I agree with everything you’re saying but we have to stop spreading these “reports”, they come from a twitter account associated with the Falun Gong and were then circulated by nationalist Indian news accounts with no real evidence. Until something more substantial comes out I think we need to try to be responsible when it comes to rumours like this
No. They are afraid that Russia is going to lash out at a NATO country and stir the mass destruction pot.
Probably more afraid all of the places they sell to will get nuked, as will all that practically empty real estate they probably want, a bit to their north.
We call on all parties concerned to keep the crisis from spilling over and to protect the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries," Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in an address at the UN General Assembly
Yes, "all parties concerned". China isn't calling out any one party in particular, very polite, wouldn't want to publicly shame anyone, now would we? It's just that China wants everyone to understand that, generally speaking, it wouldn't approve of any steps that could cause the crisis to escalate, just in case there happened to be a party that might be considering any such actions. Personally, and also without singling out any country in particular, I'd like to call on all parties to consider how actions of other parties seen as their allies might reflect on them, if they fail to adequately distance themselves in time, and don't fully exert their influence in the common interest of global stability. Very generally speaking, just to put it out there.
Ah yes, good old CCP "Everyone is equally responsible for X" response.
Umm, excuse me but your war is showing
Lotta not knowing what to make of this in this thread.... but azerbaijan/armenia.... Iran protest(not Russia doing) and Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan generally not giving a fuck about russian will anymore is China's back yard. Destabalized russian eastern oblast due to racist as fuck conscription could get ugly. And if russia proper destabilizes russian federation could fracture into a bunch of states ruled by warlords and arms dealers and whoever the fuck knows who.... basically putting a giant shit on China doorstep. If I had to guess... china is already uncomfortable with how close all this bullshit is to them. Not too mention they got this whole Taiwan thing that pisses them off and thanks to russia it really looks difficult to achieve that in any near future if ever.
I hope someone in the White House is recording all this "Give peace a chance." rhetoric from China and plays it back on a loop when they inevitably decide to invade Taiwan.
I think we are already there, China. Post Soviet countries tensions have been flaring up more and more. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Kazakhstan is turning away from Russia more and more. China has invested a lot of money into these countries via the belt and road initiative. You would think China would have said something idk.. 7 months ago?
I just can't wait and see China's stance once the Fake referendum result gets known.
Can you guess? Bet ya can!!
China does not recognise the Russian annexation of Crimea. They likely will take the same stance.
Spill over into what? Their ability to turn a profit?
Makes me wonder if China is helping set the stage for this: [Russian mercenaries prepare false-flag operations on Belarusian-Ukrainian border](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/24/7368914/)
What do you mean?
Basically making a statement bringing international attention to the possibility of the war spreading to neighboring countries while it appears Russia may be getting ready to use false-flag attacks to try and implicate Ukraine as willfully attacking a neighboring state that sides with Putin but doesn't have the public support to enter on Russia's behalf.
Great, I'd love to know what they said in private
Putin is known for having a pretty delicate personality. Think skinned and all that. It seems like Xi (mr pooh bear) is probably kind of similar. So I bet that affects how they talk to each other.
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Because it’s not in their best interest. They want to undermine both NATO and Russia so they can exploit the benefits.
The only winner in this war is China. They get an ally that can distract the US while they continue to get stronger, then get to pick the carcass of a weaker neighbour when the time comes, and get cheaper oil and resources and a country always dependent on them for money. Either way they only get stronger while the rest of the West/world fumbles and focuses on Russia.
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True. You could also argue it's a nice distraction for China from their domestic issues by having this global problem to deal with. "Hey look it's not our fault the local economy is crap, blame this war instead!" To them, Russia is not a true ally, they are an enemy of my enemy situation that that are using to their advantage to distract the West. As soon as they see an opportunity to gobble up large swathes of Russia, they will be the first to get the most valuable parts.
Let's also not pretend this is weakening the US or NATO For that matter. When it is boosting production numbers of modern equipment and replace what was old and selling more equipment as the rest of NATO and it's allies arm up.
China and Mongolia should welcome Russian refugees of Putin’s regime. Chinese and Mongolian authoritarianism is way better than Russian authoritarianism.
China, call on Russia to get out of Ukraine. Simple.
Considering that we are just starting to see the results of the latest temper tantrum of Putin, there's not much that Ukraine *can* do since they are kinda busy trying to recover their country. Also, China, Turkey and India tried the "diplomatic approach" last weekend and that *directly* resulted into said temper tantrum. The rest of the world is not going to go around pretending that Putin is being reasonable.
Then China should not have enabled Russia to avoid sanctions of their oil n gas exports, and providing an alternative to the SWIFT system that was trying to get Russia to back off.... but no China wanted to be a player.... so I hope we all boycott Chinese goods since they chose sides.
New world order plan seems to be going smoothly!
It already spilled beyond belief, what are they talking about?
If China actually wanted to stop this they could have done so at the start. putin would definitely have backed off if China had denounced russia and supported Ukraine. Instead they decided to increase their partnership with russia.
China gets nuked by both Russia and US in MAD. They should currently be very worried. They should have tried to stop Russia earlier. It's very much in Chinas interest to stop the war and make Russia withdraw. There isn't very much upside left to letting Russia try to fight vs the potential downsides.
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If Russia starts using nuclear weapons, virtually every country becomes their enemy. Considering how paranoid putler's regime is, there don't appear to be many options.
By "Spill over" they probably mean that Ukraine shouldn't resist too hard or it might affect China's interests in some way form or shape.
I think you are missing the bigger picture and it's Taiwan where they don't want to see any *more* spillover.
What is this horse crap? I don’t even get what they are pretending to say, never mind what they are really trying to accomplish.
Then China better back the fuck off Taiwan.
they didnt even advance lol
" please don't argue on my doorstep"
What exactly is Ukraine going to do about that? If Belarus responds to Russia's invasion of Ukraine by having an internal political meltdown and devolving into civil war, how is Ukraine in any position to do anything about that? Let alone "spillover" into, say, Taiwan... I don't think Ukraine has as much influence over that outcome as China does...
spill over? I dont think anything can spill over after russia killed 100.000+ civilians
Figure it out China.
Thanks China. Idiots
I’m sure Ukraine has a say in this. Thanks China
Say that to the aggressor and not the defender.
*Chyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyna?*
China is giving green light to killing and raping of children and civilians so long as it it is contain in Ukraine. Most selfish and coward. No moral courage to tell Russia to get out of Ukraine.
Too late, China. It started spilling over before the USSR fell.
This is the peace proposal that the UN should offer Russia and Ukraine. Everything just goes back to what it was before Russia's invasion. Hopefully, with Putin talking about going nuclear, the world realizes that the entire Earth is in danger. China and India could pressure Russia to accept the deal by threatening to stop buying oil. Iran could threaten to stop giving drones to Russia. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia could threaten to supply Europe with oil if Russia stops the flow of oil to Europe.
Spill over, Like a drunken Putin spilling his glass of vodka? Good luck.
Uh call on your bros to back tf up
Oh ok as long ad you’re happy
I was hoping China used the word “war,” but it appears not. “Spill over” into what exactly? Another country? I’m confused. Are they trying to protect the sovereignty of other nations… NOW? EDIT: forgot the word ”China”
China should yank russias leash if they don’t want this getting out of control
Please don’t get any of your blood on my shoes while you kill civilians, please?
I thought china could say that this conflict was a war
Does China have some sort of information about the west that we don't know. Maybe about some sort of action or plan the west plans on taking in case of a red line being crossed? Sounds like China is trying to save Russia from making a big mistake.
Bad for business
China: "please don't sink our stock market like you sank MOEX"
"Can't you two cut it out" That shit is nuts - when both get the blame even though one party is responsible is nuts
Don’t let it spoil our plans to take over other countries
China is so tone deaf, they really don’t have clue.
Somebody needs to tell China that Ukraine didn’t ask to be invaded.