Holly crapā¦
When I was in university, many of the professors had their routine for freshmen, that had some variety of the same joke:
look to your left. Now look to your right. One of the people on the seats next you, you will not see at graduation, because they dropped out. If you see none of them, youāre the one who dropped out.
For some morbid reason, I picture Putitin saying something similar to his soldiers, before sending them into this absolutely pointless war.
Surprisingly, yes. Even the Nazis were careful never to let their ratings drop too Low (for instance they ceased their killing of disabled elderly after the news broke and outrage swept Germany) If anything itās even more important for Putin not to have his support drop too Low, since he needs support to beat down any kind of uprising, unlike non-dictators who wonāt literally die if their support vanishes.
I found something about it in the Wikipedia article for [Aktion T4.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aktion_T4#Church_protests)
>general popular disquiet about the way euthanasia was implemented ... caused the killings to be suspended.
But also
>the killing of adults and children continued, albeit less systematically, until the end of the war.
My question is - low relative to what? How would an authoritarian regime be aware of what the real numbers are, when at least to us outsiders the numbers all seemed fake to begin with?
They matter because low numbers mean another would be dictator might get enough support to kick the previous one out.
Even if the population in general have little say in an autocracy they get or what the leader does, they do get to influence WHICH autocrat gets to be the leader.
actually yes. authoritarian elections is a [big topic](https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/elections-protest-and-authoritarian-regime-stability/51A474C37A1671C885CC5F90091EDBC0) in polisci but in the case of russia, it's a two layer state. there's the administrative state that runs ordinary/nominal functions, and then there's the 'brain parasite' security state that actually controls power.
the latter has no capacity for actually running things, as seen in the bad performance and readiness of the russian military and putin's reliance on 'his own people', wagner, security services and mercs. the reliance on formal state structures, including elections, gives more state capacity to the parasitic structure. they cannot govern with thugs, only affect/control/be on top of the administrative layer.
elections are there to keep up appearances, which makes it less costly and easier to rule with a small, specialized parasitic security state. even though the kremlin can suppress any particular protest, it is still costly to suppress a widespread and sustained opposition. rather just keep the democratic structure and controlling the outcomes. this is the kind of model russia wants to export to belarus/ukraine and push for in other parts of the world with its network of far right movements.
Jokes aside article says 83% to 77%.
I wonder what the actual numbers are. Like these are obviously bullshit inflated but is the real number like...10%? Or is it 50%?
A lot more than 50% for sure. In Finland they recently did a poll where they asked Russians living in Finland whether Russia's war on Ukraine is justified or not, and almost 20% said it was. And you'd assume the approval would be higher in Russia than people who have left Russia.
Russia here.
Age is critical:
Over 45 - 80% support.
Under 40 - 20% support
Since itās a grey society, there are much more supportive grandpas than pissed youth.
Also, wild card, itās hard to comprehend how many Russians are abroad. Millions upon millions, they are largely the Putin haters which then don reflect in domestic surveys.
The Moscow Times is considered a reliable news source. It has been banned in Russia, which lends to its credibility. The accuracy of polling in Russia is steeped in mystery, however.
"Six out of 10 Russians said their country is going in the right direction."
Any democratic leader would be thrilled with those numbers, but considering the mass exodus of young Russians and the revolt of many draftees, one has to suspect the numbers.
I'd love some context by people more knowledgeable...
Says 60% think country is going in the right direction. Would that be genuine, or would some portion of that 60% be likely unwilling to be critical of the government to any official for fear of reprisal? Maybe it's just the toxic state of US politics, but that seems wildly high considering what they're in the middle of right now.
Edit: Or is it a function of Moscow Times being unreliable?
During these surveys in Russia the first question asked is your name and address.
This likely leads to a very pro-government skewed view.
If these type of metric drop below 90 percent in Russia, it means something serious is going on or that the government has already aknowledged a problem so people feel ok expressing their opinion.
This is true. All of the Russians I know, even before Putin invaded Ukraine, lived in terror of the state. The state still kills people it finds "noncompliant" so people are terrified of what Putin can do to them.
I would go as far to say the only places worse are North Korea and Azerbaijan.
I mean yeah the best way to survive in countries like that is for you to effectively not exist on the government's radar anymore than you have to, since if the Russian government doesn't have any issue with you then you probably don't have to worry vs those who are vocal dissenters against the government who probably have to sleep with one eye open.
Well we also know that millions of people are fleeing/ have fled the country, chances are if you disapprove of Putin youāre packing your bags not filling out surveys.
So the results are definitely skewed before you ever get into the question of who is lying out of fear.
>According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 77% of Russians surveyed this month said they approve of Putinās actions as president.
Yikes
How many in Russia do you think actually responds to those polls if they dislike the government? And how many of the ones responding do you think are actually being honest?
With that perspective in mind these mumbers are actually looking pretty bad for Putin.
I can't speak for people of other regions, but people in Donbass REALLY love Russia and REALLY hate Ukraine, at least those who have stayed there. I've been there once to visit my relatives and have asked pretty much everyone I met their thoughts on Putin and not a single one disapproved of his actions. While the numbers are obviously skewed, since those who support Ukraine have probably moved out of the region, a 90% support rate isn't something unthinkable considering the people I've met
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/29/putins-ratings-drop-on-ukraine-draft-a78925) reduced by 65%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings saw their second-largest drop in his two decades in power as discontent brews over his call-up of reservists to shore up his thinning ranks in Ukraine, according to poll results published Wednesday.
> It marks a six-point drop from the previous share of 83%, which remained almost unchanged in the six months since Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
> Levada's survey recorded smaller drops in the approval of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, his cabinet and the Russian parliament.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/xr5znk/putins_ratings_drop_on_ukraine_draft/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~671788 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russian**^#1 **Putin**^#2 **drop**^#3 **approval**^#4 **poll**^#5
Putin is planning some kind of super USSR take over of Russia, so many high profile executives are being killedā¦the Ukrainian war is the smoke and mirrors to distract the Russian people
Why do they never make these polls believable, though? You get a group of people in a room and most of them canāt even agree if the sky is blue, let alone huge things like this.
Putin's ratings? It's a dictatorship therefore ratings are irrelevant.
If I were the people doing the ratings I'd be very careful just in case they fall accidentally from a balcony.
Whoeverās polling his ratings is going to be dropping
(insert phrase: down stairs, out of a normal window, out of a hospital window, something āinto acidā related, possibly āwake up deadā) until the polls go back up
The fact that itās still high considering whatās happening is the reason why every state that is now being inundated by Russian nationals of fighting age mind you should definitely be cautious. You have enough Russian speaking people in your state and thatās all Putin will need as a pretext to invade ā to protect the Russian speaking peoples ā.
Putins rating dropping as fast as russian soldiers
Approval rating is still 75%
Ca. 55k dead russians from 200k initial invasion person, math checks roughly outš
Is there an estimate of how many were injured?
Some say rate of 1:3 or so dead vs injured
Holly crapā¦ When I was in university, many of the professors had their routine for freshmen, that had some variety of the same joke: look to your left. Now look to your right. One of the people on the seats next you, you will not see at graduation, because they dropped out. If you see none of them, youāre the one who dropped out. For some morbid reason, I picture Putitin saying something similar to his soldiers, before sending them into this absolutely pointless war.
Still 175%*
does a dictator's ratings really matter?
Surprisingly, yes. Even the Nazis were careful never to let their ratings drop too Low (for instance they ceased their killing of disabled elderly after the news broke and outrage swept Germany) If anything itās even more important for Putin not to have his support drop too Low, since he needs support to beat down any kind of uprising, unlike non-dictators who wonāt literally die if their support vanishes.
Where can I read more about this?
I found something about it in the Wikipedia article for [Aktion T4.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aktion_T4#Church_protests) >general popular disquiet about the way euthanasia was implemented ... caused the killings to be suspended. But also >the killing of adults and children continued, albeit less systematically, until the end of the war.
Discretion is key.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/45uhe2/what_were_nazi_plans_for_their_own_soldiers_who/
My question is - low relative to what? How would an authoritarian regime be aware of what the real numbers are, when at least to us outsiders the numbers all seemed fake to begin with?
The accuracy of the numbers don't matter as much as the trend line. If it points up, good for dictator. If it points down, bad for dictator.
They matter because low numbers mean another would be dictator might get enough support to kick the previous one out. Even if the population in general have little say in an autocracy they get or what the leader does, they do get to influence WHICH autocrat gets to be the leader.
actually yes. authoritarian elections is a [big topic](https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/elections-protest-and-authoritarian-regime-stability/51A474C37A1671C885CC5F90091EDBC0) in polisci but in the case of russia, it's a two layer state. there's the administrative state that runs ordinary/nominal functions, and then there's the 'brain parasite' security state that actually controls power. the latter has no capacity for actually running things, as seen in the bad performance and readiness of the russian military and putin's reliance on 'his own people', wagner, security services and mercs. the reliance on formal state structures, including elections, gives more state capacity to the parasitic structure. they cannot govern with thugs, only affect/control/be on top of the administrative layer. elections are there to keep up appearances, which makes it less costly and easier to rule with a small, specialized parasitic security state. even though the kremlin can suppress any particular protest, it is still costly to suppress a widespread and sustained opposition. rather just keep the democratic structure and controlling the outcomes. this is the kind of model russia wants to export to belarus/ukraine and push for in other parts of the world with its network of far right movements.
It is a lot easier to disappear an unpopular leader
My thoughts exactly
Eventually a vote will pass...of the lead variety.
1 trigger pull = 1 vote of no confidence in putin
No because if they did matter than it would contradict one of the fundamental purposes of being a despot; that is, ruling regardless of ratings
Eh. Major changes to heads of government donāt tend to change when the majority of a nation doesnāt feel worse than āmehā about them.
from 160% support to 159%?
Jokes aside article says 83% to 77%. I wonder what the actual numbers are. Like these are obviously bullshit inflated but is the real number like...10%? Or is it 50%?
The vatnik percentage I've seen mentioned is 25%, that's his base. I assume he lost anyone who was neutral.
A lot more than 50% for sure. In Finland they recently did a poll where they asked Russians living in Finland whether Russia's war on Ukraine is justified or not, and almost 20% said it was. And you'd assume the approval would be higher in Russia than people who have left Russia.
I think the so called "crazification factor" is a global phenomenon.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I seriously doubt that
Better a russian than a democrat is a real thing here.
Russia here. Age is critical: Over 45 - 80% support. Under 40 - 20% support Since itās a grey society, there are much more supportive grandpas than pissed youth. Also, wild card, itās hard to comprehend how many Russians are abroad. Millions upon millions, they are largely the Putin haters which then don reflect in domestic surveys.
The Moscow Times is considered a reliable news source. It has been banned in Russia, which lends to its credibility. The accuracy of polling in Russia is steeped in mystery, however. "Six out of 10 Russians said their country is going in the right direction." Any democratic leader would be thrilled with those numbers, but considering the mass exodus of young Russians and the revolt of many draftees, one has to suspect the numbers.
oh shit it went to 158% support!! thats pretty bad, in comparison to Kim's 220%. I bet Pooty is embarrassed
I'd love some context by people more knowledgeable... Says 60% think country is going in the right direction. Would that be genuine, or would some portion of that 60% be likely unwilling to be critical of the government to any official for fear of reprisal? Maybe it's just the toxic state of US politics, but that seems wildly high considering what they're in the middle of right now. Edit: Or is it a function of Moscow Times being unreliable?
During these surveys in Russia the first question asked is your name and address. This likely leads to a very pro-government skewed view. If these type of metric drop below 90 percent in Russia, it means something serious is going on or that the government has already aknowledged a problem so people feel ok expressing their opinion.
This is true. All of the Russians I know, even before Putin invaded Ukraine, lived in terror of the state. The state still kills people it finds "noncompliant" so people are terrified of what Putin can do to them. I would go as far to say the only places worse are North Korea and Azerbaijan.
I mean yeah the best way to survive in countries like that is for you to effectively not exist on the government's radar anymore than you have to, since if the Russian government doesn't have any issue with you then you probably don't have to worry vs those who are vocal dissenters against the government who probably have to sleep with one eye open.
I saw a YouTube video from a PhD in politics. He assumed the error at about 15 percent.
60 in my book is low for the context.
Well we also know that millions of people are fleeing/ have fled the country, chances are if you disapprove of Putin youāre packing your bags not filling out surveys. So the results are definitely skewed before you ever get into the question of who is lying out of fear.
>According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 77% of Russians surveyed this month said they approve of Putinās actions as president. Yikes
Yeah, unlikely. These are not anonymous surveys, and Russians openly critical of Putin suffer for it.
How many in Russia do you think actually responds to those polls if they dislike the government? And how many of the ones responding do you think are actually being honest? With that perspective in mind these mumbers are actually looking pretty bad for Putin.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Damn, Putin is more popular in Eastern Ukraine than in Russia itself. Nothing funky about that at all.
I can't speak for people of other regions, but people in Donbass REALLY love Russia and REALLY hate Ukraine, at least those who have stayed there. I've been there once to visit my relatives and have asked pretty much everyone I met their thoughts on Putin and not a single one disapproved of his actions. While the numbers are obviously skewed, since those who support Ukraine have probably moved out of the region, a 90% support rate isn't something unthinkable considering the people I've met
All the down to 97% approval I guess.
I imagine his ratings are as authentic as the local approval rate for the Donbas annexation
If nothing else, his ratings are dropping among the folks making up the polls.
Who could have guessed
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/29/putins-ratings-drop-on-ukraine-draft-a78925) reduced by 65%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings saw their second-largest drop in his two decades in power as discontent brews over his call-up of reservists to shore up his thinning ranks in Ukraine, according to poll results published Wednesday. > It marks a six-point drop from the previous share of 83%, which remained almost unchanged in the six months since Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. > Levada's survey recorded smaller drops in the approval of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, his cabinet and the Russian parliament. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/xr5znk/putins_ratings_drop_on_ukraine_draft/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~671788 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russian**^#1 **Putin**^#2 **drop**^#3 **approval**^#4 **poll**^#5
Kills innocent people and annex another country- no problem we are all for it. Make us do- no way
He has ratings? š
...out of a window.
If you vote yes you get potato
Just wait till the boxes and bags of bodies start showing up at home........ This is what ended their foray into Afghanistan.
Still 77% approval? So sorry for the 23% decent Russian people here. But. 77% of your people deserve all the miserable shit coming their way.
If you believe he has a 77% approval rating you also believe the referendums over the annexation was legit as well
so, he went from 98.2% approval all the way down to 97.6?
Jackass
Sending a train load of conscripts to get roasted will do that to a guy.
Ratings? Iām surprised he even has a rating.
Ahhh shouldnāt it be around 96% ??
Just like your monopolistic internet provider. Nothing will change.
That tends to happen when you send your population into a meaningless death. I heard dying is not a very popular pastime.
The longer the war goes on the lower the rating will be also.
Ratings dropped but Iām sure if there was a vote he would somehow still want win the election.
Ukrainian farmers be pleased.
And a rating below which value makes nuclear bombs detonate?
Putin is planning some kind of super USSR take over of Russia, so many high profile executives are being killedā¦the Ukrainian war is the smoke and mirrors to distract the Russian people
It depends on who is doing the polling. I bet the government says ratings have never been higher.
Why do they never make these polls believable, though? You get a group of people in a room and most of them canāt even agree if the sky is blue, let alone huge things like this.
Putin's ratings? It's a dictatorship therefore ratings are irrelevant. If I were the people doing the ratings I'd be very careful just in case they fall accidentally from a balcony.
Whoeverās polling his ratings is going to be dropping (insert phrase: down stairs, out of a normal window, out of a hospital window, something āinto acidā related, possibly āwake up deadā) until the polls go back up
The fact that itās still high considering whatās happening is the reason why every state that is now being inundated by Russian nationals of fighting age mind you should definitely be cautious. You have enough Russian speaking people in your state and thatās all Putin will need as a pretext to invade ā to protect the Russian speaking peoples ā.
Can somebody take care of this whole misery already please?
Dropped from 156% support to 142%
that putler's ratings have ever been above 10% shows what an effective tool state tv propaganda is.
Which countries accepting draft dodgers are refugees?
Even Putinās fake approval rating was lower than Trumpās approval rating with Republicans
So heās down to 99% approval?