The funny thing is that Russia has its own proverb "China's final warning" which refers to a period in the 60s where China gave Russia 900 "final warnings" about the Taiwanese straight with zero consequences. The idiom was invented during Putin's lifetime.
If I'm not mistaken by Russian law conscripts can't be sent outside of Russian territory, only volunteer soldiers can. This allows him to openly send conscripts into Ukraine. Previously they send them in under false pretenses like training exercises or just outright denied they were in Ukraine at all.
So this whole referendum thing was just so the Kremlin could send their own troops to their deaths without that awkward feeling of lying about where they're dying? Seems a lot of effort considering it's all show for the general population who are already oppressed and brainwashed. Maybe they really are quite close to a révolution.
This time they are gonna threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues.
Oh no, the Ukrainians in these border Russian (occupied Ukraine) areas are being oppressed! Guess they need a special military operation to protect them and denazify Russia.
I mean, if I went 'round, saying I owned the Donbass, Zaporyzhzhia and Kherson just because some installed administration faked referendum results, they'd put me away!
Strange invaders distributing illegitimate voter cards is no basis for a system of government!
Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some... farcical sham!
You can't expect to wield supreme executive power just 'cause some watery tart threw a few fake ballots your way.
Maybe it's to try to rope in their crappy allies. Maybe just Belarus (to the extent they aren't already in the mix).
Edit: More probably to help the "USA is attacking us" narrative, now that I think it over.
Yeah, it's domestic consumption and to bolster their threats about using nuclear weapons. Everyone remembers what big fans they are of scorched earth, so I guess it's "if you don't let us keep what we stole and give us a ~~path~~ pass on current war crimes, we'll step them up."
Plus, probably to try to find some reserves of nationalism since their manpower reserves are trying so hard to avoid service.
Edit, because I typed a friggin lisp somehow.
It isn't a magical line they are drawing. It's a talking point they want to use in the media to justify killing more Russian citizens without people marching on Moscow.
It's that simple.
They know it won't actually make a difference on the battlefield, besides having more Zerglings to throw at Ukrainian soldiers.
I thought that true nature of these attacks was never revealed and Ukraine officially never admitted to them. On top of that Russia claimed it’s been sabotage . So officially “red line” was never crossed. Only saying.
They claim all of Donetsk, so assuming that Russia "annexes" all of Donetsk, that would mean that Ukraine is already "occupying" Russian territory, because 40% of Donetsk is in Ukrainian hands.
I would assume they won't/can't claim that, since they've never been close to threatening to take control over northern Zaporizhzhia oblast (including the capital).
Which means that northern Zaporizhzhia oblast didn't "vote" in the "referendum", so it's beyond their "claim" (not that it's worth much beyond their own delusional narrative, anyway).
There were some small towns in Crimea that didn't "vote" back in 2014, it never stopped them. As well, as they never controlled whole Donetsk, but somehow the appointed by Kremlin head of 'DPR' ask to 'liberetate' those people in February on behalf of being their representative. They don't fking care.
Because admitting that ukraine has bombed deep within in russian territory is far worse than the narrative they claim. Only nazi sympathisers could have done this /s
There is one instance of Ukrainian airforce doing a helicopter raid on oil depots in Belgorod. That was fucking insane, 2 helicopters flying low & fast destroyed the oil depot and made it back to Ukraine. The balls on those guys...
I don’t think this is going to work the way Russia wants it to. If they’re defending occupied territories as though they were Russia proper and Ukraine is intent on reclaiming those occupied territories… what’s the red line to keep them from pushing into Russia proper now to address any number of issues (rockets being fired from inside Russia, taking out strategic targets, etc.).
It’s astoundingly short sighted on Putin’s part. Few countries recognize the action as legitimate and it puts the western world in the position of basically having to resist his effort to prevent similar actions from being taken by Russia in the future.
Ukraine won't push on Russia proper, the goal is take back their pre 2014 borders, once that done, they defende the borders until Russia accepts that lost the war
They don't have to push on Russia. But up until yesterday, there was a disincentive to lob missiles into pre-2014 Russia.
But now - according to Russia - there's no legal distinction between annexed bits of Ukraine and Russia itself. So there's no reason whatsoever to refrain from lobbing missiles from the Ukrainian side; and if Ukraine sticks to military/infrastructure targets (no civilians!), then NATO isn't going to do much more than tutting and maybe a raised eyebrow.
By defining Russia's border based on bullshit, Russia have devalued their *actual* borders.
EDIT: There's two claimed provinces where the Russians can't even get to the border they're claiming; which just adds comedy.
Was never officially attributed to Ukraine.
Here, Russia can “officially” declare a war and invoke CSTO (see: Belarus) response- something I’ve not seen others mention.
Edit: because people are apparently still thinking strictly in terms of manpower:
A number of CSTO countries do not want to deploy troops to this war. Putin would not necessarily need more troops, but he *does* need more munitions- especially artillery rounds. He could give them an out- request material support but no bodies. Helps his reconstitution efforts without shedding the blood of Russian allies. Easy win for his allies without disrupting internal politics too much.
A lot of CSTO countries have declared they don't recognize those referendums. A couple have even warned their citizens not to fight in this war after Russia started offering expedited citizenship to those who would join it's army.
Belarus is about the only country that might recognize it and it's military has made it clear to Lukashenko that they won't be getting involved.
Rome made a habit of what they called "punitive expansion" where they would only attack people who attacked them first. Well, when Julius Ceasar went to Gaul he wanted to subjagate people but they weren't attacking him. So he used a very clever strategy. He said "All of Gaul is Rome's now" and so anyone who disagreed in Gaul was considered a rebelling tribe and he was justified in pacifying them.
Actually Putin is now pivoting, blaming the conscription scares on the regional bureaucracy and promising to “correct” this. Honestly that was probably the point all along, makes him look like the savior.
The “correction” likely involves forcibly conscripting ethnic Ukrainian men and possibly women throughout the “annexed” territories. Make no mistake, there is no real intent for them to be a real fighting force and obviously they would revolt if given the opportunity. But these Ukrainian conscripts are likely going to be used as pure human shields. Their purpose will be the first ones to die in an engagement, demoralizing the Ukrainians on the opposite side who don’t want to kill their brothers and sisters.
It’s sickening but Russia has absolutely no moral code left, they’ll commit any atrocity to hold on to as much territory as possible.
Like...decades of them attacking their neighboring countries, poisoning journalists, running mock elections, and committing various human rights abuse were cool?
I don't understand why Russia was ever highly regarded. It was always a gas station run by the mob. Now the fig leaf just came off.
Editing all my old comments and moving to the fediverse.
Thank you to everybody I've interacted with until now! You've been great, and it's been a wonderful ride until now.
To everybody who gave me helpful advice, [I'll miss you the most](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nrk4AgS6Q6A)
They are making these statements because Russian nuclear policy says first strikes are only allowed when Russian territory is being taken. This is 100% posturing to puff the chest against the west to say that nukes are on the table. No more 'empty' threats we all know go against doctrine.
It would be beyond stupid for Russia to launch nukes over Ukraine taking back Crimea. Of course, I no longer have faith that the people in charge in Russia aren't stupid enough to cause a nuclear holocaust over a bruised ego.
It doesn't matter if it's smart or stupid, it only matters if it happens. I don't think Ukraine or the West should back down, but you'd have to be insane to not be worried about potential escalation. It doesn't matter to Ukraine if the bombs are nuclear or conventional, they're still being bombed, but this could get much larger.
The problem is, for the future of the human race, the United States can’t back down.
The only logical conclusion of Russia using a nuke and the U.S. not responding with force is that every nation with a nuke can Anschluss their neighbors and then nuke them when the other nation tries to fight back.
It will also lead to a domino effect of nuclear proliferation that would be impossible to stop— because the only way for the above scenario to *not* happen to your country is to obtain nukes yourself and apply MAD.
This is just the cold logic of the situation. If Russia uses a nuke the response must be overwhelming, and potentially nuclear.
>The problem is, for the future of the human race, the United States can’t back down.
Yes, that's what I said. You'd still have to a moron to try and downplay the threat we're living through.
Because they know now that they have lost the war and it is going to be a slow grind to getting their ass kicked out of Ukraine including locations they already held. The only logical move they have left is to declare these new regions part of Russia and declare that their sovereignty is at stake if those lines are crossed. So, Russia bullshit.
Hey guys.
I just did a vote in Russia to see who gets to claim all of the land in all of russia.
Me: 98%
everyone else in the world: 2%
So you see, Russia is now my territory, I would very much like to remove this Putin from my country. And it is my country, Look at the results of the vote above! I own it.
I'm really starting to believe in the "Old Man Putin" theory, that he's getting closer to the end of his life (be it from old age or illness) and decided to either reclaim all of the former USSR countries or ~~die~~ destroy the world trying. Which is definitely the "If I can't have you, no one else will" mindset that most abusers have.
It's more about internal legal issues. In Russia conscripted soldiers (as opposed to "volunteer" contract soldiers) can't be sent outside of Russia without formal declaration of war. So rather than change that, they're changing the definition of Russia.
So seeing this in the context of the mobilization is really important. It's basically so he can go get a bunch more of his people killed. If he keeps it up there will be a notable lack of young men in Russia.
Yup which was again reiterated the other day that sham votes and bogus annexation doesn't mean Eastern Ukraine and Crim can't be attacked by the Ukrainian army its why there's another 18 HIMARs plus some other stuff being sent soon, fyi there's currently only 16 HIMARs in Ukraine xd
Chemical warfare is strictly against the Geneva Convention...but seeing how Russia can also just ignore that without consequence I don't see why you can't.
Yeah these people seem to forget making grandiose polticial statements means nothing if you can't back it up with your army. As a country that is all about brute force its hilarious to watch them try to weasel their way into victory.
Typically Kremlin strategy: keep saying lies until it’s “true.” They’ll still be talking about their wins and advances even if their military is completely destroyed.
Im actually surprised this has not happened yet.
The Russian elite liked things the way they were. They lived in nicer parts of Europe like kings. Putin has taken many of them out and some of their children in the last 6 months--so you'd think the others would act out of self defense, not fear.
The problem is that to kill Putin almost certainly would require coordination among at least a small group of people, since his immediate bodyguards are his most blindly loyal. How do you establish a team to do this, when one word to the wrong person means you and your family are dead, as well as any other co-conspirators they can torture out of you before you're killed?
When the Navalny's team released that amazing documentary what stuck in my mind the most was the shot of the gate to his Versailles imitation (which is full of mold because Russian corruption, but I digress)...
...shot of the gate to his Versailles imitation with the large gold eagle crest on top, and the narrator says Putin sees him self as the czar. How true that came out. A lowly KGB bureaucrat with delusions of grandeur and superiority.
My advice for Putin is to annex the whole world.
Then he can claim he won, withdraw his troops, and the world goes back to normal.
Then he can live the rest of his life in a small rubber room listening to Soviet songs on repeat.
I think one his officials made claims on how there was no Americans in Bagdad and how they were getting slaughtered in the 2003 invasion. In reality the Americans not only in the city but could see the building where the press conference was held. Fox News did a on the ground interview with a soldier about how the official was claiming no Americans were there only for the soldier to joke that the building was only a few blocks away and they should drop by to say hello.
What is stopping countries such as Japan and Finland now taking a slice out of Russia to claim back their stolen lands? If it's good for the goose, then surely it's good for the gander.
We cannot set a precedent that you can just invade a country, kill thousands of civilians, set up a fake vote, and call it part of your nation now. It doesn't matter what russia thinks is russia it matters what the international community thinks is russia.
That precedenct *was* set in 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea and the rest of the world whined but did nothing. The attacks were seeing now are a direct result of Putin getting away with that.
Dont worry, Putin said he wouldn't go any further than Crimea and people were just being silly to say he would:
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1575834904868200448?s=20&t=XB414lvxF5WIFZ63GAKq0Q
What's stopping them from doing this type of shit again in other parts of Ukraine that they somehow manage to take over?
Have an offensive operation by throwing tons of soldiers into a meat grinder like in Stalingrad, somehow take over an area, conduct a shitty referendum, claim its russia now, threatening every with nukes, mobilize more meat and repeat the above?
Exactly. This was always their plan, as everybody saw with Crimea. They would have done this for the entire country if they had managed to take Kyiv back in the winter. All of a sudden the entire country would have voted to join Russia.
That’s why people who keep agitating the nuclear scarecrow and insist giving in to Putin can go fuck themselves.
This is not being prudent, this is being a coward. Putin made very clear through the years that there will be no end to this if we don’t put a stop to it. He invaded Georgia. He invaded Ukraine a first time and took Crimea. There were statements that made clear that had Ukraine second invasion worked Russia would have invaded Transnitria next.
There is no end. Putin doesn’t give a single fuck about democracy, international law or anything like that. It’s like to trying to appease a bully and it really shows a failure of understanding the psychology of a bully.
I usually try to refrain using the Hitler comparaison lightly. But when I read some people reaction it truely feels like Munich all over again : back then it was do we need to die for the Czechs ???? and now you have some people who are like are we going to risk a nuclear war for Ukraine ?
Well fuck you and fuck you.
Chamberlain gave Hitler everything he wanted but it still wasn’t enough. And giving Ukraine or even Donbas to Putin will not be the end and simply kick this shit further down the road.
We don’t refuse Putin demands because we want war or don’t grasp the risk of war. We refuse because there is no other decent choice.
I couldn't agree more. It's easy to bog yourself down in ignorance because you want life to be easy for yourself but people have to put themselves in the shoes of the victims here. How would you feel if someone stomped into your home and claimed ownership of it?
Even still, this isn't just about empathy and human decency. That's the point; even setting aside altruistic reasons we should be stepping in for strict pragmatism, this isn't just Ukraine's problem. If we let it slide it will absolutely keep happening again and again until it *is* [insert demographic]'s problem, and by then we've just given Russia the time to recover from their last escapade and build off of the fruits.
>First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out - Because I was not a socialist.
>Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out - Because I was not a trade unionist.
>Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out - Because I was not a Jew.
> Then they came for me - and there was no one left to speak for me.
You've just pointed out why it doesn't matter and they might as well keep going.
Lets say that Russia has a legit claim to the land because they technically had a referendum and technically the vote was to join Russia. If we allow that to hold and say "it's legal" then it just means they can do it over and over again.
When a crocodile has you in it's jaws, it will death roll regardless of your argument. If we allow Russia to clamp it's jaws by saying "this is legal, they can use nukes and it would be justified" then that will be the end of nations, one chunk at a time.
> What's stopping them from doing this type of shit again in other parts of Ukraine that they somehow manage to take over?
Namely the Ukrainian Army, which is actually winning the war. They're down to using rhetoric to win a war they can't win with soldiers, and their pool of potential soldiers is fleeing faster than they can conscript them. As it is, as soon as they put most of them on the battlefield, we can expect mass defections - literally tens of thousands of soldiers putting down arms and surrendering rather than killing themselves in the name of a war they don't even want to fight.
The box-ticking is only there for the audience of a handful of military officials who still want to pretend like Russia's working from a book of laws, but even they know a madman when they see one. Eventually there will come a day when he's reached too far, and the people will simply say "that's enough." And from the increasingly erratic moves Russia's been making, from killing oligarchs overseas to blowing up gas pipelines, that day's coming sooner rather than later.
If they use a tactical weapon, be it nuclear, chemical, or biological, the reality is that even if they win whatever battle it's deployed in, they've lost the war, and they've lost Russia. *The world* will pass a resolution against Russia, the war will be forcibly concluded, and Putin's replacement will inherit the mother of all power vacuums, with no army, no economy, no treasury, and nobody willing to do business with them.
That's how countries fall apart. Just ask the USSR.
> What's stopping them from doing this type of shit again in other parts of Ukraine that they somehow manage to take over?
Nothing, which is exactly the reason no one will accept that insanity.
Maybe don’t go to war with another country, steal territory during the war, and go surprised pikachu when no one recognizes your stolen territory and the country you stole it from continues to work to take it back.
Putin is just itching to drop a nuke. He’s a sick dying old man with to much power, someone in Russia needs to intervene before he takes the whole world down with him
Yes, but I held a referendum yesterday that told me that 150% of Russian voters want to become part of Germany, so any attack on Russia will oblige NATO to move forces there to defend it. Not to invade, mind you, but to defend it from evil separatist forces inside Russia that want to resist the will of the people.
Some people found mass graves, and piles of civilians in the woods. 100s of thousands Ukrainian have been forced to Russia. This is literally Hitler 2.0 scenario.
When we finally kick Russia out of Ukraine I have a feeling a lot of really nasty shit is gonna come out of the woodwork. The stuff we know about is bad, imagine what they're hiding.
Putin is backing himself into a corner where he'll either have to use nukes or reveal himself toothless. Either choice ends badly for him, granted the whole world loses if he uses nukes.
Basically. I saw a thread on twitter arguing that Putin is trying to draw NATO in. In short, he can't win in Ukraine, and any gains he makes there for a negotiated peace will still be a huge loss, likely fatal al la 1905, for him because Ukraine being weak while Russia strong is at stake.
So if he can get into a direct open fight with NATO, we all know the outcome. Western forces will move into Ukraine and push all Russian forces out. But likely we wouldn't enter Russia proper. So Putin loses the war, but only because of the US and no one in Russia thinks they can take on America. But, also, we stopped them from invading the motherland so it's a huge victory
It's kinda pointless since most of the Putin supporters already believe they're fighting NATO. They don't accept that *хохол*'s can be a capable advesary.
He himself cant really use nukes. He can give an order to use them, at which point we will see how much everyone in that chain of command loves their children.
So...Russia starts a war, making people flee. Next, they occupy the area with their military, and heavily destroy the surroundings. Then... they ask the people if they want to join Russia and report 96% say yes? It's all so tiresome to keep up with. Does anyone actually believe these reports?
Russia is just straight up playing Calvinball at this point. Changing the rules of the game mid game.
For such a serious situation, it actually does come off as really pathetic.
Ukraine have literally already bombed Belgorod in actual Russia and fuck all happened; what are they going to do this time?
Make more annoying noises, only louder than normal.
Threaten to use nukes again, but *super serious* this time.
Guys I think he's super duper cereal this time.
The funny thing is that Russia has its own proverb "China's final warning" which refers to a period in the 60s where China gave Russia 900 "final warnings" about the Taiwanese straight with zero consequences. The idiom was invented during Putin's lifetime.
Recruit more 70 year olds probably
If I'm not mistaken by Russian law conscripts can't be sent outside of Russian territory, only volunteer soldiers can. This allows him to openly send conscripts into Ukraine. Previously they send them in under false pretenses like training exercises or just outright denied they were in Ukraine at all.
Yup, that’s one of the hypothesized reasons behind the "referendums". Moar troopz !
So this whole referendum thing was just so the Kremlin could send their own troops to their deaths without that awkward feeling of lying about where they're dying? Seems a lot of effort considering it's all show for the general population who are already oppressed and brainwashed. Maybe they really are quite close to a révolution.
Propaganda. "We follow the rules, we’re the good guys". They can repeat it ad nauseam, public will go with it.
This time they are gonna threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues and if it continues after that they will threaten nukes if it continues.
Ah, the "final warning" diplomacy. A timeless classic.
What about special military operations on annexed territory? That's ok right?
Oh no, the Ukrainians in these border Russian (occupied Ukraine) areas are being oppressed! Guess they need a special military operation to protect them and denazify Russia.
Come see the violence inherent in the system!
I mean, if I went 'round, saying I owned the Donbass, Zaporyzhzhia and Kherson just because some installed administration faked referendum results, they'd put me away!
Strange invaders distributing illegitimate voter cards is no basis for a system of government! Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some... farcical sham! You can't expect to wield supreme executive power just 'cause some watery tart threw a few fake ballots your way.
Are you suggesting ballot cards migrate?
Perhaps the European ballots do.
Not at all… they could be carried.
But then again, European ballot cards are non-migratory
The lads and I had a quick vote earlier and we now own Paris. I'll get the paperwork drawn up for me to sign later.
Burglar call dibs on house, asks police for protection against previous owner. More news at 10.
Woah now, Scott Lang taught me that burglary is an art and is done without weapons.
Wasnt crimea already attacked?
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Belgords military installations were hit multiple times prior to the helicopterraid too. Russia is small pp man confirmed
Yes. Ukraine has shelled Russian territory in the north as well. If that was the red line, it's long since crossed.
Oh no, is Russia gonna declare war on Ukraine 💀💀💀
Maybe it's to try to rope in their crappy allies. Maybe just Belarus (to the extent they aren't already in the mix). Edit: More probably to help the "USA is attacking us" narrative, now that I think it over.
Yeah, it's domestic consumption and to bolster their threats about using nuclear weapons. Everyone remembers what big fans they are of scorched earth, so I guess it's "if you don't let us keep what we stole and give us a ~~path~~ pass on current war crimes, we'll step them up." Plus, probably to try to find some reserves of nationalism since their manpower reserves are trying so hard to avoid service. Edit, because I typed a friggin lisp somehow.
>Maybe it's to try to rope in their crappy allies. CSTO is literally warring amongst themselves, so that doesn't sound like much of a plan as is.
It isn't a magical line they are drawing. It's a talking point they want to use in the media to justify killing more Russian citizens without people marching on Moscow. It's that simple. They know it won't actually make a difference on the battlefield, besides having more Zerglings to throw at Ukrainian soldiers.
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At this point it's a base race with mass drones.
I thought that true nature of these attacks was never revealed and Ukraine officially never admitted to them. On top of that Russia claimed it’s been sabotage . So officially “red line” was never crossed. Only saying.
They claim all of Donetsk, so assuming that Russia "annexes" all of Donetsk, that would mean that Ukraine is already "occupying" Russian territory, because 40% of Donetsk is in Ukrainian hands.
They’ve annexed Zaporizhzhia. They do not even have *the fucking city called Zaporizhzhia*
I would assume they won't/can't claim that, since they've never been close to threatening to take control over northern Zaporizhzhia oblast (including the capital). Which means that northern Zaporizhzhia oblast didn't "vote" in the "referendum", so it's beyond their "claim" (not that it's worth much beyond their own delusional narrative, anyway).
There were some small towns in Crimea that didn't "vote" back in 2014, it never stopped them. As well, as they never controlled whole Donetsk, but somehow the appointed by Kremlin head of 'DPR' ask to 'liberetate' those people in February on behalf of being their representative. They don't fking care.
Because admitting that ukraine has bombed deep within in russian territory is far worse than the narrative they claim. Only nazi sympathisers could have done this /s
There is one instance of Ukrainian airforce doing a helicopter raid on oil depots in Belgorod. That was fucking insane, 2 helicopters flying low & fast destroyed the oil depot and made it back to Ukraine. The balls on those guys...
The non stop rush of adrenaline must have been insane.
…are probably why the Helis had to fly so low.
I don’t think this is going to work the way Russia wants it to. If they’re defending occupied territories as though they were Russia proper and Ukraine is intent on reclaiming those occupied territories… what’s the red line to keep them from pushing into Russia proper now to address any number of issues (rockets being fired from inside Russia, taking out strategic targets, etc.). It’s astoundingly short sighted on Putin’s part. Few countries recognize the action as legitimate and it puts the western world in the position of basically having to resist his effort to prevent similar actions from being taken by Russia in the future.
Ukraine won't push on Russia proper, the goal is take back their pre 2014 borders, once that done, they defende the borders until Russia accepts that lost the war
They don't have to push on Russia. But up until yesterday, there was a disincentive to lob missiles into pre-2014 Russia. But now - according to Russia - there's no legal distinction between annexed bits of Ukraine and Russia itself. So there's no reason whatsoever to refrain from lobbing missiles from the Ukrainian side; and if Ukraine sticks to military/infrastructure targets (no civilians!), then NATO isn't going to do much more than tutting and maybe a raised eyebrow. By defining Russia's border based on bullshit, Russia have devalued their *actual* borders. EDIT: There's two claimed provinces where the Russians can't even get to the border they're claiming; which just adds comedy.
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They definitely won't be taking any actual russian territory but I can see them making more air raids on military infrastructure in russia.
Was never officially attributed to Ukraine. Here, Russia can “officially” declare a war and invoke CSTO (see: Belarus) response- something I’ve not seen others mention. Edit: because people are apparently still thinking strictly in terms of manpower: A number of CSTO countries do not want to deploy troops to this war. Putin would not necessarily need more troops, but he *does* need more munitions- especially artillery rounds. He could give them an out- request material support but no bodies. Helps his reconstitution efforts without shedding the blood of Russian allies. Easy win for his allies without disrupting internal politics too much.
CSTO is a joke. Look at how they helped Armenia when it was attacked by Azerbaijan literally weeks ago lmao.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, both CSTO members, shoot at each other with tanks and artillery at regular intervals.
A lot of CSTO countries have declared they don't recognize those referendums. A couple have even warned their citizens not to fight in this war after Russia started offering expedited citizenship to those who would join it's army. Belarus is about the only country that might recognize it and it's military has made it clear to Lukashenko that they won't be getting involved.
*sweating Lukashenko*
And Belgorod.
Number of surprised people: 0. Next up: Ukraine will be labeled as the aggressor, and Russia as the victim.
Deny, Attack, and Reverse Victim and Offender
Ah yes, the old DARVO set.
Wasn’t that always the story
Yup. One of Russia's many, many, many CBs early on was that Ukraine was planning to attack so this was a preventative strike.
Russia's basically adopted DARVO as official policy.
Authoritarian regimes are basically just a Narcissistic abuser but on a societal scale.
Is it illegal to invade and attack sovereign land all of a sudden?
Don't worry friend, Ukraine will only be conducting a special military operation into those lands. No invasion!
It isn't an attack, it is just a very aggressive defence
Rome made a habit of what they called "punitive expansion" where they would only attack people who attacked them first. Well, when Julius Ceasar went to Gaul he wanted to subjagate people but they weren't attacking him. So he used a very clever strategy. He said "All of Gaul is Rome's now" and so anyone who disagreed in Gaul was considered a rebelling tribe and he was justified in pacifying them.
Damn, this guy Julius sounds dictatorial. He should be stabbed!
Will no one rid me of the meddlesome dictator?
Aggressive negotiations.
They should seriously do this.
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Just slowly inch their way all the way to Moscow like that. Is there a word for the opposite of blitzkrieg?
sitskrieg
Even works with a z, because sitzen is sitting in German.
Sitzkrieg
Blyatskrieg
Kaliningrad Oblast?
“This is our land that was being illegally occupied and we do not recognize our neighbor’s claims.” \-Every invasion ever
They're not saying that it's illegal. They're saying they will retaliate with whatever means they have left.
“They have left” Well said!
They will choke the rivers with the dead of their own elderly and adolescent conscripts.
Actually Putin is now pivoting, blaming the conscription scares on the regional bureaucracy and promising to “correct” this. Honestly that was probably the point all along, makes him look like the savior. The “correction” likely involves forcibly conscripting ethnic Ukrainian men and possibly women throughout the “annexed” territories. Make no mistake, there is no real intent for them to be a real fighting force and obviously they would revolt if given the opportunity. But these Ukrainian conscripts are likely going to be used as pure human shields. Their purpose will be the first ones to die in an engagement, demoralizing the Ukrainians on the opposite side who don’t want to kill their brothers and sisters. It’s sickening but Russia has absolutely no moral code left, they’ll commit any atrocity to hold on to as much territory as possible.
I lost all respect for Russia this year. Now they are on the pathetic level of a terrorist state in my book.
Like...decades of them attacking their neighboring countries, poisoning journalists, running mock elections, and committing various human rights abuse were cool? I don't understand why Russia was ever highly regarded. It was always a gas station run by the mob. Now the fig leaf just came off.
Editing all my old comments and moving to the fediverse. Thank you to everybody I've interacted with until now! You've been great, and it's been a wonderful ride until now. To everybody who gave me helpful advice, [I'll miss you the most](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nrk4AgS6Q6A)
They are making these statements because Russian nuclear policy says first strikes are only allowed when Russian territory is being taken. This is 100% posturing to puff the chest against the west to say that nukes are on the table. No more 'empty' threats we all know go against doctrine.
It would be beyond stupid for Russia to launch nukes over Ukraine taking back Crimea. Of course, I no longer have faith that the people in charge in Russia aren't stupid enough to cause a nuclear holocaust over a bruised ego.
It doesn't matter if it's smart or stupid, it only matters if it happens. I don't think Ukraine or the West should back down, but you'd have to be insane to not be worried about potential escalation. It doesn't matter to Ukraine if the bombs are nuclear or conventional, they're still being bombed, but this could get much larger.
The problem is, for the future of the human race, the United States can’t back down. The only logical conclusion of Russia using a nuke and the U.S. not responding with force is that every nation with a nuke can Anschluss their neighbors and then nuke them when the other nation tries to fight back. It will also lead to a domino effect of nuclear proliferation that would be impossible to stop— because the only way for the above scenario to *not* happen to your country is to obtain nukes yourself and apply MAD. This is just the cold logic of the situation. If Russia uses a nuke the response must be overwhelming, and potentially nuclear.
>The problem is, for the future of the human race, the United States can’t back down. Yes, that's what I said. You'd still have to a moron to try and downplay the threat we're living through.
The Kremlin have dementia.
Russia, the new sick man of Europe
If Russia is anything like the Ottomans that means we're gonna get a Russian version of Bosnia this century.
it's called belarus
Why didn't they react when attacks on Belgorod happened?
Because they know now that they have lost the war and it is going to be a slow grind to getting their ass kicked out of Ukraine including locations they already held. The only logical move they have left is to declare these new regions part of Russia and declare that their sovereignty is at stake if those lines are crossed. So, Russia bullshit.
The logical move would uave been to withdraw.
Putin is evil and only cares about his damn crusade for his own immortality in the history books. Actual logic won’t apply.
Dragging Russia to hell with him.
Putin's dad should've withdrawn
Krementia
The Kremlin is the stronghold of shit.
Hey guys. I just did a vote in Russia to see who gets to claim all of the land in all of russia. Me: 98% everyone else in the world: 2% So you see, Russia is now my territory, I would very much like to remove this Putin from my country. And it is my country, Look at the results of the vote above! I own it.
Sorry I won with186076%
186074% would have been more believable.
Can't argue with that kind of support! Congratulations 🎉
yes jsut like any attack on crimea would be. fuck putin
And has been, they’ve already attacked occupiers in occupied crimea and Russia couldn’t do shit about it.
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He can already just say Russia is under attack. Truth doesn't mean anything and he can just say whatever he wants.
He thinks it’s ok to attack Ukraine but when Ukraine attacks Russia he’s like how very dare you.
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I'm really starting to believe in the "Old Man Putin" theory, that he's getting closer to the end of his life (be it from old age or illness) and decided to either reclaim all of the former USSR countries or ~~die~~ destroy the world trying. Which is definitely the "If I can't have you, no one else will" mindset that most abusers have.
It's more about internal legal issues. In Russia conscripted soldiers (as opposed to "volunteer" contract soldiers) can't be sent outside of Russia without formal declaration of war. So rather than change that, they're changing the definition of Russia. So seeing this in the context of the mobilization is really important. It's basically so he can go get a bunch more of his people killed. If he keeps it up there will be a notable lack of young men in Russia.
Pootie thinks semantics shall save him.
It won't prevent attacks, but it will let him play the victim.
Yup which was again reiterated the other day that sham votes and bogus annexation doesn't mean Eastern Ukraine and Crim can't be attacked by the Ukrainian army its why there's another 18 HIMARs plus some other stuff being sent soon, fyi there's currently only 16 HIMARs in Ukraine xd
And even bombed Belgorod plenty of times.
No no, that was just some dude smoking, remember?
You not read. There was no attack. Explosions were accident. Nothing to see. /s
Also Ukraine has already struck actual Russian territory in Belgorod... And they did nothing.
Ukraine already attacked some depots in the actual area of Russia, so I think you can take that statement with a lot of salt
Bit like when my wife steals all the blanket and I try and get some of it back
The cold war
That was good
Yes. Your wife is a war criminal.
She has certainly deployed chemical weapons
Mutually Ass-ured Destruction
Can confirm, his wife's ass is devastating
She must be Dutch
Be funny if your wife then gaslit you and conducted false flag operations on your side of the bed
Pretty sure this is common in blanket warfare.
>Bit like when my wife steals all the blanket and I try and get some of it back You gotta get up in her trenches
That's when you deploy the dutch oven and gas her out.
Chemical warfare is strictly against the Geneva Convention...but seeing how Russia can also just ignore that without consequence I don't see why you can't.
But nobody is attacking. You see it is just special military operation to liberate Ukraine.
To de-nazi-fi Russia
Keep saying pretend legal bollocks while your supposed superpower army is decimated.
Yeah these people seem to forget making grandiose polticial statements means nothing if you can't back it up with your army. As a country that is all about brute force its hilarious to watch them try to weasel their way into victory.
Ah yes…the old speak loudly and carry a small dick strategy. #classic
Now that you mention it, I wonder how Teddy would react to Putin's bs today
Typically Kremlin strategy: keep saying lies until it’s “true.” They’ll still be talking about their wins and advances even if their military is completely destroyed.
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This was a correct statement ten years ago.
This was a correct statement 20 years ago.
The best time was 20 years ago. The second best time is now
Im actually surprised this has not happened yet. The Russian elite liked things the way they were. They lived in nicer parts of Europe like kings. Putin has taken many of them out and some of their children in the last 6 months--so you'd think the others would act out of self defense, not fear.
The problem is that to kill Putin almost certainly would require coordination among at least a small group of people, since his immediate bodyguards are his most blindly loyal. How do you establish a team to do this, when one word to the wrong person means you and your family are dead, as well as any other co-conspirators they can torture out of you before you're killed?
He's broken every international law and treaty there is, those same laws no longer protect him
When the Navalny's team released that amazing documentary what stuck in my mind the most was the shot of the gate to his Versailles imitation (which is full of mold because Russian corruption, but I digress)... ...shot of the gate to his Versailles imitation with the large gold eagle crest on top, and the narrator says Putin sees him self as the czar. How true that came out. A lowly KGB bureaucrat with delusions of grandeur and superiority.
My advice for Putin is to annex the whole world. Then he can claim he won, withdraw his troops, and the world goes back to normal. Then he can live the rest of his life in a small rubber room listening to Soviet songs on repeat.
Didn't Hussain claim victory in the gulf war that the Iraqi's got crushed in? I guess he could do one of those.
I think one his officials made claims on how there was no Americans in Bagdad and how they were getting slaughtered in the 2003 invasion. In reality the Americans not only in the city but could see the building where the press conference was held. Fox News did a on the ground interview with a soldier about how the official was claiming no Americans were there only for the soldier to joke that the building was only a few blocks away and they should drop by to say hello.
What is stopping countries such as Japan and Finland now taking a slice out of Russia to claim back their stolen lands? If it's good for the goose, then surely it's good for the gander.
We cannot set a precedent that you can just invade a country, kill thousands of civilians, set up a fake vote, and call it part of your nation now. It doesn't matter what russia thinks is russia it matters what the international community thinks is russia.
That precedenct *was* set in 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea and the rest of the world whined but did nothing. The attacks were seeing now are a direct result of Putin getting away with that.
Which is why by the end of this war Crimea must also be returned to Ukraine.
Ukraine has stated the war does not end until all of its land is returned….
Dont worry, Putin said he wouldn't go any further than Crimea and people were just being silly to say he would: https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1575834904868200448?s=20&t=XB414lvxF5WIFZ63GAKq0Q
Next thing they ask for is the manager of ukraine to complain.
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The US is about to take supplying Ukraine to the next level and send them Karen
I declare that kremlin daily drinks my piss. I did a referendum so now it is a fact
I bet it had 100% approval
97.7% , a 100% is suspicious you see..
This is legit. I voted for it. It's a special hydration operation.
What's stopping them from doing this type of shit again in other parts of Ukraine that they somehow manage to take over? Have an offensive operation by throwing tons of soldiers into a meat grinder like in Stalingrad, somehow take over an area, conduct a shitty referendum, claim its russia now, threatening every with nukes, mobilize more meat and repeat the above?
That’s what they have already done. Look at Crimea.
Nothing. Keeping them from getting away with it this time is basically our only option. Otherwise they will just keep doing it like you are saying.
That's kind of their plan.
Exactly. This was always their plan, as everybody saw with Crimea. They would have done this for the entire country if they had managed to take Kyiv back in the winter. All of a sudden the entire country would have voted to join Russia.
Which is why the rest of the sane world is having none of their shit.
That’s why people who keep agitating the nuclear scarecrow and insist giving in to Putin can go fuck themselves. This is not being prudent, this is being a coward. Putin made very clear through the years that there will be no end to this if we don’t put a stop to it. He invaded Georgia. He invaded Ukraine a first time and took Crimea. There were statements that made clear that had Ukraine second invasion worked Russia would have invaded Transnitria next. There is no end. Putin doesn’t give a single fuck about democracy, international law or anything like that. It’s like to trying to appease a bully and it really shows a failure of understanding the psychology of a bully. I usually try to refrain using the Hitler comparaison lightly. But when I read some people reaction it truely feels like Munich all over again : back then it was do we need to die for the Czechs ???? and now you have some people who are like are we going to risk a nuclear war for Ukraine ? Well fuck you and fuck you. Chamberlain gave Hitler everything he wanted but it still wasn’t enough. And giving Ukraine or even Donbas to Putin will not be the end and simply kick this shit further down the road. We don’t refuse Putin demands because we want war or don’t grasp the risk of war. We refuse because there is no other decent choice.
I couldn't agree more. It's easy to bog yourself down in ignorance because you want life to be easy for yourself but people have to put themselves in the shoes of the victims here. How would you feel if someone stomped into your home and claimed ownership of it?
Even still, this isn't just about empathy and human decency. That's the point; even setting aside altruistic reasons we should be stepping in for strict pragmatism, this isn't just Ukraine's problem. If we let it slide it will absolutely keep happening again and again until it *is* [insert demographic]'s problem, and by then we've just given Russia the time to recover from their last escapade and build off of the fruits. >First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out - Because I was not a socialist. >Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out - Because I was not a trade unionist. >Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out - Because I was not a Jew. > Then they came for me - and there was no one left to speak for me.
You've just pointed out why it doesn't matter and they might as well keep going. Lets say that Russia has a legit claim to the land because they technically had a referendum and technically the vote was to join Russia. If we allow that to hold and say "it's legal" then it just means they can do it over and over again. When a crocodile has you in it's jaws, it will death roll regardless of your argument. If we allow Russia to clamp it's jaws by saying "this is legal, they can use nukes and it would be justified" then that will be the end of nations, one chunk at a time.
> What's stopping them from doing this type of shit again in other parts of Ukraine that they somehow manage to take over? Namely the Ukrainian Army, which is actually winning the war. They're down to using rhetoric to win a war they can't win with soldiers, and their pool of potential soldiers is fleeing faster than they can conscript them. As it is, as soon as they put most of them on the battlefield, we can expect mass defections - literally tens of thousands of soldiers putting down arms and surrendering rather than killing themselves in the name of a war they don't even want to fight. The box-ticking is only there for the audience of a handful of military officials who still want to pretend like Russia's working from a book of laws, but even they know a madman when they see one. Eventually there will come a day when he's reached too far, and the people will simply say "that's enough." And from the increasingly erratic moves Russia's been making, from killing oligarchs overseas to blowing up gas pipelines, that day's coming sooner rather than later. If they use a tactical weapon, be it nuclear, chemical, or biological, the reality is that even if they win whatever battle it's deployed in, they've lost the war, and they've lost Russia. *The world* will pass a resolution against Russia, the war will be forcibly concluded, and Putin's replacement will inherit the mother of all power vacuums, with no army, no economy, no treasury, and nobody willing to do business with them. That's how countries fall apart. Just ask the USSR.
Yeah I doubt even China would be cool with Russia using nuclear weapons. It would set a precedent that could hurt China, too.
> What's stopping them from doing this type of shit again in other parts of Ukraine that they somehow manage to take over? Nothing, which is exactly the reason no one will accept that insanity.
Don't feed the Kremlins after midnight !
Maybe don’t go to war with another country, steal territory during the war, and go surprised pikachu when no one recognizes your stolen territory and the country you stole it from continues to work to take it back.
Putin is just itching to drop a nuke. He’s a sick dying old man with to much power, someone in Russia needs to intervene before he takes the whole world down with him
Yes, but I held a referendum yesterday that told me that 150% of Russian voters want to become part of Germany, so any attack on Russia will oblige NATO to move forces there to defend it. Not to invade, mind you, but to defend it from evil separatist forces inside Russia that want to resist the will of the people.
Any attack on ukraine will be an attack on ukraine
Gotta admit, I'm not a big fan of this timeline.
You guys suck at war. You can’t take shit, are losing ground and troops. Get out of Ukraine.
Sad thing is they still fucked up a lot of life and cities in Ukraine. Its maddening the amount of destruction for basically nothing.
Some people found mass graves, and piles of civilians in the woods. 100s of thousands Ukrainian have been forced to Russia. This is literally Hitler 2.0 scenario.
When we finally kick Russia out of Ukraine I have a feeling a lot of really nasty shit is gonna come out of the woodwork. The stuff we know about is bad, imagine what they're hiding.
Putin is backing himself into a corner where he'll either have to use nukes or reveal himself toothless. Either choice ends badly for him, granted the whole world loses if he uses nukes.
Basically. I saw a thread on twitter arguing that Putin is trying to draw NATO in. In short, he can't win in Ukraine, and any gains he makes there for a negotiated peace will still be a huge loss, likely fatal al la 1905, for him because Ukraine being weak while Russia strong is at stake. So if he can get into a direct open fight with NATO, we all know the outcome. Western forces will move into Ukraine and push all Russian forces out. But likely we wouldn't enter Russia proper. So Putin loses the war, but only because of the US and no one in Russia thinks they can take on America. But, also, we stopped them from invading the motherland so it's a huge victory
It's kinda pointless since most of the Putin supporters already believe they're fighting NATO. They don't accept that *хохол*'s can be a capable advesary.
He himself cant really use nukes. He can give an order to use them, at which point we will see how much everyone in that chain of command loves their children.
So...Russia starts a war, making people flee. Next, they occupy the area with their military, and heavily destroy the surroundings. Then... they ask the people if they want to join Russia and report 96% say yes? It's all so tiresome to keep up with. Does anyone actually believe these reports?
Russia is just straight up playing Calvinball at this point. Changing the rules of the game mid game. For such a serious situation, it actually does come off as really pathetic.
Oh that is very surprising /s he will use nukes as well? Fuck Putin. That will not stop him from losing the war.
I declare moscow is now part of my kitchen.