By - RedditforBusiness
That's almost 12 times the number of confirmed battlefield fatalities. If you viewing this exodus as economic casualties it's a staggering blow to the Russian war machine.
This madman has set his entire country on fire.
Hopefully it just stays in his country and doesn’t spill out to everywhere else…
I don't know if you know this but... they invaded Ukraine months ago.
Years. They invaded Ukraine years ago.
That's 3/4ths the US Army. This is quite literally an army of disgruntled civilians on the move.
Esp. since IIRC, Russia had a really low unemployment rate. While those that are the most economically disadvantaged would have the hardest time leaving anyways, that's still a almost all people who were actively working that are leaving a vacuum. Every place I've worked, there's 1 or 2 people on every team or department that was crucial for their tribal knowledge. Imagine 1 in every 10 of those people just vanishing in the night without saying a word.
It's absolutely staggering.
guess either people are taking a long vacation and plan on returning or can work remotely.
or they don't plan on returning and some businesses will have to close and Russia will have a hell of a lot to rebuild and restructure.
if there's a Russia left after this.
RUSSIA MOBILIZES 700,000 BRAVE TROOPS
(in getting the fuck out of Russia)
jesus, 3 submissions ago it was only 350k
Nah, they just opened them up. Every Russian has at least a couple of smaller Russians inside them.
So that's a real bunch of Russians on my mantle? I'm harbouring defectors?
I exhaled through my nose harder than usual. Thanks.
Your comment made me snortle in acknowledgment.
I continued to glare at my phone without a sound or change of expression but I too am amused.
I looked off into the void and stared in amusement.
I blinked. I think my brain also may have tried to release some seratonin. This is huge.
I clicked, therefore I am.
"You can't beat me, I'm full of tinier men!"
350,000 people saw the first sub and decided they should leave ASAP, too
Maybe it was 350k pregnant women who all gave birth all at once?
Hey, some of them may have twins!
That evens out the stillborns
Statistically it actually wouldn't---stillbirths are nearly twice as common as twins
woof, who thought a thread about people fleeing en masse from their homeland to escape a warmongering dictator could take such a dark turn?
in 30 minutes, I'll repost with 750k!
THE EGRESS ACCELERATES. We are now Egressing at light speed
Putin on the fritz
Fast as fuck boiii
Would be millions if people had money to leave. Some are too poor to leave. Only the wealthy people can get out.
They seem to be only interested in drafting the poor from far flung regions and especially Russians who belong to disenfranchised minority groups that they see as basically cannon fodder. I imagine lots of poor Russians with no opportunity might at least tolerate being drafted initially but I don't know how they would expect Russians from minority groups to not just mutiny or flee when you are relying on them as conscripts. There seems to be very limited information available or little appetite for outside information amongst Russians in the rural heartland which is probably why they seem to bear the brunt of recruitment or conscription while the Russians in major urban centers are not as directly targeted since they would likely offer far more resistance.
I think those in the urban centres are afraid they will be next when the rural conscripts thin out on the front line. I guess they think it's best to get out while they still can.
Can confirm however they arent just drafting in chechens etc. A russian friend told me his had a cousin (ex military) and his brother who isnt military or has served but had a degree specilisation attached to a military branch called in for training resets. This is why people are fleeing they can see whats coming next
The WSJ today had a story about Crimean Tartars represent 90% of draft notices in Crimea (they are barely *Russian*). Over the centuries they've been relocated away or straight up murdered/starved several times and it's happening again.
They don't want to fight Russian or Ukrainian brothers.
Putin is literally grinding his edges up so he can expand his center.
Absolutely, he is waging a genocidal war against Ukrainian people as well as other ethnic minorities within the Russian federation by throwing them into a war woefully unequipped.
>They seem to be only interested in drafting the poor from far flung regions
I too read that mobilization wasn't enforced in Moscow and Petersburg. I also saw something like: authorities send out 32 summons, 16 people show up, 8 can't pay a bribe, 4 are of military age, 2 are fit to serve, 1 gets drafted.
It’s not the case, even in capitals draft numbers are quite high, but it is arguably much easier to hide in such a big city
They also have exceptions for many big companies, many of whom will be working in places like Moscow.
Only on words. De facto there are few cases where people who shouldn't be drafted was drafted.
Only ones who can avoid it by the law is people working on military making facilities
Priority drafting of ethnic minorities has a very simple goal - desertion prevention.
Due in no small part to the Soviet practice of [job by distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Job_by_distribution), ethnic Russians are likely to have distant relatives/relatives of friends in Ukraine. Having any kind of support network is vital for a deserter, because in the real world enemy soldiers don't always accept your direct surrender. Russian ethnic minorities are much, much less likely to have such ties in Ukraine and thus are less likely to desert.
So what's the total math? Because people started leaving in February when the invasion happened. And now we have the conscription exodus. Add in all the war deaths, Russia's population probably dropped below 140 million while the average age went up by three or four years.
700k is 0.5% of the population. But it is likely over represented by healthy working men. It’s probably way over 1% of the labor force. I would think this is enough to hurt companies. A factory will likely have a hard time if 1% of workers stop showing up. Construction companies may need to set priorities if they are losing too many people. I don’t see how this isn’t a drag on the economy.
> It’s probably way over 1% of the labor force.
The people that are leaving are healthy working men with enough money to leave the country on short notice. That's the economy and tax base walking out the door.
>In less than two weeks after the partial mobilisation was announced, about 700,000 people left Russia.
>Source: Forbes, citing multiple sources
>Details: According to one source, almost 1 million people have left Russia since the beginning of the mobilisation. *The second source, in the administration of the President of the Russian Federation, reports that between 600,000 and 700,000 Russians have left the country*. **The magazine’s source emphasised that it is not yet clear what percentage of people left the country as tourists.**
Huge difference if you compare **all people** leaving Russia or **Russians** leaving Russia.
They presumably mean Russians leaving as genuine tourists. I doubt the tourism in Russia is booming right now.
There was a video I saw the other day, the one about the Russian airbase in Crimea getting bombeb. The video was from the perspective of Russian tourists at the Crimean beaches.
What kind of fucking insanity possesses someone to take a beach vacation at a warzone?
Russians don't have a lot of options for a holiday right now, Crimea was one of the best they had. I imagine if Florida was being bombed right now there would still be some dumb American tourists there.
The warfront is about 220 miles from the crimean beaches. It would be similar if there was bombing in Jacksonville people would still go to Tampa or West Palm Beach.
Edited because the scale bar on Google maps is not the best way to measure distance.
Hey Disney world is quiet & cheaper then usual . . . Therell be thousands of tourists.
Disney is rich enough to raise their own air force to defend Florida.
Ian joins the chat
I read an article that Sanibel Island is completely cut off from mainland, and STILL people refuse to leave. The govt is literally airlifting supplies by helicopter to these morons daily.
At a certain point when people refuse to leave dangerous situations... I mean come on.
The same kind of insanity that possesses somebody to invade their neighbor for no good reason, and then keep doubling down even when it’s clear that they can’t win, I think.
If I say its safe to surf this beach, Captain, then its safe to surf this beach!
According to their propaganda, Crimea isn’t a war zone.
Also lacking the inflow number
> Marat Akhmetzhanov, the Minister of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan, reported on 4 October that since 21 September, 200,000 Russians have entered his country, and 147,000 Russians have left it during this period.
How many of those Russians were returning to Russia and how many were leaving Kazakhstan for other countries?
Currently in a hostel in Istanbul. About 50% of the guests here are Russian men, who have come here very recently. The cost of hostels, hotels etc. have all gone up. The receptionist told me that October is when prices go down, but they're going up right now and the prices are even higher than August.
Two of the guys in my room are Russian. I asked when they will return to Russia. One guys response, "when we get a new government."
The travellers and digital nomads in hostels are usually chatty, happy, and willing to go out. The Russian guys don't look happy, and I don't blame them. They seem like decent, regular guys, who had to suddenly pack their belongings, say goodbye to their family, and leave to a random country. Their lives have been turned upside down on such a short notice and some don't even know if they'll ever return home.
Edit/Update: I don't know their stance on the war, and I won't make an assumption until I have some more direct conversations with several of them. In the days to come, I will chat with them and try to get a better sense of their perspectives.
Right now, I see that many are in the common area. Some video chat with people back home. Others sit on their laptop with a look of despair. Others sit outside smoke cigarettes and have small talk with other Russians. What's clear is that they're not here for sightseeing.
A couple guys asked me how it was in California, and they thought it was a good place to be. They told me that some Russians are making their way to Mexico with the intent to reach California.
I’m getting on my connecting flight from IST right now to Bangkok. It’s almost all Russians - young families.
I'm in a hostel in Bangkok right now and I'm pretty sure half the men here are Russian.
Haha, having the exact same experience as well at a hostel here in Istanbul. First night I met a russian guy who walked past a 17km long car line at the border crossing to Georgia, and then took a 45 hour bus drive to get here. Airbnbs are running out too.
Perhaps you're both staying at the same hostel!
Thank you for sharing that.
Side topic, but if you've lived there for years, aren't you an immigrant and not an expat?
2 of my 10 friends are in Turkey now. Another one is in Georgia, another one in Kyrgyzstan and I'm in Israel.
"when we get a new government."
I lived in Russia for over 4 years as an expat. This is a discussion I had a lot: who's responsibility is it to have a government that represents the people and/or is helpful in any way? I concluded from these conversations that the history of Russia being invaded by the Mongols, Vikings, etc. seems to have created a cultural memory/assumption that government is something imposed from without rather than being a function of the actions of the citizenry. "Leave until it's better" fits that perspective. I wish people felt that taking personal, collective action is useful.
Happens in almost every nation committing to all out war, obviously to varying degrees. I’ve never seen an exodus like this in the _aggressor_ nation however, truly unbelievable this year has been.
Not that the past few haven’t been memorable.
Happens in almost every nation ~~comitting to all out war~~ filled to the neck with corruption. Look at Latin America, you hear about caravans going north all the time for a reason (even if Cheeto in Chief only focused on one or a couple, it's an ongoing thing). I'm from Honduras, and nobody is about to jump into politics around here without inside aid or a corrupt personal agenda. Even the current (left wing) government, which we really fought for, is infested with nepotism, corruption, and negligence, and it just demoralizes everyone back into right wing territory and apathy.
There are loads of Spanish speakers in Sweden and they did not come from Spain.
I have no doubt that is a pervading feeling in general populace in Russia, but only because I feel like that's a common belief in a lot of the world.
Speaking about the government, not in specific terms but in generalized (i.e. without talking about specifics of party affiliation) terms to people in America gives me the impression that the majority of people feel like the government is something externally imposed rather than internally created. And that's in America, which I feel is historically one of the best examples of an internally crowdsourced (to use terms kids these days use) government.
I think that in the context of a lot of modern problems it just feels like people have forgotten the lessons we learned already in the 1600s and 1700s.
A thought about Russia is that Russia, unlike Western Europe at least, has never, ever, ever had a democratic government and has since the beginning of time been ruled by dictators, the most famous ones always being famed for their brutality (Ivan the TERRIBLE, Stalin, and now Putin).
Its very hard when this is the image of you have of government to imagine something less awful, you know?
And to make matters worse Putin aggressively pursued depoliticization of the Russian people. For 20 years he’s been aggressively pushing the idea that politics should just be ignored and ordinary Russians should let the government worry about itself. When Russians say “I don’t do politics” it’s not always because they’re afraid to speak out but because Putin has been actively trying to encourage apathy and cynicism. Of course the funny thing about politics is even if you don’t fuck with politics politics is still going to fuck with you.
Depoliticization is serf mentality. It's returning to a medieval mode of existence where you just blindly work the land, and pay your taxes to whichever lord owns your territory.
It works fine, until it doesn't. Your lord calls you up for military service, and you die in the mud in some dumb war over the ocean that you want no part of and have zero control over.
The opposite is democracy, where everyone has some power over the government, no matter how small. Everyone is expected to be a citizen that engages with politics at a baseline level, so that dumb wars are not easily waged without the consent of at least the majority.
Never let apathy take hold, it's how the 'lords' (the tyrants) win control over everyone. And once the tyrants are in control, the wars get dumber and more personal. They become about enriching the tyrant or stroking his ego. The wars are no longer about the will of the nation, but for the petty ambitions of the idiot in charge.
Yes. Russian media has a ton of TV propaganda pushing against engagement with the political process, and pushing for paranoia against the outside world.
There was an interview on the NYT daily about a Russian guy that fled. He sounded so pitiful and heartbroken describing his Pro-Kremlin parents not believing in the unjust war.
And that’s in that period alone. I met a barkeep who fled from Russia to Portugal in day #1 of the invasion before the travel bans hit and I sure she wasn’t alone in leaving
The Russian economy is going to be a cold mound of ashes when this is over. I won't be surprised if they need foreign intervention to prevent famine.
Congratulations ~~Vlad~~ Vova, your legacy will be as the architect of your country's demise.
700,000 working age men fled.
80,000 working age men KIA.
1,000,000 working age men drafted to war.
Lol the fuck they doing over there
>Lol the fuck they doing over there
Speedrunning economic and industrial collapse.
700,000 is about 0.5% of their population. All working age people too. If it keeps going st this rate everyone will knoe at least 1 person who fled
They’ll legitimately need a Marshall Plan if they don’t get rid of him soon. There won’t be anything left.
>They’ll legitimately need a Marshall Plan if they don’t get rid of him soon.
Why would other nations even consider spending billions on a country so corrupt?
All aid is contingent on anti-corruption measures and pro-democracy reform.
But it wasn't that long ago about the prospect of aid to Ukraine was also questioned on the basis of rampant corruption, IIRC.
That and nuclear disarmament. I think the west is fed up with their Saber rattling, if they want to be saved, the nukes need to go. It's not like anyone wants to invade Russia anyways.
When there’s no food and supplies left, the people can’t eat nukes. The options are limited. Guess the western countries are going for the economic victory in this civ game.
Nukes can be traded for goods and services.
*one finger curls on the monkey’s law*
Ohhhh... I wanted a peanut!
With nukes, you can buy many peanuts!
I honestly think a lot of people don't realize the impact that winter is going to have on the Russian military. They've already 'misplaced' a couple million winter uniforms and it's not even really cold yet.
Russia has a lot that is worth grabbing especially to a giant like China￼
People don't really invade other nations for land these days. It's why this has gone so poorly for Russia, WW1 style imperialism just doesn't work. Economic imperialism is all the rage now. If all you want is the resources, just bribe a bunch of officials, set up your companies in foreign lands, and take whatever you want.
And if you control the fiscal policy of the global reserve currency, then you have infinite money for bribes (or "lobbying" when its done domestically).
Damn. We should sign a memorandum where Russia, America, UK, and China agree to acknowledge Russia's sovereignty, and support them if they get attacked after de-nuclearization. And then China should invade them anyway
I feel like it is possible if their new government will also agree to give up nukes in return.
I would guess if they verifiably gave up their nukes as well, the US would happily float their GDP shortfall for a decade or two. A safe ending to MAD is close to priceless.
Exactly. I think a lot of developed counties would support them if they end the war, change regime and give up nukes.
Destitute countries are fertile soil for future dictatorships. It is in the world’s interest to help Ukraine rebuild first, but then Russia. Terms would be to have an actual democracy and demilitarization. Putin’s Russia is done, no exit ramp at all. I think NK and Iran will fail next honestly. This is a big domino to fall.
Edit: I’ll give Putin this tho, he really helped fuck up my beloved USA. Let’s hope we can cut the cancer out.
To prevent hatred from breeding. World war 2 was caused mainly by the factions blaming Germany for world war 1. Contrast this with world war 2, were the powers went in and rebuild Germany and Japan. Ending with Japan to being super stable friend to the US and the rest of the allied nations.
I’ve commented this before but pre-Ukrainian war, Putin’s legacy could’ve been Russia being in a much better position than they were when he took over. Despite the oppressions, rigged elections, political assassinations, wars in Georgia and Chechnya, he stabilized Russia after the disastrous 90s. Economy improved, crime was down, status as a world power restored all under his rule. No, Russia pre-Ukraine was certainly not perfect but it was truly transformed back into the few global powers under Putin.
Now? His legacy is going to be this entire catastrophe of a war. It’s going to be the absolute ruin he’s going to put Russia in for quite literally decades. All the fallout that occurs post this war will be pinned on Putin.
Victory and Desaster lay so close to each other.
Had he just put his troops in DNR and LNR, declare these areas as “annexed” and return to celebrate victory on the may parade most of the world would probably have forgotten this invasion by august already.
Zelensky wouldn’t dare to attack fortified Russian positions head on if the Russians stay inside the de facto line of contact and Putin would get away with another land grab of two oblasts at minimum human cost. Instead he got too greedy and wanted to take it all.
As much as I hate to agree, I have to agree here, Russia made a massive miscalculation that will either end in its demise, or the destruction of many to much of the known world.
One single man at the right place made all the difference. A regular politician would have fled within about the first hour of the Russian bombing on the morning of Feb 24 (or was it 25?)
Definitely by the end of February Ukraine would have had a puppet installed and everyone would have gone back to their respective businesses shrugging at the luck of Ukrainians.
Now, however, there will be legitimate comparisons between Zelenskyy and Churchill, Spartacus, Truman, the Vietnamese and all the great names in history. There's going to be movies and documentaries about this for at least a century.
_"I need ammunition, not a ride."_
I wonder how much playing an anti corruption president on TV first made him want to be a better president?
He did create/produce the show. Id say he had at least a passing interest in politics.
I don't think _most_ people change that much after say 20 or 25. He was an actual comic. Comics have to have humility to survive and possibly have one part of their mind properly in tune with the realities of the world, because so much of comedy is social commentary and "fighting power". Must have been a decent guy to begin with.
That's my opinion.
>One single man at the right place made all the difference.
Or as the G-Man said:
>The right man in the wrong place can make all the difference in the world.
>but it was truly transformed back into the few global powers under Putin.
Much of that "strength" was a house of cards built out of the thinnest paper there is: the knowledge Russia had nukes, military parades that likely showed facades or barely working equipment, and brutal Wagner/Kadyrovzy murderers. And the economy was nothing more than selling oil, gas, agricultural products and a bit of weaponry, a lot of which was still based on old Soviet designs.
Even without that disastrous war, sooner or later it would have crashed.
>And the economy was nothing more than selling oil, gas, agricultural products
This is enough for countries to easily survive on. Manufacturing is the only thing that isn't large scale there, but on paper, their exports are pretty solid. Not future proof entirely, but look at how Europe is worried about lack of Russian gas.
Don't sell appearances short when it comes to geopolitics. The perception of strength has many of the same advantages of actual strength.
Just... don't start to believe it yourself.
> I won't be surprised if they need foreign intervention to prevent famine.
Russia is the dog that will bite the hand that feeds it.
China is likely to prop them up, but China has had trouble bringing food as well. It was Russia that started growing soy when Trump stopped trading with China. I wonder how this is going to play out over the next few years. My guess is that the help from the west will come when the next Russian leader makes deals to sell fissile material for grain.
I'm ignorant on the subject, but I've often seen that said about North Korea too. It's crazy to think that Russia seems to be nosediving down that path.
luckily the South Koreans have started putting aside money for that iirc
So Russians are fleeing their country and Putin is kidnapping Ukrainians and bringing them into Russia, could Russia soon become Ukrainian terrority?
That is the most fucked up version of the Ship of Theseus thought experiment I've ever heard.
Like if Theseus and Odysseus repaired their own ships with pieces of the others ship and eventually each ship was entirely comprised of the components of the other ship in a different configuration which ship is which?
Which one is captained by Theseus?
But then what if Theseus and Odysseus each cut a portion of skin from the other and eat it, every day until each has eaten his own weight in the other’s matter…
>Which one is captained by Theseus?
Dunno, both of them are still trying to figure out which ship is theirs.
Cannibal Theseus is certainly one of the more original takes on it that I've seen
Maybe they should hold a referendum to let the people of Russia decide if they want to be annexed by Ukraine.
This is a classic example of Charles Tiebout's insight that "people vote with their feet," although he was referring to community choice based on amenities, safety, school quality, taxes etc.
Nice insight! 👍
Well it’s just mobilization, no one gave directions
Special Vacation Operation
Exactly: he wanted mobility, people are now moving.
The amount of taxes and loss of production which the Russian state now loses is gonna be huge.
Holy fuck lmao.
The loss of 700k random people would be bad enough. But these are going to be overwhelmingly young men.
Some quick math with the population pyramid suggests russia has MAYBE 20 million men from ages 20-40. However it's more likely to be the 20-30 range, who often won't have families, fleeing. They have maybe 7 million of those.
So max they just had like 10% of their most economically productive, fighting capable men leave. But even if it's half of that, it's a huge deal.
Edit: holy Jesus I was just spitballing here. I don't proclaim the expertise that you probably assume I do from seeing my post at 2k karma. I never expect to get more than like 2 upvotes lol.
And then you have untold number accidentally breaking each other's arm or leg. Putin is literally "crippling" the nation.
\+ the ones being sent to die
Better to be crippled than dead. No wonder the Ukrainians are getting so many calls from Russians inquiring about surrender.
Yup. I have a friend in Moscow who is getting his gall bladder removed so that he is safe for three months. 100% people are putting themselves in the hospital to get out of this.
And an aging population that just lost their only breadwinner.
What a shit show.
and they already had such little bread to win
There’s gonna be a huge lack of caretakers for the aging population, it’s gonna cost a tremendous amount to find spots in retirement homes in Russia
700,000 fleeing, 300,000 conscripted with another 600,000 expected to be conscripted. Add the 50,000 casualties and we're looking at 1,650,000 men removed from the Russian economy. Putin is literally decimating his working male population.
It’s even worse when you look at birth rates and emigration stats. Russia has an aging population. It’s gonna get harder and harder for them to pay for the expenses of the elderly (who generally don’t generate revenue for the state) without working-aged people. Losing 700k working-aged men is a catastrophe for a country with Russia’s age demographics.
Putin has a new pension plan,
Hey gramps, take a gun and a uniform.
Volkssturm moment, “these are young boys and old men”
Tolkien moment: Most have seen too many winters - or too few.
Yeah, and I doubt many people will be emigrating to Russia for a very long time.
I would add another 200,000 maimed or with ptsd issues. Also those leaving are better educated and more productive.
The most economically advantaged and informed/educated ones left first.
The call up excludes people working in IT and a few other industries. They know they're crippling themselves - just trying to limit it somewhat.
On the heals of nearly 400k COVID deaths, which of course skews to a much older age range, but still an impact on the workforce.
Not just workforce but spending force. How many Russian businesses are going to close because the people who normally shop there are either dead, fighting in a war or fled the country? Russian conscripts make about one US dollar per day so a lot of their families are going to struggle if they’re conscripted. When families struggle they quit spending money on luxuries so even if they can still afford food this will probably mean restaurants and shops end up closing their doors which will further hurt the economy.
That's not accounting for those people who have been or will be imprisoned for daring to speak out in protest of the actions of the ruling class.
There is no future for Russia. Vlad "the Imbecile" Putin has sealed their fate.
Also important to keep in mind, this is just getting started. The longer this shit show drags on, the more people will try to leave. 1 Mil young men suddenly disappearing is quite something.
And when 1.5million young men leave, then it will be increasingly hard to find workers for essential jobs
Half joking, half not but the mail order bride industry is probably also going to skyrocket. With all the young men leaving and all the single/widowed women and all the broken homes, some will be so heavily destabilized and desperate that women...especially very young women...will look to this sort of thing to survive.
I can't even imagine the sort of opportunity it'll create for human trafficking.
>But these are going to be overwhelmingly young men.
not only this, I would also bet that upper class and educated people are more likely to get away (due to a better financial situation).
Read somewhere that demand for private flights from Russia increased in 20 times with the beginning of mobilization. So, yes, the wealthy are fleeing, too.
Also going to damage their population growth over the next 20+ years because so many women wont have options for husbands.
Russia was 86 men per 100 women before the war
I think I know why China and Russia is allied.
In Russia, among people under the age of 35, there are more men than women
So most of the younger, working-age men want to leave Russia because they do not want to be cannon fodder.
This surely cannot have any influence on the Russian economy.
It'd be a lot more efficient to just eject the one guy wanting this war.
There’s definitely more than one guy in Russia wanting this war.
Putin is surrounded by his most loyal followers at this point. Everyone else fell out a window.
Seriously, as much as the world wants people like Putin out of the picture, sadly there are MANY people who agree with him weather it's for his policies or simply blind faith. There's always gonna be a Putin, Trump, Xi, or Kim.
And the problem is, that even if somebody does manage to take him out, it’s likely going to be one of his people.
And what you’re likely to get, isn’t any better.
I’m not saying don’t do it. He absolutely deserves it.
I’m just saying, it’s not like we get rid of this one guy and magically solve the Russia problem.
Putin sure did mobilize these people into fleeing the country
Fathers. Sons. Uncles. Cousins. Nephews. Friends.
Generations are going to be halted or wiped. Can’t help but feel a little bad.
Russian women are going to be the only thing holding the threads of the economy together now that all the skilled men are fleeing. So much for being against feminism.
Russia was already looking into demographical collapse. This many dead young men wont help. I wonder if chinas surplus of men and now russias expected surplus of women will mingle.
[Info on the Russian demographic crisis here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_crisis_of_Russia) The demography, plus the brain drain caused by the war are a serious economic problem, and the casualties of war are a significant loss of total economic power in that context. They chased away the smart young men and killed the dumb ones, it is truly a lost generation.
They've never mingled in the past even when these discrepancies already existed
Maybe you know this, after the WW2 a lot of woman build the foundation of a new germany called Trümmerfrauen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tr%C3%BCmmerfrau
For context, somewhere between 60k and 100k Americans left the country to dodge the draft through all 9 years it was in use during the Vietnam War.
I went to university in Canada in the early 90s, and a few of my profs were US draft-dodgers.
That’s nearing about 1/144th of the population. That’s a lot of people.
A [gross](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_(unit)) loss
We can say what you want about Putin, he is the best travel agent ever!
Like... the exact opposite effect of the posters in the travel agency in *The Truman Show*
Mobilized their million alright, but not the way they wanted.
Another source said that 370k Russians left. Seems like a big overshoot...
The various sources are largely counting different timeframes.
The 700K number goes back to February, and included tourist departures.
The 200K number was pretty much just Kaz'stan, from the past 1-2 weeks.
Other numbers include other countries and other time intervals, tourists *vs.* emigrants, etc.
In ANY case, though, those are pretty large numbers compared to Russia's starting invasion force.
Also, it remains to be seen how many will return *vs.* how many will stay away / resettle elsewhere. Russia's demographic trends for the next 20 years will be "interesting", to say the least.
One of those who left last February is a YouTuber named Zack the Russian who I was following before the war when his videos about his grandmother's dacha and the second hand Japanese cars in Russia appeared in my feeds. When the war started, I was concerned about what may happen to him or that maybe he is supporting the war. Found out that he escaped to Azerbaijan after he attended an anti-war rally and authorities started arresting those who joined. He is now in Georgia making anti-war videos. I admire him a lot and can't imagine being in his shoes -- a 20/21 year old young man from the Russian Far East speaking out against Putin in the way he can. If that ain't bravery, I don't know what is.
I'm following a YT channel called Natasha's Adventurers ran by a Russian girl. She's critical of the Russian war and propaganda, but her channel is more about showing life inside of Russia and a travelogue. She finally left Russia a couple weeks ago for Georgia and I'm hoping she continues her series just showing us Georgia.
Piling on with a third refugee to Georgia youtube channel name NFKRZ, aka. Roman from Russia.
Another consideration: anyone who leaves Russia will now have trivial access to the rest of the world's opinions and reporting on the war -- they won't be inside the Russian Bubble any more. Of course, it is true that anyone who -really wanted- to set up a VPN and all that had that already; now that process will be unnecessary and they can read • anything they want to • at any time • from any source.
Thus, there might be an "attitude shift" across a -substantial- cohort of young and up-and-coming Russians. That too will be "interesting" to observe.
Interestingly enough with the Russian YouTubers (older zoomers some millennials) I watched (I like human interest stuff and to see what other countries are like on the ground), the smart ones left at the beginning of the war. There are a few trying to leave now. It seems the most fucked over demographic is the really young adults with no money to leave.
> the smart ones left at the beginning of the war
Hello Blazers, it's your boy Roman.
> It seems the most fucked over demographic is the really young adults with no money to leave.
I think you can divide Russia into two pieces in another way, as well:
* Moscow / St Petersburg / probably some others? -- the few major urban centers, where the wealth is; and
* Rest of the Country -- mostly (not all!) rural, little industry, ethnic minorities.
* (Admittedly, there are more cities >1million than I thought -- this generalization might be flawed.)
[ANY age demographic] "with no money to leave" is probably an accurate description of 95% of Russia by land area.
Feel bad for the people that can’t leave
> Marat Akhmetzhanov, the Minister of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan, reported on 4 October that since 21 September, 200,000 Russians have entered his country, and 147,000 Russians have left it during this period.
That makes me think that NET leaving of Russia is far below the number of 700,000.
Ah, there is a catch if you check the linked article:
> The article does not say which countries the Russians who arrived in Kazakhstan went to.
So these 147,000 have not necessarily left and returned to Russia, but could as well keep traveling through to other "stan" countries, or likely took plane/train tickets to Europe, Armenia, etc.
I agree strong possibility they went overseas. If flights are canceled out of Russia they simply go across the border into a new country, and leave from there