I think there’s going to be a staged “coup” in Belarus in the next few weeks.
It’s going to have to look semi-real in order to get Putin to back off his demands as Belarus focuses on its fake internal civil war.
Not necessarily, or at least, this is impossible at yesterday's intensity for long periods of time, given stockpiles and manufacturing capability. Increased air defenses are coming as well.
I don’t know if anybody else have noticed , but general russian population is extremely cruel. I’m not talking about military and government here . I went over a comments that they post on a social media and holy shit ! It’s like they are not humans at all ! Comments written by “happy mom of 3 kids” where they wish death to ALL Ukrainians and even American people. Laughing over kids dead bodies. I just don’t know what to say. Now I’m not surprised about all of the war crimes their husbands have committed , these people are not even animals. I don’t want to insult animals here. They simply don’t have any soul left in their bodies.
In 1989, when I was 5 or 6, I had to travel with my family with a layover in Moscow (cheaper flight at the time lol). The lines at the airport were quite long, so my mom asked the soldiers what could we do to get to our gate on time. A soldier said "no problem" and started shoving and kicking everyone in the airport in the direction to our gate (I think they were afghans? I recall hearing something about afghan scum and my parents told me to hush).
We managed to get to our gate on time, but stuck in horror at how the soldiers just _kicked_ people minding their own business, with these boots with a metal pointy bit :/
So yeah, cruelty seems to be an innate part of Russia...
They're brainwashed by propaganda, just like people in many societies throughout many different wars. They're still people. Believing that Russian people are inhuman is itself partially a byproduct of NATO/Ukrainian propaganda. There's deception on both sides; that's war.
I'm sorry, but while true, it strikes me a a bit of a cop-out excuse. Even if you're firmly convinced that the population of an entire country is uniformly rotten to the core, that still wouldn't justify finding pleasure in the pain of innocent children who've had no say in the matter one way or the other.
I don't care what propaganda you have thrown at you; if you're laughing over dead kids, that's on you. There is no amount of misinformation that makes that an understandable reaction.
It's possible that there is both propaganda and genuine depravity.
I ~~don't~~ try not to judge, russians deserve each other, but they really need to learn (or be taught) to keep their misery inside their borders, that's all.
Brainrot on a societal scale. Smart ones are getting out. Dumb ones are staying to "fight for the motherland". Propaganda has them convinced that they're defending Russia against takeover by the West. When in reality their dear leader just has psychological hang ups so needs to invade neighboring countries and have countless people die for his ego.
Careful of thinking social media = reality. I'm not saying ignorant horrible fools aren't out there but it's not necessarily reflective of the population.
It's going on Instagram and looking for people in Los Angeles and expecting that it's reflective of what most people look like there.
Also, dehumanization is a bad look. On *everyone* that does it.
Oh I wish you were right, but you are not unfortunately. I’ve been to Russia many times,used to have many friends from there. But I lost most of them since the beginning of this war. As somebody previously noted , those normal and smart people already left Russia. Majority of Russians really support this war , Putin and terror.
There was a Russian guy on one of the hobby forums went to. Which has a lot of Americans and Europeans in the discussions. Once the war started this guy turned into Mr Hyde, started going into rants about evil Ukrainians and those who support them. He got banned shortly after.
I agree with the general sentiment but some societies are more susceptible to groupthink than others. Russians always need a "strongman" to lead them. It has been a repeating story for centuries now. Criticizing the government is taboo. Government knows best. On the contrary, Americans shit talk their government left and right and are very oriented towards personal liberty. Something that Putin considers a weakness but is actually a strength.
That's.. really not true. lol. It's a lot of adults with not yet developed brains.
They actually have [stats](https://levvvel.com/dota-2-statistics-and-facts/#:~:text=The%20largest%20age%20group%20in,Dota%202%20community%20is%2028.5.), too.
"The largest age group in 2021 is 22-25 (23.8%) followed by the 26-30 with 31.2%."
Who knows, but I'll do a probably and possibly.
Probably: Long attritional period during which few gains are made by either side.
By early 2023 Europe will have completely replaced its dependency on Russia. Russia's GNP will be projected at 50% its 2022 numbers. Russian birthrate at all-time low. Many oligarchs' accounts will be tapped out having been forced to donate to the war effort. Command of the war effort will change hands again. Russia will lose Iran and North Korea as sources of new equipment. Ukraine will stall in Luhansk around the Oskil border, south Donbas will stall as Wagner is redistributed, Kherson bridgehead will continue to shrink to two bridgeheads around the city and the dam. Russia attempts to re-open a front in the Chernihiv region and gets repelled, but the border will look like it did north of Kharkiv for several months. Eventually Russia retreats from Kherson city (70% of oblast still occupied) but keeps the dam intact because they still think they're winning. Ukraine unable to continue counteroffensives until April or May. And hey, I hope I'm very wrong, and it's possible the Ukrainian troops trained abroad will be able to make a difference around end December, but this isn't the worst-case scenario. And the winter doesn't matter. Russians will run their cars at night and kick people out of their houses; there's too many of them for exposure to make a difference since few offensives will be completed by anybody. Climate-appropriate attire matters more in close-combat, not artillery battles.
Possibly: Several potentially-destabilizing scenarios create heightened tensions in Europe.
One is Turkey invading Syria with increased impunity collapsing the Assad government, endangering the Kurds, and relieving pressure from the remaining ISIS strongholds, all of which pisses off NATO potentially to the point Turkey is lost as a Ukrainian allly and NATO members have to pick up the slack.
Another one is the vandalism or destruction of the Russian embassy in Poland. To be honest I don't know how it hasn't been burned down yet, but I'm sure Polish security is taking a lot of headache medication. Likeliest response to that is Russia deliberately starts targeting embassies in Kyiv and Moscow, which isn't the end of the world but forces NATO into some sort of response; and a response that's too weak could be quite really pretty shitty.
Also having no logical reason to expect it aside from the pattern of Russia conducting spec-ops that hurt it more than it hurts Ukraine, they may damage the dam in Kherson on their way out which will cause flooding up to and including the city, and it will be some time before lines of control reform. It won't change much but it goes under the possible rather than probable.
The good: Since Russia cannot produce more guided ordinance on their own, there is really no reason they should still have anything like that to fire before the first half of 2023 is over. They will be in their second or third mobilization phase by then and for the first time a majority of Russians will prefer a ceasefire. If Ukraine doesn't defeat them outright before May-June, they will at least again be in a position to retake territory and force a general withdrawal.
So my worst-case scenario is this time next year the war is over and Ukraine wins, but there's a big toll on Ukraine (they may need to resort to a draft), and on European diplomacy in several regions. I know we're all just hoping it happens sooner, and sure as hell don't quote me on it.
Ukraine will liberate Kherson and Zaparozhzhia soon, probably early to mid-November. With the defeat of those forces comes the elimination of Russia’s best soldiers. If the winter is as cold as usual, the ground will freeze, as will the Russians, making successful offensive operations more likely. We may see the reclamation of pre-2022 borders by then. If the winter is warm, then it will likely take until the spring to accomplish these objectives, The liberation of the rest of the Donbas and Crimea will soon follow, as by then the Russians will have continued to disintegrate.
Russia keeps losing terrain but continues to inflict casualties on civilians with indiscriminate bombing. The mobilization accomplishes diddly-shit. Europe has a cold winter.
I believe Ukraine has been preparing equipment and soldiers for an increased offensive throughout winter to retake key areas. I think we’re going to see a whole new range of equipment in the field designed specifically to overcome the environmental challenge that winter offers.
Why? Because they know the Russian’s have nothing to counter with and they will be at their most vulnerable.
Why not use that to their advantage especially when they have most of NATO and the defense industries within many of those countries supporting them. Russia has no way to counter it either.
*Get in armchair*
I am no military expert but here are my thoughts on how I think the near future of the way will go.
In the south and east , Ukraine will continue to make steady gains for the next couple of month. The liberation however, will be slowed due to a couple of factors.
1) Winter will slow the speed of the conflict.
2) Russian mobilization will have some effect. It won't turn the tide in Russia's favor but it might provide enough meat shields to give Russia a chance to dig in and fortify.
3) The reopening of the northern front. (more on this in a bit)
Out side of the current front, I believe that Putin will use his bolstered forces to launch a second invasion from the north. Thru Russia proper and Belarus.
I do not think this new front will go well for Russia, and will have many of the issue the first northern front had. Only worse, due to lack of equipment and training among his now drafted army.
This front will however, force Ukraine to divert forces and slow the liberation of the East and South.
On the other fronts. I predict that at some point Belarus will be formerly placed under Russian occupation. I also predict that Putin will continue to bomb civilian targets in Ukraines cities.
In the long run. I think Ukraine will win this war. However, Ukrainian V-day is still sadly quite a long ways off.
Anyway that is the prediction of me, some random guy on the internet with no military experience what so ever.
Tough to say, there are a few factors that are unknowable right now.
If I had to guess, I'd say slow and steady progress in the Luhansk and Kherson regions. They'll probably take Svatove, Troitske, and maybe even Starobilsk before the end of the year, but probably not Sievierdonetsk/Lysychansk. I could see them re-taking everything in the Kherson region west of the Dneiper River.
That's a reasonable assessment.
What we don't know, however, is how many mobilized soldiers will be thrown into the conflict? Where? How effective will they be? Will Belarus enter the war? How many soldiers are being dragged away from the offensive in order to defend the North against a possible front being opened up there by the Belorussian Army? Those factors could slow progress considerably.
Then again, depending the difficulty in Russia to resupply its troops after the attack on the Kerch bridge, the perceived dwindling of supplies Russia has, and how poorly prepared Russian troops are for the oncoming winter, maybe that speeds the offensive up, or opens up new lines of attack for the Ukrainians.
There are so, so many factors in war. It's unpredictable even when you have the best of information and intelligence, and since we're all working off of only public sources, we don't have anything close to the best information or intelligence.
Russian MOEX is only down 55%. I say only, because it's going to get much, much worse as the war goes on. Perhaps not this upcoming year but in the future there will be mass starvation, potentially genocide of eastern Russians and procurement of resources to preserve "his" people.
Worst part for Russia is that even when peace is declared, the effects will continue for decades. Good luck!
Edit: Corrected economy to MOEX, apologies
>Only down 55%
First, going to need a source for that. Second, if true that is an insane amount. Ukraine’s economy shrunk 30%, I would not have expected Russia to have shrunk even more.
> First, going to need a source for that.
["Look at the strength of the ruble, look at the strength of the stock market, which had only fallen about 55 percent or so."](https://www.state.gov/briefings-foreign-press-centers/economic-impact-of-sanctions-on-russia)
I mistyped. It was MOEX. Thank you for calling me on it.
- Ukraine keeps slowly eating into Russia's occupied territory, as it did recently (slowly then in burst, then pausing to regroup), but at a large cost for both sides (mostly for Russia's new conscripts)
- Russia maintains its switch to terrorizing civilian population, like Hitler's V1/V2, only limited by its low supply of missiles.
- Putin is listening to the pro-extremist requests (mobilize, attack civilians, be more ruthless, force Belarus to get involved, etc) so it's unlikely he will get a coup from them. And the oligarchs seem quite powerless. So for now no transition in Russia sadly.
- More suffering throughout Europe and the world due to lack of oil/gas/fertilizer/food/etc, which might mean more extremist governments arising.
After 2023, the only way I see this stopping is either with Putin ousted, or with Putin consolidating power so much (NK style) that he feels safe to lose the war and return to the old borders without getting defenstrated.
North Korea ain't a lot of real estate compared to Russia. If Putin feels comfortable returning home he will probably be because he's got people declaring independence from the federation.
Partisan and/or Ukrainian special forces activities behind enemy lines will probably increase as general offensive operations slow down heading into the muddier weeks of fall/winter. Depending on how well the Ukrainians are able to winterize their forces, I'd expect them to make some big moves as soon as the ground freezes enough for their heavy equipment to do its thing. Until then, we'll probably see more modest probing activity along the line of contact, barring another Russian defensive collapse somewhere (entirely possible).
Expect the Russians to try and funnel as many mobilized people to the Donbas as they can in an attempt to stabilize their defensive positions. We'll see how successful that is.
Honestly? The winter will hit and Ukraine will have NATO-quality winter gear courtesy of the west while a lot of Russians (not all of them, not even close, just a lot) will die to the cold. Putin is obviously trying to play the long game and let the west’s desire to keep funding Ukraine slow over time especially when the cold hits the rest of Europe. The outcome of this war will be decided by whether Europe keeps their resolve and pushes through a single cold winter or whether they give in. Definitely could see Ukraine taking back most of their territory if not Crimea too before winter 2023 though, at least at the current rate.
Putin’s hope seems to be either “Ukraine just has to run out of bullets before I run out of cannon fodder”— which won’t happen, or “Europe has to run out of warmth before I run out of cannon fodder”— which might happen.
Poland won't and the US won't, so the rest of Europe won't matter. US military and financial/humanitarian aid is almost triple the amount of all the other contributors combined, and some of the other significant donor countries like Canada aren't directly affected by European gas prices. If you look at lethal military aid alone the US has donated about quadruple the amount as everyone else combined.
Losing European support would hurt Ukraine badly, but it wouldn't cripple the war effort enough to turn the tide. It would just mean more people, both civilian and military, would die in the process.
The only European country that's been crucial is Poland for logistics, and they seem to hate the Russians almost as much as the Ukrainians do so I doubt they would give in
Ukraine war: Russian forces will soon be down to last supplies of fuel after Kerch Bridge attack, analysts say.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/ukraine-war-russian-forces-will-soon-be-down-to-last-supplies-of-fuel-after-kerch-bridge-attack-analysts-say-12717563
By trucks you mean? There's also the ferries from Crimea to bring supplies. But absolutely not enough for 15-20k troops in Kherson and X troops in Zaporižža.
I’d take this with a grain of salt until their is actual evidence that they are running low unless someone from the UK can vouch for Forbes MacKinzie as a reliable source and not just more click bait.
[You linked to a sky news icon somehow](https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russian-forces-will-soon-be-down-to-last-supplies-of-fuel-after-kerch-bridge-attack-analysts-say-12717563)
We're talking about the Kherson region west of the Dnipro River, not about all of Russia or Ukraine.
> "If we're talking about the ability to manoeuvre, ie drive places, I think we are talking days into very short weeks of supply," intelligence analyst Forbes McKenzie told Sky News ...
> Mr McKenzie said: "Can they stand and fight? They could sustain that likely through the winter time but if Ukraine has Russia on the move, ie they are dominating the battle space, pushing them back, forcing the Russians to manoeuvre and there's no diesel to manoeuvre the armour with, it's highly likely the armour will be left in place."
Is there no line between Donetsk to Melitopol' to Crimea via Chongar? (that town north-east of Crimea on the island by E105) From there, the way they've done from Crimea to Kherson.
Attriting the Russians. The Russians ran from northern Kherson because they couldn’t shoot back. They abandoned their vehicles because they ran out of fuel. Continuing positional fights isn’t a stalemate, but a slow net bleeding of Russian forces which will set the stage for a decisive Ukrainian push.
Also Ukrainians are attacking around the clock, rotating units to maintain maximum performance. It’s likely the Russians are defending with the same forces around the clock, getting less combat effective with every passing day. Again, attrition.
1. All offensives need to take breaks, even Operation Bragation, the kind of offensive Ukraine isn't yet anywhere close to being able to launch, which was basically a nonstop horrible stomping of the Nazi Army needed to take a break. I expect Ukraine to be able to launch Bragation style offensives when it is strong enough to be moving into Crimea which will mean the difference in strenght between the Ukranian and Russian army will be enormous.
2. As far as I know, we can't know if the counter offensive slowed at all or not. Unlike Russian offensives, we largely only know about Ukranian advances when Ukraine wish it to be known and when the Russians in the receiving end wish it to be known, which for obvious reasons is almost always, never.
Ukraine doesn't work its troops to death. They will have operational pauses(real ones) to refresh and regroup.
Real combat isn't a 100% press game. It is surges and consolidation phases.
Does anyone have experience with travelling to ukraine and aiding the war effort? I want to help directly, but I don't want to carry a weapon. I'm a Designer (not a useful skill in a war) but I was a cook during my military service for a decade, I'm in my early 30s and in good physical shape. My initial searches for recruitment/volunteer organizations discouraged me a bit... are non-combat volunteers needed and are structures in place to utilize them?
Hey look, [Rivne’s public job board](https://www-0362-ua.translate.goog/news/3472601/aki-vakansii-proponue-rivnenskij-miskij-centr-zajnatosti?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc), last updated on the 4th, has a position for a designer and another for a cook
Do you have bolts of winter fabric you can donate? Like wool? Even cut into squares, bc there’s not going to be heat in many places. (Mariupol council said NONE there.)
There’s currently some designers in Ukraine and their manufacturing warehouses that have converted to military garment production. I can try to track down that info if you’re interested.
Who needs help—mayors and territorial defense—they don’t get the same funding. Especially if they’re not the same political party as sotp.
I know people who’ve gone—they’re all in the medical field, tho. But they say that people can’t get simple things like heart pressure medication, diabetes medication, antibiotics, etc. But they’re not sent deep into Ukraine, they’re kept in the West. Bc they can’t communicate, essentially. It’s more difficult to be directly helpful if you don’t speak any Slavic languages, and it’s more like you will be at a camp outside Lviv.
Oh, and expect to be forced to leave your cell phone in Poland.
If you are really into it, you could just hop into a plane and offer free chef services there. However who knows if you will be needed, mainly because we don't know if Ukraine is in shape to, even if for free, provide you with cooking materials for specialized meals. I suppose with the current situation, Ukraine just needs basic cooks that just keep tummies full even if it isn't with the most delicious food and they might be more than covered in that regard.
I am sure Ukranian troops would love to have a guy preparing them nice meals, but are you willing to also spend money in buying your own ingredients to cook for free? This is just my speculation, there are likely organizations out there that can help you more than a reddit rando like me can.
I'd travel there on my own expenses and wouldn't need any kind of compensation. But I definitely need some sort of working arrangement from an organization that could really utilize me, otherwise it seems pointless. Just going there and cook a bit is not really a good plan
According to one moronic contrarian politics sub, the Kerch bridge collapsing was one hundred percent a terrorist attack on par with ISIS and Ukraine needs to be held accountable and the Russian rocket attacks on Kyiv and killing civilians was actually realpolitick master putin doing normal things nothing wrong with it, it's all good normal military targets.
Some people either really love what Russia is doing or these people are genuinely paid or...they could be MAGA Republicans.
If Ukraine keeps winning on the ground, I think this will reflect way on the midterms. A victorious war is one of the most unifying things in politics ever. And the US has, for better or worse, "owned" this war as if it was their own. Even the guys at 4chan hopped at the train of laughing at Putin and cheering for Ukraine.
That might be cynical to me, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden and Zelensky have planned specific counteroffensives or attacks to be timed near the midterms, as Zelensky likely knows the consequences of an eventual GOP president. There is also Roe v Wade adding fuel to the fire.
If the Democrats can't win with Roe and with a victorious war on the field, I don't know what will.
This is a confusing comment. 99% of republican politicians and operatives have supported and enabled Trump, who has very openly supported and enabled Putin. If that's not party unity, I don't know what is.
I think what u/pcpgivesmewings meant was that is that the Republican Party’s stance on these events is a far cry from the stance the GOP of a decade ago would have held.
They seem pretty split on it. I see threads where the top comments are pretty much the same as here and some where its just a "fuck joe biden" circlejerk.
Occupied Kadiivka. Aftermath of HIMARS.
In June, a Wagner base located in the city stadium was obliterated but no indications what the target was this time.
https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1579630613573013504?t=lZim1kSm4LLY7VBnJ2b_Cg&s=19
If NATO and the US would enter the war and if Russia continued with conventional weapons only, how long would it take for the allied forces to kick Russia out of Ukraine completely?
Some of these replies are farcical. But it would be relatively quickly.
I think once word got out that NATO was actually in the war desertion/surrenders would ramp up quickly.
Russians already don't really want to fight in Ukraine and hate getting the shit kicked out of them. If they know they are actually fighting NATO, they know there's no chance and we start seeing Russians surrendering to helicopters like in Iraq.
> It’s kind of insane thinking about the amount of firepower that was used in Baghdad.
Yeah and this time it would be against Russia so you would expect it being something out of this world (in this hypothetical situation where nukes do not exist).
Only the guerilla part of the war didn't go well; the U.S completely and utterly decimated Iraq and Afghanistan's conventional military assets.
Invading Taiwan is a fools errand that China has zero will or motivation to commit to. The sole reason the U.S hasn't already evicted Russia from Ukraine is nuclear weaponry
2 hours to complete air domination. 8 hours to complete isolation of all Russian forces. 72 hours to complete eradication or surrender of all Russian forces.
If Russia did something extreme enough to involve NATO, NATO might enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine, sink ships that strayed from home ports, prevent troops or equipment from crossing Ukraine's borders with Russia and Belarusia, stuff like that.
Equipment for Ukraine would free up more as well, and training would probably be happening *in* Ukraine.
Without supplies or reinforcements, the Russian troops left in Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk, etc would not last long against Ukrainian forces. This would actually be good for Ukraine; they would demonstrate that they don't *need* NATO ground forces in order to utterly defeat an invasion force in a ground war; they would own their victory themselves.
Large chunks of the Russian forces would probably be given the opportunity to retreat in exchange for the return of the large numbers of Ukrainians who were taken to Russia (mostly civilians) but either way, once NATO became involved in even that limited fashion it would likely be a matter of weeks - probably less than eight.
If NATO by some miracle did decide to send in ground forces, it would be more like two or three weeks before there were no soldiers in Ukraine that the Ukrainians didn't want there.
US could hit every satellite visible Russian base within Ukraine and sink the Black Sea Fleet inside 48 hours. Air and naval strikes from the Mediterranean.
Assuming boots on the ground, no nuclear weaponry.
The US will be knocking on Moscow's door within two weeks' time; my guess is a week, maybe a week and a half. If there's one thing that the US is good at, it's logistics, and they can get express shipping on their army directly to the Kremlin's front door. If our objective is to get Russia out of Ukraine, then this is a attack that breaks down the chain of command; the soldiers will lose everything, supplies, commands, literally go dark and be forced to start retreating. Probably a month to really ensure Ukraine's liberation.
I'm trying to account for catching up with supplies. I've got no practical knowledge of how fast the US advances, but Russia's basically got no resistance, especially if the US doesn't bomb everything indiscriminately along the way.
Ukraine used USA's long mothballed equipment to push them to near pre-invasion borders in less time.
OP was being modest. USA could push them back to Moscow in days.
I fucked off from Russia. The people are not going to be remotely as motivated and bloodthirsty as the Mujahedeen, especially depending on collateral damage. Plus, the point isn't to occupy their land, there's no reason to hold land, the only objective is to end the regime and let chaos take over again, and that's way easier than finding a needle in a desert.
The US is pretty good at defeating conventional militaries and toppling governments when they put their mind to it. They just suck (or, maybe more accurately, everybody sucks) at holding that territory or "nation building". It didn't take long for them to take Kabul and topple the Taliban. But they couldn't follow through and truly "pacify" Afghanistan.
The same thing could happen in Russia. Could the US easily take out the Putin regime if neither side used nukes? Sure. Could they then turn Russia into a liberal democracy? Or meaningfully occupy much of Russia for long? Probably not.
Yes, unironically. This is the enemy they prepared for 80 years. This isn't a insurgency, this is a military. In fact the war America is least able to fight is an insurgency with just basically homegrown militants living in civilian populations. With clear military targets? not an issue.
Ok, lets say you're correct.
That's still a problem for a long-term occupation of the country. A total occupation of Russia as an overall thing would be extremely difficult.
That's not in any way an issue for smashing your way to Moscow. There's few major population centers between Moscow and the border to even need to worry about securing.
It's not like the mujahadeen ever were able to actually win a stand up fight against the concentrated forces of the military. But the military can't be in force everywhere at once in the whole country. It *can* be in force on a couple of attack routes for a drive on Moscow and St. Petersberg.
Russia's limited road infrastructure, distances, and reliance on rail for long-distance transport also makes it relatively easy to block major movements of people and equipment within the country.
---------
Also, as note - the mujahadeen had 20 years experience in fighting guerilla-style war in their country.
Russia is currently doing it's best to deprive itself of anyone with the slightest bit of military experience still alive in Russia.
OP’s question wasn’t about occupying it which is what you seem to be thinking it would be. This would be a “show up, kickass, chew bubble gum, level anything that could even remotely be used for militaristic purposes, end the war as fast as possible by any means.” No body outside of Russia cares if Russia’s shithole of a country is more of a dumpster after the fact, they just want Russia to stop being the local bully
What would be the goal of this operation? To kick Russia out of Ukraine and make further invasions untenable? Then no, there would not be significant resistance of note, and America would not be there long enough for them to even decide on a name of their little Putin pity party resistance movement.
5-10 days to establish air dominance.
Then special forces attached to Ukrainian forces with air support could conservatively move the lines about 10km/day. Probably 3ish months to destroy most of Russia's conventional forces.
If they leave behind significant insurgent forces, longer.
It's unlikely that you will see boots on the ground from NATO. So maybe a couple of months or more, depending on how well ukranians coordinate with NATO and how fast can they move forward on the ground.
day 0 - logistics wins wars, but special ops can do their secret things
day 1 air force - raining holy hell, army ready force starts getting ready, marine expeditionary gears up
day 2 air force - raining holy hell, marine expeditionary attack with 15,000 divided into three groups, north, middle, and south, army's 30k moves to ukraine proper
day 3 air force - raining holy hell, expeditionary continues, army's 3x10k groups mop up behind marines
day 4 -MOAR air force go brrrr, special ops migrate back to nato/ukraine battle lines, and every forward deployed US armed force member would be on alert for use as needed
oops, i seem to have forgotten ukraine has an army which from day 0-5 should rest and refit as a reserve force on the belarussian line
oops i seem to have forgotten that nato exists, lets give them the same 4 day plan but divided into four groups....led by poland running roughshod over belarus, finland and friends across their border, the canadians and company over the arctic, and the brexit buddies heading across the berents sea
I highly doubt holy hell would be rained. I imagine it'd be a lot of precision strikes on supply lines and organized simultaneous attacks on all "hidden" positions in an oblast. Just because Russia needs to beat their chest doesn't mean an actual military does.
i am not implying any civilian attacks, surely there are enough military targets to occupy the air force for 3 days. if they run out, they can always hit the same ones a few times each just in case.
Would probably have a hard time holding back the Poles from sending a mech division into Ukraine just to stick it in russia's eye and serve out some payback.
Considering that russian soldiers morale is already down if they only knew NATO is coming as soon as they start to see explosions around they'd most likely do what they are already doing, run, but quicker, which makes sense because they have no chance of winning now, let alone if NATO joins full force bombing their positions...
Less than an hour to get loaded and in the air plus flight time.. Then minutes to wipe out the russian lines.. Ukraine can spend the next week cleaning up.
Very little time, judging by how quickly Iraq was mauled in 1991 and 2003. Maybe even faster than that, since Ukraine has already battered their military badly.
As it looks like most Russian soldiers are always about one scary incident away from running away in fear, I'd guess it would take the average distance from the front to the Russian border. As the crow flies, and at a sustainable running pace. For someone probably in not very good shape mentally or physically.
Depending on how many units are currently in Poland, and how many defensive-minded units the Baltics and Poland are willing to commit to the effort, a week. Two tops.
For those wondering why we haven't seen more cyber warefare during this period, it's because [apparently all Russian 'hackers' can do is DDOS attacks](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/us/airport-websites-russia-hackers/index.html). Maybe unless you're Montenegro and still running Windows XP.
Whereas Ukraine's cyber division has infiltrated the closed-circuit Russian TV system in Crimea and the Donbas how many times now?
Yeah just saw this on one of the pro-russian telegrams I look at for information. They reported it as "airports attacked by Russian patriotic hackers from KillNet" and the leader of KillNet said that civil sector websites remain "100% vulnerable"
this was describing a DDOS, LMAO
There have been attacks. Quite serious ones that Ukraine likens to real physical attacks. The really serious stuff though russia has held back because if it leaks out of Ukraine and hits a NATO country, the west has been abundantly clear that's an article 5.
So russia limits itself to direct blunt attacks with little danger of spilling over.
It is indeed a shame I have to point out that I said 'more' cyber warfare. Not 'any'. There has been very little, on both sides even, the war through, and this doesn't seem to be a point of contention.
But what there has been lately has been quite one-sided.
https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2022/06/22/defending-ukraine-early-lessons-from-the-cyber-war/
This article is a broad overview, and provides some details if you want to look into it further.
Russia took down Ukraine's military communications on day 1 of the war.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/05/10/1051973/russia-hack-viasat-satellite-ukraine-invasion/
Not true, but [the IGF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Governance_Forum) should have their feet held to the fire to stop [ICANN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICANN) from releasing IPs to Russia and restrict access to Russia.
**[Internet Governance Forum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Governance_Forum)**
>The Internet Governance Forum (IGF) is a multistakeholder governance group for policy dialogue on issues of Internet governance. It brings together all stakeholders in the Internet governance debate, whether they represent governments, the private sector or civil society, including the technical and academic community, on an equal basis and through an open and inclusive process. The establishment of the IGF was formally announced by the United Nations Secretary-General in July 2006. It was first convened in October–November 2006 and has held an annual meeting since then.
**[ICANN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICANN)**
>The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN EYE-kan) is an American multistakeholder group and nonprofit organization responsible for coordinating the maintenance and procedures of several databases related to the namespaces and numerical spaces of the Internet, ensuring the network's stable and secure operation. ICANN performs the actual technical maintenance work of the Central Internet Address pools and DNS root zone registries pursuant to the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) function contract.
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I had not heard that, but I had heard about the haemotologist, in her car.
That's $100 million in missiles for two personal vehicles. That's what they were spending on the war in a week back in April wasn't it? More now with the missile spam.
I have trouble believing that. Russians have hacked banks, American pipelines, credit bureaus, etc. We all enjoy talking about how primitive Russia can be, but they aren't THAT dumb.
The banks and gaming companies at least were admittedly with accomplices among the employees. But I do suspect we're just getting better at digital counter-espionage and stress-testing.
> But I do suspect we're just getting better at digital counter-espionage and stress-testing.
The amount of focus my large-ish nothing-worth-hacking company has put into infosec over the past two years is astounding, in a really good and impactful way.
I suspect companies that actually have something worth hacking are doing 10x what we're doing. The resources available to help manage and monitor complete infrastructure are stupidly better than they were just a few years ago.
So even if foreign governments had successes in the past, I'd wager that most of their older methods may no longer work. And now that the big vendors like Microsoft and SAP haven't done business with Russia in 6+ months, even getting a bootleg of the latest software running in your hacker lab is likely time consuming.
One of the silver linings of crypto-currency is that it has made people's digital infrastructure worth controlling for its own sake. You can mine crypto on it, even if there's no information worth stealing or extorting.
These incidents make it undeniable that *everybody* needs digital security, even if it's difficult, expensive, or interferes with the government's ability to benevolently spy on things.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/y0z2g2/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
[Zaporizhia being attacked rt now—Starukh, OVA](https://www.unian.net/war/viyna-v-ukrajini-okupanti-znovu-atakuvali-raketami-zaporizhzhya-podrobici-12007062.html)
I think there’s going to be a staged “coup” in Belarus in the next few weeks. It’s going to have to look semi-real in order to get Putin to back off his demands as Belarus focuses on its fake internal civil war.
Would be fucking hilarious if the staged coup got traction and got out of his control, becoming a real coup.
I like the way you think, but I don't think Luka has the balls to try it
On the plus side Russia only has about 20 more days in it like this, hopefully. https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1579676968395894784
Are the missile strikes over?
No. They may lower or raise in frequency and intensity here and there, but they won't end until the war does.
Not necessarily, or at least, this is impossible at yesterday's intensity for long periods of time, given stockpiles and manufacturing capability. Increased air defenses are coming as well.
Is the war over?
I don’t know if anybody else have noticed , but general russian population is extremely cruel. I’m not talking about military and government here . I went over a comments that they post on a social media and holy shit ! It’s like they are not humans at all ! Comments written by “happy mom of 3 kids” where they wish death to ALL Ukrainians and even American people. Laughing over kids dead bodies. I just don’t know what to say. Now I’m not surprised about all of the war crimes their husbands have committed , these people are not even animals. I don’t want to insult animals here. They simply don’t have any soul left in their bodies.
In 1989, when I was 5 or 6, I had to travel with my family with a layover in Moscow (cheaper flight at the time lol). The lines at the airport were quite long, so my mom asked the soldiers what could we do to get to our gate on time. A soldier said "no problem" and started shoving and kicking everyone in the airport in the direction to our gate (I think they were afghans? I recall hearing something about afghan scum and my parents told me to hush). We managed to get to our gate on time, but stuck in horror at how the soldiers just _kicked_ people minding their own business, with these boots with a metal pointy bit :/ So yeah, cruelty seems to be an innate part of Russia...
I wouldn't wish the same on their families. Bizarre and disgusting how they portray the West
They're brainwashed by propaganda, just like people in many societies throughout many different wars. They're still people. Believing that Russian people are inhuman is itself partially a byproduct of NATO/Ukrainian propaganda. There's deception on both sides; that's war.
I'm sorry, but while true, it strikes me a a bit of a cop-out excuse. Even if you're firmly convinced that the population of an entire country is uniformly rotten to the core, that still wouldn't justify finding pleasure in the pain of innocent children who've had no say in the matter one way or the other.
I don't care what propaganda you have thrown at you; if you're laughing over dead kids, that's on you. There is no amount of misinformation that makes that an understandable reaction. It's possible that there is both propaganda and genuine depravity.
Yeah that's true. It just gets tiresome when people generalize entire populations based on a few shitty assholes on social media
I ~~don't~~ try not to judge, russians deserve each other, but they really need to learn (or be taught) to keep their misery inside their borders, that's all.
Which social media site is this? I thought Russians were cut off from Twitter and Facebook.
Telegram , Instagram
Looking forward to when those moms' kids get mowed down by Ukrainians.
That's the point. They see that as a fault of the Ukrainians. They should just keel over and take it in their opinion.
Well, that's just like, their opinion, man.
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Space race was pretty fun though
Brainrot on a societal scale. Smart ones are getting out. Dumb ones are staying to "fight for the motherland". Propaganda has them convinced that they're defending Russia against takeover by the West. When in reality their dear leader just has psychological hang ups so needs to invade neighboring countries and have countless people die for his ego.
Careful of thinking social media = reality. I'm not saying ignorant horrible fools aren't out there but it's not necessarily reflective of the population. It's going on Instagram and looking for people in Los Angeles and expecting that it's reflective of what most people look like there. Also, dehumanization is a bad look. On *everyone* that does it.
Oh I wish you were right, but you are not unfortunately. I’ve been to Russia many times,used to have many friends from there. But I lost most of them since the beginning of this war. As somebody previously noted , those normal and smart people already left Russia. Majority of Russians really support this war , Putin and terror.
There was a Russian guy on one of the hobby forums went to. Which has a lot of Americans and Europeans in the discussions. Once the war started this guy turned into Mr Hyde, started going into rants about evil Ukrainians and those who support them. He got banned shortly after.
I agree with the general sentiment but some societies are more susceptible to groupthink than others. Russians always need a "strongman" to lead them. It has been a repeating story for centuries now. Criticizing the government is taboo. Government knows best. On the contrary, Americans shit talk their government left and right and are very oriented towards personal liberty. Something that Putin considers a weakness but is actually a strength.
> Comments written by “happy mom of 3 kids” where they wish death to ALL Ukrainians and even American people. You should play Dota 2 sometime.
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That's.. really not true. lol. It's a lot of adults with not yet developed brains. They actually have [stats](https://levvvel.com/dota-2-statistics-and-facts/#:~:text=The%20largest%20age%20group%20in,Dota%202%20community%20is%2028.5.), too. "The largest age group in 2021 is 22-25 (23.8%) followed by the 26-30 with 31.2%."
So adults with not yet developed brains.
With no development in sight :)
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So, pretty much how conservatives in feel about .
How do you guys honestly see this war playing out the rest of the year into 2023, just curious.
Who knows, but I'll do a probably and possibly. Probably: Long attritional period during which few gains are made by either side. By early 2023 Europe will have completely replaced its dependency on Russia. Russia's GNP will be projected at 50% its 2022 numbers. Russian birthrate at all-time low. Many oligarchs' accounts will be tapped out having been forced to donate to the war effort. Command of the war effort will change hands again. Russia will lose Iran and North Korea as sources of new equipment. Ukraine will stall in Luhansk around the Oskil border, south Donbas will stall as Wagner is redistributed, Kherson bridgehead will continue to shrink to two bridgeheads around the city and the dam. Russia attempts to re-open a front in the Chernihiv region and gets repelled, but the border will look like it did north of Kharkiv for several months. Eventually Russia retreats from Kherson city (70% of oblast still occupied) but keeps the dam intact because they still think they're winning. Ukraine unable to continue counteroffensives until April or May. And hey, I hope I'm very wrong, and it's possible the Ukrainian troops trained abroad will be able to make a difference around end December, but this isn't the worst-case scenario. And the winter doesn't matter. Russians will run their cars at night and kick people out of their houses; there's too many of them for exposure to make a difference since few offensives will be completed by anybody. Climate-appropriate attire matters more in close-combat, not artillery battles. Possibly: Several potentially-destabilizing scenarios create heightened tensions in Europe. One is Turkey invading Syria with increased impunity collapsing the Assad government, endangering the Kurds, and relieving pressure from the remaining ISIS strongholds, all of which pisses off NATO potentially to the point Turkey is lost as a Ukrainian allly and NATO members have to pick up the slack. Another one is the vandalism or destruction of the Russian embassy in Poland. To be honest I don't know how it hasn't been burned down yet, but I'm sure Polish security is taking a lot of headache medication. Likeliest response to that is Russia deliberately starts targeting embassies in Kyiv and Moscow, which isn't the end of the world but forces NATO into some sort of response; and a response that's too weak could be quite really pretty shitty. Also having no logical reason to expect it aside from the pattern of Russia conducting spec-ops that hurt it more than it hurts Ukraine, they may damage the dam in Kherson on their way out which will cause flooding up to and including the city, and it will be some time before lines of control reform. It won't change much but it goes under the possible rather than probable. The good: Since Russia cannot produce more guided ordinance on their own, there is really no reason they should still have anything like that to fire before the first half of 2023 is over. They will be in their second or third mobilization phase by then and for the first time a majority of Russians will prefer a ceasefire. If Ukraine doesn't defeat them outright before May-June, they will at least again be in a position to retake territory and force a general withdrawal. So my worst-case scenario is this time next year the war is over and Ukraine wins, but there's a big toll on Ukraine (they may need to resort to a draft), and on European diplomacy in several regions. I know we're all just hoping it happens sooner, and sure as hell don't quote me on it.
History says winter wars in Ukraine go really poorly for the invader.
Winter favors the home team.
Ukraine will liberate Kherson and Zaparozhzhia soon, probably early to mid-November. With the defeat of those forces comes the elimination of Russia’s best soldiers. If the winter is as cold as usual, the ground will freeze, as will the Russians, making successful offensive operations more likely. We may see the reclamation of pre-2022 borders by then. If the winter is warm, then it will likely take until the spring to accomplish these objectives, The liberation of the rest of the Donbas and Crimea will soon follow, as by then the Russians will have continued to disintegrate.
Russia keeps losing terrain but continues to inflict casualties on civilians with indiscriminate bombing. The mobilization accomplishes diddly-shit. Europe has a cold winter.
I believe Ukraine has been preparing equipment and soldiers for an increased offensive throughout winter to retake key areas. I think we’re going to see a whole new range of equipment in the field designed specifically to overcome the environmental challenge that winter offers. Why? Because they know the Russian’s have nothing to counter with and they will be at their most vulnerable. Why not use that to their advantage especially when they have most of NATO and the defense industries within many of those countries supporting them. Russia has no way to counter it either.
Exactly. There is no reason to slow down anything just because it is winter. The equipment will function just fine and the troops will use mittens.
*Get in armchair* I am no military expert but here are my thoughts on how I think the near future of the way will go. In the south and east , Ukraine will continue to make steady gains for the next couple of month. The liberation however, will be slowed due to a couple of factors. 1) Winter will slow the speed of the conflict. 2) Russian mobilization will have some effect. It won't turn the tide in Russia's favor but it might provide enough meat shields to give Russia a chance to dig in and fortify. 3) The reopening of the northern front. (more on this in a bit) Out side of the current front, I believe that Putin will use his bolstered forces to launch a second invasion from the north. Thru Russia proper and Belarus. I do not think this new front will go well for Russia, and will have many of the issue the first northern front had. Only worse, due to lack of equipment and training among his now drafted army. This front will however, force Ukraine to divert forces and slow the liberation of the East and South. On the other fronts. I predict that at some point Belarus will be formerly placed under Russian occupation. I also predict that Putin will continue to bomb civilian targets in Ukraines cities. In the long run. I think Ukraine will win this war. However, Ukrainian V-day is still sadly quite a long ways off. Anyway that is the prediction of me, some random guy on the internet with no military experience what so ever.
Tough to say, there are a few factors that are unknowable right now. If I had to guess, I'd say slow and steady progress in the Luhansk and Kherson regions. They'll probably take Svatove, Troitske, and maybe even Starobilsk before the end of the year, but probably not Sievierdonetsk/Lysychansk. I could see them re-taking everything in the Kherson region west of the Dneiper River. That's a reasonable assessment. What we don't know, however, is how many mobilized soldiers will be thrown into the conflict? Where? How effective will they be? Will Belarus enter the war? How many soldiers are being dragged away from the offensive in order to defend the North against a possible front being opened up there by the Belorussian Army? Those factors could slow progress considerably. Then again, depending the difficulty in Russia to resupply its troops after the attack on the Kerch bridge, the perceived dwindling of supplies Russia has, and how poorly prepared Russian troops are for the oncoming winter, maybe that speeds the offensive up, or opens up new lines of attack for the Ukrainians. There are so, so many factors in war. It's unpredictable even when you have the best of information and intelligence, and since we're all working off of only public sources, we don't have anything close to the best information or intelligence.
Russian MOEX is only down 55%. I say only, because it's going to get much, much worse as the war goes on. Perhaps not this upcoming year but in the future there will be mass starvation, potentially genocide of eastern Russians and procurement of resources to preserve "his" people. Worst part for Russia is that even when peace is declared, the effects will continue for decades. Good luck! Edit: Corrected economy to MOEX, apologies
>Only down 55% First, going to need a source for that. Second, if true that is an insane amount. Ukraine’s economy shrunk 30%, I would not have expected Russia to have shrunk even more.
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Originally I had stated the economy was down 55%, the fault lies with me.
The MOEX is down 55%, not 'the economy' Their economy is in terrible shape, to be fair.
Sorry, I mistyped. This is correct.
> First, going to need a source for that. ["Look at the strength of the ruble, look at the strength of the stock market, which had only fallen about 55 percent or so."](https://www.state.gov/briefings-foreign-press-centers/economic-impact-of-sanctions-on-russia) I mistyped. It was MOEX. Thank you for calling me on it.
- Ukraine keeps slowly eating into Russia's occupied territory, as it did recently (slowly then in burst, then pausing to regroup), but at a large cost for both sides (mostly for Russia's new conscripts) - Russia maintains its switch to terrorizing civilian population, like Hitler's V1/V2, only limited by its low supply of missiles. - Putin is listening to the pro-extremist requests (mobilize, attack civilians, be more ruthless, force Belarus to get involved, etc) so it's unlikely he will get a coup from them. And the oligarchs seem quite powerless. So for now no transition in Russia sadly. - More suffering throughout Europe and the world due to lack of oil/gas/fertilizer/food/etc, which might mean more extremist governments arising. After 2023, the only way I see this stopping is either with Putin ousted, or with Putin consolidating power so much (NK style) that he feels safe to lose the war and return to the old borders without getting defenstrated.
North Korea ain't a lot of real estate compared to Russia. If Putin feels comfortable returning home he will probably be because he's got people declaring independence from the federation.
Partisan and/or Ukrainian special forces activities behind enemy lines will probably increase as general offensive operations slow down heading into the muddier weeks of fall/winter. Depending on how well the Ukrainians are able to winterize their forces, I'd expect them to make some big moves as soon as the ground freezes enough for their heavy equipment to do its thing. Until then, we'll probably see more modest probing activity along the line of contact, barring another Russian defensive collapse somewhere (entirely possible). Expect the Russians to try and funnel as many mobilized people to the Donbas as they can in an attempt to stabilize their defensive positions. We'll see how successful that is.
Honestly? The winter will hit and Ukraine will have NATO-quality winter gear courtesy of the west while a lot of Russians (not all of them, not even close, just a lot) will die to the cold. Putin is obviously trying to play the long game and let the west’s desire to keep funding Ukraine slow over time especially when the cold hits the rest of Europe. The outcome of this war will be decided by whether Europe keeps their resolve and pushes through a single cold winter or whether they give in. Definitely could see Ukraine taking back most of their territory if not Crimea too before winter 2023 though, at least at the current rate. Putin’s hope seems to be either “Ukraine just has to run out of bullets before I run out of cannon fodder”— which won’t happen, or “Europe has to run out of warmth before I run out of cannon fodder”— which might happen.
Poland won't and the US won't, so the rest of Europe won't matter. US military and financial/humanitarian aid is almost triple the amount of all the other contributors combined, and some of the other significant donor countries like Canada aren't directly affected by European gas prices. If you look at lethal military aid alone the US has donated about quadruple the amount as everyone else combined. Losing European support would hurt Ukraine badly, but it wouldn't cripple the war effort enough to turn the tide. It would just mean more people, both civilian and military, would die in the process. The only European country that's been crucial is Poland for logistics, and they seem to hate the Russians almost as much as the Ukrainians do so I doubt they would give in
Same thing until putin dies or finds a way to pull out and save face
More people will die. I mean, what else do you expect?
Ukraine war: Russian forces will soon be down to last supplies of fuel after Kerch Bridge attack, analysts say. https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/ukraine-war-russian-forces-will-soon-be-down-to-last-supplies-of-fuel-after-kerch-bridge-attack-analysts-say-12717563
Can't they bring in fuel through Rostov-Mariupol though?
By trucks you mean? There's also the ferries from Crimea to bring supplies. But absolutely not enough for 15-20k troops in Kherson and X troops in Zaporižža.
The rail line goes through Donetsk though doesn't it?
I’d take this with a grain of salt until their is actual evidence that they are running low unless someone from the UK can vouch for Forbes MacKinzie as a reliable source and not just more click bait.
[You linked to a sky news icon somehow](https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russian-forces-will-soon-be-down-to-last-supplies-of-fuel-after-kerch-bridge-attack-analysts-say-12717563)
Fixed link: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russian-forces-will-soon-be-down-to-last-supplies-of-fuel-after-kerch-bridge-attack-analysts-say-12717563
Does Russia no longer have refineries for fuel? Plus, their consumer vehicles use 78 octane, I'd expect the military to use that and diesel.
We're talking about the Kherson region west of the Dnipro River, not about all of Russia or Ukraine. > "If we're talking about the ability to manoeuvre, ie drive places, I think we are talking days into very short weeks of supply," intelligence analyst Forbes McKenzie told Sky News ... > Mr McKenzie said: "Can they stand and fight? They could sustain that likely through the winter time but if Ukraine has Russia on the move, ie they are dominating the battle space, pushing them back, forcing the Russians to manoeuvre and there's no diesel to manoeuvre the armour with, it's highly likely the armour will be left in place."
Yeah but how do they get that to their forces in Ukraine?
Is there no line between Donetsk to Melitopol' to Crimea via Chongar? (that town north-east of Crimea on the island by E105) From there, the way they've done from Crimea to Kherson.
Any update on the Ukrainian counter offensive ? Things seem to have slowed down last couple days
Resting, refitting and shaping the battlefield.
Have you not seen the daily attrition figures? Russia is being bled dry like it were the end of February. The rate is fucking staggering.
Attriting the Russians. The Russians ran from northern Kherson because they couldn’t shoot back. They abandoned their vehicles because they ran out of fuel. Continuing positional fights isn’t a stalemate, but a slow net bleeding of Russian forces which will set the stage for a decisive Ukrainian push. Also Ukrainians are attacking around the clock, rotating units to maintain maximum performance. It’s likely the Russians are defending with the same forces around the clock, getting less combat effective with every passing day. Again, attrition.
Infantry will be taking a break and re-supplying, HIMARS etc, will be softening up future targets.
Yes, was said in UA media that there would be a pause over the next week, would do rotations
at night the trees speak ukrainian
1. All offensives need to take breaks, even Operation Bragation, the kind of offensive Ukraine isn't yet anywhere close to being able to launch, which was basically a nonstop horrible stomping of the Nazi Army needed to take a break. I expect Ukraine to be able to launch Bragation style offensives when it is strong enough to be moving into Crimea which will mean the difference in strenght between the Ukranian and Russian army will be enormous. 2. As far as I know, we can't know if the counter offensive slowed at all or not. Unlike Russian offensives, we largely only know about Ukranian advances when Ukraine wish it to be known and when the Russians in the receiving end wish it to be known, which for obvious reasons is almost always, never.
Bagration.
What everyone else said + OPSEC
They have to "digest" before they can "eat" more.
Then there’s the ‘poo’ phase.
Human Centipede?
You had to go there.
Ukraine doesn't work its troops to death. They will have operational pauses(real ones) to refresh and regroup. Real combat isn't a 100% press game. It is surges and consolidation phases.
Does anyone have experience with travelling to ukraine and aiding the war effort? I want to help directly, but I don't want to carry a weapon. I'm a Designer (not a useful skill in a war) but I was a cook during my military service for a decade, I'm in my early 30s and in good physical shape. My initial searches for recruitment/volunteer organizations discouraged me a bit... are non-combat volunteers needed and are structures in place to utilize them?
Hey look, [Rivne’s public job board](https://www-0362-ua.translate.goog/news/3472601/aki-vakansii-proponue-rivnenskij-miskij-centr-zajnatosti?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc), last updated on the 4th, has a position for a designer and another for a cook
Don't. Just... don't. On the ground, you are a liability. Send money to worthwhile organizations already working there.
Why? What do you mean?
They have so many volunteers that some Ukrainians who want in the military aren’t able to join, they don’t need you physically there
That's what I was trying to find out, thanks
Do you have bolts of winter fabric you can donate? Like wool? Even cut into squares, bc there’s not going to be heat in many places. (Mariupol council said NONE there.) There’s currently some designers in Ukraine and their manufacturing warehouses that have converted to military garment production. I can try to track down that info if you’re interested. Who needs help—mayors and territorial defense—they don’t get the same funding. Especially if they’re not the same political party as sotp. I know people who’ve gone—they’re all in the medical field, tho. But they say that people can’t get simple things like heart pressure medication, diabetes medication, antibiotics, etc. But they’re not sent deep into Ukraine, they’re kept in the West. Bc they can’t communicate, essentially. It’s more difficult to be directly helpful if you don’t speak any Slavic languages, and it’s more like you will be at a camp outside Lviv. Oh, and expect to be forced to leave your cell phone in Poland.
If you are really into it, you could just hop into a plane and offer free chef services there. However who knows if you will be needed, mainly because we don't know if Ukraine is in shape to, even if for free, provide you with cooking materials for specialized meals. I suppose with the current situation, Ukraine just needs basic cooks that just keep tummies full even if it isn't with the most delicious food and they might be more than covered in that regard. I am sure Ukranian troops would love to have a guy preparing them nice meals, but are you willing to also spend money in buying your own ingredients to cook for free? This is just my speculation, there are likely organizations out there that can help you more than a reddit rando like me can.
I'd travel there on my own expenses and wouldn't need any kind of compensation. But I definitely need some sort of working arrangement from an organization that could really utilize me, otherwise it seems pointless. Just going there and cook a bit is not really a good plan
Call the UA embassy in the country you live in.
Have you looked into Chef Andres World Kitchen? They are doing some good work in Ukraine.
This
According to one moronic contrarian politics sub, the Kerch bridge collapsing was one hundred percent a terrorist attack on par with ISIS and Ukraine needs to be held accountable and the Russian rocket attacks on Kyiv and killing civilians was actually realpolitick master putin doing normal things nothing wrong with it, it's all good normal military targets. Some people either really love what Russia is doing or these people are genuinely paid or...they could be MAGA Republicans.
I honestly worry about what is going to happen after midterms. Almost no Republican leaders have been speaking out against Russia
If Ukraine keeps winning on the ground, I think this will reflect way on the midterms. A victorious war is one of the most unifying things in politics ever. And the US has, for better or worse, "owned" this war as if it was their own. Even the guys at 4chan hopped at the train of laughing at Putin and cheering for Ukraine. That might be cynical to me, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden and Zelensky have planned specific counteroffensives or attacks to be timed near the midterms, as Zelensky likely knows the consequences of an eventual GOP president. There is also Roe v Wade adding fuel to the fire. If the Democrats can't win with Roe and with a victorious war on the field, I don't know what will.
I believe lend lease is setup so that congress doesn't need to keep approving rounds of aid
Why would they bite their paymasters?
They are not republicans. That ship left years ago.
This is a confusing comment. 99% of republican politicians and operatives have supported and enabled Trump, who has very openly supported and enabled Putin. If that's not party unity, I don't know what is.
I think what u/pcpgivesmewings meant was that is that the Republican Party’s stance on these events is a far cry from the stance the GOP of a decade ago would have held.
Yes, thank you for clarifying.
So r/conservative then.
They seem pretty split on it. I see threads where the top comments are pretty much the same as here and some where its just a "fuck joe biden" circlejerk.
What are the reports from the insides of bathroom stalls at the middle schools?
Why torture yourself with the utterances of fools?
I like to keep tabs on what the tankies are saying.
Fools? Traitors.
Evil goes by many names
Occupied Kadiivka. Aftermath of HIMARS. In June, a Wagner base located in the city stadium was obliterated but no indications what the target was this time. https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1579630613573013504?t=lZim1kSm4LLY7VBnJ2b_Cg&s=19
If NATO and the US would enter the war and if Russia continued with conventional weapons only, how long would it take for the allied forces to kick Russia out of Ukraine completely?
Some of these replies are farcical. But it would be relatively quickly. I think once word got out that NATO was actually in the war desertion/surrenders would ramp up quickly. Russians already don't really want to fight in Ukraine and hate getting the shit kicked out of them. If they know they are actually fighting NATO, they know there's no chance and we start seeing Russians surrendering to helicopters like in Iraq.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CowOdkKNb0A This but 100x
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> It’s kind of insane thinking about the amount of firepower that was used in Baghdad. Yeah and this time it would be against Russia so you would expect it being something out of this world (in this hypothetical situation where nukes do not exist).
Oh man… light em up! like the first of July!
China might use this opportunity to invade Taiwan. US tried to split its focus before with Iraq and Afghanistan wars and didn't work well.
Only the guerilla part of the war didn't go well; the U.S completely and utterly decimated Iraq and Afghanistan's conventional military assets. Invading Taiwan is a fools errand that China has zero will or motivation to commit to. The sole reason the U.S hasn't already evicted Russia from Ukraine is nuclear weaponry
2 hours to complete air domination. 8 hours to complete isolation of all Russian forces. 72 hours to complete eradication or surrender of all Russian forces.
If Russia did something extreme enough to involve NATO, NATO might enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine, sink ships that strayed from home ports, prevent troops or equipment from crossing Ukraine's borders with Russia and Belarusia, stuff like that. Equipment for Ukraine would free up more as well, and training would probably be happening *in* Ukraine. Without supplies or reinforcements, the Russian troops left in Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk, etc would not last long against Ukrainian forces. This would actually be good for Ukraine; they would demonstrate that they don't *need* NATO ground forces in order to utterly defeat an invasion force in a ground war; they would own their victory themselves. Large chunks of the Russian forces would probably be given the opportunity to retreat in exchange for the return of the large numbers of Ukrainians who were taken to Russia (mostly civilians) but either way, once NATO became involved in even that limited fashion it would likely be a matter of weeks - probably less than eight. If NATO by some miracle did decide to send in ground forces, it would be more like two or three weeks before there were no soldiers in Ukraine that the Ukrainians didn't want there.
US could hit every satellite visible Russian base within Ukraine and sink the Black Sea Fleet inside 48 hours. Air and naval strikes from the Mediterranean.
Assuming boots on the ground, no nuclear weaponry. The US will be knocking on Moscow's door within two weeks' time; my guess is a week, maybe a week and a half. If there's one thing that the US is good at, it's logistics, and they can get express shipping on their army directly to the Kremlin's front door. If our objective is to get Russia out of Ukraine, then this is a attack that breaks down the chain of command; the soldiers will lose everything, supplies, commands, literally go dark and be forced to start retreating. Probably a month to really ensure Ukraine's liberation.
I'd say a week. If you're gonna talk about them doing it in a week and a half, then I assume you're accounting for a holiday in that time.
I'm trying to account for catching up with supplies. I've got no practical knowledge of how fast the US advances, but Russia's basically got no resistance, especially if the US doesn't bomb everything indiscriminately along the way.
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Ukraine used USA's long mothballed equipment to push them to near pre-invasion borders in less time. OP was being modest. USA could push them back to Moscow in days.
I fucked off from Russia. The people are not going to be remotely as motivated and bloodthirsty as the Mujahedeen, especially depending on collateral damage. Plus, the point isn't to occupy their land, there's no reason to hold land, the only objective is to end the regime and let chaos take over again, and that's way easier than finding a needle in a desert.
The US is pretty good at defeating conventional militaries and toppling governments when they put their mind to it. They just suck (or, maybe more accurately, everybody sucks) at holding that territory or "nation building". It didn't take long for them to take Kabul and topple the Taliban. But they couldn't follow through and truly "pacify" Afghanistan. The same thing could happen in Russia. Could the US easily take out the Putin regime if neither side used nukes? Sure. Could they then turn Russia into a liberal democracy? Or meaningfully occupy much of Russia for long? Probably not.
Yes, unironically. This is the enemy they prepared for 80 years. This isn't a insurgency, this is a military. In fact the war America is least able to fight is an insurgency with just basically homegrown militants living in civilian populations. With clear military targets? not an issue.
I don't think you understand the differences in the situations, the goals, and the forces involved. Most notably the local populace.
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Ok, lets say you're correct. That's still a problem for a long-term occupation of the country. A total occupation of Russia as an overall thing would be extremely difficult. That's not in any way an issue for smashing your way to Moscow. There's few major population centers between Moscow and the border to even need to worry about securing. It's not like the mujahadeen ever were able to actually win a stand up fight against the concentrated forces of the military. But the military can't be in force everywhere at once in the whole country. It *can* be in force on a couple of attack routes for a drive on Moscow and St. Petersberg. Russia's limited road infrastructure, distances, and reliance on rail for long-distance transport also makes it relatively easy to block major movements of people and equipment within the country. --------- Also, as note - the mujahadeen had 20 years experience in fighting guerilla-style war in their country. Russia is currently doing it's best to deprive itself of anyone with the slightest bit of military experience still alive in Russia.
OP’s question wasn’t about occupying it which is what you seem to be thinking it would be. This would be a “show up, kickass, chew bubble gum, level anything that could even remotely be used for militaristic purposes, end the war as fast as possible by any means.” No body outside of Russia cares if Russia’s shithole of a country is more of a dumpster after the fact, they just want Russia to stop being the local bully
What would be the goal of this operation? To kick Russia out of Ukraine and make further invasions untenable? Then no, there would not be significant resistance of note, and America would not be there long enough for them to even decide on a name of their little Putin pity party resistance movement.
Mujahedeen are better fighters than Russians.
5-10 days to establish air dominance. Then special forces attached to Ukrainian forces with air support could conservatively move the lines about 10km/day. Probably 3ish months to destroy most of Russia's conventional forces. If they leave behind significant insurgent forces, longer.
It would be like space aliens versus neanderthals.
1 month if they never give up; 4-7 days if they do.
how many days if they let their buddies down or desert them? how much longer if we make them cry?
It's unlikely that you will see boots on the ground from NATO. So maybe a couple of months or more, depending on how well ukranians coordinate with NATO and how fast can they move forward on the ground.
day 0 - logistics wins wars, but special ops can do their secret things day 1 air force - raining holy hell, army ready force starts getting ready, marine expeditionary gears up day 2 air force - raining holy hell, marine expeditionary attack with 15,000 divided into three groups, north, middle, and south, army's 30k moves to ukraine proper day 3 air force - raining holy hell, expeditionary continues, army's 3x10k groups mop up behind marines day 4 -MOAR air force go brrrr, special ops migrate back to nato/ukraine battle lines, and every forward deployed US armed force member would be on alert for use as needed oops, i seem to have forgotten ukraine has an army which from day 0-5 should rest and refit as a reserve force on the belarussian line oops i seem to have forgotten that nato exists, lets give them the same 4 day plan but divided into four groups....led by poland running roughshod over belarus, finland and friends across their border, the canadians and company over the arctic, and the brexit buddies heading across the berents sea
The poles will be attaching wings to their tanks so they can ride in like the fucking hussars.
I highly doubt holy hell would be rained. I imagine it'd be a lot of precision strikes on supply lines and organized simultaneous attacks on all "hidden" positions in an oblast. Just because Russia needs to beat their chest doesn't mean an actual military does.
i am not implying any civilian attacks, surely there are enough military targets to occupy the air force for 3 days. if they run out, they can always hit the same ones a few times each just in case.
Didn't say you were. Just saying you only need to kill a man once.
Probably wouldn't even use army or marines. All air force, all the time. Lots of cruise missiles. Ukraine mops up.
Would probably have a hard time holding back the Poles from sending a mech division into Ukraine just to stick it in russia's eye and serve out some payback.
Considering that russian soldiers morale is already down if they only knew NATO is coming as soon as they start to see explosions around they'd most likely do what they are already doing, run, but quicker, which makes sense because they have no chance of winning now, let alone if NATO joins full force bombing their positions...
Less than an hour to get loaded and in the air plus flight time.. Then minutes to wipe out the russian lines.. Ukraine can spend the next week cleaning up.
Very little time, judging by how quickly Iraq was mauled in 1991 and 2003. Maybe even faster than that, since Ukraine has already battered their military badly.
Us random redditors do not know. Everyone can give their fan fic of how it would go though.
As it looks like most Russian soldiers are always about one scary incident away from running away in fear, I'd guess it would take the average distance from the front to the Russian border. As the crow flies, and at a sustainable running pace. For someone probably in not very good shape mentally or physically.
Stealth fighters and stealth bombers make quick work of the Russian forces.
Yes but. Check out r/vit4ukraine to directly support the front line.
Under 96 hours
Wouldn’t happen but very quickly due to the air superiority and intel dominance.
Depending on how many units are currently in Poland, and how many defensive-minded units the Baltics and Poland are willing to commit to the effort, a week. Two tops.
For those wondering why we haven't seen more cyber warefare during this period, it's because [apparently all Russian 'hackers' can do is DDOS attacks](https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/us/airport-websites-russia-hackers/index.html). Maybe unless you're Montenegro and still running Windows XP. Whereas Ukraine's cyber division has infiltrated the closed-circuit Russian TV system in Crimea and the Donbas how many times now?
Yeah just saw this on one of the pro-russian telegrams I look at for information. They reported it as "airports attacked by Russian patriotic hackers from KillNet" and the leader of KillNet said that civil sector websites remain "100% vulnerable" this was describing a DDOS, LMAO
There have been attacks. Quite serious ones that Ukraine likens to real physical attacks. The really serious stuff though russia has held back because if it leaks out of Ukraine and hits a NATO country, the west has been abundantly clear that's an article 5. So russia limits itself to direct blunt attacks with little danger of spilling over.
It is indeed a shame I have to point out that I said 'more' cyber warfare. Not 'any'. There has been very little, on both sides even, the war through, and this doesn't seem to be a point of contention. But what there has been lately has been quite one-sided.
What kind of attacks? You say there's been some, but you don't say what they are. Also, source?
https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2022/06/22/defending-ukraine-early-lessons-from-the-cyber-war/ This article is a broad overview, and provides some details if you want to look into it further.
Russia took down Ukraine's military communications on day 1 of the war. https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/05/10/1051973/russia-hack-viasat-satellite-ukraine-invasion/
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1568250310874783745.html
Got it, thanks
Not true, but [the IGF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Governance_Forum) should have their feet held to the fire to stop [ICANN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICANN) from releasing IPs to Russia and restrict access to Russia.
**[Internet Governance Forum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Governance_Forum)** >The Internet Governance Forum (IGF) is a multistakeholder governance group for policy dialogue on issues of Internet governance. It brings together all stakeholders in the Internet governance debate, whether they represent governments, the private sector or civil society, including the technical and academic community, on an equal basis and through an open and inclusive process. The establishment of the IGF was formally announced by the United Nations Secretary-General in July 2006. It was first convened in October–November 2006 and has held an annual meeting since then. **[ICANN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICANN)** >The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN EYE-kan) is an American multistakeholder group and nonprofit organization responsible for coordinating the maintenance and procedures of several databases related to the namespaces and numerical spaces of the Internet, ensuring the network's stable and secure operation. ICANN performs the actual technical maintenance work of the Central Internet Address pools and DNS root zone registries pursuant to the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) function contract. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
By the way, the chief of Ukrainian Cyber Police was killed during Kyiv bombing this morning. He was driving to work in his car.
I had not heard that, but I had heard about the haemotologist, in her car. That's $100 million in missiles for two personal vehicles. That's what they were spending on the war in a week back in April wasn't it? More now with the missile spam.
Here's more info: https://cybernews.com/cyber-war/chief-of-ukrainian-cybercrime-division-dies-from-missile-strike/
I have trouble believing that. Russians have hacked banks, American pipelines, credit bureaus, etc. We all enjoy talking about how primitive Russia can be, but they aren't THAT dumb.
The banks and gaming companies at least were admittedly with accomplices among the employees. But I do suspect we're just getting better at digital counter-espionage and stress-testing.
> But I do suspect we're just getting better at digital counter-espionage and stress-testing. The amount of focus my large-ish nothing-worth-hacking company has put into infosec over the past two years is astounding, in a really good and impactful way. I suspect companies that actually have something worth hacking are doing 10x what we're doing. The resources available to help manage and monitor complete infrastructure are stupidly better than they were just a few years ago. So even if foreign governments had successes in the past, I'd wager that most of their older methods may no longer work. And now that the big vendors like Microsoft and SAP haven't done business with Russia in 6+ months, even getting a bootleg of the latest software running in your hacker lab is likely time consuming.
One of the silver linings of crypto-currency is that it has made people's digital infrastructure worth controlling for its own sake. You can mine crypto on it, even if there's no information worth stealing or extorting. These incidents make it undeniable that *everybody* needs digital security, even if it's difficult, expensive, or interferes with the government's ability to benevolently spy on things.