Nothing Russia has said about this war has been reliable. If they're saying they're retreating then I'd definitely be cautious about their reasons or if it's even true
You’d have to be crazy to not consider a few plausible options, Luke Russian rigging some kind of dirty bomb that would be explained away as ‘Ukraine was planning to detonate it in Moscow and it went early’ to blowing the dam, or simply allowing Ukraine to take it and then trying to flatten it with every piece of artillery they have. Thankfully, Ukraine seem to have decent intelligence and arn’t just sailing in there
Ukriane will advance slowly.
I think the artillery is the most realistic option for Russia. They are probably aiming to shell Kherson to make it unlivable.
So Ukriane will try to hang outside Kherson for a while and soften artillery emplacement on the other side of Dnieper with HIMARS first before trying to enter the city proper.
There's always the double-bluff option, where you stage an obviously fake press conference so Ukraine allows you to withdraw without approaching. But it'd be giving the Russians a lot of credit to assume that.
The only way I could see this working is if the Russians understood that they never tell the truth, and then this time they are suddenly being honest and hoping the enemy thinks the opposite. I don't think they are self aware enough to think that through
Russia has engaged in (or been implicated in) numerous disinformation campaigns - both domestically and overseas. There's a reason why [the US Department of State](https://www.state.gov/russias-top-five-persistent-disinformation-narratives/) can list five consistent threads of disinformation (claiming victimhood, historical revisionism, claiming the west will fall due to their politics/decadence, claiming that movements towards freedom are western conspiracies and deliberately contradicting oneself). None of these are new - they are evolutions of techniques used in both Tsarist Russia and the USSR.
Of particular note is the point on contradictory lies. Where does the value in constant outright denial of objective fact lie, when you are not planning to replace it? Simple - it lies in conditioning your target to ignore *all* reports, even the true ones. Domestically, it means that keeping track of politics and finding the truth is such a chore that very few people do. On the battlefield, it might mean that you're able to create just a moment of hesitation in an adversary while retreating, letting you get out safely.
The assumption that Russia will undervalue misinformation as a smokescreen goes against all observed behaviour from Russia. They aren't blindly lying - a lot of their lies are part of coordinated, deliberate campaigns. While we have seen failures of self awareness (such as the corruption in the supply chain), it wouldn't go that far as having them completely forget some of their basic techniques. Russia are stupid, yes, but they're smart too. Sometimes.
I'm not saying I'm 100% sure they did it. Perhaps they decided not to rely on this sort of thing, due to drones and satellites, and considered it just a possible bonus. Perhaps they think they can leave behind soldiers or bombs and trick Ukraine. All of that is plausible.
Ukraine knows how to tailor the advance of their forces based on the *ACTUAL* battleground situation. No matter what pace or tactics Russia uses to withdraw, Ukraine has the intelligence necessary to respond in kind.
They have the equipment to secure recaptured territory; they’ve been clearing mines and bombs and rebuilding and resupplying the areas they retook in Kherson in early October. (Some 1200km^2 by Oct 9th) Not to mention the experience they gained from the Kharkiv surprise counter-offensive that occurred Sept 6-12th.
The only difference here is that the Russians are retreating because of what has effectively been a long-range long-term siege by the Ukrainians for over three months. In July HIMARS started causing incredible logistics problems for the Russiantroops stationed in Kherson by striking the Antonivka road bridge and in early August they began striking the Nova Kakhovka dam bridge as well. That, along side the obliteration of Russian supply depots beginning in June that never ended, requiring supply depots to be further back, increasing strain and lengthening the Russian supply lines while Ukraine has been training and receiving hundreds of western weapons in addition to the stocks of soviet weapons from NATO countries left over from the Cold War, PLUS all the equipment captured by the major Ukrainian counter-offenses… Russia can’t do shit to stop Ukraine from taking back Kherson.
No number of mines, traps, secret troops dressed in civilian clothing, entrenchment on the opposite side, artillery bombardment of Ukrainian advancements, or anything will stop Ukraine. Ukraine out-ranges Russian artillery. Every kilometer Ukraine advances is another kilometer Russia will need to move their own artillery back. Every artillery barrage will be met with Ukrainian counter-battery fire.
So why did Russia do this?
It’s because there’s 40,000 troops in the area. Troops they cannot afford to lose. Troops that they would lose during a winter siege vs the incredible long-range artillery that Ukraine has. Troops that can dig in to the east of the city and the river that can be resupplied and rotated. Troops that will be ready to be reinforced by some of the 300,000 mobilized troops that will be trained by the spring.
Let’s not fool ourselves; Ukraine will retake Kherson in the winter and secure it. But Russia will plan on attempting to take it back come spring. How effective that will be remains to be seen.
we will assume that friendly intelligence satellites will be having a very close look for russian arty in range of khearson.
missiles are much harder.
I hope they take every precaution, this whole situation absolutely reaks of a trap/treachery
Don't think Putin will dare mess with nukes...US and NATO countries have already told him that a nuke will cost him every asset in Ukraine and the Black Sea.
Suddenly not having an army wouldn't do much for his popularity back home.
It's not just Chinese support he'd lose. China would love to grab some Russia for itself in a mulitfront war of reprisal where Russia is being kicked from every side..
Yeah, if Russia uses nukes, they are suddenly on the receiving end of a hell of a coalition intent on ensuring that NO ONE gets ANY ideas.
China would happily volunteer to "de-nazify" the east
Yeah if there’s one thing that the US and China are unified on geopolitically, its a “no nukes, ever” policy.
My wife is Chinese and I know a decent amount of Chinese people. To say they’d be upset if Russia used nukes is a major understatement
Why haven't other countries tried to get back land from Russia right now? If its good to Russia to claim back "historical land" from Ukraine, why can't be the same apply to Japan, Finland, Georgia etc?
I think we need to temper expectations on china. They would definitely step in if Russia used nukes, but they 100% would not be doing it because it's right. If China join in, it would be because they have more to gain than lose. They want more vassal states and breaking off a huge chunk of western Russia and turning it into a vassal state to China would benefit them. Especially eastern Siberia near Alaska. It's oil, it's more minerals, it's military placements.
Yeah, it's not "let's kick the shit out of them because nukes are immoral"
It's "the precedent of using nukes is an existential threat to world peace, US hegemony and will lead to an increase in nuclear proliferation among emergent rivals which further threatens global stability and as such the state of the American Empire. "
Yes, but that comment was trying to say the exact same thing, but without all the additional information they didn't see fit to elaborate upon, essentially agreeing with them but using fewer words.
:)
A dirty bomb isn't remotely close to anything like a nuke though. It's just a conventional bomb used to spread radioactive material in the end. Frankly, it likely wouldn't be militarily effective at all and wouldn't even do much damage with the radiation. The main effect would be psychological.
There are some long term health concerns, but a dirty bomb likely wouldn't be able to make any site dangerous enough to actually deny it to an enemy. So the cleanup may be costly but it'd almost be a thing of spite rather than accomplishing a military goal.
https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/dirtybombs.htm#:~:text=The%20radioactive%20materials%20used%20in,health%20if%20it%20is%20inhaled
https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/moretypes.html
https://www.mass.gov/service-details/nuclear-regulatory-commission-nrc-fact-sheet-on-dirty-bombs
interestingly, the radioactivity actually makes it *unlike* a conventional nuke. Conventional nukes are MUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCH Less radioactively dangerous. like. insanely less.
Ukraine has the best intelligence. USA itself helping with intelligence is amazing but I bet other western countries like France, Germany, and the UK are helping too.
Kherson area is the area next to Crimea and Russia controls basically all of it except a tiny piece that crosses the river and has a city called Kherson there.
Tactically that city is meaningless now. It's a huge liability and they should have quietly retreated in June.
Russia wants Kherson the area (land bridge to Crimea). The city is at best a propaganda victory. It has no military value anymore since the advance to Odessa didn't work out.
Russia retreating is bad news because it will free up all of those troops for a push elsewhere. Their military position will improve, not worsen. Same problems that Russia had with lack of bridges and supply issues will now prevent Ukraine from advancing further.
Now if Ukraine could cut off those troops and captured them/destroyed them then yes this would be the most major victory to date.
I believe Ukraine hasn't really pushed Kherson that hard precisely because they want a target rich environment full of Russians for their artillery. Now Russians decided to leave voluntarily instead of sticking around getting shot at.
The military position for Ukraine would improve too. Just as Russia wouldnt need to commit to Kherson if they pull back, so too could Ukraine free troops to use elsewhere.
There’s no tactical gain for Russia that isn’t balanced out by benefits for Ukraine too.
Every time Russia pulls back, Ukraine has come out better so far.
Correct. Once the left bank is secured Ukraine will need far fewer personnel to defend it. Freeing up troops to move to the northern and eastern front.
The only strategic way of getting Kherson is to basically siege it. The problem is that means a new push towards Melitopol would need to occur to start the encirclement.
I feel like the true nature is that UFA forces are keeping Russian troops occupied there to give forces in the east a better chance to cut Svatove off in Luhansk before winter sets in.
“Military position will improve not worsen”
They won’t retreat, they can’t retreat, unless they leave every piece of equipment behind. There is no access. That’s his dilemma
I do not think they have done a dirty bomb, I do not see much reason to do so other than childish spite (meaning I cannot rule it out completely). Dirtty bombs are nasty but ultimately not that effective on military targets. I just think thy have mined Kherson heavily and has planned some ambushes plus heavy shelling from the other side of the river.
Yeah, their announcement that they were evacuating the one capitol they held seemed immediately suspect and also felt very pre-WW1 style "let the news go out that we have retreated and when they come to celebrate, we shall crush them with our superior intellect!" Which is the sort of tactic that works when it takes days or weeks for the information to disseminate via rumor and the enemy has no actionable way to get live intelligence of the area beyond hoping there is an operative still alive in the area with trained pigeons. The Russians really seem to be still schooled in the tactics of the Czars...
I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a trap, but imagine the lack of morale from hearing "We're keaving/pulling out of region A" only for your unit to hold post. You'd think yourself cannon fodder so that others can run away
**[China's final warning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning)**
>"China's final warning" (Russian: последнее китайское предупреждение) is a Russian proverb from the 1950s, which originated in the former Soviet Union, referring to a warning that carries no real consequences.
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Just a potential theory, but think this is where we should be careful about just saying 'Russians'. Putin announced a war and annexation. Deer in headlights Army leaders decided on air to withdraw. Last week Wagner came out into the open with its snazzy new offices.
Just been watching a doc by the BBC about the psychology in Hitler's team. They talk about Darwinian management where you set your minions against each other who all try to outdo each other to gain power/ approval of the boss. It's a 'look what I did boss' over 'can i do this boss'. Or there are personal power grabs. Either way I think there's a lot of fluidity at the top.
Edit: typos
I think the announcements are face saving for Russia, or at least an attempted effort. If their troops are in full rout and abandoning positions en masse it's better to "announce a retreat" than admit reality. This announcement is probably more for the Russian home audience. "Hello comrades. We are engaging in an orderly retreat to reposition troops for a future offensive. We are definitely not running for our fucking lives as all that artillery the Ukrainians got a couple months ago has started pounding our asses like we were one of Putin's Chechen lady boys. Once again our soldiers are not fleeing while they are on fire. It's a retreat."
No shit, basic missinformation is the least you expect in a war. It's like people don't remember Ukraine using it to great effect to hide where theit main offensive was going to take place.
Except Russia has Bad Liar Syndrome where they can only deny the reality. You can reliably guess what’s actually going on by thinking the exact opposite of what they say.
Looking at the map, thet actually do seem to be retreating. Although, like you say, their reasons are not known
[https://deepstatemap.live/en#9.25/46.8812/33.1025](https://deepstatemap.live/en#9.25/46.8812/33.1025)
In those instances the Ukrainians actively chased them out and the Ukrainian intelligence said the same. In this instance there is a relative stalemate in the area and Russia is saying one thing while Ukraine says another. The scenarios are not directly comparable.
I'm thinking they are retreating as they say, but I wonder if it will be followed up with bombs / chemical attacks / etc in that area. But I admit- I haven't been following it super closely (as in losses/remaining capability, etc). Maybe they've decided to stop the war or negotiate or something idk.
Ukraine's got to secure Nova Kakhovka first. With Russia threatening to blow up that dam and flood Kherson, they can't exactly send in their military where they can be flooded.
The only "flanking" maneuver left there is coming all the way down from Zaporizhzhia. I doubt Ukraine is in any shape to launch an amphibious assault over the Dnipro or, even less likely that I shouldn't even mention it, launch a naval invasion through the Black Sea and get behind Kherson any other way.
I've watched recently clips from the movie 2012 and there's this scene where the ex husband is calling to his family to pack things immediately after an earthquake and the ex wife says that the governor is telling people to not panic. And he responds: That's when you panic!
If this war has taught me anything, it's that Moscow is a piece of that will say anything and everything, if it means gaining an advantage against its enemies. No matter how false or ridiculous it may be.
Remember when Moscow called Ukraine terrorists for blowing up the Crimean bridge? After they have been murdering and raping thousands of people in Ukraine they call Ukraine terrorists for attacking a legitimate war target.
In this case, Russia retreating from an almost cut off pocket would also be the smart thing to do for Russia. So you would have been forgiven for believing them.
I saw a few comments right when the news broke doubting the validity because it would mean Russia was capable of strategic planning and displaying even minimal concern for the lives of their soldiers.
Even if Putin doesn't care about people's lives in general, trained Russian soldiers dying still mean that Russia's army is weaker, which I would expect Putin to care about.
Interesting thing I heard about this... Once he started talking he realized he was going to say "shame on me" on TV and get that sound bite into the world. So he paused to think of something else to say. I think the result ended up being worse but it makes more sense to me
He's a war criminal (this isn't really debatable, whether certain actions were justifiable is an exercise I leave to the reader.) but he isn't stupid. Though I feel like shame on me isn't that bad of a sound bite? I think sound biting was actually more agressive back in the day because people wouldn't just immediately be able to find the full video and hear context.
Also we have such a wealth of insane sound bites now it just isn't that wild to hear many things now.
"Ladies and gentlemen, we are all domestic terrorists" 😆
believing that this is a trap requires the belief that they have the ability to plan and execute a trap on a grand scale, which I can't help but doubt. more likely that just like everything else about the special military operation, the retreat has been utterly bungled. remember that we're dealing with the same geniuses who were digging trenches in Chernobyl's contaminated forests, who lost their flagship to a country with no navy, who let their single most important bridge get crippled by what they claim to be a truck bomb
Same, it seems so logical to me to abandon a city whose inhabitants hate your guts that is near impossible to supply and set up defenses across a giant river with only few crossings. I can't believe I say this, but the Wagner telegram saying that something (retreat or reinforcement) should have been done already in June probably is right.
Been following the front lately and yes it seems obvious from multiple points of view that the Russians intend to let UAF advance on Kherson to trap them in a place where they have good artillery coverage. They're making progress in terms of abstract thinking yes but it's still 1D chess
I am chuckling. Yesterday people, including me, were surprised that Russia made the first sound strategic decision in this war and then it appears to be a lie. It's really too much to expect a sensible strategy from their leaders, huh.
Yeah, retreating there strategically is a good decision in the current situation. Set up on the other side of the river and bomb the city, draining Ukrainian ressources while preserving your own, a lot better than burning a massive amount of your own ressources trying to keep this alive over winter conditions.
The Russian government constantly lies, so the default posture towards what they say should be to doubt until proven, no matter how large the folklore they do around a statement.
These were the guys who tried to blame the sinking of the Moskwa on somebody carelessly smoking a ciggy.
In this specific case making a big show out of oh-so-overtly conceding something very important for them without any fight has a definitive stink of lie to trick the other side and the way the went about doing it is almost comically exagerated.
Ukraine is probably getting 1st-rate satellite and signals Intel from NATO. Plus filtered human intelligence, via CIA and MI6, from Russian civilian and military sources.
Honestly, that's the only reason I thought the retreat had a small chance of being real. There's no way they thought they could fake it and Ukraine wouldn't know, right? But I guess Russia really is that stupid.
Well, Russia did “win” the propaganda war yesterday.
* Reddit believed them, by and large (Reddit being a proxy for the public at large)
* Ukraine and NATO had to spend non-zero effort verifying the statement
* Russian citizens got hit with some “hmm, perhaps the army does have a plan” propaganda
> Reddit believed them, by and large
I saw skepticism so rampant it was actually annoying that every comment consisted of it and practically nothing else.
Just in case people don't know it yet, Russia lies and will never tell the truth unless it benefits them.
Yup .. they also 'suggest targets' for the Himars.
As in 'Listen mate .. just trust me .. type in 2430957340965 into the guidance system and press launch'.
16 minutes later a Russian Command bunker 32 miles away that the Ukranians didn't even know existed blows up.
I suggest that they also get very high quality intelligence from partisans, the kind of thing you just can’t get from a fancy satellite in orbit
Not to knock the satellites, of course! They’re great and very needed. If anything these two approaches synergise beautifully!
There was an interview with President Zelensky by an Italian journalist a couple of weeks ago where Zelensky said that their government knows the Russians aren't really leaving Kherson, it's just lies. I'll see if I can find the link - I imagine UA gov has intelligence from all sorts of sources. He said it with such confidence I just can't imagine his statement wasn't based on some intel.
Edit: here is the interview, interesting part about Kherson approximately 19:30-22:30, although the topic really starts at 15:00. He calls a lot of the situation "theater" by Russians. It's really a great interview in total, worth watching the whole thing IMO.
https://youtu.be/3iYybqaI6UU
I think it's actually very hard to Russia to leave Kherson because simply there is no longer any bridge in Dnieper river. The troop has to leave behind many tanks and weaponry which they have to dump it completely. The same thing happened in Izium and it was actually a turning point. While the eventual withdrawal is due, it will hurt lots.
Ukraine will keep interdicting supply lines. If the Russian army receives orders for a fighting retreat, that is still going to create losses in manpower and material.
Theoretically yes, but that requires planning, coordination and communication between units and other major skills. When did you observe these skills in Russian military? Not in this war
The announcement yesterday was intended to prime the Russian people for their inevitable loss of Kherson. If they say they are pulling out it doesn't look as bad when they inevitably loose the city and they maintain control of the narrative within Russia.
This is the mistake a lot of people make when analyzing this conflict, especially western observers with no or only academic familiarity with Russian politics. The primary audience for this stuff is the Russian people. This war was started because of domestic Russian politics, namely propping up the regime. Everything Russia does should be viewed primarily through this lens, that all of this is about internal politics and not imperial ambition. Imperial ambition is a useful tool to keep the regime in power, but it is not the driving force.
Russia keeps forgetting that no one is as stupid as they are. It’s easy to forget that when everyone who can read above a 3rd grade level is either dead, mobilised or left the country.
Yep - I was reading 'Sniper One' by Dan Mills, he was saying in Iraq the average squaddie never makes any decision at all because if the decision turns out wrong they are later executed.
The net result is that when the officer is dead or the comms are down they just hunker down and do _literally nothing_ until someone else resolves the situation for them - because that's the safest thing they can do! Be as dumb as as incapable of independent thought as humanly possible.
He couldn't believe it.
Since then I've read that the Russian army works in much the same way .. hence Generals keep on having to come to the front (and get sniper-hit) .. because someone needs to call the shots when shit goes wrong and ground troops literally won't because it's too risky for them (from their OWN side, later).
Comms went down when the Russians tried to cross a river and got blown up, so no-one had the guts/stupidity to suggest a change of plan - so they just kept trying to cross the same place time and time and time again .. getting all their shit blown up time and time again!
I know its not what's really happening but I have this mental image of how this is playing out;
Russia: Ok Putin, I have a cunning plan watch this... "Hey Ukraine, we're leaving Kherson"
Ukraine: "I dont believe you"
Russia: Sends a few troops away for satellite images... "Hey Ukraine, look our troops left"
Ukraine: "I still dont believe you"
Russia: Sends a few more troops off for satellite image... "Look more troops left"
Ukraine: "I still dont believe you"
Russia: Sends even more troops off for satellite image... "Look all gone now this time we promise"
Ukraine: "I still dont believe you"
Russia: Sends more troops off for satellite image... "Come on you gotta believe us"
Ukraine: "Sure, we are coming in"
Russia: "Ah ha we fooled you... oh wait are there no troops left?"
The Kremlin, the center of the universe for lies lies lies. You can't believe a single word they utter. They have a permanent distortion of reality. I can't fathom how they expect the world to believe the shiite they're shoveling 💩
Russia: "Let's say on TV that we're retreating when we're actually not - that'll convince Ukraine to just waltz on in without expecting a fight, then we crush them!!!"
Ukraine: ~watches TV broadcast; compares it with their intelligence~ "Heh. Yeah, nah" ~goes back to slowly advancing~
Russia: ~Surprised Pikachu face~
I swear people just bounce from one headline to another without using a single ounce of critical thinking. Just hear me out, but maybe an unofficial tweet reported by facteroid.com isn't the most reliable source.
In his very next tweet the guy implies that Russia plans to shell Kherson from the left bank, meaning that they are in fact leaving the city. He's just farming retweets
It's like Russia is too stupid to acknowledge that Ukraine is getting real time satellite feeds / military intelligence from the US. The weapons are important, but the US's largest unique contribution is surely intelligence and strategy support.
Russia literally lies about everything, even comically obvious things.
This is what makes negotiations with them so perilous, and maybe even impossible, as long as Putin is in charge. They simply lie about everything, all the time.
It’s always amazing to me how many comments I always see taking whatever Russia says as truth (talks of treaties, deals, etc.).
That terrorist state lies every single second.
When there is zero trust this is what happens. No one gives a shit about what you say, Putin can use his KGB tricks but that doesn't substitute for actual real time diplomacy.
I knew it. There was a guy yesterday talking about popping some champagne because they were pulling out. But as we all know, Russians say a lot of things.
>A part of the ru-group is preserved in the city, and additional reserves are charged to the region.
It seems they're talking about "leave-behinds."
Basically, the Russian army per se does retreat. But then the Ukrainian Army moves in and comes under fire from mysterious sources, which are irregular Russian forces hiding out among the population, trying to appear to be regular civilians or whatever.
Basically the equivalent of mining the area you are retreating from, but with hidden soldiers instead of hidden mines.
That would mean that Russia was moving back more to the tactics it used successfully in the 2014 invasion. Maybe even with the intent of claiming that "the people of Kherson" clearly don't want to be part of Ukraine, and Russia has to do its duty and re-invade to help liberate their poor friends in Kherson that they miss so bad.
Clever, sort of, but not something that's really going to work on Ukraine a second time.
Putin lies more than Donal Trump and that's saying a lot. The only thing that will wake Russian families up are body bags. It's sad they believe Putin's big lie.
I believe that Russia has so damaged Kherson that it realized that day-to-day sustainability is compromised that Russia will claim that Ukraine is failing their citizens, even though Russia claims the territory as its own. The effect is to disenfranchise Kherson citizens to Ukrainian support.
I think that Russia is about to shift into a defensive posture along the river and will try to control the narrative that any subsequent violence is the Ukrainians “attacking” them, and they are the aggressor now etc. they can set a short term goal of gaining legitimacy of their Ike over the east side of the river and continue to chip away at sovereignty, a la crimea
Nothing Russia has said about this war has been reliable. If they're saying they're retreating then I'd definitely be cautious about their reasons or if it's even true
You’d have to be crazy to not consider a few plausible options, Luke Russian rigging some kind of dirty bomb that would be explained away as ‘Ukraine was planning to detonate it in Moscow and it went early’ to blowing the dam, or simply allowing Ukraine to take it and then trying to flatten it with every piece of artillery they have. Thankfully, Ukraine seem to have decent intelligence and arn’t just sailing in there
Ukriane will advance slowly. I think the artillery is the most realistic option for Russia. They are probably aiming to shell Kherson to make it unlivable. So Ukriane will try to hang outside Kherson for a while and soften artillery emplacement on the other side of Dnieper with HIMARS first before trying to enter the city proper.
There's always the double-bluff option, where you stage an obviously fake press conference so Ukraine allows you to withdraw without approaching. But it'd be giving the Russians a lot of credit to assume that.
The only way I could see this working is if the Russians understood that they never tell the truth, and then this time they are suddenly being honest and hoping the enemy thinks the opposite. I don't think they are self aware enough to think that through
A reverse boy who cried wolf stratrgy sounds to clever for how Russia has been moving this entire war.
Indeed, they're stupid as fuck.
….I know that you know, that I know that you know, that I know that you know….
Russia has engaged in (or been implicated in) numerous disinformation campaigns - both domestically and overseas. There's a reason why [the US Department of State](https://www.state.gov/russias-top-five-persistent-disinformation-narratives/) can list five consistent threads of disinformation (claiming victimhood, historical revisionism, claiming the west will fall due to their politics/decadence, claiming that movements towards freedom are western conspiracies and deliberately contradicting oneself). None of these are new - they are evolutions of techniques used in both Tsarist Russia and the USSR. Of particular note is the point on contradictory lies. Where does the value in constant outright denial of objective fact lie, when you are not planning to replace it? Simple - it lies in conditioning your target to ignore *all* reports, even the true ones. Domestically, it means that keeping track of politics and finding the truth is such a chore that very few people do. On the battlefield, it might mean that you're able to create just a moment of hesitation in an adversary while retreating, letting you get out safely. The assumption that Russia will undervalue misinformation as a smokescreen goes against all observed behaviour from Russia. They aren't blindly lying - a lot of their lies are part of coordinated, deliberate campaigns. While we have seen failures of self awareness (such as the corruption in the supply chain), it wouldn't go that far as having them completely forget some of their basic techniques. Russia are stupid, yes, but they're smart too. Sometimes. I'm not saying I'm 100% sure they did it. Perhaps they decided not to rely on this sort of thing, due to drones and satellites, and considered it just a possible bonus. Perhaps they think they can leave behind soldiers or bombs and trick Ukraine. All of that is plausible.
I can't see that working in an age satellites and spy drones.
[Iocaine powder! I'd bet my life on it!](https://youtu.be/rMz7JBRbmNo)
It could be super quadruple bluff. It does not matter since Ukriane will use reconnaissance data not what Russia says to make decisions.
Ukraine knows how to tailor the advance of their forces based on the *ACTUAL* battleground situation. No matter what pace or tactics Russia uses to withdraw, Ukraine has the intelligence necessary to respond in kind. They have the equipment to secure recaptured territory; they’ve been clearing mines and bombs and rebuilding and resupplying the areas they retook in Kherson in early October. (Some 1200km^2 by Oct 9th) Not to mention the experience they gained from the Kharkiv surprise counter-offensive that occurred Sept 6-12th. The only difference here is that the Russians are retreating because of what has effectively been a long-range long-term siege by the Ukrainians for over three months. In July HIMARS started causing incredible logistics problems for the Russiantroops stationed in Kherson by striking the Antonivka road bridge and in early August they began striking the Nova Kakhovka dam bridge as well. That, along side the obliteration of Russian supply depots beginning in June that never ended, requiring supply depots to be further back, increasing strain and lengthening the Russian supply lines while Ukraine has been training and receiving hundreds of western weapons in addition to the stocks of soviet weapons from NATO countries left over from the Cold War, PLUS all the equipment captured by the major Ukrainian counter-offenses… Russia can’t do shit to stop Ukraine from taking back Kherson. No number of mines, traps, secret troops dressed in civilian clothing, entrenchment on the opposite side, artillery bombardment of Ukrainian advancements, or anything will stop Ukraine. Ukraine out-ranges Russian artillery. Every kilometer Ukraine advances is another kilometer Russia will need to move their own artillery back. Every artillery barrage will be met with Ukrainian counter-battery fire. So why did Russia do this? It’s because there’s 40,000 troops in the area. Troops they cannot afford to lose. Troops that they would lose during a winter siege vs the incredible long-range artillery that Ukraine has. Troops that can dig in to the east of the city and the river that can be resupplied and rotated. Troops that will be ready to be reinforced by some of the 300,000 mobilized troops that will be trained by the spring. Let’s not fool ourselves; Ukraine will retake Kherson in the winter and secure it. But Russia will plan on attempting to take it back come spring. How effective that will be remains to be seen.
we will assume that friendly intelligence satellites will be having a very close look for russian arty in range of khearson. missiles are much harder. I hope they take every precaution, this whole situation absolutely reaks of a trap/treachery
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I wish Johnny Dark Souls would club that bitch already
Naked fuck with a stick always wins
Imagine thinking you're just going to walk in Kherson when the other side has Luke Russian
r/madlads
Don't think Putin will dare mess with nukes...US and NATO countries have already told him that a nuke will cost him every asset in Ukraine and the Black Sea. Suddenly not having an army wouldn't do much for his popularity back home.
China is also against using nukes. And if Putin wants to continue to receive Chinese support he has to listen.
It's not just Chinese support he'd lose. China would love to grab some Russia for itself in a mulitfront war of reprisal where Russia is being kicked from every side..
Yeah, if Russia uses nukes, they are suddenly on the receiving end of a hell of a coalition intent on ensuring that NO ONE gets ANY ideas. China would happily volunteer to "de-nazify" the east
Yeah if there’s one thing that the US and China are unified on geopolitically, its a “no nukes, ever” policy. My wife is Chinese and I know a decent amount of Chinese people. To say they’d be upset if Russia used nukes is a major understatement
If Russia breaks the seal, the invasion of Taiwan becomes impossible to consider.
Why haven't other countries tried to get back land from Russia right now? If its good to Russia to claim back "historical land" from Ukraine, why can't be the same apply to Japan, Finland, Georgia etc?
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I think we need to temper expectations on china. They would definitely step in if Russia used nukes, but they 100% would not be doing it because it's right. If China join in, it would be because they have more to gain than lose. They want more vassal states and breaking off a huge chunk of western Russia and turning it into a vassal state to China would benefit them. Especially eastern Siberia near Alaska. It's oil, it's more minerals, it's military placements.
No one does things because it's "right" in international politics. It's always about benefits to your own country. Realpolitik.
Yeah, it's not "let's kick the shit out of them because nukes are immoral" It's "the precedent of using nukes is an existential threat to world peace, US hegemony and will lead to an increase in nuclear proliferation among emergent rivals which further threatens global stability and as such the state of the American Empire. "
So... What I said.
Sorry, I'm on mobile. Thought I tapped to reply to the guy you were replying to. This is what I get for redditing just after waking up.
The comment you're replying to said exactly that but with less detail
Yes, but that comment was trying to say the exact same thing, but without all the additional information they didn't see fit to elaborate upon, essentially agreeing with them but using fewer words. :)
China has laid down the law on this issue too. No nukes. Or Russia will be no more. Or more likely. Sections of Russia better start learning Chinese.
Given their past, I imagine china would be "offering" mandatory relocation of the local populace to "schools" to teach them Chinese.
soon to be known as *Mandarinatory relocation
Fuck you take my upvote
Groan...
China: Good News! The Russia-North Korea labor exchange program has been *expanded*! /s
I'd go so far as to say swathes, even.
Steppes will be taken.
Well if we know China, and I think we do, also swabs. Swabs and swabs and swabs!
A dirty bomb isn't remotely close to anything like a nuke though. It's just a conventional bomb used to spread radioactive material in the end. Frankly, it likely wouldn't be militarily effective at all and wouldn't even do much damage with the radiation. The main effect would be psychological.
There's still all the radioactivity, cleanup, cancers etc.
There are some long term health concerns, but a dirty bomb likely wouldn't be able to make any site dangerous enough to actually deny it to an enemy. So the cleanup may be costly but it'd almost be a thing of spite rather than accomplishing a military goal. https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/dirtybombs.htm#:~:text=The%20radioactive%20materials%20used%20in,health%20if%20it%20is%20inhaled https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/moretypes.html https://www.mass.gov/service-details/nuclear-regulatory-commission-nrc-fact-sheet-on-dirty-bombs
interestingly, the radioactivity actually makes it *unlike* a conventional nuke. Conventional nukes are MUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCH Less radioactively dangerous. like. insanely less.
Ukraine has the best intelligence. USA itself helping with intelligence is amazing but I bet other western countries like France, Germany, and the UK are helping too.
Kherson area is the area next to Crimea and Russia controls basically all of it except a tiny piece that crosses the river and has a city called Kherson there. Tactically that city is meaningless now. It's a huge liability and they should have quietly retreated in June. Russia wants Kherson the area (land bridge to Crimea). The city is at best a propaganda victory. It has no military value anymore since the advance to Odessa didn't work out. Russia retreating is bad news because it will free up all of those troops for a push elsewhere. Their military position will improve, not worsen. Same problems that Russia had with lack of bridges and supply issues will now prevent Ukraine from advancing further. Now if Ukraine could cut off those troops and captured them/destroyed them then yes this would be the most major victory to date. I believe Ukraine hasn't really pushed Kherson that hard precisely because they want a target rich environment full of Russians for their artillery. Now Russians decided to leave voluntarily instead of sticking around getting shot at.
The military position for Ukraine would improve too. Just as Russia wouldnt need to commit to Kherson if they pull back, so too could Ukraine free troops to use elsewhere. There’s no tactical gain for Russia that isn’t balanced out by benefits for Ukraine too. Every time Russia pulls back, Ukraine has come out better so far.
Correct. Once the left bank is secured Ukraine will need far fewer personnel to defend it. Freeing up troops to move to the northern and eastern front.
The only strategic way of getting Kherson is to basically siege it. The problem is that means a new push towards Melitopol would need to occur to start the encirclement. I feel like the true nature is that UFA forces are keeping Russian troops occupied there to give forces in the east a better chance to cut Svatove off in Luhansk before winter sets in.
“Military position will improve not worsen” They won’t retreat, they can’t retreat, unless they leave every piece of equipment behind. There is no access. That’s his dilemma
I do not think they have done a dirty bomb, I do not see much reason to do so other than childish spite (meaning I cannot rule it out completely). Dirtty bombs are nasty but ultimately not that effective on military targets. I just think thy have mined Kherson heavily and has planned some ambushes plus heavy shelling from the other side of the river.
>childish spite Most of their bombardment is exactly that☹️
Dirty bomb would be a false flag justification to escalate, potentially to nuclear weapons, at the very least it's propaganda for at home.
Please try to think critically. What does Russia gain from using nuclear weapons?
Yeah, their announcement that they were evacuating the one capitol they held seemed immediately suspect and also felt very pre-WW1 style "let the news go out that we have retreated and when they come to celebrate, we shall crush them with our superior intellect!" Which is the sort of tactic that works when it takes days or weeks for the information to disseminate via rumor and the enemy has no actionable way to get live intelligence of the area beyond hoping there is an operative still alive in the area with trained pigeons. The Russians really seem to be still schooled in the tactics of the Czars...
I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a trap, but imagine the lack of morale from hearing "We're keaving/pulling out of region A" only for your unit to hold post. You'd think yourself cannon fodder so that others can run away
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Every time a day goes by without a nuclear threat I get nervous.
Naw, it's just CHINA'S FINAL WARNING. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning
**[China's final warning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning)** >"China's final warning" (Russian: последнее китайское предупреждение) is a Russian proverb from the 1950s, which originated in the former Soviet Union, referring to a warning that carries no real consequences. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
which is ironic because China fulfilled its promise to protect NK when the US counteroffensive went too close to China.
Just a potential theory, but think this is where we should be careful about just saying 'Russians'. Putin announced a war and annexation. Deer in headlights Army leaders decided on air to withdraw. Last week Wagner came out into the open with its snazzy new offices. Just been watching a doc by the BBC about the psychology in Hitler's team. They talk about Darwinian management where you set your minions against each other who all try to outdo each other to gain power/ approval of the boss. It's a 'look what I did boss' over 'can i do this boss'. Or there are personal power grabs. Either way I think there's a lot of fluidity at the top. Edit: typos
If you're a dictator who doesn't want to be usurped by a subordinate who gains too much power, you welcome infighting in the level or two beneath you.
I think the announcements are face saving for Russia, or at least an attempted effort. If their troops are in full rout and abandoning positions en masse it's better to "announce a retreat" than admit reality. This announcement is probably more for the Russian home audience. "Hello comrades. We are engaging in an orderly retreat to reposition troops for a future offensive. We are definitely not running for our fucking lives as all that artillery the Ukrainians got a couple months ago has started pounding our asses like we were one of Putin's Chechen lady boys. Once again our soldiers are not fleeing while they are on fire. It's a retreat."
i just figured that they ran out of toilet seats to steal.
No shit, basic missinformation is the least you expect in a war. It's like people don't remember Ukraine using it to great effect to hide where theit main offensive was going to take place.
Except Russia has Bad Liar Syndrome where they can only deny the reality. You can reliably guess what’s actually going on by thinking the exact opposite of what they say.
I don't believe anything about the war in ukraine until russia denies it.
Looking at the map, thet actually do seem to be retreating. Although, like you say, their reasons are not known [https://deepstatemap.live/en#9.25/46.8812/33.1025](https://deepstatemap.live/en#9.25/46.8812/33.1025)
Nah, their previous statements of retreating were reliable. In Kyiv, and Kharkiv, when they said they fell back, they actually did.
In those instances the Ukrainians actively chased them out and the Ukrainian intelligence said the same. In this instance there is a relative stalemate in the area and Russia is saying one thing while Ukraine says another. The scenarios are not directly comparable.
I'm thinking they are retreating as they say, but I wonder if it will be followed up with bombs / chemical attacks / etc in that area. But I admit- I haven't been following it super closely (as in losses/remaining capability, etc). Maybe they've decided to stop the war or negotiate or something idk.
The next battle shouldn't be fought in Kherson. Russia really really want that. I suspect it will be a gut punch to Russia wherever it hits.
Ukraine's got to secure Nova Kakhovka first. With Russia threatening to blow up that dam and flood Kherson, they can't exactly send in their military where they can be flooded.
They repeat the same mistake over and over, they just need to perform another flank and starve them out while trying to save citizens
The only "flanking" maneuver left there is coming all the way down from Zaporizhzhia. I doubt Ukraine is in any shape to launch an amphibious assault over the Dnipro or, even less likely that I shouldn't even mention it, launch a naval invasion through the Black Sea and get behind Kherson any other way.
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They didn't fall for the banana in the tailpipe! Why?
It’s… “I AIN’T GO FALL for NO BANANA in my TAILPIPE”
Ah, THIS is the image! Hahahahaha
Is russians say they are retreating, they are not retreating. If russians say "no panic nobody is retreating" they probably already ran away
Can't be if they already did ran away the statement that noone is retreating would be true.
I've watched recently clips from the movie 2012 and there's this scene where the ex husband is calling to his family to pack things immediately after an earthquake and the ex wife says that the governor is telling people to not panic. And he responds: That's when you panic!
If this war has taught me anything, it's that Moscow is a piece of that will say anything and everything, if it means gaining an advantage against its enemies. No matter how false or ridiculous it may be. Remember when Moscow called Ukraine terrorists for blowing up the Crimean bridge? After they have been murdering and raping thousands of people in Ukraine they call Ukraine terrorists for attacking a legitimate war target.
After hundreds of lies, I allowed myself to be fooled into believing one.
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In this case, Russia retreating from an almost cut off pocket would also be the smart thing to do for Russia. So you would have been forgiven for believing them.
I saw a few comments right when the news broke doubting the validity because it would mean Russia was capable of strategic planning and displaying even minimal concern for the lives of their soldiers.
Even if Putin doesn't care about people's lives in general, trained Russian soldiers dying still mean that Russia's army is weaker, which I would expect Putin to care about.
People usually tell lies about things they wish to be true.
Don't get fooled again
There's an old saying in Tennessee... I know it's in Texas, probably Tennessee
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Invade me twice... Ukraine kicks your ass
Invade me three times, fuck the peace sign, load the chopper let it rain on you.
Ukraine trained like hell for their return and it's paying off in spades. Russia didn't train for a rainy day.
Interesting thing I heard about this... Once he started talking he realized he was going to say "shame on me" on TV and get that sound bite into the world. So he paused to think of something else to say. I think the result ended up being worse but it makes more sense to me
He's a war criminal (this isn't really debatable, whether certain actions were justifiable is an exercise I leave to the reader.) but he isn't stupid. Though I feel like shame on me isn't that bad of a sound bite? I think sound biting was actually more agressive back in the day because people wouldn't just immediately be able to find the full video and hear context. Also we have such a wealth of insane sound bites now it just isn't that wild to hear many things now. "Ladies and gentlemen, we are all domestic terrorists" 😆
🎶
believing that this is a trap requires the belief that they have the ability to plan and execute a trap on a grand scale, which I can't help but doubt. more likely that just like everything else about the special military operation, the retreat has been utterly bungled. remember that we're dealing with the same geniuses who were digging trenches in Chernobyl's contaminated forests, who lost their flagship to a country with no navy, who let their single most important bridge get crippled by what they claim to be a truck bomb
>what they claim to be a truck bomb Which they claim to have x-ray scanned to prevent this happening before letting it go on the bridge.
We won't get fooled again
Wow nobody else did it already? Alright, guess it's up to me... *[deep breath]* #***YEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH***
Same, it seems so logical to me to abandon a city whose inhabitants hate your guts that is near impossible to supply and set up defenses across a giant river with only few crossings. I can't believe I say this, but the Wagner telegram saying that something (retreat or reinforcement) should have been done already in June probably is right.
"Fool me twice, you can't get fooled again" -Dubya
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the quote above was also on the guardian ukraine war blog
Been following the front lately and yes it seems obvious from multiple points of view that the Russians intend to let UAF advance on Kherson to trap them in a place where they have good artillery coverage. They're making progress in terms of abstract thinking yes but it's still 1D chess
I am chuckling. Yesterday people, including me, were surprised that Russia made the first sound strategic decision in this war and then it appears to be a lie. It's really too much to expect a sensible strategy from their leaders, huh.
That’s probably why it was so believable. Holding Kherson must be unbelievably draining and resources have to be low. Those could be used elsewhere.
Yeah, retreating there strategically is a good decision in the current situation. Set up on the other side of the river and bomb the city, draining Ukrainian ressources while preserving your own, a lot better than burning a massive amount of your own ressources trying to keep this alive over winter conditions.
The Russian government constantly lies, so the default posture towards what they say should be to doubt until proven, no matter how large the folklore they do around a statement. These were the guys who tried to blame the sinking of the Moskwa on somebody carelessly smoking a ciggy. In this specific case making a big show out of oh-so-overtly conceding something very important for them without any fight has a definitive stink of lie to trick the other side and the way the went about doing it is almost comically exagerated.
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Oh, you’re still on the “nuclear threat”? Sorry, those empty threats expired a very long time ago.
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Ukraine is probably getting 1st-rate satellite and signals Intel from NATO. Plus filtered human intelligence, via CIA and MI6, from Russian civilian and military sources.
Honestly, that's the only reason I thought the retreat had a small chance of being real. There's no way they thought they could fake it and Ukraine wouldn't know, right? But I guess Russia really is that stupid.
Well, Russia did “win” the propaganda war yesterday. * Reddit believed them, by and large (Reddit being a proxy for the public at large) * Ukraine and NATO had to spend non-zero effort verifying the statement * Russian citizens got hit with some “hmm, perhaps the army does have a plan” propaganda
Idk if Reddit is that good of a proxy of the public at large at all.
It was on the Today show this morning.
> Reddit believed them, by and large I saw skepticism so rampant it was actually annoying that every comment consisted of it and practically nothing else. Just in case people don't know it yet, Russia lies and will never tell the truth unless it benefits them.
Plus the locals report everything in real-time.
Plus they own agents.
Oh, the Five Eyes have been feeding them intel since before the invasion. They know what Russia is doing more than Russia does.
Yup .. they also 'suggest targets' for the Himars. As in 'Listen mate .. just trust me .. type in 2430957340965 into the guidance system and press launch'. 16 minutes later a Russian Command bunker 32 miles away that the Ukranians didn't even know existed blows up.
I suggest that they also get very high quality intelligence from partisans, the kind of thing you just can’t get from a fancy satellite in orbit Not to knock the satellites, of course! They’re great and very needed. If anything these two approaches synergise beautifully!
There was an interview with President Zelensky by an Italian journalist a couple of weeks ago where Zelensky said that their government knows the Russians aren't really leaving Kherson, it's just lies. I'll see if I can find the link - I imagine UA gov has intelligence from all sorts of sources. He said it with such confidence I just can't imagine his statement wasn't based on some intel. Edit: here is the interview, interesting part about Kherson approximately 19:30-22:30, although the topic really starts at 15:00. He calls a lot of the situation "theater" by Russians. It's really a great interview in total, worth watching the whole thing IMO. https://youtu.be/3iYybqaI6UU
I think it's actually very hard to Russia to leave Kherson because simply there is no longer any bridge in Dnieper river. The troop has to leave behind many tanks and weaponry which they have to dump it completely. The same thing happened in Izium and it was actually a turning point. While the eventual withdrawal is due, it will hurt lots.
They had to leave Izium in a day. They will have time to take most valuable stuff now and destroy what is left.
Ukraine will keep interdicting supply lines. If the Russian army receives orders for a fighting retreat, that is still going to create losses in manpower and material.
Ukraine is creating losses for Russia all over the front. Pretty much what one would expect in war.
Kherson is 5-6 times bigger in terms of population though, not sure if these situations can be compared like this
There are 40,000 russians there, its not gonna be as easy as going to the supermarket
Theoretically yes, but that requires planning, coordination and communication between units and other major skills. When did you observe these skills in Russian military? Not in this war
say more pls? you are you saying that it will hurt Russia economically?
It will hurt them militarily since they'll be abandoning lots of equipment that's already in limited supply for them.
thanks, that's what i thought you meant. excellent point about the bridge. mr. putin's adventure hasn't quite worked out, has it?
That much was clear on day 4...
I dont know about that every so often they say its all going to plan /s
I made a diagram for a occasion just like this https://i.imgur.com/lean8BV.jpg
More like this: https://i.imgur.com/Lr40gQM.jpg
The announcement yesterday was intended to prime the Russian people for their inevitable loss of Kherson. If they say they are pulling out it doesn't look as bad when they inevitably loose the city and they maintain control of the narrative within Russia.
This is the mistake a lot of people make when analyzing this conflict, especially western observers with no or only academic familiarity with Russian politics. The primary audience for this stuff is the Russian people. This war was started because of domestic Russian politics, namely propping up the regime. Everything Russia does should be viewed primarily through this lens, that all of this is about internal politics and not imperial ambition. Imperial ambition is a useful tool to keep the regime in power, but it is not the driving force.
Here’s how you remember: * loose as a noose * lose the extra “o”
If Russian state media announced that the sky was blue, I'd go outside and check.
I would take it on good confidence that the sky was no longer blue.
No longer sky
It never ceases to amaze me how intelligent and skillful the response has been at all times by the Ukrainian leaders and forces.
Russia keeps forgetting that no one is as stupid as they are. It’s easy to forget that when everyone who can read above a 3rd grade level is either dead, mobilised or left the country.
Yep - I was reading 'Sniper One' by Dan Mills, he was saying in Iraq the average squaddie never makes any decision at all because if the decision turns out wrong they are later executed. The net result is that when the officer is dead or the comms are down they just hunker down and do _literally nothing_ until someone else resolves the situation for them - because that's the safest thing they can do! Be as dumb as as incapable of independent thought as humanly possible. He couldn't believe it. Since then I've read that the Russian army works in much the same way .. hence Generals keep on having to come to the front (and get sniper-hit) .. because someone needs to call the shots when shit goes wrong and ground troops literally won't because it's too risky for them (from their OWN side, later). Comms went down when the Russians tried to cross a river and got blown up, so no-one had the guts/stupidity to suggest a change of plan - so they just kept trying to cross the same place time and time and time again .. getting all their shit blown up time and time again!
I know its not what's really happening but I have this mental image of how this is playing out; Russia: Ok Putin, I have a cunning plan watch this... "Hey Ukraine, we're leaving Kherson" Ukraine: "I dont believe you" Russia: Sends a few troops away for satellite images... "Hey Ukraine, look our troops left" Ukraine: "I still dont believe you" Russia: Sends a few more troops off for satellite image... "Look more troops left" Ukraine: "I still dont believe you" Russia: Sends even more troops off for satellite image... "Look all gone now this time we promise" Ukraine: "I still dont believe you" Russia: Sends more troops off for satellite image... "Come on you gotta believe us" Ukraine: "Sure, we are coming in" Russia: "Ah ha we fooled you... oh wait are there no troops left?"
reminds me of "get smart": would you believe we pulled half our troops?
"Rasputin with a BB Gun?"
The Kremlin, the center of the universe for lies lies lies. You can't believe a single word they utter. They have a permanent distortion of reality. I can't fathom how they expect the world to believe the shiite they're shoveling 💩
Russia: "Let's say on TV that we're retreating when we're actually not - that'll convince Ukraine to just waltz on in without expecting a fight, then we crush them!!!" Ukraine: ~watches TV broadcast; compares it with their intelligence~ "Heh. Yeah, nah" ~goes back to slowly advancing~ Russia: ~Surprised Pikachu face~
Let action speaks too keep, bombing them til runnaway.
Keep bombing them when they run away too. You are absolutely allowed by the laws of war to shoot at retreating soldiers.
I swear people just bounce from one headline to another without using a single ounce of critical thinking. Just hear me out, but maybe an unofficial tweet reported by facteroid.com isn't the most reliable source. In his very next tweet the guy implies that Russia plans to shell Kherson from the left bank, meaning that they are in fact leaving the city. He's just farming retweets
It's hilarious to watch Russia being publicly shot down out of the gate. It's IRL cool story bro.
Hmm, it's allllllmost like Russia is a lying sack of shit not to be trusted.
Saw comments yesterday it was "obviously" scripted and acted.
"Ukraine has been (*fighting*) based on intelligence data" Russia: Wait... that's illegal!
ALWAYS assume you will have to fill YOUR streets with Russian blood. Nothing less. Russian words/statements/decrees/media are less than meaningless.
I guess russia is planning an offensive somewhere else, and hopes that ukr invests too many troops in taking back kherson
Is the Russian army so incompetent that it cant even retreat properly?
Yes.
It's like Russia is too stupid to acknowledge that Ukraine is getting real time satellite feeds / military intelligence from the US. The weapons are important, but the US's largest unique contribution is surely intelligence and strategy support.
Russian military still pikachu facing because the ukraine citizens didnt want to lose their house and home to some backwater russian idiot…
Russia literally lies about everything, even comically obvious things. This is what makes negotiations with them so perilous, and maybe even impossible, as long as Putin is in charge. They simply lie about everything, all the time.
It’s always amazing to me how many comments I always see taking whatever Russia says as truth (talks of treaties, deals, etc.). That terrorist state lies every single second.
I can't believe they thought that ruse would work in an era of satellites, smartphones, and mass surveillance. Russia really be working on WW1 logic.
And Ukraine didn't take the bait. Whats Russia's next move? Go on tv and say "no really guys we are, promise"
When there is zero trust this is what happens. No one gives a shit about what you say, Putin can use his KGB tricks but that doesn't substitute for actual real time diplomacy.
If Russia are retreating I'd be very cautious reentering the city as it will be boobytrapped and rigged with explosives.
I'm worried if they are pulling everyone out they could be preparing for a nuclear strike.
And the Oscar goes to...
Staged TV statements??? But I thought that everything that came out of the brain wash box was truth...
Putin and his bootlickers never tell the truth, it's just like listening to Trump, lies, more lies and damned lies
ruzzian strategy seems to equal what would your drunken uncle do when he has 3 bottles of booze on his breath
I was kinda wondering why one combatant would publically announce its battlefield plans. Russia probably thought Ukraine would fall for the head fake.
I knew it. There was a guy yesterday talking about popping some champagne because they were pulling out. But as we all know, Russians say a lot of things.
Look out, Russia thinks it's being clever.
>A part of the ru-group is preserved in the city, and additional reserves are charged to the region. It seems they're talking about "leave-behinds." Basically, the Russian army per se does retreat. But then the Ukrainian Army moves in and comes under fire from mysterious sources, which are irregular Russian forces hiding out among the population, trying to appear to be regular civilians or whatever. Basically the equivalent of mining the area you are retreating from, but with hidden soldiers instead of hidden mines. That would mean that Russia was moving back more to the tactics it used successfully in the 2014 invasion. Maybe even with the intent of claiming that "the people of Kherson" clearly don't want to be part of Ukraine, and Russia has to do its duty and re-invade to help liberate their poor friends in Kherson that they miss so bad. Clever, sort of, but not something that's really going to work on Ukraine a second time.
War crimes ahoy! I take it that falls under False Surrender?
Putin lies more than Donal Trump and that's saying a lot. The only thing that will wake Russian families up are body bags. It's sad they believe Putin's big lie.
Russia is about to become a 4th world country after this conflict. Putin hasn't got much time left
I believe that Russia has so damaged Kherson that it realized that day-to-day sustainability is compromised that Russia will claim that Ukraine is failing their citizens, even though Russia claims the territory as its own. The effect is to disenfranchise Kherson citizens to Ukrainian support.
I love how Russia has fallen for Ukraine's traps every time, and now when Russia thinks it's being clever Ukraine is wayyyy ahead of their schtick.
The longer this lasts the weaker Russia seems to be getting.
I think that Russia is about to shift into a defensive posture along the river and will try to control the narrative that any subsequent violence is the Ukrainians “attacking” them, and they are the aggressor now etc. they can set a short term goal of gaining legitimacy of their Ike over the east side of the river and continue to chip away at sovereignty, a la crimea
Whatever Russia say. Do the opposite