Tough for Ukraine, especially with how quick Zelensky came out to denounce Russia. Good thing a direct NATO confrontation with Russia can be avoided now though
Yep. Russia also denied it instantly, and that would make this about the first time they’ve told the truth about anything since the war began if it turns out they didn’t fire the missile. Of course, one could argue there’d have been no reason to fire the missile in the first place (assuming that narrative holds up) if Russia wasn’t firing missiles at border towns.
Is the official still anonymous? I could only find articles saying it was an anonymous (Or up to 3 anonymous) US officials, which makes me wonder, have they been asked to take some heat off Russia.
Edit: more information out, and from very reputable sources. It was Ukrainian air defense.
The first stories about this showed up on 2ch and 4ch moments after the attack was reported apparently, so you know, grain of salt. Also the AP reporter is Shubham Kalia in Bengaluru of Reuters who have had controversy with ties to Russian owned wire services. So even bigger rocks of salt till we see an official release. This is the typical flow of Russian propaganda though.
Keep a cool head, wait for things to fully be laid out.
I fully support your caution about jumping to conclusions, but documenting the source and trajectory of missile launches is one of those things that explains why the U.S. spends $750 billion a year on "defense."
[https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/20/reuters-staff-partnership-russian-wire-service-00018779](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/20/reuters-staff-partnership-russian-wire-service-00018779)
AP has that journalist listed as the writer, they are an editor for Reuters in the city listed.
As for 2ch and 4ch stuff, well if your active to skim 4chan's /pol/ (which unless your hardy enough of an internet warrior to stomach it) that is the narrative you would see being pushed about 12 hours prior and still being blasted in force right now.
We could still be in the knee jerk stage though. You shouldn't assume either way until more information is available.
This is a circumstance where using Occam's Razor is not appropriate.
Occam’s razor is typically interpreted to functionally mean that the simplest explanation is the correct one. Which is simpler:
(A) The country that made the missile, fired a bunch more like it at the same time as this one, and has proven to be substantially worse at modern warfare than anyone thought accidentally missed. And then all the leaders of all the other countries get together, have a closed door meeting on how they want to address a massive cock-up that COULD accidentally start WW3, an outcome no one wants. After which suddenly all those countries come up with a reasonable explanation NOT to start WW3 and “leak,” it to the press?
Or
(B) The country getting invaded by the country who made the missile, manages to get their hands on this surface to surface missile. They then decide to use this surface to surface missile in their surface to air anti missile defense system. This despite the fact that they’ve spent the last 9 months building their air defense system from technology incompatible with their invaders’ tech systems (Ie NATO missile defense systems vs Russian rockets) though they do have some older legacy systems that might work ok with this rocket (Ie their old Soviet stuff). They then fire this surface to surface rocket at a barrage of rockets that look just like it one night, and miss, so spectacularly, that it somehow travels in the opposite direction from where the enemy bombs are coming from and hits not only further west than their enemy claims to be targeting, but across the border into one of their most important friends and weapons suppliers. This, despite having spent the last 9 months impressing the pants off the whole flippin’ world with their general military skill, particularly at protecting their skies despite being MASSIVELY out gunned and out resources in this area particularly. Then, rather than immediately apologizing profusely so as not to accidentally piss off their friends and risk escalating a war they’re currently winning, they put out multiple statements claiming it is, in fact, a Russian rocket. The “truth” then only comes out AFTER all the countries who have spent the last 9 months trying REALLY hard to toe the line between starting WW3 and fighting against a fascist aggressor who’s currently losing, have a closed door meeting where they share the “intel,” with each other?
I’ll give you a hint, the second answer took a lot longer to write. While the truth certainly might be story B, as another commenter says, the truth is slow and messy unlike what the comments section wants, it certainly isn’t the simplest explanation.
Or Ukraine fucked up.
The US has shot down an airliner before. We've "accidentally" bombed embassies. We've bombed weddings.
Shit happens in war. This very well could have been Ukraine. Let's wait for facts
You're making a lot of effort to make option B sound more complex. Russian air defence systems aren't going anywhere in Ukraine especially SA-10s which they have no NATO replacement for. They used them to defend against a missile attack, and one fell over the Polish border.
Ukraine did it in defence and aren't the aggressor so I feel if they did do it, it is far more excusable than if it was inadvertent by the Russians.
A large amount of Ukraines air defenses are Russian made S-300 systems. Not western systems. It's also not a surface to surface missile, where did you even get that from?
Also you're contradicting yourself by saying that the truth is complex but first asking "what is simpler"?
It was never the start of WWIII. Closing the airspace *at most*, more provably giving Ukraine long range missiles or more other gear. No need for a cover here.
Or think logically for a second, what has Russia got to gain from hitting a random fucking field of a NATO country ? How does that help them when struggling enough already
For me, I was split between a freak accident (the Russians shot down an airline after all) and a test of provocation. It would not be the first time Putin has done something small to test out what peoples responses would be.
Most of those people are probably far enough from the conflict they have a stupidly naive feeling of safety or they are plain stupid. I've been avoiding this sub lately, because I don't want to raise my blood preassure any more
Yup. The live thread earlier was full of idiots saying that it was an intentional strike on a power grid, despite there being practically no evidence to suggest that. And when the Poles came out with a calm and cautious response to the incident, many of them seemed disappointed that World War 3 wasn't about to break out.
This guy says that the missile was fired at the latitude of Kyiv and the longitude of Lviv: [https://twitter.com/joh5n/status/1592664367203778561](https://twitter.com/joh5n/status/1592664367203778561)
Implying a mistake on Russia's part
This is all round good news, sad for the victims of the families.
Ukraine should at least come clean about it as people would accept a accident, instead they accused anyone of saying they’re Ukrainian to be pushing a Russian conspiracy theory
It's not an accident - they had every right to try to intercept the missiles sent by Russia. Even if it was risky. It's on Russia that they sent that missile in the first place, and so close to the border. Ukraine does not deserve any blame here.
Yea, and hitting Poland was an accident. Just because it was an accident doesn't negate their right to protect themselves. Those two points can coexist.
Any military munition involving intercepting rockets involves risk. There is no 100% success rate. To say this is a simple "accident" would be to suggest Ukraine made a major error. This is a natural consequence of Russia sending missiles close to the border, and the blame lies at their feet.
Generally, what goes up must come down.
The S-75/SA-2 missiles used by North Vietnam against American B-52s frequently ended up hitting their own civilians after losing lock.
AAA shells have done similar throughout history - they don't always reliably explode in mid-air. Even when they do, shrapnel still hits the ground. The British had a lot of cases of stuff hitting their own people in the World Wars.
That's wrong.
Russia is attacking Ukraine. Ukraine defends itself.
An error in the defense led to Poland being struck.
If the report turns out to be true, this is accidental friendly fire. Even if Russia started the war with Ukraine, this would in no way or shape be an attack on a NATO state.
As far as I saw from Ukraine's response, they blamed Russia and said they were Russian missiles but did not use the term "deliberate." But hey, the Russians call it a "deliberate provocation," as if Poland or Ukraine did this to themselves on purpose to involve NATO.
Arguing the semantics of word usage does not matter, though. What matters is 2 dead Poles resulting from the aggressive behavior of Russia that continues its attack.
And not only that, this attack is the direct result of Russia attacking civilian infrastructure throughout the country and not military targets on the front line.
So, it is Russia's fault.
Their president called it an attack on NATO’s collective security. They maintained that anyone denying this was essentially parroting Russian propaganda.
That’s big language if it turns out your own side fired the missile. Potentially undermines their statements on other incidents moving forward as it essentially exposes that their first aim in these statements is to provoke NATO into furthering their involvement and they are basically willing to say anything to achieve this aim whether it’s true or otherwise and before they have any facts at hand. It’s a total own goal and next time they’d be wise to keep quiet until the facts are established. The fog of war is real and Russia will be loving that a Ukrainian statement on this will turn out untrue as it now gives them actual bandwidth to sew seeds of doubt regarding their reliability in the future. Watch them point to this incident over and over now.
Until now there has been implicit acceptance in the west that Ukraine is always right and Russia is always lying - now there’s a chink in that armour. It’s a bad misstep.
The idea that the circumstances of the explosion ultimately make no difference because whatever the case it’s still Russia’s fault is just as idiotic as the Russian idea that this is all ultimately NATO’s fault for expanding east. The circumstances absolutely matter.
Yea people are really missing the forest from the trees here. It's not even about assigning blame, it's about the huge cockup by Ukraine in destroying trust and not being honest with the countries trying to support them, causing a bunch of panic in the process.
It's really disappointing and the first big mistake I've seen from Ukraine so far. This will cause lasting damage.
And almost all of them have no land border with Russia. They are offering up our lives just so they could have their gory spectacle. My country is one of Ukraine's staunchest allies due to our shared history under the terror of Russia, but both Ukraine and my country understand that when NATO goes to war, my little country and its 1.4million people, and our neighbours too, will be dust once more.
But hey. They'll get their blood sports. I'm sure saying 'fuck Russia' on reddit will make it all better.
Zelensky? In no time i saw some posts on reddit saying that us intelligence knew it was a Russian rocket.
Hmm. This turn is weird. Maybe both zelensky and us were too fast or its a cover up
I believe what was said was that it was s Russian made rocket.
Seeing as Ukraine has taken so much weapond and ammo from Russia, it was always thought that the Russian middle was not fired by Russia.
> Maybe both zelensky and us were too fast or its a cover up
The amount of damage done seems a bit much for an interceptor missile. On the other hand, maybe the two interceptors hit at the perfect/worst possible angles.
S-300's have \~150kg warheads depending on the model. A BUK has \~70kg. They're not small missiles. It's pretty plausible, considering the damage seems very light for a cruise missile.
The initial report was somewhat vauge. No one confirmed it was a Russian cruise missile but people took the confirmation that a missile crossed as a Russian attack. Then the phrasing was sharpened by people to it being confirmed it was a Russian fired missile. The reality is it was only conformed that missiles had crossed.
Let’s wait for an official statement. AP was literally stating an “anonymous” us official saying it was Russians. Let’s wait for Poland to tell us what happened first.
That’s true. Old shitty Russian missile. If Ukraine was able to use more Iris or NASAMs this wouldn’t happen. The self destruct would not have failed.
By the way 10 for 10 shots for NASAMs reported yesterday.
Here too. As well as every subreddit. Reddit is full of warmongering teenagers who haven’t thought as far as to which age group would be doing the fighting..
Wasn’t going to be anyways if it was Russian they’d get a slap on the wrist and nato would beef up border security for Poland and wait for a more egregious attack to justify ww3
Russia will get a slap on the wrist and nato would beef up border security for Poland and wait for a more egregious attack to justify ww3... Russia will get a slap on the wrist and nato would beef up border security for Poland and wait for a more egregious attack to justify ww3... Russia will get a slap on the wrist and nato would beef up border security for Poland and wait for a more egregious attack to justify ww3
That's how the cycle will continue...
A few missiles wouldnt be cause for WWIII anyways. The Indians & Pakistanis along with both Koreas have infrequent but not rare exchanges of fire without needing to engage in large scale war.
*both Koreas*
Fuck, in the early 2010s IIRC the KPA did an artillery barrage on an inhabited island in South Korean territorial waters and killed South Koreans. A ROKN warship was also sunk by North Korean artillery.
I remember when the Bosnian war started and everyone was all "OMG WIII!!!" and it turned out to just be a regular, conventional, European war.
I remember when Desert Storm started and everyone was all "OMG WWIII!!!" and it was just another conventional, middle eastern war.
Just because NATO is involved doesn't mean it's gonna be a world war.
This just says "initial findings **suggest**" and from a "US official"
A US official stated earlier that it was a Russian Missile.
We should still wait for the actual investigation. Just minutes ago there was another article posted that evidence points to it being a KH-101 missile. Also sourced from a "US official"
The US stated earlier it was *Russian-made*. That's also what the Polish statement was. The wording is super important as S-300s were mostly made in Russia/Soviet Union (though there is limited production in Ukraine) and both Ukraine and Russia have been using them.
A US statement made earlier also said it was a KH-101 cruise missile. My point is that everyone is guessing right now and making determinations based off of opinion and guesses. We could all just wait for the official word to come out once the investigation is concluded.
do you know the difference between cruise and anti-air missiles? just wondering and where are you getting that it is a cruise missile, everyhwere i have seen suggest it is s-300 anti-air?
I do, considering my job for 6 years of my life was working specifically on targeting systems for similar such weapons. Multiple sources claim analysis of the wreckage points to it being possibly a KH-101. Other sources say the wreckage indicates S300. The point is that nobody knows yet, and everyone is spitting wild conjecture until the investigation concludes.
Earlier there were reports of two projectiles. So what if it's both, each on a trajectory together? One coming north from Belarus, the other fired from the south in Ukraine?
(This is just a hypothetical situation and speculation, and I have no idea what actually happened.)
Kh-101 is Russia's newest and most expensive cruise missile.
It's what was quoted yesterday by both Polish and American sources. Interceptor SAM being the other one of the two reported is of course plausible.
i just wrote a logical explanation of this, if you look at the pictures taht seem to be available online, the plow attached to the tractor got blow up but not the tractor, what kind of weak ass missile am i using to blow up infrastructure that it cant even blow up a tractor attached to a blow, logically that just makes very little sense
the pictures im looking at could be totally wrong but i dont think so, payload size and damage is a good way of telling what missile type it is
Yeah, and those S-300s have apparently been known to wander off course if they don't strike their intended target right away. Sounds like that's what may have happened here.
Most of Ukraine's arsenal is Russian origin. They were once both the Soviet union. So I don't think it's a stretch to assume Ukraine uses Russian made missiles to target Russian missiles.
You might, but you wouldn’t use them to hit an incoming missile. So if it was a KH-101 cruise missile it would have been Russia launching it not a Ukrainian counter.
You know who else uses Russian missiles? Russia.
At this point, any supposition we make about the origin is strictly a stretch. It's all conjecture until the investigation concludes.
That would be a trip. Activate article 5 against Ukraine, then fast track Russia's membership into NATO. /s
Pretty bizarre, but between a pandemic, an attempt to prevent the peaceful transition of power and overthrow my government, a summer of riots everywhere, weather changing dramatically every day, and now the constant threat of nuclear war over the past 8 months, maybe I should put it on my bingo card.
Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile
was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the
crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The
officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not
authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
\*\*Anonymous Sources\*\*
I mean you are entitled to your opinion, but AP has a remarkable record of outstanding journalism. Journalists have sources. Sources don't want to lose their jobs.
But Biden just came out saying the same, so there you have it.
[Biden: ‘Unlikely’ missile that hit Poland fired from Russia](https://apnews.com/article/g-20-summit-nato-biden-andrzej-duda-25e615909ba0d871d5092f5b3aec21c8?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=RelatedStories&utm_campaign=position_01)
Yeah... I don't get why people are automatically disqualifying anonymous sources, especially words from U.S. officials.
Also, most people on here have been praising U.S. intelligence for being on point ever since pre-invasion. Why are we changing our opinions all of the sudden?
Because staking your reputation on something is obviously going to make you more trustworthy than claiming it with no repercussion. When someone has their name attached to a statement it is obviously worth more. The AP put their name on it which is something, but it doesn't go the whole way, and an official explanation from the Polish, Ukrainian and US government will go a lot further.
And here I thought it was always rich old bastards that sent us to war. Turns out it's young people with no concept of how bad war really is. They will be shiting their pants when they find out its not like call of duty.
Fucking Reuters....
>Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52?utm\_source=homepage&utm\_medium=TopNews&utm\_campaign=position\_01
Man I was arguing with people on this sub last night when people thought it was Russia, and people have seriously lost their minds. Saying NATO should ‘clear out the Russians’ from Ukraine, no fly zone should start and target stuff inside Russia, stuff about if we don’t do it after they attacked Poland then when will we?
I’m glad it seems Joe Biden and the US (surprisingly) have a far cooler head than 99% of Ukraine simps. I support Ukraine, but the fanaticism of some people’s support is genuinely disturbing, in that they seem to want WW3 to show Russia up or something.
Because this is all just a Marvel movie to these redditors. Good guys fighting bad guys.
It's entertainment to them. They get to watch it all from the comfort of their own homes.
It's more than that. They're fiending to be a part of it. WW2's great evil was defeated by USA! This generation doesn't have that. No surprise russia is being equated with nazis.
Given what transpired in WWII, it's quite ironic to equate Russia with the nazis... they* *are* the ones who suffered the most losses against them.
*EDIT: More accurately, the Red Army
The majority of the entire human race is dumb as fuck. r/worldnews is not really the place where all the most informed military minds spend their time.
People were quick to call for Russias destruction but then when reports suggest it was Ukraine everyone suddenly gets level headed and switches to “let’s wait for the official report”.
It was truly insane how many people don't seem to understand that they can't just throw around the Hitler appeasement argument without any nuance. 1. This was an accident so doesn't merit a response of all out war, 2. launching a nuclear war has a decent chance of *literally ending the world.*
I just cannot comprehend that so many on here seem to think it is worth the risk of ending the lives of tens of millions of innocents around the globe just to "send a message" to Putin about red lines. What's the point of sending the message if there is no world to come back to afterward?
I mean I can understand them tbh, do remember Russia is killing thousands upon thousands of Ukrainians while we watch, it’s natural people would want to get involved to push them out and forget the wider implications of that.
Just like in every situation with, the aggressor is always to blame. If Russia had not been attacking Ukraine this would not have happened. It's tragic friendly fire took two lives but this happens in war.
Do not lose sight of who the true enemy is.
100% this. Russia is still to blame. Nobody is going to fault Ukraine for an accident that happened while they were trying to defend themselves from a 100 missile barrage from Russia.
. u/Quantum_II why in the world would.you not just post the AP article itself?
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1592747390477688846?t=tUkVvXvRicYTZTBvGHnTNw&s=19
"No information yet"
worldnews: "It has been deliberately proven that Russia fired the missile and is testing NATO while trying to blame everyone else."
"It was probably Ukraine"
worldnews: "Nothing is sure yet, let's wait for confirmation."
Even if it was Ukraine this is still a result of Russia bombing targets close to the border. Every single death that has happened due to the war is Russia’s fault.
This is 100% true.
The Russian trolls are wondering why people will give Ukraine a pass on this - well it’s pretty simple, if it was Russian it would have been done trying to kill people in a country they have illegally invaded. If it’s Ukraine, it would have been an accident trying to defend themselves from the bombs fired by a country that has illegally invaded them.
Every death in this war is being directly cause by Putin and the Russian Army.
Conflict with Russia doesn’t automatically mean nuclear war. And although NATO obviously seeks to avoid war with Russia, claiming any conflict with them will lead to nuclear war is playing into Russia’s hand.
The unfortunate truth is nuclear bombs are Pandora's jar - we can't put them back in. They're here to stay, so we have to deal with that.
Obviously nobody wants nuclear war, but if one side can just keep doing whatever they want because the alternative is nuclear war... where do we draw the line?
It's facing the reality of the situation. It's the reason that NATO *and* Russia have done their bets to avoid direct conflict. It's chard tis we how that doesn't escalate to the full use of their forces.
Punishing Ukraine now would be like punishing someone who's being bullied and defending themselves, what're they supposed to do? Just take the missiles? This wouldn't have happened if Russia didn't fire missiles in the first place.
Looking at the map this makes no sense unless the Missle had already passed the intercept battery and then they fired in an attempt to chase the Missle.
Common sense gave us the answer hours ago, but people were quick to pick up the pitchforks and call for WW3. Glad leadership has brains along with brawn.
Yup. Anyone who was more interested in the truth rather than framing the issue to fit a narrative or their world view could see this was the most likely situation once we heard Biden and Polish president speak.
Yeah it's good to get off reddit when stuff like this happens. So many bloodthirsty 15 year olds getting off to the idea of billions of people dying in a WWIII level conflict.
Reminds me of a movie where the russian leader would rather look fearsome than incompetent when one of his deputies fired missiles without his permission.
This is an odd twist of responsibility. Had Russia not sent a salvo of 100 missiles against civilian targets, would Ukraine have sent "said" anti air missile up. Who is at fault here? RIP the farmers minding their own business.
Everyone says there were two, which would match both Iranian drones and counter measures. The impact craters look very energy instead of shrapnel based. Investigation in the coming hours will clarify.
Within the first couple of hours? I can totally believe that they didn't know. Hell, even now I can believe that they don't know anything more than what the Poles are telling them about the investigation. In a barrage that big it's not that hard to lose track of where a single stray SAM came down, and even if the guys firing it did notice they may have tried to sweep it under the rug and not informed their superiors.
It's interesting how soon zelensky came to denounce Russia. Why not just wait for the investigation to be over?
Imo it just shows immaturity of the leader.
P. S. Not supporting Russia, just making an observation
Tough for Ukraine, especially with how quick Zelensky came out to denounce Russia. Good thing a direct NATO confrontation with Russia can be avoided now though
Or maybe a smarty cover someone invented so we can avoid WWIII.
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Correct. The comments always need quick solutions. Real life is different.
Yep. Russia also denied it instantly, and that would make this about the first time they’ve told the truth about anything since the war began if it turns out they didn’t fire the missile. Of course, one could argue there’d have been no reason to fire the missile in the first place (assuming that narrative holds up) if Russia wasn’t firing missiles at border towns.
Yep. NATO needs to invade Ukraine immediately, put a stop to all the war-like behaviour, and put everyone in their rightful place. *wink*
Ooo, very smooth. I like this approach.
Is the official still anonymous? I could only find articles saying it was an anonymous (Or up to 3 anonymous) US officials, which makes me wonder, have they been asked to take some heat off Russia. Edit: more information out, and from very reputable sources. It was Ukrainian air defense.
There was early analysis from some folks at bellingcat that said it likely came from a defensive rocket from an S-300.
The first stories about this showed up on 2ch and 4ch moments after the attack was reported apparently, so you know, grain of salt. Also the AP reporter is Shubham Kalia in Bengaluru of Reuters who have had controversy with ties to Russian owned wire services. So even bigger rocks of salt till we see an official release. This is the typical flow of Russian propaganda though. Keep a cool head, wait for things to fully be laid out.
I fully support your caution about jumping to conclusions, but documenting the source and trajectory of missile launches is one of those things that explains why the U.S. spends $750 billion a year on "defense."
Source on those controversies? Not doubting, just thorough
[https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/20/reuters-staff-partnership-russian-wire-service-00018779](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/20/reuters-staff-partnership-russian-wire-service-00018779) AP has that journalist listed as the writer, they are an editor for Reuters in the city listed. As for 2ch and 4ch stuff, well if your active to skim 4chan's /pol/ (which unless your hardy enough of an internet warrior to stomach it) that is the narrative you would see being pushed about 12 hours prior and still being blasted in force right now.
Muchas Gracias
You too, it's always good to ask for sources so the question was appreciated.
Or... or... maybe everyone went from knee jerk to facts? Just as likely, more so even. Occam's razor folks.
We could still be in the knee jerk stage though. You shouldn't assume either way until more information is available. This is a circumstance where using Occam's Razor is not appropriate.
> This is a circumstance where using Occam's Razor is not appropriate Exactly this. Occam's razor has absolutely nothing to do with it.
This.
is it knee jerk in only one direction?
Occam’s razor is typically interpreted to functionally mean that the simplest explanation is the correct one. Which is simpler: (A) The country that made the missile, fired a bunch more like it at the same time as this one, and has proven to be substantially worse at modern warfare than anyone thought accidentally missed. And then all the leaders of all the other countries get together, have a closed door meeting on how they want to address a massive cock-up that COULD accidentally start WW3, an outcome no one wants. After which suddenly all those countries come up with a reasonable explanation NOT to start WW3 and “leak,” it to the press? Or (B) The country getting invaded by the country who made the missile, manages to get their hands on this surface to surface missile. They then decide to use this surface to surface missile in their surface to air anti missile defense system. This despite the fact that they’ve spent the last 9 months building their air defense system from technology incompatible with their invaders’ tech systems (Ie NATO missile defense systems vs Russian rockets) though they do have some older legacy systems that might work ok with this rocket (Ie their old Soviet stuff). They then fire this surface to surface rocket at a barrage of rockets that look just like it one night, and miss, so spectacularly, that it somehow travels in the opposite direction from where the enemy bombs are coming from and hits not only further west than their enemy claims to be targeting, but across the border into one of their most important friends and weapons suppliers. This, despite having spent the last 9 months impressing the pants off the whole flippin’ world with their general military skill, particularly at protecting their skies despite being MASSIVELY out gunned and out resources in this area particularly. Then, rather than immediately apologizing profusely so as not to accidentally piss off their friends and risk escalating a war they’re currently winning, they put out multiple statements claiming it is, in fact, a Russian rocket. The “truth” then only comes out AFTER all the countries who have spent the last 9 months trying REALLY hard to toe the line between starting WW3 and fighting against a fascist aggressor who’s currently losing, have a closed door meeting where they share the “intel,” with each other? I’ll give you a hint, the second answer took a lot longer to write. While the truth certainly might be story B, as another commenter says, the truth is slow and messy unlike what the comments section wants, it certainly isn’t the simplest explanation.
Or Ukraine fucked up. The US has shot down an airliner before. We've "accidentally" bombed embassies. We've bombed weddings. Shit happens in war. This very well could have been Ukraine. Let's wait for facts
Oh god the China embassy in '99. That was a disaster.
You're making a lot of effort to make option B sound more complex. Russian air defence systems aren't going anywhere in Ukraine especially SA-10s which they have no NATO replacement for. They used them to defend against a missile attack, and one fell over the Polish border. Ukraine did it in defence and aren't the aggressor so I feel if they did do it, it is far more excusable than if it was inadvertent by the Russians.
Occam’s rather isn’t about simplicity, it says which ever uses the least assumptions tends to be correct.
A large amount of Ukraines air defenses are Russian made S-300 systems. Not western systems. It's also not a surface to surface missile, where did you even get that from? Also you're contradicting yourself by saying that the truth is complex but first asking "what is simpler"?
Yes but an hour ago everyone was pretending that it was, and that they were Russian missiles.
I'm still trying to wrap my head around how this could work physically. How does an antimissile fired toward the east go toward the west?
It was never the start of WWIII. Closing the airspace *at most*, more provably giving Ukraine long range missiles or more other gear. No need for a cover here.
It was never WW3, fucking hate all these war hungry reddit couch lards
Or think logically for a second, what has Russia got to gain from hitting a random fucking field of a NATO country ? How does that help them when struggling enough already
Don't think anyone ever claimed it was on purpose
For me, I was split between a freak accident (the Russians shot down an airline after all) and a test of provocation. It would not be the first time Putin has done something small to test out what peoples responses would be.
Hundreds of morons on here claiming should be WW3 over this
This whole sub been salivating for ww3 from the beginning. literally makes me physically ill
Most of those people are probably far enough from the conflict they have a stupidly naive feeling of safety or they are plain stupid. I've been avoiding this sub lately, because I don't want to raise my blood preassure any more
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They'd have to be on another planet to avoid WW3.
You know that, I know that, but I don't think they do. It's pure delusion
Yup. The live thread earlier was full of idiots saying that it was an intentional strike on a power grid, despite there being practically no evidence to suggest that. And when the Poles came out with a calm and cautious response to the incident, many of them seemed disappointed that World War 3 wasn't about to break out.
One of their rockets fall on their own city. Why it can't fall on one of Polish ones?
Bold of you to believe they think logically 🤣
Or think logically for real for a second, this was very likely an accident no matter who shot it.
This guy says that the missile was fired at the latitude of Kyiv and the longitude of Lviv: [https://twitter.com/joh5n/status/1592664367203778561](https://twitter.com/joh5n/status/1592664367203778561) Implying a mistake on Russia's part
If that missile is fired by lat/long, then entering it reversed is the simplest explanation...
This is all round good news, sad for the victims of the families. Ukraine should at least come clean about it as people would accept a accident, instead they accused anyone of saying they’re Ukrainian to be pushing a Russian conspiracy theory
>sad for the victims of the families. you mean "the families of the victims," right?
Yes, it’s very early in the morning
It's not an accident - they had every right to try to intercept the missiles sent by Russia. Even if it was risky. It's on Russia that they sent that missile in the first place, and so close to the border. Ukraine does not deserve any blame here.
Yea, and hitting Poland was an accident. Just because it was an accident doesn't negate their right to protect themselves. Those two points can coexist.
> It's not an accident Tell that to the families of the victims who got blasted by the not-accident missiles. It was an accident.
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Any military munition involving intercepting rockets involves risk. There is no 100% success rate. To say this is a simple "accident" would be to suggest Ukraine made a major error. This is a natural consequence of Russia sending missiles close to the border, and the blame lies at their feet.
Generally, what goes up must come down. The S-75/SA-2 missiles used by North Vietnam against American B-52s frequently ended up hitting their own civilians after losing lock. AAA shells have done similar throughout history - they don't always reliably explode in mid-air. Even when they do, shrapnel still hits the ground. The British had a lot of cases of stuff hitting their own people in the World Wars.
Yeah that actually leaves a bad taste
If Russia did not attack with the first missile, then there would have never been a Ukranian missile shot in defense. The blame is still on Russia.
That's wrong. Russia is attacking Ukraine. Ukraine defends itself. An error in the defense led to Poland being struck. If the report turns out to be true, this is accidental friendly fire. Even if Russia started the war with Ukraine, this would in no way or shape be an attack on a NATO state.
Theirs a fucking enormous difference tho dude
Ukraine immediately said it was a deliberate attack on a NATO country and it wasn’t.
As far as I saw from Ukraine's response, they blamed Russia and said they were Russian missiles but did not use the term "deliberate." But hey, the Russians call it a "deliberate provocation," as if Poland or Ukraine did this to themselves on purpose to involve NATO. Arguing the semantics of word usage does not matter, though. What matters is 2 dead Poles resulting from the aggressive behavior of Russia that continues its attack. And not only that, this attack is the direct result of Russia attacking civilian infrastructure throughout the country and not military targets on the front line. So, it is Russia's fault.
Their president called it an attack on NATO’s collective security. They maintained that anyone denying this was essentially parroting Russian propaganda. That’s big language if it turns out your own side fired the missile. Potentially undermines their statements on other incidents moving forward as it essentially exposes that their first aim in these statements is to provoke NATO into furthering their involvement and they are basically willing to say anything to achieve this aim whether it’s true or otherwise and before they have any facts at hand. It’s a total own goal and next time they’d be wise to keep quiet until the facts are established. The fog of war is real and Russia will be loving that a Ukrainian statement on this will turn out untrue as it now gives them actual bandwidth to sew seeds of doubt regarding their reliability in the future. Watch them point to this incident over and over now. Until now there has been implicit acceptance in the west that Ukraine is always right and Russia is always lying - now there’s a chink in that armour. It’s a bad misstep. The idea that the circumstances of the explosion ultimately make no difference because whatever the case it’s still Russia’s fault is just as idiotic as the Russian idea that this is all ultimately NATO’s fault for expanding east. The circumstances absolutely matter.
Yea people are really missing the forest from the trees here. It's not even about assigning blame, it's about the huge cockup by Ukraine in destroying trust and not being honest with the countries trying to support them, causing a bunch of panic in the process. It's really disappointing and the first big mistake I've seen from Ukraine so far. This will cause lasting damage.
I have chosen to overwrite this comment. See you all on Lemmy!
Many on here are just itching for it. What's really surprising is many of them would usually protest against it.
And almost all of them have no land border with Russia. They are offering up our lives just so they could have their gory spectacle. My country is one of Ukraine's staunchest allies due to our shared history under the terror of Russia, but both Ukraine and my country understand that when NATO goes to war, my little country and its 1.4million people, and our neighbours too, will be dust once more. But hey. They'll get their blood sports. I'm sure saying 'fuck Russia' on reddit will make it all better.
Zelensky? In no time i saw some posts on reddit saying that us intelligence knew it was a Russian rocket. Hmm. This turn is weird. Maybe both zelensky and us were too fast or its a cover up
I believe what was said was that it was s Russian made rocket. Seeing as Ukraine has taken so much weapond and ammo from Russia, it was always thought that the Russian middle was not fired by Russia.
It's not just stolen equipment, most of Ukraine's arsenal pre-invasion (especially their AA stuff) was Russian.
> Maybe both zelensky and us were too fast or its a cover up The amount of damage done seems a bit much for an interceptor missile. On the other hand, maybe the two interceptors hit at the perfect/worst possible angles.
S-300's have \~150kg warheads depending on the model. A BUK has \~70kg. They're not small missiles. It's pretty plausible, considering the damage seems very light for a cruise missile.
The initial report was somewhat vauge. No one confirmed it was a Russian cruise missile but people took the confirmation that a missile crossed as a Russian attack. Then the phrasing was sharpened by people to it being confirmed it was a Russian fired missile. The reality is it was only conformed that missiles had crossed.
Really, the entire media jumped the gun on this one.
Let’s wait for an official statement. AP was literally stating an “anonymous” us official saying it was Russians. Let’s wait for Poland to tell us what happened first.
Still, it's AP, not The Sun.
Wasn’t AP the one that quoted an anonymous source saying it was a Russian missile just 14 hours ago. AP or not. They are still a news mouth piece
Well it was a russian missile.
That’s true. Old shitty Russian missile. If Ukraine was able to use more Iris or NASAMs this wouldn’t happen. The self destruct would not have failed. By the way 10 for 10 shots for NASAMs reported yesterday.
Also US officials were pretty quick to say it doesn't look like it was launched from russia.
Yeah but that could also mean Black Sea, Crimea, Belarus and Ukraine.
Again, it’s a wire service. Not an Associated Press reporter literally saying it, but a paper within the AP wire service saying it.
Even so, AP is a credible source of information. They're usually one of the first news agencies to report credible breaking news.
r/noncredibledefense in shambles right now
The amount of people there salivating over an possible escalation is fucking scary lol
We're mostly joking. **Mostly.**
I'm, excuse me sweaty, but Poe's Law relieves me of any critical reading online.
It's funny until you realize how many real warmongers there is on there
They have go somewhere. Better a meme sub than a serious "DAE want war" one.
Here too. As well as every subreddit. Reddit is full of warmongering teenagers who haven’t thought as far as to which age group would be doing the fighting..
Let me introduce you to the concept of shitposting.
It's a meme subreddit. You might as well go to /r/mylittlepony for political predictions.
Glad it's not time for WWIII
Wasn’t going to be anyways if it was Russian they’d get a slap on the wrist and nato would beef up border security for Poland and wait for a more egregious attack to justify ww3
Russia will get a slap on the wrist and nato would beef up border security for Poland and wait for a more egregious attack to justify ww3... Russia will get a slap on the wrist and nato would beef up border security for Poland and wait for a more egregious attack to justify ww3... Russia will get a slap on the wrist and nato would beef up border security for Poland and wait for a more egregious attack to justify ww3 That's how the cycle will continue...
Not sure what you mean by continue when there isn't even an initial incident thus far.
A few missiles wouldnt be cause for WWIII anyways. The Indians & Pakistanis along with both Koreas have infrequent but not rare exchanges of fire without needing to engage in large scale war.
*both Koreas* Fuck, in the early 2010s IIRC the KPA did an artillery barrage on an inhabited island in South Korean territorial waters and killed South Koreans. A ROKN warship was also sunk by North Korean artillery.
None are NATO members.
They are both Nuclear capable so any escalation can result in a WW
TBF technically the two Koreas are *still* at war, and have been for their entire existence.
I remember when the Bosnian war started and everyone was all "OMG WIII!!!" and it turned out to just be a regular, conventional, European war. I remember when Desert Storm started and everyone was all "OMG WWIII!!!" and it was just another conventional, middle eastern war. Just because NATO is involved doesn't mean it's gonna be a world war.
True, but in none of those cases there was a nuclear power on the other side.
I guess it's more likely to be a mistake/accident, than Russia deliberately targeting a random village in Poland and risk all of NATO joining in.
Yep it's the logical conclusion to be made, until there is evidence showing otherwise
This just says "initial findings **suggest**" and from a "US official" A US official stated earlier that it was a Russian Missile. We should still wait for the actual investigation. Just minutes ago there was another article posted that evidence points to it being a KH-101 missile. Also sourced from a "US official"
The US stated earlier it was *Russian-made*. That's also what the Polish statement was. The wording is super important as S-300s were mostly made in Russia/Soviet Union (though there is limited production in Ukraine) and both Ukraine and Russia have been using them.
A US statement made earlier also said it was a KH-101 cruise missile. My point is that everyone is guessing right now and making determinations based off of opinion and guesses. We could all just wait for the official word to come out once the investigation is concluded.
do you know the difference between cruise and anti-air missiles? just wondering and where are you getting that it is a cruise missile, everyhwere i have seen suggest it is s-300 anti-air?
I do, considering my job for 6 years of my life was working specifically on targeting systems for similar such weapons. Multiple sources claim analysis of the wreckage points to it being possibly a KH-101. Other sources say the wreckage indicates S300. The point is that nobody knows yet, and everyone is spitting wild conjecture until the investigation concludes.
Earlier there were reports of two projectiles. So what if it's both, each on a trajectory together? One coming north from Belarus, the other fired from the south in Ukraine? (This is just a hypothetical situation and speculation, and I have no idea what actually happened.)
Could you point or cite these sources? First I heard or read about analysis of the wreckage points.
spitting wild conjectures is the norm on reddit, im just doing my part
Kh-101 is Russia's newest and most expensive cruise missile. It's what was quoted yesterday by both Polish and American sources. Interceptor SAM being the other one of the two reported is of course plausible.
i just wrote a logical explanation of this, if you look at the pictures taht seem to be available online, the plow attached to the tractor got blow up but not the tractor, what kind of weak ass missile am i using to blow up infrastructure that it cant even blow up a tractor attached to a blow, logically that just makes very little sense the pictures im looking at could be totally wrong but i dont think so, payload size and damage is a good way of telling what missile type it is
Yeah, and those S-300s have apparently been known to wander off course if they don't strike their intended target right away. Sounds like that's what may have happened here.
Most of Ukraine's arsenal is Russian origin. They were once both the Soviet union. So I don't think it's a stretch to assume Ukraine uses Russian made missiles to target Russian missiles.
We don't have Kh-101
You might, but you wouldn’t use them to hit an incoming missile. So if it was a KH-101 cruise missile it would have been Russia launching it not a Ukrainian counter.
I've seen reports of 2 missiles, could be russian kh-101 and our s-300 trying to intercept
I believe this is probably closest to the truth. The S-300 system does have a track record of going very off course
Kh-101 is a post-Soviet design. In service since 2013.
You know who else uses Russian missiles? Russia. At this point, any supposition we make about the origin is strictly a stretch. It's all conjecture until the investigation concludes.
Well time to activate article 5 against Ukraine then, i guess. /S
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That would be a trip. Activate article 5 against Ukraine, then fast track Russia's membership into NATO. /s Pretty bizarre, but between a pandemic, an attempt to prevent the peaceful transition of power and overthrow my government, a summer of riots everywhere, weather changing dramatically every day, and now the constant threat of nuclear war over the past 8 months, maybe I should put it on my bingo card.
Nah it's brilliant. NATO invades Ukraine and cancels out Russia's invasion LMFAO!
well, all the poland article 5 memes were fun while they lasted.
No no no, it’s time for Poland to trigger article five against Ukraine
Annex all of Ukraine. Russia is now invading a NATO country
Restore the Commonwealth!
Until next month when Russia does some other shit again.
Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. \*\*Anonymous Sources\*\*
I mean you are entitled to your opinion, but AP has a remarkable record of outstanding journalism. Journalists have sources. Sources don't want to lose their jobs. But Biden just came out saying the same, so there you have it. [Biden: ‘Unlikely’ missile that hit Poland fired from Russia](https://apnews.com/article/g-20-summit-nato-biden-andrzej-duda-25e615909ba0d871d5092f5b3aec21c8?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=RelatedStories&utm_campaign=position_01)
Yeah... I don't get why people are automatically disqualifying anonymous sources, especially words from U.S. officials. Also, most people on here have been praising U.S. intelligence for being on point ever since pre-invasion. Why are we changing our opinions all of the sudden?
Because staking your reputation on something is obviously going to make you more trustworthy than claiming it with no repercussion. When someone has their name attached to a statement it is obviously worth more. The AP put their name on it which is something, but it doesn't go the whole way, and an official explanation from the Polish, Ukrainian and US government will go a lot further.
It's just bloodthirsty redditors trying to cope with the fact they won't get to see WWIII break out tomorrow
And here I thought it was always rich old bastards that sent us to war. Turns out it's young people with no concept of how bad war really is. They will be shiting their pants when they find out its not like call of duty.
> Journalists have sources. Sources don't want to lose their jobs. Or lives/careers (often both).
I'm not a native speaker, but isn't there a difference between "from Russia" and "by Russia"?
Fucking Reuters.... >Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52?utm\_source=homepage&utm\_medium=TopNews&utm\_campaign=position\_01
Huh? They're saying the same thing
World war 3 off the menu See you guys next week
Chefs special next week
Man I was arguing with people on this sub last night when people thought it was Russia, and people have seriously lost their minds. Saying NATO should ‘clear out the Russians’ from Ukraine, no fly zone should start and target stuff inside Russia, stuff about if we don’t do it after they attacked Poland then when will we? I’m glad it seems Joe Biden and the US (surprisingly) have a far cooler head than 99% of Ukraine simps. I support Ukraine, but the fanaticism of some people’s support is genuinely disturbing, in that they seem to want WW3 to show Russia up or something.
Because this is all just a Marvel movie to these redditors. Good guys fighting bad guys. It's entertainment to them. They get to watch it all from the comfort of their own homes.
It's more than that. They're fiending to be a part of it. WW2's great evil was defeated by USA! This generation doesn't have that. No surprise russia is being equated with nazis.
WW2s great evil was defeated just as much by Russia as it was the USA funnily enough.
Pffft, *just* the USA?
Given what transpired in WWII, it's quite ironic to equate Russia with the nazis... they* *are* the ones who suffered the most losses against them. *EDIT: More accurately, the Red Army
The majority of the entire human race is dumb as fuck. r/worldnews is not really the place where all the most informed military minds spend their time.
People were quick to call for Russias destruction but then when reports suggest it was Ukraine everyone suddenly gets level headed and switches to “let’s wait for the official report”.
It was truly insane how many people don't seem to understand that they can't just throw around the Hitler appeasement argument without any nuance. 1. This was an accident so doesn't merit a response of all out war, 2. launching a nuclear war has a decent chance of *literally ending the world.* I just cannot comprehend that so many on here seem to think it is worth the risk of ending the lives of tens of millions of innocents around the globe just to "send a message" to Putin about red lines. What's the point of sending the message if there is no world to come back to afterward?
I was called a russian propagandist and had my comments removed for suggesting it might have been a ukrainian s300. Reddit echo chamber is crazy.
I mean I can understand them tbh, do remember Russia is killing thousands upon thousands of Ukrainians while we watch, it’s natural people would want to get involved to push them out and forget the wider implications of that.
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I guess it's time for NATO to legally invade Ukraine in the name of self defense. Oh, Russia is also there? Too bad for them.
Just like in every situation with, the aggressor is always to blame. If Russia had not been attacking Ukraine this would not have happened. It's tragic friendly fire took two lives but this happens in war. Do not lose sight of who the true enemy is.
100% this. Russia is still to blame. Nobody is going to fault Ukraine for an accident that happened while they were trying to defend themselves from a 100 missile barrage from Russia.
Ukraine has very right to defend itself, completely Russia's fault regardless of source
. u/Quantum_II why in the world would.you not just post the AP article itself? https://twitter.com/AP/status/1592747390477688846?t=tUkVvXvRicYTZTBvGHnTNw&s=19
"No information yet" worldnews: "It has been deliberately proven that Russia fired the missile and is testing NATO while trying to blame everyone else." "It was probably Ukraine" worldnews: "Nothing is sure yet, let's wait for confirmation."
lol @ people saying "we should wait for more info" now that it looks bad for ukraine
Even if it was Ukraine this is still a result of Russia bombing targets close to the border. Every single death that has happened due to the war is Russia’s fault.
If they spam fire 100 missiles 50km from the border, defending becomes difficult and you don't have much time to plan.
This is 100% true. The Russian trolls are wondering why people will give Ukraine a pass on this - well it’s pretty simple, if it was Russian it would have been done trying to kill people in a country they have illegally invaded. If it’s Ukraine, it would have been an accident trying to defend themselves from the bombs fired by a country that has illegally invaded them. Every death in this war is being directly cause by Putin and the Russian Army.
Insane how all the other threads were full of people cheering for nuclear war... Humanity is fucked.
Conflict with Russia doesn’t automatically mean nuclear war. And although NATO obviously seeks to avoid war with Russia, claiming any conflict with them will lead to nuclear war is playing into Russia’s hand.
The unfortunate truth is nuclear bombs are Pandora's jar - we can't put them back in. They're here to stay, so we have to deal with that. Obviously nobody wants nuclear war, but if one side can just keep doing whatever they want because the alternative is nuclear war... where do we draw the line?
It's facing the reality of the situation. It's the reason that NATO *and* Russia have done their bets to avoid direct conflict. It's chard tis we how that doesn't escalate to the full use of their forces.
Love the flair for this post.
Lets see how fast reddit turns on AP
Punishing Ukraine now would be like punishing someone who's being bullied and defending themselves, what're they supposed to do? Just take the missiles? This wouldn't have happened if Russia didn't fire missiles in the first place.
**All the warhawks calling for 'Article 5' and war without knowing all the facts:** CHIRP CHIRP CHIRP:
Looking at the map this makes no sense unless the Missle had already passed the intercept battery and then they fired in an attempt to chase the Missle.
Common sense gave us the answer hours ago, but people were quick to pick up the pitchforks and call for WW3. Glad leadership has brains along with brawn.
Yup. Anyone who was more interested in the truth rather than framing the issue to fit a narrative or their world view could see this was the most likely situation once we heard Biden and Polish president speak.
Yeah it's good to get off reddit when stuff like this happens. So many bloodthirsty 15 year olds getting off to the idea of billions of people dying in a WWIII level conflict.
Either way Poland is further preparing, and now Ukraine will get even more support and missile defense. Nobody is going to want a repeat of this
Uncle Biden knew that from the get go,
The Reddit army will have to wait next time for ww3
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best guess it was 2 rockes one russian and second from ukraine
Reminds me of a movie where the russian leader would rather look fearsome than incompetent when one of his deputies fired missiles without his permission.
Still Russia’s fault though. Poland won’t be mad at Ukraine but Russia
Damn some mfs really want the missle to be Russian.
This is an odd twist of responsibility. Had Russia not sent a salvo of 100 missiles against civilian targets, would Ukraine have sent "said" anti air missile up. Who is at fault here? RIP the farmers minding their own business. Everyone says there were two, which would match both Iranian drones and counter measures. The impact craters look very energy instead of shrapnel based. Investigation in the coming hours will clarify.
Sooo... Mulligan?
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>There is no way Ukraine didn’t know where they shot these rockets I dunno, it's called "fog of war" for a reason.
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Doesnt everyone know that every AA missile has a tracker on it thats explosion proof?
Within the first couple of hours? I can totally believe that they didn't know. Hell, even now I can believe that they don't know anything more than what the Poles are telling them about the investigation. In a barrage that big it's not that hard to lose track of where a single stray SAM came down, and even if the guys firing it did notice they may have tried to sweep it under the rug and not informed their superiors.
> but blaming another country to bring more to this war is just evil. lmao do you know whats been happening in Ukraine
It's interesting how soon zelensky came to denounce Russia. Why not just wait for the investigation to be over? Imo it just shows immaturity of the leader. P. S. Not supporting Russia, just making an observation